:00:36. > :00:42.Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria
:00:43. > :00:46.Later this week, David Cameron set out his strategy
:00:47. > :00:55.George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts
:00:56. > :00:59.as he gears up for his Spending Review this week.
:01:00. > :01:03.We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.
:01:04. > :01:06.And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.
:01:07. > :01:12.And coming up here: can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?
:01:13. > :01:15.An emotional DUP conference bids farewell to its leader.
:01:16. > :01:21.Plus the deal we waited so long for - is it a Fresh Start or
:01:22. > :01:32.And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political
:01:33. > :01:43.They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.
:01:44. > :01:45.Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting
:01:46. > :01:48.Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has
:01:49. > :01:51.embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in
:01:52. > :01:53.Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.
:01:54. > :01:56.The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem
:01:57. > :01:59.Later this week, David Cameron will present
:02:00. > :02:03.his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority
:02:04. > :02:10.Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,
:02:11. > :02:13.This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,
:02:14. > :02:16.our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater
:02:17. > :02:22.The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament
:02:23. > :02:27.for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly
:02:28. > :02:30.Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines
:02:31. > :02:45.Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the
:02:46. > :02:56.putting together, of majority for the Prime Minister's desire to bomb
:02:57. > :02:59.in Syria? They are being reasonably cautious that they are pretty
:03:00. > :03:03.confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have
:03:04. > :03:07.happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he
:03:08. > :03:11.was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy
:03:12. > :03:16.Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said
:03:17. > :03:21.he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they
:03:22. > :03:25.would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there
:03:26. > :03:30.was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by
:03:31. > :03:36.Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he
:03:37. > :03:41.possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs at
:03:42. > :03:43.Westminster, he is indicating that if the Prime Minister set this
:03:44. > :03:48.out... It looks like the numbers are if the Prime Minister set this
:03:49. > :04:03.say was credible. We are told rebels thinking of voting with the
:04:04. > :04:08.Government or abstaining could be as high as 50. What is your
:04:09. > :04:13.intelligence? A huge number, from very senior people as well. Actually
:04:14. > :04:20.the number of senior people leaving, exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think
:04:21. > :04:25.a challenging week would be an understatement. It is at a whole new
:04:26. > :04:29.level. There is only so much time you can buy with free votes. Jeremy
:04:30. > :04:34.Corbyn opposes the party policy. This time he would set his own
:04:35. > :04:38.policy but no 1 would come with him. How many times can you play that
:04:39. > :04:44.trick before people say this is a loose conglomeration of individuals
:04:45. > :04:50.and not a party? Do you think he would go for a free vote? Maria
:04:51. > :04:56.Eagle has just published a paper which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn
:04:57. > :05:01.has been making noises about this. Who is there to support, apart from
:05:02. > :05:07.John McDonnell, in this position? He is very isolated on this. The
:05:08. > :05:10.problem for the Prime Minister is, in a sense he gets what he wishes
:05:11. > :05:16.for. We begin joining others in bombing and things do not really
:05:17. > :05:20.changed in Syria. I do not think the House of Commons is the primary
:05:21. > :05:23.obstacle facing David Cameron. I think he will get the votes could
:05:24. > :05:27.not see much because of the case he will make later this week but
:05:28. > :05:35.because what happened in the last week. They focused on all necessary
:05:36. > :05:39.measures and use combat as a metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor,
:05:40. > :05:42.I think. The biggest problem is not the Parliamentary vote for David
:05:43. > :05:46.Cameron, it is the diplomatic struggle to agree with Russia
:05:47. > :05:51.exactly how we go about this. Russia are happy to bomb in Syria against
:05:52. > :05:55.Isil but they are not happy to do so in a way which, in their words,
:05:56. > :05:58.destroys the statehood of Syria which alludes to their traditional
:05:59. > :06:05.support for the existing Syrian state and basher al-Assad. The
:06:06. > :06:11.politics is far more challenging than the technical act of getting
:06:12. > :06:18.the votes together. That is the problem. What is the endgame?
:06:19. > :06:24.Transition can sometimes take a long time. A very long transition.
:06:25. > :06:26.On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne will announce the Government's
:06:27. > :06:29.Over the next five years, they will total ?4 trillion.
:06:30. > :06:32.But even to stay within that barely imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne
:06:33. > :06:35.will have to continue to cut departmental and welfare spending.
:06:36. > :06:40.Hence the mantra you will hear this week of "a country that lives within
:06:41. > :06:44.its means" - in other words more of a squeeze on many public services.
:06:45. > :06:46.The Chancellor wants government departments to find
:06:47. > :06:51.a further ?20 billion worth of savings between now and 2020.
:06:52. > :06:54.So, where could that money come from?
:06:55. > :06:59.Welcome to our virtual Treasury courtyard.
:07:00. > :07:02.Now, they don't have one of these in the real courtyard
:07:03. > :07:07.but it represents everything the Government is due to spend this year
:07:08. > :07:14.I'm going to start by highlighting a few of the most significant parts
:07:15. > :07:21.You can see the ?217 billion which goes on Social Security.
:07:22. > :07:24.That includes everything from jobseeker's allowance to
:07:25. > :07:30.There is the ?35 billion the UK is due to spend this year
:07:31. > :07:38.And George Osborne says that's a figure he is determined to bring
:07:39. > :07:42.Now, the focus of his statement is the
:07:43. > :07:45.money which goes on administering and delivering public services.
:07:46. > :07:51.Here it is, and you can see it's just under half
:07:52. > :07:55.We are going to delve into the budgets of a few of the most
:07:56. > :08:03.It is the NHS which accounts for the biggest chunk
:08:04. > :08:08.The Chancellor is not going to find any of his savings here
:08:09. > :08:11.because he has promised to increase NHS funding in England by ?10
:08:12. > :08:20.The Government's also promised a real terms increase
:08:21. > :08:26.That is part of its commitment to meeting the Nato target of spending
:08:27. > :08:35.The Government is also committed to spending 0.7% of GDP
:08:36. > :08:41.on overseas aid - meaning that budget is also protected.
:08:42. > :08:45.So, the Chancellor is not going to find any of his ?20 billion
:08:46. > :08:50.of savings he says he needs to make from either health, defence or aid.
:08:51. > :08:52.So, where could it come from instead?
:08:53. > :08:55.What about from the education budget?
:08:56. > :08:59.That is a big part of what the state spends on public services.
:09:00. > :09:01.Here the Conservatives have promised a
:09:02. > :09:08.That means savings from here will be limited.
:09:09. > :09:13.Although the rest of the budget does not have any guaranteed protection.
:09:14. > :09:16.Here is the money that goes to English local authorities.
:09:17. > :09:19.This was one of the first departments to agree to big savings
:09:20. > :09:29.Let's look at the Home Office whose budget this year is ?10.6 billion.
:09:30. > :09:31.The single biggest thing Theresa May's department spends
:09:32. > :09:37.money on is the grant it gives to police forces in England and Wales.
:09:38. > :09:40.Although they also get some of their money from other sources including
:09:41. > :09:47.And some of the other departments which are going to have to find big
:09:48. > :09:57.savings over the next four years are the departments of business,
:09:58. > :10:04.But let's go back to that big part of government spending I mentioned
:10:05. > :10:07.Because of course that is where a lot
:10:08. > :10:10.of the focus has been in the weeks and months before this statement.
:10:11. > :10:12.Again here there is plenty the Chancellor will not touch.
:10:13. > :10:16.The state pension is a massive part of the budget.
:10:17. > :10:18.But the Government has a long-standing promise not to cut
:10:19. > :10:23.it along with various pensioner benefits.
:10:24. > :10:26.The other areas of big spending the Government has had to look to
:10:27. > :10:34.are housing benefit, disability benefits and incapacity benefits.
:10:35. > :10:37.And, you can see that big sum of money, ?30 billion,
:10:38. > :10:40.which is due to be spent on personal tax credits this year.
:10:41. > :10:43.An area where the Chancellor has found that making savings can
:10:44. > :10:49.So, the Chancellor faces some tricky trade-offs on Wednesday
:10:50. > :10:52.when he unveils his spending plans for the next five years.
:10:53. > :11:02.Paul Johnson from the Institute of Fiscal Studies has some ideas.
