:00:36. > :00:41.The Government continues its push for the UK to join air-strikes
:00:42. > :00:48.Is it winning the argument and does it have the votes in Parliament?
:00:49. > :00:52.We'll hear from former Tory defence secretary Liam Fox, and Respect
:00:53. > :00:59.Jeremy Corbyn is struggling to get his way over Syria, as he tries to
:01:00. > :01:01.persuade his Shadow Cabinet to back his opposition to bombing.
:01:02. > :01:05.We'll hear from Shadow Justice Secretary, Charlie Falconer.
:01:06. > :01:07.And the former Conservative chairman Grant Shapps resigns
:01:08. > :01:12.from the Government over allegations he failed to act on bullying claims
:01:13. > :01:25.In London, the Chancellor spared the really the end of the story?
:01:26. > :01:27.In London, the Chancellor spared the Metropolitan Police but his spending
:01:28. > :01:28.In London, the Chancellor spared the decisions will have consequences for
:01:29. > :01:38.transport, housing and councils. So, yesterday,
:01:39. > :01:39.former Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps resigned from
:01:40. > :01:43.the Government over allegations he failed to act on claims of bullying
:01:44. > :01:47.in the youth wing of the party. It's a complicated story,
:01:48. > :01:50.as Giles Dilnot explains. Grant Shapps, former co-chair
:01:51. > :01:56.of the Conservative Party and now a former minister, must wish
:01:57. > :02:02.as his senior aide Paul Abbot Clarke once tipped for the top
:02:03. > :02:21.by Tatler magazine unsuccessfully As a result of his behaviour
:02:22. > :02:25.during that campaign, about which complaints were made, he
:02:26. > :02:28.was taken off the candidates list. A girlfriend at the time declaring
:02:29. > :02:35.he was "unfit to be an MP". In early 2014,
:02:36. > :02:37.Mr Clarke approached the Conservatives and Grant Shapps
:02:38. > :02:39.in particular with an idea. It was simple, bus loads of young
:02:40. > :02:46.Tory activists to marginal seats during the 2015 general election
:02:47. > :02:48.campaign to doorstep constituents. In the face of of unshifting polls,
:02:49. > :02:55.the idea appealed to Conservative Central Headquarters but they
:02:56. > :02:59.wanted to have some control over it. Grant Shapps decided not only to
:03:00. > :03:02.back the idea, but help pay for it, and put Clarke in charge
:03:03. > :03:07.of the operation. never met are you going to be a part
:03:08. > :03:17.of this? -- are you going to be? Roadtrip 2015,
:03:18. > :03:19.as the plan was called, had another motive for Clarke, to see him back
:03:20. > :03:22.on the Conservative candidate list and perhaps he would have and this
:03:23. > :03:25.story ended if not for the apparent suicide in mid-September
:03:26. > :03:27.of a young activist called Elliot Johnson, who left a note, naming
:03:28. > :03:30.Mark Clarke as someone who'd been bullying him and a secret recording
:03:31. > :03:33.of Clarke challenging him in a pub. In the wake of Elliot Johnson's
:03:34. > :03:36.death, lurid allegations emerged about Clarke, alleging sexual
:03:37. > :03:37.misconduct, drugs, intimidation, blackmail and bullying connected to
:03:38. > :03:48.Roadtrip, all denied by Mark Clarke. But August e-mail exchanges
:03:49. > :03:51.between Mr Clarke and Mr Shapps' aide Paul Abbot show Mr Abbott was
:03:52. > :03:53.aware of complaints Nothing was done and since Mr Shapps
:03:54. > :04:01.gave Clarke an official Party role he has now resigned saying
:04:02. > :04:03."the buck stops with me". The Prime Minister says a full
:04:04. > :04:08.internal investigation is under way. Elliot Johnson's father wants an
:04:09. > :04:13.independent external investigation. The most serious allegations
:04:14. > :04:15.about Clarke were made after Grant Shapps had been moved to
:04:16. > :04:21.a junior ministerial position and Lord Feldman, David Cameron's
:04:22. > :04:24.chief fundraiser and close friend, He says the party cannot find
:04:25. > :04:30.nor was aware of any written If, by falling on his sword,
:04:31. > :04:36.Mr Shapps hoped to stop the scandal spreading,
:04:37. > :04:55.he may actually only have become The Sunday Politics panel is here.
:04:56. > :05:01.Nick, here is the case for Shapps. He has been made a scapegoat. This
:05:02. > :05:06.is not the end of the story. I think it is not the end of the story.
:05:07. > :05:10.Grant Shapps did sign up Mark Clark to do this. I think it is getting
:05:11. > :05:20.awfully close to the door of Andrew Feldman. They went -- he went to
:05:21. > :05:26.college with the Prime Minister and organised some balls. They go back a
:05:27. > :05:28.long way. The road trip was run out of Conservative campaign
:05:29. > :05:32.headquarters in the run-up to the general election. Most significantly
:05:33. > :05:38.for Andrew Feldman, he signed the checks to allow the road trip to
:05:39. > :05:41.take place. We're not talking small cheques, we are talking many
:05:42. > :05:47.hundreds of thousands of pounds. Grant Shapps was in charge of it on
:05:48. > :05:59.a day-to-day basis but Andrew Feldman and his sister helped the
:06:00. > :06:02.running of the road trip. What it does is put the attention onto some
:06:03. > :06:07.of the attention onto summary the attention would be, what did Andrew
:06:08. > :06:14.Feldman do? What did he know and when and what did he do? What we
:06:15. > :06:20.have to remember is Baroness Warsi, who was co-chairman, kicked this guy
:06:21. > :06:25.out of the party. Feldman was Chairman Ben and Shapps brought him
:06:26. > :06:28.back. Feldman was co-chairman and Feldman is still the chairman now.
:06:29. > :06:33.In terms of the party, what some people were saying to me yesterday,
:06:34. > :06:42.actually, it cannot be seen that Cameron is protecting Lord Fellman
:06:43. > :06:47.-- Feldman because he is his friend. He has got questions to answer. I
:06:48. > :06:52.also think that if people who are in the party feel these questions are
:06:53. > :06:57.not being answered, and it is not an open process, loads more leaks will
:06:58. > :07:04.come out and it will get messier and messier and messier. It is a rum do,
:07:05. > :07:10.what was going on inside the Tory Party in its youth wing. Multiple
:07:11. > :07:13.allegations of bullying and sexual harassment. Culminating in this
:07:14. > :07:20.young man taking his life on a railway line. It is an appalling
:07:21. > :07:23.thing. There is a history of unusual behaviour amongst Conservative
:07:24. > :07:26.students going back to the 1980s when Norman Tebbit closed down the
:07:27. > :07:35.Confederation of Conservative students. It is the most extreme
:07:36. > :07:40.incident I have ever encountered. This is about personal behaviour.
