:00:36. > :00:44.Good morning. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be extremely
:00:45. > :00:48.difficult if not impossible for an independent Scotland to join the
:00:49. > :00:53.European Union. So says the president of the European
:00:54. > :00:55.Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant development in the
:00:56. > :01:00.independence debate. It is our top story. He has got the power to bring
:01:01. > :01:09.travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow joins us for the
:01:10. > :01:14.interview. Now the by-election, another second place for UKIP. Just
:01:15. > :01:17.how big a threat does Nigel Farage's party pose for the Tory
:01:18. > :01:20.party? And coming up on Sunday Politics
:01:21. > :01:22.Scotland: The President of the European Commission says an
:01:23. > :01:25.independent Scotland would find it "difficult if not impossible" to
:01:26. > :01:37.gain approval from other member states for EU entry.
:01:38. > :01:43.political panel in the business. The twits will be as incessant and
:01:44. > :01:47.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development
:01:48. > :01:49.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the
:01:50. > :01:55.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel
:01:56. > :01:58.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that
:01:59. > :02:02.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union
:02:03. > :02:06.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28
:02:07. > :02:10.member states and that would be, in his words, extremely difficult, if
:02:11. > :02:14.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out
:02:15. > :02:21.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very
:02:22. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by
:02:26. > :02:32.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the
:02:33. > :02:36.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your
:02:37. > :02:39.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely
:02:40. > :02:44.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have
:02:45. > :02:53.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that
:02:54. > :02:57.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is
:02:58. > :03:00.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be
:03:01. > :03:07.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't
:03:08. > :03:10.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive
:03:11. > :03:14.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex
:03:15. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to
:03:20. > :03:22.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with
:03:23. > :03:29.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last
:03:30. > :03:40.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically
:03:41. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that
:03:48. > :03:53.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get
:03:54. > :03:57.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more
:03:58. > :04:02.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is
:04:03. > :04:06.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active
:04:07. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other
:04:12. > :04:14.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no
:04:15. > :04:20.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by
:04:21. > :04:24.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:25. > :04:30.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have
:04:31. > :04:33.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite
:04:34. > :04:38.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know
:04:39. > :04:44.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried
:04:45. > :04:51.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care
:04:52. > :04:56.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.
:04:57. > :05:00.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the
:05:01. > :05:05.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the
:05:06. > :05:08.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would
:05:09. > :05:11.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that
:05:12. > :05:16.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls
:05:17. > :05:22.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for
:05:23. > :05:27.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of
:05:28. > :05:29.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in
:05:30. > :05:33.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a
:05:34. > :05:39.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both
:05:40. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already
:05:47. > :05:49.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is
:05:50. > :05:53.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,
:05:54. > :05:58.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the
:05:59. > :06:01.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was
:06:02. > :06:06.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A
:06:07. > :06:09.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last
:06:10. > :06:13.minute. The leader of the biggest
:06:14. > :06:18.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members
:06:19. > :06:22.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the
:06:23. > :06:27.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership
:06:28. > :06:30.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when
:06:31. > :06:35.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has
:06:36. > :06:39.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to
:06:40. > :06:42.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the
:06:43. > :06:47.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100
:06:48. > :06:52.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has
:06:53. > :06:56.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.
:06:57. > :07:05.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.
:07:06. > :07:12.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the
:07:13. > :07:17.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of
:07:18. > :07:20.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it
:07:21. > :07:24.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices
:07:25. > :07:27.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone
:07:28. > :07:30.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep
:07:31. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not
:07:38. > :07:40.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking
:07:41. > :07:43.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a
:07:44. > :07:47.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less
:07:48. > :07:53.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.
:07:54. > :07:59.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV
:08:00. > :08:03.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time
:08:04. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.
:08:08. > :08:10.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit
:08:11. > :08:14.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,
:08:15. > :08:20.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they
:08:21. > :08:25.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out
:08:26. > :08:29.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket
:08:30. > :08:34.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind
:08:35. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the
:08:39. > :08:43.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They
:08:44. > :08:49.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?
:08:50. > :08:51.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got
:08:52. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a
:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in
:08:59. > :09:01.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million
:09:02. > :09:06.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per
:09:07. > :09:10.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We
:09:11. > :09:13.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more
:09:14. > :09:18.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming
:09:19. > :09:21.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people
:09:22. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of
:09:30. > :09:32.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I
:09:33. > :09:40.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I
:09:41. > :09:44.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because
:09:45. > :09:49.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what
:09:50. > :09:53.that has got to do with it. Let's get every editor of the daily
:09:54. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to
:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...
:10:03. > :10:04.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and
:10:05. > :10:09.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were
:10:10. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they
:10:14. > :10:16.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on
:10:17. > :10:20.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They
:10:21. > :10:26.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be
:10:27. > :10:31.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never
:10:32. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what
:10:36. > :10:38.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning, I
:10:39. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next
:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot
:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do
:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be
:10:59. > :11:02.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not
:11:03. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good
:11:07. > :11:10.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is, all
:11:11. > :11:14.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they
:11:15. > :11:18.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to
:11:19. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for
:11:23. > :11:24.your members and why union membership has been rising, people
:11:25. > :11:29.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost
:11:30. > :11:35.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone
:11:36. > :11:38.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are
:11:39. > :11:41.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on
:11:42. > :11:46.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at
:11:47. > :11:52.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The
:11:53. > :11:56.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary
:11:57. > :12:03.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22,000 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a
:12:04. > :12:09.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had
:12:10. > :12:16.to live through 24 strikes in 13 years to push up your members
:12:17. > :12:22.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by
:12:23. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the
:12:27. > :12:30.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the
:12:31. > :12:36.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up
:12:37. > :12:40.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are
:12:41. > :12:43.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all
:12:44. > :12:47.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars
:12:48. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members
:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if
:12:57. > :13:00.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who
:13:01. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care. Of
:13:07. > :13:10.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling
:13:11. > :13:17.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It
:13:18. > :13:21.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us
:13:22. > :13:25.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's
:13:26. > :13:32.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having
:13:33. > :13:36.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is
:13:37. > :13:39.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said
:13:40. > :13:45.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in
:13:46. > :13:49.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth
:13:50. > :13:53.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting
:13:54. > :13:57.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy
:13:58. > :14:02.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?
