:00:37. > :00:43.Hello, welcome to a special edition of Sunday Politics, live in Dublin
:00:44. > :00:48.to bring to you the latest on the Irish election results. What a story
:00:49. > :00:53.it is. Huge setback for Fine Gael and near wipe-out for the Labour
:00:54. > :00:57.Party with an unexpected recovery from Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein has made
:00:58. > :01:01.gains and it has been a big weekend for the smaller parties, which means
:01:02. > :01:05.we are in a new era for Irish politics with uncertainty about how
:01:06. > :01:09.and when a Government can be formed. We will bring you all those stories
:01:10. > :01:15.and the results as they stand right now, as well as political guest and
:01:16. > :01:17.analysis over the next hour and a quarter.
:01:18. > :01:22.So let's have a look at those results.
:01:23. > :01:29.Welcome this monitor our political editor Mark Devenport, Mary Minihan
:01:30. > :01:33.from the Irish Times and Dr Muiris MacCarthaigh from Queens University,
:01:34. > :01:36.thank you for being with us. 95 seats have been sold so far out of
:01:37. > :01:40.158, and it looks like this: Remember there are eight fewer Dail
:01:41. > :01:46.seats than there were in 2011, so an exact like-for-like
:01:47. > :01:48.comparison isn't possible. Fine Gael are on 28,
:01:49. > :01:50.neck-and-neck with Fianna Fail Sinn Fein are now the third-largest
:01:51. > :01:56.party in the Dail, currently on 13, with Labour trailing on four
:01:57. > :01:58.and the independents and smaller Now this is the share of the first
:01:59. > :02:12.preference vote for each party Fine Gael on 25.5%, still the main
:02:13. > :02:17.party in terms of the popular vote. Labour trailing again on 6.6%
:02:18. > :02:25.and the independents and others And we can see how that
:02:26. > :02:40.has changed since 2011, Labour, down 12.8%,
:02:41. > :03:00.with the independents Political earthquake is the headline
:03:01. > :03:03.on the Sunday Independent this morning, no question about that.
:03:04. > :03:08.Mark, wattage or overall perspective of where we are this morning? I
:03:09. > :03:12.don't think anybody quite wrote the script in advance. You have got to
:03:13. > :03:16.be famous American political cliche that there is only ever one issue,
:03:17. > :03:20.it is the economy, stupid, but in this election it was not just the
:03:21. > :03:23.economy, because the outgoing coalition had the wind in their
:03:24. > :03:36.sales of overseeing an economic recovery and it was assumed that
:03:37. > :03:39.disgruntled voters particularly would take out their concerns on
:03:40. > :03:41.Labour, the junior partner, but not necessarily on Fine Gael, which is
:03:42. > :03:44.why Ende Kenny seemed comfortable that he could pick and collection
:03:45. > :03:46.more or less whenever he chose. It seems that he maybe went to late,
:03:47. > :03:49.and that argument from his critics, that it wasn't just the economic
:03:50. > :03:54.recovery but how fair the recovery was and how it was affecting some of
:03:55. > :03:59.the disadvantaged groups in society, that that had resonance and it has
:04:00. > :04:03.undercut his main selling point and resulted, I suppose, in a Fianna
:04:04. > :04:08.Fail comeback that at Michael Martin did well in selling that in the
:04:09. > :04:12.debate and also the growth of the left is probably the most organised
:04:13. > :04:17.group within that sector, protesting about how things have been shared
:04:18. > :04:21.out. The political landscape has changed and change dramatically. To
:04:22. > :04:26.pick up on what Mark was talking about, the message of steady as she
:04:27. > :04:30.goes, which is effectively what Ende was talking about, and Kenny, the
:04:31. > :04:35.Taoiseach, the man with a steady hand on the tiller, trust me to keep
:04:36. > :04:41.things going, I have got the best interests of the nation at heart,
:04:42. > :04:45.but people did not buy that? Not at all, the message was echoed., you
:04:46. > :04:49.will see it around on posters this morning, let's keep the recovery
:04:50. > :04:53.going, and never have I seen a message become so stale and
:04:54. > :04:56.redundant in such a short time, in a three-week campaign, said the
:04:57. > :05:00.strategy did not work for them at all. I think maybe halfway through
:05:01. > :05:04.the campaign Fine Gael realised, we have got this wrong, and try to
:05:05. > :05:08.backtrack a bit, saying they understood the recovery had not been
:05:09. > :05:16.felt by everyone, there were some legacy issues handing over from the
:05:17. > :05:19.economic crash, but it was too late to turn the ship around at that
:05:20. > :05:22.stage. The me, the story of this election has been the researchers of
:05:23. > :05:27.Vienna foil, the party was mercilessly booted out of power in
:05:28. > :05:33.2011, and many people thought they would go the way of the dodo --
:05:34. > :05:38.Fianna Fail. We are going to see them up in the 40s, and Fine Gael
:05:39. > :05:43.probably settling in the early 50s, so it has been an extraordinary
:05:44. > :05:47.resurgence, and I suppose Fianna Fail is ingrained in the DNA of a
:05:48. > :05:51.lot of Irish people, particularly older rural voters, and I think we
:05:52. > :05:56.have seen them tiptoeing back to the party that they were always loyal to
:05:57. > :05:59.previously. It seems to have been a surprise to so many people because
:06:00. > :06:04.there were those in the media, particularly in and around the
:06:05. > :06:08.metropolitan media, let's say, in Dublin, who was suggesting three
:06:09. > :06:12.short weeks ago that Enda Kenny could conceivably come back as
:06:13. > :06:18.Taoiseach of a single party Government, but in the wake Cameron
:06:19. > :06:20.did in 2014, he was able to manage without his minority coalition
:06:21. > :06:24.partner. I don't know if you went on record suggesting that or not, but
:06:25. > :06:30.those who did got it dramatically wrong. Yes, and there has been a lot
:06:31. > :06:34.of commentary that it was a middle-class, leafy, South Dublin
:06:35. > :06:41.attitude, and in some constituencies they booked the trend, Dun Laoghaire
:06:42. > :06:48.for instance which was a very middle-class liberal constituency,
:06:49. > :06:52.and Fine Gael brought home two TDs, which is unusual if you look around
:06:53. > :06:55.the country, but it shows there are areas where people have genuinely
:06:56. > :07:00.felt the recovery and have rewarded the Government, but the majority of
:07:01. > :07:04.people have not accepted that at all and you see the coalition partners,
:07:05. > :07:08.the Labour Party, being very severely punished in this election,
:07:09. > :07:12.and the possibility that a party, and outgoing party of Government,
:07:13. > :07:17.could actually not even be entitled to speaking rights in the next oil,
:07:18. > :07:22.they could be so low, they have four seat at the moment and you need
:07:23. > :07:28.seven to be a party, to get those rights in the house, said the Labour
:07:29. > :07:32.Party is a much reduced force now. Muiris, it is another fascinating
:07:33. > :07:37.story as this situation unfolds, the near wipe-out of the Labour Party?
