:01:17. > :01:18.With me throughout with their thoughts, academic Cathy
:01:19. > :01:25.Gormley-Heenan and journalist Sam McBride.
:01:26. > :01:38.establishing an official opposition cranks up a gear. This time it is
:01:39. > :01:42.the turn of the Ulster Unionist Party the party chairman has tabled
:01:43. > :01:51.an amendment to the Northern Ireland Bill which would pave the way for
:01:52. > :01:57.opposition. The party NI21 have the stated
:01:58. > :02:01.intention of campaigning for an opposition.
:02:02. > :02:06.Welcome to the programme, Lord Empey, first of all, why are you
:02:07. > :02:09.making a case for formal opposition at Stormont at this stage? Because
:02:10. > :02:15.there is a piece of legislation in front of Parliament that allows me
:02:16. > :02:21.to do so, the Northern Ireland miscellaneous provisions Bill and
:02:22. > :02:23.allows you to put forward items of a wide range of areas.
:02:24. > :02:27.I have put forward a series of amendments. There is a legislative
:02:28. > :02:32.vehicle in front of us at this point. So you can do it, the
:02:33. > :02:37.question is why choose to do it? It looks to the public, I suggest,
:02:38. > :02:41.that it is a change of tack on the part of the Ulster Unionist Party.
:02:42. > :02:46.You were not in favour of opposition, now you appear to be. I
:02:47. > :02:51.am afraid you are wrong. Our 2010 manifesto had provision for
:02:52. > :02:57.opposition. In our manifesto for 2011 it is included, and at Mike
:02:58. > :03:02.Nesbitt's maiden speech he raised the question of opposition. Whether
:03:03. > :03:06.we as a party would ever seek to be an opposition is a totally different
:03:07. > :03:10.issue from whether we have an official opposition or not. We want
:03:11. > :03:15.the provision could be applied because we think it will strengthen
:03:16. > :03:18.Stormont, it will move us one stage towards more normal politics and I
:03:19. > :03:23.cannot see any reason why anyone would be opposed to it.
:03:24. > :03:29.In the public mind, John McCallister stood for the story -- Ulster
:03:30. > :03:32.Unionist leader against Mike Nesbitt, he stood on a ticket of
:03:33. > :03:38.wanting to take the party into opposition and Mike Nesbitt oppose
:03:39. > :03:41.that. Now the former leader looks to be supporting opposition. Can you
:03:42. > :03:45.see how that looks strange to the public? John wanted to take the
:03:46. > :03:46.party into opposition there and then.
:03:47. > :03:58.party into opposition there and executive and just sit there. There
:03:59. > :04:04.is no status, you will get no speaking rights, supply days or
:04:05. > :04:07.anything and opposition would get. John McCallister, do you accept that
:04:08. > :04:13.analysis? My Private Members' Bill would
:04:14. > :04:17.create that, and effectively at the minute we are looking at two former
:04:18. > :04:19.leaders of the Ulster Unionist Party effectively wanting to take powers
:04:20. > :04:26.away from the Northern Ireland Assembly.
:04:27. > :04:30.Legal advice in this is quite clear. We can do this at Stormont, and that
:04:31. > :04:38.is the place this should be being done. I welcome the debate, but if
:04:39. > :04:41.he wants to do something in the Northern Ireland miscellaneous Bill,
:04:42. > :04:46.what he should be doing is tackling the bits we cannot do at Stormont,
:04:47. > :04:48.like designation or particularly tackling the way we elect the
:04:49. > :04:53.Justice Minister. You are saying tackling the way we elect the
:04:54. > :04:55.this debate is unnecessary because you think the powers already reside
:04:56. > :04:59.at Stormont? Let me be clear on that, they reside
:05:00. > :05:05.at Stormont. The legal advice is that they reside
:05:06. > :05:09.at Stormont. That is where this should be decided and debated. But
:05:10. > :05:11.that would be for something of informal opposition rather than
:05:12. > :05:17.formal opposition. What he is wanting to do, all of
:05:18. > :05:20.that is decided at Stormont, and we can change that.