:14:03. > :14:07.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx
:14:08. > :14:11.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and
:14:12. > :14:15.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of
:14:16. > :14:24.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out
:14:25. > :14:28.for new technology. But for who? To put people on the dole, so they
:14:29. > :14:32.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so
:14:33. > :14:36.everybody benefits, lower fares, better service and better terms and
:14:37. > :14:39.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the
:14:40. > :14:43.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute
:14:44. > :14:48.technology for Labour. And that's what it's going to do, it is closing
:14:49. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless
:14:55. > :15:02.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this
:15:03. > :15:12.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming
:15:13. > :15:18.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it
:15:19. > :15:23.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it
:15:24. > :15:27.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be
:15:28. > :15:34.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who
:15:35. > :15:39.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality
:15:40. > :15:45.is simple, it is a nonsense. It's not going to happen because it is a
:15:46. > :15:53.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless
:15:54. > :15:59.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small
:16:00. > :16:05.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me
:16:06. > :16:21.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over
:16:22. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created
:16:27. > :16:31.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many
:16:32. > :16:36.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the
:16:37. > :16:41.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and
:16:42. > :16:46.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better
:16:47. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the
:16:53. > :16:58.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single
:16:59. > :17:06.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes
:17:07. > :17:11.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long
:17:12. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.
:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is
:17:24. > :17:29.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people
:17:30. > :17:34.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use
:17:35. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the
:17:43. > :17:50.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I
:17:51. > :17:56.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.
:17:57. > :18:03.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is,
:18:04. > :18:07.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being
:18:08. > :18:14.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that
:18:15. > :18:19.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out
:18:20. > :18:24.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the
:18:25. > :18:28.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London
:18:29. > :18:32.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices
:18:33. > :18:36.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially
:18:37. > :18:43.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the
:18:44. > :18:51.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed
:18:52. > :19:06.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal
:19:07. > :19:11.with it. It is not the only way. They should supplement the staff and
:19:12. > :19:17.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want
:19:18. > :19:25.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of
:19:26. > :19:34.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%
:19:35. > :19:38.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of
:19:39. > :19:44.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a
:19:45. > :19:49.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be
:19:50. > :19:55.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to
:19:56. > :20:01.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we
:20:02. > :20:07.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were
:20:08. > :20:13.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where
:20:14. > :20:18.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be
:20:19. > :20:23.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the
:20:24. > :20:30.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT
:20:31. > :20:35.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got
:20:36. > :20:44.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the
:20:45. > :20:53.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we
:20:54. > :20:57.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you
:20:58. > :21:07.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You
:21:08. > :21:15.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you
:21:16. > :21:21.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and
:21:22. > :21:27.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are
:21:28. > :21:33.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the
:21:34. > :21:39.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as
:21:40. > :21:46.badly run as you think, why don't you run for mayor? That is down the
:21:47. > :21:51.road, it has not come up yet. I'm not ruling anything out. I'm not
:21:52. > :21:57.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to
:21:58. > :22:04.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to
:22:05. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have
:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if
:22:22. > :22:27.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later
:22:28. > :22:33.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel
:22:34. > :22:39.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish
:22:40. > :22:45.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now
:22:46. > :22:52.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I
:22:53. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He
:23:01. > :23:06.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,
:23:07. > :23:11.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to
:23:12. > :23:15.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are
:23:16. > :23:20.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been
:23:21. > :23:26.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work
:23:27. > :23:30.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership
:23:31. > :23:36.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and
:23:37. > :23:48.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are
:23:49. > :23:51.talking about the president of the European commission and we have
:23:52. > :23:56.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,
:23:57. > :24:05.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that
:24:06. > :24:13.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they
:24:14. > :24:18.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it
:24:19. > :24:22.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state
:24:23. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish
:24:30. > :24:34.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if
:24:35. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an
:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.
:24:44. > :24:47.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no
:24:48. > :24:51.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union
:24:52. > :24:56.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the
:24:57. > :25:01.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union
:25:02. > :25:06.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation
:25:07. > :25:16.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that
:25:17. > :25:21.David Cameron wants to have in 2017. It has not been a great week for
:25:22. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has
:25:29. > :25:31.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel
:25:32. > :25:38.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it
:25:39. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the
:25:46. > :25:48.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within
:25:49. > :25:57.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is
:25:58. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect
:26:02. > :26:08.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence
:26:09. > :26:14.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves
:26:15. > :26:20.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We
:26:21. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be
:26:30. > :26:35.to establish the currency union. You would have to adopt the euro. That's
:26:36. > :26:39.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for
:26:40. > :26:42.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent
:26:43. > :26:48.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or
:26:49. > :26:52.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our
:26:53. > :26:55.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests
:26:56. > :27:03.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you sterling, which is in the interests
:27:04. > :27:06.for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news
:27:07. > :27:09.was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a
:27:10. > :27:12.by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result
:27:13. > :27:16.so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time
:27:17. > :27:18.this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away
:27:19. > :27:23.at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed
:27:24. > :27:33.up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the
:27:34. > :27:44.theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.
:27:45. > :27:50.What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's
:27:51. > :27:53.by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps
:27:54. > :27:59.answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,
:28:00. > :28:09.but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that
:28:10. > :28:12.Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their
:28:13. > :28:15.share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance
:28:16. > :28:17.isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections
:28:18. > :28:26.this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has
:28:27. > :28:34.ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what
:28:35. > :28:39.happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are
:28:40. > :28:43.happened? No, I didn't, I said I you feeling? It is a Labour
:28:44. > :28:50.stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were
:28:51. > :28:53.running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in
:28:54. > :28:57.Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets
:28:58. > :29:00.that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about
:29:01. > :29:04.the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help
:29:05. > :29:09.them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.
:29:10. > :29:14.Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they
:29:15. > :29:18.could be on the right track. He's analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP
:29:19. > :29:29.voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about
:29:30. > :29:36.the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy
:29:37. > :29:41.faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many
:29:42. > :29:46.UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do
:29:47. > :29:51.pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters
:29:52. > :29:56.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban
:29:57. > :30:00.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And
:30:01. > :30:04.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if
:30:05. > :30:17.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just
:30:18. > :30:20.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP
:30:21. > :30:24.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they
:30:25. > :30:27.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the
:30:28. > :30:32.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their
:30:33. > :30:39.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will
:30:40. > :30:42.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the
:30:43. > :30:47.Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may
:30:48. > :30:55.have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over
:30:56. > :31:03.at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had
:31:04. > :31:07.major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a
:31:08. > :31:11.kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious
:31:12. > :31:16.as that. The answer is, Carreon, chaps, you're all doing a very good
:31:17. > :31:20.job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which
:31:21. > :31:26.will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if
:31:27. > :31:31.it is just parked. -- bandwagon. With me now is the Conservative MEP
:31:32. > :31:35.Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He
:31:36. > :31:37.will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You
:31:38. > :31:44.came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky
:31:45. > :31:50.Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very
:31:51. > :31:53.unusual for any insurgent party, like the liberals used to be, to
:31:54. > :31:57.actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back
:31:58. > :32:25.to I think we did well. Though it
:32:26. > :32:28.wasn't a breakthrough for UKIP, it pushed you into third place and
:32:29. > :32:33.should be increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North. Tory minded
:32:34. > :32:42.voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you.