:11:03. > :11:10.Paul, welcome back to the programme. Let's start with this tricky
:11:11. > :11:15.question of tax credits. What is the Chancellor, in your view, most
:11:16. > :11:20.likely to do? He has two big choices. He can decide not to make
:11:21. > :11:25.any cuts, or much in the wake of cuts, next April. That is what all
:11:26. > :11:30.of the bus has been about, the cuts that will come in next April. -- the
:11:31. > :11:34.fuss. Most of the savings will come in the long run full he has also
:11:35. > :11:42.announced the new universal credit system will be much less generous
:11:43. > :11:45.than he was originally intending. In five or ten years time, even if he
:11:46. > :11:48.does not put the cut scene he was planning in April, he will still
:11:49. > :11:51.make much the same level of saving for them if he does that, his
:11:52. > :11:55.spending in 2016 on welfare for them if he does that, his
:11:56. > :11:59.will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust
:12:00. > :12:00.will be ?4 billion or so higher than own welfare cap, the cap he has
:12:01. > :12:05.legislated, which assumes he own welfare cap, the cap he has
:12:06. > :12:13.make those savings. That is one option. The other option is he will
:12:14. > :12:15.try to find some savings in 2016, maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits
:12:16. > :12:22.that have some savings and look elsewhere in the welfare budget to
:12:23. > :12:23.make up the rest of the savings. Whatever he does on tax credits
:12:24. > :12:28.make up the rest of the savings. cost money, certainly in the short
:12:29. > :12:32.run. His deficit reduction plan for the ship is
:12:33. > :12:34.run. His deficit reduction plan for trouble. He faces huge pressures to
:12:35. > :12:39.run. His deficit reduction plan for spend more on everything from health
:12:40. > :12:42.run. His deficit reduction plan for to Social Security. -- for this year
:12:43. > :12:44.run. His deficit reduction plan for is already in some trouble. The
:12:45. > :12:44.first thing to say about that surplus in
:12:45. > :12:49.first thing to say about that amount of uncertainty about
:12:50. > :12:51.first thing to say about that will be. Forecasting these things
:12:52. > :12:56.first thing to say about that view ad is an extreme you tricky and
:12:57. > :12:57.uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world
:12:58. > :13:01.uncertain business. Ignoring that, expects over the next few
:13:02. > :13:03.uncertain business. Ignoring that, will require cuts of about 25% in
:13:04. > :13:07.those unprotected apartments we have will require cuts of about 25% in
:13:08. > :13:08.just heard about the Home Office, local government, and so on,
:13:09. > :13:15.just heard about the Home Office, last parliament will Boyd -- involve
:13:16. > :13:16.really sharp last parliament will Boyd -- involve
:13:17. > :13:22.2020. They are big changes to way which we will deliver local
:13:23. > :13:22.Gottman way which we will deliver local
:13:23. > :13:25.delivering police force, way which we will deliver local
:13:26. > :13:36.will be delivering way which we will deliver local
:13:37. > :13:42.decade. Let me get these right. When you add up all the cuts, those made
:13:43. > :13:46.in those about to happen, between 20102020, major departments, the
:13:47. > :13:57.unprotected ones, will face cuts of up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is
:13:58. > :14:00.it doable? That is a good question. It may not turn up that badly if the
:14:01. > :14:05.economy does better than expected all the Chancellor finds some
:14:06. > :14:11.additional savings in Social Security, or he does not aim for the
:14:12. > :14:16.10 million surplus and goes for a 1 billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If
:14:17. > :14:22.he does go down that route, it will be more difficult than it was in the
:14:23. > :14:26.last parliament. If there were easy cuts to have made, they will have
:14:27. > :14:30.been made already. Do not forget one of the biggest bits of public
:14:31. > :14:35.spending goes on the pay of people who work in the public sector, the
:14:36. > :14:39.pay of nurses, teachers and civil servants and so on. That was quite
:14:40. > :14:44.easy to hold down over the last parliament. Pay in the private
:14:45. > :14:49.sector was doing so badly. We expect, almost economists now expect
:14:50. > :14:57.that pay in the private sector will rise well to be strongly. In that
:14:58. > :15:00.world it will be quite hard to hold down pay right across the public
:15:01. > :15:02.sector, as he said he would do back in the July budget.
:15:03. > :15:04.Joining me now Nigel Lawson, Margaret Thatcher's longest serving
:15:05. > :15:15.Welcome back to the programme. Thank you, I enjoyed your rant the other
:15:16. > :15:19.day. It was not a rant, it was a carefully scripted commentary but
:15:20. > :15:24.thank you for your remarks. Let me take an overall review on the
:15:25. > :15:28.Chancellor 's position. The borrowing figures for October were
:15:29. > :15:36.pretty bad, looks like he will overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is
:15:37. > :15:40.the austerity programme in trouble again? It is difficult, he has a
:15:41. > :15:47.difficult time because of these ridiculous protected programmes
:15:48. > :15:51.which should not exist. Aid is going up again and again, the Nobel Prize
:15:52. > :15:58.for economics has been given to an English economist, he is Scottish in
:15:59. > :16:04.fact, and one of his principal findings, he is a great expert on
:16:05. > :16:08.global poverty and one of his major findings is that overseas aid
:16:09. > :16:13.although well-intentioned does more harm than good. Yet that is going up
:16:14. > :16:20.and up. He has got a tough time but it can be done. When I was
:16:21. > :16:26.Chancellor I was able to balance the budget and get it into surplus and
:16:27. > :16:32.he has to do it as well. He has huge pressure on security, the police,
:16:33. > :16:38.the NHS, we were just talking about mitigating cuts on the tax credit
:16:39. > :16:41.side, these are all hard to resist in the current atmosphere. It is
:16:42. > :16:46.going to be very difficult and although I suspect it will mainly be
:16:47. > :16:50.cuts in savings in public spending I think he will have to do more on the
:16:51. > :16:57.tax side than he would have liked. There is some logic in that, for
:16:58. > :17:01.example it looks as if, Paul Johnson was seeing, or maybe it was you, but
:17:02. > :17:07.he is likely to some extent to defer the cutting of the tax credits. It's
:17:08. > :17:12.quite right to take a knife to the tax credits, they have grown far too
:17:13. > :17:16.much and are undesirable in their present size. But nonetheless what
:17:17. > :17:22.he did propose originally was a bit too much for some and therefore he
:17:23. > :17:25.has got to delay it a bit. But when he presented, he presented a package
:17:26. > :17:32.including raising income tax threshold. He could, as part of the
:17:33. > :17:38.package delay that a little bit and help on the tax side. The government
:17:39. > :17:42.has always said it will do all the heavy lifting, the heavy lifting
:17:43. > :17:45.will be done by cuts in spending rather than increasing taxes. Will
:17:46. > :17:51.he now have to look at increasing some taxes are hats at a time of low
:17:52. > :17:59.oil prices on fuel duty? I think that's a good suggestion and it is
:18:00. > :18:04.sensible to do that. But defer a reduction which he might find
:18:05. > :18:11.less... Yes but might he have to look at some tax rises? I think you
:18:12. > :18:14.should look at the fuel duty, yes. President Hollande has said that
:18:15. > :18:21.national security comes before deficit reduction, he has sidelined
:18:22. > :18:27.the fiscal pact he has with the rest of Europe. He plans a huge increase
:18:28. > :18:31.in security spending, 17,000 more police and border guards and other
:18:32. > :18:36.security personnel. Will the British be looking at George Osborne to do
:18:37. > :18:39.something similar next week? President Hollande has never been
:18:40. > :18:43.keen on deficit-reduction in the first place. It's not unconnected
:18:44. > :18:46.with the fact as well that the French economy, and I live in
:18:47. > :18:54.France, the French economy is in a bad way. We are doing much better.
:18:55. > :18:59.Security is important but the government has said very clearly
:19:00. > :19:05.that it is going to be keeping to the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence
:19:06. > :19:08.spending, something France is not doing even though it has
:19:09. > :19:13.considerable defence expenditure. The leaked letter from one of the
:19:14. > :19:18.most senior police officers to the Home Secretary says cuts to police
:19:19. > :19:21.budgets could reduce very significantly the ability to respond
:19:22. > :19:27.to a Paris style attack. The Chancellor is going to be under
:19:28. > :19:30.pressure to make security more important than deficit-reduction.
:19:31. > :19:36.Certainly for the foreseeable future. Security is essential. It is
:19:37. > :19:40.vital. But I think the police are complaining a little bit too much.
