:00:38. > :00:40.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:41. > :00:46.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:47. > :00:47.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:48. > :00:53.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:54. > :01:00.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:01. > :01:03.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:04. > :01:06.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:07. > :01:15.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:16. > :01:32.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:33. > :01:38.priced out are choosing And joining me, three of the
:01:39. > :01:42.country's most loyal journalists, who sadly have yet to resign or
:01:43. > :01:45.defect to our inferior rivals. Nick Watt,
:01:46. > :01:52.Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh. And, of course, they'll be
:01:53. > :01:55.tweeting throughout the programme. And you too can get involved
:01:56. > :01:59.by using the hashtag #BBCSP. At the current rate of Tory
:02:00. > :02:01.resignations, Mr Cameron could be speaking to an
:02:02. > :02:05.empty hall when he makes his keynote address to the Tory conference here
:02:06. > :02:08.in Birmingham tomorrow. It's been a classic car crash of a
:02:09. > :02:12.start to the conference, with a UKIP defection, a minister shamed into
:02:13. > :02:16.resignation by a sex scandal and Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look
:02:17. > :02:22.like a little local difficulty. Here's what
:02:23. > :02:39.the Prime Minister had to say These things are frustrating and
:02:40. > :02:43.frankly counter-productive and rather senseless. If you want to
:02:44. > :02:46.have a European referendum, if you want to get the deficit down, if you
:02:47. > :02:52.want to build a stronger Britain that we can be proud of, there is
:02:53. > :02:52.only one option, which is to have a Conservative government after the
:02:53. > :02:54.next election. And Mark Reckless joins me now
:02:55. > :03:06.from Rochester. Welcome to the programme. Why did
:03:07. > :03:12.you lie to all your Conservative colleagues and mislead those who
:03:13. > :03:15.elected you? Well, I am keeping faith with my constituents and
:03:16. > :03:19.keeping my promises to them. You heard the Prime Minister saying that
:03:20. > :03:23.the Conservative led government was dealing with the deficit and cutting
:03:24. > :03:28.immigration. The reality is, we have increased the national debt by more
:03:29. > :03:31.in five years than even Labour managed in 13, and immigration is
:03:32. > :03:36.back up to the levels we saw under Labour. I believe in the promises I
:03:37. > :03:40.made in 2010, and I want to keep my words to my electorate, not least to
:03:41. > :03:45.deal with the deficit, cut immigration, reform the political
:03:46. > :03:47.system, to localise powers back to the community, particularly over
:03:48. > :03:52.house-building. The government has broken its word on all those things
:03:53. > :03:56.are. I want to keep my word to my voters here, and that is why I have
:03:57. > :04:02.done what I have done, by moving to UKIP. You have not kept your words
:04:03. > :04:06.to your Conservative constituency chairman. You assured him 48 hours
:04:07. > :04:11.ago that you would not defect, and you left his voice mail on the
:04:12. > :04:15.Conservative Party chairman's office telephone, missing to come to
:04:16. > :04:18.Birmingham to campaign for the Tories. This is your voice mail... I
:04:19. > :04:42.have just picked up your e-mail... So, Friday night, telling Grant
:04:43. > :04:49.Shapps you are coming to Birmingham to campaign for the Tories. The next
:04:50. > :04:53.day, you are joining UKIP. Why did you are a? I sounded a bit more
:04:54. > :04:57.hesitant on that call than I usually do, and I am not sure if that was
:04:58. > :05:01.the full conversation. But you cannot discuss these things in
:05:02. > :05:05.advance, you have to make a decision. I have decided the future
:05:06. > :05:10.of this country is better served by UKIP then it is by the Conservative
:05:11. > :05:18.Party under David Cameron. I made a lot of promises to my constituents,
:05:19. > :05:25.and I want to keep those promises. That is why I am moving to UKIP, so
:05:26. > :05:32.I can deliver the change this country really needs. In May of this
:05:33. > :05:37.year, you said that Nigel Farage, quote, poses the most serious threat
:05:38. > :05:41.to a Tory victory at the election. So, you agree, voting UKIP means a
:05:42. > :05:46.Labour government? I think voting UKIP means getting UKIP. While in
:05:47. > :05:48.the past a disproportionate number of UKIP people were
:05:49. > :05:53.ex-Conservatives, now, they are winning a lot more people, from all
:05:54. > :05:55.parties. People are so disillusioned with the political class in
:05:56. > :06:00.Westminster, that they have not voted often for a generation. Those
:06:01. > :06:05.are the people Nigel Farage is inspiring, and frankly, he has also
:06:06. > :06:09.inspired me. What he has done in the last 20 years, building his party,
:06:10. > :06:13.getting people from all walks of life, sending up for ordinary
:06:14. > :06:17.people, I think deserves support. That is a key reason why I am
:06:18. > :06:25.moving. UKIP are now the agents of change. You said it poses them a
:06:26. > :06:29.serious threat to a Tory victory? My ambition is not a Tory victory. We
:06:30. > :06:34.made all of these promises in 2010 as Conservatives, and they have been
:06:35. > :06:36.broken. We now hear from David Cameron about English votes for
:06:37. > :06:42.English laws, supported by Nick Clegg as well, but that is what we
:06:43. > :06:45.said in our manifesto in 2010, and we have done absolutely nothing
:06:46. > :06:51.about it. It is not credible now to pretend that you are going to do
:06:52. > :06:55.those things. They have omitted to give every Scot ?1600 per year in
:06:56. > :07:00.definitely. If you want to stand up for the English taxpayer, and really
:07:01. > :07:10.tackle the debt, then UKIP are the party who will do that. But there is
:07:11. > :07:14.nothing principled about this, this is just an attempt to save your
:07:15. > :07:20.skin. You said UKIP stopped you winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand
:07:21. > :07:23.in 2010, and you won. You are frightened that UKIP would beat you
:07:24. > :07:28.in the next election, this is to save your skin to me you think I am
:07:29. > :07:32.doing this because I am frightened, you think this is the easy option,
:07:33. > :07:44.to abandon my position in Parliament, but my principles on the
:07:45. > :07:47.line? On the contrary, you look at MPs who have moved party before,
:07:48. > :07:52.almost none of them have given their voters to chance to have a say on
:07:53. > :07:55.what they have done. I am asking permission from my voters, and I am
:07:56. > :07:59.moving to UKIP because I believe many of the people in my
:08:00. > :08:02.constituency have been let down by a Conservative led government, and
:08:03. > :08:07.that what UKIP is saying appeals to decent, hard-working people, who
:08:08. > :08:13.want to see real change in our country. If they do not agree, then
:08:14. > :08:19.they can vote in a by-election and have their say on who they want to
:08:20. > :08:26.be their MP. I am being open and honest, giving people a say. I am
:08:27. > :08:29.trying to do the right thing by my constituents, and whatever the risk
:08:30. > :08:34.is to me personally, I think it is the right thing to do. It is what
:08:35. > :08:39.MPs should be in politics to try and do for the people they represent.
