:00:37. > :00:43.Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join
:00:44. > :00:46.the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,
:00:47. > :00:48.that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure
:00:49. > :00:51.The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.
:00:52. > :00:55.We'll have the latest on this developing row.
:00:56. > :00:57.This woman claims to be the voice of business -
:00:58. > :01:01.and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.
:01:02. > :01:03.But is the business case that clear cut?
:01:04. > :01:07.We speak to the Director General of the CBI.
:01:08. > :01:10.When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,
:01:11. > :01:12.which is better: telephone polls or online polls?
:01:13. > :01:16.Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.
:01:17. > :01:20.And I tell you what, if I don't know,
:01:21. > :01:23.having done all this opinion polling for lark for 21 years,
:01:24. > :01:26.As the battle lines are drawn around opposition,
:01:27. > :01:29.more Stormont manoeuvrings this week over the Justice Ministry.
:01:30. > :01:35.which school principals say they now face.
:01:36. > :01:38.wrath citizens are eligible to vote in the EU referendum. Which way did
:01:39. > :01:42.they tilt? And with me - as always -
:01:43. > :01:45.a political panel of the best and the brightest in the business,
:01:46. > :01:48.hopefully they do know which way to jump: Tom Newton Dunn,
:01:49. > :01:50.Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh who'll be tweeting
:01:51. > :01:54.throughout the programme. Turkey has taken centre-stage
:01:55. > :01:56.in the referendum debate today. Vote Leave are launching
:01:57. > :01:58.a new poster campaign warning that Turkey is on course to join the EU,
:01:59. > :02:02.leaving the UK vulnerable to criminals, mass migration and
:02:03. > :02:07.more pressure on public services. The Prime Minister was asked
:02:08. > :02:09.about the claims on the Robert Peston programme on
:02:10. > :02:12.ITV. Every country has a veto,
:02:13. > :02:16.and let's be clear, as Boris himself said, Turkey
:02:17. > :02:21.joining the EU is not remotely on the cards. At the current rate of
:02:22. > :02:24.progress, this would be decades, literally decades,
:02:25. > :02:26.before this even had a prospect of happening, and even at that stage,
:02:27. > :02:31.we would be able to say no. Well, that was David
:02:32. > :02:34.Cameron this morning. But here's what he had to say
:02:35. > :02:45.in a speech in Istanbul in 2010. But here's what he had to say
:02:46. > :02:54.in a speech in Ankara in 2010. It makes me angry that your progress
:02:55. > :02:59.towards EU membership can be frustrated. My view is clear. I
:03:00. > :03:04.believe it is wrong to say that Turkey can guard the camp, but not
:03:05. > :03:09.be allowed to sit in the tent. So why will remain your strongest
:03:10. > :03:15.possible advocate for EU membership and for greater influence at the top
:03:16. > :03:16.table of European diplomacy. The Prime Minister six years ago after
:03:17. > :03:25.becoming Prime Minister. Is it a proper issue for this
:03:26. > :03:30.referendum or is it a red herring? It is an issue and quite frankly,
:03:31. > :03:34.the Leave campaign will be delighted that we are now talking about
:03:35. > :03:39.Turkey, because every time you talk about Turkey, you conjure up the
:03:40. > :03:42.image of more migration, uncontrolled immigration from a
:03:43. > :03:53.poorer countries so it is a Leave win. I am not sure that the Prime
:03:54. > :03:57.Minister is right to engage in this one. But he has been called about
:03:58. > :04:05.this from someone whose judgment he also calls into question. But is a
:04:06. > :04:10.strange thing, his own Armed Forces Minister. The Prime Minister is
:04:11. > :04:14.right to say we have a veto, every EU member has a veto in new members,
:04:15. > :04:20.but if the Prime Minister is in favour of Turkey joining, which is
:04:21. > :04:24.said he was in Ankara, then the veto does not matter? Absolutely. What a
:04:25. > :04:29.great clip that was the Prime Minister in 2010, when he set out
:04:30. > :04:37.Ray clearly what his position is. He supports Turkey joining the EU in
:04:38. > :04:40.whatever time frame that may be. It does not do for the Prime Minister
:04:41. > :04:44.to say we have a veto. The question is, will you use that veto? If he is
:04:45. > :04:50.saying we would use our veto against Turkey, that is big news and can we
:04:51. > :04:57.hear it? It would be a big U-turn. It could be moot, couldn't it? There
:04:58. > :05:01.is no prospect of Turkey joining in the future, is there? The telling
:05:02. > :05:06.thing about this conversation as we are focusing on our veto and the
:05:07. > :05:10.veto possessed by all existing EU members and not focusing on Turkey
:05:11. > :05:16.itself. Is that country as keen on joining as was a decade ago? The
:05:17. > :05:20.change and internal politics in Turkey suggests they are less keen
:05:21. > :05:25.on membership or less keen on doing the things necessary to successfully
:05:26. > :05:29.apply for EU mentorship than they were a while ago. I think for
:05:30. > :05:33.reasons on the Turkish side and on the European side, it will not
:05:34. > :05:37.happen until I am a very old man. But it is entirely legitimate for
:05:38. > :05:40.Leave to play up this issue and every day we talk about migration is
:05:41. > :05:45.a day we're not spending talking about the economy and I think that
:05:46. > :05:50.is their only route to victory four weeks' time. There are plenty of
:05:51. > :05:56.forces in Germany and France, two countries about to have elections
:05:57. > :06:01.next year, who are not going to agree to Turkey joining any time
:06:02. > :06:04.soon. And if you were to be fair to the prime and Vista, you would say
:06:05. > :06:08.he made that speech in 2010 in Ankara, me and a whole load of
:06:09. > :06:15.political hacks were in the room when he said it... Were you there? I
:06:16. > :06:21.was there. At one stage he says he was passionate about Turkish
:06:22. > :06:27.president. He was very keen to suck up to President Erdogan at the time
:06:28. > :06:34.because he wanted more trade. That was pre-migration crisis. That has
:06:35. > :06:38.changed everything not just in British politics but for Angela
:06:39. > :06:45.Merkel and Francois Hollande. It may be acceptable for the Prime Minister
:06:46. > :06:48.to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this issue. We will see as the day
:06:49. > :06:50.develops. So, the head of the NHS in England,
:06:51. > :06:53.Simon Stevens, says the health service would be worse off
:06:54. > :06:56.if we decide to leave the EU. Two of his predecessors have also
:06:57. > :06:59.written a joint article in the Sunday Times
:07:00. > :07:01.saying that they think, for the NHS at least,
:07:02. > :07:03.staying in the EU is Mr Stevens was on the Andrew
:07:04. > :07:06.Marr Show this morning. When Mark Carney says that the risk
:07:07. > :07:11.of a slowdown in economic growth, possibly a recession,
:07:12. > :07:15.if we end up exiting the EU, if Mark Carney is right,
:07:16. > :07:19.then that is a severe concern for the National Health Service,
:07:20. > :07:23.because it would be very dangerous if at precisely the moment the NHS
:07:24. > :07:28.is going to need extra funding, actually the economy goes
:07:29. > :07:30.into a tailspin and that funding Leave campaigners, unsurprisingly,
:07:31. > :07:36.take a different view - they argue that remaining in the EU
:07:37. > :07:39.will place further strain on the NHS due to continued free movement
:07:40. > :07:42.of people and the accession What is the relationship
:07:43. > :07:55.between our membership The Department of Health estimates
:07:56. > :08:00.that the cost to the NHS in England from visitors and non-permanent
:08:01. > :08:02.residents who come from the European economic area,
:08:03. > :08:04.that is the EU plus Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway,
:08:05. > :08:08.is around ?340 million a year. To put that in context,
:08:09. > :08:10.the total annual expenditure in England's NHS was
:08:11. > :08:15.?113 billion in 2014-15. There are around 3 million people
:08:16. > :08:18.from other EU countries resident in the UK and all are entitled
:08:19. > :08:24.to use NHS services. All those would be entitled to stay
:08:25. > :08:30.in the UK, even if we were to leave the EU, due to the rights under
:08:31. > :08:33.the Vienna Convention. In 2015, around 257,000 EU
:08:34. > :08:39.nationals migrated to the UK. But whether that number would come
:08:40. > :08:42.down if we vote to leave depends on the deal the UK strikes
:08:43. > :08:46.with the EU following an exit. NHS England says the total number
:08:47. > :08:52.of staff coming from EU countries was just over 53,000,
:08:53. > :08:58.or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce. A total of 9% of NHS England's
:08:59. > :09:02.hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses and health visitors,
:09:03. > :09:07.come from other EU countries, however, all would be entitled
:09:08. > :09:11.to stay in the event of a vote to leave, and without knowing
:09:12. > :09:13.what any future deal might be, it is impossible to know
:09:14. > :09:16.if there would be any impact A one-time pro-European
:09:17. > :09:23.Foreign Secretary, he is now campaigning for the UK to leave
:09:24. > :09:35.the European Union. Good morning, David Owen. Let me
:09:36. > :09:39.come straight to the remarks by the man currently running the NHS in
:09:40. > :09:44.England, Simon Stevens. He said it would be better for the NHS if we
:09:45. > :09:50.remain in the EU. What is your response? Let's be quite clear.