:05:21. > :05:26.The best vehicle to do that is in my Private Members' Bill. This point
:05:27. > :05:32.about trying to normalise politics - you cannot have a party leader out
:05:33. > :05:37.fighting a culture where -- culture war and then talk about normalising
:05:38. > :05:41.politics. The public will not understand that message. You cannot
:05:42. > :05:45.talk about opposition as you would claim, Reg, for about 16 years and
:05:46. > :05:50.not want to go into it, not see that we believe strong enough to go into
:05:51. > :05:55.it. We believe in having it but do not want to go into it seems to be
:05:56. > :06:00.the message from the UUP. John McCallister is saying, Reg Empey,
:06:01. > :06:05.that this should be the preserve of the MLAs at Stormont.
:06:06. > :06:17.No, if he looks at his own party's website on the 27th of August,
:06:18. > :06:20.No, if he looks at his own party's wants to go down and leave it at
:06:21. > :06:25.Stormont you would be the way thing of the shin of -- of Sinn Fein and
:06:26. > :06:29.the DUP, they can snuff you out like that. Standing orders at Stormont
:06:30. > :06:35.can be changed at any point by the largest two parties. We want to have
:06:36. > :06:39.it in statute so there is no question that the stat us of an
:06:40. > :06:42.opposition is not dependent on the goodwill of the two parties who
:06:43. > :06:48.happen to be in control. -- the status. Does that mean that Mike
:06:49. > :06:49.Nesbitt would want to take the Australian unionists into
:06:50. > :06:58.opposition? He can do that at the moment anyway.
:06:59. > :07:04.-- the Ulster Unionists. No, he cannot.
:07:05. > :07:10.All you can do is become a group of backbenchers with no status. First
:07:11. > :07:15.of all, any party that thinks in an election fights to win. You fight to
:07:16. > :07:19.win, to get support for your policies and implement them in over
:07:20. > :07:26.a month. But on occasion, parties do not win. -- implement them in
:07:27. > :07:28.government. We want to have an opposition which is officially
:07:29. > :07:34.recognised which cannot be the plaything of any two parties at
:07:35. > :07:37.Stormont. The methodology for electing ministers and selecting
:07:38. > :07:41.them is all in the Northern Ireland act, so should opposition be. There
:07:42. > :07:45.is not very much separating you, is there?
:07:46. > :07:46.The point is, opposition is not mentioned in the Northern Ireland
:07:47. > :08:00.act. mentioned in the Northern Ireland
:08:01. > :08:05.Northern Ireland Assembly, there is not the legal adviser. And Professor
:08:06. > :08:09.Rick Wilford doesn't know what he is doing?
:08:10. > :08:12.The advice from the Assembly is that opposition is a devolved matter and
:08:13. > :08:15.when you read through Reg's amendment we can change that in the
:08:16. > :08:19.Assembly and that is the best vehicle to do it.
:08:20. > :08:21.Reg talks about being snuffed out by the DUP and Sinn Fein if they wanted
:08:22. > :08:35.to. You mention endorsement of the Ulster Unionist
:08:36. > :08:41.Party being in government. -- the A5. This is a debate we should be
:08:42. > :08:44.all on. You cannot do that while in government and fighting a culture
:08:45. > :08:50.war at the same time. All of those things contradict each other.
:08:51. > :08:55.John is arguing to totally different things. Whether due as a party are
:08:56. > :09:00.in opposition is one issue. What I am dealing with is providing a
:09:01. > :09:02.structural mechanism to allow it to happen at Westminster where it
:09:03. > :09:06.cannot be interfered with by Stormont. Otherwise the parties that
:09:07. > :09:11.control Stormont can snuff you out at any time. You accept you can do
:09:12. > :09:14.it at Stormont? No, you cannot do that.
:09:15. > :09:20.You can. The legal advice is clear.
:09:21. > :09:24.You can change standing orders, not primary legislation.
:09:25. > :09:30.But the place to do primary legislation is at Stormont. It is
:09:31. > :09:34.not, you are totally wrong. I would welcome him to the debate behaviour
:09:35. > :09:39.is doing something, particularly around designation.
:09:40. > :09:43.We will leave it there, thank you both for now.
:09:44. > :09:46.Let's hear from our commentators, Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Sam
:09:47. > :09:50.McBride. Sam, some people think we may be dancing on the head of a pin,
:09:51. > :09:56.others think this is a fundamental issue that needs to be clarified,
:09:57. > :10:01.which is it for you? It is both. Sitting on the fence! It is going to
:10:02. > :10:05.be teased out at Westminster, whether the government takes this as
:10:06. > :10:09.an amendment to its bill. If it does, and Lord Empey as closer
:10:10. > :10:14.links to the Tories through the history of the Ulster Unionist
:10:15. > :10:18.Party, and if they do then clearly the legal advice that the government
:10:19. > :10:22.has is that it can. If they do not, there will be a question over that.
