:00:40. > :00:50.Iain Duncan Smith follows up his resignation with a blistering
:00:51. > :00:53.attack on George Osborne, saying some of the Chancellor's
:00:54. > :00:56.budget measures are deeply unfair and damaging to the country.
:00:57. > :01:00.It's being seen as a direct attack on Chancellor Osborne -
:01:01. > :01:03.are his leadership hopes now holed below the waterline?
:01:04. > :01:07.And with ministers now close to civil war over IDS's resignation,
:01:08. > :01:09.And coming up here: With the Easter Rising
:01:10. > :01:12.commemorations just one week away, I'll be asking the Justice Minister
:01:13. > :01:17.for his assessment of the legacy of the rebellion 100 years on.
:01:18. > :01:22.But with questions over who pays, is the
:01:23. > :01:31.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:32. > :01:35.panel in the business - Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:36. > :01:39.and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:40. > :01:44.So, George Osborne unveiled a Budget which he hoped
:01:45. > :01:47.would satisfy the Tory faithful, generate a feel-good factor
:01:48. > :01:51.in the run up to the EU referendum and enhance his own leadership
:01:52. > :01:57.That strategy started to come off the rails within 24 hours
:01:58. > :02:00.as the Chancellor faced Tory revolts on four fronts.
:02:01. > :02:02.And was blown to smithereens on Friday night when welfare
:02:03. > :02:05.secretary Iain Duncan Smith resigned over savings to disability payments.
:02:06. > :02:08.This morning open warfare is breaking out
:02:09. > :02:19.We'll be devoting the next half hour to this story,
:02:20. > :02:22.with analysis and comment from Nick, Isabel and Janan and interviews
:02:23. > :02:26.with the shadow work and pensions secretary Owen Smith,
:02:27. > :02:29.the Conservative backbencher Heidi Allen, and the head
:02:30. > :02:31.of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson.
:02:32. > :02:35.First, Giles Dilnot reports on the very public falling out
:02:36. > :02:38.at the top of David Cameron's government.
:02:39. > :02:43.When the Chancellor gets badly hurt in an attack from his own side,
:02:44. > :02:49.we shouldn't be surprised where it came
:02:50. > :02:53.Iain Duncan Smith and George Osborne whenever was buddies
:02:54. > :02:57.and they are on the opposite sides of the EU
:02:58. > :03:04.But for nearly six years, they've worked together
:03:05. > :03:07.in government, delivering welfare reform and savings.
:03:08. > :03:09.Last July, when the Chancellor announced the living
:03:10. > :03:14.Those currently on the minimum wage will see that pay rise
:03:15. > :03:22.And whilst in polling, there was popular support
:03:23. > :03:29.for balancing the books and reforming welfare,
:03:30. > :03:32.there was also angry protest, especially from disabled people,
:03:33. > :03:34.who passionately believed they had been targeted
:03:35. > :03:38.The deepest wound a Work and Pensions
:03:39. > :03:41.Secretary could inflict on his own governments,
:03:42. > :03:53.On Wednesday we were touted a budget that would be dull,
:03:54. > :03:57.Nonetheless, the Chancellor and wannabe PM was
:03:58. > :04:00.The richest 1% pay 28% of all income tax revenue,
:04:01. > :04:08.a higher proportion than in any single year
:04:09. > :04:22.But not so for many disabled people and enough Tory MPs,
:04:23. > :04:27.of State for Work and Pensions, set out changes that will ensure
:04:28. > :04:30.that within the rising disability budget, support is better
:04:31. > :04:37.It was a confirmation of changes that just 48 hours later would see
:04:38. > :04:39.a resignation letter from the man the Chancellor was referring to,
:04:40. > :04:43.questioning if enough is being done to ensure
:04:44. > :04:50.These were changes to personal independence payments that have
:04:51. > :04:54.replaced disability living allowance, that would make it more
:04:55. > :04:57.likely large numbers of recipients got less money,
:04:58. > :05:08.and in some cases much less, in future.
:05:09. > :05:11.Something he regarded as a compromise too far.
:05:12. > :05:13.According to Mr Duncan Smith, the changes had demanded because too
:05:14. > :05:14.much emphasis on money-saving exercises and that his welfare
:05:15. > :05:16.to work reforms could not be repeatedly
:05:17. > :05:22.By this weekend, the government's unofficial paramedic
:05:23. > :05:23.was dispatched to patch up the internal wounds,
:05:24. > :05:37.Mr Duncan Smith's literary cuts had inflicted.
:05:38. > :05:42.by the whole Cabinet on Wednesday morning before the Chancellor
:05:43. > :05:46.And he was obviously part of that process.
:05:47. > :05:48.These proposals came from his department.
:05:49. > :05:54.And the PM's response to the letter stressed...
:05:55. > :05:56.In the hours after the budget, amid angry
:05:57. > :05:58.rumblings from the backbenches, suddenly the government
:05:59. > :06:02.where describing and announced policy
:06:03. > :06:05.Something that has been put forward, there has been a review,
:06:06. > :06:10.And the suggestion the next day from the PM
:06:11. > :06:15.We are going to discuss what we put forward
:06:16. > :06:18.with the disability charities and others, as the Chancellor said
:06:19. > :06:26.It is important this increase in money
:06:27. > :06:29.goes to the people who need it the most.
:06:30. > :06:31.The problem is, the internal party concerns were that it looked
:06:32. > :06:33.like money was going to those that didn't need it most.
:06:34. > :06:35.The headline rate of capital gains tax currently stands at 28%.
:06:36. > :06:40.I am cutting the capital gains tax paid by basic rate
:06:41. > :06:45.Iain Duncan Smith said the disability
:06:46. > :06:46.reforms couldn't be defended within a budget that benefits
:06:47. > :06:54.I'm told this was the most toxic aspect for a large number
:06:55. > :06:59.And that he was not the only conservative in government
:07:00. > :07:01.who'd considered resignation over this.
:07:02. > :07:03.But not everyone was sorry to see him go.
:07:04. > :07:10.The problems have been at the heart of the DWP.
:07:11. > :07:13.I do not see eye to eye with the Treasury,
:07:14. > :07:17.I'm not the Chancellor's biggest supporter,
:07:18. > :07:20.shall we say, but the reality is, in all the experiences I've had,
:07:21. > :07:22.the problems have been with an evangelical point of view,
:07:23. > :07:27.They have consistently failed disabled people
:07:28. > :07:32.As Stephen Crabb takes on work and pensions,
:07:33. > :07:40.But clearly the quiet man reflected if
:07:41. > :07:42.you're going to turn up the volume at all,
:07:43. > :07:44.best rattle the windows of Downing Street.
:07:45. > :07:48.A war of words has now broken out in Iain Duncan Smith's
:07:49. > :07:51.old department, with one junior minister accusing him
:07:52. > :07:53.of "shocking" behaviour, but three other ministers rounding
:07:54. > :07:58.Mr Duncan Smith gave his first post-resignation interview to Andrew
:07:59. > :08:04.Anybody who thinks this is a here today, gone tomorrow
:08:05. > :08:15.I am genuinely frustrated, I have no personal ambitions. If I never go
:08:16. > :08:20.back into government again, I will not cry about that, it is not my
:08:21. > :08:24.ambition. I came into this government, and let me be clear, I
:08:25. > :08:31.came into this government because I cared about welfare reform. I spent
:08:32. > :08:34.eight years in social justice trying to figure out why certain
:08:35. > :08:38.communities were so badly off and how could we get them back to work
:08:39. > :08:43.and solve that one. Everything I have done has been driven by my
:08:44. > :08:47.desire to improve the quality of life for the worst. We can debate my
:08:48. > :08:55.policies, but my motivation has always been a bad back. My motive
:08:56. > :09:01.now, I am concerned that I want to succeed and it cannot do the things
:09:02. > :09:03.it should because it is too focused on narrowly getting the deficit down
:09:04. > :09:18.without saying where it should for. Minutes later the energy
:09:19. > :09:20.secretary Amber Rudd, popped up to attack her former
:09:21. > :09:23.cabinet colleague - saying she resents Mr Duncan Smith's
:09:24. > :09:34."high moral tone". I do remain perplexed. It indicated
:09:35. > :09:38.he was making progress. He wrote a letter on Thursday night saying what
:09:39. > :09:45.he was doing and why we should support it. So I don't understand. I
:09:46. > :09:50.do remain perplexed about it, but I am disappointed. This is an man I
:09:51. > :09:55.sat a cabinet with for nearly a year. He was a cabinet minister for
:09:56. > :10:02.nearly six years. I do respect him, so to suddenly launch a bombshell on
:10:03. > :10:11.the rest of us in a way that is difficult for us all to understand,
:10:12. > :10:20.is disappointing. It is the Tory party now in open welfare and it is
:10:21. > :10:24.not easily quelled? If Amber Rudd is perplexed, it is a dereliction of
:10:25. > :10:29.duty on her part to understand what has been going on in her own
:10:30. > :10:32.Administration. In a way, there is nothing sudden about this for Iain
:10:33. > :10:38.Duncan Smith, it has been brewing for a long time. She has known that.
