26/11/2017

0:00:36 > 0:00:38Morning everyone and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:38 > 0:00:40I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:40 > 0:00:43And this is your essential briefing on everything that's

0:00:43 > 0:00:46happening this Sunday morning in the world of politics.

0:00:46 > 0:00:48Ireland says it will "continue to play tough until the end"

0:00:48 > 0:00:50over the Irish border.

0:00:50 > 0:00:52As Dublin threatens to derail Brexit trade

0:00:52 > 0:00:56talks, vice-president of the European Parliament Mairead

0:00:56 > 0:00:59McGuiness tells us why she thinks a hard border would cause havoc.

0:00:59 > 0:01:01Leading Brexiteer and former Northern Ireland Secretary Owen

0:01:01 > 0:01:05Paterson will debate with her live.

0:01:05 > 0:01:09It was billed as a make or break moment for the Chancellor -

0:01:09 > 0:01:11Phillip Hammond appears to have avoided an omni or even

0:01:11 > 0:01:12a mini-shambles.

0:01:12 > 0:01:15We'll get Budget reaction from the man who last month tried

0:01:15 > 0:01:18to topple Theresa May - former Tory Chairman, Grant Shapps.

0:01:19 > 0:01:25And what did the Chancellor do for the North?

0:01:28 > 0:01:32And in Northern Ireland: A rousing reception for Arlene Foster

0:01:32 > 0:01:35at her party conference as she attacks Sinn Fein,

0:01:35 > 0:01:38rules out a border in the Irish Sea and says time is running out

0:01:38 > 0:01:41to restore devolution.

0:01:43 > 0:01:46All that coming up in the programme.

0:01:46 > 0:01:49So, no omni-shambles Budget.

0:01:49 > 0:01:52But don't worry, if you're a fan of the shambolic you'll

0:01:52 > 0:01:53love our political panel, Sam Coates, Zoe Williams

0:01:53 > 0:01:55and Iain Martin.

0:01:55 > 0:01:58Welcome to the programme.

0:01:58 > 0:02:00It has been the Budget that's dominated the political week.

0:02:00 > 0:02:04There was no pasty tax or national insurance U-turn -

0:02:04 > 0:02:07but there were sharp downgrades for growth and productivity,

0:02:07 > 0:02:11offset by enough optimism to cheer the Tory benches.

0:02:15 > 0:02:19This week's Budget was billed as a make or break for Philip Hammond.

0:02:19 > 0:02:22His last effort in March contained a manifesto-mangling national

0:02:22 > 0:02:26insurance rise which lasted barely a week.

0:02:26 > 0:02:28Humiliated today, Chancellor?

0:02:28 > 0:02:30Will you resign?

0:02:33 > 0:02:35This time, his cheery demeanour was perhaps designed

0:02:35 > 0:02:37to confound his critics who think his outlook on Brexit

0:02:37 > 0:02:40is, well, miserable.

0:02:40 > 0:02:44What he's doing is very close to sabotage.

0:02:44 > 0:02:49Regrettably, our productivity performance continues to disappoint.

0:02:49 > 0:02:52But the downbeat tone wasn't down to Hammond,

0:02:52 > 0:02:58it was the independent Office for Budget Responsibility,

0:02:58 > 0:02:59the lower productivity projections lead to growth forecasts

0:02:59 > 0:03:02of less than 2%.

0:03:02 > 0:03:06Here's the new realistic forecast, average growth of just 1.4% a year.

0:03:06 > 0:03:09A slowdown that won't go away.

0:03:12 > 0:03:15The Chancellor may not have been able to drive up

0:03:15 > 0:03:17productivity and growth, but he has a cunning plan to remove

0:03:17 > 0:03:20the need to drive at all.

0:03:20 > 0:03:23David Cameron's old mate Jeremy Clarkson is reported to be

0:03:23 > 0:03:24less than impressed.

0:03:24 > 0:03:26Jeremy Clarkson doesn't like them.

0:03:26 > 0:03:31But there are many other good reasons to pursue this technology.

0:03:31 > 0:03:37So today we step up our support for it.

0:03:37 > 0:03:39Sorry, Jeremy, but definitely not the first time you've been

0:03:39 > 0:03:41snubbed by Hammond and May.

0:03:41 > 0:03:44More money for the English health service, a Brexit fund

0:03:44 > 0:03:45and abolishing stamp duty for first-time buyers

0:03:45 > 0:03:46lifted the mood.

0:03:46 > 0:03:50I commend this statement to the house.

0:03:56 > 0:03:59But senior figures in the NHS said the new money was not enough

0:03:59 > 0:04:02and less, in this Budget at least, than the amount pledged for Brexit,

0:04:02 > 0:04:05giving some Remainers plenty of fun on Twitter.

0:04:07 > 0:04:10It turned out the stamp duty changes would mainly help

0:04:10 > 0:04:13people selling a house, not buying them.

0:04:13 > 0:04:17Tweaks to the Universal Credit system soothed Tory concerns,

0:04:17 > 0:04:18but they didn't calm the Labour leader.

0:04:18 > 0:04:21Uncaring!

0:04:21 > 0:04:25The uncaring, uncooth attitude of certain members opposite!

0:04:26 > 0:04:27Order!

0:04:28 > 0:04:28Order!

0:04:30 > 0:04:33And his Shadow Chancellor had some number trouble.

0:04:33 > 0:04:37How much do we now spend on paying the interest of our national debt.

0:04:37 > 0:04:38A lot.

0:04:38 > 0:04:39How much?

0:04:39 > 0:04:41Well, I'll give you the figure.

0:04:41 > 0:04:43I'll send you a note on the figure.

0:04:43 > 0:04:44You don't know?

0:04:44 > 0:04:45I know the figure...

0:04:45 > 0:04:46How much?

0:04:46 > 0:04:47I'll send it.

0:04:47 > 0:04:49Well, you tell me now.

0:04:49 > 0:04:52The forecast may be sticky, but at least the Daily Mail

0:04:52 > 0:04:53had a positive outlook.

0:04:53 > 0:04:57Phil was no longer a miserable donkey.

0:04:57 > 0:05:00And by the end of the week, the Chancellor could still smile.

0:05:00 > 0:05:02He might even stay in Number 11 long enough to deliver

0:05:02 > 0:05:06next year's Budget.

0:05:07 > 0:05:09We're joined now by the former Conservative Party

0:05:09 > 0:05:13Chairman, Grant Shapps.

0:05:13 > 0:05:18Thank you very much for coming in. No banana skin in the Budget for

0:05:18 > 0:05:21Philip Hammond, but really dismal growth prospects. What is the

0:05:21 > 0:05:26government back to doing wrong? Well, first of all, he cheered up

0:05:26 > 0:05:29the backbenches by giving quite an upbeat assessment. The economy is

0:05:29 > 0:05:37still growing, the jobs factory of Europe. Not words we are used to

0:05:37 > 0:05:41hearing from Philip Hammond.But overall, growth prospects are really

0:05:41 > 0:05:48bad, they have been significantly downgraded.Of course, the really

0:05:48 > 0:05:50big story is the Office for Budget Responsibility say we are going to

0:05:50 > 0:05:54grow at 1.5%, not 2%. That is a real problem. I thought Philip's

0:05:54 > 0:05:58presentation of the issue was interesting. He said this is of the

0:05:58 > 0:06:01outside of our control, it is the office of Budget response ability.

0:06:01 > 0:06:05It is to do with productivity, who knows what that is made up of? That

0:06:05 > 0:06:09sort of excuses get mug from having to do anything. There are things we

0:06:09 > 0:06:14can do to attract business to this country. You have the tax base, the

0:06:14 > 0:06:18attitude towards business. We spent quite a while looking like we were

0:06:18 > 0:06:24not interested in business, business being thought of as bad. I am

0:06:24 > 0:06:28pleased to see that is changing.You think the few has a pro-business

0:06:28 > 0:06:31attitude that wasn't there a year ago?We have them locked out of

0:06:31 > 0:06:35Downing Street for a while, sector leaders could not express their

0:06:35 > 0:06:40concerns. Some conference speeches that business as the bad guys rather

0:06:40 > 0:06:45than job creators. That seems to have gone and I welcome it.Why?

0:06:45 > 0:06:49Because it is not realistic to believe that business is evil and

0:06:49 > 0:06:56bad. Business people that create the jobs for this country, the well for

0:06:56 > 0:06:59this country...But why do you think the government but robust change the

0:06:59 > 0:07:06message on that?It is hard to know what created that. Since the

0:07:06 > 0:07:09election we have a change in emphasis. Business leaders are now

0:07:09 > 0:07:11welcomed to come and talk to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor

0:07:11 > 0:07:15about what is going on. One thing we could do now, we are leaving Europe,

0:07:15 > 0:07:18we had all of those red tape challenges in the Coalition

0:07:18 > 0:07:21Government but we always got stuck when it got to the EU. We had to

0:07:21 > 0:07:25say, we can't do anything about that red tape. We can now go back on

0:07:25 > 0:07:29that. I would like the cupboard to go further and not just accept

0:07:29 > 0:07:31figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility. I'm actually

0:07:31 > 0:07:36doubtful about that and I think that Philip Hammond is as well. Growth of

0:07:36 > 0:07:44productivity is a difficult thing to measure. This country trades more

0:07:44 > 0:07:48online than any other country in the world. We are top of that league

0:07:48 > 0:07:51table. That has to be a more efficient way to do business. Yet it

0:07:51 > 0:07:55does not seem to be reflected in productivity.They are forecasts,

0:07:55 > 0:07:59the productivity figures. But the middle, things could be worse, the

0:07:59 > 0:08:06OBR say. The... Seems to say these are the projections, we hope it

0:08:06 > 0:08:12isn't that. Is it the Buttler's job to do something about productivity?

0:08:12 > 0:08:18The government EU has a role to play. I started a printing business

0:08:18 > 0:08:22which still exists to this day. Uncertainty over Brexit could lead a

0:08:22 > 0:08:26business like that to delay purchasing a new press. One that is

0:08:26 > 0:08:31likely to be faster, less setup time, print stuff faster.