:09:51. > :09:55.Simon Stevens is the manager of the NHS, which is currently ?3 billion
:09:56. > :10:01.in debt. This man has presided now for a sufficient time to judge his
:10:02. > :10:06.management skills. In almost every part of the National Health Service,
:10:07. > :10:10.there is an acute crisis. He spent ten years in America, with an
:10:11. > :10:21.American health care company, effectively arguing for the TTIP,
:10:22. > :10:30.this treaty between America and the European Union, which could be
:10:31. > :10:36.introduced, and an assessment makes it very clear that TTIP will be very
:10:37. > :10:43.damaging to the National Health Service, if it is drafted in the way
:10:44. > :10:48.that it is. Simon Stevens should stick to his Lee which is to manage
:10:49. > :10:53.the health service more effectively. He is an individual, he has a view
:10:54. > :10:57.on the European Union which is fine, but his basic job is to look after
:10:58. > :11:05.the NHS, and at the moment he is making a very considerable mess of.
:11:06. > :11:12.It is not just Simon Stevens, two of his predecessors say staying in the
:11:13. > :11:18.EU is the preferable option. Identifying, if there is any danger
:11:19. > :11:23.to the NHS, it is in staying in, with all the elements of the NHS
:11:24. > :11:28.which are now involved with the EU. -- I don't think. For the first 20
:11:29. > :11:33.years of our membership, with the common market, we had no involvement
:11:34. > :11:38.with the NHS at all. Now the NHS procurement policy, the NHS
:11:39. > :11:43.competition policy is all impact in, because we have started to Mark ties
:11:44. > :11:48.the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It continued under the coalition with
:11:49. > :11:50.the Liberal Democrats of this present Conservative government, and
:11:51. > :11:56.it has continued under this Conservative government. If you
:11:57. > :12:01.treat health like water or electricity or gas, as a utility,
:12:02. > :12:05.and you treat them all as customers, then you will be under market
:12:06. > :12:12.pressures, and the problem with the NHS is we lost what it was, it
:12:13. > :12:17.fortunately still is in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, but
:12:18. > :12:20.in England it is a marker ties to health service modelling itself on
:12:21. > :12:25.the United States of America. If you wanted to make changes, you would be
:12:26. > :12:30.wiser to stick to Germany or France, not go the United States model. Let
:12:31. > :12:34.me put a point to you. Michael Gove, part of the Leave campaign, he says
:12:35. > :12:40.the NHS could be overwhelmed by continued migration if we stay in
:12:41. > :12:47.the EU. He predicts an extra 5 million plus by 2030. These
:12:48. > :12:53.predictions suggest that Turkey, Macedonia and Albania all join the
:12:54. > :12:58.EU by 2020. That is not on the cards, is it? Let's be clear about
:12:59. > :13:04.your programme so far and analyse what has been said already. It is
:13:05. > :13:08.not the Prime Minister what he said in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine
:13:09. > :13:18.weeks ago signed up to the European Council meeting on the 18th of
:13:19. > :13:24.March, and he said, to re-energise the accession process for Turkey to
:13:25. > :13:30.join the EU, and to make preparatory work for the opening of other
:13:31. > :13:33.chapters will continue at an accelerating pace. This is a Prime
:13:34. > :13:39.Minister who is getting used to saying one thing one time, another
:13:40. > :13:44.thing another. Nine weeks ago, we were committed to increasing the
:13:45. > :13:49.speed of entry for Turkey into the European Union. I am passionate
:13:50. > :13:54.about keeping Turkey inside Nato, and with one foot in the EU and with
:13:55. > :14:00.one foot in the Middle East. Why? Because Turkey is essentially
:14:01. > :14:04.important country, as a member of Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria,
:14:05. > :14:09.Iraq and many other problems around the world. But you will not make it
:14:10. > :14:13.by bringing them prematurely into the European Union. What we should
:14:14. > :14:18.be doing is encouraging them to come into the single market which has
:14:19. > :14:30.non-EU countries associated, but without this issue of freedom of
:14:31. > :14:35.movement of Labour. You are Foreign Secretary... Let me ask this
:14:36. > :14:40.question. You must surely know, that Turkey's chances of joining the EU
:14:41. > :14:45.in the foreseeable future are remote. Isn't that the reality? No,
:14:46. > :14:50.I think what was said by your commentator earlier in the
:14:51. > :14:53.programmers that has been a change of foreign policy. If the Prime
:14:54. > :14:59.Minister commits nine weeks ago to speeding up Turkey's membership, and
:15:00. > :15:02.then does not deliver on it, what will be the consequences? Turkey
:15:03. > :15:07.will feel they have been lied to or rejected by the Europeans and they
:15:08. > :15:12.will, in my view, come out of Nato with very profound consequences. At
:15:13. > :15:16.the moment, let's treat Turkey with respect, let's try and ensure they
:15:17. > :15:20.make the necessary changes on human rights and in many other areas.
:15:21. > :15:25.There are a lot of worrying aspects about Turkish policy, but mention
:15:26. > :15:32.above the European Union in my view is not the issue. It is how to make
:15:33. > :15:37.them more committed to Europe. Don't avoid this question. If we are in
:15:38. > :15:42.the European Union, we are committed to freedom of movement of Labour in
:15:43. > :15:44.every aspect of EU membership. That is a problem. David Owen, thank you,
:15:45. > :15:48.we will have to leave it there. The Confederation Of British
:15:49. > :15:50.Industry calls itself the "voice of business",
:15:51. > :15:52.claiming to speak on behalf of 190,000 businesses,
:15:53. > :15:55.employing up to 7 million people. And according to the CBI,
:15:56. > :15:57.British businesses overwhelmingly back the idea of remaining
:15:58. > :16:00.in the EU. What's more, they've been
:16:01. > :16:04.encouraging their members to talk to staff about the referendum
:16:05. > :16:08.to give them "the choice to hear what impact a Brexit
:16:09. > :16:10.would have on company growth, their jobs and their
:16:11. > :16:11.local community". As you can imagine, Leave
:16:12. > :16:19.campaigners are not amused. The chair of the Vote Leave business
:16:20. > :16:21.council, John Longworth, a former director-general
:16:22. > :16:23.of the British Chambers Of Commerce, said the call was an
:16:24. > :16:26."anti-democratic abuse of power He added: "It's highly regrettable
:16:27. > :16:32.to see big corporate bosses plotting to gang up on their staff,
:16:33. > :16:37.and lecture them on how to vote." Well, we're joined
:16:38. > :16:39.now by the director general of the CBI,
:16:40. > :16:59.Carolyn Fairbairn. Welcome to the programme. Good
:17:00. > :17:01.morning. If big business told its workers how to vote in a general
:17:02. > :17:04.election, there would be broad, so why are you encouraging your members
:17:05. > :17:07.to warn their workers about the dangers of Brexit? That is not what
:17:08. > :17:09.we have said. We have said that people working today in economy want
:17:10. > :17:12.to hear from their employers about what it means on either side of the
:17:13. > :17:16.debate. That is not what you said, you said what impact Brexit would
:17:17. > :17:21.have on growth, jobs and the local community. Positive for negative.
