:00:36. > :00:39.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:41.Theresa May says she wants to help people who are
:00:42. > :00:44."just about managing" - so should she reverse
:00:45. > :00:47.George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people
:00:48. > :00:54.Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,
:00:55. > :00:57.says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.
:00:58. > :01:02.So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?
:01:03. > :01:07.Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation
:01:08. > :01:10.into her use of a private email server - is this the boost
:01:11. > :01:15.Donald Trump needed to reignite his chances of winning the White House?
:01:16. > :01:17.And coming up here - after her first speech as leader
:01:18. > :01:19.to the DUP Conference, we hear from Arlene Foster
:01:20. > :01:21.on Brexit, her swipe at the Irish Government,
:01:22. > :01:22.and her new name for the Opposition. Join me in half an hour.
:01:23. > :01:25.and her new name for the Opposition. Now it is just a question of
:01:26. > :01:31.building that runway with the political problems that lie ahead.
:01:32. > :01:33.And haunting the studio on this Halloween weekend,
:01:34. > :01:35.the most terrifying political panel in the business -
:01:36. > :01:39.Tim 'Ghost' Shipman, 'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and
:01:40. > :01:47.First this morning, two new models of car to be built,
:01:48. > :01:50.securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant in Sunderland and a further 28,000
:01:51. > :01:57.The news from Nissan on Thursday was seized on by Leave campaigners
:01:58. > :01:59.as evidence that the British economy is in rude health
:02:00. > :02:03.This morning, the Business Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked
:02:04. > :02:06.what assurances were given to the Japanese firm's bosses
:02:07. > :02:13.Well, it's in no-one's the interest for there to be tariff
:02:14. > :02:18.barriers to the continent and vice versa.
:02:19. > :02:22.So, what I said is that our objective would be to ensure that we
:02:23. > :02:27.have continued access to the markets in Europe and vice versa, without
:02:28. > :02:31.tariffs and without bureaucratic impediments.
:02:32. > :02:35.That is how we will approach those negotiations.
:02:36. > :02:37.We're joined now from Newcastle by the Shadow Business
:02:38. > :02:50.Welcome to the programme. Labour has been a bit sceptical about this
:02:51. > :02:54.Nissan decision. Can we begin by making it clear just what a great
:02:55. > :03:00.achievement this is, above all for the workers of Sunderland who have
:03:01. > :03:04.some of the highest productivity in the world, have never been on strike
:03:05. > :03:11.for 30 years, and produce cars of incredible quality. This is their
:03:12. > :03:14.victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are absolutely right. The Nissan plant
:03:15. > :03:19.in Sunderland is among the most productive in the world. The workers
:03:20. > :03:25.of Nissan are amongst the most productive as well. And it's really
:03:26. > :03:28.a victory for them and for the trade unions and the business
:03:29. > :03:31.organisations, and everybody who campaigned to make sure that the
:03:32. > :03:39.government couldn't ignore their future. It's our future. I'm the MP
:03:40. > :03:42.for Newcastle. It makes a huge difference to the region. We are a
:03:43. > :03:45.region that still likes to make things that work. It is a huge part
:03:46. > :03:52.of our advanced manufacturing sector. So it's really something we
:03:53. > :03:57.welcome as well as the job security. I'm glad we have got that on the
:03:58. > :04:01.record from the Labour shadow business secretary. But your Shadow
:04:02. > :04:05.Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims the government is ignoring
:04:06. > :04:10.manufacturers and cares only about a small banking elite. In what way is
:04:11. > :04:13.safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs in the North safeguarding a
:04:14. > :04:19.financial elite? As I said, we're really pleased that the campaigning
:04:20. > :04:22.by trade unions and the workforce, and business organisations, meant
:04:23. > :04:26.the government felt they couldn't ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be
:04:27. > :04:30.clear that we want that kind of job security for all of those working in
:04:31. > :04:35.manufacturing and in other sectors as well. And sweetheart deals for
:04:36. > :04:41.one company, no matter how important they are, that does not an
:04:42. > :04:48.industrial strategy make. Why'd you say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg
:04:49. > :04:51.Clark told the BBC this morning that what was assured to Nissan is an
:04:52. > :04:55.assurance he gives to the whole industrial sector? I was really
:04:56. > :05:01.pleased to see Greg Clark felt he had to say something, even though
:05:02. > :05:06.it's sad that we having our industrial strategy, you like, or
:05:07. > :05:11.our approach to Brexit delivered piecemeal to the media rather than
:05:12. > :05:15.to the British people and Nissan, actually. But he want published the
:05:16. > :05:19.letter. He said he has told us what is in the letter and that
:05:20. > :05:24.reassurances given on training, on science and on supporting the supply
:05:25. > :05:30.chain for the automated sector. You must be in favour all -- of all of
:05:31. > :05:35.that? We are in favour of an industrial strategy. Greg Clark,
:05:36. > :05:41.unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say industrial strategy. I'm still
:05:42. > :05:46.puzzling to find out what it is you disagree with. Let me put the
:05:47. > :05:52.question. You said the assurances he has given to Nissan are available to
:05:53. > :05:57.the car manufacturing sector in general and indeed to industry in
:05:58. > :06:02.general. What is your problem with that? Two things. Let him publish
:06:03. > :06:08.the letter so we can see that, let him have the transparency he's
:06:09. > :06:12.pretending to offer. But also, we need an industrial strategy that
:06:13. > :06:19.values -- that is values based and joined. He talked about electric
:06:20. > :06:24.cars and supporting green cars. That was in regard to Nissan. At the same
:06:25. > :06:29.time the government has slashed support for other areas of green
:06:30. > :06:36.technology. So what is it? That is not to do with the Nissan deal.
:06:37. > :06:39.Labour implied at some stage there was some financial inducement, some
:06:40. > :06:44.secret bribes, that doesn't seem to be the case. You are not claiming
:06:45. > :06:48.that any more -- any more. Then you claimed it was a sweetheart deal for
:06:49. > :06:56.one company. That turns out not to be the case. What criticism are you
:06:57. > :07:01.left with on this Nissan deal? I would be really surprised if all
:07:02. > :07:05.that Nissan got was the reassurances that Greg Clark is shared with us.
:07:06. > :07:11.He didn't answer the question of what happens if we can't get
:07:12. > :07:14.continued tariff free access to the single market, if we are not within
:07:15. > :07:20.the single market or the Customs Union. Do you really think a
:07:21. > :07:24.negotiator like Nissan, who are very good at negotiating, they would have
:07:25. > :07:29.excepted making this significant investment without some further
:07:30. > :07:32.reassurances? Do you think there is some kind of financial bride and if
:07:33. > :07:37.so what is the evidence? I would like to see the letter published and
:07:38. > :07:42.I would also like to understand what would happen... There are 27
:07:43. > :07:48.countries which need to agree with the deal we have from Brexit. What
:07:49. > :07:53.will Nissan, how will Nissan remain competitive? How will the automotive
:07:54. > :07:58.industry remain competitive? Greg Clark says he reassured them on
:07:59. > :08:06.that. But how will that be so if we do not get access? We haven't heard
:08:07. > :08:10.anything about that. He talks about reassurances given to Nissan. We
:08:11. > :08:14.need to make -- to know where we're going to make sure Brexit is in the
:08:15. > :08:18.interest of all workers, not only those who work for a Nissan and not
:08:19. > :08:24.only those who can get the attention of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan
:08:25. > :08:28.that Britain would remain a competitive place to do business.
:08:29. > :08:31.That was the main assurance he gave them. He would help with skills and
:08:32. > :08:37.infrastructure and all the rest. Since you are -- intend to repeal
:08:38. > :08:41.the trade union laws that have made strikes in Britain largely a thing
:08:42. > :08:43.of the past, and you plan to raise corporation tax, you couldn't give
:08:44. > :08:50.Nissan the same assurance, could you? We could absolutely give Nissan
:08:51. > :08:53.the assurance that we will be, our vision of the future of the UK, is
:08:54. > :09:06.based on having a strong manufacturing sector. Repealing
:09:07. > :09:09.trade union laws? As we have seen at Nissan, the industrial sector is
:09:10. > :09:16.dependent on having highly trained, well skilled workers. -- highly
:09:17. > :09:21.skilled, well-trained. You don't have that by getting -- having an
:09:22. > :09:25.aggressive policy and trade union laws or by slashing corporation tax
:09:26. > :09:28.and not supporting manufacturing investment. Remember, the last
:09:29. > :09:34.government took away the Manufacturing allowances which
:09:35. > :09:38.supported Manufacturing and slashed corporation tax. That is their
:09:39. > :09:44.solution. It is a low tax, low skill economy they want.
:09:45. > :09:48.Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you. I'm grateful for you joining us.
