:00:38. > :00:45.Jeremy Corbyn calls on Britain to accept more refugees and economic
:00:46. > :00:49.migrants, as the Port of Calais is forced to close overnight
:00:50. > :00:54.after migrants attempted to force their way onto a Channel ferry.
:00:55. > :00:57.David Cameron appears increasingly confident he'll bag a deal on EU
:00:58. > :01:00.reform next month, including new measures to reduce EU migration
:01:01. > :01:06.In the first of three Sunday Politics debates,
:01:07. > :01:10.the leave and remain campaigns go head-to-head on immigration.
:01:11. > :01:15.And speaking exclusively to this programme, Ed Miliband's former
:01:16. > :01:19.pollster Deborah Mattinson criticises Labour's official report
:01:20. > :01:22.into why the party lost the general election for failing to face up
:01:23. > :01:29.I think it was a whitewash and a massive missed opportunity.
:01:30. > :01:30.And in Northern Ireland: Despite welfare mitigations,
:01:31. > :01:32.it seems some benefits claimants will lose out
:01:33. > :01:37.So have our politicians abandoned those most in need?
:01:38. > :01:51.-- the conservative's Mayor candidate has now launched his
:01:52. > :01:52.action plan. And with me, as always,
:01:53. > :01:54.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:55. > :01:57.Nick Watt, Beth Rigby and Janan They'll be tweeting
:01:58. > :01:59.throughout the programme So, the Port of Calais was forced
:02:00. > :02:06.to close for a while yesterday after migrants managed to breach
:02:07. > :02:09.security and board a ferry. Amateur footage captured
:02:10. > :02:12.the moment a group managed to break through security fences and head
:02:13. > :02:14.towards the P ferry. The incident happened
:02:15. > :02:16.during a protest at the port, The head of the Road Haulage
:02:17. > :02:20.Association here in Britain has renewed demands for the French
:02:21. > :02:22.military to intervene. As it happens,
:02:23. > :02:24.the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was in northern France yesterday,
:02:25. > :02:26.visiting the migrant camps While he was there,
:02:27. > :02:31.he reiterated his calls for the British Government to do
:02:32. > :02:37.more to help migrants. I talk to people all over
:02:38. > :02:40.the country and not everyone is that cold-hearted, not everyone
:02:41. > :02:44.else has a stony heart. They are prepared to reach out,
:02:45. > :02:47.and I think we need a response And indeed Germany has
:02:48. > :02:53.done an enormous amount, other countries have
:02:54. > :02:56.done varying amounts, and I think we should
:02:57. > :02:59.be part of helping to bring a European-wide support
:03:00. > :03:12.to people, and that's what I'm Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Beth, what
:03:13. > :03:17.we make of the story, the government will allow unaccompanied children
:03:18. > :03:23.refugees, already in Europe, to come into Britain? Some of my government
:03:24. > :03:26.sources have suggested that is not what David Cameron would like to do,
:03:27. > :03:30.if you think about how he dealt with the crisis in August, he said we
:03:31. > :03:35.will take some Syrian refugees but we will take them from the camps in
:03:36. > :03:39.Syria and around Syria, we will not take them from Calais, because he
:03:40. > :03:44.thinks this is a push factor and it makes people come over. What the
:03:45. > :03:50.government might end up doing, they might agree to take refugee children
:03:51. > :03:54.unaccompanied, but only from Syria and the Middle East, not from
:03:55. > :04:02.Calais. What about the kids who have made it here? They could be bad way.
:04:03. > :04:06.Nick? The signals on government, they have not made any decisions yet
:04:07. > :04:10.and the announcement is not imminent, but Beth makes a very
:04:11. > :04:13.important point, the Prime Minister said you do not want to encourage
:04:14. > :04:15.people to make that journey, therefore the instinct is to take
:04:16. > :04:21.people from the neighbouring countries. Apart from unaccompanied
:04:22. > :04:26.kids, they have come across in terrible conditions, and they are in
:04:27. > :04:30.Calais and Dunkirk. The call to take these children, from that report,
:04:31. > :04:33.that says that is a fair proportion of the 26,000 unaccompanied children
:04:34. > :04:39.that have come to Europe. The figures in that report are
:04:40. > :04:44.terrifying, in 2014, of the 13,000 unaccompanied children that ended up
:04:45. > :04:48.in Italy, 3000 went missing, and of the African children that went to
:04:49. > :04:54.Italy, half of them had been subject to some form of sexual abuse, it is
:04:55. > :05:01.the most horrific figures. That 3000 figure, endorsed by Jeremy Corbyn,
:05:02. > :05:03.also endorsed by the cross-party International Development Select
:05:04. > :05:08.Committee, said there is edible pressure on the Prime Minister on
:05:09. > :05:12.this one. -- formidable. The humanitarian case has been strongly
:05:13. > :05:17.but by Jeremy Corbyn and others, but it is marginal. 3000 children, that
:05:18. > :05:24.would be great for them, but 37,000 migrants have come to Greece in
:05:25. > :05:29.January alone, and the mud has not even ended, ten times the number
:05:30. > :05:35.that came in last January -- the month. The problem is getting bigger
:05:36. > :05:39.and bigger, and the response has been wholly inadequate. It has, it
:05:40. > :05:46.looks marginal, but that is about as much as you can expect, until there
:05:47. > :05:50.is EU wide agreement about how to distribute what you might call the
:05:51. > :05:53.burden of the influx, but there is nothing close to that agreement and
:05:54. > :05:58.there's not even a deal between the EU and Turkey about ceiling borders
:05:59. > :06:02.and dealing with human traffickers let alone a deal within the EU about
:06:03. > :06:07.which country bears how much of the burden. Until then, you just have
:06:08. > :06:11.these improvised solutions, 3000 here, France taking a bit more, and
:06:12. > :06:15.there is no certainty that the unaccompanied children are
:06:16. > :06:19.overwhelmingly Syrian, there is the suspicion that Syrians travel as
:06:20. > :06:25.complete families and the unaccompanied children are
:06:26. > :06:28.disproportionately from Somalia, for example, similarly distress, but not
:06:29. > :06:32.the problem that they think they are dealing with. This plays into the
:06:33. > :06:37.referendum question, there is the nervousness in the in campaign, that
:06:38. > :06:41.a referendum in September, after a summer of large sums of migrants
:06:42. > :06:45.coming in, kids or otherwise, would affect the result one way or
:06:46. > :06:47.another. That is a big story, and we will come back to that at the end of
:06:48. > :06:49.the show. Last week, the long-awaited autopsy
:06:50. > :06:52.into Labour's defeat at the general The report by Margaret Beckett
:06:53. > :06:57.concluded that Ed Miliband wasn't judged to be as strong a leader
:06:58. > :07:00.as David Cameron, and that Labour had failed to shake off the myth
:07:01. > :07:03.that Labour was responsible But parallel research was also
:07:04. > :07:06.commissioned to inform the Beckett Report,
:07:07. > :07:08.and despite being completed in July, The former Labour pollster
:07:09. > :07:12.Deborah Mattinson carried out this research, and has spoken exclusively
:07:13. > :07:15.to the Sunday Politics. We are saying the Conservatives
:07:16. > :07:26.are the largest party. We all know what happened
:07:27. > :07:28.on election night. Instead of a hung parliament,
:07:29. > :07:32.David Cameron walked back into Downing Street
:07:33. > :07:35.with a majority of 12. Labour got it wrong, as well,
:07:36. > :07:38.suffering a net loss of 26 Friends, this is not the speech
:07:39. > :07:42.I wanted to give today. Ed Miliband resigned
:07:43. > :07:45.within hours, but it has taken eight and a half
:07:46. > :07:48.months for the party to publish its own inquiry
:07:49. > :07:52.into what went wrong. Margaret Beckett's report is called
:07:53. > :07:56.Learning The Lessons From Defeat. It doesn't, says one pollster,
:07:57. > :08:00.who has worked for several former I think it was a whitewash
:08:01. > :08:05.and a massive missed opportunity. Just a few weeks after the election
:08:06. > :08:08.defeat, Deborah Mattinson was commissioned
:08:09. > :08:11.by the acting leader Harriet Harman to research
:08:12. > :08:13.why Labour lost. She says the evidence was meant
