:00:36. > :00:41.Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria
:00:42. > :00:45.Later this week, David Cameron sets out his strategy
:00:46. > :00:55.George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts
:00:56. > :00:58.as he gears up for his spending review this week.
:00:59. > :01:02.We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.
:01:03. > :01:05.And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.
:01:06. > :01:12.With his MPs in mutinous mood, how can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?
:01:13. > :01:13.Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:
:01:14. > :01:16.As the UN backs a resolution on tackling IS,
:01:17. > :01:30.will the SNP and Labour support David Cameron's strategy here?
:01:31. > :01:33.And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political
:01:34. > :01:43.They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.
:01:44. > :01:46.Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting
:01:47. > :01:49.Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has
:01:50. > :01:52.embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in
:01:53. > :01:54.Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.
:01:55. > :01:57.The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem
:01:58. > :02:00.Later this week, David Cameron will present
:02:01. > :02:03.his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority
:02:04. > :02:11.Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,
:02:12. > :02:13.This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,
:02:14. > :02:16.our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater
:02:17. > :02:23.The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament
:02:24. > :02:28.for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly
:02:29. > :02:30.Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines
:02:31. > :02:46.Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the
:02:47. > :02:54.putting together, of majority for the Prime
:02:55. > :02:56.putting together, of majority for in Syria? They are being reasonably
:02:57. > :03:00.cautious that they are pretty in Syria? They are being reasonably
:03:01. > :03:03.confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have
:03:04. > :03:08.happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he
:03:09. > :03:12.was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy
:03:13. > :03:16.Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said
:03:17. > :03:21.he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they
:03:22. > :03:26.would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there
:03:27. > :03:31.was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by
:03:32. > :03:37.Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he
:03:38. > :03:43.possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs
:03:44. > :03:46.possibly will vote for this. DUP, if the Prime Minister set this
:03:47. > :03:52.out... It looks like the numbers are there. We did here this morning that
:03:53. > :03:57.the BBC reported the DUP with back the Prime Minister if what he had to
:03:58. > :04:02.say was credible. We are told the Tory rebels are about 15 and Labour
:04:03. > :04:05.rebels thinking of voting with the Government or abstaining could be as
:04:06. > :04:12.high as 50. What is your intelligence? A huge number, from
:04:13. > :04:17.very senior people as well. Actually the number of senior people leaving,
:04:18. > :04:22.exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think a challenging week would be an
:04:23. > :04:28.understatement. It is at a whole new level. There is only so much time
:04:29. > :04:33.you can buy with free votes. Jeremy Corbyn opposes the party policy.
:04:34. > :04:37.This time he would set his own policy but no 1 would come with him.
:04:38. > :04:40.How many times can you play that trick before people say this is a
:04:41. > :04:49.loose conglomeration of individuals and not a party? Do you think he
:04:50. > :04:54.would go for a free vote? Maria Eagle has just published a paper
:04:55. > :04:59.which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn has been making noises about this.
:05:00. > :05:05.Who is there to support, apart from John McDonnell, in this position? He
:05:06. > :05:09.is very isolated on this. The problem for the Prime Minister is,
:05:10. > :05:13.in a sense he gets what he wishes for. We begin joining others in
:05:14. > :05:19.bombing and things do not really changed in Syria. I do not think the
:05:20. > :05:22.House of Commons is the primary obstacle facing David Cameron. I
:05:23. > :05:26.think he will get the votes could not see much because of the case he
:05:27. > :05:33.will make later this week but because what happened in the last
:05:34. > :05:37.week. They focused on all necessary measures and use combat as a
:05:38. > :05:42.metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor, I think. The biggest problem is not
:05:43. > :05:44.the Parliamentary vote for David Cameron, it is the diplomatic
:05:45. > :05:49.struggle to agree with Russia exactly how we go about this. Russia
:05:50. > :05:54.are happy to bomb in Syria against Isil but they are not happy to do so
:05:55. > :05:57.in a way which, in their words, destroys the statehood of Syria
:05:58. > :06:04.which alludes to their traditional support for the existing Syrian
:06:05. > :06:08.state and basher al-Assad. The politics is far more challenging
:06:09. > :06:17.than the technical act of getting the votes together. That is the
:06:18. > :06:19.problem. What is the endgame? Transition can sometimes take a long
:06:20. > :06:24.time. A very long transition. On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne
:06:25. > :06:26.will announce the Government's Over the next five years, they
:06:27. > :06:30.will total ?4 trillion. But even to stay within that barely
:06:31. > :06:33.imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne will have to continue to cut
:06:34. > :06:35.departmental and welfare spending. Hence the mantra you will hear this
:06:36. > :06:41.week of "a country that lives within its means" - in other words more of
:06:42. > :06:45.a squeeze on many public services. The Chancellor wants government
:06:46. > :06:46.departments to find a further ?20 billion worth
:06:47. > :06:51.of savings between now and 2020. So, where could that money come
:06:52. > :06:54.from? Welcome to our virtual Treasury
:06:55. > :07:00.courtyard. Now, they don't have one of these
:07:01. > :07:02.in the real courtyard but it represents everything the
:07:03. > :07:07.Government is due to spend this year I'm going to start by highlighting
:07:08. > :07:15.a few of the most significant parts You can see the ?217 billion
:07:16. > :07:21.which goes on Social Security. That includes everything
:07:22. > :07:25.from jobseeker's allowance to There is the ?35 billion
:07:26. > :07:31.the UK is due to spend this year And George Osborne says that's
:07:32. > :07:38.a figure he is determined to bring Now,
:07:39. > :07:42.the focus of his statement is the money which goes on administering
:07:43. > :07:45.and delivering public services. Here it is,
:07:46. > :07:51.and you can see it's just under half We are going to delve into
:07:52. > :07:56.the budgets of a few of the most It is the NHS which accounts
:07:57. > :08:03.for the biggest chunk The Chancellor is not going to find
:08:04. > :08:09.any of his savings here because he has promised to increase
:08:10. > :08:12.NHS funding in England by ?10 The Government's also promised
:08:13. > :08:21.a real terms increase That is part of its commitment to
:08:22. > :08:27.meeting the Nato target of spending The Government is also committed to
:08:28. > :08:36.spending 0.7% of GDP on overseas aid - meaning that
:08:37. > :08:42.budget is also protected. So, the Chancellor is not going to
:08:43. > :08:45.find any of his ?20 billion of savings he says he needs to make
:08:46. > :08:51.from either health, defence or aid. So, where could it come from
:08:52. > :08:53.instead? What about
:08:54. > :08:56.from the education budget? That is a big part of what the
:08:57. > :09:00.state spends on public services. Here
:09:01. > :09:01.the Conservatives have promised a That means savings
:09:02. > :09:09.from here will be limited. Although the rest of the budget does
:09:10. > :09:13.not have any guaranteed protection. Here is the money that goes
:09:14. > :09:17.to English local authorities. This was one of the first
:09:18. > :09:20.departments to agree to big savings Let's look at the Home Office whose
:09:21. > :09:29.budget this year is ?10.6 billion. The single biggest thing
:09:30. > :09:32.Theresa May's department spends money on is the grant it gives to
:09:33. > :09:37.police forces in England and Wales. Although they also get some of their
:09:38. > :09:40.money from other sources including And some of the other departments
:09:41. > :09:48.which are going to have to find big savings over the next four years are
:09:49. > :09:57.the departments of business, But let's go back to that big part
:09:58. > :10:05.of government spending I mentioned Because
:10:06. > :10:07.of course that is where a lot of the focus has been in the weeks
:10:08. > :10:11.and months before this statement. Again here there is plenty
:10:12. > :10:13.the Chancellor will not touch. The state pension is
:10:14. > :10:16.a massive part of the budget. But the Government has
:10:17. > :10:19.a long-standing promise not to cut it along with various pensioner
:10:20. > :10:24.benefits. The other areas of big spending
:10:25. > :10:27.the Government has had to look to are housing benefit, disability
:10:28. > :10:35.benefits and incapacity benefits. And, you can see that big sum
:10:36. > :10:38.of money, ?30 billion, which is due to be spent
:10:39. > :10:44.on personal tax credits this year. So, the Chancellor faces some tricky
:10:45. > :10:54.trade-offs on Wednesday Paul Johnson from the Institute
:10:55. > :11:07.of Fiscal Studies has some ideas. Paul, welcome back to the programme.