:17:22. > :17:26.You did not say that? It is clear this is not about warning anybody.
:17:27. > :17:29.This is about the questions that people are now asking about what it
:17:30. > :17:35.means for them. We were clean about that. Most of your members, you
:17:36. > :17:39.claim, are in favour of staying in the European Union. The message
:17:40. > :17:43.going out to the workforce will be overwhelmingly about remaining in
:17:44. > :17:49.the EU. The main thing is that people who are going to vote on June
:17:50. > :17:52.23 have as good an understanding as they possibly can about what it
:17:53. > :17:58.means for their jobs, families and communities. That was the key
:17:59. > :18:03.message, nothing about telling people how to vote. We learned this
:18:04. > :18:07.week that one of your members, Circle, was planning uproar EU
:18:08. > :18:12.campaign with the Prime Minister, even before the renegotiations were
:18:13. > :18:16.finished. With the CBI or any of your members have similar
:18:17. > :18:22.discussions with the government? To my knowledge, no. The conversations
:18:23. > :18:27.that businesses, universities, all parts of our society have with
:18:28. > :18:30.government go on every day. Were you planning the pro-union-mac campaign
:18:31. > :18:39.with the government even before the renegotiations? No. But Circle was?
:18:40. > :18:44.No. Everything the CBI has done is a result of the things we have done
:18:45. > :18:48.and a half of our members. Circle has contracts with the government
:18:49. > :18:54.worth several million pounds. The taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was
:18:55. > :18:59.offering to help the Prime Minister do what he could to help keep
:19:00. > :19:02.Britain in the EU. It was a behind closed doors stitch up between big
:19:03. > :19:07.government and big business, wasn't it? The important thing is to
:19:08. > :19:13.understand what businesses across the country of all sizes are seeing.
:19:14. > :19:20.You're focusing on one company. What we are seeing is that the majority
:19:21. > :19:27.of businesses want to stay in the European Union. I understand that. I
:19:28. > :19:30.am asking you if the way this company has handled this... It
:19:31. > :19:34.smells of a stitch up? I do not think this is a stitch up. It is
:19:35. > :19:40.about voices of business being heard on issues of jobs, growth and the
:19:41. > :19:44.future prosperity of our country. People can make their decisions on
:19:45. > :19:47.polling day about a whole variety of factors, but businesses who are
:19:48. > :19:51.trading with the European Union everyday, having their voices
:19:52. > :20:02.clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard.
:20:03. > :20:05.He saw the Prime Minister, Mr Soames. This is what he did in the
:20:06. > :20:07.follow-up letter. He spoke about backing the prime and is to's
:20:08. > :20:10.campaign to keep us in the EU. This is even though the renegotiations
:20:11. > :20:18.were not finished. He went on to lobby for business. He said... He
:20:19. > :20:24.wants more business at the same time. It really does add to the
:20:25. > :20:28.sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not
:20:29. > :20:33.what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he
:20:34. > :20:39.wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as
:20:40. > :20:42.lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening
:20:43. > :20:48.all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for
:20:49. > :20:52.other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and
:20:53. > :20:58.Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are
:20:59. > :21:02.heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU
:21:03. > :21:06.because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000
:21:07. > :21:11.lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your
:21:12. > :21:16.kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in?
:21:17. > :21:19.I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the
:21:20. > :21:24.beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it
:21:25. > :21:28.is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We
:21:29. > :21:34.have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey.
:21:35. > :21:39.93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is
:21:40. > :21:45.all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members
:21:46. > :21:49.but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has
:21:50. > :21:55.forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8
:21:56. > :21:58.billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made
:21:59. > :22:03.by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big
:22:04. > :22:07.business but not public services? There are areas where we share
:22:08. > :22:11.sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe
:22:12. > :22:16.for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the
:22:17. > :22:20.rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The
:22:21. > :22:27.benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in
:22:28. > :22:30.tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC
:22:31. > :22:36.to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about
:22:37. > :22:42.lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax.
:22:43. > :22:46.That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses
:22:47. > :22:51.overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves
:22:52. > :22:58.that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not
:22:59. > :23:03.something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off.
:23:04. > :23:09.British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse
:23:10. > :23:16.off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion
:23:17. > :23:19.worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not
:23:20. > :23:24.know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the
:23:25. > :23:29.moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The
:23:30. > :23:35.CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we
:23:36. > :23:39.listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that
:23:40. > :23:47.when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI
:23:48. > :23:50.had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle
:23:51. > :23:57.of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people
:23:58. > :24:00.lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK
:24:01. > :24:08.membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were
:24:09. > :24:13.wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if
:24:14. > :24:18.you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were
:24:19. > :24:23.caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation
:24:24. > :24:29.of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had
:24:30. > :24:33.moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is
:24:34. > :24:37.about something very different. It is about the experience that we as
:24:38. > :24:41.an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived.
:24:42. > :24:46.We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man.
:24:47. > :24:51.His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The
:24:52. > :24:56.euro was about something which people were imagining in the future,
:24:57. > :25:00.a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your
:25:01. > :25:04.stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we
:25:05. > :25:12.remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You
:25:13. > :25:17.commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU.
:25:18. > :25:26.That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy
:25:27. > :25:30.will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would
:25:31. > :25:37.still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it
:25:38. > :25:41.would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have
:25:42. > :25:46.deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future.
:25:47. > :25:51.You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the
:25:52. > :25:55.short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and
:25:56. > :26:01.many others believe as well, is there could be significant
:26:02. > :26:08.short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your
:26:09. > :26:14.own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if
:26:15. > :26:20.we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are
:26:21. > :26:24.able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic
:26:25. > :26:30.assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We
:26:31. > :26:35.just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of
:26:36. > :26:40.course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not
:26:41. > :26:46.continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36%
:26:47. > :26:52.more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be
:26:53. > :26:57.a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to
:26:58. > :27:01.school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the
:27:02. > :27:06.difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would
:27:07. > :27:09.adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly
:27:10. > :27:14.an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that
:27:15. > :27:21.each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers
:27:22. > :27:28.have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do.
:27:29. > :27:35.It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put
:27:36. > :27:40.together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study.
:27:41. > :27:46.Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around
:27:47. > :27:52.it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK
:27:53. > :27:56.joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income
:27:57. > :28:01.to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result
:28:02. > :28:05.of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would
:28:06. > :28:10.support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never
:28:11. > :28:15.claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey
:28:16. > :28:24.of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research
:28:25. > :28:27.papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have
:28:28. > :28:30.got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the
:28:31. > :28:35.National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US
:28:36. > :28:42.Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure.
:28:43. > :28:47.You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we
:28:48. > :28:52.did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the
:28:53. > :28:56.other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read.
:28:57. > :28:59.It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased
:29:00. > :29:06.against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's
:29:07. > :29:12.respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real
:29:13. > :29:15.evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described
:29:16. > :29:19.it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We
:29:20. > :29:24.went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read
:29:25. > :29:29.the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of
:29:30. > :29:38.consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other
:29:39. > :29:42.papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for
:29:43. > :29:47.the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would
:29:48. > :29:53.be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are
:29:54. > :29:59.saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a
:30:00. > :30:02.result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards
:30:03. > :30:06.over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European
:30:07. > :30:10.Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on
:30:11. > :30:17.principle to join the euro? Absolutely not.
:30:18. > :30:22.Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the
:30:23. > :30:26.five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the
:30:27. > :30:31.conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign
:30:32. > :30:36.choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market,
:30:37. > :30:40.it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We
:30:41. > :30:51.have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a
:30:52. > :30:54.discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI
:30:55. > :30:58.welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a
:30:59. > :31:02.further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one
:31:03. > :31:06.thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the
:31:07. > :31:10.benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one
:31:11. > :31:15.thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very
:31:16. > :31:20.important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the
:31:21. > :31:24.European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate.