:19:41. > :19:48.Look how much the police are spending now on chasing up often
:19:49. > :19:52.unsubstantiated accusations of historic sex abuse. That has got
:19:53. > :19:55.nothing to do with security. Those resources should be put where they
:19:56. > :20:01.need is. I think also what the police need is not just money, and
:20:02. > :20:04.the security services to, they need intelligence. I think it would make
:20:05. > :20:08.a lot of sense and what I would like to see the government doing is to
:20:09. > :20:17.expedite the passage of the investigatory Powers Bill which is
:20:18. > :20:23.long overdue and badly needed. In this climate you accept that cutting
:20:24. > :20:27.the top rate of income tax back to the 40% that you originally
:20:28. > :20:31.introduced, that that is politically impossible for the foreseeable
:20:32. > :20:37.future? It depends how far you can proceed. I would hope that during
:20:38. > :20:41.this parliament it can be done. It is politically difficult but there
:20:42. > :20:46.is no budgetary reason against it. When I cut it it increased revenue
:20:47. > :20:50.and it would do so again. The cap which George Osborne has already
:20:51. > :20:55.done in the last parliament from 50, 245 even though the Liberal
:20:56. > :21:02.Democrats he did it and it raised money and didn't cost anything. To
:21:03. > :21:06.be cutting police numbers, to be struggling to find money for the
:21:07. > :21:11.NHS, to be doing something for the working poor on tax credits, making
:21:12. > :21:16.life a bit more difficult for them but then to be cutting the top rate
:21:17. > :21:21.of the highest earners? That is why I don't think you can be doing it
:21:22. > :21:24.now that you were asking about the foreseeable future. You still think
:21:25. > :21:31.he can do it before the end of this Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how
:21:32. > :21:38.confident are you feeling about winning the referendum to withdraw?
:21:39. > :21:41.Nobody can call a referendum. It is difficult enough sometimes to call a
:21:42. > :21:47.general election and referendums are even harder to call. Logically I
:21:48. > :21:54.don't think he will do it. Logically David Cameron ought to be
:21:55. > :21:57.campaigning to leave because what he said at the beginning was he was
:21:58. > :22:04.dissatisfied with the European Union as it is. He wanted a fundamental
:22:05. > :22:11.reform to be enshrined in treaty change. Then stay in a reformed
:22:12. > :22:15.European Union. There is not going to be a reformed European Union.
:22:16. > :22:20.There will not be a treaty change. What the referendum is going to be
:22:21. > :22:24.about is if you want to stay in or leave and an reform European Union.
:22:25. > :22:28.So logically he ought to say leave and that is where I am because if it
:22:29. > :22:33.is an reform we don't want to stay in it. So even if the primer Mr was
:22:34. > :22:48.to get all his renegotiation demands such as we know them it would not
:22:49. > :22:51.change your mind on coming out? No, if he demanded a lot more and got
:22:52. > :22:54.it, major reforms which I have written about but I don't have time
:22:55. > :23:02.to go into no, I think it would be welcomed right across the European
:23:03. > :23:04.Union. This is not the view of the majority of the people, but we
:23:05. > :23:09.cannot tell the rest of the countries what to do, all we can say
:23:10. > :23:13.is what we are going to do. As we get closer to the referendum date,
:23:14. > :23:18.we don't know when it will be but when we get closer to it being
:23:19. > :23:22.announced, in terms of who seem to be the major figure who leads your
:23:23. > :23:33.side of the referendum campaign, if not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not
:23:34. > :23:39.Nigel Farage. I think the people who want to stay in have put up a
:23:40. > :23:46.businessman. Stewart draws. Not a particularly captivating
:23:47. > :23:50.businessman. Who will be the equivalent? I have no idea, but we
:23:51. > :23:57.will wait and see but it certainly won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an
:23:58. > :24:03.important player. Why not? Because Ukip has just one member of
:24:04. > :24:06.Parliament. We are a parliamentary democracy and the majority party is
:24:07. > :24:09.the Conservative Party. Nigel Lawson, thank you for being with us.
:24:10. > :24:12.Thank you. It's been a pretty torrid week
:24:13. > :24:14.for the Labour Party. Splits on everything
:24:15. > :24:17.from how to deal with terrorists to Trident, to Ken Livingstone,
:24:18. > :24:19.culminating in a bizarre row about whether or not the Shadow
:24:20. > :24:22.Chancellor wants to scrap MI5. John McDonnell insists Britain's
:24:23. > :24:24.spies are safe in his hands, though he did admit that
:24:25. > :24:27.his party has had a "rough week". It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn
:24:28. > :24:34.and his party grappled with issues In the wake of the Paris attacks,
:24:35. > :24:40.the Labour leader said he was not happy with the idea
:24:41. > :24:43.of police officers shooting to kill on British streets, which led to
:24:44. > :24:46.a very stormy party meeting, So, you tweeted, "please tell me it
:24:47. > :24:56.is not true that Jeremy just said, faced with Kalashnikov-wielding
:24:57. > :24:58.genocidal fascists, our security I,
:24:59. > :25:06.along with millions of Labour voters in this country, were very concerned
:25:07. > :25:09.by the interview that Jeremy gave. Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow
:25:10. > :25:14.Foreign Secretary, clarified matters very quickly and restated support
:25:15. > :25:17.for the use of lethal force and, support of the use of drone strikes,
:25:18. > :25:22.which Jeremy had also questioned. Jeremy himself, thankfully,
:25:23. > :25:25.a few hours later, also issued a clarification,
:25:26. > :25:27.and I'm very pleased he did. A lot of Labour voters will
:25:28. > :25:31.have been very relieved. Then came a row about the former
:25:32. > :25:38.Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, being appointed to co-chair
:25:39. > :25:41.the party's review of Trident, and the emergence of a letter from a
:25:42. > :25:44.campaign group calling for MI5 to be disbanded that the Shadow
:25:45. > :25:46.Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems And we found something else
:25:47. > :25:50.interesting that John This Parliamentary motion he
:25:51. > :25:57.proposed last October saying taxpayers who do not
:25:58. > :26:00.like war should be able to opt out The military is where
:26:01. > :26:05.the next battle may lie. If and
:26:06. > :26:10.when the Government brings forward plans to extend British air strikes
:26:11. > :26:14.from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs want to vote in favour, while
:26:15. > :26:16.their leader is a committed One Labour figure is speaking out
:26:17. > :26:23.for the first time. I think it would be wrong to suggest
:26:24. > :26:26.there is a settled view on the People will bring
:26:27. > :26:30.their own prejudices, which are from being instinctively
:26:31. > :26:33.for intervention, to having long The only thing I would ask of all
:26:34. > :26:39.of my colleagues is we look at this with an open mind,
:26:40. > :26:45.examining the facts rather than seeing how it matches our
:26:46. > :26:53.prejudices, and then reach a decision which is in the national
:26:54. > :26:54.interest. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn
:26:55. > :26:57.is able to do that? He has some very strongly held views
:26:58. > :27:00.that we should not get involved He may have to come to
:27:01. > :27:05.a point where he says, now that I'm not just a backbencher,
:27:06. > :27:08.I am actually the Leader of There is an element
:27:09. > :27:12.of national interest and that is For the young Corbynites at this
:27:13. > :27:16.event about Labour's economic policy The only reason we look bad to
:27:17. > :27:23.the general public, the only reason we do not look very strong at the
:27:24. > :27:28.moment, is that we are not united. If you have criticisms with
:27:29. > :27:30.the Leader, you should take it up It is not fitting to do these things
:27:31. > :27:35.in the press, criticising people. Do you think there is a plot
:27:36. > :27:38.against Jeremy Corbyn? If they are planning
:27:39. > :27:46.a plot they should probably think about the fact Jeremy was elected
:27:47. > :27:49.with 59.5% of the vote, I think. And we saw, from the beginning,
:27:50. > :27:56.he went from the least likely person to get
:27:57. > :27:59.in to the front runner, to the If people are plotting to get rid
:28:00. > :28:03.of him, they really should listen The party should be based
:28:04. > :28:07.around what the party members want. Unfortunately for them there will be
:28:08. > :28:09.another flash point On Tuesday there will be a vote
:28:10. > :28:14.in the House of Commons on Trident, Labour MPs have been
:28:15. > :28:19.instructed not to turn up. We understand a bunch of them,
:28:20. > :28:22.including some big names, are thinking about defying
:28:23. > :28:24.their Leader and voting It would be a largely symbolic vote
:28:25. > :28:31.but another visible symbol of I'm joined now from Doncaster
:28:32. > :28:40.by the Labour MP Caroline Flint - she was a minister under Tony Blair
:28:41. > :28:51.and Gordon Brown. Good morning, thank you for coming
:28:52. > :28:55.back on the programme. Let me begin with a general question, it's been a
:28:56. > :29:00.pretty terrible week for Labour, what is the mood now on the Labour
:29:01. > :29:05.backbenches among your colleagues? It's not been a great week for
:29:06. > :29:09.Labour, that is correct. I think part of the reason for that is we
:29:10. > :29:14.haven't looked certain and confident on some of the big issues the nation
:29:15. > :29:18.are worried about. What we have to have from the leadership, not just
:29:19. > :29:25.Jeremy but those around him, is certainty about what we think about
:29:26. > :29:30.what is happening in terms of the terrorist acts in Paris. But more
:29:31. > :29:34.widely about what the certainty we can offer as Labour Party about how
:29:35. > :29:39.we will support our national security. I think understandably
:29:40. > :29:43.there have been concerns, I don't think just on the backbenches of the
:29:44. > :29:47.Labour Party, but also amongst the Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but
:29:48. > :29:52.also more widely amongst the party membership as well. The news has
:29:53. > :29:58.been dominated for a week now by these terrible events in Paris. Has
:29:59. > :30:05.Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour response to these events? I think
:30:06. > :30:12.what is really important is that with leadership does come a massive
:30:13. > :30:17.responsibility to speak clearly and with certainty about a whole number
:30:18. > :30:20.of issues. But probably more than any other subject area if you like
:30:21. > :30:25.national security demands that. Because at a time where we are all
:30:26. > :30:29.reeling from what has happened in Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy
:30:30. > :30:31.Corbyn takes very, very seriously what has happened there and its
:30:32. > :30:38.implication for the security of British people as well and others
:30:39. > :30:42.around the world. The question of allowing our pleas through the legal
:30:43. > :30:45.framework which already exists to take action when they are presented
:30:46. > :30:48.with a terrorist in front of them but also on some of the other
:30:49. > :30:53.matters about how we should move forward in a united way with other
:30:54. > :30:57.countries to tackle Isil, I think that certainty has been wanting and
:30:58. > :31:01.not helped, I have to say, when other members of the Shadow Cabinet
:31:02. > :31:08.cannot speak with one voice about what the leader wants to do. I hope
:31:09. > :31:12.out of this week we will see some clarity and certainty coming forward
:31:13. > :31:16.and I think we already know, and I have heard more this morning, that
:31:17. > :31:21.David Cameron will come back to the House of Commons this week. We do
:31:22. > :31:25.need a plan, it can't just be about military action, it has to be more
:31:26. > :31:28.than that and I hope we can be in a position to opportunity going
:31:29. > :31:31.forward to tackle the threat of Isil which is the most major threat to
:31:32. > :31:36.security around the world that we have at the moment.