:10:39. > :10:42.He has been rustling for a long time whether he can do better, staying
:10:43. > :10:47.where he is and operating within the difficult constraints the Treasury
:10:48. > :10:51.has imposed on him. Or whether he is better off out and saying what he
:10:52. > :10:56.really thinks. That is what tipped him over the edge. The Downing
:10:57. > :11:01.Street strategy is to paint Iain Duncan Smith as a kind of,
:11:02. > :11:05.head-banging Eurosceptic and try to pretend it is all about the EU
:11:06. > :11:08.referendum. I don't think anyone who watched Iain Duncan Smith this
:11:09. > :11:14.morning giving that powerful interview to Andrew Marr, could
:11:15. > :11:18.really doubt that what this is about is Iain Duncan Smith's real desire
:11:19. > :11:27.to do the right thing by the disadvantaged. The rest is just
:11:28. > :11:31.noises off. When you look at some of these clips come he comes out
:11:32. > :11:39.against the welfare cap, to arbitrate. If you are sitting in the
:11:40. > :11:43.Labour Party right now, you will be cutting up that interview and
:11:44. > :11:49.pouring it out at every opportunity. This story will go on and on? I
:11:50. > :11:54.interviewed Iain Duncan Smith about two months after the 2010 election.
:11:55. > :11:59.He said if George Osborne wants me to be a cheese parer and do
:12:00. > :12:04.arbitrate cuts, I will be out. Isabel says commie has been rustling
:12:05. > :12:10.for six years with this. He came into this after the visit to the
:12:11. > :12:14.Easterhouse estate in Glasgow. He had in Europe and championed the
:12:15. > :12:16.vulnerable. He came to it with a mission to try and increase
:12:17. > :12:21.incentives for the low paid combat to work. To George Osborne,
:12:22. > :12:27.it is the bottom line. But it is combat to work. To George Osborne,
:12:28. > :12:28.going to go away, you have the extraordinary spectacle of three
:12:29. > :12:31.going to go away, you have the pretty Patel included, putting out
:12:32. > :12:37.statements in pretty Patel included, putting out
:12:38. > :12:40.Duncan Smith. And you have the pensions minister delivering a
:12:41. > :12:42.Downing Street script saying this is about Europe, even though there is
:12:43. > :12:48.not a word about Europe in Iain Duncan Smith's statement. Ross
:12:49. > :12:52.Altman, who was unhappy with Downing Street and the Treasury on the
:12:53. > :12:56.pension changes coming out and delivering what Downing Street one.
:12:57. > :13:00.It is a mess and it shows the normal discipline you would expect in
:13:01. > :13:07.government really is a challenge but the referendum. It is over the
:13:08. > :13:11.George Osborne? If wasn't on the budget. Tax credits last summer,
:13:12. > :13:16.reversal on pension reforms this year. And now this, you cannot
:13:17. > :13:19.deliver but on Wednesday which is just a proposition by Thursday
:13:20. > :13:22.evening and by Friday evening provokes a senior Cabinet colleagues
:13:23. > :13:43.resignation. It is bad for him. stun them month after a general
:13:44. > :13:45.election Monday, ... And start with them all going in different ways
:13:46. > :13:52.during the referendum, it could get worse. They need this referendum out
:13:53. > :13:56.of the way as quickly as possible. They
:13:57. > :14:01.of the way as quickly as possible. would suggest, with the remaining
:14:02. > :14:05.of the way as quickly as possible. this. In four years' time, at a
:14:06. > :14:10.general election will this. In four years' time, at a
:14:11. > :14:13.George Osborne's leadership chances? Quite possibly.
:14:14. > :14:14.George Osborne's leadership chances? Chancellor will put this back
:14:15. > :14:17.together again Chancellor will put this back
:14:18. > :14:18.campaign. It might not just Chancellor will put this back
:14:19. > :14:24.Osborne's future on the line, it Chancellor will put this back
:14:25. > :14:31.could be the Prime Minister's the Chancellor's fate if tied
:14:32. > :14:34.could be the Prime Minister's the to make the Conservatives
:14:35. > :14:34.could be the Prime Minister's the again. It George Osborne goes down,
:14:35. > :14:39.David Cameron's position is again. It George Osborne goes down,
:14:40. > :14:52.And don't forget Cameron has never at this point,
:14:53. > :14:53.ever, he ain't controlling it. As we know, these things have a life of
:14:54. > :15:02.their own, so it should keep us Iain Duncan Smith's resignation has
:15:03. > :15:05.been simmering for some time but it was triggered by plans
:15:06. > :15:11.to make cuts to disability benefits A few days before George Osborne's
:15:12. > :15:13.budget, the government previewed plans to change the way claimants
:15:14. > :15:20.were assessed for certain disability benefits, saving ?1.3 billion a
:15:21. > :15:26.year. The office of budgetary responsibility said the changes to
:15:27. > :15:32.the personal independence payments, or Pips, would adversely affect
:15:33. > :15:38.370,000 people by 2020. The amount of Paire pick a person receives is
:15:39. > :15:46.decided by awarding points based on need -- the amount of PIP. Grab
:15:47. > :15:50.rails, personal toilet seats, arguing people would audit have
:15:51. > :15:58.these items. Iain Duncan Smith resigned, saying the changes were
:15:59. > :16:01.not responsible. Replying to the resignation, the Prime Minister said
:16:02. > :16:06.it had now been agreed not to proceed with the policies in their
:16:07. > :16:09.current form. But that wasn't the only major criticism levelled at
:16:10. > :16:12.George Osborne's budget. The Chancellor confirmed he will miss
:16:13. > :16:18.Fiorentina of his three fiscal rules. Next financial year, welfare
:16:19. > :16:25.bill cost almost ?120 billion, well over the cap of ?115 billion, which
:16:26. > :16:28.he introduced himself to restrict overall welfare spending. And he
:16:29. > :16:32.also broke his debt rule, which promised that national debt would
:16:33. > :16:37.decline every year as a proportion of national income. This financial
:16:38. > :16:43.year, total debt is expected to be 83.7% of GDP, up from 83.3% in
:16:44. > :16:46.2014-15. We did ask the Government for
:16:47. > :16:48.an interview about the disability But we were told no
:16:49. > :16:51.one was available. It's a familiar refrain these days,
:16:52. > :16:54.especially when the government I'm joined now by the head
:16:55. > :17:06.of the Institute for Welcome to the programme. It looks
:17:07. > :17:11.like the government is making a U-turn on these cuts to disability
:17:12. > :17:16.payments, how big a haul does that blow in the Chancellor's efforts to
:17:17. > :17:20.get a budget surplus by 2020? The truth is we are talking very small
:17:21. > :17:25.numbers in the context of ?800 billion a year or so of spending.