:31:25. > :31:26.Thank you. Depending on which polls you look
:31:27. > :31:29.at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU
:31:30. > :31:32.or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave
:31:33. > :31:36.Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile,
:31:37. > :31:38.gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both
:31:39. > :31:40.those polls were done Our society and our electorate
:31:41. > :31:49.is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet
:31:50. > :31:52.they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion,
:31:53. > :31:54.economic background, education, political views,
:31:55. > :32:02.and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore,
:32:03. > :32:06.can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question,
:32:07. > :32:11.but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly
:32:12. > :32:13.interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment
:32:14. > :32:16.in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate
:32:17. > :32:20.to varying degrees, and what makes
:32:21. > :32:22.political polling even harder is it is like trying to
:32:23. > :32:30.hit a moving target from a moving platform
:32:31. > :32:32.in the And you would think in this EU
:32:33. > :32:35.referendum the simplicity of the question would help,
:32:36. > :32:37.should we leave It makes the whole thing
:32:38. > :32:46.much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls
:32:47. > :32:48.giving very different signals. Given the problems
:32:49. > :32:50.pollsters had getting the general election right, and some
:32:51. > :32:55.of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck,
:32:56. > :32:58.some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in
:32:59. > :33:08.terms of working out When I apply different technical
:33:09. > :33:17.methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead
:33:18. > :33:19.in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not
:33:20. > :33:24.know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years,
:33:25. > :33:28.I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how
:33:29. > :33:32.the polls are done, how they get a truly
:33:33. > :33:35.representative sample of society in the first place,
:33:36. > :33:41.either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone
:33:42. > :33:44.of contention that in recent days has even
:33:45. > :33:46.spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become
:33:47. > :33:52.harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature
:33:53. > :33:57.self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be
:33:58. > :34:03.considered far more representative, but in recent years,
:34:04. > :34:05.the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard
:34:06. > :34:09.now to consider them to be So both modes have an element
:34:10. > :34:13.of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about
:34:14. > :34:16.about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote
:34:17. > :34:20.or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines
:34:21. > :34:26.or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before
:34:27. > :34:29.have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who,
:34:30. > :34:34.with online polling, And phone contact through
:34:35. > :34:39.persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are
:34:40. > :34:44.harder to get hold of. Would it be all right
:34:45. > :34:50.if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative
:34:51. > :34:56.amongst some pollsters that phone polling
:34:57. > :34:59.is probably the more accurate, which,
:35:00. > :35:00.given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check
:35:01. > :35:07.them to see we have the right number of people who vote,
:35:08. > :35:09.do we believe that all the people
:35:10. > :35:12.in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually
:35:13. > :35:14.will, are we missing people who really just do not care
:35:15. > :35:20.about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote,
:35:21. > :35:23.are we missing the great unwashed who do
:35:24. > :35:24.not have degrees? All those things,
:35:25. > :35:26.when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is
:35:27. > :35:29.still ahead. We would have to be very,
:35:30. > :35:31.very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the
:35:32. > :35:34.polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels
:35:35. > :35:38.of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly
:35:39. > :35:39.pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters
:35:40. > :35:44.YouGov have conducted some phone polling
:35:45. > :35:49.about phone polling. What we found from that comparison,
:35:50. > :35:53.both to the national picture and to our online polls,
:35:54. > :35:57.was that telephone polls were underestimating the people
:35:58. > :35:59.who are not university educated, and that is
:36:00. > :36:03.hugely important in the EU referendum because we know
:36:04. > :36:06.that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words,
:36:07. > :36:08.one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing
:36:09. > :36:12.potential Leave voters. Online are accused
:36:13. > :36:18.of overstating them, there are two other that vital:
:36:19. > :36:27.are are you going to vote? Turnout will be
:36:28. > :36:29.crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours
:36:30. > :36:32.Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't
:36:33. > :36:34.knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed
:36:35. > :36:35.answers, and four weeks to go,
:36:36. > :36:39.most pollsters might reasonably fear
:36:40. > :36:41.the result of a poll that asked us all,
:36:42. > :36:43."Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35,
:36:44. > :36:51.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:36:52. > :36:54.in Scotland who leave us now It's just gone 11.35,
:36:55. > :37:02.you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:37:03. > :37:06.in Northern Ireland. The countdown is on to D-Day -
:37:07. > :37:09.that's the day the D'hondt method of sharing out the Ministerial posts
:37:10. > :37:11.will take place at Stormont. The Justice Ministry
:37:12. > :37:14.is still at the heart of negotiations - even though
:37:15. > :37:17.the DUP and Sinn Fein say there's no doubt they will be in a position
:37:18. > :37:20.to form a full We'll hear from
:37:21. > :37:22.Professor Peter Shirlow and Allison Morris from
:37:23. > :37:25.the Irish News on how Plus, education was one of the big
:37:26. > :37:32.issues on the doorsteps in the run up to the election -
:37:33. > :37:34.and the threat of budget cuts, teacher redundancies and bigger
:37:35. > :37:38.class sizes looms large for the new Minister who'll
:37:39. > :37:41.take charge this week. Deirdre Gillespie from St Mary's
:37:42. > :37:45.in Magherafelt and Ralph Magee from Andrews Memorial
:37:46. > :37:47.Primary School in Comber - So the week to come is set
:37:48. > :37:57.to be as fascinating After the drama of the SDLP's
:37:58. > :38:01.move into opposition and the Alliance Party not quite yet
:38:02. > :38:05.definitively following them out the door, we're
:38:06. > :38:07.still looking forward to the big reveal of who will
:38:08. > :38:10.take the Justice post. Here, a bit earlier than normal
:38:11. > :38:13.on the programme, is the drama of the week gone past in 60 seconds -
:38:14. > :38:30.with Stephen Walker. In the justice ministry is being
:38:31. > :38:33.discussed at the minute. It wasn't just the weather that was
:38:34. > :38:39.changeable, the face of Government took a different turn. Further
:38:40. > :38:44.deputy and first-Minister, it was keep Cam and carry on. We have both
:38:45. > :38:50.campaign to be in Government. Others did not campaign in the same way.
:38:51. > :38:57.The SDLP decided that was not good enough. We will go into opposition
:38:58. > :39:02.to form a constructive opposition to remain party executive. Remember
:39:03. > :39:06.Arlene's 5-point plan during the election, Alliance have five demands
:39:07. > :39:10.of their own in the negotiations for the justice post. There was list was
:39:11. > :39:14.rejected. At the moment it would appear that I'm not interested and
:39:15. > :39:20.that proposition. They say they are confident they can go ahead without
:39:21. > :39:27.as. If they do not take justice, who will? I will as a compliment that
:39:28. > :39:29.they did not ask me. -- did not dare ask me.
:39:30. > :39:31.So let's discuss the drama of the past seven days -
:39:32. > :39:33.and the options for how things might play out
:39:34. > :39:37.over the coming week, with Allison Morris and Pete Shirlow.
:39:38. > :39:46.Welcome to you both. There is an opposition but Jim Allister has
:39:47. > :39:50.known that for some time. Do you think this was the right thing for
:39:51. > :39:57.the Ulster Unionist and the SDLP to do? Clearly what did also does is
:39:58. > :40:02.allow policies to develop, allows criticism of policies that are put
:40:03. > :40:08.out by Sinn Fein to be articulated. It allows those parties to create
:40:09. > :40:13.policies. The fundamental problems was a lecturer Lee. They were not
:40:14. > :40:18.going to go anywhere with junior partners. It allows them to regroup
:40:19. > :40:22.and allows them to think about the credentials. It allows a proper
:40:23. > :40:28.critique of Government, that is another step to normalisation. There
:40:29. > :40:32.is another view and we have heard some commentators articulate that
:40:33. > :40:34.this is the road to nowhere, the road to political irrelevance. We
:40:35. > :40:43.are hearing that from the two vertical parties. I think Peter is
:40:44. > :40:46.right. It was opposition or die for the SDLP. I think for them to
:40:47. > :40:54.survive in the long running opposition was the best route to go
:40:55. > :41:02.down. Even one lone person and opposition can put pressure on the
:41:03. > :41:05.parties. Very few places of two pieces of legislation was passed
:41:06. > :41:09.before. Do you think it has a hand in the negotiations with its 5-point
:41:10. > :41:14.shopping list and apparently no room to manoeuvre? I think not, I think
:41:15. > :41:19.it's the opposite. What we did was, do you want us or not? They set out
:41:20. > :41:23.some kind of idea of what they wanted in return was clearly quite
:41:24. > :41:27.robust and basically saying, are we contingent to being in Government?