:31:37. > :31:45.If Mr Cameron comes form with that dashes forward with that kind of
:31:46. > :31:49.plan, would you back military action in Syria? I believe there can be a
:31:50. > :31:56.case former literary action in Syria. We are facing the most
:31:57. > :32:00.profoundly barbaric group of terrorists I think I have ever
:32:01. > :32:06.realised in my lifetime or thought about. -- military action. Also the
:32:07. > :32:12.most resourced group of terrorists in the world. It is a different
:32:13. > :32:15.situation to what we faced a few years ago where I voted against
:32:16. > :32:22.military action when Cameron came back to Parliament to deal with
:32:23. > :32:28.Assad. We have in this country and this region, a number of dangerous
:32:29. > :32:34.groups. There are a number of -- there is a hierarchy of dangerous
:32:35. > :32:42.groups and Isil is the top of that list. If it can be about, yes, what
:32:43. > :32:49.sort of military action should take place, maybe the air strikes... Like
:32:50. > :32:52.we are doing in Iraq, within that a wider plan as to how we will deal
:32:53. > :32:58.with civil war in Syria and what else we need to do going forward.
:32:59. > :33:02.That is something I feel I could support. You say there is no doubt
:33:03. > :33:06.that the Labour leadership takes these matters seriously. Can I point
:33:07. > :33:14.out, just before the election this year, the Shadow Chancellor penned
:33:15. > :33:19.his name to a document supporting the abolition of MI5 and disarming
:33:20. > :33:23.the police? Last year he supported people opting out of having their
:33:24. > :33:29.taxes fund any kind of military activity. I do not think... I
:33:30. > :33:33.suspect a lot of people will not think that is taking these issues
:33:34. > :33:39.very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit to hold the second most important
:33:40. > :33:43.position within the Shadow Cabinet? One of the aspects of the leadership
:33:44. > :33:50.campaign over the summer was a sense that Jeremy was authentic and very
:33:51. > :33:54.clear about his views. And, you know, they may not be shared with
:33:55. > :34:00.everybody, I may have some different views to Jeremy on that. Part of his
:34:01. > :34:07.appeal was the authenticity, that it did not have any spin. He said he
:34:08. > :34:12.did not realise what he do when he held that the letter and seemed to
:34:13. > :34:17.support it. We had a leadership election. There was a massive surge
:34:18. > :34:23.in our membership and Jeremy had an overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you
:34:24. > :34:27.know, Jeremy and John McDonnell, have earned the right within that to
:34:28. > :34:32.put forward their views. What is clear to me, I am a moderate
:34:33. > :34:35.politician, but I am also a conviction politician. I do not say
:34:36. > :34:39.one thing to one group of people and another to another group of people.
:34:40. > :34:44.If the leadership believes in these things, they should say that and the
:34:45. > :34:49.biggest test is then to let the British people determine whether
:34:50. > :34:54.they agree with them or not. I think clarity, authenticity and honesty,
:34:55. > :34:59.they are all very important and that is how you create trust. The last
:35:00. > :35:04.election, at the end, it was clear your party had a problem over the
:35:05. > :35:08.issue of economic security. When Mr Corbyn has said about not shooting
:35:09. > :35:15.terrorists and his reservations about killing jihadi John, is not a
:35:16. > :35:20.danger, as some polls suggest this morning, though it is not a danger,
:35:21. > :35:26.as some polls suggest this morning, voters are national security and not
:35:27. > :35:30.just economic security? When it comes to leadership, as you know,
:35:31. > :35:34.you may have your own view is that you had before but you have to be
:35:35. > :35:38.open to actually other views as well. That is why we're having this
:35:39. > :35:45.debate within the Parliamentary Labour Party as to how we get a
:35:46. > :35:50.position regarding what we do next in Syria. Jeremy has an overwhelming
:35:51. > :35:54.mandate. With that comes a responsibility leadership which
:35:55. > :35:57.shows the ideas he puts forward and answers to these really difficult
:35:58. > :36:01.questions, whether on the economy national security, can also reach
:36:02. > :36:09.out beyond the Parliamentary Labour Party and to that matter the Labour
:36:10. > :36:14.Party. Part of that is winning People's trust to back you. That is
:36:15. > :36:18.the task, not just the Jeremy but any leader of the leather party. He
:36:19. > :36:24.needs to show he can do that. I think he wants to do that. -- the
:36:25. > :36:27.Labour Party. They have said this morning they will have a full
:36:28. > :36:31.discussion in the Shadow Cabinet and there will be discussions within the
:36:32. > :36:35.Parliamentary Labour Party as well. Leadership does require a wider
:36:36. > :36:41.reach and responsibility beyond boundaries. Are you surprised that
:36:42. > :36:48.in so many personal appointments, John McDonnell, Ken Livingstone now
:36:49. > :36:52.on defence, Mr Corbyn seems to have made no effort to reach out to the
:36:53. > :36:59.centre of your party, much less the right of it? Well, all party
:37:00. > :37:03.leaders, I have to say, and I have seen a few, do tend to sometimes
:37:04. > :37:08.surround themselves not only with elected politicians but the paid
:37:09. > :37:13.staff who are part of their group. For any party leader, whoever they
:37:14. > :37:18.point, they have to show they will work in a way that is not just
:37:19. > :37:22.fashioned by their own particular background and experience and maybe
:37:23. > :37:26.their own point of view. There is a wider responsibility here. The
:37:27. > :37:32.Labour Party is not a pressure group. We exist to win elections in
:37:33. > :37:36.order to put our platform into practice in government. Therefore,
:37:37. > :37:41.the people around Jeremy, who have been appointed, they have to
:37:42. > :37:43.demonstrate they understand the responsibilities of that,
:37:44. > :37:47.responsibilities to the wider Labour Party. Some people within it he may
:37:48. > :37:52.not agree with him on everything but at heart we all want to win the next
:37:53. > :37:58.election. Importantly, 400,000 people took part in the leadership
:37:59. > :38:08.election. That is amazing. We have had a ground swell of people join
:38:09. > :38:11.the party and many of them want to be active in a very positive way. I
:38:12. > :38:14.welcome mat. We have to convince millions of people to support us in
:38:15. > :38:20.the next election and in all the elections up to 2020. Final question
:38:21. > :38:25.to you, if Mr Corbyn continues the way he has begun, will he be leading
:38:26. > :38:33.your party into the 2020 election? Does he have any chance of winning?
:38:34. > :38:37.Look, we have had, seven, eight, nine weeks since the leadership
:38:38. > :38:41.election. It has been rocky along the way. We have made significant
:38:42. > :38:47.impact when it came to the debate around tax credits for working
:38:48. > :38:52.people. Will he lead your party into the next election? What Jeremy has
:38:53. > :38:57.to do now is focused on how he leads our party right now. That will
:38:58. > :39:00.determine our fortunes in the weeks, months and also in 2020. Thank you
:39:01. > :39:03.for joining us. We say goodbye to viewers
:39:04. > :39:08.in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:39:09. > :39:25.in Northern Ireland. A final speech to
:39:26. > :39:40.the party faithful - Peter Robinson I think the outpouring of emotion
:39:41. > :39:45.shows how much he is loved within this party and how much people
:39:46. > :39:47.rightly regard him as not just a politician but a statesman.