:08:14. > :08:15.to feed into the Beckett I did brief Margaret
:08:16. > :08:21.Beckett so I was somewhat disappointed not to see some
:08:22. > :08:24.of that reflected back. Yes, I think she picked up
:08:25. > :08:27.on the economy but there was actually no analysis,
:08:28. > :08:30.it is reduced effectively to one And there is a lot of quite
:08:31. > :08:40.defensive stuff about the fact this does not necessarily
:08:41. > :08:43.mean that anti-austerity is wrong. "Of course we had a great business
:08:44. > :08:46.strategy, what a pity the voters "That was probably
:08:47. > :08:50.the fault of the media". Quite apologetic,
:08:51. > :08:54.lots of defensive stuff in there, but nothing that actually
:08:55. > :08:57.really shone a light on what had Do you accept that when Labour
:08:58. > :09:01.was last in power it No, I don't, and I know
:09:02. > :09:06.you might not agree with that Margaret Beckett's report
:09:07. > :09:14.acknowledges that Labour failed to shake what she
:09:15. > :09:16.describes as the myth that the party caused
:09:17. > :09:18.the financial crisis. But she concludes that Labour
:09:19. > :09:22.was not seen as anti-aspiration Deborah Mattinson says that
:09:23. > :09:25.for people in her focus groups Frankly, they did not trust Labour
:09:26. > :09:30.to manage the economy effectively, they were very
:09:31. > :09:33.concerned about that. In their minds, they
:09:34. > :09:38.are seeing a conflation between the financial crisis,
:09:39. > :09:44.which they do blame Labour for, rightly or wrongly,
:09:45. > :09:45.and their sense that Labour would waste money,
:09:46. > :09:48.their money, and run the economy Voters could not see
:09:49. > :09:55.him as Prime Minister. But Margaret Beckett
:09:56. > :09:59.concluded that Ed Miliband faced an exceptionally
:10:00. > :10:02.vitriolic and personal attack People looked at Ed Miliband
:10:03. > :10:07.and did not see him And if you look at every
:10:08. > :10:12.election since the 70s, what we see, the party that has
:10:13. > :10:15.the leader with the best ratings is the party that wins,
:10:16. > :10:19.there is no exception to that. I get it, that people weren't
:10:20. > :10:22.prejudiced against immigration, I get it and I understand
:10:23. > :10:28.the need to change. The Beckett Report acknowledges that
:10:29. > :10:31.Labour did not quite get it on issues like immigration
:10:32. > :10:35.and benefits, and that the fear of the SNP propping up a minority
:10:36. > :10:46.government scared off many voters. But Deborah Mattinson says Labour
:10:47. > :10:54.was losing support in Scotland well before the independence referendum
:10:55. > :10:57.and the surge in SNP support. Put simply, she said
:10:58. > :10:59.voters did not feel that Labour was on their side,
:11:00. > :11:05.and the party still does not I feel very concerned
:11:06. > :11:13.that the lessons will be learned and I can't see how
:11:14. > :11:16.they will be learned, because that was the vehicle,
:11:17. > :11:19.that was the moment, and if this report does not address
:11:20. > :11:21.those issues then I'm not No political party has a divine
:11:22. > :11:26.right to exist and unless Labour really listens to those voters,
:11:27. > :11:28.that it must persuade, it stands no chance
:11:29. > :11:30.of winning the next election. And we've been joined by the former
:11:31. > :11:33.Shadow Cabinet minister Michael Dugher - you might remember
:11:34. > :11:40.he was sacked by Jeremy Corbyn Deborah Mattinson says the better
:11:41. > :11:46.report is a whitewash, is she right? -- Beckett Report. That is a bit
:11:47. > :11:49.harsh, does it have all the answers, though, of course not, and I think
:11:50. > :11:54.Deborah Mattinson make some very fair observations in that piece, but
:11:55. > :11:58.what Margaret concludes in her report, it is not a massive shock to
:11:59. > :12:02.those of us that were knocking on doors last May and have thought long
:12:03. > :12:05.and hard about it since, we were not trusted enough on the economy, and
:12:06. > :12:09.that was the big issue, but also on immigration and welfare, we were
:12:10. > :12:13.seen as out of touch, and also leadership being the most important
:12:14. > :12:18.thing in any race. She makes those conclusions, in the report, and I
:12:19. > :12:21.think the key thing now, is to listen to the issues that she
:12:22. > :12:24.raises, but also listen to Debra and many others who have made a
:12:25. > :12:29.contribution since the report came out. We have got to face up to the
:12:30. > :12:34.difficult issues as to why we lost, if we are going to win again. Voters
:12:35. > :12:37.found Ed Miliband the personification of the Labour brand,
:12:38. > :12:43.that was the problem, well-meaning but ineffectual. I'm likely to
:12:44. > :12:49.deliver -- and likely to deliver on promises. Did you detect that at the
:12:50. > :12:53.time? I was very close to Ed Miliband and I gave him some advice,
:12:54. > :12:57.some of which he took and some of which he didn't. I wanted him to be
:12:58. > :13:02.a success, I saw him in private and you have strong he did beat, and
:13:03. > :13:06.often he got very unfair coverage in the media and often he did not do
:13:07. > :13:10.himself justice in his performances -- I saw him in private and how
:13:11. > :13:16.strong he did beat. The real lesson here, for any lead at the Labour
:13:17. > :13:21.Party can you have got to play to your strengths and you have got a
:13:22. > :13:27.fundamentally address your perceived weaknesses. The private polling
:13:28. > :13:31.showed the Tories were in the late, was that not a warning that things
:13:32. > :13:36.were going wrong? -- in the lead. I'm not sure how much private
:13:37. > :13:42.polling I was shown. You did not see this? The year before the election,
:13:43. > :13:45.I was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Transport, I was not so
:13:46. > :13:51.much part of the central operations and I did not see private polling.
:13:52. > :13:54.Many of us thought that we were getting difficult conversations on
:13:55. > :13:57.the doorstep, but we were told consistently, including by the
:13:58. > :14:00.pollsters, that we were neck and neck and there was a perception that
:14:01. > :14:04.we were doing better in the marginals, as well. That turned out
:14:05. > :14:09.to be catastrophically wrong, but one of the things that is not in
:14:10. > :14:13.Margaret's report is about the organisational lessons, that does
:14:14. > :14:17.speak, if you have a million conversations, what are you doing
:14:18. > :14:21.with the data? I remember in the last two days of the campaign, I was
:14:22. > :14:26.sent to Derbyshire, Amber Valley, and in Yorkshire, to Rothwell, but I
:14:27. > :14:31.should have been sent to Morley to help Ed Balls, and Derby North to
:14:32. > :14:37.help Chris Wood this. The campaign has got to base what they do on the
:14:38. > :14:40.information, and in 2010 we took very hard decisions, six months away
:14:41. > :14:44.from polling day, based on the information we had about prioritise
:14:45. > :14:52.in resources, but are not sure that happens this time. -- I'm not sure.
:14:53. > :15:03.Deborah Mattinson looks at the boundary changes before the next
:15:04. > :15:09.election, and she thinks the Beckett Report made a failure to confront
:15:10. > :15:15.why you lost enough. Her conclusion is this, Labour's future is in
:15:16. > :15:19.profound jeopardy - is it? I think we have a massive challenge at the
:15:20. > :15:25.next election. I don't think any political party has a right to be
:15:26. > :15:29.successful in the future. I am an optimistic person. Labour, when we
:15:30. > :15:34.have got our act together, when we have been in touch with the public
:15:35. > :15:43.we have shown we can win. Is Labour's continued existence a
:15:44. > :15:49.question mark? We have got to start getting in touch with the public.
:15:50. > :16:01.One thing the report did slightly skirt around, the question over
:16:02. > :16:05.politics as an identity. People like myself have been banging on about
:16:06. > :16:10.this, not just in the weeks before the election but for months and
:16:11. > :16:14.years before, and we need to face up to that. No political party has a
:16:15. > :16:21.right to exist, but I think if Labour gets our act together, if we
:16:22. > :16:25.stop picking fights with ourselves, if we face up to the difficult
:16:26. > :16:32.issues in this report and elsewhere, we can be successful in the future.
