:00:37. > :00:42.Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay
:00:43. > :00:45.As the campaign heads for the final furlong,
:00:46. > :00:50.what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?
:00:51. > :00:53.The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.
:00:54. > :00:56.David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.
:00:57. > :00:59.Many of those tipped for promotion are women.
:01:00. > :01:03.So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or
:01:04. > :01:12.And don't know whether to support Germany or
:01:13. > :01:19.Fear not, we'll bring you our political guide to the World Cup.
:01:20. > :01:21.Coming up here: A peaceful Twelfth at the Ardoyne flashpoint and praise
:01:22. > :01:25.for those involved - but there's still no sign of a resolution. So,
:01:26. > :01:27.what next for Twaddell Avenue? Join me in half-an-hour.
:01:28. > :01:41.It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the
:01:42. > :01:46.Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis
:01:47. > :01:50.we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.
:01:51. > :01:52.And for top political analysis you may
:01:53. > :01:56.as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick
:01:57. > :02:06.David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.
:02:07. > :02:09.The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be
:02:10. > :02:11.in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.
:02:12. > :02:14.The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,
:02:15. > :02:16.reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox
:02:17. > :02:20.is in line for a return to the political front line.
:02:21. > :02:27.But there's general agreement that women will do well and some
:02:28. > :02:30.of the old men in suits guard will do badly.
:02:31. > :02:39.Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.
:02:40. > :02:46.It's good to make parliament more representative.
:02:47. > :02:49.But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create
:02:50. > :02:53.injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.
:02:54. > :03:01.And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being
:03:02. > :03:03.accelerated too far too fast and they come to
:03:04. > :03:09.a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.
:03:10. > :03:23.I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is
:03:24. > :03:31.going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not
:03:32. > :03:36.be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It
:03:37. > :03:43.is an un-written pact in that the media and the government have a
:03:44. > :03:47.great interest in talking it up. The government says, haven't we
:03:48. > :03:51.refreshed ourselves? Generally it doesn't refresh the government.
:03:52. > :03:58.David Cameron wants to send out a new signal. You're going to see the
:03:59. > :04:02.old guard getting a P 45 and you will see a lot of women come in and
:04:03. > :04:09.a lot of younger men. We will find there will be a lot of resignations.
:04:10. > :04:15.A lot of, dear Prime Minister, as I told you 18 months ago, I want to
:04:16. > :04:20.move on. Because the Conservatives have this perception of not being
:04:21. > :04:25.very good with women and not being good with black and ethnic minority
:04:26. > :04:29.voters, they are going to want to do something about that. Why did he
:04:30. > :04:33.voters, they are going to want to do do it before? This reshuffle might
:04:34. > :04:36.be the triumph of the a list. A lot of the women coming through the
:04:37. > :04:42.be the triumph of the a list. A lot ranks have been from the a list
:04:43. > :04:44.which was a half measure because they knew they could not bring all
:04:45. > :04:49.of them in. You are going to they knew they could not bring all
:04:50. > :04:53.more women but that is a result of a long-term strategy.
:04:54. > :04:57.more women but that is a result of a not the world's most raging
:04:58. > :05:00.feminist. He is doing this for practical
:05:01. > :05:04.feminist. He is doing this for an image problem for the party and
:05:05. > :05:12.he has to solve it. He was stung by that picture of the all-male bench
:05:13. > :05:19.at Prime Minister's Questions because visibly it gave you
:05:20. > :05:21.at Prime Minister's Questions about. I do not think he has allowed
:05:22. > :05:24.it to be all-male since that embarrassing image. I can understand
:05:25. > :05:34.the criticism made of this approach women being promoted by talentless
:05:35. > :05:40.but you have to be very harsh to look at them and say that they would
:05:41. > :05:51.have much less to offer than the likes of Andrew
:05:52. > :05:52.have much less to offer than the pro-feminist. The tests for David
:05:53. > :05:55.Cameron is that having pro-feminist. The tests for David
:05:56. > :05:59.expectations he has to give pro-feminist. The tests for David
:06:00. > :06:04.substantial jobs. They have to be given departments to run or big
:06:05. > :06:06.portfolios to carry. If they are given media campaign positions in
:06:07. > :06:14.the run-up to the election it looks perfunctorily. He is under some
:06:15. > :06:19.trouble to perhaps suggest a female commissioner to the European
:06:20. > :06:24.trouble to perhaps suggest a female Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has
:06:25. > :06:30.made clear that if he proposes a woman candidate they will get a
:06:31. > :06:37.better job. Saying they would like ten out of the 28 to be women. We
:06:38. > :06:43.are going to get the name of the British candidate at the same time
:06:44. > :06:49.as the reshuffle. The first face-to-face meeting, he will be
:06:50. > :06:56.able to put a name. There are other names in the frame. People like
:06:57. > :07:05.Archie Norman. That come from? His name is in the frame. There would be
:07:06. > :07:08.great scepticism of giving it to Andrew Lansley. People would think
:07:09. > :07:17.he was the man who mucked up the reform of the NHS. Who is it going
:07:18. > :07:22.to be? Either a woman or a man. I would not be surprised if they go
:07:23. > :07:29.for someone believe dynamic. Someone who would square the party. Would
:07:30. > :07:36.that not mean a by-election? It might. She is a high profile
:07:37. > :07:40.Eurosceptic. She is a very competent former banker. It would be the smart
:07:41. > :07:42.choice. I have no idea but my favourite rumour is Michael Howard.
:07:43. > :07:50.That had some legs for a while. The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street
:07:51. > :07:55.predict with confidence that the PM is going to promote more women
:07:56. > :07:56.in his cabinet reshuffle. The move can be seen as part
:07:57. > :08:00.of a move across British public life to do more to make our institutions
:08:01. > :08:03.less male and less white. But as the list
:08:04. > :08:05.of schemes to encourage diversity grows ever-longer, have we abandoned
:08:06. > :08:20.the idea of appointment by merit? Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for
:08:21. > :08:26.new trains. It does not get more macho than the Crossrail project.
:08:27. > :08:26.When Crossrail looked at the construction industry they realise
:08:27. > :08:38.that less than 20% was made up construction industry they realise
:08:39. > :08:40.women and they asked, can we fix it? They are trying with a recruitment
:08:41. > :08:46.drive that has brought in female engineers like this woman. She even
:08:47. > :08:50.has a tunnel named after her. Having more female engineers and
:08:51. > :08:56.construction brings a bigger range of opinions, a bigger range of
:08:57. > :09:01.ideas, more diversity, into the industry, and makes it better as a
:09:02. > :09:04.whole. It is the issue being grappled in another male dominated
:09:05. > :09:08.workplace, the Cabinet. There is about to be a reach shuffle and the
:09:09. > :09:10.rumour is David Cameron is going to promote a lot of female ministers.
:09:11. > :09:18.It was a lack of promotion that annoyed Harriet Harman this week.