:07:41. > :07:44.The parents of Elliott Johnson raised an important question of
:07:45. > :07:48.chronology. Grant Shapps stop being co-chairman in May. Some of the
:07:49. > :07:58.allegations against Mark Clark, some of the complaints surfaced as
:07:59. > :08:02.recently as August. There is a deeper structural problem, which is
:08:03. > :08:08.the Conservative Party does not have activists. They have to find them
:08:09. > :08:12.where they can get them. Or, when summary has a reputation as bad as
:08:13. > :08:17.Mark Clark, they end up going along with them because options are so
:08:18. > :08:19.limited. It will not be the end of the story.
:08:20. > :08:22.David Cameron is expected to ask MPs to approve UK air strikes
:08:23. > :08:26.The Government thinks it now has enough support to risk a vote
:08:27. > :08:29.in the Commons, even though the Labour Party is still unclear.
:08:30. > :08:32.And the PM will almost certainly need Labour votes to get his way.
:08:33. > :08:35.Mr Corbyn is still trying to rally his Shadow Cabinet and Labour MPs
:08:36. > :08:38.He told Andrew Marr they should recognise his direct mandate
:08:39. > :08:42.And so what I've done is what I said I would always do,
:08:43. > :08:45.I would try to democratise the way the party does things.
:08:46. > :08:47.Yes, I have sent an e-mail to party members, and actually,
:08:48. > :08:50.70,000 have already replied with their views.
:08:51. > :08:54.I don't know what all the views are, obviously, I haven't read them all,
:08:55. > :09:02.Surely we must recognise that in a democracy, the Labour Party has
:09:03. > :09:05.a very large membership, nearly 400,000 members, they have a right
:09:06. > :09:09.to express their point of view and MPs have to listen to it and have to
:09:10. > :09:11.try and understand what's going on in the minds
:09:12. > :09:22.I've been joined by Charlie Falconer, Jeremy Corbyn's
:09:23. > :09:34.Are you minded to support government on the subject of Syrian air
:09:35. > :09:38.strikes? I am. Then need to be assurances, given to the House of
:09:39. > :09:44.Commons but I am minded to support air strikes. The reason I am, I
:09:45. > :09:48.think Isil poses a threat to the region and also Europe, including
:09:49. > :09:53.the United Kingdom. I believe air strikes over Iraq and Syria are
:09:54. > :09:58.having an effect on reducing that risk. I think it is wrong that we
:09:59. > :10:02.are participating in Syria when what is going on is we are trying to
:10:03. > :10:06.defend the United Kingdom. I believe the only long-term solution is there
:10:07. > :10:11.needs to be a solution to the Syrian civil war and the bombing of cracker
:10:12. > :10:22.will not significantly contribute to that. -- Raqqa. I believe we do not
:10:23. > :10:28.have a choice. The likelihood is that the Shadow Cabinet will agree a
:10:29. > :10:32.collective position in this matter. There are honourably held collective
:10:33. > :10:38.views. The Shadow Cabinet on Thursday, they were appropriately
:10:39. > :10:42.discussing. Everybody was conscious of the fact we have to reach a
:10:43. > :10:47.conclusion in national interests. With an issue like this where there
:10:48. > :10:56.is agreement on the factual material, international law, the
:10:57. > :11:00.final judgment, there is such a difficult decision to be made, it is
:11:01. > :11:03.not surprising that our disagreements in the Shadow Cabinet.
:11:04. > :11:08.It is unlikely that tomorrow you will be able to agree a collective
:11:09. > :11:16.line. I think that is right. It is unlikely we'll be able to agree a
:11:17. > :11:22.yes or no answer to the question the Government is about to post. If it
:11:23. > :11:31.does not and there is a free vote for this among Labour MPs, it does
:11:32. > :11:37.make it certain that Mr Cameron will win by a convincing majority. I do
:11:38. > :11:42.not know the position. I think everyone is weighing up the merits
:11:43. > :11:44.of the argument. The right thing to do is for mothers of the
:11:45. > :11:47.Parliamentary Labour Party members of the Shadow Cabinet to consider
:11:48. > :11:53.all the arguments and reach a conclusion as to what they think is
:11:54. > :11:57.in the national interest. It is clear that enough Labour MPs will
:11:58. > :12:03.abstain or side with the Government to give Mr Cameron a majority, even
:12:04. > :12:07.if that are some Tory defectors. If the position where it was whipped
:12:08. > :12:11.against by the Labour Party, that with very significantly reduce the
:12:12. > :12:16.chances if it were a free vote. I do not know what the final figures
:12:17. > :12:20.would be. Your figures sound right. Should there be a free vote? What is
:12:21. > :12:25.the alternative given the position you are into a free vote? My own
:12:26. > :12:31.view is I do not think this very important issue should be allowed to
:12:32. > :12:35.be a situation that forces resignations on people. I think the
:12:36. > :12:39.right course is, if the Shadow Cabinet cannot come to a collective
:12:40. > :12:44.view, and I accept that maybe unlikely, probably the best course
:12:45. > :12:49.is a free vote. That is ultimately for the leadership to decide. For an
:12:50. > :12:52.opposition which aspires to government when you're not a
:12:53. > :12:57.debating society. You are the opposition, the alternative
:12:58. > :13:01.government. What would voters think if you cannot agree a collective
:13:02. > :13:13.position on something as important as war? What the Government be
:13:14. > :13:15.seeing is a legitimate debate. The public is like the Parliamentary
:13:16. > :13:19.Labour Party and like the saddo Cabinet, of different views. You
:13:20. > :13:25.need to come to a collective view. We need to know your view on this.