:11:08. > :11:12.Let's start with this tricky question of tax credits. What is the
:11:13. > :11:18.Chancellor, in your view, most likely to do? He has two big
:11:19. > :11:23.choices. He can decide not to make any cuts, or much in the wake of
:11:24. > :11:28.cuts, next April. That is what all of the bus has been about, the cuts
:11:29. > :11:34.that will come in next April. -- the fuss. Most of the savings will come
:11:35. > :11:40.in the long run full he has also announced the new universal credit
:11:41. > :11:44.system will be much less generous than he was originally intending. In
:11:45. > :11:47.five or ten years time, even if he does not put the cut scene he was
:11:48. > :11:52.planning in April, he will still make much the same level of saving
:11:53. > :11:55.for them if he does that, his spending in 2016 on welfare benefits
:11:56. > :12:01.will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust his
:12:02. > :12:05.own welfare cap, the cap he has legislated, which assumes he will
:12:06. > :12:11.make those savings. That is one option. The other option is
:12:12. > :12:15.make those savings. That is one maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits
:12:16. > :12:18.that have some savings and maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits
:12:19. > :12:27.elsewhere in the welfare budget to make up the rest of the savings.
:12:28. > :12:27.elsewhere in the welfare budget to cost money, certainly in the short
:12:28. > :12:31.run. His deficit cost money, certainly in the short
:12:32. > :12:36.the ship is already in some trouble. He faces huge pressures to
:12:37. > :12:43.spend more on everything from health to Social Security. -- for this year
:12:44. > :12:43.is already in some trouble. The first thing to
:12:44. > :12:48.is already in some trouble. The surplus in 2020, there is a
:12:49. > :12:51.is already in some trouble. The amount of uncertainty about where we
:12:52. > :12:56.will be. Forecasting these things by view ad is an extreme you tricky and
:12:57. > :13:01.uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world moves as he
:13:02. > :13:05.expects over the next few years, he will require cuts of about 25% in
:13:06. > :13:09.those unprotected apartments we have just heard about the Home Office,
:13:10. > :13:16.local government, and so on, on top of the cuts that happened during the
:13:17. > :13:21.last parliament will Boyd -- involve really sharp cuts between 2010 and
:13:22. > :13:24.2020. They are big changes to the way which we will deliver local
:13:25. > :13:29.Gottman and the way we will be delivering police force, the way we
:13:30. > :13:33.will be delivering further education and so on. Those areas of government
:13:34. > :13:39.will change fundamentally over the decade. Let me get these right. When
:13:40. > :13:44.you add up all the cuts, those made in those about to happen, between
:13:45. > :13:56.20102020, major departments, the unprotected ones, will face cuts of
:13:57. > :14:00.up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is it doable? That is a good question.
:14:01. > :14:04.It may not turn up that badly if the economy does better than expected
:14:05. > :14:08.all the Chancellor finds some additional savings in Social
:14:09. > :14:14.Security, or he does not aim for the 10 million surplus and goes for a 1
:14:15. > :14:21.billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If he does go down that route, it will
:14:22. > :14:25.be more difficult than it was in the last parliament. If there were easy
:14:26. > :14:29.cuts to have made, they will have been made already. Do not forget one
:14:30. > :14:34.of the biggest bits of public spending goes on the pay of people
:14:35. > :14:38.who work in the public sector, the pay of nurses, teachers and civil
:14:39. > :14:42.servants and so on. That was quite easy to hold down over the last
:14:43. > :14:47.parliament. Pay in the private sector was doing so badly. We
:14:48. > :14:52.expect, almost economists now expect that pay in the private sector will
:14:53. > :14:59.rise well to be strongly. In that world it will be quite hard to hold
:15:00. > :15:01.down pay right across the public sector, as he said he would do back
:15:02. > :15:03.in the July budget. Joining me now Nigel Lawson,
:15:04. > :15:13.Margaret Thatcher's longest serving Welcome back to the programme. Thank
:15:14. > :15:16.you, I enjoyed your rant the other day. It was not a rant, it was a
:15:17. > :15:21.carefully scripted commentary but thank you for your remarks. Let me
:15:22. > :15:27.take an overall review on the Chancellor 's position. The
:15:28. > :15:34.borrowing figures for October were pretty bad, looks like he will
:15:35. > :15:40.overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is the austerity programme in trouble
:15:41. > :15:45.again? It is difficult, he has a difficult time because of these
:15:46. > :15:50.ridiculous protected programmes which should not exist. Aid is going
:15:51. > :15:57.up again and again, the Nobel Prize for economics has been given to an
:15:58. > :16:02.English economist, he is Scottish in fact, and one of his principal
:16:03. > :16:08.findings, he is a great expert on global poverty and one of his major
:16:09. > :16:11.findings is that overseas aid although well-intentioned does more
:16:12. > :16:18.harm than good. Yet that is going up and up. He has got a tough time but
:16:19. > :16:22.it can be done. When I was Chancellor I was able to balance the
:16:23. > :16:30.budget and get it into surplus and he has to do it as well. He has huge
:16:31. > :16:35.pressure on security, the police, the NHS, we were just talking about
:16:36. > :16:40.mitigating cuts on the tax credit side, these are all hard to resist
:16:41. > :16:45.in the current atmosphere. It is going to be very difficult and
:16:46. > :16:49.although I suspect it will mainly be cuts in savings in public spending I
:16:50. > :16:53.think he will have to do more on the tax side than he would have liked.
:16:54. > :16:59.There is some logic in that, for example it looks as if, Paul Johnson
:17:00. > :17:05.was seeing, or maybe it was you, but he is likely to some extent to defer
:17:06. > :17:11.the cutting of the tax credits. It's quite right to take a knife to the
:17:12. > :17:15.tax credits, they have grown far too much and are undesirable in their
:17:16. > :17:19.present size. But nonetheless what he did propose originally was a bit
:17:20. > :17:25.too much for some and therefore he has got to delay it a bit. But when
:17:26. > :17:29.he presented, he presented a package including raising income tax
:17:30. > :17:35.threshold. He could, as part of the package delay that a little bit and
:17:36. > :17:40.help on the tax side. The government has always said it will do all the
:17:41. > :17:44.heavy lifting, the heavy lifting will be done by cuts in spending
:17:45. > :17:49.rather than increasing taxes. Will he now have to look at increasing
:17:50. > :17:53.some taxes are hats at a time of low oil prices on fuel duty? I think
:17:54. > :18:02.that's a good suggestion and it is sensible to do that. But defer a
:18:03. > :18:07.reduction which he might find less... Yes but might he have to
:18:08. > :18:13.look at some tax rises? I think you should look at the fuel duty, yes.
:18:14. > :18:19.President Hollande has said that national security comes before
:18:20. > :18:25.deficit reduction, he has sidelined the fiscal pact he has with the rest
:18:26. > :18:29.of Europe. He plans a huge increase in security spending, 17,000 more
:18:30. > :18:34.police and border guards and other security personnel. Will the British
:18:35. > :18:38.be looking at George Osborne to do something similar next week?
:18:39. > :18:42.President Hollande has never been keen on deficit-reduction in the
:18:43. > :18:45.first place. It's not unconnected with the fact as well that the
:18:46. > :18:53.French economy, and I live in France, the French economy is in a
:18:54. > :18:55.bad way. We are doing much better. Security is important but the
:18:56. > :19:03.government has said very clearly that it is going to be keeping to
:19:04. > :19:07.the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence spending, something France is not
:19:08. > :19:12.doing even though it has considerable defence expenditure.
:19:13. > :19:16.The leaked letter from one of the most senior police officers to the
:19:17. > :19:20.Home Secretary says cuts to police budgets could reduce very
:19:21. > :19:25.significantly the ability to respond to a Paris style attack. The
:19:26. > :19:27.Chancellor is going to be under pressure to make security more
:19:28. > :19:30.important than deficit-reduction. pressure to make security more
:19:31. > :19:37.Certainly for the foreseeable future. Security is essential. It is
:19:38. > :19:40.vital. But I think the police are complaining a little bit too much.