:09:19. > :09:22.She claimed Gordon Brown did not make her Deputy Prime Minister
:09:23. > :09:25.because she was a woman. It was strange that in a hard-fought highly
:09:26. > :09:30.contested election to be deputy leader of the Labour Party, and
:09:31. > :09:34.having won against men in the Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy
:09:35. > :09:39.leader of the Labour Party I discovered that I was not to be
:09:40. > :09:43.appointed as Deputy Prime Minister. For women in this country, no matter
:09:44. > :09:49.how able they are, the matter how hard they might work, they are still
:09:50. > :09:54.not equal. There are initiatives to make the world feel more equal. In
:09:55. > :09:59.the City the EU wants a quarter for women in the boardroom but that goal
:10:00. > :10:04.of making 40% of the top floor female. At the BBC the boss of the
:10:05. > :10:10.TV division says no panel show should ever be all-male. In the ever
:10:11. > :10:14.glamorous movie business the British film Institute announced their new
:10:15. > :10:20.thematic system to get lottery funding projects improving diversity
:10:21. > :10:28.on screen and off and helping social mobility. Employers like Crossrail
:10:29. > :10:32.are not allowed to positively discriminate but under the quality
:10:33. > :10:36.act of 2010 if two candidate for a job are just as good you are allowed
:10:37. > :10:42.to base your decision on characteristics like race, sexuality
:10:43. > :10:48.and gender. Some worry it has chipped away at the idea of hiring
:10:49. > :10:53.on merit. A woman and three men going for a job, two of the men are
:10:54. > :10:57.really good and the woman is not quite as good but she gets the job
:10:58. > :11:04.anyway. That will create injustice, a feeling that she did not deserve
:11:05. > :11:14.the job, resentment. It does not advance equality in society at all.
:11:15. > :11:18.On this project they want to leave a concrete legacy of a more diverse
:11:19. > :11:20.construction industry. The question is, what tools do you use when it
:11:21. > :11:31.comes to the rest of society? I'm joined now by
:11:32. > :11:32.Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a columnist for the Independent,
:11:33. > :11:35.and by Munira Mirza, the deputy mayor of London responsible
:11:36. > :11:48.for education and culture. Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches
:11:49. > :11:55.though. Should David Cameron be promoting women? He is going to do
:11:56. > :12:00.it anyway. He should have a long time ago. It does not feel quite
:12:01. > :12:06.right that a few months before the election it would do the party a lot
:12:07. > :12:11.of good to be seen as a party properly reflective of the entire
:12:12. > :12:15.population. He should promote women because they are women? I think he
:12:16. > :12:18.should think about lots of different factors, whether the people he wants
:12:19. > :12:25.promote have proven themselves in their current reefs, whether they
:12:26. > :12:30.are good performers in the media, whether they represent different
:12:31. > :12:34.parts of the party, but the main principle is to promote on basis of
:12:35. > :12:39.merit. There are many talented women who fill that description. It should
:12:40. > :12:43.be that merit is the important thing rather than what you were born with.
:12:44. > :12:46.The thing about positive discrimination as it flies in the
:12:47. > :12:52.face of that kind of principle. You are shaking your head. We have
:12:53. > :12:59.always had positive discrimination. Men of a certain class have
:13:00. > :13:04.appointed in their own image because they feel most comfortable with
:13:05. > :13:06.that. We have had unspoken positive discrimination in this country and
:13:07. > :13:13.every other country throughout history. We are asking as women, all
:13:14. > :13:19.minorities, let us get into the same game. What do you say? You cannot
:13:20. > :13:25.solve the racism or the sexism of the past by more racism and sexism.
:13:26. > :13:29.It is not the past. There are complex reasons why a smaller number
:13:30. > :13:35.of women will appear in certain industries. It has a lot to do with
:13:36. > :13:39.childcare, education, expected. You cannot short cut that by setting a
:13:40. > :13:43.target. That is not how you achieve equality. Things are changing and
:13:44. > :13:48.more women are appearing in engineering and so on but it will
:13:49. > :13:51.take time. My worry is that these kinds of measures are
:13:52. > :13:52.counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it on
:13:53. > :13:54.their own merit rather counter-productive and undermine the
:13:55. > :14:00.perception that women can do it than because they need a helping hand. It
:14:01. > :14:10.is not a helping hand. It is to say, we are as good as men and these
:14:11. > :14:17.hidden barriers. Dot. Either they are not as good or they do not want
:14:18. > :14:20.it, which ourselves that it is not happening, or there are barriers.
:14:21. > :14:21.it, which ourselves that it is not How we judge meritocracy is at the
:14:22. > :14:30.heart of it. Are lots of How we judge meritocracy is at the
:14:31. > :14:33.won there are not that many women, such as engineering. We need more
:14:34. > :14:37.engineers generally. I such as engineering. We need more
:14:38. > :14:42.fine to try to encourage such as engineering. We need more
:14:43. > :14:50.to study that subject. By setting a target you put pressure on an
:14:51. > :15:11.organisation. You tried to ignore the complex reasons why women do not
:15:12. > :15:21.go into those sectors. I think an all-female short list achieved
:15:22. > :15:25.miracle in Parliament. This is following up from having an
:15:26. > :15:28.injection of women coming up because the system was changed and a large
:15:29. > :15:35.percentage of women went into Parliament under the all-female
:15:36. > :15:43.short list were brilliant, so why not? So if the Prime Minister is
:15:44. > :15:50.mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has to be female and vice versa? Yes,
:15:51. > :16:00.absolutely, 50-50. We need to reflect the population. If we want
:16:01. > :16:05.to play this as a symbolic gesture, ideally we should have one of each.
:16:06. > :16:11.Why should a man get the job if you have a great female prime minister
:16:12. > :16:18.and a great female Deputy Prime Minister? I personally wouldn't mind
:16:19. > :16:28.this. I hear the disgruntled man and I want to come -- them to come with
:16:29. > :16:33.us. You're choosing people on the basis of traits they were born
:16:34. > :16:39.with. Are there too many Indian doctors in the NHS? I would argue
:16:40. > :16:43.not. Given that we tend to have male prime ministers rather than female
:16:44. > :16:50.ones, and we don't see another female one coming down the pipe very
:16:51. > :16:57.quickly... In the time before women short lists by the way. If you had a
:16:58. > :17:03.male prime minister with a female Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that
:17:04. > :17:08.give some balance? Why women? Why not working class person, which
:17:09. > :17:13.group do you prioritise? I would go with you that we need something
:17:14. > :17:17.fundamental to change. This idea that what we have now is a
:17:18. > :17:21.reflection of a genuine meritocracy is highly questionable. I would
:17:22. > :17:23.argue that when you look at the statistics things are changing.
:17:24. > :17:26.argue that when you look at the statistics things There are more
:17:27. > :17:34.women appearing in parts of public life, that is a long-term trend, but
:17:35. > :17:38.if you are trying to appoint people on what they were born with... That
:17:39. > :17:42.is not the only reason but it is an additional reason. She has to be
:17:43. > :17:48.able to do the job, obviously. I am saying the policy of hazard to
:17:49. > :17:52.discrimination explicitly state that you should choose somebody who is
:17:53. > :17:56.female because they are female. At the moment there is already enough
:17:57. > :18:03.suspicion about women who are successful to get to the senior
:18:04. > :18:06.position and if you institutionalise it you reinforce that suspicion.
