14/10/2012

:00:41. > :00:45.Hello and welcome to the programme. The battle lines have been drunk,

:00:45. > :00:50.the question has been sorted. There will be one question, not to. If

:00:50. > :00:54.you are 16 or 17, and you might get the chance to vote. What am I

:00:54. > :00:57.talking about? The referendum on Scottish independence. David

:00:57. > :01:01.Cameron and Alex Salmond will be announcing the deal tomorrow. We

:01:01. > :01:06.will ask both sides that they are happy with the rules of engagement.

:01:06. > :01:09.This man has a tall order on his hands, he is in charge of leading

:01:09. > :01:16.the Conservative Party to victory at the next election. We will ask

:01:16. > :01:20.Grant Shapps how he intends to do The Police Federation thinks that

:01:20. > :01:24.Andrew Mitchell should be Thyer, but David Cameron does not. We will

:01:24. > :01:28.be talking about this and more. And on Sunday Politics got on, if

:01:28. > :01:34.we will take a close look at the road to the referendum. Where will

:01:34. > :01:44.be partisan campaigns go next? Expect a bumpy ride. -- where will

:01:44. > :01:44.

:01:44. > :33:53.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1928 seconds

:33:53. > :33:55.Before we sort of take that to a ridiculous extreme and say, and

:33:56. > :34:00.therefore this party cannot support people who want to work hard in

:34:00. > :34:04.this country, get on and doing the right thing, if people get out --

:34:04. > :34:08.get up every day at work long hours. I want to stick to the question.

:34:08. > :34:16.How many MPs have come up to you and said that Mr Mitchell should

:34:16. > :34:20.go? I cannot recall a single MP. Not one? There are reports that

:34:20. > :34:24.several Cabinet Ministers and many MPs have said so. Review in the

:34:24. > :34:30.hall when his picture went up and your own activists booed and jeered

:34:30. > :34:36.him? What does that tell you? not there. About that whole affair,

:34:36. > :34:40.clearly he should not have spoken to the police like that. He has

:34:40. > :34:45.apologised. The individual policemen concerned has accepted

:34:45. > :34:49.the apology, and actually, others are now pinning in and saying that

:34:49. > :34:53.this is not good enough. I think that if the guy who was involved

:34:53. > :34:58.has accepted the apology then it is time to draw the line and move on.

:34:58. > :35:02.Let's look at your own position. How to create your own money-making

:35:02. > :35:06.meant, Howe and Michael Green is doing it right now. This is your

:35:06. > :35:10.bit, you are Michael Green. Most people like to pick up their

:35:10. > :35:13.business records, look at Mitt Romney in the United States, what

:35:13. > :35:17.was so embarrassing about years that you had to operate under a

:35:17. > :35:24.false name? I am not embarrassed at all. Why did you use a false name

:35:24. > :35:29.then? This is something I set up 22 years ago as it is this company. As

:35:29. > :35:32.a hobby. My wife and I started a publishing business online which

:35:32. > :35:36.turned out to be relatively successful, and it was publishing

:35:36. > :35:42.some very boring things, like how to write a newsletter. Why did you

:35:42. > :35:46.use Michael Green? Simply for the fact that I wanted to keep my

:35:46. > :35:52.interest in politics, which I was that in at the time, separate.

:35:52. > :35:56.Either way, I wrote on my in my biography, this is not ideal name,

:35:56. > :36:00.I am writing under attending, the raising it -- the reason is that I

:36:00. > :36:05.am going into public service. gave interviews as Michael Green

:36:05. > :36:11.online. Your book, you said, which show people how to make $20,000 in

:36:11. > :36:15.20 days. How do you do that? There is a serious business, in the

:36:15. > :36:22.context of online marketing, is about creating a product online,

:36:22. > :36:26.putting it up on minor marketing it. There was a 45,000 word manual.

:36:26. > :36:31.$20,000 and 20 days, have you done that? It is certainly possible to

:36:31. > :36:36.do this online. If you can do that, surely you should be Chancellor of

:36:36. > :36:42.the Exchequer rather than chairman of the party? This is largely

:36:42. > :36:47.marketing to the US market. they are more bill will? Let me

:36:47. > :36:52.answer the question. -- they are more gullible. This is another

:36:52. > :36:55.embarrassment to your party. For too posh and a privilege, we can

:36:55. > :37:00.now it at Grant Shapps sharp business practices. I am very proud

:37:00. > :37:06.of having been in this business. It was all about helping other people

:37:06. > :37:09.get on and create their own businesses. Helping to produce

:37:09. > :37:14.online games and sell them, the Internet is a huge market place

:37:14. > :37:18.especially in the United States. It was a very brash, exciting time. I

:37:18. > :37:26.was very open about it at the time. It is only curious to people now

:37:26. > :37:30.because they did not spot at the time that I was writing about it.

:37:30. > :37:40.Thank you for joining us. It is coming up to mistake, you are

:37:40. > :37:43.

:37:43. > :37:46.Welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up: after 10 long months,

:37:46. > :37:48.the Prime Minister and First Minister will finally put pen to

:37:48. > :37:52.paper tomorrow and will sign the deal.

:37:52. > :37:55.Another significant moment on the road to the referendum. Today we

:37:55. > :37:59.will be looking ahead to where we go next.

:37:59. > :38:02.We will be hearing from the two negotiators who brokered the deal,

:38:03. > :38:06.Michael Moore and Nicola Sturgeon. Yes Scotland and Better Together

:38:06. > :38:13.campaigns go head-to-head. What now for the embattled Crown

:38:13. > :38:17.supporters? What site will be take? -- for the middle ground supporters.

:38:17. > :38:24.Will the waters still be muddied? What will the impact be on Wales,

:38:24. > :38:27.Northern Ireland and England? Tomorrow the Prime Minister of the

:38:27. > :38:30.United Kingdom will sign an agreement which could pave the way

:38:30. > :38:33.for Scottish independence. David Cameron will meet Alex Salmond in

:38:33. > :38:38.St Andrews House in Edinburgh and ratify the deal on the referendum

:38:38. > :38:41.which could end the 300 the old union. The arguments over

:38:41. > :38:46.independents are likely to get louder now, but there is still

:38:46. > :38:51.plenty of debate about the process, as we will now explain. A QPR on

:38:51. > :38:54.the verge of the official agreement, making the headline -- here we are

:38:54. > :38:58.on the verge of the official agreement, making the headlines

:38:58. > :39:03.today. For some it seems like a rash. What

:39:03. > :39:07.happened to the SNP's much- trumpeted consultation the I am

:39:07. > :39:11.quite surprised about this. As we have gone through this process, a

:39:11. > :39:15.lot of the prevarication seems to have been about the consultation,

:39:15. > :39:19.waiting for the consultation. I never quite understood why if the

:39:19. > :39:23.SNP First Minister wanted a second question. He has encouraged it

:39:23. > :39:27.somewhat. Now it seems we are about to get the agreement signed without

:39:27. > :39:30.knowing the results of that consultation. I am not sure what

:39:31. > :39:35.that was about. I am sure we will find out.

:39:35. > :39:38.Perhaps there is still a lot to discover from both sides. What does

:39:38. > :39:44.independence really mean? What will the UK look like in the event of no

:39:44. > :39:49.vote? In some ways, both campaigns have got to build momentum behind

:39:49. > :39:52.the proposition. Key Unionists have got to say, what are the real

:39:52. > :39:57.advantages for Scotland for staying within the Union? What kind of

:39:57. > :40:02.union will it be? The nationalists must explain, which they have not

:40:02. > :40:06.done yet, they must explain to the voters what are the real advantages

:40:06. > :40:10.for Scotland wing independent? That argument is not yet understood, I

:40:10. > :40:14.do not believe. -- for Scotland going independent.

:40:14. > :40:19.As the debates continue, attention turns to be available support for

:40:19. > :40:25.each side. Can the SNP repeat their performance of its white -- of the

:40:25. > :40:30.20 other than Holyrood election? One nationalist claims they can. --

:40:30. > :40:32.called the 2011 Holyrood election. He will find that one in three

:40:32. > :40:36.Labour voters are in the position where they would support

:40:36. > :40:40.independence. I do not say that this means that Labour is an

:40:40. > :40:44.independent supporting party, what I do say is that the idea of

:40:44. > :40:46.political parties have a monopoly and support -- monopoly and control

:40:46. > :40:51.over their party members' views is plainly nonsense.

:40:51. > :40:54.Both sides are already busy, trying to convince people ahead of the

:40:55. > :40:58.crucial vote. Here is how they have played it so far.

:40:58. > :41:03.The Prime Minister was first out of the traps when he hinted at setting

:41:03. > :41:07.out legal powers for the referendum. I think we all the Scottish people

:41:07. > :41:09.something that is fair, legal and decisive.

:41:09. > :41:12.The Secretary of State for Scotland says that Holyrood does not have

:41:12. > :41:16.the powers to hold a referendum, but the UK Government is prepared

:41:16. > :41:21.to pass them on as they negotiate. Alex Salmond would then announce

:41:21. > :41:25.the date as autumn 2014. The UK Government announced the start of

:41:25. > :41:30.the consultation on the referendum. One Bernstein that Edinburgh Castle,

:41:30. > :41:32.the Scottish betterment launched their own consultation, asking for

:41:32. > :41:37.the back for their preferred question. Do you agree that

:41:37. > :41:40.Scotland should be an independent country? And so let that great

:41:40. > :41:44.debates now begin. The Prime Minister and First

:41:44. > :41:47.Minister met in Edinburgh to begin negotiations. Those campaigning for

:41:47. > :41:52.more powers for the parliament but not independence moved into what

:41:52. > :42:02.they saw as a gap. Support for a second question on more powers grew

:42:02. > :42:08.in some quarters. The UK Government consultation on what is now on the

:42:08. > :42:12.cards. Later in May, the lot of the Yes

:42:12. > :42:17.campaign hope to bring people over to independence. The razzmatazz at

:42:17. > :42:21.the launch was much criticised in the press.