:08:40. > :08:45.Your defection, coming after Douglas Carswell's, confirms the claim that
:08:46. > :08:50.UKIP is largely a depository for disaffected right-wing Tories like
:08:51. > :08:53.yourself, isn't it? On the contrary, the number of people I met in
:08:54. > :08:58.Doncaster yesterday was extraordinary. When I first went to
:08:59. > :09:01.Conservative conferences 20 years ago, there was some enthusiasm for
:09:02. > :09:05.politics, I remember Norman Tebbit speaking against Maastricht, people
:09:06. > :09:09.fought they could change things, there was real politics. But I do
:09:10. > :09:13.not think you will see that at Birmingham this week, it is PR
:09:14. > :09:18.people, lobbyists, corporate, few ordinary members of. At Ancaster,
:09:19. > :09:23.people had saved up for months just to get the rail ticket to Doncaster.
:09:24. > :09:30.People who believe in UKIP, who believe in Nigel Farage, who believe
:09:31. > :09:32.in the team, as agents of change, who can actually deal with a
:09:33. > :09:40.political class at Westminster which has let able down. We want proper
:09:41. > :09:45.reform to the political system, which David Cameron promises but
:09:46. > :09:50.does not deliver. Final question - after the next election, the Prime
:09:51. > :09:53.Minister is going to be either David Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the
:09:54. > :10:00.choice, one or the other - who would you prefer? Well, what we would
:10:01. > :10:06.prefer is to get the most UKIP policies implemented. We want a
:10:07. > :10:11.first rate we want to deal with immigration. I asked about who you
:10:12. > :10:17.wanted to be Prime Minister. We will look at the circumstances. We need
:10:18. > :10:30.as many UKIP MPs as possible, to restore trust in politics. If people
:10:31. > :10:33.vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How serious is
:10:34. > :10:37.vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:38. > :10:39.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again.
:10:40. > :10:41.destroyed John Major, and it has beginning to feel like the worst
:10:42. > :10:45.days of Labour beginning to feel like the worst
:10:46. > :10:51.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:52. > :10:55.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:56. > :11:00.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:01. > :11:02.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:03. > :11:06.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:07. > :11:12.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:13. > :11:17.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:18. > :11:21.of us were not around in the 1980s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:22. > :11:24.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose, the
:11:25. > :11:28.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:29. > :11:31.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:32. > :11:35.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:36. > :11:39.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:40. > :11:45.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:46. > :11:50.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:51. > :11:54.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:55. > :12:01.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:02. > :12:06.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:07. > :12:11.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:12. > :12:16.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:17. > :12:21.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:22. > :12:24.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:25. > :12:30.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:31. > :12:35.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:36. > :12:38.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:39. > :12:43.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:44. > :12:47.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:48. > :12:53.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:54. > :13:00.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:01. > :13:03.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:04. > :13:08.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:09. > :13:20.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:21. > :13:22.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:23. > :13:27.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:28. > :13:32.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over 1,000 councillors -
:13:33. > :13:35.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:36. > :13:48.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:49. > :13:52.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:53. > :13:55.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:56. > :14:01.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:02. > :14:07.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:08. > :14:11.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:12. > :14:15.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:16. > :14:22.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:23. > :14:27.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:28. > :14:31.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:32. > :14:34.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:35. > :14:44.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:45. > :14:47.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:48. > :14:52.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:53. > :14:58.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:59. > :15:10.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:11. > :15:19.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:20. > :15:23.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:24. > :15:28.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:29. > :15:33.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:34. > :15:37.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:38. > :15:44.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:45. > :15:49.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:50. > :15:56.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:57. > :16:01.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:02. > :16:11.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:12. > :16:15.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:16. > :16:22.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:23. > :16:28.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:29. > :16:33.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:34. > :16:39.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:40. > :16:47.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:48. > :16:51.way by setting a rule like that, it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:52. > :16:57.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:58. > :17:03.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:04. > :17:08.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:09. > :17:15.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:16. > :17:19.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:20. > :17:25.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:26. > :17:31.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:32. > :17:35.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:36. > :17:39.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:40. > :17:43.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:44. > :17:48.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:49. > :17:55.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:56. > :18:01.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:02. > :18:05.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:06. > :18:07.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:08. > :18:12.trust the party leadership to defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:13. > :18:16.deliver on Europe, do they? They believe people like you and David
:18:17. > :18:23.Cameron will campaign to stay in and they are right. They said before
:18:24. > :18:23.they defected that people should vote
:18:24. > :18:31.they defected that people should referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:32. > :18:36.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:37. > :18:40.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:41. > :18:46.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:47. > :18:50.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:51. > :18:55.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:56. > :19:01.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:02. > :19:06.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:07. > :19:12.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:13. > :19:17.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:18. > :19:23.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:24. > :19:27.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:28. > :19:32.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:33. > :19:38.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:39. > :19:43.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:44. > :19:47.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:48. > :19:56.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:57. > :19:59.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:00. > :20:07.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:08. > :20:13.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:14. > :20:17.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:18. > :20:21.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:22. > :20:30.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:31. > :20:34.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:35. > :20:37.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:38. > :20:42.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:43. > :20:48.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:49. > :20:52.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:53. > :20:59.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher...
:21:00. > :21:04.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:05. > :21:13.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:14. > :21:17.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:18. > :21:20.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:21. > :21:28.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:29. > :21:35.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:36. > :21:48.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:49. > :21:54.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,000,
:21:55. > :22:12.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250,000
:22:13. > :22:20.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:21. > :22:25.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:26. > :22:29.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:30. > :22:36.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:37. > :22:40.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:41. > :22:46.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:47. > :22:52.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:53. > :22:58.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:59. > :23:02.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:03. > :23:07.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:08. > :23:14.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:15. > :23:18.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:19. > :23:22.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:23. > :23:27.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:28. > :23:31.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:32. > :23:35.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:36. > :23:40.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:41. > :23:45.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:46. > :23:53.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:54. > :23:59.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:00. > :24:09.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:10. > :24:15.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:16. > :24:19.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:20. > :24:26.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:27. > :24:31.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:32. > :24:36.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:37. > :24:39.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:40. > :24:43.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:44. > :24:47.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:48. > :24:53.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:54. > :24:58.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:59. > :25:03.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:04. > :25:08.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:09. > :25:13.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:14. > :25:18.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:19. > :25:25.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:26. > :25:32.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:33. > :25:36.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:37. > :25:41.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:42. > :25:46.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:47. > :25:51.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:52. > :25:57.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:58. > :26:01.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:02. > :26:06.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:07. > :26:10.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:11. > :26:16.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:17. > :26:22.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:23. > :26:27.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:28. > :26:33.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:34. > :26:38.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:39. > :26:41.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:42. > :26:46.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:47. > :26:52.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:53. > :26:56.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:57. > :27:01.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:02. > :27:06.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:07. > :27:15.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:16. > :27:20.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:21. > :27:25.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:26. > :27:29.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:30. > :27:35.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:36. > :27:41.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:42. > :27:43.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we
:27:44. > :27:47.tax-raising powers... It goes all commitment on that, we will keep our
:27:48. > :27:52.commitments to Scotland as commitment on that, we will keep our
:27:53. > :27:59.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:00. > :28:04.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:05. > :28:09.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:10. > :28:14.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:15. > :28:19.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:20. > :28:24.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:25. > :28:28.there will be English votes for English laws after the election?
:28:29. > :28:32.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:33. > :28:35.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:36. > :28:41.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:42. > :28:47.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:48. > :28:49.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:50. > :28:52.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:53. > :28:54.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:55. > :29:03.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:04. > :29:07.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:08. > :29:12.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:13. > :29:17.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:18. > :29:22.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:23. > :29:25.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:26. > :29:30.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:31. > :29:34.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:35. > :29:37.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:38. > :29:50.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:51. > :29:53.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:54. > :30:01.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:02. > :30:03.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:04. > :30:09.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:10. > :30:15.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:16. > :30:19.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:20. > :30:22.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:23. > :30:28.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:29. > :30:31.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:32. > :30:37.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:38. > :30:40.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:41. > :30:46.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:47. > :30:50.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:51. > :30:55.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:56. > :30:59.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:00. > :31:04.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:05. > :31:07.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:08. > :31:10.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:11. > :31:18.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:19. > :31:24.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:25. > :31:25.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:26. > :31:36.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:37. > :31:40.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:41. > :31:45.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:46. > :31:48.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:49. > :31:52.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:53. > :31:56.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:57. > :32:04.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:05. > :32:09.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:10. > :32:16.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:17. > :32:24.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:25. > :32:27.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:28. > :32:33.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:34. > :32:37.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:38. > :32:41.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:42. > :32:47.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:48. > :32:50.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:51. > :32:56.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:57. > :33:02.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:03. > :33:07.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:08. > :33:11.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:12. > :33:14.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:15. > :33:18.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:19. > :33:22.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:23. > :33:28.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:29. > :33:32.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:33. > :33:36.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:37. > :33:40.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:41. > :33:45.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:46. > :33:49.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:50. > :33:52.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:53. > :33:58.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:59. > :34:03.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:04. > :34:08.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:09. > :34:13.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:14. > :34:19.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:20. > :34:23.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:24. > :34:27.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:28. > :34:34.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:35. > :34:39.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:40. > :34:44.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:45. > :34:49.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:50. > :34:53.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:54. > :34:56.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:57. > :35:01.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:02. > :35:07.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:08. > :35:15.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:16. > :35:19.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:20. > :35:25.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't.
