:00:36. > :00:42.There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next
:00:43. > :00:44.leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,
:00:45. > :00:51.This man might have something to say about that.
:00:52. > :00:54.Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.
:00:55. > :00:57.So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?
:00:58. > :01:02.The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane
:01:03. > :01:05.on the country's second city which has been in the hands of
:01:06. > :01:14.And coming up here: from this key clash?
:01:15. > :01:16.One party conference; two leaders' speeches.
:01:17. > :01:19.We reflect on yesterday's Ulster Unionist gathering
:01:20. > :01:21.which heard from Mike Nesbitt and the SDLP's Colum Eastwood.
:01:22. > :01:24.one of the richest cities in the world. Should all private landlords
:01:25. > :01:29.be licensed to help tackle the squalor?
:01:30. > :01:32.And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political
:01:33. > :01:35.panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -
:01:36. > :01:44.The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided
:01:45. > :01:50.The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous
:01:51. > :01:55.Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".
:01:56. > :02:02.This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,
:02:03. > :02:04.announced that she would be running for the leadership.
:02:05. > :02:10.I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,
:02:11. > :02:12.and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is
:02:13. > :02:15.because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support
:02:16. > :02:19.And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures
:02:20. > :02:22.on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.
:02:23. > :02:26.Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me
:02:27. > :02:31.I know head office was besieged with letters in support.
:02:32. > :02:35.I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing
:02:36. > :02:37.of our members, because our members are the most important
:02:38. > :02:46.Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years
:02:47. > :02:49.and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.
:02:50. > :02:57.Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.
:02:58. > :03:04.Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be
:03:05. > :03:09.the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only
:03:10. > :03:14.amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the
:03:15. > :03:18.MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip
:03:19. > :03:23.needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is
:03:24. > :03:34.looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four
:03:35. > :03:37.step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an
:03:38. > :03:40.ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at
:03:41. > :03:45.all. Students of political history know that political parties take a
:03:46. > :03:50.long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is
:03:51. > :03:55.facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us
:03:56. > :04:00.on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am
:04:01. > :04:04.the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the
:04:05. > :04:08.party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common
:04:09. > :04:13.challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the
:04:14. > :04:18.last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I
:04:19. > :04:23.have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time
:04:24. > :04:28.away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done
:04:29. > :04:32.and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be
:04:33. > :04:37.the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very
:04:38. > :04:41.experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step
:04:42. > :04:48.in and bring the party together. You told the Liverpool Echo on the night
:04:49. > :04:52.of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want
:04:53. > :05:01.that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party
:05:02. > :05:06.is facing an existential crisis, and I want to make sure that Ukip is on
:05:07. > :05:12.the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We
:05:13. > :05:19.have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to
:05:20. > :05:24.be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne
:05:25. > :05:28.would be an excellent candidate. I thought the 2015 manifesto was the
:05:29. > :05:31.best out of all the political parties. I would be the best
:05:32. > :05:38.candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within
:05:39. > :05:41.the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I
:05:42. > :05:48.could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain
:05:49. > :05:53.Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,
:05:54. > :05:58.I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the
:05:59. > :06:02.next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership
:06:03. > :06:08.election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the
:06:09. > :06:14.new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the
:06:15. > :06:19.referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar
:06:20. > :06:25.schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have
:06:26. > :06:28.Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of
:06:29. > :06:34.March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a
:06:35. > :06:39.strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a
:06:40. > :06:43.huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party
:06:44. > :06:48.no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working
:06:49. > :06:52.people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to
:06:53. > :06:57.Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the
:06:58. > :07:01.north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class
:07:02. > :07:04.communities right across the country is. There are working-class
:07:05. > :07:18.communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a
:07:19. > :07:21.number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I
:07:22. > :07:24.believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so
:07:25. > :07:27.if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.
:07:28. > :07:33.I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that
:07:34. > :07:41.called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to
:07:42. > :07:44.move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive
:07:45. > :07:50.Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and
:07:51. > :07:55.concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing
:07:56. > :08:00.my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the
:08:01. > :08:05.game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the
:08:06. > :08:09.candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you
:08:10. > :08:13.keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European
:08:14. > :08:16.Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we
:08:17. > :08:24.would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you
:08:25. > :08:28.think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win
:08:29. > :08:32.female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone
:08:33. > :08:38.out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't
:08:39. > :08:44.think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I
:08:45. > :08:46.wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think
:08:47. > :08:53.the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you
:08:54. > :08:58.win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first
:08:59. > :09:04.couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to
:09:05. > :09:09.factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of
:09:10. > :09:14.the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify,
:09:15. > :09:15.Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us
:09:16. > :09:18.this morning. We won't have to wait too long
:09:19. > :09:21.to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -
:09:22. > :09:30.the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for
:09:31. > :09:35.Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today
:09:36. > :09:42.is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or
:09:43. > :09:51.Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently
:09:52. > :09:57.Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip
:09:58. > :10:05.to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is
:10:06. > :10:12.a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst
:10:13. > :10:18.nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality
:10:19. > :10:22.difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne
:10:23. > :10:27.Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be
:10:28. > :10:33.taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the
:10:34. > :10:40.Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the
:10:41. > :10:51.Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things
:10:52. > :10:55.always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and
:10:56. > :11:03.Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.
:11:04. > :11:12.But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best
:11:13. > :11:15.secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We
:11:16. > :11:22.have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch
:11:23. > :11:26.there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash
:11:27. > :11:32.we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond
:11:33. > :11:34.May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United
:11:35. > :11:42.Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May
:11:43. > :11:47.2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to
:11:48. > :11:51.start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that
:11:52. > :11:54.leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall
:11:55. > :11:56.see. In June 2014, the group which calls
:11:57. > :11:59.itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's
:12:00. > :12:01.second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced
:12:02. > :12:04.it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,
:12:05. > :12:06.on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided
:12:07. > :12:15.by Iranian-backed Shia fighters, Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air
:12:16. > :12:20.support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb
:12:21. > :12:38.from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before
:12:39. > :12:43.it destroys them. These are the first steps
:12:44. > :12:45.in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has
:12:46. > :12:51.made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around
:12:52. > :12:55.2 million people means that they established governance,
:12:56. > :12:59.they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,
:13:00. > :13:02.because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more
:13:03. > :13:07.than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric
:13:08. > :13:12.of another society. It's being billed as the biggest
:13:13. > :13:15.military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest
:13:16. > :13:19.moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces
:13:20. > :13:25.are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south,
:13:26. > :13:29.the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,
:13:30. > :13:31.trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up
:13:32. > :13:38.of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,
:13:39. > :13:44.a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused
:13:45. > :13:47.of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying
:13:48. > :13:50.villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel
:13:51. > :13:57.on the ground. To the North West, a corridor
:13:58. > :14:00.has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,
:14:01. > :14:02.in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed
:14:03. > :14:06.when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle
:14:07. > :14:08.and it's taking place in the outlying villages
:14:09. > :14:10.and there have been some successes and some failures,
:14:11. > :14:14.but the momentum is building. And the real question will be
:14:15. > :14:16.when the attackers get towards the city itself,
:14:17. > :14:20.how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack
:14:21. > :14:28.within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,
:14:29. > :14:32.on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,
:14:33. > :14:34.including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds
:14:35. > :14:37.of thousands of families have been rounded up
:14:38. > :14:39.as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,
:14:40. > :14:44.but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,
:14:45. > :14:46.the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,
:14:47. > :14:49.they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not
:14:50. > :14:53.for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want
:14:54. > :14:56.to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni
:14:57. > :15:01.majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have
:15:02. > :15:05.helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis
:15:06. > :15:07.Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something
:15:08. > :15:11.from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames
:15:12. > :15:14.and was then carved up, it is because that is what is
:15:15. > :15:18.happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut
:15:19. > :15:22.across by other identities such And that means that putting together
:15:23. > :15:33.a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be
:15:34. > :15:38.a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq
:15:39. > :15:42.at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul
:15:43. > :15:45.is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant
:15:46. > :15:48.which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that
:15:49. > :15:51.come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing
:15:52. > :15:54.but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International
:15:55. > :16:03.Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was
:16:04. > :16:06.the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following
:16:07. > :16:21.the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at some
:16:22. > :16:31.stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first
:16:32. > :16:34.thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being
:16:35. > :16:38.the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident
:16:39. > :16:46.predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi
:16:47. > :16:52.forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I
:16:53. > :17:01.would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one
:17:02. > :17:05.STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.
:17:06. > :17:13.June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and
:17:14. > :17:17.they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million
:17:18. > :17:21.people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they
:17:22. > :17:25.have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of
:17:26. > :17:29.Mosul, and that is a fundamental blow. Islamic State is all about
:17:30. > :17:33.territory and holding state, that is what makes it different from
:17:34. > :17:41.Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that will be a cynic -- significant blow
:17:42. > :17:44.to their credibility. Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday's
:17:45. > :17:47.presidential debate that when Iraqi forces with their allies including
:17:48. > :17:53.the United Kingdom gain control of Mosul they should continue to press
:17:54. > :17:59.into Syria to take back Raqqa which is the de facto capital of the
:18:00. > :18:06.caliphate, what is left of it, do we want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into
:18:07. > :18:10.Syria? Very important question. Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from
:18:11. > :18:16.people on the Syrian side of the border and that is an important
:18:17. > :18:21.principle -- the lead. In the end of that enemy, Islamic State, is a
:18:22. > :18:28.common enemy for odd members of the coalition including the Iraqi
:18:29. > :18:32.government. -- all members. There is likely to be a humanitarian crisis
:18:33. > :18:35.especially if it ends up with street to street fighting and IS are
:18:36. > :18:41.difficult to dislodge what are we doing about that? We are doing very
:18:42. > :18:45.detailed scenario planning. It is very uncertain what the scenario
:18:46. > :18:54.will be but much investment has gone into creating a network of camps,
:18:55. > :19:02.refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps around cash refugee camps, and that
:19:03. > :19:05.is where money, British money, ?40 million has gone recently into
:19:06. > :19:13.supporting that, especially in terms of medical support to people. The
:19:14. > :19:16.United nation's emergency response budget is ?196 million but only one
:19:17. > :19:19.third funded which sounds like we are putting up a big chunk of what
:19:20. > :19:24.is already being funded. Why is that? The international committee
:19:25. > :19:29.can't say they haven't seen this assault coming, and the humanitarian
:19:30. > :19:34.fallout they may see from it. You are absolutely right. We have seen
:19:35. > :19:38.it coming and we have been planning since debris and we have put in
:19:39. > :19:43.about ?167 million into this -- planning since February. There has
:19:44. > :19:47.been a change in the nature of the appeal, and if there is a lag in the
:19:48. > :19:50.accounting of it, but the money we need at this stage is in place and
:19:51. > :19:55.we do have the support structure in place for those refugees. You are
:19:56. > :19:59.right the United Nations is continuing with its appeal and is
:20:00. > :20:02.asking for more money at the moment. The converse magazine wrote this
:20:03. > :20:06.week that preparations for a big exodus of people leaving the city
:20:07. > :20:12.have been made -- Economist magazine. But confidence is not high
:20:13. > :20:17.in the preparations, is that a unfair conclusion? If you can
:20:18. > :20:20.imagine the different scenarios, it could be a few thousand and it could
:20:21. > :20:23.be a few hundred thousand coming out of the city through a front line
:20:24. > :20:28.where the war is going on, that is very difficult. You have to screen
:20:29. > :20:32.those people and disarm them, and keep families together, and
:20:33. > :20:36.transport them and you have to bring them into the refugee camps. The
:20:37. > :20:39.people working on this have been working on this for long time, we
:20:40. > :20:46.have mapped the different routes we have good camp infrastructure in
:20:47. > :20:50.place and we have people who have worked in south to dam and other
:20:51. > :20:54.areas who are putting their structures in place -- South Sudan.
:20:55. > :20:57.It is never easy but I think we have done everything we can in the
:20:58. > :21:04.preparation for this. What is the British role in what will probably
:21:05. > :21:10.be an even bigger issue, assuming that Mosul is liberated and retaken,
:21:11. > :21:15.the humanitarian crisis is dealt with, what role will we play in the
:21:16. > :21:19.rebuilding of Mosul? That will be crucial to the future of Iraq, the
:21:20. > :21:25.second-biggest city and it will need to be rebuilt. It will need to be
:21:26. > :21:30.rebuilt as a community as well as bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni
:21:31. > :21:38.community that is not harassed by the Shia. -- and eight. You are
:21:39. > :21:40.right. One of the core drivers is that the Sunni community felt
:21:41. > :21:45.excluded and they did not feel they have the trust from the Baghdad
:21:46. > :21:52.government. A lasting solution is stopping some of Islamic State
:21:53. > :21:56.coming back, that involves making sure the Sunni community have a
:21:57. > :22:01.stake in their future. That is making sure that the governing
:22:02. > :22:06.structures are in place. The UK's response is twofold, we have got to
:22:07. > :22:09.get the humanitarian aid right, that is the short term, people who might
:22:10. > :22:14.be malnourished, coming out of the front line. The second thing is
:22:15. > :22:19.working with the Iraqi government to make sure that as we rebuild Mosul
:22:20. > :22:24.we do so in a way that that population feels a connection to the
:22:25. > :22:29.Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing territory everywhere in the Levant,
:22:30. > :22:35.it is almost finished in Iraq, we think. It is down to one district in
:22:36. > :22:41.Libya, as well, just one small part of the town. I suppose the risk is,
:22:42. > :22:46.if life is becoming more difficult across these areas, it can start to
:22:47. > :22:50.look more in Europe and the United Kingdom as a place to continue its
:22:51. > :22:56.terrorist attacks? That is a real danger. You are right. This is a
:22:57. > :23:00.group which has proved over the last five years very unpredictable and it
:23:01. > :23:06.changes for it quickly full stop often it does unexpected things. In
:23:07. > :23:11.2009 its predecessor had been largely wiped out in Iraq and when
:23:12. > :23:15.it was under pressure in Syria it went back into Iraq, and in the past
:23:16. > :23:19.it didn't hold territory but now it holds territory, so you are right.
:23:20. > :23:23.There is a serious risk that as it gets squeezed in the middle East it
:23:24. > :23:28.will try to pop up somewhere else and Mac could include Europe and the
:23:29. > :23:31.United States -- that could. They say that is something they have
:23:32. > :23:36.focused on full stop we also have a big focus on counterterrorism
:23:37. > :23:44.security and making sure that we keep the United Kingdom and Europe
:23:45. > :23:50.say. One final question. -- say. -- safe. Maybe events in Mosul could
:23:51. > :23:56.add to the migration crisis in Europe, is that a possibility?
:23:57. > :24:01.Again, you are right, we have seen in Syria it can push migration, the
:24:02. > :24:04.biggest push the migration was the conflict in Syria, and that's the
:24:05. > :24:09.reason why we have but so much energy into getting those refugee
:24:10. > :24:13.camps in place and getting the humanitarian response in place --
:24:14. > :24:16.put so much energy. People will want to remain in their homes, this is
:24:17. > :24:19.their country, but we have got to make it possible for them and that
:24:20. > :24:24.means in the short term looking after their shelter and in the
:24:25. > :24:28.medium to long-term making sure they have livelihoods, jobs and an
:24:29. > :24:32.economic development which is why our support in Iraq is in the UK
:24:33. > :24:39.National interests because it deals with these issues of migration and
:24:40. > :24:42.terrorists. Thanks for joining us. I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence
:24:43. > :24:59.Secretary. Does Labour support British
:25:00. > :25:03.participation in this offensive? We fully support the participation in
:25:04. > :25:09.this offensive, extremely important move forward and we voted for this
:25:10. > :25:12.back in 2014. We are asking the government question is, of course, I
:25:13. > :25:19.was asking the Secretary of State this week about this very offensive
:25:20. > :25:22.but we are fully behind our RAF pilots out there and be trading that
:25:23. > :25:28.has been going on to help the forces on the ground. -- the training full
:25:29. > :25:33.stop that is very clear. I wonder if you'll lead it shares that clarity
:25:34. > :25:36.and that position. -- is your leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn
:25:37. > :25:38.has said. What's been done in Iraq
:25:39. > :25:40.is done by the Iraqi government, and currently
:25:41. > :25:42.supported by the British government. I did not support it
:25:43. > :25:44.when it came up. Well, I'm not sure how successful
:25:45. > :25:48.it's been, because most of the action now appears to be
:25:49. > :26:00.moving in to Syria, so I think we He doesn't sound very supportive.
:26:01. > :26:02.The issue about Mosul, it has been very carefully prepared as Rory
:26:03. > :26:08.Stewart said and I hope we have learned the lessons from previous
:26:09. > :26:12.offensives where we haven't learnt sufficiently, and that is going to
:26:13. > :26:18.be crucial in this context. How the aftermath is going to be dealt with.
:26:19. > :26:23.Of course will stop that clip was from November last year, and things
:26:24. > :26:28.have changed. Two weeks ago he told the BBC" I'm not sure it is
:26:29. > :26:33.working", in reference to air strikes in Iraq, but it is working.
:26:34. > :26:36.We have got to see what happens in Mosul, it is a very high-risk
:26:37. > :26:40.operation, but we also have to face the fact that the people there are
:26:41. > :26:47.living under tyranny at the moment. We have to ask very cirrus question
:26:48. > :26:51.shall stop he says he's not sure it is working, when Mosul is the last
:26:52. > :26:56.major target be cleared of Islamic State in Iraq. The combination of
:26:57. > :27:00.Allied air power has worked, why is he not sure it is working? Because
:27:01. > :27:06.we have seen difficulties in the past. But this was two weeks ago. It
:27:07. > :27:09.is essential that the work is done, both planning for the refugees as
:27:10. > :27:12.Rory Stewart referred to, but also in terms of reconstruction of the
:27:13. > :27:19.city and its community as you mentioned. These are vital. This was
:27:20. > :27:23.about the ability to make progress with Allied air power, special
:27:24. > :27:28.forces in Iraq, on the ground, do you accept so far that has a
:27:29. > :27:40.strategy that seems to be working to read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq
:27:41. > :27:53.of Islamic State the question of the car began placement. Ulloa -- we
:27:54. > :27:56.can't be complacent. The problems they are creating where ever they
:27:57. > :28:01.are urged that we must continue to pursue them. This is the first time
:28:02. > :28:04.we have spoken to since you have become the Shadow Defence Secretary.
:28:05. > :28:10.I hope we will have a longer interview. Will Labour's next
:28:11. > :28:16.manifesto include a commitment to the renewal of Trident? It will. We
:28:17. > :28:20.made that commitment in 2007, that is a firm commitment and we will
:28:21. > :28:22.honour that to our coalition allies and our industrial partners and that
:28:23. > :28:26.is the vote which was taken democratically and repeatedly has
:28:27. > :28:32.been reaffirmed by Labour conference and we are a democratic party vote
:28:33. > :28:38.up you have squared that with Jeremy Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy
:28:39. > :28:42.and he understands the situation, but we also want to push for the UK
:28:43. > :28:47.to play a much bigger role on the international stage on multilateral
:28:48. > :28:52.disarmament talks. You were very clear there, I thank you for that.
:28:53. > :28:56.Support for Trident will be in the next Labour manifesto. What has
:28:57. > :29:02.happened to Labour's review of Trident policy? That review has been
:29:03. > :29:06.taking place over the year, we had a very clear reaffirmation in the
:29:07. > :29:10.conference boat this year, we are reaffirming our commitment to
:29:11. > :29:16.Trident -- vote. The review can't change that? There is a process of
:29:17. > :29:22.review and a fair number of issues related to defence, all parties do
:29:23. > :29:26.this. Of course. The review can't change the commitment to Trident? We
:29:27. > :29:32.are not changing the commitment to Trident. Russia is now the main
:29:33. > :29:35.strategic threat to this country? It is a major strategic threat and we
:29:36. > :29:38.have got to work with our Nato allies very closely and make sure
:29:39. > :29:43.that we respond and that we do not let things pass. For example, we
:29:44. > :29:48.should be calling out Russia for the way it has been a bombing
:29:49. > :29:51.humanitarian aid and we should be taking them to international court
:29:52. > :29:58.over this, but we should also be strengthening sanctions, somewhat
:29:59. > :30:03.imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let
:30:04. > :30:05.us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European
:30:06. > :30:11.initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain
:30:12. > :30:14.should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.
:30:15. > :30:20.Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle
:30:21. > :30:23.being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria
:30:24. > :30:26.has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's
:30:27. > :30:29.five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,
:30:30. > :30:32.in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English
:30:33. > :30:36.channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest
:30:37. > :30:39.surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought
:30:40. > :30:42.to be preparation for a final assault
:30:43. > :30:46.on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting
:30:47. > :30:50.resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -
:30:51. > :30:55.with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's
:30:56. > :30:58.rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been
:30:59. > :31:01.killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,
:31:02. > :31:05.backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned
:31:06. > :31:13.Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow
:31:14. > :31:15.of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support
:31:16. > :31:19.of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided
:31:20. > :31:23.on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied
:31:24. > :31:25.with domestic politics, President Putin senses this
:31:26. > :31:29.is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former
:31:30. > :31:37.Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master
:31:38. > :31:51.of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC
:31:52. > :31:57.studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to
:31:58. > :32:02.get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the
:32:03. > :32:07.commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New
:32:08. > :32:13.York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.
:32:14. > :32:17.Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in
:32:18. > :32:24.control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles
:32:25. > :32:28.wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it
:32:29. > :32:37.inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what
:32:38. > :32:43.President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce
:32:44. > :32:47.bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the
:32:48. > :32:53.Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when
:32:54. > :32:59.the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they
:33:00. > :33:03.went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking
:33:04. > :33:09.about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of
:33:10. > :33:10.the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The
:33:11. > :33:13.purpose of going being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The
:33:14. > :33:18.purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and
:33:19. > :33:23.then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more
:33:24. > :33:28.complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there
:33:29. > :33:32.was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so
:33:33. > :33:36.many different parties involved. We have seen the alarm in the west of
:33:37. > :33:46.the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been
:33:47. > :33:48.rumblings in the west of, shouldn't the United States do something?
:33:49. > :33:52.Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier
:33:53. > :33:57.steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,
:33:58. > :34:04.both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved
:34:05. > :34:10.in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the
:34:11. > :34:14.ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the
:34:15. > :34:21.aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the
:34:22. > :34:25.rebel controlled area does fall, it would be seen as a great victory for
:34:26. > :34:30.President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia
:34:31. > :34:35.here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan
:34:36. > :34:41.that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia
:34:42. > :34:45.went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.
:34:46. > :34:50.President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or
:34:51. > :34:55.its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the
:34:56. > :35:00.argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the
:35:01. > :35:08.only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue
:35:09. > :35:17.argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.
:35:18. > :35:21.They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence
:35:22. > :35:29.at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to
:35:30. > :35:35.push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided.
:35:36. > :35:40.Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.
:35:41. > :35:45.The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted
:35:46. > :35:50.by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there
:35:51. > :36:00.is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that
:36:01. > :36:05.part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to
:36:06. > :36:11.admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric
:36:12. > :36:16.from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are
:36:17. > :36:20.an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in
:36:21. > :36:26.the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging
:36:27. > :36:31.with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the
:36:32. > :36:36.place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in
:36:37. > :36:41.the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a
:36:42. > :36:46.country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is
:36:47. > :36:52.now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important
:36:53. > :36:56.message. Looking at the economy. It is in recession. GDP has been
:36:57. > :37:02.falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on
:37:03. > :37:07.hydrocarbons, and is expected to fall again. Its people are falling
:37:08. > :37:13.again. People don't realise how small the Russian economy is. Its
:37:14. > :37:18.GDP is about the size of Italy's. It is smaller than the UK economy.
:37:19. > :37:28.Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years ago. But so is Britain's does it
:37:29. > :37:33.help to take people's mind of this? A huge shock to the Russian economy
:37:34. > :37:37.was a drop in the price of oil and a price of gas. A drop in the price of
:37:38. > :37:44.the ruble as well. This is hurting the people of Russia. On the one
:37:45. > :37:49.hand, it is the war in Syria, which is very important for Russia to sort
:37:50. > :37:57.out that part of the world and dispensed terrorists who might be
:37:58. > :38:02.danger to -- is dangerous to Russia. But he had also has presidential
:38:03. > :38:06.election is going up. They are supposed to be 2018, but some feel
:38:07. > :38:11.he will bring them forward to 2017, because the economy is not doing so
:38:12. > :38:13.well. But you need a good story for the Russian people. Thank you very
:38:14. > :38:15.much. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:16. > :38:23.in Scotland who leave us now Hello, and welcome to
:38:24. > :38:32.Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland. This time last year Mike Nesbitt
:38:33. > :38:35.saw his party conference pumped up off the back of winning two seats
:38:36. > :38:48.at the general election. We hear from Mr Nesbitt about the
:38:49. > :38:50.challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the party.
:38:51. > :38:52.Our commentators, Professor Rick Wilford and Patricia MacBride,
:38:53. > :39:03.The Ulster Unionist and SDLP leaders say they won't be pushed around
:39:04. > :39:06.by the Executive parties as they seek to open up a new middle
:39:07. > :39:09.That was the message Mike Nesbitt and Colum Eastwood delivered
:39:10. > :39:11.at the Ulster Unionist Party conference yesterday.
:39:12. > :39:13.They also pledged to work constructively
:39:14. > :39:18.Colum Eastwood, the first SDLP leader to address the conference
:39:19. > :39:20.received a standing ovation after his speech.
:39:21. > :39:27.Our Political Correspondent, Enda McClafferty, was there.
:39:28. > :39:34.His report contains some flash photography. Four weeks their
:39:35. > :39:40.parties have been flirting behind the scenes, now, at last, they step
:39:41. > :39:43.out together in public. A political partnership between two men who want
:39:44. > :39:50.was agreed, but have committed to work together in picking and
:39:51. > :39:54.choosing their battles. There's been plenty of interest as
:39:55. > :39:59.to whether the SDLP and Unionist party will work together in
:40:00. > :40:04.opposition. The answer is simple. Of course we will -- the Ulster
:40:05. > :40:09.Unionist party. Our nationalism under your unionism will not
:40:10. > :40:13.seamlessly fit any time soon, however, this difference does not
:40:14. > :40:18.diminish our ability to pursue the commonality of an immediate cause,
:40:19. > :40:20.both the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists share the common ground of
:40:21. > :40:26.wanting to make Northern Ireland work.
:40:27. > :40:30.And it helps when you have a common enemy.
:40:31. > :40:35.The DUP and Sinn Fein have no such ambition or aspiration for our
:40:36. > :40:38.people this place. They never have. They believe the symbolism of the
:40:39. > :40:47.coalition suffices, and nothing more. They are all gas and no
:40:48. > :40:49.government. Even with 55 press officers, and a new press secretary
:40:50. > :40:54.they struggled to fabricate the illusion of progress.
:40:55. > :40:58.Now they've made a commitment publicly next question is will they
:40:59. > :41:02.sell themselves as an alternative government? The Government in
:41:03. > :41:09.waiting? All will be bullish begin and end on benches?
:41:10. > :41:15.We need to convince the electorate we are a viable alternative. That
:41:16. > :41:25.means working in partnership with the SDLP. I welcome the appearance
:41:26. > :41:29.of their leader. Vote me you get Colum Eastwood. Vote Colum Eastwood
:41:30. > :41:33.you get me. Vote both of us and we make Northern Ireland work whatever
:41:34. > :41:39.our motivations. They have a new slogan, but it may take time before
:41:40. > :41:42.both parties are fully programmed for opposition, when that happens,
:41:43. > :41:47.will it mean the end of pacts with the DUP?
:41:48. > :41:52.We are on a very fluid political situation nationally and
:41:53. > :41:56.internationally. I've been in politics long enough to understand
:41:57. > :42:02.that you don't rule anything out. You certainly don't rule anything
:42:03. > :42:05.in. Pact or no part Mike Nesbitt addressed the poor performance in
:42:06. > :42:09.the Assembly election, but he had this to say.
:42:10. > :42:15.To anybody looking to press the panic button, for the very few who
:42:16. > :42:22.have jumped ship and the occasional whisper and malcontent. I say this.
:42:23. > :42:27.Are you so weak you want to unravel for use of work? Just because we
:42:28. > :42:31.didn't get all we wanted first time around?
:42:32. > :42:35.It seemed his message did get through.
:42:36. > :42:41.We took a big step forward with Colum Eastwood coming. I enjoyed his
:42:42. > :42:46.speech. Mike spoke well. We look forward to the next elections and
:42:47. > :42:50.use in opposition. We can successfully scrutinise the
:42:51. > :42:53.executive. I enjoyed what Colum Eastwood had to say. I'm pleased to
:42:54. > :42:56.say we're working together in opposition.
:42:57. > :43:00.Like any blossoming relationship they will be awkward moments, he
:43:01. > :43:03.blushes were spread rumours came to the anthem. The opposition had
:43:04. > :43:04.already left the hall. The opposition had already
:43:05. > :43:06.left the hall. Enda McClafferty reporting there,
:43:07. > :43:08.and just after he came off stage, I spoke to Mike Nesbitt,
:43:09. > :43:12.and I began by asking him if accepts he's now well and truly
:43:13. > :43:26.hitched his party's wagon to that I think I do. The DUP and Sinn Fein
:43:27. > :43:29.have very clearly hitched their wagons to each other, Arlene Foster
:43:30. > :43:34.and Martin McGuinness are clearly joined at the hip. Look at how
:43:35. > :43:38.difficult it is to get a DUP or Sinn Fein spokesman into the same studio
:43:39. > :43:44.or radio studio. They are cooperating. In a way we've never
:43:45. > :43:49.seen before. More importantly, I consider myself to be a centre
:43:50. > :43:53.ground politician, I think Colum Eastwood is as well, so it's not as
:43:54. > :43:58.if we are being forced into this position by the DUP and Sinn Fein.
:43:59. > :44:02.This is a position I would have wanted to adopt. We are the two
:44:03. > :44:07.parties who did most to bring on the Belfast agreement, without which we
:44:08. > :44:12.wouldn't have institutions up the hill at Stormont. We are the parties
:44:13. > :44:15.who can offer hope in terms of delivery, we've done everything we
:44:16. > :44:21.need to do in terms of creating inclusive political institutions. We
:44:22. > :44:25.are near the start of the journey in terms of delivering institutions
:44:26. > :44:28.that deliver for the people on the economy, education, health and
:44:29. > :44:32.housing. You actually said during your speech
:44:33. > :44:36.today, vote me you get Colum Eastwood vote Colum Eastwood you get
:44:37. > :44:43.me. Do you think everyone will be entirely happy about that?
:44:44. > :44:48.I think everybody will be entirely happy that that is the logic in the
:44:49. > :44:51.same way the DUP have pretty mercilessly run around the Unionist
:44:52. > :44:56.community in the last couple of assembly elections saying, if you
:44:57. > :45:00.vote for the Ulster Unionist you are effectively voting for Martin
:45:01. > :45:05.McGuinness as First Minister. They did spin is a little bit to say keep
:45:06. > :45:10.Arlene as First Minister last May. It's the same fundamental message
:45:11. > :45:15.which, ultimately, is a message we are still a sectarian society. My
:45:16. > :45:20.vision is of us moving to a post-sectarian society where people
:45:21. > :45:24.vote, not because of where they deliver whether they are orange or
:45:25. > :45:32.green, but because of what you are done or are promising to do.
:45:33. > :45:35.We talked about establishing a shadow executive, is that happening?
:45:36. > :45:43.Is that something yesterday appears keen on?
:45:44. > :45:49.That was a speculative use of phrasing. Deliberately so, Mark, we
:45:50. > :45:54.are still at very early stages of this. The DUP and Sinn Fein agreed
:45:55. > :46:00.to go into government together back in very early 2007. They've had
:46:01. > :46:04.nearly ten years, nobody argues that they've got their act together, even
:46:05. > :46:09.after a decade. We've only had a few short months, and weeks, and I
:46:10. > :46:16.think, behind-the-scenes, we're doing OK. Not denying the fact that
:46:17. > :46:23.Brexit is an issue for as just as it is for Sinn Fein and the DUP. Today
:46:24. > :46:27.was about showing something, because the behind-the-scenes stuff, by
:46:28. > :46:32.definition, is not visible. It was important that the population saw
:46:33. > :46:38.something tangible, which they got today. I'm saying that in my view, a
:46:39. > :46:43.measure of success, much nearer 2021 when we next looking for a vote
:46:44. > :46:48.could be defined in terms of how many joint policies do we have? Do
:46:49. > :46:53.we have spokespeople working well together? Do we have spokespeople
:46:54. > :46:58.who have made up a shadow executive? It may not happen, it may not be
:46:59. > :47:06.something the SDLP year by into over the next four or five years. It's
:47:07. > :47:11.something I think has a logic to it that might appeal to voters.
:47:12. > :47:16.It's interesting that you say it speculative. The way you brought it
:47:17. > :47:20.up was speculative. If a shadow executive is speculative then surely
:47:21. > :47:23.an alternative government is even more speculative? Yet you are
:47:24. > :47:28.seriously putting that forward as something that voters need to be
:47:29. > :47:34.thinking about for 2021? It's a misleading concept, isn't as? No
:47:35. > :47:39.prospect of the Ulster Unionists or SDLP being the government in 2021.
:47:40. > :47:43.There is every possibility the DUP and Sinn Fein will be the bigger
:47:44. > :47:47.parties, and if they aren't, they will be in a position to choose to
:47:48. > :47:53.be the executive anyway. I see your point. It is a valid
:47:54. > :47:59.point. All I can say is this, if after 21, we at the SDLP are the big
:48:00. > :48:02.parties of government in the executive office, in Stormont
:48:03. > :48:08.Castle, we will not treat these smaller parties the way the DUP and
:48:09. > :48:12.Sinn Fein have cheated the SDLP and the Ulster Unionist party over the
:48:13. > :48:21.last nine and a half years. -- treated the SDLP.
:48:22. > :48:24.He said he is frankly disappointed, not terribly happy at the position
:48:25. > :48:28.the Ulster Unionists have adopted after the referendum. You said you
:48:29. > :48:33.were in support of remaining but have accepted the road to leave. You
:48:34. > :48:38.think Brexit means Brexit. Surely that subject, which is all embracing
:48:39. > :48:41.at the moment, could seriously undermine your working relationship
:48:42. > :48:48.with the SDLP in the months and years ahead? If that was the case
:48:49. > :48:54.Colum Eastwood would not have felt it possible for him to come to
:48:55. > :48:58.conference, never mind stand on the platform, confidently articulating
:48:59. > :49:02.his position in the full knowledge it contrasts in a significant way
:49:03. > :49:08.with the position we, and the Ulster Unionist party are taking. It showed
:49:09. > :49:14.great strength and maturity that he is able to do that and we are unable
:49:15. > :49:19.to listen to him. In my speech I accepted the shark and the anger
:49:20. > :49:24.felt by many nationalists on the 24th of June when they woke up to
:49:25. > :49:32.news that the referendum result was to Brexit. I understand that people
:49:33. > :49:35.who were reasonably comfortable, as nationalists, living in Northern
:49:36. > :49:40.Ireland as part of the United Kingdom but the fact that there will
:49:41. > :49:45.had to give precedence to the will of the British people and was
:49:46. > :49:48.contrary to the spirit of the Belfast agreement was not something
:49:49. > :49:53.they had ever envisaged happening. It is something that we must be
:49:54. > :49:59.mindful of, and respectful of, even though we do not accept the position
:50:00. > :50:05.of the SDLP and are arguing that the days of remainders are over. We need
:50:06. > :50:08.to move on to identifying opportunities in the new era for all
:50:09. > :50:13.of the people of Northern Ireland, Unionist, nationalist and other.
:50:14. > :50:18.Some people might think you did a strange thing today. You mentioned
:50:19. > :50:22.people who might be thinking about pressing the panic button. The
:50:23. > :50:28.occasional whisper and malcontent does you put it. Why did you raise
:50:29. > :50:31.the spectre of those individuals? There has been wild speculation
:50:32. > :50:36.coming from the DUP that we are in some sort of meltdown, that there is
:50:37. > :50:41.a long list of high-profile defectors. That is simply not the
:50:42. > :50:47.case. A couple of people have jumped ship. A couple of people are
:50:48. > :50:52.nervous. That is understandable. But I also said, for example, that the
:50:53. > :50:59.Queen's freshers fair we picked up 72 new signatories. The young
:51:00. > :51:03.Unionists are the youngest Unionist party at Queen's University. I
:51:04. > :51:08.signed letters of work on a weekly basis for new members of the party.
:51:09. > :51:13.Our numbers are still at around 2000, and growing. In fact, we are
:51:14. > :51:18.doing research which will be available until next calendar year,
:51:19. > :51:23.which I think will be very good for the state of the Ulster Unionist
:51:24. > :51:30.party. I'm confident we are growing. Indeed, surprisingly about some of
:51:31. > :51:32.the policies people want to protect. That was Mike Nesbitt yesterday.
:51:33. > :51:37.Patricia MacBride and Rick Wilford are with me.
:51:38. > :51:45.We watched those proceedings together yesterday. First of all,
:51:46. > :51:49.Colum Eastwood, it's easy to overplay the significance of him
:51:50. > :51:53.being there in the wall but it is significant.
:51:54. > :51:59.It is. I think both eastward and Nesbitt made it clear that they will
:52:00. > :52:03.creating a corporation as opposition parties. Even though there is not
:52:04. > :52:08.that divides them, not least of all Brexit. They were getting into bed
:52:09. > :52:13.together, but twin beds rather than a double bed. I suspect that what
:52:14. > :52:17.they need to do is not simply go for shifting tactical coalitions in the
:52:18. > :52:20.Assembly, they need, if they are serious about this, they need to
:52:21. > :52:24.develop a well worked out strategic alternative to the policies and
:52:25. > :52:29.programme for government which is going to appeal, we'll see some
:52:30. > :52:33.flesh on those bones. It's not enough to sit back and wait for
:52:34. > :52:37.things to go wrong between Sinn Fein and the DUP. If they are serious
:52:38. > :52:40.they need to articulate a very clear set of policy options that are
:52:41. > :52:45.different from those of the DUP and Sinn Fein.
:52:46. > :52:47.Patricia, did the public love in yesterday between the Ulster
:52:48. > :52:52.Unionist and Colum Eastwood ring true?
:52:53. > :52:57.It's difficult to look at where the dues of the whole matter lies? If
:52:58. > :53:01.you look at the history of the Ulster Unionist party over the last
:53:02. > :53:05.couple of years they were partners in the graduated response, they were
:53:06. > :53:10.in an electoral pact with the DUP. Now they are in an opposition with
:53:11. > :53:14.the SDLP. They are reminiscent of the drunken sailor stumbling and
:53:15. > :53:19.trying every door, never quite finding home. You have the situation
:53:20. > :53:26.with the SDLP are looking at a way of creating a new dynamism within
:53:27. > :53:30.the party. Part of that is a strong, trying to create a strong coalition
:53:31. > :53:35.in opposition to Sinn Fein and the DUP alongside the Ulster Unionists.
:53:36. > :53:40.It's not sitting comfortably for either of the parties at this point.
:53:41. > :53:46.Precisely because of what has just been said. There is no measure of
:53:47. > :53:50.what opposition is. There is no set of policy, no clear alternative to
:53:51. > :53:54.the programme for government which would measure opposition. Until that
:53:55. > :54:01.is down there is no effectiveness. I agree. It's not a case of making a
:54:02. > :54:05.virtue out of a necessity. If they are committing to this they need to
:54:06. > :54:10.get really serious about it. They had nowhere else to go. They were
:54:11. > :54:15.both elected to go into opposition. They need to make that meaningful.
:54:16. > :54:19.They need to produce very clear, articulated and fully costed
:54:20. > :54:23.alternatives and ideas. With a identify what they both believe to
:54:24. > :54:29.be the common ground. There was a lot of convergence between the
:54:30. > :54:33.parties back in May, all of them, actually. I think there is
:54:34. > :54:41.sufficient scope for both the DUP and the SDLP to identify how they
:54:42. > :54:45.can push on in terms of housing, education, certainly the skills
:54:46. > :54:49.agenda with a very closely converged. I think there is prospect
:54:50. > :54:52.there, but they need to get a move on.
:54:53. > :54:56.What did you make of Mike Nesbitt raising the issue of those
:54:57. > :54:59.malcontents who might be thinking of pressing the panic button, was that
:55:00. > :55:03.an odd thing to bring up? I thought it was a strange thing to
:55:04. > :55:09.directly address that rumbling within his own party at such an open
:55:10. > :55:14.and public forum. But we know it's there. You know it's there from the
:55:15. > :55:18.fact that, you know, even in the comments of Danny Kennedy there
:55:19. > :55:23.which was very much lets wait and see. Its underlying as well in
:55:24. > :55:27.comments about, this might be one way we could do things. They might
:55:28. > :55:32.be another. There needs to be building of consensus within the
:55:33. > :55:33.Unionist party. We hear from both of you again
:55:34. > :55:34.shortly. Let's just pause for a moment
:55:35. > :55:37.for a look back at the week gone past in Sixty Seconds,
:55:38. > :55:50.with Stephen Walker. Brexit continued to dominate the
:55:51. > :55:55.political landscape, it's even affecting traffic in Belfast. This
:55:56. > :56:00.is the implication of Brexit. Brexit would be bad news for the people of
:56:01. > :56:01.Ireland, this is the implication of that decision.
:56:02. > :56:06.Correspondence from the Prime Minister court controversy. She
:56:07. > :56:10.confirmed that we got the letter, we were going to publish the letter in
:56:11. > :56:12.any event. The deputy first means is that
:56:13. > :56:21.confident about the Brexit negotiations. The decision to hold
:56:22. > :56:26.the referendum was basically because of infighting within the Tory party.
:56:27. > :56:30.Neither is the SDLP leader. We should be kicking the door of the
:56:31. > :56:34.British Prime Minister to ensure that the interests of the people of
:56:35. > :56:38.Northern Ireland are protected. And the former MP reminded the
:56:39. > :56:40.current one of his behaviour. When I raised issues around the issue of
:56:41. > :56:57.exit... Ian, manners, please. Tomorrow Arlene Foster and Martin
:56:58. > :57:01.engineers go to Downing Street for a meeting with the Prime Minister and
:57:02. > :57:07.first ministers of Scotland and Wales to see how they can work
:57:08. > :57:11.together to maximise Brexit. The difficulties are obvious. First,
:57:12. > :57:15.here are some thoughts from last week about how Northern Ireland's
:57:16. > :57:27.interests may be best protected. And whether or not Dublin should be
:57:28. > :57:33.involved. Most of the negotiations will take place between the United
:57:34. > :57:38.Kingdom. There is a substantive grounds for there to be, in some
:57:39. > :57:43.areas, direct negotiations between the Irish government and the British
:57:44. > :57:49.government. I think the issues that affect the movement on this island,
:57:50. > :57:53.a fact a lot of the money that has helped companies initiatives from
:57:54. > :57:59.Europe, and how we continue to build and develop the economy and Northern
:58:00. > :58:04.Ireland. Great Britain and Northern Ireland, it's not about the whole of
:58:05. > :58:09.Ireland. It's not about the Empire. It's about north and south? That
:58:10. > :58:17.conversation needs to be had within a formal operators. It's been agreed
:58:18. > :58:21.and signed up to buy parties. Would you not be a confident Unionist
:58:22. > :58:25.going and have that conversation? This is about as making sure we put
:58:26. > :58:31.the best pressure in the best places. That's done at Westminster,
:58:32. > :58:35.not overly dinner table in Dublin. That's nonsense. There is an
:58:36. > :58:39.opportunity for us to have two voices on the table, one on the
:58:40. > :58:44.inside in terms of the Irish government and one speaking formally
:58:45. > :58:45.in the British government. All would choose one voice over two?
:58:46. > :58:50.When things are so crucial? 'S So where is Northern Ireland's place
:58:51. > :59:05.'S in any forthcoming discussions it's almost two years since the last
:59:06. > :59:09.meeting was held, do you think anything substantial come out of the
:59:10. > :59:12.talks? I think it's interesting that Theresa May this morning said that
:59:13. > :59:17.she once a grown-up relationship with Scotland, Wales and the North.
:59:18. > :59:21.That type of relationship, for a grown-up relationship you have to
:59:22. > :59:24.have respect. I don't know that she's necessarily going to respect
:59:25. > :59:30.the views of Nicola Sturgeon and Martin McGuinness. They'll with a
:59:31. > :59:35.anti-Brexit agenda. When you look at the statement everything is couched
:59:36. > :59:38.in terms of protecting the union and that busy last thing that Nicola
:59:39. > :59:44.Sturgeon and Martin McGuinness want to be part of. In the case of Nicola
:59:45. > :59:49.Sturgeon it depends, she is prepared to remain in the union in Scotland
:59:50. > :59:55.is protected in the single market. That can't be ensured. I take my
:59:56. > :00:00.only long's point that the more voices you have at the table the
:00:01. > :00:08.better. But, of course, we haven't got one voice in Northern Ireland.
:00:09. > :00:10.The Irish government, Dublin, it in the course of Brexit negotiations
:00:11. > :00:17.will help with what follow in its wake once we are right. We need
:00:18. > :00:20.those trade deals. It is a signal to JNC tomorrow, up-to-date it has been
:00:21. > :00:25.a damp squib. I think what Theresa May is trying to do is invigorate
:00:26. > :00:31.them to provide a forum within which all four nations can engage
:00:32. > :00:34.meaningfully. In that sense, is welcome, but I have no doubt she is
:00:35. > :00:38.committed to getting out. That is not going to play well with
:00:39. > :00:42.Scotland. What do you make of the decision on
:00:43. > :00:47.part of the Unionists not to take part? Maybe not surprise, but is it
:00:48. > :00:52.a serious error? I think it is. I don't agree that
:00:53. > :00:56.the Irish are an ally in our discussions. The Irish government is
:00:57. > :01:00.a co-guarantor of the Good Friday agreement, what Brexit means is that
:01:01. > :01:05.they will be a delegation from an international treaty. The Irish
:01:06. > :01:07.government has a responsibility to negotiate for Irish citizens
:01:08. > :01:12.wherever they are resident, including those in the north. I
:01:13. > :01:13.think it is somewhat short-sighted, especially in terms of the benefits
:01:14. > :01:18.that may flow. especially in terms of the benefits
:01:19. > :01:19.go ahead with this policy, I know. And now back to
:01:20. > :01:20.go ahead with this policy, I know. that may flow. We
:01:21. > :01:20.go ahead with this policy, I know. And now back to Andrew.
:01:21. > :01:22.go ahead with this policy, I know. that may flow. We will watch
:01:23. > :01:29.tomorrow with interest. It's back to Andrew in London.
:01:30. > :01:51.With what Rory Stewart was saying there, it is clear that Islamic
:01:52. > :01:57.State is losing territory in Iraq now, and could come under pressure
:01:58. > :02:06.in Syria as well. It used to control a whole swathe of the coast of
:02:07. > :02:10.Libya, and is now down to a small area of Sirte in Libya. But
:02:11. > :02:14.curiously, it could make them more dangerous here if they are being
:02:15. > :02:19.driven out of the Maghreb and the Levant, they could be more dangerous
:02:20. > :02:25.here. Discuss. That was a very interesting admission from a
:02:26. > :02:31.government minister, of all people, and a well-informed one. Chasing
:02:32. > :02:35.Isis around the Middle East is about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda
:02:36. > :02:45.around Afghanistan and Pakistan. You smash them somewhere, and they pop
:02:46. > :02:51.up somewhere else. He is right to warn that these guys will go
:02:52. > :03:00.somewhere. And it may well be, in Sirte, for example, across the magic
:03:01. > :03:05.oration -- across the Mediterranean into Italy. A lot of the foreign
:03:06. > :03:13.fighters in Mosul have already gone, we heard, which raises the question,
:03:14. > :03:16.to where? I think it is quite right for government ministers to warn
:03:17. > :03:22.that it might have repercussions here. We have been involved in this,
:03:23. > :03:26.with full public consent, as far as we can tell. If it doesn't happen,
:03:27. > :03:32.if there are horrors and outrages here and in the rest of Europe,
:03:33. > :03:36.that's fine. If it does happen, at least the government is prepared. We
:03:37. > :03:48.knew surprised about how categorical Nia Griffith was? She was
:03:49. > :03:53.categorical about support for the Allied action in Iraq, and
:03:54. > :03:59.categorical about Russia. So much so that perhaps written should take
:04:00. > :04:03.tougher sanctions on its own, even if it can't get the Europeans to
:04:04. > :04:08.fall in line. I found that interesting. I was surprised by
:04:09. > :04:13.that. Tom may be right that Rory said more than perhaps he was
:04:14. > :04:18.intending, but I thought that some of what she said sounded politically
:04:19. > :04:22.imprudent in the current context of the Labour Party. I'm not sure she
:04:23. > :04:27.cleared those lines with the Labour office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy
:04:28. > :04:32.are in the same place about it. I'm not sure there is that much
:04:33. > :04:35.leadership. People at the moment get out there and say what they think
:04:36. > :04:42.it's right for the party. She sounded dead right to me. Whether it
:04:43. > :04:49.is ill-advised or not, people should answer... I want to move on, because
:04:50. > :04:52.Brexit never goes away. This week we saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow
:04:53. > :04:56.Foreign Secretary. He is going to be the chair of the select committee in
:04:57. > :05:00.the Commons which will monitor the Department for Brexit. All sorts of
:05:01. > :05:02.people will be coming to give testimony and so one. Let's hear
:05:03. > :05:05.what he told Andrew Marr. I think it will be very important
:05:06. > :05:08.for the government to indicate that if it is not possible within the two
:05:09. > :05:11.years provided for by Article 50 to negotiate both our withdrawal
:05:12. > :05:14.agreement and a new trading relationship, market access,
:05:15. > :05:15.including for services, 80% of our economy, million jobs,
:05:16. > :05:17.in financial services, that it should tell the House
:05:18. > :05:20.of Commons that it will seek a transitional arrangement
:05:21. > :05:32.with the European Union. If the deal is not done at the end
:05:33. > :05:38.of the two-year Article 50 process, would the government go for an
:05:39. > :05:43.interim agreement, or would it fall back on WTO, World Trade
:05:44. > :05:46.Organisation, Rawls? My understanding is the article 15
:05:47. > :05:50.negotiation doesn't specifically include what Britain's future
:05:51. > :05:56.trading relationship with the EU would be. It is perfectly possible
:05:57. > :06:01.that Article 50 could be triggered, and after two years we don't have a
:06:02. > :06:13.trade deal, but the trade deal negotiations are ongoing when we are
:06:14. > :06:15.outside the EU. But the trade deal negotiations are the most important
:06:16. > :06:17.thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover it, what is it about? Absolutely
:06:18. > :06:23.essential. The trade deal with Canada has taken nine years, and now
:06:24. > :06:33.it looks like it is fading, because of the Walloons. Just one small part
:06:34. > :06:37.of the country. If you cannot do a free-trade deal with Canada, a
:06:38. > :06:41.progressive, social Democratic Canada, who can the EU do a trade
:06:42. > :06:46.deal with? You would think it would be easy with us, because we have all
:06:47. > :06:50.of the level playing field agreements in place. You would hope
:06:51. > :06:55.it would be easier, but it may not be, because in the end, it will
:06:56. > :07:05.hinge on the single market and if we are in or out. If we are in, can we
:07:06. > :07:08.have a small break on immigration? It looks like not. What is
:07:09. > :07:11.interesting about the opinion polls is, in the last two opinion polls
:07:12. > :07:16.there was a significant change in public opinion, where people are now
:07:17. > :07:20.saying they think that actually trade, the economy, the single
:07:21. > :07:24.market is more important than immigration. If it is really true,
:07:25. > :07:29.as the observer is reporting today, that banks are on the move, and in a
:07:30. > :07:34.year's time there could be a significant collapse in the income
:07:35. > :07:46.we get from finance, the income that the Treasury gets, then public
:07:47. > :07:49.opinion might change. They may say, we don't want more immigration, but
:07:50. > :07:54.this isn't a price worth paying. Everything tends to be seen through
:07:55. > :08:00.the Brexit lens at the moment. Things are not always as they seem.
:08:01. > :08:05.The Canadian- EU free trade agreement was about increasing free
:08:06. > :08:08.trade between the EU and Canada, and therefore subject to the
:08:09. > :08:13.ratification of all members. Any deal we do will not give us the same
:08:14. > :08:18.access we have at the moment. The question is, how much will it be
:08:19. > :08:23.diminished? It may not be subject to the same ratification process.
:08:24. > :08:29.Absolutely right. Another unbelievably technical point that we
:08:30. > :08:34.still don't know is, if we can get this free-trade deal with the EU at
:08:35. > :08:42.the same time as our Brexit talks and deal, the divorce deal as well
:08:43. > :08:51.as the remarriage deal, then one gets signed off by QM V. The trade
:08:52. > :08:57.deal may still need all 28, all 27, including the people from the
:08:58. > :09:01.Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority of parliament. This is exactly why
:09:02. > :09:05.Theresa May would like the transitional deal to push this one
:09:06. > :09:09.deeper. I was surprised to hear Hilary Benn pushing this line this
:09:10. > :09:14.morning. The remainers have been all over the place. They wanted a vote
:09:15. > :09:19.after Article 50 had been triggered about the deal. Then they wanted a
:09:20. > :09:26.vote before Article 50. Now they are talking about a vote before article
:09:27. > :09:31.Article 50 is triggered about a trade deal. They need to make up
:09:32. > :09:35.their minds about what it is they are pushing for, and what their best
:09:36. > :09:41.hope of obstructing Brexit is, and stick with it. Something else we see
:09:42. > :09:46.through the Brexit lens, which isn't always helpful, is Calais. The
:09:47. > :09:51.French bulldozers will move in tomorrow. We will see some pretty
:09:52. > :09:55.disturbing scenes on the TV. We will see some horrible scenes. The
:09:56. > :10:00.government has handled this very badly. Having passed an amendment in
:10:01. > :10:04.April saying we would take something like 3000 children, a lot of those
:10:05. > :10:08.children have disappeared. Save the Children, one of the charities
:10:09. > :10:17.there, are very worried that people traffickers have been in there, and
:10:18. > :10:19.a lot of those children have vanished. We haven't sent social
:10:20. > :10:26.workers in. No preparations have been made what ever. You are raising
:10:27. > :10:31.an interesting point. We don't know how many we are meant to be taking.
:10:32. > :10:38.The huge argument has arisen over what the age is of some of the ones
:10:39. > :10:43.coming in. Is this another problem for the Home Office? To some extent.
:10:44. > :10:47.Didn't Theresa May 's too well to survive six weeks of this? Amber
:10:48. > :10:52.Rudd has been there for three months. It is clear that the Home
:10:53. > :11:00.Office didn't prepare for this. They didn't prepare for the age
:11:01. > :11:04.verification or when it will go. It needs to be an perfect. We don't
:11:05. > :11:10.know how many we will take, because the Home Office will not say. I want
:11:11. > :11:14.to talk about airport capacity, but I won't, because I don't think we
:11:15. > :11:18.have anything to say about it until the statement on Tuesday from
:11:19. > :11:22.Transport Minister Grayling. When you look at the polls and see the
:11:23. > :11:27.decision on airport runway expansion being kicked into the long grass for
:11:28. > :11:31.a year, are we heading for an early election next year or not? I think
:11:32. > :11:37.Theresa May will do everything she can to avoid it. If there is an
:11:38. > :11:43.election before 2020, it is bound to be about Europe, and that is a much
:11:44. > :11:47.harder case for her to win than just a question of who is the best Prime
:11:48. > :11:52.Minister. She will have a tough time, because it will be a general
:11:53. > :11:58.election about in or out of the single market. Half of her party
:11:59. > :12:02.will peel away. How do she conduct a general election when the likes of
:12:03. > :12:07.Anna Soubry will not stand on the same platform? It will be difficult.
:12:08. > :12:15.But she may reach such a stalemate that she just calls one. No general
:12:16. > :12:19.election next year because it will split the Tory party. There will be
:12:20. > :12:23.won in 2019 when she cannot get Brexit through the House of Commons.
:12:24. > :12:24.You really can have too much of a good thing. I
:12:25. > :12:29.You really can have too much of a good thing. I just want to show a
:12:30. > :12:34.little clip of the former Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly
:12:35. > :12:41.last night. Let's just watch this. There he is.
:12:42. > :12:49.Where is the hand? That is the worrying bit! We will no longer be
:12:50. > :12:57.saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair of hands! Can we agree on that?
:12:58. > :13:05.Remarkable that he was once the man most feared by David Cameron! Labour
:13:06. > :13:12.leader 2021. He has hit popular culture in the way that many few
:13:13. > :13:16.politicians do. Charm, gusto, bravery, no worries about being
:13:17. > :13:23.embarrassed. All the things that you don't like about being a politician.
:13:24. > :13:26.We have run out of time. You can get it on social media.
:13:27. > :13:28.Jo Coburn will be back with the Daily Politics tomorrow
:13:29. > :13:32.And I'll be back here next Sunday at the same time.
:13:33. > :14:05.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:06. > :14:08.Everyone's living these amazing lives,