:16:33. > :16:37.In what ways, as things stand at the moment, what ways will Labour be
:16:38. > :16:41.better, in better shape, under Jeremy Corbyn heading into the 2020
:16:42. > :16:47.election than it was in the 2015 election? What is one of the main
:16:48. > :16:56.conclusions from the Beckett Report, it said we did make some gains,
:16:57. > :17:01.1.5%, but we were stacking up area -- support in areas where we were
:17:02. > :17:05.already strong. If they think you are out of touch on immigration and
:17:06. > :17:10.welfare, you had better start talking about immigration and
:17:11. > :17:16.welfare. Jeremy Corbyn seems to want almost no limit on immigration, it
:17:17. > :17:24.is hard to detect if he would have any limits, and he is rather against
:17:25. > :17:29.welfare reforms. I'm not sure that is an election winning strategy. On
:17:30. > :17:35.immigration, I made this point to him, you have got to understand this
:17:36. > :17:38.is the second biggest issue nationally, it is the biggest issue
:17:39. > :17:47.in many constituencies including mine, and I said that many of the
:17:48. > :17:51.answers are about stopping pressure on wages and conditions. There are
:17:52. > :17:58.good centre-left solutions to these problems, about Europe dividing more
:17:59. > :18:03.help for communities facing these changes. I made the point to him, on
:18:04. > :18:08.welfare he is right to say we should be standing up to help the most
:18:09. > :18:12.vulnerable, but in my experience you only get heard on those issues if
:18:13. > :18:16.the public think you are for real in terms of wanting to be tough on
:18:17. > :18:21.people who are frankly making decisions not to go into work so you
:18:22. > :18:26.have got to get the balance right. Do you accept, given his huge
:18:27. > :18:32.support among party members, that Jeremy Corbyn will lead you into the
:18:33. > :18:39.next election? He faces a big test in May. We have seen the polls and
:18:40. > :18:43.the ratings, any big test is a real election. He faces a big test
:18:44. > :18:47.because he was clear that a left-wing agenda is the key to
:18:48. > :18:51.transforming our fortunes in Scotland, I hope he's right. We need
:18:52. > :18:55.to win in London but we have got to show we can make big gains in the
:18:56. > :19:01.rest of London as well and we have got to hold onto power in Wales as
:19:02. > :19:06.well. But even if he fails these tests, do you think there will be an
:19:07. > :19:12.attempt to remove him? We have got to get behind Jeremy and he has got
:19:13. > :19:17.to show us that he can deliver and turn things around. We need to get
:19:18. > :19:28.behind him. People are very clear about what Jeremy stands for. He has
:19:29. > :19:31.achieved remarkable cut throughs. Over the next few months we will see
:19:32. > :19:35.more of that so he has got to be given a chance because he has a huge
:19:36. > :19:39.mandate by the party members but he has got to show he can turn that
:19:40. > :19:44.into real support from the public. That means also winning the support
:19:45. > :19:48.of people who voted Conservative last time. It is not an easy
:19:49. > :19:53.challenge, we are behind him in that but he has got to show he can learn
:19:54. > :19:58.the lessons that Margaret Beckett has talked about and Debra and
:19:59. > :20:00.others as well. We have got to stop it there, thank you.
:20:01. > :20:03.The hole Labour is in is deepest in Scotland, where the once-mighty
:20:04. > :20:05.party now holds just one Westminster seat.
:20:06. > :20:07.If Jeremy Corbyn is to win the general election in 2020,
:20:08. > :20:10.he needs to claw back support from the SNP,
:20:11. > :20:13.and the first test of his appeal north of the border is coming up
:20:14. > :20:15.fast in elections to the Scottish parliament in May.
:20:16. > :20:18.Speaking to Andrew Marr this morning, the leader of the SNP took
:20:19. > :20:22.aim at Mr Corbyn, criticising a plan he's floated
:20:23. > :20:25.to keep Britain's Trident submarines minus their nuclear warheads.
:20:26. > :20:28.I wonder what you made of Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that
:20:29. > :20:30.you could keep the Trident submarines, therefore keep the jobs
:20:31. > :20:33.in Scotland, but not have nuclear missiles on them.
:20:34. > :20:37.I think it was ridiculous and I think it's a sign of just how
:20:38. > :20:39.tortured these debates are becoming within the Labour Party.
:20:40. > :20:41.On Trident, I agree with Jeremy Corbyn.
:20:42. > :20:45.I'm not in favour of the renewal of Trident, and we might have a vote
:20:46. > :20:49.on that in the House of Commons sooner rather than later.
:20:50. > :20:56.I think the real challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is,
:20:57. > :20:59.can he get his party into the position he wants it to be
:21:00. > :21:02.in so we can have any chance at all of stopping
:21:03. > :21:06.For Labour to sit on the fence on this issue or have a free vote
:21:07. > :21:10.on this issue will leave them without a shred of credibility.
:21:11. > :21:13.And I've been joined now by the Shadow Scottish Secretary,
:21:14. > :21:24.Let's pick up on the point from Nicola Sturgeon about Trident. In
:21:25. > :21:31.Scotland the electoral choice on this is clear, if you are unilateral
:21:32. > :21:34.disarmament, you vote SNP. You couldn't vote Labour on this issue
:21:35. > :21:40.because people don't know what you stand for. The Labour Party has been
:21:41. > :21:45.clear, a motion was passed almost unanimously to reject the renewal of
:21:46. > :21:52.Trident on that policy basis. But it is not party policy. There is a
:21:53. > :21:56.policy review happening at the moment so the Scottish Labour
:21:57. > :22:04.Party's policy on this is clear. It is a Scottish election don't forget.
:22:05. > :22:09.These Trident issues are diverting us away from big issues of policy in
:22:10. > :22:17.terms of public services. The Deborah Mattinson research found
:22:18. > :22:21.Scottish voters felt abandoned by the Labour Party. When did Labour
:22:22. > :22:26.start taking Scottish voters for granted? It has been clear from a
:22:27. > :22:30.number of reports that have been done that there has been a process
:22:31. > :22:37.in the party where we have not devolved the party as much as
:22:38. > :22:40.Scotland. The Scottish party, in 1999 it was a tremendous opportunity
:22:41. > :22:55.for the Scottish Labour Party but I don't think we have caught up with
:22:56. > :23:05.that. I think under Kesia's leadership she is refreshing that.