:32:43. > :32:48.By-elections are by-elections. You need to look at them all and learn
:32:49. > :32:52.the lessons from them. We need to look forward to the European
:32:53. > :32:58.elections in 2014. That is in May this year. When we have a chance to
:32:59. > :33:01.really grab this change in Europe, grab a change that Jose Manuel
:33:02. > :33:08.Barroso has been talking about. Why, you don't worry that, particularly
:33:09. > :33:13.in the North, if people want to vote against Labour, your supporters are
:33:14. > :33:16.drifting to UKIP? People voted UKIP in a European
:33:17. > :33:23.election. They bought that because they won't change. The problem is,
:33:24. > :33:28.Patrick's party have had MEPs since 1989 and they cannot deliver that
:33:29. > :33:34.change. The cat because they don't have seats in Westminster. The only
:33:35. > :33:36.way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is to have this
:33:37. > :33:44.referendum and have the renegotiation. What do you say to
:33:45. > :33:50.that? Get real. The Conservative Party have not won a parliamentary
:33:51. > :33:53.majority in 22 years. John Major failed in 1997. The only way you
:33:54. > :33:57.will get the referendum, if that what motivates you, and I assume
:33:58. > :34:03.with UKIP that is what motivates you, is if there is a majority
:34:04. > :34:08.Conservative Government in the next election. And you could well stop
:34:09. > :34:13.that from happening. I don't accept that. Just as we forced David
:34:14. > :34:19.Cameron into a referendum pledge he had ruled out making before, and I
:34:20. > :34:22.was there in PMQs when his MPs asked him and he said a referendum would
:34:23. > :34:26.not be in the national interest because he did not want to leave,
:34:27. > :34:29.our electoral success force that pledge and by winning the European
:34:30. > :34:33.elections this may we can force Ed Miliband, against his will, to match
:34:34. > :34:40.that pledge and then whatever formulation there is, we will get a
:34:41. > :34:42.referendum. The Labour MPs in Westminster have just had the
:34:43. > :34:46.chance, and the Labour peers have had the chance to say, we want the
:34:47. > :34:50.referendum. The refused to do it. The only way you will get a
:34:51. > :34:54.renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and in a
:34:55. > :34:59.referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please, UKIP, will you
:35:00. > :35:04.stop pretending that you can deliver because you do not deliver. We
:35:05. > :35:09.already have delivered. We forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a
:35:10. > :35:13.referendum he did not want to give. We will know by next election if you
:35:14. > :35:17.are right about Ed Miliband. He will have to tell us. If Mr Miliband
:35:18. > :35:22.holds out against giving you a referendum, what will you do? There
:35:23. > :35:28.are loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. I have asked the David
:35:29. > :35:35.Cameron and he firmly intends to lead the campaign to stay in. We
:35:36. > :35:39.want to be out of the European Union. The Tories will say, vote
:35:40. > :35:45.UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What do you say to that? We have probably maxed
:35:46. > :35:49.out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has been
:35:50. > :35:56.incredibly helpful and sending them in our direction. What we are
:35:57. > :35:58.concentrating on is those blue-collar, disenchanted former
:35:59. > :36:03.Labour voters and more and more of them are coming towards us. On our
:36:04. > :36:07.messages on things like immigration and law and order. We want to
:36:08. > :36:12.renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need people who will turn
:36:13. > :36:16.up to renegotiate with was a Manuel Barroso. So that is a Prime Minister
:36:17. > :36:19.who is not Ed Miliband, but David Cameron.
:36:20. > :36:24.who is not Ed Miliband, but David UKIP MEPs do not turn up in
:36:25. > :36:30.Brussels. I have heard that said before. If Francois Hollande is as
:36:31. > :36:33.good as his word and says there's been no substantial renegotiation
:36:34. > :36:40.and no treaty change this side of 2017, when he is up for real action,
:36:41. > :36:49.what will you do? He is a French socialist Prime Minister. He is the
:36:50. > :36:52.one you have to negotiate with. You need to bring something with
:36:53. > :36:57.substance back from these negotiations in Europe. People will
:36:58. > :37:02.vote to leave. This is on a knife edge. The Prime Minister has been
:37:03. > :37:08.very clear. Will you vote to leave? Unless we get what we want on a
:37:09. > :37:15.renegotiation, we will leave us. Let's see what the deal on the table
:37:16. > :37:19.is on 2017. If the status quo is what we have today, I would want to
:37:20. > :37:25.leave. But I would want to renegotiate. Thank you. For those in
:37:26. > :37:34.the East of England, you will be seeing even more of Patrick. You are
:37:35. > :37:38.watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome to Sunday
:37:39. > :37:40.Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme: The President of the
:37:41. > :37:44.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barosso, pours cold water on easy
:37:45. > :37:49.entry to the EU entry for an independent Scotland. It is a new
:37:50. > :37:55.country and so I believe it is going to be extremely difficult, if not
:37:56. > :37:58.impossible, a new member state coming out of one of our countries,
:37:59. > :38:02.getting the agreement. After the Chancellor rules out a
:38:03. > :38:08.currency union post independence. Can the Scottish Government reassure
:38:09. > :38:11.voters over our money? And is Cosla in need of some DIY?
:38:12. > :38:18.Cracks appear over funding for our local authorities.
:38:19. > :38:22.Good morning. It has been a week to remember in the independence
:38:23. > :38:25.campaign. The president of the European Commission has said it
:38:26. > :38:27.would be very difficult if not impossible for an independent
:38:28. > :38:32.Scotland to become a member of the European Union. That marks are
:38:33. > :38:35.causing a storm as the row over the future of the pound in an
:38:36. > :38:38.independent Scotland rumbles on. I will address both issues in an
:38:39. > :38:42.interview with the Finance Secretary in a moment, then we will speak to
:38:43. > :38:45.the Better Together leader Alistair Darling. First, Andrew Kerr reports
:38:46. > :38:50.on Whitehall's intervention in the debate on currency union.
:38:51. > :38:55.It is a new country. I believe it is going to be extremely difficult if
:38:56. > :39:02.not impossible, a new member state coming out of one of our countries,
:39:03. > :39:05.getting the agreement of the rest, but it is now for the British people
:39:06. > :39:12.and the Scottish people in their referendum to decide about their
:39:13. > :39:16.future. That was Jose Manuel Barroso speaking earlier this morning when
:39:17. > :39:18.he was talking about the prospects of an independent Scotland's
:39:19. > :39:22.membership of the year. It is an issue we will debate with John
:39:23. > :39:27.Swinney and also we will be talking to the leader of the Better Together
:39:28. > :39:30.campaign, Alistair Darling. They will both join me in a moment and we
:39:31. > :39:35.will have a chat. In a meantime, let's go back to that report from
:39:36. > :39:45.Andrew Kerr on Westminster's intervention in the currency debate.