:35:26. > :35:30.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:31. > :35:33.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:34. > :35:38.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:39. > :35:44.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:45. > :35:47.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:48. > :35:54.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:55. > :35:58.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:59. > :36:03.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:04. > :36:08.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:09. > :36:15.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:16. > :36:21.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless, it
:36:22. > :36:26.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:27. > :36:32.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:33. > :36:35.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:36. > :36:43.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:44. > :36:47.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:48. > :36:52.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:53. > :36:56.of the legal advice at the time, and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:57. > :37:02.given to us by the Law officers. Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:03. > :37:06.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:07. > :37:11.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:12. > :37:14.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:15. > :37:24.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:25. > :37:27.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:28. > :37:29.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:30. > :37:31.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:32. > :37:36.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:37. > :37:46.minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello, and welcome to Sunday
:37:47. > :37:49.Politics in Northern Ireland. Why won't the Executive discuss
:37:50. > :37:55.the problem of looming budget cuts? We ask the party's
:37:56. > :37:57.Education Minister, John O'Dowd, Theresa Villiers takes centre
:37:58. > :38:01.stage at the Conservative party We'll get a flavour of what she'll
:38:02. > :38:07.be telling delegates in Birmingham. And with me throughout with
:38:08. > :38:09.their thoughts - journalists It's been quite a week for the DUP,
:38:10. > :38:21.and the First Minister in particular,
:38:22. > :38:23.who had to head off what looked like It all started with
:38:24. > :38:27.a major reshuffle at Stormont which saw the Health Minister,
:38:28. > :38:31.Edwin Poots, replaced by Jim Wells. Mr Poots then sparked speculation
:38:32. > :38:34.about Peter Robinson's future He, in turn, was quickly slapped
:38:35. > :38:38.down by Mr Robinson, who branded Then, in a bizarre
:38:39. > :38:43.but very modern show of support, a torrent of Twitter messages followed
:38:44. > :38:48.online as MP and MLA alike followed each other to demonstrate their
:38:49. > :38:52.undying support for their leader. Some commentators detected a lack
:38:53. > :38:57.of enthusiasm in messages from Mr Poots and Paul Givan, who's to lose
:38:58. > :39:02.his job on the Justice Committee. Let's hear from my guests
:39:03. > :39:16.of the day, journalists Liam Clarke Thank you for joining us. Liam, do
:39:17. > :39:21.you remember anything like this as far as the DUP is concerned? No,
:39:22. > :39:27.they are usually on message through a crisis. The nearest thing you
:39:28. > :39:32.could think of was Iris Robinson when everyone pulled behind the
:39:33. > :39:38.leader. There is a lot of disarray in the ranks now. Whether Peter
:39:39. > :39:41.Robinson has reasserted his authority, we will know shortly, he
:39:42. > :39:47.has shown he is a leader and is prepared to punish his enemies or
:39:48. > :39:52.people who criticise him, he cast Edwin Poots into outer darkness, and
:39:53. > :39:58.Paul Givan, who was seen as a rising star in the party is also
:39:59. > :40:02.diminished, so we will see if that sticks. Dearbhail McDonald,
:40:03. > :40:07.observing things from a distance from Dublin, did you get a sense the
:40:08. > :40:15.rebellion had been put down or could it rumble on? I was watching it
:40:16. > :40:19.mostly on Twitter because Enda Kenny was also having a difficult week
:40:20. > :40:25.with internal strife. I was watching an online with a mix of or,
:40:26. > :40:27.amusement and hover, looking at the North Korean style support on
:40:28. > :40:34.Twitter for the dear leader was amusing but I think it Robinson may
:40:35. > :40:39.have dampened at but there may be huge problems for the DUP. They are
:40:40. > :40:44.normally on message but seem to be in disarray for this week. It
:40:45. > :40:50.highlights the two factions that seem to make up the DUP, the
:40:51. > :40:56.Robinson wing, which seems to have the upper hand now, then the older
:40:57. > :41:03.Paisley when, people like Paul Givan, Edwin Poots, Ian Paisley
:41:04. > :41:11.Junior, what role is there for them in the party in future? That is
:41:12. > :41:14.difficult to say. My own impression is that Peter Robinson is has
:41:15. > :41:19.dampened it for the time being but I think Edwin Poots may be proved
:41:20. > :41:23.right and he will not be leader for the next general election. There is
:41:24. > :41:29.speculation about when he may go that you think it will last for a
:41:30. > :41:34.period of months but not for years. A new leader comes in, he will have
:41:35. > :41:40.to try to appease those internal factions. You have to remember about
:41:41. > :41:45.the DUP that their activist based is very Orange Order, the largest
:41:46. > :41:51.religious do nomination is Free Presbyterian, this came out in a
:41:52. > :41:56.University of Liverpool survey, and that doesn't give a leader much
:41:57. > :42:03.wriggle room and is not necessarily an activist base that represents
:42:04. > :42:04.voters, so there is a tension there. We will hear more from both of you.
:42:05. > :42:06.Thank you. The Executive is running out
:42:07. > :42:08.of time to agree a budget that will see the Assembly
:42:09. > :42:11.through to the election in 2016. Sinn Fein has been blamed for
:42:12. > :42:14.delaying discussions on the matter and has re-emphasised its opposition
:42:15. > :42:16.to introducing welfare reform here. The Finance Minister,
:42:17. > :42:19.Simon Hamilton, told me on The View on Thursday that he'd tried,
:42:20. > :42:34.and failed, to raise the matter I think that was welcomed by other
:42:35. > :42:40.Executive members, some said while they didn't agree with everything in
:42:41. > :42:45.the paper, they respected the need to have a proper adult conversation
:42:46. > :42:50.about a sensitive issue. What was contained was what I outlined to the
:42:51. > :42:54.Deputy First Minister and fortnight ago, contained in a briefing given
:42:55. > :43:00.by officials in my department to the Executive last Thursday, so this is
:43:01. > :43:03.information everyone in Sinn Fein have had from a fortnight ago.
:43:04. > :43:05.We needed to have a proper mature discussion
:43:06. > :43:11.It was clear the general area where things had to be dealt with,
:43:12. > :43:14.but we simply couldn't get agreement round the table to have that
:43:15. > :43:17.That bit of the fault is almost entirely with
:43:18. > :43:23.Sinn Fein, because other parties were prepared to discuss it.
:43:24. > :43:25.The Alliance leader, David Ford, and the DUP's Simon Hamilton.
:43:26. > :43:28.Joining me now is Sinn Fein's Education Minister, John O'Dowd.
:43:29. > :43:31.Why didn't Sinn Fein support a proper discussion of
:43:32. > :43:37.Simon Hamilton's paper at last Thursday's Executive meeting?
:43:38. > :43:47.We had a paper delivered to us at 3pm on Wednesday with ?200 million
:43:48. > :43:51.of cuts to public services. For a debate and decision at 3pm on
:43:52. > :43:57.Thursday. That is unacceptable. It would be irresponsible for any
:43:58. > :44:03.politician to make decisions based on a 24 hour period on a paper that
:44:04. > :44:08.if it merits discussion should be issued a week beforehand. Simon
:44:09. > :44:14.Hamilton said not a single member of Sinn Fein didn't know about that six
:44:15. > :44:21.weeks ago -- two weeks ago. He personally briefed them. It is one
:44:22. > :44:25.thing being briefed on cuts to services but when you receive a
:44:26. > :44:30.formal document to decide on, you need time to discuss it. When I
:44:31. > :44:38.received that I was surprised to find there was a bid for ?10 million
:44:39. > :44:45.from my department. I haven't made a bid for my own department, I may
:44:46. > :44:49.not. But the point is discuss it, the other parties or up for
:44:50. > :44:54.discussing it except for Sinn Fein. There was a discussion at the
:44:55. > :45:00.Executive but what was looked for was a decision and we refuse to make
:45:01. > :45:04.a decision based on 24 hours to analyse it. It wasn't a formal
:45:05. > :45:11.discussion, it wasn't formally tabled. When I receive a document
:45:12. > :45:16.with a bid from my department which I have not made, my first question
:45:17. > :45:22.is, if this bid has been made on behalf of my department, how valued
:45:23. > :45:27.are the sons attributed to other departments, so all the figures
:45:28. > :45:35.deserve to be drilled down further. -- the songs attributed. So discuss
:45:36. > :45:40.it further. A fortnight ago I DUP Health Minister said he would need
:45:41. > :45:44.?100 million board the health service would collapse, so in the
:45:45. > :45:51.space of a fortnight it changed by ?87 million. That proves you
:45:52. > :45:54.shouldn't rush into these decisions. Your critics say you are sticking
:45:55. > :46:00.your head in the sand and hoping it will go away. We have made a call
:46:01. > :46:05.for the welfare bill to be brought onto the floor of the Assembly, to
:46:06. > :46:12.be debated for MLAs to have their say on it, for citizens to have
:46:13. > :46:16.their say. The first duty of the new DST Minister will be to bring the
:46:17. > :46:23.welfare bill onto the floor of the Assembly. -- DST. You also need to
:46:24. > :46:27.agree a budget for 2016 soon or Assembly. -- DST. You also need to
:46:28. > :46:35.will be in default with the Treasury and unable to provide this letter of
:46:36. > :46:38.comfort. Simon Hamilton is looking at ?200 million of cuts in the next
:46:39. > :46:44.financial year. How would you address that issue? The first people
:46:45. > :46:49.we should give comfort to is the people we represent. Some parties
:46:50. > :46:54.seem more concerned about the needs of civil servants in the Treasury
:46:55. > :46:59.than the citizens we serve. But they will all be affected by the cuts.
:47:00. > :47:06.That is our first concern, the people who elect us. 66,000 people
:47:07. > :47:11.who are currently on benefits, cannot work because of illness, will
:47:12. > :47:16.see a cut to their welfare payments if welfare cuts are introduced. One
:47:17. > :47:18.in three people on personal dependence payments will see a cut
:47:19. > :47:23.as well, every family dependence payments will see a cut
:47:24. > :47:29.now who are on family tax credits will face a cut as a result of
:47:30. > :47:34.welfare cuts. Lots of people will be affected if you don't deal with the
:47:35. > :47:40.issue. The library service is now letting people go. A scheme has been
:47:41. > :47:47.put in place to allow civil servants to take redundancy. Lots of people
:47:48. > :47:50.not necessarily directly affected by welfare reform will be affected if
:47:51. > :47:55.you don't discuss the issue and resolve it. We have not said we will
:47:56. > :48:01.not discuss it that we will not discuss it in a 24-hour framework
:48:02. > :48:08.and with a document which is flawed. It deserves to be analysed, we will
:48:09. > :48:13.analyse that with the figures attributed to departments and make a
:48:14. > :48:17.decision based on that. What about the people who work for departments
:48:18. > :48:21.or are in receipt of funding from other government departments, who if
:48:22. > :48:27.you're budget in education and health budget are protected would be
:48:28. > :48:34.looking at an eye watering figure of 14% of cuts in the next financial
:48:35. > :48:38.year? That is my argument, that we need time to consider all the
:48:39. > :48:44.implications of the October monitoring paper. If you were
:48:45. > :48:48.serious about discussing it, you would have talked about it on
:48:49. > :48:53.Thursday. David Ford said this is a major problem, we have a hole in our
:48:54. > :48:59.budget, let's clear our dairies and deal with it on Friday. Other
:49:00. > :49:04.parties agreed. Other parties didn't agree, they were looking the
:49:05. > :49:08.decision. We will reach a decision upon it but it has to be based on
:49:09. > :49:15.actual figures attribute double two each department with the evidence to
:49:16. > :49:21.back it up. When will Sinn Fein you ready to discuss this serious
:49:22. > :49:26.issue? We will discuss it throughout the week and when we are ready to
:49:27. > :49:31.make a decision we will. And having received that briefing from Simon
:49:32. > :49:37.Hamilton two weeks ago, you felt out into it on Thursday? The document
:49:38. > :49:44.for decision arrived at 3pm on Wednesday for a decision on
:49:45. > :49:46.Thursday. Do you think your department and the health department