:13:26. > :13:30.The differences with this is I do not think it will be possible. I do
:13:31. > :13:33.not think that is surprising. That reflects the debate that is going on
:13:34. > :13:39.in the country. The debate going on in the country is going on within
:13:40. > :13:44.the Labour Party. If Mr Corbyn was to attempt, and he said this morning
:13:45. > :13:48.it is his decision to whip or not. If there were a decision to whip
:13:49. > :13:54.Labour members to vote against bombing, would that be a resignation
:13:55. > :13:59.matter for you? I do not want to comment on that. I very much hope
:14:00. > :14:03.any sort of resignations will be avoided. I think the position will
:14:04. > :14:06.be we will have a further discussion on Monday and a collective you will
:14:07. > :14:12.be reached as to how we go forward in relation to the progress. One
:14:13. > :14:16.Labour MP told us that Mr Corbyn's and of this vote seems to him like a
:14:17. > :14:22.deliberate search for a fight and he is very disappointed. I do not
:14:23. > :14:26.agree. The key thing about what is happening now is not who sent a
:14:27. > :14:31.letter when. The key thing which the public want us to debate is the
:14:32. > :14:35.question itself. Should we support air strikes or not? I think the
:14:36. > :14:40.important thing about this week will not be who said what to whom but
:14:41. > :14:45.will be where you stood on the issue. It is one of those issues
:14:46. > :14:50.where the judgment about what was right and what was wrong will not
:14:51. > :14:56.come on the basis of the politics of these few days. It will come on what
:14:57. > :15:02.happens going forward. What was the right decision? Let me ask you this.
:15:03. > :15:08.We do not have much time. Because you are a lawyer and an expert on
:15:09. > :15:12.the Labour Party, if Labour MPs sought to unseat Mr Corbyn, and
:15:13. > :15:18.there is some wild talk around on that, witty automatically be on the
:15:19. > :15:23.ballot paper of a new leadership election? I have not addressed that.
:15:24. > :15:27.It is not a moment to talk about any sort of leadership challenge. Jeremy
:15:28. > :15:32.Corbyn is leader. He was elected two months ago with a huge mandate. That
:15:33. > :15:36.is the position within the Labour Party and that is where we have to
:15:37. > :15:40.address it. It can hardly be a stable position to have a Labour
:15:41. > :15:45.leader, in such a key issue has bombing in Syria, at odds with a
:15:46. > :15:51.huge chunk of his Shadow Cabinet rest room at that position is
:15:52. > :15:55.unsustainable over the period. It was absolutely clear when Jeremy was
:15:56. > :15:58.elected, there were significant disagreements between Jeremy and
:15:59. > :16:00.others on policy. What is happening is the Labour Party is holding
:16:01. > :16:07.together. So far. So, once again a British government
:16:08. > :16:12.is gearing up extend military action It's a well-trod road
:16:13. > :16:17.and the outcome has not always been predictable, or pleasant,
:16:18. > :16:19.which is why so many are hesitant. Ellie Price has been looking
:16:20. > :16:22.at the Prime Minister's case for action, and what role the UK
:16:23. > :16:24.military might play. That bomb in Paris,
:16:25. > :16:31.that could have been London. If they had their way,
:16:32. > :16:33.it would be London. I can't stand here
:16:34. > :16:35.and say we're safe I can't stand here either
:16:36. > :16:39.and say we will remove the threat from the action we take, but do I
:16:40. > :16:43.stand here with advice behind me that taking action will degrade
:16:44. > :16:45.and reduce that threat over time? Absolutely,
:16:46. > :16:47.and I've examined my conscience David Cameron says he no longer
:16:48. > :16:54.wants to outsource this sort Britain is currently involved in air
:16:55. > :16:59.strikes against so-called Islamic State, but only in Iraq, shown here
:17:00. > :17:04.in the bottom half of this shot. The border, for British forces
:17:05. > :17:09.at least, is crucial. IS, Isis, Daesh - whatever you want
:17:10. > :17:14.to call it - control or is free to operate in swathes of territory
:17:15. > :17:19.in Iraq and Syria. Its so-called caliphate stretches
:17:20. > :17:21.from Aleppo in Syria to The lines on the map are relatively
:17:22. > :17:28.fluid, it recently lost control That was down to Kurdish forces with
:17:29. > :17:35.the help of US-led air strikes. Currently Australia,
:17:36. > :17:37.Canada and France are also flying bombing missions over both
:17:38. > :17:43.countries, targeting IS. According to the latest figures
:17:44. > :17:46.released on Friday, the US and its allies operating
:17:47. > :17:49.under the banner of Operation Inherent Resolve have conducted more
:17:50. > :17:53.than 8,500 air strikes against Islamic State targets since the
:17:54. > :17:59.start of the campaign last year. That's 5,580 air strikes in Iraq
:18:00. > :18:05.and 2,925 in Syria. More than 16,000 targets have been
:18:06. > :18:08.damaged or destroyed, including more than 4,500 buildings,
:18:09. > :18:14.nearly 5,000 fighting positions, and The vast majority have come from US
:18:15. > :18:21.aircraft, but the RAF has run 376 They've been launched
:18:22. > :18:28.from this base in Cyprus, where The base has also been used to
:18:29. > :18:34.carry out refuelling and The perception out there is
:18:35. > :18:40.the question as to whether or not the UK should be involved
:18:41. > :18:43.in the campaign in Syria or not. The reality is we are involved in
:18:44. > :18:47.that campaign but in an inconsistent Other countries, our allies,
:18:48. > :19:02.the Americans and French in particular, just don't quite
:19:03. > :19:05.understand where we are up to. The PM insists
:19:06. > :19:07.the RAF can provide specific skills that coalition partners are keen to
:19:08. > :19:09.make the most of. The ability to launch highly
:19:10. > :19:11.accurate Brimstone missiles. We are very good
:19:12. > :19:14.at not killing people collaterally, the UK, so in that sense I think us
:19:15. > :19:17.moving into Syria is good. The sad thing is that no matter how
:19:18. > :19:21.good you are, there will be innocent people killed but they are dying
:19:22. > :19:26.anyway because of Isil, and it's coming to the stage where you have
:19:27. > :19:29.to move forward and do things, even though that sort of thing happens,
:19:30. > :19:31.that cannot be Of course Russia is also involved
:19:32. > :19:36.in air strikes in Syria, but its support of President Assad's
:19:37. > :19:39.regime puts it at odds with The scale of these tensions
:19:40. > :19:46.demonstrated when Turkey, which vehemently opposes Assad, shot
:19:47. > :19:52.down a Russian plane last week. Most experts agree that air strikes
:19:53. > :19:55.alone will not destroy the common enemy of IS, that ground forces will
:19:56. > :20:00.be needed, but agreeing on exactly who those forces would be, could
:20:01. > :20:26.prove the biggest obstacle to peace. We are joined now by George
:20:27. > :20:30.Galloway. What should be done to thwart Islamic State, if not British
:20:31. > :20:34.bombing, what should be done to hit it in its heartland? Most of these
:20:35. > :20:39.terrorist attacks were carried out by people living in the countries in
:20:40. > :20:45.which they operated, Tunisia, France, Belgium and so on so you
:20:46. > :20:52.will not physically stop people bombing Raqqa turning up on the
:20:53. > :20:59.streets of Paris. But the planning involved Islamic State. There's not
:21:00. > :21:05.much logistics involved in taking arms into a nightclub and killing
:21:06. > :21:09.innocent people. There are many weapons in Europe, nobody is
:21:10. > :21:14.suggesting these weapons came from Syria. I don't want to dodge your
:21:15. > :21:19.question, I must strongly in favour of destroying Isis and Al-Qaeda as
:21:20. > :21:23.anybody else, more than the David Cameron government or they wouldn't
:21:24. > :21:27.be tolerating a situation where Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been
:21:28. > :21:34.supporting these people for years and until now are supporting them.