:09:49. > :09:56.I'm still struggling to see what is left of Labour's criticism? Yeah,
:09:57. > :10:00.except for this. This was a valid point she just made. What we know
:10:01. > :10:06.for sure is that Greg Clark could say to Nissan, my aim is to get
:10:07. > :10:10.tariff free deal. There is no way he could guarantee that. None of us
:10:11. > :10:18.know that. I don't think that was enough. I think clearly there was a
:10:19. > :10:22.more detailed package involving training and other things. He has
:10:23. > :10:26.acknowledged this, albeit we do not know the precise mechanism. What I
:10:27. > :10:29.think is interesting about this is if you reverse what happened this
:10:30. > :10:32.week, at a time when the government says Britain is open for business
:10:33. > :10:37.and it is going to have an industrial strategy, so far it is a
:10:38. > :10:42.bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't made this commitment. Imagine what
:10:43. > :10:45.would have happened? It is an impossible scenario. The government
:10:46. > :10:51.seems to me was obliged to make sure this didn't happen. Let's not forget
:10:52. > :10:55.Nissan has invested hundreds of millions in the north-east. It has
:10:56. > :10:59.been a huge success story. When I spoke to workers from Nissan, they
:11:00. > :11:03.were so proud because they went to Japan to teach the Japanese had to
:11:04. > :11:07.be more productive. The idea that Nissan was just going to walk away
:11:08. > :11:12.from this given its track record, its importance, wasn't really
:11:13. > :11:16.credible. The government had some bargaining chips. Absolutely, of
:11:17. > :11:21.course they weren't going to walk away. The majority of people in the
:11:22. > :11:26.area in which Nissan is braced -- based, voted for Brexit. Nissan
:11:27. > :11:29.knows it is in a powerful position because it is an emotive sector.
:11:30. > :11:33.Clearly the government didn't want to have some big showdown. I
:11:34. > :11:39.honestly don't think this is a smoking gun. The Labour Shadow
:11:40. > :11:42.minister really struggled to articulate what exactly she thinks
:11:43. > :11:47.the government is hiding. I think the reassurances were given were
:11:48. > :11:50.pretty anodyne, really. They were anodyne and general. And what Greg
:11:51. > :11:54.Clark was setting out was an objective and he made the right
:11:55. > :11:58.noises, and Nissan exercised its right to sabre rattle. It does have
:11:59. > :12:03.a history of doing that. The one thing that would now be clear given
:12:04. > :12:06.Greg Clark's performance this morning on the BBC, is that if we
:12:07. > :12:11.were to discover some kind of financial incentive directly linked
:12:12. > :12:16.to this investment, not more for skills or infrastructure, that is
:12:17. > :12:19.fine, but some direct financial investment, compensation for
:12:20. > :12:22.tariffs, which would be illegal under World Trade Organisation
:12:23. > :12:27.rules, what you might call a financial bride, the sect -- the
:12:28. > :12:32.business Secretary's position would be untenable? He would be in a very
:12:33. > :12:36.difficult position indeed. Just released the letter. There is
:12:37. > :12:39.nothing to hide. Put it out there. The most revealing thing is that
:12:40. > :12:44.people are getting wildly excited about the fact Greg Clark announced
:12:45. > :12:49.Britain's negotiating position would be that we would like tariff free
:12:50. > :12:52.trade with Europe. This is regarded as an insight into what this comment
:12:53. > :12:54.is doing and it says a great deal about how little we have been told
:12:55. > :13:00.in Parliament and the media about what they are up. Do you think it is
:13:01. > :13:08.exciting we are going for tariff free trade? We're easily excited
:13:09. > :13:12.these days. We don't know. This is where these things are at such a
:13:13. > :13:15.tentative phase. We don't know how the rest of the European Union is
:13:16. > :13:23.going to respond to Britain's negotiating hand. We know Britain
:13:24. > :13:29.once the best of everything, please. It is a starting point. But that is
:13:30. > :13:30.not how it is going to end up. We are getting wider than that. We have
:13:31. > :13:32.will have to see. Now, Universal Credit,
:13:33. > :13:34.a single payment made to welfare claimants that would roll together
:13:35. > :13:37.a plethora of benefits whilst encouraging people into work
:13:38. > :13:40.by making work pay. But have cuts to the flagship
:13:41. > :13:42.welfare scheme reduced work incentives and hit the incomes
:13:43. > :13:47.of the least well-off? Well, some of the government's
:13:48. > :13:50.own MPs think so, and, as Mark Lobel reports,
:13:51. > :13:56.want the cuts reversed. Theresa May says she wants
:13:57. > :13:59.a country that works for everyone, that's on the side
:14:00. > :14:03.of ordinary, working people. It means never writing off people
:14:04. > :14:06.who can work and consigning them to a life on benefits,
:14:07. > :14:09.but giving them the chance to go out and earn a living and to enjoy
:14:10. > :14:12.the dignity that comes But now some in her party
:14:13. > :14:18.are worried that the low earners will be hit by changes
:14:19. > :14:23.to Universal Credit benefit system originally set up to encourage
:14:24. > :14:25.more people into work. We also need to focus tax credits
:14:26. > :14:28.and Universal Credit Concern centred on the Government's
:14:29. > :14:35.decision in the July 2015 budget to find ?3 billion worth of savings
:14:36. > :14:44.from the Universal Credit bill. Conservative MP Heidi Allen
:14:45. > :14:47.is working on a campaign to get MPs in her party to urge
:14:48. > :14:55.the Prime Minister to think again. I want her to understand for herself
:14:56. > :14:57.what the outcomes might be if we press ahead
:14:58. > :14:59.with the Universal Credit, Do you think Theresa May, right now,
:15:00. > :15:04.understands what you understand? To be fair, unless you really
:15:05. > :15:06.get into the detail, and I have through my work
:15:07. > :15:09.on the Work and Pensions Select Committee, I don't
:15:10. > :15:11.think anybody does. Independent economic analysts
:15:12. > :15:17.at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan that cuts to Universal Credit weaken
:15:18. > :15:21.incentives to work. One of the key parts
:15:22. > :15:23.of the Universal Credit system That is how much you can
:15:24. > :15:27.earn before your credit As the Government has
:15:28. > :15:30.sought to save money, both under the Coalition and now
:15:31. > :15:32.they Conservative Government, both under the Coalition and now
:15:33. > :15:34.the Conservative Government, that work allowance has been cut,
:15:35. > :15:37.time and time again. The biggest cuts happened
:15:38. > :15:39.in the summer budget of 2015. That basically reduces the amount
:15:40. > :15:42.of earnings you get to keep It weakens the incentive people have
:15:43. > :15:45.to move into work. What do changes to the Universal
:15:46. > :15:48.Credit system mean? The Resolution Foundation think-tank
:15:49. > :15:50.has crunched the numbers. If you compare what would have
:15:51. > :15:54.happened before the July 2015 summer budget to what will happen by 2020,
:15:55. > :15:57.even if you take into account gains in the National Living Wage
:15:58. > :16:00.and income tax cuts, recipients will be hit
:16:01. > :16:05.by annual deductions. Couples and parents would receive,
:16:06. > :16:08.on average, ?1000 less. A dual-earning couple with two
:16:09. > :16:10.children under four, with one partner working full-time
:16:11. > :16:13.on ?10.50 an hour and the other working part-time on the minimum
:16:14. > :16:16.wage for around 20 hours a week, they would
:16:17. > :16:23.receive ?1800 less. Hit most by the changes
:16:24. > :16:26.would be a single parent with a child under four,
:16:27. > :16:28.working full-time I think, if I'm honest,
:16:29. > :16:42.it is unrealistic, given the economic climate,
:16:43. > :16:44.to expect everything to be reversed. What I would like to see
:16:45. > :16:50.is an increase in the work allowances to those people
:16:51. > :16:53.who will be hardest hit. That is single parents and second
:16:54. > :16:56.earners hoping to return to work, because they are the people we need
:16:57. > :16:58.to absolutely make The Sunday Politics understands that
:16:59. > :17:03.about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs are pushing for changes ahead
:17:04. > :17:07.of the Autumn Statement. A former cabinet minister told us
:17:08. > :17:10.that they believed further impact analysis should be done to find out
:17:11. > :17:13.if any mitigation measures Former Work and Pensions Secretary
:17:14. > :17:19.Iain Duncan Smith, an architect of the system, now says
:17:20. > :17:24.the cuts should be reversed. But his former department has told
:17:25. > :17:28.us that it has no plans to revisit the work allowance changes announced
:17:29. > :17:33.in the budget last year. What I would say to Heidi Allen
:17:34. > :17:37.and IDS, they got it right the first time and they should stick
:17:38. > :17:40.to the vote they cast last year, because these reforms actually
:17:41. > :17:41.do make sense. What interests me is the fact
:17:42. > :17:44.we are trying to move people off welfare into work,
:17:45. > :17:47.we are raising the wages people earn by massively increasing
:17:48. > :17:49.the minimum wage and this People are coming off
:17:50. > :17:52.welfare and into work. Campaigners are pushing for savings
:17:53. > :17:55.to come from other areas to relieve The other thing we have to start
:17:56. > :18:01.looking at is the triple Financially it has been a great
:18:02. > :18:05.policy, and it was absolutely right that we lifted pensioners
:18:06. > :18:07.who were significantly behind, for many years, in terms of income
:18:08. > :18:10.levels, but they have I think it is time for us to look
:18:11. > :18:15.at that policy again, because is costing us an awful
:18:16. > :18:17.lot of money. With just over three weeks to wait
:18:18. > :18:20.until the Conservative leadership's new economic plan is unveiled
:18:21. > :18:23.in the Autumn Statement, its top team is under pressure
:18:24. > :18:27.from within its own ranks to use it And I'm joined now by former Work
:18:28. > :18:43.and Pensions Secretary, Welcome back to the programme.