:49:47. > :49:54.should be given special treatment and other departments have to take
:49:55. > :50:00.big cuts? I don't receive any special treatment. The services I
:50:01. > :50:04.deliver in terms of education I think should be protected. More
:50:05. > :50:10.important than other arms of government? Let's see the
:50:11. > :50:17.implications of a bad education system. If we cut services in
:50:18. > :50:21.education we will see greater under attainment, young people ending up
:50:22. > :50:27.in the justice system, unemployed and more pressure on the health
:50:28. > :50:32.service, so let's continue to invest in education and build a better
:50:33. > :50:35.society. I imagine Danny Kennedy would say we need to protect roads,
:50:36. > :50:42.we need to attract investment, Arlene Foster would say we need to
:50:43. > :50:48.promote tourism. Let's look at the reasons why the cuts are taking
:50:49. > :50:54.place. We focus on welfare cuts but most cuts are being affected because
:50:55. > :51:02.our block grant diminishes. Bath block grant is now ?10 million and
:51:03. > :51:07.it is forecast by 2020 the average spell and in population will fall,
:51:08. > :51:12.so how can the Executive continued to function if we have an economic
:51:13. > :51:17.policy which is reducing public spending year on year? Simon
:51:18. > :51:21.Hamilton made it clear on Thursday that this is happening because
:51:22. > :51:27.Martin McGuinness is not a free agent and cannot deal with these
:51:28. > :51:30.issues. He would like to resolve welfare reform but his strings are
:51:31. > :51:35.being pulled by Gerry Adams and others. Is that true? You mean Gerry
:51:36. > :51:41.Adams being the leader of the party? I am surprised that comes as
:51:42. > :51:47.news. Gerry Adams is the leader of Sinn Fein. Martin McGuinness is the
:51:48. > :51:56.Deputy First Minister in Northern Ireland. Which represents all the
:51:57. > :51:59.people in Ireland. Martin McGuinness is Deputy First Minister and carries
:52:00. > :52:06.out that function well at the leader is Gerry Adams. So Simon Hamilton is
:52:07. > :52:12.right? That is what you've said. That is not my terminology. You said
:52:13. > :52:20.Gerry Adams tells Martin McGuinness what to do. We have a collective
:52:21. > :52:25.leadership. Gerry Adams is the ultimate leader, where is the
:52:26. > :52:30.surprise? So that ties in with what you are saying, Martin McGuinness
:52:31. > :52:36.may have wanted to do a deal and may have been told he could not by Gerry
:52:37. > :52:39.Adams. That did not happen. Martin McGuinness understand the
:52:40. > :52:43.consequences of welfare cuts and their impact on society. I have
:52:44. > :52:49.given you the shocking figures, 66,000 people who will see benefits
:52:50. > :52:58.cut, Martin McGuinness understands that. Thank you, John O'Dowd, let's
:52:59. > :53:03.hear from Liam Clarke and Dearbhail McDonald. What do you make about
:53:04. > :53:09.that wider debate about who is in charge of Sinn Fein? There would be
:53:10. > :53:16.a view downsized but it is all about 2016. All eyes are on the general
:53:17. > :53:23.election and people may feel Gerry Adams's focus is on getting into
:53:24. > :53:28.power in the Republic and the North. The focus from politics up north is
:53:29. > :53:32.that Sinn Fein are angling to be in government and yet people are
:53:33. > :53:37.saying, can they make the tough decisions, can they take these,
:53:38. > :53:41.because they are opposed to austerity in the South yet people
:53:42. > :53:46.are asking if they are fit for government, so that is why it has
:53:47. > :53:52.been closely watched and there is a suspicion that perhaps Sinn Fein and
:53:53. > :53:56.the DUP will allow the Assembly to collapse so they do not have to take
:53:57. > :54:01.responsibility. If you have lived in the Republic in the last six years
:54:02. > :54:06.and dealt with austerity and cuts we have had to endure as a result of
:54:07. > :54:11.the crisis, the collapse in people's income, the huge
:54:12. > :54:15.unemployment, we have done austerity and the question for Sinn Fein is,
:54:16. > :54:24.are they man enough to take these decisions they seem incapable of
:54:25. > :54:28.appear? The, just a sentence. The reason they couldn't make the
:54:29. > :54:35.decision on Thursday seems to be they have two if to the hard-core
:54:36. > :54:39.leadership. Thank you. That's back they had to affair. -- they had to
:54:40. > :54:43.refer to the leadership. Stormont's politicians will be
:54:44. > :54:45.watching keenly as the Secretary of State addresses the Conservative
:54:46. > :54:47.Party conference this afternoon. She's been facing calls from
:54:48. > :54:50.republicans for a border poll, while the DUP has been calling for reform
:54:51. > :54:52.of the political structures here. Our political reporter
:54:53. > :54:54.Stephen Walker is When I spoke to him
:54:55. > :54:58.earlier I began by asking him about the atmosphere among
:54:59. > :55:04.delegates, with one defection and It's not a great start, it is an odd
:55:05. > :55:09.atmosphere. Conservative activists want to be energised and we are only
:55:10. > :55:14.eight months from a general election but when they read the papers today
:55:15. > :55:17.they may be depressed about the defection and resignation, so not
:55:18. > :55:24.the start the Conservatives would have wished for. Stephen, after the
:55:25. > :55:28.Scottish referendum, there is discussion about constitutional
:55:29. > :55:34.change and devolution, will that feature on the agenda? It will,
:55:35. > :55:38.after Scotland the political landscape has changed because we are
:55:39. > :55:44.talking about things like evolution that we didn't talk about before, so
:55:45. > :55:48.the referendum has changed things, and people are talking about
:55:49. > :55:53.England. This is something Nigel Farage raised last week. He said if
:55:54. > :55:59.there is devolution and more powers for England, England would leave the
:56:00. > :56:03.union and it would be in crisis, so when terms of constitutional change,
:56:04. > :56:10.the issue of England will dominate. Today there will be a discussion
:56:11. > :56:13.about the UK and that will incorporate England, Scotland, Wales
:56:14. > :56:19.and Northern Ireland, and Theresa Villiers will make her speech there.
:56:20. > :56:25.Our interest is in Northern Ireland. To what extent will it force its way
:56:26. > :56:32.on the broader agenda? It is on the agenda, it is not high up after
:56:33. > :56:35.Scotland people are cocking about evolution and therefore they think
:56:36. > :56:41.about what is happening in Stormont, so from that point of view it is on
:56:42. > :56:44.the agenda. She will take part in a discussion along with colleagues
:56:45. > :56:48.from Scotland and Wales that Northern Ireland is being discussed.
:56:49. > :56:54.It is not the top priority when you read today's newspapers, you will
:56:55. > :56:58.see the things making headlines, but Northern Ireland will be mentioned.
:56:59. > :57:02.The Prime Minister will attend a Northern Ireland reception tomorrow
:57:03. > :57:06.night and on Tuesday there will be a Northern Ireland debates with a
:57:07. > :57:11.traditional Ulster Fry, so there are Northern Irish events at this
:57:12. > :57:17.conference. The Secretary of State is due to speak this afternoon but
:57:18. > :57:21.we do not know what she will say. She is under pressure from quarters
:57:22. > :57:26.who want to drive political progress here, she could make some big
:57:27. > :57:34.announcement or simply continue with her softly softly approach, we just
:57:35. > :57:41.do not know. She has faced criticism from Sinn Fein, who are asking her
:57:42. > :57:45.to hold a border poll, and from the SDLP and Labour Party, who do not
:57:46. > :57:48.think she is hands-on enough, so people are asking her to get
:57:49. > :57:55.involved and make her mark on this process to try to rate this
:57:56. > :57:59.political logjam. Thank you, Stephen -- to break this logjam.
:58:00. > :58:02.Now, let's pause for a moment and take a look at the political week
:58:03. > :58:15.The DUP leader shuffled his ministers and in the face of some
:58:16. > :58:18.backlash exposed Bartley tensions. People who have the strategic vision
:58:19. > :58:25.of a lemming and we have to deal with those people. As party
:58:26. > :58:29.colleagues rushed to support their minister, Simon Hamilton turned on
:58:30. > :58:34.Sinn Fein. He isn't in charge of his party. Gerry Adams is calling the
:58:35. > :58:40.shots and Martin McGuinness wanted to do a deal but cannot move
:58:41. > :58:45.forward. With the speaker Bill, a temporary successor was put in
:58:46. > :58:50.place. I have been authorised to perform these functions. The Labour
:58:51. > :58:54.leader called for the stalemate at Stormont to be settled. The
:58:55. > :59:01.government in Northern Ireland continues its work, including
:59:02. > :59:06.welfare reform. And with golf bringing more jobs to Northern
:59:07. > :59:06.Ireland, the First Minister and Deputy First Minister went to
:59:07. > :59:10.Scotland for the Ryder Cup. Let's hear a final thought
:59:11. > :59:23.from my studio guests, Let's talk about demand from
:59:24. > :59:31.Republicans for a border poll. Is it a runner? We had an opinion poll on
:59:32. > :59:36.Monday and we were surprised there is majority support for a border
:59:37. > :59:42.poll. I suppose it was the Scottish effect, polling is done around the
:59:43. > :59:46.town at the time of the referendum, maybe there was that support before
:59:47. > :59:54.but no one ever asked for it. Does that surprise you? Scotland has been
:59:55. > :59:58.such a game changer and a lot of people in the North would like
:59:59. > :00:03.clarity. If there was a border poll and people wanted Irish unity, the
:00:04. > :00:10.second aspect is, with the people ended South take on the North? The
:00:11. > :00:15.answer might be no. It might, but the notion of a border poll has to
:00:16. > :00:20.be handled carefully because if you don't have the support of Unionists,
:00:21. > :00:24.it is a very poor kind of unity you would achieve, but it is interesting
:00:25. > :00:30.people want clarity and want to express an opinion. With there have
:00:31. > :00:38.to be a commensurate poll in the Republic? If a border poll voted for
:00:39. > :00:39.Irish unity, you would enter a period of negotiation and then two
:00:40. > :00:41.more polls either My thanks to you both. Andrew, back
:00:42. > :01:01.to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with
:01:02. > :01:06.the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come
:01:07. > :01:13.here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in
:01:14. > :01:18.their case the general election. Two races later it hasn't quite worked
:01:19. > :01:24.out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets
:01:25. > :01:29.under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an
:01:30. > :01:35.article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the
:01:36. > :01:42.heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as
:01:43. > :01:47.a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running
:01:48. > :01:51.for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a
:01:52. > :01:56.five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about
:01:57. > :02:02.campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous
:02:03. > :02:09.Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong
:02:10. > :02:25.turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to
:02:26. > :02:35.UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do
:02:36. > :02:53.you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?