:23:06. > :23:13.You face further electoral disasters in Holyrood in May. No one is under
:23:14. > :23:20.any illusion this will be a difficult election, but what Kesia
:23:21. > :23:23.is trying to do is get a positive policy platform together, reconnect
:23:24. > :23:27.with Scottish people, respond to what Scottish people have been
:23:28. > :23:31.saying on the doorsteps, and she's doing that on the basis of
:23:32. > :23:37.responding to what the Scottish people want. That's what people want
:23:38. > :23:44.to have. What the Shadow Cabinet was told by your own election director
:23:45. > :23:49.is that he expects you to lose all of your constituency MSPs, just as
:23:50. > :23:55.you lost all of your constituency MPs bar you last May. What can you
:23:56. > :24:06.do to avoid that? The important thing is to go back to Kezia
:24:07. > :24:11.Dugdale's policy. She wants to change the policies of the Scottish
:24:12. > :24:18.Labour Party in order for us to have a policy platform that is incredibly
:24:19. > :24:22.positive. What is the most distinctive Scottish policy
:24:23. > :24:27.initiative since Jeremy Corbyn became leader? This isn't about
:24:28. > :24:32.Jeremy Corbyn, it is about Kezia Dugdale. We have helped to buy
:24:33. > :24:37.scheme for first time buyers, we want to build 60,000 affordable
:24:38. > :24:41.homes, we want to put the 50p tax rate back in to close the
:24:42. > :24:46.educational attainment gap, they are just a few of the policies she has
:24:47. > :24:51.announced already. She is one of the few people in this election campaign
:24:52. > :24:56.actually talking about the policy issues of Scotland. Nobody is
:24:57. > :24:59.talking about these kinds of issues. Do you think that collection
:25:00. > :25:04.policies you have outlined are enough to stave off a further
:25:05. > :25:08.electoral humiliation? It is just the start of a policy platform she
:25:09. > :25:16.will be announcing in the run-up to the elections. Help to buy is a Tory
:25:17. > :25:20.policy. This is about resolving a housing crisis that has been created
:25:21. > :25:28.by an SNP government. We are not holding them to account because
:25:29. > :25:33.people are obsessing over things like polls. The transport system is
:25:34. > :25:37.creaking at the seams. This has got to be dealt with and there is a real
:25:38. > :25:42.opportunity to talk about the powers the Scottish Government currently
:25:43. > :25:48.has and new powers. Let's talk about tomorrow's Scotland. How much would
:25:49. > :25:54.a top rate 50p tax for Scotland raised? Up to 10 million, depending
:25:55. > :25:58.where you would have any change but every single penny would go into
:25:59. > :26:06.educational attainment. When the Conservatives cut the tax rate to
:26:07. > :26:10.45p, the Treasury were projecting it would cost ?3 billion a year to
:26:11. > :26:17.satisfy. That was for the whole of the UK, so 60-110,000,000 is a lot
:26:18. > :26:26.of money we can use to cut the educational attainment gap. Why is
:26:27. > :26:30.Jeremy Corbyn not cutting much ice north of the border? He has won a
:26:31. > :26:34.significant mandate within the party, he needs to win that now
:26:35. > :26:41.within the country but what we are concentrating on now is Kezia
:26:42. > :26:49.Dugdale as a new leader. I am interesting that you stress all the
:26:50. > :26:58.time Kezia Dugdale, is Jeremy Corbyn and asset or a liability in May? He
:26:59. > :27:01.is an asset because she wants us to invest in public services, he wants
:27:02. > :27:07.to use the powers in the Scottish bill to transform the Scottish
:27:08. > :27:15.Parliament... So why are the polls, if you have got Kezia Dugdale and
:27:16. > :27:21.Jeremy Corbyn doing all the right things, why are the polls so dire
:27:22. > :27:25.for you in Scotland? We will fight for every single vote and seat, we
:27:26. > :27:29.fight to win every election but whilst we are talking about polls
:27:30. > :27:32.and not holding the Scottish Government to account for a dreadful
:27:33. > :27:37.record in Government for eight years and not talking about positive
:27:38. > :27:41.policies being put forward, we will not get any traction in the polls.
:27:42. > :27:46.Let's get this campaign onto real issues that ordinary Scots want to
:27:47. > :27:50.talk about on the doorsteps, which is about holding the Government to
:27:51. > :27:54.account for a dreadful track record, and get some policies on there that
:27:55. > :28:00.says to the people the Scottish Labour Party has changed and we can
:28:01. > :28:02.talk about tomorrow's Scotland and how we can transform people's lives.
:28:03. > :28:05.Thank you. The huge influx of migrants
:28:06. > :28:08.into the EU from Syria and elsewhere is putting the future
:28:09. > :28:10.of the EU in "grave danger", that was the stark warning
:28:11. > :28:12.from the French Prime Minister Tomorrow, EU interior ministers
:28:13. > :28:16.will discuss a possible two-year suspension of the Schengen system
:28:17. > :28:17.of passport-free travel. It all comes as David Cameron seeks
:28:18. > :28:20.to put the finishing touches to a new deal for the UK
:28:21. > :28:23.inside the EU before But how is the migrant crisis
:28:24. > :28:28.affecting his renegotiation? Since January 2015, nearly 1.1
:28:29. > :28:31.million migrants have arrived in Europe, the vast
:28:32. > :28:33.majority coming by sea. The International Monetary Fund
:28:34. > :28:37.estimates that nearly 4 million migrants will have reached
:28:38. > :28:43.the EU by the end of 2017. Tomorrow, EU interior ministers
:28:44. > :28:45.will discuss a possible suspension of the passport-free Schengen area
:28:46. > :28:48.and the re-introduction of border The EU is also considering tearing
:28:49. > :28:57.up the so-called Dublin Convention and introducing a new dispersal
:28:58. > :28:59.scheme to distribute migrants more It's an extra headache
:29:00. > :29:06.for David Cameron as he seeks to renegotiate the terms
:29:07. > :29:11.of our membership of the EU. The Prime Minister's preferred
:29:12. > :29:14.option is a four-year ban on new EU migrant workers claiming
:29:15. > :29:18.in-work benefits. But that's unlikely to satisfy many
:29:19. > :29:22.Conservative backbenchers. Former Cabinet minister Liam Fox,
:29:23. > :29:26.who has already said he will campaign to leave the EU,
:29:27. > :29:28.said yesterday that he "didn't expect a British prime minister
:29:29. > :29:32.to have to take the political begging bowl around the capitals
:29:33. > :29:35.of Europe just to change our own Over the next three weekends
:29:36. > :29:42.we will be staging three debates Joining me now to discuss
:29:43. > :29:47.immigration and the EU are the Ukip MEP Diane James, who's campaigning
:29:48. > :29:49.for Britain to leave the EU, and the Conservative MP
:29:50. > :30:06.Damian Green, who supports The French prime ministers as the
:30:07. > :30:12.future the EU is in grave danger, so why would we want to stay in it? --
:30:13. > :30:15.Prime Minister says. It is useful to as, it makes us safer and more
:30:16. > :30:19.secure and more prosperous and therefore it is worth saving, from
:30:20. > :30:25.our perspective and to the other member countries. Why does it make
:30:26. > :30:28.us more secure? The way that we cooperate with other European
:30:29. > :30:32.countries, the European institutions, things like the
:30:33. > :30:37.European arrest warrant, data share, these are very useful to our police
:30:38. > :30:41.and security services. We share data with the United States, as well. But
:30:42. > :30:46.not on the same automatic basis as we do with Europe. There is
:30:47. > :30:51.automatic sharing of intelligence between Britain and the United
:30:52. > :30:55.States. There is can we have a separate treaty with them, it is not
:30:56. > :30:59.as automatic and quick. -- there is, we have a separate treaty. We can
:31:00. > :31:07.change information within minutes with other European countries, and
:31:08. > :31:13.it takes days and weeks with other countries, and that means in cases
:31:14. > :31:17.of terrorism and sadly we live in a dangerous world, with global
:31:18. > :31:25.terrorism, that kind of European cooperation is increasingly
:31:26. > :31:28.important. Diane, we face a migration crisis, what is your
:31:29. > :31:35.solution, to turn Britain into a fortress Britain? No, it isn't, but
:31:36. > :31:40.it is to regain border control for the United Kingdom, and that is a
:31:41. > :31:44.position endorsed by a number of countries, and number of member
:31:45. > :31:48.states across the EU, you have five countries which every imposed border
:31:49. > :31:52.controls to some extent. There is still free movement of people.
:31:53. > :31:55.France said last week they will extend their border control, their
:31:56. > :31:59.passport control as an emergency measure because of the terrorist
:32:00. > :32:05.attacks in Paris. Border control is needed because under the current
:32:06. > :32:09.system freedom of movement, people, services, transport, that also means
:32:10. > :32:13.freedom of movement for terrorists and weapons, that come from the
:32:14. > :32:17.Balkan states. We don't have border controls? Yes, but not sufficient,
:32:18. > :32:22.if someone comes in from the Mediterranean states or from the
:32:23. > :32:27.Balkan states, they have gained entry into the European member zone.
:32:28. > :32:35.They can't then move around. If they get their passport, ultimately...