:18:44. > :18:48.Theresa May said she is on the side of the just managing, the working
:18:49. > :18:52.poor. But they are about to be hit from all sides. Their modest living
:18:53. > :18:55.standards are going to be squeezed as inflation overtakes pay rises,
:18:56. > :18:59.they will be further squeezed because top-up benefits in work are
:19:00. > :19:03.frozen. Incentives to work are going to be reduced by the cuts in
:19:04. > :19:09.universal benefits. So much for being on the side of those just
:19:10. > :19:16.managing? Theresa was right to focus on this group. The definition has to
:19:17. > :19:20.be the bottom half, in economic terms, of the social structure. It
:19:21. > :19:23.doesn't look good for them? This is the point I am making, it is an
:19:24. > :19:26.opportunity to put some of this right. One of the reasons I resigned
:19:27. > :19:29.in March is because I felt the direction of travel we had been
:19:30. > :19:33.going in had been to take far too much money out of that group of
:19:34. > :19:37.people when there are other areas which, if you need to make some of
:19:38. > :19:41.those savings, you can. The key bit is that the group needs to be helped
:19:42. > :19:45.through into work and encouraged to stay in work. There was a report
:19:46. > :19:49.done with the IFS, when we were there, at Universal Credit. It said
:19:50. > :19:54.Universal Credit rolled out, as it should have been before the cuts,
:19:55. > :19:58.people would be much more likely to stay in work longer and earn more
:19:59. > :20:03.money. It is a net positive, but that is now called into question.
:20:04. > :20:06.Let's unpick some of the detail, but first, do you accept the words of
:20:07. > :20:11.David Willets? It says on the basis of the things I read out to you that
:20:12. > :20:19.the just managing face a significant and painful cut in real terms if we
:20:20. > :20:26.continue on the way we are going. I do, in essence. That is the reason
:20:27. > :20:31.why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised that issue as well, that we got the
:20:32. > :20:34.balance wrong. It is right that pensioners get to a certain point,
:20:35. > :20:40.when they are on a level par, doing the right thing over five years.
:20:41. > :20:48.Staying with that process has cost us ?18 billion extra this year, in
:20:49. > :20:53.total. It will go on costing another 5 billion. Then there is the issue
:20:54. > :20:56.of tax allowances. I want to remind you and viewers what David Cameron
:20:57. > :21:03.told the Conservative conference in 2009. If you are a single mother
:21:04. > :21:08.with two children, earning ?150 a week, the withdrawal of your
:21:09. > :21:14.benefits and the additional taxes that you pay me on that for every
:21:15. > :21:21.extra you earn, you keep just 4p. What kind of incentive is that? 30
:21:22. > :21:28.years ago, this party won and election fighting against 98% tax
:21:29. > :21:34.rates for the Rex richest. I want us today to show even more anger about
:21:35. > :21:40.96% tax rates for the very poorest in our country. Real anger, and
:21:41. > :21:46.effective rate of over 90%. Universal Credit reduces that. Some
:21:47. > :21:51.will still face, as they lose benefits and pay tax, a marginal
:21:52. > :21:55.rate of over 75%. That is still too high? Yes, it is the collision
:21:56. > :21:59.between those going into work at the moment they start paying tax. A
:22:00. > :22:05.racial Universal Credit is set at 65%. You can call that the base
:22:06. > :22:10.marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will face 75%? That is the point about
:22:11. > :22:14.why the allowances are so important. The point about the allowances which
:22:15. > :22:18.viewers might not fully understand is that it was set, as part of
:22:19. > :22:21.Universal Credit, to allow you to get certain people, with certain
:22:22. > :22:28.difficulties, as they cross into work, to retain more benefit before
:22:29. > :22:32.it is tapered away as they go up in hours. A lone parent, who might have
:22:33. > :22:35.various issues, you want her to have a bigger incentive than a single
:22:36. > :22:39.person that does not have the same commitments. It is structured so
:22:40. > :22:42.that somebody who has difficulty going to work, they all have
:22:43. > :22:45.slightly different rates. What happened is that last year a
:22:46. > :22:50.decision was taken to reduce tax credits, and, on the back of that,
:22:51. > :22:56.to reduce allowances. I believe, given everything that happened now,
:22:57. > :22:59.we need to restore that to the point where it helps those people crossing
:23:00. > :23:01.over. You say a decision was taken, it was a decision by the former
:23:02. > :23:07.Chancellor George Osborne in the summer budget. Other decisions were
:23:08. > :23:11.taken in successive Budgets to raise the Universal Credit budget, which
:23:12. > :23:14.resulted in the disincentive being higher than many people wanted. Do
:23:15. > :23:19.you accept that has been the consequence of his decisions? I was
:23:20. > :23:22.in the Government, we take collective responsibility. I argued
:23:23. > :23:26.this was not the right way to go, but when you are in you have to stay
:23:27. > :23:28.with it if you lose that argument. There was another attempt before the
:23:29. > :23:33.spending review last year to increase the taper, so the marginal
:23:34. > :23:39.rate would have gone up. I managed to stop that. I'm Sibley saying,
:23:40. > :23:43.what we made as a decision last year, given the circumstances and
:23:44. > :23:46.given that the net effect of all of that, I think it is time for the
:23:47. > :23:52.Government to ask the question, if we are in this to help that group of
:23:53. > :23:54.people, Universal Credit is singularly the most powerful tool.
:23:55. > :24:00.One of the Argentine aid in the paper published on Thursday, we are
:24:01. > :24:05.set going on doing two more races of the tax threshold, taking more
:24:06. > :24:10.people out of tax. That has a diminishing effect on the bottom
:24:11. > :24:14.section. Only 25p in that tax rate will help any of those. Most of it
:24:15. > :24:19.goes to middle income? You and I will benefit more from that. With
:24:20. > :24:23.Universal Credit, every pound you put into that will go to the bottom
:24:24. > :24:27.five tenths. That is why I designed it like that. He pressed the button
:24:28. > :24:32.and immediately start to changed circumstances. Should the cuts in
:24:33. > :24:35.Universal Credit that Mr Osborne introduced, against your argument,
:24:36. > :24:40.should they be reversed? I believe so. I believe you can do it even if
:24:41. > :24:43.there is concern about spending. I don't believe you need to go through
:24:44. > :24:53.with the continuing raise the tax threshold. Cost is dependent on
:24:54. > :24:57.inflation, but give or take. It is in the Tory manifesto? Has more than
:24:58. > :25:01.doubled. What is in the manifesto, and Lasse Prime Minister made this
:25:02. > :25:06.clear in conference, we want to improve the life chances of people.
:25:07. > :25:10.Today's announcement on the Green paper is what I wrote over the last
:25:11. > :25:14.two and a half years. Big changes necessary to how we deal with
:25:15. > :25:18.sickness benefit. That can now be done because of Universal Credit,
:25:19. > :25:22.because people can go back to work and it tapers away their benefits.
:25:23. > :25:26.It is the most powerful tool to sort our people that live in poverty,
:25:27. > :25:30.Universal Credit. We need to make sure it lands positively. If Mr
:25:31. > :25:35.Osborne's cuts were reversed, what you and some of your backbench Tory
:25:36. > :25:40.colleagues want to do, how would that improve the incentives of the
:25:41. > :25:44.working poor, as they try to get on in life? They have to pay more tax,
:25:45. > :25:51.they lose some benefits. How would it improve it? Would many still face
:25:52. > :25:55.a 75% rate? The key question is, first and foremost, as people move
:25:56. > :25:59.through income to the point where they are getting taxed, that group
:26:00. > :26:03.will be enormously benefited by the re-emergence of these allowances at
:26:04. > :26:09.the right level. That is what the IFS have said, that is what the
:26:10. > :26:12.Resolution Foundation are saying, and the Centre For Social Justice is
:26:13. > :26:16.saying. You have to get that group, because they are most likely to be
:26:17. > :26:21.drifting into poverty and less incomes are right. Would it help
:26:22. > :26:27.those who face a 75% margin? We don't face that. Exactly right.
