:00:42. > :00:45.The dust has barely settled on George Osborne's Budget and,
:00:46. > :00:49.amazingly, for once it hasn't all gone horribly wrong by the weekend.
:00:50. > :00:51.So is this the election springboard the Tories needed. And where does it
:00:52. > :00:55.leave Labour? Turns out the big Budget surprise
:00:56. > :00:59.was a revolution in how we pay for old age. The pensions minister says
:01:00. > :01:01.he's relaxed if you want to spend it all on a Lambourghini, he'll join us
:01:02. > :01:05.later. And could the man with the maracas
:01:06. > :01:08.be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy Mondays tells us
:01:09. > :01:12.about his unlikely plan to become an MP.
:01:13. > :01:15.Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland: At the party conference in
:01:16. > :01:19.Perth, Johann Lamont reasserts Labour's roots as a movement of
:01:20. > :01:43.social justice, but was she short on policy detail for the future?
:01:44. > :01:47.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:48. > :01:53.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:54. > :01:59.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:00. > :02:03.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:04. > :02:07.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:08. > :02:10.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:11. > :02:14.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3.5
:02:15. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:17. > :02:47.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:48. > :02:50.own, driven partly by tradition, like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:51. > :02:53.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:54. > :03:05.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:06. > :03:09.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:10. > :03:12.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:13. > :03:16.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:17. > :03:19.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:20. > :03:21.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:22. > :03:27.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what
:03:28. > :03:31.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to
:03:32. > :03:33.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the
:03:34. > :03:40.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and
:03:41. > :03:42.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures
:03:43. > :03:47.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on
:03:48. > :03:54.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax
:03:55. > :03:59.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which
:04:00. > :04:04.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster
:04:05. > :04:08.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or the froth on the top. And changes to
:04:09. > :04:12.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum,
:04:13. > :04:20.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.
:04:21. > :04:24.This is a Budget for the makers, the doers and the savers and I commend
:04:25. > :04:28.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to
:04:29. > :04:32.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not
:04:33. > :04:39.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of
:04:40. > :04:42.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all
:04:43. > :04:46.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an
:04:47. > :04:49.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people
:04:50. > :04:53.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering
:04:54. > :04:56.the Budget at the best of times, though some, including Labour MPs,
:04:57. > :05:00.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.
:05:01. > :05:07.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed
:05:08. > :05:10.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:11. > :05:18.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:19. > :05:21.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:22. > :05:24.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:25. > :05:27.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:28. > :05:36.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:37. > :05:39.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:40. > :05:42.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:43. > :05:43.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:44. > :05:59.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:00. > :06:09.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:10. > :06:14.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:15. > :06:17.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:18. > :06:22.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:23. > :06:27.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:28. > :06:32.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:33. > :06:38.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:39. > :06:43.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:44. > :06:47.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:48. > :06:52.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:53. > :06:56.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:57. > :07:01.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:02. > :07:06.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:07. > :07:10.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:11. > :07:14.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:15. > :07:19.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:20. > :07:24.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:25. > :07:32.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:33. > :07:37.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:38. > :07:42.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:43. > :07:46.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:47. > :07:51.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:52. > :07:56.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:57. > :07:59.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:00. > :08:02.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:03. > :08:07.frustrated savers that are in the who are frustrated by low interest
:08:08. > :08:12.rates and tax rates on pension pots. This was an explicit gesture for
:08:13. > :08:17.them. That is what has paid off in the polls in the past few days. You
:08:18. > :08:24.spend all of your money on your wardrobe, is that right? The bingo
:08:25. > :08:28.poster was a kind of get out of jail card for Labour. It gave them
:08:29. > :08:33.something to zoom in on. Everyone beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory
:08:34. > :08:38.chairman. We read in the daily Telegraph that the fingerprints of
:08:39. > :08:44.the Chancellor were all over this poster. The Chancellor signed off it
:08:45. > :08:54.-- off on it and so did Lynton Crosby. They referred to working
:08:55. > :08:58.class people as, they are. How did it get into the Telegraph? We can
:08:59. > :09:04.only presume but grant Shapps made it clear that it was not him. We had
:09:05. > :09:07.a time when Labour politicians, we saw from the response of Ed Miliband
:09:08. > :09:12.onwards, they were not quite sure how to react to this budget. A lot
:09:13. > :09:18.of detail had to be absorbed. Suddenly, here is something we can
:09:19. > :09:28.talk about. You can see the thinking behind the poster was very sensible.
:09:29. > :09:30.We are not Tory toffs, we are interested in helping people who do
:09:31. > :09:37.not come from our backgrounds. The wording was awful and played into
:09:38. > :09:43.every cliche. It was all his fault. It shows how unsophisticated he
:09:44. > :09:52.was. There were people from Tory HQ who agreed the budget. A month down
:09:53. > :10:00.the line will the budget look as good? Probably. Once people look at
:10:01. > :10:03.it, pensions are fiendishly conjugated. Once they look and see
:10:04. > :10:07.what it will do with people having to pay for their own care because
:10:08. > :10:10.they can now take capital at their pension, that will come as a shock
:10:11. > :10:19.to a lot of people with small savings. It all be gone on their
:10:20. > :10:23.care. The polling will be neck and neck all the way. In the past,
:10:24. > :10:27.George Osborne has been accused of using his Budgets to tinker at the
:10:28. > :10:29.margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the
:10:30. > :10:32.thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a
:10:33. > :10:42.genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect
:10:43. > :10:46.most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money
:10:47. > :10:52.into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the
:10:53. > :10:56.private sector. They can take 25% of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when
:10:57. > :11:01.they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to
:11:02. > :11:04.buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly
:11:05. > :11:10.income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since
:11:11. > :11:17.interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even
:11:18. > :11:22.with a ?100,000 pension pot would only get an income of ?5,800 a year
:11:23. > :11:26.at current rates. From 2018, pensioners will not be forced to buy
:11:27. > :11:33.an annuity. They can do what they like with their money, even taking
:11:34. > :11:40.the entire pot as a lump some but paying tax on 75% of it.
:11:41. > :11:48.With an average pension pot closer to around ?30,000, pensioners would
:11:49. > :11:54.be more likely to buy a Skoda instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly
:11:55. > :11:59.retired people who take the cash are more likely to spend the money
:12:00. > :12:03.paying off their mortgage, helping a family member to buy a property or
:12:04. > :12:06.investing the money elsewhere. Well, earlier I spoke to the Pensions
:12:07. > :12:09.Minister. He's a Lib Dem called Steve Webb. I began by asking him if
:12:10. > :12:16.he still thought the reforms might lead to pensioners splurging all
:12:17. > :12:20.their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating
:12:21. > :12:24.people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you
:12:25. > :12:27.save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is
:12:28. > :12:33.spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have
:12:34. > :12:36.formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more
:12:37. > :12:40.relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is
:12:41. > :12:45.that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not
:12:46. > :12:49.generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people
:12:50. > :12:55.as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It
:12:56. > :13:01.is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 25000
:13:02. > :13:09.and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about
:13:10. > :13:12.5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It
:13:13. > :13:16.might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding
:13:17. > :13:20.debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are
:13:21. > :13:25.fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We
:13:26. > :13:28.will make sure when they retire, there is someone to have a
:13:29. > :13:31.conversation with talking through the implications of spending the
:13:32. > :13:40.money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step
:13:41. > :13:42.forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1
:13:43. > :13:46.million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal
:13:47. > :13:53.rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will
:13:54. > :13:59.lose huge chunks of it at the 40% band and then the 45% band. The tax
:14:00. > :14:04.system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold
:14:05. > :14:09.is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the
:14:10. > :14:18.first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is
:14:19. > :14:21.at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why,
:14:22. > :14:26.in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it
:14:27. > :14:31.out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a
:14:32. > :14:37.hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust?
:14:38. > :14:42.You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up
:14:43. > :14:46.the annuity market for a decade. The idea of giving people more choice.