:41:28. > :41:31.The answer came back no and we know what our position is, we're not a
:41:32. > :41:33.patsy and we're not going to follow you and do what you want to do.
:41:34. > :41:35.Walking away seems logical. Well, let's hear what the Sinn Fein
:41:36. > :41:38.president Gerry Adams had to say to reporters
:41:39. > :41:40.on Friday afternoon. Our political correspondent
:41:41. > :41:42.Stephen Walker asked Mr Adams if his party would accept
:41:43. > :41:54.a DUP Justice Minister. Well, we had the Executive elected
:41:55. > :41:59.on Wednesday. If we do not go into another election, we have a series
:42:00. > :42:06.of options to mixture of the Executive is elected. Arlene Foster
:42:07. > :42:12.says she want have Sinn Fein justice minister. Is that the basis for a
:42:13. > :42:18.partnership in Government? Well, look, let's not underestimate the
:42:19. > :42:21.challenges that Irish republicans have working with the Democratic
:42:22. > :42:28.Unionist Party. Let's not underestimate that. Is the
:42:29. > :42:34.Government that we have in place the one that we would choose? No, it is
:42:35. > :42:39.not. Clearly we are united Ireland is and we went to see United system.
:42:40. > :42:47.We are resolute in pursuing that. We want to build peace and build
:42:48. > :42:52.partnership and build equality and to end division. We work with the
:42:53. > :42:58.DUP, notwithstanding the faculties. They would say the same thing about
:42:59. > :43:03.us. We are a progressive party, a party which believes absolutely
:43:04. > :43:12.inequality and unity of citizens. I'm not going to rise to these
:43:13. > :43:15.suggestions or put downs. We have a job of work to do, we are elected to
:43:16. > :43:20.do that and that is what we're going to do. Is the DUP Justice Minister
:43:21. > :43:23.better than another election? If there's going to be another
:43:24. > :43:29.election, we will fight that election on the positive platform.
:43:30. > :43:34.Would you go for a DUP does Minster before an election? In other words,
:43:35. > :43:39.if that is the choice? Well, let's say this, if there is an election,
:43:40. > :43:49.Sinn Fein will fight that election. Our focus at the moment is to get a
:43:50. > :43:51.fool executive and just as minute collected on Wednesday. How
:43:52. > :43:58.difficult is it for Sinn Fein to have the DUP ruling out a Republican
:43:59. > :44:03.in the justice post? The DUP has been very clear in saying this time
:44:04. > :44:06.they want accept a Sinn Fein justice minister. Gerry Adams did not rule
:44:07. > :44:11.out having a DUP justice minister. He just said, we will see. That
:44:12. > :44:18.looks like one of the likely prospects. An independent take up
:44:19. > :44:22.the post. They have put out feelers to try and take the post. Of all
:44:23. > :44:26.those people decline, that would be the possibility of a DVD justice
:44:27. > :44:34.minister. For Republicans, policing is one of the... It is quite
:44:35. > :44:38.controversial. One of the options would be, it hasn't been discussed a
:44:39. > :44:41.lot but it would be Arlene Foster ticking on the job of justice
:44:42. > :44:45.minister alongside first-Minister, which you could do and she could
:44:46. > :44:52.appoint a shin pain junior minister. That is a possibility -- Sinn Fein.
:44:53. > :44:55.When you hear that commentary and when they walked out of Stormont
:44:56. > :44:58.house and they had confidence that there would be a justice minister,
:44:59. > :45:06.there is something in the back pocket. I think it's one thing this
:45:07. > :45:10.collection shows us is that people want these two to be a partnership
:45:11. > :45:15.together. People are voting for a Sinn Fein DUP are to lead
:45:16. > :45:20.Government. Even people who do not vote, say they want them to be the
:45:21. > :45:24.Government. There is no alternative to that. Clearly this is something
:45:25. > :45:28.that is going to show us a very different strand of politics between
:45:29. > :45:32.now and the next election. We don't want to have another election. Sinn
:45:33. > :45:33.Fein did not have a good election. I don't think they would want to go
:45:34. > :45:36.back and have another election. Stephen Walker was busy for us
:45:37. > :45:38.on Friday, he also spoke to the senior DUP MLA,
:45:39. > :45:41.Simon Hamilton, and put it to him that if a Justice Minister couldn't
:45:42. > :45:49.be agreed, then we're facing I don't believe it will get to that.
:45:50. > :45:53.We are very confident we will have a solution, we have asked the business
:45:54. > :45:58.committee to convene the Assembly for next Wednesday. That is going to
:45:59. > :46:03.take place. We heard the Deputy First Ministers say they will have
:46:04. > :46:06.an executive in place. It will get down to its business on Thursday
:46:07. > :46:13.next week and get on with what the people want, try to move Northern
:46:14. > :46:21.Ireland forward. Penny except a Sinn Fein justice minister? We have made
:46:22. > :46:26.our vision clear. We are examining a range of options but we believe it
:46:27. > :46:31.should be satisfactory to everyone as well. It will allow us to have a
:46:32. > :46:34.justice minister in place and we will command confidence and allowed
:46:35. > :46:40.the wider executive to be formed and get down to its work over the next
:46:41. > :46:45.years. Is Claire Sugden is serious candidate for justice minister? I
:46:46. > :46:49.think she is a very good Assembly minister and I think she has the
:46:50. > :46:53.skills and ability to be a minister. We have been speaking to her in the
:46:54. > :46:57.last couple of days and had a very good discussion with her yesterday.
:46:58. > :47:02.We are having a discussion and we will continue and we will continue
:47:03. > :47:07.to consider it between the parties at Stormont. Would you be happy to
:47:08. > :47:11.see her as justice minister? I have had the pleasure of working with her
:47:12. > :47:17.over the last few years and she has been very good Assembly met Merck
:47:18. > :47:21.and keeping ministers like me to account -- Assembly member. She is
:47:22. > :47:27.somebody who I think to do a job in the Executive. What about Stephen
:47:28. > :47:32.Agnew? We had a conversation with him yesterday. The Alliance party
:47:33. > :47:35.made requests and they wanted to see these things in the programme for
:47:36. > :47:38.Government and wanted to see implemented to dig up the blaze in
:47:39. > :47:47.the Executive. Some would be difficult for the DUP to agree to.
:47:48. > :47:51.We are having a discussion including discussing with other parties and
:47:52. > :47:58.Sinn Fein as well. There is a big irony, isn't there? The DUP quite
:47:59. > :48:03.happy for Sinn Fein to educate children and looking after unwell
:48:04. > :48:05.people but not justice? A lot of people wonder what partnership
:48:06. > :48:13.Government is about if you do not trust the other party enough? I
:48:14. > :48:17.think it is they had always assumed if the justice minister had been
:48:18. > :48:21.appointed it would have been somebody from Sinn Fein with the
:48:22. > :48:25.taint of a Republican past. For the DUP and voters that was a step too
:48:26. > :48:30.far. There is obviously something in the back pocket. I don't think going
:48:31. > :48:35.to have another election. Claire Sugden is a very capable Assembly
:48:36. > :48:39.member. She got elected as an independent. Does she want to be
:48:40. > :48:45.bolstering up the two parties? Could she do the job's is it realistic was
:48:46. > :48:50.my everyone can do the job. As an independent? Of course she can. If
:48:51. > :48:54.they ask to do it and you does it, simple as that. It is not
:48:55. > :48:59.problematic. The processors allow that to happen. Procedures allow
:49:00. > :49:02.that happen. At the end of the day, these two are the main parties. They
:49:03. > :49:06.should form a Government together and find a way to solve these
:49:07. > :49:10.problems as best they can. That is what the electorate have said.