:19:41. > :19:48.Look how much the police are spending now on chasing up often
:19:49. > :19:52.unsubstantiated accusations of historic sex abuse. That has got
:19:53. > :19:56.nothing to do with security. Those resources should be put where they
:19:57. > :20:01.need is. I think also what the police need is not just money, and
:20:02. > :20:05.the security services to, they need intelligence. I think it would make
:20:06. > :20:09.a lot of sense and what I would like to see the government doing is to
:20:10. > :20:18.expedite the passage of the investigatory Powers Bill which is
:20:19. > :20:24.long overdue and badly needed. In this climate you accept that cutting
:20:25. > :20:28.the top rate of income tax back to the 40% that you originally
:20:29. > :20:32.introduced, that that is politically impossible for the foreseeable
:20:33. > :20:37.future? It depends how far you can proceed. I would hope that during
:20:38. > :20:42.this parliament it can be done. It is politically difficult but there
:20:43. > :20:46.is no budgetary reason against it. When I cut it it increased revenue
:20:47. > :20:51.and it would do so again. The cap which George Osborne has already
:20:52. > :20:55.done in the last parliament from 50, 245 even though the Liberal
:20:56. > :21:02.Democrats he did it and it raised money and didn't cost anything. To
:21:03. > :21:06.be cutting police numbers, to be struggling to find money for the
:21:07. > :21:11.NHS, to be doing something for the working poor on tax credits, making
:21:12. > :21:17.life a bit more difficult for them but then to be cutting the top rate
:21:18. > :21:21.of the highest earners? That is why I don't think you can be doing it
:21:22. > :21:25.now that you were asking about the foreseeable future. You still think
:21:26. > :21:32.he can do it before the end of this Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how
:21:33. > :21:39.confident are you feeling about winning the referendum to withdraw?
:21:40. > :21:41.Nobody can call a referendum. It is difficult enough sometimes to call a
:21:42. > :21:47.general election and referendums are even harder to call. Logically I
:21:48. > :21:54.don't think he will do it. Logically David Cameron ought to be
:21:55. > :21:57.campaigning to leave because what he said at the beginning was he was
:21:58. > :22:04.dissatisfied with the European Union as it is. He wanted a fundamental
:22:05. > :22:11.reform to be enshrined in treaty change. Then stay in a reformed
:22:12. > :22:16.European Union. There is not going to be a reformed European Union.
:22:17. > :22:21.There will not be a treaty change. What the referendum is going to be
:22:22. > :22:24.about is if you want to stay in or leave and an reform European Union.
:22:25. > :22:29.So logically he ought to say leave and that is where I am because if it
:22:30. > :22:33.in it. So even if the primer Mr was in it. So even if the primer Mr was
:22:34. > :22:48.to get all his renegotiation demands such as we know them it would not
:22:49. > :22:51.change your mind on coming out? No, if he demanded a lot more and got
:22:52. > :22:54.it, major reforms which I have written about but I don't have time
:22:55. > :23:02.to go into no, I think it would be welcomed right across the European
:23:03. > :23:05.Union. This is not the view of the majority of the people, but we
:23:06. > :23:10.cannot tell the rest of the countries what to do, all we can say
:23:11. > :23:13.is what we are going to do. As we get closer to the referendum date,
:23:14. > :23:18.we don't know when it will be but when we get closer to it being
:23:19. > :23:23.announced, in terms of who seem to be the major figure who leads your
:23:24. > :23:33.side of the referendum campaign, if not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not
:23:34. > :23:40.Nigel Farage. I think the people who want to stay in have put up a
:23:41. > :23:46.businessman. Stewart draws. Not a particularly captivating
:23:47. > :23:50.businessman. Who will be the equivalent? I have no idea, but we
:23:51. > :23:58.will wait and see but it certainly won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an
:23:59. > :24:04.important player. Why not? Because Ukip has just one member of
:24:05. > :24:07.Parliament. We are a parliamentary democracy and the majority party is
:24:08. > :24:10.the Conservative Party. Nigel Lawson, thank you for being with us.
:24:11. > :24:13.Thank you. It's been a pretty torrid week
:24:14. > :24:15.for the Labour Party. Splits on everything
:24:16. > :24:18.from how to deal with terrorists to Trident, to Ken Livingstone,
:24:19. > :24:20.culminating in a bizarre row about whether or not the Shadow
:24:21. > :24:23.Chancellor wants to scrap MI5. John McDonnell insists Britain's
:24:24. > :24:25.spies are safe in his hands, though he did admit that
:24:26. > :24:28.his party has had a "rough week". It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn
:24:29. > :24:34.and his party grappled with issues In the wake of the Paris attacks,
:24:35. > :24:40.the Labour leader said he was not happy with the idea
:24:41. > :24:44.of police officers shooting to kill on British streets, which led to
:24:45. > :24:47.a very stormy party meeting, So, you tweeted, "please tell me it
:24:48. > :24:56.is not true that Jeremy just said, faced with Kalashnikov-wielding
:24:57. > :24:58.genocidal fascists, our security I,
:24:59. > :25:06.along with millions of Labour voters in this country, were very concerned
:25:07. > :25:09.by the interview that Jeremy gave. Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow
:25:10. > :25:15.Foreign Secretary, clarified matters very quickly and restated support
:25:16. > :25:17.for the use of lethal force and, support of the use of drone strikes,
:25:18. > :25:23.which Jeremy had also questioned. Jeremy himself, thankfully,
:25:24. > :25:25.a few hours later, also issued a clarification,
:25:26. > :25:28.and I'm very pleased he did. A lot of Labour voters will
:25:29. > :25:32.have been very relieved. Then came a row about the former
:25:33. > :25:38.Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, being appointed to co-chair
:25:39. > :25:41.the party's review of Trident, and the emergence of a letter from a
:25:42. > :25:44.campaign group calling for MI5 to be disbanded that the Shadow
:25:45. > :25:46.Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems And we found something else
:25:47. > :25:50.interesting that John This Parliamentary motion he
:25:51. > :25:57.proposed last October saying taxpayers who do not
:25:58. > :26:00.like war should be able to opt out The military is where
:26:01. > :26:06.the next battle may lie. If and
:26:07. > :26:11.when the Government brings forward plans to extend British air strikes
:26:12. > :26:14.from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs want to vote in favour, while
:26:15. > :26:17.their leader is a committed One Labour figure is speaking out
:26:18. > :26:23.for the first time. I think it would be wrong to suggest
:26:24. > :26:27.there is a settled view on the People will bring
:26:28. > :26:31.their own prejudices, which are from being instinctively
:26:32. > :26:33.for intervention, to having long The only thing I would ask of all
:26:34. > :26:39.of my colleagues is we look at this with an open mind,
:26:40. > :26:45.examining the facts rather than seeing how it matches our
:26:46. > :26:53.prejudices, and then reach a decision which is in the national
:26:54. > :26:55.interest. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn
:26:56. > :26:57.is able to do that? He has some very strongly held views
:26:58. > :27:01.that we should not get involved He may have to come to
:27:02. > :27:05.a point where he says, now that I'm not just a backbencher,
:27:06. > :27:09.I am actually the Leader of There is an element
:27:10. > :27:12.of national interest and that is For the young Corbynites at this
:27:13. > :27:17.event about Labour's economic policy The only reason we look bad to
:27:18. > :27:24.the general public, the only reason we do not look very strong at the
:27:25. > :27:28.moment, is that we are not united. If you have criticisms with
:27:29. > :27:31.the Leader, you should take it up It is not fitting to do these things
:27:32. > :27:35.in the press, criticising people. Do you think there is a plot
:27:36. > :27:39.against Jeremy Corbyn? If they are planning
:27:40. > :27:46.a plot they should probably think about the fact Jeremy was elected
:27:47. > :27:49.with 59.5% of the vote, I think. And we saw, from the beginning,
:27:50. > :27:56.he went from the least likely person to get
:27:57. > :28:00.in to the front runner, to the If people are plotting to get rid
:28:01. > :28:04.of him, they really should listen The party should be based
:28:05. > :28:08.around what the party members want. Unfortunately for them there will be
:28:09. > :28:10.another flash point On Tuesday there will be a vote
:28:11. > :28:15.in the House of Commons on Trident, Labour MPs have been
:28:16. > :28:19.instructed not to turn up. We understand a bunch of them,
:28:20. > :28:22.including some big names, are thinking about defying
:28:23. > :28:24.their Leader and voting It would be a largely symbolic vote
:28:25. > :28:32.but another visible symbol of I'm joined now from Doncaster
:28:33. > :28:41.by the Labour MP Caroline Flint - she was a minister under Tony Blair
:28:42. > :28:52.and Gordon Brown. Good morning, thank you for coming
:28:53. > :28:56.back on the programme. Let me begin with a general question, it's been a
:28:57. > :29:01.pretty terrible week for Labour, what is the mood now on the Labour
:29:02. > :29:05.backbenches among your colleagues? It's not been a great week for
:29:06. > :29:10.Labour, that is correct. I think part of the reason for that is we
:29:11. > :29:15.haven't looked certain and confident on some of the big issues the nation
:29:16. > :29:19.are worried about. What we have to have from the leadership, not just