:42:21. > :42:25.The more low-key Better Together made its launch on to the political

:42:25. > :42:29.horizon. The truth is that this coming together of family friends,

:42:29. > :42:36.ideas, institutions and identities is a strange, not a weakness.

:42:36. > :42:40.After some political manoeuvring, Pennant packet, the Greens voted to

:42:40. > :42:44.rejoin the Yes Scotland campaign. Fun and games at the Conservative

:42:44. > :42:47.conference this week as the Scott on Office minister let the cat out

:42:47. > :42:50.of the back about the agreement which was then confirmed by the

:42:50. > :42:54.Prime Minister in his conference speech. -- of the Scottish Office

:42:54. > :42:58.minister. The PM was in a combative mood, but

:42:58. > :43:03.it was Mr Salmond to make the most out of the deal. In a negotiation,

:43:03. > :43:07.as you normally try to overtake the pudding and say I want this, I want

:43:07. > :43:11.that, and then you see what you get rid of as a negotiation goes on.

:43:11. > :43:15.What is interesting here and almost scary for the Scottish National

:43:15. > :43:20.Party and for Alex Salmond is that they got so much out of a

:43:20. > :43:26.negotiation that they, I think if I were Alex Salmond, find it

:43:26. > :43:29.difficult to control my enthusiasm and my pleasure with what I have

:43:29. > :43:35.actually got. We are waiting for confirmation on

:43:35. > :43:38.one critical point, campaign financing. One pundit police that

:43:38. > :43:41.the SNP could use this issue to their advantage if there is an old

:43:41. > :43:45.Ford, claiming they cannot compete with the Unionist war-chest. He

:43:45. > :43:50.also thinks it does not make a difference. For what is interesting

:43:50. > :43:52.about campaign spending, if you look is -- if you look at other

:43:52. > :43:57.countries where they have had referendums, is that campaign

:43:57. > :44:01.spending does not make much of a difference. People are not really

:44:01. > :44:05.been bought. It is difficult to change people's minds with money.

:44:05. > :44:09.Another important issue is the agreement on a single question, as

:44:09. > :44:13.we have seen there is backing for Devo Max. Where all those

:44:13. > :44:18.supporters go now? You could see the Unionist parties having shot

:44:18. > :44:21.themselves in the foot by having a simple yes no question. Because

:44:21. > :44:24.voters are quite supporter of a middle option, at as they will not

:44:24. > :44:28.be asked the middle option you start to worry about where those

:44:28. > :44:35.voters will go. Were those switchers will go. Will they go to

:44:35. > :44:38.yes or no? This will be asked the electorate.

:44:38. > :44:42.Voters will continue to examine the key issues, they have two years to

:44:42. > :44:45.make up their minds. We are now well on the road to the referendum

:44:45. > :44:49.with that historic agreement in Edinburgh tomorrow.

:44:49. > :44:53.Let's talk to the key negotiators, the Scottish Secretary Michael

:44:53. > :44:58.Moore is in her studio. Tacky for talking to us.

:44:59. > :45:01.Then the Sunday Times, Michael Forsyth the Scottish -- the former

:45:01. > :45:04.Scottish secretary, said that Salmon has been able to get what he

:45:05. > :45:09.wants. If that is a negotiation that is stretching the language,

:45:09. > :45:13.that sounds like a walkover. regret the fact that Lord Forsyth

:45:13. > :45:17.has chosen to use that language, I hope that when everyone sees detail

:45:17. > :45:21.that will be unveiled tomorrow they can see that what we have achieved

:45:21. > :45:24.here is something that brings together the objectives of both the

:45:24. > :45:28.United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government, that he will

:45:28. > :45:34.have a referendum on independence that is legal, that is fair and is

:45:34. > :45:39.decisive. An important, it is made in Scotland, it will have the rules

:45:39. > :45:43.and regulations around debt which are familiar and recognised for

:45:43. > :45:48.people of a length and breadth of Scotland and the UK. I think there

:45:49. > :45:53.is a good agreement and I think it will now allow us to pick up alight

:45:53. > :45:59.to the big issues about the big debate that the First Minister call

:45:59. > :46:02.it. I believe that will be looked at the economy and their defence

:46:02. > :46:05.and a place in the world, on all these big issues, people across

:46:05. > :46:08.Scotland will continue to support Scotland being in the United

:46:08. > :46:12.Kingdom. But it was a high risk strategy for

:46:12. > :46:15.due to rule out the second question, because at the moment the polls

:46:15. > :46:20.suggest that this would win out over independence.

:46:20. > :46:23.The critical issue here for all of us, and why we have been engaged on

:46:23. > :46:28.this issue with the Scottish Government has been to make sure we

:46:28. > :46:32.have a decisive referendum. That we do not have a model when you mix of

:46:32. > :46:35.two very different ideas. Independence is about Scotland

:46:35. > :46:39.leaving the United Kingdom, if becoming a separate state, taking

:46:39. > :46:43.on all the burdens and risks that go with that and losing all the

:46:43. > :46:47.benefits an opportunity that we have as part of the United Kingdom.

:46:47. > :46:51.Devolution is about staying part of the United Kingdom and as a Liberal

:46:51. > :46:54.Democrat I am very happy about being engaged in the next stage of

:46:54. > :46:59.this debate. I have just helped deliver the new set of powers to

:46:59. > :47:03.the Scottish Parliament that will be handed over the next few years.

:47:03. > :47:07.We are still actively engaged in devolution. The proposition to us,

:47:07. > :47:10.as a result of the Scottish National Party's victory in last

:47:10. > :47:14.year's elections, is that we determine our future within the

:47:14. > :47:17.United Kingdom. If we look at the register for 16

:47:17. > :47:22.and 17-year-old, but you just had that over to the Scottish

:47:22. > :47:27.Government to sort out? You will see all of the detail tomorrow. The

:47:27. > :47:30.important point here is that any detail about to his voting into is

:47:30. > :47:35.not must be in the referendum Bill that the Scottish Government will

:47:35. > :47:41.put to the parliament in due course. Again as a Liberal Democrat I do

:47:41. > :47:44.not have a tough problem with 16 or 17 also been involved in the

:47:44. > :47:47.election, or referenda, but I except that at Westminster level

:47:47. > :47:51.there is no consensus between the parties and you need that to be

:47:51. > :47:55.able to move on. The arguments, if that is the argument team-mate,

:47:55. > :47:59.will have to come from the Scottish Government as it presents this bill.

:47:59. > :48:03.We will see the detailed in due course. That is interesting,

:48:03. > :48:06.because if it ends up in a mess and if there is not a watertight

:48:06. > :48:11.franchise, that some 16 and 17- year-olds say that this was not

:48:11. > :48:14.fair to us, that is another potential challenge, isn't it?

:48:14. > :48:18.is an important point that must be dealt with by the Scottish

:48:18. > :48:22.Government and by the scrutiny of the Scottish Parliament. I am sure

:48:22. > :48:27.that this will happen over the course of the next few months.

:48:27. > :48:32.Right now what we are able to agree on is the fact that we will have an

:48:32. > :48:36.independence referendum, that we will resolve it by the end of 2014

:48:36. > :48:40.and we will ensure that we are doing get on the basis of the fair

:48:40. > :48:45.rules recognised by people for length and breadth of the country.

:48:45. > :48:48.Frankly, finally, we will get on to that big debate. What I would say

:48:48. > :48:53.is the most important bit of this. That Scotland is so much better off

:48:53. > :48:59.as part of the United Kingdom, its opportunities are so much greater.

:48:59. > :49:02.More secure, and it would have more cloud in the world. We will debate

:49:02. > :49:07.this and I look forward to it. Or on the programme earlier,

:49:07. > :49:09.Alistair Darling said that he had concerns about the role of the

:49:09. > :49:12.electoral commission, that it should have been much more firm.

:49:12. > :49:16.think the important point and I appreciate that people have not yet

:49:16. > :49:22.seen the detail, is that to have the little commission as a

:49:22. > :49:26.recognised body right at the heart of this process of the referendum,

:49:26. > :49:31.on determine the question of campaign finance and so on. I think

:49:31. > :49:34.that it is very important and it is to the strength of the agreement

:49:34. > :49:38.that the Scottish Government recognise this, and they do. There

:49:38. > :49:43.will be a proper place for this and so all sides of the debate will be

:49:43. > :49:46.able to see our first set of rules that allow them to make their case

:49:46. > :49:50.and confidence. But the electoral commission, as

:49:51. > :49:55.things stand, cannot determine the question or veto a question. They

:49:55. > :50:00.have never been able to do that in the United Kingdom context. And

:50:00. > :50:04.they only ever do, and quite rightly, make that judgement and I

:50:04. > :50:08.apologise for the technical term, but the intelligibility of the

:50:08. > :50:11.question. Essentially about its neutrality. That process is one

:50:11. > :50:14.that the Scottish Government is committing itself to, and I think

:50:14. > :50:19.it is important that they play the same role in the Scottish context

:50:19. > :50:23.as they do in any other part of the date Kingdom and when we have UK-

:50:23. > :50:26.wide referendum. Sometimes, Westminster is very reluctant to

:50:26. > :50:36.ignore and Livestock Commission ruling, that might not be the case

:50:36. > :50:43.

:50:43. > :50:47.The Electoral Commission has a strong reputation amongst political

:50:47. > :50:52.parties, the media and other people involved in any electoral contest.

:50:52. > :50:56.It is good that they're going to be central to this and I look forward

:50:56. > :51:04.to them taking on the normal engagement in this whole referendum

:51:04. > :51:11.process. What should happen about funding?

:51:11. > :51:16.The campaign finance, the rules and regulations of the process, the

:51:16. > :51:21.detail on that will be spelt out tomorrow. In the same way that the

:51:21. > :51:24.Electoral Commission has a role in the question setting, they also

:51:24. > :51:28.have a very important role in determining what campaign finance

:51:28. > :51:33.should be about. When people see the detail tomorrow, they will be

:51:33. > :51:42.able to see what both governments envisage is them playing exactly

:51:42. > :51:49.the same role as far as the campaign finances concerns as they

:51:49. > :51:54.would in any other point What does a no vote mean for the Westminster

:51:54. > :52:01.Government? We want to see Scotland continue as

:52:01. > :52:04.part of the United Kingdom. We have more there economic security and we

:52:04. > :52:09.are almost secured. Yes, but what has a no vote

:52:09. > :52:13.actually mean in terms of what else will come to Scotland.

:52:13. > :52:18.Between Scotland will stay within the United Kingdom. Separates to

:52:18. > :52:22.the debate on independence, I, as a Liberal Democrat, will be continued

:52:22. > :52:25.into debate how we deliver further powers to the Scottish Parliament

:52:25. > :52:31.answer the ones that we are in the process of transferring as a result

:52:31. > :52:34.of the new Scotland Act. But what does it mean to the

:52:34. > :52:39.Westminster coalition wants the leverage of a yes vote has gone,

:52:39. > :52:43.what is this kind for in Westminster?

:52:43. > :52:47.The important point is that both coalition parties and the

:52:47. > :52:52.opposition are keen to ensure that we have a proper referendum and we

:52:52. > :52:56.get a decisive outcome. We are determined to do all that. As to

:52:56. > :52:59.the propositions that individual parts of the coalition and the

:52:59. > :53:03.Labour Party will put forward to the Scottish electorate at the next

:53:03. > :53:08.election, that is still being worked through. We are setting out

:53:08. > :53:11.our stall on that of the next couple of weeks. We want to see a

:53:11. > :53:16.debate flourish. There I am confident that just as it did in

:53:16. > :53:19.the 70s, 80s and 90s and in the last decade to create a new cars

:53:19. > :53:23.that we're transferring, so again we will debate the future of the

:53:23. > :53:26.devolution, come up with her there are some get that endorsed by the

:53:26. > :53:29.electorate. And we will know all that between

:53:30. > :53:33.2014? We're already put in her day --

:53:33. > :53:36.ideas out there and we're report others doing that, too.

:53:36. > :53:43.Listening to that with me is the Deputy First Minister, Nicola

:53:43. > :53:48.Sturgeon. You referendum consultation with

:53:48. > :53:53.the public, 26,000 responses, what does it say?

:53:53. > :53:57.I have not yet seen the final analysis. It has taken some time to

:53:57. > :54:02.independently verified and analyse that consultation. We are committed

:54:02. > :54:07.to publishing that the end of this month. The agreement that that will

:54:07. > :54:10.be signed if they prove that by the First Minister and Prime Minister

:54:10. > :54:14.tomorrow is for a Section 30 order that will transfer power to the

:54:14. > :54:18.Scottish Parliament. It will then be for the Scottish Parliament to

:54:18. > :54:21.decide the date, the question, the franchise for the referendum and

:54:21. > :54:25.the consultation will be very influential in the Scottish

:54:25. > :54:31.Parliament reaching that decisions. But the key issue is, there's not

:54:31. > :54:34.going to be a second question. If the majority of people and has

:54:34. > :54:38.consultation said that if they wanted the middle ground for the

:54:38. > :54:44.second question, you have either ignored or dismissed it.

:54:44. > :54:48.In any negotiation, they require us to be compromised. There has been

:54:48. > :54:51.compromised in this negotiation on both sides, but the outcome we have

:54:51. > :54:55.reached is one where the guarantees in my view that this is a

:54:55. > :54:59.referendum that will be made in Scotland. That has a good out, and

:54:59. > :55:02.one that allows us to get on with discussing the substance of why

:55:02. > :55:08.Scotland should be an independent country.

:55:08. > :55:13.To be clear, did you want one question or two?

:55:13. > :55:16.The SNP have never argued for a second question. We did say that we

:55:16. > :55:19.thought that should not be prematurely ruled out and because

:55:19. > :55:24.that is was best for that decision to be taken by a Scottish

:55:24. > :55:28.Parliament. But any negotiation will involve compromises and this

:55:28. > :55:32.was the difference. Our preferred option is independence on the

:55:32. > :55:36.ballot paper. Do you accept that some somewhat

:55:36. > :55:40.disingenuous, given the amount of time the First Minister spent

:55:40. > :55:46.saying that it was any proper that there would be a second question?

:55:46. > :55:48.That is not what he said. He said that giving many people in Scotland

:55:48. > :55:52.favour more powers short of independence, then Westminster

:55:52. > :55:55.should not be allowed to rule that out. We argued that that was a

:55:55. > :56:00.decision best taken and the Scottish Parliament. We have

:56:00. > :56:03.compromised, as of the Westminster Government, but I'm very satisfied

:56:03. > :56:07.that the outcome of these negotiations is the guarantee of

:56:07. > :56:10.the referendum made in Scotland. If you cast your mind back to the

:56:10. > :56:15.start of this year, David Cameron Watt have to dictate the timing,

:56:15. > :56:18.the wording of the question and the franchise. As a result of our

:56:18. > :56:22.negotiations, the agreement that will be signed tomorrow will be

:56:22. > :56:29.firmly made in Scotland. He if there is a no vote, what is

:56:29. > :56:33.the SNP do? By we are confident that we will secure a Yes vote.

:56:33. > :56:37.As we go through the months and years ahead, as the arguments are

:56:37. > :56:44.set out, as people realise that the only way to secure a change is to

:56:44. > :56:47.get yes vote... And if there is a no vote?

:56:47. > :56:50.I am going to concentrate on winning support and persuading

:56:50. > :56:55.people to vote Yes in the referendum. That is the only way we

:56:55. > :57:00.can get control of Scotland's review Morse's -- resources and

:57:00. > :57:03.build a fair society. The day after the referendum vote,

:57:03. > :57:09.you be the Government of Scotland. People are entitled to know what

:57:09. > :57:12.you do. To the SNP leadership say, OK, there is a no vote, but we are

:57:12. > :57:16.going to head up the campaign for extra powers, that is what I'm

:57:16. > :57:19.trying to establish. We will continue to be the

:57:19. > :57:24.Government of Scotland, but we are two years out from the Independent

:57:24. > :57:27.referendum. I will spend my energies campaigning for a yes vote

:57:27. > :57:31.and I am confident that that will be achieved.

:57:31. > :57:34.You're the Government of Scotland. This is not a party issue. People

:57:34. > :57:38.have a right so know what will happen if it goes against you.

:57:38. > :57:43.I will continue to argue the case for independence and for more

:57:43. > :57:46.powers. But the nine men, I will be campaigning fully for a Yes vote in

:57:46. > :57:55.that independence referendum and the onus is on the other parties,

:57:55. > :57:59.those containing for a no vote, to say what a no vote means. What they

:57:59. > :58:03.have said, and no vote means no change in rolling back the process

:58:03. > :58:08.from devolution. Westminster will be very happy to

:58:08. > :58:11.pass these par so that you, because it is potentially messy. It could

:58:11. > :58:14.be difficult to get this legislation water tight and there

:58:14. > :58:18.could be challenged on the road if you do not do that.

:58:18. > :58:21.I do not accept that that is beyond our capability. The important thing

:58:21. > :58:26.now is that it will be for the Scottish Parliament to determine

:58:26. > :58:29.the franchise. This is not some copulation about who stands to

:58:29. > :58:33.benefit from 16 year olds and 17- year-old voting. It is right that

:58:33. > :58:38.people begin join the army, have children, pay taxes, should also

:58:38. > :58:43.have a say in the future of their country. Where we have had the

:58:43. > :58:46.power to do so, the Scottish Government has already extended the

:58:46. > :58:49.franchise to 16.17 euros Old. I have piloted health boards should

:58:49. > :58:53.Scottish Parliament and 16-year-old and 17-year-old Scot the right to

:58:53. > :58:57.vote there. It is for the Scottish Parliament to determine whether it

:58:57. > :59:00.agrees that that and wants to do that and the basis on was that

:59:00. > :59:03.franchises extended. She did be extended to other

:59:03. > :59:08.elections? Yes.

:59:08. > :59:11.You now have two years to the boat, but your actual prospectus does not

:59:11. > :59:17.come out until autumn next year. If we are to have an informed debate,

:59:17. > :59:21.we should have it out sooner. We have said the white paper will

:59:21. > :59:25.be published in the autumn of next year. But this is a live debate.

:59:25. > :59:29.After we get the process issues out of the bay, we will get on fully to

:59:29. > :59:34.the substance. I am looking forward to that. In the last couple of

:59:34. > :59:38.weeks, what we have seen with the pronouncements of Ruth Davidson and

:59:38. > :59:41.Johann Lamont, from a Labour and Tory prospective, what they have a

:59:41. > :59:45.prospective around his will win back some of the processes of

:59:45. > :59:49.devolution. Both of them think pensioners should lose their bus

:59:49. > :59:52.passes and that the prescriptions and free personal care should go. I

:59:52. > :59:56.once got wants to have control of its own resources so we can choose

:59:56. > :00:00.to invest in these things rather than nuclear weapons. I am

:00:00. > :00:04.thoroughly looking forward to the debate.

:00:04. > :00:08.You are in campaign mode. You're not in Government. You will not

:00:08. > :00:12.take any difficult decisions, even if they're in Scotland's best

:00:12. > :00:15.interests. That is nonsense. The SNP has

:00:15. > :00:19.governed for five years. Recovered for four years and then won a

:00:19. > :00:23.majority. People know that we are a good Government and a Government

:00:23. > :00:28.that always governs and Scotland's interest. We will continue to do

:00:28. > :00:30.that. But there's relationship between our ability to govern the

:00:30. > :00:33.way we want to govern and state decisions that run the best

:00:33. > :00:36.interests of the Scottish people and having the parts that will

:00:37. > :00:40.enable us to do that. Coming up soon...