:18:07. > :18:13.Harriet Harman is still complaining women are not being treated fairly.
:18:14. > :18:16.I think the policy reinforces the prejudice that women are not getting
:18:17. > :18:23.there because they are treated on the same basis. Although you may not
:18:24. > :18:27.want to have the all-female short list forever, wasn't it the kind of
:18:28. > :18:33.shock to the system that made a visible change in female
:18:34. > :18:40.representation, which the Tory side hasn't got? Of course it will work
:18:41. > :18:45.short-term but longer term it has a very degrading effect on the
:18:46. > :18:49.principle of equality and the fact Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't
:18:50. > :18:58.treated equally, whether it is true or not, the perception is still
:18:59. > :19:02.there. A number of women find this position must be reserved for a
:19:03. > :19:10.woman lying patronising, and speaking of patronising women, you
:19:11. > :19:15.spoken your Independent column, she presses all of the buttons for white
:19:16. > :19:21.people... Was that patronising and offensive? Probably. I wrote it
:19:22. > :19:25.because I felt that at the time but the point is that I was a token when
:19:26. > :19:32.I was appointed. The paper brought me in because I was a woman and I
:19:33. > :19:37.was a muslin or whatever. You are not writing about yourself. I was
:19:38. > :19:54.writing... It doesn't mean you don't criticise other women. We absolutely
:19:55. > :20:01.have to be tough, Manira is tough and so am I. Do you want to take
:20:02. > :20:06.back what you wrote? No. Do you really think positive discrimination
:20:07. > :20:12.has gone too far? I think there is already a suspicion out there that
:20:13. > :20:16.in certain sectors women are being promoted for the wrong reasons or
:20:17. > :20:22.ethnic minorities are being promoted for the wrong reasons. That is a
:20:23. > :20:27.shame and my worry is that by tying funding to your ethnicity or your
:20:28. > :20:31.gender, by saying you will get a promotion if you check that box, but
:20:32. > :20:41.you feel that resentment and prejudice and undermine the case for
:20:42. > :20:47.inequality. I wanted to be treated equally, because I am capable of
:20:48. > :20:56.doing that job. Only two months to go before Scotland takes its biggest
:20:57. > :21:01.constitutional decision in 300 years - should it quit or stay with the
:21:02. > :21:06.UK? For some in Scotland campaign has been going on forever. What has
:21:07. > :21:12.been the impact on the campaign to date?
:21:13. > :21:17.Alex Salmond says Scotland would remain part of the European Union
:21:18. > :21:22.with sterling as its currency in a monetary union with the rest of the
:21:23. > :21:28.UK, but he has also promised more public spending, increased child
:21:29. > :21:35.care provision and free personal care for the elderly. The SNP claims
:21:36. > :21:41.it would leave people better off by ?1000 though that partly depends on
:21:42. > :21:47.the price of oil. With the Better Together arguing against
:21:48. > :21:51.independence, it has naturally been attacking the SNP on all fronts.
:21:52. > :21:58.George Osborne says there will be no monetary union. President Barroso
:21:59. > :22:03.told the BBC it would be extremely difficult for Scotland to join the
:22:04. > :22:17.EU after a yes vote. His successor this week said he agreed. Unions
:22:18. > :22:24.claim Scotland benefit by ?1400 by being part of the UK. A poll this
:22:25. > :22:30.morning shows a significant lead of 57% for the no campaign, leaving the
:22:31. > :22:35.SNP to claim it will go their way in the last ten weeks. Nicola Sturgeon,
:22:36. > :22:39.the Deputy First Minister of Scotland, joins me now. You want an
:22:40. > :22:47.independent Scotland to keep the pound, stay in NATO, stay in the
:22:48. > :22:51.EU, Scotland already has all of that but you cannot guarantee it would
:22:52. > :22:59.have any of it in an independent Scotland, why take the risk? All of
:23:00. > :23:02.these things should be the case because they are in the best
:23:03. > :23:08.interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK but we want the powers to
:23:09. > :23:14.enable us to grow our economy faster, to be productive, and
:23:15. > :23:19.overtime increased the prosperity of people living in Scotland. We also
:23:20. > :23:25.want powers over our social security system so that we can create a
:23:26. > :23:29.system that meets our needs, one that also has a safety net for the
:23:30. > :23:36.most vulnerable people in our society. Independence is about
:23:37. > :23:40.letting us decide our own priorities. You didn't answer my
:23:41. > :23:44.question, you cannot guarantee you would be able to keep the pound
:23:45. > :23:50.within a monetary union, stay in NATO and the EU, you cannot
:23:51. > :23:54.guarantee you could produce any of these things, correct? I would argue
:23:55. > :24:00.that we can because these things are also in the interest of the rest of
:24:01. > :24:05.the UK. No country can be prevented from using the pound, I suggest we
:24:06. > :24:10.use that within a formal monetary union. We have had the UK minister
:24:11. > :24:15.quoted in the Guardian saying the position of the UK Government right
:24:16. > :24:19.now is one based on campaign rhetoric and following a yes vote,
:24:20. > :24:27.of course there would be a currency union. Who is that minister? The
:24:28. > :24:31.Minister is unnamed, but nevertheless that story in the
:24:32. > :24:37.Guardian was a solid one and not substantially denied. So you are
:24:38. > :24:46.basing your monetary policy on one on named minister in one story?