:17:26. > :17:28.The Chancellor is aiming for nearly a billion pound surplus, he doesn't
:17:29. > :17:32.get this, it takes just down to under ten, so in that sense it
:17:33. > :17:38.doesn't matter all that much to his target the 2020. But he has already
:17:39. > :17:42.inked in 3.5 billion of unspecified cuts, we don't know what they would
:17:43. > :17:46.be to get this surplus, but there are about eight or 9 billion of
:17:47. > :17:49.watch some might call jiggery-pokery, cuts to public
:17:50. > :17:56.investment in the final year, and now this. It must make it more
:17:57. > :18:05.difficult for them. There are all sorts of things in the budget aimed
:18:06. > :18:08.at that particular year. Numbers are being moved around and there are
:18:09. > :18:13.some unspecified spending cuts. It is important to see this in the
:18:14. > :18:18.broader context. Unless something awful happens, we will get close to
:18:19. > :18:24.a budget balance in 2019-20, which given that we were over 150 billion
:18:25. > :18:28.in deficit in 2010, the biggest deficit in his time that we have
:18:29. > :18:30.had, to get from their too close to surplus will be quite an
:18:31. > :18:36.achievement. Economically and politically understand it matters
:18:37. > :18:40.enormously, but economically, the difference between a ?10 billion
:18:41. > :18:41.surplus and the deficit is almost hear the dash-mac when neither here
:18:42. > :18:55.nor there. The Treasury would expect that
:18:56. > :18:58.department to find ?1.3 billion elsewhere, is that right? Not
:18:59. > :19:05.necessarily, this is unlike the health budget or the education
:19:06. > :19:12.budget, it is determined by the demands on the budget. So I think if
:19:13. > :19:15.they don't put these changes in, the presumption will be at least that
:19:16. > :19:19.the spending will still be in the budget. The day after the budget,
:19:20. > :19:25.you said the Chancellor had only a 50-50 chance of filling his surplus
:19:26. > :19:31.in 2020. Would you like to recalibrate these odds? It is a
:19:32. > :19:36.relatively small change in the context of where we are, still a
:19:37. > :19:39.50-50 shot. The thing that will determine it is much less changes of
:19:40. > :19:43.this kind and parsley more what happens to the economy, whether the
:19:44. > :19:47.economy does better or worse than currently expected. In many ways,
:19:48. > :19:53.the most important thing we learned on Wednesday is that the O BR has
:19:54. > :19:56.much less optimistic about the economy, and therefore we will all
:19:57. > :20:02.be worse off than we thought we were going to be. The Treasury, as Iain
:20:03. > :20:08.Duncan Smith has been saying, has been clawing away at working age
:20:09. > :20:14.benefits the years, for him this was the final straw. But isn't that
:20:15. > :20:18.inevitable, if you have a government who ring fences pensions and the
:20:19. > :20:21.NHS, the only big travel figure spending line is welfare? If you are
:20:22. > :20:26.looking, like the government has been common to really dramatically
:20:27. > :20:32.reduce the deficit significantly, you are not going to avoid doing
:20:33. > :20:36.things on the welfare side. Much more than ?100 billion was spent on
:20:37. > :20:40.just working age welfare, covered by that welfare cap, which is far more
:20:41. > :20:43.than we spend on almost anything else, apart from health service and
:20:44. > :20:52.pensions. But the Chancellor has created this fiscal position. Even
:20:53. > :20:56.though it was weaker, he cut business rates, he cut corporation
:20:57. > :21:00.tax, capital gains tax, he raised the personal allowance, and he
:21:01. > :21:05.raised 40p income tax threshold. He didn't have to do any of that. Even
:21:06. > :21:09.if he had done only some of that, he would not have had to look for these
:21:10. > :21:13.cuts in disability for study has made that himself will stop you are
:21:14. > :21:17.right, she didn't have to make any of those changes, but it was very
:21:18. > :21:21.clearly in the Conservative manifesto to increase the personal
:21:22. > :21:24.allowance. So presuming that he would have kept the manifesto
:21:25. > :21:28.changes, he would have had to have done that, and has to do quite a lot
:21:29. > :21:32.more route. Cutting those taxes clearly means you have to do some
:21:33. > :21:38.other things to maintain his target. But he didn't have to do them. Also,
:21:39. > :21:42.perhaps his leadership tensions did play a part. There were two major
:21:43. > :21:48.areas where they could have raised a lot of money, pension reform, by
:21:49. > :21:51.taking away the top tax-free, which could have saved billions, and
:21:52. > :21:55.raising the fuel duty. If you don't visit now, when will you? Both could
:21:56. > :21:59.have raised billions and he chose not to do it. Those are two very
:22:00. > :22:04.different kinds of things. Yes, you are right, it is astonishing with
:22:05. > :22:09.petrol prices at their lowest level for a very long time, chatty on
:22:10. > :22:13.petrol at its lowest level since the mid-19 90s, the cost of driving a
:22:14. > :22:17.car at its lowest level for perhaps 30 years. If you can't increase fuel
:22:18. > :22:21.duties even then, that is a long-term problem for the Treasury,
:22:22. > :22:24.because it brings in a lot of money, ?30 billion a year, and if that goes
:22:25. > :22:30.it is a real problem. On pension tax will if it is a much more complex
:22:31. > :22:34.issue. There are good economic arguments, for maintaining it as we
:22:35. > :22:37.have at the moment, and had you got rid of that 40% relief, you would
:22:38. > :22:42.have hit the 5 million or so people who pay 40% tax, it would have been
:22:43. > :22:49.another slice of the population rather unhappy. The national debt,
:22:50. > :22:56.not the deficit, will be 1.7 4 trillion by 20 20. If the government
:22:57. > :23:00.was then to run a surplus of say 10 billion a year for ten years, which
:23:01. > :23:05.would be unprecedented in British government, after a decade, the debt
:23:06. > :23:11.would still, by my simple rhythmic calculation, the ?1.64 trillion. Is
:23:12. > :23:18.that what you mean by economically irrelevant in running a surplus? The
:23:19. > :23:22.key point about the size of the debt is it is size as a fraction of
:23:23. > :23:31.national income. More important than the absolute level. As the -- even
:23:32. > :23:34.running a surplus of 10 billion or so a year, you don't get too
:23:35. > :23:40.prerecession levels of debt until the mid 2030s. The argument the
:23:41. > :23:51.Chancellor would make the running a surplus year after year is that even
:23:52. > :23:51.if you just run a balanced budget, it takes
:23:52. > :24:05.Owen Smith, in his resignation undo the damage that the crisis
:24:06. > :24:12.Owen Smith, in his resignation letter, Iain Duncan Smith
:24:13. > :24:18.Owen Smith, in his resignation protection of pensions. Do you agree
:24:19. > :24:21.with that? I don't think that should be the first thing
:24:22. > :24:22.with that? I don't think that should all, Andrew. I think the very clear
:24:23. > :24:25.message that Iain Duncan all, Andrew. I think the very clear
:24:26. > :24:29.himself has delivered is their word choices that could have been made in
:24:30. > :24:32.the budget, and the Chancellor made them and he made the wrong ones
:24:33. > :24:37.coming chose to cut the benefits from disabled people. As we have
:24:38. > :24:41.heard, the PIP cuts taking many thousands of pounds away from the
:24:42. > :24:48.370,000 people, and instead he chose that he was going to cut corporation
:24:49. > :24:50.tax, which he -- is going to benefit large countries in this country, and
:24:51. > :24:52.he chose to cut capital gains large countries in this country, and
:24:53. > :24:57.which were largely benefit people who have got a bit of money. So I
:24:58. > :25:00.think there were different changes he could have made even within the
:25:01. > :25:09.terms of this budget that would have been much fairer. I understand that,
:25:10. > :25:18.but which are nevertheless have thinks it the benefits? -- ring
:25:19. > :25:21.fenced? We need to look at all these things long-term, but it would be
:25:22. > :25:26.for a Labour government when we get closer to the next election to the
:25:27. > :25:32.absolute specifics on all of those pension benefits, but by and large,
:25:33. > :25:35.let's be clear. The last Labour government worked incredibly hard to
:25:36. > :25:39.raise pensioners out of poverty. We were incredibly successful in that
:25:40. > :25:42.regard, a million pensioners lifted out of poverty under the last Labour
:25:43. > :25:45.government and I don't think they ought to be the target for cuts,
:25:46. > :25:49.just as I don't believe that disabled people ought to be. There
:25:50. > :25:53.are myriad other choices the government could have taken. Iain
:25:54. > :25:56.Duncan Smith today I think has been very honest in explaining how George
:25:57. > :26:00.Osborne could have taken different choices, should have done, and in
:26:01. > :26:14.his words he is dividing Britain, moving away from any notion of us
:26:15. > :26:17.all being in it together. But you are committed to balancing current
:26:18. > :26:22.spending, but if you have ring fenced pensions, as you have told us
:26:23. > :26:27.this morning, presumably you would ring fence the NHS, or even add to
:26:28. > :26:33.spending in the NHS, and you want to ring fence nearly all of welfare as
:26:34. > :26:40.well. Where do the cuts come from the balance current spending? I have
:26:41. > :26:43.just given you two, let's be very specific, Labour would be saying
:26:44. > :26:48.today if it were our budget, that we would not have done the cuts to
:26:49. > :26:52.corporation tax, that would have given us in year ?600 million, and
:26:53. > :26:57.we would not have done the cut to capital gains tax, that would give
:26:58. > :27:02.us another ?600 million. That nets off the PIP cuts annually, the ?1.2
:27:03. > :27:06.billion, and there are other similar choices we could look at. We would
:27:07. > :27:11.not have taken corporation tax back to 19%. We would have been taking
:27:12. > :27:15.far more from large multinational companies than this government is.
:27:16. > :27:20.So far you have given me 1.2 billion, but you have announced much
:27:21. > :27:23.more than that in spending plans. So I am not quite clear how it is you
:27:24. > :27:28.would balance current spending, because I think we can both agree an
:27:29. > :27:35.extra 1.2 billion went to do it, will it? No, but a corporation tax
:27:36. > :27:43.alone by 2020 would be giving us ?2.5 billion, if we were to revert
:27:44. > :27:48.back to the April 2015 rate of 20%. We would still have a corporation
:27:49. > :27:52.tax in this country that was 10% lower than Germany, 15% lower than
:27:53. > :27:59.America, 10% lower than Australia. It would be an extremely competitive
:28:00. > :28:01.rate of tax. I just highlight that ?1 billion example, ?3 billion
:28:02. > :28:07.example, how we would make different choices. Right, but as I say, in
:28:08. > :28:11.many of your spending plans you have already spent that sort of money.
:28:12. > :28:16.You also talk about fair taxes, you would not cut the corporation tax
:28:17. > :28:23.any further, what else to you mean by fair taxes? What would you raise
:28:24. > :28:29.by fair taxes? As I said a minute ago, we can't for years out from a
:28:30. > :28:32.budget before, a pre-election budget from Labour, tell you precisely what
:28:33. > :28:35.all of our spending plans will be, I don't think that is a reasonable
:28:36. > :28:40.thing to ask any opposition government to do but I think we are
:28:41. > :28:54.setting very clear indicators about what we think the benefits would be.