:10:23. > :10:28.There are two separate issues here. Is there a mechanism for
:10:29. > :10:31.opposition? Sometimes I think public unhappiness at Stormont has forced a
:10:32. > :10:36.debate into the parties, where the Ulster Unionist Party is reluctant
:10:37. > :10:47.about this, increasingly there is this
:10:48. > :10:49.about this, increasingly there is same thing. What is your opinion on
:10:50. > :10:55.where authority arrived as Michael resides?
:10:56. > :10:59.You are an academic and you know Rick Wilford and Alex Kane very
:11:00. > :11:05.well, you know the territory very well, do you side with John or Reg?
:11:06. > :11:09.I am not a legal expert. I am not prepared to side with
:11:10. > :11:13.either of them. I am heartened by this debate, today, because it puts
:11:14. > :11:17.the issue of opposition squarely onto the agenda. Last year the
:11:18. > :11:21.Assembly and review committee looked at this issue specifically. They put
:11:22. > :11:24.out a call for a consultation. Not many people got involved in the
:11:25. > :11:33.debate at the time under this forces us to have a thorough and robust
:11:34. > :11:35.debate on the mechanisms for an opposition and what that may mean
:11:36. > :11:40.for Northern Ireland, particularly for things like who would chair the
:11:41. > :11:45.Public Accounts Committee? Northern Ireland is the only area in the UK
:11:46. > :11:49.that has a Public Accounts Committee not chaired by the member of the
:11:50. > :11:54.opposition. That is important to me because an opposition at its core is
:11:55. > :11:57.about good governance and holding the government to account. You
:11:58. > :12:00.cannot hold yourself to account if you are holding the office and
:12:01. > :12:04.holding the accountability mechanisms, as well. That is why
:12:05. > :12:08.this debate, complicated as it may seem, is important. It is
:12:09. > :12:12.fundamental. The debate that has been hand, that
:12:13. > :12:17.people outside of the political village have had come is forcing the
:12:18. > :12:23.pace on this. -- the debate that has been hand.
:12:24. > :12:26.?15 million has been lost out of the executive budget already this year
:12:27. > :12:30.because of our failure to agree on welfare reform. The finance minister
:12:31. > :12:34.warned this week the penalty is expected to increase significantly.
:12:35. > :12:37.The welfare reform Bill was pulled in April because of a lack of
:12:38. > :12:41.agreement with the DUP blaming Sinn Fein for a delay. The finance
:12:42. > :12:46.minister, Simon Hamilton, said he was disappointed no progress had
:12:47. > :12:48.been made. I will have to return to the welfare reform issue.
:12:49. > :12:53.I am hugely disappointed no progress has been made on this issue. As a
:12:54. > :12:56.result, the executive had no option but to set aside ?50 million to
:12:57. > :13:10.result, the executive had no option returning to the Treasury, which is
:13:11. > :13:14.now unable to be spent on services that benefit our citizens. Those who
:13:15. > :13:20.resist, Mr Speaker, the inevitability of welfare reform, can
:13:21. > :13:24.answer why our health budget, roads budget or schools budget has to lose
:13:25. > :13:28.out this year. It is my party's view that in terms
:13:29. > :13:33.of the ?15 million of welfare money, that is not dead money. That
:13:34. > :13:41.15 million is still in the pockets of many low income people. It is
:13:42. > :13:44.more likely to be spent, in terms of local economy and retail and other
:13:45. > :13:49.areas. That 15 million is not dead money, it is money that is quite
:13:50. > :13:58.important to the local economy. The differing views of Simon Hamilton
:13:59. > :14:05.and Daithi McKay. With me is Les Allamby, an expert in
:14:06. > :14:08.welfare law. Where do we stand on this complicated issue? All of the
:14:09. > :14:11.main political parties are critical of welfare reform as it is in
:14:12. > :14:16.Britain. You can understand why, because
:14:17. > :14:21.Sheffield Hallam University recently did a survey that said ?750 million
:14:22. > :14:25.will come out of the economy if we slavishly follow the GB reform, and
:14:26. > :14:30.of the local authorities across the UK seven out of the top 20 were
:14:31. > :14:35.actually in Northern Ireland. Where we are is the two main parties in
:14:36. > :14:39.government, Sinn Fein and the DUP, worked very hard over the summer to
:14:40. > :14:42.try and get a deal, and they got a measure of agreement on a number of
:14:43. > :14:47.issues on this in the public domain, such as the bedroom tax
:14:48. > :14:51.which has gone very badly in Britain. They will only introduce it
:14:52. > :14:55.for new claimants. You think that is the deal they have reached? That is
:14:56. > :14:58.not the whole of the deal but it is part of it.