:49:11. > :49:14.You're the two main parties, get on and make it a normalised to go
:49:15. > :49:18.system. That is how we move forward. Thank you for now.
:49:19. > :49:22.Thank you both for now - and if all goes to plan as the DUP
:49:23. > :49:24.and Sinn Fein see it, then some new faces will be sitting
:49:25. > :49:27.around the Executive table, some of them heading
:49:28. > :49:37.To begin at the top, the awkwardly titled... Becomes simply the
:49:38. > :49:41.Executive office. There is no change at the Department of Finance. The
:49:42. > :49:45.Department of Health remains just that, as does the Department of
:49:46. > :49:50.Justice. The Department for Education keeps its name, although
:49:51. > :49:54.it takes over a range of children's services, currently dispersed among
:49:55. > :50:01.other departments. After that, it is all change. The new Department of
:50:02. > :50:06.agricultural Department, combines agriculture. The rest of the GOP is
:50:07. > :50:11.taken up by the Department of infrastructure, along with the
:50:12. > :50:14.Department of regional development. A new Department of the economy,
:50:15. > :50:23.eats up the old Department of trade and investment. The new Department
:50:24. > :50:25.for communities sees the Department of culture, arts and leisure
:50:26. > :50:27.amalgamate with the Department of social development.
:50:28. > :50:29.Hope you followed that - and, of course, one of the big
:50:30. > :50:33.stories of the next week is likely to be who the new Education Minister
:50:34. > :50:36.is in the new Executive, because he or she will be walking
:50:37. > :50:38.into a situation where there are unprecedented fears over school
:50:39. > :50:43.With me in the studio now are Deirdre Gillespie,
:50:44. > :50:45.the Principal of St Mary's Grammar School in Magherafelt,
:50:46. > :50:47.and Ralph Magee, the Principal of Andrews Memorial Primary
:50:48. > :50:56.In the weeks leading up to the election we heard serious
:50:57. > :50:58.concerns about the increasing costs that schools are facing
:50:59. > :51:00.and the effect on class sizes and subjects being offered.
:51:01. > :51:04.There's been a lot of talk about opposition since the election -
:51:05. > :51:06.but presumably you just want to get an Education Minister
:51:07. > :51:20.Absolutely. Schools are facing unprecedented financial pressure at
:51:21. > :51:25.present. Schools in my sector have deficits ranging from 100,000 to
:51:26. > :51:31.500,000 over a period of three years. The situation at the moment
:51:32. > :51:36.is unsustainable. That has almost come out of nowhere? Absolutely. I
:51:37. > :51:40.left school around Easter with, I thought, a surplus of 1000 and came
:51:41. > :51:45.back with a deficit of ?190,000. This is, on the back of successive
:51:46. > :51:50.cuts over the years were schools have put in cost saving measures and
:51:51. > :51:54.we had nowhere else to go. I have cut my teaching workforce over the
:51:55. > :51:58.last four years by 10%. If I have to balance might looks, that would mean
:51:59. > :52:03.more cuts in staff, which would result in bigger class sizes, less
:52:04. > :52:07.subject choice and not being able to deliver on key policies. Is it the
:52:08. > :52:12.same situation in the primary sector? In terms of the outworking
:52:13. > :52:15.deficits, yes, it is. It is a slightly different look when the
:52:16. > :52:18.impact is looked at in terms of primary because we're not talking
:52:19. > :52:22.about subject choices, we are talking about having a teacher in
:52:23. > :52:27.the classroom. The scary side to this is we are looking at schools
:52:28. > :52:31.across the board in all sectors, sustainable schools over as the
:52:32. > :52:36.tv-mac oversubscribed schools, popular schools, who now face a
:52:37. > :52:41.situation of having to cut cord teacher star. You will have children
:52:42. > :52:46.with no teachers. That result in huge class sizes. Key stage one, we
:52:47. > :52:51.have to ask permission from the Department to go above 30, that is
:52:52. > :52:54.going to disappear. It is frightening prospect. Deidre, we had
:52:55. > :53:01.the Donaldson report on health, which topped about the need for bald
:53:02. > :53:05.but good decision-making where services should be minting or not
:53:06. > :53:11.maintained depending on value for money. It was going to be on
:53:12. > :53:15.politicians to grasp the nettle and make tough choices. They may be
:53:16. > :53:18.unpopular. Is this same scenario beginning to emerge in education?
:53:19. > :53:23.There are two issues that any minister needs to grasp quickly,
:53:24. > :53:26.that is the allocation of funding directly to schools. Currently, 41%
:53:27. > :53:34.of the school budget goes to administration. It leaves only 59%
:53:35. > :53:38.directly to schools. That is in contrast to the jurisdictions in the
:53:39. > :53:43.UK, 90% goes to the front line. There is an urgent need to look at
:53:44. > :53:47.the allocation of funding to schools, to ensure our young people
:53:48. > :53:51.have the facilities that would lead to high quality education. Might it
:53:52. > :53:54.mean we need to seriously sit down and look at school closures? There
:53:55. > :54:00.was a report couple of years ago that said we have 1200 schools. We
:54:01. > :54:04.need about 700. Absolutely. These are the hard decisions they will
:54:05. > :54:09.have to make. Last year of education committee put together a draft paper
:54:10. > :54:16.on -based planning. They said they were 56 surplus places in primary
:54:17. > :54:21.school we have six forms that do not comply to 100 or more, which would
:54:22. > :54:27.equate to a value for money. There is a serious need to look at the
:54:28. > :54:32.school estate. Is that what the new education Minister needs to tackle
:54:33. > :54:38.when he or she sits down behind a desk next Friday, the possibility of
:54:39. > :54:44.closing schools across Northern Ireland? Well, as we have both said,
:54:45. > :54:47.and the facts speak for themselves. The current situation is
:54:48. > :54:51.unsustainable. You have a huge number of schools in Northern
:54:52. > :54:54.Ireland, which will be thrown into financial crisis. Nobody wants to be
:54:55. > :54:59.responsible for that, that's the reality. We know we have too many
:55:00. > :55:03.schools, we also have too many sectors. We have too much.
:55:04. > :55:08.Administration Those are really hard things to talk about in a divided
:55:09. > :55:11.society. They have to be talked about because increasingly we are
:55:12. > :55:17.talking in terms of public service, education is one of them. We are not
:55:18. > :55:20.talking about learning and the excitement, we're talking about
:55:21. > :55:26.money. We are talking about making cuts. In a nutshell, if the nettle
:55:27. > :55:29.is not grasped and the Minister and people working for the minister did
:55:30. > :55:35.not deal with this issue, what happens? Well, you ultimately have a
:55:36. > :55:39.board of governors who are handing in financial plans that will not be
:55:40. > :55:43.approved by the education authority, and they will ultimately, if the
:55:44. > :55:47.governor says no, we cannot do any more, they are going to say over the
:55:48. > :55:50.next number of weeks or are seeing now, the board or education
:55:51. > :55:55.authority will have to run them for them. They will not be able to do
:55:56. > :55:58.that because they will have to cut people. Primary, we will have no
:55:59. > :56:04.teachers. That is something that is going to happen. It is an
:56:05. > :56:08.apocalyptic scenario. If you follow logically and what needs to be done
:56:09. > :56:12.is not done, it's a disaster? Absolutely. The people who are going
:56:13. > :56:15.to suffer in all of this our young people. We're not going to be able
:56:16. > :56:19.to provide the quality of education that we do. They will be a
:56:20. > :56:25.generation of lost opportunity. Let's bring Pete and Alison in.
:56:26. > :56:29.Pete, you are an educationist. You followed this closely. How would you
:56:30. > :56:33.deal with the apparent contradictions that I presenting?