:07:38. > :07:42.It is an extraordinary election in so far as two days after the poll it
:07:43. > :07:46.is still, by this stage we would normally expect some shape to be
:07:47. > :07:50.formed around whom the Government is, and it is not clear at all, talk
:07:51. > :07:56.about re-elections, party leaders having to go, talk about realignment
:07:57. > :08:03.of Irish Parliamentary politics insofar as we consider how some of
:08:04. > :08:08.the viewers will be more familiar with some form of power-sharing as
:08:09. > :08:13.opposed to the Westminster adversarial format we to, but at
:08:14. > :08:17.this stage, taking a longer term perspective on it, you might say
:08:18. > :08:23.that some features, like the classic Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, the two big
:08:24. > :08:26.parties slugging it out, neither of them are breaching the 30% mark,
:08:27. > :08:31.whereby one of them is coming out on top and will be a natural leader of
:08:32. > :08:36.a Coalition Government, so it is an unusual situation that the parties
:08:37. > :08:39.find themselves in. That is what is so fascinating about this, the
:08:40. > :08:44.individual stories which are intriguing in themselves, but there
:08:45. > :08:50.is no overall picture which you can say, this is exactly how things will
:08:51. > :08:52.unfold? It will make negotiations on forming the Government really
:08:53. > :08:56.difficult, because if you have a party which is very much the biggest
:08:57. > :09:00.party, the dominant party, then it can, to some extent, call the shots
:09:01. > :09:06.in terms of whichever junior partner it fixes on, but if you have a party
:09:07. > :09:09.that, like Fianna Fail, just is a hair's-breadth behind, they will be
:09:10. > :09:13.thinking, shall we do a deal, shall be hanged out for a future election
:09:14. > :09:21.well be could emerge as the biggest player? And also they have this
:09:22. > :09:23.concerned that if they were to bury their historic differences and enter
:09:24. > :09:26.some kind of grand coalition with Fine Gael, it could create a
:09:27. > :09:32.realignment in politics and it will become more left right and some
:09:33. > :09:38.groups like Sinn Fein would be able to prosper in the space that would
:09:39. > :09:41.be created in opposition. Mary, how do you see that developing? We have
:09:42. > :09:45.had lots of parties in the last three days of campaigning saying who
:09:46. > :09:48.they would or would not go into coalition with, and nobody else
:09:49. > :09:52.frankly wants to go into Government with Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail, Fine
:09:53. > :09:55.Gael, very uncomfortable bedfellows, it has never happened before, they
:09:56. > :10:01.have always been in opposition to each other, I don't know if anyone
:10:02. > :10:11.thinks that is workable, but they are Progressive Democrats who were a
:10:12. > :10:17.natural bedfellows together in Northern Ireland, so anything is
:10:18. > :10:22.possible, is anything possible here? The difficult with the two parties
:10:23. > :10:29.is the grassroots. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are traditional enemies,
:10:30. > :10:33.it would be a huge moment for those two parties to coalesce,
:10:34. > :10:37.particularly when Fianna Fail is emboldened because the more honest
:10:38. > :10:42.of the party strategists for Fianna Fail would have said the rebuilding
:10:43. > :10:45.process they embarked on in 2011 was a two election strategy. I don't
:10:46. > :10:49.think if they were honest they would they be expected to be doing so well
:10:50. > :10:53.just five years on from the last election, but they have done bury
:10:54. > :10:57.well, and they are in a position now to engage in talks with Fine Gael,
:10:58. > :11:02.whether or not that is wise for the party remains to be seen. I don't
:11:03. > :11:05.know if it is something that the Fianna Fail grassroots would wear,
:11:06. > :11:10.and I think innovatively there would be splits in the ranks if that was
:11:11. > :11:15.to take place. I think a more likely possibility is that Fianna Fail
:11:16. > :11:20.would act in the national interest, as it is sometimes said in politics,
:11:21. > :11:22.and would support, or at least not oppose, and minority Fine Gael
:11:23. > :11:26.Government from the opposition benches. But certainly that
:11:27. > :11:31.introduces the prospect of Sinn Fein being the key opposition voice in
:11:32. > :11:35.the next Dail, and that means that, in another five years, if the
:11:36. > :11:40.Government would go that long, that that party could be in pole position
:11:41. > :11:46.then to take on a leadership role in the Government. Muiris, do you see
:11:47. > :11:50.some sort of confidence and supply arrangement, the Westminster model,
:11:51. > :11:55.support for a minority Government on an individual case-by-case basis? Is
:11:56. > :12:02.that the only option? Is that stuff that -- is that sustainable in the
:12:03. > :12:06.long term? Usually when you have a single or dual party coalition that
:12:07. > :12:13.is just shy of an overall majority, but even that doesn't seem to be
:12:14. > :12:16.appropriate. To the outside observer traditionally Fianna Fail and Fine
:12:17. > :12:22.Gael in terms of policy, some areas are very similar, they are as much
:12:23. > :12:28.defined by the other as anything else. So the parties must take a
:12:29. > :12:32.longer term view of what the ramifications would be of such a
:12:33. > :12:35.coalition. But it is still a little bit early because the parties will
:12:36. > :12:41.have to see what sort of relative electoral strengths they had in
:12:42. > :12:44.terms of what the final seats are going to be. We could be some way
:12:45. > :12:48.from that. Bertie Ahern predicting there is no chance of a Government
:12:49. > :12:53.before St Patrick's Cavan, which was, again, quite unusual, not so
:12:54. > :12:56.unusual if you are in Germany, where they take their time forming a
:12:57. > :13:00.Government, or Belgium, why they don't have one for a year or so, but
:13:01. > :13:05.in an Irish context this happens very quickly, but this could be a
:13:06. > :13:09.very, very important, strategic election for the future of the
:13:10. > :13:12.traditional large parties in Irish politics. Mark, you were talking on
:13:13. > :13:20.the radio yesterday about the Belgian example... 541 days of
:13:21. > :13:28.negotiations! That is long by any standards! People were saying that
:13:29. > :13:32.Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will have to see if they can give it a go!
:13:33. > :13:37.Bertie Ahern giving a realistic prospect that essentially ended
:13:38. > :13:47.Keddie will go in and continue his role as Taoiseach -- -- Kenny, over
:13:48. > :13:50.the traditional festive it is of St Patrick's Cavan, with the title of
:13:51. > :13:58.Taoiseach but not the majority that normally goes with it. It will be a
:13:59. > :14:02.strange scenario. We will hear from some politicians shortly on the
:14:03. > :14:05.programme but for now thank you all very much indeed. That is the
:14:06. > :14:08.picture this morning but how precisely did we get here?
:14:09. > :14:11.Here's our political correspondent Gareth Gorden with his reflections
:14:12. > :14:19.If you want to know what is happening in an Irish election, ass
:14:20. > :14:22.gay Kalimantan is to long before a result was officially announced, the
:14:23. > :14:30.ruling party knew it would be a difficult day -- Aske pay Cali man.
:14:31. > :14:33.We have had some disappointing results, several colleagues will
:14:34. > :14:37.lose their seats, and that is a sad day for them, their families and
:14:38. > :14:43.supporters. Downbeat, but Martin McGuinness was upbeat. I don't know
:14:44. > :14:49.what the final tally will be, 15 or 16%, but it is a dramatic increase
:14:50. > :14:52.on the eight or 9% we got in the 2011 election. In terms of my
:14:53. > :14:56.contribution to politics, Gerry Adams' contribution to politics, I
:14:57. > :15:00.think the people of Ireland recognised that we have been at the
:15:01. > :15:04.heart of the peace process and our party has driven the peace process,
:15:05. > :15:09.but I think also because people are coming increasingly to support our
:15:10. > :15:13.party as they have done in this election that is, I think,
:15:14. > :15:17.absolutely down to the leadership provided by Gerry Adams, by Pearse
:15:18. > :15:20.Doherty and many others of our leaders here in this part of
:15:21. > :15:26.Ireland. There was a rare public appearance on the Sinn Fein
:15:27. > :15:32.supporters from former British heiress turned IRA member Rose
:15:33. > :15:38.Dugdale, along with Jim McMahon. Something to celebrate as MacDonald
:15:39. > :15:48.topped the poll. What are you more interested in, the election or the
:15:49. > :15:53.rugby? The rugby. Why? Because the players do was proud, whereas our
:15:54. > :15:57.politicians do not. We need to take a good hard look at who we are
:15:58. > :16:05.electing and who we want to put into serving our country. I'm delighted
:16:06. > :16:06.that end Kenny has got his just deserts and after that and saying
:16:07. > :16:20.nothing else. Can I as quite you voted for Fianna
:16:21. > :16:25.Fail when they were blamed for the mess we were in in the first phase?
:16:26. > :16:27.Well, the world was going through trouble at that time, regardless of
:16:28. > :16:33.whatever Government was in the economy would have been into anyway.
:16:34. > :16:39.Enjoyed the game. Not many did. The one result of the
:16:40. > :16:47.day we could all agree on. Symbolic of Fianna Fail's revival, back in
:16:48. > :16:52.the Dail after the former Taoiseach's son lost his seat last
:16:53. > :16:56.time around. Family gives me motivation but having said that the
:16:57. > :17:00.electorate are very concerned about the future, and not that concerned
:17:01. > :17:06.about the past. And the future now is what concerns the Taoiseach of
:17:07. > :17:09.the country. Clearly the option of a majority Government has gone, the
:17:10. > :17:12.option of the Fine Gael Labour Government has gone, so we don't
:17:13. > :17:16.know the results for the other parties yet. I need to know those
:17:17. > :17:21.before I decide what is the best thing to do, given my responsibility
:17:22. > :17:26.and my duty as Taoiseach and head of Government, I consider that very
:17:27. > :17:31.carefully over the next 36, 48 hours as those results become clear. Could
:17:32. > :17:38.there even be an historic coalition with Fianna Fail? A lot will depend
:17:39. > :17:44.on the destination of the last seats in many constituencies, and in
:17:45. > :17:49.particular the four seats, where those last seats are going to go. It
:17:50. > :17:52.is a bit too early yet to be definitive about that but it is
:17:53. > :17:57.clear we are going to have a good day. Watching all this was an
:17:58. > :18:02.unlikely onlooker. I'm studying in Dublin, I'm from an evangelical
:18:03. > :18:07.background, I'm a member of the Orange order, I'm from a strong
:18:08. > :18:10.unionist background, and the reason I'm here is because I think it is
:18:11. > :18:14.wonderful that in the Republic of Ireland they are able to have a
:18:15. > :18:18.voluntary coalition and in opposition, something we are denied
:18:19. > :18:23.in the United Kingdom, in Northern Ireland, and I think that there are
:18:24. > :18:27.many parties in the Republic who will not go into Government with
:18:28. > :18:34.Sinn Fein, get the DUP props Sinn Fein up, and I think it is for us to
:18:35. > :18:37.look to the south and tried to push in Northern Ireland for these
:18:38. > :18:41.fundamentals of democracy. Right now the Republic does not have any kind
:18:42. > :18:45.of coalition and unless it gets one in the next week and a half, voters
:18:46. > :18:47.could be doing this all over again rather soon.
:18:48. > :18:53.Let's hear more from my studio guests.
:18:54. > :19:04.We have been joined by Conor Lenihan from Fianna Fail and were no Brin
:19:05. > :19:09.the new Sinn Fein TD. Congratulations. You top the poll.
:19:10. > :19:13.Yes. I do not suppose you are surprised that you were returned,
:19:14. > :19:18.but were used to price that you did as well as you did? I have to say we
:19:19. > :19:24.have an exceptionally good campaign team and we have been flat out since
:19:25. > :19:29.2011. We were hopeful to win a seat. We were more or less on target. Why
:19:30. > :19:36.do you think the people who voted for Sinn Fein, especially in terms
:19:37. > :19:39.of first preferences did? Were they voting for something specific or
:19:40. > :19:42.against something else? They were voting for something specific. One
:19:43. > :19:46.of the big themes, particularly in the last two or three weeks was
:19:47. > :19:50.whether you were talking to working families or families out of work,
:19:51. > :19:54.there was a sense that there was no recovery for them, whether there was
:19:55. > :19:58.the macroeconomic statistics or the people at the top, for ordinary
:19:59. > :20:02.families, things have not gotten better, in terms of jobs, wages and
:20:03. > :20:10.front line public services and while at the start of the campaign it was
:20:11. > :20:12.clear they were not point to vote for Fianna Fail and Labour, they
:20:13. > :20:16.were looking around for something else. I think a mixture of the core
:20:17. > :20:20.message, that we were saying a fair recovery was possible, but only if
:20:21. > :20:24.there was a change in policy and a good ground campaign was the reason
:20:25. > :20:28.we did well. You cut your teeth in Belfast and I am sure many of our
:20:29. > :20:32.viewers will remember you and then you went to Europe. You have
:20:33. > :20:41.experience politics in a number of places. The political landscape here
:20:42. > :20:46.has been completely changed, well on the front of the table -- paper
:20:47. > :20:50.today, political as quick, people are saying things will never be the
:20:51. > :20:55.same again, is that over egging the pudding? I think it will take some
:20:56. > :21:00.time before we are clear as to what the impact of the weekenders. What
:21:01. > :21:05.you are seeing is the beginnings of a realignment of Southern Irish
:21:06. > :21:09.politics around the centre left and centre right lines, whether or not
:21:10. > :21:14.Fianna Fail and Fine Gael enter into a collision and whether those on the
:21:15. > :21:16.left can cooperate to provide a clear and strong alternatives to
:21:17. > :21:20.those communities, we will have to wait and see. There are a lot of
:21:21. > :21:23.encouraging signs although I have to say there is more work for all of us
:21:24. > :21:37.to do. You stepped aside from front line
:21:38. > :21:40.politics in 2011 and I wonder with the renaissance of Fianna Fail do
:21:41. > :21:42.you regret not being involved? I have been working in Moscow. Having
:21:43. > :21:46.a very active involvement in a electoral sense was not likely but I
:21:47. > :21:50.came back to be part of their campaign for some of my friends.
:21:51. > :21:56.Some people wrote of their Dutch mag your party but it has bounced back
:21:57. > :22:01.well, did you think it would manage to come back so strongly in such a
:22:02. > :22:05.relatively short period of time or did you think that we were talking
:22:06. > :22:09.about a two election strategy at least? I am an optimist, I believed
:22:10. > :22:14.it six months after the last election that the party would come
:22:15. > :22:19.back. Because what happened within six months of the last election was
:22:20. > :22:25.that the current government voted in in an empty Dail that my late
:22:26. > :22:29.brother put through, it was controversial and lost votes and I
:22:30. > :22:33.think an awful lot of voters switched and that was reflected in
:22:34. > :22:37.the local election results where Fianna Fail became the biggest party
:22:38. > :22:40.in the country and generally speaking in our system of
:22:41. > :22:44.proportional representation, a strong local electoral outing is
:22:45. > :22:48.reflected in the seats in the Dail the next time around. That is very
:22:49. > :22:54.much the case in terms of the levels of support for Sinn Fein and Fianna
:22:55. > :22:58.Fail. If one aggregate their representation in the Dail and local
:22:59. > :23:01.election performance it is the biggest organisation that kind in
:23:02. > :23:06.this country. In membership terms and this is often forgotten, while
:23:07. > :23:09.Fianna Fail had a different experience in a two election
:23:10. > :23:13.scenario to get back into power, it is a bigger organisation on the
:23:14. > :23:17.ground in terms of local authority members and also actual members who
:23:18. > :23:24.go out and canvas and knocked on doors. That is often forgotten by
:23:25. > :23:26.some people who wrote of the party. Here is the question that everyone
:23:27. > :23:33.will be wanting to hear the answer to, do you think it is possible for
:23:34. > :23:39.Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to work together in a formal Coalition? Of
:23:40. > :23:44.course it is possible. What I would caution in terms of expectations is
:23:45. > :23:48.that the public in this General Election have voted very
:23:49. > :23:52.definitively to vote out Fine Gael and Labour out of power. There is
:23:53. > :23:56.nowhere party like Fianna Fail can ignore that message from the
:23:57. > :24:00.electorate. The seat losses that Fine Gael and Labour have incurred
:24:01. > :24:06.are of the same magnitude in numbers terms than we experienced in 2011,
:24:07. > :24:09.we were very definitively -- definitively booted out of power and
:24:10. > :24:14.the same numbers apply to the government. It will be difficult for
:24:15. > :24:18.Micheal Martin to convince ordinary Fianna Fail activists who have been
:24:19. > :24:23.campaigning to remove this government from power to say that we
:24:24. > :24:27.are going to put a very significant element of it, namely Fine Gael back
:24:28. > :24:31.into power. This will not be easy and could take a month or two months
:24:32. > :24:34.before it works itself out and the first priority for Micheal Martin
:24:35. > :24:41.and he has indicated already in terms of injuries that he has given
:24:42. > :24:43.would be to sit down and talk to all of the opposition parties who have
:24:44. > :24:49.opposed this government and give them the opportunity to be part of a
:24:50. > :24:54.Fianna Fail led Administration. That is his first priority because the
:24:55. > :24:58.public have become cynical if the vote in a definitive fashion against
:24:59. > :25:03.two sets of parties, the -- Fine Gael and Labour and they found that
:25:04. > :25:07.the system conspires to deny their rightful choice. There is no getting
:25:08. > :25:11.away from this, it will be very awkward and difficult, as difficult
:25:12. > :25:19.and awkward as it was for the Labour Party to change sides back in 1992
:25:20. > :25:24.and move from a Fine Gael led administration and a Fianna Fail led
:25:25. > :25:28.government. To think you should talk to the parties on the left? It is up
:25:29. > :25:32.to Micheal Martin to decide how to carry this out but he has given some
:25:33. > :25:37.hints that that is his plan. His plan is to talk to those who are
:25:38. > :25:43.part of the opposition. The people in Ireland have voted very
:25:44. > :25:47.definitively, not in an ambiguous manner, against the current or
:25:48. > :25:52.incumbent governments. This is not going to be work that simply. It is
:25:53. > :25:58.anything but straightforward because while you say... It is
:25:59. > :26:00.straightforward. The people have voted definitively against this
:26:01. > :26:06.current government and the seat losses are Ken... It is like me
:26:07. > :26:13.saying in 2011 they did not vote against Fianna Fail. When you look
:26:14. > :26:17.at the raw figures... It is also the case if Enda Kenny was here he would
:26:18. > :26:21.say that is the case up to a point but still more people have given
:26:22. > :26:30.their first preferences to Fianna Fail than they have -- Fine Gael
:26:31. > :26:34.than they have to Fianna Fail. It is perhaps one percentage point. There
:26:35. > :26:38.are still more people supporting Fine Gael and I am sure he would
:26:39. > :26:44.take a different view. It is important that Enda Kenny understand
:26:45. > :26:49.he has lost the election. The question is what happens next! You
:26:50. > :26:54.seem to have adamant that Sinn Fein does not want to be involved in a
:26:55. > :26:59.government led by either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. Not just me but the
:27:00. > :27:02.whole Sinn Fein organisation. Is there any point in having
:27:03. > :27:07.negotiations? We made clear at the start that the government led by
:27:08. > :27:10.those two parties would not be in the interests of the vast majority
:27:11. > :27:14.of people here. We said that before the election and we are not winter
:27:15. > :27:21.break that promise. Micheal Martin said he would not do business with
:27:22. > :27:26.anyone before the election. He was ruling out everyone else bar his own
:27:27. > :27:30.backbench. The idea that would be a great surprise if after the election
:27:31. > :27:34.Fianna Fail come out and do something different, it will not
:27:35. > :27:38.suppose anyone. Our view is clear, in order for this country to have
:27:39. > :27:42.the kind of their recovery that we believe is necessary, we need to put
:27:43. > :27:46.an end to the centre-right government is whether led by Fianna
:27:47. > :27:50.Fail or Fine Gael I'm I do not see how Fianna Fail could propose
:27:51. > :27:55.anything close to the kind of policy change we think is necessary to get
:27:56. > :27:59.this country back on track. It is a bizarre situation where a lot of the
:28:00. > :28:04.parties are lining up to be oppositional rather than to be in
:28:05. > :28:08.government. It is hard to see how he can get an opposition out of this. I
:28:09. > :28:10.do not think that is what is happening. Whereas in addition fame
:28:11. > :28:15.were being straight with the electorate to say we would not do a
:28:16. > :28:19.deal as a minority partner, inside Fianna Fail at senior levels, he has
:28:20. > :28:23.been in Russia and would not know this, they are looking at this as
:28:24. > :28:25.one of the scenarios and they were clearly hedging their bets. Wiley
:28:26. > :28:47.were telling the electorate they would not do a deal, there were
:28:48. > :28:51.strategists in the party working to see on what terms and those people
:28:52. > :28:54.are meeting and thinking and talking about whether they will do a deal
:28:55. > :28:56.with Fine Gael. Here is the big question, will it make any
:28:57. > :28:59.difference to those huge numbers of people who voted against Fine Gael
:29:00. > :29:01.and Labour and I do not think it will. I will not support a
:29:02. > :29:04.government led by Micheal Martin. There is hypocrisy going on here.
:29:05. > :29:06.Sinn Fein like all of those other parties contesting the election put
:29:07. > :29:09.themselves forward on the basis they would go into government and I think
:29:10. > :29:12.it is an comment on everyone who is elected to the Dail to take the
:29:13. > :29:14.election to the Dail seriously to the point that you would consider
:29:15. > :29:19.forming and providing the stability and the government that the country
:29:20. > :29:22.rightly expect would be an outcome from the election. It is
:29:23. > :29:26.irresponsible to say that we campaigned in this fashion and we
:29:27. > :29:30.will have nothing to do with the post-election scenario. I think most
:29:31. > :29:36.parties were judged an kindly when they would walk away in the
:29:37. > :29:41.aftermath of an election and there is a contradiction in Sinn Fein and
:29:42. > :29:44.the other parties who say they want Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to get
:29:45. > :29:48.together but they think it is the worst outcome for the country.
:29:49. > :29:52.Someone from the left said that last night on a panel show. Somehow they
:29:53. > :29:58.want us to come together, but it would be the worst outcome for the
:29:59. > :30:03.country! It would be a challenge! I know this idea is novel for a Fianna
:30:04. > :30:12.Fail but it is incumbent on parties keep their election promises. The
:30:13. > :30:16.primary responsibility on me and my colleagues in Sinn Fein is to honour
:30:17. > :30:21.those promises. I have to say, I do not want Fianna Fail or Fine Gael to
:30:22. > :30:24.coalesce, I think it would be a disaster. I campaigned against it
:30:25. > :30:28.but we are faced with the numbers as they currently stand and all I am
:30:29. > :30:33.saying is if we are going to have the kinds of changes that are going
:30:34. > :30:40.to improve the quality in people's lives, we need something other than
:30:41. > :30:42.the failed consensus politics. Is there any difference in emphasis
:30:43. > :30:47.between yourself and others within Sinn Fein? I saw Marylou McDonald as
:30:48. > :30:53.good as they may do not want to prop up either party but it would be a
:30:54. > :31:04.matter for the ard fheis. It is a matter for the ard fheis, none of us
:31:05. > :31:09.are going to go against that. I want to ask you one thing about the Sinn
:31:10. > :31:16.Fein performance. As we respect in, you're on about 13 seats, what do
:31:17. > :31:20.you think your final tally will be? We are in contention for probably
:31:21. > :31:23.another 11 or so, a lot of them will come down to the final counts. We
:31:24. > :31:27.are well placed in a lot of the constituencies because there were a
:31:28. > :31:30.good number of left of centre candidates coming in behind us,
:31:31. > :31:42.there are about 11 or 12 are but some of them are going to be very
:31:43. > :31:46.late counts, but it could be early tomorrow. Did the party do as well
:31:47. > :31:49.as it ought to have done in your view? Could it have done better? Is
:31:50. > :31:51.there a debate or discussion, which you may want to have behind closed
:31:52. > :31:54.doors, but I have to ask the question, or could the party have
:31:55. > :31:59.performed better with a different kind of blue to ship? There has been
:32:00. > :32:05.a lot of criticism of Gerry Adams in the television debates. We will sit
:32:06. > :32:08.down and have those discussions and do it constituency by constituency.
:32:09. > :32:14.In some constituencies we did exceptionally well and others we did
:32:15. > :32:19.not perform as well. Donegal is an example. I am thinking of Dublin
:32:20. > :32:24.West and Paul Donnelly not taking the seat even though I think he
:32:25. > :32:27.could have and should have. Any party that is significantly
:32:28. > :32:33.increasing its Seatech is having a good day. That is a good day for the
:32:34. > :32:40.party. Look at the make or, you pushed for a third seat and ended up
:32:41. > :32:45.with one! There is always a risk. I know this from my own days in north
:32:46. > :32:49.Belfast. When you are contending for significant seed increases you have
:32:50. > :32:51.to take risks and the good thing about Sinn Fein is rather than
:32:52. > :32:58.putting individuals ahead of the party we try and take the risks to
:32:59. > :33:02.maximise the seat. This is a good election for Sinn Fein and I think
:33:03. > :33:08.it clearly marks the trajectory of the growth of the party. Gerry Adams
:33:09. > :33:12.was enormously helpful to me in Dublin midwest. It caused no
:33:13. > :33:17.difficulties there and what that shows is when you have a good
:33:18. > :33:20.campaign on the airwaves and a good ground campaign, Sinn Fein can do
:33:21. > :33:30.exceptionally well. There is no doubt Sinn Fein have had
:33:31. > :33:34.a fantastic campaign. The historical political significance of this, Sinn
:33:35. > :33:38.Fein have replaced the Labour Party in every sense of the word, not just
:33:39. > :33:44.numerically in terms of seats in the Dail but also on the ground and many
:33:45. > :33:48.of the larger parties have ignored, deserted or not been active in local
:33:49. > :33:53.authority housing estate in the Republic. This party is heavily
:33:54. > :33:56.involved and reaping the benefits. The Labour Party is now fully
:33:57. > :34:02.replaced in the Irish political scene. It would be extremely
:34:03. > :34:05.difficult, however difficult it was for us, it will be extremely
:34:06. > :34:08.difficult for the Labour Party to comeback ever again in Irish
:34:09. > :34:13.politics because this is an active party on the ground. I will come
:34:14. > :34:18.back to you, because it is fascinating to hear what you have to
:34:19. > :34:23.say, but we are going to cross to our correspondent Shane Harrison who
:34:24. > :34:30.is at the RDS count centre. Are there some tired heads?
:34:31. > :34:34.It is a lot less busy here today than it was yesterday. A short time
:34:35. > :34:41.ago in Dublin Bay South, a constituency in which there were
:34:42. > :34:44.high hopes that the nephew of David Andrews, the Minister for Fianna
:34:45. > :34:47.Fail at the signing of the Good Friday agreement, would take a seat
:34:48. > :34:51.but he has just been eliminated and there are now five candidates
:34:52. > :34:56.fighting for four seats and counting will begin again in a short time in
:34:57. > :35:06.Dublin South Central in which there are 52 votes between the people
:35:07. > :35:09.looking for the last seat, and also counting going on in Dublin North
:35:10. > :35:17.West where two candidates are fighting for the last seats, that is
:35:18. > :35:23.between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. How close is it between the two of
:35:24. > :35:27.you? Extraordinarily close, I will be down to the wire with Fianna
:35:28. > :35:31.Fail. We have Labour elimination to come in the final round so we would
:35:32. > :35:38.hope it will see me over the line and be the first TD for the area in
:35:39. > :35:43.24 years. Quite an achievement if it happens, but you must be keeping an
:35:44. > :35:46.eye on what is happening across the country. Naturally, this
:35:47. > :35:52.constituency is a rare bright spot for us on an otherwise cloudy day.
:35:53. > :35:55.It seems we will come up short of meeting our expectations in terms of
:35:56. > :36:00.the number of seats and it seems we will have a fractured Dail so the
:36:01. > :36:06.concern is over the weeks ahead, forming a Government, exploring the
:36:07. > :36:10.options, trying to see if a Fine Gael minority Government will work,
:36:11. > :36:14.if Fianna Fail will work, or if we have to go back to the people. Do
:36:15. > :36:19.you think there is public appetite for another general election this
:36:20. > :36:22.year? I don't think so, it has been consistently coming up for me for
:36:23. > :36:27.the last three months, people didn't want to go back to the 80s with
:36:28. > :36:31.multiple elections. It seems as though this is the verdict they have
:36:32. > :36:35.delivered and we have to try to make that work first ball. If we can't
:36:36. > :36:40.after trying our best we go back to the people -- to make that work
:36:41. > :36:45.first ball. You spoke about the national picture, that it was a bad
:36:46. > :36:49.result, you were, or maybe, one of the few bright spots. In terms of
:36:50. > :36:56.Enda Kenny's future, what do you see happening? It will depend on where
:36:57. > :37:00.the final seats go. In my case, it could be a Fine Gael seat or a
:37:01. > :37:03.Fianna Fail seats. Seats like that will predict whether this is a very
:37:04. > :37:10.bad day for a Fine Gael or just a disappointing day. We could go from
:37:11. > :37:16.47 to 52, 53 seats, it really depends on those final seats. I
:37:17. > :37:21.remember a previous bad electoral defeat, he managed to save the
:37:22. > :37:26.situation, getting a deal with the Labour Party. Do you see that he may
:37:27. > :37:29.have to hang bug if there are to be negotiations with the Fianna Fail
:37:30. > :37:34.leader? I would see that to be the case, he has been our leader for 14
:37:35. > :37:40.years now, there is no doubt that he will be leading the negotiations. I
:37:41. > :37:44.would not say no to a bit of EU money at this point in time! But it
:37:45. > :37:48.remains to see what the future will hold for Ireland. The business
:37:49. > :37:55.markets have got to be shaken by this. We need to be very clear that
:37:56. > :37:58.we are open to negotiation. Other countries have also had problems
:37:59. > :38:02.forming a Government, how long do you think it will be before the
:38:03. > :38:07.markets deliver their verdict, and what might they say? It is difficult
:38:08. > :38:10.to say at this point on a Sunday morning. We need to emphasise that
:38:11. > :38:15.Ireland is stable, it is still a good place to invest, we will not
:38:16. > :38:18.lurch from one election to another if we can help it. Hopefully the
:38:19. > :38:21.markets can keep their confidence because they have been confident in
:38:22. > :38:26.Ireland for the last 18 months and we had to keep it that way.
:38:27. > :38:37.Thank you very much. As you can see, still all to play for in many
:38:38. > :38:40.constituencies here in the RDS, and who knows, it may be the middle of
:38:41. > :38:42.the week before we know what the final results are given the amount
:38:43. > :38:47.of constituencies that have had recounts.
:38:48. > :38:53.Thanks very much. Joining us from the count centre
:38:54. > :39:09.there, just a throw from the ITE studio where we are broadcasting
:39:10. > :39:15.this morning. I imagine you are not doing a great deal of smiling today.
:39:16. > :39:18.Conor Lenihan was writing the political epitaph pew moments ago, I
:39:19. > :39:23.think you might have caught the end of that. It sounded very like it!
:39:24. > :39:30.The significant thing, we although in Dublin, it is hard to dislodge
:39:31. > :39:33.Sinn Fein, so when they get into a position where they have replaced
:39:34. > :39:39.the Labour Party, it will be hard to dislodge them. It has been a
:39:40. > :39:42.difficult 48 hours, Maria? It has been a disappointing 48 hours, there
:39:43. > :39:47.is no way of getting away from that and I will not spin the result, but
:39:48. > :39:55.there are a number of seats still in contention. We are normally sitting
:39:56. > :39:59.at around 10%, we are down about 4% from what the traditional vote would
:40:00. > :40:05.be. It is disappointing, we have lost very many good people in the
:40:06. > :40:09.last couple of days, people have lost seats and staff members have
:40:10. > :40:14.lost seats, constituency offices have gone, but having said that we
:40:15. > :40:18.will take stock, have a look and we will be rebuilding, collar, so don't
:40:19. > :40:22.write us off just yet. There is a big irony in all of this that the
:40:23. > :40:29.Labour Party, a left of centre party, at a time posterity where
:40:30. > :40:33.anti-austerity parties and parties of the left and independence are
:40:34. > :40:37.doing so well, your party should have done so catastrophically badly.
:40:38. > :40:41.You had 37 seats this time five years ago, at the moment you are
:40:42. > :40:46.sitting at four. I don't know what you think the final number will be.
:40:47. > :40:52.We are in contention for another four. In terms of speaking red and
:40:53. > :40:58.party funding we would be looking at seven and above. The last election,
:40:59. > :41:05.for the Labour Party, was a very significant election, and I think we
:41:06. > :41:13.took votes from constituencies which have probably swung back to Fianna
:41:14. > :41:18.Fail and leaking votes towards the independents and other parties.
:41:19. > :41:22.There was no way we would match the vote of 2011, it wasn't possible, we
:41:23. > :41:27.knew that we would drop significantly from that and we have
:41:28. > :41:31.done so, and really it is about looking at what happened and trying
:41:32. > :41:35.to rebuild from there. There is a lesson, the same lesson that Nick
:41:36. > :41:40.Clegg, I suppose, got with the Lib Dems, you get involved as a minority
:41:41. > :41:45.party in Government, in a coalition, and you are likely to get a kick in,
:41:46. > :41:50.and that is exactly what has happened. Traditionally any smaller
:41:51. > :41:56.party in a coalition, but remember in 2011 the country was a dire place
:41:57. > :42:00.and we have less than 40% and did not know if people would be able to
:42:01. > :42:03.implement and I think history will look kindly on the Labour Party for
:42:04. > :42:07.being able to turn the country round. 100,000 people back into work
:42:08. > :42:11.and it is doubtful that if we have not gone in at that point the
:42:12. > :42:19.country would be not in the position it is now. Do you feel a bit sorry
:42:20. > :42:24.for the Labour Party? At a personal level because I had friends who are
:42:25. > :42:27.members of the Labour Party, some of the unsuccessful candidates, so I
:42:28. > :42:30.have a personal commiseration, but there is a lesson for all others,
:42:31. > :42:35.particularly smaller parties, from what has happened this weekend. It
:42:36. > :42:38.is not just that smaller parties traditionally do badly, smaller
:42:39. > :42:41.parties make strong promises to the electorate to get elected and then
:42:42. > :42:49.break many of those promises once they are in office, get punished by
:42:50. > :42:55.the electorate. The vote collapsed two and half thousand from 13,000 in
:42:56. > :42:59.2011, and two people that I know well, they said they would not cut
:43:00. > :43:02.child benefit, they did, they said they would not cut basic social
:43:03. > :43:06.welfare rates, and they did, they said they would stand up for working
:43:07. > :43:11.families, and I am not making this up, if you vote for working families
:43:12. > :43:16.who voted for Robert and Joanna in 2011 there is a visible anger
:43:17. > :43:24.because they feel let down. When the economy is turned around at that
:43:25. > :43:27.macro level, things have not got better for many people, particularly
:43:28. > :43:32.those families that are homeless, and that is the reason why, and I
:43:33. > :43:35.suppose for those of us who are committed to real change, who want
:43:36. > :43:39.to see a better quality society, and many people in the Labour Party I
:43:40. > :43:43.don't do believe in a better society, you cannot achieve that if
:43:44. > :43:47.you are in a Government led by a centre-right partly with a different
:43:48. > :43:49.social and economic policy, and that for me is the lesson of this
:43:50. > :44:05.weekend. I don't want to overplay this but the
:44:06. > :44:08.question I want to ask, and I know a lot of commentators have touched on
:44:09. > :44:10.it on other programmes, are we possibly looking at some kind of
:44:11. > :44:12.fundamental political realignment or recalibration at the moment where
:44:13. > :44:14.politics in the Republic of Ireland moves from the old divisions to a
:44:15. > :44:18.completely new arrangement where people actually vote and stand for
:44:19. > :44:24.votes based on a left- right split? Is that beginning to happen now, 70,
:44:25. > :44:28.80, 100 years on from where this date was founded? I studied
:44:29. > :44:32.political science and history just up the road from here, scientists
:44:33. > :44:35.were talking about this when I was in college and it has never
:44:36. > :44:39.happened. There is a strong centrifugal element to Irish
:44:40. > :44:42.politics, Ireland is different from Britain, it is different from
:44:43. > :44:47.continental Europe and from America, so I think this kind of solution
:44:48. > :44:54.that everything would be better off if we had a crude left- right
:44:55. > :44:59.divide, politics would almost be easy to explain to people looking
:45:00. > :45:03.in, but I don't think it is going to happen. Our system is much more akin
:45:04. > :45:09.to what you might call the Australian political system, which
:45:10. > :45:12.is very similar to Ireland, with nuanced differences between two big
:45:13. > :45:17.parties, and I don't think we will ever go into a very straight
:45:18. > :45:21.left/right division. But you are seeing realignment in people and
:45:22. > :45:26.voters' requirements, they are looking for parties to redeem their
:45:27. > :45:29.promises. I feel sorry for Joan Burton in this election because most
:45:30. > :45:34.of the promises made by the Labour Party before the last election were
:45:35. > :45:38.made by her predecessor, not by her, so she had the unenviable task of
:45:39. > :45:43.picking up the pieces from a series of very significant promises which
:45:44. > :45:46.actually Fine Gael and Labour, but particularly Labour, they had
:45:47. > :45:54.absolutely no need to make those promises. It was well before the
:45:55. > :45:57.election happened in 2011 and it was wrong and foolish in my view Fine
:45:58. > :46:02.Gael and Labour to make some of the outlandish promises that they made
:46:03. > :46:05.in 2011. Let that stand as a warning to everybody in politics, not
:46:06. > :46:11.picking on the Labour Party year, but you make promises that are out
:46:12. > :46:17.of your power, the public remember these and can breed a certain havoc
:46:18. > :46:22.revenge because of it. We all remember the statement that it would
:46:23. > :46:26.be Frankfurt's way or Labour's way, it was a gravity defying statement
:46:27. > :46:30.because frankly Islanders in the middle of the European currency zone
:46:31. > :46:33.and cannot act unilaterally against the interests of pretty much
:46:34. > :46:39.everybody else in that currency zone. That is the core of the
:46:40. > :46:46.problem for Labour and the reason it has collapsed. I don't wish this
:46:47. > :46:53.position on them, Fianna Fail had a very happy if somewhat contentious
:46:54. > :46:57.coalition with Labour in the past. So you are clear on that, you think
:46:58. > :47:02.it is an oversimplification in understanding what is happening. Do
:47:03. > :47:04.you think that is what is happening, or do you think that is what ought
:47:05. > :47:15.to happen? That was the Labour Party manifesto
:47:16. > :47:19.going into government and once it got there and it had to agree to a
:47:20. > :47:23.programme of government and was a negotiation and we punched above our
:47:24. > :47:26.weight in relation to the programme for government and we delivered --
:47:27. > :47:31.delivered on many things. Where the failure came in was the
:47:32. > :47:34.communication between the manifesto and the programme for government.
:47:35. > :47:41.There is a lesson in terms of the discussion around the current Fine
:47:42. > :47:46.Gael and Fianna Fail Coalition and I think Fianna Fail would be in a
:47:47. > :47:50.worse position to go into government with Fine Gael because it would
:47:51. > :47:54.leave Sinn Fein as the largest opposition party. Sinn Fein could
:47:55. > :47:59.then potentially up its vote and I do not think and I have a good
:48:00. > :48:02.respect for him and I am happy you got your seat but I think you would
:48:03. > :48:07.probably accept that you have gone below the level of what you expected
:48:08. > :48:11.to get in their selection as have Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. It has
:48:12. > :48:17.not been a great election for anyone, it has been disappointing
:48:18. > :48:22.for us but across the board, bad for anyone. It has been good for the
:48:23. > :48:29.independence of the smaller parties. It has not been bad, but by any
:48:30. > :48:32.standards, the increase is impressive, but it is not anything
:48:33. > :48:36.like some of the wilder claims made by other members of the party six
:48:37. > :48:41.months ago. Not by some members of the party but by some pollsters and
:48:42. > :48:45.columnist. The best way for a political party to grow is solidly
:48:46. > :48:50.unsteadily because then people come to vote positively for what you are
:48:51. > :48:53.doing. We did not want a spring tide because what comes in the quickly
:48:54. > :48:58.goes out quickly. I prefer to be here with a 60% increase and talking
:48:59. > :49:07.about 40 seats, of course I would, but you cannot doubt that the party
:49:08. > :49:09.has had a good election in terms of potentially 11 extra seats and
:49:10. > :49:13.whatever about government formation, Sinn Fein will continue to do what
:49:14. > :49:15.we were doing up until now which is campaigning on the ground in
:49:16. > :49:19.communities that are disadvantaged and arguing clearly that if we want
:49:20. > :49:25.that crucial recovery and investment in good quality jobs and public
:49:26. > :49:28.services we need to have an end to government led by either Fianna Fail
:49:29. > :49:33.or Fine Gael and government about delivering a different society and
:49:34. > :49:36.that is what motivated the two get involved in politics in Belfast and
:49:37. > :49:38.motivated me to stand here and I think we have had a good election
:49:39. > :49:51.and we will a good period of time ahead.
:49:52. > :49:54.Not going to be in government North and South on the occasion of the
:49:55. > :49:56.100th anniversary of the 1960 rising and some people thought that was a
:49:57. > :49:59.possibility. We would have wanted to achieve that. There is no point
:50:00. > :50:02.being in government are particularly as a junior part -- Michael Partner
:50:03. > :50:08.to prop up the policies you do not agree with. I would much prefer to
:50:09. > :50:11.be in government in two or three years' time in the right kind of
:50:12. > :50:14.government than be in a bad government now not delivering for
:50:15. > :50:23.the people who I am honoured to have been elected by yesterday. I am
:50:24. > :50:25.going to pause for a second or two. The election has been a disaster for
:50:26. > :50:34.Fine Gael. In an interview with RTE, even
:50:35. > :50:39.McGraw refused to be drawn on the possible idea of a grand Coalition
:50:40. > :50:47.with Fianna Fail. It can be really disappointing to lose a seat,
:50:48. > :50:53.democracy can be mercilessly kicks zone -- Enda Kenny. You can argue
:50:54. > :50:59.about the decision of the people, but you cannot argue with that. The
:51:00. > :51:03.government of Fine Gael and Labour will not be returned to office and
:51:04. > :51:08.obviously one has to wait until all of the counts are in right across
:51:09. > :51:13.the country to see what the options that must be considered are. In the
:51:14. > :51:18.last week we had four polls with 20 or 30% coming from where we had to
:51:19. > :51:23.travel in the last five years with our sovereignty gone, there are a
:51:24. > :51:26.difficult choices to be made. Elections are about choices and we
:51:27. > :51:30.have to accept the verdict of the people, but that the boat is now
:51:31. > :51:38.history except for the counting and clearly when the results are in from
:51:39. > :51:43.every constituency, we have a duty to consider how best to proceed
:51:44. > :51:48.ahead for the future -- vote. As Taoiseach I have a duty and response
:51:49. > :51:52.ability as head of government and to continue in this role to see best
:51:53. > :51:56.how we might be able to put together a government for the future because
:51:57. > :52:00.clearly the government needs a government and must have one.
:52:01. > :52:04.Clearly the option of a majority government has gone, clearly the
:52:05. > :52:07.option of a Fine Gael and Labour government has gone, we do not know
:52:08. > :52:11.the figures for all the other parties yet, I need to know those
:52:12. > :52:16.before I decide what is the best thing to do given my responsibility
:52:17. > :52:22.and my duty as Taoiseach. I consider that very carefully, obviously over
:52:23. > :52:30.the next 36 or 48 hours as those results become clear. Enda Kenny,
:52:31. > :52:35.the Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael speaking on RTE last night. My
:52:36. > :52:41.guests have rejoined me. Welcome back. Some interesting thoughts from
:52:42. > :52:48.my political guests. Let us pick up on Enda Kenny. Do you think he can
:52:49. > :52:52.continue as Taoiseach in the short-term in an acting capacity? Do
:52:53. > :52:56.you think he will continue in the longer term to lead Fine Gael? In my
:52:57. > :53:00.look extraordinary from outside because no matter what happens or
:53:01. > :53:05.how bad this election has been for the government, his waltz to be the
:53:06. > :53:09.biggest party in Parliament. From hearing comments from his party
:53:10. > :53:13.colleagues this morning, I am not hearing them rushing towards him,
:53:14. > :53:16.endorsing his leadership. There is a bit of a tiptoeing away from that
:53:17. > :53:21.position which strikes me as something that is happening very
:53:22. > :53:25.quickly. I dare say when you and I meet again there could be someone
:53:26. > :53:30.else in charge and that is not the only party that could experience a
:53:31. > :53:38.change of leadership. He would have to look at what will happen to
:53:39. > :53:43.Labour, the Tanaiste did retain her seat in very tricky conditions last
:53:44. > :53:48.night, but with the party so drastically reduced, that party went
:53:49. > :53:53.in to the last Dail with 37 seats and is now sitting on four, it will
:53:54. > :53:57.probably claw back a bit but its support has been so badly eating
:53:58. > :54:03.into that there will be questions asked about the leadership. The Sinn
:54:04. > :54:08.Fein leadership is a constant topic of conversation in the Republic and
:54:09. > :54:16.Gerry Adams had a few very weak media performances. I do not think
:54:17. > :54:19.he is known as a man with a grasp of detail. On the ground, he is hugely
:54:20. > :54:23.popular. That is absolutely the case and his boat getting rid of it is
:54:24. > :54:28.remain undiminished, look how well he has done in his own constituency
:54:29. > :54:34.of Louth where he is set to bring in the first female TD, Imelda Munster.
:54:35. > :54:39.I think the party grassroots do not have a problem with him in that
:54:40. > :54:43.regard. Do you think that we will see political change in terms of
:54:44. > :54:49.leadership, is that inevitable in the weeks and months ahead. It is
:54:50. > :54:53.very difficult at the moment. A lot of the party leaders, possibly with
:54:54. > :54:57.the exception of Joel Burton can point to a mixed bag. There are good
:54:58. > :55:03.and bad things happening, even for Fine Gael, though vote is down but
:55:04. > :55:08.they can point to constituencies like Dun Laoghaire with they won
:55:09. > :55:12.three out of four seats. For the party leaders, it could be some time
:55:13. > :55:18.and there will be a lot of analysis for the second and third
:55:19. > :55:22.preferences, the transfers, how the two government parties, where their
:55:23. > :55:27.votes went to and for those parties who are gaining, why did they not
:55:28. > :55:30.gain more. Did they have bad strategies? How much blame can be
:55:31. > :55:35.laid at the door of the leaders. I wonder what you made of Conor
:55:36. > :55:40.Lenihan, he was determined that if we can take one thing out of this
:55:41. > :55:44.set of election results, it is that people voted against the government
:55:45. > :55:48.led by Fine Gael and the Labour Party. In one respect, you can see
:55:49. > :55:52.exactly where he is coming from, but the point I was making is that it is
:55:53. > :55:55.still the case that Fine Gael is likely to be the biggest party and
:55:56. > :55:59.also the biggest party in terms of seats. For the first time in its
:56:00. > :56:04.history. It is anything but straightforward. Many of your
:56:05. > :56:09.viewers are thinking, what is the problem with this concept of a grand
:56:10. > :56:13.Coalition because I heard an outgoing Fine Gael TD who was a real
:56:14. > :56:17.stall word of the party saying yesterday that there is a cigarette
:56:18. > :56:21.paper between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael idea logically. If you were to
:56:22. > :56:25.look at their manifestos and policies, there is not a massive
:56:26. > :56:33.amount of difference, one party is vaguely centre-left and the other
:56:34. > :56:36.party is vaguely centre-right, but if you are just thinking ideology,
:56:37. > :56:39.it is difficult to understand why they cannot form a Coalition. I hope
:56:40. > :56:49.we have tried to explain the historical difficulties. A thought?
:56:50. > :56:55.I took his remarks to be mainly positioning. I was not using the
:56:56. > :57:00.term about censoring, but in terms of the party, because they want to
:57:01. > :57:05.resist any orientation toward left or right politics because they would
:57:06. > :57:08.see themselves soon and into a big position where they have positioned
:57:09. > :57:16.themselves slightly more to the centre-left. They're not giving up
:57:17. > :57:21.on left-wing votes. They do not want to push them towards Sinn Fein or
:57:22. > :57:27.other groups. I would be interested on Mary's thoughts on if Enda Kenny
:57:28. > :57:31.goes, who would take its place? Some of the people have talked about the
:57:32. > :57:36.Justice Minister, is he the only one would be others you would fancy more
:57:37. > :57:40.than that? There certainly is the Justice Minister, but she had a
:57:41. > :57:44.wobbly campaign, there were number of gangland shootings, an unexpected
:57:45. > :57:50.factor in this campaign. There are too young bucks as well, their
:57:51. > :57:53.Health Minister the Agriculture Minister, one in Dublin and one in
:57:54. > :58:00.Cork and they would be considered to be the contenders for a new leader
:58:01. > :58:03.of Fine Gael if that were to happen. I do not think anything will happen
:58:04. > :58:09.suddenly. What we have to think about is the fact that the country
:58:10. > :58:12.needs a government, a Coalition is about compromise, not about cosy
:58:13. > :58:16.consensus, what you're hearing from Sinn Fein is that they have learned
:58:17. > :58:21.the lessons and mistakes of the Labour Party. You see that
:58:22. > :58:25.everywhere, in Britain, how the Liberal Democrats were so severely
:58:26. > :58:28.punished for going into Coalition with the Conservatives and rolling
:58:29. > :58:32.back on promises even though they would argue that they had such a
:58:33. > :58:36.small amount of power to wield. There might be people with a wry
:58:37. > :58:44.sense of humour back home in Northern Ireland thinking there is a
:58:45. > :58:47.lot to be said for a mandatory Coalition, because it gets rid of
:58:48. > :59:01.all this confusion! I will speak to you in a moment. For Sinn Fein,...
:59:02. > :59:04.For Sinn Fein, the constituency of Louth has proved to be very
:59:05. > :59:06.successful with Gerry Adams topping the poll and Imelda Munster set
:59:07. > :59:08.to be the first woman TD for the area.
:59:09. > :59:11.The constituency had also seen key battles between Fianna Fail,
:59:12. > :59:14.Our Political Correspondent Stephen Walker reports from the count
:59:15. > :59:18.Even before any of the results were declared, it was obvious from
:59:19. > :59:21.unofficial tallies which party was going to steal the headlines. In
:59:22. > :59:24.County Louth. One of the stories here was the performance of Sinn
:59:25. > :59:29.Fein with the party President Gerry Adams topping the poll and party
:59:30. > :59:33.activists are also thrilled with the performance of Imelda Munster. I
:59:34. > :59:37.take immense pride in the fact that the first day I will be the first
:59:38. > :59:43.woman ever elected in County Louth but I would be the first Sinn Fein
:59:44. > :59:47.woman ever elected as TD year. What was the campaign like? It was very
:59:48. > :59:52.positive, great response at the doors, people were up for a change,
:59:53. > :59:56.that was very evident. We had an excellent campaign, right the way
:59:57. > :00:01.through and you can see the results today are looking extremely helpful.
:00:02. > :00:05.Sinn Fein party President Gerry Adams said the vote across Ireland
:00:06. > :00:09.showed that people had rejected the political establishment. One thing
:00:10. > :00:13.is for certain, this change is going to continue. There is not a
:00:14. > :00:19.progressive government elected this time, that it is only matter time
:00:20. > :00:22.before one is elected. No, it is our position and I am bound by that I
:00:23. > :00:27.happen to agree with itself we do have a proposition to go into
:00:28. > :00:30.government, we will go to the party and they will make the decision.
:00:31. > :00:35.While it was a good day for Sinn Fein, other parties clearly suffered
:00:36. > :00:39.at the hands of the electorate. For the Labour Party, there is big
:00:40. > :00:43.disappointment here and the drop in support mirrors the difficulties the
:00:44. > :00:49.party is facing in other areas of the country. For Fianna Fail and
:00:50. > :00:54.Fine Gael there were nervous moments at the count centre as both camps
:00:55. > :00:57.waited to see if the candidates were successful. As the votes were
:00:58. > :01:04.analysed, certain patterns became clear. Louth is like a microcosm in
:01:05. > :01:10.reflecting what the people have reflected and that is that they are
:01:11. > :01:14.looking for a change. It is clear that Fianna Fail will be part of the
:01:15. > :01:20.change. I think we will deliver 40 seats or more. For those in Fine
:01:21. > :01:24.Gael the results across the country did not make pleasant reading.
:01:25. > :01:29.Nationally, very disappointed, but we must listen to the people and act
:01:30. > :01:33.on that. Can you see Fine Gael still been in power? The most of thing is
:01:34. > :01:38.that the people have spoken and we will wait and see what way the votes
:01:39. > :01:42.work out for each party and it will take another day to look at that. 16
:01:43. > :01:47.candidates stood here and battle for five seats. The political landscape
:01:48. > :01:59.of Louth has changed and so too has the Dail.
:02:00. > :02:07.Let's hear more from Shane Harrison at the count centre. Painter picked
:02:08. > :02:12.up what is happening there. -- paint a picture. There are a
:02:13. > :02:17.number of recounts going on, and number of cans are continuing. In
:02:18. > :02:21.Dublin Bay South, five candidates battling for four seats, two Fine
:02:22. > :02:25.Gael candidates, the leader of the Green Party, the Fianna Fail
:02:26. > :02:29.candidate, whose brother is a well-known ITE presenter, and Kevin
:02:30. > :02:36.Humphreys from the Labour Party. In Dublin north-west, as we heard
:02:37. > :02:42.earlier, it is between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and in Dublin Bay
:02:43. > :02:52.South, Dublin South Central, rather, you have two candidates, fighting
:02:53. > :02:58.for the last seat. So this will continue all day, possibly into
:02:59. > :03:08.tomorrow. Thank you very much indeed. Let's
:03:09. > :03:11.hear more from my guests. A word about the independents because we
:03:12. > :03:18.have not talked about that in any great detail. In percentage terms,
:03:19. > :03:24.and indeed in terms of the seat is that that block, if you can think of
:03:25. > :03:32.it as a block, will hold in the 32nd broil, it is not insignificant? --
:03:33. > :03:35.the 32nd Dail. So many people have turned their back on what they
:03:36. > :03:39.considered the establishment parties, increasingly Sinn Fein
:03:40. > :03:43.being that in there, much to their disgust, I imagine, but they have
:03:44. > :03:48.said, a plague on all your houses, we don't want to go back to the old
:03:49. > :03:51.ways and vote along party lines, people saying, I will vote for my
:03:52. > :03:57.local man or woman who will get things done for me, so definitely
:03:58. > :04:02.that was very clear in all of the opinion polls in the run-up to the
:04:03. > :04:07.selection and indeed in the exit follows that the independents would
:04:08. > :04:12.do well. What that means for Government formation and the make-up
:04:13. > :04:14.of the next Dail is anyone's guest, we are in uncharted territory
:04:15. > :04:21.because people in the Republic have tended to be very conservative,
:04:22. > :04:26.voting along Family Lives, in the traditional way they have always
:04:27. > :04:32.voted -- voting along Family Lives. So this move is fresh and new. The
:04:33. > :04:35.history of the state is that parish boundaries were very important and
:04:36. > :04:39.those individual TDs were very powerful people in their own
:04:40. > :04:44.constituencies. I just wonder what power do they bring in terms of
:04:45. > :04:48.Government or opposition to the business of running the country? It
:04:49. > :04:55.is a complicating factor, isn't it, Muiris? It is, and in 2011 the Irish
:04:56. > :05:00.Parliament and the lower house, which is what we're talking about,
:05:01. > :05:03.produced proportionally one of the highest grouping of independents in
:05:04. > :05:08.the world so there is already a president, but it is set to grow. It
:05:09. > :05:14.goes all sorts of constitutional questions in terms if you are
:05:15. > :05:18.relying on a large of independents, can and independent ever have a
:05:19. > :05:20.Cabinet seat? Independents in Northern Ireland, there is a
:05:21. > :05:25.perception that they lead to stability but the record shows that
:05:26. > :05:28.governments that have relied on small numbers of independents are
:05:29. > :05:32.extremely reliable. The trouble comes from party backbenchers and so
:05:33. > :05:37.on, those you have agreed deals with love and early on have statistically
:05:38. > :05:43.proved to be very reliable voters in the chamber, as it were -- those who
:05:44. > :05:51.have agreed deals with governments early on. Because the numbers are so
:05:52. > :05:55.big, neither Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, or any combination, could
:05:56. > :05:59.depend on two or three independents to make the difference, the maths is
:06:00. > :06:06.so complicated. You could do two or three deals but if it comes to doing
:06:07. > :06:10.20 or 30 local deals, it becomes extremely difficult, and that is why
:06:11. > :06:13.it'll be an extra complicating factor in the negotiations we are
:06:14. > :06:19.talking about with the formation of Government. And the independents are
:06:20. > :06:24.doing well in general Ireland, which would not have been traditional,
:06:25. > :06:30.into the rarer, a few seats have gone to independents. There is the
:06:31. > :06:34.issue in respect of gender quotas and so on, could the independents
:06:35. > :06:41.form a party, what would the consequences be for the voters and
:06:42. > :06:45.so on, but they are possibly less fragmented than one might think. In
:06:46. > :06:51.this other grouping we have the social Democrats, who have popped up
:06:52. > :06:54.recently as a party, a loose amalgamation of disaffected party
:06:55. > :06:59.members. Their three leaders have won three seats. They are doing
:07:00. > :07:14.extremely well. They have eaten into the Labour but possibly quite a lot.
:07:15. > :07:23.Another small party has taken off. So this other pillar in Irish
:07:24. > :07:30.politics is extremely important. Explain the Healy Rae phenomenon for
:07:31. > :07:33.us? Two have been enacted in the same constituency and it is a name
:07:34. > :07:38.people might be familiar with and there are all sorts of social media
:07:39. > :07:41.jokes, people wearing flat caps and so on, but joking aside they are a
:07:42. > :07:45.phenomenal political force in that part of the country. They are a
:07:46. > :07:52.political dynasty to be reckoned with, their father Jackie Healy Rae
:07:53. > :07:55.would have propped up the vote he is -- the voting. He did well on behalf
:07:56. > :08:00.of his constituents, would have bought a lot of money and work and
:08:01. > :08:04.building and so on into the constituency, so the legacy
:08:05. > :08:10.continues, if you like, and one of his sons was a TD last time around
:08:11. > :08:14.and there was much consternation when an independent TD called Tom
:08:15. > :08:17.Fleming, at the last minute, seems to drop out of the race all of a
:08:18. > :08:21.sudden and then the other brother, the other Healy Rae, was brought on
:08:22. > :08:27.board and they seemed to be romping home, they seemed to be doing very,
:08:28. > :08:31.very well, but as Mark has said, back in the Bertie Ahern days it was
:08:32. > :08:36.feasible to have a small number of independents propping up a Fianna
:08:37. > :08:40.Fail Administration, plenty of money washing around, that was the keeping
:08:41. > :08:45.to stress. The state does not have the kind of funds now to supply
:08:46. > :08:49.motorways and hospitals and so on in far-flung constituencies around the
:08:50. > :08:52.country. We will talk about gender quotas in a moment but before that,
:08:53. > :08:57.we need to talk about the Labour Party and their leader, Joan Burton,
:08:58. > :09:01.did hold onto her seat but for many colleagues lose out in the selection
:09:02. > :09:04.and also saw her party's vote slumped dramatically. She says they
:09:05. > :09:09.will consider where they went wrong. I think in Irish elections there is
:09:10. > :09:14.a combination of two factors. There is a general national factor and
:09:15. > :09:18.then the ground war of the constituency on the ground. People
:09:19. > :09:22.often say that you are talking about a whole series of different
:09:23. > :09:27.elections. In the constituency here in particular we have made a huge
:09:28. > :09:30.amount of progress in areas like providing new schools and
:09:31. > :09:34.refurbishing and rebuilding all schools, investing into the health
:09:35. > :09:37.services and primary care centres, getting people back to work. We have
:09:38. > :09:42.a lot of other issues to address, which we are working on at the
:09:43. > :09:45.moment, housing in particular and obviously general health issues. I
:09:46. > :09:53.suppose people see me as I have always been, a worker, in so far as
:09:54. > :09:56.I can, on their behalf. I'm very, very disappointed that so many very
:09:57. > :10:02.fine public representatives will not be returning under the Labour Party
:10:03. > :10:08.banner. I have had an opportunity today to talk by phone to quite a
:10:09. > :10:15.lot of people who lost out, and I know how hard they, their families,
:10:16. > :10:19.the Labour Party member ship and the support teams worked to return them,
:10:20. > :10:24.it didn't happen this time. Obviously we will have to reflect in
:10:25. > :10:31.the coming days on what we do now as we go forward. The Labour Party
:10:32. > :10:37.stands for progressive politics, the Labour Party stands also not just
:10:38. > :10:40.for a good economy and better employment and working conditions
:10:41. > :10:47.for people, but also for social progress. We will be talking about
:10:48. > :10:50.that next week. I was asked to take over the leadership under very
:10:51. > :10:55.difficult conditions, together with my colleagues I have worked as hard
:10:56. > :11:01.as possible to bring Labour Party values, Labour Party principles into
:11:02. > :11:04.the heart of Irish politics, about getting people jobs and employment,
:11:05. > :11:09.and about improving people's lives and making social conditions better.
:11:10. > :11:13.They remain at the heart of what Labour wants to do in Ireland, and
:11:14. > :11:19.we will continue with that even though today we have had a setback.
:11:20. > :11:23.The Labour leader Joan Burton. Let's talk about gender quotas. It has
:11:24. > :11:30.been an issue, Mary, talk about the significance. What parties had to do
:11:31. > :11:34.under a new law was ensured 30% of their candidates going into this
:11:35. > :11:39.election were female and if they did not hit the target then a very
:11:40. > :11:42.significant funding cut would be faced, 50% of their state funding,
:11:43. > :11:47.which is millions for some of the bigger parties. It has caused
:11:48. > :11:50.difficulties for parties around the country because particularly "party
:11:51. > :11:57.of out" Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have had to tag on some extra women
:11:58. > :12:01.-- particularly parties like. I'm not entirely convinced it has had a
:12:02. > :12:06.huge impact as yet, though it is early days. Let's just take a quick
:12:07. > :12:14.look at the state of the parties. A few changes while we have been on
:12:15. > :12:19.air. This is now with 98 out of 158 seats, 29 for Fianna Fail, four for
:12:20. > :12:23.Labour, 28 for Fine Gael, 13 for Sinn Fein and 24 for the
:12:24. > :12:27.independents and others. We hear that Gerry Adams is likely to be
:12:28. > :12:31.returned in County Down, likely to be returned within the next few
:12:32. > :12:38.minutes. That is about it, thank you all very much indeed from this
:12:39. > :12:41.special edition of Sunday Politics. It will be intriguing to see how
:12:42. > :12:44.things unfold here in the next few weeks.
:12:45. > :12:47.Join me for Stormont Today on Monday night at 11.15pm on BBC Two.
:12:48. > :12:50.And no doubt we'll touch on the significance of what's been
:12:51. > :12:51.happening here over the weekend in Thursday's View,
:12:52. > :12:55.For now, though, from everyone on the programme,
:12:56. > :13:40.clearly the Government of Fine Gael and Labour are not going to be
:13:41. > :13:48.returned to office.