:14:47. > :14:49.The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a
:14:50. > :14:53.completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America,
:14:54. > :15:02.people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it
:15:03. > :15:04.by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it
:15:05. > :15:07.through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have
:15:08. > :15:11.choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and
:15:12. > :15:16.we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce
:15:17. > :15:21.something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have
:15:22. > :15:24.given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension
:15:25. > :15:27.companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can
:15:28. > :15:34.write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment
:15:35. > :15:42.from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen.
:15:43. > :15:58.We spoke internally about the implications for instruction --
:15:59. > :16:06.infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments.
:16:07. > :16:11.Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the
:16:12. > :16:14.insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still
:16:15. > :16:19.be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the
:16:20. > :16:27.Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more
:16:28. > :16:31.savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the
:16:32. > :16:39.case that pension pots are another ordinary savings fund, so why should
:16:40. > :16:45.they continue to get favourable tax treatment? Bear in mind that a lot
:16:46. > :16:48.of the tax treatment of pensioners is tax deferred so most people pay
:16:49. > :16:55.tax at the standard rate. If they put money into a pension, they don't
:16:56. > :17:03.pay tax when they earn it, but they do at retirement. We do want, we
:17:04. > :17:09.will still have automatic enrolment into workplace pensions, we do want
:17:10. > :17:15.people to build up, because at age 20 and 30 nobody thinks about
:17:16. > :17:19.retirement. It is still vital that people do reach retirement to have
:17:20. > :17:26.these new choices with a decent sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax
:17:27. > :17:30.breaks because they were supposed to provide an income in retirement,
:17:31. > :17:36.that is how it was structured, but that is no longer a requirement,
:17:37. > :17:43.surely that undermines the case that if they get tax breaks, other forms
:17:44. > :17:54.of savings should get tax breaks. Other forms do get tax breaks, of
:17:55. > :18:00.course. The return with ISAs is tax free. The point with pensions is
:18:01. > :18:09.that you are simply deferring your earnings. There is a bit when high
:18:10. > :18:13.tax rate payers get a kick when they are working and then retire on
:18:14. > :18:19.standard rate, so there is the issue of the top getting too many tax
:18:20. > :18:25.breaks, but the basic principle that you pay tax when you get the income
:18:26. > :18:30.seems right to me and isn't affected by these changes. You have announced
:18:31. > :18:35.save friendly measures, are we right to look at them as a consolation
:18:36. > :18:39.prize because savers have suffered from the Government's policy of
:18:40. > :18:44.keeping interest rates abnormally low? It is certainly the case that
:18:45. > :18:51.very low interest rates have been a huge boon to people of working age
:18:52. > :18:54.with mortgages, and people who have retired said they thought they could
:18:55. > :18:59.have got a better deal on their savings. I think there is a
:19:00. > :19:04.recognition that whilst we have done the right thing with pensioners on
:19:05. > :19:16.the state pension, we have brought in the triple lock, and many will
:19:17. > :19:21.bent on -- benefit from these changes. Why don't savers who are
:19:22. > :19:27.not pensioners get the same help? They have been hit by low interest
:19:28. > :19:32.rates as well. Those of working age, many of them say they have
:19:33. > :19:39.benefited from low interest rates was predominantly people in
:19:40. > :19:46.retirement have not had the benefit. Obviously people of working age will
:19:47. > :19:55.have benefited from the tax allowance so it is a myth to say the
:19:56. > :19:58.Budget was all about pensioners. And yet even when the Office for Budget
:19:59. > :20:02.Responsibility takes into account your new measures, it still shows
:20:03. > :20:09.that over the next five years households will save less and less,
:20:10. > :20:15.indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of
:20:16. > :20:20.the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and
:20:21. > :20:23.as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to
:20:24. > :20:27.consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving
:20:28. > :20:36.rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is
:20:37. > :20:39.about getting the right balance. As the economy picks up, people will
:20:40. > :20:45.want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance
:20:46. > :20:49.right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with
:20:50. > :20:53.their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back
:20:54. > :20:58.on and it will be higher than it has been, but it is also the case that
:20:59. > :21:04.in these circumstances they will still be entitled to housing benefit
:21:05. > :21:09.and even to perhaps some council tax benefit as well. Do you know by how
:21:10. > :21:15.much this could put the welfare bill up? We think the impact will be
:21:16. > :21:19.relatively modest because the sort of people who save for a pension and
:21:20. > :21:26.make sacrifices while they are at work are not the sort of people who
:21:27. > :21:30.get to 65 and decide to blow the lot for the great privilege of receiving
:21:31. > :21:32.council tax benefit or housing benefit. There will be people on the
:21:33. > :21:44.margins and benefit. There will be people on the
:21:45. > :21:47.who retire with some capital want to put some money away for their
:21:48. > :21:52.funeral. People like to save even into retirement so the myth of the
:21:53. > :22:00.spendthrift pensioner I don't believe. I think this has been
:22:01. > :22:07.rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a Lamborghini yourself? If you turned
:22:08. > :22:20.the camera around you would see my 2-door Corsa!
:22:21. > :22:23.What's your favourite thing about an election? Could it be the candidates
:22:24. > :22:26.ringing on your door while you're having dinner? The leaflets piling
:22:27. > :22:28.up on your doormat? Or the endless adverts aimed at hardworking
:22:29. > :22:31.families? Well, if you thought that was bad enough, then you might want
:22:32. > :22:34.to consider going overseas for the 2015 election because the parties
:22:35. > :22:40.are going to be aiming their message at you like never before. Adam's
:22:41. > :22:45.been to Worcester to find out more. One of the most famous political
:22:46. > :22:49.figures in history lived here, she is called Worcester woman. She was
:22:50. > :22:54.in her 30s, working class with a couple of kids, aspirational yet
:22:55. > :22:58.worried about quality of life. But she wasn't a real person, she was a
:22:59. > :23:03.label for the kind of voter new Labour were trying to reach and she
:23:04. > :23:10.was later joined by Mondeo man and several others. Doesn't that all
:23:11. > :23:17.seem a bit 90s? The technique, called segmentation, was used by
:23:18. > :23:21.George Bush in 2004. Then refined by Barack Obama. Rather than focusing
:23:22. > :23:27.on crude measures like cars and hometowns, they delved into the
:23:28. > :23:31.minds of voters. It is not just women, not just people who live in
:23:32. > :23:36.cities, but if you start to put together these groups of people you
:23:37. > :23:46.can even in an anecdote or way imagine who they are, what types of
:23:47. > :23:50.language and imagery might relate to them. We have been given access to a
:23:51. > :23:57.new polling model being used here by this firm, which is pretty close to
:23:58. > :24:00.the one we are told is being used by the Tories. It carves the country
:24:01. > :24:06.into six personality types, and we are trying it out on Worcester woman
:24:07. > :24:12.and wast of man. We are using an online quiz to work out who is in
:24:13. > :24:22.which segment. Meet new monk, Susie. She feels well represented. I
:24:23. > :24:28.know the Budget and the increases to childcare, I think at the moment I
:24:29. > :24:32.am fairly represented. This puts her in the category of optimistic
:24:33. > :24:38.contentment, people who feel they are doing OK. Terry, on the other
:24:39. > :24:46.hand, isn't happy about Britain today. Health and safety and all
:24:47. > :24:56.that! I hardly recognise the country a living in any more? Yes. Are you
:24:57. > :25:01.ready for the result? He is Mr comfortable nostalgia, they tend to
:25:02. > :25:05.favour the Tories and UKIP. They dislike the cultural changes they
:25:06. > :25:11.see as altering Britain for the worst. That sums me up. Tony is
:25:12. > :25:23.worried as well but feels much less secure. I look forward to the future
:25:24. > :25:33.with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist.
:25:34. > :25:39.His category is... You feel a bit insecure, you think the Government
:25:40. > :25:44.could probably help you more? Yes. Labour picks up a lot of these
:25:45. > :25:52.voters. This man is being asked to do more and more at work, but he is
:25:53. > :25:58.getting less and less. I am getting more towards the despair side.