:32:36. > :32:39.That can take ten years. It is five years in Germany, it can be granted
:32:40. > :32:43.sooner if the Dublin agreement is changed and asylum seekers get a
:32:44. > :32:48.faster processing, they can then come to the United Kingdom. It is
:32:49. > :32:52.not five years in Germany, it is a comment if you have a criminal
:32:53. > :32:56.record, you can't get one, and the things that Niger Farage was saying
:32:57. > :33:03.about the scenes in Cologne, that was wrong. -- Nigel. The out
:33:04. > :33:07.campaign is saying that border controls are what we need, strong
:33:08. > :33:10.border controls, and pulling out of Europe would have the practical
:33:11. > :33:14.effect, our border controls which act have a, thanks to the treaty
:33:15. > :33:19.with the French government, they would certainly come back to Dover
:33:20. > :33:23.-- our border controls which we have at Calais. Migrants would find it
:33:24. > :33:29.much easier to get to this country and claim asylum here. But if they
:33:30. > :33:35.couldn't get in, they did not qualify, we would have the power to
:33:36. > :33:39.deport them? We were, after a legal process, but they would be stopped
:33:40. > :33:43.not at Calais, it would be at Dover, when they are in Britain, and once
:33:44. > :33:47.they are here they can claim asylum and because we have proper legal
:33:48. > :33:51.processes it takes a lot of time and expense to deal with that. He has
:33:52. > :33:55.all the accused me of getting my facts wrong, but he has got his
:33:56. > :33:59.facts wrong. The agreement in terms of stationing our teams and our
:34:00. > :34:04.support staff and control, in the French ports, that is a France UK
:34:05. > :34:08.agreement, it has nothing to do with the European Union. If you are
:34:09. > :34:14.suggesting that the agreement between France and the United
:34:15. > :34:16.Kingdom gets torn up because we leave the EU, that is fanciful and
:34:17. > :34:22.misleading and I don't agree with you. France signed the treatment
:34:23. > :34:26.with us as a fellow member of the EU and the French interior minister has
:34:27. > :34:29.said that they would look at the treaty, of course it would be at
:34:30. > :34:35.risk, do you think the people of Calais want that camp on their
:34:36. > :34:40.doorstep? Of course not. The French are doing us a favour. How would the
:34:41. > :34:46.renegotiation by the Prime Minister help address any of this? The area
:34:47. > :34:50.of renegotiation and this is about the extra pull factor that comes
:34:51. > :34:55.from the perception that the British benefits system is easier to access
:34:56. > :35:00.compared with other countries, and therefore there are people coming
:35:01. > :35:03.here simply to make the benefits system and I think what many people
:35:04. > :35:08.think about immigration, they are moral axed about people coming here
:35:09. > :35:12.to work and pay taxes but they don't like people coming to use the
:35:13. > :35:18.welfare system -- they are more relaxed. But it has been said this
:35:19. > :35:23.will not have a big impact, you might marginalise one pull factor,
:35:24. > :35:27.but with rises in the national minimum wage, you have increased the
:35:28. > :35:33.pull factor on the other hand. It's a boiler fairness, that is what --
:35:34. > :35:38.that is a boiler fairness, that is what people want... It is unlikely
:35:39. > :35:44.to have a big impact. This will have very little impact on the numbers. I
:35:45. > :35:48.think people can make a distinction between those who are coming here to
:35:49. > :35:54.work, who benefit our economy and benefit all of us. But we have
:35:55. > :35:56.agreed it is unlikely, even if it is fair, it is unlikely to have any
:35:57. > :36:04.impact on the numbers. We don't know. The OBR has had a good guess.
:36:05. > :36:10.They are guessing, it is a guess. Nigel Farage said he would cut
:36:11. > :36:15.immigration even if that meant lower economic growth, do you agree? There
:36:16. > :36:22.are two parts to your question, George Osborne has predicated his
:36:23. > :36:26.fiscal strategy on high numbers of immigration, but we have done this
:36:27. > :36:29.on individuals who come here on a points system to deliver real value
:36:30. > :36:35.to this country, who are not subsidised by the tax credit option
:36:36. > :36:40.and who actually meet the needs that we have in the United Kingdom, and
:36:41. > :36:45.currently, as we know, we want engineers and medics and nurses and
:36:46. > :36:48.lawyers. Ukip strategy has never been to stop those individuals
:36:49. > :36:53.coming, but what we are saying, the impact of low skilled immigration on
:36:54. > :36:59.this country is negative. That is our position. Even if it meant slow
:37:00. > :37:06.economic growth, you would still cut the numbers? It would not mean
:37:07. > :37:10.slower economic growth. We have made our position very clear in terms of
:37:11. > :37:16.the value of the money that we would not be paying in terms of membership
:37:17. > :37:20.of the EU, coming back to the United Kingdom's economy, and balancing the
:37:21. > :37:25.whole position, that would be a positive for us as a country. The
:37:26. > :37:30.Prime Minister has refused to leave a group of 40 Eurosceptic
:37:31. > :37:36.backbenchers in the Conservative Party, who want to asking to do much
:37:37. > :37:39.more. Should he not make them? The Prime Minister meets backbenchers
:37:40. > :37:43.all the time. He has not meant this group, they wrote to him in November
:37:44. > :37:48.and he has not met them. -- he has not met this group. Anyone who would
:37:49. > :37:52.like to meet the Prime Minister has ample opportunities to do so, I'm a
:37:53. > :37:56.backbencher, I can speak to the Prime Minister, and all of these
:37:57. > :38:02.points have been raised. It is possible that this story is slightly
:38:03. > :38:04.overblown. Thank you very much. We will be coming back to these stories
:38:05. > :38:06.in the weeks ahead. And next week we'll be debating
:38:07. > :38:09.the economic effects of leaving It's just gone 11.35,
:38:10. > :38:13.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:14. > :38:15.in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:38:16. > :38:32.in Northern Ireland. With the welfare mitigation
:38:33. > :38:33.issue seemingly resolved, Or have politicians
:38:34. > :38:39.abandoned the vulnerable? That's what I'll be asking
:38:40. > :38:42.Sinn Fein and the SDLP. Plus, as Presbyterians discuss
:38:43. > :38:47.the 1916 anniversaries, the Republic's Minister responsible
:38:48. > :38:49.for the commemorations reveals her plans for
:38:50. > :38:51.this landmark year. And with their thoughts
:38:52. > :38:54.on all of that and more - Fionnuala O'Connor
:38:55. > :39:02.and Paul Gosling... It once threatened the existence
:39:03. > :39:06.of Stormont itself, but now the welfare issue has apparently
:39:07. > :39:09.been put to bed with the publication of a report this week outlining how
:39:10. > :39:12.mitigations will work. While the report was broadly
:39:13. > :39:15.welcomed, it's clear some benefit recipients could lose out under
:39:16. > :39:19.planned welfare changes. With me now is Sinn Fein's John
:39:20. > :39:22.O'Dowd and the SDLP's Alex Sinn Fein's line was always that no
:39:23. > :39:27.benefit recipient would be allowed It's clear people are going to lose
:39:28. > :39:42.out despite those pledges... We were faced with a scenario. The
:39:43. > :39:51.British government were going to take over welfare reform, the role
:39:52. > :39:56.of the executive, it would have collapsed, so Sinn Fein have made a
:39:57. > :40:05.correct decision. Concluding the peace process, should we collapse
:40:06. > :40:12.the executive? You don't see that you were going to do that at one
:40:13. > :40:24.point. Passing the legislation, more to do with timing than policy. In
:40:25. > :40:31.terms of the journey, it is better balance with local politicians,
:40:32. > :40:39.boundaries of appeals, and the report has set out it the measures,
:40:40. > :40:40.existing nowhere else. You over promised.
:40:41. > :40:42.Gerry Adams said in January 2015, one year ago...
:40:43. > :40:45."No one will have any benefit reduced which is under the authority
:40:46. > :40:49.That was our key point on this issue."