:26:28. > :26:35.People much poorer than us do. I would love to get the marginal rate
:26:36. > :26:39.down to testify percent, and lower,. -- down to 65%. It is a balance of
:26:40. > :26:44.how you spend the money. I would prefer to do that rather than
:26:45. > :26:51.necessarily go ahead with threshold razors. I think the coronation of
:26:52. > :26:55.the marginal reduction of 65%, getting it down to 60%, plus more
:26:56. > :26:58.allowances, will allow Universal Credit to get to the group that is
:26:59. > :27:03.going to be, and the report written by the IFS and ourselves, it shows
:27:04. > :27:07.it is going to be the most dynamic and direct ability of a Government
:27:08. > :27:13.to be able to influence the way that people improve their incomes in the
:27:14. > :27:19.bottom five deciles. Would you take on extra work if you knew you were
:27:20. > :27:23.going to lose 75% of it? Even 65%? This has been my argument all along.
:27:24. > :27:28.Universal Credit can help that enormously. One point that goes
:27:29. > :27:32.missing, 70% of the bottom five deciles will be on Universal Credit.
:27:33. > :27:35.Whatever change you make to Universal Credit has a dramatic and
:27:36. > :27:41.immediate effect I am arguing, genuinely, it is time to rethink
:27:42. > :27:45.this. The Prime Minister wants to make this a priority. I am
:27:46. > :27:49.completely with her on this. I think she made a really good start. To
:27:50. > :27:54.deliver this, we need to... You have a lot of work to do to deliver it.
:27:55. > :28:00.Because it is a manifesto commitment, or because they want to
:28:01. > :28:03.do it, stopping increasing the personal allowances are not
:28:04. > :28:05.acceptable, what about bringing to an end, by the end of the
:28:06. > :28:12.parliament, the pension triple lock that pensioners enjoy to improve and
:28:13. > :28:18.put more money to the working poor? What about that? Well, you are
:28:19. > :28:22.absolutely right that there is now the danger, I think, of a mess
:28:23. > :28:26.balance between the generations. Quite rightly at the beginning, when
:28:27. > :28:32.we came in, we have a commitment as a Conservative Party in a manifesto
:28:33. > :28:36.to get pensions back onto earnings. It was moved to a triple lock that
:28:37. > :28:41.guaranteed a minimum. What about ending up now? I understand it is a
:28:42. > :28:44.promise through the Parliament, but after 2020? I am in favour of
:28:45. > :28:48.getting it back to innings and allowing it to rise at reasonable
:28:49. > :28:54.levels. Moving from earnings to the triple lock has cost ?18 billion
:28:55. > :28:57.this year. Here was a high, under pressure, as the Government was
:28:58. > :29:01.scratching around to pay more money out of working age areas, when the
:29:02. > :29:05.budget was almost out of control on the pension side. I'm in favour of
:29:06. > :29:09.helping pensioners, but now they are up to a reasonable level, at a
:29:10. > :29:13.steady rate, that can be afforded by Government, which takes the pressure
:29:14. > :29:15.off, working age people have to pay for that. In years to come, time to
:29:16. > :29:29.end the triple lock and use the savings to help these
:29:30. > :29:32.people we have been talking about? As part of a load of packages, yes.
:29:33. > :29:33.It would also help with the intergenerational fairness argument.
:29:34. > :29:36.Thank you for being with us. Now, a prominent London Imam
:29:37. > :29:38.called Shakeel Begg - who is Chief Imam the Lewisham
:29:39. > :29:41.Islamic Centre - is an extremist. That was the verdict of the judge
:29:42. > :29:44.in a libel action that Mr Begg took against the BBC, after we described
:29:45. > :29:47.him as an Islamic extremist Mr Begg had complained about a short
:29:48. > :29:51.segment in an interview in November 2013 with Farooq Murad,
:29:52. > :29:54.the then head of the Muslim Council of Britain, an organisation
:29:55. > :29:56.which claims to represent British In that interview, we described
:29:57. > :30:02.Mr Begg as an extremist speaker who had hailed jihad
:30:03. > :30:05.is the greatest of deeds. From his base of the Lewisham
:30:06. > :30:08.Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been involved in a number of community
:30:09. > :30:12.organisations, including the Police Independent
:30:13. > :30:15.Advisory Group in Lewisham, Lewisham Council's Advisory Council
:30:16. > :30:20.on Religious Education and as a volunteer chaplain
:30:21. > :30:22.at Lewisham Hospital. But in his judgment,
:30:23. > :30:28.Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character
:30:29. > :30:31.- a trusted figure in his local community, but when talking
:30:32. > :30:34.to predominantly Muslim audiences he shed the cloak of respectability
:30:35. > :30:39.and revealed the horns of extremism. The judge cited one speech made
:30:40. > :30:42.by Mr Begg at a rally outside Belmarsh Prisonm-
:30:43. > :30:45.the high security prison that houses terrorists -
:30:46. > :30:48.as particularly sinister. The judge said the imam
:30:49. > :30:51.was expressing admiration and praise Following Friday's judgment,
:30:52. > :30:57.the hospital trust have told us that Mr Begg's status as a voluntary
:30:58. > :31:01.chaplain has been terminated. We have been told by
:31:02. > :31:05.Lewisham Council he is no longer on their Religious
:31:06. > :31:06.Education Committee. The Metropolitan Police
:31:07. > :31:08.have confirmed that Mr Begg remains a member
:31:09. > :31:13.of their Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham, as well as
:31:14. > :31:25.the borough's faith group. I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief
:31:26. > :31:33.executive of the Quilliam Foundation. Welcome to the
:31:34. > :31:36.programme. I have here in my hand a statement from the trustees of the
:31:37. > :31:41.Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject the judge's ruling as fanciful and
:31:42. > :31:46.say they are unequivocal and unwavering in their support of
:31:47. > :31:51.Shakeel Begg as their head imam. What do you make of that? To be
:31:52. > :31:56.honest, it doesn't surprise me. At the end of the day he is only the
:31:57. > :32:01.imam of that mosque because he belongs to the same theological
:32:02. > :32:04.fundamentalist views that the mosque would portray. If they were to say
:32:05. > :32:09.he was an extremist, they would be saying in fact that they have
:32:10. > :32:13.allowed extremist preaching and extremist theology within their
:32:14. > :32:21.walls. I think this is a very important decision and a very
:32:22. > :32:25.important judgment by the judge. First of all, these people like to
:32:26. > :32:30.operate in a linear, under a veneer of respectability. When that veneer
:32:31. > :32:34.is taken away, there are a number of things that can happen. First of
:32:35. > :32:41.all, the BBC did very well to stand by their guns and say, we're not
:32:42. > :32:44.going to be intimidated by somebody who is threatening to taking -- to
:32:45. > :32:49.take us to court for potential libel. Many other media companies
:32:50. > :32:54.have done that in the past and people have capitulated. Also, this
:32:55. > :32:59.has exposed him. Legally now, here's some deal can be classified as an
:33:00. > :33:03.extremist preacher, somebody who promotes religious violence. I think
:33:04. > :33:08.the mosque really needs to take a step back and say, how we part of
:33:09. > :33:11.the problem that we are facing within society? Or are we going to
:33:12. > :33:20.be part of the solution? It really concerns me. The High Court judge
:33:21. > :33:26.says that Mr Begg's speeches were consistent with an extremist
:33:27. > :33:35.Salafist is the most worldview. What is Salafist is and how widespread is
:33:36. > :33:42.it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It comes from the Middle East. It is
:33:43. > :33:49.from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for them was the old colonial Ottoman
:33:50. > :33:53.Empire. There is the quiet Salafist to get some with their lives, lives
:33:54. > :33:57.outside society. There is a revolutionary who tries to convert
:33:58. > :34:04.other people to their worldview. And then there is the Salafist jihad
:34:05. > :34:07.ease. People like Islamic State etc. We have seen of increased in recent
:34:08. > :34:13.decades because of money that has, growing from the Middle East. When
:34:14. > :34:17.that is mixed with a political ideology, it becomes potent. Do we
:34:18. > :34:22.have a political -- particular problem in Britain with this in our
:34:23. > :34:26.mosques? Absolutely. Without the theology that says hate the other,
:34:27. > :34:30.hate other Muslims, that excommunicate other people, that
:34:31. > :34:35.says it is OK to fight and is good to fight when you have got an enemy,
:34:36. > :34:40.we wouldn't really have a jihadi problem. Really that is something we
:34:41. > :34:45.have to tackle. The number of mosques and institutions supporting
:34:46. > :34:51.Salafist and Islam is has been on the increase. Do we have a problem
:34:52. > :34:55.with what the judge called Jekyll and Hyde characters who hide their
:34:56. > :35:02.extremism except when they are speaking to specific groups?
:35:03. > :35:06.Absolutely. One of the things we have focused on in the past, a
:35:07. > :35:10.number of hate preachers now in prison, people like Anjem Choudary,
:35:11. > :35:14.and everybody focused on them. But there is a range of people operating
:35:15. > :35:19.under that level. People who will show one face to the community
:35:20. > :35:23.because they actually need that for a respectability. They need that for
:35:24. > :35:25.a legitimacy. They need that to operate. When they are behind closed
:35:26. > :35:29.doors and talking to their doors and talking to their
:35:30. > :35:35.constitution, that is when you will see the real face of what these
:35:36. > :35:38.people believe. It is an increasing phenomenon. We are seeing it more.