:14:59. > :15:01.There are other parts of the deal, I think they have followed the
:15:02. > :15:05.Scottish model, which is to put more money into what will be called the
:15:06. > :15:11.discretionary support fund here and to do other things. Where the two
:15:12. > :15:15.parties are parting company that at the moment is that is the deal as
:15:16. > :15:16.far as the DUP are concerned, but for Sinn Fein I think the issue is,
:15:17. > :15:30.is that a staging post in the deal? for Sinn Fein I think the issue is,
:15:31. > :15:35.they have an awkward position of, if they implement austerity there in
:15:36. > :15:41.Northern Ireland, they obviously have a very strong equality agenda,
:15:42. > :15:44.but welfare reform will increase economic and social inequality. They
:15:45. > :15:49.are between a rock and a hard place, Sinn Fein. People would say
:15:50. > :15:54.that if the bones of a deal are in existence, the sooner they get it
:15:55. > :15:57.published and signed up to in public the better.
:15:58. > :16:01.Potentially, Northern Ireland plc is losing ?5 million per month now to
:16:02. > :16:05.the Treasury again. We know that has not been imposed as yet, but
:16:06. > :16:10.potentially the amount of money we are going to lose from our budget is
:16:11. > :16:14.significant. We had an earlier legal debate, and
:16:15. > :16:19.there is -- interesting legal debate about how the Treasury can implement
:16:20. > :16:23.the ?5 million financial penalty. Do you think it is a hollow threat? I
:16:24. > :16:26.don't think it is a hollow threat, because they could do it relatively
:16:27. > :16:33.quickly. On the other hand, I think it is
:16:34. > :16:37.clearly important. We would have been pushed into a decision much
:16:38. > :16:40.more quickly if welfare reform and universal credit and Personal
:16:41. > :16:43.Independence Payments had gone with the timetable in Britain, but it's
:16:44. > :16:48.slowed down on the universal credit side because of problems with IP. In
:16:49. > :16:53.my view on the Personal Independence Payments side it has slowed down
:16:54. > :16:56.because it has played very badly for people with disabilities and the
:16:57. > :17:00.government has slowed that down because of an election. Therefore
:17:01. > :17:04.most of the pain will be felt in the early period of the next government.
:17:05. > :17:08.That has given us some breathing space. I would personally like to
:17:09. > :17:12.see what the two parties agree on being published, so that we can see
:17:13. > :17:17.where we are now and then have a debate about other things we may
:17:18. > :17:20.want to do above and beyond that. The two main parties may agree on
:17:21. > :17:24.something of deal to move this forward, but it requires wider
:17:25. > :17:30.society to agree on that. But also, critically, the other
:17:31. > :17:34.parties at Stormont. Absolutely, and both the Ulster
:17:35. > :17:41.Unionist Party, particularly Michael Copeland as the spokesperson, and
:17:42. > :17:44.the SDLP have been largely kept out of the loop, and they are
:17:45. > :17:47.particularly very critical. One of our worries is that what will happen
:17:48. > :17:51.with welfare reform is it will become a political football, whereas
:17:52. > :17:56.actually what we are dealing with is the importance of Social Security
:17:57. > :18:01.for people, particularly of working age, and it may well prove to be
:18:02. > :18:06.counterintuitive, just as the economy is getting back on its feet,
:18:07. > :18:10.that we do the number of things in Social Security that actually take
:18:11. > :18:16.us in the other direction and have a negative impact on economic
:18:17. > :18:20.recovery. It is a tough, bread and butter issue for our politicians to
:18:21. > :18:25.deal with this. What makes it interesting is that it is outside
:18:26. > :18:30.the usual binary political debate. It is. If we look at the local
:18:31. > :18:36.authorities worst affected by this - Belfast, Strabane, Coleraine - it
:18:37. > :18:40.affects heartlands of both the main political parties. This will play
:18:41. > :18:45.very badly in the heartlands of both the DUP and Sinn Fein, and they are
:18:46. > :18:50.both very aware of that. Therefore, the politics of this are really
:18:51. > :18:53.important as well as the actual outcomes for the people on the
:18:54. > :18:59.ground. If the Personal Independence Payments are introduced as it is,
:19:00. > :19:01.then 25% of people of working age under Disability Living Allowance
:19:02. > :19:05.will lose benefit altogether when they move across to that. That is a
:19:06. > :19:10.lot of money coming out of the local economy, a lot of hardship, and that
:19:11. > :19:13.will have to be picked up somewhere else as -- in terms of health or
:19:14. > :19:17.housing problems. In Britain this is happening, other places are happy
:19:18. > :19:22.that Michael having to pick up the slack. It is not saving the money
:19:23. > :19:30.the government originally intended. -- other places are having to pick
:19:31. > :19:35.up the slack. Cathy, do you get the sense that the
:19:36. > :19:43.two main parties are inching toward something of agreement on this?