:21:35. > :21:40.We are steeped in blog so far but it is bloodier to go on, I promise you.
:21:41. > :21:50.What would you do? I would support the people fighting Isis and
:21:51. > :22:01.Al-Qaeda on the ground. The wide PG militia -- YPG militia. Give them
:22:02. > :22:10.weapons, every kind of support we can. It is a far better way than us
:22:11. > :22:19.joining in. Do you support Russian attacks on the anti-Assad forces in
:22:20. > :22:28.Syria? Yes, if they are coordinated with the Syrian government's army.
:22:29. > :22:31.So do you support British attacks on Islamic State forces in Iraq at
:22:32. > :22:37.their request of the Iraq government? I do, and if they were
:22:38. > :22:43.coordinated with the Government that make sense militarily, and if we
:22:44. > :22:47.coordinated our involvement with Russia and the Syrian government in
:22:48. > :22:51.Syria, I would support that too but it's because I'm pretty sure the
:22:52. > :22:56.British government's real game is regime change and because we have
:22:57. > :23:00.seen regime change before in Iraq and Libya and they ended so
:23:01. > :23:07.disastrously, I am against it. It's not because I'm a pacifist. There
:23:08. > :23:14.was a time when David Cameron's priority was to get rid of a sad's
:23:15. > :23:19.regime but isn't it clear that David Cameron has realised that defeating
:23:20. > :23:23.Islamic State is more important to Britain's national interest than
:23:24. > :23:27.getting rid of Mr Assad? If it were you probably wouldn't have me on
:23:28. > :23:32.because I would be supporting it, but I don't believe that. I pray his
:23:33. > :23:37.utterly farcical claim in the House this week that there were 70,000
:23:38. > :23:44.moderate rebels armed and ready to take over the land liberated by our
:23:45. > :23:50.bombardment. You say that is fantasy? If there were 700 I would
:23:51. > :23:54.be surprised. We will bomb territory which will then be taken by other
:23:55. > :24:03.so-called moderate fanatics, the ones as I said to you before that
:24:04. > :24:07.only cut off half your head. Should we regard the Russians and the Assad
:24:08. > :24:17.regime as our allies in the fight against Islamic State? We had that
:24:18. > :24:22.chance and that was incinerated by our ally on his attack on the
:24:23. > :24:26.Russian air force bombing these people, shot out of the sky
:24:27. > :24:31.provoking a crisis between east and west, between Nato and Russia, which
:24:32. > :24:37.was completely unnecessary and completely contrary to any
:24:38. > :24:45.legitimate war aims. Could it not still be put together? I wish it
:24:46. > :24:49.would, I suspect it won't. If we had time to discuss it I would operate
:24:50. > :24:56.this point. Turkey is the source of this problem, the Turkish border has
:24:57. > :25:01.been open to these people. They have been selling billions of dollars
:25:02. > :25:08.worth of oil. A lot of it is being stolen by Isil and sold in Turkey, I
:25:09. > :25:13.believe to relatives of President Erdogan, which is then sold onwards
:25:14. > :25:18.to neighbouring countries. You cannot be serious about fighting
:25:19. > :25:23.Isil while you're Nato ally is openly collaborating with them. You
:25:24. > :25:28.follow closely what is going on in the Labour Party at the moment, does
:25:29. > :25:34.Jeremy Corbyn have an alternative to a free vote when this comes up for a
:25:35. > :25:51.vote in the Commons? If I were him, I would whip the vote because his
:25:52. > :25:55.enemies in the ... Because our record on intervention is so bad,
:25:56. > :26:01.because the likelihood of it not going well is so high, I would dare
:26:02. > :26:09.these rebels to facilitate David Cameron's court. Is that the
:26:10. > :26:14.intention? It looks to me as if it is ripping itself apart. This is
:26:15. > :26:18.Ramsay MacDonald in reverse, the leader remaining loyal to the party
:26:19. > :26:22.and the MPs joining effectively and national government in terms of War
:26:23. > :26:28.and peace at least so if I were Jeremy Corbyn, I would whip this
:26:29. > :26:32.vote and let the Labour members pass verdict on those that troop into the
:26:33. > :26:37.lobby with Liam Fox and David Cameron because I am pretty sure
:26:38. > :26:43.this is not going to end well. Even at the expense of ripping apart the
:26:44. > :26:49.Shadow Cabinet too? You would be whipping the Shadow Cabinet where
:26:50. > :26:52.there seems to be a majority against Jeremy Corbyn's position. Some of
:26:53. > :26:57.them might surprise you with their fidelity to the party in those
:26:58. > :27:02.circumstances, others might go. They are supporting the elected leader in
:27:03. > :27:08.the way the rope supports a hanging man. What are the chances of Jeremy
:27:09. > :27:12.Corbyn following your advice? Probably not, I would think
:27:13. > :27:19.listening to John McDonald and Ken Livingstone they will go for a free
:27:20. > :27:25.vote, that will merely postponed... And give David Cameron his big
:27:26. > :27:40.majority. Yes. It seems to me time to face that up. Thank you very
:27:41. > :27:43.much. At this point we say goodbye to viewers in Scotland.