:02:54. > :03:12.Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many
:03:13. > :03:21.more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any
:03:22. > :03:25.more. I would be very surprised. I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant
:03:26. > :03:30.sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,
:03:31. > :03:34.namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I
:03:35. > :03:42.think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because
:03:43. > :03:46.that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be
:03:47. > :03:59.a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there
:04:00. > :04:04.could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two
:04:05. > :04:09.labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.
:04:10. > :04:16.How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after
:04:17. > :04:19.he had a really bad performance that his television performance was
:04:20. > :04:24.suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed
:04:25. > :04:28.Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches
:04:29. > :04:31.is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing
:04:32. > :04:36.for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore
:04:37. > :04:39.failed the Prime Minister test. I think the real problem for him was
:04:40. > :04:42.forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues
:04:43. > :04:47.which she really cares about, He spoke from the heart about issues
:04:48. > :04:51.NHS, the rupture between wages and inflation, and forgot the deficit.
:04:52. > :04:54.Those issues are important, but if you are not addressing things like
:04:55. > :04:59.the deficit, then people are really not going to be listening to your
:05:00. > :05:07.messages on the areas that matter. Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am
:05:08. > :05:08.afraid. I hope that this ends the nonsense of leaders wasting their
:05:09. > :05:11.time learning speeches nonsense of leaders wasting their
:05:12. > :05:17.heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn
:05:18. > :05:20.70 minutes of a leader's speech. I think we should just go back to
:05:21. > :05:25.sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just
:05:26. > :05:29.beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,
:05:30. > :05:33.but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked
:05:34. > :05:37.once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the
:05:38. > :05:40.derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,
:05:41. > :05:47.they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the
:05:48. > :05:52.omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing
:05:53. > :05:56.seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is
:05:57. > :06:04.almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour
:06:05. > :06:10.and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.
:06:11. > :06:13.You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the
:06:14. > :06:18.borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,
:06:19. > :06:22.because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference
:06:23. > :06:27.will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's
:06:28. > :06:30.speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more
:06:31. > :06:35.global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at
:06:36. > :06:43.this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up
:06:44. > :06:48.at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to
:06:49. > :06:56.change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they
:06:57. > :07:00.would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in
:07:01. > :07:05.double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his
:07:06. > :07:09.party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,
:07:10. > :07:13.come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It
:07:14. > :07:19.will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.
:07:20. > :07:25.When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,
:07:26. > :07:28.with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in
:07:29. > :07:33.the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I
:07:34. > :07:39.may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless
:07:40. > :07:42.this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was
:07:43. > :07:46.talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate
:07:47. > :07:49.because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the
:07:50. > :07:53.deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be
:07:54. > :07:57.really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the
:07:58. > :08:01.kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,
:08:02. > :08:05.Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat
:08:06. > :08:09.and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think
:08:10. > :08:15.today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to
:08:16. > :08:18.say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It
:08:19. > :08:24.is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party
:08:25. > :08:30.somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.
:08:31. > :08:35.But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,
:08:36. > :08:41.for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight
:08:42. > :08:48.for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do
:08:49. > :09:00.not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold
:09:01. > :09:07.on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was
:09:08. > :09:11.going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.
:09:12. > :09:17.But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One
:09:18. > :09:22.problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at
:09:23. > :09:24.economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people
:09:25. > :09:30.love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about
:09:31. > :09:34.relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will
:09:35. > :09:39.be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the
:09:40. > :09:41.conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable
:09:42. > :09:46.is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the
:09:47. > :09:51.Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay
:09:52. > :09:56.in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party
:09:57. > :10:02.to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we
:10:03. > :10:05.are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and
:10:06. > :10:10.people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will
:10:11. > :10:16.not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is
:10:17. > :10:23.happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where
:10:24. > :10:29.the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere
:10:30. > :10:33.near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:34. > :10:38.win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,
:10:39. > :10:42.it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in
:10:43. > :10:47.a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with
:10:48. > :10:51.cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister
:10:52. > :10:56.more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the
:10:57. > :10:59.gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his
:11:00. > :11:03.rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron
:11:04. > :11:16.Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I
:11:17. > :11:20.hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far
:11:21. > :11:24.with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I
:11:25. > :11:29.know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a
:11:30. > :11:31.wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are
:11:32. > :11:33.worried are patria, we understand you are
:11:34. > :11:38.worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about
:11:39. > :11:41.the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the
:11:42. > :11:44.economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet
:11:45. > :11:49.there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.
:11:50. > :11:58.They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has
:11:59. > :12:05.to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of
:12:06. > :12:10.the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does
:12:11. > :12:11.not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him
:12:12. > :12:16.do. You look at Duncan Whereas a lot of people behind him
:12:17. > :12:21.Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very
:12:22. > :12:29.right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not
:12:30. > :12:34.the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people
:12:35. > :12:38.do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his
:12:39. > :12:42.party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being
:12:43. > :12:47.this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,
:12:48. > :12:52.really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the
:12:53. > :12:58.metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.
:12:59. > :13:01.And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The
:13:02. > :13:05.trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of
:13:06. > :13:10.Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment
:13:11. > :13:13.you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson
:13:14. > :13:23.to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or
:13:24. > :13:27.lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good
:13:28. > :13:32.Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground
:13:33. > :13:38.to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you
:13:39. > :13:42.to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your
:13:43. > :13:47.lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George
:13:48. > :13:51.Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for
:13:52. > :13:57.The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss
:13:58. > :14:24.that? Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye.
:14:25. > :14:28.I think I've overdone it with the pistachios
:14:29. > :14:31.and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!
:14:32. > :14:42.of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.