:29:20. > :29:26.Jeremy but those around him, is certainty about what we think about
:29:27. > :29:30.what is happening in terms of the terrorist acts in Paris. But more
:29:31. > :29:34.widely about what the certainty we can offer as Labour Party about how
:29:35. > :29:39.we will support our national security. I think understandably
:29:40. > :29:43.there have been concerns, I don't think just on the backbenches of the
:29:44. > :29:48.Labour Party, but also amongst the Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but
:29:49. > :29:53.also more widely amongst the party membership as well. The news has
:29:54. > :29:59.been dominated for a week now by these terrible events in Paris. Has
:30:00. > :30:06.Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour response to these events? I think
:30:07. > :30:11.what is really important is that with leadership does come a massive
:30:12. > :30:17.responsibility to with certainty about a whole number
:30:18. > :30:21.of issues. But probably more than any other subject area if you like
:30:22. > :30:25.national security demands that. Because at a time where we are all
:30:26. > :30:29.reeling from what has happened in Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy
:30:30. > :30:32.Corbyn takes very, very seriously what has happened there and its
:30:33. > :30:39.implication for the security of British people as well and others
:30:40. > :30:42.allowing our pleas through the legal allowing our pleas through the legal
:30:43. > :30:45.framework which already exists to take action when they are presented
:30:46. > :30:49.with a terrorist in front of them but also on some of the other
:30:50. > :30:53.matters about how we should move forward in a united way with other
:30:54. > :30:55.matters about how we should move countries to tackle Isil, I think
:30:56. > :30:58.that certainty has been wanting and not helped, I have to say, when
:30:59. > :31:01.other members of the Shadow not helped, I have to say, when
:31:02. > :31:04.cannot speak with one voice about not helped, I have to say, when
:31:05. > :31:09.what the leader wants to do. I hope out of this week we will see some
:31:10. > :31:13.what the leader wants to do. I hope clarity and certainty coming forward
:31:14. > :31:17.and I think we already know, and I have heard more this morning, that
:31:18. > :31:21.David Cameron will come back to the House of Commons this week. We do
:31:22. > :31:26.need a plan, it can't just be about military action, it has to be more
:31:27. > :31:29.than that and I hope we can be in a position to opportunity going
:31:30. > :31:31.forward to tackle the threat of Isil which is the most major threat to
:31:32. > :31:36.security around the world that we have at the moment.
:31:37. > :31:43.If Mr Cameron comes form with that dashes forward with that kind of
:31:44. > :31:48.If Mr Cameron comes form with that plan, would you back military action
:31:49. > :31:55.in Syria? I believe there can be a case former literary action in
:31:56. > :31:58.Syria. We are facing the most profoundly barbaric group of
:31:59. > :32:01.Syria. We are facing the most terrorists I think I have ever
:32:02. > :32:06.realised in my lifetime or thought about. -- military action. Also the
:32:07. > :32:12.most resourced group of terrorists in the world. It is a different
:32:13. > :32:16.situation to what we faced a few years ago where I voted against
:32:17. > :32:23.military action when Cameron came back to Parliament to deal with
:32:24. > :32:29.Assad. We have in this country and this region, a number of dangerous
:32:30. > :32:35.groups. There are a number of -- there is a hierarchy of dangerous
:32:36. > :32:42.groups and Isil is the top of that list. If it can be about, yes, what
:32:43. > :32:50.sort of military action should take place, maybe the air strikes... Like
:32:51. > :32:53.we are doing in Iraq, within that a wider plan as to how we will deal
:32:54. > :32:58.with civil war in Syria and what else we need to do going forward.
:32:59. > :33:03.That is something I feel I could support. You say there is no doubt
:33:04. > :33:07.that the Labour leadership takes these matters seriously. Can I point
:33:08. > :33:15.out, just before the election this year, the Shadow Chancellor penned
:33:16. > :33:19.his name to a document supporting the abolition of MI5 and disarming
:33:20. > :33:24.the police? Last year he supported people opting out of having their
:33:25. > :33:29.taxes fund any kind of military activity. I do not think... I
:33:30. > :33:34.suspect a lot of people will not think that is taking these issues
:33:35. > :33:40.very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit to hold the second most important
:33:41. > :33:44.position within the Shadow Cabinet? One of the aspects of the leadership
:33:45. > :33:50.campaign over the summer was a sense that Jeremy was authentic and very
:33:51. > :33:55.clear about his views. And, you know, they may not be shared with
:33:56. > :34:00.everybody, I may have some different views to Jeremy on that. Part of his
:34:01. > :34:08.appeal was the authenticity, that it did not have any spin. He said he
:34:09. > :34:13.did not realise what he do when he held that the letter and seemed to
:34:14. > :34:17.support it. We had a leadership election. There was a massive surge
:34:18. > :34:23.in our membership and Jeremy had an overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you
:34:24. > :34:27.know, Jeremy and John McDonnell, have earned the right within that to
:34:28. > :34:32.put forward their views. What is clear to me, I am a moderate
:34:33. > :34:36.politician, but I am also a conviction politician. I do not say
:34:37. > :34:39.one thing to one group of people and another to another group of people.
:34:40. > :35:18.If the leadership Is it not a danger that voters will
:35:19. > :35:21.conclude that the Labour Party is not fit for purpose when it comes to
:35:22. > :35:26.national security, not just economic security? When it comes to
:35:27. > :35:32.leadership, as you know, Andrew, you may have your own views but you have
:35:33. > :35:37.to be open to actually other views as well and that is why we are
:35:38. > :35:42.having this debate. We are having that within our own party about what
:35:43. > :35:46.we do next regarding Israel and Syria. Jeremy Corbyn has an
:35:47. > :35:52.overwhelming mandate but with that comes responsibility of leadership
:35:53. > :35:56.to show that the ideas that he puts forward and the answers to these
:35:57. > :35:59.difficult questions whether it is on the economy or national security
:36:00. > :36:04.reaches out beyond the Parliamentary Labour Party and to that matter, the
:36:05. > :36:11.Labour Party and the British people and we the stand. -- Isil. Part of
:36:12. > :36:14.leadership is to win the confidence of the people and that has not just
:36:15. > :36:17.been the task of Jeremy Corbyn but it is the task of the Labour Party
:36:18. > :36:21.and he has to show that he can do that. I think he wants to do that
:36:22. > :36:26.and this morning they have said that they will have the full discussion,
:36:27. > :36:32.the Shadow Cabinet, there will be discussions with the Parliamentary
:36:33. > :36:35.Labour Party as well. Leadership requires that wider reaching
:36:36. > :36:39.responsibility beyond our own party boundaries. I do not surprise that
:36:40. > :36:44.in so many personal appointments, the Shadow Chancellor, John
:36:45. > :36:47.McDonnell, Ken Morgenstern now on defence and so on, that Mr Corbyn
:36:48. > :36:54.seems to have made no effort to reach out to the centre of your
:36:55. > :37:00.party, much less the right of it. ? -- Ken Livingstone. All party
:37:01. > :37:03.leaders and I have seen a few, sometimes around themselves not just
:37:04. > :37:09.with the elected politicians but also the paid staffers that are part
:37:10. > :37:12.of the group. For any party leader, whoever they are point, they must
:37:13. > :37:17.show that they are going to work anyway that is not just fashioned by
:37:18. > :37:24.their own particular background and experience and perhaps the own point
:37:25. > :37:26.of view, because there is a wider responsibility here. The Labour
:37:27. > :37:32.Party is not a pressure group, we exist to win elections in order to
:37:33. > :37:36.put our platform into practice in government and therefore, the people
:37:37. > :37:41.around Jeremy Corbyn that he has appointed, they must understand the
:37:42. > :37:44.responsibilities of that and to the wider Labour Party, some people
:37:45. > :37:48.within it who may not agree with him on everything, but at their heart,
:37:49. > :37:53.we all want to win the next election. Most importantly, 400,000
:37:54. > :37:57.people took part in the leadership election, amazing. We have had a
:37:58. > :38:01.groundswell of people join our party and many of whom want to be active
:38:02. > :38:06.in a very positive way and I welcome that. All right. But we must
:38:07. > :38:10.convince millions of people to support us in the next general
:38:11. > :38:14.election and in all of the general election is up to 2020. The Bidisha
:38:15. > :38:19.and their team have the responsibility to show that we can
:38:20. > :38:23.achieve that. Final question, as Mr Jeremy Corbyn continues in this week
:38:24. > :38:30.that he has begun, will he meet your party into the 2020 election, does
:38:31. > :38:34.he have any chance of winning? Look, we have had seven or eight weeks
:38:35. > :38:38.since the leadership election, it has been rocky along the way. I
:38:39. > :38:41.think we have made a significant impact when it came to the debate
:38:42. > :38:47.around tax credits for working people. Will he read your party into
:38:48. > :38:52.the next election? Last week was difficult. What Jeremy must do now
:38:53. > :38:56.is focus on how he read our party right now, that will determine our
:38:57. > :39:01.fortunes in the weeks and months, but also in 2020. -- lead our party.
:39:02. > :39:07.Thank you for joining us, Caroline Flint.
:39:08. > :39:12.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who believe us now for
:39:13. > :39:17.Sunday Politics Scotland. -- lead us now.
:39:18. > :39:19.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.
:39:20. > :39:23.David Cameron backed a successful UN Security Council resolution to
:39:24. > :39:25."redouble" action against Islamic State, but will the SNP and Labour
:39:26. > :39:32.With the prospect of joining Russia and others in air strikes on Syria,
:39:33. > :39:34.Holyrood is on course to get new tax powers,
:39:35. > :39:37.but can the Scottish Government and the UK Treasury agree on the
:39:38. > :39:50.David Cameron is to set out his strategy for Syria's future
:39:51. > :39:53.and tackling the Islamic State group in the region before MPs this week.
:39:54. > :39:55.The cross-party Foreign Affairs Committee said last
:39:56. > :39:57.month that British military action in Syria could not be extended
:39:58. > :40:03.MPs voted against UK military action against the Syrian Government
:40:04. > :40:07.in 2013, but did later approve British participation in air strikes
:40:08. > :40:15.The SNP has said the UN resolution passed on Friday isn't enough and
:40:16. > :40:28.The party's Deputy Leader, Stewart Hosie, can they be clear
:40:29. > :40:32.firstly on what your position is on this? Nicola Sturgeon in an
:40:33. > :40:38.interview with the BBC this week has said that she was prepared to listen
:40:39. > :40:44.to whatever David Cameron had to see in justification of British
:40:45. > :40:46.participation in Syria. Well, the position is extremely clear, the
:40:47. > :40:54.First Minister has said that she will listen... So, you have made up
:40:55. > :41:01.your mind? I will finish the first answer! We will listen to any cases
:41:02. > :41:06.made. We have been clear throughout this that there may potentially be a
:41:07. > :41:12.place for military action as part of a bigger solution, but we have been
:41:13. > :41:16.extremely clear indeed. We have to have a chapter seven UN resolution
:41:17. > :41:21.which actually permits military action so that it is legal. There
:41:22. > :41:25.has to be confirmation of the effectiveness of the military
:41:26. > :41:31.action, dropping a few bombs simply might not provide any help
:41:32. > :41:36.whatsoever, and essentially, there must be a post-conflict plan, so
:41:37. > :41:45.that we do not simply blunder in and create a bigger vacuum for Isil to
:41:46. > :41:49.fill. Since that, President Putin and President Obama have been in
:41:50. > :41:54.discussions. We have had the United outcome from the Vienna conference
:41:55. > :42:00.last weekend, interesting of which Iran signed up as a major player. We
:42:01. > :42:04.are sceptical that dropping a few more bombs will help at all. We have
:42:05. > :42:08.to precisely see what the terms of David Cameron's plan is and then
:42:09. > :42:12.take it from there once we have seen exactly what is on the table. There
:42:13. > :42:15.will not be a chapter seven resolution from the United Nations
:42:16. > :42:21.before David Cameron asks MPs to vote in favour of action in Serbia,
:42:22. > :42:30.so what are you telling us, unless David Cameron's plan, what he
:42:31. > :42:36.outlines his ICP can do is... David Cameron will see that Britain will
:42:37. > :42:41.put in a chapter seven resolution, you will not support it unless that
:42:42. > :42:47.happens? The position is that you have to have that. To gain from that
:42:48. > :42:51.it is legal and you have international support. That in
:42:52. > :42:59.itself is not Mrs Ali enough because we must conform that dropping more
:43:00. > :43:06.bombs is part of a plan, not just to tackle Isil, you know, this is a
:43:07. > :43:13.multifaceted Civil War. The point I make to you is that there is a UN
:43:14. > :43:18.resolution but it is not a chapter seven resolution. As far as I am
:43:19. > :43:20.aware, there is no plan for a chapter seven resolution, so when
:43:21. > :43:24.you have said that you are prepared to hear what David Cameron has to
:43:25. > :43:30.tell us, you are telling us that you will vote against because there will
:43:31. > :43:33.not be a chapter seven resolution? We do not know, you do not know and
:43:34. > :43:37.I do not know whether they Wallaby or not. So let us give the Prime
:43:38. > :43:41.Minister the courtesy of hearing what he has to tell us. As he
:43:42. > :43:46.confirms that there will be won and the plan is to seek one, that is
:43:47. > :43:50.important, it is the position to ensure that what happens is legal,
:43:51. > :43:55.for goodness sake. And in other aspects of what we have been talking
:43:56. > :43:59.about, to insure the effectiveness of the intervention itself actually
:44:00. > :44:03.helps and that we have a proper post-conflict plan so that we do not
:44:04. > :44:09.end up in the position in which we were in and Libya. When we spent
:44:10. > :44:17.twice on bombing -- twice as much on bombing as we did on rebuilding and
:44:18. > :44:21.anarchy followed. It did not the SNP support that action in Libya? Yes,
:44:22. > :44:25.absolutely, in hindsight it was the correct thing to do, but the whole
:44:26. > :44:31.point is in the absence of a man that you end up in a situation when
:44:32. > :44:35.frankly you can make matters worse. What would you reply B2 the point
:44:36. > :44:38.that David Cameron made in the House of Commons this week in response to
:44:39. > :44:44.Angus Robertson when he said that while he would like the UN
:44:45. > :44:49.resolution, he was not prepared to let his judgments on the security of
:44:50. > :44:56.the United Kingdom be hostage to decisions by China and by Russia,
:44:57. > :45:01.both of whom have been big backers of President Assad, and is that not
:45:02. > :45:05.the problem? If you have to have a chapter seven resolution, you are
:45:06. > :45:11.effectively saying that this Chinese Communist Party and President Putin
:45:12. > :45:15.are the deciding factors in the view of the SNP, not what it David
:45:16. > :45:21.Cameron or anyone else in Britain decides? I think that was deflection
:45:22. > :45:25.by the Prime Minister, to be brutally honest, precisely because
:45:26. > :45:31.there was agreement at the Vienna conference last week, precisely
:45:32. > :45:35.because there was a more general UN revolution accepted this week, I do
:45:36. > :45:40.not think... I think that is a good case of the Prime Minister chooses
:45:41. > :45:44.to go down that route, to seek a proper chapter seven resolution from
:45:45. > :45:48.the United Nations, I think to suggest that he has been held
:45:49. > :45:56.hostage by the beetle, that is an excuse for inaction... But your
:45:57. > :46:02.position that you have outlined in some detail, it amounts to saying
:46:03. > :46:08.that should China or Russia veto a chapter seven resolution, then you,
:46:09. > :46:11.the SNP, would say to the British Prime Minister, the fact that they
:46:12. > :46:17.have done that, deprive you of any reason to take military action in
:46:18. > :46:21.Syria. I think when we have seen military action taking place in the
:46:22. > :46:25.past in the absence of this, the illegal war in Iraq for example,
:46:26. > :46:28.when there was not unanimous international agreement on the
:46:29. > :46:34.course of action to be taken, that actually created a situation, a
:46:35. > :46:40.massive vacuum, which was filled by the likes of Isil of this world and
:46:41. > :46:46.what we are seeing is a civil war, huge destruction, a massive refugee
:46:47. > :46:52.crisis in Europe as well, without at least the certainty of a legal
:46:53. > :46:54.mandate from the UN, if we simply got a few more bombs along with all
:46:55. > :47:01.the countries that are currently bombing, is hard to see how that in
:47:02. > :47:05.itself helps the situation... But you still have not answered David
:47:06. > :47:09.Cameron's point that effectively and you have said this several times, is
:47:10. > :47:14.giving China and Russia a veto over what military action we might take
:47:15. > :47:19.together with the Americans and the French in Syria. If the Chinese
:47:20. > :47:24.decide to veto it, and the Russians as backers of President Assad might
:47:25. > :47:27.agree to it, you are telling us that the SNP will not side with the
:47:28. > :47:30.British and the Americans and the friends, we would rather go along
:47:31. > :47:37.with what the Russians and the Chinese have done? That is an odd
:47:38. > :47:45.argument given that Russia and France are already taking unilateral
:47:46. > :47:49.action insights. -- France. The idea that we would seek to oppose the
:47:50. > :47:55.United Nations approving action does strike me as a rather weak argument
:47:56. > :48:01.is that is the 1 that the Prime Minister chose to deploy. From our
:48:02. > :48:05.point of view, not just for the SNP, but for the whole of the UK, surely
:48:06. > :48:09.we have learned the mistakes of Iraq and that the very least we should
:48:10. > :48:12.not be blundering into another concept
:48:13. > :48:17.# Conflict dropping yet more bombs into a place that is awash with
:48:18. > :48:25.violence in the absence of the UN resolution that permits it. Thank
:48:26. > :48:30.you very much for joining us, Stewart Hosie. Thank you.