:27:44. > :27:45.Party divisions on the issue of air strikes
:27:46. > :27:49.Here's the Conservative MP and chairman of the Defence Select
:27:50. > :27:51.Committee, Julian Lewis, speaking in the Commons debate on Thursday.
:27:52. > :27:53.Air strikes alone will not be effective,
:27:54. > :27:56.they've got to be in coordination with credible ground forces.
:27:57. > :27:58.Now, the suggestion there are 70,000 non-Islamist, moderate, credible
:27:59. > :28:01.ground forces, I have to say, is a revelation to me and I suspect
:28:02. > :28:05.I've been joined by former Conservative Defence
:28:06. > :28:19.Two years ago you want to Britain to bomb the forces of President Assad,
:28:20. > :28:25.who is fighting Islamic State, now you want us to bomb Islamic State,
:28:26. > :28:29.which is fighting President Assad. Doesn't map flip-flop undermine your
:28:30. > :28:34.credibility? The original vote was very different, it was because Assad
:28:35. > :28:39.had used chemical weapons in breach of international law against his
:28:40. > :28:42.civilian population and the question then was worthy international
:28:43. > :28:46.community going to uphold that international law by making a
:28:47. > :28:50.punitive strike to teach the Assad regime and the rebels, who it was
:28:51. > :28:57.suspected might also have chemical weapons, that it would not be
:28:58. > :29:02.acceptable to use them. But it would have created more chaos in Syria and
:29:03. > :29:08.allowed Islamic State to benefit, to exploit that, as it had done
:29:09. > :29:11.previously. I'm not sure I'd buy that because if you have made a
:29:12. > :29:16.relatively small number of punitive strikes from some of the command and
:29:17. > :29:22.control of the regime to send a signal not to use chemical weapons
:29:23. > :29:29.again, that would have upheld the international community's position.
:29:30. > :29:33.Do you accept that extending British bombing into Syria now against
:29:34. > :29:39.Islamic State this time is not a military game changer, that it is --
:29:40. > :29:45.its military impact will be marginal at most? I think its military impact
:29:46. > :29:50.may be moderate at best, I accept that, however within that we have a
:29:51. > :29:53.number of weapons systems that can diminish the chance of civilian
:29:54. > :29:58.casualties, and I think that's important because it denies a
:29:59. > :30:03.propaganda weapon. Obviously anything that reduces civilian
:30:04. > :30:04.casualties is vital, but it won't change things very much on the
:30:05. > :30:16.ground militarily. The fact we have not been there has
:30:17. > :30:21.been an encouragement for other countries. For example, Saudi
:30:22. > :30:26.Arabia, UAE, Jordan, in recent months they have stopped
:30:27. > :30:31.contributing to the air campaigns. It makes it more difficult for us to
:30:32. > :30:38.persuade them to take part if we are not taking part. We have a
:30:39. > :30:43.militarily absurd policy of bombing in Iraq but not in Syria. After we
:30:44. > :30:51.have joined America, France, Bahrain, Syria, Russia, Australia,
:30:52. > :30:58.and recently Saudi Arabia and the UAE in bombing IS in Syria, what
:30:59. > :31:02.then? The question is, our ability to degrade military capability. One
:31:03. > :31:06.of the problems with sorties in Iraq is command and control is coming
:31:07. > :31:12.from Syria. That is where they are drawing strength from. The US has
:31:13. > :31:19.launched 2703 strikes in Syria alone and others have carried out 154. Why
:31:20. > :31:25.is that not doing the degrading? You have to carry out the number of
:31:26. > :31:30.attacks to provide that degradation. We need to continue that. The
:31:31. > :31:34.question you are alluding to is the right question. Even if you have
:31:35. > :31:40.degraded the ices capabilities, which is what we want, what is the
:31:41. > :31:46.next step? How do you hold any territory you may take from them?
:31:47. > :31:49.Part of the reply from the Prime Minister is there are 70,000
:31:50. > :31:54.moderate opposition fighters ready to become the ground force against
:31:55. > :32:02.Islamic State. Who is the leader and what do they want? You have a
:32:03. > :32:06.disparate grouping. Not 70,000 acting together. What the Prime
:32:07. > :32:10.Minister was saying from the joint intelligence committee, what they
:32:11. > :32:15.are saying was, there is a potential force of that size. The longer we
:32:16. > :32:20.wait to do great ices, the smaller that force is likely to be and the
:32:21. > :32:29.less its capabilities are likely to be. -- Isis. It is a fantasy to say
:32:30. > :32:35.there are 70,000 ground troops ready to come in and help on the ground if
:32:36. > :32:40.we extend the bombing to Syria. Let's assume the numbers are
:32:41. > :32:45.correct. To further questions we have to ask. Are they willing to
:32:46. > :32:51.operate together as a single force? The second is, do they have the
:32:52. > :32:55.capability to do so? Over the next few days, part of the debate will be
:32:56. > :32:59.around that. It will be around the fact you may have to supply some of
:33:00. > :33:06.those forces with mentoring and training to enable them to be able
:33:07. > :33:09.to be an effective force against Isis, which they have not
:33:10. > :33:19.necessarily been able to up until now. The wacky experience on that
:33:20. > :33:27.was disastrous. I would say, look at the other side. -- the wacky
:33:28. > :33:34.experience. Look at our ability to mental the Afghan army. Isn't it
:33:35. > :33:38.inevitable that everyone to make progress against Islamic State, in
:33:39. > :33:44.some way, President Assad and the Russians will have to become our
:33:45. > :33:51.allies? This is a very difficult pill to swallow for many people, who
:33:52. > :33:54.think the regime is particularly unpleasant. I would love to see a
:33:55. > :33:59.different regime in place that was not killing its civilian population
:34:00. > :34:04.and gay people in Syria chance to discover their own future. But, as
:34:05. > :34:07.we have done in previous military situations, sometimes we have to
:34:08. > :34:12.recognise these challenges have to be dealt with in series, not in
:34:13. > :34:16.parallel. That is what is very important about the statement by the
:34:17. > :34:28.Prime Minister. It is not an ices only strategy but Aaron -- Raqqa
:34:29. > :34:39.only strategy but and Raqqa first strategy. You are saying you are
:34:40. > :34:44.getting support of factions. The important thing is we bring together
