:00:33. > :00:36.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:37. > :00:39.Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies.
:00:40. > :00:42.So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories.
:00:43. > :00:46.We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got
:00:47. > :00:53.Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes
:00:54. > :00:58.Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns.
:00:59. > :01:04.Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader.
:01:05. > :01:07.And what of this leader, he's apparently toxic on the doorstep.
:01:08. > :01:10.The polls say Nick Clegg's more unpopular than Gordon Brown
:01:11. > :01:16.We'll be asking a former Lib Dem leader, what is to be done?
:01:17. > :01:18.Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.
:01:19. > :01:22.The latest analysis of setup costs for an independent state, we'll talk
:01:23. > :01:37.to Professor Dunleavy who says March 2016 may be unrealistic.
:01:38. > :01:39.promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress?
:01:40. > :01:46.Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters
:01:47. > :01:54.First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now
:01:55. > :01:56.largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means
:01:57. > :02:03.they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases.
:02:04. > :02:05.Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating
:02:06. > :02:08.their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken.
:02:09. > :02:10.They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's
:02:11. > :02:14.biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital.
:02:15. > :02:16.And there are reports they might now have taken the power
:02:17. > :02:23.Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS,
:02:24. > :02:26.the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and
:02:27. > :02:32.far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it.
:02:33. > :02:34.Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands
:02:35. > :02:52.No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good
:02:53. > :02:56.options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much
:02:57. > :03:01.support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over
:03:02. > :03:04.about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate
:03:05. > :03:10.their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be
:03:11. > :03:16.seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their
:03:17. > :03:25.support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni
:03:26. > :03:28.and Shia Muslim populations don't live in clearly bordered areas, but
:03:29. > :03:32.in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the
:03:33. > :03:37.break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and
:03:38. > :03:44.long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take
:03:45. > :03:50.Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since
:03:51. > :03:54.Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what
:03:55. > :04:00.is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything
:04:01. > :04:06.does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between
:04:07. > :04:11.Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First
:04:12. > :04:14.World War. That is gone as well. An astonishingly humbling situation the
:04:15. > :04:23.West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge --
:04:24. > :04:26.chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the
:04:27. > :04:32.autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't
:04:33. > :04:36.do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement.
:04:37. > :04:39.And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is
:04:40. > :04:44.some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back
:04:45. > :04:49.from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week
:04:50. > :04:52.that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in
:04:53. > :04:57.Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that
:04:58. > :05:02.have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty
:05:03. > :05:13.sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the
:05:14. > :05:17.White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in
:05:18. > :05:21.technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and
:05:22. > :05:25.what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to
:05:26. > :05:30.encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the
:05:31. > :05:35.government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in
:05:36. > :05:41.Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so
:05:42. > :05:44.this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets
:05:45. > :05:48.fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big
:05:49. > :05:52.piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing
:05:53. > :05:57.anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what
:05:58. > :06:02.most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have
:06:03. > :06:06.George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they
:06:07. > :06:09.cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George
:06:10. > :06:14.Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach
:06:15. > :06:17.for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground.
:06:18. > :06:20.All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion
:06:21. > :06:25.The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary
:06:26. > :06:28.and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan.
:06:29. > :06:32.In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State
:06:33. > :06:39.for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting
:06:40. > :06:42.people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill.
:06:43. > :06:44.her first interview in the job she threatened "We would
:06:45. > :06:48.But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition
:06:49. > :06:52.has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare.
:06:53. > :06:55.Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap -
:06:56. > :07:01.They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal
:07:02. > :07:04.Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and
:07:05. > :07:12.And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts.
:07:13. > :07:15.This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training
:07:16. > :07:20.That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost
:07:21. > :07:26.And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will
:07:27. > :07:34.Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion.
:07:35. > :07:36.And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon
:07:37. > :07:43.have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means.
:07:44. > :07:56.Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories?
:07:57. > :08:00.We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this
:08:01. > :08:03.government, the bill will be ?13 million more than the government set
:08:04. > :08:08.out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to
:08:09. > :08:12.control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next
:08:13. > :08:16.Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first
:08:17. > :08:20.parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but
:08:21. > :08:26.that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in
:08:27. > :08:31.line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where
:08:32. > :08:36.flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise? We
:08:37. > :08:40.have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they
:08:41. > :08:43.haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion
:08:44. > :08:49.more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because
:08:50. > :08:52.the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people
:08:53. > :08:56.are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are
:08:57. > :09:02.relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero
:09:03. > :09:06.hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get
:09:07. > :09:12.in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall.
:09:13. > :09:17.The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And
:09:18. > :09:25.you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they
:09:26. > :09:28.had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the
:09:29. > :09:33.parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out
:09:34. > :09:36.because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party
:09:37. > :09:40.does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the
:09:41. > :09:46.welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare
:09:47. > :09:49.stuff? We are the party of work, not welfare. The Labour Party was set up
:09:50. > :09:51.in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and
:09:52. > :09:55.we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make
:09:56. > :10:00.no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party,
:10:01. > :10:05.we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document
:10:06. > :10:08.admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is
:10:09. > :10:13.your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most
:10:14. > :10:16.recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on
:10:17. > :10:21.Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and
:10:22. > :10:25.chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith.
:10:26. > :10:31.Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on
:10:32. > :10:34.welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we
:10:35. > :10:39.will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week,
:10:40. > :10:43.that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to
:10:44. > :10:46.just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to
:10:47. > :10:49.receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young
:10:50. > :10:59.people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. -- we
:11:00. > :11:04.will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had
:11:05. > :11:08.a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform,
:11:09. > :11:15.you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout
:11:16. > :11:19.was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the
:11:20. > :11:24.lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap,
:11:25. > :11:29.welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted
:11:30. > :11:31.against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted
:11:32. > :11:35.with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social
:11:36. > :11:43.Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we
:11:44. > :11:49.walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the
:11:50. > :11:54.cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every
:11:55. > :11:58.single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap, it
:11:59. > :12:01.was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up
:12:02. > :12:05.for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which
:12:06. > :12:12.welfare reform did you vote for? We voted for the cap. Other than that?
:12:13. > :12:17.We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third
:12:18. > :12:22.reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at
:12:23. > :12:27.universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of
:12:28. > :12:31.spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what
:12:32. > :12:34.you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the
:12:35. > :12:40.government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people
:12:41. > :12:43.who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For
:12:44. > :12:45.example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter
:12:46. > :12:49.fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up.
:12:50. > :12:53.You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up
:12:54. > :12:59.for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on
:13:00. > :13:05.youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap
:13:06. > :13:12.would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million?