:24:47. > :24:51.Basing it on Common sense because monetary union would be in the best
:24:52. > :24:55.interests for Scotland but also overwhelmingly in the interests of
:24:56. > :25:00.the rest of the UK, given their trading relationship with Scotland
:25:01. > :25:08.and the contribution Scotland's exports make. We are having a very
:25:09. > :25:19.good debate and the UK Government and the no campaign, and this is not
:25:20. > :25:24.a criticism, want to talk up in -- uncertainty to make people feel
:25:25. > :25:28.scared, but after independence there will be constructed process of
:25:29. > :25:31.negotiation. Let's stick with the monetary union because most
:25:32. > :25:35.economists agree it would be very good for an independent Scotland to
:25:36. > :25:41.have a monetary union but George Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander
:25:42. > :25:47.are unequivocal, they say you won't get it. You claim they are bluffing
:25:48. > :25:51.but again you cannot guarantee that so why the risk? I would say the
:25:52. > :25:55.benefits of independence are substantial but I would also say to
:25:56. > :25:59.George Osborne and his counterparts in the other parties that it would
:26:00. > :26:04.be a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK
:26:05. > :26:07.that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of half
:26:08. > :26:10.a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK
:26:11. > :26:15.that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of
:26:16. > :26:19.half. What we are doing is making a case that is based on common sense
:26:20. > :26:25.and voters in Scotland will listen to that case being put forward by
:26:26. > :26:33.the other side as well, and they will come to a judgement of the
:26:34. > :26:37.common-sense position. Let's look at EU membership because you haven't
:26:38. > :26:47.been able to guarantee the monetary union. When President Barroso said
:26:48. > :26:50.that a seamless transition to EU membership for an independent
:26:51. > :26:55.Scotland was anything but certain, and one said it could even be
:26:56. > :27:04.impossible, you dismissed him because he was standing down, but
:27:05. > :27:11.been -- venue EU president says the same, do you dismissed him? What we
:27:12. > :27:16.are doing... I should say at the outset of this, we have said
:27:17. > :27:20.repeatedly to the UK Government, let's go jointly and ask for a
:27:21. > :27:24.formal opinion on the EU commission. The EU commission have
:27:25. > :27:31.said they will only do that at this stage if the UK Government ask for
:27:32. > :27:37.it, they are point blank refusing to do that, you have to ask why? It is
:27:38. > :27:42.in their interests to talk up uncertainty. Scotland is an integral
:27:43. > :27:49.part of the European Union, we have been for 40 years, we comply with
:27:50. > :27:54.the rules and regulations... Mr Juncker knows all of that but he
:27:55. > :27:59.still says it will be anything but a seamless transition. He said you
:28:00. > :28:11.could not join the European Union by sending a letter, that is not our
:28:12. > :28:16.proposal. We set down a robust proposal and the timescale we think
:28:17. > :28:22.is reasonable under these circumstances. There are many
:28:23. > :28:27.nationals of other states living in Scotland right now, if we were to be
:28:28. > :28:31.outside of the European Union for any period of time, something the
:28:32. > :28:36.current treaty doesn't even provide for, they would lose their right to
:28:37. > :28:40.stay here. The interests of Scotland and the interests of European Union
:28:41. > :28:45.are in favour of a seamless transition. It comes down to common
:28:46. > :28:45.sense and people in Scotland will make
:28:46. > :28:50.sense and people in Scotland will their own judgement on who is
:28:51. > :28:56.talking the common-sense. What about NATO, two years ago you told
:28:57. > :29:02.Newsnight the SNP's position is that we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a
:29:03. > :29:06.democratic debate, we looked at whether it would be in the interests
:29:07. > :29:13.of an independent Scotland, which forms a significant part of the
:29:14. > :29:19.territory of the North Atlantic and the party changed its mind. It did
:29:20. > :29:27.so in a thoroughly democratic way. That is the nature of democracy.
:29:28. > :29:38.Would you accept the protection of the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is
:29:39. > :29:47.no doubt the SNP's position is that we do not want nuclear weapons in
:29:48. > :29:50.Scotland. That is not what I asked. The world rid themselves of nuclear
:29:51. > :29:54.weapons. One of the interesting point is of the 28 member countries
:29:55. > :29:59.of Natal 25 do not have nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland...
:30:00. > :30:11.I asked if you would accept the nuclear umbrella. The key feature of
:30:12. > :30:18.NATO's military dog train is now clear shrike. We would accept the
:30:19. > :30:24.basis of which NATO is founded but we would argue two things. We want
:30:25. > :30:27.Trident removed from Scotland rather than have a situation where might we
:30:28. > :30:33.are spending ?100 billion over the next generation replacing Trident
:30:34. > :30:37.and we would argue within the international community that the
:30:38. > :30:41.world should move much more quickly to rid itself of nuclear weapons.
:30:42. > :30:46.That is the principal position and won the SNP has held consistently
:30:47. > :30:52.for many years. You would get rid of one of the key parts of the NATO
:30:53. > :30:56.deterrent based in Scotland. You would kick that out. You would not
:30:57. > :31:02.accept all of the club rules because you do not like the idea of nuclear.
:31:03. > :31:07.Why would they like a member like you in? Because Scotland is a
:31:08. > :31:13.significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic. You do not
:31:14. > :31:18.subscribe to the rules. 25 of the member states of NATO are
:31:19. > :31:25.non-nuclear members. You are saying you do not follow the doctrine. NATO
:31:26. > :31:29.has said it wants to move away from reliance on nuclear weapons. An
:31:30. > :31:34.independent Scotland would be entering the majority mainstream of
:31:35. > :31:39.NATO as a country that did not have nuclear weapons. By leading by
:31:40. > :31:44.example our moral authority and encouraging others to do likewise
:31:45. > :31:49.would be increased. Money and oil, the finance minister has said that
:31:50. > :31:52.an independent Scotland would increase public spending by 3% a
:31:53. > :31:57.year. He would pay for that by borrowing. Your First Minister says
:31:58. > :32:03.he is going to stash money in an oil fund. You're going to borrow and
:32:04. > :32:10.save. How does that work? There are two points. Firstly in terms of the
:32:11. > :32:15.outlook for finances and what is one of the central debates of this
:32:16. > :32:18.referendum campaign, austerity that we know will continue if we stay as
:32:19. > :32:24.part of the Westminster system versus prosperity. The economy can
:32:25. > :32:28.afford a higher level of increase in public spending while we continue to
:32:29. > :32:34.have deficit levels at a sustainable level. What is the point of
:32:35. > :32:39.borrowing and saving at the same time? People who have a mortgage and
:32:40. > :32:45.the savings account would not themselves what the wisdom of that
:32:46. > :32:48.is. This is based on recommendations of our expert fiscal Commission that
:32:49. > :32:54.as borrowing reduces to sustainable levels it makes sense to start
:32:55. > :33:00.saving a proportion of our oil wealth. In Norway, which has many
:33:01. > :33:06.similarities to Scotland, they have an oil fund worth ?500 billion.
:33:07. > :33:11.Scotland is part of the Westminster system is sitting on a share of UK
:33:12. > :33:17.debt. We can continue to allow our oil wealth, our vast oil wealth, to
:33:18. > :33:20.be mismanaged or we can decide we are going to manage that resource
:33:21. > :33:27.better in the years to come. Your figures do not add up unless you are
:33:28. > :33:31.about oil prices and revenue and you have been consistently wrong in your
:33:32. > :33:38.predictions. Last year you forecast that revenues would be the .7
:33:39. > :33:46.billion more than they actually work -- 3.7 billion. The cost of the
:33:47. > :33:50.Scottish school system gone. There were particular reasons for that in
:33:51. > :33:54.terms of interruption to production and bigger levels of investment.