:00:40. > :00:44.We'll be hearing from the Yes and No campaigns, looking ahead to how

:00:44. > :00:49.they are going to play it. What about those who favoured the

:00:49. > :00:53.middle ground, the devo supporters. Where will their votes go now?

:00:53. > :00:54.And what will be the ripple effect of the referendum be on other parts

:00:54. > :00:58.of the UK? Your watching Sunday Politics

:00:58. > :01:00.Scotland and the time is 12.15. So let's cross now for the news at

:01:00. > :01:05.noon with Tim Wilcox and Andrew Kerr.

:01:05. > :01:14.Good afternoon. Five Royal Marines were charged

:01:14. > :01:19.with murder. The Ministry of Defence our reporter is there.

:01:19. > :01:21.This is the UniChem troubling case for the Ministry of Defence. It is

:01:21. > :01:27.the first time that British service personnel on operations in

:01:27. > :01:30.Afghanistan have been charged with murder. The alleged murder took

:01:30. > :01:35.place in Helmand province last year at a time when the men of 3

:01:35. > :01:39.Commando were out on patrol. There was an engagement at or fire fight

:01:39. > :01:42.with an insurgent. It is understood the Royal Military Police have

:01:42. > :01:47.obtained video footage from that time which shows British personnel

:01:47. > :01:51.discussing what to do with a captured and wanted man. Night that

:01:51. > :01:53.five marines have been charged, the Defence Secretary would only say it

:01:53. > :01:57.all related to the question of whether the rules of war had been

:01:57. > :02:00.properly followed. We are very determined the rules of engagement

:02:00. > :02:05.will be followed, that any abuse will be dealt with through the

:02:05. > :02:07.normal processes of service justice and that is what is happening.

:02:07. > :02:13.The those rules of engagement set out the circumstances in which

:02:13. > :02:17.British forces can open fire. Though never made public, the rules

:02:17. > :02:20.mean that in most circumstances, British forces can only open fire

:02:20. > :02:25.when incorrect contact with the enemy or when there is a threat of

:02:25. > :02:30.imminent attack. This case is now with the director of services

:02:30. > :02:34.Prosecutions, who is likely to recommend a military trial that

:02:34. > :02:39.will take place behind closed doors. That court would have the similar

:02:39. > :02:45.sentencing powers to any criminal court in the UK, essentially, if

:02:45. > :02:50.they are found guilty, they could be sentenced to life.

:02:50. > :02:53.It has emerged that BBC executives questioned to me Savell about

:02:53. > :03:00.allegations he had abused young girls. He former head of Radio 1

:03:00. > :03:07.said he asked the former presenter about rumours of abuse and 1970s.

:03:07. > :03:11.Jimmy Savell was a DJ at Radio 1 from 1969 to 1989. For the first

:03:11. > :03:15.time, we have learnt that questions were put to him by a senior

:03:15. > :03:19.executive about rumours that he was having an appropriate relationships

:03:19. > :03:25.with under-aged girls. Derek shimmery was the Controller of the

:03:25. > :03:31.network at that time and says he challenged the DJ about the rumours.

:03:31. > :03:34.I told him about the rumours. He said it was nonsense. It is easy

:03:34. > :03:39.now to say. How could you just believe him just like that? But

:03:39. > :03:44.there was no reason to disbelieve him. He was the sort of man that

:03:44. > :03:48.attracted rumours, after all. However, another former Radio 1

:03:48. > :03:53.executive has described that meeting as a formal one. The BBC

:03:53. > :04:00.says the issues raised here will be looked into as part of its two

:04:00. > :04:04.independent reviews. The Defence Secretary has said

:04:04. > :04:07.allegations that former military chiefs offered to help our and

:04:07. > :04:11.companies with defence contracts are deeply damaging. The Sunday

:04:11. > :04:15.Times secretly filmed six former military leaders. Some left Office

:04:15. > :04:20.and the past two years and are subject to rules banning lobbying.

:04:20. > :04:26.That is all the news from I. There will be more news on BBC One at

:04:26. > :04:28.6:25pm. The Scottish Government and the

:04:28. > :04:30.Scottish Secretary have been speaking on this programme about

:04:30. > :04:34.the independence referendum ahead of tomorrow's meeting between the

:04:34. > :04:36.First Minister and the Prime Minister in Edinburgh. They're due

:04:36. > :04:39.to approve a deal on the staging of the ballot.

:04:39. > :04:41.Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she believes they've

:04:41. > :04:44.reached a position which guarantees a referendum made in Scotland.

:04:44. > :04:46.Scots Secretary, Michael Moore, said the agreement will be the

:04:46. > :04:49.green light for the most important decision people in Scotland will

:04:49. > :04:51.ever have to make. A former SNP leader has attacked

:04:51. > :04:54.the Scottish Government's plans to legalise gay marriage. At the

:04:54. > :04:57.party's conference in Perth later this week, Gordon Wilson, who led

:04:57. > :05:01.the party in the 1980s, will tell a fringe meeting that MSPs risk

:05:01. > :05:10.losing their seats if they support the move. He told BBC Scotland he

:05:10. > :05:15.believes the plans are a step towards fascism. Those are strong

:05:15. > :05:20.words and every fascist regime begins in a very minor way. They

:05:20. > :05:24.take decisions which insist that the state alone has the say over

:05:24. > :05:28.conscience and that the public have to do as they're told.

:05:28. > :05:33.In tennis, Andy Murray is taking on Novak Djokovic in the final of the

:05:33. > :05:42.Shanghai Masters. This is the third sucessive year Murray has made the

:05:42. > :05:45.final of the tournament. It was one on a tie-break and it is now one

:05:45. > :05:54.set all. And here's Judith Ralston with the

:05:54. > :05:59.A settled couple of days coming up, but we are still seeing some

:05:59. > :06:02.showers across more northern and eastern parts of Scotland. Some

:06:02. > :06:07.bright as coming through and some lovely spells of sunshine across

:06:07. > :06:12.western Scotland towards the North West Highlands. Highs this

:06:12. > :06:16.afternoon of around 11 Celsius. Across more northern areas, a few

:06:16. > :06:26.degrees lower. Feeling cool with a freshening north-easterly wind.

:06:26. > :06:32.

:06:32. > :06:37.That's all for now, I'll hand you Has a single question actually

:06:37. > :06:43.clear on muddy the waters in the referendum issue? Here is Professor

:06:43. > :06:46.James Mitchell. The question what is pit, a simple question,

:06:46. > :06:51.independent or not independence, leaves open the question as to what

:06:51. > :06:55.those who want more powers should too. I have a great worry that the

:06:55. > :06:59.results of the referendum vote will be open to dispute. It is possible

:06:59. > :07:03.that there could be a majority for yes, which would include people who

:07:03. > :07:07.have voted yes, not because they want independence but because they

:07:07. > :07:12.want more powers and this has not ended -- this is not available. It

:07:12. > :07:16.is equally likely that there will be a majority of no porters who

:07:16. > :07:21.include those two want more powers but do not want the status quo. How

:07:21. > :07:25.to reinterpret that? We must have a referendum that is beyond dispute.

:07:25. > :07:30.How the integrity result, I'm afraid, that is not likely to

:07:30. > :07:33.happen without more information. you think the Devo Max campaign

:07:33. > :07:38.will then wither on the vine, to they have a momentum that will keep

:07:38. > :07:43.them going? I do not think that Devo Max, the more powers position,

:07:43. > :07:48.will lose momentum. For the moment, they will have -- it will be

:07:48. > :07:52.marginalised to some extent. Clearly, that issue, that range of

:07:52. > :07:57.options still exist. They will have difficulty finding space in this

:07:57. > :08:01.referendum, because this referendum is polarised. The likelihood is

:08:01. > :08:05.that this issue will remain alive so long as the public want that, at

:08:05. > :08:11.a sizable public -- a sizable part of the public do want something

:08:11. > :08:15.between the status quo and independence. Devo Max, more powers

:08:15. > :08:18.that all the rest of it, it is all very a clear and it has to be said

:08:18. > :08:22.that advocates of this middle position will have to clarify that.

:08:22. > :08:27.That is for sure. There is a lot of clarification required across the

:08:27. > :08:31.board from all sides in this debate. What else could be a factor in this

:08:31. > :08:36.environment? Do you expect it to be fairly unpleasant and difficult in

:08:36. > :08:39.this circumstance? I think that emotions will be running high in

:08:39. > :08:42.the run-up to this referendum and shooting as referendum. The good

:08:43. > :08:47.thing about the referendum, we were told, is that we can resolve that

:08:47. > :08:51.and that people will except the wishes as expressed it in the

:08:51. > :08:55.referendum by the people. Those emotions will continue to run high

:08:55. > :08:59.and will perhaps run a far higher if there is dispute. Let's face it,

:08:59. > :09:02.if there is dispute than no side will concede that they have lost,

:09:02. > :09:05.and if that is the case then remove them to very difficult territory,

:09:05. > :09:10.and would not see dangerous territory but difficult territory

:09:10. > :09:13.at a time when we must move on and accept whatever the result is. We

:09:13. > :09:18.must have a clear result and I'm afraid I cannot see that it will

:09:18. > :09:21.necessarily happen. Looking back, whose strategy has been the most

:09:21. > :09:25.successful? In a way, we have arrived as this referendum almost

:09:25. > :09:29.by accident. The SNP supporter the referendum and have consistently

:09:29. > :09:33.supported a referendum over a long number of years, but they do not

:09:34. > :09:37.think the SNP ever expected prior to the 20 will have an election

:09:37. > :09:41.that they would be in this position. The other parties did not want a

:09:41. > :09:44.referendum, and the one thing that is for sure is that Scotland's

:09:44. > :09:48.constitutional status will be at the forefront of politics for the

:09:48. > :09:51.next few years. My suspicion is that it will not be resolved and

:09:51. > :09:56.that referendum. In assess, in terms of the issue been on the

:09:56. > :10:00.agenda, that works to the advantage of those who want change. However,

:10:00. > :10:04.they should not think they have won this because there could be a long

:10:04. > :10:09.haul before we reach a resolution and before even reach more power

:10:09. > :10:13.has been granted to Scotland. So, they are not that many winners in

:10:13. > :10:19.this. We now speak to the chief executive

:10:19. > :10:26.of the EDS Scotland campaign and amassed savoir who is the chief

:10:26. > :10:29.executive of Scottish Labour. Given what we understand of this

:10:29. > :10:35.deal, when you look at the Better Together interests, argue agreeing

:10:35. > :10:38.that this is a good deal at fair contest? I welcome that progress

:10:38. > :10:43.has been made, all of us what to get past the process arguments and

:10:43. > :10:46.on to the substance of the debate. Some detail must be laid out about

:10:46. > :10:51.campaign finance but it is right that we do have agreement between

:10:51. > :10:54.both governments, it gives us a legally-binding referendum. Let's

:10:54. > :10:58.let the little commission work out the details of this. We cannot have

:10:58. > :11:01.one party or individual be both the referee and one of the players.

:11:01. > :11:05.Let's have the electoral commission look after the process and get on

:11:05. > :11:09.to the substance of the debate. We're in a stronger position than

:11:09. > :11:15.the Yes Scotland campaign. Let's be clear about the ruling, what you

:11:15. > :11:19.think it should be at what you think it might be? I have my few

:11:19. > :11:25.into what the result should be and Blair will have his opinion on what

:11:25. > :11:29.he was the result to be, but now we must decide who sets the rules of

:11:29. > :11:34.the referendum. It is look right nasty little commission it looks at

:11:34. > :11:37.the rules, it is right that the electoral commission decides what

:11:37. > :11:44.the limits should be and the finance. Let the politicians of

:11:44. > :11:48.both campaigns focus on three arguments. Do you have concerns

:11:48. > :11:52.about this? The Alex Salmond has his way he would want to pick the

:11:52. > :11:56.franchise, packed a question, but the date, pack the spending limits.

:11:57. > :12:03.He wants to be a referee, set the rules and be one of the players. I

:12:03. > :12:08.do not think that is fair. Blair? Of the point of view of the Yes

:12:08. > :12:11.Scotland campaign, it is fantastic to be at this stage. We can now set

:12:11. > :12:15.out a compelling case for Scottish independence. We relish the fact

:12:15. > :12:19.that we have this historic opportunity to have the -- to be

:12:19. > :12:22.the first generation of Scottish people who have the self

:12:22. > :12:25.determination to vote on the future of Scotland. We are ready to a vote

:12:26. > :12:30.on this campaign. The people of Scotland are ready to share the

:12:30. > :12:34.issues properly. I am looking forward to the next two years.

:12:34. > :12:38.about funding? Campaign funding and general financing for this. The

:12:38. > :12:42.actual time scale on when the rules should kick in on spending. Where

:12:43. > :12:47.have you got to? From our point of the UBR in an unregulated period.

:12:47. > :12:52.As a campaign they are tried to bring in money to run a campaign of

:12:52. > :12:55.this scale and quality that this issue demands. Our focus is to make

:12:55. > :13:01.sure we have the funding to do justice to this cause. She did the

:13:01. > :13:04.cat? Not at this stage, but during the controlled 16 week period there

:13:04. > :13:08.should be caps, and now there should be a discussion as to what

:13:08. > :13:12.level of spending as appropriate. The key thing that I think everyone

:13:12. > :13:17.would want to see is that there is a fair process and outcome so that

:13:17. > :13:20.both sides during the formal period, at 16 week period prior to the vote,

:13:20. > :13:26.are working on a level playing field and spending equivalent sums

:13:26. > :13:31.of money. So the three big parties of Better Together should not be

:13:31. > :13:35.allocated larger funding on basis of their vote? That to be fair?

:13:35. > :13:39.That is for the electoral commission to decide. Let the

:13:39. > :13:42.electoral commission decide. There will be heated debate over the next

:13:42. > :13:47.few years as to whether we are better off as part of the United

:13:47. > :13:52.Kingdom or not. West evader politics on it, fair enough, but do

:13:52. > :13:57.not divide her country. We must make sure that the country comes

:13:57. > :14:01.behind affair and legal referendum that no one can dispute. I hope

:14:01. > :14:04.that this decision is to stay part of the UK, and they hope that all

:14:04. > :14:09.sides had been come together to make sure that we have a fairer and

:14:09. > :14:12.more prosperous Scotland. As James Mitchell says, is the danger not

:14:12. > :14:17.that there will be no very large one way or the other boat and we

:14:17. > :14:23.could be in an extremely divisive time? Either side will be able to

:14:23. > :14:28.interpret this whatever way they want. I am for a majority in favour

:14:28. > :14:33.of independence and 2014. What if there is not? In the last few

:14:33. > :14:36.months, some people have tuned out a little bit. They want the

:14:36. > :14:39.politicians to sort out the mechanics, then we will engage with

:14:39. > :14:42.the debate. Now we have the mechanics partly determined, the

:14:42. > :14:48.compelling case for independence over the next few tears will give

:14:48. > :14:51.us a majority in 2014. Have the SNP lost momentum because of the amount

:14:51. > :14:55.of time it has taken? They had tremendous momentum after the

:14:55. > :15:00.Holyrood results, but the latest Paul is against them. I do not

:15:00. > :15:04.speak for the SNP, but from the Yes Scott a prospective... The SNP a

:15:04. > :15:08.major part of this campaign, they have lost momentum. You fundamental

:15:08. > :15:13.key players have lost political momentum. That momentum has

:15:13. > :15:16.dissipated. The Yes Scotland campaign has gained a great deal of

:15:16. > :15:20.momentum lately. We have laid the groundwork for the biggest campaign

:15:20. > :15:25.that Scotland will have ever seen. We have put together a fantastic

:15:25. > :15:30.campaign team. We have been lame this ground work, we have recently

:15:30. > :15:34.had the Scottish Green Party committee to this campaign. We have

:15:34. > :15:37.a significant individuals committing to the campaign like

:15:37. > :15:42.Scotland's most successful businessman. The momentum is with

:15:42. > :15:45.us. The polls are showing that this is not the case. The reason that

:15:45. > :15:49.momentum has fallen for the pro- independence camp is not because of

:15:49. > :15:53.the process accounts, it is because of the dishonesty in terms of the

:15:53. > :15:56.arguments for independence. One of the first press releases that

:15:56. > :16:01.letter in as chairman of the Yes campaign was to promise honesty and

:16:01. > :16:04.transparency. We have not have that. Will we see the publishing about

:16:04. > :16:10.the legal advice as to whether Scotland will be a member of the

:16:10. > :16:14.you? Know we have not. We have seen the Yes campaign stop that

:16:14. > :16:18.information being shared. Blair said he is but a spokesman for the

:16:18. > :16:22.SNP, but this as an SNP campaign in everything but name. We must make

:16:22. > :16:26.sure that we expose the real arguments that the SNP are saying,

:16:26. > :16:30.decide what independence will look like and what we cannot have is a

:16:30. > :16:33.kind of heady Ferry attitude from the SNP. That all of the things

:16:33. > :16:38.that you like will stay the same manner of things you do not will

:16:38. > :16:45.lot. Will be no prior to the referendum exactly what role will

:16:45. > :16:49.mean a further referenda? Absolutely. Better Together have

:16:49. > :16:53.adopted do to explain why you will be better off as part of it Kingdom.

:16:53. > :16:56.It is the job of the political party to set out have visit of

:16:56. > :17:03.Scotland for the future. My vision of Scotland is different from

:17:03. > :17:06.Blair's will thus be available to Scotland before 2014? We will start

:17:06. > :17:10.talking about the real challenges facing Scotland, which Johann

:17:10. > :17:14.Lamont has already done in the past week to ten days, but we'll talk

:17:14. > :17:17.about these challenges in the run- up to 2014. The no campaign had

:17:17. > :17:21.demonstrated no vision or ambition for Scott a battle, what we know is

:17:21. > :17:25.that the only thing that is holding it together is the desire to hold

:17:25. > :17:30.Scotland back. We have set out and will continue to set out a very

:17:30. > :17:35.positive vision of what Scotland can do and what copper can be.

:17:35. > :17:38.There are important economic arguments in favour of independence.

:17:38. > :17:44.The compelling Archant is the Scottish desire for a fairer and

:17:44. > :17:49.more equal society. -- a compelling argument. Benighted kingdom has

:17:49. > :17:53.become a more unfair and unequal society.

:17:53. > :17:56.Blair Jenkins, what you will set out is a negotiating position that

:17:56. > :18:02.you may are may not be able to deliver. I am not sure what you

:18:02. > :18:05.mean. In terms of the proposition, he say that if you vote yes, then X

:18:06. > :18:09.Y and Z will happen. He cannot actually say that X Y and Z will

:18:09. > :18:12.happen because you do not know what party will be in power, if he did

:18:12. > :18:17.not know the outcome of the negotiations. That is called

:18:17. > :18:22.democracy. Whichever party wins the referendum, the first General

:18:22. > :18:27.Election of Scotland will be up to the people of Scotland. There are

:18:27. > :18:31.no insurmountable obstacles. Other than the people Scotland wishing to

:18:31. > :18:35.be independent. This is the point, this is a real chance for Labour,

:18:35. > :18:39.if you are proactive and have a real positive vision, you could do

:18:39. > :18:43.very well and 2016. The referendum is not end game for the Labour

:18:43. > :18:48.Party. The endgame for the Labour Party is to create a more fair and

:18:48. > :18:52.equal society. Independence is the endgame for the SNP. There are

:18:52. > :18:56.talks about transparency, Blair is try to tell us whether or not he

:18:56. > :18:59.believes we should have the policy of the legal advice on the EU,

:18:59. > :19:02.perhaps he should tell us about the advice from the Treasury about

:19:02. > :19:06.whether the Bank of England would be a pack of last resort, whether

:19:06. > :19:10.we would still have the financial services authority regulation from

:19:10. > :19:13.across the native kingdom? These questions still me to be answered.