:25:59. > :26:03.Things are getting tougher, generally? It puts him into the
:26:04. > :26:12.segment called long-term despair, people who feel left out. Finally,
:26:13. > :26:21.this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am a bit of an idealist. Her idealism
:26:22. > :26:25.makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I am a liberal person. Apparently a
:26:26. > :26:32.lot of the media fit into this category as well. There is one group
:26:33. > :26:35.of voters we have not come across, people who show calm persistence.
:26:36. > :26:40.They hope things will get better but don't expect them to. They are
:26:41. > :26:45.coping, rather than comfortable. Presumably they are all out of work.
:26:46. > :26:50.Which group are you win? You can take the poll on the BBC website,
:26:51. > :26:55.and in the coming weeks we will be doing our own polling using the six
:26:56. > :27:02.segments to see of the politicians really have worked out how we think.
:27:03. > :27:06.And as Adam said, if you want to try the survey for yourself, you can go
:27:07. > :27:08.to the BBC website and click on the link.
:27:09. > :27:18.And we're joined now by the pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to
:27:19. > :27:24.Sunday Politics. We have had Worcester woman, Worcester man, is
:27:25. > :27:40.this any different? It is a recognition that or politician --
:27:41. > :27:48.all politics these days is like this. It enables them to cut them
:27:49. > :27:52.more finally. You think all politics is coalition politics, you think
:27:53. > :27:59.they have to put together these groups of people, not that the Lib
:28:00. > :28:04.Dems will always be in power? No, and if you listen to the coverage
:28:05. > :28:10.these days you might think it is about grumpy old men on the one hand
:28:11. > :28:14.with Guardian readers on the other. It is far more complicated than
:28:15. > :28:21.that, there is a lot of churning going on underneath which is driven
:28:22. > :28:25.by people's value systems. A lot of this has been pioneered in the
:28:26. > :28:29.United States, very sophisticated on their election techniques, and in
:28:30. > :28:35.Britain we are always the first to grab whatever the New Year will is
:28:36. > :28:39.from America. How do you think this will translate to this country? I
:28:40. > :28:44.think it means that if you are target photo you will still get the
:28:45. > :28:48.same of leaflets and people calling, but you will probably have different
:28:49. > :28:55.kinds of conversations because people on the other side, the party
:28:56. > :29:01.campaigners, will think they know more about you. Will I know who you
:29:02. > :29:06.are? If I am a party campaigner, will I know, looking down the
:29:07. > :29:10.street, who fits into which category? You will be able to
:29:11. > :29:15.approximate that with all of the other data that you have gathered
:29:16. > :29:19.through polling, or doing local campaigning, that is the idea to
:29:20. > :29:26.make sense of this vast quantity of data people have about voters. We
:29:27. > :29:32.asked our panel to fill in your survey. Nick is optimistic
:29:33. > :29:37.contentment, 99%. He was 1% cosmopolitan critic, which is how he
:29:38. > :29:41.keeps his job at the Guardian. Polly's job could not be more
:29:42. > :29:48.secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, and Janan Ganesh, optimistic
:29:49. > :29:54.contentment, which is what you would expect from a financial Times
:29:55. > :30:11.columnist. What do you make of this technique? Why are you only 99? It
:30:12. > :30:18.sounds really clever. 95% of the population five years ago voted
:30:19. > :30:22.Labour or the Conservatives. We have got away from that. It is coalition
:30:23. > :30:37.politics. You need sophisticated methods. Presumably
:30:38. > :30:43.Their initial response was that we did not know that these sort of
:30:44. > :30:48.people voted. The next response was, we did not know these people
:30:49. > :30:51.existed. You have all of these very clever method, but unless you know
:30:52. > :30:56.about certain key demographics you are wasting your time. Is it
:30:57. > :31:02.helpful, or imported in modern campaigning, or is it a gimmick? It
:31:03. > :31:08.is useful, it is about attitudes. We have a core, mosaic, we have ways to
:31:09. > :31:11.do its street by street depending on their income or occupation. This
:31:12. > :31:18.increasingly does not tell us very much. It may be different to their
:31:19. > :31:22.income, you can be quite a high error and anxious, quite a low
:31:23. > :31:26.earner and be fuelling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I
:31:27. > :31:31.think this does get at something closer to the issue. Kilmer Polly is
:31:32. > :31:35.right on attitudes, in days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:36. > :31:37.overwhelmingly if you were in the better off segment you voted
:31:38. > :31:44.Republican in the blue-collar worker voted Democrat. In the last
:31:45. > :31:49.election, the richest 200 counties in America voted Democrat, and that
:31:50. > :31:56.is an attitude thing. Income does not tell you how people will vote.
:31:57. > :31:59.There is a huge working-class support for the Republicans. It is
:32:00. > :32:04.unavoidable. At a time when people no longer identify with ideologies
:32:05. > :32:08.or parties or class blocks you have to go with temperament and a
:32:09. > :32:15.lifestyle in Outlook. The danger is that you over segment. I think it
:32:16. > :32:20.was Karl rove who said that the end up with something like 128 segments,
:32:21. > :32:23.according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that feed it becomes
:32:24. > :32:28.close to useless for the strategist. We have the budget, how
:32:29. > :32:33.do you read the polls? What are they telling us? Wait Mac you to be have
:32:34. > :32:38.seen today have narrowed the beat of labour over the Conservatives. I
:32:39. > :32:43.think you have two week and see if the trend set in over the next few
:32:44. > :32:48.weeks. Osborne and Cameron as an economic team have always had a lead
:32:49. > :32:52.over Miliband and Ed Balls, and this week has always been about economic
:32:53. > :32:59.management. Next week it is about my own personal circumstances, we will
:33:00. > :33:03.see if that is sustained as a trend. We will see how we get on in these
:33:04. > :33:08.segments. Thank you for being with us.
:33:09. > :33:10.It has just gone 11:30am, we say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who
:33:11. > :33:18.leave us now for something Politics Scotland.
:33:19. > :33:25.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up, Labour
:33:26. > :33:28.moves to reclaim the ground on social justice from the SNP but is
:33:29. > :33:37.accused of being short on policy detail. Look beyond the sole tyre,
:33:38. > :33:40.look beyond the plague, look beyond the Scotland the Nationalists are
:33:41. > :33:44.building and what they plan to build. Scotland's manufacturers
:33:45. > :33:49.welcomed the budget announcement on reducing the costs of energy. The
:33:50. > :33:53.Scottish government say this increases uncertainty to the
:33:54. > :33:56.renewables industry. In one of's addressed to her party faithful in
:33:57. > :34:01.Perth yesterday was full of criticism of her opponents. Joanne
:34:02. > :34:08.Lamb at's addressed. She said the SNP where is honest and she was
:34:09. > :34:19.criticised for a lack of detail. I will speak to draw had one shortly.
:34:20. > :34:26.-- Speaker Jalan laminate. What reasons do Labour people have
:34:27. > :34:33.to be cheerful? What is there to smile about? Leading a party that is
:34:34. > :34:38.out of power at Westminster and Holyrood is not the happiest lot,
:34:39. > :34:41.but at this conference, Labour 's leaders have sought to present an
:34:42. > :34:47.alternative to the SNP 's independence offer. Nationalists
:34:48. > :34:51.tell us to have the confidence to leave the United Kingdom. I say to
:34:52. > :34:59.Scotland, have the confidence to lead the United Kingdom. Johann
:35:00. > :35:04.Lamont believes that can be done by devolving more power to the Scottish
:35:05. > :35:07.Parliament. All those in favour... The plans of the devolution
:35:08. > :35:12.commission she set up regular analyst endorsed by conference. And
:35:13. > :35:17.when the UK party leader was asked if he would deliver the package he
:35:18. > :35:22.replied... Yes, because it is the right thing to do and it is the
:35:23. > :35:24.right way to combine fairness and redistribution across the United
:35:25. > :35:30.Kingdom with bringing power closer to people in Scotland. What is the
:35:31. > :35:36.big picture Labour has painted here in Paris? If there is a no vote in
:35:37. > :35:41.the independent referendum and Labour wins the next UK general
:35:42. > :35:45.election in 2015 Ed Miliband is promising a package of extra powers
:35:46. > :35:53.for Holyrood including control of housing benefit, responsibility for
:35:54. > :35:57.the first 15p of income tax, the power to raise the top rate of
:35:58. > :36:02.income tax. That is Labour 's alternative to the independence
:36:03. > :36:08.offer. The commission watered down its original proposal to fully
:36:09. > :36:12.devolved income tax. And to avoid what the leadership of Europe would
:36:13. > :36:17.become a race to the bottom in corporation tax competition between
:36:18. > :36:20.Scotland and the rest of the UK, they have rejected transferring that
:36:21. > :36:25.power. Some in the party would have liked them to be bolder. For me it
:36:26. > :36:30.is slightly disappointing in the sense that we could have gone
:36:31. > :36:33.further and initial ideas were thrown around as I thought it would
:36:34. > :36:37.be a more radical package but the main thing is they now have a
:36:38. > :36:40.package, the Lib Dems have a package and be unwitting or the
:36:41. > :36:47.Conservatives. The key thing for the Unionist parties is to make sure we
:36:48. > :36:50.explain what a no vote means. And agreed plan between Labour and the
:36:51. > :36:56.other prounion parties is unlikely. The shadow Foreign Secretary
:36:57. > :37:00.believes Labour has the right offer. New powers on taxation and welfare
:37:01. > :37:03.and democratic powers we are again the party of Scottish home rule.
