:00:36. > :00:41.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.Ed Balls has gone socialist and fiscal Conservative in one speech.
:00:45. > :00:49.He promises to balance the biggest bit of the budget. And to bring back
:00:50. > :00:53.the 50p top tax rate. Political masterstroke, or a return to old
:00:54. > :00:56.Labour? If you go to work by public
:00:57. > :00:59.transport, chances are the price of your ticket has just gone up -
:01:00. > :01:03.again. We'll speak to Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin. He's
:01:04. > :01:06.our Sunday Interview. And it's been another wet week
:01:07. > :01:11.across much of the UK, but what's the outlook according to this man?
:01:12. > :01:12.This morning.This morning. Held in recent years by party veterans
:01:13. > :01:18.And coming up here... recent years by party veterans like
:01:19. > :01:21.And coming up here... Does Stormont need an opposition?
:01:22. > :01:24.The Ulster Unionist leader has already said no, so why is Lord
:01:25. > :01:39.Empey proposing the idea at Westminster? Find out in
:01:40. > :01:43.And with me - as always - the political panel so fresh-faced,
:01:44. > :01:46.entertaining and downright popular they make Justin Bieber look like a
:01:47. > :01:49.boring old has-been just desperate to get your attention. Nick Watt,
:01:50. > :01:51.Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, and they'll be tweeting quicker than a
:01:52. > :02:08.yellow Lamborghini racing down Miami Beach. Being political nerds, they
:02:09. > :02:12.have no idea what I'm talking about. Ed Balls sprung a surprise on us all
:02:13. > :02:16.yesterday. We kinda thought Labour would head for the election with a
:02:17. > :02:20.return to the 50p top rate of tax. But we didn't think he'd do it now.
:02:21. > :02:23.He did! The polls say it's popular, Labour activists now have a spring
:02:24. > :02:27.in their step. The Tories say it's a return to the bad old days of the
:02:28. > :02:29.'70s, and bosses now think Labour is anti-business. Here's the Shadow
:02:30. > :02:32.Chancellor speaking earlier this morning. I was part of a Government
:02:33. > :02:34.which did very many things to open up markets, to make the Bank of
:02:35. > :02:37.England independent, to work closely with business, but the reality is we
:02:38. > :02:39.are in very difficult circumstances and because if I'm honest you,
:02:40. > :02:43.George Osborne's failure in the last few years, those difficult
:02:44. > :02:52.circumstances will last into the next Parliament. Business people
:02:53. > :02:58.have said to me they want to get the deficit down, of course they do. But
:02:59. > :03:02.to cut the top rate... It is foolish and feeds resentment I want to do
:03:03. > :03:07.the opposite and say look, pro-business, pro investment, pro
:03:08. > :03:11.market, but pro fairness. Let's get this deficit down in a fairway and
:03:12. > :03:17.make the reforms to make our economy work for the long term. What are the
:03:18. > :03:24.political implications of Labour now in favour of a 50%, in practise 352%
:03:25. > :03:27.top rate of tax? One of the political implications I don't think
:03:28. > :03:31.exist is that they'll win new voters. I'm not sure many people out
:03:32. > :03:36.there would think, I would love to vote for Ed Miliband but I'm not
:03:37. > :03:42.sure if he wants to tax rich people enough. It will con Dale their
:03:43. > :03:49.existing vote but I don't think it is the kind of, in the 1990s we
:03:50. > :03:53.talked about triangulation, moving beyond your core vote, I don't think
:03:54. > :03:56.it is a policy like that. If there has been a policy like that this
:03:57. > :04:00.year, this month, it has been the Tories' move on minimum wage. I
:04:01. > :04:04.thought Labour would come back with their own version, a centre-right
:04:05. > :04:09.policy, and instead they have done this. I think we talk about the 35%
:04:10. > :04:16.strategy that Labour supposed will have, I think it is a policy in that
:04:17. > :04:22.direction rather than the thing Tony Blair or Gordon Brown would have
:04:23. > :04:28.done. Where he was not clear is on how much it would raise. We know the
:04:29. > :04:33.sum in the grand scheme of things isn't much, the bedroom tax was
:04:34. > :04:41.about sending a message. What we are going to see is George Osborne and
:04:42. > :04:47.Ed Balls lock as they try to push the other one into saying things
:04:48. > :04:55.that are unpopular. The Tories, ?150,000 a year, that's exactly
:04:56. > :04:59.where Ed Balls want them to be. All three main parties have roughly the
:05:00. > :05:03.same plan, to run a current budget surplus by the end of the next
:05:04. > :05:08.Parliament. George Osborne said ?12 billion of welfare cuts, hasn't said
:05:09. > :05:13.how he is going to do it. Ed Balls is giving an idea that he is going
:05:14. > :05:18.to restore this 50 persons rate. The contribution of that will be
:05:19. > :05:23.deminimus. It is not much, but what does it say about your values.
:05:24. > :05:27.Because it is that package, it is cleverer than people think. Where
:05:28. > :05:30.the challenge is is the question that Peter Mandelson posed at the
:05:31. > :05:35.last election, which is can the Labour Party win a general election
:05:36. > :05:38.if it doesn't have business on its side? That's the big challenge and
:05:39. > :05:43.that's the question looking difficult for them this morning.
:05:44. > :05:49.Does it matter if Labour has business on its side. I thought the
:05:50. > :05:53.most fascinating thing about this announcement is it came from the guy
:05:54. > :05:57.mindful of business support, Ed Balls. When in opposition and when a
:05:58. > :06:03.Minister and as a shadow as a result, he's been far more conscious
:06:04. > :06:08.than Ed Miliband about the need not to alienate the CB Bill. In the
:06:09. > :06:12.run-up of an election. This is a measure of Ed Miliband's strength in
:06:13. > :06:18.the Labour Party, that his view of things can prevail so easily over a
:06:19. > :06:23.guy who for the last 15 years has taken a different view. Eight out of
:06:24. > :06:29.ten businesses according to the CBI don't want us to leave business.
:06:30. > :06:34.Business is in a bit of a cleft stick. Ed Miliband would like to see
:06:35. > :06:36.businesses squealing, and Ed Balls is clearly not so comfortable on
:06:37. > :06:41.that one. There's a difference on that. Mind you, they were squealing
:06:42. > :06:45.this morning from Davos. They probably had hangovers as well. The
:06:46. > :06:51.other thing they would say is this is not like Ed Balls thinks that 50p
:06:52. > :06:55.is the optimal rate forever, it what go eventually. Isn't that what
:06:56. > :07:00.politicians said when income tax was introduced? Yeah, in '97 Labour
:07:01. > :07:05.regarded 40 persons as the rate where it would stay.
:07:06. > :07:10.It's been a bad week for the Lib Dems. Again. Actually, it's been one
:07:11. > :07:13.of the worst weeks yet for Nick Clegg and his party in recent
:07:14. > :07:16.memory, as they've gone from talking confidently about their role in
:07:17. > :07:18.Government to facing a storm of criticism over claims of
:07:19. > :07:21.inappropriate sexual behaviour by a Lib Dem peer, Chris Rennard, and a
:07:22. > :07:25.Lib Dem MP, Mike Hancock. Here's Giles with the story of the week. A
:07:26. > :07:31.challenge to Nick Clegg's authority as he face as growing row over the
:07:32. > :07:36.Liberal Democrat... I want everyone to be treated with respect by the
:07:37. > :07:42.Liberal Democrats. We are expecting him to show moral leadership on our
:07:43. > :07:48.behalf. A good man has been publicly destroyed by the media with the
:07:49. > :07:51.apparent support of Nick Clegg. I would like Nick Clegg to show
:07:52. > :07:58.leadership and say, this has got to stop. When Nick Clegg woke up on
:07:59. > :08:04.Monday morning he knew he was in trouble, staring down the barrel of
:08:05. > :08:10.a stand justify with Lord Rennard over allegations that the peer had
:08:11. > :08:14.inappropriately touched a number of women. Chris Rennard thought he was
:08:15. > :08:19.cleared. Nick Clegg wanted more. I said if he doesn't apologise, he
:08:20. > :08:24.should withdraw from the House of Lords. If he does that today, what
:08:25. > :08:31.do you do then? I hope he doesn't. I think no apology, no whip. 2014 was
:08:32. > :08:35.starting badly for the Liberal Democrats. Chris Rennard refused to
:08:36. > :08:41.apologise, saying you can't say sorry for something you haven't
:08:42. > :08:44.done. The and he was leaning towards legal action. Butch us friends
:08:45. > :08:48.better defending Pym and publicly. This is a good, decent man, who has
:08:49. > :08:53.been punished by the party, with the leadership of the party that seems
:08:54. > :08:59.to be showing scant regard for due process. But his accusers felt very
:09:00. > :09:04.differently. It is untenable for the Lib Dems to have a credible voice on
:09:05. > :09:08.qualities and women's issues in the future if Lord Rennard was allowed
:09:09. > :09:15.to be back on the Lib Dem benches in the House of Lords. Therein lay the
:09:16. > :09:18.problem that exposed the weaknesses of the Lib Dem leaders. The party's
:09:19. > :09:26.internal structures have all the simplicity of a circuit diagram for
:09:27. > :09:30.a supercomputer, exposing the complexity of who runs the Liberal
:09:31. > :09:35.Democrats? The simple question that arose of that was can the leader of
:09:36. > :09:40.the Lib Dems remove a Lib Dem peer? The simple answer is no. The Lib Dem
:09:41. > :09:47.whips in the Lords could do it but if enough Lib Dem peers disagreed,
:09:48. > :09:50.they could overrule it. Some long-stand ng friends of roar
:09:51. > :09:54.Rennard think he is either the innocent victim of a media
:09:55. > :09:59.witch-hunt or at the least due process has been ridden over rough
:10:00. > :10:03.shot by the leadership. Nobody ever did spot Lord Rennard as he didn't
:10:04. > :10:08.turn up to the Lords, will citing ill health. But issued a statement
:10:09. > :10:12.that ruled out an apology. He refused to do so and refused to
:10:13. > :10:15.comply with the outcome of that report, so there was no alternative
:10:16. > :10:20.but for the party to suspend his membership today. On Wednesday Nick
:10:21. > :10:23.Clegg met Lib Dem peers, not for a crunch decision, but to discuss the
:10:24. > :10:27.extraordinary prospect of legal action against the party by the man
:10:28. > :10:31.long credited with building its success. The situation was making
:10:32. > :10:35.the party look like a joke. One Tory MP said to one of my colleagues this
:10:36. > :10:39.morning, the funny thing about the Liberal Democrats, you managed to
:10:40. > :10:43.create a whole sex scandal without any sex. And we can laugh at
:10:44. > :10:48.ourselves but actually it is rather serious. And it got more serious,
:10:49. > :10:52.when an MP who had resigned the Lib Dem whip last year was expanded from
:10:53. > :10:56.the party over a report into allegations of serious and unwelcome
:10:57. > :11:01.sexual behaviour towards a constituent. All of this leaves the
:11:02. > :11:06.Lib Dems desperately wishing these sagas had been dealt with long ago
:11:07. > :11:12.and would now go away. Nick Clegg ended the week still party leader.
:11:13. > :11:18.Lord Rennard, once one of their most powerful players, ended the week,
:11:19. > :11:22.for now, no longer even in it. Giles on the Lib Dems' disastrous
:11:23. > :11:27.week. Now, as you doubtless already know, on Tuesday Lib Dem MPs will
:11:28. > :11:32.vote to choose a new deputy leader. You didn't know that? You do now.
:11:33. > :11:36.The job of Nick Clegg's number two is to speak with a genuine Lib Dem
:11:37. > :11:40.voice, untainted by the demands of coalition Government. At this point
:11:41. > :11:43.in the show we had expected to speak to all three candidates for the
:11:44. > :11:50.post, held in recent years by party veterans like Vince Cable and Simon
:11:51. > :11:54.Hughes. We thought it being quite a significant week for the party, they
:11:55. > :11:59.might have something to say. And here they are. Well that's their
:12:00. > :12:03.pictures. For various reasons, all three are now unavailable. Malcolm
:12:04. > :12:07.Bruce, he's reckoned to be the outsider. His office said he had a
:12:08. > :12:10."family commitment". Gordon Birtwistle, the Burnley MP, was
:12:11. > :12:14.booked to appear but then told us, "I was at an event last night with
:12:15. > :12:19.Lorely Burt" - she's one of the candidates - "and she told me it was
:12:20. > :12:23.off". And Lorely Burt herself, seen by many as the red hot favourite,
:12:24. > :12:27.told us: "Because of the Rennard thing we don't want to put ourselves
:12:28. > :12:38.in a position where we have to answer difficult questions." How
:12:39. > :12:42.refreshingly honest. Helen, how bad politically is all this for the Lib
:12:43. > :12:46.Dems? What I think is the tragic irony of the Lib Dems is they've
:12:47. > :12:51.been revealed as being too democratic. In the same way that
:12:52. > :12:55.their party conference embarrassed Nick Clegg by voting sings that he
:12:56. > :13:02.signed up to, and now everything has to be run past various
:13:03. > :13:14.sub-committees first. Is it democratic or chaotic? It is
:13:15. > :13:20.Byzantine. Mike Hancock was voluntarily suspended, and this week
:13:21. > :13:24.he was properly suspended. It was new information into the public
:13:25. > :13:31.domain that forced that. I'm already hearing Labour and Conservative
:13:32. > :13:35.Party musing that if it is a long Parliament, we will form a minority
:13:36. > :13:38.Government. It is a disaster for them. Voters like parties that
:13:39. > :13:43.reflect and are interested this their concerns. Parties that are
:13:44. > :13:47.self obsessed turn them off. The third party, if they carry on like
:13:48. > :13:51.this, they'll be the fifth party in the European elections, so they have
:13:52. > :13:56.got to draw a line under this. They do that, if they do, through
:13:57. > :14:01.mediation. As I understand it, Chris Rennard,s who has go devoted his
:14:02. > :14:04.entire life to the Liberal Democrats, and previously the
:14:05. > :14:07.Liberal Party, is keen to draw a line under this. He is up for
:14:08. > :14:12.mediation but he needs to know that the women that he has clearly
:14:13. > :14:16.invaded their personal space, that there wouldn't be a possible legal a
:14:17. > :14:20.action from them. The it is very difficult to see how you could
:14:21. > :14:24.resolve that. Except he is threatening through his friends,
:14:25. > :14:29.these famous friends, to spill all the beans about all the party's sex
:14:30. > :14:32.secrets. Isn't the danger for the Lib Dems, this haunts them through
:14:33. > :14:36.to the European elections, where they'll get thumped in the European
:14:37. > :14:39.elections? They'll get destroyed in the European elections, which keeps
:14:40. > :14:45.it salient as a story over the summer. And it has implications for
:14:46. > :14:49.Nick Clegg's leadership. He's done a good job until now, perhaps better
:14:50. > :14:52.than David Cameron, of exercising authority over his party. He had a
:14:53. > :14:56.good conference in September. Absolutely, and now the Lib Dems
:14:57. > :15:02.have looked like a party without a leader or a leadership structure.
:15:03. > :15:05.Part of that is down to the chaotic or Byzantine organisational
:15:06. > :15:09.structure of the party. Part of it is Nick Clegg's failure to assert
:15:10. > :15:17.himself and impose himself over events. Is it Byzantine or
:15:18. > :15:28.Byzantine. It is labyrinthine. You don't get these words on the Today
:15:29. > :15:32.programme. The cost of living has been back on the agenda this week as
:15:33. > :15:35.Labour and the Tories argue over whether the value of money in your
:15:36. > :15:38.pocket is going up or down. Well there's one cost which has been
:15:39. > :15:42.racing ahead of inflation and that's the amount you have to pay to travel
:15:43. > :15:45.by train, by bus and by air. Rail commuters have been hard hit over
:15:46. > :15:48.the last four years, with the cost of the average season ticket going
:15:49. > :15:55.up by 18% since January 2010, while wages have gone up by just 3.6% over
:15:56. > :16:01.the same period. It means some rail users are paying high prices with
:16:02. > :16:05.commuters from Kent shelling out more than ?5,000 per year from the
:16:06. > :16:10.beginning of this month just to get to work in London. It doesn't
:16:11. > :16:16.compare well with our European counterparts. In the UK the average
:16:17. > :16:24.rail user spends 14% of their average income on trains. It is just
:16:25. > :16:29.1.5% in Italy. Regulated fares like season tickets went up 3.1% at the
:16:30. > :16:34.beginning of this month, and with ministers keen to make passengers
:16:35. > :16:37.fought more of the bills, there are more fare rises coming down the
:16:38. > :16:51.track. And Patrick McLoughlin joins me now for the Sunday Interview.
:16:52. > :16:55.Welcome. You claim to be in the party of hard-working people, so why
:16:56. > :16:59.is it that since you came to power rail commuters have seen the cost of
:17:00. > :17:08.their average season ticket going up in money terms by over 18% while
:17:09. > :17:13.their pay has gone up in money terms by less than four? I would point out
:17:14. > :17:19.that this is the first year in ten years that we have not had an above
:17:20. > :17:24.inflation increase on fares. The Government accepts we have got to do
:17:25. > :17:33.as much as we can to help the passengers. A big inflation increase
:17:34. > :17:40.since 2010. This is the first year in ten years that it has not been
:17:41. > :17:44.above RPI, but we are also investing huge amounts of money into the
:17:45. > :17:49.railways, building new trains for the East Coast Main Line and the
:17:50. > :17:56.great Western. We are spending ?500 million at Birmingham station, this
:17:57. > :18:00.is all increasing capacity, so we are seeing investments. Over the
:18:01. > :18:10.next five years Network Rail will invest over ?38 billion in the
:18:11. > :18:15.network structure. We also have an expensive railway and it is ordinary
:18:16. > :18:20.people paying for it. A season ticket from Woking in Surrey,
:18:21. > :18:27.commuter belt land in London, let's look at the figures. This is a
:18:28. > :18:36.distance of over 25 miles, it cost over ?3000 per year. We have picked
:18:37. > :18:44.similar distances to international cities.
:18:45. > :18:53.The British commuter is being ripped off. The British commuter is seeing
:18:54. > :18:58.record levels of investment in our railways. The investment has to be
:18:59. > :19:01.paid for. We are investing huge amounts of money and I don't know
:19:02. > :19:19.whether the figures you have got here... I'm sure they are likewise,
:19:20. > :19:27.as you have managed to do... White -- ten times more than the Italian
:19:28. > :19:32.equivalent. We have seen transformational changes in our
:19:33. > :19:37.railway services and we need to carry on investing. We were paying
:19:38. > :19:41.these prices even before you started investing. We have always paid a lot
:19:42. > :19:51.more to commute in this country than our European equivalents. I'm not
:19:52. > :19:57.quite sure I want to take on Italy is a great example. You would if you
:19:58. > :20:03.were a commuter. You is a great example. You would if you
:20:04. > :20:09.the other rates of taxation has to be paid as well. Isn't it the case
:20:10. > :20:13.they are making profits out of these figures and using them to subsidise
:20:14. > :20:21.cheaper fares back in their homeland? The overall profit margin
:20:22. > :20:25.train companies make is 3%, a reasonable amount, and we have seen
:20:26. > :20:30.a revolution as far as the railway industry is concerned.
:20:31. > :20:35.a revolution as far as the railway 20 years we have seen passenger
:20:36. > :20:39.journeys going from 750 million to 1.5 billion. That is a massive
:20:40. > :20:44.revolution in rail. Let me look 1.5 billion. That is a massive
:20:45. > :20:44.spokesperson for the German government, the Ministry of
:20:45. > :21:01.transport. They are charging huge fares in
:21:02. > :21:07.Britain to take that money back to subsidise fares in Germany. What do
:21:08. > :21:11.you say to that? We are seeing British companies winning contracts
:21:12. > :21:17.in Germany. The National Express are winning contracts to the railways.
:21:18. > :21:22.What about the ordinary commuter? They are paying through the nose so
:21:23. > :21:27.German commuters can travel more cheaply. We are still subsidising
:21:28. > :21:31.the railways in this country, but overall we want to reduce the
:21:32. > :21:39.subsidy we are giving. We are still seeing growth in our railways and I
:21:40. > :21:47.want to see more people using them. Why do you increase rail fares at
:21:48. > :21:52.the higher RPI measure than the lower CPI measurement? That is what
:21:53. > :21:56.has always been done, and we have stopped. This is the first time in
:21:57. > :22:06.ten years that we have not raised the rail figures above RPI. You
:22:07. > :22:12.still link fares to RPI. You use the lower CPI figure when it suits you,
:22:13. > :22:16.to keep pension payments down for example, but the higher one when it
:22:17. > :22:21.comes to increasing rail fares. We are still putting a huge subsidy
:22:22. > :22:25.into the rail industry, there is still a huge amount of money going
:22:26. > :22:31.from the taxpayer to support the rail industry. I am not asking you
:22:32. > :22:39.about that, I am asking you why you link the figures to the higher RPI
:22:40. > :22:46.vesture Mark if we are going to pay for the levels of investment, so all
:22:47. > :22:50.the new trains being built at Newton Aycliffe for the East Coast Main
:22:51. > :22:54.Line and the great Western, ?3.5 billion of investment, new rolling
:22:55. > :22:58.stock coming online, then yes, we have to pay for it, and it is a
:22:59. > :23:12.question of the taxpayer paying for it all the -- or the passenger.
:23:13. > :23:16.You have capped parking fines until the next election, rail commuters we
:23:17. > :23:26.have seen the cost of their ticket has gone up by nearly 20%, you are
:23:27. > :23:33.the party of the drivers, not the passengers, aren't you?
:23:34. > :23:46.We are trying to help everybody who has been struggling. I think we are
:23:47. > :23:51.setting out long-term plans for our railways, investing heavily in them
:23:52. > :23:56.and it is getting that balance right. But you have done more for
:23:57. > :24:03.the driver than you have for the user of public transport. I don't
:24:04. > :24:09.accept that. They are paying the same petrol prices as 2011. This is
:24:10. > :24:17.the first time in ten years that there has not been an RPI plus
:24:18. > :24:24.rise. We are investing record amounts. Bus fares are also rising,
:24:25. > :24:30.4.2% in real terms in 2010, at a time when real take-home pay has
:24:31. > :24:35.been falling. This hits commuters particularly workers who use buses
:24:36. > :24:40.on low incomes, another cost of living squeeze. I was with
:24:41. > :24:54.Stagecoach in Manchester on Friday, and I saw a bus company investing in
:24:55. > :24:59.new buses. Last week First ordered new buses. Part of your hard-working
:25:00. > :25:06.families you are always on about, they are the ones going to work
:25:07. > :25:10.early in the morning, and yet you are making them pay more for their
:25:11. > :25:17.buses in real terms than they did before. They would be happier if
:25:18. > :25:22.they could travel more cheaply. It is about getting investment in
:25:23. > :25:30.services, it has to be paid for. Why not run the old buses for five more
:25:31. > :25:34.years? Because then there is more pollution in the atmosphere, modern
:25:35. > :25:39.buses have lower emissions, and we are still giving huge support
:25:40. > :25:42.overall to the bus industry and that is very important because I fully
:25:43. > :25:51.accept that the number of people, yes, use the train but a lot of
:25:52. > :25:58.people use buses as well. High-speed two, it has been delayed because 877
:25:59. > :26:04.pages of key evidence from your department were left on a computer
:26:05. > :26:08.memory stick, part of the submission to environmental consultation. Your
:26:09. > :26:15.department's economic case is now widely regarded as a joke, now you
:26:16. > :26:21.do this. Is your department fit for purpose? Yes, and as far as what
:26:22. > :26:24.happened with the memory stick, it is an acceptable and shouldn't have
:26:25. > :26:30.happened, and therefore we have extended the time. There has been an
:26:31. > :26:41.extension in the time for people to make representation, the bill for
:26:42. > :26:54.this goes through Parliament in a different way to a normal bill. It
:26:55. > :26:58.is vital HS2 provides what we want. What I am very pleased about is when
:26:59. > :27:03.the paving bill was passed by Parliament just a few months ago,
:27:04. > :27:09.there was overwhelming support, and I kept reading there was going to be
:27:10. > :27:14.70 people voting against it, in the end 30 people voted against it and
:27:15. > :27:18.there was a good majority in the House of Commons. So can you give a
:27:19. > :27:27.guarantee that this legislation will get onto the statute books? I will
:27:28. > :27:30.do all I can. I cannot tell you the exact Parliamentary time scale. The
:27:31. > :27:39.bill will have started its progress through the House of Commons by
:27:40. > :27:45.2015, and it may well have concluded. The new chairman of HS2
:27:46. > :27:56.said he can bring the cost of the line substantially under the budget,
:27:57. > :28:01.do you agree with that? The figure is ?42 billion with a large
:28:02. > :28:05.contingency, and David Higgins, as chairman of HS2, is looking at the
:28:06. > :28:11.whole cast and seeing if there are ways in which it can be built
:28:12. > :28:16.faster. At the moment across London we are building Crossrail, ?14.5
:28:17. > :28:22.billion investment. There was a report last week saying what an
:28:23. > :28:28.excellent job has been done. Crossrail started under Labour.
:28:29. > :28:36.Actually it was Cecil Parkinson in the 1990 party conference. You may
:28:37. > :28:42.get HS2 cheaper if you didn't pay people so much, why is the
:28:43. > :28:52.nonexecutive chairman of HS2 on ?600,000? And the new chief
:28:53. > :28:55.executive on ?750,000. These are very big projects and we need to
:28:56. > :29:00.attract the best people become so we are going for the best engineers in
:29:01. > :29:05.the world to engineer this project. It is a large salary, there is no
:29:06. > :29:10.question about it, but I'm rather pleased that engineers rather than
:29:11. > :29:14.bankers can be seen to get big rewards for delivering what will be
:29:15. > :29:18.very important pieces of national infrastructure. I didn't have time
:29:19. > :29:25.to ask you about your passenger duty so perhaps another time. We are
:29:26. > :29:28.about to speak to Nigel Mills and all of these MPs on your side who
:29:29. > :29:33.are rebelling against the Government, how would you handle
:29:34. > :29:39.them? We have got to listen to what our colleagues are talking about and
:29:40. > :29:44.try to respond it. Would you take them for a long walk off a short
:29:45. > :29:56.pier? I'm sure I would have many conversations with them. An
:29:57. > :30:03.immigration bill to tack the immigration into the UK. When limits
:30:04. > :30:08.on migration from Bulgaria and Romania were lifted this year there
:30:09. > :30:12.were warnings of a large influx of migrant workerses from the two new
:30:13. > :30:18.European countries. So far it's been more of a dribble than a flood. Who
:30:19. > :30:22.can forget Labour MP Keith Vaz greeting a handful of arrivals at
:30:23. > :30:27.Luton Airport. But it is early days and it is one of the reasons the
:30:28. > :30:30.Government's introduced a new Immigration Bill. The Prime Minister
:30:31. > :30:37.is facing rebellion from backbenchers who want tougher action
:30:38. > :30:45.on immigration from abroad. Nigel Mills would reimpose restrictions on
:30:46. > :30:52.how many Romanians and Bulgarians can come here. Joining me is Nigel
:30:53. > :30:57.Mills, Conservative MP behind the amendment and Labour MP Diane
:30:58. > :31:05.Abbott. Welcome. Nigel Mills, there hasn't been an influx of Romanians
:31:06. > :31:08.and Bulgarians. Why do you want to restore these, kick these
:31:09. > :31:13.transitional controls way forward to 2019? I don't think any of us were
:31:14. > :31:18.expecting a rush on January 1st, Andrew. I think we were talking
:31:19. > :31:24.about a range of 250,000 to 350,000 people over five years. That's
:31:25. > :31:28.obviously a large amount of people, especially when you think net
:31:29. > :31:32.migration to the UK was well in excess of the Government's target of
:31:33. > :31:37.tens of thousands last year. The real concern is that it would be
:31:38. > :31:43.ever increasing our population, attracting lots of low-skilled,
:31:44. > :31:48.low-wage people, which keeps our people out of work and wages down.
:31:49. > :31:52.Did you accept that if you were to accept this, it would be in breach
:31:53. > :31:58.of the Treaty of Rome, the founding principle of the European Union? We
:31:59. > :32:02.were trying to keep the restrictions that Bulgaria and Romania accepted
:32:03. > :32:05.for their first seven years of EU membership, on the basis that when
:32:06. > :32:09.we signed the treaty we weren't aware that we would have a huge and
:32:10. > :32:14.catastrophic recession we are still recovering from. But you would be in
:32:15. > :32:19.breach of the law, correct? The UK Parliament has a right to say we
:32:20. > :32:23.signed this deal before the terrible recession, and we need a bit longer
:32:24. > :32:30.in our national interest. It is worth noting that Bulgaria and
:32:31. > :32:35.Romania haven't met all their accession requirements. The
:32:36. > :32:40.Bulgarian requirement passed a law... So if they break the law it
:32:41. > :32:45.is alright for us to break the law? Is we should be focusing on trying
:32:46. > :32:51.to get 2. 4 million of our own in work, and 1 million people not in
:32:52. > :32:56.work... Let me bring in Diane Abbott. Will you vote for this
:32:57. > :33:01.amendment and why? It is in breach of the treaty. While I deplore MPs
:33:02. > :33:05.that try to cause trouble, these MPs have been particularly mindless,
:33:06. > :33:10.because what they want to do wouldn't be legal. However, it is a
:33:11. > :33:15.Tory internal brief, if I might say so. Maybe you can cause trouble by
:33:16. > :33:22.voting for it. No, that would be going too far. Underlying it is a
:33:23. > :33:26.real antagonism for David Cameron. They have had to hold off on this
:33:27. > :33:30.bill until January. It was supposed to be debating before Christmas. As
:33:31. > :33:38.we speak they've not cut a deal, so it could be pretty grus om. Nigel
:33:39. > :33:42.Mills, what do you say to that I think there is a recognition that
:33:43. > :33:47.there is a problem with the amount of migration from EU countries that
:33:48. > :33:50.we need to tackle. We could try to achieve an annual cap perhaps,
:33:51. > :33:54.longer limits on when countries get free movement. I think the debate is
:33:55. > :33:58.moving in the right direction, but I think those people who are trapped
:33:59. > :34:03.out of work and desperately looking for work want something to be done
:34:04. > :34:08.now and not wait a few more years while we have more assessments
:34:09. > :34:13.Andrews. People are worried about the level of immigration. They I it
:34:14. > :34:19.is too high. That's the consensus in the country. We spoke to to
:34:20. > :34:22.migration centre in Hackney and they said they are struggling to cope
:34:23. > :34:26.with the number of people using their services. These are people
:34:27. > :34:31.with problems with the law. In the past years EU migrants put in more
:34:32. > :34:36.to the economy in taxation than they take out in benefits. When it comes
:34:37. > :34:41.to free movement, which is agitating Nige em, that horse has bolted. We
:34:42. > :34:46.signed a treaty. There is nothing people like Nigel Mills can do,
:34:47. > :34:50.unless they want to rip their party apart, God forbid. Will you go as
:34:51. > :34:55.far as to rip your party apart, Nigel Mills? Are you going to take
:34:56. > :35:00.this all the way? Would you rather see this bill go down than your
:35:01. > :35:06.amendment not be accepted? This is a very important bill. I think we all
:35:07. > :35:10.want to see measures on the statute book, so the last thing we want to
:35:11. > :35:15.see is this bill go down. We do need to set out clearly that we have real
:35:16. > :35:22.concerns about the level of EU migration and something needs to be
:35:23. > :35:27.done. Would you rather have the bill without your amendment or no bill at
:35:28. > :35:32.all? I am hoping we can have the bill with the amendment. I know
:35:33. > :35:38.that, but if you can't? Is that will depend on what the Labour Party
:35:39. > :35:43.decide to do. They are talking tougher on immigration but will they
:35:44. > :35:47.take action on it? Your party has been talking tough on immigration
:35:48. > :35:51.but I will be surprised if an Ed Miliband Labour Party would vote for
:35:52. > :35:56.egg in direct cameravention of the Treaty of Rome. It would make no
:35:57. > :36:03.sense. Nigel Mills is wishing for the impossible. If I was a Tory I
:36:04. > :36:08.would be wringing high hands. He hasn't ruled out crashing the bill.
:36:09. > :36:14.That's incredible. Where will this end, Nigel Mills? We'll end with a
:36:15. > :36:19.vote on Thursday. There's a lot of amendments people can use to show
:36:20. > :36:22.their concern about migration. We want limited and proportionate
:36:23. > :36:27.action, and that's what I am proposing. I want to see the bill on
:36:28. > :36:32.the statute book, I want the restrictions on people who shouldn't
:36:33. > :36:36.be here getting bank accounts and driving licences. I don't want to
:36:37. > :36:42.crash this bill but there's more measures we need in it. Nigel Mills
:36:43. > :36:47.thank you. You are going to be -- popping up I think on the Sunday
:36:48. > :36:54.Politics East Midlands. Diane Abbott, thank you as well.
:36:55. > :36:57.We're in for more heavy rain and high winds across the UK today. You
:36:58. > :36:59.may remember that one UKIP councillor - he's since been
:37:00. > :37:02.suspended - caused controversy last weekend by blaming the recent
:37:03. > :37:06.flooding on the legalisation of gay marriage. Why didn't I think of
:37:07. > :37:09.that? So who better than this man to bring you the unofficial forecast.
:37:10. > :37:14.I'll be bringing you the late least UKIP weather from your area.
:37:15. > :37:21.You're watching Sunday Politics. Also coming up in just over 20
:37:22. > :37:23.minutes, I'll be looking at the week ahead with our political panel.
:37:24. > :37:38.Until Welcome to Sunday politics in
:37:39. > :37:41.Northern Ireland. The Ulster Unionist Party has said no to
:37:42. > :37:46.opposition at Stormont, get one of his peers is proposing that very
:37:47. > :37:53.thing. Where does the party stand? We will hear from Lord MP and former
:37:54. > :37:56.Ulster Unionist Party 's NI21 deputy leader John McCallister.
:37:57. > :38:01.And pressure over welfare reform. Those who resist the inevitability
:38:02. > :38:06.of welfare reform can answer why our roads budget, education budget has
:38:07. > :38:13.to lose out next year and potentially next year, too.
:38:14. > :38:15.With me throughout with their thoughts, academic Cathy
:38:16. > :38:22.Gormley-Heenan and journalist Sam McBride.
:38:23. > :38:29.It was a fundamental part of the Good Friday Agreement, the creation
:38:30. > :38:33.of a mandatory coalition. But every so often the debate over
:38:34. > :38:36.establishing an official opposition cranks up a gear. This time it is
:38:37. > :38:39.the turn of the Ulster Unionist Party the party chairman has tabled
:38:40. > :38:48.an amendment to the Northern Ireland Bill which would pave the way for
:38:49. > :38:54.opposition. The party NI21 have the stated
:38:55. > :38:58.intention of campaigning for an opposition.
:38:59. > :39:03.Welcome to the programme, Lord Empey, first of all, why are you
:39:04. > :39:07.making a case for formal opposition at Stormont at this stage? Because
:39:08. > :39:12.there is a piece of legislation in front of Parliament that allows me
:39:13. > :39:18.to do so, the Northern Ireland miscellaneous provisions Bill and
:39:19. > :39:21.allows you to put forward items of a wide range of areas.
:39:22. > :39:25.I have put forward a series of amendments. There is a legislative
:39:26. > :39:29.vehicle in front of us at this point. So you can do it, the
:39:30. > :39:35.question is why choose to do it? It looks to the public, I suggest,
:39:36. > :39:38.that it is a change of tack on the part of the Ulster Unionist Party.
:39:39. > :39:44.You were not in favour of opposition, now you appear to be. I
:39:45. > :39:49.am afraid you are wrong. Our 2010 manifesto had provision for
:39:50. > :39:54.opposition. In our manifesto for 2011 it is included, and at Mike
:39:55. > :40:00.Nesbitt's maiden speech he raised the question of opposition. Whether
:40:01. > :40:03.we as a party would ever seek to be an opposition is a totally different
:40:04. > :40:07.issue from whether we have an official opposition or not. We want
:40:08. > :40:12.the provision could be applied because we think it will strengthen
:40:13. > :40:16.Stormont, it will move us one stage towards more normal politics and I
:40:17. > :40:20.cannot see any reason why anyone would be opposed to it.
:40:21. > :40:26.In the public mind, John McCallister stood for the story -- Ulster
:40:27. > :40:30.Unionist leader against Mike Nesbitt, he stood on a ticket of
:40:31. > :40:35.wanting to take the party into opposition and Mike Nesbitt oppose
:40:36. > :40:38.that. Now the former leader looks to be supporting opposition. Can you
:40:39. > :40:42.see how that looks strange to the public? John wanted to take the
:40:43. > :40:46.party into opposition there and then.
:40:47. > :40:50.We are arguing there is no opposition facility at Stormont to
:40:51. > :40:53.take the party into. All you can do is remove yourself from the
:40:54. > :41:00.executive and just sit there. There is no status, you will get no
:41:01. > :41:03.speaking rights, supply days or anything and opposition would get.
:41:04. > :41:08.John McCallister, do you accept that analysis?
:41:09. > :41:12.My Private Members' Bill would create that, and effectively at the
:41:13. > :41:15.minute we are looking at two former leaders of the Ulster Unionist Party
:41:16. > :41:19.effectively wanting to take powers away from the Northern Ireland
:41:20. > :41:26.Assembly. Legal advice in this is quite clear.
:41:27. > :41:32.We can do this at Stormont, and that is the place this should be being
:41:33. > :41:37.done. I welcome the debate, but if he wants to do something in the
:41:38. > :41:41.Northern Ireland miscellaneous Bill, what he should be doing is tackling
:41:42. > :41:45.the bits we cannot do at Stormont, like designation or particularly
:41:46. > :41:50.tackling the way we elect the Justice Minister. You are saying
:41:51. > :41:53.this debate is unnecessary because you think the powers already reside
:41:54. > :41:56.at Stormont? Let me be clear on that, they reside
:41:57. > :42:02.at Stormont. The legal advice is that they reside
:42:03. > :42:06.at Stormont. That is where this should be decided and debated. But
:42:07. > :42:08.that would be for something of informal opposition rather than
:42:09. > :42:14.formal opposition. What he is wanting to do, all of
:42:15. > :42:18.that is decided at Stormont, and we can change that.
:42:19. > :42:23.The best vehicle to do that is in my Private Members' Bill. This point
:42:24. > :42:29.about trying to normalise politics - you cannot have a party leader out
:42:30. > :42:34.fighting a culture where -- culture war and then talk about normalising
:42:35. > :42:38.politics. The public will not understand that message. You cannot
:42:39. > :42:42.talk about opposition as you would claim, Reg, for about 16 years and
:42:43. > :42:47.not want to go into it, not see that we believe strong enough to go into
:42:48. > :42:52.it. We believe in having it but do not want to go into it seems to be
:42:53. > :42:57.the message from the UUP. John McCallister is saying, Reg Empey,
:42:58. > :43:03.that this should be the preserve of the MLAs at Stormont.
:43:04. > :43:08.No, if he looks at his own party's website on the 27th of August, when
:43:09. > :43:12.he sat beside Alex came at a seminar organised by himself on opposition,
:43:13. > :43:15.Alex Kane made it absolutely clear that if you went down the road he
:43:16. > :43:20.wants to go down and leave it at Stormont you would be the way thing
:43:21. > :43:24.of the shin of -- of Sinn Fein and the DUP, they can snuff you out like
:43:25. > :43:30.that. Standing orders at Stormont can be changed at any point by the
:43:31. > :43:33.largest two parties. We want to have it in statute so there is no
:43:34. > :43:38.question that the stat us of an opposition is not dependent on the
:43:39. > :43:43.goodwill of the two parties who happen to be in control. -- the
:43:44. > :43:46.status. Does that mean that Mike Nesbitt would want to take the
:43:47. > :43:51.Australian unionists into opposition?
:43:52. > :43:59.He can do that at the moment anyway. -- the Ulster Unionists.
:44:00. > :44:05.No, he cannot. All you can do is become a group of
:44:06. > :44:11.backbenchers with no status. First of all, any party that thinks in an
:44:12. > :44:14.election fights to win. You fight to win, to get support for your
:44:15. > :44:20.policies and implement them in over a month. But on occasion, parties do
:44:21. > :44:24.not win. -- implement them in government. We want to have an
:44:25. > :44:27.opposition which is officially recognised which cannot be the
:44:28. > :44:32.plaything of any two parties at Stormont. The methodology for
:44:33. > :44:37.electing ministers and selecting them is all in the Northern Ireland
:44:38. > :44:39.act, so should opposition be. There is not very much separating you, is
:44:40. > :44:43.there? The point is, opposition is not
:44:44. > :44:48.mentioned in the Northern Ireland act.
:44:49. > :44:54.For that very reason it means it is a devolved matter and the Northern
:44:55. > :44:57.Ireland Assembly can change it. Alex Kane is not a lawyer for the
:44:58. > :45:02.Northern Ireland Assembly, there is not the legal adviser. And Professor
:45:03. > :45:06.Rick Wilford doesn't know what he is doing?
:45:07. > :45:10.The advice from the Assembly is that opposition is a devolved matter and
:45:11. > :45:12.when you read through Reg's amendment we can change that in the
:45:13. > :45:17.Assembly and that is the best vehicle to do it.
:45:18. > :45:23.Reg talks about being snuffed out by the DUP and Sinn Fein if they wanted
:45:24. > :45:31.to. You mention a few things like the Afive, it is hardly a ringing
:45:32. > :45:36.endorsement of the Ulster Unionist Party being in government. -- the
:45:37. > :45:40.A5. This is a debate we should be all on. You cannot do that while in
:45:41. > :45:46.government and fighting a culture war at the same time. All of those
:45:47. > :45:50.things contradict each other. John is arguing to totally different
:45:51. > :45:54.things. Whether due as a party are in opposition is one issue. What I
:45:55. > :45:58.am dealing with is providing a structural mechanism to allow it to
:45:59. > :46:02.happen at Westminster where it cannot be interfered with by
:46:03. > :46:06.Stormont. Otherwise the parties that control Stormont can snuff you out
:46:07. > :46:11.at any time. You accept you can do it at Stormont?
:46:12. > :46:15.No, you cannot do that. You can.
:46:16. > :46:20.The legal advice is clear. You can change standing orders, not
:46:21. > :46:24.primary legislation. But the place to do primary
:46:25. > :46:29.legislation is at Stormont. It is not, you are totally wrong. I would
:46:30. > :46:32.welcome him to the debate behaviour is doing something, particularly
:46:33. > :46:38.around designation. We will leave it there, thank you
:46:39. > :46:41.both for now. Let's hear from our commentators,
:46:42. > :46:46.Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Sam McBride. Sam, some people think we
:46:47. > :46:49.may be dancing on the head of a pin, others think this is a fundamental
:46:50. > :46:56.issue that needs to be clarified, which is it for you? It is both.
:46:57. > :47:00.Sitting on the fence! It is going to be teased out at Westminster,
:47:01. > :47:04.whether the government takes this as an amendment to its bill.
:47:05. > :47:07.If it does, and Lord Empey as closer links to the Tories through the
:47:08. > :47:13.history of the Ulster Unionist Party, and if they do then clearly
:47:14. > :47:17.the legal advice that the government has is that it can. If they do not,
:47:18. > :47:20.there will be a question over that. There are two separate issues here.
:47:21. > :47:26.Is there a mechanism for opposition? Sometimes I think public
:47:27. > :47:32.unhappiness at Stormont has forced a debate into the parties, where the
:47:33. > :47:38.Ulster Unionist Party is reluctant about this, increasingly there is
:47:39. > :47:42.this realisation that something has to be done, and the debate has moved
:47:43. > :47:46.on to two separate ways to do the same thing. What is your opinion on
:47:47. > :47:53.where authority arrived as Michael resides?
:47:54. > :47:57.You are an academic and you know Rick Wilford and Alex Kane very
:47:58. > :48:03.well, you know the territory very well, do you side with John or Reg?
:48:04. > :48:06.I am not a legal expert. I am not prepared to side with
:48:07. > :48:10.either of them. I am heartened by this debate, today, because it puts
:48:11. > :48:15.the issue of opposition squarely onto the agenda. Last year the
:48:16. > :48:18.Assembly and review committee looked at this issue specifically. They put
:48:19. > :48:21.out a call for a consultation. Not many people got involved in the
:48:22. > :48:30.debate at the time under this forces us to have a thorough and robust
:48:31. > :48:33.debate on the mechanisms for an opposition and what that may mean
:48:34. > :48:37.for Northern Ireland, particularly for things like who would chair the
:48:38. > :48:42.Public Accounts Committee? Northern Ireland is the only area in the UK
:48:43. > :48:46.that has a Public Accounts Committee not chaired by the member of the
:48:47. > :48:51.opposition. That is important to me because an opposition at its core is
:48:52. > :48:54.about good governance and holding the government to account. You
:48:55. > :48:57.cannot hold yourself to account if you are holding the office and
:48:58. > :49:01.holding the accountability mechanisms, as well. That is why
:49:02. > :49:05.this debate, complicated as it may seem, is important. It is
:49:06. > :49:10.fundamental. The debate that has been hand, that
:49:11. > :49:14.people outside of the political village have had come is forcing the
:49:15. > :49:20.pace on this. -- the debate that has been hand.
:49:21. > :49:23.?15 million has been lost out of the executive budget already this year
:49:24. > :49:28.because of our failure to agree on welfare reform. The finance minister
:49:29. > :49:31.warned this week the penalty is expected to increase significantly.
:49:32. > :49:34.The welfare reform Bill was pulled in April because of a lack of
:49:35. > :49:38.agreement with the DUP blaming Sinn Fein for a delay. The finance
:49:39. > :49:43.minister, Simon Hamilton, said he was disappointed no progress had
:49:44. > :49:46.been made. I will have to return to the welfare reform issue.
:49:47. > :49:50.I am hugely disappointed no progress has been made on this issue. As a
:49:51. > :49:55.result, the executive had no option but to set aside ?50 million to
:49:56. > :49:57.cover the cost of financial penalties for the remaining three
:49:58. > :50:02.months of this financial year. This, in effect, as one colleague
:50:03. > :50:07.described it, is dead money, returning to the Treasury, which is
:50:08. > :50:11.now unable to be spent on services that benefit our citizens. Those who
:50:12. > :50:17.resist, Mr Speaker, the inevitability of welfare reform, can
:50:18. > :50:21.answer why our health budget, roads budget or schools budget has to lose
:50:22. > :50:26.out this year. It is my party's view that in terms
:50:27. > :50:31.of the ?15 million of welfare money, that is not dead money. That
:50:32. > :50:38.15 million is still in the pockets of many low income people. It is
:50:39. > :50:41.more likely to be spent, in terms of local economy and retail and other
:50:42. > :50:47.areas. That 15 million is not dead money, it is money that is quite
:50:48. > :50:55.important to the local economy. The differing views of Simon Hamilton
:50:56. > :51:02.and Daithi McKay. With me is Les Allamby, an expert in
:51:03. > :51:06.welfare law. Where do we stand on this complicated issue? All of the
:51:07. > :51:08.main political parties are critical of welfare reform as it is in
:51:09. > :51:13.Britain. You can understand why, because
:51:14. > :51:18.Sheffield Hallam University recently did a survey that said ?750 million
:51:19. > :51:22.will come out of the economy if we slavishly follow the GB reform, and
:51:23. > :51:27.of the local authorities across the UK seven out of the top 20 were
:51:28. > :51:33.actually in Northern Ireland. Where we are is the two main parties in
:51:34. > :51:36.government, Sinn Fein and the DUP, worked very hard over the summer to
:51:37. > :51:39.try and get a deal, and they got a measure of agreement on a number of
:51:40. > :51:45.issues on this in the public domain, such as the bedroom tax
:51:46. > :51:49.which has gone very badly in Britain. They will only introduce it
:51:50. > :51:53.for new claimants. You think that is the deal they have reached? That is
:51:54. > :51:55.not the whole of the deal but it is part of it.
:51:56. > :51:59.There are other parts of the deal, I think they have followed the
:52:00. > :52:02.Scottish model, which is to put more money into what will be called the
:52:03. > :52:08.discretionary support fund here and to do other things. Where the two
:52:09. > :52:12.parties are parting company that at the moment is that is the deal as
:52:13. > :52:18.far as the DUP are concerned, but for Sinn Fein I think the issue is,
:52:19. > :52:21.is that a staging post in the deal? There is the added complicity for
:52:22. > :52:25.Sinn Fein that they have been very critical of the South's coalition
:52:26. > :52:32.austerity policies and therefore they have an awkward position of, if
:52:33. > :52:35.they implement austerity there in Northern Ireland, they obviously
:52:36. > :52:39.have a very strong equality agenda, but welfare reform will increase
:52:40. > :52:44.economic and social inequality. They are between a rock and a hard
:52:45. > :52:48.place, Sinn Fein. People would say that if the bones of a deal are in
:52:49. > :52:52.existence, the sooner they get it published and signed up to in public
:52:53. > :52:56.the better. Potentially, Northern Ireland plc is
:52:57. > :53:01.losing ?5 million per month now to the Treasury again. We know that has
:53:02. > :53:04.not been imposed as yet, but potentially the amount of money we
:53:05. > :53:10.are going to lose from our budget is significant.
:53:11. > :53:14.We had an earlier legal debate, and there is -- interesting legal debate
:53:15. > :53:19.about how the Treasury can implement the ?5 million financial penalty. Do
:53:20. > :53:23.you think it is a hollow threat? I don't think it is a hollow threat,
:53:24. > :53:26.because they could do it relatively quickly.
:53:27. > :53:32.On the other hand, I think it is clearly important. We would have
:53:33. > :53:36.been pushed into a decision much more quickly if welfare reform and
:53:37. > :53:39.universal credit and Personal Independence Payments had gone with
:53:40. > :53:44.the timetable in Britain, but it's slowed down on the universal credit
:53:45. > :53:48.side because of problems with IP. In my view on the Personal Independence
:53:49. > :53:52.Payments side it has slowed down because it has played very badly for
:53:53. > :53:55.people with disabilities and the government has slowed that down
:53:56. > :53:59.because of an election. Therefore most of the pain will be felt in the
:54:00. > :54:03.early period of the next government. That has given us some breathing
:54:04. > :54:07.space. I would personally like to see what the two parties agree on
:54:08. > :54:11.being published, so that we can see where we are now and then have a
:54:12. > :54:17.debate about other things we may want to do above and beyond that.
:54:18. > :54:20.The two main parties may agree on something of deal to move this
:54:21. > :54:23.forward, but it requires wider society to agree on that.
:54:24. > :54:29.But also, critically, the other parties at Stormont.
:54:30. > :54:33.Absolutely, and both the Ulster Unionist Party, particularly Michael
:54:34. > :54:40.Copeland as the spokesperson, and the SDLP have been largely kept out
:54:41. > :54:43.of the loop, and they are particularly very critical. One of
:54:44. > :54:47.our worries is that what will happen with welfare reform is it will
:54:48. > :54:52.become a political football, whereas actually what we are dealing with is
:54:53. > :54:58.the importance of Social Security for people, particularly of working
:54:59. > :55:00.age, and it may well prove to be counterintuitive, just as the
:55:01. > :55:04.economy is getting back on its feet, that we do the number of things in
:55:05. > :55:08.Social Security that actually take us in the other direction and have a
:55:09. > :55:15.negative impact on economic recovery. It is a tough, bread and
:55:16. > :55:19.butter issue for our politicians to deal with this. What makes it
:55:20. > :55:25.interesting is that it is outside the usual binary political debate.
:55:26. > :55:30.It is. If we look at the local authorities worst affected by this -
:55:31. > :55:36.Belfast, Strabane, Coleraine - it affects heartlands of both the main
:55:37. > :55:39.political parties. This will play very badly in the heartlands of both
:55:40. > :55:44.the DUP and Sinn Fein, and they are both very aware of that. Therefore,
:55:45. > :55:49.the politics of this are really important as well as the actual
:55:50. > :55:53.outcomes for the people on the ground. If the Personal Independence
:55:54. > :55:57.Payments are introduced as it is, then 25% of people of working age
:55:58. > :56:01.under Disability Living Allowance will lose benefit altogether when
:56:02. > :56:04.they move across to that. That is a lot of money coming out of the local
:56:05. > :56:09.economy, a lot of hardship, and that will have to be picked up somewhere
:56:10. > :56:13.else as -- in terms of health or housing problems. In Britain this is
:56:14. > :56:17.happening, other places are happy that Michael having to pick up the
:56:18. > :56:23.slack. It is not saving the money the government originally intended.
:56:24. > :56:31.-- other places are having to pick up the slack.
:56:32. > :56:38.Cathy, do you get the sense that the two main parties are inching toward
:56:39. > :56:42.something of agreement on this? Inching is probably the right word.
:56:43. > :56:45.There is the possibility of an agreement on the horizon, in part
:56:46. > :56:51.driven by the fact that there may be penalties brought to bear on others.
:56:52. > :56:54.Simon Hamilton has said he has kept aside 50 million to pay for the
:56:55. > :57:04.first quarter of penalties at ?5 billion per month. -- 15 million. ?5
:57:05. > :57:09.million per month. The Treasury has said they will levy the penalty if
:57:10. > :57:12.they did not detect any progress. Progress and agreement are two
:57:13. > :57:16.different things, and I think the two main parties can say they are
:57:17. > :57:20.inching towards an agreed position on this, so they are making progress
:57:21. > :57:26.without moving very fast. The reason for that, I think, is that moving at
:57:27. > :57:29.a slow pace allows the politicians in Northern Ireland to really zone
:57:30. > :57:34.in non-where the problems are in the rest of the UK, so that those
:57:35. > :57:38.mistakes are not made here, for example around the competing
:57:39. > :57:42.problems that they have had. It sounds a little bit like a carrot
:57:43. > :57:47.and stick approach on the behalf of the Treasury.
:57:48. > :57:52.Do you think this matter will be sorted out clearly once and for all.
:57:53. > :57:55.No, because I think last year Nelson McCausland said publicly is that
:57:56. > :58:00.four of the six areas he had agreed behind the scenes with the
:58:01. > :58:03.government would be concessions to Northern Ireland.
:58:04. > :58:06.We seem to be no further forward. I find it extraordinary that was not a
:58:07. > :58:12.single party that supports the welfare reforms giving that polling
:58:13. > :58:14.suggest they are popular. -- given that. Let's take a look at the week
:58:15. > :58:30.in 60 seconds with Stephen Walker. It was friends this united as old
:58:31. > :58:35.pals fell out. He was prepared to go forward to the
:58:36. > :58:38.destruction of the party. But the current DUP leader was keeping his
:58:39. > :58:43.own counsel. I do not intend to take part in
:58:44. > :58:46.these kinds of recriminations. Others suggested Doctor Ian Paisley
:58:47. > :58:51.was on his own. What Ian Paisley has done is expose
:58:52. > :58:55.himself as a billy no mates. Another leading man said he would
:58:56. > :58:58.exit the stage - Matt Baggot is to step down as the PSNI chief
:58:59. > :59:02.constable. At Westminster, David Cameron said
:59:03. > :59:08.the government would not intervene and impose a solution over flags,
:59:09. > :59:11.parades and the past. I think if the parties work together and the
:59:12. > :59:14.British and Irish Lions are there to help, I think we can make progress.
:59:15. > :59:19.Even before it hit the stage, a spoof play on the Bible was shown
:59:20. > :59:28.the final curtain by Newtownabbey Council.
:59:29. > :59:36.Stephen Walker reporting. Cathy, has the dust finally settled on the two
:59:37. > :59:40.Ian Paisley documentaries? I don't think so, I think people
:59:41. > :59:44.will be interested in this story for a long time as the uninterested in
:59:45. > :59:50.any political dynasty. It is of particular interest to us because
:59:51. > :59:55.we're from Northern Ireland. -- as they are interested in any political
:59:56. > :00:00.business -- dynasty. But coups were leaders are
:00:01. > :00:03.overthrown, then we come back to the leader to the previous one who had
:00:04. > :00:07.just been deposed. It is fascinating for us at a local level but this is
:00:08. > :00:13.in practice practising politics internationally.
:00:14. > :00:20.The intriguing place -- the intriguing thing is to wear all of
:00:21. > :00:23.this leaves Ian Paisley junior. Even though he seems to have had limited
:00:24. > :00:25.involvement in this year is the one person who remains that could be
:00:26. > :00:27.punished. Thank you both very much for your
:00:28. > :00:42.company. That is it back to you.
:00:43. > :00:45.UKIP leader Nigel Farage is never far away from controversy, but this
:00:46. > :00:48.week he's been outdoing himself. He was hit over the head with a placard
:00:49. > :00:51.by a protester in Kent, provoked outrage by saying women with
:00:52. > :00:58.children are worth less to city firms, and said the ban on owning
:00:59. > :01:01.handguns was 'crackers'. He also seemed less than sure of his party's
:01:02. > :01:05.own policies when I interviewed him on the Daily Politics. And the story
:01:06. > :01:10.that got everyone talking was the suggestion by a UKIP councillor that
:01:11. > :01:13.flooding is linked to gay marriage. We'll talk about all of that in a
:01:14. > :01:22.moment, but first, over to Nigel with the weather. Weather for all
:01:23. > :01:25.areas of the British Isles but definitely not "Bongo Bongo Land."
:01:26. > :01:32.You may have heard about a storm in a tea cup developed when you kip
:01:33. > :01:38.councillor in Oxfordshire blamed the floods on the gay marriage Bill. The
:01:39. > :01:43.old party is focusing on the view of UKIP members like him, even though
:01:44. > :01:49.he had said a sell yuj of things before when a Tory councillor. How
:01:50. > :01:57.quickly things change depending on when the blouse. There are
:01:58. > :02:03.occasional barmy views by people of all persuasions. In Whitby a Labour
:02:04. > :02:08.councillor claimed of fathered a child with an extra terrorist ral,
:02:09. > :02:16.and said his real mother was a 9 foot green alien. And in Wales a
:02:17. > :02:25.councillor thinking about heading off for the
:02:26. > :02:33.slopes, there were flurries of embarrassment for the Tories after
:02:34. > :02:39.Aidan Burly organised a Nazi skiing party in a resort.
:02:40. > :02:44.Anyone heading to Brussels, perhaps on the gravy train, watch out for
:02:45. > :02:49.hot air. In Britain temperatures are rising
:02:50. > :02:56.ahead of the European elections in May. It could get stormy, so advise
:02:57. > :03:01.light aircraft. Watch out for outbreaks of common sense, and no
:03:02. > :03:06.chance of cyclonic fruit cakes. Back to you, Andrew, with the rest of the
:03:07. > :03:10.Sunday Politics. Nick, if it was any other party that
:03:11. > :03:15.had bon through the past week it would be in meltdown. And maybe it
:03:16. > :03:21.is harming UKIP and maybe it isn't. What do you think? That just shows,
:03:22. > :03:27.that great weather forecast, Prince Charles now has a rival to be an
:03:28. > :03:32.excellent weather forecaster, as does the Duchess of Cornwall. It
:03:33. > :03:36.shows why Nigel Farage is the fefr candidate to the European elections.
:03:37. > :03:41.Our invitation to the British people to kick the establishment. The
:03:42. > :03:44.establishment have spent five years that the European Parliament is a
:03:45. > :03:51.waste of time, so who are you going to vote for? A Nigel Farage type of
:03:52. > :03:56.person. What was important about your eadviceration of Nigel Farage
:03:57. > :03:59.on Daily Politics is that when it came to the substance, they
:04:00. > :04:03.flounder. But the point about that party is they may have the thinnest
:04:04. > :04:10.set of policies, but people know what they stand for more than any
:04:11. > :04:15.other parties - get out of Europe, a grammar school in every town. If any
:04:16. > :04:21.other leading politician called for an end to the ban on handguns, at a
:04:22. > :04:24.time when we've seen these appalling gun deaths in the United States, now
:04:25. > :04:29.almost one every week in some terrible siege in a school. It would
:04:30. > :04:39.be a crisis. It seems to wash off him. He's got congenital
:04:40. > :04:44.foot-and-mouthitis. Straight into another wild nothing to do with why
:04:45. > :04:48.people might vote UKIP. I don't think people are desperate to have
:04:49. > :04:54.handgun licences back in this country. It is such an unusual
:04:55. > :05:01.phenomenon, UKIP, that if this was a Tory or a Labour or a Lib Dem saying
:05:02. > :05:06.it, we've seen the damage done to the Lib Dems on a much more serious
:05:07. > :05:09.manner, we would say this is terminal. But maybe it adds to this
:05:10. > :05:16.image that we are not like the other parties. I think that is it. We keep
:05:17. > :05:20.waiting for these scandals and embarrassments to do damage to
:05:21. > :05:27.UKIP's poll ratings, but it's not working. It is ultimately because if
:05:28. > :05:32.you are an antiestablishment party, if you are an anti-system party, the
:05:33. > :05:38.rules of the game which apply to the establishment parties don't apply to
:05:39. > :05:42.you. And the more ramshackle and embarrassing you are, the more
:05:43. > :05:49.authentic you seem. It what be take something for them not to finish
:05:50. > :05:53.second in May. Do they spend the following 12 months sinking in the
:05:54. > :05:56.poll snoos And George Osborne's strategy is fame everything as
:05:57. > :06:00.Labour versus the Conservatives. The electorate will have their fun in
:06:01. > :06:07.May. Maybe the Tories will be beat into third place but in thejection
:06:08. > :06:15.is that -- but in the general election it is Labour versus the
:06:16. > :06:19.Tories. The Conservative Party will run around, 46 letters to Graham
:06:20. > :06:24.Brady, a leadership contest. That sort of scenario. UKIP, if it rules
:06:25. > :06:28.well in the European elections, could cause big trouble for Mr
:06:29. > :06:35.Cameron and Mr Clegg couldn't it? The big point about this, David
:06:36. > :06:40.Cameron said this is not a political party but a pressure group. This is
:06:41. > :06:45.the way to look at UKIP, and the way it is used by people in the right of
:06:46. > :06:52.the party, who say we have to do this. I like the policy of painting
:06:53. > :07:04.the trains in their old liveries. It would be like my old train set. I
:07:05. > :07:13.like the bigger passports. Pre-GNER... And London and Midland.
:07:14. > :07:17.I used to be a train spotter. Gordon Birtwhistle has been on the
:07:18. > :07:23.phone. Good to know you are watching but pity you are not here. He wanted
:07:24. > :07:27.to clarify he had constituency commitments to prevent him coming on
:07:28. > :07:31.the show to talk about becoming leader of the party, but he didn't
:07:32. > :07:34.dispute anything we said on the show.
:07:35. > :07:37.Yesterday, Ed Balls said that housing investment will be a central
:07:38. > :07:40.priority for the next Labour Government. It's a big issue, as the
:07:41. > :07:43.lack of new homes pushes up the the price of owning or renting. Well,
:07:44. > :07:46.tomorrow the Tories will announce what they say is the most ambitious
:07:47. > :07:53.programme of affordable housebuilding for 20 years. The
:07:54. > :07:59.Government sees housing as a really important part of the economy.
:08:00. > :08:04.That's why we are announcing a ?23 billion package for 165,000 new
:08:05. > :08:09.affordable homes. So individual builders, councils, housing
:08:10. > :08:14.associations can bid for that money. Phase one, which we are halfway
:08:15. > :08:18.through at the moment, we've built 170,000 houses. 99,000 already
:08:19. > :08:25.coming out of the ground, so we've made real progress on that. So,
:08:26. > :08:30.165,000 new, affordable homes. It is a lot. Let me add three more words.
:08:31. > :08:34.Over three years. It is not such a lot. It is not, and Labour's
:08:35. > :08:40.commitment is 200,000 homes a year and even that isn't enough. The
:08:41. > :08:45.problem here is that the vest interest is with people who already
:08:46. > :08:47.have homes. They have a vote in the system through the planning
:08:48. > :08:52.regulations. In London there is a gap in the hedge through Richmond
:08:53. > :08:57.Park through which you should be able to see St Paul's Cathedral.
:08:58. > :09:02.That's why you cannot build homes where you want them. I don't think
:09:03. > :09:10.we want to build homes over Richmond Park. He wasn't saying that. That's
:09:11. > :09:14.dies an Tyne -- that's Byzantine. You've got to deal with supply,
:09:15. > :09:19.which is why Labour is talking about 200,000 a year, and what George
:09:20. > :09:24.Osborne has done with supply is helping with demand. We know the
:09:25. > :09:30.Help to Buy Scheme is pretty dangerous, and Mark Carney is keen
:09:31. > :09:36.to put the break on that. If you are to deal with supply, you have to do
:09:37. > :09:40.radical things. Chris Huhne talked about on brownfield sites you can
:09:41. > :09:43.tax people who are holding the land as if the development has taken
:09:44. > :09:47.place. Then if you are really going to deal with it you have to talk
:09:48. > :09:52.about the greenfield sites, and you have to deal with the garden cities
:09:53. > :09:56.argument, which is too much for the Tories. All the parties seem to
:09:57. > :09:59.agree building new houses is a political winner. I hope that they
:10:00. > :10:05.are right. I'm not sure they are. The housing market is the example of
:10:06. > :10:10.what economists call the insider in-outsider problem. People who are
:10:11. > :10:16.already homeowners have no rational incentive to vote for more housing
:10:17. > :10:19.stock. Even if you leave aside the Conservative arable objections, if
:10:20. > :10:24.you are a homeowner there is an interest to stick with the planning
:10:25. > :10:28.promise that we have. So then we are stuck between a rock and a hard
:10:29. > :10:33.place. Not only are we growing at the moment but our population is
:10:34. > :10:38.growing. I've seen projects that in quite quickly we will overtake
:10:39. > :10:41.Germany and become the largest populated country in Europe. If
:10:42. > :10:47.that's the case we've got to build homes. We have. If you look at Tower
:10:48. > :10:52.Hamlets in London, the population is r ging higher than the number of
:10:53. > :10:56.dwelling. Classically the theory's been young people are most affected
:10:57. > :11:02.by this and they don't vote much. But when their parents have young
:11:03. > :11:07.Johnny stuck at home at 37, that's an electoral issue. That's why the
:11:08. > :11:11.garden cities project is interesting, because they finance
:11:12. > :11:16.themselves. You zone it for development, it is worth ?2 million
:11:17. > :11:22.an acre and then you can build on it. But who is going to want the
:11:23. > :11:28.greenfield sites gone. And how quickly can we build garden cities
:11:29. > :11:33.today? Some were started before the Town and Country Planning Act. I've
:11:34. > :11:37.read stats about the way Chinese and Japanese are building houses and
:11:38. > :11:41.they were slower than that. Here's a thought, sticking on the housing
:11:42. > :11:46.theme. Ed Miliband came up with the energy freeze, a populist
:11:47. > :11:52.interventionist move. Then the use it or lose it to land developers.
:11:53. > :11:56.Then breaking up the banks. Now the 50p tax rate. How much would you put
:11:57. > :12:01.on Labour coming up for rent controls? That's already a big
:12:02. > :12:06.split. They are split already on it. They have. In London it is a popular
:12:07. > :12:10.policy. It might not play well in the rest of the country. I would say
:12:11. > :12:14.50-50 on that. I think Labour supporting rent controls like the
:12:15. > :12:18.Tories having a go at welfare. The policy may be individually popular
:12:19. > :12:23.but it sends an impression about the party which might be less attract
:12:24. > :12:26.active. It confirms underlying suspicions that vote these guys into
:12:27. > :12:31.power and suddenly they are tampering with the private economy.
:12:32. > :12:35.The memories of the '70s when Governments tried and failed to do
:12:36. > :12:37.that. It is riskier than a superficial reading of the polls
:12:38. > :12:40.would superficial reading of the polls
:12:41. > :12:45.would suggest. One to watch? I think they are looking at it. That was the
:12:46. > :12:50.key message of the Ed Balls speech on housing, is looking at supply and
:12:51. > :12:54.how you get to that 200,000 figure a year, which is substantially more
:12:55. > :12:59.than what Kris Hopkins is talking about. What we didn't get to talk
:13:00. > :13:03.about, remember we had Michael Wilshaw on, the Chief Inspector of
:13:04. > :13:07.Schools. We all consumed was Mr Gove's man, the Education
:13:08. > :13:11.Secretary's man. Now according to the Sunday Times he is spitting
:13:12. > :13:15.blood about the way Mr Gove and his office are speaking about him behind
:13:16. > :13:19.the scenes. We've checked the quotes and he stands by them, so I think
:13:20. > :13:23.we'll have to have the head of Ofsted back on the programme. If you
:13:24. > :13:27.are watching, we're here. All that to the Lib Dems who didn't come on
:13:28. > :13:30.today. That's all for today. Thanks to all
:13:31. > :13:34.my guests. The Daily Politics is back on Monday at midday on BBC Two,
:13:35. > :13:35.and I'll be here again next week. Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:36. > :14:13.Sunday Politics. Britain, with 120,000 soldiers,
:14:14. > :14:21.is now at war with Germany This would be the first
:14:22. > :14:30.truly modern war.