:48:31. > :48:33.Yesterday, in a speech in Bristol, Jeremy Corbyn warned of the dangers
:48:34. > :48:37.of using force, and that it was too early to say if Labour would back
:48:38. > :48:41.Joining us now from our Cardiff studio is Shadow Foreign Affairs
:48:42. > :48:48.Good morning. Stephen Doughty, I do not know if you heard him, but we
:48:49. > :48:52.have heard Stewart Hosie seeing that without a chapter seven resolution,
:48:53. > :48:58.that is one that specifically authorises military force, from the
:48:59. > :49:01.United Nations, the SNP will not back military action in Syria, is
:49:02. > :49:06.that a position that you agree with? The first thing to say is we
:49:07. > :49:08.do not have proposals on the table from David Cameron and the UK
:49:09. > :49:18.Government and the only way to approach such a serious matter is
:49:19. > :49:21.the deployment of force in Syria is to look at whatever proposals come
:49:22. > :49:25.forward. There have been significant elements from the UN in recent days
:49:26. > :49:29.and that is what we have been calling for, the UN resolution,
:49:30. > :49:33.talks of other members of the Security Council. That is what
:49:34. > :49:39.Jeremy Corbyn and others have set out. But until there is a proposal
:49:40. > :49:43.on the Tabor, we are talking about hypotheticals here. -- table. The
:49:44. > :49:47.SNP have made it clear that unless there is a chapter seven resolution,
:49:48. > :49:52.they will not support military action, that is not a hypothetical,
:49:53. > :49:54.that is asking if the Labour Party has the same position. I have
:49:55. > :49:59.listened to what Stewart Hosie said, it is good this week that the SNP
:50:00. > :50:02.have a range of views on this. It is only honest and admit that across
:50:03. > :50:13.Parliament and the Labour Party, there are a range of views on this
:50:14. > :50:16.complex situation. We are talking about a Civil War in Syria, we are
:50:17. > :50:19.talking a lot Daesh and Isis controlling last amounts of land. We
:50:20. > :50:25.are talking about innocent civilians getting caught up and the barbarous
:50:26. > :50:29.activities of Daesh as well. There are a range of views on that but we
:50:30. > :50:38.cannot comment until we have a proposal from the Government. The
:50:39. > :50:43.SNP would say that they have a very consistent view on this and they are
:50:44. > :50:47.not all over the place on this. Given that you have said there is a
:50:48. > :50:52.range of views in the Labour Party, will you allow your MPs a free vote
:50:53. > :50:56.on this? The Labour Party will have to have a discussion and an honest
:50:57. > :50:59.discussion regards whatever the Hamas government puts on the table.
:51:00. > :51:05.Hilary Benn has been clear that there are a series of tests that we
:51:06. > :51:09.would want to consider in terms of a company heads of strategy around any
:51:10. > :51:12.actions proposed, the legal basis, proportionality in relation to the
:51:13. > :51:17.actions we are already taking in Iraq and elsewhere and until we have
:51:18. > :51:20.a proposal on the table from the Government, it is difficult to
:51:21. > :51:23.protect the position of the front bench and what working arrangements
:51:24. > :51:28.there will be. I will take this matter extremely seriously as all
:51:29. > :51:35.MPs do. This is about omitting troops to military action, our
:51:36. > :51:39.military resources to action. It is what the Government wants to put
:51:40. > :51:44.forward. We cannot quite tell you what we we will vote yet as a
:51:45. > :51:47.result. So you are telling me that the Labour Party at the moment does
:51:48. > :51:51.not have any position on whether or not Britain should get involved
:51:52. > :51:56.militarily in Syria, and you appear to be digested it does not have any
:51:57. > :52:02.position on whether or not Labour MPs should be given a free vote or
:52:03. > :52:07.should be what to vote one way or another? That is not the case. That
:52:08. > :52:12.is what you have just told me. We have set out a series of tests and
:52:13. > :52:17.principles that we would want to see exam and after the proposal was put
:52:18. > :52:21.on the table by the Government. These are very live matters, we have
:52:22. > :52:26.seen a series of developments in recent days, not least the horrific
:52:27. > :52:35.attacks on people then Beirut, Ankara and Paris, and the growing
:52:36. > :52:42.threat in Belgium. This appears to be all surrounding Isil. There has
:52:43. > :52:46.been a UN resolution passed in the last few hours which calls on member
:52:47. > :52:50.states to use all necessary means, clearly this is a live debate. Until
:52:51. > :52:56.the Government comes forward with a clear statement and a legal basis
:52:57. > :52:59.for action, the nature of any action they are proposing, it is difficult
:53:00. > :53:03.to hypothesise about what position we would take on that. It is only
:53:04. > :53:06.right that these matters are concerned and looked at with the
:53:07. > :53:12.utmost seriousness and openness in light of what has been going on.
:53:13. > :53:15.Clearly as I am having difficulty understanding the policies and the
:53:16. > :53:19.procedures of the Labour Party, perhaps you can mighty me on this.
:53:20. > :53:22.The SNP will put forward this week emotion that- should not be renewed,
:53:23. > :53:28.am I correct in thinking that it latest great political tactic of the
:53:29. > :53:32.Labour Party is to tell your MPs not to Tom Pope to the debate in case
:53:33. > :53:36.they vote for a way that you do not agree with? Let us be clear. The SNP
:53:37. > :53:43.and other opposition parties often put forward motions which the Labour
:53:44. > :53:48.Party does not take a condition on where we vote one way or another,
:53:49. > :53:51.that is a common tactic. I understand the SNP have had
:53:52. > :53:54.difficulties themselves establishing... But is it true that
:53:55. > :54:02.you are asking your own members not to turn up? The motion has not been
:54:03. > :54:06.cleared yet. We understand the SNP do not support the removal of
:54:07. > :54:10.Trident rather than the renewal, so if they cannot get the workings of
:54:11. > :54:14.their own emotions correct, we are in a very clear situation where
:54:15. > :54:19.there are games being played. The SNP have had the attempts to put
:54:20. > :54:22.down opposition motions in the last calendar year on which they have
:54:23. > :54:26.used on Trident and one that they have used on the refugees, a serious
:54:27. > :54:30.matter that must be considered, but they cannot get their own motion
:54:31. > :54:35.right it is retro them to ask what our position is. Thank you for
:54:36. > :54:40.talking to us, Stephen Doherty. -- Stephen Doherty.
:54:41. > :54:42.Well, Syria is one of the threats facing
:54:43. > :54:45.us, but just how does a government assess its defence and future
:54:46. > :54:47.security priorities and adjust its policies and forces accordingly?
:54:48. > :54:49.Tomorrow sees the publication of the Strategic Defence
:54:50. > :54:51.Ministers will have to overcome a degree of scepticism
:54:52. > :54:54.as to whether this latest SDSR is genuinely "strategic" or if it
:54:55. > :54:56.matches Britain's global ambitions with the resources needed.
:54:57. > :54:59.Malcolm Chalmers is director of UK defence policy at the
:55:00. > :55:11.Royal United Services Institute and he joins us from our Leeds studio.
:55:12. > :55:20.Please excuse me for asking before I ask about the SDSR, before the
:55:21. > :55:25.bombing campaign in Syria has good been a substantial difference made?
:55:26. > :55:33.I think there has been a difference. The dip Matic political tract has
:55:34. > :55:39.been more important. There has been a positive impact in protecting the
:55:40. > :55:43.Syrian Kurds without their support, Syrian Kurd populations in northern
:55:44. > :55:47.Syria almost certainly would be overrun by Isil with all the
:55:48. > :55:54.consequences of that sort that has even positive. It has helped ensure
:55:55. > :55:57.that Isil populations in Iraq with the UK is bombing do not have the
:55:58. > :56:03.safe haven across the border in Syria from we are to have the week
:56:04. > :56:10.to resupply their forces. Even if we do get involved in UK military
:56:11. > :56:14.operations in Syria it can make some positive difference. Ultimately it
:56:15. > :56:18.is only part of a much wider picture. One of the things that
:56:19. > :56:23.puzzles me about the bombing campaign in Syria is all the French
:56:24. > :56:31.and Russians say they have in bombing oil installations because I
:56:32. > :56:35.guess makes money from huge convoys of tankers taking oil away from
:56:36. > :56:41.installations it controls. -- IS. This relatively campaign has going
:56:42. > :56:45.on for months now, why on earth when the oil installations which are
:56:46. > :56:50.physical things and arguably legitimate military targets, the
:56:51. > :56:58.first thing that US and its allies to code? Until recently the United
:56:59. > :57:02.States was a lot and to bomb oil facilities because of the potential
:57:03. > :57:08.for civilian casualties. The people involved in these facilities in Isil
:57:09. > :57:12.controlled territory are not themselves militaries are people try
:57:13. > :57:19.to make a living through this trade. When Americans bombed oil tankers
:57:20. > :57:22.the drop leaflets in advance to warn civilian drivers to get out of the
:57:23. > :57:29.week before the bombs were dropped but here are an increase in the
:57:30. > :57:34.likelihood of civilians being affected. He lives an increase in
:57:35. > :57:40.the US and other countries being more prepared to take the risk of
:57:41. > :57:42.civilian casualties. The defence review is becoming ever more
:57:43. > :57:49.increasingly tied in with what we have just been talking about. It is
:57:50. > :57:53.supposed to reorient Britain's Armed Forces to be able to deal precisely
:57:54. > :57:58.with this sort of threat. It is clear there will be an increase in
:57:59. > :58:05.money on six Unity agencies, he spoofs and the spies. The bit more
:58:06. > :58:08.money for military equipment. Is it measuring up to what it is supposed
:58:09. > :58:13.to do from what you are stealing? In many respects it is a steady issue
:58:14. > :58:19.go review. There are some issues like cyber, the intelligence
:58:20. > :58:23.agencies which have more money, other areas have less money, the
:58:24. > :58:27.deadly concern about whether the Foreign Office will be maintained
:58:28. > :58:32.even its importance in international security. What I think is a big
:58:33. > :58:37.change compared with expect nations is that only four or five months ago
:58:38. > :58:42.people were expecting the defence budget to get another they kept as
:58:43. > :58:46.many defence departments will be getting in on the spending review,
:58:47. > :58:52.education and social services and so on. The government has made it the
:58:53. > :59:01.day will get defensive real terms increase of 0.5% each year. The MOD
:59:02. > :59:03.will be able to avoid the big cuts and capabilities that people were
:59:04. > :59:11.feeling and make some modest new investments. -- fearing. It takes a
:59:12. > :59:18.big time to change plans and a lot of what we will have indeed 2024
:59:19. > :59:24.structure, the Army, navy, air force, will look similar to what we
:59:25. > :59:29.were predicting in 2010. It was symbolic when the aware reactions to
:59:30. > :59:34.the attacks in Paris by despatching symbolic when the aware reactions to
:59:35. > :59:37.an aircraft carrier stuffed with military aircraft in
:59:38. > :59:39.an aircraft carrier stuffed with of the Gulf. We would not be able to
:59:40. > :59:43.do that at the moment. We do not have an aircraft carrier and we do
:59:44. > :59:47.not have any lanes to have an aircraft carrier and we do
:59:48. > :59:51.aircraft carriers we do not have. have an aircraft carrier and we do
:59:52. > :59:57.That's right but I think it will change by the early part of next
:59:58. > :59:59.decade, perhaps 2022, because of the carriers now under construction. We
:00:00. > :00:03.will have carriers now under construction. We
:00:04. > :00:06.available at that time. It is important to remember the UK has
:00:07. > :00:11.been lunching and strikes against Iraq and could potentially do so
:00:12. > :00:18.against Syria from site was. We do not need an aircraft carrier to
:00:19. > :00:21.launch strikes in that region because we have a sovereign race
:00:22. > :00:26.area which no one can deny to us. because we have a sovereign race
:00:27. > :00:32.is something other allies do not have. Aircraft carriers can make a
:00:33. > :00:37.difference but make a difference in places like the fault was that you
:00:38. > :00:39.do not have land leases. One of the things the SNP has been making a
:00:40. > :00:47.fuss about now is the lack of things the SNP has been making a
:00:48. > :00:50.reconnaissance and submarine capability in Britain. I right in
:00:51. > :00:55.thinking that this note pretty much except that across the board and we
:00:56. > :00:59.will see a change and the introduction of some sort of
:01:00. > :01:05.maritime reconnaissance whether buying aircraft from America or
:01:06. > :01:07.something else? This has been one of the most hotly contested issues
:01:08. > :01:12.within government in this defence review. It is not about the
:01:13. > :01:18.principle of having a maritime control aircraft capability but what
:01:19. > :01:23.system to buy. The cost baby and and the capabilities of different art
:01:24. > :01:28.forms VED. I have not seen the defence that is coming out tomorrow.
:01:29. > :01:35.-- defence review. My gut feeling is we will end up with the cost
:01:36. > :01:39.competition that will be flown out to competitive tendering. That
:01:40. > :01:45.choice and the admits giving everyone the chance to make their
:01:46. > :01:50.case. The minus side is that it will delay the capability for one or two
:01:51. > :01:59.macro years longer. Those who wanted us to buy the best or most capable
:02:00. > :02:03.aircraft will be disappointed. Thank you for joining us this morning.
:02:04. > :02:06.Earlier this week, a House of Lords committee called for the Scotland
:02:07. > :02:09.Bill to be put on hold until issues over the funding package that
:02:10. > :02:12.The bill completed its journey through the House
:02:13. > :02:14.of Commons earlier this month and is now with the Lords.
:02:15. > :02:17.But agreement on the fiscal rules has yet to be reached
:02:18. > :02:20.between the Scottish Government and the UK Treasury, and that framework
:02:21. > :02:23.includes the adjustment which will have to be made to Scotland's block
:02:24. > :02:34.Our reporter Andrew Black has been finding out what it means.