:28:55. > :28:57.Give us another example. It is reflective of our belief that those
:28:58. > :29:04.who have the largest amounts of money ought to bear the largest
:29:05. > :29:11.burden in our society. It is unclear whether that raises you very much.
:29:12. > :29:14.The government's own analysis showed there was ?3 billion forgone in
:29:15. > :29:19.cutting that top rate of tax. I now see they are trying to argue they
:29:20. > :29:25.have somehow applied a famous curve and ?8 billion they have made. I
:29:26. > :29:28.think corporation tax shows you very clearly, corporation tax receipts
:29:29. > :29:33.have been flat, they have managed to cut from 28% to 20% in the last six
:29:34. > :29:40.years, and the amount of receipts we are getting in has gone from 43
:29:41. > :29:46.billion to 43 billion. Investment has decreased.
:29:47. > :29:52.What are used to call sickness benefit comes to over 50 billion
:29:53. > :29:58.pounds a year. You would leave it untouched? No, we want to reform the
:29:59. > :30:02.system. Take for example, Iain Duncan Smith made a lot about
:30:03. > :30:08.universal credit this morning. He has said George Osborne has stripped
:30:09. > :30:13.out the guts of universal credit. I was asking about disability? Some
:30:14. > :30:19.people who are disabled will be in receipt of universal credit. What
:30:20. > :30:27.would you do about the disability 50 billion pounds annual budget? We
:30:28. > :30:29.wouldn't be making the changes the current government are proposing.
:30:30. > :30:39.They are lying to the British public about this, spending on the disabled
:30:40. > :30:43.is increasing. If you take all disability benefits, I am publishing
:30:44. > :30:48.figures today that say it has declined around 60% that the
:30:49. > :30:55.government have already cut disabled benefits. -- 6%. That will not be my
:30:56. > :30:59.target. Would you keep this increase in the threshold for people who
:31:00. > :31:05.enter the 40% tax bracket? Yes, we would keep that. It is fair to say
:31:06. > :31:11.the fiscal drag of people being pulled into the 40p rate has been
:31:12. > :31:14.increasing. I think we will need to reform taxation much more
:31:15. > :31:19.fundamentally. I still think the key thing today is we have got to
:31:20. > :31:24.understand George Osborne is the man in the dock. I am going to have to
:31:25. > :31:30.stop you there. We look forward to talking to you in the future about
:31:31. > :31:36.your plans for tax reform. Now let's go to the Conservative MP who has
:31:37. > :31:45.spearheaded the back bench opposition to George Osborne's tax
:31:46. > :31:50.cuts. Was a Iain Duncan Smith right to resign? He was coming he had
:31:51. > :31:55.reached a point where he had had enough of the purse strings being
:31:56. > :31:59.pulled so he couldn't deliver the welfare reform he wanted to. He had
:32:00. > :32:05.no option. Mr Cameron says he is puzzled by the resignation and the
:32:06. > :32:11.position of the government on these welfare reforms and cuts had been
:32:12. > :32:18.collectively agreed. I am learning, I am still a relatively new MP. You
:32:19. > :32:22.can keep your powder dry for so long, you are convinced by the whips
:32:23. > :32:28.that this is the right thing to do. Your conscience will kick in, it did
:32:29. > :32:32.for me last year over tax credits. The rumblings are more open this
:32:33. > :32:37.year than they were last year over tax credits. Iain Duncan Smith
:32:38. > :32:40.looked around him and saw many MP is saying how unhappy they were and he
:32:41. > :32:44.couldn't proceed any longer. Would you have been one of the rebels if
:32:45. > :32:54.the government had proceeded with what was in
:32:55. > :33:02.the government had proceeded with the years has presided over a number
:33:03. > :33:04.of cuts to welfare. Now he is resigning
:33:05. > :33:12.of cuts to welfare. Now he is going to happen,
:33:13. > :33:16.of cuts to welfare. Now he is The first thing to say, I cannot
:33:17. > :33:18.of cuts to welfare. Now he is happened. I have had no letter or
:33:19. > :33:21.e-mail coming from the Treasury saying we
:33:22. > :33:28.e-mail coming from the Treasury again. A lot of what has been cut
:33:29. > :33:36.from Iain Duncan Smith's point of view, so the tax credit taper rate,
:33:37. > :33:40.universal taper rate, PIP, it has been coming thick and fast. He has
:33:41. > :33:45.had to deliver what it was revolutionary welfare reforms. He
:33:46. > :33:50.wanted to do them the right way. Everything I talked about in my
:33:51. > :33:56.maiden speech about doing it gently and allowing the minimum wage to
:33:57. > :33:58.rise. The Treasury whole the purse strings and they stopped him
:33:59. > :33:59.delivering the policies the way he wanted to.
:34:00. > :34:03.delivering the policies the way he tax credits, which was a move
:34:04. > :34:07.delivering the policies the way he take away some welfare benefits from
:34:08. > :34:11.delivering the policies the way he the working poor, is it not puzzling
:34:12. > :34:17.the Chancellor then moved in to an even more difficult group to deal
:34:18. > :34:21.with, in terms of taking things away, into the disabled and seem to
:34:22. > :34:31.have learned nothing from the tax credit U turn? I guess we will see
:34:32. > :34:34.in the days and weeks to come. It is not just PIP, you will remember the
:34:35. > :34:40.extra payment given to claimants who not just PIP, you will remember the
:34:41. > :34:43.had been ill for a long time and were returning to work. I voted
:34:44. > :34:46.against that also. I hope Stephen Crabb, the new Secretary of State
:34:47. > :34:50.will have a conversation with the Treasury and this will be brought to
:34:51. > :34:54.the table. We have made some poor decisions. Some of the areas of
:34:55. > :34:59.taxation we have opted for instead, are wrong. It doesn't send the right
:35:00. > :35:03.message that as a Conservative Party we can look after everybody in
:35:04. > :35:06.society. It is only the Conservatives who can, because we do
:35:07. > :35:13.need the strong economy to deliver any of this. But it has got to come
:35:14. > :35:17.back to the table and we have got to start again. Is it your view it
:35:18. > :35:19.wouldn't be enough just to tinker with what the government was
:35:20. > :35:24.planning to do with the personal mobility independent payments and do
:35:25. > :35:32.what it did with tax credits, which was to scrap what it was planning to
:35:33. > :35:39.do and start again? I have spoken to a lot of disability charities. I am
:35:40. > :35:44.putting myself through and Mark PIP assessment because I want to feel
:35:45. > :35:50.what it is like. It just doesn't work that so many groups of ill and
:35:51. > :35:53.disabled people. Tinkering with two tiny point isn't good enough. We
:35:54. > :35:59.need to look at the whole process and start from scratch and work with
:36:00. > :36:03.these charities, who understand the pressures put on these people so we
:36:04. > :36:08.have a system that works for them. Your party is in open warfare this
:36:09. > :36:12.morning, you have a resignation and people are referring to you as the
:36:13. > :36:18.nasty party. How big a crisis is this for the Conservatives? I have
:36:19. > :36:26.been thinking about this this morning. I am trying to keep my own
:36:27. > :36:31.wooden spoon in my kitchen drawer. I think, in a funny sort of way,
:36:32. > :36:36.because there has been so much focus on the EU, this might lead the sense
:36:37. > :36:41.check we need. All MPs are good people trying to do the best they
:36:42. > :36:45.can. This could be the slap to the face we all need that says hang on,
:36:46. > :36:50.get back together and sort ourselves out. We are the party that should be
:36:51. > :36:55.looking after people. In fact, I think it could bring us together. If
:36:56. > :37:00.you are to be brought together for a fresh start from tax credit to
:37:01. > :37:04.disability payments, is George Osborne still the right Chancellor
:37:05. > :37:15.to do it? It depends how he responds to the challenge. I am hoping so.
:37:16. > :37:22.The jury is still out? Yes. Are his chances to be Prime Minister below
:37:23. > :37:27.the water line? Sometimes the strength of a man is how he picks
:37:28. > :37:32.himself up from a fall. So let's see how he responds. If this is
:37:33. > :37:36.attempted to be brushed under the carpet, I think his chances are
:37:37. > :37:40.over. If he lets himself up and shows he is listening, making
:37:41. > :37:44.mistakes is OK, providing you correct them before they affect
:37:45. > :37:48.people. He did that with tax credits. Some ways it was a big
:37:49. > :37:54.thing because it would have affected millions and millions of people. But
:37:55. > :37:59.we need to wait and see what he is going to do with this. Your wooden
:38:00. > :38:05.spoon is always welcome on this programme.
:38:06. > :38:14.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:15. > :38:17.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:38:18. > :38:20.100 years on from the Easter Rising, the effects of that rebellion
:38:21. > :38:24.are still being felt in the form of a threat from dissidents.
:38:25. > :38:28.I'll be asking the Justice Minister, David Ford, for his assessment.
:38:29. > :38:31.And rebellion at Westminster over disability benefits.
:38:32. > :38:41.How might changes hit claimants here?