:56:34. > :56:43.First of all, what Deidre said is wrong. You should be -- you should
:56:44. > :56:48.not be having bad management. That should be corrected by the Assembly
:56:49. > :56:52.wrong, because it is happening? You expect the majority of the pound to
:56:53. > :56:58.go to what you are facilitating. More physical control? The other
:56:59. > :57:06.issue is the education system. RB ever going to get rid of -- are we
:57:07. > :57:10.ever going to get rid... Why are we producing people to become teachers,
:57:11. > :57:14.we have three different sites in Northern Ireland. That costs a lot
:57:15. > :57:19.of money. One of the knock on is that to be University of Ulster have
:57:20. > :57:26.led to redundancies and students have come out and protest it. This
:57:27. > :57:33.is a mess. This is a mess. It is a challenge about the past, how do we
:57:34. > :57:36.get rid of the education system. If we went to allow a good health
:57:37. > :57:42.service, an investment in the society, we want to need to make
:57:43. > :57:46.hard decisions in the education sector. That will save money and
:57:47. > :57:51.protect the long-term future. You will have to swallow some bitter
:57:52. > :57:55.pills now. We need to do that to have a normalised functioning budget
:57:56. > :57:59.for the society. But the challenges for the politicians but, Alison,
:58:00. > :58:02.very often in Northern Ireland politicians are not enthusiastic
:58:03. > :58:06.about taking those difficult decisions. In the last
:58:07. > :58:12.administration, the Sinn Fein education minister, had he shut down
:58:13. > :58:17.a rule school in a Protestant area,... Ill expect we're going to
:58:18. > :58:21.have a DUP Minister. Should they shut down an Irish language school,
:58:22. > :58:24.they are going to be accused of being sectarian. It is very
:58:25. > :58:30.difficult to take those decisions without being accused of feeding
:58:31. > :58:33.into some sort of sectarian diatribe. What Pete said about
:58:34. > :58:40.education, we do not speak about that any more. I think we have just
:58:41. > :58:43.given up. Let's go back to the principles, do you think there could
:58:44. > :58:46.be good in terms of delivering the change that needs to happen? We will
:58:47. > :58:51.have some kind of formalised opposition? Do think that would help
:58:52. > :58:56.the debate around these difficult decisions? Are supposed to give the
:58:57. > :58:59.party in opposition the freedom to object and to voice their opinions
:59:00. > :59:05.and concerns. And to call the Minister to account? Absolutely. The
:59:06. > :59:09.bottom line is, I hate to repeat the word unsustainable, but it is
:59:10. > :59:13.unsustainable. We cannot have a system running like this. Perhaps
:59:14. > :59:18.this budget, this finance issue, has brought things to a head. We
:59:19. > :59:21.definitely have to start discussing. Deidre, opposition a good thing?
:59:22. > :59:26.Absolutely. They will hold Government to account and there will
:59:27. > :59:30.be a voice, hopefully, for education. Just a final thought,
:59:31. > :59:33.we've been talking about parties fighting over education. It could
:59:34. > :59:41.become Wednesday the all running away from education board portfolio.
:59:42. > :59:45.There are problems and minefields. Clearly, a Government will be set
:59:46. > :59:49.up. These two parties have too realised the competition against
:59:50. > :59:52.them is not there. The DP looking over the shoulder, Sinn Fein looking
:59:53. > :59:56.over their shoulder, they have to stop doing that. -- DUP. That is it
:59:57. > :59:58.from all of it is therefore the public
:59:59. > :00:02.as well as serving a useful purpose To you both, thank you very much
:00:03. > :00:04.indeed. And with that, it is
:00:05. > :00:08.back to you, Andrew. Treasury warnings on Brexit,
:00:09. > :00:11.is Labour on course for 2020, and are there enough women
:00:12. > :00:13.in the referendum campaign? And joining me and my panel
:00:14. > :00:24.of so-called experts, is the former Deputy Leader
:00:25. > :00:36.of the Labour Party Harriet Harman. Wellcome, it is nice to see you
:00:37. > :00:41.again. The Treasury has already told us how bad the economy will be in
:00:42. > :00:47.2030, but nobody really knows. This is about, in their view, the
:00:48. > :00:51.immediate impact on interest rates, mortgages, jobs, house prices,
:00:52. > :00:57.before the autumn is out. This I would suggest is politically more
:00:58. > :01:01.significant? Yes, and it is absolutely the Remain campaign's
:01:02. > :01:09.biggest howitzer which is why they are firing it now. This is the last
:01:10. > :01:14.time they can deploy the full mast ranks of the government's resources
:01:15. > :01:17.into the campaign. Most people disagree passionately in this
:01:18. > :01:20.campaign about whether over the long-term the British economy will
:01:21. > :01:25.prosper or not outside the EU. Pretty much everybody, I think apart
:01:26. > :01:32.from Boris Johnson has admits it there might be some short-term
:01:33. > :01:37.problems. It is the same with retail. We have heard from the Prime
:01:38. > :01:43.Minister today. And mortgages, smacking people as hard as they can
:01:44. > :01:48.in their pockets. Even Boris Johnson said there would be a fall because
:01:49. > :01:52.he hopes it will go up. People may be nervous that when they get onto
:01:53. > :01:58.that tick it does not stop falling. It will be a difficult one for the
:01:59. > :02:03.Leave campaign? Guess, and I am picking up a lot of concern in the
:02:04. > :02:08.various Brexit camps. They look as if they have conceded the argument
:02:09. > :02:11.on the economy. Of course, they emphatically argue the opposite
:02:12. > :02:14.direction is that we can do even better out, but there is a lot of
:02:15. > :02:17.concern among those who want to leave, that those who are
:02:18. > :02:21.representing them in these campaigns, are not putting the
:02:22. > :02:25.argument strongly enough and are almost backing of it which is why we
:02:26. > :02:29.are hearing arguments about Turkey and immigration and other things. I
:02:30. > :02:34.think Leave has to come out really strongly and rebut what the Treasury
:02:35. > :02:40.is saying point by point, whether it is on food prices, and there is a
:02:41. > :02:42.compelling argument that the Common Agricultural Policy example
:02:43. > :02:46.massively distorts prices. Food may not be more expensive when we come
:02:47. > :02:53.out so we need to rebut it line by line. -- they need to rebut it. The
:02:54. > :02:58.polling suggests if you are worried about the economy you will more
:02:59. > :03:01.likely to vote Remain, if you are more worried about public services,
:03:02. > :03:09.you will be more likely to vote Leave. This will create a sense of
:03:10. > :03:14.economic uncertainty? Yes, and it will be interesting if they make a
:03:15. > :03:17.GDP prediction. We are talking about food prices and employment but will
:03:18. > :03:22.they predict a technical recession in GDP which I imagine will happen
:03:23. > :03:26.if we vote to leave. The Bank of England has admitted that is a
:03:27. > :03:37.possibility. I can think of people who are very high up in British
:03:38. > :03:40.public life who are downplaying their view about how bad the GDP
:03:41. > :03:42.crisis will be in the short-term. I agree with Isobel, it is strange to
:03:43. > :03:46.concede the short-term economic argument. You cannot say here is the
:03:47. > :03:53.reality of a short-term recession. In return, there is the prospect of
:03:54. > :03:59.a longer-term economic benefit which realises in 2030. Labour does not
:04:00. > :04:03.normally think very much of Tory forecasts. Will you accept this? We
:04:04. > :04:07.are very concerned about jobs and prices and we are very concerned
:04:08. > :04:11.about the cavalier sense that it might be a bit of a problem in the
:04:12. > :04:16.short-term but it will be fine in the long-term, two reasons.