:39:46. > :39:48.The West Minister is established and enters the fray. Sir Nicholas
:39:49. > :39:52.MacPherson, the permanent Secretary to the Treasury, has had his advice
:39:53. > :40:00.against a currency union published. He is a powerful Whitehall mandarin.
:40:01. > :40:04.Just like Sir Humphrey. I am not happy with this report. We will
:40:05. > :40:09.redraft it for you. The Minister in this case the Chancellor was
:40:10. > :40:15.certainly happy with the memo. It knocked down any hope of a currency
:40:16. > :40:18.union. On the basis of the official advice that I have received from
:40:19. > :40:24.double servants in the Treasury, and our advice is, they would not
:40:25. > :40:28.recommend a currency union to the Government of the continuing UK. --
:40:29. > :40:37.the official advice I have received from the civil servants. They have,
:40:38. > :40:42.as we know, been very reluctant to have the pound involved in the
:40:43. > :40:45.currency union and many of those people feel vindicated by the
:40:46. > :40:49.problem is that the euro has had in recent years and they are pleased
:40:50. > :40:58.that the UK never joined it. So I think that there is clearly a lot of
:40:59. > :41:00.genuine scepticism about the wisdom of formal currency unions between
:41:01. > :41:06.sovereign states and that is reflected in that letter. In the TV
:41:07. > :41:09.studios, the First Minister was then forced to present a calm and
:41:10. > :41:14.reasoned approach to the metaphorical rug being pulled from
:41:15. > :41:19.under his feet. The Yes campaign has to explain our case in reasonable
:41:20. > :41:29.fashion and see whether logic is in the low back on our side. -- whether
:41:30. > :41:33.logic is on our side. It is also in the interest of England as well. A
:41:34. > :41:38.strong hand that has been shown by the UK Government, but what happened
:41:39. > :41:41.to the pledge not to renegotiate? Ben Thomson from reform Scotland is
:41:42. > :41:45.arguing for more powers for Scotland. He watched the
:41:46. > :41:51.Chancellor's speech and is anxious for more detail. If they are
:41:52. > :41:54.starting to be this clear, but they will be more clear about some of the
:41:55. > :42:03.other things. About what a noble will mean. -- what a No vote will
:42:04. > :42:06.mean. At this week has shown us is the hard negotiations that could
:42:07. > :42:09.take place between the two sides. Alex Salmond has warned that
:42:10. > :42:15.Scotland would not take on its share of the estimated ?1.6 trillion of UK
:42:16. > :42:18.national debt come a possible Independence Day. Unless he can get
:42:19. > :42:24.a slice of shared assets including the pound. But Westminster could
:42:25. > :42:29.retaliate by frustrating Scotland's attempt to enter international
:42:30. > :42:31.institutions. In terms of using international organisations to get
:42:32. > :42:38.Scotland in line, it is much more likely to be EU. EU membership
:42:39. > :42:44.because it will be so political when it comes to negotiating and Scotland
:42:45. > :42:47.will have a relatively weak hand in negotiations for EU membership.
:42:48. > :42:51.Because so many EU countries are against Scottish independence. That
:42:52. > :42:56.would be the institutional leveraged that would most likely be used to
:42:57. > :43:01.sort of make Scotland accept a certain term that it didn't. I
:43:02. > :43:05.wouldn't think NATO membership would be useful. That is for the
:43:06. > :43:09.long-term. In the event of a Yes vote. In the short-term, it will be
:43:10. > :43:14.interesting see how the polls react, whether Scots feel the pound
:43:15. > :43:20.in their pocket is under threat or if they feel bullied by Westminster
:43:21. > :43:23.politicians. I am joined now from Dundee by the
:43:24. > :43:30.Finance Secretary. Good afternoon to you. Let's start with the comments
:43:31. > :43:33.from Jose Manuel Barroso this morning on the BBC. He said it will
:43:34. > :43:36.be very difficult if not impossible to get agreement from all other EU
:43:37. > :43:43.members for Scottish membership. That is definitive. His remarks are
:43:44. > :43:47.pretty preposterous because you didn't quote his full interview. He
:43:48. > :43:52.suggested that Scotland was in the same position as Kosovo. Kosovo is
:43:53. > :43:57.not a member of the European Union. Scotland has been part of the
:43:58. > :44:00.European Union for 40 years. I think that very significant difference of
:44:01. > :44:03.the fact that we have been participants in the European Union,
:44:04. > :44:07.are legal framework is compatible with the European Union, we have
:44:08. > :44:10.been willing partners and participants in the European Union,
:44:11. > :44:15.ensures we are in a fundamentally different position from the one
:44:16. > :44:19.articulated by him. He didn't compare Scotland to Kosovo. He used
:44:20. > :44:22.that and it is an example where Spain said it would not want to go
:44:23. > :44:26.down the road of allowing EU to recognise Kosovo's independence.
:44:27. > :44:33.That is the position he believes Spain may well add up if Ford a vote
:44:34. > :44:39.on Scottish membership. -- may well adopt if offered a vote. What has
:44:40. > :44:42.been said is that if the arrangements going into the unity
:44:43. > :44:45.kingdom for the referendum essentially agreed arrangements
:44:46. > :44:50.between Scotland and the rest of the UK, as epitomised by the Edinburgh
:44:51. > :44:54.Agreement, signed in October 2012 between the First Minister and the
:44:55. > :44:58.Prime Minister. The Spanish Foreign Minister is saying, if you have got
:44:59. > :45:02.an agreed process in the UK by which Scotland can become independent,
:45:03. > :45:06.Spain has got no opinion on the issue of the outcome of the
:45:07. > :45:14.referendum. But it will have an opinion on whether it agrees to let
:45:15. > :45:16.Scotland into the EU. The Spanish Foreign Minister has accepted that
:45:17. > :45:21.the United Kingdom is taking an approach which leads to an agreed
:45:22. > :45:27.independent settlement between Scotland and the rest of the mighty
:45:28. > :45:31.kingdom. He can veto EU membership for Scotland. As a consequence, it
:45:32. > :45:37.enables us to establish the platform by which Scotland becomes a member
:45:38. > :45:40.of the European Union. Not a single state in the European Union has made
:45:41. > :45:43.any remark about the fact that it would be in any way likely to beat
:45:44. > :45:49.all Scottish membership of the bee you. I can see why they would want
:45:50. > :45:54.to do that. -- membership of the EU. The history of the EU has been about
:45:55. > :45:57.expansion, growth, involving new members, bringing more countries
:45:58. > :46:03.into the fold of the European Union. Scotland has been a willing and
:46:04. > :46:09.active participant of the EU for 40 years. Let's move on to the currency
:46:10. > :46:11.union. Have you looked again at the different options available to an
:46:12. > :46:16.independent Scotland with regards to currency? The fiscal commission
:46:17. > :46:18.produced a report for us which had a range of different options that were
:46:19. > :46:24.available to an independent Scotland. What we did as the
:46:25. > :46:27.Government, and it is the right thing to do, was to listen to
:46:28. > :46:30.international expert opening in and to conclude what was the right thing
:46:31. > :46:34.in the interests of the people of Scotland. And the preferred option
:46:35. > :46:37.of the fiscal commission was to establish a currency zone where
:46:38. > :46:41.Scotland and the rest of the UK would continue to use the same
:46:42. > :46:46.currency. I understand that is your preferred option. But are the other
:46:47. > :46:51.option Jew have looked at workable? Of course. The fiscal commission
:46:52. > :47:02.made that clear. -- the other options you have looked at workable?
:47:03. > :47:08.In relation to arrangements around about fiscal sustainability, it is
:47:09. > :47:12.possible. So there is no reason not to join the euro other than a
:47:13. > :47:15.political decision? It would involve a Scottish Government taking a
:47:16. > :47:19.number of decisions not least of which would be to voluntarily join
:47:20. > :47:22.the exchange rate mechanism of the European Union and we have no
:47:23. > :47:26.intention of going down that route. We have decided that that is not one
:47:27. > :47:29.we would pursue. My point about the arrangements that the fiscal
:47:30. > :47:33.commission set out was that they put in place an integrated package of
:47:34. > :47:36.measures and the Chancellor would have been better served if he had
:47:37. > :47:39.actually looked at the integrated package of measures that the fiscal
:47:40. > :47:43.commission set out, because it was very similar to the ground covered
:47:44. > :47:46.by the Bank of England governor when he came to Scotland a couple of
:47:47. > :47:50.weeks ago and set out the arrangement by which it would be
:47:51. > :47:54.practical and possible to arrange a currency union between Scotland and
:47:55. > :47:58.the rest of the UK. And the type of considerations that would have to be
:47:59. > :48:01.in place to make that work. The chat a lot has taken the same position
:48:02. > :48:04.you have taken on the euro. You have said the euro is workable but as a
:48:05. > :48:09.Government you do not want to go down that road. Isn't the Chancellor
:48:10. > :48:12.making the exact same point to you? A currency union could be workable,
:48:13. > :48:16.but politically the Chancellor is saying now. The governor of the Bank
:48:17. > :48:18.of England said it was perfectly workable to be completely
:48:19. > :48:23.arrangements for a currency union, but what he said and which I accept
:48:24. > :48:26.is that there are a number of additional factors you have to put
:48:27. > :48:31.in place to ensure that can work and many of these factors, which the
:48:32. > :48:34.substance of the report brought forward by the fiscal commission,
:48:35. > :48:35.which covered the whole range of different issues around the
:48:36. > :48:41.integration of the financial services market, and the issues
:48:42. > :48:45.around fiscal sustainability. Is your position that the Chancellor is
:48:46. > :48:49.bluffing? That is my position. What the Chancellor did not do on
:48:50. > :48:53.Wednesday and I think he did not do this in relation to a question asked
:48:54. > :48:56.by one of your colleagues, was set out the negative implications for
:48:57. > :49:00.the rest of the 80 kingdom of his refusal to go down the route of the
:49:01. > :49:04.currency union. -- the rest of the United Kingdom. He is saying I will
:49:05. > :49:08.lumber you with ?500 million worth of additional transaction costs if I
:49:09. > :49:13.for Scotland not to use the pound sterling. What that attacks is the
:49:14. > :49:16.canonical well-being of the rest of the United Kingdom and it makes
:49:17. > :49:24.absolutely no sense. -- is the economic well-being. Scotland's oil
:49:25. > :49:27.and gas resources, our whiskey resources, would not be part of the
:49:28. > :49:31.balance of payments of the sterling zone. So the Chancellor has got to
:49:32. > :49:33.think much more widely about the implications of this issue for the
:49:34. > :49:38.rest are beginning to kingdom and come to a sensible position. His
:49:39. > :49:41.contribution on Thursday could and now we have been described as
:49:42. > :49:45.sensible or measured. Isn't the problem for you that it is not just
:49:46. > :49:48.the Unionist whose your position is wrong, it is also several members of
:49:49. > :49:54.the Yes Scotland campaign, such as Colin Fox. Patrick Harvie of the
:49:55. > :49:57.Green Party. They all believe in independent Scotland should have its
:49:58. > :50:02.own independent currency. Why are they wrong? That is their position.
:50:03. > :50:06.They are entitled to argue for their position. What I must do is explain
:50:07. > :50:11.the position of the two Scottish Government -- of the Scottish
:50:12. > :50:16.Government that has been formed by taking the opinions of international
:50:17. > :50:20.economist who have made a six and shall -- who have made a substantial
:50:21. > :50:31.contribution to the debate in Scotland. For the Chancellor to say
:50:32. > :50:38.on one hand he would not negotiate and then to come to Scotland with
:50:39. > :50:43.the diktats has caused the problem in this country that Scotland will
:50:44. > :50:55.not be pushed around by a UK Chancellor. Other people are saying
:50:56. > :51:03.a different option should be looked at, isn't that a form of bullying in
:51:04. > :51:08.itself? It is not. We have to put forward a comprehensive and
:51:09. > :51:13.considered proposal about how Scotland can become an independent
:51:14. > :51:18.country. We have worked hard for years to put that together, it is
:51:19. > :51:24.what is published, it represents the solid work we have put in place to
:51:25. > :51:28.make sure Scotland has a workable plan to become an independent
:51:29. > :51:32.country. I'd micro-thank you very much. I am joined by Alistair
:51:33. > :51:41.Darling of the Better Together campaign. Jose Manuel Barroso is
:51:42. > :51:47.saying it will be difficult for an independent Scotland to regain
:51:48. > :51:56.independence because of countries like Spain. The consensus of
:51:57. > :52:04.international opinion is that Scotland would have to reapply to
:52:05. > :52:08.enter Europe. Councils in the European Union are anything but
:52:09. > :52:12.straightforward. In any discussion you have you are always up against
:52:13. > :52:17.the fact you have countries arguing their own corner, sometimes things
:52:18. > :52:23.which have nothing to do with the subject in hand. The objectives of
:52:24. > :52:26.countries like Spain for example which are very weary about
:52:27. > :52:41.recognising any new countries, it would be anything but plain sailing.
:52:42. > :52:47.-- wheelie. -- wary. Of course it is an advantage of the European Union
:52:48. > :52:53.to have members within it but what Jose Manuel Barroso was saying today
:52:54. > :52:58.is that the discussions that will take place will be anything but
:52:59. > :53:04.plain sailing. I can see them dragging on for years. It takes an
:53:05. > :53:10.inordinately long time to agree everything. Your view would not have
:53:11. > :53:13.that. This would be the first time a country was breaking away from an
:53:14. > :53:19.existing member state and then applying to get back in again. Alex
:53:20. > :53:28.Salmond said he had an opinion that we would get in with no questions
:53:29. > :53:33.asked but you are now being asked to trust this same person who said he
:53:34. > :53:39.had a legal opinion when he did not. You are being asked to believe him
:53:40. > :53:44.over a large number of people in the European Union who say it is
:53:45. > :53:49.anything but plain sailing and you have to get 28 member states to
:53:50. > :53:55.agree to the proposition which many of them would find difficult. Taking
:53:56. > :54:01.the politics out of it, it is the currency union the logical position
:54:02. > :54:05.foreign independent Scotland? Now, I do not think it would stack up for
:54:06. > :54:11.Scotland or the rest of the United Kingdom. You need three ingredients,
:54:12. > :54:16.the banking union whereby in effect the rest of the UK which would be
:54:17. > :54:20.ten times larger than Scotland would have to underwrite Scotland's
:54:21. > :54:26.banking system. Secondly, you need the system for large sums of money
:54:27. > :54:32.moving it from those areas doing well to those that are perhaps
:54:33. > :54:37.struggling. They may be difficult but they are doable? You need a
:54:38. > :54:46.banking union, a facility to transfer money and both sides to
:54:47. > :54:52.agree the others tax and spending. What you see here is something that,
:54:53. > :54:55.if you have a currency union it takes two countries to agree to
:54:56. > :55:04.something, there is no law that says they must do it. I foresee
:55:05. > :55:09.difficulties. At the moment we have a single currency, the pound, it
:55:10. > :55:14.works because we have a political union, and economic union, we can
:55:15. > :55:20.transfer money around from richer too put pads and so on. We are being
:55:21. > :55:26.asked to give up that pound what we now need to do is find a replacement
:55:27. > :55:32.for the pound, something that Alex Salmond cannot or will not tell us.
:55:33. > :55:37.Do you think there can be any negotiation between the Scottish
:55:38. > :55:43.Government and Mark Carney going forward? It is a political decision
:55:44. > :55:50.to be taken by the rest of the UK and Scotland in the event we vote
:55:51. > :55:55.for a break in September. The bank of England can only exist because
:55:56. > :56:01.the government stands behind it. I know that full well from my
:56:02. > :56:05.experience. The bank of England can only fix interest rates. In terms of
:56:06. > :56:10.the money it spends, that comes at the moment from UK Government. It is
:56:11. > :56:16.a political decision at the end of the day. The plans for a currency
:56:17. > :56:22.union in economic terms simply do not stand up. I'd macro there is an
:56:23. > :56:31.economic place for the rest of the UK from what the Chancellor has
:56:32. > :56:35.said. We sell more goods and services to the European Union than
:56:36. > :56:41.anyone else in the world but we are not joining the euro. We sell a lot
:56:42. > :56:47.of goods and services to America but we are not joining the dollar. Scots
:56:48. > :56:52.stand to lose far more from independence than firms south of the
:56:53. > :56:57.border. At the moment they can sell any rare any market of 63 million
:56:58. > :57:04.people because of the economic and political union. The Nationalists
:57:05. > :57:08.want to break that up and are now saying let's invent something to
:57:09. > :57:13.patch up the difficulties. Quite clearly a currency union is off of
:57:14. > :57:19.the table, we need to know what a replacement for the pound would be.
:57:20. > :57:24.It is not good enough for us to trust the Nationalists to simply say
:57:25. > :57:33.trust us, we are right and the rest of the world is wrong. If this is
:57:34. > :57:39.your negotiating position... I am not negotiating, I am simply
:57:40. > :57:45.pointing out what is what. Should we get a common position from the
:57:46. > :57:50.parties and Better Together on other issues like whether or not the rest
:57:51. > :57:57.of the UK would support Scottish entry into the EU for instance? The
:57:58. > :58:02.Edinburgh agreement was an agreement to hold the referendum and abide by
:58:03. > :58:09.the outcome. Whichever way Scotland votes there is no going back on
:58:10. > :58:15.that. It is not very constructive to say we are not going to negotiate on
:58:16. > :58:19.this big issue. Surely on an issue like the currency, the single
:58:20. > :58:25.biggest issue which will affect people's mortgages, savings, how
:58:26. > :58:30.much they will be on loans, isn't it better to know now whether or not
:58:31. > :58:35.there would be a currency union? The fact of the matter is they will not
:58:36. > :58:41.be. Will be be other common positions? It must be better to note
:58:42. > :58:47.the common positions. Can we expect a common position on the situation
:58:48. > :58:53.as regards Scotland's EU membership, issued energy for
:58:54. > :58:58.existence? With Europe, whatever position the UK or parts of the UK
:58:59. > :59:04.were to take, the matter is not in our hands, it is in the hands of 27
:59:05. > :59:07.other member states who have their own internal politics and jockeying
:59:08. > :59:14.for position on a whole range of interests. It does not have to be
:59:15. > :59:20.about the merits of Scotland, it can be about the price of all of all of
:59:21. > :59:24.oil, agriculture policy and so on. Both sides are agreed that whatever
:59:25. > :59:31.the result in September, there is no going back on it, no second chances,
:59:32. > :59:36.we abide by it. To a large extent Scotland will be throwing itself on
:59:37. > :59:42.the mercy of the decisions taken by 27 other member states who, frankly,
:59:43. > :59:47.have their own battles to fight. There are so many uncertainties
:59:48. > :59:51.here. We have a massive amount of risk and uncertainty which will cost
:59:52. > :59:59.lives and ones we do not need to take. A row over the weekends are
:00:00. > :00:04.funded is threatening to split local government down the middle. Several
:00:05. > :00:08.local government say they are not getting their fair share from the
:00:09. > :00:12.Scottish Government. This has brought COSLA to boiling point. Two
:00:13. > :00:17.big councils have said they planned to leave if things do not change. As
:00:18. > :00:22.a local government correspondent has been finding out, some Labour
:00:23. > :00:27.councillors say DIY is needed to fix COSLA or they will leave. It is the
:00:28. > :00:34.time of year when councillors have been deciding what to spend cash on.
:00:35. > :00:40.Times are hard for all councils just now but most still find money to
:00:41. > :00:45.support their local priorities. In Renfrewshire last week's local
:00:46. > :00:52.budget helped the scheme for this business to grow. But there were
:00:53. > :00:58.many hard choices to balance the books. Renfrewshire gets ?300
:00:59. > :01:04.million per year from the Scottish Government but it says it should be
:01:05. > :01:08.getting far more. Renfrewshire I does not get a fair share from the
:01:09. > :01:12.Scottish Government, 18 million less than we should be on the average
:01:13. > :01:16.council when they should be getting more because we have the our fair
:01:17. > :01:25.share of problems in terms of deprivation. Councils get 80p of
:01:26. > :01:32.every pound they spend. The minister responsible for councils used to
:01:33. > :01:38.read Renfrewshire himself and has limited sympathy with his successors
:01:39. > :01:44.claims. We all argue for the indicators that best suit us which
:01:45. > :01:50.is natural. There are some rural areas with a geeky thing population
:01:51. > :02:00.and others with an increasing one. The current system has served us
:02:01. > :02:05.well over the past number of years. This disagreement is so serious it
:02:06. > :02:11.threatens to rupture COSLA, the Lizzie Power struggle, Labour leads
:02:12. > :02:19.16 of the 32 councils and gets COSLA most of its cash. -- their is a
:02:20. > :02:24.power struggle. Coors light cannot take a stand on issues that divide
:02:25. > :02:35.councils like the funding deal. -- COSLA. We are a huge contributor to
:02:36. > :02:44.growth and a huge contributor to the economy. We need to see that
:02:45. > :02:47.reflected at a Scottish level. Aberdeen and Renfrewshire are
:02:48. > :02:55.expected to be joined by more Labour councils. These other areas are also
:02:56. > :03:00.set to decide whether to quit. Dumfries and Galloway has also
:03:01. > :03:06.separately said it may leave. Some fear a big split in the body that is
:03:07. > :03:11.meant to help them all will ultimately do little good. If COSLA
:03:12. > :03:22.did not exist then councils would want to invent it. I do not think it
:03:23. > :03:27.is good enough for a few councils not to get their way and to walk
:03:28. > :03:35.away, I think that would leave them in a poor place. Critics believe it
:03:36. > :03:39.could sometimes take a stronger line on controversial issues and if those
:03:40. > :03:44.Labour critics do not get the repeal is they want, there could be a real
:03:45. > :03:50.split in the collective voice of local government. You are watching
:03:51. > :04:01.Sunday Politics in Scotland now let's join Andrew Kerr for the news.
:04:02. > :04:07.Good afternoon. The president of The European Commission has said it
:04:08. > :04:10.would be extremely difficult if not impossible for an independent
:04:11. > :04:19.Scotland to join the EU. Jose Manuel Barroso said Scotland would have to
:04:20. > :04:27.apply for membership. It would need agreement from the member states.
:04:28. > :04:31.The battle over the future of the pound in an independent Scotland is
:04:32. > :04:35.continuing this lunchtime. John Swinney said the Chancellor was
:04:36. > :04:37.bluffing in his refusal to countenance a sterling currency
:04:38. > :04:41.union postindependence ad called for talks with the Treasury to look at
:04:42. > :04:45.the issue. But the leader of the Better Together campaign said a
:04:46. > :04:48.currency union would not stack up for Scotland or the United Kingdom.
:04:49. > :04:51.Team GB's men curlers have lost their penultimate match of the round
:04:52. > :04:56.robin stage at the Winter Olympics, going down 7-6 to Norway. The defeat
:04:57. > :05:05.for skip David Murdoch and his team leaves them on five wins and three
:05:06. > :05:12.defeats. That is what happens with these games. A lot of these games
:05:13. > :05:15.are 50-50. Unfortunately we missed a couple of crucial shots today to get
:05:16. > :05:16.in front and start dominating them. Now let's take a look at the weather
:05:17. > :05:20.with Gillian. Now let's
:05:21. > :05:23.A cracking afternoon to come for most of us as a ridge of high
:05:24. > :05:28.pressure delivers blue skies and sunshine. A few showers across
:05:29. > :05:31.western Scotland and more frequent showers over the far north of the
:05:32. > :05:36.mainland and the Northern Isles, accompanied by strong winds and snow
:05:37. > :05:41.on the hills. For most places, crisp sunshine. Around 60 sea sand with
:05:42. > :05:49.light winds that will not feel bad in the sunshine. -- around six
:05:50. > :05:54.Celsius. A risk of ice. Back to Gary.
:05:55. > :05:58.Thank you. In a moment we will discuss the big events coming up in
:05:59. > :06:08.Holyrood but let's take a look back at the beach in 60 seconds. Scots
:06:09. > :06:12.are less concerned about immigration than those south of the border
:06:13. > :06:16.according to a new survey. However, 58% of respondents here still said
:06:17. > :06:22.they favoured few new arrivals. The majority favour less immigration
:06:23. > :06:28.rather than more. But they are less likely to take that view than people
:06:29. > :06:31.in England and Wales. ScottishPower announced it would be doubling the
:06:32. > :06:36.capacity of its hydroelectric power plants in the north of Scotland.
:06:37. > :06:39.Drivers are facing a bumpy ride at the moment and it emerged this week
:06:40. > :06:44.that Scottish councils are spending more than ?1600 per day compensating
:06:45. > :06:51.those whose cars have been damaged by potholes. Plans to appoint a
:06:52. > :06:54.named Guardian for a Scottish child was opposed by the Church of
:06:55. > :07:02.Scotland, saying the idea would diminish the role of parents. MSPs
:07:03. > :07:15.will turn to Hollywood this week for the final stage of the debate.
:07:16. > :07:19.-- Hollywood. -- Holyrood. Let's have a look at the papers
:07:20. > :07:24.ahead of the week. Joining me this week is polling meal. Good
:07:25. > :07:28.afternoon. They start with the remarks from Jose Manuel Barroso.
:07:29. > :07:32.Clearly a significant intervention, is it going to be a setback to the
:07:33. > :07:36.Yes campaign? To have him say that it would be difficult if not
:07:37. > :07:39.impossible for an independent Scotland to secure membership of the
:07:40. > :07:43.European Union? It is not a significant contribution. It is
:07:44. > :07:47.nonsense. His credibility just goes down and down. The one thing being
:07:48. > :07:51.you is is an expansionist organisation. They have been
:07:52. > :07:53.desperate to take all kinds of countries in and we are in a
:07:54. > :07:59.desperate to take all kinds of countries in and situation, a stable
:08:00. > :08:02.Christie, a country with major resources and controlling a huge
:08:03. > :08:08.maritime territory. A country that would be a net contributor and he
:08:09. > :08:12.said no. There is argument is four but there are countries with vested
:08:13. > :08:16.interests, secessionists concerns they might actually try and put the
:08:17. > :08:19.brakes on this. Alistair Darling made the point that membership might
:08:20. > :08:24.happen but it could take a long time. The Spanish Prime Minister
:08:25. > :08:28.will have to and third to his fishermen who are going to be so
:08:29. > :08:33.delighted if they even temporarily have Scotland out of the EU and
:08:34. > :08:37.Scotland has to say, you are not fishing in our territory. We have a
:08:38. > :08:44.very strong bargaining position. And the noise coming out right now is
:08:45. > :08:48.just politics in being you. Do we have to see this in the context of
:08:49. > :08:55.Jose Manuel Barroso being a politician, some SNP politicians are
:08:56. > :08:59.saying that he is playing politics. I think it is clear now that
:09:00. > :09:03.Scotland, and the new member states, would have to apply. So at least the
:09:04. > :09:08.voters know there would have to be an application, and on what terms?
:09:09. > :09:13.The statement today, I can understand why he is saying it could
:09:14. > :09:16.be difficult. Because we know that politics will get played in Europe,
:09:17. > :09:19.although it is inconceivable in the long run that Scotland would not be
:09:20. > :09:24.a member. The question is, how long would it take? Perhaps he have to
:09:25. > :09:28.and so the question as to why he is saying that it is impossible for
:09:29. > :09:33.Scotland to be a member. -- perhaps he has to. The voters will have to
:09:34. > :09:37.accept it will not happen immediately. There may be protracted
:09:38. > :09:42.negotiation that it is up to other EU member states to make that
:09:43. > :09:45.decision. Because voters will be aware that all member states must
:09:46. > :09:56.agree for Scotland to be part of the EU. I am perspective on it is that,
:09:57. > :10:01.in the long run, an independent Scotland would join the EU. But how
:10:02. > :10:06.long would it take? Would it be palatable to most people? Let's talk
:10:07. > :10:10.about currency. Given interviews today, it will dominate next week as
:10:11. > :10:14.well. Alex Salmond is making a speech to business leaders in
:10:15. > :10:17.Aberdeen tomorrow. A couple of newspaper today are focusing on this
:10:18. > :10:24.as well. The Sunday Herald is one of them. Is this, in your view,
:10:25. > :10:28.bullying from Westminster? Or are Westminster politicians right to
:10:29. > :10:32.say, this is our line in the sand? It is entirely predictable. The
:10:33. > :10:39.British establishment is determined to hold on to Scotland for a very
:10:40. > :10:42.good use and is -- for a very good reasons. We have many resources. We
:10:43. > :10:47.are aware of the key their nuclear bombs. They will do and say anything
:10:48. > :10:53.to try to get a No vote. So you do not believe them when they say it is
:10:54. > :10:57.in the best interests of the rest of the UK for the UK to stay together?
:10:58. > :11:08.Now. It would not be my first option. -- Calmac. The UK has
:11:09. > :11:14.serious debt problems. It has lots of difficulties coming down the
:11:15. > :11:18.line. -- no. It is saying it is going to sacrifice this balance of
:11:19. > :11:22.payments contribution? Is it that a lament of Scotland's contribution
:11:23. > :11:25.towards debt? We have got the Sunday Times as well today. They say they
:11:26. > :11:28.have spoken to some business leaders or at least the economic and social
:11:29. > :11:32.research Council has, and some of those business leaders are worried
:11:33. > :11:34.about lack of certainty in the event of a Yes vote. One or two have
:11:35. > :11:41.talked about leaving Scotland. We have heard the stories before. Does
:11:42. > :11:46.this class as scaremongering? I think that both sides, the yes and
:11:47. > :11:49.no campaign, are aware that the currency is the most critical issue
:11:50. > :11:57.for voters. So you will see this more. Is it a bluff or not? And the
:11:58. > :12:03.former Labour politician, are you comfortable with all of the
:12:04. > :12:06.pronouncements you saw this week? It starts with the Governor of the Bank
:12:07. > :12:10.of England's declaration that it is not impossible but the terms of the
:12:11. > :12:13.currency union are quite strong. It is clear to me that even if the SNP
:12:14. > :12:17.were to win the argument about currency, they will have to concede
:12:18. > :12:21.a great deal of sovereignty to get it. And what in the white paper are
:12:22. > :12:26.they prepared to negotiate to get it? We have politicians saying we
:12:27. > :12:30.are not prepared to take the risk based on this assessment.
:12:31. > :12:34.Therefore, I think the onus is on the Yes campaign took provides
:12:35. > :12:38.uncertainty around this. The problem for the Yes campaign in the weeks
:12:39. > :12:41.and months to come is that there is no unity in their side. Around what
:12:42. > :12:47.the alternative currency would be. So, of course, as an individual, I
:12:48. > :12:51.would want the best for Scotland whatever Scotland voted for. I think
:12:52. > :12:56.voters, hardly anyone has talked about the voter in all of this
:12:57. > :13:00.debate about currency. We need to know the implications, what is the
:13:01. > :13:04.currency and what is the alternative currency if the SNP did not win the
:13:05. > :13:10.argument and Howard that impact people's pensions? From the point of
:13:11. > :13:14.view of ordinary people, yes. -- Howard that impact people's
:13:15. > :13:17.pensions? The options would be either using the pound but not in
:13:18. > :13:23.the currency union, or having a Scottish pound which is pegged to
:13:24. > :13:28.sterling, which means interchanges the same. That is as it applies to
:13:29. > :13:35.the individual. What you will find is that, irrespective of what comes
:13:36. > :13:41.from the Government, you will find more work on deciding which is the
:13:42. > :13:48.preferred plan B, or for some people it might be the plan A, coming from
:13:49. > :13:55.people on the yes side. Not necessarily SNP ministers? I don't
:13:56. > :14:00.know. That would answer your question. When you talk about
:14:01. > :14:03.negotiation and the onus being on the SNP, is it right that the
:14:04. > :14:09.Westminster Government should say, seven months out, here is our line
:14:10. > :14:14.in the sand? Voters once uncertainty around the debate from both sides.
:14:15. > :14:22.It is going to be negotiating, isn't it? It is going to be two
:14:23. > :14:27.negotiations. I am sorry, we have to leave things there. There is a lot
:14:28. > :14:31.to talk about, but not enough time. That is all from us this week. I
:14:32. > :14:37.will be back at the same time next week. Goodbye.