0:08:31 > 0:08:36Uncertainty in the economy slows that down. Of course the Government

0:08:36 > 0:08:42has a role. It cannot act the way it treats taxation, investment, it can

0:08:42 > 0:08:46encourage businesses. Actually, I suspect what the Office for Budget

0:08:46 > 0:08:50Responsibility has done is said, oh, all of this uncertainty has lead to

0:08:50 > 0:08:54slower productivity and therefore we will continue projecting forward,

0:08:54 > 0:09:00almost ad infinitum. The projections went up five years. If we can get

0:09:00 > 0:09:04the Brexit uncertainty out of the way...That is what I was about to

0:09:04 > 0:09:08say. The great uncertainty is under Brexit. We are not entering a period

0:09:08 > 0:09:11where things will be more certain people can confidently make

0:09:11 > 0:09:15investment decisions, nobody knows what the future trading relationship

0:09:15 > 0:09:19will be.I think Government can help with that. If you have a Government

0:09:19 > 0:09:23that, at its heart, fundamentally, is singing from the same hymn sheet,

0:09:23 > 0:09:28you saw Number 10 and Number 11, finally, a bit of banter between the

0:09:28 > 0:09:38two of them, the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, they went out on

0:09:38 > 0:09:40Thursday and did a visit together. You have a Cabinet meeting reported

0:09:40 > 0:09:43from Tuesday where they are agreeing how to go forward collectively on

0:09:43 > 0:09:45Europe. If you can have the central government working in unison, it

0:09:45 > 0:09:48gives business of evidence, it gives the economy confidence that maybe

0:09:48 > 0:09:51you can get to faster growth by having better productivity and more

0:09:51 > 0:09:55inward investment.Six weeks ago you were calling for the Prime Minister

0:09:55 > 0:10:00to stand down. You were outed as leading a coup against her. Have you

0:10:00 > 0:10:04changed your mind?I saw your lead-in, calling colleagues that

0:10:04 > 0:10:07want to go and speak to the Prime Minister about a perfectly sensible

0:10:07 > 0:10:11subject that she herself has asked for colleagues' opinions on, how

0:10:11 > 0:10:17long should I be in this role, to call it a plot is tabloid. The

0:10:17 > 0:10:19reality is, of course colleagues should be able to have that

0:10:19 > 0:10:23conversation. We do not live in North Korea. We shouldn't be not

0:10:23 > 0:10:25allowed to express views, nor do they disappear if you don't express

0:10:25 > 0:10:29them.You said your colleagues have buried their heads in the sand,

0:10:29 > 0:10:34hoping things would get better. It never got better for Gordon Brown or

0:10:34 > 0:10:40John Major, it will not get that for Theresa May. Have you changed your

0:10:40 > 0:10:43mindI think that colleagues should be allowed to have views and express

0:10:43 > 0:10:48them. My views have not changed. However, I also accept the reality

0:10:48 > 0:10:53of the situation, that we are in a very sensitive period with Brexit

0:10:53 > 0:10:58negotiations. Six weeks ago is six weeks ago. Time moves on and Brexit

0:10:58 > 0:11:03negotiations wait 101. What we have to do have is a Government that is

0:11:03 > 0:11:10capable of singing from the same hymn sheet, going to Brussels. If

0:11:10 > 0:11:15you have Number 10 and Number 11 at each other's throats, when you have

0:11:15 > 0:11:22people been briefed against the centre, whips that are more

0:11:22 > 0:11:25interested in... We have mutineers on the front of the Telegraph, 50

0:11:25 > 0:11:29people that wanted not to have the date for Brexit in the bill. I don't

0:11:29 > 0:11:34happen to agree with those people. But to have colleagues accused of

0:11:34 > 0:11:37being mutineers because they have a slightly diverted the view is

0:11:37 > 0:11:45ridiculous. -- diverted view. I am pleased what we are seeing now is an

0:11:45 > 0:11:51attitude from the centre saying let's work together, let's not

0:11:51 > 0:11:54briefed against others, let's get on and stop the country from the even

0:11:54 > 0:11:59bigger danger than Brexit, a Jeremy Corbyn government.Stay there for a

0:11:59 > 0:12:05moment. I am going to bring in the panel. You were listening to that

0:12:05 > 0:12:12interview. A change in mood towards the Prime Minister?Haven't seems to

0:12:12 > 0:12:16have cheered up a lot. He seemed to me like a man giving his own leaving

0:12:16 > 0:12:24speech. There was a devil may care attitude aspect, not really backed

0:12:24 > 0:12:28up by what you're saying. They wanted always. There would be OBR

0:12:28 > 0:12:31figures to be nothing to do with a Government. Unfortunately they have

0:12:31 > 0:12:36revised down, there is nothing we can really do. At the same time,

0:12:36 > 0:12:41they wanted to show Conservative policies are capable of driving

0:12:41 > 0:12:45growth. They want to say, unfortunately it is not a generous

0:12:45 > 0:12:48Budget because growth figures are revised downwards, while at the same

0:12:48 > 0:12:52time saying that the OBR is often wrong, who knows if it will be

0:12:52 > 0:12:59correct. I don't think you get any clear analysis from this.Cake and

0:12:59 > 0:13:08eat it?The significance is not really economic, it is political. If

0:13:08 > 0:13:12you go back a week, it seemed possible, likely even, that the

0:13:12 > 0:13:19Chancellor was going to be replaced in a reshuffle expected between now

0:13:19 > 0:13:25and Christmas. He has saved his job. His critics in other parties will

0:13:25 > 0:13:29say, well, his job should be about more than his own personal survival.

0:13:29 > 0:13:36But it alters the dynamics. It means that the government but was not

0:13:36 > 0:13:41quite Chancellor, it means a reshuffle could be less substantial

0:13:41 > 0:13:46than might have been the case. It seems the Tories have had a shocking

0:13:46 > 0:13:51run over the last few months. They were rather buoyed up by it. Not

0:13:51 > 0:13:55that it was a massive success as a Budget, it was just OK. That counts

0:13:55 > 0:13:59for quite a lot at the moment. Listening to what Grant Shapps was

0:13:59 > 0:14:03telling us, it sounds like Theresa May's job is safe as well?I would

0:14:03 > 0:14:08if she is sitting in Downing Street wearing a badge saying Philip

0:14:08 > 0:14:14Hammond saved my job? The point is, just to pull out the camera, the

0:14:14 > 0:14:17fundamentals have not changed. The Conservatives did not win an overall

0:14:17 > 0:14:20majority at the election, they still have to deliver Brexit in an

0:14:20 > 0:14:27incredibly complicated process, that looks intractable with negotiation

0:14:27 > 0:14:30difficulties, particularly with Ireland, but also bringing the

0:14:30 > 0:14:33Cabinet together over some of these incredibly thorny issues about where

0:14:33 > 0:14:43Brexit is going to end up. Although Grant is putting a positive gloss on

0:14:43 > 0:14:45it now, the conference after which he was adjusted people might

0:14:45 > 0:14:51consider her going -- after which he suggested people might consider her

0:14:51 > 0:14:55going, things have not really changed. He says his view has not

0:14:55 > 0:14:59really changed, and I think that many of the people that Grant talks

0:14:59 > 0:15:03to, they have not changed their fundamental view about the talents

0:15:03 > 0:15:06and otherwise of Theresa May. I wonder how many people think what

0:15:06 > 0:15:10Grant thinks at the moment?We will come back to you and ask you that.

0:15:10 > 0:15:14How many people agree with you? Do you still have the same view about

0:15:14 > 0:15:18the Prime Minister?I have said exactly what I think. You don't have

0:15:18 > 0:15:22to second-guess what I think about all of this. Nor do I think it is

0:15:22 > 0:15:29worth day by day giving a running commentary on that. I was heartened

0:15:29 > 0:15:32to see Number 10 and number 11 working together. We can make some

0:15:32 > 0:15:36progress. I think that is a very good thing. The lesson to be

0:15:36 > 0:15:39learned, just because people have diverse views, it has not been there

0:15:39 > 0:15:43should be vilified. I think we were in danger of doing that through the

0:15:43 > 0:15:46whips or Number 10, or what have you. I'm pleased to see we have a

0:15:46 > 0:15:52more mature attitude coming from Downing Street.

0:15:52 > 0:15:56You once said you thought you would make a good Prime Minister yourself,

0:15:56 > 0:16:00do you still think that?The question was do you have the

0:16:00 > 0:16:05required ability to make these decisions and the rest of it. To

0:16:05 > 0:16:08answer that question would be as if to say I don't think she should be

0:16:08 > 0:16:13doing it but that's not what I think at all. I think this country

0:16:13 > 0:16:16requires leadership which unites particularly those involved in the

0:16:16 > 0:16:21Government and I'm pleased that's what we are now starting to get.

0:16:21 > 0:16:26Grant Shapps, thanks for coming to talk to us today.

0:16:26 > 0:16:28Now, the Northern Powerhouse was a phrase coined

0:16:28 > 0:16:29by Philip Hammond's predecessor, George Osborne.

0:16:29 > 0:16:31But Theresa May has insisted that she wouldn't be

0:16:31 > 0:16:32pulling the plug on it.

0:16:32 > 0:16:35So how did it fare in this month's Budget?

0:16:35 > 0:16:37Joining us now from Salford is the Mayor

0:16:37 > 0:16:38of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham.

0:16:38 > 0:16:43Thanks for coming in. I assume you must be very pleased with the Budget

0:16:43 > 0:16:47and the amount of money delivered for the Northern Powerhouse?When I

0:16:47 > 0:16:51came into this job I was clear I would never play politics for the

0:16:51 > 0:16:56sake of it. There was good news in this Budget for Manchester, money

0:16:56 > 0:17:02which we need very much, money to help us tackle rough sleeping.