:39:48. > :39:51.And it was titled A Fresh Start - but with victims' groups up in arms
:39:52. > :39:54.about being excluded, some have branded it more of a false start.
:39:55. > :39:57.We'll hear the thoughts of my guests - the News Letter's Political
:39:58. > :40:02.Correspondent, Sam McBride, and Allison Morris from The Irish News.
:40:03. > :40:07.Peter Robinson has given his final conference leader's speech to
:40:08. > :40:10.the party which he said he has lived in since the day of its birth.
:40:11. > :40:13.The outgoing First Minister said his work is almost done,
:40:14. > :40:15.and it's time for a new generation to step forward.
:40:16. > :40:18.I've been speaking to Mr Robinson - and we'll hear his thoughts on this
:40:19. > :40:22.latest deal, the shortcomings of the Ulster Unionists and why compromise
:40:23. > :40:25.But first, our Political Correspondent,
:40:26. > :40:33.Chris Page, was at the conference at the La Mon Hotel in County Down.
:40:34. > :40:42.It's the last time he'll do this. Peter Robinson helped to found the
:40:43. > :40:48.DUP and says he remembers hoovering down party lanes to get to meetings.
:40:49. > :40:54.Now he is moving his way through a crowd of his admirers. If First
:40:55. > :40:59.Minister is preparing for a new stage in life. In a few weeks' time
:41:00. > :41:04.I will step out of the limelight. The pattern of leadership will pass
:41:05. > :41:09.to others. This transition doesn't need to mark an end, only a new
:41:10. > :41:13.beginning. You may see it that way need to mark an end, only a new
:41:14. > :41:28.their emotions about their departure. I did it give you a
:41:29. > :41:33.bless you all. This is a formidable farewell for Peter Robinson. The DUP
:41:34. > :41:37.is paying a tremendous tribute to the man who masterminded its move
:41:38. > :41:42.from being a party of protest for a party of power. I will never be able
:41:43. > :41:47.to properly thank Peter after all he has done for the country but we
:41:48. > :41:53.tried today and I think the outpouring of emotion shows how much
:41:54. > :41:59.he is loved within the party. I know more than most over the last 12
:42:00. > :42:05.months what it is to have a leader like Peter Robinson. He has
:42:06. > :42:09.supported me. He was there. He was incisive in his decision. So the
:42:10. > :42:12.party focus now is on who will take over. The next head of the Stormont
:42:13. > :42:18.executive will have lots of chances. This model is designed to
:42:19. > :42:21.highlight one, waiting times for hospital I appointments but the DUP
:42:22. > :42:26.say they are on the right road. We are on the motorway. He has set us
:42:27. > :42:30.on a course which we collectively have embraced. People want to see us
:42:31. > :42:36.progressing and moving along that motorway at a greater speed. I would
:42:37. > :42:41.happily said any of our people, man for man, woman for women against
:42:42. > :42:47.other leadership challenges. I am very confident that the party is
:42:48. > :42:50.left to make the best decision. At a time of change, what
:42:51. > :42:50.left to make the best decision. At a politicians think of where it is
:42:51. > :42:55.going? It is attracting new and politicians think of where it is
:42:56. > :42:57.energetic young people into it but politicians think of where it is
:42:58. > :43:03.in terms of Northern Ireland moving forward, there is so much more to be
:43:04. > :43:05.achieved in investment, trying to attract jobs. I think in terms of
:43:06. > :43:10.the package that the DUP attract jobs. I think in terms of
:43:11. > :43:12.other party offers it. I don't think the party needs to
:43:13. > :43:16.other party offers it. I don't think sense. I think they are
:43:17. > :43:18.other party offers it. I don't think sound policies. I actually think
:43:19. > :43:22.they are party that everybody in Northern Ireland should get behind.
:43:23. > :43:26.How many will do that will become clear in the Stormont elections next
:43:27. > :43:29.year. The party has used this conference to prepare for that. It
:43:30. > :43:32.has merely been about giving Peter Robinson eight Sterling sendoff.
:43:33. > :43:34.Chris Page among the party faithful in County Down.
:43:35. > :43:37.Well I spoke to Mr Robinson just moments after he'd made that
:43:38. > :43:39.farewell speech, and I began by asking him about his verbal
:43:40. > :43:53.I think our position -- their position has been disgraceful, to
:43:54. > :43:57.come out of the executive simply because of electoral convenience. I
:43:58. > :44:02.think it says little for the party and then to try and scheme away so
:44:03. > :44:08.they can get back in, I think it was reprehensible. They weren't prepared
:44:09. > :44:11.to roll up their sleeves and get an agreement, prepared to allow us to
:44:12. > :44:15.take all the hard decisions so they could jump up on them afterwards. I
:44:16. > :44:19.think they deserved a site were too and I think the people of Northern
:44:20. > :44:24.Ireland will not think kindly on those who were preparing to move
:44:25. > :44:31.Northern Ireland forward... It is bizarre. We can all stand on our own
:44:32. > :44:35.party platforms and all give the rhetoric which suits our own party
:44:36. > :44:38.supporters but the true test of leadership is whether we are
:44:39. > :44:43.prepared to sit down and reach accommodation with others. The UUP
:44:44. > :44:48.were not prepared to do that. I wondered if you would be able to
:44:49. > :44:53.reach any future accommodation with the Ulster Unionist Party. It was
:44:54. > :44:58.bizarre to hear a DUP leader in a conference speech talking about
:44:59. > :45:00.electoral convenience, short termism and short-sightedness. Nothing like
:45:01. > :45:07.that on the other side against republicans. I think everybody knows
:45:08. > :45:11.the position I adopt in relation to republicans but at least republicans
:45:12. > :45:15.were prepared to sit down and negotiate and prepared to reach
:45:16. > :45:19.agreement and to copyrights. I think that shows a greater level of
:45:20. > :45:22.political maturity and I hope that the Ulster Unionist Party won't
:45:23. > :45:27.allow themselves to be led along a path that takes them into oblivion
:45:28. > :45:31.and put them to the sidelines of Ulster politics. They should be in
:45:32. > :45:35.the centre of politics, not the sidelines. Let's talk about the end
:45:36. > :45:39.of your political leadership. Your predecessor Ian Piercy felt he was
:45:40. > :45:45.pushed out at the of his career -- Paisley. He was very public about
:45:46. > :45:50.that. You're saying your decision to go was your choice but you must have
:45:51. > :45:54.known that if he didn't go, you would be pushed? Well, that isn't
:45:55. > :45:59.the case. Indeed, all of the urging was for me to stay. Indeed, part of
:46:00. > :46:02.the reason for my public announcement was to put it beyond
:46:03. > :46:07.the stage where it could be returned. I have had massive support
:46:08. > :46:11.within the party and I am very grateful to all of my colleagues.
:46:12. > :46:15.There is no sense of being pushed whatsoever. Of course, every
:46:16. > :46:19.political party has a range of political views within it. There are
:46:20. > :46:23.people, but her personality and other reasons, will have a different
:46:24. > :46:29.view than I have. However, I am happy to say, they are in very small
:46:30. > :46:33.numbers and are not exactly in the most influential end of the party.
:46:34. > :46:35.Would it surprise you to hear that I have spoken to several senior
:46:36. > :46:39.members of the party on this very subject in recent weeks and one of
:46:40. > :46:43.them would talk to me about the need for you to go, was standing on the
:46:44. > :46:48.platform and having you at the end of that speech? It doesn't surprise
:46:49. > :46:54.me. You and I both know who it is. That is why I say that it is a
:46:55. > :46:58.small, very small group within the party and happily one that didn't
:46:59. > :46:59.have a lot of influence. You have been seen by many throughout your
:47:00. > :47:05.career been seen by many throughout your
:47:06. > :47:09.strategist. And he filled recently though that may be your becoming a
:47:10. > :47:12.bit of a potential electoral liability, as your golden touch
:47:13. > :47:17.seemed to desert you? I am thinking here about having to answer
:47:18. > :47:21.questions about the Nama sale of the Northern Ireland known bug. You have
:47:22. > :47:28.very publicly denied this. Also the end held ministerial strategy which
:47:29. > :47:32.was very popular with the party and the sudden elevation of Emma
:47:33. > :47:36.Pengelly didn't play well in certain quarters. First of all, as far as
:47:37. > :47:40.Nama is concerned, you can hardly suggest that that is some loss of
:47:41. > :47:46.touch. Because somebody decides to smear doesn't mean that I have lost
:47:47. > :47:50.any touch. The time I think all deal fully and effectively with this
:47:51. > :47:55.issue. As far as the in alp policy, as these were decisions of the party
:47:56. > :47:58.officers. It was the tactical and right thing to do in these
:47:59. > :48:03.circumstances to avoid the collapse of the Assembly, and as far as Emma
:48:04. > :48:07.is concerned, as I look across the Assembly group, and I have to take
:48:08. > :48:11.my decisions in choosing a minister, on the basis of what is the merit of
:48:12. > :48:18.that individual, there is nobody in the Assembly in any political party
:48:19. > :48:22.who knows the functions of OFM DFM better than Emma does and no wonder
:48:23. > :48:26.would be more capable of doing the job. As you will be a first class
:48:27. > :48:30.representative for South Belfast. Are you going to adopt the same
:48:31. > :48:34.strategy in finding your replacement as an MLA for East Belfast, somebody
:48:35. > :48:39.from your inner circle, bright young thing? I do believe in the general
:48:40. > :48:51.principle of bringing talented young thing? I do believe in the general
:48:52. > :48:54.thing to do. It's just a didn't play particularly well in South Belfast.