:04:17. > :04:20.Obviously, the Treasury forecasts will be very well worth picking
:04:21. > :04:24.through and looking through and will be very persuasive. As far as the
:04:25. > :04:28.short-term is concerned, we are trying to find our way out of a
:04:29. > :04:32.global financial crisis, and the idea that it would not cause major
:04:33. > :04:39.uncertainty and instability to leave an economic union that we have been
:04:40. > :04:44.part of four decades, it is a no-brainer even before tomorrow. You
:04:45. > :04:50.think the short-term is a problem if we vote to leave? It will be a
:04:51. > :04:55.problem about jobs, a problem about prices. Why on earth would we want
:04:56. > :05:00.to try and distance ourselves from this biggest trading block of 500
:05:01. > :05:04.million people. Why would we want to struggle for keeping our head above
:05:05. > :05:09.water in the longer term when we are in the EU as we are? I think it is
:05:10. > :05:12.cavalier from people who are not worried about prices and to feel
:05:13. > :05:20.happy that their jobs are fine, let's make this bid for freedom. I
:05:21. > :05:24.think it is reckless. Reckless? I think there is an accession among
:05:25. > :05:29.the Remain camp and it is interesting that Harriet brings this
:05:30. > :05:34.up, constantly bringing up trade associations. We can trade without
:05:35. > :05:39.trade deals. We talk about the Remain camp focuses highly on the
:05:40. > :05:43.importance of the trade deals have, but we are a service economy run
:05:44. > :05:47.airily, and those trade deals do not cover the service sector. We can
:05:48. > :05:51.trade but if you look without trade deals, that means paying tariffs,
:05:52. > :05:55.for example. If you look at the food in our supermarkets which comes in
:05:56. > :06:01.from Europe, they can put tariffs on that to make it cost more, and why
:06:02. > :06:05.wouldn't they, if we opt out of that free trade area? They would not put
:06:06. > :06:10.tariffs on food coming into Britain. We might do that, but they would not
:06:11. > :06:15.do that. We would take off the tariffs from the food that comes
:06:16. > :06:20.from America, Australia and New Zealand. We are in an established
:06:21. > :06:26.range of trading which has been going on for decades and has seen
:06:27. > :06:34.food prices going down. That is a big issue if you are on a low
:06:35. > :06:40.income. Why would we take that risk? The former chief executives of
:06:41. > :06:44.supermarkets, and they have not got any skin in the game because they
:06:45. > :06:47.are former chief executives, they have said because of these
:06:48. > :06:52.established arrangements, prices are likely to go up. We will hear more
:06:53. > :06:57.of that this week with the Treasury report which is coming out tomorrow
:06:58. > :07:01.morning. Talking about the economy, let's hear a word from John
:07:02. > :07:03.McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor about Labour in the economy. This is
:07:04. > :07:08.what he had to say yesterday. Our whole society could do so much
:07:09. > :07:11.better than we are at the moment. What we have attempted over the last
:07:12. > :07:14.eight months is to lay out the framework by which Labour can
:07:15. > :07:17.win the next election, and then set about the fundamental
:07:18. > :07:19.business of transforming capitalism. We should aim at nothing
:07:20. > :07:31.less than that. So, socialism in one parliament,
:07:32. > :07:36.that must excite you? He is talking about a new economic policy which
:07:37. > :07:40.will talk about fairness and investment and he says we will be on
:07:41. > :07:46.a listening exercise as they put the flesh on the bones. He is talking
:07:47. > :07:51.about remaking capitalism, not reforming it, not liberalising it,
:07:52. > :07:57.remaking capitalism. Is that realistic? I think there is a bit of
:07:58. > :08:02.remaking to be done, for example, remaking the responsibilities of big
:08:03. > :08:10.businesses to repay their taxes, do we think it is all sorted? It is
:08:11. > :08:14.certainly not. Every government tells me they will put more
:08:15. > :08:19.apprentices and you look carefully and they don't really. This
:08:20. > :08:22.government, a lot of the apprentices are not what the Germans or
:08:23. > :08:30.Austrians would regard as apprentices. Chasing that tax seems
:08:31. > :08:35.to be in a never-ending chase as you try and close the loopholes. Because
:08:36. > :08:38.it has not necessarily been done so far, and all credit to Margaret
:08:39. > :08:41.Hodge and the Public Accounts Committee in exposing all of this,
:08:42. > :08:47.does not mean it cannot be done. We could have lots more investment if
:08:48. > :08:52.people paid their tax and we could have much more prosperity in the
:08:53. > :08:57.economy, but he is recognising we have to convince people that they
:08:58. > :09:01.can trust us on the economy. Are you happy with the direction he is
:09:02. > :09:05.taking you? I think the principles he is setting out is right. We got
:09:06. > :09:09.the wrong answer in the general election last time and we got to be
:09:10. > :09:13.the opposition rather than the government, and we have to get a
:09:14. > :09:17.different answer next time and that means convincing the public. It is
:09:18. > :09:22.about setting up a framework that also making sure we are listening to
:09:23. > :09:27.what the public's concerns are about us, not what we want to hear but
:09:28. > :09:31.what they are saying. You don't think there are enough women
:09:32. > :09:36.involved in the referendum campaign? Would it not be fair to say that it
:09:37. > :09:42.is really the Remain side which has the female problem. The Leave site
:09:43. > :09:47.has Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, pretty Patel, Penny Mordaunt and so on. It
:09:48. > :09:57.is your side which is lacking the women -- pretty Patel. There is
:09:58. > :10:05.hardly anything between either side. Really? Could you do a list like
:10:06. > :10:11.that? One of the things we are saying is actually, being in the EU
:10:12. > :10:15.has helped back-up women at work. It is paradoxical, and it might seem
:10:16. > :10:19.unlikely, but the EU has been a strong friend to women at work and
:10:20. > :10:24.these directives which governments always do not like, either Labour or
:10:25. > :10:29.the Tories don't like the idea of directives from Europe, but they
:10:30. > :10:33.have been backing up part-time workers... I understand that but I
:10:34. > :10:37.am looking at the fact that you have said there are not enough female
:10:38. > :10:45.voices in the campaign. Do you agree with that? I would agree with you.
:10:46. > :10:53.The Leave women are pretty loud. Where is Theresa May? She is the
:10:54. > :10:59.single biggest female voice and she is almost mute. The idea that the
:11:00. > :11:03.Leave side is in some post feminist political nirvana is for the
:11:04. > :11:06.absolute birds. And I think of the Leave side I think of Boris Johnson
:11:07. > :11:16.and Nigel Farage and I cannot bear to think about it. I just gave you a
:11:17. > :11:23.list. And Iain Duncan Smith. Five prominent women campaigners. Are you
:11:24. > :11:28.saying they are a post feminist haven? No, I don't think they would
:11:29. > :11:33.know what that is. I am trying to work out if your side has more of a
:11:34. > :11:38.problem, but let's move on. You say the EU is a beacon of gender
:11:39. > :11:43.equality. I would like you to look at this. These are all the top jobs
:11:44. > :11:48.in the European Union. Something probably strikes you about that.
:11:49. > :11:53.Where is the gender equality in the EU in the top seven jobs? That is
:11:54. > :11:58.why it is an irony that actually, the directives and European court
:11:59. > :12:06.judgments have backed up women at work. Except in the EU itself? But
:12:07. > :12:09.if you look at the Treaty of Rome, which was very much ahead of its
:12:10. > :12:15.time, saying you have to pay women equally and treat women equally...
:12:16. > :12:19.It is do as I say, not as I do. It looks like a boys' club up there.
:12:20. > :12:25.And the other thing that strikes me about this row of men. Who are these
:12:26. > :12:29.people? Could you recognise all those people? Could you even
:12:30. > :12:35.recognise one of them? I do know who they are and I don't like the fact
:12:36. > :12:40.they are all men... That tells you about the EU and our sovereignty.
:12:41. > :12:44.No, it does not. The directives from Europe have backed up women at work,
:12:45. > :12:49.part-timers, low-paid women, women having babies. If our own government
:12:50. > :12:56.would have done it, more better. Why haven't they read the directives? I
:12:57. > :12:59.don't know who they are. That speaks for itself. They are the people you
:13:00. > :13:04.think should be running us and you don't know who they are! I am
:13:05. > :13:10.talking about the facts of the impact for women at work about us
:13:11. > :13:14.being in the EU and our rights on maternity and equal pay. The
:13:15. > :13:21.directives have helped us even when our own government have not. They do
:13:22. > :13:27.not seem to have got the message. You have picked them at random! No,
:13:28. > :13:36.they are not! Bayard the top seven jobs in the EU. Ranks to all our
:13:37. > :13:43.guests, good to see Harry it back. -- thanks to all our guests, good to
:13:44. > :13:46.see Harry it back. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday
:13:47. > :13:52.Politics, unless it is the Whitsun bank holiday.