0:17:02 > 0:17:07Again, a big priority for me. But overall I have to say it is pretty

0:17:07 > 0:17:14thin pickings for the north of England. The headline measure on

0:17:14 > 0:17:16stamp duty massively benefits the South over the north and people here

0:17:16 > 0:17:21who are suffering every day on the rail system, our clapped-out rail

0:17:21 > 0:17:26system, they didn't get any good news in terms of electrification or

0:17:26 > 0:17:35improvement of services. All we got was an -- promise of improvement of

0:17:35 > 0:17:41mobile services.The Government is giving new £12 million to help cover

0:17:41 > 0:17:47the cost relating to the Manchester Arena attack. You must be welcoming

0:17:47 > 0:17:50of that too.This is difficult because I'm conscious whenever this

0:17:50 > 0:17:55issue comes up, I'm conscious of the families. We put our bid in some

0:17:55 > 0:18:01time ago. The cost we have incurred so far is 17 million and we have a

0:18:01 > 0:18:06further 11 million we will incur through the inquest process. We have

0:18:06 > 0:18:09been raising that privately and I haven't gone public on this issue

0:18:09 > 0:18:14until the Prime Minister said last week we would have the answer, and

0:18:14 > 0:18:19we got that on Friday. It falls some way short. I cannot see why the

0:18:19 > 0:18:23Government is not meeting our cost in full. As I said at the beginning,

0:18:23 > 0:18:27I would never make politics out of this issue but when we got our

0:18:27 > 0:18:31answer and it wasn't good enough I had to make our position clear. I

0:18:31 > 0:18:34will be replying to the Prime Minister saying let's sort this out

0:18:34 > 0:18:40properly. I just hope we can now get a full agreement for all of our

0:18:40 > 0:18:45costs from the Government.You've accused the Government before of

0:18:45 > 0:18:49being London centric and ignoring other parts of the UK. Given that

0:18:49 > 0:18:55you have welcomed of the spending measures, do you feel that problem

0:18:55 > 0:19:00has been addressed?Definitely not. The country is London centric. The

0:19:00 > 0:19:05way transport investment is assessed by the Treasury favours the areas

0:19:05 > 0:19:09where there is already greater economic growth. The system is

0:19:09 > 0:19:13biased against the north and that needs to change. In the Budget we

0:19:13 > 0:19:18got a half-hearted commitment to the rail system of the future for the

0:19:18 > 0:19:23north of England but Crossrail 2, the project in London, got more of a

0:19:23 > 0:19:29thumbs up. I'm speaking for people here who feel this has been very

0:19:29 > 0:19:34unfair over decades. We have a transport system here that is

0:19:34 > 0:19:38creaking now and it is completely congested, it isn't working for

0:19:38 > 0:19:42people. The Government needs to grip that problem much more directly. The

0:19:42 > 0:19:47problem I guess with this Budget was there's an elephant in the room and

0:19:47 > 0:19:50that is the Brexit Divorce Bill. There was a feeling for me they were

0:19:50 > 0:19:55not committing money our infrastructure cause of this thing

0:19:55 > 0:20:00looming behind. To have no mention of social care, no mention of police

0:20:00 > 0:20:06funding, these were two gaping holes at the heart of this Budget.Surely

0:20:06 > 0:20:11you think they should be making a generous offer for the Brexit

0:20:11 > 0:20:15divorce settlement? You are not advocating that we walk away without

0:20:15 > 0:20:22paying our dues?No, my point was a different one. It looks like the

0:20:22 > 0:20:25Government is holding back on the investment the north of England

0:20:25 > 0:20:30needs until they have settled this question, but the challenges facing

0:20:30 > 0:20:33our public services and the productivity challenge facing the

0:20:33 > 0:20:37north is urgent and it is critical we get that investment so we can

0:20:37 > 0:20:42rise to the challenge of exit. I saw this as a Budget where the

0:20:42 > 0:20:49Chancellor was holding back. This year of all years, to have no

0:20:49 > 0:20:52mention of police security counterterrorism in the Budget

0:20:52 > 0:20:56seemed a monumental mistake. The police service here has not got much

0:20:56 > 0:21:02left to give. It is down to the bare minimum and we need to see the

0:21:02 > 0:21:06Chancellor bringing forward new funding for the police in the

0:21:06 > 0:21:10December settlement that it's about to get. To have no mention of it

0:21:10 > 0:21:15just seemed to me to be a major mistake.What did you make of Jeremy

0:21:15 > 0:21:23Corbyn's response to the Budget?I thought it was passionate. I don't

0:21:23 > 0:21:29think they will deal with the issue of Universal Credit.It was

0:21:29 > 0:21:34passionate but was it effective?I think so. People want to see people

0:21:34 > 0:21:39speaking with that level of commitment, genuine concern. The

0:21:39 > 0:21:43dangers are still there with Universal Credit. Tinkering with the

0:21:43 > 0:21:46waiting times I don't think will take away the problem that it could

0:21:46 > 0:21:50put more people on our streets, huddled in doorways. The Government

0:21:50 > 0:21:55needs to give a clear commitment that we won't see people spiralling

0:21:55 > 0:21:59into debt and then at the risk of being homeless as a result of

0:21:59 > 0:22:04Universal Credit roll out.The day after the Budget John McDonnell got

0:22:04 > 0:22:10in a muddle over his figures on debt repayment. He must -- you must have

0:22:10 > 0:22:14been cringing as you watched some of those interviews.You always get

0:22:14 > 0:22:20these interviews after the Budget. I have sat in those positions and I

0:22:20 > 0:22:24think it is partly what turns people off politics. I'm not here

0:22:24 > 0:22:28necessarily to speak for the front bench, I thought they mounted a good

0:22:28 > 0:22:34critique of the Budget. What I want is a more wholehearted embrace of

0:22:34 > 0:22:37devolution from both political parties. The challenge the country

0:22:37 > 0:22:42is facing right now is that we are to London centric, Brexit is

0:22:42 > 0:22:46looming, we need investment in the regions and I don't think we can

0:22:46 > 0:22:51bring this power back from Brussels and then keep it all in Westminster.

0:22:51 > 0:22:54We are already in overcentralised country and its crucial the power is

0:22:54 > 0:22:59passed down to places like Greater Manchester and I want to see both

0:22:59 > 0:23:03parties embracing that is part of the response to the referendum.I'm

0:23:03 > 0:23:07not asking you to speak for the Labour front bench, but how did it

0:23:07 > 0:23:11look to you when they were responding to it, you will know

0:23:11 > 0:23:16Labour are trailing in the polls on economic competence - did they do

0:23:16 > 0:23:19enough this week to adjust people's view as to whether or not Labour

0:23:19 > 0:23:24should be put in charge of the economy?That is the challenge that

0:23:24 > 0:23:28the Labour Party has to convince the country it can run a stronger

0:23:28 > 0:23:33economy. The Shadow Chancellor has put investment in infrastructure

0:23:33 > 0:23:37front and centre of what he's saying and I think he's absolutely right to

0:23:37 > 0:23:50do that. The country is crying out for that transport system,

0:23:50 > 0:23:52particularly here in the north that will allow us to improve

0:23:52 > 0:23:54productivity and they are not getting that from the current

0:23:54 > 0:23:56Chancellor. Looming questions about the Divorce Bill, so therefore he

0:23:56 > 0:23:58won't commit to the investment now. What you got from the Shadow

0:23:58 > 0:24:02Chancellor was a clearer analysis of what the country needs, and I think

0:24:02 > 0:24:07that's what people want to hear. Andy Burnham, thank you for coming

0:24:07 > 0:24:10in to talk to us.

0:24:10 > 0:24:13Last week we had a film from Leave campaigner Gisela Stuart on why

0:24:13 > 0:24:16business will continue to prosper across Europe after Brexit.

0:24:16 > 0:24:18This week, London and Dublin have clashed over what will

0:24:18 > 0:24:20happen to the border between Northern Ireland

0:24:20 > 0:24:22and the Irish Republic - something the EU says needs to be

0:24:22 > 0:24:25resolved if Brexit negotiations are to move onto trade next month.

0:24:25 > 0:24:28So today, Irish MEP and vice president of the European

0:24:28 > 0:24:31Parliament, Mairead McGuiness, takes us to the border to explain

0:24:31 > 0:24:36why she thinks Brexit could cause business -

0:24:36 > 0:24:38and the people on the island of Ireland -

0:24:38 > 0:24:40considerable difficulties.

0:24:51 > 0:24:54This is Dundalk in County Louth, a town close to the border

0:24:54 > 0:24:57with Northern Ireland, and close to where I grew up myself.

0:24:57 > 0:25:01Today, I represent the constituency along that 310 mile border.

0:25:01 > 0:25:03With the Brexit negotiations ongoing, people along the border

0:25:03 > 0:25:09are troubled by the uncertainty.

0:25:09 > 0:25:12From Dundalk, you can take a straight road to Northern Ireland

0:25:12 > 0:25:17and there's no stopping.

0:25:17 > 0:25:20At the last count, there are over 300 different road crossings

0:25:20 > 0:25:25between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

0:25:25 > 0:25:27The big question is, what will change post-Brexit?

0:25:27 > 0:25:31And what do we have to do to keep the situation as it is today?

0:25:31 > 0:25:34For me, there is only one way, that the United Kingdom stays

0:25:34 > 0:25:39in the customs union.

0:25:39 > 0:25:41But I know the UK are determined not to do that.

0:25:41 > 0:25:43I think the negotiations are struggling.

0:25:43 > 0:25:45Not too far from the border crossing, just south,

0:25:45 > 0:25:47I caught up with beef farmer Jim Murray.

0:25:47 > 0:25:48That's the actual border itself, just ahead.

0:25:48 > 0:25:51The actual border is about half a mile past that.

0:25:51 > 0:25:54Today it is frictionless and seamless, and invisible.

0:25:54 > 0:25:55Totally.

0:25:55 > 0:25:58Do think it's going to stay that way after Brexit?

0:25:58 > 0:26:01Well, I hope it will stay like that, because were used to this.

0:26:01 > 0:26:04Well, I hope it will stay like that, because we're used to this.

0:26:04 > 0:26:07I come from a time when I remember that you couldn't actually go down

0:26:07 > 0:26:09that road to access, to do some business

0:26:09 > 0:26:11in the north, because the road was actually blocked.

0:26:11 > 0:26:14Have you been reassured by any of the political statements around

0:26:14 > 0:26:16the border in particular, basically saying that things

0:26:16 > 0:26:17will stay as they are?

0:26:17 > 0:26:20I haven't, really, because seamless and frictionless borders, you know,

0:26:20 > 0:26:23to me it is an oxymoron.

0:26:23 > 0:26:24Because it's still a border.

0:26:24 > 0:26:26I also visited George McArdle.

0:26:26 > 0:26:29He's been running a haulage company for the last 50

0:26:29 > 0:26:31years with experience of crossing the border.

0:26:31 > 0:26:34What are you worried about?

0:26:34 > 0:26:38We're worried about customs and delays.

0:26:38 > 0:26:44We'd be delayed a couple of hours.

0:26:44 > 0:26:49Would there be costs involved for you?

0:26:49 > 0:26:50We'd be paying drivers, the trucks lying idle.

0:26:50 > 0:26:53People say that, while we have peace, it is fragile.

0:26:53 > 0:26:54It's very fragile.

0:26:54 > 0:26:56Any little thing could upset the whole thing again,

0:26:56 > 0:26:59and we wouldn't like to see Brexit be the cause of it.

0:27:05 > 0:27:08We are moving from the Republic of Ireland, just across the border,

0:27:08 > 0:27:14and I'm now in Northern Ireland.

0:27:14 > 0:27:16It was very smooth, seamless and frictionless.

0:27:16 > 0:27:20I suppose that's what we want to see continue in a post-Brexit era.

0:27:20 > 0:27:22Just across the border into Northern Ireland, I caught

0:27:22 > 0:27:25up with Des Fraser, who gave me his view

0:27:25 > 0:27:27about why the United Kingdom decided to leave Europe.

0:27:27 > 0:27:30First of all it was the cost.

0:27:30 > 0:27:33I also felt, particularly the likes of the slurry ban, for agriculture,

0:27:33 > 0:27:35I don't think there should be somebody in Brussels

0:27:35 > 0:27:37telling us when we can or can't spread our slurry.

0:27:37 > 0:27:40What effect do you think Brexit would have on the border?

0:27:40 > 0:27:43Do you think we're going to be able to avoid a hard border?

0:27:43 > 0:27:45Getting a solution is the difficulty, there's no doubt.

0:27:45 > 0:27:48There's a harmonious relationship, you know,

0:27:48 > 0:27:51with Europe and Switzerland, Europe and Norway, without a hard

0:27:51 > 0:27:54border in existence.

0:27:54 > 0:27:57It's very clear that people on both sides of the border want the special

0:27:57 > 0:27:59circumstances on the island of Ireland to be taken into account

0:27:59 > 0:28:03in the Brexit negotiations.

0:28:03 > 0:28:07But can it be and will it be done in time for the December council?

0:28:07 > 0:28:10Will we resolve the conundrum and square the circle

0:28:10 > 0:28:15of an invisible border on the island of Ireland post-Brexit?

0:28:19 > 0:28:22And Mairead McGuiness joins us now from Dublin.

0:28:22 > 0:28:27The former Northern Ireland Secretary and leading Brexiteer,

0:28:27 > 0:28:32Owen Paterson, is in Shropshire.

0:28:32 > 0:28:46Thank you both for joining us. Owen Paterson, Mariad laid out her case,

0:28:46 > 0:28:52does the Government have an answer to this?Yes, there's already an

0:28:52 > 0:29:01existing border. I've been going there since ten years ago. There's a

0:29:01 > 0:29:07currency board, now a euro sterling border, a VAT border, a corporation

0:29:07 > 0:29:11tax border, and in all the time I've been going to Northern Ireland and

0:29:11 > 0:29:24the public, not a single person ever said this presents a problem....

0:29:24 > 0:29:32Physical border.Through the referendum campaign, we made it

0:29:32 > 0:29:36clear there are electronic measures and techniques, existing techniques

0:29:36 > 0:29:40such as authorised economic operators and this can all be made

0:29:40 > 0:29:46to work if there is a will on the border. It has a small amount of

0:29:46 > 0:29:55trade. Northern Ireland has 80% of its trade to the rest of the UK,

0:29:55 > 0:30:01only 5% goes over the border. It would be very easy to license

0:30:01 > 0:30:05tankers that take milk over the border as authorising economic

0:30:05 > 0:30:09operators that go over every day, they would be recognised on a

0:30:09 > 0:30:13regular basis, all invoices done electronically. It is a very small

0:30:13 > 0:30:25problem if there is a will.Let's bring in Mairead McGuiness. Owen

0:30:25 > 0:30:27Paterson sounds like he's saying you're exaggerating the problem is

0:30:27 > 0:30:31here.

0:30:31 > 0:30:34I've listened to it several times and not heard anything new. He is

0:30:34 > 0:30:37right that where there is a will there is a way. This is a serious

0:30:37 > 0:30:41matter for my constituency, for the island of Ireland and Europe. We

0:30:41 > 0:30:47have not found the way. To bring up separate currencies, OK, it is part

0:30:47 > 0:30:52of the situation, but we don't have a border in the visible sense. When

0:30:52 > 0:30:54the United Kingdom remains determined to leave the customs

0:30:54 > 0:30:58union and single market, the milk that he refers to produced in

0:30:58 > 0:31:02Northern Ireland and processed in the Republic of Ireland comes from a

0:31:02 > 0:31:06country that is a third country, no longer a member of the European

0:31:06 > 0:31:10Union. There are many issues about that. I know the fathers in Northern

0:31:10 > 0:31:13Ireland are deeply concerned about the consequences for them as daily

0:31:13 > 0:31:19farmers. -- dairy farmers. They are troubled by his insistence that he

0:31:19 > 0:31:23wants to scrap many of the rules around the food industry and

0:31:23 > 0:31:28agriculture. He wants to scrap support for agriculture. Even

0:31:28 > 0:31:32farmers that voted Leave, they are now quite perplexed about what they

0:31:32 > 0:31:36are hearing from the UK side, not just around the issue of the border,

0:31:36 > 0:31:41but on the wider issues of trade. That is where this problem really

0:31:41 > 0:31:45lies, and where we will have great difficulty. I am more troubled this

0:31:45 > 0:31:50morning, because I read a quote from Arlene Fox the trade Secretary,

0:31:50 > 0:31:54saying that the border issue and the Irish issue will not be solved until

0:31:54 > 0:31:58the final stage, until we reach a decision on trade. I hope the United

0:31:58 > 0:32:02Kingdom is not holding the situation to ransom in these negotiations. It

0:32:02 > 0:32:09is far too serious and too critical. Let's go to Owen Paterson.May I

0:32:09 > 0:32:14finish this point?We now have a situation on the island of Ireland

0:32:14 > 0:32:16and Northern Ireland where we have built piece and we are hoping to

0:32:16 > 0:32:19maintain that. I believe that we will and we can. Unfortunately,

0:32:19 > 0:32:24there is no assembly, there are divisions between the communities

0:32:24 > 0:32:28but they are now becoming deeper. We have to work really hard to avoid

0:32:28 > 0:32:33that. Part of that is to make sure, as Theresa May said on Friday, she

0:32:33 > 0:32:37wants the situation to remain the same as it is today, post-Brexit.

0:32:37 > 0:32:41The only way to achieve that is to stay in the customs union and single

0:32:41 > 0:32:46market. That is the solution.A lot for you to pick up on. Let's start

0:32:46 > 0:32:50with the idea that it might be possible to come up with a final

0:32:50 > 0:32:53solution to the Irish border question after we have seen the

0:32:53 > 0:32:57shape of a trade deal. EU made it clear we cannot talk about trade

0:32:57 > 0:33:02until the Irish border has been settled?Saw those comments were

0:33:02 > 0:33:07completely ridiculous and they have been repeated when we have done

0:33:07 > 0:33:10interviews before. -- some of those comments. The idea that Northern

0:33:10 > 0:33:16Ireland will be taken out of the UK is absurd. 78 million people voted

0:33:16 > 0:33:20to leave the European Union, they voted to leave the customs union and

0:33:20 > 0:33:25the single market, and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The idea

0:33:25 > 0:33:28that politicians in Dublin can somehow start to force Northern

0:33:28 > 0:33:32Ireland to stay, against the will of a significant number of citizens,

0:33:32 > 0:33:35within an arrangement that will not serve the economic and you're

0:33:35 > 0:33:38politically, it is really very dangerous. Let's talk about the

0:33:38 > 0:33:43peace process, I can't think of anything more destabilising... This

0:33:43 > 0:33:48is a really important point. I want to make this point. It is really

0:33:48 > 0:33:50very irresponsible politicians to make a statement like that, saying

0:33:50 > 0:33:56they are going to force and blackmail the UK into getting a

0:33:56 > 0:33:59special status for Northern Ireland outside the rest of the UK. That is

0:33:59 > 0:34:03a really dangerous thing to do and they should stop doing it. There are

0:34:03 > 0:34:06perfectly sensible, technical solutions to the problem of the

0:34:06 > 0:34:09border. We currently have complete conformity of standards. Products

0:34:09 > 0:34:15going over the border go on a very regular basis. It is a tiny part of

0:34:15 > 0:34:19trade between the Republic of Ireland and the UK. It is a really

0:34:19 > 0:34:23tiny part of trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

0:34:23 > 0:34:28and it is solvable by modern methods. The idea we will go back to

0:34:28 > 0:34:34old customs, with customs officials in bridges, sticking a ladle into a

0:34:34 > 0:34:44couple trickle, it is out of date. Less than 2% of goods are inspected

0:34:44 > 0:34:52physically. This is completely out of date. -- sticking a ladle into a

0:34:52 > 0:35:05tub of back-to-back.I am disturbed by some of those comments, to

0:35:05 > 0:35:09describe that view as ridiculous is not helpful. To suggest it is

0:35:09 > 0:35:13blackmailing is appalling. The UK, the Irish at the European Union know

0:35:13 > 0:35:19we have had a difficult history. We have worked hard politically and

0:35:19 > 0:35:28financially to make sure we move forward and we have. If the United

0:35:28 > 0:35:31Kingdom does trade agreements with other partners and goods are flowing

0:35:31 > 0:35:34into Northern Ireland, we have to watch and know where they are coming

0:35:34 > 0:35:38from. That will affect businesses in Northern Ireland, as it will affect

0:35:38 > 0:35:42businesses in the European Union. I dislike this notion, and it is

0:35:42 > 0:35:47happening and happened again in this studio this morning, that the United

0:35:47 > 0:35:50Kingdom and Owen Paterson would say if borders go up, it is our fault.

0:35:50 > 0:35:53Let's be frank, because we should be, we are neighbours and good

0:35:53 > 0:36:00friends. The European Union, 28 today, we respect the democratic

0:36:00 > 0:36:03decision of the United Kingdom to leave, but I would ask you to

0:36:03 > 0:36:07reflect on the reality of Northern Ireland, where people voted to stay

0:36:07 > 0:36:10because they knew the consequences for them. Regrettably, where the

0:36:10 > 0:36:13referendum was taking place, there was no talk about the consequences

0:36:13 > 0:36:13referendum was taking place, there was no talk about the consequences

0:36:13 > 0:36:19for Northern Ireland or the island of Ireland. We are left in a

0:36:19 > 0:36:22situation where, retrospectively, we are trying to find solutions. If it

0:36:22 > 0:36:27upsets your guest at the studio, I repeated anyway, we have to be frank

0:36:27 > 0:36:31with one another. The way to stay the same on the island of Ireland,

0:36:31 > 0:36:35as it is today, post-Brexit, is for at least the United Kingdom to take

0:36:35 > 0:36:39the red off the table, to stay the customs union and single market

0:36:39 > 0:36:44gives us what we have today, and invisible border, seamless trade,

0:36:44 > 0:36:49and also building at helping to keep those relationships. The good

0:36:49 > 0:36:54relationship was helped in no small part because Ireland, the United

0:36:54 > 0:36:58Kingdom and 26 other countries can sit around a table. They sit in the

0:36:58 > 0:37:01European Parliament, in the council, and we do business because we got to

0:37:01 > 0:37:06know each other. We have formal and informal talks and relationships. We

0:37:06 > 0:37:10should really strive to continue that. It is in the interests of the

0:37:10 > 0:37:13people we spoke to on the border, those that wanted the United Kingdom

0:37:13 > 0:37:17to stay, and those that might have had a different view.Owen Paterson,

0:37:17 > 0:37:27can you see that this can be resolved before we know the shape of

0:37:27 > 0:37:30a final trade deal? The idea that the Irish question needs to be

0:37:30 > 0:37:32settled before we move on to talking about future trading or relations?

0:37:32 > 0:37:37Is that possible?As somebody who spent time a shadow and Secretary of

0:37:37 > 0:37:44State, going very regularly to Dublin, getting the main political

0:37:44 > 0:37:47parties in on that, I appreciate the good level of relations between the

0:37:47 > 0:37:51UK and the Republic of Ireland, the enormous benefits to so many people.

0:37:51 > 0:37:57Therefore, I am absolutely dismayed at the talk this morning, which is

0:37:57 > 0:37:59completely unrealistic, expecting Northern Ireland to be given a

0:37:59 > 0:38:04separate status, outside, effectively, the United Kingdom. 87%

0:38:04 > 0:38:09of sales, purely on economics, are within the UK. Henri

0:38:10 > 0:38:14-- on economic grounds, it is crazy. It is very dangerous. There was a

0:38:14 > 0:38:18referendum at the time of the Belfast agreement. There was

0:38:18 > 0:38:24overwhelming support for it to stay in the UK. All of the polls show

0:38:24 > 0:38:29that Northern Ireland will stay very firmly within the UK.Very quickly,

0:38:29 > 0:38:38then, one last point?I hate to say, but Owen may not be listening to

0:38:38 > 0:38:42what I said. I said the United Kingdom would stay in the customs

0:38:42 > 0:38:44union and single market, I did not say Northern Ireland should separate

0:38:44 > 0:38:50and stay in, although that is a potential solution, it is not the

0:38:50 > 0:38:54one I said this morning. Please respond to what I have said.We

0:38:54 > 0:38:58don't have time to respond to any of that. It is an issue we will return

0:38:58 > 0:39:00to. Thank you very much.

0:39:18 > 0:39:20Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

0:39:20 > 0:39:22A standing ovation for Arlene Foster at the party

0:39:22 > 0:39:25conference after a roller-coaster year for the DUP and its leader.

0:39:25 > 0:39:26But what did outside

0:39:26 > 0:39:27observers make of it?

0:39:27 > 0:39:29With me are the journalist Amanda Ferguson and Professors Pete

0:39:29 > 0:39:35Shirlow and Rick Wilford.

0:39:35 > 0:39:38The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has warned that time is running out

0:39:38 > 0:39:40to do a deal to restore power-sharing before direct rule

0:39:40 > 0:39:43ministers are brought in.

0:39:43 > 0:39:46She also told the DUP conference that Unionists have nothing to fear

0:39:46 > 0:39:48from the Irish language and that Republicans need to start

0:39:48 > 0:39:50respecting British culture.

0:39:50 > 0:39:52We'll hear more from the DUP leader in a moment -

0:39:52 > 0:39:54but first our Political Correspondent, Enda McClafferty,

0:39:54 > 0:40:01has this report.

0:40:01 > 0:40:04Whatever the outfit Arlene Foster has become

0:40:04 > 0:40:05a master of transformation.

0:40:05 > 0:40:07She managed to turn the DUP's worst

0:40:07 > 0:40:10year into their best.

0:40:10 > 0:40:12And she's now got one billion reasons to celebrate and a deputy

0:40:12 > 0:40:18singing her praises.

0:40:18 > 0:40:22Those who thought you could be browbeaten or high-rise total

0:40:22 > 0:40:26politics did not reckon on the will and resolve of a strong Unionist

0:40:26 > 0:40:29woman from County Fermanagh.

0:40:29 > 0:40:31She is for the DUP a keeper

0:40:31 > 0:40:37in more ways than one.

0:40:37 > 0:40:41One or two Micro of my colleagues, date might have a little trouble,

0:40:41 > 0:40:49but I am content with my.She is the goalkeeper. She is keeping the goal.

0:40:49 > 0:40:50But the picture at Stormont

0:40:50 > 0:40:51is very different.

0:40:51 > 0:40:54Last year Arlene Foster never once mentioned Sinn Fein in her speech.

0:40:54 > 0:40:58But she found space this year.

0:40:58 > 0:41:03It is time that Sinn Fein started to respect our British culture. For too

0:41:03 > 0:41:09on behalf of all nothing but disdain and disrespect for the National

0:41:09 > 0:41:14flag, the Royal Family, the Armed Forces, but just symbols, the

0:41:14 > 0:41:18constitutional reality, and the very name of this country. We are up for

0:41:18 > 0:41:21respect.

0:41:21 > 0:41:22And that struck a chord

0:41:22 > 0:41:23with this Irish language speaking

0:41:23 > 0:41:25DUP member from Dublin.

0:41:25 > 0:41:27Does he think his party needs to support a stand

0:41:27 > 0:41:33alone Irish Language Act?

0:41:33 > 0:41:38The DUP is happy to accommodate Irish because in Northern Ireland

0:41:38 > 0:41:43and further afield. It is very sad that one political party is using my

0:41:43 > 0:41:49first language as the weapon to destroy progress in politics of

0:41:49 > 0:41:56Northern Ireland.In your opinion is the DUP a warm House for Irish

0:41:56 > 0:41:59language speakers?Eight very warm House for me, warmer than any other

0:41:59 > 0:42:00party.

0:42:00 > 0:42:04And outside we found another one.

0:42:06 > 0:42:13Are they not asking you questions? In Irish?Try something in Irish. I

0:42:13 > 0:42:23would not know what to say.

0:42:30 > 0:42:32She wasn't the only conference first timer.

0:42:32 > 0:42:37The Tory party's

0:42:37 > 0:42:39Chief Whip was there, and yes we did ask about getting

0:42:39 > 0:42:41the rest of our promised £1 billion.

0:42:41 > 0:42:42With or without

0:42:42 > 0:42:47an executive.

0:42:47 > 0:42:53The deal has been done. That Agreement is transparent, in the

0:42:53 > 0:42:57public domain, the Conservative Party and the DUP are happy with how

0:42:57 > 0:43:00that is going. We will deliver conservative values of the

0:43:00 > 0:43:04Conservative Government will deliver on that Agreement.Will money still

0:43:04 > 0:43:08come if there is no power-sharing executive?That is implicit in my

0:43:08 > 0:43:16answer, we have done a deal, we will deliver on it.It is clear Arlene

0:43:16 > 0:43:20Foster and the DUP are relishing their role as power brokers at

0:43:20 > 0:43:24Westminster. But while they may have some friends in high places now, she

0:43:24 > 0:43:28is still a leader without a parliament. And there is no sign but

0:43:28 > 0:43:31is going to change any time soon.

0:43:31 > 0:43:34Enda McClafferty with that report from the DUP conference.

0:43:34 > 0:43:36Well I spoke to Arlene Foster just after she delivered that address

0:43:36 > 0:43:45and I asked her what she would say was the big idea in her speech.

0:43:45 > 0:43:50What I wanted to concentrate on was the fact that we see ourselves as

0:43:50 > 0:43:54the People's party, the party that represents people, but we want to

0:43:54 > 0:44:00get things done, get more jobs, better infrastructure, our health

0:44:00 > 0:44:03service, have a better education seven. I was talking about the fact

0:44:03 > 0:44:07that they want to be the party for Northern Ireland, and the People's

0:44:07 > 0:44:11party. That was the theme. I touched on other issues. I touched on

0:44:11 > 0:44:15Brexit. And of course the year that we have had. We covered quite a lot

0:44:15 > 0:44:22of ground but that was really the thing.But you accept there are a

0:44:22 > 0:44:24lot people who would have watched that speech and watching this

0:44:24 > 0:44:26interview who do not share your definition of Northern Irish nest.

0:44:26 > 0:44:30They would see they have more in common with the Republic of Ireland

0:44:30 > 0:44:35than people and their rest of the UK. They do not see people through

0:44:35 > 0:44:42the same lens that you see them. There is a diverse range of opinions

0:44:42 > 0:44:46in Northern Ireland. Perhaps you are interested in the union for

0:44:46 > 0:44:49political reasons, some people are interested for cultural or social

0:44:49 > 0:44:52reasons, and there are those who want to be in the union for economic

0:44:52 > 0:44:56reasons. Whatever your reasons for wanting to stay within the UK, it is

0:44:56 > 0:44:59very clear, look at all the service, people want to remain with them the

0:44:59 > 0:45:03UK. There are those who have an aspiration to be in a united

0:45:03 > 0:45:14Ireland, but it is

0:45:21 > 0:45:24legitimate, but for the union, and to see two people, your future is

0:45:24 > 0:45:27best within the UK. The sixth largest economy in the world. We are

0:45:27 > 0:45:29going to look forward after Brexit to the opportunities available to

0:45:29 > 0:45:32us. And we could be a very different place in the future if we put our

0:45:32 > 0:45:35minds to it.That majority of people in Northern Ireland who do not see

0:45:35 > 0:45:38Brexit about me, they do not see it as an opportunity, BC it as a

0:45:38 > 0:45:41serious obstacle, something that when it comes into effect the year

0:45:41 > 0:45:45after next May impact negatively on them and their families.And they

0:45:45 > 0:45:50are entitled to hold that view. From my point of view, I think it is a

0:45:50 > 0:45:53tremendous opportunity. There will be short-term challenges but you can

0:45:53 > 0:45:57either meet a challenge looking at it in a negative way or meet it in a

0:45:57 > 0:46:00positive way to look for opportunities in the future. Any

0:46:00 > 0:46:03business people I have spoken to over this past member of months have

0:46:03 > 0:46:07all been saying we may not have faltered in relation to this but we

0:46:07 > 0:46:20accepted that is going to happen, therefore we need to make

0:46:23 > 0:46:26sure the best deal for Northern Ireland, in that context it is very

0:46:26 > 0:46:29important that we do not have any barriers to trade with the rest of

0:46:29 > 0:46:32the UK. We talked about that in the speech, 72% of the trade out of

0:46:32 > 0:46:34Belfast is to Great Britain. We need to make sure there are no barriers

0:46:34 > 0:46:37in the future to allow that to continue.You are in a relationship

0:46:37 > 0:46:39with the Conservative Party at the moment, your ten MPs are keeping

0:46:39 > 0:46:42Theresa May in ten Downing St, a number of high-profile Tories

0:46:42 > 0:46:46attended the conference, but then we had Kenneth Clarke last week saying

0:46:46 > 0:46:51he does not see how the Tories can deliver what they say they will

0:46:51 > 0:46:57deliver in terms of a frictionless border for Northern Ireland and the

0:46:57 > 0:46:59Republic of Ireland, unless Northern Ireland remains in the customs union

0:46:59 > 0:47:05and the single market. He said, speaking as a conservative and

0:47:05 > 0:47:10Unionist, the border should be in the middle of the Irish Sea. It is

0:47:10 > 0:47:13not just nationalists, people in the Republic of Ireland that do not

0:47:13 > 0:47:20shoot your rose tinted view, they might say, of the Brexit challenge.

0:47:20 > 0:47:24I know the media find that the vehicle to for positivity in

0:47:24 > 0:47:29relation to Brexit but I also understand Peter Lilley was on your

0:47:29 > 0:47:32programme and he is a conservative and he was positive about the

0:47:32 > 0:47:36relationship with the DUP. Democracy is a wonderful thing, people have

0:47:36 > 0:47:42different views, from my point of view, it is important that we have a

0:47:42 > 0:47:46vision for unionism and that we drive forward the positivity in the

0:47:46 > 0:47:53future.Where do you stand in your relationship at the moment with Leo

0:47:53 > 0:47:57Varadkar? Do you think that the arrival of Leo Varadkar in the

0:47:57 > 0:48:02office of Taoiseach has made the relationship between UK negotiators

0:48:02 > 0:48:07and Republic of Ireland administration more difficult? Your

0:48:07 > 0:48:10relationship as leader of DUP, has become more difficult since Leo

0:48:10 > 0:48:17Varadkar has taken up that job?Our religion ship has not become more

0:48:17 > 0:48:22difficult, I was delighted that he came down to Eniskillen for

0:48:22 > 0:48:29Remembrance Day. I appreciate that he did that. He has a different view

0:48:29 > 0:48:34in relation to Brexit, he is there to represent his own country. I am

0:48:34 > 0:48:39here to represent Northern Ireland. We will have those to Scotians. I am

0:48:39 > 0:48:42disappointed by some of their commentary and some of the

0:48:42 > 0:48:47projecting of aspirations for a united Ireland on to what should be

0:48:47 > 0:48:50European Union exits negotiations, but that is a matter for them, I am

0:48:50 > 0:48:54trying to move to the next phase of the negotiations so that we can get

0:48:54 > 0:48:58into the detail of what the border will look like because until we

0:48:58 > 0:49:02moved to those trade negotiations we will not have the detail, and it

0:49:02 > 0:49:08will become cart before the horse. Do you regret saying that Leo

0:49:08 > 0:49:13Varadkar was reckless in some comments about Brexit? And that

0:49:13 > 0:49:16playing with the future of Northern Ireland in the way he has handled

0:49:16 > 0:49:21this talks which was that clumsy on your part?Absolutely not. It has

0:49:21 > 0:49:24been shown to be the case over the last week, their rhetoric has been

0:49:24 > 0:49:30stepped up as the week has gone on. I understand, Brexit has been a huge

0:49:30 > 0:49:34shock to people in the Republic of Ireland, I accept that. But they

0:49:34 > 0:49:38should be trying to work with us in Northern Ireland and the entire UK

0:49:38 > 0:49:43to try and find a solution because it is happening. I do recall very

0:49:43 > 0:49:48well one of my first meetings with Leo Varadkar, it was about he did

0:49:48 > 0:49:52not want Brexit to happen, we had to disabuse him of that position. Their

0:49:52 > 0:49:57next meeting was about staying in the customs union, we had to say, we

0:49:57 > 0:50:01are leaving the customs union, the single market, otherwise Brexit will

0:50:01 > 0:50:05not be put in place. There is a sense of shock in the Republic of

0:50:05 > 0:50:10Ireland and I can understand that but instead of megaphone diplomacy

0:50:10 > 0:50:12and being reckless with Northern Ireland we should be engaging and

0:50:12 > 0:50:19finding a way forward that will mean for the Republic of Ireland,

0:50:19 > 0:50:22Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK that we can move into the future in

0:50:22 > 0:50:28a positive way.You are wanting him to roll over and see everything

0:50:28 > 0:50:32through D UPI 's?That would be lovely, if you could arrange that,

0:50:32 > 0:50:38that would be wonderful.He speaks to people in the Republic of

0:50:38 > 0:50:41Ireland, Brexit potentially is a huge problem for people in the

0:50:41 > 0:50:45south. He is not happy about it, he does not think there is anything

0:50:45 > 0:50:50good about it and he will state his case. He will keep saying this is

0:50:50 > 0:50:54not good for us, not good for the European Union, he does not think it

0:50:54 > 0:50:58is good for the people in Northern Ireland, he will keep saying it

0:50:58 > 0:51:01however many times it takes for people to start listening.And I

0:51:01 > 0:51:07will keep seeing what I had to say. Two can play at that game. It is

0:51:07 > 0:51:16that simple? No compromise from your point of view? A special arrangement

0:51:16 > 0:51:21for Northern Ireland?No, we are in union with the UK, we hear a lot

0:51:21 > 0:51:25about the Belfast Agreement, people trying to cherry pick bits of that

0:51:25 > 0:51:29to justify their stance, the fundamental issue is the principle

0:51:29 > 0:51:35of consent which says that until the people of Northern Ireland 's decide

0:51:35 > 0:51:42otherwise we are an integral part of the United Kingdom. Politics,

0:51:42 > 0:51:46Society, cultural reasons, and importantly, for economic reasons.

0:51:46 > 0:51:50Every business that I visit has said to me very clearly they do not want

0:51:50 > 0:51:54a border down the Irish Sea, which is something that bizarrely the

0:51:54 > 0:51:59Republic of Ireland has been talking about. That is self harm for the

0:51:59 > 0:52:02protection, they should want to keep up on the trading relationship with

0:52:02 > 0:52:07Great Britain because that is their biggest market. They should want to

0:52:07 > 0:52:11keep that relationship open as much as possible.People in the Republic

0:52:11 > 0:52:21of Ireland do not accept that, they do not accept your figures. A figure

0:52:21 > 0:52:26of 60% export has been quartered for Republic of Ireland exports to UK,

0:52:26 > 0:52:30leading economists in the UK say it is less than 60%, something in the

0:52:30 > 0:52:37region of 15%.The Republic of Ireland saying that Great Britain is

0:52:37 > 0:52:44not an important market?Not necessarily the biggest market.I do

0:52:44 > 0:52:48not need to poetry anything for the Republic of Ireland, I am simply

0:52:48 > 0:52:53saying they should not try to cut off one of the biggest markets, I am

0:52:53 > 0:52:57not going to cherry pick around that, I do not have a horse in the

0:52:57 > 0:53:02race, I am concerned about the fact that our biggest market, this is a

0:53:02 > 0:53:07fact, talk to anybody in business in Northern Ireland, our biggest market

0:53:07 > 0:53:10is Great Britain, it would be absolute madness and a complete

0:53:10 > 0:53:13dereliction of my duty as a publicly presented to have if I did not try

0:53:13 > 0:53:18to stop the border in the Irish Sea. Let us talk about Stormont and the

0:53:18 > 0:53:22situation there. Are we heading towards Di recruit in the short

0:53:22 > 0:53:32term? Is that inevitable.I hope it is not. I talked a lot about

0:53:32 > 0:53:34devolution and why I think devolution is best for Northern

0:53:34 > 0:53:41Ireland. We have issues going on around the issue of a possible

0:53:41 > 0:53:44general election if a general election is called. And forcibly I

0:53:44 > 0:53:48believe that Sinn Fein will then focus on the Dublin and Republic of

0:53:48 > 0:53:52Ireland elections and they will not be focused on Stormont. We will meet

0:53:52 > 0:53:55the Secretary of State on Monday again as he has asked. You will

0:53:55 > 0:53:59recall that Sinn Fein met the talks after he brought in the budget for

0:53:59 > 0:54:03Northern Ireland. I hope that they will re-engage and try and bring

0:54:03 > 0:54:07devolution back again to Northern Ireland.Are you optimistic that you

0:54:07 > 0:54:14will be back as First Minister in months rather than years?You have

0:54:14 > 0:54:18to be an optimist in Northern Ireland politics and politics is all

0:54:18 > 0:54:21about the possibility of making things work and I want to seek

0:54:21 > 0:54:23Stormont working again.

0:54:23 > 0:54:25Arlene Foster speaking to me straight after

0:54:25 > 0:54:26yesterday's conference speech.

0:54:26 > 0:54:32Let's hear what my guests of the day make of what she had to say.

0:54:32 > 0:54:37Amanda Ferguson, you were at the conference, you spoke to some of the

0:54:37 > 0:54:42delegates, how do you sum up the mood of the occasion?It was quite

0:54:42 > 0:54:48subdued and team. DUP was conscious of the eyes of Great Britain being

0:54:48 > 0:54:52on the conference this year because of their arrangement with the

0:54:52 > 0:55:00Tories. It was very much efforts made to make sure that more

0:55:00 > 0:55:04colourful characters had a lower profile this year. Arlene Foster has

0:55:04 > 0:55:12written to the head of the EU 27 to outline her position. She really

0:55:12 > 0:55:16beside the point that DUP will not accept any internal borders. What I

0:55:16 > 0:55:22found interesting in the speech of Nigel Dodds was it was very much to

0:55:22 > 0:55:26emphasise support for a Arlene Foster, a lot of warmth and

0:55:26 > 0:55:34positivity around Brexit from the delicates. -- delegates. He spoke of

0:55:34 > 0:55:39issues about demographics that Unionists have to be conscious of.

0:55:39 > 0:55:43The DUP are starting to do what they should have been doing for a long

0:55:43 > 0:55:47time, focusing on the benefits of the union, just as Republicans are

0:55:47 > 0:55:53catching up with the idea of selling what a united Ireland means.Any

0:55:53 > 0:56:03surprises? Not at all. On one level her speech was quite conciliatory.

0:56:03 > 0:56:09It was not just a gimmick about the Irish language. The collapse of the

0:56:09 > 0:56:17Assembly and the talks are making them realise that political

0:56:17 > 0:56:26dominance, each had to define what was unionism. It is economic,

0:56:26 > 0:56:32logical, cultural. It is interesting that they are attempting a modern

0:56:32 > 0:56:41idea of what unionism is. They can hint at issues, respect for

0:56:41 > 0:56:50everybody, tolerance, well-being, but can they go into equality

0:56:50 > 0:56:58rights?Several parts of the speech when Arlene Foster trained her fire

0:56:58 > 0:57:01on Sinn Fein but at the same time she made it clear she wants back

0:57:01 > 0:57:07into a devolved executive with Sinn Fein as soon as possible, is that a

0:57:07 > 0:57:13contradiction?She can take a swipe at front of the party faithful, at

0:57:13 > 0:57:20the same time expressing a preference for devolution. Some

0:57:20 > 0:57:27aspects of the speech, and the speech of Nigel Dodds, implied they

0:57:27 > 0:57:36are softening their base for the possibility of direct rule. She

0:57:36 > 0:57:41needed to demonstrate to her base that she was still tough and

0:57:41 > 0:57:47prepared to stand up to Sinn Fein but one of the important themes is

0:57:47 > 0:57:53that unionism, because that is confronted now with Sinn Fein in the

0:57:53 > 0:58:01north, bristling with enthusiasm and confidence, unionism needs to start

0:58:01 > 0:58:04thinking proactively about what offer they can make. If she is going

0:58:04 > 0:58:08to see that DUP is the party of the people we have got to come up with a

0:58:08 > 0:58:15formula of unionism that can appeal more than it currently does.How

0:58:15 > 0:58:20secure is she in her leadership position as the emphasis shifts

0:58:20 > 0:58:32towards Westminster?The difficulty, DUP needs that more than Sinn Fein.

0:58:32 > 0:58:42Nigel Dodds made clear the strength of her character, but she will be

0:58:42 > 0:58:48leading the party for a long time.A quick word on her security?I think

0:58:48 > 0:58:53she is incredibly secure. She is very much respected within her

0:58:53 > 0:59:06party. She is seen as a victim, and in the sectarian politics that we

0:59:06 > 0:59:09have, nothing better than being seen as a victim.

0:59:09 > 0:59:10Let's

0:59:10 > 0:59:11pause

0:59:11 > 0:59:12for a moment and take

0:59:12 > 0:59:14a look back at the political

0:59:14 > 0:59:18week in 60 seconds - with Gareth Gordon.

0:59:18 > 0:59:24Gerry Adams and I said that he was stepping down prompted strong words.

0:59:24 > 0:59:30I could not forgive him for that. Theresa May met DUP and Sinn Fein

0:59:30 > 0:59:34and told them to get back to talks. We are not underestimating the

0:59:34 > 0:59:39challenges that a way forward can be found.The Chancellor's budget

0:59:39 > 0:59:43brought more money for Northern Ireland but with most of it

0:59:43 > 0:59:46earmarked for big projects department still find themselves

0:59:46 > 0:59:51squeezed for a cash. Suggestions of an amnesty for former security force

0:59:51 > 0:59:56personnel proved divisive.We are opposed to amnesty.That is a

0:59:56 > 1:00:06statute of flirtations.The Unionist peer was accused of racism after

1:00:06 > 1:00:11labelling Leo Varadkar as the Indian in a treat.

1:00:11 > 1:00:17A political row.

1:00:17 > 1:00:23Gareth Gordon - and let's have a final word with my studio guests.

1:00:23 > 1:00:30Interesting contribution from the Irish EU emission in The Observer,

1:00:30 > 1:00:35Phil Hogan.Upping the ante? Reinforcing what Leo Varadkar has

1:00:35 > 1:00:44already said. A guarantee there will be no hard border. The Commissioner

1:00:44 > 1:00:53reaffirming the position. People are trying to dance around this issue of

1:00:53 > 1:00:59the border but it is not placated and the idea there is an electronic

1:00:59 > 1:01:07fix, I think is pie in the sky.Liam Fox, speaking this morning, he says

1:01:07 > 1:01:12we need to get this matter sorted out otherwise we cannot move other

1:01:12 > 1:01:22issues. He says December the 14th deal will run for months, not weeks.

1:01:22 > 1:01:25None of the political actors are calling for a hard border, the

1:01:25 > 1:01:34idling is over how the soft border is worked. What is interesting about

1:01:34 > 1:01:42the intervention by Taoiseach is the presence of Sinn Fein in the

1:01:42 > 1:01:47Republic is making him take this issue very seriously because they

1:01:47 > 1:01:51cannot be seen as the party that stood by and allowed a hard border

1:01:51 > 1:01:58which is not going to happen anyway. One of the things you need in a

1:01:58 > 1:02:02discussion is a problem, and to have Arlene Foster and Taoiseach arguing

1:02:02 > 1:02:07points out that there is a hard border there is a problem, there is

1:02:07 > 1:02:13stage managing to make this an aborted issue.We are looking into

1:02:13 > 1:02:21the possibility of an election in the south. This could be crucial.

1:02:21 > 1:02:25Realistically, even if there was an election.

1:02:25 > 1:02:26That's it.

1:02:30 > 1:02:32Welcome back.

1:02:32 > 1:02:35Now, they play big in Westminster - but does the rest of the country

1:02:35 > 1:02:38notice big set-piece political moments like this week's Budget?

1:02:38 > 1:02:39Ellie took our not-so-scientific barometer of public opinion,

1:02:39 > 1:02:42the Moodbox, to Yorkshire.

1:02:45 > 1:02:47Two things happened this week to make us think about spending

1:02:47 > 1:02:50and feel like we've got more pounds in our pockets.

1:02:50 > 1:02:55But which was more important?

1:02:55 > 1:02:57That's a question we're asking shoppers here in Leeds today.

1:02:57 > 1:02:58What matters more?

1:02:58 > 1:03:00Is it Black Friday or the Budget?

1:03:03 > 1:03:05Black Friday, because you're out there, you're

1:03:05 > 1:03:06going to get a bargain.

1:03:06 > 1:03:08It's a nice build-up towards Christmas and the Budget,

1:03:08 > 1:03:10they take away from you.

1:03:10 > 1:03:13This is a more fun day than watching Philip Hammond doing the Budget?

1:03:13 > 1:03:15Definitely!

1:03:15 > 1:03:17Is not going to spoil our day today.

1:03:17 > 1:03:20# Cos we are living in a material world

1:03:20 > 1:03:23# And I am a material girl...

1:03:23 > 1:03:25The Budget matters for first-time buyers, with the stamp duty.

1:03:25 > 1:03:26My daughter is buying.

1:03:26 > 1:03:30Do you think Black Friday would put more money

1:03:30 > 1:03:33than the Chancellor?

1:03:33 > 1:03:35Probably.

1:03:35 > 1:03:36Probably.

1:03:36 > 1:03:37I suppose it affects everyone, it's more important.

1:03:37 > 1:03:39And Black Friday is just quite commercialised.

1:03:39 > 1:03:41I suppose I'm here shopping!

1:03:41 > 1:03:43The Budget is more important, think.

1:03:43 > 1:03:47If they get the Budget wrong, Black Friday doesn't mean anything.

1:03:47 > 1:03:48Did they get the Budget wrong?

1:03:48 > 1:03:50I think they get it wrong every year!

1:03:50 > 1:03:53What matters more to you, the Budget or Black Friday?

1:03:53 > 1:03:54Black Friday!

1:03:54 > 1:03:56Because it's cheaper, and I got my coat.

1:03:56 > 1:03:58Did you look at what was in the Budget?

1:03:58 > 1:03:59No!

1:03:59 > 1:04:01# Only boys that save their pennies

1:04:01 > 1:04:04# Make my rainy day

1:04:04 > 1:04:07# Cos we are living in a material world...

1:04:07 > 1:04:09I just think Black Friday is a big con.

1:04:09 > 1:04:10Do you?

1:04:10 > 1:04:11Yes, I do.

1:04:11 > 1:04:13Do you think the Budget was a big con?

1:04:13 > 1:04:16Not for me, but for some people.

1:04:16 > 1:04:18# And I am a material girl

1:04:19 > 1:04:22# Living in a material world...

1:04:23 > 1:04:27What puts more money in your pocket, the Budget or Black Friday?

1:04:27 > 1:04:28Probably Black Friday.

1:04:28 > 1:04:29Yeah!

1:04:29 > 1:04:30Why?

1:04:30 > 1:04:33Yeah, a lot of deals on Black Friday.

1:04:33 > 1:04:36More money in your pocket but, actually, overall, the Budget.

1:04:36 > 1:04:38What's more important, the Budget or Black Friday?

1:04:38 > 1:04:39What's the Budget?

1:04:39 > 1:04:41Well, it was...

1:04:41 > 1:04:44The Chancellor talking about money and stuff on Wednesday?

1:04:44 > 1:04:47Jesus, I'm really rubbish.

1:04:47 > 1:04:48Definitely the Budget.

1:04:48 > 1:04:49Why's that?

1:04:49 > 1:04:54Because I'm not a big shopper.

1:04:54 > 1:04:57Did you pay any attention to any of the bargains being offered

1:04:57 > 1:04:58by the Chancellor on Wednesday?

1:04:58 > 1:05:00I saw stamp duty got rid of.

1:05:00 > 1:05:02But that doesn't apply to us right now.

1:05:02 > 1:05:03And so Black Friday's better?

1:05:03 > 1:05:04Yeah.

1:05:04 > 1:05:06# A material, a material world...

1:05:06 > 1:05:09Well, Black Friday is in full swing in Leeds.

1:05:09 > 1:05:11But shoppers here have discounted that and say

1:05:11 > 1:05:13it is Wednesday's Budget that matters more to them.

1:05:13 > 1:05:15# Living in a material world...

1:05:16 > 1:05:19So that's the view from Leeds on a Budget that self-consciously

1:05:19 > 1:05:23tried to target younger voters with the abolition of stamp duty

1:05:23 > 1:05:26for some first time buyers and extending the young person's

1:05:26 > 1:05:30railcard to rail travellers up to the age of 30.

1:05:30 > 1:05:33In June's election, as subsequent polling revealed,

1:05:33 > 1:05:36the Conservatives trailed Labour by some margin amongst the young.

1:05:36 > 1:05:39I use the word "young", but even those in their 40s

1:05:39 > 1:05:45were more likely to vote Labour than Conservative.

1:05:45 > 1:05:50Will the Budget have addressed any of those problems? Time to turn to

1:05:50 > 1:05:57the panel. Zoe, giveaways to the under 30s, does it make a difference

1:05:57 > 1:06:02to the Tories?The Railcard is actually quite a bad other, it has a

1:06:02 > 1:06:04lot of restrictions. The shortcomings of the Railcard were

1:06:04 > 1:06:09the least bad thing about the idea. It is so trivial, such a failure to

1:06:09 > 1:06:14address what young people are saying about politics. You know, huge debt

1:06:14 > 1:06:17burden is at the end of university, the impossibility of joining the

1:06:17 > 1:06:21housing market. They are talking about massive, structural changes to

1:06:21 > 1:06:30the economy that make different to our lives. The Conservatives come

1:06:30 > 1:06:33back with a Railcard? It is almost like they are sabotaging themselves.

1:06:33 > 1:06:38It wasn't just stamp duty, also stimulating the market to make more

1:06:38 > 1:06:41houses available. Would that have been noticed by younger voters that

1:06:41 > 1:06:46have not been turning to the Conservatives?The housing market is

1:06:46 > 1:06:50still massively broken, it is not entirely clear that the

1:06:50 > 1:06:54Chancellor's, what he called a £44 billion package, experts said 15

1:06:54 > 1:06:58billion or less, if that will fix the problems and started to bring

1:06:58 > 1:07:01down the price of houses, it is not clear that the housing package will

1:07:01 > 1:07:06result in a large number of extra homes being built. Ultimately, in

1:07:06 > 1:07:10the big picture, this was a forgettable Budget. That is just how

1:07:10 > 1:07:13Theresa May and Philip Hammond pretty much wanted it. They did not

1:07:13 > 1:07:16want it to be a Budget that went down in flames because it was

1:07:16 > 1:07:19defeated in the Commons or because there was a Tory rebellion about

1:07:19 > 1:07:26some nefarious tax raising measure. What it did, worryingly for the

1:07:26 > 1:07:30Conservatives, is that it accepted some of Labour's arguments. It said,

1:07:30 > 1:07:35we know that the NHS is a bit underfunded, so we will give it some

1:07:35 > 1:07:39money. We know there is a problem in the housing market, we will put some

1:07:39 > 1:07:43money to that. It accepted some of Labour's solutions. Because tax

1:07:43 > 1:07:47rising it's too hard, we are going to borrow to get out of the

1:07:47 > 1:07:50political problems, make do and mend the political problem is that there

1:07:50 > 1:07:53are. Having gone some way towards acknowledging the problems and

1:07:53 > 1:07:56solutions that Labour offer, they have a hell of a job trying to

1:07:56 > 1:08:04convince people that going whole hog that Labour suggests is the wrong

1:08:04 > 1:08:07answer. That is one of the big problems they face.I don't think

1:08:07 > 1:08:09the Tories really stand a chance on this question with younger voters

1:08:09 > 1:08:13until they have a change of leadership, maybe even a couple of

1:08:13 > 1:08:16leaders before then. They are only really going to connect to people

1:08:16 > 1:08:19below the age of 45 when those voters see somebody that does not

1:08:19 > 1:08:27look like the identikit concept of a Tory. There is a trust deficit. The

1:08:27 > 1:08:36Tories are regarded by younger voters as the nasty party.Earlier

1:08:36 > 1:08:42we heard from Mairead McGuinness and Owen Paterson on the issue of the

1:08:42 > 1:08:47Irish border, as the war of words continues to ramp up.I am troubled

1:08:47 > 1:08:50this morning because I have read a quote from Arlene Fox, the trade

1:08:50 > 1:08:56Secretary, saying that the border issue will not be solved until the

1:08:56 > 1:09:00final stage, until we reach a decision on trade. I hope that the

1:09:00 > 1:09:05United Kingdom is not holding the Irish situation to ransom. It is far

1:09:05 > 1:09:10too serious and far too critical.It is very irresponsible politicians to

1:09:10 > 1:09:14make a statement like that, saying they are going to force and

1:09:14 > 1:09:18blackmailed the UK into having a special status for Northern Ireland

1:09:18 > 1:09:21outside the rest of the UK. That is a really dangerous thing to do and

1:09:21 > 1:09:25they should stop doing it. There are perfectly sensible technical

1:09:25 > 1:09:29solutions to the problem of the border.Let's pick up some of that

1:09:29 > 1:09:35with the panel. It was quite bad-tempered, I have to say, for two

1:09:35 > 1:09:39people that are supposed to be the best of our lives, the UK and Irish

1:09:39 > 1:09:47government. The row is heating up? Yes, feelings are running very high.

1:09:47 > 1:09:51There is quite a lot of hype about this and I don't think it is likely

1:09:51 > 1:09:55that the EU will put Ireland in a position where Ireland has to Beto

1:09:55 > 1:10:06moving forward on the trade talks. -- veto. The solution probably lies

1:10:06 > 1:10:13in phase two. What could be happening, and this is why I think

1:10:13 > 1:10:20December is so critical, if there is not a breakthrough in December, I

1:10:20 > 1:10:25think the atmosphere changes and Britain effectively needs to start

1:10:25 > 1:10:33preparing for there being no deal. It is possible that Emmanuel Macron,

1:10:33 > 1:10:36France, being quite difficult with the British, could use the Irish

1:10:36 > 1:10:41argument to say that the 27 is not satisfied with the progress. I think

1:10:41 > 1:10:46at that point, it would be pushing the British Government too far.I

1:10:46 > 1:10:56basically agree with Ian. I don't think we need to put on the table a

1:10:56 > 1:11:00fully fledged plan for how to deal with the Irish border. I think what

1:11:00 > 1:11:03is going on is a certain amount of choreography for the Irish in

1:11:03 > 1:11:06Brussels and London, so that the British make clear we are taking

1:11:06 > 1:11:10this incredibly seriously. There needs to be warm words, in the sense

1:11:10 > 1:11:14of progress. As Ian says, you can't have a plan until we know what the

1:11:14 > 1:11:16end state relationship with the European Union is going to be. It

1:11:16 > 1:11:22does look like there will be a lot of talk. I am not sure it will

1:11:22 > 1:11:25result in a catastrophic failure in three weeks' time. However, this

1:11:25 > 1:11:32remains possibly the most pivotal moment in the talks. Theresa May has

1:11:32 > 1:11:35to have satisfied the European Union politically. We will knowing about

1:11:35 > 1:11:40two weeks whether she is going to achieve that or not. If she doesn't,

1:11:40 > 1:11:44I think we're going to be right back into government in crisis territory.

1:11:44 > 1:11:50She has made wanted to get progress towards a a fundamental aim of her

1:11:50 > 1:11:56premiership, and I don't think that if that looks like it is going to

1:11:56 > 1:11:59collapse you will be in a strong position.Is that right, absolutely

1:11:59 > 1:12:03crucial that the EU we want to trade talks?It is still unclear whether

1:12:03 > 1:12:08the end of the customs union and single market are a done deal within

1:12:08 > 1:12:10the Conservative Party. Owen Paterson is talking as though that

1:12:10 > 1:12:16is what people voted for, of course it isn't.It is what he believes.We

1:12:16 > 1:12:17don't know that is

1:12:17 > 1:12:18it isn't.It is what he believes.We don't know that is the Conservative

1:12:18 > 1:12:24position. The idea this is somehow Europe or Island's fault for not

1:12:24 > 1:12:27moving forward, how can we negotiate on something when we don't know what

1:12:27 > 1:12:32we want? I get no sense that we know what we want.There is a lot of

1:12:32 > 1:12:36blame to go round. The point is that the crunch is coming sooner than

1:12:36 > 1:12:40people anticipate. If there is an progress in December, effectively

1:12:40 > 1:12:50there will be no progress until we get too -- until we get to March.

1:12:50 > 1:12:52Psychologically, it will be a very important moment and Britain will

1:12:52 > 1:12:59have to be getting ready one way or another.It would increase the

1:12:59 > 1:13:02possibility of no deal?I think there would be a huge amount of

1:13:02 > 1:13:06opposition to the idea of going into a no deal scenario just because the

1:13:06 > 1:13:16Conservative Party, which drove this, couldn't make its mind up.One

1:13:16 > 1:13:19of the frustrating things about the whole debate is that Theresa May

1:13:19 > 1:13:22does not take a lead. She is one of the most frustrating people to

1:13:22 > 1:13:28watch, because she always reacts to everybody else.Thank you very much.

1:13:28 > 1:13:29That's all for today.

1:13:29 > 1:13:30Thanks to all my guests.

1:13:30 > 1:13:33Join me again next Sunday at 11am here on BBC One.

1:13:33 > 1:13:34Until then, bye-bye.