:34:45. > :34:50.all those who want to deal with IS first. They are the threat to
:34:51. > :34:55.national. We need to grasp the size of that threat to national to. They
:34:56. > :35:03.hate us, Andrew. Not because of what we do because of who we are. They
:35:04. > :35:08.will never stop that. Why would we get help from non-IS forces on the
:35:09. > :35:14.ground if we are also seem to be on the side of the Russians? They are
:35:15. > :35:19.also a threat to those people inside Syria. It is in the interests of all
:35:20. > :35:26.parties concerned to deal with what is a highly ideological, dangerous,
:35:27. > :35:30.fascistic threat. They endanger regional security. We must not allow
:35:31. > :35:38.them to Hello and welcome to
:35:39. > :35:42.Sunday Politics. The Chancellor drops plans to axe
:35:43. > :35:44.tax credits, leaving Stormont with I'll be asking the Green MLA,
:35:45. > :35:53.Steven Agnew, and the chair of Citizens' Advice,
:35:54. > :35:57.Paul Callaghan, for their thoughts. With Paris about to host
:35:58. > :35:59.the latest climate change conference, how might any outcome
:36:00. > :36:01.affect this corner of the world? And with their thoughts throughout -
:36:02. > :36:04.Professor Deirdre Heenan and The Chancellor's decision not to
:36:05. > :36:14.scrap tax credits has left Stormont with a small windfall
:36:15. > :36:18.of 60 million a year. The cash had been set aside to help
:36:19. > :36:20.people hit by the proposed changes before
:36:21. > :36:24.the Chancellor's U-turn last week. With me is the Green Party MLA,
:36:25. > :36:39.Steven Agnew, and Paul Callaghan. You have tabled an urgent oral
:36:40. > :36:47.question at Stormont tomorrow. Is that to try and influence how the
:36:48. > :36:52.money is spent? Sinn Fein and the Alliance have given away powers
:36:53. > :37:04.legislatively. It is important that this is our money and that is how we
:37:05. > :37:10.spend it. I think transferring this money back into welfare, to
:37:11. > :37:17.essentially provide the public with what they promise would be a good
:37:18. > :37:20.way to spend it. There is dispute about the figure. 15 million per
:37:21. > :37:30.year that has been taken from another fund as part of this. There
:37:31. > :37:34.is a robbing the poor to pay the poor. The discretionary fund has
:37:35. > :37:44.been slashed disorders oche. Now it is not. It is not fine. People are
:37:45. > :37:47.going to be worse off in Northern Ireland. The way it was presented
:37:48. > :37:53.was not quite as good as what we saw.
:37:54. > :37:59.If you have the capacity to decide where the money would go where would
:38:00. > :38:02.you Channel it? Throughout the welfare reform process I said we
:38:03. > :38:06.need to protect people with disabilities and protect children.
:38:07. > :38:17.But is still happening. We have given the welfare pop-up money to --
:38:18. > :38:24.we have given the top up fund to the professor. There has been complete
:38:25. > :38:29.abdication by Sinn Fein and the Alliance. The power has been given
:38:30. > :38:35.away. That is not good enough. My recommendation to the professor
:38:36. > :38:39.would be to protect those with disabilities and children. By and
:38:40. > :38:45.assure the other parties would dispute your interpretation. They
:38:46. > :38:49.have been noticeable by their absence this week in the media. They
:38:50. > :38:53.have not come forward. If you had an influence over where the money would
:38:54. > :39:01.go what would you do? The first thing to say is that whatever way we
:39:02. > :39:11.measure it that wealthier mitigation arrangements are better than in
:39:12. > :39:16.Scotland, England and Wales. Any recommendations can only be within
:39:17. > :39:21.the fiscal envelope that they have. There is a couple of points. Before
:39:22. > :39:25.we deal with this question of tax credits and what has been described
:39:26. > :39:29.as a windfall, but I would not describe it as, if you look at what
:39:30. > :39:35.the Treasury is already imposing as fines on the executive, in this
:39:36. > :39:39.financial year the kicking at ?140 million, which is roughly ?20
:39:40. > :39:43.million over and above what is earmarked in the fresh start
:39:44. > :39:46.Agreement for welfare reform at a geisha. Already there is a ?20
:39:47. > :39:50.million gap there. That is before the deal with the questions that
:39:51. > :39:56.have been raised this week. The much bigger point to make is that the
:39:57. > :40:00.changes that the Chancellor announced in the art statement this
:40:01. > :40:04.week are simply a delay of the implications that were going to
:40:05. > :40:10.happen anyway around tax credits. The Institute for the school studies
:40:11. > :40:15.have said that people who would have been affected by the tax credits
:40:16. > :40:17.changes will by the end of the parliament actually be worse off
:40:18. > :40:21.after the Autumn Statement than they would have been and at the tax
:40:22. > :40:25.credits changes because all of the same productions to the incomes and
:40:26. > :40:29.more will happen under Universal Credit. From a citizens advice point
:40:30. > :40:34.of view and the perspective of the poultry sector, the ?60 million
:40:35. > :40:37.annually should be retained to cushion the impact of those people
:40:38. > :40:40.because they either see people who are going to be affected as would
:40:41. > :40:44.been affected by tax credit reductions. That is an important
:40:45. > :40:48.point. While may feel that your position to some extent has been
:40:49. > :40:54.vindicated and this is a development worth celebrating, four years down
:40:55. > :40:57.the line went Universal Credit takes over from the current system, nobody
:40:58. > :41:01.knows quite what the situation is going to be, but this is a fair bet
:41:02. > :41:06.that people in receipt of benefits will be worse off, not better off.
:41:07. > :41:09.Absolutely. This is the problem with giving power back over to a Tory
:41:10. > :41:16.garments. There has been a war on the poor. It has been waged by this
:41:17. > :41:25.Tory Government. It is to continue. This latest piece of spend is just
:41:26. > :41:29.that. But that power comes back. It does not reside in Westminster. But
:41:30. > :41:35.what it ensures us that play mini legislation and regulation changes,
:41:36. > :41:40.these types of details, that'll all be decided in Westminster before we
:41:41. > :41:45.get our powers back. That is what DUP, Sinn Fein and the Alliance
:41:46. > :41:49.wanted. They wanted somebody else to make a difficult decision.