:19:44. > :19:46.Inching is probably the right word. There is the possibility of an
:19:47. > :19:56.agreement on the horizon, in part driven by
:19:57. > :20:04.agreement on the horizon, in part first quarter of penalties at ?5
:20:05. > :20:09.billion per month. -- 15 million. ?5 million per month. The Treasury has
:20:10. > :20:13.said they will levy the penalty if they did not detect any progress.
:20:14. > :20:18.Progress and agreement are two different things, and I think the
:20:19. > :20:21.two main parties can say they are inching towards an agreed position
:20:22. > :20:25.on this, so they are making progress without moving very fast. The reason
:20:26. > :20:30.for that, I think, is that moving at a slow pace allows the politicians
:20:31. > :20:35.in Northern Ireland to really zone in non-where the problems are in the
:20:36. > :20:37.rest of the UK, so that those mistakes are not made here, for
:20:38. > :20:41.example around the competing problems that they have had. It
:20:42. > :20:45.example around the competing sounds a little bit like a carrot
:20:46. > :20:50.and stick approach on the behalf of the Treasury.
:20:51. > :20:55.Do you think this matter will be sorted out clearly once and for all.
:20:56. > :20:58.No, because I think last year Nelson McCausland said publicly is that
:20:59. > :21:02.four of the six areas he had agreed behind the scenes with the
:21:03. > :21:06.government would be concessions to Northern Ireland.
:21:07. > :21:08.We seem to be no further forward. I find it extraordinary that was not a
:21:09. > :21:14.single party that supports the welfare reforms giving that polling
:21:15. > :21:17.suggest they are popular. -- given that. Let's take a look at the week
:21:18. > :21:32.in 60 seconds with Stephen Walker. It was friends this united as old
:21:33. > :21:38.pals fell out. He was prepared to go forward to the
:21:39. > :21:41.destruction of the party. But the current DUP leader was keeping his
:21:42. > :21:45.own counsel. I do not intend to take part in
:21:46. > :21:49.these kinds of recriminations. Others suggested Doctor Ian Paisley
:21:50. > :21:53.was on his own. What Ian Paisley has done is expose
:21:54. > :21:58.himself as a billy no mates. Another leading man said he would
:21:59. > :22:01.exit the stage - Matt Baggot is to step down as the PSNI chief
:22:02. > :22:05.constable. At Westminster, David Cameron said
:22:06. > :22:05.the government would not intervene and
:22:06. > :22:17.the government would not intervene help, I think we can make progress.
:22:18. > :22:21.Even before it hit the stage, a spoof play on the Bible was shown
:22:22. > :22:30.the final curtain by Newtownabbey Council.
:22:31. > :22:39.Stephen Walker reporting. Cathy, has the dust finally settled on the two
:22:40. > :22:42.Ian Paisley documentaries? I don't think so, I think people
:22:43. > :22:46.will be interested in this story for a long time as the uninterested in
:22:47. > :22:53.any political dynasty. It is of particular interest to us because
:22:54. > :22:58.we're from Northern Ireland. -- as they are interested in any political
:22:59. > :23:03.business -- dynasty. But coups were leaders are
:23:04. > :23:06.overthrown, then we come back to the leader to the previous one who had
:23:07. > :23:10.just been deposed. It is fascinating for us at a local level but this is
:23:11. > :23:16.in practice practising politics internationally.
:23:17. > :23:22.The intriguing place -- the intriguing thing is to wear all of
:23:23. > :23:24.this leaves Ian Paisley junior. Even though he seems to have had limited
:23:25. > :24:05.involvement in