:40:50. > :40:51.Conor Murphy, December 2014: "What we've done is ensure
:40:52. > :40:54.that those who suffer will be picked up by a system devised by us -
:40:55. > :41:08.What we wanted to achieve, it has to be against the political reality. We
:41:09. > :41:16.were involved in negotiation, with other parties, few of them committed
:41:17. > :41:23.to bringing forward proposals, the issue has become so toxic, it was on
:41:24. > :41:28.the day job collapsing political institutions. In the broader sense,
:41:29. > :41:42.protecting public services, to maintain institutions. Did Sinn Fein
:41:43. > :41:51.overpromise? If every person said that nobody was going to be losing
:41:52. > :42:05.out, but now people are going to be, they overpromised. But it is the
:42:06. > :42:12.preposterous idea, to travel, it is not a matter of policy, because of
:42:13. > :42:26.that decision Sinn Fein, signing up to these benefit freezers, the Mike
:42:27. > :42:35.-- freezes and this week, charity groups have been arguing against the
:42:36. > :42:44.proposals, so not only as a bizarre place, in the year of 1916,
:42:45. > :42:48.Republicans giving power back to London, it was the technicality, and
:42:49. > :42:56.it has impact on citizens, when we could have control. The more
:42:57. > :43:11.interesting question, what did the SDLP deliver? Nothing. Welcoming the
:43:12. > :43:18.report. SDLP voted against the fresh start, and last week, against the
:43:19. > :43:31.budget. Spending half ?1 billion, protecting citizens. Those measures,
:43:32. > :43:42.scaremongering, it rests with the assembly. All powers rest with the
:43:43. > :43:49.assembly. It is difficult to argue against what has been said, you want
:43:50. > :44:03.your cake and eat it. You did not vote for the budget? I support the
:44:04. > :44:15.work. I support what she did. Put meat on proposals. Last year, and
:44:16. > :44:19.the welfare reform discussions, the DUP and Sinn Fein voted them down.
:44:20. > :44:30.That included the abolition of the bedroom tax. So on. It is not the
:44:31. > :44:41.case, to pretend that what Sinn Fein agreed, is about timelines, it is
:44:42. > :44:47.about reductions, taking money out of the pockets. But be have tried to
:44:48. > :44:52.mitigate those difficulties, and the best possible way, with as much
:44:53. > :45:00.money as is available? It is easy to sit on the sidelines. They are
:45:01. > :45:11.having to deal with the issues. We welcome what has been said. How
:45:12. > :45:20.would you fund it? You voted against the budget. No alternative. Out of
:45:21. > :45:29.the current budget. You didn't vote for it! We produce an alternative.
:45:30. > :45:35.That does not mean, they oppose every measure. If you want to see
:45:36. > :45:43.what we have produced, looked at the documents, in the recent
:45:44. > :45:49.negotiations, the most extensive, unlike Sinn Fein, handing over now
:45:50. > :46:02.documents. Do not be misled. Sinn Fein are trying to sell the past on
:46:03. > :46:06.welfare, surrendering to London, creating a fog around the fact that
:46:07. > :46:11.when it comes to people in Northern Ireland, not as much mitigation as
:46:12. > :46:14.promised. It does nothing about the proposals that they have signed up
:46:15. > :46:24.to, going to Westminster, impacting on policy. At no time during that
:46:25. > :46:38.lengthy contribution, as he outlined how the SDLP would treat the
:46:39. > :46:55.situation. Why is this happening? Sinn Fein step forward, how are they
:46:56. > :47:05.being funded? Let's broaden this. You promised people, a great deal.
:47:06. > :47:11.You have deliver less. You could be punished for that. It is a lot less
:47:12. > :47:17.than people thought they were going to be. The deal that people are
:47:18. > :47:23.going to get, it is good to last 12 months. The electorate is going to
:47:24. > :47:30.make decisions. Based on informed debate. That is what democracy is
:47:31. > :47:35.about. Sinn Fein will defend the position. The mitigations, set out
:47:36. > :47:43.for 12 months, but the most important part, that the sanctions
:47:44. > :47:50.being imposed, in England, having the most devastating impact. What we
:47:51. > :48:04.have introduced, it is a support package, to have an appeals process,
:48:05. > :48:21.laptop, -- backed up... It buys people time. You also, within the
:48:22. > :48:30.SDLP, could be punished. In out approach to welfare. No. All of what
:48:31. > :48:41.has just been opened, Intel's mitigation, it has no impact upon
:48:42. > :48:51.the welfare changes coming across, because of the bill. Falsehood.
:48:52. > :48:59.Secondly, a lot of the principles of the proposals, established in the
:49:00. > :49:05.chamber, one years ago, when we said we should have protection for people
:49:06. > :49:18.on benefit conflicts, changes in the benefit caps, all of those... DUP
:49:19. > :49:22.and Sinn Fein voted them down. So when people make the choice, they
:49:23. > :49:30.will have to remember who flip flopped. And those who brought
:49:31. > :49:39.forward crafted proposals. Those who protect the devolution settlement.
:49:40. > :49:44.Those opposed to benefit freezes and those who endorsed them. That is why
:49:45. > :49:58.Martin McGuinness, going back to Derry. That is a different issue.
:49:59. > :50:04.You can fool some people some time, not all the people all the time.
:50:05. > :50:20.People are going to make up their own mind.
:50:21. > :50:31.Do you think the recommendations make sense? She is a good socialist,
:50:32. > :50:39.producing reports, in 1981, on single parents, battered women. Both
:50:40. > :50:52.of them, the most deprived sections, that long ago. She produced a solid
:50:53. > :51:00.piece of work, a woman in a male dominated world. And she has done
:51:01. > :51:13.this well. But this question, it is a distraction. Gerry Adams used that
:51:14. > :51:24.world. In that heated discussion, as John's voice got louder, Alex Atwood
:51:25. > :51:28.struggled, that the proposals, related to those documents, neither
:51:29. > :51:34.of them can make the case that is going to matter on the doorsteps.
:51:35. > :51:40.Especially if people are already feeling hit by cuts. It is
:51:41. > :51:47.describing efforts, to mitigate the situation, that the administration
:51:48. > :51:52.can do little about. Do you get a sense, it is going to become an
:51:53. > :52:08.issue on the doorsteps, and that people understand precisely what it
:52:09. > :52:19.is, Eileen Evason? Eileen Evason's report this excellent, but it does
:52:20. > :52:22.not achieve, the impossible, if you promised the impossible you cannot
:52:23. > :52:27.deliver. That is going to be a political issue. It is a
:52:28. > :52:34.distraction, from unionism, that is what they should be concentrating
:52:35. > :52:43.on. Unionists said that we have no choice, Tory policy, we ought to
:52:44. > :52:47.stay in line with Britain. They have moved, the bedroom tax has gone,
:52:48. > :52:53.this is the sort of thing that Sinn Fein should be concentrating on, but
:52:54. > :53:00.these conservative policies, accepted to a degree, by all of them
:53:01. > :53:04.because they had to. But also mitigated, DUP moved from defending
:53:05. > :53:15.that. It is going to make for some interesting battles. A new
:53:16. > :53:22.constituency, west Belfast as well? Absolutely. Interesting political
:53:23. > :53:24.battles. Large levels of poverty. I think people are going to be angry,
:53:25. > :53:28.about these unfathomable promises. Next to the Easter Rising
:53:29. > :53:32.and the Somme - part of 'our shared narrative across this shared land' -
:53:33. > :53:34.the words of Fine Gael Minister Heather Humphreys on a visit
:53:35. > :53:42.to Belfast this week. The Minister, who's overseeing
:53:43. > :53:44.the centenary of the 1916 Rising, has a few shared narratives herself,
:53:45. > :53:47.with a grand-father who signed Nevertheless, I asked her if her
:53:48. > :53:52.notion of a 'shared history' isn't a little idealistic when there
:53:53. > :54:06.are so many competing I live on the border. I am conscious
:54:07. > :54:11.of sensitivities. But it's 100 years ago. We should hear the stories. The
:54:12. > :54:25.historical facts. We have a lot of misinformation. A lot of people came
:54:26. > :54:33.forward. They didn't realise great grand uncles were in the war. It is
:54:34. > :54:42.about the personal stories. Impact. 1916. And we have the chance, to
:54:43. > :54:47.look back. Can you see why some people are uncomfortable, with
:54:48. > :54:51.anything that looks like a celebration of rebuilding, against
:54:52. > :54:57.the British presence? That is one thing I want to be freed about. This
:54:58. > :55:02.is not a celebration. It is not triumphalism. It is a commemoration.