:37:04. > :37:07.That is not the comfortable lesson for the Nationalists and I believe
:37:08. > :37:12.it is a winning formula for Scottish liver. That will be tested in the
:37:13. > :37:16.referendum campaign. In which those in favour of independence will argue
:37:17. > :37:19.the additional powers a yes vote would deliver are needed to make
:37:20. > :37:25.Scotland a wealthier and fairer country. Labour said that can be
:37:26. > :37:30.achieved by returning their party to government and Holyrood and
:37:31. > :37:39.Westminster. The Nationalists say my country, right or wrong. We see, my
:37:40. > :37:43.country, we will rate the wrongs. Wedding back power tends to make
:37:44. > :37:47.politicians cheerful, for the time being Johann Lamont will have to
:37:48. > :37:55.settle for winning a party round to a more powers plan and running an
:37:56. > :37:59.ovation from conference. The Scottish Labour leader joins me
:38:00. > :38:05.from the party conference. Good afternoon. You said yesterday that
:38:06. > :38:10.the Nationalists had failed to distribute wealth from rich to poor,
:38:11. > :38:14.what are your plans to do that? We have said over the next period we
:38:15. > :38:19.are going to look at how we invest in education, health and protection
:38:20. > :38:22.of our older people. Keep people secure and work and throughout the
:38:23. > :38:27.process we will make sure that we do address need but be very clear, we
:38:28. > :38:33.are on the road to 2016 in our manifesto, we made very clear our
:38:34. > :38:37.spending proposals. You said the hundred million you would generally
:38:38. > :38:41.only 50p rate of income tax would go to the NHS. That benefits everyone
:38:42. > :38:46.so there is nothing redistributive about that. What other measures are
:38:47. > :38:50.you likely to bring forward? With respect there is always a balance.
:38:51. > :38:53.What we said was that with the hundred million pounds Regal said
:38:54. > :38:59.that was not much money but we made the point that you could have 3000
:39:00. > :39:03.nurses. But ahead of 2016 we will make very clear what our spending
:39:04. > :39:05.proposals are. We will invest in the health service or everyone
:39:06. > :39:12.benefits... That does not specifically help people. I agree
:39:13. > :39:15.with you, I am seeing that in any spending decisions there are things
:39:16. > :39:20.that you will spend, clearly the health service is a good example of
:39:21. > :39:24.how you meet need where it arises. We also have said that the
:39:25. > :39:29.medication policy we must look at second chance education. We have
:39:30. > :39:33.140,000 places out of our college sector in the last period. If you
:39:34. > :39:36.invest in that not only do you support people who have perhaps feel
:39:37. > :39:39.that schools a number of reasons but you skilled people are in a way that
:39:40. > :39:43.business is telling us they require. That is the balance. We will make
:39:44. > :39:49.sure everyone knows our spending proposals ahead of 2016. Those who
:39:50. > :39:55.fall into the 50p tax rate make up half of 1% of the population. When
:39:56. > :40:00.it comes to the rich in this context is it's just that group you are
:40:01. > :40:05.talking about? What we said is that we made a specific commitment on the
:40:06. > :40:08.50p tax rate. I am surprised that the First Minister is able to commit
:40:09. > :40:13.to big business that he will cut corporation tax by 3p on the pound.
:40:14. > :40:19.I am asking you who you deem to be rich. He does not feel he can make
:40:20. > :40:23.that commitment. He can't make that commitment on income tax. That is
:40:24. > :40:27.surprising. What we have also said is that in relation to this the
:40:28. > :40:31.people in Scotland get, who matter how much the, that it is about
:40:32. > :40:36.fairness and we make sure that we can contribute and share that. Above
:40:37. > :40:42.what level of earnings and people expect to pay more tax under Labour?
:40:43. > :40:46.With respect I have said the commitment is on 50p. Half of 1% of
:40:47. > :40:52.the working population. What about the rest? It is significant but what
:40:53. > :40:56.we have said about our general tax proposals is that we will bring them
:40:57. > :40:59.forward ahead of 2016. What we are talking about at this conference and
:41:00. > :41:04.it has been a fantastic conference for us, with great excitement in the
:41:05. > :41:07.hall and on the fringe, what we have said is that it is really important
:41:08. > :41:13.that we address these questions more brightly. Why can't you tell us who
:41:14. > :41:19.you regard as being rich in Scotland at this stage? Who has the broadest
:41:20. > :41:25.shoulders? I made a specific commitment on 50p. We believe that
:41:26. > :41:29.is a fair decision. Don't those out with that half of 1% have a right to
:41:30. > :41:34.know whether you are considering taxing them more? And they will, but
:41:35. > :41:38.across Scotland people tell me regardless of the individual income
:41:39. > :41:42.they are concerned about education, secure work for their sons and
:41:43. > :41:46.daughters, and they are anxious about what is happening to their
:41:47. > :41:51.parents. That is not an issue about income, it is about how you for the
:41:52. > :41:55.services. What people need. That is something that across Scotland
:41:56. > :41:58.people understand. Have made a specific commitment on the 50p and
:41:59. > :42:02.will bring forward attacks were Poles head of 2016. I think they
:42:03. > :42:07.stand in very good comparison with the Scottish government who talks
:42:08. > :42:12.about dealing with poverty, takes ?1 billion out of poverty programmes,
:42:13. > :42:16.will permit the tax cut for big business but has nothing to say
:42:17. > :42:22.about what they would do about the tax cut form billionaires that
:42:23. > :42:27.George Osborne delivered. We have a reasonable idea about the priorities
:42:28. > :42:30.of the SNP, but not from you. You talk about Scotland is not being a
:42:31. > :42:35.something for nothing society so do you anticipate the axe falling on
:42:36. > :42:38.benefits that people receive? I don't accept that we have a clear
:42:39. > :42:42.view of the Scottish government priorities, they say one thing and
:42:43. > :42:46.do another. The biggest challenge I would put to them is that they say
:42:47. > :42:50.they believe in equal CDs of things that are entirely unconcerned about
:42:51. > :42:56.the consequences at local level of people not being able to access
:42:57. > :43:01.services. But having a care package. In terms of your
:43:02. > :43:04.priorities... I have been very clear that our priorities will always be
:43:05. > :43:13.to meet need and be honest with people. In that spirit of honesty,
:43:14. > :43:17.which NES -- which areas do you feel the axe should follow? Do you
:43:18. > :43:24.believe that free prescriptions in a step too far? Free bus travel?
:43:25. > :43:27.Jewish and he's been paid? With respect, people don't recognise the
:43:28. > :43:32.way that you are describing this conversation. I am not talking about
:43:33. > :43:35.an axe falling, I am talking about tough times, how do we make sure
:43:36. > :43:41.those most in need get the support they can? We have a bus pass but no
:43:42. > :43:45.bus. The prescriptions by people travel to England for cancer drugs.
:43:46. > :43:49.As one understands that in tough times we must look at what our
:43:50. > :43:53.priorities are. We are looking at all of these things but we start
:43:54. > :43:57.from a basic principle of understanding what people really
:43:58. > :44:04.need and what their concerns are and that is how we are looking at this.
:44:05. > :44:06.Are looking at these things... We are talking about the Scottish
:44:07. > :44:09.government that says everything is perfect except the things over which
:44:10. > :44:13.we have no control and somehow everything will be sorted in the
:44:14. > :44:17.future. People understand these are tough times and we must treat them
:44:18. > :44:21.with respect. Avenue commitment to the crew that we talked about
:44:22. > :44:24.yesterday, do you support the benefits cap proposed at
:44:25. > :45:03.Westminster? You said we want the welfare system that is there,
:45:04. > :45:12.want a limit, the managing limit on welfare. The individual needs and
:45:13. > :45:17.should be met. This is not about an individual cap. There will be an
:45:18. > :45:22.important benefit coming to Scotland. One of the opportunities
:45:23. > :45:26.is to look at the way in which the Housing benefit is abused by rogue
:45:27. > :45:30.private landlords. They not only provide good tenancies for those
:45:31. > :45:33.living in their properties, do not manage those tendencies and there
:45:34. > :45:37.are some things consequences for our order communities, that is a huge
:45:38. > :45:41.opportunity for us and about making sure our wealth is spent will
:45:42. > :45:44.meeting need. We don't accept the division that the Tories want to
:45:45. > :45:48.create that somehow there is a world where there are people who work in
:45:49. > :45:52.people who shirk. The Scottish government know that, to be fair to
:45:53. > :45:58.them. On your plans that you announce that this week, you wrote
:45:59. > :46:01.back on your plans of one year ago for full devolution of income tax.
:46:02. > :46:10.Was that vetoed by Ed Balls? Absolutely not. Video concerns? What
:46:11. > :46:14.we have said to you that in the devolution commission be said that
:46:15. > :46:18.we were minded to devolve all income tax and then we said this would not
:46:19. > :46:22.be to the detriment of the people of Scotland. We have spent the past
:46:23. > :46:25.year looking at that in one of the things that emerges very strongly is
:46:26. > :46:32.that there is a balance to be struck. At what point do you take
:46:33. > :46:37.too much risk? What are the benefits of being part of the United Kingdom,
:46:38. > :46:41.we share a benefits and risk and resources. I think people understand
:46:42. > :46:46.that. Equally, there is uneven growth in the economy, for example
:46:47. > :46:52.in London, this can be redistributed along the United Kingdom and we want
:46:53. > :46:55.the benefit for that we want to find out what is the balance and ensure
:46:56. > :46:59.fiscal accountability that matches the degree of political devolution
:47:00. > :47:02.but at the same time does not turn our face away from that
:47:03. > :47:06.redistribution of the United Kingdom which protectors in tough times. We
:47:07. > :47:09.have the balance absolutely right. I am absolutely confident going
:47:10. > :47:15.forward that these strengthening of the Scottish Parliament, being
:47:16. > :47:19.strong inside the United Kingdom, is the balance the people of Scotland
:47:20. > :47:22.need. If there is a Labour government after the next general
:47:23. > :47:28.election, would you work with the Tories and Lib Dems on their plans
:47:29. > :47:31.for further devolution? This is an interesting discussion, indeed
:47:32. > :47:34.currently we work with our colleagues in Better Together. We
:47:35. > :47:40.have decided that we will put aside party division and separation on the
:47:41. > :47:43.one thing that we agree on, which is about Scotland standing strong in
:47:44. > :47:51.the United Kingdom. People will combat. I made two points. -- people
:47:52. > :47:55.welcome that. I said I would never turn my face away from co-operation
:47:56. > :47:59.if we can achieve it, and I believe it is important for the country. So
:48:00. > :48:03.does that mean that your announcement may not be the final
:48:04. > :48:07.version of what we get? I would never create a false agreement in
:48:08. > :48:10.order to get us past September because we must be honest and act in
:48:11. > :48:14.good faith with the people of Scotland. When we can agree we
:48:15. > :48:18.shall, where we can't we can people not pretend. There are some things
:48:19. > :48:22.in this adamant we medically on, whether it is representation of the
:48:23. > :48:27.Barnett formula, whatever. But what we did this weekend is identifying
:48:28. > :48:31.the Labour proposals to the power of a Scottish Parliament and don't
:48:32. > :48:35.forget some of the key elements that may be of less interest to the
:48:36. > :48:41.commentators, the key elements of this is for example simple issues.
:48:42. > :48:44.The fact that in Scotland we have a disproportionate number of working
:48:45. > :48:48.people who go to work and support their families and end up injured.
:48:49. > :48:59.We will enforce health and safety. And make sure we address that gap.
:49:00. > :49:03.Devolution is a U make a difference to the lives of ordinary people.
:49:04. > :49:06.Some people interpreted what you said about the First Minister as an
:49:07. > :49:10.attack on him for not having children but bringing in child
:49:11. > :49:16.care, new childcare policies. Why did you make your speech so
:49:17. > :49:20.personal? Absolutely not. I need a simple point. I have never heard the
:49:21. > :49:25.First Minister take about -- talk about childcare. I have campaigned
:49:26. > :49:28.for childcare all of my political life and my poor is that what
:49:29. > :49:32.happened with the burst Minister is that he has been told he does not go
:49:33. > :49:35.down well with women and he therefore creates a policy about
:49:36. > :49:40.childcare. That felt cynical to me and I don't think it is appropriate.
:49:41. > :49:45.Now we discover his childcare proposal is only a work in progress,
:49:46. > :49:51.it is not a commitment to people in Scotland. People do not like that
:49:52. > :49:56.kind of cynicism. Thank you for joining us from Perth.
:49:57. > :49:58.This week's budget was hailed by the Chancellor as containing measures to
:49:59. > :50:02.enable the country's "makers and doers." He said he wanted UK
:50:03. > :50:05.industry to be more competitive and to that end George Osborne announced
:50:06. > :50:09.a freeze on one green levy on our energy bills. It could save each
:50:10. > :50:13.household up to ?50 a year by 2020 and has been welcomed by business
:50:14. > :50:16.leaders. It was part of a wider package to help cut energy costs for
:50:17. > :50:19.manufacturers but what do those measures tell us about the country's
:50:20. > :50:21.commitment to renewable energy? Megan Paterson reports.
:50:22. > :50:25.Green levies are the government's way of making companies pay out for
:50:26. > :50:29.what they put into the atmosphere. So if you are a business run lion
:50:30. > :50:34.phone call or gas burning, you will pay the price for pollution. --
:50:35. > :50:39.e-business reliant on coal or gas burning. Our steelmakers, chemical
:50:40. > :50:44.plants, paper mills, and other heavy energy users a cup 35% of our
:50:45. > :50:48.manufacturing exports and employ half a million people. This scheme
:50:49. > :50:53.helps the companies most at risk of leaving to remain in the UK. That
:50:54. > :50:57.support has been well received by Scotland's heavy industries. It has
:50:58. > :51:00.been a positive budget that has demonstrated for the first time in a
:51:01. > :51:05.long time that the Government is willing to actually do something to
:51:06. > :51:08.stimulate manufacturing growth. And it addresses an issue of lack of
:51:09. > :51:13.competitiveness with other European countries. Especially lack of
:51:14. > :51:19.competitiveness with the USA, where the energy element of course is
:51:20. > :51:23.significantly advantageous for companies exporting into Europe from
:51:24. > :51:27.the US. The main measures include the phasing of the carbon support
:51:28. > :51:32.rate, the tax on businesses emitting CO2 was introduced last April. This
:51:33. > :51:37.year, Mr Osborne confirmed it will be frozen from 2016 but at the end
:51:38. > :51:40.of the decade. Government compensation to offset the carbon
:51:41. > :51:45.rate for businesses were due to come to an end next year. It has now been
:51:46. > :51:48.extended until 2020, and George Osborne says there will be more
:51:49. > :51:52.financial help available for energy intensive industries. There was no
:51:53. > :51:57.reduction in investment in renewable energy in the budget, but there is
:51:58. > :52:01.some concern the measures signal a change in the government's green
:52:02. > :52:05.agenda. This Government came in with a very clear promise that it would
:52:06. > :52:08.be the greenest Government ever. There is very little evidence of
:52:09. > :52:12.that in actual practical terms because every time we see the
:52:13. > :52:17.Government and I'm something, it rolled back on the fuel price
:52:18. > :52:23.escalator, it reduces the target for carbon reduction. And now it has
:52:24. > :52:27.reduced its carbon price escalator for using carbon in generating
:52:28. > :52:30.electricity. All of these price increases are trying to send a
:52:31. > :52:35.message to industry and citizens that we need to be more efficient in
:52:36. > :52:43.using carbon. We must find weight of -- we must find ways of capturing
:52:44. > :52:46.carbon. I think there is no environmental benefit to having a
:52:47. > :52:52.steelworks or a chemical plant in the UK closed down just to reopen in
:52:53. > :52:55.Belgium or Germany or France, and emit exactly the same amount of
:52:56. > :53:00.pollution in those countries. The most important thing we can do is to
:53:01. > :53:07.make sure that more of the power that those factories are consuming
:53:08. > :53:10.is generated from renewable sources. The Scottish Government disagrees,
:53:11. > :53:17.claiming that the policy changes add uncertainty to the energy industry,
:53:18. > :53:22.and industry experts say that uncertainty could affect investment.
:53:23. > :53:25.There are 34,000 people employed in the industry, that could double by
:53:26. > :53:29.2020 but only if we get the policy right. That is why the Government
:53:30. > :53:33.are sending this long-term signal. If the Government change their mind,
:53:34. > :53:37.investors have to go back to the drawing board and rethink what is
:53:38. > :53:40.best for them. There has been no sign of investors changing plans
:53:41. > :53:43.yet, but with the Scottish Government reasserting its
:53:44. > :53:48.commitment to renewables, and the referendum on the horizon, it would
:53:49. > :53:54.seem future energy plans like prices are far from fixed.
:53:55. > :53:57.I'm joined now in the studio by MSP Patrick Harvie from the Scottish
:53:58. > :54:01.Green Party, and from Aberdeen by Conservative MSP Alex Johnstone.
:54:02. > :54:05.Good afternoon. Patrick Harvie, do you welcome the moves from the
:54:06. > :54:11.Chancellor on green levies? Can you guess just how much I welcome them?
:54:12. > :54:14.No. The Chancellor is very clearly enacting the slogan that David
:54:15. > :54:23.Cameron was rumoured to have used in Downing Street, which is to cut the
:54:24. > :54:26.green expletive deleted. The removal of the enterprise investment scheme
:54:27. > :54:29.from renewable energy industries, the additional subsidies to heavily
:54:30. > :54:33.polluting industries, whether domestic industries or indeed long
:54:34. > :54:39.haul aviation gets an additional subsidy. The tinkering about the
:54:40. > :54:43.edges with the signals, the price signals that are supported to
:54:44. > :54:48.support investment in renewables, at the same time as saying he wants
:54:49. > :54:53.certainty for investors we can extract every last drop of oil, this
:54:54. > :54:57.is clearly a Government which has decided that the greenest Government
:54:58. > :55:01.ever was just a bad joke. On the carbon price floor, it will reduce
:55:02. > :55:06.our energy bills, we are told it could reduce them by ?50 per year
:55:07. > :55:11.for people by 2020. Why should consumers bear the burden? There is
:55:12. > :55:14.no guarantee that that will be passed onto individual household
:55:15. > :55:18.electricity consumers. Energy companies will be under pressure to
:55:19. > :55:22.do that. They have been for a long time and they don't always do that.
:55:23. > :55:26.It will save heavily polluting industries some money. The carbon
:55:27. > :55:30.price floor is not the only way to send a signal. There is a reasonable
:55:31. > :55:35.case for getting rid of it and using that money in a different way. If it
:55:36. > :55:38.is going to be there, it is clear that it only can deliver carbon
:55:39. > :55:43.savings if it is a long-term consistent approach. But it is
:55:44. > :55:47.regressive, isn't it? They are adding this levy to people's bills,
:55:48. > :55:51.those who are on the lowest incomes hardest hit. The best way to support
:55:52. > :55:55.people on lowest incomes to make sure they are living in really
:55:56. > :55:58.high-quality, well insulated homes that don't require them to use up
:55:59. > :56:06.lots of energy and money to heat their home. There is a case against
:56:07. > :56:09.the carbon price floor as a mechanism. There could be better
:56:10. > :56:13.ways of spending the money. If that policy is going to continue instead
:56:14. > :56:15.of being scrapped, it is only going to deliver benefits if it is
:56:16. > :56:19.gradually increased over the long-term instead of frozen. Alex
:56:20. > :56:22.Johnstone, those who work in the renewable industry say that they
:56:23. > :56:26.operate these changes by the Chancellor might have a bad effect
:56:27. > :56:31.on cleaner ways of generating energy. Is that a price worth paying
:56:32. > :56:41.so that we can all save ?50 in the next five years? They should not
:56:42. > :56:45.worry. There has no -- be no cut in the support. But we have to
:56:46. > :56:51.recognise here is that the effect of the carbon floor price on some of
:56:52. > :56:55.our large enemy consumers -- energy consumers would have been twofold.
:56:56. > :56:58.We had continued upward trajectory of the carbon price floor it would
:56:59. > :57:06.have made business in Britain more expensive then it would be in other
:57:07. > :57:09.European countries. Simply exporting those carbon emissions to other
:57:10. > :57:12.European countries and at the same time export jobs, that is at a time
:57:13. > :57:16.when the British economy is showing genuine signs of recovery. We need
:57:17. > :57:21.to actually foster that recovery to entrench our position in terms of
:57:22. > :57:26.carbon emissions and by giving this level of confidence, this level of
:57:27. > :57:29.predictability to the carbon floor price over the next decade, the
:57:30. > :57:34.Chancellor has sent out the right signals. This particular policy was
:57:35. > :57:37.only introduced in the last couple of years, it should not have, it
:57:38. > :57:42.should not have come as a surprise that by introducing it, prices would
:57:43. > :57:46.go up year on year. It does not show much faith in the policy, doesn't
:57:47. > :57:53.it? The policy is found, the Government has decided to pursue it
:57:54. > :57:58.in a different way. What we must remember is that we must remain
:57:59. > :58:02.positive. To remain competitive we have to ensure we are doing roughly
:58:03. > :58:07.the same thing to our industries at roughly the same time. We need to
:58:08. > :58:10.reduce carbon emissions at an international game, that should be
:58:11. > :58:13.obvious to everyone. There is nothing to be gained by Britain
:58:14. > :58:18.sibling making an example of itself and destroying its own industry and
:58:19. > :58:21.destroying jobs simply to prove a point when all we are doing is
:58:22. > :58:27.exporting the emissions and the jobs as well. Is taxation the best way of
:58:28. > :58:32.encouraging more development in the renewables and other sectors? I
:58:33. > :58:39.would love to see a Government, either in Scotland or the UK, put
:58:40. > :58:42.its weight behind a drive to produce a publicly owned or community owned
:58:43. > :58:47.large-scale renewable energy industry, so that we can start
:58:48. > :58:50.investing with public money and generate profits that come back to
:58:51. > :58:55.the public. That does not need to be a monolithic approach. It could be
:58:56. > :58:58.part of a mixed market with public, community owned and private sector
:58:59. > :59:01.investors as well but that is not going to happen from the UK
:59:02. > :59:07.Government. I don't expect that to happen. There are approaches to have
:59:08. > :59:10.a market and this kind of corporate welfare is review the likely little
:59:11. > :59:14.bit of money here are there to give companies incentives. If what they
:59:15. > :59:17.were doing is writing a cheque for 20 million quid or whatever the
:59:18. > :59:22.equivalent is of the carbon price floor, and seeing two businesses,
:59:23. > :59:25.you will get this money if you stay, invest in this country, support jobs
:59:26. > :59:31.in this country and at the same time reduce your emissions, I am not
:59:32. > :59:35.cover the bowl with corporate welfare is but that wouldn't sure we
:59:36. > :59:37.get the investment. The budget him in the same day the Scottish
:59:38. > :59:41.Government give consent to very large wind farm operations in the
:59:42. > :59:45.Moray Firth. Is there not an argument that says this industry has
:59:46. > :59:49.now reached critical mass and it is time for it to stand on its own two
:59:50. > :59:55.feet? On shore, we are close to that. The prices getting very close
:59:56. > :59:57.to what they call grid parity, were effectively it does not need
:59:58. > :00:01.additional support. This is how an industry develops. It gets to that
:00:02. > :00:05.point and then it can fly on its own. Offshore wind is going to take
:00:06. > :00:09.a while to get to that point, it will take more investment and
:00:10. > :00:12.certainty and clarity from the Government around issues like the
:00:13. > :00:16.carbon price. Issues like regulation. This is the same
:00:17. > :00:21.argument we hear from the Tories, the Liberals, the Labour and SNP in
:00:22. > :00:24.relation to the oil industry. They show great commitment to extracting
:00:25. > :00:27.every last drop of the substance that is causing this problem in the
:00:28. > :00:32.first place. They are not showing the same commitment and clarity for
:00:33. > :00:36.renewable energy. Woodlock told that the Government at Westminster was
:00:37. > :00:40.going to be the greenest ever. -- we were told that the Government. But
:00:41. > :00:45.now they are backing off on one of the main planks of its green policy.