:33:55. > :34:00.Used ill have to find the money. Let me explain. They are based on robust
:34:01. > :34:04.assumptions, firstly a production estimates that is in line with the
:34:05. > :34:08.estimates of the oil and gas industry. Use of figures that are
:34:09. > :34:16.based on production of 10 billion barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been
:34:17. > :34:22.wrong as well. It is 24 billion left to be recovered. That is what is in
:34:23. > :34:28.the UK Government's oil and gas strategy so production in line with
:34:29. > :34:31.industry estimates and an oil price of $110 per barrel which is flat in
:34:32. > :34:39.cash terms would be a real terms reduction. The Department of energy
:34:40. > :34:43.is estimating $128 per barrel so our estimate compared to that is
:34:44. > :34:50.cautious. These are robust estimates based on robust assumptions. Except
:34:51. > :34:56.they have been wrong. Finally, we hear a lot from you and your fellow
:34:57. > :35:01.nationalists, you want a Scandinavian style social democracy,
:35:02. > :35:04.you know how to spend the money but you never tell us about social
:35:05. > :35:08.democratic levels of taxation. Also should grizzlies have higher levels
:35:09. > :35:15.of tax in Scotland does at the moment -- all social grizzlies. I
:35:16. > :35:21.want a Scottish style of social democracy. Free education, free
:35:22. > :35:27.medicines and balancing the books every single year. We want to get
:35:28. > :35:31.more people into work in Scotland, raise the level of distribution in
:35:32. > :35:34.the Labour market and make the economy more productive so we are
:35:35. > :35:40.raising the overall tax revenue. Over the last 33 years we have
:35:41. > :35:47.generated more taxpayer head of population than is the case and the
:35:48. > :35:51.rest of the UK. Those last 33 years, some of those years oil prices would
:35:52. > :35:56.have been high and in others they would have been law but we take
:35:57. > :35:59.different decisions. A report showed that if we go as part of the
:36:00. > :36:07.Westminster system down the plate -- route of replacing Trident then the
:36:08. > :36:12.cost will be as high as ?4 billion every year. Our share of that is the
:36:13. > :36:16.hundred million pounds a year. Let us get access to our own resources
:36:17. > :36:20.so we can make different and better decisions about how to spend the
:36:21. > :36:25.resources we have. You are promising Scandinavian style social democratic
:36:26. > :36:30.levels of public spending but you say you will not need a top rate of
:36:31. > :36:39.tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia has, that all 25%, which is what
:36:40. > :36:43.Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You are going to have the spending but
:36:44. > :36:49.none of the taxes that make it possible in Scandinavia. For
:36:50. > :36:55.mischievous reasons you are met -- misrepresenting what I am saying.
:36:56. > :36:59.The Scottish economy can afford it and we want to generate more wealth
:37:00. > :37:04.in our economy. We want to use the existing resources Scotland has. We
:37:05. > :37:09.are the 14th richest country in the world in terms of what we produce.
:37:10. > :37:13.We do not want to be wasting resources. We want to be spending
:37:14. > :37:17.resources on the things that other priority for the people of Scotland.
:37:18. > :37:22.These are the benefits and the opportunities really get if we take
:37:23. > :37:33.the opportunity of voting yes and becoming independent.
:37:34. > :37:44.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:37:45. > :37:46.No resolution to the controversial Ardoyne parade,
:37:47. > :37:51.but no violence either, after a generally peaceful Twelfth weekend.
:37:52. > :37:53.But what's the next step to ending the stand-off?
:37:54. > :37:55.I'll be talking to the North Belfast DUP MP Nigel Dodds
:37:56. > :38:01.With me throughout the programme are Jim Flanagan of the Ballymena
:38:02. > :38:11.Guardian and Professor Peter Shirlow from Queen's University.
:38:12. > :38:13.So, there's been something of a collective sigh of relief that
:38:14. > :38:16.the Twelfth of July weekend has seen no repeat of the violence
:38:17. > :38:20.of recent years at the Ardoyne flashpoint in North Belfast.
:38:21. > :38:24.Members of the local Ligoniel lodges were prevented from returning past
:38:25. > :38:27.the Ardoyne shops on the Crumlin Road by a Parades Commission
:38:28. > :38:29.ruling - a ruling that the wider Orange family disputed,
:38:30. > :38:44.However, the Orange Order remains adamant its campaign will continue.
:38:45. > :38:52.We have united unionism around this issue and shattered the myth that we
:38:53. > :38:56.stand alone. As we speak there are protest parades the length and
:38:57. > :38:59.breadth of the problems. Do not underestimate the significance of
:39:00. > :39:07.the six minute stoppage earlier today by every orange man and banned
:39:08. > :39:13.on parade. That stoppage says to the world that the Justice and hatred
:39:14. > :39:20.that stops people expressing their culture along a show called Sheard
:39:21. > :39:27.Road. Six minutes. The tide is turning. Far from going away, we are
:39:28. > :39:31.preparing to enhance our campaign and our efforts are being redoubled
:39:32. > :39:37.politically and through further peaceful and lawful means. The more
:39:38. > :39:51.and the SDLP MLA for the area, Alban Maginness.
:39:52. > :39:56.Things passed off peacefully, as you and others hoped they would. Does
:39:57. > :40:02.that transformed the landscape and others hoped they would. Does
:40:03. > :40:07.the future? It is a very positive development. All of us were very
:40:08. > :40:11.pleased at the end of the day at how things worked out, in north Belfast
:40:12. > :40:17.in particular. There was a lot of tension, anger and frustration at
:40:18. > :40:22.the Parades Commission. People felt strongly that threats of republican
:40:23. > :40:30.violence had won the day. Nevertheless, the unity of purpose
:40:31. > :40:33.and leadership at all levels and the positive engagement of a range of
:40:34. > :40:40.people on the ground managing the situation they deliver a dignified
:40:41. > :40:46.protest and a strong message, but done in a peaceful and lawful way.
:40:47. > :40:51.That enables us to have a strong platform to move forward. You could
:40:52. > :40:54.argue that the Parades Commission got it right because it would just a
:40:55. > :40:58.response that everybody is happy with. I don't think you can take
:40:59. > :41:04.that from that at all. There was leadership and begin -- a unity of
:41:05. > :41:07.purpose that resulted in a peaceful day. That is what we always wanted
:41:08. > :41:14.purpose that resulted in a peaceful to see. We have been very clear
:41:15. > :41:15.throughout the years at Ardoyne that we did not want violence. The vast
:41:16. > :41:19.bulk violence have come from
:41:20. > :41:25.republicanism, violence have come from
:41:26. > :41:28.dissident republicanism as violence have come from
:41:29. > :41:39.2012. That is the issue that needs to be addressed. Can we allow
:41:40. > :41:43.threats of violence from republicans to sway decision-making in Northern
:41:44. > :41:46.Ireland? The Parades Commission has created a position that needs to be
:41:47. > :41:56.addressed. The issue has not gone away. There is a concentration and
:41:57. > :41:59.determination more broadly than in North Belfast at all levels of
:42:00. > :42:06.unionism to make sure this issue is probably addressed. Do you think
:42:07. > :42:10.things have changed for the better? I think we should banquet
:42:11. > :42:14.things have changed for the better? achieved yesterday. That was a
:42:15. > :42:20.peaceful Twelfth, by and large. That is an important step forward. I
:42:21. > :42:26.think we have one a bit of space and time to try and resolve the problem
:42:27. > :42:31.in Ardoyne on a negotiated basis between the two communities. And to
:42:32. > :42:41.find a local resolution to this particular problem. I think that has
:42:42. > :42:44.been won by the good sense of those both on the unionist side and the
:42:45. > :42:50.nationalist side. Would you pay tribute to Unionist leaders? They do
:42:51. > :42:57.pay tribute. It is what they should have been saying all along. I think
:42:58. > :43:04.it is important that people on the Unionist side, on the leadership
:43:05. > :43:07.side, they keep repeating to their reporters that the determination of
:43:08. > :43:11.the Parades Commission, although they may not like that
:43:12. > :43:15.determination, that it should in fact be complied with and any
:43:16. > :43:20.protests that there might be should be peaceful. I certainly believe
:43:21. > :43:26.that that is progress and if we can continue that way I think we can
:43:27. > :43:32.create an atmosphere where we have very positive negotiations. What
:43:33. > :43:38.impact will this have on the psyche of Unionist leaders and the Unionist
:43:39. > :43:43.rank and file and people in the Orange Order, to hear political
:43:44. > :43:50.opponents actually giving you credit. I assume isn't something
:43:51. > :43:56.that you are very used to! Martin McGuinness and the police constable
:43:57. > :44:00.both said very positive things, as the church leaders. Does that help
:44:01. > :44:03.for the future because people are getting credit for a different
:44:04. > :44:09.approach? Many make it clear that Unionist leaders and the Orange
:44:10. > :44:15.Order have always been forthright in their denunciation of violence and
:44:16. > :44:22.have always been clear in their call for peaceful demonstrations or
:44:23. > :44:24.protests. The last year at Twadell Avenue has been peaceful. Every
:44:25. > :44:29.Saturday there is a parade there and it has been peaceful. That is not an
:44:30. > :44:34.accident, it has been work on the ground by people in the community,
:44:35. > :44:45.Orange Order and politicians. It has been very hands-on. It has. What has
:44:46. > :44:53.happened is that people have taken this issue and there is now a unity
:44:54. > :44:56.of purpose around at a high political level, as well as local
:44:57. > :45:01.level and there is a determination to acknowledge right across the
:45:02. > :45:05.board on the part of unionists to make sure that others acknowledge
:45:06. > :45:10.the seriousness of this issue and how it can impinge on other issues.