:35:39. > :35:46.And we're going to carry on seeing it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque
:35:47. > :35:50.stuck by him, but given the clarity of the judge's ruling, are you
:35:51. > :35:55.surprised that the Metropolitan police would wish to continue with
:35:56. > :35:58.Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm absolutely shocked that that
:35:59. > :36:04.decision. What Uzzy going to do? Advise them on how to deal with
:36:05. > :36:06.extremist preachers and promote religiously motivated violence? I
:36:07. > :36:12.don't know what he's going to advise them on. Because we now have a judge
:36:13. > :36:15.that has ruled against him and actually classified him as an
:36:16. > :36:20.extremist and somebody who promotes religious violence, we actually have
:36:21. > :36:25.a possibility for the CPS to actually prosecute him. There is a
:36:26. > :36:28.law that has been in place since 2005 called religiously motivated
:36:29. > :36:33.violence. If he has been classified as somebody who promotes this, there
:36:34. > :36:37.is a potential for the CPS to prosecute. I want to called into
:36:38. > :36:41.question other organisations, interfaith organisations, other
:36:42. > :36:47.Muslims groups, who say they want to fight extremism, I call on them to
:36:48. > :36:56.say, this guy is an extremist preacher, we should cut our ties
:36:57. > :37:00.from him. This was a very high risk strategy by the BBC. The exposure
:37:01. > :37:06.could have been over ?1.5 million of licence payers money. Will this make
:37:07. > :37:13.it more difficult for Jekyll and Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg
:37:14. > :37:16.has behaved? Absolutely. It will do. One of the things they will now have
:37:17. > :37:23.to make sure is that they are a lot more careful. Careful with what they
:37:24. > :37:28.say to their own constituency. It won't solve the theological problem.
:37:29. > :37:32.But it will actually stop other people from operating in this manner
:37:33. > :37:36.and allow other media organisations to have the confidence to expose
:37:37. > :37:38.them when they do. Haras Rafiq, thank you for joining us.
:37:39. > :37:40.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:41. > :37:43.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:37:44. > :37:55.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:37:56. > :37:57.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:37:58. > :38:00.Arlene Foster felt the love of the DUP party faithful yesterday
:38:01. > :38:03.as she delivered her first conference speech as leader -
:38:04. > :38:08.but there was no love lost as she hit out
:38:09. > :38:10.at the Ulster Unionists, the SDLP and here,
:38:11. > :38:13.Their representatives are sent out around the world to talk
:38:14. > :38:21.down our economy and to attempt to poach our investors.
:38:22. > :38:24.And with their thoughts on all of that and more,
:38:25. > :38:26.my guests of the day are the News Letter's Political Correspondent,
:38:27. > :38:35.Sam McBride, and fellow journalist, Suzanne Breen.
:38:36. > :38:39.So, Arlene Foster's first conference as DUP leader has come and gone.
:38:40. > :38:42.Predictably there were attacks on the Ulster Unionist
:38:43. > :38:43.and SDLP leaders - who were re-christened
:38:44. > :38:46.Less predictably, perhaps, Mrs Foster launched a broadside
:38:47. > :38:53.But perhaps least surprising of all - no attack in the leader's
:38:54. > :38:56.speech on Sinn Fein - how times have changed.
:38:57. > :38:58.Our Political Correspondent, Gareth Gordon, was there
:38:59. > :39:19.Just a few final touches... This time to claim the ovation. In less
:39:20. > :39:31.than a year, Arlene Foster has made the DUP her owner. Regarded as the
:39:32. > :39:37.party's main asset with the voters. She soon find a way of describing
:39:38. > :39:42.her rival, Mike Nesbitt and his ally, Colin Eastwood. Steptoe and
:39:43. > :39:47.son were a very odd couple. Actually, the similarities are
:39:48. > :39:53.amazing. One was an older bitter man, the other was a frustrated
:39:54. > :40:00.younger man. They had to live together but they never got on. And
:40:01. > :40:05.they made a life selling junk to the public! There was no mention of our
:40:06. > :40:11.partners in the Executive, Sinn Fein. But a dig at the Irish
:40:12. > :40:16.Government. While they seek to take the views from Northern Ireland on
:40:17. > :40:21.Brexit, their representatives are sent out around the world to talk to
:40:22. > :40:26.our economy and to attempt to poach our investors. Now, it is clear,
:40:27. > :40:31.conference, at the one place that a hard border does exist is in the
:40:32. > :40:37.mind of the Irish Government. Deputy said another election could be
:40:38. > :40:41.close. The temptation for the Prime Minister to call early general
:40:42. > :40:49.election is, I have to say, strong and growing. Our party is making
:40:50. > :40:53.preparations for such an eventuality. The DUP latest recruits
:40:54. > :40:57.from the Ulster Unionists try to look at home, even if they have not
:40:58. > :41:02.always been conned an their new party. This time last year, you
:41:03. > :41:13.treated the picture of the North Korean litre... The cut and thrust
:41:14. > :41:20.of politics. It is harassing today? I don't think so. Is the DUP not
:41:21. > :41:24.confining you? The DUP can accommodate Sammy Wilson, so can
:41:25. > :41:30.accommodate me. What was the verdict on Arlene Foster's press conference
:41:31. > :41:34.as DPP leader? It's difficult for the DUP to attack their partners in
:41:35. > :41:38.Government. The Irish Government is an easy target. The irony is that
:41:39. > :41:42.the Ulster Unionist Party cosying up to the test DUP, that was a line of
:41:43. > :41:46.attack and yet it is the DUP sharing power with the historic enemy. What
:41:47. > :41:51.was the verdict from the third? Very good. She will do well. She is
:41:52. > :41:57.absolutely out of this world. Love her to bits. Very good. They have to
:41:58. > :42:05.top Ian Paisley. Not as good as Ian Paisley? Format not yet. She is
:42:06. > :42:09.leading the Ulster people and we thank Doctor Paisley for his
:42:10. > :42:16.leadership and Peter Robinson. What does she have to do? More
:42:17. > :42:22.interaction with people. She has been around the country and visiting
:42:23. > :42:27.all borders. She's not Ian Paisley. It just goes to show, you cannot be
:42:28. > :42:29.complacent. This was a lap of honour for Arlene Foster but she will no
:42:30. > :42:33.more hard work lies ahead. Gareth Gordon on the conference
:42:34. > :42:35.floor with the party faithful. Well I spoke to Arlene Foster
:42:36. > :42:37.yesterday just after she came off the stage -
:42:38. > :42:41.and I began by asking her about that attack on the Ulster
:42:42. > :42:42.Unionists and SDLP. So, are their new close-working
:42:43. > :42:57.arrangements in Opposition People have rumbled Mike and column.
:42:58. > :43:00.They now selling what is going on. How can a Unionist leader forming
:43:01. > :43:06.coalition in the fashion that they are talking about and not weaken
:43:07. > :43:10.unionism and Northern Ireland's place within the UK? It is a
:43:11. > :43:16.complete farce. The one and get the other. If you vote for Ireland, you
:43:17. > :43:21.get Eileen. That's the reality. I think it is quite amusing. You think
:43:22. > :43:25.it is funny but if you think about it, what you have said is a
:43:26. > :43:30.nonsense. You asked how it could not weaken Unionism for Mike Nesbitt to
:43:31. > :43:33.work closely with Colin Eastwood, by that logic, how does not weaken
:43:34. > :43:40.unions even more for you to be working on Government Martin
:43:41. > :43:43.McGuinness? Into a completely separate. What Mike and column are
:43:44. > :43:48.talking about is an election pack. They are going to go forward with
:43:49. > :43:53.the opposition programme and they're going to ask people to vote for
:43:54. > :43:55.them. When we stand in an election, we stand on her own two feet and put
:43:56. > :43:59.forward our agenda. As you well know, we could forbid that agenda in
:44:00. > :44:03.May under our 5-point plan and people voted for it. They voted for
:44:04. > :44:06.it in their thousands and we had more votes than ever before and we
:44:07. > :44:11.came back with 38 seats, despite the fact there are many who came back
:44:12. > :44:15.with a lot less. I am very content to stand on my own two feet and
:44:16. > :44:21.said, if you vote for Arlene, you get Eileen. But people also got
:44:22. > :44:30.Martin. You can't pretend that didn't happen. And it could happen
:44:31. > :44:33.in an election next week. Would it? I hope people would rally around the
:44:34. > :44:40.DUP. Whether the nationals people decided to vote for Martin's party
:44:41. > :44:42.or Colin's party is a matter for them. I am trying to put forward a
:44:43. > :44:48.positive fish for Northern Ireland. People told me that it didn't matter
:44:49. > :44:51.who the First Minister was in Northern Ireland. Yet we came back
:44:52. > :44:55.as the strongest party, which meant that I could be the First Minister
:44:56. > :44:58.and we could have a majority of unionists in the Executive and the
:44:59. > :45:03.largest party in the Assembly and we could shape the agenda and that is
:45:04. > :45:05.exactly what we're doing, as the DUP, we shape the agenda for
:45:06. > :45:10.Northern Ireland and are moving ahead with the issues that matter.
:45:11. > :45:15.You mentioned electoral pacts and you made an interesting comment
:45:16. > :45:19.during a speech. I want to see if I understand this. You said I will not
:45:20. > :45:22.be watering down Unionism to form an electoral pact or political Alliance
:45:23. > :45:32.with anyone or any party. Does that mean if there was a snap election
:45:33. > :45:34.that your deputy would not have the same kind of agreement between the
:45:35. > :45:41.DUP and Ulster Unionists that made are you one east Belfast and the one
:45:42. > :45:46.for Fermanagh South. Are you ruling out any arrangement with them in the
:45:47. > :45:54.future? Let me say two things, first of all, it appears that Mike has
:45:55. > :45:59.said he wants to do pacts with the SDLP. That is a matter for him. If
:46:00. > :46:02.there were a Westminster election tomorrow, I would have to ask what
:46:03. > :46:05.would serve the best interests of Unionism and that would be the way
:46:06. > :46:09.in which I would decide how to go forward, not looking at anything
:46:10. > :46:13.else but what is best for Unionism, what strengthens Unionism, in terms
:46:14. > :46:17.of a Westminster election at Westminster. That is how I will
:46:18. > :46:20.approach this matter. Interestingly, he did not really make much
:46:21. > :46:24.reference about some of the controversial issues like fatal
:46:25. > :46:29.foetal abnormality or same-sex marriage during your speech.
:46:30. > :46:32.Presumably that was deliberate. Did you consult with your party
:46:33. > :46:38.colleagues before you said there would be no movement on the DUP's
:46:39. > :46:41.part on the issue of supporting same-sex marriage before you make
:46:42. > :46:44.that statement? Because some MLAs in Stormont from other parties are
:46:45. > :46:48.openly tweeting the members of your party are not at all happy with what
:46:49. > :46:52.he said. That is just a nonsense. Because of course that was our
:46:53. > :46:56.position before May, in our manifesto and it is our position
:46:57. > :47:13.since then. There was no surprise in any of this. I was asked a
:47:14. > :47:17.question by a huge story. It is no surprise in any of this. When we put
:47:18. > :47:20.together manifested, we were very clear about delivering on it. The
:47:21. > :47:22.reason why those issues, which you told me where issues of the
:47:23. > :47:25.election, of course they went the issue of the election. The issues of
:47:26. > :47:27.the election were in and around health and education and investment
:47:28. > :47:32.and those were the issues people voted on. They did not vote on a
:47:33. > :47:36.narrow agenda. They voted on a broad agenda for Northern Ireland. That is
:47:37. > :47:40.what I was reflecting on today. A straight answer to this question,
:47:41. > :47:46.are you clear that every one of the 30th MLAs in the DUP support your
:47:47. > :47:51.position on same-sex marriage? Because I can think of a few who I
:47:52. > :47:55.think would take a different line and who would support to same-sex
:47:56. > :47:58.marriage if given the opportunity. And that is your assessment. And I
:47:59. > :48:07.have to respect your assessment. But let me say this. I have spoken to
:48:08. > :48:10.them. That's fine. It is the party policy and the reality and the party
:48:11. > :48:16.policy was passed to the Executive of the party back in April and it
:48:17. > :48:19.came to the people in May and people voted for it in May and it is quite
:48:20. > :48:22.amusing to hear some commentators and others talk about the fact we
:48:23. > :48:28.need to vote on this issue. We did have on this issue. As recently as
:48:29. > :48:34.May of this year. Those are the issues that were important at the
:48:35. > :48:38.time, health, education, investment, jobs and those are the issues that I
:48:39. > :48:41.am focused on, moving forward because I believe if we focus on
:48:42. > :48:46.those issues we will deliver a better Northern Ireland for
:48:47. > :48:50.absolutely everybody. You also spoke about Brexited he had outlined here
:48:51. > :48:54.approached that in the forthcoming negotiations, which he said will be
:48:55. > :48:58.tough negotiations. You're pretty clear about how you want handle
:48:59. > :49:01.that. It wasn't your message on Grexit basically no special status
:49:02. > :49:21.for Northern Ireland? It is off the agenda? -- it wasn't your message on
:49:22. > :49:25.breaks it -- Brexit. We have to recognise the geography of Northern
:49:26. > :49:29.Ireland is different from the UK and we should recognise it in
:49:30. > :49:31.negotiations and the Prime Minister will recognise this because she has
:49:32. > :49:34.already in the House of Commons when she said we were different because
:49:35. > :49:39.of our land border with what will be the European Union. Special status
:49:40. > :49:44.or different but not different enough to have special status, which
:49:45. > :49:50.is it? It is in negotiation. It hasn't even started yet. Those of us
:49:51. > :49:55.who've been to many negotiations are Northern Ireland now it will be an
:49:56. > :49:59.evolving picture and that we have to get the best deal for the people of
:50:00. > :50:04.Northern Ireland and that is what I am focused on regardless of whether
:50:05. > :50:06.people voted remain or to leave, the figure should now be what is
:50:07. > :50:11.rightfully people of Northern Ireland and that is where I am and
:50:12. > :50:15.where I hope others will come to as well. I know there are others
:50:16. > :50:19.struggling with the fact that the UK voted to leave the EU and are having
:50:20. > :50:20.difficulty with that. They're engaging in court cases are doing
:50:21. > :50:34.all sorts of things when in fact they
:50:35. > :50:36.should be concentrating on doing what is right for the people of
:50:37. > :50:39.Northern Ireland. That is my focus and I hope others will eventually
:50:40. > :50:41.come to that determination as well. You so clearly the Brexit means
:50:42. > :50:44.Grexit. The whole of the UK must leave the EU. It seems to suggest
:50:45. > :50:47.that the idea there might be some special status for Northern Ireland
:50:48. > :50:54.is of your radar. -- Brexit means Brexit. You have also set... People
:50:55. > :50:57.might want to know whether there is a possibility that during the
:50:58. > :51:02.negotiations on pain of special status and Northern Ireland might be
:51:03. > :51:07.acceptable to Arlene Foster. What I have said to you is that the whole
:51:08. > :51:11.of the UK's leading the EU. Even the Prime Minister has recognised that
:51:12. > :51:14.there are specific circumstances which pertain to Northern Ireland
:51:15. > :51:18.and those have to be dealt with. Whether people want to label that
:51:19. > :51:21.special circumstance or special starters, I am not that interested.
:51:22. > :51:26.What I am interested in is doing what's right for the people of
:51:27. > :51:30.Northern Ireland. Your message to the Irish Government, if I was to
:51:31. > :51:36.summarise it, having read the speech is, effectively, mind your own
:51:37. > :51:39.business, stay out of it? No, it's not that at all. I don't know how
:51:40. > :51:43.you came to that determination and! I said we had the best relationship
:51:44. > :51:46.we have ever had with the edge Government, we'll continue to have
:51:47. > :51:50.those negotiations but frankly cannot have it both ways. They are
:51:51. > :51:54.currently out in America talking to friends that are already in Northern
:51:55. > :51:57.Ireland, saying they should come south to the Republic and they are
:51:58. > :52:05.also talking to potential firms we are talking to try to get them to
:52:06. > :52:08.the Republic of Ireland as well. Is it competition or is a corporation?
:52:09. > :52:12.Which do they want? They have to make up their mind in relation to. I
:52:13. > :52:18.know they have a different economy and they will want to sell that but
:52:19. > :52:20.please don't misrepresent what is happening in Northern Ireland. Our
:52:21. > :52:26.offering to investors has not changed. We still have the talent,
:52:27. > :52:31.the value and come April 20 18th we will have a tax offering as well.
:52:32. > :52:34.And I think the offering for inward investors will be even stronger
:52:35. > :52:36.after Brexit because there are huge opportunities in relation to
:52:37. > :52:38.international trade. Arlene Foster speaking to me
:52:39. > :52:41.straight after her conference speech Let's hear what my studio
:52:42. > :52:44.guests make of that. I'm joined by the journalists
:52:45. > :52:55.Sam McBride and Suzanne Breen. Arlene Foster's firepower was
:52:56. > :53:00.trained on Mike Nesbitt and call me eastward, rather than Republicans.
:53:01. > :53:09.Not a mention of Sinn Fein at all. There was one reference to not
:53:10. > :53:15.getting a united Ireland and that was pointed at Anna Lo, but the real
:53:16. > :53:21.enemy is Mike Nesbitt and the Ulster Unionists for Arlene, and she has
:53:22. > :53:27.been bothered by this new nickname of Marlene and made remarks about
:53:28. > :53:33.Steptoe and son team the opposition and remarks about people's
:53:34. > :53:38.appearance and this was a vicious attack on opposition and she clearly
:53:39. > :53:57.thinks not very much of them. She dismissed Mike
:53:58. > :54:07.Nesbitt and Colum Eastwood. The DUP did not attack Sinn Fein but any
:54:08. > :54:16.attacks were from people marching in a newsreader. They were people
:54:17. > :54:20.outside the party. The DUP is clearly in love with its leader, she
:54:21. > :54:25.stands on a honeymoon period and masterful she surveys. What about
:54:26. > :54:30.the defections? We the people named as coming across from Ulster
:54:31. > :54:33.Unionists to the DUP. They're not exactly the big beasts of the forest
:54:34. > :54:37.in political terms but it is significant enough in its own way.
:54:38. > :54:42.The defections, they are not a game changer but they show the direction
:54:43. > :54:48.in which Unionist politics is going. The DUP conference claim we are a
:54:49. > :54:51.family, to welcome the new recruits bear and Greatham Creek, the Belfast
:54:52. > :54:55.City Council, he had pride of place in the very top row. It was
:54:56. > :55:01.interesting, he was wearing a 3-piece suit with a pink tie and
:55:02. > :55:05.remastered waistcoat and he said, I Arlene Foster's first openly gay
:55:06. > :55:11.councillor and that there are some wiser DUP there a little bit
:55:12. > :55:18.alarmed. It will be interesting to see how people will handle Greatham
:55:19. > :55:29.Creek. He has an independent streak. He has been critical in the past. As
:55:30. > :55:41.have others, making reference to the DUP pings like North Korea. One of
:55:42. > :55:48.the difficulties for anyone defecting, the internet has a long
:55:49. > :55:54.memory. Graham Craig was probably one of the most viciously anti-DUP
:55:55. > :55:59.unionist I could think so I was stunned when I read he had moved
:56:00. > :56:04.across. It must alarmed unionists because if someone who is openly
:56:05. > :56:08.savaging the DUP a months ago, he sent us letters regularly which were
:56:09. > :56:13.so vicious we felt we could not publish them for legal reasons, if
:56:14. > :56:25.he can move across, perhaps anyone can. And on Brexiter, I am
:56:26. > :56:29.interested in what she had to say. She said to the Irish Government,
:56:30. > :56:31.you are trying to poach our investors. If people want to come
:56:32. > :56:33.shopping in the North, they're very welcome.
:56:34. > :56:35.Let's talk about the Taoiseach, Enda Kenny's, all-island
:56:36. > :56:38.conversation on the implications of Brexit in Dublin on Wednesday.
:56:39. > :56:40.The DUP and the Ulster Unionists have both declined Mr Kenny's
:56:41. > :56:43.invitation - Arlene Foster insisting she has better things to do
:56:44. > :56:46.than listen to a lot of "grand-standing remoaners".
:56:47. > :56:49.Mr Kenny, however, told the Dail it's important that as many voices
:56:50. > :57:03.It is my intention to convene an all-Ireland conversation about this,
:57:04. > :57:09.to which business people and members of civic society and political
:57:10. > :57:11.parties could be inflated. -- invited.
:57:12. > :57:25.Relations between the Unionist parties, between Northern Ireland
:57:26. > :57:30.and the Government in the south, very tricky at the moment? Yes. They
:57:31. > :57:34.are. This issue has always struck me as baffling. It seems an incredibly
:57:35. > :57:38.pedantic debate, the Enda Kenny is saying we should have this debate in
:57:39. > :57:44.a new forum specifically to discuss Brexit rather than the existing
:57:45. > :57:48.North South Ministerial Council. The DUP are saying, no, it seems quite
:57:49. > :57:54.baffling as to why there might not be able to be a compromise and it is
:57:55. > :57:59.very odd because on the one hand the DUP have better relations with
:58:00. > :58:09.Dublin than they had ever had. And yet be raised this chasm -- there is
:58:10. > :58:15.this chasm with Enda Kenny day. Perhaps southern politics explained
:58:16. > :58:18.some of it. I think you must be very embarrassing to Sinn Fein that this
:58:19. > :58:25.is their partners in Government and yet Arlene Foster will not take part
:58:26. > :58:27.in that forum. It is clear who wears the trousers and too is not Martin
:58:28. > :58:30.McGuinness. Thank you both for now. Let's pause for a moment
:58:31. > :58:32.and take a look back at the week in 60 seconds -
:58:33. > :58:35.with Gareth Gordon... The Health Minister unveiled
:58:36. > :58:37.a 10-year plan she claims will improve a system at breaking
:58:38. > :58:49.point. There is no quick fix. We need to
:58:50. > :58:50.have a sustained plan of action, what I set out.
:58:51. > :58:53.As devolved leaders talked Brexit in Downing Street the Prime Minister
:58:54. > :58:55.said Northern Ireland was a special case.
:58:56. > :59:02.The position of Northern Ireland will be a particular position
:59:03. > :59:03.because it will be the one part of the UK with a land border with a
:59:04. > :59:04.country remaining inside the EU. And her Secretary of State denied
:59:05. > :59:14.he would favour Westminster's I will work alongside the Executive
:59:15. > :59:20.Committee First Minister and the Deputy First Minister through the
:59:21. > :59:22.joint... You're not be in force of London? No, it is about how to get
:59:23. > :59:23.the best deal for Northern Ireland. Naomi Long took over from David Ford
:59:24. > :59:26.as Alliance leader though he and the woman who replaced him
:59:27. > :59:34.as Justice Minister had issues - Since it is clearly her decision,
:59:35. > :59:36.she clearly has a plan is to fund it. It is a personal decision. I am
:59:37. > :59:42.Minister of justice. Martin McGuinness said on The View
:59:43. > :59:48.last week it would be shameful and disgraceful if outstanding
:59:49. > :59:50.legacy issues haven't been resolved by the first anniversary
:59:51. > :59:55.of the Fresh Start deal. What chance a resolution
:59:56. > :00:06.any time soon? I think there is no sign of a
:00:07. > :00:10.revolution. There are people out there who very much need help and
:00:11. > :00:13.they are not getting it and our politicians need to put their heads
:00:14. > :00:17.together and get some sort of deal, even an interim deal, on the table.
:00:18. > :00:23.There are people with serious injuries and they need assistance.
:00:24. > :00:31.Are you any more optimistic? A little bit. It depends how you
:00:32. > :00:35.define a resolution. Perhaps we will see some sort of progress but Arlene
:00:36. > :00:44.Foster was pretty bullish, saying she will not allow the history of
:00:45. > :00:45.the troubles to be rewritten. Thank you both.
:00:46. > :00:56.That's it. Back to Andrew in London.
:00:57. > :01:01.Barely more than a week now until polling day,
:01:02. > :01:11.and a new revelation rocks the US Presidential election campaign.
:01:12. > :01:14.If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just got more bizarre.
:01:15. > :01:16.The FBI have reopened their investigation into Hillary Clinton's
:01:17. > :01:18.use of private email servers whilst she was Secretary
:01:19. > :01:27.of State, after the discovery of further emails.
:01:28. > :01:31.Though not on her laptop or even the State Department.
:01:32. > :01:34.Donald Trump is saying that it's bigger than Watergate -
:01:35. > :01:36.so could it swing the election in his favour?
:01:37. > :01:38.We spoke to top US pollster, Frank Luntz.
:01:39. > :01:42.The FBI investigation is happening so late in the election process
:01:43. > :01:46.that it would be very difficult to derail a Clinton victory.
:01:47. > :01:49.That said, if there is one thing that could keep Hillary Clinton
:01:50. > :01:54.from the presidency, it's an FBI investigation.
:01:55. > :01:57.But there's still only four states that really matter, Florida, Ohio,
:01:58. > :02:02.Right now, Clinton has beyond the margin of error leads
:02:03. > :02:09.This would have to have a truly significant impact for the election
:02:10. > :02:16.There is a point about a week ago when I was prepared to say that
:02:17. > :02:22.Clinton had a 95% chance of winning this election.
:02:23. > :02:28.Based on what has happened in the last 48 hours,
:02:29. > :02:33.It is still very likely, but I wouldn't bet on it.
:02:34. > :02:36.I thought the 2000 election would be the best election of my lifetime,
:02:37. > :02:40.And then I thought 2008 would be amazing, because we had two
:02:41. > :02:44.challenger candidates and the first African-American President.
:02:45. > :02:53.It is ugly, it's painful, it is as negative as anything
:02:54. > :02:59.The public is angry, the country, overall, is frustrated.
:03:00. > :03:06.But for entertainment value, these candidates probably should
:03:07. > :03:09.have charged us money, because it's better than any movie
:03:10. > :03:11.at ever seen, it's better than any TV show.
:03:12. > :03:23.That was Frank Luntz. He may be right or wrong about Mrs Clinton
:03:24. > :03:32.still having an 80% chance of winning. I would bet on an 80%
:03:33. > :03:36.chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to a high-profile American pollster and
:03:37. > :03:41.strategist last night and he took a rather different view to Frank
:03:42. > :03:44.Luntz. He thought, and I think some other high-profile commentators
:03:45. > :03:49.agree, that this is actually much more serious than some people
:03:50. > :03:54.realise. There are an awful lot of undecided voters out there looking
:03:55. > :03:59.for an excuse to vote Trump. They do not like what they see in either
:04:00. > :04:03.candidate. But because this FBI probe is not going to conclude
:04:04. > :04:08.before the election, the question, the doubt over Hillary Clinton,
:04:09. > :04:13.gives them an excuse to back Trump. The thing that will play on the
:04:14. > :04:17.minds of the voters is, could the 100 day honeymoon turning to the 100
:04:18. > :04:23.day divorce? Which even be impeached? It may give some people
:04:24. > :04:27.an excuse not to vote for Mrs Clinton. It could provide a problem
:04:28. > :04:35.in terms of energising her base. The battle ground almost matters more
:04:36. > :04:41.than the polls. Florida and Pennsylvania have been trending to
:04:42. > :04:47.Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win both. He does not get in without
:04:48. > :04:52.both. He needs both. Just coming up in the latest BBC News, the
:04:53. > :04:59.Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs Clinton is now only one point ahead
:05:00. > :05:03.in the national poll. One point. Even given my caveat that the state
:05:04. > :05:09.battles are most important. That is incredibly close? It is. Polls
:05:10. > :05:17.yesterday showed Trump nationally closing of. -- up. There is a clear
:05:18. > :05:20.trend and movement. This has reinforced everything that people
:05:21. > :05:25.who have a problem with Hillary Clinton know about Hillary Clinton.
:05:26. > :05:30.Trump is running this insurgent campaign. We have seen at here with
:05:31. > :05:33.Brexit. If you are running an insurgent campaign, you want to be
:05:34. > :05:37.against the ultimate establishment insider and that is what Hillary
:05:38. > :05:43.Clinton is. I suggested it was bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of
:05:44. > :05:47.the FBI is interesting as well. This is a separate investigation into a
:05:48. > :05:52.former congressman, Anthony Wiener, who had done all sorts of things. He
:05:53. > :06:00.seemed to be sex text thing a minor. A 15-year-old girl. The FBI
:06:01. > :06:07.investigate. They get his laptop to see what else he has been too. In
:06:08. > :06:11.the course of that, his wife, now separated, the closest adviser to
:06:12. > :06:21.Hillary Clinton, they find on the laptop e-mails involving the Clinton
:06:22. > :06:28.server to her. And yet the FBI cannot, it needs now a separate
:06:29. > :06:30.warrant to access these e-mails. It hasn't got that yet. It has got a
:06:31. > :06:38.warrant to do the congressman e-mails. On the basis of not knowing
:06:39. > :06:45.the content, this has happened. Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican,
:06:46. > :06:49.this guy. Earlier this year he was being praised to the hilt by
:06:50. > :06:54.Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is a nightmare for her. You described
:06:55. > :07:00.the whole sequence. There is nothing definitive to doubt in this
:07:01. > :07:06.sequence. All he is saying is he has discovered more e-mails in effect.
:07:07. > :07:13.They are from the congressman's former wife. On Anthony Wiener's
:07:14. > :07:20.laptop, which apparently she used sometimes. But what that shows is
:07:21. > :07:25.that for all the scrutiny of modern politicians, they cannot escape
:07:26. > :07:29.caricature. And as Tim was just saying, her weakness is perceived to
:07:30. > :07:34.be secretive, elitism and complacency about that elitism. And
:07:35. > :07:40.so just the announcement of a reopening of the investigation so
:07:41. > :07:44.fuels that caricature, you have just revealed a poll giving her a 1%
:07:45. > :07:50.lead. That must be related to what has happened. It is without a shred
:07:51. > :07:55.of evidence that she has done anything wrong. You can see how,
:07:56. > :08:00.because people only see things encourage kids, that is deadly
:08:01. > :08:05.serious. -- in caricature. An American friend of mine said we have
:08:06. > :08:12.got our October surprise but we don't know what it is. The FBI must
:08:13. > :08:19.surely come under massive pressure. It did its -- it did this against
:08:20. > :08:22.the Justice Department. The difficulty the FBI had was that this
:08:23. > :08:27.information, for what it's worth, it came to them. Were they not to have
:08:28. > :08:31.said something and it worked to have come out later, they would have been
:08:32. > :08:36.accused of a massive cover-up. They are dammed if they do, dammed if
:08:37. > :08:40.they don't. There is still time for another surprise. And early November
:08:41. > :08:45.surprise. Who knows if there might still be something that comes out on
:08:46. > :08:49.Donald Trump? This is the first election where I can remember we
:08:50. > :08:54.have had two October surprises already. There are is stuff about
:08:55. > :08:59.tapes knocking around about Donald Trump saying racist things. The
:09:00. > :09:02.Clintons have got a lot of friends. It would be a big surprise if we did
:09:03. > :09:05.not see anything else in the next few days.
:09:06. > :09:12.Just when you think it could not get more interesting, it has. There has
:09:13. > :09:13.been plenty in the papers lately about the Ukip leadership saying
:09:14. > :09:16.unpleasant things about each other. But what about Mr Farage himself?
:09:17. > :09:18.What's he up to? Well, on BBC Two tonight we may
:09:19. > :09:21.find out the answer. Well, I'm led to believe
:09:22. > :09:28.she's very experienced. But I don't think Strictly Come
:09:29. > :09:30.Dancing is for me. That is, unless, of course,
:09:31. > :09:36.you fancy popping a cheeky zero No, I don't think Strictly
:09:37. > :09:40.Come Dancing is for me. Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just
:09:41. > :09:46.lost your programme one viewer. I might have nothing to do these
:09:47. > :10:08.days but, realistically, Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It
:10:09. > :10:13.is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel Farage gets his life back. A number
:10:14. > :10:19.of runners and riders. Let's come straight down to it. Who would be
:10:20. > :10:24.the next leader of Ukip? Probably Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite.
:10:25. > :10:29.The one who has the backing, not very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim
:10:30. > :10:40.Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks, a big donor. The best of a rather weak
:10:41. > :10:51.lot. I think Paul Nuttall should squeak through. I interviewed all
:10:52. > :10:54.three of them this week. Mr Cassandra is a lively character and
:10:55. > :10:58.he knows how to make a few headlines. With a bit of money
:10:59. > :11:02.behind him, anything is possible. This is a guy who has been to the
:11:03. > :11:13.States, who has literally studied what Trump has done. Pees on
:11:14. > :11:20.secondment for the time being. The guy who is his line manager is one
:11:21. > :11:22.of Donald Trump's campaign stop. He is extraordinarily right-wing. I am
:11:23. > :11:31.told he kept a picture of Enoch Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater
:11:32. > :11:38.is one of his heroes, for example. There are other candidates. I would
:11:39. > :11:44.suggest, put out as a hypothesis, Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst
:11:45. > :11:50.nightmare. They are more vulnerable in the North. Paul Nuttall is from
:11:51. > :11:54.Merseyside, a working-class background, performs well on
:11:55. > :11:58.television. He is a really good interviewee. He is one of the best
:11:59. > :12:03.around in politics at the moment. However, I think whoever gets it has
:12:04. > :12:10.a massive task. The clip of this Nigel Farage satire partly shows
:12:11. > :12:14.why. His dominance was overwhelming. He, in many ways, did a brilliant
:12:15. > :12:19.job at keeping the show on the road. The trouble for all new political
:12:20. > :12:24.parties is keeping it going is tough. A very different party, the
:12:25. > :12:28.SDP, with all those glamorous figures in it, lasted eight years,
:12:29. > :12:31.something like that. I think they are in real trouble at the moment
:12:32. > :12:37.because of the implosion we have been seeing in front of our eyes and
:12:38. > :12:47.the ideal -- ideological splits. Whoever gets it will face a tough
:12:48. > :12:49.tussle. All three of the main contenders want to put Nigel Farage
:12:50. > :12:54.in the House of Lords. They were falling over themselves to soak up
:12:55. > :12:58.two farads. That is how you win this election.
:12:59. > :13:05.Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting his money on? He said he supports
:13:06. > :13:10.Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He
:13:11. > :13:14.thinks it is terribly disorganised, dysfunctional and doesn't want a
:13:15. > :13:16.great deal to do with it for the foreseeable future.
:13:17. > :13:21.It is not quite Trump the Clinton but it is interesting. That is it.
:13:22. > :13:27.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow. And all of next week. Jo Coburn will
:13:28. > :13:31.be your next Sunday because I am off to the United States to begin to
:13:32. > :13:38.rehearse presenting the BBC's US election night coverage on the 8th
:13:39. > :13:38.of November. It will be here on BBC One, BBC
:13:39. > :13:41.world, BBC News Channel and BBC online.
:13:42. > :14:11.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:12. > :14:17.We will be in the Book Of Records as the oldest family in the world.
:14:18. > :14:22.We grew up together, we played together, we worked together.
:14:23. > :14:25.Drink was never seen amongst us at all.