:00:46. > :00:47.Does this tell us that they are more concerned with the fortunes of their
:00:48. > :00:52.election than they are with the environment? Learn that the
:00:53. > :00:58.electoral cycle will always play a part. But this is not evidence that
:00:59. > :01:02.the UK Government is backing off from its green priorities. It
:01:03. > :01:06.continues to support renewable energy. There has been no reduction
:01:07. > :01:10.in that. What we are talking about in terms of the carbon price floor
:01:11. > :01:13.is limiting the rise rather than suggesting it should be reduced.
:01:14. > :01:19.That is not the only thing that has been changed. Some companies are
:01:20. > :01:25.exempt from renewable obligations, which was designed to support the
:01:26. > :01:31.renewables sector. This is about making the economy greener. This is
:01:32. > :01:34.not an economic suicide mission. It is not our duty to destroy industry
:01:35. > :01:39.in this country and simply export jobs along with emissions in order
:01:40. > :01:44.to try to achieve some personal satisfaction here. The Government
:01:45. > :01:50.has a duty to ensure that industry is coerced gently toward achieving
:01:51. > :01:53.all it can, but also at the same time allowed to expand and create
:01:54. > :01:57.the jobs it can and remember, these changes have a disproportionate
:01:58. > :02:03.effect in areas like Scotland, Wales and the North of England where these
:02:04. > :02:06.taxis have had the most significant impact. We are saving jobs and
:02:07. > :02:13.communities where they are essential. Thank you both. We're not
:02:14. > :02:19.going to meet these targets if we see this approach continue. Thank
:02:20. > :02:22.you both very much indeed. Coming up after the news, our look
:02:23. > :02:26.at the week ahead. You're watching Sunday Politics Scotland. Now it's
:02:27. > :02:28.time to cross to the news from Reporting Scotland with Andrew Kerr.
:02:29. > :02:32.Good afternoon. Police are investigating what's being described
:02:33. > :02:35.as a serious incident at a house in Thornton in Fife. An ambulance crew
:02:36. > :02:42.alerted officers yesterday evening at 7.50pm when they were called to a
:02:43. > :02:48.house. More details are expected to be released shortly.
:02:49. > :02:50.A new report says the Treasury's reasons for rejecting a
:02:51. > :02:55.post-independence currency union are "unsubstantiated". The Scottish
:02:56. > :02:58.Government has welcomed the analysis by Professor Leslie Young. The
:02:59. > :03:02.businessman, Sir Tom Hunter, commissioned the report. Better
:03:03. > :03:08.Together says the analysis is flawed - and the First Minister must tell
:03:09. > :03:12.voters his Plan B. In the next hour, thousands of
:03:13. > :03:16.Aberdeen fans will pack the city's Union Street to welcome the Scottish
:03:17. > :03:22.League Cup trophy parade. The Dons beat Inverness 4-2 last weekend in a
:03:23. > :03:26.penalty shoot out. Fans will find out this afternoon if the "Don't You
:03:27. > :03:31.Want Me" song has topped the charts - made popular by the "Peter Pawlett
:03:32. > :03:33.Baby" lyrics. Now let's take a look at the weather
:03:34. > :03:38.with Judith. Now let's take a look
:03:39. > :03:41.Good afternoon. It is not often I can come on and say it is a gorgeous
:03:42. > :03:44.afternoon on the cards across much of the country, Spring chancing.
:03:45. > :03:48.Someone took showers across more northerly parts but they will become
:03:49. > :03:54.more confined to the Northern Isles, eventually clearing. -- spring
:03:55. > :03:58.sunshine. The wind will ease down and size of around seven or eight
:03:59. > :04:00.Celsius. As we head into the evening, we lose any showers in the
:04:01. > :04:04.north so it will be dry across-the-board. A cold night under
:04:05. > :04:06.those clear skies, widespread frost and the winds will be light.
:04:07. > :04:10.and the That is all for the moment. I will
:04:11. > :04:15.hand you back to Gary. Thanks, Andrew. Now in a moment,
:04:16. > :04:19.we'll be discussing the big events coming up this week at Holyrood. But
:04:20. > :04:26.first, let's take a look back at the Week in Sixty seconds.
:04:27. > :04:29.With six months until the independence referendum, the former
:04:30. > :04:33.Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy called for no campaigners to
:04:34. > :04:36.be more positive. And for a more coherent blueprint for further
:04:37. > :04:40.devolution to be agreed before the vote. Scottish ministers agreed that
:04:41. > :04:43.opponents needed to be clearer about their plans. In the budget, the
:04:44. > :04:48.Chancellor announced measures to help pensioners, Sabres to support
:04:49. > :04:52.investment in North Sea oil and the. There was good news for another
:04:53. > :04:58.industry as well. Scottish whiskey is a huge British success story. To
:04:59. > :05:02.support that industry instead of raising duties on Scotch whiskey and
:05:03. > :05:07.other spirits, I am today going to freeze them. It was revealed
:05:08. > :05:10.Scottish police and the UK security agencies have held discussions about
:05:11. > :05:14.plans for sharing intelligence if there is a Yes vote. Security and
:05:15. > :05:18.intelligence is currently reserved for Westminster. Falkirk MP Eric
:05:19. > :05:22.Joyce admitted a breach of the peace at Edinburgh Airport last year. He
:05:23. > :05:28.says he is considering whether to continue as an independent MP.
:05:29. > :05:37.It's time to have a look at the stories that are making the news
:05:38. > :05:42.today and in the week ahead. I am joined this week from Perth by
:05:43. > :05:46.two journalists, David Clegg from the Daily Record and Tom Gordon from
:05:47. > :05:49.the Sunday Herald. Good afternoon. As you are in Perth, let's start
:05:50. > :05:54.with your analysis of what Johann Lamont had to say yesterday. What
:05:55. > :05:58.did you make of the speech? I thought it was a pretty strong
:05:59. > :06:01.speech. One of the problems with the referendum campaign for Labour so
:06:02. > :06:05.far has been it has not spoken to their base and we have seen that in
:06:06. > :06:07.the fact that almost one quarter of Labour supporters in 2011 were
:06:08. > :06:11.planning to vote for independence. They need to give them positive
:06:12. > :06:15.reasons to vote no in the referendum. To think a Labour
:06:16. > :06:18.Government in Hollywood will be something they want to see. They
:06:19. > :06:24.have started to move towards doing that. Did we get that positivity? We
:06:25. > :06:28.heard criticism of the SNP, but very little in the way of specifics on
:06:29. > :06:34.policy from Labour for the period ahead. That's right. It was a
:06:35. > :06:43.positioning speech for the referendum. I agree, it has been
:06:44. > :06:48.driven by Labour voters. It was a speech given by anxiety rather than
:06:49. > :06:52.self-confidence. I think a sign that also was a pretty relentless attack
:06:53. > :06:57.she made on SMP and nationalists and Alex Salmond personally. It did not
:06:58. > :07:01.seem a positive speech. Does that work for the wider electorate, that
:07:02. > :07:03.attack on the SNP? Opinion polls tell us the First Minister's
:07:04. > :07:10.approval ratings are still pretty high. It is part of a wider Better
:07:11. > :07:14.Together campaign strategy to undermine the honesty and integrity
:07:15. > :07:18.of the First Minister. A lot of what is being asked of voters in the
:07:19. > :07:20.referendum is to take a bit of a leap in the dark, and if they can
:07:21. > :07:27.undermine Alex Hammond as someone who you would not trust, that is the
:07:28. > :07:32.tragedy they are pursuing. How it works with voters outside the wider
:07:33. > :07:35.public, I am not sure. -- that is the strategy they are pursuing.
:07:36. > :07:39.There is a great deal of dispute on these issues on currency and unit
:07:40. > :07:46.and people are having to go with who they feel is telling the truth. --
:07:47. > :07:53.currency and Europe. The world's biggest investment fund manager has
:07:54. > :07:56.set out that analysis of Scottish independence. They said it would
:07:57. > :08:00.bring uncertainty, cost and risk. If this significant for another
:08:01. > :08:06.interjection that will reinforce positions? This will have a
:08:07. > :08:12.cumulative effect, it is yet another intervention. This is the world 's
:08:13. > :08:18.largest fund manager, $.5 trillion worth of assets. What it says will
:08:19. > :08:21.be listened to. It has the phrase kilted securities, the idea that
:08:22. > :08:25.Scotland would have to pay more for raising debt in the international
:08:26. > :08:29.market. It is significant because of the skill of the organisation and it
:08:30. > :08:32.makes the point that Scotland may be better off with its own currency
:08:33. > :08:38.rather than pursuing this ambition of a currency union with the UK that
:08:39. > :08:42.the UK is hostile to. On that issue we have an economics professor
:08:43. > :08:47.disputing the UK Treasury, David Clegg, the reason for refusing a
:08:48. > :08:50.currency union. This is Lesley Young from the University of Beijing
:08:51. > :08:53.saying that the totally position does not stand up to scrutiny. It
:08:54. > :08:59.sounds as though the positions of the main parties are pretty
:09:00. > :09:01.entrenched. Absolutely entrenched that I believe the totally have
:09:02. > :09:07.already said that no matter what this sub report says that there will
:09:08. > :09:12.not be a currency union in the event of the yes for. It is part of the
:09:13. > :09:15.problem that both sides are willing out experts that find their position
:09:16. > :09:18.in this once was financed by Sir Tom Hunter who has attempted to get
:09:19. > :09:25.useful information to the public domain, but you look at this is an
:09:26. > :09:27.eminent academic and a well respected economist but at the same
:09:28. > :09:33.time he is saying something that is exactly different to what the
:09:34. > :09:36.Blackrock report as saying. Who do you believe? Indeed had on that
:09:37. > :09:41.subject people are beginning to make up their minds as we get closer and
:09:42. > :09:44.closer to the referendum. Tom Gordon, a poll said a narrowing of
:09:45. > :09:49.the gap between yes and no is happening, it said that if you take
:09:50. > :09:55.out the don't knows you have 45% supporting yes and 55 supporting
:09:56. > :09:59.now. It is a very interesting Paul, another poll that shows the
:10:00. > :10:02.direction of travel for the Yes campaign, the polls are narrowing.
:10:03. > :10:09.There seems to be no doubt about that. We talk about wavy lines in
:10:10. > :10:12.the polls, that there is an ebb and flow of polling. But I don't think
:10:13. > :10:16.they can stick by this position any more. It is very clear that support
:10:17. > :10:23.for the union is eroding support for independence is gathering. Very
:10:24. > :10:26.interesting as well, this poll shows that people are becoming less
:10:27. > :10:32.sceptical about the impact of independence on the economy. Only 5%
:10:33. > :10:37.of people think it will be bad for the economy rather than good for the
:10:38. > :10:43.economy. That gap of pessimistic eggs of the mist was 17 points just
:10:44. > :10:47.six months ago. Now it is almost neck and neck. Very significant. We
:10:48. > :10:51.had Henry McLeish and seeing that the no campaign is too negative,
:10:52. > :10:57.good these poll results be a reflection that the public agrees? I
:10:58. > :11:00.think there should be deep concern in the Better Together campaign that
:11:01. > :11:04.this is the case, their strategy is to undermine the economic arguments
:11:05. > :11:08.and they have unloaded a lot of weapons to that cause the last
:11:09. > :11:11.couple of months. All of the businesses that have expressed
:11:12. > :11:14.uncertainties, the Chancellor 's announcement that we have already
:11:15. > :11:19.discussed at what they don't seem to have worked because the polls are
:11:20. > :11:21.moving in the opposite direction. Tom is absolutely right, there can
:11:22. > :11:25.be no doubt that things have tightened. It is not only does poll
:11:26. > :11:30.this morning that has shown that the raft of polls that have shown things
:11:31. > :11:33.closing down. Everyone is the view that the economy will be the
:11:34. > :11:37.decisive factor here and people becoming more confident about the
:11:38. > :11:42.economics of an independent Scotland then those in the no camp should be
:11:43. > :11:46.very concerned. A couple of items in the week ahead, tomorrow Tom Gordon
:11:47. > :11:55.B have Bob Crow's funeral, Tony Benn 's funeral later in the week, the
:11:56. > :12:00.left have lost two big figures. It has indeed, we will not see their
:12:01. > :12:05.like again. There will be a lot more cross-party respect shown for Tony
:12:06. > :12:09.Benn 's funeral on Thursday, Bob Crow was a very much more divisive
:12:10. > :12:15.figure but Ben was regarded as an outstanding parliamentarian by all
:12:16. > :12:19.parties and he has been given the honour of an overnight stay at the
:12:20. > :12:22.except at Westminster, just before the funeral and that was last
:12:23. > :12:27.accorded to Margaret Thatcher as a sign of respect across all parties.
:12:28. > :12:32.On Wednesday we have the first of two debates between Nick Clegg and
:12:33. > :12:35.Nigel Farage. This is a radio debate ahead of their television clash. Is
:12:36. > :12:41.this Nick Clegg fighting for his political life? Yes, I think the
:12:42. > :12:48.Liberal Democrats are in deep trouble, and Nick Clegg is aware of
:12:49. > :12:52.that. It is a desperate, a great sign of desperation that he agreed
:12:53. > :12:57.to this debate with Nigel Farage. The Deputy Prime Minister debating
:12:58. > :13:02.with a man who has no representation in Westminster, the volumes about
:13:03. > :13:06.where he think the political climate is at the minute. It will also be
:13:07. > :13:12.interesting to see how that plays. Sorry to adopt. I wanted to ask Tom
:13:13. > :13:15.Gordon what would a loss of the only Scottish Lib Dem MEP at the European
:13:16. > :13:22.election mean to the Lib Dems in Scotland? We now find out. The
:13:23. > :13:29.general opinion is that your client is toast. It is all about who gets
:13:30. > :13:36.his seat, the SNP UKIP or an extraordinary day but draw the line
:13:37. > :13:40.is probably gone. Thank you both for joining is as tomorrow night Isabel
:13:41. > :13:43.Fraser, one better and myself will be grilling Jim Sellers and George
:13:44. > :13:49.Galloway about their views on independence. That is a new Skype on
:13:50. > :13:52.special at 10:30pm tomorrow. That is all from Sunday politics. Back at
:13:53. > :13:56.the same thing next week. Goodbye.