:45:11. > :45:15.What we need to do is build on what we have achieved so far, but
:45:16. > :45:23.recognise that the problem is not resolved and there are real issues
:45:24. > :45:27.there. Does it allow a bit more wriggle room to be built into the
:45:28. > :45:34.negotiation process, which might allow some kind of compromise to be
:45:35. > :45:40.produced? It will depend on whether the words of republicans and
:45:41. > :45:44.nationalists are actually translated into action. All we are asking for
:45:45. > :45:49.is tolerance and respect. The six minutes that it takes to walk down
:45:50. > :45:54.the road in the morning, which was done with great tolerance and
:45:55. > :46:03.respect in terms of both the Orange Order and residents, that could not
:46:04. > :46:07.be repeated in the evening. Let's see whether or not the breathing
:46:08. > :46:11.space created is translated into action, not just in words from
:46:12. > :46:17.nationalist leaders but in terms of their actions to put their talk of
:46:18. > :46:21.tolerance and respect into action. Has that breathing space been
:46:22. > :46:26.created? I think it has. We need to work very hard and almost
:46:27. > :46:33.immediately to try to recreate the dialogue that was suspended prior to
:46:34. > :46:39.the Twelfth. I think the principles of tolerance and respect are
:46:40. > :46:45.important principles. I would hope that we could create a compromise in
:46:46. > :46:51.Ardoyne around those two principles. It is very important to have local
:46:52. > :46:55.community engagement and I believe that all of us politicians should be
:46:56. > :47:05.encouraging it. What about this issue that Nigel Dodds raises, how
:47:06. > :47:09.come the community in Ardoyne can put up at the parade going down the
:47:10. > :47:15.road but will not bring any discussion about going back up in
:47:16. > :47:21.the afternoon? I don't think there is any contradiction there. If you
:47:22. > :47:29.listen to the judgement of the judge in the High Court last week whenever
:47:30. > :47:33.he commented upon the situation, he said it was quite clear that there
:47:34. > :47:38.are significant differences between the morning parade and an afternoon
:47:39. > :47:43.or evening parade. He made that very clear. If a High Court judge comes
:47:44. > :47:47.to that conclusion and if the Parades Commission comes to that
:47:48. > :47:52.conclusion, it is fair and reasonable for the residents to come
:47:53. > :47:57.to that conclusion as well. Can we get into a few specifics? The
:47:58. > :48:01.Parades Commission ruling is the same as it was last year. I am told
:48:02. > :48:04.by a senior figure in the Parades Commission that there has to be
:48:05. > :48:11.overwhelming evidence brought to the table that will change an existing
:48:12. > :48:19.decision. How do we move this forward? How do you draw the sting
:48:20. > :48:23.out? How do you put the Ardoyne stand-off in the past tense so we
:48:24. > :48:28.don't have to go through what we have been through again in 12
:48:29. > :48:37.months? It comes down to the tolerance and respect on both sides.
:48:38. > :48:40.That has to be the case. It can't be a denial of fundamental rights. We
:48:41. > :48:45.need to exercise those rights on both sides in a way which promotes
:48:46. > :48:50.tolerance and respect. In relation to the Parades Commission and what
:48:51. > :48:53.has been said, every application has to be judged on its merits. I am a
:48:54. > :48:57.bit concerned when to be judged on its merits. I am a
:48:58. > :49:02.from inside the Parades Commission indicate that things have to be
:49:03. > :49:05.different in order to make a different decision because each
:49:06. > :49:13.application for each parade has to be judged on its own merits. That is
:49:14. > :49:17.an important point of principle. The point is, if nothing has changed,
:49:18. > :49:23.there is no evidence to change things, then the previous ruling
:49:24. > :49:27.will inevitably stand. I understand what you're saying. There was change
:49:28. > :49:30.this year in the sense that there had been intense dialogue directly
:49:31. > :49:36.involving the Orange order with residents, and with the Orange order
:49:37. > :49:49.and the Parades Commission, and despite of all that they still ruled
:49:50. > :49:53.against the Orange Order. Also, the potential for disorder, and that
:49:54. > :49:56.disorder was coming from republicans. That is a very
:49:57. > :50:02.disorder was coming from destabilising and worrying
:50:03. > :50:13.development. 12 months ago the violence came
:50:14. > :50:22.development. 12 months ago the sides. Yes, the violence
:50:23. > :50:25.development. 12 months ago the violence that has ruled the
:50:26. > :50:30.Commission in terms of what they decided to do in 2012, over the last
:50:31. > :50:35.two years. What the Parades Commission said is that there has to
:50:36. > :50:40.be sustained and sincere dialogue and respect for the determinations
:50:41. > :50:45.of the Parades Commission. That was not the situation. If that changes,
:50:46. > :50:51.the Parades Commission will have to consider that, but nothing as yet
:50:52. > :50:52.there has changed in that direction. Let's pause this discussion for a
:50:53. > :50:56.moment. the Queen's academic Pete Shirlow
:50:57. > :51:10.and the journalist Jim Flanagan. Peter, what do you make of what has
:51:11. > :51:17.happened over the last couple of days? There is a breathing space.