:38:42. > :38:44.Algae asking a leading benefits expert to explain.
:38:45. > :38:47.And with their thoughts throughout, I'm joined by Brian Feeney
:38:48. > :38:52.In one week's time, the centenary of the Easter Rising will be
:38:53. > :38:54.commemorated in an official ceremony in Dublin.
:38:55. > :38:56.Dignitaries from across the island have been invited to
:38:57. > :39:00.However, the centenary has also prompted concerns that dissident
:39:01. > :39:03.republicans will intensify their violence, as we've already
:39:04. > :39:07.seen with the murder of prison officer Adrian Ismay.
:39:08. > :39:13.With me now is the Justice Minister, David Ford.
:39:14. > :39:15.How concerned are you that the dissidents will strike again
:39:16. > :39:27.Since I became ministers six years ago, the threat has always been
:39:28. > :39:31.severe against police and prison officers, so in that sense, it is
:39:32. > :39:35.not particularly different. But we do know certain people hang things
:39:36. > :39:36.on anniversaries and those are a particular concern for the next week
:39:37. > :39:37.or so. How could you ever manage
:39:38. > :39:39.to persuade people who feel they are carrying on in
:39:40. > :39:42.the footsteps of the 1916 rebels that, a century on,
:39:43. > :39:52.they've got it badly wrong? I'm not sure it is possible to
:39:53. > :39:57.dissuade those who continued those actions. What we saw on Good Friday
:39:58. > :39:59.1998 was a fairly significant number of those who previously supported
:40:00. > :40:06.file and action against the state ends that. It has been messy and
:40:07. > :40:10.edgy, but we have seen the great majority of Republicans except the
:40:11. > :40:15.arrangements from Good Friday. But small numbers did not. They seem to
:40:16. > :40:19.be more welded to the struggle than any possible outcome. It is
:40:20. > :40:22.absolutely clear that the actions coming out, including murderers,
:40:23. > :40:25.make no difference to the way Northern Ireland has run and a make
:40:26. > :40:29.no difference to the constitutional arrangement with the UK and Ireland
:40:30. > :40:36.and are simply causing terror and threat and anguish. In the meantime,
:40:37. > :40:41.it looks as if prison officers in particular are vulnerable in our
:40:42. > :40:45.society. Prison and police officers are under particular threat. There
:40:46. > :40:49.is no doubt that will continue to be the case if dissident is continue to
:40:50. > :40:54.pose those kind of threats and continue to carry on in the way they
:40:55. > :40:58.are doing. There is a particular concern, and the prison service does
:40:59. > :41:03.what it can to assist people in providing protection to homes. Is
:41:04. > :41:07.enough being done or should more be done, given what the threat is?
:41:08. > :41:13.Bill-mac I see a very significant effort put in to provide that level
:41:14. > :41:17.of protection. But clearly that also relies on individuals and how they
:41:18. > :41:18.look after themselves. It can never be 100% guaranteed.
:41:19. > :41:24.How do you think Easter 1916 should be marked?
:41:25. > :41:30.I think it is interesting when you see marked. What we see are some
:41:31. > :41:35.people wanting to celebrate and others wanting to mark. I have
:41:36. > :41:39.received an invitation to go to O'Connell Street on Easter Sunday,
:41:40. > :41:43.which I have declined. I explained when I wrote back I did not think it
:41:44. > :41:48.was appropriate for somebody in my decision to take part in a ceremony
:41:49. > :41:52.which was directly linked to that particular act of violence. Just the
:41:53. > :41:55.same as I took no part in any celebration for the Ulster covenant
:41:56. > :41:58.three years ago, even though my grandfather was one of many
:41:59. > :42:03.thousands of people who signed it. I do think it is appropriate we use
:42:04. > :42:04.this as a time for reflection. There are other events over the next few
:42:05. > :42:08.weeks which I will which take a more rounded approach.
:42:09. > :42:13.We talk about the journey from which take a more rounded approach.
:42:14. > :42:14.rebellion to reconciliation. It is entirely appropriate we
:42:15. > :42:19.rebellion to reconciliation. It is that. We should recognise the
:42:20. > :42:22.rebellion to reconciliation. It is relationships which has existed
:42:23. > :42:27.rebellion to reconciliation. It is the last 18 years. Are you
:42:28. > :42:27.rebellion to reconciliation. It is the formal event on the day itself
:42:28. > :42:37.in Dublin the formal event on the day itself
:42:38. > :42:45.complexity of what happened 100 years ago, so much so
:42:46. > :42:47.be uncomfortable being there? I would be uncomfortable at an event
:42:48. > :42:49.like that. I have no problem recognising what happened on the
:42:50. > :42:51.whole issue of the ways relationships have
:42:52. > :42:56.whole issue of the ways was an invitation to attend a
:42:57. > :42:59.centenary Celbridge in the First World War, you can see that as a
:43:00. > :43:06.movement into a democracy. My problem is that people who murdered
:43:07. > :43:08.Adrian Ismay, the people who murdered David Black and others, the
:43:09. > :43:13.people who murdered the two officers, would all claim to be the
:43:14. > :43:21.direct inheritors of Easter 1916 and I cannot associate myself with that.
:43:22. > :43:26.Some people equate Easter 1916 with the Battle of the Somme in terms of
:43:27. > :43:30.historical significance. If you would feel uncomfortable formerly
:43:31. > :43:37.commemorating Easter 1916, would you be comfortable formerly
:43:38. > :43:40.commemorating the Battle of the Somme? You save some people
:43:41. > :43:44.associate them and I do not think that is true. There is no
:43:45. > :43:45.equivalence. Ten years ago, I attended the ceremony which the
:43:46. > :43:51.Irish state attended the ceremony which the
:43:52. > :43:56.of the Battle of the Somme, marked the sacrifice of many thousands of
:43:57. > :44:01.Irishmen, North and south. I think that is very different. Frankly,
:44:02. > :44:05.some of these events... Looking at the Easter Rising, it's as if only
:44:06. > :44:08.those who bid involved for those who were engaged in
:44:09. > :44:12.those who bid involved for those who to civilians, police also, never
:44:13. > :44:13.made British soldiers. It is certainly a complex issue.
:44:14. > :44:15.The Attorney General, John Larkin, has said the Easter Rising
:44:16. > :44:16.was profoundly wrong and undemocratic.
:44:17. > :44:27.I think all the evidence at the time, until the point when the
:44:28. > :44:30.British general ordered executions, I think all the evidence was
:44:31. > :44:31.regarded as undemocratic by the great
:44:32. > :44:34.regarded as undemocratic by the whatever part of Ireland they came
:44:35. > :44:42.from, whether nationalist or unionist. The question that needs to
:44:43. > :44:44.be asked, and I am interested to hear your answer.
:44:45. > :44:46.Are you uncomfortable with elected politicians in the Republic,
:44:47. > :44:48.representing a 21st-century western democracy, celebrating an armed
:44:49. > :45:04.I think there is a problem if you celebrate the insurrection in a way
:45:05. > :45:08.which doesn't mark all the events associated with it. And it does seem
:45:09. > :45:14.to be that some of the event is being run are celebrating the rising
:45:15. > :45:18.rather than looking at the totality of relationships. I can accept there
:45:19. > :45:23.are lots of complexities. Three years ago, the Queen stood and bowed
:45:24. > :45:28.her head before a monument, so I can accept that there has been a
:45:29. > :45:32.significant degree of reconciliation between the two islands, between
:45:33. > :45:36.North and south as well. But I think there is real difficulty if the
:45:37. > :45:41.state is putting a very significant part of its effort into marking the
:45:42. > :45:44.efforts of those who engaged in violence when there was a
:45:45. > :45:55.democratically available, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority
:45:56. > :45:58.of Irish people, and doesn't actually recognise in some of the
:45:59. > :46:00.key events, the totality of what happened and the totality of
:46:01. > :46:05.suffering. Have you formally committed to taking part in any
:46:06. > :46:10.events which will mark that? Yes, there are a couple of events coming
:46:11. > :46:20.up on the two weekends after Easter. There is an issue of the opening of
:46:21. > :46:26.the war memorial. There are a variety of issues which seemed to be
:46:27. > :46:30.looking at the totality of what happened rather than celebrating the
:46:31. > :46:34.specific act. What actually happened on Easter Monday in the month of
:46:35. > :46:39.April, and not Easter Sunday, on the month of March. You're coming to the
:46:40. > :46:43.end of your time as Justice Minister. You will not upload your
:46:44. > :46:47.name to go forward for the position in the new mandate. What do you
:46:48. > :46:52.regard as the successes of your six years in charge? I said in my party
:46:53. > :46:56.conference speech a couple of weeks ago that I thought we had seen more
:46:57. > :47:02.reform in the last six years than any previous 16 or possibly 26. I
:47:03. > :47:05.believe that is true. Issues like prison reform and youth justice
:47:06. > :47:12.reform, issues of legal aid reform, which simply left to withdraw. That
:47:13. > :47:16.has now been tackled. We have seen huge changes and there is a lot to
:47:17. > :47:20.be done, particularly around prisons, but what I was able to do
:47:21. > :47:25.is announce the later stage of the study relating to youth justice and
:47:26. > :47:28.get massive agreement around the Chamber on almost everything on how
:47:29. > :47:33.we stop young people getting sucked into a culture of criminality and
:47:34. > :47:36.how we get them out of the system at the earliest possible stage. That is
:47:37. > :47:40.a very different situation from the political views six years ago. It
:47:41. > :47:44.has not all been a success. If you could put a finger on your key
:47:45. > :47:50.failings, what would they be? Come on, mobility vision will do that. I
:47:51. > :47:54.might say I regret that so much takes so long, because we have
:47:55. > :47:58.lengthy consultation processes. We have not moved as fast as we would
:47:59. > :48:02.have wished on some of those reforms. I think those are the kind
:48:03. > :48:08.of problems you see. But what I think we have done is set the tone
:48:09. > :48:13.for saying justice has actually been operated successfully for six years
:48:14. > :48:18.and will continue to be a part of devolution. The pace is the problem,
:48:19. > :48:22.but the reality is the successful stop but we are not yet ready for a
:48:23. > :48:27.DUP or Sinn Fein Justice Minister? The minister will have to be
:48:28. > :48:30.elected, but I get the impression that some people are still looking
:48:31. > :48:32.to Alliance. Thank you very much indeed for joining us for now.
:48:33. > :48:35.Let's see what our guests make of it, Brian Feeney and Felicity
:48:36. > :48:46.Brian, let's talk about 1916 first of all. It is hugely complex. What
:48:47. > :48:52.do you make of what David Ford has just said and the distinctions he
:48:53. > :48:56.has brought out? It is making it over complicated. The reason it has
:48:57. > :49:01.been marked and celebrated, whatever, on Easter Sunday and
:49:02. > :49:04.Easter Monday. And I was there on Easter Monday making a speech on the
:49:05. > :49:12.forecourt, along with other people... It is the origins of the
:49:13. > :49:15.state and it is a bit pious to produce modern ideas about democracy
:49:16. > :49:20.and freedom and all the rest of it and exported them back one century.
:49:21. > :49:26.The United States celebrates an armed resurrection against Britain,
:49:27. > :49:30.1775-1776 full stop they are happy to do that. There are massive
:49:31. > :49:35.bicentennial celebrations that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. All
:49:36. > :49:41.over the world, could have state 's which threw off empires at the
:49:42. > :49:45.beginning of the 20th century. And they all celebrate getting rid of
:49:46. > :49:49.the empires, whether it is the British, French, the Austrian
:49:50. > :49:53.Empire. There was actually a lot of support in Ireland for the
:49:54. > :49:58.Bulgarians trying to overthrow the Turks and the Russians at exactly
:49:59. > :50:00.the same time. So when the Attorney General John Larkin says that
:50:01. > :50:04.looking at 1916, you have individuals of huge moral worth and
:50:05. > :50:10.capable of self-sacrifice, doing something that was profoundly wrong.
:50:11. > :50:15.You disagree? Quite often, the Attorney General is profoundly
:50:16. > :50:19.wrong, but never in doubt. Sorry expat I would be very curious to see
:50:20. > :50:23.if Brian get a letter in the post tomorrow from the Attorney General's
:50:24. > :50:29.Office for that. The thing I have found fascinating about the 1916 and
:50:30. > :50:33.all the fuss is I have learned a lot. I knew all about the causes of
:50:34. > :50:37.the First World War in school, more than 1916 and the rising. I just
:50:38. > :50:42.knew something had happened in Dublin. The British had, as usual,
:50:43. > :50:46.mishandled, and the outcome of that was the Irish free State. Now that
:50:47. > :50:50.you know, would you become double going along as Brian's guest to take
:50:51. > :50:56.part in those celebrations next week and? I would be curious to go along.
:50:57. > :51:00.I would see as being something that I didn't understand much of. But you
:51:01. > :51:03.do not feel threatened by it? It is so long ago and there has been such
:51:04. > :51:07.a change in our relationship with the Irish Republic that what is
:51:08. > :51:12.happening this time around will be different, I hope, from what
:51:13. > :51:15.happened in 1966. You have got a willing guest. Very quickly, what
:51:16. > :51:20.about the fact, and this is a serious point, that there are some
:51:21. > :51:24.people who still use what happened 100 years ago as a reason for what
:51:25. > :51:30.they see as unfinished business today? That is right, and they try
:51:31. > :51:34.to use what happened in 1916 to legitimise their actions today. But
:51:35. > :51:38.they are a tiny minority. They have no support and cannot get anyone
:51:39. > :51:42.elected, and actually, no one knows what they want. It is not a case of
:51:43. > :51:46.saying they want a united Ireland. No one knows what they want. We will
:51:47. > :51:49.talk to you again very shortly. Thank you both for now.
:51:50. > :51:52.The resignation of Ian Duncan Smith from the Cabinet has ensured that
:51:53. > :51:54.planned changes to disability benefits are going to stay
:51:55. > :51:57.Mr Duncan Smith says the changes are unfair,
:51:58. > :52:00.but his opponents say he's standing down because he wants Britain
:52:01. > :52:04.Here he is explaining to Andrew Marr this morning why he resigned.
:52:05. > :52:11.Pressure began to grow because this pressure was about the budget and
:52:12. > :52:15.the problem over the revised figures for the Budget. What worried and
:52:16. > :52:19.concerned me was we then came under pressure to put the consultation out
:52:20. > :52:24.and respond to it before the Budget, and I always hoped we would do that
:52:25. > :52:27.afterwards so as not get caught up in the Budget. This was supposed to
:52:28. > :52:32.be part of the process in the category can best aid those in need.
:52:33. > :52:37.And that pressure really was to get out a definitive definitive answer
:52:38. > :52:40.only consultation. There were lots of arguments and debates about that.
:52:41. > :52:45.Downing Street and the Treasury wanted the extensive set of changes.
:52:46. > :52:49.We argued first of all for no change at this point. And we wanted to
:52:50. > :52:52.ensure that if we did, we wanted a smaller level of change, but most
:52:53. > :52:55.importantly, to continue the dialogue and not have a fixed point.
:52:56. > :52:57.So how will the proposed benefits changes, which are designed
:52:58. > :53:00.to save ?4 billion, affect people here, especially given our previous
:53:01. > :53:09.With me now is the benefits expert, Professor Eileen Evason.
:53:10. > :53:14.Welcome to you. Thank you for being here. It does seem to be
:53:15. > :53:17.unbelievably complicated. What do you make of the row that has never
:53:18. > :53:21.engulfed the Government after Mr Duncan Smith's sudden departure? It
:53:22. > :53:26.is very confusing. In Northern Ireland we do have a strategy from
:53:27. > :53:29.energy on welfare reform. On Wednesday, I thought we might have
:53:30. > :53:33.to go back and crunch the numbers. We would have to check if that was
:53:34. > :53:38.robust enough to take the changes proposed by the Government. What
:53:39. > :53:41.they were doing was PIP, we benefit that has replaced the older one for
:53:42. > :53:45.those of working age. We must have certain points to qualify. They want
:53:46. > :53:49.to adjust the systems will people scored fewer points and get less
:53:50. > :53:53.benefit or might fall out of benefit altogether. We have to look at that
:53:54. > :53:57.and see if we can accommodate that. But we are two years behind the
:53:58. > :54:01.situation. There might be a case of defending that because we are a
:54:02. > :54:12.different state. However, as I was thinking that, the whole thing
:54:13. > :54:14.seemed to fall to pieces. Initially, had a number of Conservative MPs
:54:15. > :54:16.unhappy about it. It doesn't look nice to be seen to be cutting
:54:17. > :54:20.benefits for vulnerable or disabled people. At the same time giving tax
:54:21. > :54:25.cuts to those who are better off. We had Ian Duncan Smith's resignation
:54:26. > :54:29.after that. This is added confusion. To say that he is resigning because
:54:30. > :54:32.he is not happy about the fact George Osborne is being nasty to
:54:33. > :54:40.people on disabilities and cutting their benefits is frankly... It is a
:54:41. > :54:43.laugh. He has presided over numerous cuts and things that have made
:54:44. > :54:47.people's lives, if they are disabled, much more difficult. That
:54:48. > :54:50.is why it is so hard to get welfare reform sorted here. People were
:54:51. > :54:53.watching what was happening there and were alarmed. So you have
:54:54. > :54:57.suspicions about his reasons were leaving in the first place? I think
:54:58. > :55:06.it may be tied up in the issue of the EU. He was to be fighting for
:55:07. > :55:09.Brexit. Alongside that, he has tried to do damage to Cameron and Osborne.
:55:10. > :55:12.Maybe he has worked out that Osborne is not going to take over from
:55:13. > :55:16.Cameron. The person who may do so is Boris Johnson. I think there is a
:55:17. > :55:21.whole lot going on. Unfortunately, this is not about benefits, I
:55:22. > :55:24.suspect, and we be dragged into a much broader issue. Ian Duncan Smith
:55:25. > :55:28.denies it has anything to do with the EU, but some say he would say
:55:29. > :55:31.that. The shadow secretary made an interesting point. You have said
:55:32. > :55:38.this is about real people and real issues. In terms of them surviving.
:55:39. > :55:42.He said he suspects Mr Osborne plays politics with the lives of
:55:43. > :55:48.vulnerable people. Is that what this is about? Yes, I remember when I was
:55:49. > :55:52.doing interviews in 2010, 2011, we got to grips with the volume of cuts
:55:53. > :55:54.announced by the coalition, mainly the Conservative Government, and
:55:55. > :56:01.that concern was that the difficulty with deficit was caused by the
:56:02. > :56:04.bankers. We could not understand why the cost of clearing up that mess
:56:05. > :56:09.should fall under people in the bottom half of our society.
:56:10. > :56:14.Osborne's strategy was either about dealing with the deficit or it was
:56:15. > :56:19.about a cover for an agenda to shrink the state. If we see what has
:56:20. > :56:22.happened to local government and benefits, there is a suspicion that
:56:23. > :56:26.is what it has been about. But real people have been damaged by this.
:56:27. > :56:30.And real people watching this may be do not know what is happening. And
:56:31. > :56:34.you wonder if members of the Cabinet know quite what is happening. It
:56:35. > :56:41.does seem that the changes were announced in the Budget for what...
:56:42. > :56:47.Ian Duncan Smith resign. The issue on which he resigned has now been
:56:48. > :56:54.kicked into the long grass. We do not know precisely what that means.
:56:55. > :57:00.I think we have gone from... Nicky Morgan on question Time said the
:57:01. > :57:04.cuts were under question. Then we had someone yesterday saying this is
:57:05. > :57:08.now about consultation and discussion. I think what they want
:57:09. > :57:13.to do is get the issue of the table until after the referendum, then of
:57:14. > :57:16.course they will come back. But we have a number of Conservative MPs
:57:17. > :57:21.who were not happy about tax credit cuts. They are not happy about this.
:57:22. > :57:24.Maybe we will move into a new period of discussion. If it is an issue
:57:25. > :57:28.that will be kicked down the street until after the referendum, it may
:57:29. > :57:32.well come back and you could have to sit down and crunch numbers again
:57:33. > :57:36.and look to see whether the mitigation here in Northern Ireland
:57:37. > :57:41.meets that. Is that a possibility? It is, but I think we will do it
:57:42. > :57:45.calmly. We rushed things last year. The things went down the first time
:57:46. > :57:49.because people rushed in front of microphones and got themselves
:57:50. > :57:53.confused. Steady as we go, we have got a strategy, we will look at it
:57:54. > :57:57.to see if we can cope. I think we might be able to do so. We might
:57:58. > :58:02.have to delay the change because we are farther back than we are in
:58:03. > :58:06.Great Britain, sought a different point in the process. But let's do
:58:07. > :58:07.it calmly. Thank you very much for coming in to join us.
:58:08. > :58:10.Let's take a look back at the week gone past
:58:11. > :58:22.The first and Deputy First Minister were in the US for... When news
:58:23. > :58:26.reached them the death of police officer Adrian Ismay. We are here to
:58:27. > :58:31.talk about Northern Ireland. I am personally devastated to hear the
:58:32. > :58:35.news. We are trying to move forward and build a better future. There are
:58:36. > :58:38.tripping continued including a meeting with President Obama, but
:58:39. > :58:44.Gerry Adams was excluded from a White House reception. I was not
:58:45. > :58:49.invited, and it is bad manners. It is not a good way to treat guests.
:58:50. > :58:52.As thousands gathered to celebrate in public, celebrations in the holy
:58:53. > :58:59.land area of south Belfast turned sour. We have been far too lenient
:59:00. > :59:05.in the past. Life there is an utter misery. It is a high octane mix.
:59:06. > :59:10.Long periods of drinking. And with an election looming, it was time to
:59:11. > :59:14.say goodbye to some old faces at Stormont. It was a pleasure to know
:59:15. > :59:14.each and every one of you. Thank you very much.
:59:15. > :59:19.APPLAUSE Let's have a final word
:59:20. > :59:34.from Brian and Felicity. Whether you agree with what Eileen
:59:35. > :59:37.Evason is analysis or not, it is a bit shambolic in terms of the
:59:38. > :59:46.Government's position on welfare, isn't it? It is dreadful. It is an
:59:47. > :59:50.episode of The Effect Of It. Cameron Sward down the phone, so they say.
:59:51. > :59:56.It is dreadful, no way to run a Government. It is not about Brexit.
:59:57. > :59:59.Brexit is different, it is not about that. Ian Duncan Smith was free to
:00:00. > :00:02.say what he wanted about that. He did not need to make the stand to go
:00:03. > :00:06.out and campaign for what he believes about Europe. I think it is
:00:07. > :00:10.much more about Osborne and his relationship with other big beasts
:00:11. > :00:15.in the party. What do you think of where we are? Can you pick any
:00:16. > :00:19.logical path through this, Brian? First of all, there is a
:00:20. > :00:23.relationship between Ian Duncan Smith and George Osborne which has
:00:24. > :00:28.been terribly bad since 2010, but there is certainly an element of the
:00:29. > :00:31.referendum in it. There is no doubt that Ian Duncan Smith and close
:00:32. > :00:35.associates of hers have been saying he has been looking for a pretext of
:00:36. > :00:42.designing for several months because of his opposition to being in
:00:43. > :00:48.Europe. He described the official Government position as a dodgy
:00:49. > :00:51.dossier. Having said that,... Furthermore, he has carried out some
:00:52. > :00:55.of the worst reforms in the last six years, the benefits cap, the bedroom
:00:56. > :00:59.tax, he has been attacking people with disabilities for six years, and
:01:00. > :01:03.finally to decide he has got a conscience is surprising. OK, it is
:01:04. > :01:04.a fascinating situation and we will have lots more value out of it in
:01:05. > :01:09.That's it. Now, back to Andrew in London.
:01:10. > :01:11.extra cash. -- onto the consumers will stop
:01:12. > :01:15.My thanks to Diane Abbott and to Justine Greening.
:01:16. > :01:28.government back together after Iain government back together after Iain
:01:29. > :01:32.Duncan Smith's resignation? What happens to George Osborne's budget
:01:33. > :01:33.plans and what will the impact of all this be on the EU referendum
:01:34. > :01:47.campaign? So where does it go from here? I
:01:48. > :01:52.would suggest it gets worse for the Tories long before it gets better.
:01:53. > :01:56.Yes, I think one thing David Cameron and George Osborne might want to
:01:57. > :01:59.think carefully about is how they manage Iain Duncan Smith, and the
:02:00. > :02:06.pretty hostile briefing against him is only going to increase his ire.
:02:07. > :02:11.They should not forget that he has quite an important weapon, the
:02:12. > :02:15.private conversation with primers to's office in recent weeks, which
:02:16. > :02:18.show that the Prime Minister wanted to much, much further than Iain
:02:19. > :02:24.Duncan Smith was willing to go. When they say these were your ideas, why
:02:25. > :02:28.is it a problem, Iain Duncan Smith's argument is yes, these were my
:02:29. > :02:32.ideas, but they were part of a long-term sustainable plan. They
:02:33. > :02:35.were not about giving you, George Osborne, money to cut taxes for the
:02:36. > :02:39.wealthy, which is what he did in capital gains tax. So I think they
:02:40. > :02:42.probably need to handle Iain Duncan Smith with care because he could be
:02:43. > :02:46.dangerous for them if he really is on the loose.
:02:47. > :02:55.Is clear It already for every person in Downing Street is briefing to
:02:56. > :02:59.have a go at Iain Duncan Smith, there is someone ready to have a go
:03:00. > :03:04.at Mr Cameron and the government? I cannot remember a time since David
:03:05. > :03:08.Cameron became leader of the Conservative Party that discipline
:03:09. > :03:13.has broken down as it has in the last 48 hours. It is hard to see how
:03:14. > :03:19.he brings discipline back in before the referendum. His powers of
:03:20. > :03:23.patronage is limited, he doesn't want a big reshuffle before the
:03:24. > :03:37.referendum, he wants to wait. There is a feeling of open season. Is he
:03:38. > :03:44.on his way out? It is not in Brexit's interest to whip this up.
:03:45. > :03:50.People will worry what a big leap it is into the unknown if we leave. If
:03:51. > :03:54.they think we are voting for a total change of government and Prime
:03:55. > :03:59.Minister, it puts the stakes of even higher. We might see believe
:04:00. > :04:06.campaign's dumping this down a little bit. The Chancellor, now
:04:07. > :04:09.among the walking wounded, has a budget to get to the House of
:04:10. > :04:15.Commons which deals through money matters. He needs a vote to cut the
:04:16. > :04:21.capital gains tax, cut corporation tax, raise the threshold for the 40%
:04:22. > :04:25.taxpayers. There is a danger with rebellion in the air and the Tory
:04:26. > :04:31.back benches rebel against one thing, as they do on disability,
:04:32. > :04:35.they could rebel on other things? I think he has two problems, the
:04:36. > :04:38.immediate is the legislated challenge of getting the CGT cut and
:04:39. > :04:42.the threshold raised and everything else through Parliament in the
:04:43. > :04:47.coming weeks and months. Then he has to find the money he has just lost
:04:48. > :04:51.by reversing on the disability benefit cut. He has already lost
:04:52. > :05:00.money from reversing the tax credit policy. Which is why he broke his
:05:01. > :05:03.welfare cap. Exactly. Even if he gets through this immediate
:05:04. > :05:06.challenge of getting the budget through Parliament, his central
:05:07. > :05:11.purpose as a politician is to close the deficit. He has made it harder
:05:12. > :05:16.for himself by reversing on some of these contentious measures. It's not
:05:17. > :05:22.as if the problem ends in a few weeks' time. Isn't it made worse by
:05:23. > :05:25.the fact this is taking place in the midst of the EU referendum campaign,
:05:26. > :05:30.which had already divided conservatives. It like pouring
:05:31. > :05:37.petrol on the flames? It is hard to see anything other than another four
:05:38. > :05:41.months of mayhem. We don't know what the results of the referendum will
:05:42. > :05:47.be. Probably a good deal of mayhem after that. It is interesting how
:05:48. > :05:52.quiet Boris Johnson has been. I understand he is away skiing, but we
:05:53. > :05:59.haven't heard from friends of his. Maybe the lines are bad to the Alps.
:06:00. > :06:05.It shows you how serious his team are, they are being smart and will
:06:06. > :06:11.not wade in. This has been a good weekend for Brexit, because their
:06:12. > :06:16.most high profile member of the Cabinet has resigned and appears to
:06:17. > :06:20.be a bit bullied, possibly by George Osborne. He speaks from the heart of
:06:21. > :06:25.this because he had this visit to Glasgow and got onto this issue. In
:06:26. > :06:30.that sense it is a good weekend the Brexit. But the problem for them,
:06:31. > :06:34.you need to be talking about the vision for the future of Britain.
:06:35. > :06:39.This is quite Westminster, inside. Brexit need to counter the main
:06:40. > :06:43.argument that they are the biggest risk. While there may be sympathy
:06:44. > :06:47.for Iain Duncan Smith, it is not getting on their argument. The two
:06:48. > :06:51.leading spokesman for the remain campaign on the conservative side
:06:52. > :06:55.the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. The Minister has a civil
:06:56. > :07:00.war on his hands and has to be careful he doesn't make it worse by
:07:01. > :07:06.some of the briefing Downing Street is behind. The second most important
:07:07. > :07:14.man is among the walking wounded. Why will people listen to him over
:07:15. > :07:20.the referendum. That is why it has been a good weekend for the Brexit.
:07:21. > :07:22.But the most political force in this country will make a big picture
:07:23. > :07:25.decision based on the big picture arguments of what is the safest
:07:26. > :07:29.option and what is the riskiest option. I am not sure this great
:07:30. > :07:32.excitement and eruptions in the Westminster village, I am not sure
:07:33. > :07:38.whether they massively register with the British people if they make a
:07:39. > :07:44.big decision are big issues. There is concern over the Conservative
:07:45. > :07:48.Party and their brands. They work so hard to detoxify themselves in the
:07:49. > :07:52.run-up to the last elections. It wasn't convincing, they were in
:07:53. > :07:59.coalition and now they have the smallest of majorities. Now it looks
:08:00. > :08:05.like they are the nasty party. At a time when the home strategy was to
:08:06. > :08:08.move to the centre ground? It hasn't worked. If I were a conservative
:08:09. > :08:14.strategist, I would concerned about the catastrophic damage to the
:08:15. > :08:20.party's brand. The Prime Minister keeps on making speeches, normally
:08:21. > :08:22.on Monday about the poor, about racial discrimination, about
:08:23. > :08:28.equality. All designed to position the Tories in the centre, even the
:08:29. > :08:34.centre-left ground, because they think Labour has left that. But they
:08:35. > :08:38.can come up with the tax credit fiasco and the disability fiasco.
:08:39. > :08:42.Who is running the show? It is hard to close the deficit once you have
:08:43. > :08:49.ring fence the NHS and everything else. But they make it difficult and
:08:50. > :08:54.provocative when they juxstapose a cut in tax credits, with raising the
:08:55. > :09:00.threshold of in terrorist -- inheritance tax last year. Capital
:09:01. > :09:06.gains tax this year. They have had to do it because it was in the
:09:07. > :09:10.manifesto, but it didn't have to be in the manifesto and it is that
:09:11. > :09:15.juxtaposition rather than the cost of welfare that appeared to be so
:09:16. > :09:20.incendiary. You say it has been a good weekend the Brexit, and the
:09:21. > :09:23.domestic back drop will exacerbate tensions between the remain and
:09:24. > :09:29.leave. But there is an international guy mentioned to this. The EU in
:09:30. > :09:36.Turkey have come to an agreement, I think it starts tonight. And here is
:09:37. > :09:41.a guess, I'd bet it starts to unravel within 24 hours? It is the
:09:42. > :09:45.sort of thing that looks good on paper. Refugees who come over arson
:09:46. > :09:51.back to Turkey and Syrian refugees are sent to Europe. Looks great on
:09:52. > :09:54.paper. These are people who have risked their lives, seen people
:09:55. > :10:00.drowned in the Aegean Sea. Lost family members. They make it to
:10:01. > :10:06.Greece and you are going to say to them, get back. And they say, fine,
:10:07. > :10:12.I will do that. It will be difficult to do. UN agencies are saying they
:10:13. > :10:16.are not sure if it is legal. You cannot treat a group of migrants as
:10:17. > :10:20.a group under the Geneva Convention, they have to be treated as
:10:21. > :10:27.individuals. But this treats them as a group. If you see more unpleasant
:10:28. > :10:32.scenes out of Greece, more of a sense the European Union just hasn't
:10:33. > :10:41.tackled this problem, that all adds to the leave campaign? Yes, it is a
:10:42. > :10:46.real source of alarm. The debate about Turkey and the possible
:10:47. > :10:49.prospect of Turkey, in the long-term, becoming part of the EU,
:10:50. > :10:56.is extremely toxic. The outer campaign will be seeking to exploit
:10:57. > :11:03.every inch of that debate. It has been a horrible week for the remain
:11:04. > :11:08.campaign, politically and strategically. Ultimately, the
:11:09. > :11:14.decision by swing voters, people by definition have no principled view
:11:15. > :11:19.on the subject, will be based on big picture variables and factors. Would
:11:20. > :11:24.you rather have the Prime Minister, still a credible, by all accounts a
:11:25. > :11:31.reasonably popular Prime Minister, on your side? You would. It is a big
:11:32. > :11:33.asset than Iain Duncan Smith, Boris Johnson Michael Gove. One of the big
:11:34. > :11:40.elements of the bigger picture is the prospect of Turkey becoming a
:11:41. > :11:42.member of the European Union. I am not sure I will be alive at the
:11:43. > :11:47.member of the European Union. I am Turkey joins the European Union.
:11:48. > :11:53.That means the EU is basically lying to Turkey? The implicit thing about
:11:54. > :11:57.the deal they have had is you make progress towards membership. I am
:11:58. > :11:59.the deal they have had is you make making progress towards becoming a
:12:00. > :12:05.millionaire, it is not going to happen. I was looking to you for
:12:06. > :12:10.alone! I was in Luxembourg ten years ago when those accession
:12:11. > :12:14.negotiations began. The Foreign Minister of Turkey was made to
:12:15. > :12:17.negotiations began. The Foreign in Ankara. He eventually flew
:12:18. > :12:18.through the night when Europe eventually said yes, we will start
:12:19. > :12:19.it. eventually said yes, we will start
:12:20. > :12:27.France to allow them to join. eventually said yes, we will start
:12:28. > :12:28.French will not vote in favour of Turkey joining. I agree it is not
:12:29. > :12:35.going to happen but it Turkey joining. I agree it is not
:12:36. > :12:39.of hand to imply to the Turks to get them to deal with the migrant
:12:40. > :12:41.crisis. They use it to get the money and sneak through various
:12:42. > :12:45.crisis. They use it to get the money All Brexit has to do is
:12:46. > :12:51.impression that it might happen sooner or later and bingo, you will
:12:52. > :12:56.scare a lot of people. More worrying is how strategically depend on the
:12:57. > :12:57.West is on Turkey. The Turkish government, is nothing like the
:12:58. > :13:02.Turkish government than it government, is nothing like the
:13:03. > :13:06.ago. Which is why we are having to shut up about domestic Turkish
:13:07. > :13:12.affairs because we are so reliant on them. They are only closing
:13:13. > :13:23.We won't be back next week, it is We will leave it there.
:13:24. > :13:29.We won't be back next week, it is Easter, but remember, if it is
:13:30. > :13:36.Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless of course, it is Easter.