:55:03. > :55:09.Remembering, listening to the stories. There's going to be a wall.
:55:10. > :55:16.With all the names, of people who lost lives in the Easter Rising.
:55:17. > :55:27.Many civilians, members of the British Army, a lot of those were
:55:28. > :55:34.Irish. Stories to be told. And I think when people reflect, you get a
:55:35. > :55:37.better understanding. Northern Ireland's new First Minister has
:55:38. > :55:45.expressed reservations, about taking part in formal name originates, of
:55:46. > :55:47.1916. She is going to attend an event, to discuss historical
:55:48. > :55:54.context, but will not formally commemorate what has happened, can
:55:55. > :56:00.you see how she has come to that view? I respect that, but I am glad
:56:01. > :56:05.that she said that she will be coming, having a debate, I am
:56:06. > :56:15.pleased and I'm sure we will have many events that she will be able to
:56:16. > :56:18.attend. Comfortable in attending. If a teacher comes up with the right
:56:19. > :56:31.invitation, she will accept. There is that going to happen? The two
:56:32. > :56:38.Bishops... They have come together. They are going to have an event,
:56:39. > :56:48.bringing the children, both sides of the border, together. It is an
:56:49. > :56:53.event, involving art, music, and they are going to be telling the
:56:54. > :57:01.stories, starting from 1916. It goes to the Good Friday agreement. That
:57:02. > :57:10.is going to involve children. That, for example, is one event that both
:57:11. > :57:17.of us would love to be attending. The battle of the Somme centenary.
:57:18. > :57:23.July. Do you see that being commemorated? By weight
:57:24. > :57:31.cross-sections. So many Irishmen, died in that battle. Perhaps that
:57:32. > :57:38.could be another event, that people could come with us, and joint, to
:57:39. > :57:52.commemorate those who most lights. -- lives. The Irish state failed
:57:53. > :57:59.when they returned from the trenches? Are you having to correct
:58:00. > :58:09.mistakes by predecessors? They came home, to a different Ireland. I was
:58:10. > :58:17.agonising, two years ago, and this man I knew... His name was Kevin. He
:58:18. > :58:22.said that was a fantastic day. It means so much to me. Tears down his
:58:23. > :58:33.face. means so much to me. Tears down his
:58:34. > :58:36.came back from the world war, and never spoke about it. He said a
:58:37. > :58:44.wrong had been made right. That is what is important. You seem to
:58:45. > :58:48.personify the complexity of identity, you described yourself as
:58:49. > :58:57.a pro-Irish republican, attending orange order parades, that this
:58:58. > :59:07.complex? I attend cultural events, in my constituency, bands come and
:59:08. > :59:12.play. From Northern Ireland, Monaghan, it is a cultural event
:59:13. > :59:17.that I absolutely enjoyed. People come from all traditions, that is
:59:18. > :59:20.inclusive. How do you think politicians are doing, in Northern
:59:21. > :59:30.Ireland? Do you think the meeting enough of an effort? It takes time.
:59:31. > :59:42.We are making progress all the time. It is by going to these events, GAA
:59:43. > :59:49.matches, dispelling myths. I would encourage people to come together,
:59:50. > :59:51.go to different events. We have a lot more in common than we have that
:59:52. > :59:52.separates us. Heather Humphreys flying the flag
:59:53. > :59:54.for cross-community encounter. Now, let's take a look back
:59:55. > :00:11.at the political week in 60 seconds Martin McGuinness on the move. He
:00:12. > :00:17.will be running, as Sinn Fein target more assembly seats. DUP made it
:00:18. > :00:24.clear Northern Ireland must be leaving the European Union. We would
:00:25. > :00:29.be better outside. The budget has been voted through for the next
:00:30. > :00:34.year. This represents a balanced budget, no level of overcommitment,
:00:35. > :00:41.for many years. Changes to the welfare system moving closer. This
:00:42. > :00:48.would mean Northern Ireland is better prepared, to enable
:00:49. > :00:52.vulnerable people to avoid hardship. Firefighters came to Stormont, to
:00:53. > :01:00.protest against cuts, and the finance minister was reminded of his
:01:01. > :01:02.roots. The financial prudence, except when it comes to considering
:01:03. > :01:18.projects themselves. And let's have a final word
:01:19. > :01:19.from Fionnuala and Paul... candidate in the hot seat, until
:01:20. > :01:27.then, back to you, Andrew. Can David Cameron keep his party
:01:28. > :01:32.together in the run-up Will the SNP stymie the PM's
:01:33. > :01:35.plans for a summer vote? And who will go along to
:01:36. > :01:52.John McDonnell's economics roadshow? Nick, Damian Green downplayed the 40
:01:53. > :01:58.Eurosceptics who have written to the Prime Minister, asking for a
:01:59. > :02:02.meeting. Is he right? Is there a serious division for the Tories? It
:02:03. > :02:05.was a very diplomatic response from Damian Green, but what Downing
:02:06. > :02:09.Street would say about the letter from John Barron, what is the point
:02:10. > :02:12.of meeting him and his 40 merry friends, because I want to get
:02:13. > :02:16.Britain out and they have always wanted to do so and the demands they
:02:17. > :02:20.are tabling in that letter, to have primacy of the UK Parliament over EU
:02:21. > :02:26.law is not in the negotiation and is not going to happen, but there is a
:02:27. > :02:29.port in point. David Cameron was dismissive of John Barron in the
:02:30. > :02:33.House of Commons and he needs to maybe occasionally show a bit more
:02:34. > :02:38.charm and listening to those kind of people. -- important point. They are
:02:39. > :02:41.on the other side of the prime Minster, but he has got to manage
:02:42. > :02:45.the process carefully and he needs to avoid a civil war, and he can
:02:46. > :02:51.avoid that if all sides are respected in this debate. Presumably
:02:52. > :02:57.the 40 that signed our hard-core Eurosceptic but there are more
:02:58. > :03:02.Eurosceptics. Even if David Cameron gets all of what he is asking for,
:03:03. > :03:07.how many Conservative MPs will still want to come out? Going back to the
:03:08. > :03:14.John Barenboim, the 40 that have signed that letter, Downing Street
:03:15. > :03:18.have put them to one side -- John Barron point. The battle for the
:03:19. > :03:28.party, what do you do with those, maybe a third of the party, that
:03:29. > :03:31.would be minded to leave, maybe 100-100 and 50 MPs, George Osborne
:03:32. > :03:34.was talking about emergency brakes on legislation, if things are coming
:03:35. > :03:40.through from Brussels which the British don't want. They still think
:03:41. > :03:44.that the negotiation really is in play and what we have to do is try
:03:45. > :03:50.and pick off moderate Eurosceptics and give them a package which they
:03:51. > :03:53.can get behind and then we need to accept that there will be 40
:03:54. > :03:58.hard-core people that we could never placate. In the David Cameron
:03:59. > :04:02.nightmare, that is the potential backdrop to the referendum, the
:04:03. > :04:07.French Prime Minister has said Europe is in grave danger and we
:04:08. > :04:11.have had President task of the council say that we have only got a
:04:12. > :04:15.couple of months to sort out the immigration issue -- Donald Tusk.
:04:16. > :04:20.The Dutch Prime Minister has given warnings, as well. If there's a
:04:21. > :04:24.sense that Europe is falling especially regarding migration,
:04:25. > :04:30.Schengen is swept away, as it might be tomorrow, that is not a way to
:04:31. > :04:33.win a referendum. It is a huge advantage for the Brexit campaign
:04:34. > :04:37.and it distinguishes them from their predecessors of 20 years ago,
:04:38. > :04:41.leaving the EU back then was seen as a pessimistic thing to do, but now
:04:42. > :04:45.you can almost support Brexit because you think, why chain
:04:46. > :04:51.yourself to a continent which is losing, when there's so much
:04:52. > :04:54.dynamism in the world elsewhere? The characteristic of the Brexit
:04:55. > :04:57.campaign is the challenge David Cameron has got to summer, it cannot
:04:58. > :05:04.say they are entirely insular any more. -- has got to surmount. I
:05:05. > :05:11.thought the internal Tory problem with the explosive, if not a big
:05:12. > :05:14.split, but like a rolling crisis from the 1990s, but I no longer
:05:15. > :05:18.think that is true, the fact they know they can expect to be in
:05:19. > :05:23.government until at least 2025, they can maintain basic adhesion because
:05:24. > :05:29.of the weakness of the Labour Party and that is a contrast with the 90s
:05:30. > :05:33.-- basic cohesion. Cameron will look like he is losing control, but there
:05:34. > :05:39.will not be anything existential going on for the party. We believe
:05:40. > :05:43.the government is anxious to get it out of the way by the end of June,
:05:44. > :05:47.may be the first week of July. Nicola Sturgeon said some
:05:48. > :05:55.interesting things on the Andrew Marr show, about the timetable for
:05:56. > :05:58.the referendum. We had a negative feeling campaign from the no
:05:59. > :06:03.campaign and they almost lost, in the referendum for Europe, the
:06:04. > :06:07.campaigns are much closer to start with, and if the in campaign falls
:06:08. > :06:15.into the trap of the no campaign I fear it will lose. Nicola Sturgeon
:06:16. > :06:19.has said that she does not want a June referendum and she feels that
:06:20. > :06:23.is too soon. You can say, that is the view of the First Minister, she
:06:24. > :06:29.doesn't have a vote in parliament, but it have more significance. I was
:06:30. > :06:35.briefed last week by senior Scottish Nationalist who said this, "Many
:06:36. > :06:42.conservatives will not want a June referendum and the risk epics want
:06:43. > :06:48.more time to layout their case -- Eurosceptics want more time to
:06:49. > :06:56.layout their case". The Scottish Nationalists will not help to vote
:06:57. > :07:00.by voting for a June referendum. The SNP could try and turn this into a
:07:01. > :07:04.vote in the house and then it depends on what Labour do, do they
:07:05. > :07:08.want to have it in June or later? I think the Eurosceptics are so
:07:09. > :07:15.focused on trying to get this referendum through, I don't think
:07:16. > :07:19.them as long as they feel they have the campaign in time that they want,
:07:20. > :07:26.the four-month period, I think they will go for it. I'm not sure that is
:07:27. > :07:31.true. Given the divisions in the Eurosceptics side at the moment, and
:07:32. > :07:36.the out campaign, I think they need longer to get there ducks in a row
:07:37. > :07:43.and they feel the best time for them to fight is after there has been
:07:44. > :07:46.another major migration crisis in the summer, people will not on their
:07:47. > :07:55.side of the ardent when that happens. That might be true. -- of
:07:56. > :08:00.the argument. But they cannot argue for a delay in some ways, but I do
:08:01. > :08:03.feel that Nicola Sturgeon's intervention is significant and the
:08:04. > :08:06.pressure on the Prime Minister to listen to what she is saying, will
:08:07. > :08:09.not so much come in parliament, it could come from the electoral
:08:10. > :08:13.commission, which has already said they cannot have the referendum in
:08:14. > :08:19.May as the same time as the devolved elections, and if you have Nicola
:08:20. > :08:22.Sturgeon, Arlene Foster, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, and
:08:23. > :08:26.Karen Jones can be First Minister of Wales Coulibaly said they think this
:08:27. > :08:31.is over complicating -- First Minister of Wales, if they all said
:08:32. > :08:36.they think this is over, catering, because it would happen at the same
:08:37. > :08:40.time as the devolved elections -- if they all said this is
:08:41. > :08:45.overcompensated. That would be significant, we could be bouncing
:08:46. > :08:49.into September. They have said they do not want the overlap, there
:08:50. > :08:53.should be a clear gap between the referendum campaign and the local
:08:54. > :09:00.elections, the assembly come and the Parliamentary elections in Scotland.
:09:01. > :09:02.They have a low view of the ability of the electorate to distinguish
:09:03. > :09:11.between elections, I do think Nicolas -- Nicola Sturgeon is an
:09:12. > :09:16.obstacle, but the biggest obstacle will be David Cameron and what he
:09:17. > :09:23.can get from the EU. You don't think it will be a done deal pretty much
:09:24. > :09:29.they are putting a lot of weight white -- you don't think it will be
:09:30. > :09:32.a done deal? They are putting a lot of weight on one summit, but the
:09:33. > :09:36.next summit that matters, it only takes one delay for us to move
:09:37. > :09:40.beyond June and then into September. I thought 2017 would be more likely,
:09:41. > :09:52.I have slightly revised that view, but I don't think June is possible.
:09:53. > :10:00.We have leave, and several out campaigns, and we have got one which
:10:01. > :10:05.is called grassroots out. Liam Fox, Conservative, Nigel Farage, Kate
:10:06. > :10:12.Hoey from Labour was there, it was launched yesterday. At some stage
:10:13. > :10:15.they have got to consult them if they want to be serious and marshal
:10:16. > :10:21.their resources, they have got to have a single campaign? And by law
:10:22. > :10:25.they have got through, the electoral commission is going to have two
:10:26. > :10:30.designate a campaign on either side. It is pretty clear that the inside
:10:31. > :10:33.are coalescing around the Britain stronger in Europe group, but on the
:10:34. > :10:36.outside there is not that agreement and there is feuding between these
:10:37. > :10:40.groups and they're going to have to reach agreement. The problem they
:10:41. > :10:44.have, who is going to lead them? Nigel Lawson is a key figure and he
:10:45. > :10:48.says they will get a senior Cabinet minister, but I said the most senior
:10:49. > :10:52.Cabinet minister who will go for Brexit, in Duncan Smith, do his own
:10:53. > :10:59.thing, which leaves you with Chris Grayling -- Iain Duncan Smith. And
:11:00. > :11:06.also Theresa Villiers. They will go up against the leader of the in
:11:07. > :11:10.campaign who is someone called David Cameron, and so they really do need
:11:11. > :11:19.to get unity. Vote Labour say they are more grown-up, -- vote leave say
:11:20. > :11:23.they are more grown-up, for example. Some are said to me the other day
:11:24. > :11:29.that Chris Grayling's view is that many senior figures in the party
:11:30. > :11:32.should be voices. In other words he was suggesting he did not want to
:11:33. > :11:35.leave and they would not be one senior Cabinet minister that was
:11:36. > :11:39.going to champion it which gives them another problem. The
:11:40. > :11:46.organisational, factional differences make much less
:11:47. > :11:49.difference in who you have as your voice, it could be a very prominent
:11:50. > :11:58.businessperson, for example, the head of a major company. Who knows
:11:59. > :12:01.how to bend opinion. That is not true of many business people. They
:12:02. > :12:07.could talk about the economic risk. The state in campaign was launched
:12:08. > :12:17.by Stuart Rose. And it was a disaster. It was a disastrous launch
:12:18. > :12:24.will stop you going to John McDonnell's economic seminar? I'm
:12:25. > :12:28.washing my hair. He was to get out of the -- he says he would like to
:12:29. > :12:28.get out of the Westminster bubble, he has only
:12:29. > :12:35.get out of the Westminster bubble, he has only got to the West End, but
:12:36. > :12:40.he has got out there. You don't want to come? There are many people
:12:41. > :12:44.worried about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in the Labour Party, but
:12:45. > :12:48.they are encouraged about the seminars, the economics panel, he
:12:49. > :12:55.has got an incredibly serious group of people, is opening up these
:12:56. > :12:58.seminars and they are encouraged. There was a good piece in the Sunday
:12:59. > :13:01.Times about whether there is a good deal with Google and whether this is
:13:02. > :13:08.such a good deal for the British taxpayer. I can feel I'm going to be
:13:09. > :13:11.on my own. Anyway, it has sold out, there is no room for you.
:13:12. > :13:16.Jo Coburn will be back with the Daily Politics
:13:17. > :13:20.And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday
:13:21. > :13:51.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:13:52. > :13:55.bought on the streets of east Belfast,
:13:56. > :14:04.How can it be credible leadership did not know?
:14:05. > :14:09.The mistakes made in this case would have enormous consequences.