:13:13. > :13:17.Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the
:13:18. > :13:20.real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth
:13:21. > :13:24.allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of
:13:25. > :13:27.these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits
:13:28. > :13:33.without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost
:13:34. > :13:37.the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned
:13:38. > :13:41.universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship
:13:42. > :13:47.reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits
:13:48. > :13:50.into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm
:13:51. > :13:56.support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now
:13:57. > :14:00.you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue
:14:01. > :14:03.committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the
:14:04. > :14:08.National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after
:14:09. > :14:13.report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not
:14:14. > :14:17.going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up
:14:18. > :14:19.the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit
:14:20. > :14:24.and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will
:14:25. > :14:30.keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We
:14:31. > :14:36.are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most
:14:37. > :14:41.recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said
:14:42. > :14:46.it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship
:14:47. > :14:51.government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver,
:14:52. > :14:55.and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we
:14:56. > :15:02.win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and
:15:03. > :15:08.calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will
:15:09. > :15:11.have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the
:15:12. > :15:17.National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't
:15:18. > :15:20.need to do this until the next general election, they could do it
:15:21. > :15:24.today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this
:15:25. > :15:30.incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view
:15:31. > :15:33.now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is
:15:34. > :15:39.being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why? We
:15:40. > :15:42.asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the
:15:43. > :15:45.meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were
:15:46. > :15:50.offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment
:15:51. > :15:52.to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and
:15:53. > :15:57.said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to
:15:58. > :16:02.the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she
:16:03. > :16:05.did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how
:16:06. > :16:19.it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine.
:16:20. > :16:26.Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people
:16:27. > :16:32.trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three
:16:33. > :16:37.meetings. That is another issue, I was asking about the job centre. It
:16:38. > :16:43.is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This
:16:44. > :16:47.week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training
:16:48. > :16:56.will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in
:16:57. > :17:01.work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming
:17:02. > :17:07.benefits at the moment, but 850,000 young people who are not in work at
:17:08. > :17:15.the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are
:17:16. > :17:22.actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education.
:17:23. > :17:29.Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is
:17:30. > :17:35.applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than
:17:36. > :17:42.signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people...
:17:43. > :17:46.Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's
:17:47. > :17:59.allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to
:18:00. > :18:05.respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or
:18:06. > :18:15.education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long
:18:16. > :18:23.turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue
:18:24. > :18:29.about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got
:18:30. > :18:33.skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a
:18:34. > :18:40.job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at
:18:41. > :18:44.the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure
:18:45. > :18:50.all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy
:18:51. > :18:54.is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree
:18:55. > :19:00.to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an
:19:01. > :19:08.AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a
:19:09. > :19:13.nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to
:19:14. > :19:18.train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't
:19:19. > :19:23.have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go
:19:24. > :19:28.back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get
:19:29. > :19:33.up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These
:19:34. > :19:37.people have been failed by your education system. These people are,
:19:38. > :19:42.for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative
:19:43. > :19:47.government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a
:19:48. > :19:53.Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs
:19:54. > :19:59.whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11
:20:00. > :20:02.years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year
:20:03. > :20:06.everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are
:20:07. > :20:10.one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the
:20:11. > :20:18.reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that
:20:19. > :20:21.should not the left languishing. I went to college in Hackney if you
:20:22. > :20:27.should not the left languishing. I you are -- a few weeks ago and there
:20:28. > :20:31.was a dyslexic boy studying painting and decorating. In school they
:20:32. > :20:37.decided he was a troublemaker and that he didn't want to learn. He
:20:38. > :20:41.went back to college because he wanted to get the skills. He said
:20:42. > :20:46.that it wasn't until he went back to college that he could pick up a
:20:47. > :20:52.newspaper and read it, it made a huge difference but too many people
:20:53. > :20:56.are let down by the system. I am wondering how the training will make
:20:57. > :21:01.up for an education system that failed them but let's move on to
:21:02. > :21:07.your leader. Look at this graph of Ed Miliband's popularity. This is
:21:08. > :21:11.the net satisfaction with him, it is dreadful. The trend continues to
:21:12. > :21:17.climb since he became leader of the Labour Party, why? What you have
:21:18. > :21:21.seen is another 2300 Labour councillors since Ed Miliband became
:21:22. > :21:29.the leader of the Labour Party. You saw in the elections a month ago
:21:30. > :21:34.that... Why is the satisfaction rate falling? We can look at polls or
:21:35. > :21:39.actual election results and the fact that we have got another 2000 Labour
:21:40. > :21:44.councillors, more people voting Labour, the opinion polls today show
:21:45. > :21:48.that if there was a general election today we would have a majority of
:21:49. > :21:56.more than 40, he must be doing something right. Why do almost 50%
:21:57. > :22:03.of voters want to replace him as leader? Why do 50% and more think
:22:04. > :22:09.that he is not up to the job? The more people see Ed Miliband, the
:22:10. > :22:14.less impressed they are. The British people seem to like him less. The
:22:15. > :22:19.election strategy I suggest that follows from that is that you should
:22:20. > :22:24.keep Ed Miliband under wraps until the election. Let's look at actually
:22:25. > :22:29.what happens when people get a chance to vote, when they get that
:22:30. > :22:36.opportunity we have seen more Labour councillors, more Labour members of
:22:37. > :22:42.the European Parliament... Oppositions always get more. The
:22:43. > :22:47.opinion polls today, one of them shows Labour four points ahead. You
:22:48. > :22:51.have not done that well in local government elections or European
:22:52. > :22:57.elections. Why don't people like him? I think we have done incredibly
:22:58. > :23:02.well in elections. People must like a lot of the things Labour and Ed
:23:03. > :23:06.Miliband are doing because we are winning back support across the
:23:07. > :23:11.country. We won local councils in places like Hammersmith and Fulham,
:23:12. > :23:17.Crawley, Hastings, key places that Labour need to win back at the
:23:18. > :23:22.general election next year. Even you have said traditional Labour
:23:23. > :23:27.supporters are abandoning the party. That is what Ed Miliband has said as
:23:28. > :23:33.well. We have got this real concern about what has happened. If you look
:23:34. > :23:38.at the elections in May, 60% of people didn't even bother going to
:23:39. > :23:42.vote. That is a profound issue not just for Labour. You said
:23:43. > :23:47.traditional voters who perhaps at times we took for granted are now
:23:48. > :23:53.being offered an alternative. Why did you take them for granted? This
:23:54. > :23:59.is what Ed Miliband said. I am not saying anything Ed Miliband himself
:24:00. > :24:05.has not said. When he ran for the leadership he said that we took too
:24:06. > :24:08.many people for granted and we needed to give people positive
:24:09. > :24:12.reasons to vote Labour, he has been doing that. He has been there for
:24:13. > :24:16.four years and you are saying you still take them for granted. Why? I
:24:17. > :24:21.am saying that for too long we have taken them for granted. We are on
:24:22. > :24:31.track to win the general election next year and that will defy all the
:24:32. > :24:33.odds. You are going to win... Ed Miliband will win next year and make
:24:34. > :24:41.a great Prime Minister. Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the
:24:42. > :24:45.risk of intruding into private grief. The party is still smarting
:24:46. > :24:48.from dire results in the European and Local Elections. The only poll
:24:49. > :24:52.Nick Clegg has won in recent times is to be voted the most unpopular
:24:53. > :24:57.leader of a party in modern British history. No surprise there have been
:24:58. > :24:58.calls for him to go, though that still looks unlikely. Here's
:24:59. > :25:01.Eleanor. Liberal Democrats celebrating,
:25:02. > :25:07.something we haven't seen for a while. This victory back in 1998 led
:25:08. > :25:12.to a decade of power for the Lib Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast
:25:13. > :25:18.to the city's political landscape today. At its height the party had
:25:19. > :25:22.69 local councillors, now down to just three. The scale of the
:25:23. > :25:29.challenge facing Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is growing. The party is
:25:30. > :25:32.rock bottom in the polls, consistently in single figures. It
:25:33. > :25:37.was wiped out in the European elections losing all but one of its
:25:38. > :25:44.12 MEPs and in the local elections it lost 42% of the seats that it was
:25:45. > :25:50.defending. But on Merseyside, Nick Clegg was putting on a brave face.
:25:51. > :25:55.We did badly in Liverpool, Manchester and London in particular,
:25:56. > :26:01.we did well in other places. But you are right, we did badly in some of
:26:02. > :26:05.those big cities and I have initiated a review, quite
:26:06. > :26:11.naturally, to understand what went wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems
:26:12. > :26:15.across the country get on with some serious soul-searching, there is an
:26:16. > :26:20.admission that his is the leader of the party who is failing to hit the
:26:21. > :26:25.right notes. Knocking on doors in Liverpool, I have to tell you that
:26:26. > :26:31.Nick Clegg is not a popular person. Some might use the word toxic and I
:26:32. > :26:34.find this very difficult because I know Nick very well and I see a
:26:35. > :26:40.principal person who passionately believes in what he is doing and he
:26:41. > :26:51.is a nice guy. As a result of his popularity, what has happened to the
:26:52. > :26:54.core vote? In parts of the country, we are down to just three
:26:55. > :26:59.councillors like Liverpool for example. You also lose the
:27:00. > :27:03.deliverers and fundraisers and the organisers and the members of course
:27:04. > :27:08.so all of that will have to be rebuilt. As they start fermenting
:27:09. > :27:13.process, local parties across the country and here in Liverpool have
:27:14. > :27:19.been voting on whether there should be a leadership contest. We had two
:27:20. > :27:24.choices to flush out and have a go at Nick Clegg or to positively
:27:25. > :27:29.decide we would sharpen up the campaign and get back on the
:27:30. > :27:34.streets, and by four to one ratio we decided to get back on the streets.
:27:35. > :27:40.We are bruised and battered but we are still here, the orange flag is
:27:41. > :27:45.still flying and one day it will fly over this building again, Liverpool
:27:46. > :27:50.town hall. But do people want the Lib Dems back in charge in this
:27:51. > :27:54.city? I certainly wouldn't vote for them. Their performance in
:27:55. > :27:59.Government and the way they have left their promises down, I could
:28:00. > :28:05.not vote for them again. I voted Lib Dem in the last election because of
:28:06. > :28:11.the university tuition fees and I would never vote for them again
:28:12. > :28:14.because they broke their promise. The Lib Dems are awful, broken
:28:15. > :28:18.promises and what have you. I wouldn't vote for them. This is the
:28:19. > :28:23.declaration of the results for the Northwest... Last month, as other
:28:24. > :28:28.party celebrated in the north-west, the Lib Dems here lost their only
:28:29. > :28:33.MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is concern the party doesn't know how
:28:34. > :28:39.to turn its fortunes around. We don't have an answer to that, if we
:28:40. > :28:47.did we would be grasping it with both hands. We will do our best to
:28:48. > :28:52.hold onto the places where we still have seats but as for the rest of
:28:53. > :28:56.the country where we have been hollowed out, we don't know how to
:28:57. > :29:00.start again until the next general election is out of the way. After
:29:01. > :29:03.their disastrous performance in the European elections, pressure is
:29:04. > :29:14.growing for the party to shift its stance. I think there has to be a
:29:15. > :29:21.lancing of the wound, there should in a referendum and the Liberal
:29:22. > :29:26.Democrats should be calling it. The rest of Europe once this because
:29:27. > :29:31.they are fed up with Britain being unable to make up its mind. The Lib
:29:32. > :29:36.Dems are now suffering the effects of being in Government. The party's
:29:37. > :29:43.problem, choosing the right course to regain political credibility.
:29:44. > :29:48.We can now speak to form a Lib Dems leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back
:29:49. > :29:54.to the Sunday Politics. Even your own activists say that Nick Clegg is
:29:55. > :29:58.toxic. How will that change between now and the election? When you have
:29:59. > :30:04.had disappointing results, but you have to do is to rebuild. You pick
:30:05. > :30:08.yourself up and start all over again, and the reason why the
:30:09. > :30:13.Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats in the House of Commons now is
:30:14. > :30:15.because we picked ourselves up, we took every opportunity and we have
:30:16. > :30:27.rebuilt from the bottom up. least popular leader in modern
:30:28. > :30:32.history and more unpopular than your mate Gordon Brown. You are running
:30:33. > :30:36.out of time. No one believes that being the leader of a modern
:30:37. > :30:40.political party in the UK is an easy job. Both Ed Miliband and David
:30:41. > :30:44.Cameron must have had cause to think, over breakfast this morning,
:30:45. > :30:47.when they saw the headlines in some of the Sunday papers. Of course it
:30:48. > :30:52.is a difficult job but it was pointed out a moment or two ago that
:30:53. > :30:56.Nick Clegg is a man of principle and enormous resilience if you consider
:30:57. > :30:59.what he had to put up with, and in my view, he is quite clearly the
:31:00. > :31:02.person best qualified to lead the party between now and the general
:31:03. > :31:08.election and through the election campaign, and beyond. So why don't
:31:09. > :31:12.people like him? We have had to take some pretty difficult decisions,
:31:13. > :31:19.and, of course, people didn't expect that. If you look back to the rather
:31:20. > :31:22.heady days of the rose garden behind ten Downing St, people thought it
:31:23. > :31:26.was all going to be sweetness and light, but the fact is, we didn't
:31:27. > :31:30.know then what we know now, about the extent of the economic crisis we
:31:31. > :31:34.win, and a lot of difficult decisions have had to be taken in
:31:35. > :31:39.order to restore economic stability. Look around you. You will see we are
:31:40. > :31:43.not there yet but we are a long way better off than in 2010. You are not
:31:44. > :31:51.getting the credit for it, the Tories are. We will be a little more
:31:52. > :31:55.assertive about taking the credit. For example, the fact that 23
:31:56. > :31:59.million people have had a tax cut of ?800 per year and we have taken 2
:32:00. > :32:02.million people out of paying tax altogether. Ming Campbell, your
:32:03. > :32:09.people say that on every programme like this. Because it is true. That
:32:10. > :32:13.might be the case, but you are at seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody
:32:14. > :32:21.is listening, or they don't believe it. Once
:32:22. > :32:22.is listening, or they don't believe doubt that what we have achieved
:32:23. > :32:26.will be much more easily recognised, and there is no doubt,
:32:27. > :32:30.for example, in some of the recent polls, like the Ashcroft Pole,
:32:31. > :32:38.something like 30% of those polled said that as a result at the next
:32:39. > :32:40.something like 30% of those polled general election, they would prepare
:32:41. > :32:45.their to be a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats. So there is
:32:46. > :32:49.no question that the whole notion of coalition is still very much a live
:32:50. > :32:53.one, and one which we have made work in the public interest. The problem
:32:54. > :32:57.is people don't think that. People see you trying to have your cake and
:32:58. > :33:00.eat it. On the one hand you want to get your share of the credit for the
:33:01. > :33:04.turnaround in the economy, on the other hand you can't stop yourself
:33:05. > :33:08.from distancing yourself from the Tories and things that you did not
:33:09. > :33:14.like happening. You are trying to face both ways at once. If you
:33:15. > :33:27.remember our fellow Scotsman famously said you cannot ride both
:33:28. > :33:27.remember our fellow Scotsman to the terms -- terms of the
:33:28. > :33:29.remember our fellow Scotsman coalition agreement, which is what
:33:30. > :33:33.we signed up to in 2010. In addition, in furtherance of that
:33:34. > :33:37.agreement, we have created things like the pupil premium and the
:33:38. > :33:40.others I mentioned and you were rather dismissive. I'm not
:33:41. > :33:44.dismissive, I'm just saying they don't make a difference to what
:33:45. > :33:50.people think of you. We will do everything in our power to change
:33:51. > :33:55.that between now and May 2015. The interesting thing is, going back to
:33:56. > :34:01.the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated clearly that in constituencies where
:34:02. > :34:04.we have MPs and we are well dug in, we are doing everything that the
:34:05. > :34:09.public expects of us, and we are doing very well indeed. You aren't
:34:10. > :34:15.sure fellow Lib Dems have been saying this for you -- you and your
:34:16. > :34:18.fellow Liberal Dems have been saying this for a year or 18 months, and
:34:19. > :34:22.since then you have lost all of your MEPs apart from one, you lost your
:34:23. > :34:28.deposit in a by-election, you lost 310 councillor, including everyone
:34:29. > :34:33.in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg leading you into the next general
:34:34. > :34:39.election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade. I
:34:40. > :34:43.doubt that very much. The implication behind that lit you
:34:44. > :34:48.rehearsed is that we should pack our tents in the night and steal away.
:34:49. > :34:51.-- that litany. And if you heard in that piece that preceded the
:34:52. > :34:55.discussion, people were saying, look we have to start from the bottom and
:34:56. > :35:09.have to rebuild. That is exactly what we will do. Nine months is a
:35:10. > :35:15.period of gestation. As you well know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so
:35:16. > :35:18.easily as that. I'm not here to say we had a wonderful result or
:35:19. > :35:23.anything like it, but what I do say is that the party is determined to
:35:24. > :35:29.turn it round, and that Nick Clegg is the person best qualified to do
:35:30. > :35:30.it. Should your party adopt a referendum about in or out on
:35:31. > :36:08.Europe? No, we should stuck to the task, not is what is
:36:09. > :36:10.going to happen in May 2015. Thank you for joining us. Now, let's say
:36:11. > :36:17.goodbye to the viewers in Scotland. Good morning and welcome to
:36:18. > :36:19.Sunday Politics Scotland. The cost of independence,
:36:20. > :36:25.the latest analysis puts the Ed Miliband has unveiled his
:36:26. > :36:31.proposals for benefit reform, we'll ask the Shadow Scottish Secretary
:36:32. > :36:36.how that will play on the doorsteps. 700 years on next weekend,
:36:37. > :36:39.Robert the Bruce will ride again How successful will this event be
:36:40. > :36:45.as Armed Forces Day takes place A row broke out at Holyrood this
:36:46. > :36:55.week about whether the Scottish Government were working on set up
:36:56. > :36:58.costs in the event of a yes vote. Last month it insisted that civil
:36:59. > :37:03.servants had not even begun to work on the calculations
:37:04. > :37:05.because much would depend But on Friday it emerged that the
:37:06. > :37:09.government had advertised a number of business critical posts and
:37:10. > :37:17.were fast tracking applications. The Scottish Government claims it's
:37:18. > :37:18.ensuring The Liberal Democrat leader Willie
:37:19. > :37:23.Rennie and Conservative leader Ruth Davidson tabled questions to
:37:24. > :37:28.the First Minister on the subject last Thursday and asked why those
:37:29. > :37:43.figures wouldn't be available to the We know from the finance secretary
:37:44. > :37:45.in 2012 that he ordered work to build a competency overview of the
:37:46. > :37:51.institutions, gusts and staff numbers required in the event of
:37:52. > :37:54.independence. Last year, the deputy first minister confirmed that work
:37:55. > :37:59.was underway, telling a Commons committee, and I quote, we are doing
:38:00. > :38:03.substantial work on this just now. Suffice to say, it covers not just
:38:04. > :38:08.running costs but the issues around setup. But then, last month, the
:38:09. > :38:15.first Minister's official spokesman said, there was no overview, no
:38:16. > :38:20.document, just, and I quote again, e-mail and jottings. And then this
:38:21. > :38:24.morning, a week after the chief economic adviser said he had done no
:38:25. > :38:31.work, we read reports that the government is rushing out figures to
:38:32. > :38:34.paper over the cracks. They say the work is substantial, then they say
:38:35. > :38:38.it is not. They say it will be published before the referendum but
:38:39. > :38:40.then they say they will not. The people of Scotland have to know,
:38:41. > :38:42.what is going on? The start-up costs of setting up
:38:43. > :38:45.independent institutions have been In May the Treasury claimed they
:38:46. > :38:50.would amount to ?2.7 billion. It cited a study carried out
:38:51. > :38:53.by Professor Patrick Dunleavy He, however, said the figure badly
:38:54. > :39:00.misrepresented his research and that any contribution to the public
:39:01. > :39:02.debate needed to be accurate. In turn, the Scottish government
:39:03. > :39:07.quoted a figure of ?250 million, Today Professor Dunleavy has
:39:08. > :39:13.published a new analysis, It suggests that there would be
:39:14. > :39:18.immediate setup costs of up to ?200 million to create new
:39:19. > :39:22.administrative structures that Several hundred million pounds would
:39:23. > :39:31.need to be spent on new IT systems Costs would increase
:39:32. > :39:37.if negotiations were hostile. And it notes that agreeing
:39:38. > :39:41.the transition to independence Earlier this morning I spoke to
:39:42. > :39:49.the professor and I began by asking him what the total cost of
:39:50. > :40:01.setting up a new country might be. I think we need to keep clear what
:40:02. > :40:08.is a setup cost, and what is some other kind of cost. For example, the
:40:09. > :40:15.tax and benefit system, those contracts, they are continuously
:40:16. > :40:20.coming up for renewal in the UK. So over the next several years, a large
:40:21. > :40:24.portion of all of the UK's major IT contracts will have to be
:40:25. > :40:30.re-elected, and that will cost a lot of money. I don't think we can count
:40:31. > :40:35.Scotland setting up its own tax and benefit system as being just the
:40:36. > :40:39.setup costs, it is part of the investment cost. In that
:40:40. > :40:44.transitional period, would it be possible for an independent Scotland
:40:45. > :40:48.to have a different taxation, for example, or a different benefit
:40:49. > :40:52.system from the rest of the UK? Until the new systems are set up
:40:53. > :40:59.which you seem to be suggesting would be about 2020, 2021? Benefits,
:41:00. > :41:04.according to the Scottish government timetable, would be domesticated in
:41:05. > :41:09.2018, and personal income tax in 2020, and other bits of taxation
:41:10. > :41:12.would take longer. What about something like corporation tax? It
:41:13. > :41:17.is one of their flagship policies, they want to cut that. When could
:41:18. > :41:21.that be done realistically? You have got to choose between making wasn't
:41:22. > :41:26.-- policy choices and changing whole systems. It is possible, it might be
:41:27. > :41:30.difficult and it could be systems. It is possible, it might be
:41:31. > :41:35.difficult and it could expensive to change policy. So to say, we will
:41:36. > :41:43.keep the same corporate tax policy, but we will levy a different level
:41:44. > :41:47.on Scotland. But when you get to benefits, it is quite complicated to
:41:48. > :41:52.have policy variation between the UK and Scotland. The Scottish
:41:53. > :41:56.government has said a couple of things they would not proceed with.
:41:57. > :42:04.But essentially, that is why you need to domesticated your IT,
:42:05. > :42:09.because modern policy relies on IT systems. The existing UK systems are
:42:10. > :42:14.very big, complex legacy systems, very costly to operate. You say
:42:15. > :42:18.there are grounds for ordering, and I am quoting you, the swift
:42:19. > :42:23.transition in busy from a yes vote to an independent Scotland by March
:42:24. > :42:31.2016 is unrealistic or unlikely to happen. Why you say that? That is a
:42:32. > :42:37.footnote! You know, I think when anybody puts forward a timetable,
:42:38. > :42:46.people query the timetable. To go from September this year to March
:42:47. > :42:52.2016 would be quite minding. So -- quite demanding. So you think it
:42:53. > :42:55.would have to be put back a bit? I think Scotland would have to
:42:56. > :43:01.negotiate independence with the rest of the UK. In the process of that,
:43:02. > :43:09.some issues that come up, but it might well be that if Scotland has
:43:10. > :43:15.voted yes, then everybody accepts that this is a top political
:43:16. > :43:20.priority and this timetable will stick after all. We are saying,
:43:21. > :43:27.there is an issue around it as there is about almost every aspect of the
:43:28. > :43:31.transition. You had a meeting with the Scottish government this week,
:43:32. > :43:34.are you officially involved in them trying to do work with setup costs?
:43:35. > :43:43.What is your understanding what their plans are of this issue? I had
:43:44. > :43:46.a whole set of meetings with people in Scotland including and up to the
:43:47. > :43:52.first minister not this week but last week. What is your involvement
:43:53. > :43:58.from now? I don't have any involvement at this point with the
:43:59. > :43:59.Scottish government. Is your understanding the Scottish
:44:00. > :44:07.government itself is now doing work on this? I think that there has been
:44:08. > :44:12.a lot of, kind of, chasing bogeyman here. The idea that the Scottish
:44:13. > :44:17.government has a secret dossier or a set of information that they are
:44:18. > :44:24.hiding has been suggested in the Scottish Parliament, and hinted at
:44:25. > :44:28.by Danny Alexander. This is ironic really, because the person who knows
:44:29. > :44:33.a lot more about what the transition costs for Scotland would be if David
:44:34. > :44:38.Cameron. The big uncertainty is what the UK would do in negotiation.
:44:39. > :44:43.Listening to that was the shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran
:44:44. > :44:48.who joins me now. Whatever we make of the Professor's latest estimates,
:44:49. > :44:53.the basic point here is that the UK government document that said the
:44:54. > :44:58.setup cost of independent Scotland would be ?2.7 billion was just
:44:59. > :45:00.nonsense. You know, I think it is interesting, and the viewers
:45:01. > :45:04.watching this and people throughout Scotland will be questioning now why
:45:05. > :45:07.they are having to look at the Sunday Post this morning to find out
:45:08. > :45:11.the latest stage of where we have got to this. I will come onto what
:45:12. > :45:17.you think the Scottish government will do in the moment. But the basic
:45:18. > :45:24.point is, in outing to the accepted that the figures put out by the
:45:25. > :45:31.British come and work rubbish. -- government were rubbish. Today, we
:45:32. > :45:35.have got the 200 million costs, but they have gone on to say that there
:45:36. > :45:45.are substantial other costs. He said ?700 million. He did not dismiss the
:45:46. > :45:53.?900 million which is setting up the IT systems. That does not get you to
:45:54. > :45:58.?2.7 billion. But the ?900 million for the tax and benefit systems
:45:59. > :46:01.alone, you are in that territory. We are looking at millions of pounds in
:46:02. > :46:08.terms of setting up an independent state and that is just tax and
:46:09. > :46:12.welfare. We know there are other issues, the Ford talks about
:46:13. > :46:19.convocations around EU and NATO and suchlike. It is not unreasonable for
:46:20. > :46:24.us to say, here we are 90 days away from it, the government have been
:46:25. > :46:29.planning, but we do not even know who the staff were working on it.
:46:30. > :46:34.What I do not quite understand is when the Conservative Liberal
:46:35. > :46:38.Democrat coalition puts out figures which are widely accepted now to be
:46:39. > :46:47.inaccurate, to put it mildly, which are said by Professor Dunleavy
:46:48. > :46:50.himself to mislead his -- misrepresent his research, why you
:46:51. > :46:54.want to defend these figures. I just rang to say what people are trying
:46:55. > :46:59.to say out there, what are the reasonable figures which will be
:47:00. > :47:04.involved in setting up an independent Scotland. What do people
:47:05. > :47:11.want to see the Scottish government doing, then? I think we need a
:47:12. > :47:14.degree of transparency, we have had John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon
:47:15. > :47:17.saying, we would get some sense, they have not fulfilled that. We
:47:18. > :47:22.have now got the first Minister saying we need to set up these civil
:47:23. > :47:27.service jobs looking at it. But another point... Your demand is
:47:28. > :47:32.what, they should publish them figures? Certainly let us know what
:47:33. > :47:36.is going on and who is involved. Professor Dunleavy also said you
:47:37. > :47:40.should never associate transition costs with assets, they should be
:47:41. > :47:45.divided from each other. That is often the stock answer we get from
:47:46. > :47:51.the first Minister, when we just get the general response. We need
:47:52. > :47:55.clarity about... You would expect and demand that the Scottish
:47:56. > :48:00.government publish some figures? Yes, what figures they have they
:48:01. > :48:04.should publish. They could -- they should take a step-by-step through
:48:05. > :48:12.the work they have done and be transparent and public about this.
:48:13. > :48:19.Including about spending. This week, Ed Miliband outlined his proposals
:48:20. > :48:26.for young people. We have been talking to some young people. I
:48:27. > :48:31.think it is difficult, he is busy trying to appeal to swing voters who
:48:32. > :48:35.might have voted Labour before, but he has got to make cuts somewhere.
:48:36. > :48:40.It could do well for him because older people tend to vote for. As a
:48:41. > :48:44.young person, I know people who are on jobseeker's allowance and I know
:48:45. > :48:48.can be difficult. It is a good idea, it will encourage people to go into
:48:49. > :48:51.training rather than sitting around not really doing anything. Young
:48:52. > :48:59.people should be encouraged to work or do training. I am not sure about
:49:00. > :49:04.whether it should be based upon how much money your parents have.
:49:05. > :49:11.Especially if you're looking to go into work, looking to support
:49:12. > :49:15.yourself more. I welcome the proposals around training. I think
:49:16. > :49:19.it is important government give support to young people when they
:49:20. > :49:24.are out of work to get into the work place. I do not like it means
:49:25. > :49:27.testing the benefit, you would not deliver those over 25 so I do not
:49:28. > :49:34.see why you would do it for those under. Once you are 16 and 18, you
:49:35. > :49:41.are a full system with full rights. When the IPPR year or so ago
:49:42. > :49:48.proposed a similar learning or dining scheme, Rachel Reid, your
:49:49. > :49:56.front bench, rejected it, she rejected it, saying, we should not
:49:57. > :50:04.be blaming young people for Tory failure. What has changed? The IPPR
:50:05. > :50:11.was much more wide ranging in its report, it related to young people
:50:12. > :50:16.up to 25. And yours applies only to 21? So if you talk about people from
:50:17. > :50:20.18 to 25, we are blaming young people for Tory failure, but when we
:50:21. > :50:28.talk about 18 to 21, we are not blaming? What the proposal that Ed
:50:29. > :50:37.Miliband and Rachel Reid is very -- has put
:50:38. > :50:46.We know young people have a difficulty with new Morrissey and
:50:47. > :50:52.literacy. But what you are saying is if you are in this particular group
:50:53. > :50:58.and you do not agree to go into further training or education you
:50:59. > :51:08.will not get any benefit. -- new Morrissey and literacy. You will get
:51:09. > :51:20.youth allowance if you go into training. And if you do not you will
:51:21. > :51:25.get nothing? We know what happened to people who do not go into
:51:26. > :51:32.training, they are condemned to a life on benefits without
:51:33. > :51:40.opportunity. Often young people who did not do well at school want a
:51:41. > :51:44.second chance. Encouraging people to go into education everyone would
:51:45. > :51:49.agree is a good thing but you are effectively saying to parents who
:51:50. > :51:53.have problem youngsters who refused to do this that they are going to
:51:54. > :51:58.have to finance those young people because the well-known longer be
:51:59. > :52:02.entitled under Labour to any benefits at all. I think you will
:52:03. > :52:09.find that goes against the stream of argument. Some of these young people
:52:10. > :52:16.who do want to go to college do not get the financial support to go to
:52:17. > :52:22.college. We know there is a problem. Young people who do want to go to
:52:23. > :52:26.college, the way the current benefits system works will not do
:52:27. > :52:32.that. The current system would rather have young people in training
:52:33. > :52:35.than on benefits. I think most parents would encourage their young
:52:36. > :52:43.people to go to college and get financial support. In a few minutes
:52:44. > :52:45.we'll be asking Cabinet secretary Fergus Ewing for his response. But
:52:46. > :52:49.first, Scotland's most famous battlefield will echo to the cries
:52:50. > :52:52.of war next weekend, and the shouts of burger stall holders and t-shirt
:52:53. > :52:56.sellers, as thousands attend Bannockburn Live. It's become a bit
:52:57. > :52:59.of a political football as MSPs speak about concerns over ticket
:53:00. > :53:03.sales and questions arise over the surprising decision to hold Armed
:53:04. > :53:09.Forces Day in a field next door on the same day. Others ask why so much
:53:10. > :53:12.is being spent on one event when other areas of ancestral tourism
:53:13. > :53:26.could do with funding. Here's Andrew Kerr. The stage is being set for
:53:27. > :53:31.what is being built as two spectacular days of medieval
:53:32. > :53:37.re-enactments. Music, food and fashion as organisers prepare to go
:53:38. > :53:44.into battle, they will be hoping for a day like today. Bannockburn
:53:45. > :53:49.secured the way for Scotland to go into independence. The politics of
:53:50. > :53:54.the battlefield have spilled into the present day. Over the past few
:53:55. > :54:01.months MSPs have been ailing concerns over what they saw as low
:54:02. > :54:03.ticket sales, poor marketing and a lack of accountability. The National
:54:04. > :54:10.Trust for Scotland handed over at the event to visit Scotland when
:54:11. > :54:16.they held -- heard through the media that Armed Forces Day would be held
:54:17. > :54:21.on the same day by Stirling Council. Progress has been made. With
:54:22. > :54:30.taxpayers money at stake the local MSP guaranteed success. Visit
:54:31. > :54:37.Scotland have a good solid experience in this area, I am sure
:54:38. > :54:42.it will be successful. Capacity was for 45,000 people to attend over
:54:43. > :54:49.three days. It is now a two-day event with a target of 15,000.
:54:50. > :54:57.10,000 tickets have been sold, two thirds full. ?392,000 of taxpayers
:54:58. > :55:01.money has been ploughed into it. Perhaps the concerns have been
:55:02. > :55:07.expressed because of the apparently unsuccessful gathering in 2009.
:55:08. > :55:15.Taxpayers had to fit the overall bill and some were not paid. We are
:55:16. > :55:19.confident the event itself will break even through ticket revenue
:55:20. > :55:26.and other commercial revenue streams. I do not think there is any
:55:27. > :55:29.worry at all for the taxpayer. All the suppliers are committed to being
:55:30. > :55:34.paid and I think at the end of the day it will be a great event and we
:55:35. > :55:43.will generate sufficient revenue to cover the costs. There is always a
:55:44. > :55:52.risk with any quick sector spend it but we have advanced ticket sales of
:55:53. > :55:59.between two thirds and three quarters. There is a whole surface
:56:00. > :56:04.of things to do at the festival from music to the arts, retail to food.
:56:05. > :56:11.It will showcase the best of Scottish produce, creativity and in
:56:12. > :56:19.a destination that tourists need to discover. With a large amount of
:56:20. > :56:25.public money going into one event there is also a call to spread the
:56:26. > :56:34.largess around to other related areas which could also benefit. It
:56:35. > :56:38.is interesting, it is an area of focus for the tourism industry but I
:56:39. > :56:43.also think it would be good if some smaller centres and museums could
:56:44. > :56:54.get some funding because they are a crucial part of the tourist speedy
:56:55. > :56:58.and is. -- tourist experience. Many Scots and English well next weekend
:56:59. > :57:03.stand on the battlefield where their ancestors fought but when the battle
:57:04. > :57:14.cries died down the could still be some skirmishes. I am joined now by
:57:15. > :57:18.the Cabinet Minister for energy, enterprise and tourism. How many
:57:19. > :57:27.tickets have you sold? Around 10,000. We are very confident we
:57:28. > :57:36.will reach the target of 15,000 for what will be a terrific feast of
:57:37. > :57:42.music, history and food on the 28th and 29th of September. That weekend
:57:43. > :57:48.we also have white vest and Armed Forces Day. It will be a great
:57:49. > :57:54.weekend for Stirling. 50,000 is the target for Bannockburn. I think they
:57:55. > :58:01.are expecting something like 50,000 to turn up for Armed Forces Day. The
:58:02. > :58:08.symbolism and iconography of that is not terrific for you as a supporter
:58:09. > :58:17.of the yes campaign? I am hoping people will have a great weekend
:58:18. > :58:20.out. Quite by giving 50,000 will turn out to support Armed Forces Day
:58:21. > :58:31.and only 15,000 to support Bannockburn? Your viewers can go to
:58:32. > :58:36.Bannockburn live .com for the details of what will be an
:58:37. > :58:44.absolutely tremendous event with singers, re-enactments of the
:58:45. > :58:47.battle... You are turning into a used car salesman in front of my
:58:48. > :58:55.eyes. How about cancelling the question. There will be a
:58:56. > :59:05.magnificent chance for children to hear Rory tellers. People can look
:59:06. > :59:09.up what is on. -- storytellers. To answer your question, of course we
:59:10. > :59:12.remember the Battle of Bannockburn which led to the growth of
:59:13. > :59:17.independence which gained freedom for Scotland and also we remember
:59:18. > :59:22.the sacrifice of the Armed Forces and the First World War who gave so
:59:23. > :59:28.much to preserve freedom. I think we should remember and preserve all of
:59:29. > :59:33.our history. You might be concerned with profits rising doom but I think
:59:34. > :59:40.we can make this weekend a great weekend for all abuzz, not
:59:41. > :59:45.necessarily for politics but for family fun. One of the main reasons
:59:46. > :59:51.they will be 50,000 that Armed Forces Day is because it is free.
:59:52. > :59:55.Why not make an burn free? It is only costing three quarters of ?1
:59:56. > :00:02.million, you could easily justify that as public spending, why not say
:00:03. > :00:08.now, just turn up, it is free and we will get everyone who has read
:00:09. > :00:12.already their money back? I think the way you asked the question is
:00:13. > :00:17.why you are doing your job and I am doing mine. We have planned an
:00:18. > :00:22.excellent weekend with tickets that are competitively priced. Dublin
:00:23. > :00:27.Council decided to seek and hold Armed Forces Day, we are
:00:28. > :00:31.contributing to that, it did not cost free. We are contributing
:00:32. > :00:35.?80,000 and we have worked closely with them to make sure extra train
:00:36. > :00:46.carriages are laid on so people can get there. Why not make it free?
:00:47. > :00:50.While some commentators wish to make political capital out of this for
:00:51. > :00:53.some reason we are determined to make it a success. There are
:00:54. > :01:01.substantial costs than running these events and it is appropriate people
:01:02. > :01:08.be towards enjoying it. But Armed Forces Day is free. That is to make
:01:09. > :01:12.sure it is a success. Why doesn't the Scottish Government put money
:01:13. > :01:20.into Bannockburn and make that free? We are doing what we have planned to
:01:21. > :01:25.do. We put money into homecoming events to make sure they are
:01:26. > :01:30.successful. On one day we are working with planning chiefs in
:01:31. > :01:39.Scotland and have a very special choir and the on Monday for
:01:40. > :01:53.Bannockburn. -- planned day. Let us move on. ?200 million plus several
:01:54. > :01:58.hundred million pounds over a period of years for setting up tax and
:01:59. > :02:03.benefits, are we now revising the Scottish Government estimates? Is it
:02:04. > :02:10.now ?200 million plus several billion more? The Scottish
:02:11. > :02:21.Government has always said there would be an element of setup costs.
:02:22. > :02:32.We set a reasonable figure would be set up. The UK estimate which Danny
:02:33. > :02:37.Alexander brought forward of a 12 times greater amount has been
:02:38. > :02:42.completely discredited. What is completely absent from this debate
:02:43. > :02:47.is the Scottish Government doing the calculations itself and bringing
:02:48. > :02:52.them in a document to put in front of the Scottish people before the
:02:53. > :02:58.vote in the referendum. They could then say this is what we think, is
:02:59. > :03:05.that going to happen? Firstly, that is not quite fair to ours. We have
:03:06. > :03:10.said they will be an element of cost. People want us to be candid
:03:11. > :03:17.about this. We have said they will be costs of the reasonable order. We
:03:18. > :03:22.were ready to negotiate and remain ready to sit around the table and
:03:23. > :03:30.have reasonable discussions as I do in my daily job with UK ministers.
:03:31. > :03:34.What is your best estimate? Tell Makro the UK Government refused to
:03:35. > :03:40.sit down around the table and negotiate these points which is why
:03:41. > :03:43.it is not possible. You have produced documents over the past few
:03:44. > :03:49.weeks which talk about what might happen if Rod activity in the
:03:50. > :03:54.Scottish economy was increased and what then hypothetically that would
:03:55. > :03:58.mean in terms of the size of the Scottish economy. You have put
:03:59. > :04:01.figures on them and publish the document saying vote for
:04:02. > :04:05.independence and it will be brilliant. You can do that which is
:04:06. > :04:11.entirely speculative yet you cannot give the best assessment of what the
:04:12. > :04:18.start-up costs of independence would be? We have put forward the fact we
:04:19. > :04:24.believe the initial start-up costs would be of the order of 200
:04:25. > :04:30.million. That is just something you picked up from Professor Dunne levy.
:04:31. > :04:34.The UK figures were 12 times that which were completely discredited
:04:35. > :04:39.and probably the biggest exaggeration in the wall of the
:04:40. > :04:42.referendum campaign. You need to come up with some of your own.
:04:43. > :04:50.People cannot understand why you find this so difficult. We have put
:04:51. > :04:54.forward some detail in our white paper and more details in response
:04:55. > :04:57.to the debate as we heard the first minister in the Scottish Parliament.
:04:58. > :05:01.Professor You're watching
:05:02. > :05:03.Sunday Politics Scotland. Let's cross now
:05:04. > :05:07.for the news with Andrew Kerr. A new academic study puts
:05:08. > :05:10.the immediate start-up costs of an independent Scotland
:05:11. > :05:15.at ?200 million. Professor Patrick Dunleavy,
:05:16. > :05:18.of the London School of Economics, said the costs in the event
:05:19. > :05:21.of a yes vote would arise from the need to set up operations
:05:22. > :05:25.like tax and benefits services. SNP ministers said
:05:26. > :05:28.the estimate has blown out of the water the Treasury's start-up
:05:29. > :05:33.figure of more than ?2.5 billion. Better Together said the Scottish
:05:34. > :05:35.government must now set out A woman's been rescued
:05:36. > :05:41.after swimming in the sea off one The incident happened after
:05:42. > :05:47.a party on the island of Egilsay. Two kayakers who went to her
:05:48. > :05:51.aid also got into difficulty. The woman was taken to hospital
:05:52. > :05:53.in Kirkwall, One of the oldest surviving copies
:05:54. > :06:00.of a poem detailing the Battle of Bannockburn has been restored
:06:01. > :06:04.in time for the 700th anniversary. The 1400 line epic poem was written
:06:05. > :06:09.by the Archdeacon of Aberdeen It covers the Scottish wars of
:06:10. > :06:16.independence under Robert the Bruce. A 15th-century copy has been
:06:17. > :06:18.restored by a team at It's day nine of the Queen's Baton
:06:19. > :06:25.relay for the Commonwealth Games and it's making
:06:26. > :06:27.its way through South Lanarkshire. The relay started in Lanark
:06:28. > :06:30.and will carry on throughout the area before eventually finishing
:06:31. > :06:34.the day in Hamilton. A man was arrested in Kilmarnock
:06:35. > :06:53.last night after he attempted to Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut
:06:54. > :06:56.North-South split for the afternoon, with northern Scotland cloudy,
:06:57. > :07:04.patchy rain and drizzle at times, and Shetland look like predominantly
:07:05. > :07:09.dry. From the lowlands southward, mostly dry. A bright afternoon as
:07:10. > :07:12.well. Temperatures responding to the heat. Up to 20 Celsius across
:07:13. > :07:14.southern Scotland, cooler across the North. It will remain rather
:07:15. > :07:30.cloudy. Now it is time for the look at what
:07:31. > :07:33.is coming up in the week ahead. Tom Gordon from the Sunday Herald
:07:34. > :07:40.and the writer Katie Grant away with me now. -- are here. Let's start
:07:41. > :07:46.with this start-up costs it fascinating or does it put you to
:07:47. > :07:51.sleep? It slightly puts me to sleep but it makes me disbelief both
:07:52. > :07:54.sides. All I can think of is any estimate is always too low. Look at
:07:55. > :07:59.the Holyrood Parliament building, we have so many examples of things
:08:00. > :08:07.saying, it's going to cost this amount, and it cost 67 times that.
:08:08. > :08:11.-- six or seven. Everybody knows 200 million is not going to be of the
:08:12. > :08:14.real cost. Most people are hazy about the figures, but they know it
:08:15. > :08:19.is going to be expensive, and the people who are going to clean up our
:08:20. > :08:26.administrators, lawyers, tax collectors. That is the message that
:08:27. > :08:30.comes through. The British government's paper on this rather
:08:31. > :08:42.blew up in their face, because the Professor Dunleavy's report. Yes,
:08:43. > :08:47.they said 200 billion -- 2 billion, and he blew that up. It has taken a
:08:48. > :08:51.Sunday newspaper, and full crest -- credit to them, to commission a
:08:52. > :08:59.report. The Scottish gunmen should have done that. -- the Scottish
:09:00. > :09:08.government. Obviously, they are now going to be under pressure to give
:09:09. > :09:12.something to people. Yes, Professor Dunleavy turned this paper around
:09:13. > :09:20.very quickly. It could be very heavily caveat heavy, but it is
:09:21. > :09:25.clear, saying what the ups and downs are, the time frames for phasing in
:09:26. > :09:29.these taxes etc, he has done a dry quickly, and why has the Scottish
:09:30. > :09:35.government not done it? This is independence 101. Now don't get
:09:36. > :09:39.overexcited about this, but apparently, Better Together, they
:09:40. > :09:42.are producing leaflets and they are going to send them out to every
:09:43. > :09:47.household in Scotland. You could be on tenterhooks. I am waiting for
:09:48. > :09:53.mine to drop through the door! I can't wait! I wonder if anyone has
:09:54. > :09:55.done a cost benefit analysis on leafleting. Most people will stick
:09:56. > :09:59.them on the bend. I suppose they feel they have got to do them
:10:00. > :10:03.because they -- stick them in the bin. Because campaigns have always
:10:04. > :10:09.done this. I don't think they do make much difference. Perhaps it
:10:10. > :10:13.would make a difference if they did not do it. It is going to cost some
:10:14. > :10:19.enormous sum of money to send them out. Do you think they do any good?
:10:20. > :10:27.I might get a dog to sit next to the letterbox! I don't know how much
:10:28. > :10:30.impact this has. Every time I open a newspaper, a leaflet for that
:10:31. > :10:38.debate. People see this stuff all the time. I do not think eight F
:10:39. > :10:45.will make a big difference. -- a letterbox drop. What you think about
:10:46. > :10:52.this latest thing that David Cameron should debate with Alex Salmond?
:10:53. > :10:57.Alex Salmond said he would debate with Alistair Cameron but only if
:10:58. > :11:01.David Cameron refuses. The damage from David Cameron not doing it is
:11:02. > :11:05.far less of the damage that would be doing if he does do it. All it would
:11:06. > :11:11.say is, Tory toff with David Cameron's accent, which is just like
:11:12. > :11:18.mine, Tory toff against plucky Alex Salmond. I am curious that you say
:11:19. > :11:21.that, you are broadly right of centre in your beliefs, there is an
:11:22. > :11:26.argument from your point of view to say, it is wrong to say that David
:11:27. > :11:30.Cameron... People might not vote Conservative in Scotland, but it is
:11:31. > :11:33.wrong to think that David Cameron is not seen as a credible figure in
:11:34. > :11:37.people in Scotland so he should do it. People would not listen to
:11:38. > :11:45.anything that wasn't said. There would only be this juxtaposition,
:11:46. > :11:50.for the better Cameron -- of David Cameron and Alex Salmond. Pictures
:11:51. > :11:52.do far more than the words, people would stare at that picture and that
:11:53. > :11:56.would be their abiding memory. I think years much better to debate
:11:57. > :12:02.against Alistair Darling who is a Scot. It is practical, I cannot
:12:03. > :12:08.think he would make any other decision. It is not amazing he would
:12:09. > :12:12.agree to a debate with Alex Salmond -- Alistair Darling, because he
:12:13. > :12:16.wants to debate. He had taken his time, at least there will now be a
:12:17. > :12:20.debate. Do you think David Cameron should or should not? I think he
:12:21. > :12:27.should but I understand why he should not. Most sides of the
:12:28. > :12:29.campaign are homing in on Labour voters, and David Cameron presses
:12:30. > :12:36.all the wrong buttons for those people. So you are saying it is the
:12:37. > :12:40.specific audience that up and decided, that they need to appeal
:12:41. > :12:46.to? They are going to have a laser-like focus on undecideds.
:12:47. > :12:54.David Cameron is the wrong person to put up for those people. Are you an
:12:55. > :13:01.armed forces they person or a Bannockburn person? I suppose I
:13:02. > :13:09.would be an Armed Forces Day person, I am a medieval historian, I like
:13:10. > :13:17.that stuff, but the Bannockburn stuff this year, it has a
:13:18. > :13:22.cartoonlike character. Where is the Armed Forces Day is about serving
:13:23. > :13:29.personnel and has more relevance. Which are you going to? I am going
:13:30. > :13:35.to sit them both out, I'm doing to take the kids to the botanic Gardens
:13:36. > :13:42.as usual. If you were going? I would probably go to the free one, it is
:13:43. > :13:48.?60 for the family tickets, you cannot take buddies in, you can't
:13:49. > :13:51.take professional -- buddies in, you can't take professional photographic
:13:52. > :13:55.equipment, it is not selling raided. I will be back next week.
:13:56. > :13:58.Goodbye. Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut