:01:05. > :01:10.It is threatening the life of a second British hostage. David
:01:11. > :01:19.Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil. President Obama
:01:20. > :01:27.said the US were shoulder to shoulder in grief. Alex Salmond says
:01:28. > :01:31.Scotland stands on the cusp of history as he predicts a historic
:01:32. > :01:37.and substantial victory on Thursday's referendum. The latest
:01:38. > :01:41.poll shows the two sides neck and neck. I will ask Tommy Sheridan
:01:42. > :01:50.about his vision for an independent Scotland. After last week's
:01:51. > :01:51.interventions by Gordon Brown and other leaders, I will ask George
:01:52. > :01:54.Galloway if it is enough. Coming up on
:01:55. > :01:55.Sunday Politics Scotland: The Scottish aid worker,
:01:56. > :01:58.David Haines, has been killed by extremists from Islamic State,
:01:59. > :02:01.and they've threatened the life Late last night, as most folk were
:02:02. > :02:16.preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried
:02:17. > :02:19.out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar
:02:20. > :02:23.to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,
:02:24. > :02:25.showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken
:02:26. > :02:29.captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,
:02:30. > :02:32.who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life
:02:33. > :02:36.of a second hostage from the UK. Mr Haines is
:02:37. > :02:38.the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to
:02:39. > :02:43.his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder
:02:44. > :02:50.as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines?
:02:51. > :02:53.family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,
:02:54. > :03:02."We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers
:03:03. > :03:05.and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England
:03:06. > :03:09.and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond
:03:10. > :03:26.condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable
:03:27. > :03:31.barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the
:03:32. > :03:33.family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude
:03:34. > :03:40.in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked
:03:41. > :03:49.whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe
:03:50. > :03:58.whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to
:03:59. > :04:00.deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,
:04:01. > :04:07.legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that
:04:08. > :04:09.to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a
:04:10. > :04:11.threat to humanity. Our security correspondent
:04:12. > :04:23.Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra
:04:24. > :04:29.emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I
:04:30. > :04:33.would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron
:04:34. > :04:36.are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.
:04:37. > :04:41.They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for
:04:42. > :04:45.instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to
:04:46. > :04:49.kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get
:04:50. > :04:54.hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions
:04:55. > :05:00.to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of
:05:01. > :05:07.options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions
:05:08. > :05:12.and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil
:05:13. > :05:16.facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,
:05:17. > :05:23.they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will
:05:24. > :05:28.have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,
:05:29. > :05:32.because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,
:05:33. > :05:37.that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air
:05:38. > :05:43.strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria. We
:05:44. > :05:46.heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State
:05:47. > :05:51.last week when he talked about building a coalition, about
:05:52. > :05:56.authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still
:05:57. > :06:03.waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it
:06:04. > :06:11.will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the
:06:12. > :06:15.question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --
:06:16. > :06:28.arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from
:06:29. > :06:31.government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what
:06:32. > :06:35.was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a
:06:36. > :06:39.result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting
:06:40. > :06:42.to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a
:06:43. > :06:47.result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens
:06:48. > :06:50.their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,
:06:51. > :06:57.that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and
:06:58. > :07:02.see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and
:07:03. > :07:06.American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that
:07:07. > :07:12.would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is. As
:07:13. > :07:15.you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting
:07:16. > :07:19.actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The
:07:20. > :07:23.theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages
:07:24. > :07:26.may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly
:07:27. > :07:31.and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that
:07:32. > :07:34.time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will
:07:35. > :07:38.be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you
:07:39. > :07:42.have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,
:07:43. > :07:49.and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing
:07:50. > :07:51.everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.
:07:52. > :07:55.Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday
:07:56. > :08:02.gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum
:08:03. > :08:05.If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.
:08:06. > :08:07.Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,
:08:08. > :08:10.the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.
:08:11. > :08:18.The new consensus is that it's too close to call.
:08:19. > :08:25.If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland
:08:26. > :08:29.was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the
:08:30. > :08:32.opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at
:08:33. > :08:40.the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only
:08:41. > :08:44.37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you
:08:45. > :08:48.can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets
:08:49. > :08:52.narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has
:08:53. > :08:56.the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put
:08:57. > :09:01.the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but
:09:02. > :09:06.that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls
:09:07. > :09:18.were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign
:09:19. > :09:21.-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one
:09:22. > :09:27.percentage point different. ICM have the yes campaign back in the lead at
:09:28. > :09:34.54% and the no campaign at 46%, but their sample size was 705 Scottish
:09:35. > :09:42.adults, smaller than usual. Another suggests that the contest remains on
:09:43. > :09:47.a knife edge with 49.4% against 50.6%. When fed into the poll of
:09:48. > :09:54.polls the figures average out with yes at 49% and polls -- no at 51%.
:09:55. > :09:58.But some people think 18% are undecided, and it is how they vote
:09:59. > :09:59.gets -- when they get to the polling booths that could make all the
:10:00. > :10:01.difference. campaigner and Respect Party MP,
:10:02. > :10:10.George Galloway. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big
:10:11. > :10:13.business, big oil, big banks, the Tories, the Orange order, all
:10:14. > :10:19.against Scottish independence. You sure you are on right side? Yes,
:10:20. > :10:22.because the interests of working people are in staying together. This
:10:23. > :10:26.is a troubled moment in a marriage, a very long marriage, in which some
:10:27. > :10:31.good things and bad things have been achieved together. And there is no
:10:32. > :10:34.doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the
:10:35. > :10:39.minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working
:10:40. > :10:42.people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I
:10:43. > :10:46.have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter affair
:10:47. > :10:50.and it's particularly bad for the children will stop that's why I am
:10:51. > :10:55.here. You talk about working people, and particularly Scottish working
:10:56. > :10:59.people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want
:11:00. > :11:06.to create cannot now be done in a UK context. Why should they not have a
:11:07. > :11:09.shot of going it alone? Because the opposite will happen. Separation
:11:10. > :11:13.will cause a race to the bottom in taxation. Alex Salmond has already
:11:14. > :11:17.announced he will cut the taxes on companies, corporation tax, down to
:11:18. > :11:23.3% hello whatever it is in the rest of these islands. And business will
:11:24. > :11:29.only be attracted to come here, country of 5 million people on if
:11:30. > :11:35.there is low regulation, low public expenditure, low levels of taxation
:11:36. > :11:38.for them will stop you cannot have Scandinavian social democracy on
:11:39. > :11:42.Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the
:11:43. > :11:47.rest of the UK, they will race Alex Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it
:11:48. > :11:54.by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people
:11:55. > :11:57.cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people
:11:58. > :12:01.on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's
:12:02. > :12:04.take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as
:12:05. > :12:09.anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and
:12:10. > :12:14.reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited
:12:15. > :12:18.plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare
:12:19. > :12:24.state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just
:12:25. > :12:28.explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a
:12:29. > :12:34.minute. He will be along in May. The polls indicate... They say he is
:12:35. > :12:39.only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the
:12:40. > :12:44.next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think
:12:45. > :12:48.that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I
:12:49. > :12:52.think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the
:12:53. > :12:57.Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super
:12:58. > :13:03.Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of
:13:04. > :13:07.people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot
:13:08. > :13:11.base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win
:13:12. > :13:15.the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten
:13:16. > :13:19.on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the
:13:20. > :13:25.faces of the government side not only that they were headed for
:13:26. > :13:34.defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the
:13:35. > :13:40.bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be
:13:41. > :13:46.a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish
:13:47. > :13:50.economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that
:13:51. > :13:55.will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland
:13:56. > :14:03.decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and
:14:04. > :14:06.austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You
:14:07. > :14:09.mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and
:14:10. > :14:14.Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to
:14:15. > :14:20.be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of
:14:21. > :14:24.them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --
:14:25. > :14:30.telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear
:14:31. > :14:35.radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They
:14:36. > :14:38.would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling
:14:39. > :14:43.with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the
:14:44. > :14:47.Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a
:14:48. > :14:51.government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons
:14:52. > :14:54.and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again
:14:55. > :15:02.now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the
:15:03. > :15:05.consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you
:15:06. > :15:12.opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in
:15:13. > :15:15.their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many
:15:16. > :15:21.people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been
:15:22. > :15:27.drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is
:15:28. > :15:35.interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and
:15:36. > :15:40.this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up
:15:41. > :15:47.a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy
:15:48. > :15:50.funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,
:15:51. > :15:53.assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side
:15:54. > :16:10.squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say
:16:11. > :16:18.about that, whatever the result. This is very much a Scottish Labour
:16:19. > :16:23.project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is
:16:24. > :16:41.potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal
:16:42. > :16:45.responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job
:16:46. > :16:53.that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this
:16:54. > :16:57.island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me
:16:58. > :17:02.to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they
:17:03. > :17:07.are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this
:17:08. > :17:11.referendum is lost by your side, it will be because traditional
:17:12. > :17:15.working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of
:17:16. > :17:21.Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?
:17:22. > :17:26.Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes
:17:27. > :17:31.is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European
:17:32. > :17:36.Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be
:17:37. > :17:42.voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy
:17:43. > :17:49.of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as
:17:50. > :17:55.unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland, it
:17:56. > :18:00.will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to
:18:01. > :18:08.help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if
:18:09. > :18:13.it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain
:18:14. > :18:17.are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only
:18:18. > :18:22.the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why
:18:23. > :18:28.shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of
:18:29. > :18:34.expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,
:18:35. > :18:39.carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are
:18:40. > :18:44.repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it
:18:45. > :18:50.change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of
:18:51. > :18:57.Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to
:18:58. > :19:02.put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife
:19:03. > :19:06.would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential
:19:07. > :19:11.consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that
:19:12. > :19:14.is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would
:19:15. > :19:19.change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of
:19:20. > :19:24.view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are
:19:25. > :19:31.being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are
:19:32. > :19:35.already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could
:19:36. > :19:40.not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers
:19:41. > :19:45.for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British
:19:46. > :19:51.state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond
:19:52. > :19:57.idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again
:19:58. > :20:03.because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be
:20:04. > :20:08.narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of
:20:09. > :20:14.unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're
:20:15. > :20:20.still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let
:20:21. > :20:25.Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly
:20:26. > :20:31.win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking
:20:32. > :20:38.about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably
:20:39. > :20:44.not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what
:20:45. > :20:52.about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are
:20:53. > :20:57.right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish
:20:58. > :21:04.Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I
:21:05. > :21:08.told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime
:21:09. > :21:15.against young people in England. It was risking everything. We are led
:21:16. > :21:23.by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We
:21:24. > :21:23.need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.
:21:24. > :21:29.Thank you. It's been one of the longest and
:21:30. > :21:32.hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing
:21:33. > :21:35.the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together
:21:36. > :21:50.the key moments of the campaign. It is the other thing drawing people
:21:51. > :21:56.to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is
:21:57. > :22:02.the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,
:22:03. > :22:07.famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel
:22:08. > :22:11.dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the
:22:12. > :22:16.elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became
:22:17. > :22:21.reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year
:22:22. > :22:26.later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in
:22:27. > :22:35.this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White
:22:36. > :22:40.Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have
:22:41. > :22:45.ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent
:22:46. > :22:50.country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,
:22:51. > :22:55.Labour and the Lib Dems under the leadership of Alistair Darling. Then
:22:56. > :22:58.the Scottish people were bombarded with two years of photo
:22:59. > :23:03.opportunities and a lot of campaigning. For the no campaign,
:23:04. > :23:09.Jim Murphy went on tour but took a break when he was egged and his
:23:10. > :23:14.events were often hijacked by yes campaigners who were accused of
:23:15. > :23:18.being intimidating. In turn, they accused the no campaign of using
:23:19. > :23:26.scare tactics. Things heated up when the TV dinner -- during the TV
:23:27. > :23:32.debate. Fever pitch was reached one week ago when one poll suggested the
:23:33. > :23:37.yes campaign was in the lead for the first time. The three main
:23:38. > :23:41.Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to head north. I think people can feel
:23:42. > :23:45.it is like a general election, that you make a decision and five years
:23:46. > :23:49.later you can make another decision if you are fed up with the Tories,
:23:50. > :23:59.give them a kick... This is totally different. And Labour shelved not
:24:00. > :24:03.quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex Salmond took a helicopter instead.
:24:04. > :24:09.This is about the formation of the NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign
:24:10. > :24:20.is that changes to the NHS in Linden -- in England would lead to
:24:21. > :24:26.privatisation in Scotland. Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound
:24:27. > :24:30.was trashed by big names. There were other big question is, what would
:24:31. > :24:35.happen to military hardware like Trident based on the Clyde? Would an
:24:36. > :24:40.independent Scotland be able to join the EU? And how much oil was left
:24:41. > :24:45.underneath the North Sea? This panel is about famous Scots, we
:24:46. > :24:50.have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry, Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon
:24:51. > :24:54.Brown. These are big changes we are Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon
:24:55. > :25:00.proposing to strengthen the Scottish parliament, but at the same time to
:25:01. > :25:04.stay as part of the UK. A regular on the campaign, he was front and
:25:05. > :25:08.centre when things got close, unveiling a timetable for more
:25:09. > :25:12.devolution. People wondered whether Ed Miliband was able to reach the
:25:13. > :25:17.parts of Scotland Labour leader should reach, and at Westminster
:25:18. > :25:21.some Tories pondered whether David Cameron could stay as prime minister
:25:22. > :25:26.if there was a yes vote. This tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a
:25:27. > :25:32.good place to get away from it all but it is crystallising voters'
:25:33. > :25:41.views. Look at what we have contributed to Great Britain, and I
:25:42. > :25:44.am British and I hope to be staying British. This is what people from
:25:45. > :25:48.Scotland have done, taken to the rest of the world in many cases and
:25:49. > :25:52.I think I am going to vote yes. I am so inspired by it. It has certainly
:25:53. > :25:58.inspired me to have a go at stitching. How long do you think it
:25:59. > :26:02.would take to do the whole thing? I would say to put aside maybe 30
:26:03. > :26:06.hours of stitching. Maybe by the time I am done, we will know more
:26:07. > :26:10.about how the fabric of the nation might be changing.
:26:11. > :26:13.And I've been joined by yes campaigner and convenor
:26:14. > :26:15.of Scotland's Solidarity socialist party, Tommy Sheridan.
:26:16. > :26:27.An economy dependent on oil, the Queen as head of state, membership
:26:28. > :26:33.of the world 's premier nuclear alliance of capitalist nations - is
:26:34. > :26:43.that the socialist Scotland you are fighting for? No, that is the SNP's
:26:44. > :26:47.prospectus and they are entitled to put forward their vision, but it is
:26:48. > :26:54.not mine or that of the majority of Scotland. We will find out in two
:26:55. > :26:58.years. On Thursday we are not voting for a political party, we are voting
:26:59. > :27:04.for our freedom as a country. That is why people are going to vote yes
:27:05. > :27:09.on Thursday. A lot of people are voting for what you call freedom
:27:10. > :27:13.because they think it will be more Scotland. You have already got free
:27:14. > :27:18.prescriptions, no tuition fees, free care for the elderly. You might not
:27:19. > :27:23.in future have that if public spending is overdependent on the
:27:24. > :27:27.price of oil, over which you have no control. We don't have to worry
:27:28. > :27:35.about one single resource, we already have 20% of the fishing
:27:36. > :27:44.stock in Europe. We already have 25% of the wind, wave and solar power
:27:45. > :27:49.generation. We, as an independent country, have huge resources,
:27:50. > :27:54.natural resources but also people resources. We have five first-class
:27:55. > :27:58.universities, food and beverages industry which is the envy of the
:27:59. > :28:02.world. We have the ability to produce the resources on the
:28:03. > :28:06.revenues that won't just maintain the health service and education but
:28:07. > :28:10.it will develop health and education. I don't want to stand
:28:11. > :28:14.still, I want to redistribute wealth. But all of the projections
:28:15. > :28:22.of public spending for an independent Scotland show that to
:28:23. > :28:27.keep spending at the current level you need a strong price of oil and
:28:28. > :28:33.you are dependent on this commodity which goes up and down and sideways.
:28:34. > :28:38.That is a gamble. I have got to laugh because I have been told the
:28:39. > :28:45.most pessimistic is that in 40 years the oil is running out, panic
:28:46. > :28:48.stations! If you were told by the BBC you could only guarantee
:28:49. > :28:54.employment for the next 40 years you would be over the moon. I am talking
:28:55. > :29:00.about in the next five. You need 50% of your revenues to come from oil to
:29:01. > :29:04.continue spending and that is not a guarantee. Of course it is, the
:29:05. > :29:15.minimum survival of the oil is 40 years. Please get your viewers to go
:29:16. > :29:27.onto the Internet and look at the website called oilandgas.com. The
:29:28. > :29:32.West Coast has 100 years of oil to be extracted. It hasn't been done
:29:33. > :29:38.because in 1981 Michael Heseltine said we cannot extract the oil
:29:39. > :29:47.because we have Trident going up and down there. Let's get rid of Trident
:29:48. > :29:53.and extract the oil. You are a trot right, why have you failed to learn
:29:54. > :29:58.his famous dictum, socialism in one country is impossible. Revolutions
:29:59. > :30:03.and change are not just single event. What will happen here on
:30:04. > :30:08.Thursday is a democratic revolution. The people are fed up of being
:30:09. > :30:13.patronised and lied to by this mob in Westminster who have used and
:30:14. > :30:19.abused us for far too long. The smaller people now have a voice.
:30:20. > :30:28.What about socialism in one country? Mr Trotsky warned you
:30:29. > :30:32.against that. The no campaign represents the past. The yes
:30:33. > :30:36.campaign represents the future. That is the truth of the matter. What we
:30:37. > :30:44.are going to do in an independent Scotland is tackle inequality and a
:30:45. > :30:50.scourge of low pay. If we vote no on Thursday, there will be more low pay
:30:51. > :30:53.on Friday, more poverty and food banks on Friday. I'm not going to be
:30:54. > :31:03.lectured by these big banks, you vote less -- yes and we will leave
:31:04. > :31:09.the country! The food banks will be the ones closing. If you got your
:31:10. > :31:14.way, for the type of Scotland you would like to see, state control of
:31:15. > :31:17.business, nationalisation of the Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be
:31:18. > :31:28.clogged with people Yes, hoping to come into Scotland,
:31:29. > :31:33.because in their hearts, the Scottish people know that England
:31:34. > :31:37.because in their hearts, the want to see the people having the
:31:38. > :31:40.bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of
:31:41. > :31:44.London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big
:31:45. > :31:48.business. When we are independent and investing in social housing, the
:31:49. > :31:53.people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will
:31:54. > :31:57.rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one
:31:58. > :32:00.country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than
:32:01. > :32:04.the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You
:32:05. > :32:12.think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally
:32:13. > :32:16.and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the
:32:17. > :32:20.world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be
:32:21. > :32:24.encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as
:32:25. > :32:29.well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three
:32:30. > :32:32.millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed
:32:33. > :32:36.Miliband wins the next election, he said he would stick to the story
:32:37. > :32:42.spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to
:32:43. > :32:46.run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great
:32:47. > :32:50.socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist
:32:51. > :32:56.party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more
:32:57. > :33:00.votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology
:33:01. > :33:03.question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years
:33:04. > :33:18.time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you
:33:19. > :33:24.are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and
:33:25. > :33:27.got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won
:33:28. > :33:31.the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the
:33:32. > :33:35.clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the
:33:36. > :33:43.close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --
:33:44. > :33:48.service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and
:33:49. > :33:50.people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a
:33:51. > :33:55.constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the
:33:56. > :33:59.Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black
:34:00. > :34:03.and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a
:34:04. > :34:08.crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are
:34:09. > :34:13.absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is
:34:14. > :34:15.finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance
:34:16. > :34:21.of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no
:34:22. > :34:25.vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to
:34:26. > :34:29.rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,
:34:30. > :34:37.because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political
:34:38. > :34:41.party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite
:34:42. > :34:47.is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your
:34:48. > :34:53.colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal
:34:54. > :34:56.of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to
:34:57. > :35:03.be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he
:35:04. > :35:08.engineered your downfall, but I'm still here and his newspaper has
:35:09. > :35:12.closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other
:35:13. > :35:16.millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on
:35:17. > :35:22.Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this
:35:23. > :35:27.vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather
:35:28. > :35:32.not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who
:35:33. > :35:36.is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the
:35:37. > :35:43.BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a
:35:44. > :35:46.stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going
:35:47. > :35:51.to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try
:35:52. > :35:55.and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you
:35:56. > :35:58.have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you
:35:59. > :36:04.personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,
:36:05. > :36:09.generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look
:36:10. > :36:13.at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil
:36:14. > :36:17.not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see
:36:18. > :36:22.it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.
:36:23. > :36:28.Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 60/40.
:36:29. > :36:33.Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the
:36:34. > :36:37.working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up
:36:38. > :36:46.being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into
:36:47. > :36:48.tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,
:36:49. > :37:13.and they will use You're watching Sunday Politics. We
:37:14. > :37:17.say goodbye to viewers and Scotland. Good morning and welcome to
:37:18. > :37:19.Sunday Politics Scotland. The Scottish Aid worker, David
:37:20. > :37:23.Haines, has been executed by Islamic State, and the group has
:37:24. > :37:25.threatened the life Both campaigns hit the streets
:37:26. > :37:30.in search We'll be talking to the
:37:31. > :37:35.First Minister and to Lord Reid Professor John Curtice will give
:37:36. > :37:39.his analysis Islamic State extremists have
:37:40. > :37:48.carried out their threat to kill Late last night, a video was
:37:49. > :37:53.released, appearing to show a Mr Haines, who was 44 years old
:37:54. > :37:58.grew up in Perth. He is
:37:59. > :38:00.the third Westerner to be killed Two American journalists
:38:01. > :38:16.have also been murdered. A man with a great passion for
:38:17. > :38:22.helping others, that is how colleagues describe David Janes
:38:23. > :38:27.pictured here in Croatia in 2003, he helped refugees moved back to their
:38:28. > :38:31.homes and rebuild their lives. -- David Haines. Many people do not
:38:32. > :38:37.know who to turn to. In doing this, our office goes across to Belgrade
:38:38. > :38:41.and meets the people so they can gain trust from us. David was
:38:42. > :38:49.working with a French charity when he was kidnapped in Syria 19 months
:38:50. > :38:53.ago. Holding a meeting of COBRA el layer, David Cameron condemned the
:38:54. > :38:58.attack describing it as an act of pure evil. The foreign office says
:38:59. > :39:02.it is no reason to doubt the man shown is David Haines in the video.
:39:03. > :39:07.We are not showing any moving pictures from that film, but we are
:39:08. > :39:14.going to show a single image and a message from David's killer. You
:39:15. > :39:22.might find this distressing. This British man has to pay the price.
:39:23. > :39:27.David, whose parents live on air, went to Perth Academy. He has two
:39:28. > :39:31.children. Just 24 hours ago, his family appealed to the outdoors.
:39:32. > :39:34.Today they say he will be mist terribly and forever loved. --
:39:35. > :39:36.captors. Our guests of the day are the
:39:37. > :39:39.First Minister, Alex Salmond, and the former Labour cabinet
:39:40. > :39:41.minister, Lord Reid. We'll be asking them for
:39:42. > :39:44.their reaction in a few moments. Meanwhile, on the campaign trail,
:39:45. > :39:46.well, both sides have won, Alistair Darling says we should
:39:47. > :39:49."be in no doubt" that Scotland will reject independence -
:39:50. > :39:52.and that that's based on Meanwhile Blair Jenkins,
:39:53. > :39:56.chief executive of the Yes campaign says based on his canvass returns,
:39:57. > :40:01."I think we've got a Yes vote". We'll be trying to assess how
:40:02. > :40:06.confident each side really is But first let's remind ourselves
:40:07. > :40:11.of the campaign headlines this week in our referendum week in
:40:12. > :40:28.Sixty Seconds. The Chancellor promised a timetable
:40:29. > :40:31.for more personal Scotland on the day a new poll suggested the yes
:40:32. > :40:36.campaign was ahead for the first time. The First Minister said it was
:40:37. > :40:44.too little too late. Gordon Brown then suggested a timetable would
:40:45. > :40:49.start on the 19th of September. David Cameron and Ed Miliband mist
:40:50. > :40:56.Prime Minister 's questions to campaign in Scotland alongside Nick
:40:57. > :41:03.Clegg. The First Minister described their day as teams Scotland against
:41:04. > :41:08.team Westminster. Mark Carney said a currency union would be incompatible
:41:09. > :41:15.with sovereignty. RBS will move their registered headquarters from
:41:16. > :41:22.Edinburgh to London. Alex Salmond accuse the no side of coordinating
:41:23. > :41:26.business scare stories. He urged voters to opt for independence.
:41:27. > :41:28.Well, the First Minister, Alex Salmond,
:41:29. > :41:34.First of all, the news of that killing of the Scottish aid worker,
:41:35. > :41:46.You have had a meeting of your resilience committee. What has that
:41:47. > :41:51.decided? Firstly, let's express our condolences and solidarity with the
:41:52. > :41:55.family who have borne the difficulties of the last few months
:41:56. > :41:59.with tremendous dignity against the uncertainty of the fate of David
:42:00. > :42:07.Haines. Now we have seen this act of barbarism. There are a number of
:42:08. > :42:11.matters within the Scottish government Jude restriction, firstly
:42:12. > :42:17.there is the insurance of security and privacy for the family, a matter
:42:18. > :42:21.which we take very seriously. Secondly, there are some
:42:22. > :42:28.jurisdictional matter is that we need to deal with the Home Office,
:42:29. > :42:32.that will be done with officers to investigate and pursue the
:42:33. > :42:35.perpetrators of the crime. Thirdly and importantly there is the issue
:42:36. > :42:46.of community dig each in within Scotland. -- cohesion. No part of
:42:47. > :42:53.the Muslim community in Scotland is responsible for any part of this. If
:42:54. > :42:57.there is any sign whatsoever of aggravating offences in Scotland, it
:42:58. > :43:05.will be dealt with the full force of them all. We hold strong communities
:43:06. > :43:10.in Scotland together. When you were speaking to Andrew Marr earlier on,
:43:11. > :43:15.you seem to suggest that there might be a role for the United Nations and
:43:16. > :43:19.coordinating action on a legal basis about Islamic State. What I was
:43:20. > :43:24.unclear north was where using that there was a case for military action
:43:25. > :43:31.here as long as it is approved by the United Nations? I am pointing
:43:32. > :43:36.out two things. Firstly we will give continuing support to the foreign
:43:37. > :43:39.office and their efforts in terms of their position and jeopardy of any
:43:40. > :43:44.other hostage as we have done in the case of David Haines, tragically
:43:45. > :43:48.unsuccessful, but at the nonetheless in a matter like this, they deserve
:43:49. > :43:54.complete support and that is what we will do. Secondly, whatever strategy
:43:55. > :44:00.is devised, we have said there has been an absence of policy from not
:44:01. > :44:03.just the UK government but the United States in recent years,
:44:04. > :44:07.therefore it should be done by collective action. I was also
:44:08. > :44:11.pointing out that there was no suggestion, I cannot see any
:44:12. > :44:15.suggestion that China or Russia or any other major state would want to
:44:16. > :44:18.do anything other than respond to what is a challenge to humanity in
:44:19. > :44:24.terms of the barbarism of what we are seeing going on in Iraq and
:44:25. > :44:29.Syria at the moment. But that should be discussed collectively under the
:44:30. > :44:35.rule of international law. Should you win the referendum and become
:44:36. > :44:41.eventually First Minister of independent Scotland. The British
:44:42. > :44:46.government has always taken a very strong line against negotiation in
:44:47. > :44:52.cases like this or against paying ransom. With that also be your
:44:53. > :44:58.policy? I think that is the correct policy. I don't think that any
:44:59. > :45:03.democratic government can allow itself to have its policies
:45:04. > :45:07.interviewed with by terrorist acts. The reasons for that are obvious. It
:45:08. > :45:14.is also important to have a policy and strategy to be pursued. I think
:45:15. > :45:18.that is vitally important which is why I am suggesting the root of
:45:19. > :45:22.collective security would make common sense at the present moment,
:45:23. > :45:27.given the recent history of the last few years. The lack of collective
:45:28. > :45:33.security and international legality has caused so many problems which
:45:34. > :45:38.will stay with us for generations to come. You have been saying this
:45:39. > :45:42.morning that you expect to win the referendum. Is that based on a
:45:43. > :45:52.feeling in your heart or based on actual figures that the yes campaign
:45:53. > :45:56.have? No, it is based on the people around the communities, villages and
:45:57. > :46:02.cities in Scotland. I think anyone who has been in these communities
:46:03. > :46:07.over the last few days knows the movement has moved strongly towards
:46:08. > :46:10.yes. We take nothing for granted. I still believe we are the underdogs
:46:11. > :46:14.in this contest as we have been throughout. We are well aware of the
:46:15. > :46:22.massive influence and power that can be deployed against the bus. We have
:46:23. > :46:29.seen some of that lining up in the last week. -- against us. That
:46:30. > :46:34.movement is against us and towards a yes vote. You have talked about
:46:35. > :46:39.having a team Scotland. You mentioned earlier that perhaps
:46:40. > :46:42.Johann Lamont would take part in it or Michael Carmichael. Which sounds
:46:43. > :46:50.grand if you win the referendum. How will people like Johann Lamont and
:46:51. > :47:02.Michael Carmichael supposed to negotiate a currency union? The
:47:03. > :47:07.reason I mentioned them was because they had already said that was their
:47:08. > :47:14.attitude. He said he would consider his duty to resign as Secretary of
:47:15. > :47:21.State. I said it is the sort of person we want to have within team
:47:22. > :47:25.Scotland. You cannot expect them to be negotiating policies they don't
:47:26. > :47:28.agree with. The circumstances of a yes vote, we would have a verdict
:47:29. > :47:33.from the sovereign will of the people of Scotland. On the
:47:34. > :47:38.circumstances of what is in the White Paper, the proposal we have
:47:39. > :47:41.put forward for the common currency. Everybody after the election and
:47:42. > :47:47.after the referendum except the verdict of the people, that has been
:47:48. > :47:52.run so many times in the past. I am certain in the case of JoAnn Lambert
:47:53. > :47:56.and Alistair, whoever may disagree about this, they will not disagree
:47:57. > :48:06.about the sovereign will of the people. -- Johann Lamont. They
:48:07. > :48:10.haven't just to sign up with the will of the Scottish people in the
:48:11. > :48:14.sense that they will have voted for independence, they have got to sign
:48:15. > :48:17.up for your proposed currency union with the UK even though they have
:48:18. > :48:21.been saying it is against the interests of Scotland. You are
:48:22. > :48:31.expecting them to sign up to the whole package. If you trace back the
:48:32. > :48:35.statements to Alistair, Alistair at one point was saying that the UK
:48:36. > :48:40.should not declared against a currency union. We know Alistair
:48:41. > :48:45.Darling said a currency union would be logical and desirable. Let's not
:48:46. > :48:50.misty what was said and done and posture in a campaign for what
:48:51. > :48:54.happens after the votes are counted and the results are in when everyone
:48:55. > :48:58.will want to move together as quickly as possible to establish a
:48:59. > :49:03.framework in which Scotland can get the best settlement possible. I
:49:04. > :49:09.think the day after the referendum and following a yes vote, then I
:49:10. > :49:13.think you will find a great deal of enthusiasm for putting past argument
:49:14. > :49:17.is behind us and getting on with the job for Scotland. Talking about
:49:18. > :49:24.posturing in a campaign to use your phrase, would it not be health and
:49:25. > :49:32.-- helpful, if you withdrew your promise, / threat suggestion that an
:49:33. > :49:36.independent Scotland would not take part of the UK's debts. That would
:49:37. > :49:48.give you more credibility with the financial markets. Can I point out
:49:49. > :49:56.that the legal position is that the debt remains with the UK government.
:49:57. > :50:01.They accepted that the continuing United Kingdom as they put it would
:50:02. > :50:05.have contractual liability for the debts. What we are offering to do is
:50:06. > :50:20.to finance our probable that share of the debt. -- a appropriate. A
:50:21. > :50:25.substantial proportion of the Treasury gilts, the debts that have
:50:26. > :50:32.been building up, we would have to also have a proportion of the
:50:33. > :50:36.assets. You say for example that... Uses Scotland will be welcomed into
:50:37. > :50:42.the European Union. Should you not get the currency union and not take
:50:43. > :50:44.on the debt, do you think the governments of the euro zone which
:50:45. > :50:50.have gone through all the treasure and stress and diplomatic effort to
:50:51. > :50:57.avoid and light default in Greece, the German government of Angela
:50:58. > :51:00.Merkel with this obsession would welcome Scotland into the European
:51:01. > :51:08.Union when the UK government is saying these people are refusing to
:51:09. > :51:15.pay a share of their debt? You use the word default. Let's be accurate
:51:16. > :51:25.about this. The default has been excepted by the UK government. Now
:51:26. > :51:29.one from any perspective will expect the people of Scotland to take on
:51:30. > :51:34.financing a fair share of the assets, the financial assets, held
:51:35. > :51:38.by the Bank of England unless Leslie were entitled to our fair share of
:51:39. > :51:48.the liability in terms of financing. Unless we were entitled to our share
:51:49. > :51:53.of the assets. -- we want a position where we accept our responsibility,
:51:54. > :51:57.a moral responsibility in my view, to take a share of the liabilities
:51:58. > :52:02.and the financing of these debts which have been built up by George
:52:03. > :52:06.Osborne and Alistair Darling. In turn we should have a share of the
:52:07. > :52:14.assets. In that position the two things will go together. Now one
:52:15. > :52:20.would look askance at that position. Thank you very much for joining us.
:52:21. > :52:34.And listening to that was John Reid who joins us now from our Edinburgh
:52:35. > :52:42.Studio. I wanted to get your thoughts on David Keynes. My
:52:43. > :52:55.condolences are sent to the family and friends of David Haynes.
:52:56. > :53:01.Terrorists do terrible things like this for two reasons, the first is
:53:02. > :53:08.to terrify, frighten and code people. The second is to divide,
:53:09. > :53:17.cause division within people. I hope our response will be resolution and
:53:18. > :53:23.secondly to unite. That is the best response to the terrorists, to
:53:24. > :53:29.defeat the aim. When I see Unite I mean to do what we have always done
:53:30. > :53:36.in these situations at a UK level. We won support from all parties in
:53:37. > :53:41.response to situations like this. Perhaps more importantly, to unite
:53:42. > :53:46.across the division of the referendum here in Scotland because
:53:47. > :53:51.whatever differences Alex Salmond and I have, and we have many, and
:53:52. > :53:57.however robust weekly debate over the next few days, I think it would
:53:58. > :54:05.be a signal back to those who wish to divide us if we resolved that
:54:06. > :54:08.this issue would not become an issue in the referendum. That we would
:54:09. > :54:15.become very careful when dealing with this and that we hereby send
:54:16. > :54:25.that signal and solace to, I hope, the family, that the whole country
:54:26. > :54:29.is united behind them and against the terrorists. One final point
:54:30. > :54:35.about unity, I believe entirely with Alex Salmond that we recognise in
:54:36. > :54:43.Scotland and throughout the UK that this is not a division between one
:54:44. > :54:49.religion and the rest. The dividing line here is between terrorists and
:54:50. > :54:55.others, between evil people and good people. The vast majority of Muslims
:54:56. > :55:02.in this country and throughout the UK will be as horrified as anyone
:55:03. > :55:11.else. Let no-one do the terrorist's work for them by dividing ourselves.
:55:12. > :55:17.Let's move on to the referendum. If yes win, it is very close now, if we
:55:18. > :55:26.can agree it is very close, it is only very close because a Lord of
:55:27. > :55:31.Labour voters are going to vote yes. This is because of an assumption
:55:32. > :55:39.that party leaders should dictate to people how they should vote. They
:55:40. > :55:43.can convince and they simply have not convinced. Saudi, I am having a
:55:44. > :55:52.problem heaving, especially if you entered up to me. There are 20%
:55:53. > :55:56.perhaps more of SNP people who are against separation which is even
:55:57. > :56:02.more amazing because that is the primary central core of the SNP
:56:03. > :56:08.beliefs. More important than an argument against the polls is the
:56:09. > :56:15.undisputed fact it looks very close. Because it is of salt -- because it
:56:16. > :56:20.is so close and of such huge consequences a couple of things come
:56:21. > :56:29.out. For heavens sake, do not use this as a protest vote. There are
:56:30. > :56:34.1000 ways to protest. Gambling with the future of your country, children
:56:35. > :56:40.and grandchildren is not one of them. The second is because of the
:56:41. > :56:45.consequences, very simple. If you do not know, if you genuinely don't
:56:46. > :56:53.know, thought no, don't risk the future of Europe country on the
:56:54. > :56:58.basis of something upon which you are not entirely persuaded. But hang
:56:59. > :57:03.on a minute, it was the Scottish Labour Party who went around for
:57:04. > :57:07.years saying we are the people who will defend Scotland against those
:57:08. > :57:17.Tories down in London. You can hardly be terribly surprised if the
:57:18. > :57:28.want to defend themselves by voting against London. The central question
:57:29. > :57:35.is not the movement in the polls, the central question is, what is the
:57:36. > :57:40.choice that faces people? The choice in the next few days has become
:57:41. > :57:43.clearer, the choice is whether we can be a rich diverse nation with
:57:44. > :57:51.the pride in our history, culture and orders and our control,
:57:52. > :57:56.geographic entity and historic entity, but be part of the bigger
:57:57. > :58:01.state that brings financial opportunity, greater security and so
:58:02. > :58:07.on, or on the other hand say those borders will be inviolable and we
:58:08. > :58:14.will separate with old risk to pensions, currency, jobs, investment
:58:15. > :58:19.and so on that are obvious. What is annoying Alex Salmond and I listen
:58:20. > :58:25.to him tearfully, it is now becoming obvious that those dangers are real.
:58:26. > :58:29.He has gone through a number of stages digging a hole for himself.
:58:30. > :58:40.The first was to deny the risk existed. Everybody was wrong. The
:58:41. > :58:44.second stage was to threaten retaliation so the Nationalists have
:58:45. > :58:48.said if you see this there will be a day of reckoning but today he is
:58:49. > :58:55.threatening the fault if they do not get there way. I did not say he was
:58:56. > :59:04.threatening the fault. I said the German government had avoided a
:59:05. > :59:10.default in Greece, Mr Salmond says it is not legally a default that he
:59:11. > :59:15.is suggesting he might do. We will see at the rest of the world regard
:59:16. > :59:23.it as the default if you say we will not be our day -- Shear off the
:59:24. > :59:27.debts. If you send that signal to the world, on top of threatening
:59:28. > :59:34.those who are giving employment, investment and jobs to this country
:59:35. > :59:38.providing a law towards pensions, on top of the inherent risks of
:59:39. > :59:45.separation itself years digging deeper into the hole. Your campaign,
:59:46. > :59:50.there has been much said about the timetable of extra powers and
:59:51. > :59:55.devolution. I am completely confused about what these extra powers are.
:59:56. > :59:59.One example on the issue of income tax, the Conservative party is
:00:00. > :00:06.considering devolving all powers over income tax. The Labour Party is
:00:07. > :00:11.considering devolving a little bit more powers. What will this
:00:12. > :00:17.accelerating timetable going to be accelerating? Your policy on the
:00:18. > :00:24.Tories policy? The timetable with which we will agree on the specifics
:00:25. > :00:29.of policies. So we have an excel at each and of something that actually
:00:30. > :00:36.you do not agree on? We do agree there should be further income tax
:00:37. > :00:43.powers. We do agree on the devolution of further income tax. I
:00:44. > :00:47.want to know exactly what it is this accelerated timetable is going to
:00:48. > :00:55.get me. I do not want to know you are going to agree something with
:00:56. > :01:00.the Tories at a later date. If you let me explain. There will be a
:01:01. > :01:05.substantial devolution of power over income tax and other taxes on top of
:01:06. > :01:10.what has already been agreed in the Calman commission. There is common
:01:11. > :01:13.agreement across the parties there should be a devolution of power over
:01:14. > :01:20.well there should be a devolution of power over wealthier to get rid of
:01:21. > :01:26.the dreaded bedroom tax. Why is this important? It is not just because of
:01:27. > :01:31.this campaign. This was announced months ago. Not only does it make
:01:32. > :01:35.the Scottish government more powerful but more responsible and
:01:36. > :01:40.accountable. If you are spending money but do not have the
:01:41. > :01:44.responsibility of raising money you are not a truly responsible
:01:45. > :01:49.parliament. All that has changed is that we are not somehow in the last
:01:50. > :01:55.week saying these are areas which will be devolved, we are setting a
:01:56. > :02:01.timetable so that those agreed in general can set out the specific
:02:02. > :02:07.ones. Before you can set out the rules of a club you have to decide
:02:08. > :02:13.if there is going to be a club. Sorry to entered up. I know you and
:02:14. > :02:19.Alex Salmond have been affecting to not you me when I entered up. Sorry
:02:20. > :02:29.to have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us.
:02:30. > :02:32.I'm joined now by Professor John Curtice, psephologist
:02:33. > :02:43.and professor of politics from Strathclyde University.
:02:44. > :02:49.It is looking very close at the moment. Undoubtably a tight race. We
:02:50. > :02:59.should bear in mind we have only had one poll that unambiguously puts one
:03:00. > :03:04.side ahead. At the moment we are getting rather more polls putting no
:03:05. > :03:11.ahead than yes ahead which suggests the balance of probabilities are
:03:12. > :03:17.that the no side are still ahead but not with a significantly. The other
:03:18. > :03:23.thing that is really odd, you look at some of the polls and there has
:03:24. > :03:36.been a huge shift from no to yes Auberon four weeks. Some other
:03:37. > :03:43.polling companies which were showing yes being quite close are detecting
:03:44. > :03:48.very little or no shift whatsoever. Yes. There has been a consistent
:03:49. > :03:52.discrepancy between the opinion polls and now they have largely
:03:53. > :03:58.converged. Virtually every single poster is now putting the yes side
:03:59. > :04:07.up or very close to the all-time high. There has not been a big swing
:04:08. > :04:12.and that is intriguing. One answer is that they were right all along or
:04:13. > :04:16.another technical one that if there has been some movement then some of
:04:17. > :04:20.the opinion polls which were rather more where exaggerating and those on
:04:21. > :04:28.the high side were underestimating. Evidently have converged something
:04:29. > :04:33.not short of 50/50 we have to accept we are in that kind of race. Is
:04:34. > :04:38.there a possibility, presumably there will be more polls before the
:04:39. > :04:47.day, aren't they are likely to be big shifts in the polls before the
:04:48. > :04:52.actual vote? It is possible. In 1972 in the general election there was a
:04:53. > :04:56.late swing which allowed Edward Heath to unexpectedly become prime
:04:57. > :05:05.minister. What we do know now is that although the yes side have made
:05:06. > :05:11.progress, there is no necessary momentum. In a sense, the last week
:05:12. > :05:17.has probably been a draw. Now remain narrowly ahead which is where they
:05:18. > :05:24.have been for quite a while. We do not know how many people are still
:05:25. > :05:34.undecided. One poll had 17%, another 10%.
:05:35. > :05:46.There are not many people who do not know what they are going to do.
:05:47. > :05:49.Depending on how you answer the question, the either tell you what
:05:50. > :06:03.their inclination is or the don't know. Turnout, both sides obviously
:06:04. > :06:08.will be trying to mobilise their people. There has been a view that
:06:09. > :06:18.the yes side are better organised. Does that make any difference unless
:06:19. > :06:21.it is much closer than it is? We are now sufficiently close that if you
:06:22. > :06:29.were in the Better Together campaign you would be worried that there is a
:06:30. > :06:35.stronger side for the yes side. We are beginning to talk about the
:06:36. > :06:43.figures being around 48, 40 94 yes. The ability to get the vote out on
:06:44. > :06:51.the day cooped be crucial. 49 four yes. Yes voters are just that bit
:06:52. > :06:57.more motivated. What is clear from the polls is that, the most
:06:58. > :07:08.important group in the referendum, the undecided people, the average in
:07:09. > :07:16.the opinion polls as being no. The yes side have to worry about if the
:07:17. > :07:21.turnout does increase, those people go to the polls. That will not be an
:07:22. > :07:26.advantage to them. Thank you very much. There will be questions later.
:07:27. > :07:31.You're watching Sunday Politics Scotland. Stay with us to see and
:07:32. > :07:34.hear the reaction from better together. Let's now go to the news.
:07:35. > :07:40.There has been international condemnation following the murder
:07:41. > :07:43.of David Haines, after the release of a video appearing to show the
:07:44. > :07:48.The 44-year-old aid worker was seized in Syria in 2013.
:07:49. > :07:53.He was being held by Islamic State militants, who have already killed
:07:54. > :07:58.David Cameron described Mr Haines' murder as an act of "pure evil".
:07:59. > :08:00.Alex Salmond said it was an "act of unspeakable barbarism".
:08:01. > :08:02.On this programme, Alex Salmond spoke about the importance of
:08:03. > :08:05.community cohesion, saying no part of Scotland's Muslim community was
:08:06. > :08:10.responsible for atrocities that were committed.
:08:11. > :08:11.It's the last weekend of campaigning
:08:12. > :08:13.in the independence referendum, and both sides will be
:08:14. > :08:17.Pro-independence supporters are trying to appeal to
:08:18. > :08:20.the older population with a message from Winnie Ewing,
:08:21. > :08:24.regarded by nationalists as a key figure in their movement.
:08:25. > :08:27.Meanwhile, those in Better Together are appealing to the those who still
:08:28. > :08:30.have to make up their minds before they vote on Thursday.
:08:31. > :08:33.A number of new opinion polls have been published, suggesting
:08:34. > :08:38.That's the news, now let's take a look at
:08:39. > :08:52.A dry story for most of us today but mixed fortunes in terms of sunshine.
:08:53. > :08:57.The best of it through the Northwest Highlands. The South West Breitling
:08:58. > :09:10.as well. For eastern Scotland more in the way of cloud. -- brightening.
:09:11. > :09:12.Sunshine in the north-west. Our next update is 6:50 p.m.. I will hand you
:09:13. > :09:19.back to Gordon. We know what is coming up in the
:09:20. > :09:23.Week Ahead. I'm joined by our guests Tom Gordon,
:09:24. > :09:25.political editor at the Herald, and by Alex Massie, freelance
:09:26. > :09:39.journalist and commentator. This is where I asked you where you
:09:40. > :09:47.think this is going. And you say it is too close to call. It reminds me
:09:48. > :09:54.of what was said about the film industry, no one knows. Both seem
:09:55. > :09:59.genuinely convinced that the numbers are on their side. Canvass returns
:10:00. > :10:05.for both the yes and no campaigns. I have spoken to both sides and the do
:10:06. > :10:10.seem... You say, you always say that. They say, no, our canvass
:10:11. > :10:18.returns show that we are going to win this. Somebody is going to look
:10:19. > :10:28.foolish on Friday morning. We have been told we have been to the doors,
:10:29. > :10:31.people are solid. You say to the yes side and they say we have been
:10:32. > :10:38.consistently ahead for the last ten days or so. We are talking about
:10:39. > :10:44.20,000 cantons runs a day. It does not look like a panto on either
:10:45. > :10:49.part. -- canvass returns. What do you make of it? It is possible that
:10:50. > :10:56.voters are lying to both campaigns. I agree with Tom that anything could
:10:57. > :11:04.happen on Thursday. Most people have a hunch I read up feeling. That
:11:05. > :11:09.tends to confirm the outcome that they would like to see happen, no
:11:10. > :11:14.voters have a quiet small conviction that everything will be all right in
:11:15. > :11:18.the end. Yes voters are convinced deep inside them that all these no
:11:19. > :11:22.voters are secret yes voters and they will have their conversion
:11:23. > :11:26.moment as they walk into the polling station and all will be well. The
:11:27. > :11:34.truth is that nobody really knows what will happen. What is your
:11:35. > :11:43.guess? Six months ago, in January I said it would be 53-47 now. I think
:11:44. > :11:48.it might still be a no vote. But it could be closer than that. Do you
:11:49. > :11:53.have a hunch? I have always thought it would be exceptionally close. It
:11:54. > :12:01.would be down to 1% or 2%, but I did not know who far. I think there is
:12:02. > :12:06.still time for warble. People going to the polling booth and thinking...
:12:07. > :12:18.You mean the polls were showing a yes" back. In their referendum in
:12:19. > :12:24.sovereign tree. -- sovereignty. In the last second, the no side
:12:25. > :12:30.recovered and the one x 50.6%. There is still scope for that. They have a
:12:31. > :12:35.lot of energetic supporters. What you think they need to do over the
:12:36. > :12:39.next few days? I do not think there is very much for them to do. They
:12:40. > :12:49.have exhausted everything they can do. I would expect more of the same,
:12:50. > :12:54.to be honest. We will have the yes campaign talking up team Scotland.
:12:55. > :12:59.They will see vote for your imagined future. We will have the no side
:13:00. > :13:03.focusing on the economic uncertainties of voting yes. It is
:13:04. > :13:08.too late to have any last-minute change of direction. I do not think
:13:09. > :13:14.we should expect any great surprises in the last 100 hours. You are
:13:15. > :13:17.nodding. I would agree wholeheartedly with that. Maybe a
:13:18. > :13:24.few months ago they could have said vote no and you can take the oil.
:13:25. > :13:29.Something dramatic like that. Did it surprise you? Last Sunday, George
:13:30. > :13:35.Osborne seem to be saying, there is this enormous new thing we are
:13:36. > :13:40.announcing. Then it became just a timetable for stuff we had not
:13:41. > :13:47.agreed upon. They should have said, they should have made a no for Devo
:13:48. > :13:52.Max. It was always crystal clear throughout the campaign that if you
:13:53. > :13:56.vote now you get this reviewed package of reforms. They cannot
:13:57. > :14:00.agree on a single tax and the still don't agree. We do not know the
:14:01. > :14:08.timetable even if we agree a bunch of powers on a no vote, we will not
:14:09. > :14:14.know when those will comment. The process takes eight years long. When
:14:15. > :14:22.these new powers come into effect is anyone's guess. It is not brilliant
:14:23. > :14:26.politics. It is in the way a cucumber does not look like a
:14:27. > :14:32.tomato. The Conservatives, the Strathclyde commission is the most
:14:33. > :14:36.auto of these. They did not think a new Scotland Bill would be required
:14:37. > :14:41.or would be ready in time for the first queen's speech after the next
:14:42. > :14:44.UK election. It will have to be that. We will have to leave it
:14:45. > :14:48.there. Thank you both very much indeed.
:14:49. > :14:53.I'll be back at the same time next week.