:48:55. > :49:00.Other members of your party thought they had first dibs and were very
:49:01. > :49:04.disappointed and answer the question if I had asked you but if he had
:49:05. > :49:08.been in the position of the party officers and it was a party of the
:49:09. > :49:12.decision, not my decision, if he had been in that disposition to have
:49:13. > :49:16.traduced to get the most talented individual for South Belfast, who
:49:17. > :49:19.would you have chosen? Well, that wasn't my choice, you made your
:49:20. > :49:23.choice and you received some criticism for it and you may have
:49:24. > :49:28.lost a number of the party over it, it is your choice. I think if you
:49:29. > :49:32.are more up-to-date, you would know we have expelled that member. She
:49:33. > :49:37.has been given that information. As far as you're concerned, Ruth
:49:38. > :49:42.Patterson is no longer a member of the DUP? Party officers unanimously
:49:43. > :49:48.decided to expel her earlier this week. What I want to ask you is, who
:49:49. > :49:53.is the real Peter Robinson? You have been described as something of a
:49:54. > :49:55.chameleon. Is the real Peter Robinson the hard-line
:49:56. > :49:59.uncompromising unionist or is it the Progressive unionist Party who wants
:50:00. > :50:05.to do think differently, who we occasionally cod quotas of in the
:50:06. > :50:08.past two years? I am a determined unionist who wants to take Northern
:50:09. > :50:12.Ireland forward because that is the best way to safeguard the union.
:50:13. > :50:16.Everybody reacts in different circumstances depending on what they
:50:17. > :50:20.are having to be faced with. When there was a threat against Northern
:50:21. > :50:25.Ireland's position within the United Kingdom, when we were being bombed
:50:26. > :50:29.and shot in our homes, of course you saw a hard side of Peter Robinson,
:50:30. > :50:33.now we have the opportunity to really make progress in Northern
:50:34. > :50:34.Ireland and to take it forward so now you are seeing what you describe
:50:35. > :50:36.as the progressive Peter Robinson. Let's see what my guests make
:50:37. > :50:38.of that. Joining me are Allison Morris
:50:39. > :50:50.and Sam McBride. As he leads the stage, it is Peter
:50:51. > :50:54.Robinson working to be remembered as the one who moved from a party of
:50:55. > :50:57.protest to the party of Progressive unionist Party macro I think it is
:50:58. > :51:02.difficult to sum up Peter Robinson's time in terms of his time
:51:03. > :51:04.as First Minister. There is it watershed with the
:51:05. > :51:09.as First Minister. There is it After that point he was using set
:51:10. > :51:11.piece speeches such as yesterday to appeal to Catholic voters
:51:12. > :51:13.piece speeches such as yesterday to there was a benign apartheid
:51:14. > :51:19.segregated education, the language of moderate unionism, even alliance.
:51:20. > :51:24.Very quickly, after the fight of moderate unionism, even alliance.
:51:25. > :51:28.put on the back of moderate unionism, even alliance.
:51:29. > :51:33.then he has been very pragmatic. He has moved one direction, then the
:51:34. > :51:36.other. Very difficult to say what he stood for when he was leader. It is
:51:37. > :51:40.fascinating, Allison, isn't it? stood for when he was leader. It is
:51:41. > :51:43.lot of criticism of the Ulster Unionist Party but hardly a mention
:51:44. > :51:48.of Sinn Fein and compromised apparently the scene, it is no
:51:49. > :51:51.longer a dirty word. I think it was a fascinating interview. We know he
:51:52. > :51:52.announces departure this week but it was done in a very choreographed
:51:53. > :51:59.way. An was done in a very choreographed
:52:00. > :52:04.for the lamest -- Ulster Unionist was done in a very choreographed
:52:05. > :52:07.the crisis in the Assembly was supposed to be in relation to
:52:08. > :52:11.republican violence and the murder of Kevin McGuigan, that all seems to
:52:12. > :52:16.have been forgotten about and as he was leaving his speech, it was saved
:52:17. > :52:20.for fellow unionists. It is fascinating. I'm not surprised he
:52:21. > :52:23.has changed tack and tried to become the progressive Peter Robinson
:52:24. > :52:30.because he would want the legacy to be anything but that. -- wouldn't
:52:31. > :52:34.want. The events of the last year have been complete contradictions,
:52:35. > :52:39.he has tried to ride two horses. Some nationalists will not be
:52:40. > :52:44.persuaded? Not at all. Before 2012, there was a lot of talk about
:52:45. > :52:47.attracting Catholic voters. Once we saw the flight protest, we saw his
:52:48. > :52:51.lack of leadership and inability to push things forward to meet the
:52:52. > :52:58.difficult decisions. He buckled down to the lowest common to nominate and
:52:59. > :53:02.that would put any nationalist of. Sam, a final thought from you. They
:53:03. > :53:06.were very clear in that interview that his decision was his, but he
:53:07. > :53:10.had been writing about this for quite some time. That interpretation
:53:11. > :53:16.of the sequence of events is not what a lot of observers believe. It
:53:17. > :53:20.say understandably that he is very clear that interview. In some senses
:53:21. > :53:26.he is contradicting because on the one hand he says it was not back it
:53:27. > :53:30.was his decision to go. On the other hand, there was a senior DUP who
:53:31. > :53:33.wanted him to go, he openly admits that was the case. He seems to be
:53:34. > :53:40.trying to have it both ways. I spoke to six DUP members at very various
:53:41. > :53:43.members of the party, rank and file and senior figures. Three weeks ago
:53:44. > :53:46.they were saying either he goes by the end of the year or we have to
:53:47. > :53:49.move against him. That is unchallengeable because that is what
:53:50. > :53:52.those people were saying at that point. We will hear more from you at
:53:53. > :53:55.the moment. For now, thank you. Ukip also held
:53:56. > :53:57.its conference this weekend. At the gathering in Carrickfergus,
:53:58. > :53:59.members heard attacks on the European Union, immigration
:54:00. > :54:01.policy and the Stormont Executive. There was also confirmation
:54:02. > :54:03.of most of the candidates the party intends to run
:54:04. > :54:06.in next year's Assembly election. But so far, its leader here,
:54:07. > :54:09.David McNarry, isn't among them. Our Political Correspondent,
:54:10. > :54:19.Gareth Gordon, reports. Carrickfergus's Norman built castle
:54:20. > :54:23.is a reminder that invaders from Europe are nothing new. Perhaps
:54:24. > :54:29.fitting then that the town was chosen by Ukip for its conference in
:54:30. > :54:33.Northern Ireland. So far the party's mix of anti-EU sentiment and
:54:34. > :54:37.heavy scepticism about the Stormont performance has had mixed results.
:54:38. > :54:43.Pour in the last General Election but decent in the preceding European
:54:44. > :54:47.poll. 24,000 people voted for the party's then chair Henry Reilly
:54:48. > :54:51.except he has now gone to the TUV after being expelled. Still, that
:54:52. > :54:56.didn't seem to dampen the spirits of members who heard a familiar message
:54:57. > :54:59.from some of its three remaining councillors. We are a national
:55:00. > :55:04.unionist party. Not just with a future on the British mainland but
:55:05. > :55:09.also here in our six counties, we country. In the Assembly elections,
:55:10. > :55:13.Ukip will upset many unionist parties and will take many of
:55:14. > :55:19.voters. Let's continue to have a publicly funded NHS but the United
:55:20. > :55:24.Kingdom citizens. The party leader was critical of this week's deal to
:55:25. > :55:32.save the Stormont institutions and in particular, the DUP. We have
:55:33. > :55:39.returned to the days of no guns, no government, and Kenya who coined
:55:40. > :55:43.phrase? It was that pathetic party behind the no guns, no government,
:55:44. > :55:48.that has turned itself upside down. Mr McNarry says he is targeting six
:55:49. > :55:53.seats in next year 's's Assembly election but after naming a
:55:54. > :56:00.different candidate to himself in the Strangford constituency. Stephen
:56:01. > :56:06.Crosby, you better hold it. He is standing down. -- is he standing
:56:07. > :56:10.down? It's not entirely clear. There are four or five vacancies and they
:56:11. > :56:15.will be filled within the next few weeks and my name, like other names,
:56:16. > :56:19.it is in for those vacancies. So you will be standing? My name is in for
:56:20. > :56:23.those seats with those vacancies, of course. I am not quite sure, you
:56:24. > :56:28.could have announced your name today. I haven't been selected.
:56:29. > :56:33.Someone else has been selected. Somebody else has been selected.
:56:34. > :56:36.What is the first? Ukip is certainly not shy about topping up its
:56:37. > :56:41.electoral prospects in Northern Ireland but with uncertainty even
:56:42. > :56:43.over the future of its single MLA, it has got a lot of work to do if it
:56:44. > :56:44.is going to achieve them. Gareth Gordon reporting
:56:45. > :56:47.from Carrickfergus. Now, after ten weeks of negotiation,
:56:48. > :56:50.the Fresh Start agreement has been In it is a roadmap for dealing with
:56:51. > :56:54.paramilitarism and welfare changes, but there's continuing deadlock
:56:55. > :56:56.over legacy issues. The Victims Forum is demanding
:56:57. > :56:58.an apology and an urgent meeting with the
:56:59. > :57:10.Prime Minister and the Taoiseach. Allison, how big an issue do you
:57:11. > :57:14.think it is that victims are now being so vocal about their dissident
:57:15. > :57:18.satisfaction? I think it is huge. Five rounds of talks, unable to come
:57:19. > :57:21.up with a solution for the victims. They were given false hope from the
:57:22. > :57:25.Stormont House Agreement that there were a series of the mechanisms that
:57:26. > :57:30.would have dealt with it. That's why it fell apart and were unable to or
:57:31. > :57:33.the British government, they inserted a clause saying that some
:57:34. > :57:36.information would have to be redacted for security issues. It is
:57:37. > :57:40.now at a point that the victims issue has to be taken out of local
:57:41. > :57:43.hands. They'll have to bring some international who has experience of
:57:44. > :57:47.dealing with these things to bring a solution. It has been handed to the
:57:48. > :57:51.the Chief Constable and he should not be policing the past because it
:57:52. > :57:55.politicises his role. We will never have progress of policing if he is
:57:56. > :58:00.obviously still having to go back and have this piecemeal look at the
:58:01. > :58:07.past. Sam, do you feel that legacy could unravel beef Fresh Start deal,
:58:08. > :58:12.-- just as it brought down the Stormont House Agreement. I am not
:58:13. > :58:16.sure that... There are several issues, partly the issue of IRA
:58:17. > :58:19.decommissioning which was extraordinary by complete absence
:58:20. > :58:26.from the speech when you think about what David Trimble -- what they said
:58:27. > :58:29.about David Trimble. In terms of the legacy stuff, Peter Robinson
:58:30. > :58:32.proposed this week that the stuff that they could agree it should be
:58:33. > :58:36.published. I think that is probably quite sensible. At this point we are
:58:37. > :58:39.discussing at without knowing what was in there. The victims themselves
:58:40. > :58:45.would probably want to see that more than anyone. Allison, Thursday
:58:46. > :58:47.night, John O'Dowd admitted that mitigations for welfare benefit
:58:48. > :58:51.recipients are not as good in this deal as they were in the previous
:58:52. > :58:56.deal. There is a separate issue about tax credits but sticking with
:58:57. > :59:02.welfare, how does that square with Sinn Fein's commitment. Why did Sinn
:59:03. > :59:06.Fein is signed off this deal? It was obviously a 2-party deal to get us
:59:07. > :59:09.through the next election but you can see the finer detail, the
:59:10. > :59:16.Stormont has agreement was a better deal for current recipients. I think
:59:17. > :59:21.Sinn Fein activists have been noticeably quiet with this issue.
:59:22. > :59:23.Whether they were outflanked or outmanoeuvred, I don't know but when
:59:24. > :59:26.you break it down they have said there is extra money but it is
:59:27. > :59:31.actually tax credit money it is a worse deal by it if you something
:59:32. > :59:35.million for actual benefit claimants. The logic of this is that
:59:36. > :59:38.Sinn Fein is moving significantly away from it stands as an
:59:39. > :59:41.anti-austerity party. As the economy picks up in the south, they are
:59:42. > :59:43.trying to adopt a new tack here. Thank you.
:59:44. > :59:45.Let's just pause for a moment to take a look back
:59:46. > :59:52.at a very busy week in politics in Sixty Seconds - with Gareth Gordon.
:59:53. > :59:58.Christmas came early. A deal to save Stormont. I believe this is a good
:59:59. > :00:03.day for Northern Ireland and it marks a Fresh Start for Northern
:00:04. > :00:09.Ireland's institutions. To ensure that this new opportunity, this
:00:10. > :00:12.Fresh Start, is fully embraced. But what wasn't fully embraced was
:00:13. > :00:19.allowing Westminster to deal with welfare. How dare anybody reduce
:00:20. > :00:23.this chamber to a post box? One job done, it was time to shed another.
:00:24. > :00:30.Peter Robinson announced he was quitting. The further you get up
:00:31. > :00:40.that greasy pole, the more people are looking to you down. And in the
:00:41. > :00:46.midst of all this, MLAs remembered the dead of Paris. My daughter was
:00:47. > :00:51.down the street from the first restaurant attack and I want to
:00:52. > :00:54.thank those who give her and her group shelter.
:00:55. > :00:56.Hard to believe you could squeeze so much into just one week.
:00:57. > :01:02.Let's take a brief look ahead with Allison and Sam.
:01:03. > :01:10.Sam, the Prime Minister will set out a copper is of strategy on air
:01:11. > :01:13.against IS. -- comprehensive. The DUP is looking at that and
:01:14. > :01:18.indicating that it will vote with the Government. Gavin Robinson, and
:01:19. > :01:21.Nigel Dodds this morning, both indicated that the DUP has
:01:22. > :01:25.effectively dropped its past opposition to air strikes. It is not
:01:26. > :01:28.entirely convinced but sought to meet leaning towards supporting the
:01:29. > :01:33.Government if they have a credible plan. Allison. They are not entirely
:01:34. > :01:37.convinced but I'm pretty sure they will vote in favour of it. The
:01:38. > :01:40.landscape has changed after the Paris attacks but also we know the
:01:41. > :01:46.DUP did very well in the Fresh Start deal so it is payback time for the
:01:47. > :01:49.British government. Sam, a brief look ahead to Wednesday and they
:01:50. > :01:55.come preventing spending review and the Autumn Statement. On past form,
:01:56. > :02:00.George Osborne has talked of the four events and has delivered so
:02:01. > :02:05.perhaps it won't be as bad as people thinking. It is Stormont's major
:02:06. > :02:10.source of funding. I think it is not going to be as bad as previously
:02:11. > :02:14.thought. It is under pressure from his
:02:15. > :02:21.need to come up bicycles and onto -- people need to get on to bikes and
:02:22. > :02:24.of polluting cars. Can Jeremy Corbyn rein
:02:25. > :02:26.in his discontented MPs? Helen, let's start with the spending
:02:27. > :02:42.his spending cuts? Helen, let's start with the spending
:02:43. > :02:46.review. It is quite clear that deficit reduction is not getting any
:02:47. > :02:50.easier, even though the economy has been growing for some time. I
:02:51. > :02:54.thought it was interesting that even Nigel Lawson said the Chancellor may
:02:55. > :03:07.have to look if he wants to continue reducing the deficit, not just at
:03:08. > :03:11.spending cuts but tax rises. That is about having a surplus by 2020. It
:03:12. > :03:15.gives them very little room for manoeuvre. The big problem for the
:03:16. > :03:21.Tories in this Parliament, last parliament you had heavy cuts for
:03:22. > :03:24.councils which fell a lot on adult social care. A small number of
:03:25. > :03:29.people which hugely affected by that. The next round of cuts will
:03:30. > :03:35.mean a much larger group of people are affected. That is much harder to
:03:36. > :03:41.get past the public. It gets in a lot of money and a big revenue from
:03:42. > :03:48.the Government. Is that possible? There is logic to it, given to what
:03:49. > :03:52.has happened with oil prices. The logic is, low oil prices and the
:03:53. > :03:57.political logic will be, the gunmen will say, they have done enough on
:03:58. > :04:02.making fuel cheaper tax wise in recent years. They now have
:04:03. > :04:06.political room for manoeuvre on that issue. George Osborne is now boxed
:04:07. > :04:10.in, not just by the decision to aim for a surplus and the decision to
:04:11. > :04:14.aim for troubling pounds in welfare cuts, but also by the decision
:04:15. > :04:19.alluded to by Nigel Lawson to protect entire departments of
:04:20. > :04:28.spending, health service and foreign aid. Anything to do with people over
:04:29. > :04:32.65. That leaves you with one option, to go to departments which have
:04:33. > :04:36.already made absolutely swingeing cuts over the last two years and ask
:04:37. > :04:40.for more. There is a perverse incentive that when the Treasury
:04:41. > :04:44.knows that for example local government or business is able to
:04:45. > :04:49.make very deep cuts, as they have done, those departments are awarded
:04:50. > :04:54.by being asked more cuts. There is a perverse incentive almost to hold
:04:55. > :05:00.out. George Osborne has a thoroughly consistent record. He will duff up
:05:01. > :05:06.the Labour Party and then implement the fiscal deficit reduction plan.
:05:07. > :05:10.In the last parliament he halved the overall fiscal deficit. In this
:05:11. > :05:14.Parliament he went into the election saying, I will run a 10 million
:05:15. > :05:18.surplus two years before the general election. He has all it is a laid
:05:19. > :05:23.back by one year. He has announced today the 10 billion has pretty much
:05:24. > :05:28.gone. He may run a surplus but it may be ?10 rather than 10 billion!
:05:29. > :05:32.That will be much closer to the Ed Balls plan. As Helen was saying, he
:05:33. > :05:39.has got himself into this mess because he set a trap for Ed Balls.
:05:40. > :05:44.There is a danger of just public weariness. I think the Treasury is
:05:45. > :05:50.worried about this. The mood of the public. We are into our sixth year
:05:51. > :05:57.and there is still 80 million to go. The public in Greece just got fed
:05:58. > :06:04.up. In Portugal a few weeks ago, the Portuguese economy was recovering
:06:05. > :06:09.well but the public got fed up. In the election campaign we heard about
:06:10. > :06:14.the long-term economic plan. If you asked people what that was, there
:06:15. > :06:19.are a few new. Most people assume that things were on the upside. They
:06:20. > :06:25.did not realise the cuts in the second term would be deeper. The
:06:26. > :06:32.comprehensive spending review will be live on BBC Two. It will be a
:06:33. > :06:40.political event. Let's move on to the Labour Party. We have the vote
:06:41. > :06:45.on Trident. SNP are putting it down and it is meant to be a trap for
:06:46. > :06:54.Labour. The leader it is against it but the party is in favour of it
:06:55. > :07:00.credible to say, just abstain? I think they will get away with it. It
:07:01. > :07:03.was set at conference but it cannot come onto the conference floor for
:07:04. > :07:09.three years. The Labour leader is completely opposed to it. He has
:07:10. > :07:17.said there is no compromise on it. He has had to make a series of
:07:18. > :07:20.compromises. No matter what Mr Corbyn and John McDonnell wants,
:07:21. > :07:28.they cannot change it for another three years? What happened at the
:07:29. > :07:34.Labour conference is they attempted to have it debated but they failed.
:07:35. > :07:39.It is up to the National policy Forum. This review is being chaired
:07:40. > :07:43.by Maria Eagle and Ken Livingstone for that they are looking at it and
:07:44. > :07:47.it will go to the National policy Forum to decide. That is a way of
:07:48. > :07:52.overruling what the existing rules are full you have a strange
:07:53. > :07:55.situation where Jeremy Corbyn wants to promote grassroots
:07:56. > :08:00.decision-making on things he agrees with. Not so much in this case. The
:08:01. > :08:06.point Caroline Flint was making, you cannot keep having free vote on such
:08:07. > :08:10.massive issues as to whether this country should have nuclear
:08:11. > :08:14.deterrent and whether we should extend the battle against Islamic
:08:15. > :08:18.State to Syria. You cannot have a huge disparity between leader and
:08:19. > :08:23.Parliamentary party on existential issues. What it leads to is the
:08:24. > :08:27.leader having to use flirted, surreptitiously methods to get his
:08:28. > :08:31.own way and negotiate around party policy. The ultimate example this
:08:32. > :08:41.week with getting Ken Livingstone, the famous defence expert, to have
:08:42. > :08:48.the defence review. Briefly, because I want to move on. If you get 60% of
:08:49. > :08:51.the vote in the leadership election, it is that at the fair to put your
:08:52. > :08:56.views forward. They need to make a decision by the time there is a big
:08:57. > :09:00.vote on Trident next year. The difficulties they hear and now. And
:09:01. > :09:07.that is Syria. The here and now is having an effect. We had a policy
:09:08. > :09:13.morning. One of the questions was about national-security. -- a poll
:09:14. > :09:22.this morning. Who do you think would keep you and your family safe? 39%
:09:23. > :09:26.trusted David Cameron and only 17% voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The point I
:09:27. > :09:29.put to Caroline Flint, this is dangerous for Labour. They already
:09:30. > :09:35.have a problem with economic security. That is one reason they
:09:36. > :09:40.did not win. To not be trusted national-security as well, it means
:09:41. > :09:46.it is well nigh impossible to win an election. There was a seductive
:09:47. > :09:55.narrative about patria to them with Jeremy Corbyn not singing with Queen
:09:56. > :09:58.-- not seeing the Queen 's speech. I think particularly in the aftermath
:09:59. > :10:02.of Paris, what people were looking to see from leaders were looking to
:10:03. > :10:06.see from leaders in summary. That is a huge problem. The problem also
:10:07. > :10:14.comes with the fact these polls are very bad. At this stage, Ed Miliband
:10:15. > :10:17.was doing better and that was, even then, people were talking about
:10:18. > :10:22.whether it would bring him down. Debts have a look at the state of
:10:23. > :10:25.the parties with the poll. I'm told this is the biggest Tory lead over
:10:26. > :10:32.Labour since John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher, 15 points.
:10:33. > :10:37.There we have the Tories on 42 and Labour down to 27. The Labour vote
:10:38. > :10:43.came down a couple of points. Ukip are still doing pretty well, at
:10:44. > :10:49.15%. The Lib Dems are still flat-lining at 7%. The Scottish
:10:50. > :10:58.National 's get five. It means a lot more in Scotland. The Green party is
:10:59. > :11:04.down at 3% and going nowhere. At this stage of the process is it is
:11:05. > :11:09.not -- the process, it is not that important. Given all the problems we
:11:10. > :11:15.have had about tax credits and Tory difficulties, it is pretty
:11:16. > :11:20.disheartening. The last time the Labour Party scored 27% in a general
:11:21. > :11:24.election was under Baikal foot as leader. It has been a defining
:11:25. > :11:32.moment for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. -- under Michael Foot.
:11:33. > :11:35.You need to ensure the nation's finances are safe and
:11:36. > :11:39.national-security is safe. On the second one, is a nation secure in
:11:40. > :11:49.your hands? He appeared to be found wanting. You have a at a clown
:11:50. > :11:52.situation, what would you do? He equivocated and said, I would be an
:11:53. > :12:00.easy. -- a equivocated and said, I would be an
:12:01. > :12:05.finally set out the circumstances in which he would approve that type of
:12:06. > :12:08.response by which he would approve that type of
:12:09. > :12:14.The problem was his initial responses showed his instincts.
:12:15. > :12:19.Putting that in front of the British people, you will have a challenging
:12:20. > :12:22.time winning an election like that. The Parliamentary Labour Party has
:12:23. > :12:26.to be careful. They may not be in tune with the people in the country
:12:27. > :12:30.in the Labour Party who elected Mr Corbyn as leader. Although they are
:12:31. > :12:38.getting impatient, I would suggest they have to wait at least until May
:12:39. > :12:42.until the Scottish elections, the local government elections. They
:12:43. > :12:46.really cannot move before then, can they? They acknowledge he has a
:12:47. > :12:52.thumping great mandate from the election. A lot of those people have
:12:53. > :12:58.actually converted to being full party members. He still has a huge
:12:59. > :13:05.backing at grassroots level. The Mint is thriving and drawing in huge
:13:06. > :13:10.crowds of people. -- momentum is thriving. Even a later post was then
:13:11. > :13:16.they could come third in Scotland. They were saying Jeremy Corbyn is
:13:17. > :13:20.the 1 guy who could bring back the votes that were lost to SNP in
:13:21. > :13:27.recent years. By one warning to the Labour Party is, if you think 27% is
:13:28. > :13:35.low, wait until the public starts to focus on the next election? 27% is
:13:36. > :13:38.not the floor for Labour. We shall see. That is all for today.
:13:39. > :13:41.The Daily Politics will be back on BBC2 at noon tomorrow.
:13:42. > :13:46.And we'll be back again next weekend at the same time.
:13:47. > :13:50.We will be back to disentangle the spending review next Sunday at the
:13:51. > :13:53.same time. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:54. > :13:59.it's the Sunday Politics.