:51:18. > :51:21.Management and negotiation, although those talks broke down in June, we
:51:22. > :51:27.are seeing a very different attitude. Even within the Orange
:51:28. > :51:34.Order, what has happened in Derry with the apprentice boys, talking
:51:35. > :51:39.has been the key to resolution. I think what we are witnessing is a
:51:40. > :51:42.wake-up call in many ways for those who would claim to represent both
:51:43. > :51:46.sides. They are starting to understand that there has to be a
:51:47. > :51:58.process that has taken much further than it has been. Unionism has to
:51:59. > :52:04.make sure when they talk about respect and parity of esteem, what
:52:05. > :52:10.that means, as well. The language needs to be put into real action and
:52:11. > :52:14.positive outcomes. Is there a breathing space? Has the landscape
:52:15. > :52:20.changed? I think certainly the fact that the parade yesterday passed his
:52:21. > :52:24.fully means there should be credit given all round. It doesn't change
:52:25. > :52:27.the fundamentals. There is a potent cop tale of grievance in the
:52:28. > :52:33.unionist community about this parade. It is important that while
:52:34. > :52:37.there may be a breathing space it doesn't last indefinitely. There is
:52:38. > :52:42.a temptation to think it is over, so that is OK until next year. We
:52:43. > :52:45.should grasp the nettle now. I interviewed the police constable on
:52:46. > :52:53.Thursday night when he does not want to send 100 peace officers up to
:52:54. > :52:58.Twadell Avenue every night, costing ?40,000 a day. We always say that,
:52:59. > :53:02.but we never talk about it until the next June! There is a more focused
:53:03. > :53:12.attempt now being made to deal with this. 40 years ago the Ulster
:53:13. > :53:17.workers Council strike led to many people being injured. We still have
:53:18. > :53:21.the effect of that. We are in a different place. We should start to
:53:22. > :53:29.celebrate that a bit more. They are difficult issues, but they are not
:53:30. > :53:35.taking us back to the past. Will the nettle be grasped, or will we put it
:53:36. > :53:42.on the long finger until 11 months's time? I trust not. The
:53:43. > :53:50.problem over the past year was that the dialogue commenced in April.
:53:51. > :53:54.That was far too late in the day. It only continued up until the
:53:55. > :54:01.beginning of June. I think Jim makes an important point, the nettle is
:54:02. > :54:04.being grasped because the Unionist leaders have said that we have a
:54:05. > :54:08.plan, we have called for a commission of enquiry, we are
:54:09. > :54:14.meeting the Secretary of State to talk about that. There will be a
:54:15. > :54:18.high level and serious engagement as of now right through. The
:54:19. > :54:21.seriousness of this and the unity of purpose and the peaceful conditions
:54:22. > :54:32.that were brought about yesterday to create an opportunity for us. I need
:54:33. > :54:37.to ask you about the front-page story, saying the Peter Robinson
:54:38. > :54:41.will stand down in September and there are arrangements in place for
:54:42. > :54:46.a seat in the Lords. Typical tabloid rubbish. We normally have a silly
:54:47. > :54:52.season that starts in August, but it has started early. I am always
:54:53. > :54:58.reminded when I read things like this journalist should be as
:54:59. > :55:12.accountable politicians. They just invent new stories. So, no truth
:55:13. > :55:20.whatsoever? None whatsoever. There are of rumours! -- there are lots of
:55:21. > :55:22.rumours! Thank-you both for now -
:55:23. > :55:25.we'll hear more from you later. Now, with the political year
:55:26. > :55:28.at an end, time for a look back at some of the moments that stood
:55:29. > :55:45.out for us - and there was no If it is just a few small areas of
:55:46. > :55:59.outstanding disagreement, you might come back one further push? I don't
:56:00. > :56:03.see the need for that. We have had a good campaign and is
:56:04. > :56:10.our honoured by the people who have voted. It is essential that we get
:56:11. > :56:14.out the truth of all that went on in order to restore public confidence
:56:15. > :56:20.that has been so seriously damaged by this deal. Let us step up to the
:56:21. > :56:26.plate, start grappling with the real issue is not manufactured ones.
:56:27. > :56:33.Ethnic minorities have been attacked and I feel vulnerable when I walk on
:56:34. > :56:38.the street. I am innocent of any involvement in any conspiracy to
:56:39. > :56:45.conduct -- abduct or very Jean McConville. What is the political
:56:46. > :56:51.lesson you have learned? Don't start a political party with Basil McCrea.
:56:52. > :56:59.How are you keeping? Fine, thank you very much.
:57:00. > :57:17.People are waiting to find out what the graduated response means in
:57:18. > :57:22.reality. I think there is quite a serious situation that is developing
:57:23. > :57:33.up there. We have other issues as well, the June monitoring round
:57:34. > :57:40.remains unresolved, the OTR to. Nothing about the welfare reform
:57:41. > :57:45.stand-off either. There will always be in. What we need to start doing
:57:46. > :57:59.this year is be more positive. We have the city of culture in Derry.
:58:00. > :58:07.We have seen the Giro d'Italia. The crisis that we have today do not
:58:08. > :58:10.send us back to the past any more. A younger generation is being turned
:58:11. > :58:15.off by politics and I think that is probably the real crisis. Despite
:58:16. > :58:19.the protests, reconciliation projects will continue. What is
:58:20. > :58:25.happening on the ground is important.
:58:26. > :58:28.Let's pause for a moment and take a look back
:58:29. > :58:34.at the political week gone past in 60 seconds with Martina Purdy.
:58:35. > :58:42.Unionists may like to give the graduated response to a ruling on a
:58:43. > :58:47.parade in north Belfast. A denial of cultural expression will have a
:58:48. > :58:55.consequence. Friends in high places, the Taoiseach talks about the
:58:56. > :58:58.cancelled Garth Brooks constructs. I am very disappointed that it won't
:58:59. > :59:04.happen. The row over the decision by a bakery not to make a cake mated to
:59:05. > :59:12.a Westminster. In terms to those of different sexes, tolerance and
:59:13. > :59:16.equality of people with different sexualities, all of that is a very
:59:17. > :59:25.important part of being British. It was awards night. Was it Danny in
:59:26. > :59:28.like read that did it? Nobody put Peter Robinson into it? The winner
:59:29. > :59:41.of Best Minister is Simon Hamilton! Simon Hamilton, the Best Minister? I
:59:42. > :59:47.think it is a very good Simon Hamilton, the Best Minister? I
:59:48. > :59:52.has a great grasp of his brief and is dealing really well with the
:59:53. > :00:01.problems that the welfare cuts are creating. It was a draw between Jim
:00:02. > :00:13.Allister and Anna Lo for the best MLA? Two very different people!
:00:14. > :00:23.Democracy is the right to express your opinion. Anna Lo spoke very
:00:24. > :00:27.well about the race issue. Jim Allister is the Rottweiler who will
:00:28. > :00:30.always be there. People may dislike him in many ways for certain aspects
:00:31. > :00:33.of those politics, but what we do like is the role he plays of
:00:34. > :00:35.questioning the accountability of the Assembly.
:00:36. > :00:48.will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.
:00:49. > :00:50.So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including
:00:51. > :00:53.a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and
:00:54. > :01:13.Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make
:01:14. > :01:20.a difference? It will make a difference because we have
:01:21. > :01:25.established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and
:01:26. > :01:33.why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent
:01:34. > :01:36.and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed
:01:37. > :01:48.this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed
:01:49. > :01:54.through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international
:01:55. > :01:59.examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon
:02:00. > :02:04.passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of
:02:05. > :02:07.control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled
:02:08. > :02:16.down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for
:02:17. > :02:20.this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a
:02:21. > :02:23.principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,
:02:24. > :02:27.which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous
:02:28. > :02:31.relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a
:02:32. > :02:36.controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is
:02:37. > :02:40.on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church
:02:41. > :02:48.against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is
:02:49. > :02:54.stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who
:02:55. > :02:59.can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who
:03:00. > :03:03.can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is
:03:04. > :03:07.potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of
:03:08. > :03:11.Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of
:03:12. > :03:18.England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please
:03:19. > :03:23.withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court
:03:24. > :03:27.kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of
:03:28. > :03:33.three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that
:03:34. > :03:38.banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,
:03:39. > :03:47.but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to
:03:48. > :03:52.decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament. In
:03:53. > :04:01.record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson
:04:02. > :04:05.and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the
:04:06. > :04:12.establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great
:04:13. > :04:17.quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act
:04:18. > :04:23.and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to
:04:24. > :04:27.look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.
:04:28. > :04:31.There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about
:04:32. > :04:35.drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look
:04:36. > :04:41.something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is
:04:42. > :04:51.right or is the political establishment right? I think the
:04:52. > :04:57.establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We
:04:58. > :04:59.are in a unique position where all three political parties have
:05:00. > :05:04.relatively recent experience of government so they now that security
:05:05. > :05:11.threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation
:05:12. > :05:17.being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I
:05:18. > :05:23.do not see the political controversy. All three political
:05:24. > :05:31.parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always
:05:32. > :05:35.are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but
:05:36. > :05:42.a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political
:05:43. > :05:48.controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy
:05:49. > :05:54.about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,
:05:55. > :06:03.it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys
:06:04. > :06:07.setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have
:06:08. > :06:14.serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out
:06:15. > :06:20.in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have
:06:21. > :06:21.said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public
:06:22. > :06:25.school. For many English football fans,
:06:26. > :06:27.tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick
:06:28. > :06:31.between two traditional foes Well, if you're
:06:32. > :06:34.a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the
:06:35. > :06:37.nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced
:06:38. > :06:52.a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,
:06:53. > :06:57.it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing
:06:58. > :07:01.and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group
:07:02. > :07:07.with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems.
:07:08. > :07:10.There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over
:07:11. > :07:12.authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it
:07:13. > :07:22.through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the
:07:23. > :07:26.worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The
:07:27. > :07:31.left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and
:07:32. > :07:36.authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives
:07:37. > :07:45.remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the
:07:46. > :07:51.semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking
:07:52. > :07:54.on Catholics South America. With one victory
:07:55. > :07:57.on Catholics South America. With one Brazil and Argentina beating the
:07:58. > :08:01.Dutch, tonight's final repeats that pattern. Who will win? Angela
:08:02. > :08:11.Merkel's Germany or Argentina? We're joined now
:08:12. > :08:24.by Britain's only Labour adviser Should we read political
:08:25. > :08:28.significance in to the fact that the only time England has won the World
:08:29. > :08:34.Cup was under a Labour government? Of course. The problem is we did not
:08:35. > :08:38.qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a Labour government. We have had some
:08:39. > :08:44.pretty shoddy results under a Labour government. As someone under the
:08:45. > :08:50.left, are you backing Argentina? Absolutely not. I do not think it
:08:51. > :08:59.has anything to do with politics. It is a bit of fun. People should
:09:00. > :09:03.choose it is Don Hoop plays the best football and the Germans have been
:09:04. > :09:09.fantastic. They were great in 2010 as well. They started this model in
:09:10. > :09:14.2008 and that is the sort of thing people should be supporting. Who
:09:15. > :09:20.should a Eurosceptic support? I would not say Argentina because that
:09:21. > :09:25.is the country that has tried to seize British sovereign territory
:09:26. > :09:31.within my lifetime. You were not around for the Blitz. Believe it or
:09:32. > :09:35.not, I was not. There is a strong political case to support Germany.
:09:36. > :09:48.They are probably going to win the World Cup with a clear of -- with
:09:49. > :09:52.players of Polish origin. That sort of cultural change they have forced
:09:53. > :09:59.themselves to go through... You talk about them being right wing, but in
:10:00. > :10:07.fact the way that the German league is structured, and I am an expert,
:10:08. > :10:11.is based on ownership. It is very different from the Premier League.
:10:12. > :10:18.It is about football as a usual good. The ticket prices are lower.
:10:19. > :10:26.The fans are involved in running the club. It is a model that all English
:10:27. > :10:32.football clubs should emulate. Germany had a strong football team
:10:33. > :10:39.under centre right governments and centre left governments and a
:10:40. > :10:46.coalition. A strong football team and a strong economy. The
:10:47. > :10:50.Conservative MP who is the arch Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of
:10:51. > :10:56.the European Union and was for a few weeks ago when people were making
:10:57. > :11:01.jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker, he was outraged and said you should not
:11:02. > :11:07.do that, so he could happily support Germany. What was interesting about
:11:08. > :11:12.the authoritarian and democratic regimes, what is great is that the
:11:13. > :11:24.World Cup is run by this open and democratic organisation Fifa. It is
:11:25. > :11:31.similar to the EU in many regards. Two countries led by women. Maybe
:11:32. > :11:37.gender is the thing. We did not win under Margaret Thatcher. There's one
:11:38. > :11:45.big difference with the EU, you cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go
:11:46. > :11:58.to a European summit. Did you know that Italy won two world cups under
:11:59. > :12:00.Mussolini? Can we draw any conclusions between a political
:12:01. > :12:06.system and the performance of the football team? You can draw certain
:12:07. > :12:12.parallels between maybe national cliches, so the Germans are
:12:13. > :12:16.efficient and effective, which might reflect and the English are very
:12:17. > :12:21.polite so we let everyone score first and go into the second round.
:12:22. > :12:27.We put ourselves at the back of the queue. Is England going to qualify
:12:28. > :12:37.for the European? We are going to win the European Championship. The
:12:38. > :12:45.first country Scotland have to play is Germany. What could possibly go
:12:46. > :12:56.wrong? Who is going to win? Germany. Germany. I am going to put a few bob
:12:57. > :13:03.on Argentina. Are you going to be watching? Absolutely. Thank you.
:13:04. > :13:08.This is the last Sunday Politics for the summer.
:13:09. > :13:11.But we'll be back in early autumn and our first programme will be live
:13:12. > :13:17.from Scotland, the weekend before the referendum
:13:18. > :13:22.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at noon and we'll bring you
:13:23. > :13:25.the last PMQs before the summer on Wednesday morning from 11:30am.
:13:26. > :13:29.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless