:00:37. > :00:47.No surprise that Mr Cameron didn't get his way at the European summit.
:00:48. > :00:50.But does it mean Britain has just moved closer to the EU exit?
:00:51. > :00:56.A sensible health measure or the health lobby's secret plan all
:00:57. > :01:11.A new round of talks ahead of this summer's twelfth get underway this
:01:12. > :01:18.week, but can anything be achieved when time is so tight and the past
:01:19. > :01:30.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:31. > :01:41.panel in the business Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.
:01:42. > :01:43.They've had their usual cognac, or Juncker as it's known in
:01:44. > :01:46.Luxembourg, for breakfast and will be tweeting under the influence.
:01:47. > :01:48.He's a boozing, chain-smoking, millionaire bon viveur who's made
:01:49. > :01:50.it big in the world of European politic.
:01:51. > :01:54.I speak of Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg
:01:55. > :01:58.He'll soon be President of the European Commission,
:01:59. > :02:04.He wasn't David Cameron's choice of course.
:02:05. > :02:07.But those the PM thought were his allies deserted him and he ended up
:02:08. > :02:22.on the wrong end of a 26-2 vote in favour of Arch-Fedrealist Juncker.
:02:23. > :02:26.-- on the wrong end of a 26-2 vote in favour of Arch-Federalist
:02:27. > :02:28.So where does this leave Mr Cameron's hopes
:02:29. > :02:31.of major reform and repatriation of EU powers back to the UK?
:02:32. > :02:35.Let's speak to his Europe Minister David Lidington.
:02:36. > :02:42.Welcome to the programme. The Prime Minister says that now with Mr
:02:43. > :02:45.Juncker at the helm, the battle to keep Britain in the EU has got
:02:46. > :02:50.harder. In what way has it got harder? For two reasons. The
:02:51. > :02:56.majority of the leaders have accepted the process that shifts
:02:57. > :03:00.power, it will not careful, from the elected heads of government right
:03:01. > :03:08.cross Europe to the party bosses, the faction leaders in the European
:03:09. > :03:17.Parliament and and the disaffection was made clear in many European
:03:18. > :03:20.countries. Mr Juncker had a distinguished period as head of
:03:21. > :03:23.Luxembourg, and was not a known reformer, but we have to judge on
:03:24. > :03:25.how he leads the commission and there were some elements in the
:03:26. > :03:31.mandate that the heads of government gave this week to the new incoming
:03:32. > :03:36.European Commission that I think are cautiously encouraging for us. The
:03:37. > :03:42.Prime Minister talked about those that not everybody wants to
:03:43. > :03:48.integrate and to the same extent and speed. Let me just interrupt you.
:03:49. > :03:52.What is new about saying that Europe can go closer to closer union at
:03:53. > :04:01.different speeds? That has always been the case. It's nothing new.
:04:02. > :04:11.Indeed there are precedents, and they are good examples of the
:04:12. > :04:16.approach as part of the course and one of the elements that the Prime
:04:17. > :04:19.Minister is taking forward in the strategy is to get general
:04:20. > :04:24.acceptance that while we agree that most of the partners have agreed to
:04:25. > :04:27.the single currency will want to press forward with closer
:04:28. > :04:32.integration of their economic and tax policies, but not every country
:04:33. > :04:37.in the EU is going to want to do that. We have to see the pattern
:04:38. > :04:41.that has grown up enough to recognise there is a diverse EU with
:04:42. > :04:46.28 member states and more in the future. We won't all integrate the
:04:47. > :04:52.extent. It is a matter of a pattern that is differentiation and
:04:53. > :04:55.integration. I understand that. John Major used to call it variable
:04:56. > :04:59.geometry, and other phrases nobody used to understand, but the point is
:05:00. > :05:03.that you're back benches don't want any union at any speed, even in the
:05:04. > :05:09.slow lane. They want to go in the other direction. It depends which
:05:10. > :05:22.backbencher you talk to. There's a diverse range of views. I think that
:05:23. > :05:25.there is acceptance that the core of the Prime Minister's approaches to
:05:26. > :05:28.seek reform of the European Union, for renegotiation after the
:05:29. > :05:32.election, then put it to the British people to decide. It won't be the
:05:33. > :05:36.British government or ministers that take the final decision, it's the
:05:37. > :05:38.British people, provided they are a Conservative government, who will
:05:39. > :05:42.take the decision on the basis of the reforms that David Cameron
:05:43. > :05:46.secures whether they want to stay in or not. Is there more of a chance,
:05:47. > :05:52.not a certainty or probability, but at least more of a chance that with
:05:53. > :05:58.Mr Juncker in that position of Britain leaving the EU? I don't
:05:59. > :06:02.think we can say that at the moment. I think we can say that the task of
:06:03. > :06:10.reform looks harder than it did a couple of weeks ago. But we have do
:06:11. > :06:22.put Mr Juncker to the test. I do think he would want his commission
:06:23. > :06:27.to be marked and I think that there is, and I find this in numbers
:06:28. > :06:31.around Europe, and there is a growing recognition that things
:06:32. > :06:34.cannot go on as they have been. Europe, economically, is in danger
:06:35. > :06:39.of losing a lot of ground will stop millions of youngsters are out of
:06:40. > :06:42.work already that reform. There is real anxiety and a number of
:06:43. > :06:44.countries now about the extent to which opinion polls and election
:06:45. > :06:49.results are showing a shift of support to both left and right wing
:06:50. > :06:52.parties, sometimes outright neofascist movements, expressing
:06:53. > :07:00.real content and resentment at Howard in touch -- how out of touch
:07:01. > :07:03.decisions have become. You say you are sensing anxiety about the
:07:04. > :07:09.condition of Europe, so why did they choose Mr Juncker then? You would
:07:10. > :07:16.have to put that question to some of the heads of European government.
:07:17. > :07:19.Clearly there were a number for whom domestic politics played a big role
:07:20. > :07:27.in the eventual decision that they took. There were some who had signed
:07:28. > :07:31.up to the lead candidate process and felt they could not back away from
:07:32. > :07:35.that, whatever their private feelings might have been, but I
:07:36. > :07:38.think the PM was right to say that this was a matter of principle and
:07:39. > :07:44.it shouldn't just be left as a stitch up by the European Parliament
:07:45. > :07:48.to tell us what they do. He said, I can't agree to pretend to acquiesce.
:07:49. > :07:52.to tell us what they do. He said, I They have to make the opposition
:07:53. > :07:55.clear that go on with reform. Are the current terms of membership
:07:56. > :08:00.clear that go on with reform. Are us unacceptable? The current terms
:08:01. > :08:06.of the membership are very far from perfect. Are they unacceptable? The
:08:07. > :08:12.current terms perfect. Are they unacceptable? The
:08:13. > :08:16.that I feel comfortable with. The Prime Minister described them as
:08:17. > :08:20.unacceptable. Do you think they are? We look at the views of the British
:08:21. > :08:25.people at the moment. If you look at the polling at the moment, the
:08:26. > :08:28.evidence is that people are split on whether they think membership is a
:08:29. > :08:38.good thing. I'm asking what you think. David Cameron wants to in --
:08:39. > :08:40.endorse changes in our interest, but also
:08:41. > :08:44.endorse changes in our interest, but going to suffer if they don't
:08:45. > :08:49.challenge -- grasp the challenge of political and economic reform.
:08:50. > :08:54.Newsnight, Friday night, Malcolm Rifkind the former Secretary of
:08:55. > :08:56.State said to me that even if the choice was
:08:57. > :09:00.State said to me that even if the existing terms, he would vote to
:09:01. > :09:03.stay in on the existing terms. He doesn't necessarily like them, but
:09:04. > :09:06.he would vote to stay in. That is the authentic voice of the Foreign
:09:07. > :09:14.Office, isn't it? That is the position of your department. Is it
:09:15. > :09:16.your position? Malcolm Rifkind is a distinguished and independent minded
:09:17. > :09:21.backbencher. He's not in government now. But that is your position.
:09:22. > :09:23.backbencher. He's not in government the position of the government and
:09:24. > :09:27.the Conservative Party in the government is that we believe that
:09:28. > :09:34.important changes, both economic and political reforms, are
:09:35. > :09:40.important changes, both economic and whole. Would you vote to stay in on
:09:41. > :09:46.the existing terms? That's not going to be a question that the
:09:47. > :09:50.referendum. Really? I know that in 2017 Europe is going to look rather
:09:51. > :09:54.different to how it looks today. For one thing our colleagues in the
:09:55. > :09:57.Eurozone will want and need to press ahead with closer integration.
:09:58. > :10:01.That, in our view, needs to be done in a way that fully respects the
:10:02. > :10:05.rights of those of us who remain outside.
:10:06. > :10:08.rights of those of us who remain things like the abuse of freedom of
:10:09. > :10:12.migration. Those are all in the conclusions from the leader this
:10:13. > :10:16.week and we should welcome that. Very briefly, finally, when will
:10:17. > :10:19.you, as a government, give us the negotiating position of the
:10:20. > :10:23.government? Will you give us what you hope to achieve before the
:10:24. > :10:30.election or not? David Cameron set out very clearly in his Bloomberg
:10:31. > :10:35.speech that he wanted a Europe that was more democratically accountable,
:10:36. > :10:38.more flexible, more at it -- economically competitive. That is
:10:39. > :10:42.all very general. When will you lay out the negotiating position? It's
:10:43. > :10:47.not general. It is very far from general. We have seen evidence in
:10:48. > :10:53.the successful cut of the European budget, the reform of fisheries,
:10:54. > :10:57.those reforms have started to take effect. We have won some victories
:10:58. > :11:01.and I'm sure the Prime Minister, as we get towards the general election,
:11:02. > :11:03.will want to make clear what the Conservative Party position is, and
:11:04. > :11:11.perhaps other political leaders will do the same for their party. Thank
:11:12. > :11:15.you for joining us this morning. The harsh reality of this is that there
:11:16. > :11:19.is a yawning gap between what the Prime Minister can hope to bring
:11:20. > :11:24.back and what will satisfy his Conservative backbenchers. Yes, I
:11:25. > :11:28.think the Parliamentary Conservative Party is divided into three parts,
:11:29. > :11:31.those who would vote to leave the EU regardless, those who would stay
:11:32. > :11:35.regardless, and a huge middle ground of people who want to stay in on
:11:36. > :11:40.renegotiated terms. These are not three equal parts. Those who would
:11:41. > :11:43.vote to stay in regardless are smaller and smaller. Compared to 20
:11:44. > :11:48.years ago, tiny. But the people in the middle, generally, would only
:11:49. > :11:52.stay in if you secure a renegotiation that will not be
:11:53. > :11:59.re-secured. In other words, they are de facto, out by 2017 and the
:12:00. > :12:02.referendum. This whole saga of the recent weeks has been the single
:12:03. > :12:07.biggest economy in foreign policy under this government. That's not
:12:08. > :12:12.what the voters think. -- single biggest ignominy. I mean the failure
:12:13. > :12:16.to secure the target. The opinion polls show that standing up against
:12:17. > :12:20.Mr Juncker has proved rather popular. I suggest that is not Mr
:12:21. > :12:23.Cameron's problem. His problem is that, if in the end he gets only
:12:24. > :12:29.because Medic changes, and if he says he still thinks that with these
:12:30. > :12:32.changes -- cosmetic changes. And he says that they should stay in, that
:12:33. > :12:38.would split the Tory party wide open. Eurosceptics say would be the
:12:39. > :12:43.biggest split since the corn laws. He wants to protect the position of
:12:44. > :12:50.coming out, and you might get that. He wants to crack down on abuse of
:12:51. > :12:53.benefits, and he might get that. He wants to restrict freedom of
:12:54. > :12:56.movement for future member states, and that's difficult, because it is
:12:57. > :13:01.a treaty change. And he wants to deal with closer union, but that is
:13:02. > :13:04.also treaty change. In the Council conclusions, David Cameron was
:13:05. > :13:09.encouraged because it said, let's look at closer union, but it did not
:13:10. > :13:13.say it would reform. All it said was ever closer union can be interpreted
:13:14. > :13:16.in different ways. In other words, we're not going to change it. The
:13:17. > :13:27.fundamental problem the David Cameron was that two years ago, when
:13:28. > :13:30.he vetoed the fiscal compact, that showed Angela Merkel was unwilling
:13:31. > :13:32.to help them and what happened in the last two weeks was that Angela
:13:33. > :13:35.Merkel was unable to help him. There is not a single leader of the
:13:36. > :13:38.European Union that once Juncker as president, and he doesn't want it,
:13:39. > :13:42.he wants the note take a job at the European Council. But there was this
:13:43. > :13:46.basic stitch up by the European Parliament that meant he was
:13:47. > :13:49.presented, and when Angela Merkel put the question over his head there
:13:50. > :13:54.was a huge backlash in Germany and she was unable to deliver. I
:13:55. > :13:58.understand that, but I'm looking forward to Mr Cameron's predicament.
:13:59. > :14:04.I don't know how he squares the circle. It seems inconceivable that
:14:05. > :14:09.he can bring back enough from Brussels to satisfy his
:14:10. > :14:13.backbenchers. No, you can't. Most of them fundamentally want out. They
:14:14. > :14:16.don't want to be persuaded by renegotiations. Where it's hard to
:14:17. > :14:20.draw conclusions from the polling is that if you ask people question that
:14:21. > :14:23.sounds like, do you like the fact that our Prime Minister has gone to
:14:24. > :14:27.Brussels and stuck it to the man, they say yes, but how many people
:14:28. > :14:32.will go to the voting booths and put their cross in the box based on
:14:33. > :14:39.Europe? We know mostly voters care about Europe as a proxy for
:14:40. > :14:41.immigration fears. In ten people in this country could not tell you who
:14:42. > :14:43.John Claude Juncker is Angela Weir is replacing. -- and who he is
:14:44. > :14:46.replacing. And I'm joined in the studio now by
:14:47. > :14:49.arch-Eurosceptic Conservative MEP, Daniel Hannan and from Strasbourg by
:14:50. > :15:11.staunch European and former Liberal war? His declared objectives would
:15:12. > :15:14.leave Britain still in the common agricultural policy, the common
:15:15. > :15:22.foreign policy, the European arrest warrant, so the negotiating aims
:15:23. > :15:25.which we just heard Nick setting out wouldn't fundamentally change
:15:26. > :15:33.anything. It would be easy for the Government to declare war on any of
:15:34. > :15:38.these things. The danger from your point of view as someone who wants
:15:39. > :15:43.to stay in is that if David Cameron only gets cosmetic changes, the
:15:44. > :15:48.chance of getting the vote to leave the European Union increases,
:15:49. > :15:55.doesn't it? Hypothetically it probably does but we have two big
:15:56. > :16:01.things to get through first in domestic politics before we even
:16:02. > :16:06.reach a negotiation. One is are we going to have the United Kingdom
:16:07. > :16:12.this time next year following the referendum in Scotland? Secondly,
:16:13. > :16:16.are the Conservatives after the general election next year going to
:16:17. > :16:22.be in a position to pursue a negotiation? In other words are they
:16:23. > :16:26.going to be a majority government or even a minority government? For the
:16:27. > :16:31.sake of this morning let's assume the answer to both is yes, the UK
:16:32. > :16:37.stays intact and against the polls they were saying this morning, David
:16:38. > :16:41.Cameron forms an overall majority after the election. There is a
:16:42. > :16:48.danger, if he doesn't bring much back, that people will vote yes,
:16:49. > :16:53.correct? There is that danger and I see a lot of the British press
:16:54. > :16:58.comment this morning saying this could be a rerun of the Harold
:16:59. > :17:03.Wilson like negotiation of the 1970s, a bit cosmetic but enough to
:17:04. > :17:07.say we have got new terms and you should go with it. I think what is
:17:08. > :17:13.different however, and this is really an appeal if you like, it
:17:14. > :17:17.cannot just be left to the Liberal Democrats and coalition government
:17:18. > :17:23.to make this case on our Rome. A lot of interest groups across the land
:17:24. > :17:27.will have to start being prepared to put their head above the parapet on
:17:28. > :17:33.the fundamental - do you want Britain to remain in the European
:17:34. > :17:37.Union? Yes or no? Are you willing to put your public reputations on the
:17:38. > :17:41.line? We are not getting enough of that at the moment and it is getting
:17:42. > :17:53.dangerously close to closing time. Daniel Hannan, David Cameron will
:17:54. > :17:56.not get away with this, will he? It will be an acceptable to his party.
:17:57. > :18:01.If it is an acceptable will be an acceptable to his party.
:18:02. > :18:04.backbenchers it is because it is working and they are reflecting what
:18:05. > :18:06.their constituents say. A majority working and they are reflecting what
:18:07. > :18:07.of people in the country are unhappy working and they are reflecting what
:18:08. > :18:13.with the present terms. They can see working and they are reflecting what
:18:14. > :18:18.there is a huge wide world beyond the oceans and we have
:18:19. > :18:25.there is a huge wide world beyond There is
:18:26. > :18:30.better outside. It is not danger, it better outside. It is not danger, it
:18:31. > :18:33.is democracy, trusting people. If the only person offering a
:18:34. > :18:38.referendum at the moment is the Prime Minister, it has serious
:18:39. > :18:40.consequences for his party, your party, that's what I'm talking
:18:41. > :18:47.about. I am very party, that's what I'm talking
:18:48. > :18:49.of the party that is trusting people to offer this. If he only gets
:18:50. > :18:55.cosmetic changes he cannot to offer this. If he only gets
:18:56. > :18:59.party. But ultimately it will not be his party, it is the electorate
:19:00. > :19:02.party. But ultimately it will not be whole that has to decide whether the
:19:03. > :19:05.party. But ultimately it will not be changes are substantive. Everything
:19:06. > :19:09.we have been hearing just now is about staying out of future
:19:10. > :19:14.integration, protecting the role of the non-euro countries. People are
:19:15. > :19:19.upset about what is going on today with the EU. They can see laws being
:19:20. > :19:23.passed by people they cannot vote for, friendships overseas are
:19:24. > :19:28.prejudiced, and they conceive that the European Union has just put in
:19:29. > :19:33.charge in the top slot somebody who wants a United States of Europe into
:19:34. > :19:38.which we will eventually be dragged into as some kind of Providence.
:19:39. > :19:48.Jean-Claude Juncker is a Federalist, you are Federalist, why did the Lib
:19:49. > :19:53.Dems oppose him? We shared the view that whilst you take account of what
:19:54. > :19:56.the members of the European Parliament say, ultimately the
:19:57. > :20:01.choice of the presidency in the commission should be the political
:20:02. > :20:06.leaders, the governmental leaders at a national level, and that's why we
:20:07. > :20:10.went down the route we did. It was more to do with the system than the
:20:11. > :20:16.individual. Although I would say that you need to bear in mind, I
:20:17. > :20:20.mean Daniel, I respect him personally and the integrity of his
:20:21. > :20:28.views, as I think he does mine, but to dismiss the European Union as a
:20:29. > :20:32.small trading block globally, when you have got the United States of
:20:33. > :20:43.America, China and other countries acknowledging its importance, it is
:20:44. > :20:55.really Walter Mitty land. Are we closer than... Daniel Hannan, are we
:20:56. > :21:01.closer to an exit after what happened last week? Yes, because the
:21:02. > :21:10.idea that we could get substantive reforms, gets a mythic and powers
:21:11. > :21:18.back and be within a looser, more flexible European Union has plainly
:21:19. > :21:23.been closed off. We have to face up to the actual European Union that
:21:24. > :21:28.has taken shape on our doorstep. Are we going to be part of that or are
:21:29. > :21:32.we going to have a much more semidetached, looser relationship
:21:33. > :21:44.with it which we can either achieve via a unilateral system of power or
:21:45. > :21:49.another way. This debate is never-ending, it is going on and on
:21:50. > :21:53.and has bedevilled British prime ministers for as long as I can
:21:54. > :21:58.remember. Shouldn't the Lib Dems change their stance on the
:21:59. > :22:04.referendum yet again let's just have this in-out referendum and have it
:22:05. > :22:09.sided one way or another? Our position remains clear. If there is
:22:10. > :22:16.a constitutional issue put before us in terms of treaty changes then we
:22:17. > :22:26.will have a referendum. Why not now? I am probably the wrong person to
:22:27. > :22:31.ask because I argued and voted for a referendum on Maastricht because I
:22:32. > :22:35.thought that was a constitutional treaty. Anything that makes the
:22:36. > :22:42.Queen a citizen of the European Union surely has constitutional
:22:43. > :22:46.implications. Anyway, 20 years on we are where we are and we need to
:22:47. > :22:54.established common vocabulary. You talk about federalism. What do we
:22:55. > :22:57.mean? Most of the people operating in the European Parliament and the
:22:58. > :23:02.institution across the road, the Council of Europe, they mean by
:23:03. > :23:09.federalism decentralisation of powers, not a Brussels superstate
:23:10. > :23:13.but actually the kind of decentralisation that maintains
:23:14. > :23:22.national characteristics and pools resources and sovereignty where it
:23:23. > :23:25.makes sense. Mr Juncker, who is now going to be in charge of the
:23:26. > :23:37.Brussels commission, he believes in a single EU reform policy, an EU
:23:38. > :23:41.wide minimum wage and EU wide taxes. You said this week that you
:23:42. > :23:47.liked the sound of Juncker federalism. Does that sound good to
:23:48. > :23:51.you? No, and I think the new president of the commission will be
:23:52. > :23:57.disappointed if he puts forward these views because although we only
:23:58. > :24:02.had Hungary voting with us, I think if you go to other countries,
:24:03. > :24:08.France, Poland, Scandinavia, they are not going to buy that kind of
:24:09. > :24:14.menu. What they mean by federalism is the continental concept, also the
:24:15. > :24:22.North American concept, that we can sit very happily... They have an
:24:23. > :24:31.army, a federal police force, federal taxation. Yes, but in terms
:24:32. > :24:36.of the political institutions which is what we are discussing here, you
:24:37. > :24:40.can have the supranational, the European level, whilst still having
:24:41. > :24:45.the very vibrant national, and indeed as we are practising in the
:24:46. > :24:51.United Kingdom the subnational. A very brief final word from you,
:24:52. > :24:57.Daniel. That is ultimately going to be the choice. The European Union is
:24:58. > :25:01.an evolving dynamic, we can see the direction it is going in. Do we want
:25:02. > :25:06.to be part of that? I suspect Charles Kennedy would have loved a
:25:07. > :25:22.referendum. I cannot help but notice his party is going downhill since he
:25:23. > :25:26.was running it. It is illegal to light up in the workplace, pubs and
:25:27. > :25:30.restaurants. Now the British Medical Association has voted to outlaw
:25:31. > :25:35.everywhere but not everybody at once. It would apply to anyone born
:25:36. > :25:40.after the year 2000. In a moment we will debate the merits of those
:25:41. > :25:46.plans but first he is Adam. There was a time when to be British
:25:47. > :25:51.was to be a smoker. 1948 was the year off peak fag with 82% of men
:25:52. > :25:56.smoking mainly cigarettes but it was a pipe that Harold Wilson used as a
:25:57. > :26:00.political prop to help with the hard-hitting interviews they did in
:26:01. > :26:11.those days. The advertisements make out pipe smokers to be more virile,
:26:12. > :26:16.more fascinating men than anybody else. Do you thought -- have that
:26:17. > :26:27.thought anywhere in your mind? No. It changed in 2006 when smoking in
:26:28. > :26:30.enclosed places was banned. I would rather be inside but unfortunately
:26:31. > :26:33.we have got to do what this Government tells us to do. I think
:26:34. > :26:40.it is good, it is calm and you can Government tells us to do. I think
:26:41. > :26:44.breathe. Research suggests it has improved the health of bar workers
:26:45. > :26:51.no end and reduced childhood asthma. Now just one in five adults is a
:26:52. > :26:55.smoker. Coming next, crackdowns on those newfangled e-cigarettes,
:26:56. > :27:00.smoking in cars and possibly the introduction of plain packaging.
:27:01. > :27:04.There is still those who take pride in smoking and see it as a war on
:27:05. > :27:19.freedom. We're joined now by
:27:20. > :27:22.Dr Vivienne Nathanson from the British Medical Association
:27:23. > :27:27.who voted for a graduated ban on smoking at their conference last
:27:28. > :27:32.week, and Simon Clark They're here to go head-to-head.
:27:33. > :27:40.There are plenty of things which are bad for our health, why single out
:27:41. > :27:48.cigarettes? We need some sugar in our diets but the fact is that we
:27:49. > :27:53.need to stop people smoking as children because if we can do that,
:27:54. > :27:57.the likelihood that they will start smoking is very small. In no
:27:58. > :28:02.circumstances is smoking good for you. There are lots of smokers who
:28:03. > :28:07.live long, healthy lives but we totally accept smoking is a risk to
:28:08. > :28:12.your health and adults have to make that decision, just as you make the
:28:13. > :28:17.decision about drinking alcohol, eating fatty foods and drinking
:28:18. > :28:20.sugary drinks. This proposal is totally impractical. It will create
:28:21. > :28:25.a huge black market in cigarettes which will get bigger every year.
:28:26. > :28:30.They say this is about stopping children smoking but there is
:28:31. > :28:35.already a law in place that stops shopkeepers from selling cigarettes
:28:36. > :28:41.to children. This target adults so you could have the bizarre situation
:28:42. > :28:46.in the year 3035 for example where a 36-year-old can go into shops to buy
:28:47. > :28:51.cigarettes but if you are 35 you will be denied that, which is
:28:52. > :28:54.ludicrous. The point is that the younger you start smoking the more
:28:55. > :29:00.likely you will become heavily addicted. I take the point, but the
:29:01. > :29:06.point he is saying is that if this becomes law, down the road, if you
:29:07. > :29:10.go into shops to buy cigarettes you would have to take your birth
:29:11. > :29:14.certificate, wouldn't you? We have no idea how the legislation would be
:29:15. > :29:19.written but the key point is that if we can stop young people from
:29:20. > :29:24.starting to smoke, we will in 20 years have a whole group of people
:29:25. > :29:28.who have never smoked so you won't have that problem of people who are
:29:29. > :29:32.smokers and they are now in their 20s and 30s. Or you will have a lot
:29:33. > :29:37.of younger people who get cigarettes the way they currently get illegal
:29:38. > :29:42.drugs now. They are already getting cigarettes illegally and we have to
:29:43. > :29:49.deal with that. We have got to get better. The Government has not been
:29:50. > :29:57.able to stop it. We know this is going to kill 50%... When you are 15
:29:58. > :30:01.you think you will live for ever. Indeed but they also do it as
:30:02. > :30:06.rebellion and because they see adults and it is remarkably easy to
:30:07. > :30:10.buy cigarettes. Whatever the case is for individual choice, won't most
:30:11. > :30:15.people agree that if you could stop young people smoking, so that
:30:16. > :30:25.through the rest of their lives they never smoked, that would be worth
:30:26. > :30:29.doing? You get 16 or 17-year-olds who already do that. Is it worth
:30:30. > :30:34.trying? When the government increased the age at which
:30:35. > :30:40.shopkeepers could sell from 16 to 18, we supported it. We don't
:30:41. > :30:43.support a ban on proxy purchasing, we support reasonable measures, but
:30:44. > :30:49.this is unreasonable. This proposal says a lot about the BMA, because
:30:50. > :30:53.this week the BMA also passed a motion to ban the use of E
:30:54. > :30:56.cigarettes in public places. There is no evidence that they are
:30:57. > :31:01.dangerous to health, so why are they doing that? They are becoming a
:31:02. > :31:03.temperance society. This is not about public health, it's an
:31:04. > :31:06.old-fashioned temperance society and they have to get their act together
:31:07. > :31:12.because they are bringing the medical profession into disrepute.
:31:13. > :31:16.We were having argument is about things that people buy large accept,
:31:17. > :31:20.smoking in bars or public places, but the real aim of the BMA was the
:31:21. > :31:26.total banning of cigarettes altogether. This would suggest that
:31:27. > :31:29.that was true to claim that. It's not about a ban, it's about a move
:31:30. > :31:35.to a country where nobody wants to smoke and no one is a smoker. But it
:31:36. > :31:39.would be illegal to smoke. It would be illegal to buy, not smoke, and
:31:40. > :31:45.there's a difference between two. So even if I am born in the year 2000,
:31:46. > :31:51.it would still be illegal to smoke, just illegal to buy the cigarettes?
:31:52. > :31:54.Indeed. The point being that the habit of smoking is very strongly
:31:55. > :31:58.linked to your ability to buy, so that is why things like Price and
:31:59. > :32:04.availability and marketing are so important. People will flood across
:32:05. > :32:07.the Channel with the cigarettes. One thing you will find is that
:32:08. > :32:10.throughout the world people is looking at -- people are looking at
:32:11. > :32:15.the same kind of measures, and different countries like Australia,
:32:16. > :32:17.they were the first with a standardised packaging. Other
:32:18. > :32:21.countries will follow, because all of us are facing the fact that we
:32:22. > :32:27.can't afford to pay for the tragedy. There will be people
:32:28. > :32:32.waiting to flood the market with cigarettes. This is nonsense. Thanks
:32:33. > :32:34.for both coming and going head-to-head.
:32:35. > :32:38."Unless we have more equal representation, our politics won't
:32:39. > :32:41.be half as good as it should be." So said David Cameron back in 2009.
:32:42. > :32:43.So how's it going? Well, you can judge the quality
:32:44. > :32:46.of the politics for yourself, but we've been crunching
:32:47. > :32:48.the numbers to find out what parliament might look like after
:32:49. > :32:53.the next year's general election. Here's Giles.
:32:54. > :32:57.Politicians are elected to Parliament to represent their
:32:58. > :33:03.constituents, but the make-up of Parliament does not reflect society
:33:04. > :33:05.well at all the parties it. In 2010 more women and ethnic minority
:33:06. > :33:15.candidates entered Westminster but not significantly more inner chamber
:33:16. > :33:20.still dominated by white males. Looking at the current make-up of
:33:21. > :33:25.the Commons, Labour has 83 female MPs, the Conservative have 47 women
:33:26. > :33:31.MPs, which is just over 47% -- and the Lib Dems have 12% of the
:33:32. > :33:34.parties. All of the parties have selected parliaments in those seats
:33:35. > :33:37.where existing MPs are retiring and to fight seats at the next
:33:38. > :33:41.election, and they've all been trying to up the number of women and
:33:42. > :33:46.ethnic minorities because discounts and can be capitalised on. A picture
:33:47. > :33:51.tells a thousand words. Look at the all-male front bench before us. And
:33:52. > :33:56.he says he wants to represent the whole country. Despite the jibe, the
:33:57. > :33:57.Labour Party know they have a long way to go on the issue of being
:33:58. > :34:09.representative. So we way to go on the issue of being
:34:10. > :34:10.look at this particular area of lack of women and ethnic minorities.
:34:11. > :34:42.In the most marginal, 40 have women candidates, that would mean if they
:34:43. > :34:48.got just enough to win power, they would have 133 women, which is 41%
:34:49. > :34:50.The Conservatives currently have 305 MPs and their strategy
:34:51. > :34:53.at the next election is to concentrate on their 40 most
:34:54. > :34:56.marginal seats, and the 40 seats most mathematically likely to turn
:34:57. > :34:59.In those 40, 29 candidates have been selected
:35:00. > :35:04.If they kept hold of their existing seats and won those 29 new ones,
:35:05. > :35:08.they would have 56 women MPs, around 17%, and up 2% from last time.
:35:09. > :35:11.The Liberal Democrats are fighting to hold on to the 57 seats they won
:35:12. > :35:14.at the last election, if they manage that, they would have
:35:15. > :35:19.However all the indications are it could be
:35:20. > :35:23.a bad night for the Lib Dems, if they lost 20 seats, on a uniform
:35:24. > :35:28.swing it would leave them with just four women, 11% of the party.
:35:29. > :35:32.One Conservative peer who thinks the party needs to look at all
:35:33. > :35:35.options if it's female numbers go down in 2015, says Parliament is
:35:36. > :35:50.The bottom line is, if 50% of our population is not being looked at
:35:51. > :35:57.evenly, are we really using the best of our talent? And yes, women's life
:35:58. > :36:01.experiences are different. They are not superior, they are not inferior.
:36:02. > :36:02.They are different. But surely those life experiences need to be
:36:03. > :36:07.represented here at Westminster. So that's the Parliamentary
:36:08. > :36:08.projection for gender, According to the last census
:36:09. > :36:14.in 2011, 13% of people in the UK Labour currently has 16 MPs from
:36:15. > :36:19.black, Asian or minority ethnic backgrounds or just over 6%, if they
:36:20. > :36:23.get their extra 68 seats that figure would go up to 26, 8% of their party
:36:24. > :36:27.were from BAME backgrounds. The Tories currently have 11 BAME
:36:28. > :36:34.candidates, or 4% of the party. If they get an extra 29 seats,
:36:35. > :36:37.that would mean 14 BAME MPs, The Liberal Democrats
:36:38. > :36:46.don't have any BAME MPs. If they manage to cling
:36:47. > :36:51.on to their current number of seats they would have two,
:36:52. > :36:54.giving them a proportion of 4%. If they lost
:36:55. > :36:59.their 20 most vulnerable seats, But even if you changed the mix
:37:00. > :37:08.of gender and ethnicity Only 10% of us have gone to
:37:09. > :37:12.a private fee paid school. A Quarter of all Mps went to Oxford
:37:13. > :37:21.or Cambridge. Only a fifth
:37:22. > :37:28.of us went to any university. There is a huge disillusionment with
:37:29. > :37:32.the political elite due to the fact that these people don't look like
:37:33. > :37:35.us. They don't speak like us, they don't have our experiences and they
:37:36. > :37:40.cannot communicate in a way we relate to. If you look at the
:37:41. > :37:43.turnout, at the moment, if you are an unskilled worker, you are 20
:37:44. > :37:46.points less likely to turn and vote than a middle-class professional and
:37:47. > :37:49.that is getting worse with single election.
:37:50. > :37:51.And that's the key, evidence does suggest that if a
:37:52. > :37:54.Party reflects the society it exists within, it is more likely to get
:37:55. > :38:03.It's just gone 11.35pm, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:04. > :38:06.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:07. > :38:18.Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll have more from the panel.
:38:19. > :38:20.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:38:21. > :38:23.With a new series of talks on contentious issues this week,
:38:24. > :38:26.what chance is there of meaningful progress when there
:38:27. > :38:35.And can the politicians do it without outside help?
:38:36. > :38:42.I do believe it is now time to appoint a person who will head up
:38:43. > :38:42.its contribution to the peace process.
:38:43. > :38:44.We hear from three of the parties that'll be there.
:38:45. > :38:47.And with their thoughts, I'm joined today by Professor
:38:48. > :38:55.It's been yet another remarkable week in politics here with
:38:56. > :38:59.a visit from the Queen that saw her tour the Crumlin Road Gaol in the
:39:00. > :39:08.presence of two former inmates - our first and deputy First Ministers.
:39:09. > :39:17.Let us talk about the visit from the Queen. When he was surprised to see
:39:18. > :39:20.the Queen there being shown around by those two individuals with their
:39:21. > :39:24.personal connections to the place? It was a very carefully
:39:25. > :39:30.choreographed visit and everything was on a positive note, it's showing
:39:31. > :39:34.Northern Ireland in a positive note. Gamer flumes, the Titanic, it was
:39:35. > :39:38.trying to sell Northern Ireland plc. Of course it was ironic that she was
:39:39. > :39:43.being shown around by two former inmates, you couldn't make it of!
:39:44. > :39:49.But the jail is a success story and a huge tourist attraction. So I
:39:50. > :39:53.think it was all about being -- showing the positive side of
:39:54. > :39:56.Northern Ireland and investment, foreign investment, economic
:39:57. > :40:00.investments. I think it worked very well. The fact that we knew where
:40:01. > :40:07.she was going to be was a sea change in terms of a Queen's visits. People
:40:08. > :40:12.could come along and participate. There was a real sense of joy and
:40:13. > :40:17.elation that she had chosen to come. People came out in their hundreds to
:40:18. > :40:24.see her. It is completely different, a sign of optimism and
:40:25. > :40:28.confidence. What about the content and the optics of the visit? She
:40:29. > :40:33.made a short speech at Belfast City Hall. What struck you? The overall
:40:34. > :40:38.tone was quite positive and consulates rev. Even the
:40:39. > :40:42.choreography was a reminder for what of the kind of tension that are in
:40:43. > :40:47.place at the moment. She was almost making the move for unionism in a
:40:48. > :40:52.sense, taking steps that we are not seeing Unionism make at this point.
:40:53. > :40:56.I think at the City Hall, given the fractious nature of the relationship
:40:57. > :41:02.as a result of the flight, it has been very, I suppose, important to
:41:03. > :41:08.see her there. Briefly Deirdre, but the Queen have said more? It is
:41:09. > :41:13.interesting that the number of commentators said if only she had
:41:14. > :41:17.been more explicit. I don't think it is the role of the Queen to be
:41:18. > :41:21.explicit in terms of operational policy in Northern Ireland. She is
:41:22. > :41:25.above that. Can you really see her saying I would like you to take down
:41:26. > :41:29.the flags? The bottom line is the Queen will be saying she supports
:41:30. > :41:34.the peace process she also said we have made the impossible possible.
:41:35. > :41:37.She has shown her support. I don't think it would be appropriate for
:41:38. > :41:44.her to say we should take the flags down from the lamp post. Dishing as
:41:45. > :41:47.far as she could go? It is not the role of the monitor, over and said
:41:48. > :41:51.those sorts of things. We should be leading from the ground as opposed
:41:52. > :41:56.to expect in the Queen to do it for us. We both speak more to you later.
:41:57. > :41:58.The White House has always kept a close eye on the political
:41:59. > :42:01.process here and done its bit to push the process forward.
:42:02. > :42:04.So it was timely then that a senior US diplomat was at Stormont
:42:05. > :42:07.on Friday to meet the party leaders and community representatives just
:42:08. > :42:09.days before a round of intensive talks between the parties begin.
:42:10. > :42:12.Our Political Editor, Mark Devenport, spoke to the Assistant
:42:13. > :42:24.It is good news they have agreed to continue the talks in July. That was
:42:25. > :42:30.not an easy decision for all of them to make. They do have decisions to
:42:31. > :42:35.make together, both in terms of the summer season, but also in terms of
:42:36. > :42:39.how they take the work forward, how they take the agenda forward and
:42:40. > :42:42.what process they want to use. Do they see themselves doing it in
:42:43. > :42:47.sequence, what kind of help do they need from their partners, from
:42:48. > :42:51.London, from Dublin, from Washington? How can we be
:42:52. > :42:59.supportive? One thing I would say, having listened to everybody, was to
:43:00. > :43:04.listen -- its really is a moment for leadership. It is a moment for
:43:05. > :43:07.leadership on all sides and from all politicians. Having spoke to some of
:43:08. > :43:11.the civil society leaders this morning, I think it is what the
:43:12. > :43:17.people of Northern Ireland are expecting from all of our
:43:18. > :43:27.politicians and is difficult moment. Do you believe this is the basis for
:43:28. > :43:30.moving forward? I think I think this is that the bomb Northern Ireland
:43:31. > :43:34.and the elected leaders to decide. We do believe the process is helpful
:43:35. > :43:41.in clarifying the issues in creating structure that the partys' can take
:43:42. > :43:46.forward and the people of Northern Ireland can take forward. That some
:43:47. > :43:51.of the ideas that emerged there can be built on. This is the work that
:43:52. > :43:55.people of Northern Ireland and the officials need to take forward. We
:43:56. > :44:00.will support any process and any structure that can gain traction and
:44:01. > :44:04.can bring people together and take Northern Ireland forward.
:44:05. > :44:07.There's been a lot of confusion in recent days about the format
:44:08. > :44:09.for the talks and what precisely will be the agenda.
:44:10. > :44:12.The Deputy First Minister says Sinn Fein is committed to finding
:44:13. > :44:14.a successful outcome and he's called for more support
:44:15. > :44:24.We are taking this very seriously indeed. We want to approach this in
:44:25. > :44:28.a positive and constructive frame of mind. I do believe we should work
:44:29. > :44:35.right through July and August to try and find a way forward. I will have
:44:36. > :44:39.a team in position to do just that. Officially, after the party is here
:44:40. > :44:43.alone, we will find a way forward. The danger is that a way forward may
:44:44. > :44:51.not be found. So, you know, essentially, I believe, and I said
:44:52. > :44:55.this to Victoria in the course of our conversation today, but I do
:44:56. > :44:59.believe it is now time for that ministration to appoint a person who
:45:00. > :45:01.will head up its contribution to this peace process.
:45:02. > :45:03.Joining me now to look ahead to these latest discussions are
:45:04. > :45:05.Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly, Stephen Farry from the Alliance
:45:06. > :45:16.Party, and, in our Foyle Studio, Gregory Campbell of the DUP.
:45:17. > :45:24.Jerry, what hope steel have that these talks will be meaningful? I
:45:25. > :45:29.think we have been having these for a considerable amount of time. It is
:45:30. > :45:34.quite a long time, it is nearly six months, we should follow these talks
:45:35. > :45:43.before now. But we haven't. I think there is an opportunity there, on
:45:44. > :45:49.the talk of July, we have to be not negative about these things. So I
:45:50. > :45:54.think all the issues are known, we need to address -- address these
:45:55. > :45:59.things together because everybody is expecting us to do that. Gregory
:46:00. > :46:03.Campbell, is the DPA going into these talks with a genuine desire
:46:04. > :46:07.and determination to make real progress? yes, progress needs to be
:46:08. > :46:12.made. We have been trying to make progress in recent years and recent
:46:13. > :46:21.months. But we have to be realistic when they are trying to do that, the
:46:22. > :46:24.importers, for example is that we realise we are in the mouth of the
:46:25. > :46:33.breeding season. When you have the likes of Portadown those areas are
:46:34. > :46:38.places where small numbers of unrepresented groups in those
:46:39. > :46:43.communities are whipping up tensions. Unnecessarily so. Issues
:46:44. > :46:47.that should be low-key, that should be non-contentious, with small
:46:48. > :46:50.groups of people trying to make them contentious. Instead Sinn Fein
:46:51. > :46:54.opposing that and exposing those who are doing that, they seem to be
:46:55. > :46:59.onside with the protest is. So the Porton is not good. Whatever the
:47:00. > :47:03.difficulties, we must and shall try and make progress. If you speak to
:47:04. > :47:08.nationalists in Portadown they would say that there you have got orange
:47:09. > :47:13.men who are necessarily, to use at your word, asking for new parades
:47:14. > :47:18.which are clearly going to be controversial? Well they weren't
:47:19. > :47:25.controversial. They went controversial until some Republicans
:47:26. > :47:32.in the area decided to feed what was supposedly new information in, when
:47:33. > :47:46.it wasn't. The parades commission was then exposed for being a good
:47:47. > :47:50.organisation. It is redundant. So, it is quite clearly not fit for
:47:51. > :47:54.purpose. All of those were things we already knew, so let's get down to
:47:55. > :47:59.the hard graft of trying to make progress, however long or short it
:48:00. > :48:02.takes, we must do that. In the context of what we have just heard
:48:03. > :48:05.on this programme on what we have witnessed on other programmes in the
:48:06. > :48:13.last four or five days, how optimistic are you Stephen Farry?
:48:14. > :48:17.People are rightly cynical about the prospects of progress in the short
:48:18. > :48:21.run. Alterman, it is inescapable, we have tapped an agreement about how
:48:22. > :48:24.we deal with parades and the past in Northern Ireland. Also flags. There
:48:25. > :48:31.is a wider problem of what is still a deeply divided society. In terms
:48:32. > :48:34.of the immediacy mark, there are difficulties at present. We need
:48:35. > :48:38.leadership on both sides to back away from confrontation. We are
:48:39. > :48:47.seeing that you are saying words and attempts to wind -- wind the
:48:48. > :48:52.situation up. In the absence of anything on the ground, they are the
:48:53. > :48:58.only show in town. Politicians will stand up for the rule of law.
:48:59. > :49:01.Everybody says we need progress, the parties agree then eased to be
:49:02. > :49:07.progress. What they don't agree on is how that ought to happen. These
:49:08. > :49:09.talks are taking place at a difficult time in the immediate
:49:10. > :49:15.run-up to the marching season. You said we need an agreement on the
:49:16. > :49:20.past, but is it even on the agenda? Unionists said a lot of talk about
:49:21. > :49:24.it is all after the Hallett reports. we can't discuss about at this
:49:25. > :49:29.stage, the talks should address all three issues. There is no realistic
:49:30. > :49:35.prospect of an outcome unless we look at them all in turn. The issue
:49:36. > :49:40.is inescapable that we have tapped agreement on all three. All issues
:49:41. > :49:45.are linked fundamentally. Has the agenda been agreed Gerry Kelly, is
:49:46. > :49:53.the past part of the discussions? Will be issued before urged? We are
:49:54. > :50:01.prepared to talk throughout the summer. My understanding is that we
:50:02. > :50:07.will deal with all three issues. When I said deal with them, we will
:50:08. > :50:10.certainly discuss them. Coming to a conclusion is the big question, but,
:50:11. > :50:14.yes, we will deal with all three issues. There is no point in doing
:50:15. > :50:19.it unless we deal with all three issues. In the past on the agenda
:50:20. > :50:26.Gregory for next Wednesday? Are you trying to be back until after the
:50:27. > :50:34.17th of July? we must know what Lady Justice Hallett says because the UTI
:50:35. > :50:38.issue was, as everybody knows, it was a bolt from the blue, it was one
:50:39. > :50:42.of those issues that comes up now and then which reveals what
:50:43. > :50:47.particularly Republicans were doing behind the backs of people and no
:50:48. > :50:50.one knows about it, then suddenly there is an announcement, then
:50:51. > :50:54.people say others should have known about it. Let us get that issue
:50:55. > :50:58.cleared before we start to talk about what we do about the past,
:50:59. > :51:13.because we need to have people except in their role in the past.
:51:14. > :51:18.Gregory Campbell is representing them. They have made it clear they
:51:19. > :51:23.want to know what Lady Hallett comes out with in the report that is due
:51:24. > :51:26.in the next few weeks. The Gregory is saying that they are not then to
:51:27. > :51:33.talk about it, but that is not our understanding at all. Let us not get
:51:34. > :51:39.caught dancing on the head of a pin. It is interesting that there are
:51:40. > :51:43.different nuances shall we say between the parties already. Is the
:51:44. > :51:47.DUP committed to talking all summer if that's what it takes? You heard
:51:48. > :51:51.Martin McGuinness saying he is available in July and August. Gerry
:51:52. > :51:56.Kelly has just underscore that. What a job party's position? he said he
:51:57. > :52:02.had a team ready but is not the same thing as him saying he is ready to
:52:03. > :52:10.talk about it. We are prepared... Are you ready? yes. We have been
:52:11. > :52:13.ready to talk for a long time. The problem always in Northern Ireland
:52:14. > :52:18.has always been the ground on which talks will be held. That has been a
:52:19. > :52:23.problem. We are cleared the decks on those issues so let us not get tied
:52:24. > :52:26.up and mired in that. The decks are clear let us see if we commit
:52:27. > :52:34.progress because progress needs to made. Stephen Farry, do we need
:52:35. > :52:39.outside help? These talks will be chaired by a senior civil servant,
:52:40. > :52:46.but, we heard Martin McGuinness saying that the Americans can help
:52:47. > :52:49.us? This has to be an issue cracked by the local parties. We must have
:52:50. > :52:57.ownership of the process and ownership of the outcome. Ultimately
:52:58. > :53:03.though, we need input from the two governments, particularly around the
:53:04. > :53:06.past. Obviously the US has been a constant friend and ally in the
:53:07. > :53:10.peace process over the last two decades, and their
:53:11. > :53:11.peace process over the last two terms of encouraging people is
:53:12. > :53:19.critical. terms of encouraging people is
:53:20. > :53:21.discussions to take on terms of encouraging people is
:53:22. > :53:30.Gerry Kelly? Do you know who will be in the hot seat? The issues are
:53:31. > :53:33.fairly small, but I do agree with Stephen and of course, Mark has
:53:34. > :53:35.already said that we have had very positive input from different
:53:36. > :53:45.Americans. It is up to us in the positive input from different
:53:46. > :54:04.to come to a conclusion, but there is the ability for outsiders, those
:54:05. > :54:10.who have no axe to grind, to help. Is it your understanding that the
:54:11. > :54:15.talks will form the basis of why you picked the discussion up from order
:54:16. > :54:19.you start with a blank sheet? From our point of view there is already a
:54:20. > :54:24.bit of work -- a lot of work that has already been done. They may said
:54:25. > :54:28.it wanted up an agenda in some parties, but everybody knows
:54:29. > :54:36.it wanted up an agenda in some are three key issues. These are the
:54:37. > :54:39.three toxic areas that we must deal with and if we don't deal with them
:54:40. > :54:47.soon, they will impact more and more. Is this a busted flush or does
:54:48. > :54:51.it provide a useful template to begin discussions on Wednesday?
:54:52. > :54:56.There was no point in going over old ground. What I do think, and I think
:54:57. > :55:00.most people across the divide do, is that what needs to happen is that
:55:01. > :55:03.consensus, agreement has to be reached, individually, winning
:55:04. > :55:08.groups of people in Northern Ireland. That is the important
:55:09. > :55:15.thing. Whoever they come in from outside, whatever limited help they
:55:16. > :55:18.may offer, they do not bring to bear the very substance of what the
:55:19. > :55:23.problem is. The problem is division in Northern Ireland. I think
:55:24. > :55:28.everybody agrees that is what the problem is. The difficulty is how
:55:29. > :55:33.you move things forward. All Unionists, is the DUP prepared to
:55:34. > :55:37.comprise to reach agreement? we have always been prepared to try and
:55:38. > :55:43.reach a consensus. Reaching consensus means give and take. It
:55:44. > :55:48.cannot always begin on the part of Unionists -- give on the part of
:55:49. > :55:53.Unionists. Nationalists say that is never the case. Look at the
:55:54. > :55:58.restrictions on parades and when people don't use flags or banners,
:55:59. > :56:02.they still have objections levelled at them. Are you saying there should
:56:03. > :56:06.be no restrictions on parades? no, there should be a pragmatic
:56:07. > :56:09.approach. If people do not give offence non-should be taken. People
:56:10. > :56:14.should not be bussed in to take offence. Some people have come all
:56:15. > :56:21.the way from Spain to take offence at a parade. Sinn Fein do not stand
:56:22. > :56:25.up and oppose that. That creates a problem. The bottom line today
:56:26. > :56:31.Gregory Campbell is that you up for compromise, is that right? We are up
:56:32. > :56:35.for reaching a consensus. A consensus means a two-way street on
:56:36. > :56:42.give-and-take. Will you made that Gerry Kelly, halfway? Yes. We have
:56:43. > :56:51.compromised on many things. We have showed leadership. But, when Gregory
:56:52. > :56:57.says that, it is a fact that a lot have -- parades have increased year
:56:58. > :57:04.on year. That is disputed. It is not. I don't know where the dispute
:57:05. > :57:11.has come from. They have disputed it. It has increased year on year.
:57:12. > :57:18.That is a fax. Gregory denies all sorts of things. He's talking about
:57:19. > :57:24.people being bossed -- bussed in. Final word from you Stephen, is it
:57:25. > :57:31.hard to be an optimist in the circumstances? There can't be a
:57:32. > :57:52.win-win for everybody in terms of finding a agreed wage forward. Thank
:57:53. > :57:56.you gentlemen. I think the timing is bad. Given the heated mess around
:57:57. > :58:02.the D-Day marching issues and the parades, things have come back
:58:03. > :58:05.again. It is problematic. Even the language the politicians use is very
:58:06. > :58:12.conservative in terms of its cautious nurse. I will be cautiously
:58:13. > :58:15.optimistic. I think have laid the foundation and say you could go
:58:16. > :58:19.where I wipe the slate clean is ridiculous because it does happen,
:58:20. > :58:24.the discussions are in place. So I think they will go to the bare bones
:58:25. > :58:32.of it now. Deirdre, cautiously optimistic? Would you agree? Yes we
:58:33. > :58:40.must welcome the talks. You may say too little too late at the last
:58:41. > :58:43.July, I don't think we can set aside this. There is a window of
:58:44. > :58:47.opportunity that is diminishing by the day. What we need is people who
:58:48. > :58:50.are willing to sit down, talks of each other, listen, but also, to
:58:51. > :58:54.hear. Thank you. Let's pause for a moment for
:58:55. > :59:06.a look back at the political week The education minister revealed a
:59:07. > :59:12.hold-up saying that he did not have enough money for planned teacher
:59:13. > :59:16.redundancies. The charity blamed the executive for losing money for youth
:59:17. > :59:24.projects. Please sort this out because we need you. The parades
:59:25. > :59:36.commission restricted an Orange parade. a short parade to dedicate
:59:37. > :59:39.to an individual who died of cancer. The police ombudsman said the RUC
:59:40. > :59:49.could prevent the member of one of its officers 37 years ago. The
:59:50. > :59:52.police service in Northern Ireland should no longer be accountable for
:59:53. > :59:58.dealing with issues that predate the Good Friday Agreement. Martin
:59:59. > :00:02.McGuinness got familiar with the Queen.
:00:03. > :00:05.A final thought from Deirdre Heenan and Orna Young.
:00:06. > :00:19.Do you think you will shed any tears over the weekend? Absolutely not. He
:00:20. > :00:23.thought he was coming to a brave new world and suddenly realise we had
:00:24. > :00:26.not moved on in the way he thought. His community policing model did not
:00:27. > :00:28.work and when he leaves he will be shaking the dust of his sandals are
:00:29. > :00:33.not looking back. The big issue though will be how the new Chief
:00:34. > :00:38.Constable, George Hamilton, deals with the loyalists. I think civil
:00:39. > :00:45.society have got to assist him in his new, particularly challenging
:00:46. > :00:50.role. How does George Hamilton demonstrate he is in charge? I think
:00:51. > :00:54.on the back of the flag protests in which he was seen as toothless,
:00:55. > :00:55.on the back of the flag protests in is important it comes in hard in
:00:56. > :00:59.on the back of the flag protests in terms of that policing model, in
:01:00. > :01:00.terms of putting that on the ground and ensuring the rule of law is
:01:01. > :01:15.adhered to. Now back to Andrew in London.
:01:16. > :01:16.but I take your point. Thanks to both of you today. Back to you,
:01:17. > :01:22.Andrew. Now, there have been some
:01:23. > :01:23.less-than-helpful remarks about the way the Labour party makes
:01:24. > :01:26.policy, and they've come from the man who is heading Labour's
:01:27. > :01:31.Policy Review, Jon Cruddas. In a speech to party activists he
:01:32. > :01:35.was recorded saying that, "instrumentalised, cynical nuggets
:01:36. > :01:37.of policy to chime with our focus groups and our press strategies, and
:01:38. > :01:41.our desire for a topline in terms of the 24 hour media cycle,
:01:42. > :01:43.dominate and crowd out any He added that Labour's election
:01:44. > :01:54.strategy was being hampered by a The shadow chancellor, Ed Balls,
:01:55. > :02:15.was asked about what Mr Cruddas had I talked to him a couple of days
:02:16. > :02:20.ago, and he's not frustrated, he is excited about his policy agenda. He
:02:21. > :02:26.is frustrated that one report of 250 pages gets reduced down. So it's our
:02:27. > :02:31.fault? That is the way we live in the world in which we live, but we
:02:32. > :02:35.have big ideas about devolution, long term infrastructure spending
:02:36. > :02:38.and new manufacturing policy, new investment in skills, big changes
:02:39. > :02:47.which, let's be honest, I'm really on George Osborne's agenda. How
:02:48. > :02:51.serious is this? It is Wimbledon, so let's call it an unforced error. You
:02:52. > :02:55.go to the party speeches, and you don't know who is in the audience.
:02:56. > :02:58.There is no need for something as serious as this to happen. It's
:02:59. > :03:01.hugely serious because it speaks about something people have felt for
:03:02. > :03:05.a long time, that they have doled out little nuggets of policy but no
:03:06. > :03:10.overarching story. There was a quite saying the Ed Miliband has given as
:03:11. > :03:13.a shopping list, not a narrative. When people in the party say things
:03:14. > :03:18.that are true, it's very difficult for people to explain it away. Not
:03:19. > :03:21.sure Mr Miliband can win here. He was recently criticised for not
:03:22. > :03:26.having policies. Now he's being criticised for having too many. I
:03:27. > :03:29.think this line of attack is particularly wounding because he
:03:30. > :03:35.prides himself on being a politician of ideas. That is his unique selling
:03:36. > :03:39.point, and the weight that David Cameron's prime ministerial nature
:03:40. > :03:43.is his selling point. So it is wounding. If I was the Labour Party,
:03:44. > :03:48.before announcing any policy, I would ask can help fix us on the
:03:49. > :03:54.economy? It might be radicalised immolating on its own terms, but
:03:55. > :03:58.it's politically useless. -- radical and innovative on its own terms. I
:03:59. > :04:01.don't think any member of the public does not think they are not radical
:04:02. > :04:04.enough or creative enough. If anything, it's the opposite. They
:04:05. > :04:09.are a bit nervous about what a Labour government could do and
:04:10. > :04:13.nervous about the economic reputation. Reassurance, caution,
:04:14. > :04:17.maybe a bit of timidity might be the notions that inform their policies
:04:18. > :04:23.or should inform their policies in night -- my view, not the opposite.
:04:24. > :04:26.I am worried for Jon Cruddas, because anyone who questions the
:04:27. > :04:30.Labour Party are part of the nexus of the banking industry who are
:04:31. > :04:33.terrified of a Labour victory. It's interesting that this goes to the
:04:34. > :04:37.heart of the debate in the Labour Party, at the highest levels, do
:04:38. > :04:41.they put a big offer to the British people, or a little off, John
:04:42. > :04:48.Cruddas offer, or Douglas Alexander offer? Ed Miliband says that his
:04:49. > :04:51.ideas about freezing energy prices and rent controls are a big offer,
:04:52. > :04:55.but his policy chief clearly has real concerns that they don't go far
:04:56. > :05:00.enough. How important a figure is John Cruddas in the project? He is
:05:01. > :05:05.hell of the -- head of the policy review and has a huge amount of
:05:06. > :05:10.power, and so him slagging off the policy review is a bad moment. He is
:05:11. > :05:14.trusted in that inner circle and the problem for Ed Miliband from the odd
:05:15. > :05:17.is that he has people with strong opinions, Maurice clasping is
:05:18. > :05:23.another, big thinkers, but they maybe don't have a precaution that a
:05:24. > :05:28.professional politician might have in terms of giving bland answers.
:05:29. > :05:30.So, David Cameron had to apologise after his former director
:05:31. > :05:32.of communications was convicted of phone hacking.
:05:33. > :05:36.David Cameron's other former friend, Rebekah Brooks, had a better day.
:05:37. > :05:41.At the same trial, she was cleared of all the charges against her.
:05:42. > :05:48.I take full responsibility for employing Andy Coulson. I did some
:05:49. > :05:51.on the basis of undertakings I was given by him about phone hacking and
:05:52. > :05:55.those turned out not to be the case. I always said that if they turned
:05:56. > :06:00.out to be wrong, I would make a full and frank apology, and I do that
:06:01. > :06:05.today. I am extremely sorry that I employed him. It was the wrong
:06:06. > :06:09.decision. I'm clear about that. When I was arrested it was in the middle
:06:10. > :06:13.of a maelstrom of controversy, politics and of comment. Some of
:06:14. > :06:23.that was there, but much of it was not, so I'm grateful to the jury for
:06:24. > :06:27.coming to that decision. Not been a great week for David Cameron. Andy
:06:28. > :06:30.Coulson found guilty, and another person who had worked in Downing
:06:31. > :06:36.Street is also charged on an unrelated issue. And he was 26-2 on
:06:37. > :06:39.the wrong end in Brussels, and there is a poll this morning which no one
:06:40. > :06:43.seems to be talking about which puts Labour nine points ahead. Before all
:06:44. > :06:48.that there was Dominic Cummings criticising the Downing Street
:06:49. > :06:52.operation is being shambolic. Is Mr Cameron's judgement becoming an
:06:53. > :06:55.issue? Yes, what often happens when one leader is under pressure for
:06:56. > :06:59.long enough, as Ed Miliband has been the six months, we get bored. We
:07:00. > :07:02.then switch the Gatling gun to the other guy. So David Cameron going
:07:03. > :07:06.into the Conference season might be the man under pressure. The whole
:07:07. > :07:09.Andy Coulson saga has raised questions about his judgement and
:07:10. > :07:13.those around him, but any political damage she was going to sustain over
:07:14. > :07:16.Andy Coulson and phone hacking was sustained years ago -- he was
:07:17. > :07:20.going. It was Brother beyond the date the News of the World was
:07:21. > :07:24.closed down three summers ago -- it was probably on the date. As the
:07:25. > :07:31.hacking trial cut through to the general public? Or is it just as
:07:32. > :07:34.media and political obsessives? I am sure it has cut through in some way
:07:35. > :07:39.but it didn't necessarily happen in recent days, more likely in recent
:07:40. > :07:43.years. It was some time ago that Andy Coulson resigned in high
:07:44. > :07:47.profile circumstances. It has had a slow burning effect over a few
:07:48. > :07:52.years, and the Prime Minister fears the Big Bang. But there is one theme
:07:53. > :07:56.and words that unites this week with Juncker and Andy Coulson, and that
:07:57. > :07:59.is that the Prime Minister can be lackadaisical. He was lackadaisical
:08:00. > :08:03.in not asking big question is when there was a lot in the public domain
:08:04. > :08:07.about what had happened that the News of the World. And he was
:08:08. > :08:09.lackadaisical with Juncker. He made a calculation that Angela Merkel
:08:10. > :08:13.would support him and it turned out she couldn't. Maybe he needs to
:08:14. > :08:17.change. He was late in understanding what was happening in Germany when
:08:18. > :08:24.both the Christian Democrats, her party, wanted Juncker, and when the
:08:25. > :08:29.actual Murdoch press of Germany said that they wanted him as well. He
:08:30. > :08:33.never saw that. He only looks at one person in Germany, Angela Merkel,
:08:34. > :08:38.and it is a grand coalition, and the SDP felt strongly about it. He is,
:08:39. > :08:41.in a sense, an essay crisis Prime Minister. He is, in a sense, an
:08:42. > :08:46.essay crisis Prime Minister. He's very good in an essay, and the SA
:08:47. > :08:52.gets a double first the essay. Is Ed Miliband right to be angry? He has
:08:53. > :08:56.John Cruddas attacking him, and that is the news leading in the Sunday
:08:57. > :08:59.Times, and has not been a good week the Prime Minister and in which Mr
:09:00. > :09:03.Miliband has a bigger lead in the polls than he has had some time, so
:09:04. > :09:07.he must be wondering why they are having a go at him. He made a
:09:08. > :09:09.tactical error in Prime Minister's Questions by asking all the
:09:10. > :09:14.questions about Andy Coulson. The one at the end about what Gus
:09:15. > :09:19.O'Donnell said was rather hopeful in the extreme. Politicians can be out
:09:20. > :09:22.of touch on all sides of the house. The problem is, and there is a great
:09:23. > :09:27.quote by William Hague, is that the Tory party has two modes, panic and
:09:28. > :09:30.complacency. At the moment they are complacent. They think Ed Miliband
:09:31. > :09:33.will lose Labour election but I don't know if they have a positive
:09:34. > :09:36.plan about how to win it. -- lose Labour the election.
:09:37. > :09:38.Now, we knew Prince Charles had trouble keeping his views
:09:39. > :09:40.about the environment and the countryside to himself,
:09:41. > :09:43.but that's not the only thing he's passionate about according to
:09:44. > :09:45.a radio four documentary to be broadcast this lunchtime.
:09:46. > :09:50.Here's former Education Secretary, David Blunkett on how the Prince
:09:51. > :09:53.had once attempted to influence his policy on schools.
:09:54. > :09:59.I would explain that our policy was not to expand grammar schools, and
:10:00. > :10:06.he didn't like that. He was very keen that we should go back to a
:10:07. > :10:09.different era where youngsters had what he would've seen as the
:10:10. > :10:11.opportunity to escape from their background, where as I wanted to
:10:12. > :10:13.change their background. And you can hear that documentary -
:10:14. > :10:23.it's called The Royal Activist - Does it matter that Prince Charles
:10:24. > :10:25.is getting involved in this kind of policy, released behind closed doors
:10:26. > :10:32.question mark on the issue of grammar schools is not clear anybody
:10:33. > :10:35.listened to him. I think it is a principal problem. I've spoken to
:10:36. > :10:38.form a government members, and judging by what they say, if
:10:39. > :10:42.anything we underestimate how much contacting makes with ministers. And
:10:43. > :10:47.how many representations he makes on the issue that interest him. There
:10:48. > :10:51.has been an attempt to keep it hidden. It's almost a theological
:10:52. > :10:55.question about whether the future monarch should be involved in the
:10:56. > :10:58.public realm. If he wants to influence policy, shouldn't we know
:10:59. > :11:04.what policy he's trying to influence and what position he is taking?
:11:05. > :11:10.Sewer speech is better than private one-on-one lobbying. Possibly -- so
:11:11. > :11:13.a speech. Prince Charles's views are interesting. He's not a straight
:11:14. > :11:18.down the light reactionary. He makes a left-wing case for rammer schools.
:11:19. > :11:22.There is an interview with him in the Financial Times in which his
:11:23. > :11:26.argument in favour for architectural development takes into account
:11:27. > :11:29.affordable housing in the wake which no one would have suspected. He has
:11:30. > :11:33.interesting views, but I'm not convinced on the point of principle
:11:34. > :11:37.whether someone is dashing his position should be speaking. Your
:11:38. > :11:45.former employer 's famously described him as the SDP king. You
:11:46. > :11:51.slightly feel sorry for him. He's 66 and still an apprentice. He's in a
:11:52. > :11:55.difficult position. We know what the powers of the monarch are. They are
:11:56. > :11:59.to advise in courage and warned the Prime Minister of the day. These in
:12:00. > :12:02.the difficult position where the problem for him is that there is a
:12:03. > :12:06.line that isn't really defined, but you slightly feel he just gets a bit
:12:07. > :12:11.too close to it and possibly crosses that line with the lobbying that
:12:12. > :12:16.goes on. I think the worrying thing is that at some point he will become
:12:17. > :12:20.King and will he know that he has got to work within that framework?
:12:21. > :12:24.He is somebody that cannot win either. If he doesn't take an
:12:25. > :12:28.interest in public policy, he will be thought to be a bit of a waster,
:12:29. > :12:32.going round opening town halls, and when he does have an interest we
:12:33. > :12:36.think, hey, you are in the monarchy, stay out. There's an interesting
:12:37. > :12:42.parallel with first ladies who are encouraged to find a controversial
:12:43. > :12:46.charitable project. Michelle Obama has bought childhood obesity, and
:12:47. > :12:50.that is the standard thing. Everybody knows that that is a bad
:12:51. > :12:54.thing, but you are not offering solutions that are party political.
:12:55. > :12:57.I feel there must be a middle way with what he should be able to do
:12:58. > :13:01.about finding big causes he can complain about without getting stuck
:13:02. > :13:05.into lobbying ministers. Which can become a party political issue. He
:13:06. > :13:07.has had some influence on architecture, because the buildings
:13:08. > :13:10.we are putting up to date are better than the ones we used to put up.
:13:11. > :13:14.The Daily Politics is on BBC 2 at 11:00am
:13:15. > :13:19.We'll be back here at the same time next week.
:13:20. > :13:23.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.