:41:50. > :41:53.What concern is it that locally elected politicians will not have
:41:54. > :41:56.the degree of influence that they might otherwise have had had the
:41:57. > :42:03.Mideast difficult decisions entirely at Stormont? That is a matter for
:42:04. > :42:09.the political parties to discuss. There are lots of ways in which the
:42:10. > :42:14.impact of welfare reform can be made less worse. A lot of that is in the
:42:15. > :42:18.detail of the legislation and the regulations which has been handed
:42:19. > :42:22.back to Westminster. There is a little bit of ambiguity over how
:42:23. > :42:26.much influence the Assembly will have around that and how quickly
:42:27. > :42:29.those powers and advances will come back. We want to say that back as
:42:30. > :42:37.quickly as possible. What do you say to those people
:42:38. > :42:39.watching who think that benefits in Northern Ireland are better
:42:40. > :42:44.protected in Northern Ireland than anywhere else in the UK? There are
:42:45. > :42:53.other areas which could do very well with this extra money, schools,
:42:54. > :42:57.hospitals, education. We have done our bit. The mitigation is there for
:42:58. > :43:01.those in receipt of benefits, other alias needs to be with that and
:43:02. > :43:05.vulnerable people need hospital bed. That is right but the executive, the
:43:06. > :43:09.parties that signed up to fresh start, took the decision to cushion
:43:10. > :43:14.the blow to a certain level. Regardless of what being George
:43:15. > :43:18.Osborne calls at, if the parties are to honour what they set out to do in
:43:19. > :43:26.fresh start, the windfall, as you described it, needs to be retained
:43:27. > :43:31.to help the same people who will be affected are freshly bite reductions
:43:32. > :43:39.by another name and the delayed time. But this was a horror film,
:43:40. > :43:44.the director has decided there is going to be a costume change and the
:43:45. > :43:45.villain will come on later in the script but the end is just as gaudy
:43:46. > :43:52.as everyone was expecting, and even a little bit worse. You are nodding
:43:53. > :43:58.your head. Absolutely. This is a Tory Government waging war on the
:43:59. > :44:02.poor in Northern Ireland. If we have people driven to destitution we're
:44:03. > :44:08.going to have to put in services to protect them whether hospital
:44:09. > :44:10.appointments, food banks, one way or another we need to look after these
:44:11. > :44:17.people. And let's hear what Deirdre and Alex
:44:18. > :46:02.think. Most people listening are confused.
:46:03. > :46:03.Claims, counterclaims. This is our money. Most people listening are
:46:04. > :46:06.confused. Claims, counterclaims. This is ourmoney. . Most people
:46:07. > :46:08.listening areconfused. Claims, counterclaims. This is ourmoney. .
:46:09. > :46:09.Most peoplelistening areconfused. Claims,counterclaims. This is our
:46:10. > :47:21.money. . Who needs the money most? Most
:47:22. > :47:33.Jim Allister has told the TUV conference that the party will set
:47:34. > :47:35.He strongly criticised the Executive's record and said
:47:36. > :47:38.the TUV will make an issue of greed and squander during the campaign.
:47:39. > :47:43.Our Political Correspondent, Chris Page, was
:47:44. > :47:57.There is no doubt he makes a big impact.
:47:58. > :48:07.When the bags and wind farms are biting as eight of business.
:48:08. > :48:13.I on the ball and said I on the camera that would suit some of our
:48:14. > :48:23.ministers better. He to aim at what he described as the catastrophic
:48:24. > :48:35.failure of DUP, Sinn Fein rule. Enough is enough. Would you be
:48:36. > :48:44.expecting two or three or four? I am not putting numbers on it. 11 TUV
:48:45. > :48:53.candidates have been selected so far. The former chair of Ukip will
:48:54. > :49:02.stand in Southdown. You were associated with one party and note
:49:03. > :49:07.you are standing for another. TUV and Ukip have similar views on
:49:08. > :49:13.European issues. What makes the TUV different is that it has a positive
:49:14. > :49:21.message on the issue of the devolved Assembly. Conference speeches
:49:22. > :49:27.emphasise that the TUV fever voluntarily caution and opposition.
:49:28. > :49:37.Another issue was unit. The party wants the UK to leave the EU.
:49:38. > :49:43.Northern Ireland is not served well by the EU. We would have the money
:49:44. > :49:47.that we are presently paying end, millions and millions each week,
:49:48. > :49:51.have it back, and then decide our priorities. Some of those priorities
:49:52. > :49:56.would still be in Northern Ireland as part of the UK.
:49:57. > :50:01.In that debate as others the TUV voice wants to be as loud as
:50:02. > :50:07.possible. How he the volume will become all depend on how many MLAs
:50:08. > :50:10.they get in me. Chris Page among the party faithful
:50:11. > :50:12.at yesterday's TUV conference. More than a hundred world leaders
:50:13. > :50:15.are due in Paris this week for They're meeting to try to agree a
:50:16. > :50:20.deal to curb emissions and prevent Among them will be our Environment
:50:21. > :50:23.Minister, Mark H Durkan. But what difference can somewhere
:50:24. > :50:40.as small as Northern Ireland make? Northern Ireland is a small place.
:50:41. > :50:48.What impact can Mark H Durkan have? David Cameron once promised as the
:50:49. > :50:56.cleanest Government ever. He shot the Huskies a long time ago. He had
:50:57. > :50:59.been dismantling support for renewable energy and withdrawing
:51:00. > :51:04.from that leadership role. There is an increasing onus on the devolved
:51:05. > :51:11.parts of the UK to take up the mantle of leadership. When Mark goes
:51:12. > :51:15.to the conference he will not only contribute, but there is a deep
:51:16. > :51:23.learning that goes on for ministers who discover that the most desperate
:51:24. > :51:26.communities, cities and countries are beginning to transform their
:51:27. > :51:33.economies, responding to climate change. But also help mark with the
:51:34. > :51:38.groundwork he has been doing. He will be tabling paper at the
:51:39. > :51:41.executive and the next couple of days, reintroducing the idea of a
:51:42. > :51:45.climate change Bill for Northern Ireland with targets so that we will
:51:46. > :51:51.bring new momentum to the delivery of climate change performance, the
:51:52. > :51:55.transformation that needs to take place. If you were in a position to
:51:56. > :51:58.advise Mark H Durkan on what he should be saying is what they should
:51:59. > :52:03.be hoping to come home with what would that advice be? We need to
:52:04. > :52:07.think about climate change less as an environmental issue and think
:52:08. > :52:12.about it as an industrial transformation. We were once in the
:52:13. > :52:16.cockpit of the industrial revolution. Are going to be part the
:52:17. > :52:23.new industrial resolution that you transformation that is required? He
:52:24. > :52:29.will have to have news that touches on each of the sectors that are
:52:30. > :52:32.major contributors. Farmers have to become more efficient with
:52:33. > :52:37.application of nitrogen and fertilisers. We could embrace ideas
:52:38. > :52:42.like the circular economy. Resolve issues like fuel to but upgrading is
:52:43. > :52:47.essential accommodation. Copenhagen was the last big climate conference
:52:48. > :52:52.six years ago. It was a bit of a disappointment. It was dubbed by
:52:53. > :52:58.some critics as hopeless. Realistically what do you think
:52:59. > :53:04.world leaders in our own Mark Duggan and other environment ministers can
:53:05. > :53:08.hope to achieve? One of the lessons is that we have to emphasise more
:53:09. > :53:13.what we can do locally, from the state level and the city level.
:53:14. > :53:17.Leadership, even among civil society, there will be a march today
:53:18. > :53:21.at two o'clock for example, to support logical leaders in taking
:53:22. > :53:27.forward this agenda. But as a big difference this time. For past
:53:28. > :53:34.couple of years the parties to the convention have been tabling their
:53:35. > :53:39.indicative offers of emissions reductions, policies that will now
:53:40. > :53:46.be taken up in the negotiations. Readers will attend the start of the
:53:47. > :53:53.conference. We already know that the ambition is beginning to move as
:53:54. > :53:57.towards 2 degrees temperature goal. We have to do more. The hope to
:53:58. > :54:00.close that gap during the negotiations but it will not be left
:54:01. > :54:06.to the negotiators in Paris. The parties who are going there have
:54:07. > :54:13.some level of ambition. The other part of the climate Justice peace is
:54:14. > :54:19.the technology that the poorest of the poor need in order to adapt to
:54:20. > :54:23.emissions reductions. A big part of this is about transferring
:54:24. > :54:30.resources, helping those who are most exposed to climate change at
:54:31. > :54:32.the moment. The challenge is to get countries to set aside the specific
:54:33. > :54:36.interests and agendas for the glitter warble good and that is a
:54:37. > :54:43.challenge for a new industrial powerhouses like China and India but
:54:44. > :54:47.also for France, Germany, the UK and the US. It is not about setting
:54:48. > :54:53.aside interests, it is about aligning our interests with nature.
:54:54. > :55:00.You cannot go shoot with nature. Nature has to be aligned. Religious
:55:01. > :55:04.leaders are now tough thing about the rates of nature that has to be
:55:05. > :55:09.set alongside human rights in the context of climate justice. It is
:55:10. > :55:12.not one or the other. It is about aligning our priorities, he will
:55:13. > :55:16.upon the earth, with the needs of the Earth. We will see how that
:55:17. > :55:26.alignment takes place in Paris this week.
:55:27. > :55:33.Now look back at the week in 60 seconds.
:55:34. > :55:37.An extra ?240 million leader after the Chancellor's U-turn on tax
:55:38. > :55:45.credits cuts. The Chancellor has changed his mind completely. It is
:55:46. > :55:47.fantastic. The final Assembly lap for Peter Robinson and an unexpected
:55:48. > :55:58.sendoff. But that was not always like this. He was a total pain in
:55:59. > :56:07.the early days and now he is contributing hugely. Rare praise
:56:08. > :56:12.from the DUP for a Secretary of State. When they threatened tough to
:56:13. > :56:19.lose that she stood up to them. The Health Minister changed course after
:56:20. > :56:21.private care home closures. We pause and we reflect and we give
:56:22. > :56:28.consideration to what has been plus boards. And at Stormont to new faces
:56:29. > :56:36.were unveiled. Seamus Heaney and CS Lewis
:56:37. > :56:39.wrapping up Gareth Gordon's 60 Let's have a final chat with Deirdre
:56:40. > :56:50.and Alex. Were you surprised to see Peter
:56:51. > :56:56.Robinson getting a standing ovation from some members of Sinn Fein. It
:56:57. > :57:02.would be bizarre to have done the deal and then not to applaud. Only
:57:03. > :57:08.six months ago they were willing to do a deal. It is just a civil thing
:57:09. > :57:13.at moments like this to acknowledge the fact he has been nearer 40
:57:14. > :57:16.years, he has made a difference, the Assembly exists largely because of
:57:17. > :57:21.what Peter Robinson has done. It would've been nice to that. The
:57:22. > :57:29.Ulster Unionists refused to stand up or to clap. Who could have guessed
:57:30. > :57:34.that in a short space of time they wanted to deal with them? It seemed
:57:35. > :57:38.churlish. The leadership should have been acknowledged and was not. It
:57:39. > :57:42.did not cast them in a good light. Looking back area lies it was
:57:43. > :57:49.probably a decision. You both attended for professional reasons
:57:50. > :57:54.the TUV conference. I very, but the Jim Allister on display. He is
:57:55. > :57:58.always confident. He knows he is the best public Speaker in politics in
:57:59. > :58:00.Northern Ireland. The big challenge for the TUV is the best public
:58:01. > :58:05.Speaker in politics in Northern Ireland. The big challenge for the
:58:06. > :58:10.TUV as they that document the vast majority of people deep down do not
:58:11. > :58:14.believe that Jim Allister and TUV wanted to work. That'll be a
:58:15. > :58:18.problem. It was our arrival rousing speech, what we have come to expect
:58:19. > :58:21.from Jim Allister. They were saying they want to go back to direct rule
:58:22. > :58:26.and most commentators would say be careful what you wish for. Could the
:58:27. > :58:30.electricity or two for them come the election? It'll be tough for them.
:58:31. > :58:33.They are only standing 16 candidates. Two or three maximum.
:58:34. > :58:36.officers will be lost? We are going to let that question
:58:37. > :58:48.hang now. Thank you. Andrew. Sadly that is it for today because
:58:49. > :58:52.we have just been told we have been truncated to make way for live
:58:53. > :58:54.coverage of the Davis Cup tennis final here on BBC One. There is
:58:55. > :58:59.always next week! Remember - if it's Sunday,
:59:00. > :59:14.it's the Sunday Politics.