:02:35. > :02:41.Nicola Sturgeon is in an enviable position. As Scottish First Minister
:02:42. > :02:48.she stands to have at heart disposal one of the world's most powerful
:02:49. > :02:53.devolved parliaments. Also we are told that is because Holyrood is on
:02:54. > :02:57.course to gain major new tax and welfare powers but right now that is
:02:58. > :03:04.being overshadowed by concern about whether it can be done fairly. At
:03:05. > :03:07.the moment Scotland was much ?30 billion annual budget is funded
:03:08. > :03:14.totally by the UK Treasury known as the Loch grant. The amount of cash
:03:15. > :03:19.which goes into the port is worked out by the Barnett formula. Once
:03:20. > :03:23.Scotland gets its own powers to raise tax money the amount of cash
:03:24. > :03:29.that comes north of the formula that order will be cut. The fiscal
:03:30. > :03:35.framework is going to be tricky. The key issue is, how is the grand
:03:36. > :03:37.adjusted in the second and subsequent years? That is the
:03:38. > :03:43.essence of the argument about the fiscal framework. The final solution
:03:44. > :03:48.is not supposed to route Scotland at a disadvantage order an advantage
:03:49. > :03:54.but some argue that it's a near impossible task. At the moment it
:03:55. > :03:57.will probably end up depending on the bargaining strength rather than
:03:58. > :04:05.on the principle of the different methods. So, it is pretty difficult
:04:06. > :04:10.to predict no and, you know, neither side will be entirely happy. One
:04:11. > :04:15.will probably be more unhappy than the other that it is not clear which
:04:16. > :04:22.we it will go and the is none that I would see is demonstrate bleak
:04:23. > :04:30.superior. -- demonstrate bleak superior for Scotland. Some might be
:04:31. > :04:36.advantageous and some more so. How could Scotland's block rank the
:04:37. > :04:44.reworked? Some may be linking it to Scotland performance. If they manage
:04:45. > :04:48.to grow tax revenues faster than in the rest of the UK it will be able
:04:49. > :04:54.to expand its budget properly relative to the rest of the UK. If
:04:55. > :04:58.it's tax revenues do not grow as fast then the likelihood is that the
:04:59. > :05:02.Scottish budget will contract a bit and then did our arguments about
:05:03. > :05:06.whether that should be adjusted for population, how it should be
:05:07. > :05:14.adjusted on a yearly basis and so on. What is likely to happen? A
:05:15. > :05:18.political compromise, it always is. There will be something in between
:05:19. > :05:21.and they will give it a name like the Barnett formula. What they will
:05:22. > :05:24.not do is go back to the drawing board as able have suggested and
:05:25. > :05:28.work out what the basis for sharing resources should be some say we
:05:29. > :05:34.should have a resource based upon need, what does Scotland need what
:05:35. > :05:39.does we'll need ended as an element that reflects need but that has been
:05:40. > :05:44.backed away from because they will ever find it easy to agree on what
:05:45. > :05:48.that form should be. We will get a messy fudge, that is for sure. The
:05:49. > :05:56.price of getting it wrong could be high. Economists and the Glasgow
:05:57. > :06:00.University rentable this week warned a bad deal could leave Scotland
:06:01. > :06:04.hundreds of millions of times worse off within a few years and this has
:06:05. > :06:09.prompted a call from the House of lords which is currently poring over
:06:10. > :06:13.the bill to deliver a new Holyrood powers body delay until the new
:06:14. > :06:17.fiscal framework can be agreed. Until we know what the new rules are
:06:18. > :06:21.we simply do not have a clue about how this will impact the government
:06:22. > :06:25.of Scotland, the government of the rest of the UK and of course, the
:06:26. > :06:29.people of the UK. The Scottish Government is not keen on that but
:06:30. > :06:35.at the same time says it will not with anything that does not deliver
:06:36. > :06:39.a fair deal. UK ministers say they are committed to exactly that and it
:06:40. > :06:41.does not seem as though the funding talks will stop going on for a while
:06:42. > :06:44.yet. Time to have a look back at
:06:45. > :06:48.the events of this week and preview Scotland correspondent, Libby
:06:49. > :07:11.Brooks, and by the political editor Libby Brooks, just on Syria and that
:07:12. > :07:17.position, am I right in saying that Sweetie Colby subordinate clauses
:07:18. > :07:22.out will the vote against? There did seem to be a lot of subordinate
:07:23. > :07:27.clauses in the. We had Nicola Sturgeon say earlier we would be
:07:28. > :07:37.listening to the case that was being made. They have two say that. Nicola
:07:38. > :07:42.Sturgeon as leader of the third largest party in the UK now, it is a
:07:43. > :07:46.do shift for them to be seen to listening to and responding to the
:07:47. > :07:49.public mood. Obviously public mood has changed significantly,
:07:50. > :07:56.particularly since the Paris attacks. There was public opinion
:07:57. > :08:02.polling. I am not say it is the public mood at the Daily Telegraph
:08:03. > :08:08.headline is that obviously the drums are beating as Britain prepares for
:08:09. > :08:13.war. There was a UN resolution on Friday night but it was not a
:08:14. > :08:17.chapter seven resolution which allows for conflict so I think they
:08:18. > :08:21.are looking for that almost inevitably, that would bring in a
:08:22. > :08:26.Russian veto so I do not see how it can happen. I think the SNP will not
:08:27. > :08:30.be supporting air strikes on Syria however they are almost certain to
:08:31. > :08:37.happen now, judging on what is going on elsewhere. Is that likely to be a
:08:38. > :08:39.popular position for them to take? Obviously being against the Iraq war
:08:40. > :08:50.did them an immense amount of good. I think public opinion has changed
:08:51. > :08:55.after the massacre in Paris. That does not mean that the decision over
:08:56. > :08:58.air strikes has changed, however. There was a clear vote at the SNP
:08:59. > :09:08.conference a few weeks ago against military action in Syria. Members of
:09:09. > :09:13.the SNP were against it. Air strikes can only be a useful weapon in a
:09:14. > :09:18.conflict against IDS if things have changed on the ground. That is a
:09:19. > :09:27.fair position for the SNP to take FA believe in that. Libby, do you agree
:09:28. > :09:32.with David that Britain will take part? Yes, it seems inevitable now.
:09:33. > :09:38.This vote will be incredibly important for David Cameron. He does
:09:39. > :09:43.not want the same humiliation that he had previously and he does not
:09:44. > :09:46.want just to win it, but when it significantly. It is interesting are
:09:47. > :09:50.talking about the mood of the public... When you see
:09:51. > :09:54.significantly, you mean that not only does he want to win over his
:09:55. > :10:00.own party members, a few of which seem to be shifting, then an odd
:10:01. > :10:04.sense, he also needs a whipping process to take place in the Labour
:10:05. > :10:11.Party? That is correct, talking about party met in the Labour Party,
:10:12. > :10:17.at the moment, it seems fairly shambolic. -- mood. But let us keep
:10:18. > :10:22.in mind that the party membership voted overwhelmingly for Jeremy
:10:23. > :10:27.Corbyn, they were highly supportive of his position against any military
:10:28. > :10:33.intervention. It struck me, David Clegg, listening to Stephen
:10:34. > :10:37.Doughty, and also Andrew Neil was speaking to Caroline Flint, I cannot
:10:38. > :10:41.remember a party being in such a situation where a fairly prominent
:10:42. > :10:43.people within the party and they all come on and tell you that there are
:10:44. > :10:46.different views and they have not made up their minds and it is not
:10:47. > :10:51.reasonable to ask them to make up their minds what they are in favour
:10:52. > :10:58.of, it seems a bit extraordinary, does it not? Yes, they are all at
:10:59. > :11:01.sea. There was concern from members of the Labour Party about a Jeremy
:11:02. > :11:06.Corbyn but their main concern was foreign policy. They were concerned
:11:07. > :11:12.his foreign policy views were wide of mainstream public opinion and the
:11:13. > :11:17.fact that only a few weeks after a major firearms there is has erupted
:11:18. > :11:20.in this way, it is particularly problematic for them and that is why
:11:21. > :11:24.I think we will see a significant number of Labour MPs voting along
:11:25. > :11:28.with the David Cameron when this is put on the table. Irrespective of
:11:29. > :11:49.what the Phillips tell them to do? Yes. -- of what the temp -- of what
:11:50. > :11:57.the whips tell them to do? Now about police cuts.
:11:58. > :12:01.Yes, let us not forget that every government department, they are
:12:02. > :12:06.fighting tooth and nail with each other and against these cuts, so it
:12:07. > :12:11.is perhaps not that surprising that the police and the security chiefs
:12:12. > :12:16.are making sure that the exploit what has happened in Paris and
:12:17. > :12:21.again, there is this public mood that we are talking about. The
:12:22. > :12:24.problem for George Osborne is because so many areas of public
:12:25. > :12:32.spending have been protected, the health budget, education, schools in
:12:33. > :12:36.England, the brunt of the cuts is bothering on a relatively small
:12:37. > :12:39.number of departments but therefore they are huge cuts for those
:12:40. > :12:45.departments and it might be difficult to say to the police, the
:12:46. > :12:51.situation has changed, forget about it, because he has nowhere else to
:12:52. > :12:54.go. Yes, the problem he has is that the political imperative in the week
:12:55. > :12:58.of the last few weeks and going forward is that they will have to do
:12:59. > :13:05.something to make it look as though they are investing in security, that
:13:06. > :13:07.they are investing in military with the strategic defence review
:13:08. > :13:17.tomorrow, but they do not have any money they do to do anything.
:13:18. > :13:23.And he respond to the House of Lords on tax credits. That is correct, he
:13:24. > :13:26.does not have the money to do these things. Certainly not with any
:13:27. > :13:32.fiscal framework that he has set out. Libby, he does has a fiscal
:13:33. > :13:38.framework which is extremely flexible if you want it to be! Yes,
:13:39. > :13:41.it seems to be! It is an extraordinary model what has
:13:42. > :13:50.happened with the Scotland Bill at the moment. -- muddle.
:13:51. > :13:56.I am sorry, we will have to be that they are. That is all for this week.
:13:57. > :14:02.Until next week, from everyone on the programme, goodbye.