:19:13. > :19:16.The great thing about having two years is that a lot of the

:19:16. > :19:21.distortion and the misinformation that has pitted by the no campaign

:19:21. > :19:25.can be overcome. There is no question that Scotland will

:19:25. > :19:28.continue to be part of the European Union. There is no issue about that

:19:28. > :19:32.whatsoever. What was the advice? The great task of the next two

:19:32. > :19:35.years is to overcome a lot of the distortion and misinformation. The

:19:35. > :19:39.goal which today shows that the majority news in favour of

:19:39. > :19:44.independence if they believe that Scotland will be financially better

:19:44. > :19:54.off, this Dimitri to open people are to the second. We genuinely are

:19:54. > :19:55.

:19:55. > :20:05.at a time. He will come back to $:/STARTFEED

:20:05. > :20:09.Westminster will take the first critical step of laying down a

:20:09. > :20:13.section 30 order, which gives Holyrood a part to hold a

:20:13. > :20:17.referendum by the end of 2014. Later this month, the results of

:20:17. > :20:21.the Scottish Government's independence consultation, which

:20:21. > :20:25.received 26,000 responses. Electoral Commission will test the

:20:25. > :20:29.fairness and clarity of the question. Early next year, having

:20:29. > :20:33.been through the Commons and the house of Lords, the section 30

:20:33. > :20:37.order must be agreed by the Privy Council, which bats the process

:20:37. > :20:41.into Holyrood's Court, paving the way for a referendum Bill which

:20:41. > :20:48.will set out the rules for the ballot. It then makes its way

:20:48. > :20:51.through Holyrood. If voted through their MSPs of stage three, at it

:20:52. > :20:56.receives Royal Assent. The Scottish Government publish a white paper,

:20:56. > :21:00.what they call a prospectus for independence, expects other parties

:21:01. > :21:04.to follow suit with their future visions of Scotland. The campaign

:21:04. > :21:11.intensified in the summer of 2014 as the official 16 the electoral

:21:11. > :21:14.period gets under way. Leading up to that all-important ballot,

:21:14. > :21:17.expected in October 2014. The result is anyone's guess, but of

:21:17. > :21:23.Scotland votes yes, the Scottish Government will have a mandate to

:21:23. > :21:28.begin negotiations for Westminster. The referendum results aside, there

:21:28. > :21:35.will be a UK general election in 20th May 15. A Holyrood election

:21:35. > :21:40.the following year. But for what? Asked first Government for the

:21:40. > :21:43.Independent Scott and up or continue to be governed by the UK.

:21:43. > :21:45.But here to give us some more detail the psephologist John

:21:45. > :21:49.Curtice. Now John, we asked you to do some

:21:49. > :21:52.sums for us, to find out how many more people could vote if 16 and 17

:21:52. > :21:56.year olds become eligible. According to the latest register,

:21:56. > :22:00.there are nearly 4 million people aged 18 and over eligible to vote.

:22:00. > :22:03.There are also just over 44,000 17- year-olds. If we assume the same

:22:03. > :22:06.number of 16-year-olds manage to make it on to the register, that

:22:06. > :22:09.would mean a total electorate of just over 4 million, of which

:22:09. > :22:19.88,682 would be 16 and 17-year-olds, an increase of 2.2% of the

:22:19. > :22:29.electorate. Range could go from 2.2% to 2.7% but either way, that's

:22:29. > :22:36.

:22:37. > :22:44.not a significant number. Even if we assume that those voters

:22:44. > :22:47.are more in favour of yes vote, there is no firm evidence for that.

:22:47. > :22:51.Even if you seen their tent 0.4 times likely to vote for

:22:51. > :22:55.independence than anybody else, maybe too 0.5% of the votes will be

:22:55. > :23:01.cast by 16 rolls and 17 year-olds, even if you make that assumption,

:23:01. > :23:05.you have to get 49.75 % of people over 18 to vote Yes before it will

:23:05. > :23:11.make a difference. The probability that this could is actually going

:23:11. > :23:19.to make a difference to the outcome was very unlikely. Frankly, this is

:23:19. > :23:23.a relatively academic question. What about the poor to have been

:23:23. > :23:26.interpreting recently, what are they indicating?

:23:26. > :23:30.If you take all of the opinion polls that have been conducted

:23:30. > :23:38.since May of this year, which in some way or another have asked

:23:38. > :23:41.people how they would vote in the referendum and take out the don't

:23:41. > :23:44.knows and the moment says and look at what these polls are pointing to

:23:44. > :23:50.in terms of the referendum result. In the terms of the most recent

:23:50. > :23:54.polls, there are 37% yes and 62% know. As you can see from the

:23:54. > :23:58.graphic, since last year, there has actually been something of a

:23:58. > :24:03.slippage in the support for yes. The polls conducted between May and

:24:03. > :24:08.December last year, we had 41% in favour of yes. But slipped to 40 in

:24:08. > :24:14.the first four months of this year and now it is down to 37%. It is a

:24:14. > :24:19.3-2 split at the moment, were the Yes side is moving its -- are

:24:19. > :24:23.losing ground. Do what about funding issues?

:24:23. > :24:27.In his consultation paper published back in January, the Scottish

:24:27. > :24:30.Government was proposing very tight funding limits. For example, the

:24:30. > :24:34.amount of money the official campaigns can spend will be less

:24:34. > :24:37.than half the amount of money the parties can spend on appalling

:24:37. > :24:40.campaign. They were also suggesting that any party that was inside the

:24:40. > :24:45.Scottish Parliament, irrespective of its size, should be treated

:24:45. > :24:49.equally, which means the Greens should spend as much as the SNP. It

:24:49. > :24:53.looks as if what we're hearing this morning, that line may not be held

:24:53. > :24:56.and that the agreement will say something like, the Electoral

:24:56. > :25:00.Commission will give advice as to what should happen. What we know

:25:00. > :25:08.from the Electoral Commission's response to the Scots Government's

:25:08. > :25:12.consultation in January, they think their limit should be much higher.

:25:12. > :25:16.�1.5 million or official organisations. The SNP is concerns

:25:16. > :25:22.that the higher the spending level, the more a foundation set will be

:25:22. > :25:26.to the union side. What about public funding?

:25:26. > :25:30.Nobody has mentioned this yet. Usually end referendum campaigns in

:25:30. > :25:34.the UK, the official yes and no side of the referendum is given a

:25:34. > :25:38.Mounties of public funding to put forward their arguments. The SNP

:25:38. > :25:42.said they should not happen. The UK Government for silent on the issue.

:25:42. > :25:45.The Electoral Commission says it will happen. We need to make sure

:25:46. > :25:49.that the problem that arose in Wales, that nobody applied to be

:25:49. > :25:53.the official no campaigns are no public funding could happening,

:25:53. > :25:56.that needs to be resolved. Well taxpayers' money be spent on

:25:56. > :26:04.promoting independence are proposing independence, will be

:26:04. > :26:11.wait to see. Tabloid newspaper headlines will be written anyway!

:26:11. > :26:14.Who will foot the bill? We will discover tomorrow that the

:26:14. > :26:18.funding for this referendum, the cost of running it, the cost of

:26:18. > :26:22.trying to enfranchise 16.17 euros rules and any public funding is

:26:23. > :26:27.going to fall within the Scottish block.

:26:27. > :26:31.The role of the Electoral Commission in the question. Do if

:26:31. > :26:34.we could afford to the standard procedure in UK elections, then

:26:34. > :26:39.Electoral Commission will test the question that the SNP have already

:26:39. > :26:43.put forward and they will come back with advice to what the question

:26:43. > :26:47.should be. The Scottish Parliament will not be

:26:47. > :26:51.required to follow that advice, but usually, they should do, but there

:26:51. > :26:56.is one case the UK Government refuse to accept the commission's

:26:56. > :26:59.device. Be set a dangerous precedent, but hopefully they will

:26:59. > :27:03.follow what usually happens, which has told the Electoral Commission's

:27:03. > :27:05.advice. Thank you.

:27:05. > :27:07.So you've heard from the politicians, the campaign groups,

:27:07. > :27:10.the academics and some political commentators. But what about the

:27:10. > :27:14.most powerful group - you, the electorate? We've been to the north,

:27:14. > :27:23.south, east and west of Scotland to gather some opinions. It's an

:27:24. > :27:30.unscientific sample of course, but good fuel for debate. I don't think

:27:30. > :27:35.it's been very well discussed among the politicians and amongst the

:27:35. > :27:41.normal everyday man in the street. This has been going on from time

:27:41. > :27:49.immemorial. It is a good thing for people to

:27:49. > :27:58.have the opportunity to decide, but there should be an option for devo

:27:58. > :28:02.max as well. We should stay as we are. I will not be voting for it.

:28:02. > :28:08.want independence, politically, but I do not want a border between me

:28:08. > :28:18.in England. It should just be yes or no. Scotland should get more

:28:18. > :28:23.powers. I would be quite happy with BS. I believe they should get more

:28:23. > :28:26.or clout in what they decide, but as far as being independent from

:28:26. > :28:35.the rest of the United Kingdom, and I don't think it is a feasible

:28:35. > :28:38.thing. It needs to be done on a gradual basis. If you get more

:28:38. > :28:42.powers in the election, you will end up being independent.

:28:42. > :28:44.Well, where now for the supporters of a second question? Joining me in

:28:44. > :28:47.the studio are Ben Thomson, Chairman of the think-tank Reform

:28:47. > :28:49.Scotland and founding member of Devo Plus, and Martin Sime, the

:28:49. > :28:55.Chief Executive of the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations,

:28:55. > :29:01.who has been advocating the need for a second question. Do you feel

:29:01. > :29:05.you have been led up the garden path?

:29:05. > :29:09.We're disappointed. The biggest problem the second question had is

:29:09. > :29:11.that it would win hands down and would isolate the fundamentalist

:29:12. > :29:14.camps of the essence no and it actually strikes a chord with

:29:14. > :29:20.people and Scotland that they want to see more powers shorter the

:29:20. > :29:25.depends. All four polling evidence suggested that this is the case.

:29:25. > :29:29.Why have the politicians on this? It is back to being a purely

:29:29. > :29:32.political referendum. We have a political fix that suits everyone.

:29:32. > :29:36.Everybody else and you show this morning is very happy with the deal

:29:36. > :29:41.was has been struck. But a significant portion of the

:29:41. > :29:45.population will be disenfranchised. What to make about the SNP

:29:45. > :29:48.consultation on independence, but it is not out yet. What you think

:29:48. > :29:51.it will show? I think it also very wide range of

:29:51. > :29:56.views. People have lots of different visions for the future of

:29:56. > :30:02.Scotland. Everybody will welcome an opportunity to have that debate.

:30:02. > :30:06.But the idea that there can only be one of two answers -- one of two

:30:06. > :30:09.answers, everything having to be seen as a yes or no, strikes me as

:30:09. > :30:13.being simplistic. A those who want more powers, will

:30:13. > :30:17.they vote yes or no? I think the one good silver lining

:30:17. > :30:22.and this is that we have stopped talking about process so much and

:30:22. > :30:27.actually stopped -- started deliver the substance on both sides. Both

:30:27. > :30:32.discovers Government have to set out what yes vote really means. We

:30:32. > :30:35.talked about monetary union, Union of regulators, Union of the head of

:30:35. > :30:40.state, all of these things will have to be worked out. They will be

:30:40. > :30:44.unions in an independent state. The other three parties will have to

:30:44. > :30:47.talk about moving beyond where a bed lackeys. The will of the people

:30:47. > :30:54.may be mad. In those discussions, we are heading from both them some

:30:54. > :30:58.to the centre, which is where we have always been.

:30:58. > :31:03.Do you think it will be more attractive to people?

:31:03. > :31:07.30% of people are fully supportive of independence, 30% just what the

:31:07. > :31:11.status quo, the 40% and the Middle what more powers but do not want

:31:11. > :31:14.full independence. The real question is, can each side provide

:31:14. > :31:19.something in the middle that is acceptable and both sides are

:31:19. > :31:24.trying to win that middle ground. That actually plays into the devo

:31:24. > :31:28.max side, which is how do we get that into a middle ground.

:31:28. > :31:35.Even if it does play into the devo max side, there's no word for it to

:31:35. > :31:40.go, so Audi challenge this? That is the point. Each party will

:31:40. > :31:43.have its own position going into the 2015 election, general election

:31:43. > :31:46.on the future of devolution. But the time we get to the referendum,

:31:46. > :31:50.we're going to have lots of different positioning from

:31:50. > :31:54.different political parties. There is no script for taking devolution

:31:54. > :31:58.for words in the kind of way which we have been talking of the last

:31:58. > :32:03.nine months. The word you expect the boat to go?

:32:03. > :32:07.I think it is an open question. Unfortunately, it has become a

:32:07. > :32:11.binary question. Everything is to play for for the politicians. But

:32:11. > :32:15.the idea of getting a substantial parts that the majority of people

:32:15. > :32:19.and Scotstoun seem to want has receded.

:32:19. > :32:27.I disagree with that. I think you can get there. I did the three

:32:27. > :32:31.Unionist parties are already doing commissions. The report was

:32:31. > :32:35.highlighted in the Sunday Times today. Labour have set up their own

:32:35. > :32:39.devolution commission. That is also look at greater powers. And the

:32:39. > :32:44.Prime Minister has talked about moving greater powers. So in terms

:32:44. > :32:48.of getting to devo max, we can see the potential for all three

:32:48. > :32:52.Unionist parties actually setting up something that is pretty close.

:32:52. > :32:55.If any group is to have a mandate in this, how important is it that

:32:55. > :32:59.it is absolutely explicit what they will argue for before the

:32:59. > :33:03.referendum? We are setting out at paper this

:33:03. > :33:08.week about how you reach that process. That will set out how it's

:33:08. > :33:15.going to work. The three parties must come together and set out a

:33:15. > :33:22.proposal that they can all signed up to. Calman has not been

:33:22. > :33:27.delivered. --, has been delivered. There is a mechanism if parties

:33:27. > :33:30.choose to do so. Carmen was quite a marginal advance

:33:30. > :33:33.in devolution. What the three parties have uncommon in terms of

:33:33. > :33:37.the common understanding in terms of where we might go from here is

:33:37. > :33:40.actually very small indeed. Any consensus opposition from the

:33:40. > :33:44.Better Together camp will be another marginal improvement. It

:33:44. > :33:49.will not address real issues of tax, the economy and welfare, which

:33:49. > :33:53.affect most of his people. If Ed Miliband stays ahead in the

:33:53. > :33:57.polls for Westminster, what effect you think that could have?

:33:57. > :34:00.I think it puts the onus on Labour to lead the Better Together

:34:00. > :34:03.campaign. If there's the prospect of a Labour

:34:03. > :34:08.Government in Westminster, does that change the dynamic in terms of

:34:08. > :34:12.our people will vote? Potentially. This is not just about

:34:12. > :34:18.fiscal powers. This is also about what is there and better under

:34:18. > :34:22.welfare powers. And that ground is probably better portrayed by the

:34:22. > :34:26.potential of the Labour Government in the UK. But there will not be a

:34:26. > :34:30.Labour Government when this is actually determined, because in two

:34:30. > :34:34.years time, a referendum will be under process.

:34:34. > :34:37.Welfare is the pivotal issue here. Although the referendum will be

:34:38. > :34:41.played out in the backdrop of the Ryder Cup, the Commonwealth Games,

:34:41. > :34:45.food distribution is the fastest- growing bit of the voluntary sector

:34:45. > :34:48.actually feeding people who cannot afford to pay their supermarket

:34:48. > :34:51.bills. That is going to be a critical factor in the run-up to

:34:51. > :34:53.the referendum itself. Thank you.

:34:53. > :34:56.When the Scottish Government launched their referendum

:34:56. > :34:59.consultation in January, the eyes of the world were on Edinburgh. And

:34:59. > :35:01.no one is watching more closely now than the people of Catalonia. Our

:35:01. > :35:11.political correspondent Niall O'Gallacher has been to Barcelona

:35:11. > :35:19.

:35:19. > :35:24.This building has become an icon, a symbol known across the world as a

:35:24. > :35:26.modern democracy. It is apres-ski outside the

:35:27. > :35:31.Scottish Parliament building in Holyrood, you could almost be here

:35:31. > :35:33.in Barcelona, but the people of Catalonia's are also deciding

:35:33. > :35:38.whether independence is the best option for the future.

:35:38. > :35:40.As they make that decision, all eyes are on Scotland. One

:35:41. > :35:44.Barcelona-based newspaper has followed every step of the Scottish

:35:44. > :35:47.debate and will watch tomorrow's meeting between David Cameron and

:35:47. > :35:52.Alex Salmond with particular interest.

:35:52. > :35:58.We think that the Scotland example, the agreement to the referendum,

:35:58. > :36:00.for London and Edinburgh, that helps us. It is possible. We think,

:36:00. > :36:04.at this point, that this is difficult.

:36:04. > :36:08.That is because the post-Franco constitution calls upon the Armed

:36:08. > :36:11.Forces to defend the unity of Spain. Despite that, a visitor to

:36:11. > :36:18.Barcelona from another region with strong nationalist ambitions said

:36:18. > :36:22.this was a question for Catalans alone. The main work is ours to do.

:36:22. > :36:26.The future is ours to decide. That is that.

:36:26. > :36:29.The Catalan Government agrees. They have said they will all the

:36:29. > :36:34.referendum after elections in November, but one Scottish observer

:36:34. > :36:36.said this could fall on deaf ears. The Spanish Government has a point

:36:36. > :36:40.of principle has made clear that it will not entertain discussion on a

:36:40. > :36:44.referendum. It considers a referendum to be unconstitutional

:36:44. > :36:47.and it does not propose to permit one to happen. This is very

:36:47. > :36:51.different from the United Kingdom case with the principle of the

:36:51. > :36:55.Scottish Parliament legislated to have a referendum has the next --

:36:55. > :36:59.has been accepted by the UK Government. Transpac referendums in

:36:59. > :37:03.individual parts of Spain are not permitted.

:37:03. > :37:06.You cannot, as convergence in union urging, and yell at the people

:37:06. > :37:10.telling them they can hold a referendum because it is making

:37:10. > :37:13.them a break the law. He must comply with the Basic Law, the

:37:13. > :37:17.Supreme law of all Catalans and Spaniards, which is the Spanish

:37:17. > :37:23.constitution. In the case of Scotland and England, it is

:37:23. > :37:30.different from that Spain and that the Lord has not committed.

:37:30. > :37:37.The Catalan President wants to negotiate, after it is six -- --

:37:37. > :37:43.after, as expected, he went there majority in November. Catalonia's

:37:43. > :37:45.look on at David Cameron's willingness to except a referendum.

:37:45. > :37:50.Scotland has not so different to Catalonia in terms of the economy

:37:50. > :37:55.and population. The editing and is very different from Spain. -- the

:37:55. > :37:58.United Kingdom is very different from Spain. What David Cameron says

:37:58. > :38:02.in Westminster, what the British Government is prepared to do, is

:38:02. > :38:06.radically different from what is said in Madrid and what the Spanish

:38:06. > :38:09.Government is prepared to do in Madrid.

:38:09. > :38:13.From attack time perspective, the Scottish debate seems very

:38:13. > :38:18.gentlemanly, very, derisive, British. With none of the post-

:38:18. > :38:22.Civil War tensions. So at last we have a deal on the Scottish

:38:22. > :38:25.referendum, we have two years to wait before we find out whether it

:38:26. > :38:28.is seen most -- eagerness and nationalists in Barcelona that end

:38:28. > :38:32.up paying homage to the United Kingdom.

:38:32. > :38:37.What will be ripple effect of what is happening here be for the rest

:38:37. > :38:42.of the UK? In power Edinburgh studio, Jim Gallagher, who was

:38:42. > :38:47.heavily involved in the previous Scotland Bill and is now an adviser

:38:47. > :38:55.to Labour. Thank you for coming in. If we look at the other parts of

:38:55. > :38:57.the nick of time and, is what is happening here in Scotland driving

:38:57. > :39:03.past -- driving call for constitutional change in other

:39:03. > :39:05.parts of the UK? After look at Wales, the wells have been

:39:05. > :39:08.adjusting their devolution settlement since they got it and

:39:08. > :39:13.they have not finished yet. You will see some desire therefore

:39:13. > :39:19.perhaps a reformulation of their fiscal system, or Tommy a knock on

:39:19. > :39:23.the lines that Scotland once. Northern Ireland's marches to its

:39:23. > :39:27.own tunes. In some ways, England is the most

:39:27. > :39:33.interesting of all. Indeed, the English question is that the middle

:39:33. > :39:38.of all this. The UK has the most lopsided at a symmetrical

:39:38. > :39:44.territorial constitution of anywhere. We have devolution for

:39:44. > :39:50.15% of the population, 85% of them have I unitary Government. That is

:39:50. > :39:53.one of the constraints on designing the devolution settlement for

:39:53. > :39:59.Scotland and Will Sach Northern Ireland, how did you fit in what

:39:59. > :40:02.happened to England? England, although we see in polls and

:40:02. > :40:08.surveys, there is a strong measure off discontent with Westminster,

:40:08. > :40:12.that does not translate into regionalisation. It does not, it

:40:12. > :40:16.does not translate into a regional political entity. There is an

:40:16. > :40:19.argument that the present UK Government is pursuing, for

:40:19. > :40:26.localism and decentralisation to cities and counties. What you are

:40:26. > :40:31.not seeing is a movement for regional administration, and still

:40:31. > :40:34.less resolve political set-up. That was killed by the vote in the

:40:34. > :40:37.north-east. Let's look at what could be coming

:40:37. > :40:41.out of the Mackay commission, which looks at Westminster voting and

:40:41. > :40:44.public funding. The Mackay commission is not looking at

:40:44. > :40:48.funding, it looks at the West Lothian question. How do you deal

:40:48. > :40:52.with the fact that Scottish and Welsh -- Scottish and Welsh MPs can

:40:52. > :40:57.vote on English issues when they cannot fault on the same issues for

:40:57. > :41:03.Scotland or Wales or Northern Ireland? This is likely to come up

:41:03. > :41:07.with, as it were, a Westminster procedure will fixed for that

:41:07. > :41:13.question, which we will see in one year or so. Nobody is looking at

:41:13. > :41:16.money at the moment. They suppose that money must be

:41:16. > :41:21.what is constantly the elephant in the room in terms of any of these

:41:21. > :41:27.discussions. Off course, and the Scottish devolution issue, as you

:41:27. > :41:31.have heard earlier on, to a principle about taxation. Taxation

:41:31. > :41:34.raised straight into the question of, what degree of equity do you

:41:34. > :41:39.want across the UK? Should be offered the same levels of service

:41:39. > :41:43.game that should be all be able to enjoy the same public services for

:41:43. > :41:49.the same tax, or to the lowest, to some degree, on the resources that

:41:49. > :41:54.are are all on? That are within Scotland or within England almost

:41:54. > :41:58.in one or so on? Finally, let me ask you that a paper written by the

:41:58. > :42:01.Royal Society of Scotland, to which he contributed, just in terms of

:42:01. > :42:05.your role they delayed a commission. This paper says that even

:42:05. > :42:08.proponents of Devo Max acknowledge that it is a policy that will be

:42:08. > :42:12.hard to sell to English voters, integrating its best to a growing

:42:12. > :42:15.sense that devolution allows the Scots to have their cake and eat it.

:42:15. > :42:20.If Labour argues for more powers, you cannot think you can square

:42:20. > :42:25.that circle. The interesting question about how Scotland fits

:42:25. > :42:29.into the UK, assuming that we're not talking about independence, the

:42:29. > :42:35.question is, how many more powers Kenya have without some sort of

:42:35. > :42:39.trade-off in your position in the United Kingdom? -- how many more

:42:39. > :42:41.powers can you have? We have a parliament in Edinburgh and central

:42:41. > :42:47.taxation funding most other public services, that is the central

:42:47. > :42:52.taxation from Westminster, and we also have MPs in Westminster and we

:42:52. > :42:56.have, and we are about to have, some tax powers of her own. How far

:42:56. > :42:59.can you take that without making some adjustment to her

:42:59. > :43:06.representation in Westminster, and how far do you take it without some

:43:06. > :43:10.change to the funding system? Thank you very much.

:43:10. > :43:20.Would you like to take a stab at what subject we will discuss in the

:43:20. > :43:23.

:43:23. > :43:27.Our very own Mr Brian Taylor is in his emotional heartland of Dundee.

:43:27. > :43:31.God's own City. A very closed the actual cradle of civilisation,

:43:32. > :43:38.which is Paradise Park. Who has won these that was the

:43:38. > :43:41.agents all have one and all must have prizes. The intriguing thing

:43:41. > :43:46.is that there has been an agreement to settle and pursue the mandate

:43:46. > :43:50.the Scottish Government has. Alex Salmond has the mandate to ask the

:43:50. > :43:54.question about independence, no more, no less. David Cameron has

:43:54. > :43:59.the legal power which is resolved to Westminster on to the devolution

:43:59. > :44:05.Act of 1998. The Prime Minister is lending that power to Holyrood up

:44:05. > :44:08.to end a 2014. That sits Alex Allen's timetable fine. This is

:44:08. > :44:13.providing There is a question purely about independence and not

:44:13. > :44:17.about Devo Max. There is a trade- off. There are two things to this

:44:17. > :44:20.that unimportant. First of all that it makes the referendum will

:44:20. > :44:24.legally watertight. This is significant because it means the

:44:24. > :44:29.referendum is undoubtedly on and cannot be challenged in the court.

:44:29. > :44:33.These two leaders are now agreeing, agreeing the rules and regulations

:44:33. > :44:36.for this referendum. That means implicitly and almost explicitly

:44:36. > :44:42.that they are agreeing to accept and respect the outcome. Whatever

:44:42. > :44:46.that may be. Just casting really far ahead so we

:44:46. > :44:51.can see the much bigger picture, if there is an yes vote, can this be

:44:51. > :44:55.turned around S SNP lose the Holyrood election in 2016?

:44:55. > :44:59.suppose it could, technically, all things are possible. If there is

:44:59. > :45:02.Agius Ford, the people of Scotland are -- if the people of Scotland

:45:02. > :45:06.demonstrate that they want to be independent, it would really take

:45:06. > :45:11.refuge him out of Masha Nations and Machiavellian manoeuvring to

:45:11. > :45:15.prevent that. The significance of David Cameron's endorsement of this

:45:15. > :45:19.tomorrow and of the other members of the United Kingdom coalition of

:45:19. > :45:22.Dawson that model is that they accept that that is the case. They

:45:22. > :45:26.are prepared to put this to the test because they have agreed the

:45:26. > :45:30.rules and rent -- rules and regulations for the referendum and

:45:30. > :45:34.have agreed to go with Alex Salmond to the letter commission with the

:45:34. > :45:37.wording of the question. Both sides are seeing Cobby have at least the

:45:37. > :45:41.way this will happen and we will not do this by a dispute or by I

:45:41. > :45:46.knew little declaration. We're doing this by agreement. That means

:45:46. > :45:50.that they grief. It is important that they respect the outcome. We

:45:50. > :45:53.had the report from Catalonia and from Spain, this assertion -- the

:45:53. > :45:57.Spanish foreign minister is often quoted as saying that Spain and

:45:57. > :46:01.other European countries will take no part whatsoever in the decisions

:46:01. > :46:04.of member states leaving the UK. What we do not quote usually is the

:46:04. > :46:08.second part, saying that it is provided that those two parties

:46:08. > :46:13.have agreed. Tomorrow is that agreement.

:46:13. > :46:15.What do you think is the effect of not having a second question?

:46:15. > :46:19.difficulty with the second question is that it would be relatively

:46:19. > :46:24.nebulous but that there is no political organisation, no party

:46:24. > :46:29.and no Government, referendums are not just to be a plebiscite, they

:46:29. > :46:33.are the people offering an opinion on something been proposed back

:46:33. > :46:37.Government. No Government is backing Devo Max, not Westminster

:46:38. > :46:41.and not the Scottish Government who favour independence. Therefore, the

:46:41. > :46:46.problem with it would be that yes, you could cast around the opinion

:46:46. > :46:50.of the people, but who would be mandated, mandated to act?

:46:50. > :46:53.Referendum on independence produces a mandate for the Scottish

:46:53. > :46:57.Government to negotiate with the UK Government to produce that

:46:57. > :47:07.independence should there be yes vote. On the other hand, produces a

:47:07. > :47:15.

:47:15. > :47:17.mandate to continue with the union Politics has always more wide-

:47:17. > :47:20.ranging than the politicians would want.

:47:20. > :47:22.Thank you. You can read more analysis from

:47:22. > :47:25.Brian on his correspondent's page, bbc.co.uk/briantaylor.