:00:37. > :00:48.migrants, as the Port of Calais is forced to close overnight
:00:49. > :00:52.after migrants attempted to force their way onto a Channel ferry.
:00:53. > :00:59.David Cameron appears increasingly confident he'll bag a deal on EU
:01:00. > :01:05.In the first of three Sunday Politics debates,
:01:06. > :01:08.the leave and remain campaigns go head-to-head on immigration.
:01:09. > :01:13.And speaking exclusively to this programme, Ed Miliband's former
:01:14. > :01:17.pollster Deborah Mattinson criticises Labour's official report
:01:18. > :01:20.into why the party lost the general election for failing to face up
:01:21. > :01:27.I think it was a whitewash and a massive missed opportunity.
:01:28. > :01:28.Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.
:01:29. > :01:30.Is time being called on the government's
:01:31. > :01:34.The independent poverty tsar calls for it to be scrapped and councils
:01:35. > :01:59.weigh up their options over cuts to services.
:02:00. > :02:05.So, the Port of Calais was forced to close for a while yesterday
:02:06. > :02:09.after migrants managed to breach security and board a ferry.
:02:10. > :02:11.Amateur footage captured the moment a group managed to break
:02:12. > :02:13.through security fences and head towards the P ferry.
:02:14. > :02:16.The incident happened during a protest at the port,
:02:17. > :02:20.The head of the Road Haulage Association here in Britain has
:02:21. > :02:22.renewed demands for the French military to intervene.
:02:23. > :02:24.As it happens, the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn,
:02:25. > :02:26.was in northern France yesterday, visiting the migrant camps
:02:27. > :02:31.While he was there, he reiterated his calls
:02:32. > :02:37.for the British Government to do more to help migrants.
:02:38. > :02:40.I talk to people all over the country and not everyone is that
:02:41. > :02:43.cold-hearted, not everyone else has a stony heart.
:02:44. > :02:47.They are prepared to reach out, and I think we need a response
:02:48. > :02:52.And indeed Germany has done an enormous amount,
:02:53. > :02:55.other countries have done varying amounts,
:02:56. > :02:58.and I think we should be part of helping
:02:59. > :03:01.to bring a European-wide support to people, and that's what I'm
:03:02. > :03:15.Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Beth, what we make of the story, the government
:03:16. > :03:21.will allow unaccompanied children refugees, already in Europe, to come
:03:22. > :03:24.into Britain? Some of my government sources have suggested that is not
:03:25. > :03:28.what David Cameron would like to do, if you think about how he dealt with
:03:29. > :03:32.the crisis in August, he said we will take some Syrian refugees but
:03:33. > :03:36.we will take them from the camps in Syria and around Syria, we will not
:03:37. > :03:41.take them from Calais, because he thinks this is a push factor and it
:03:42. > :03:46.makes people come over. What the government might end up doing, they
:03:47. > :03:50.might agree to take refugee children unaccompanied, but only from Syria
:03:51. > :03:58.and the Middle East, not from Calais. What about the kids who have
:03:59. > :04:03.made it here? They could be bad way. Nick? The signals on government,
:04:04. > :04:08.they have not made any decisions yet and the announcement is not
:04:09. > :04:11.imminent, but Beth makes a very important point, the Prime Minister
:04:12. > :04:14.said you do not want to encourage people to make that journey,
:04:15. > :04:18.therefore the instinct is to take people from the neighbouring
:04:19. > :04:22.countries. Apart from unaccompanied kids, they have come across in
:04:23. > :04:27.terrible conditions, and they are in Calais and Dunkirk. The call to take
:04:28. > :04:31.these children, from that report, that says that is a fair proportion
:04:32. > :04:36.of the 26,000 unaccompanied children that have come to Europe. The
:04:37. > :04:40.figures in that report are terrifying, in 2014, of the 13,000
:04:41. > :04:46.unaccompanied children that ended up in Italy, 3000 went missing, and of
:04:47. > :04:50.the African children that went to Italy, half of them had been subject
:04:51. > :04:56.to some form of sexual abuse, it is the most horrific figures. That 3000
:04:57. > :05:01.figure, endorsed by Jeremy Corbyn, also endorsed by the cross-party
:05:02. > :05:03.International Development Select Committee, said there is edible
:05:04. > :05:10.pressure on the Prime Minister on this one. -- formidable. The
:05:11. > :05:14.humanitarian case has been strongly but by Jeremy Corbyn and others, but
:05:15. > :05:21.it is marginal. 3000 children, that would be great for them, but 37,000
:05:22. > :05:25.migrants have come to Greece in January alone, and the mud has not
:05:26. > :05:32.even ended, ten times the number that came in last January -- the
:05:33. > :05:36.month. The problem is getting bigger and bigger, and the response has
:05:37. > :05:43.been wholly inadequate. It has, it looks marginal, but that is about as
:05:44. > :05:48.much as you can expect, until there is EU wide agreement about how to
:05:49. > :05:51.distribute what you might call the burden of the influx, but there is
:05:52. > :05:54.nothing close to that agreement and there's not even a deal between the
:05:55. > :06:00.EU and Turkey about ceiling borders and dealing with human traffickers
:06:01. > :06:05.let alone a deal within the EU about which country bears how much of the
:06:06. > :06:09.burden. Until then, you just have these improvised solutions, 3000
:06:10. > :06:12.here, France taking a bit more, and there is no certainty that the
:06:13. > :06:17.unaccompanied children are overwhelmingly Syrian, there is the
:06:18. > :06:20.suspicion that Syrians travel as complete families and the
:06:21. > :06:26.unaccompanied children are disproportionately from Somalia, for
:06:27. > :06:30.example, similarly distress, but not the problem that they think they are
:06:31. > :06:34.dealing with. This plays into the referendum question, there is the
:06:35. > :06:38.nervousness in the in campaign, that a referendum in September, after a
:06:39. > :06:42.summer of large sums of migrants coming in, kids or otherwise, would
:06:43. > :06:46.affect the result one way or another. That is a big story, and we
:06:47. > :06:49.will come back to that at the end of the show.
:06:50. > :06:51.Last week, the long-awaited autopsy into Labour's defeat at the general
:06:52. > :06:56.The report by Margaret Beckett concluded that Ed Miliband wasn't
:06:57. > :07:00.judged to be as strong a leader as David Cameron, and that Labour
:07:01. > :07:02.had failed to shake off the myth that Labour was responsible
:07:03. > :07:05.But parallel research was also commissioned to inform
:07:06. > :07:07.the Beckett Report, and despite being completed in July,
:07:08. > :07:12.The former Labour pollster Deborah Mattinson carried out this
:07:13. > :07:15.research, and has spoken exclusively to the Sunday Politics.
:07:16. > :07:25.We are saying the Conservatives are the largest party.
:07:26. > :07:28.We all know what happened on election night.
:07:29. > :07:32.Instead of a hung parliament, David Cameron walked
:07:33. > :07:34.back into Downing Street with a majority of 12.
:07:35. > :07:37.Labour got it wrong, as well, suffering a net loss of 26
:07:38. > :07:42.Friends, this is not the speech I wanted to give today.
:07:43. > :07:45.Ed Miliband resigned within hours, but
:07:46. > :07:48.it has taken eight and a half months for the party
:07:49. > :07:52.to publish its own inquiry into what went wrong.
:07:53. > :07:56.Margaret Beckett's report is called Learning The Lessons From Defeat.
:07:57. > :08:04.It doesn't, says one pollster, who has worked for several former
:08:05. > :08:07.Just a few weeks after the election defeat, Deborah Mattinson
:08:08. > :08:10.was commissioned by the acting leader
:08:11. > :08:12.Harriet Harman to research why Labour lost.
:08:13. > :08:15.She says the evidence was meant to feed into the Beckett
:08:16. > :08:20.I did brief Margaret Beckett so I was somewhat
:08:21. > :08:24.disappointed not to see some of that reflected back.
:08:25. > :08:26.Yes, I think she picked up on the economy but there
:08:27. > :08:30.was actually no analysis, it is reduced effectively to one
:08:31. > :08:40.And there is a lot of quite defensive stuff about
:08:41. > :08:42.the fact this does not necessarily mean that anti-austerity is wrong.
:08:43. > :08:45."Of course we had a great business strategy, what a pity the voters
:08:46. > :08:50."That was probably the fault of the media".
:08:51. > :08:53.Quite apologetic, lots of defensive stuff
:08:54. > :08:56.in there, but nothing that actually really shone a light on what had
:08:57. > :09:00.Do you accept that when Labour was last in power it
:09:01. > :09:05.No, I don't, and I know you might not agree with that
:09:06. > :09:13.Margaret Beckett's report acknowledges that Labour failed
:09:14. > :09:16.to shake what she describes as the myth
:09:17. > :09:21.that the party caused the financial crisis.
:09:22. > :09:25.Deborah Mattinson says that for people in her focus groups
:09:26. > :09:30.Frankly, they did not trust Labour to manage the economy
:09:31. > :09:33.effectively, they were very concerned about that.
:09:34. > :09:43.In their minds, they are seeing a conflation
:09:44. > :09:45.rightly or wrongly, and their sense that
:09:46. > :09:47.Labour would waste money, their money, and run the economy
:09:48. > :09:55.Voters could not see him as Prime Minister.
:09:56. > :09:59.But Margaret Beckett concluded that Ed
:10:00. > :10:01.Miliband faced an exceptionally vitriolic and personal attack
:10:02. > :10:07.People looked at Ed Miliband and did not see him
:10:08. > :10:12.And if you look at every election since the 70s,
:10:13. > :10:15.what we see, the party that has the leader with the best ratings
:10:16. > :10:19.is the party that wins, there is no exception to that.
:10:20. > :10:22.I get it, that people weren't prejudiced against immigration,
:10:23. > :10:28.I get it and I understand the need to change.
:10:29. > :10:30.The Beckett Report acknowledges that Labour did not quite get it
:10:31. > :10:35.on issues like immigration and benefits, and that the fear
:10:36. > :10:45.of the SNP propping up a minority government scared off many voters.
:10:46. > :10:54.But Deborah Mattinson says Labour was losing support in Scotland well
:10:55. > :10:56.before the independence referendum and the surge in SNP support.
:10:57. > :10:58.Put simply, she said voters did not feel
:10:59. > :11:05.that Labour was on their side, and the party still does not
:11:06. > :11:13.I feel very concerned that the lessons
:11:14. > :11:16.will be learned and I can't see how they will be learned,
:11:17. > :11:18.because that was the vehicle, that was the moment,
:11:19. > :11:21.and if this report does not address those issues then I'm not
:11:22. > :11:25.No political party has a divine right to exist and unless Labour
:11:26. > :11:27.really listens to those voters, that it must persuade,
:11:28. > :11:30.it stands no chance of winning the next election.
:11:31. > :11:32.And we've been joined by the former Shadow Cabinet minister
:11:33. > :11:35.Michael Dugher - you might remember he was sacked by Jeremy Corbyn
:11:36. > :11:43.Deborah Mattinson says the better report is a whitewash, is she right?
:11:44. > :11:48.-- Beckett Report. That is a bit harsh, does it have all the answers,
:11:49. > :11:53.though, of course not, and I think Deborah Mattinson make some very
:11:54. > :11:56.fair observations in that piece, but what Margaret concludes in her
:11:57. > :11:59.report, it is not a massive shock to those of us that were knocking on
:12:00. > :12:03.doors last May and have thought long and hard about it since, we were not
:12:04. > :12:06.trusted enough on the economy, and that was the big issue, but also on
:12:07. > :12:11.immigration and welfare, we were seen as out of touch, and also
:12:12. > :12:14.leadership being the most important thing in any race. She makes those
:12:15. > :12:19.conclusions, in the report, and I think the key thing now, is to
:12:20. > :12:23.listen to the issues that she raises, but also listen to Debra and
:12:24. > :12:27.many others who have made a contribution since the report came
:12:28. > :12:33.out. We have got to face up to the difficult issues as to why we lost,
:12:34. > :12:36.if we are going to win again. Voters found Ed Miliband the
:12:37. > :12:40.personification of the Labour brand, that was the problem, well-meaning
:12:41. > :12:46.but ineffectual. I'm likely to deliver -- and likely to deliver on
:12:47. > :12:50.promises. Did you detect that at the time? I was very close to Ed
:12:51. > :12:54.Miliband and I gave him some advice, some of which he took and some of
:12:55. > :12:58.which he didn't. I wanted him to be a success, I saw him in private and
:12:59. > :13:03.you have strong he did beat, and often he got very unfair coverage in
:13:04. > :13:08.the media and often he did not do himself justice in his performances
:13:09. > :13:14.-- I saw him in private and how strong he did beat. The real lesson
:13:15. > :13:17.here, for any lead at the Labour Party can you have got to play to
:13:18. > :13:23.your strengths and you have got a fundamentally address your perceived
:13:24. > :13:28.weaknesses. The private polling showed the Tories were in the late,
:13:29. > :13:33.was that not a warning that things were going wrong? -- in the lead.
:13:34. > :13:40.I'm not sure how much private polling I was shown. You did not see
:13:41. > :13:43.this? The year before the election, I was appointed Shadow Secretary of
:13:44. > :13:49.State for Transport, I was not so much part of the central operations
:13:50. > :13:52.and I did not see private polling. Many of us thought that we were
:13:53. > :13:56.getting difficult conversations on the doorstep, but we were told
:13:57. > :13:59.consistently, including by the pollsters, that we were neck and
:14:00. > :14:03.neck and there was a perception that we were doing better in the
:14:04. > :14:07.marginals, as well. That turned out to be catastrophically wrong, but
:14:08. > :14:10.one of the things that is not in Margaret's report is about the
:14:11. > :14:14.organisational lessons, that does speak, if you have a million
:14:15. > :14:19.conversations, what are you doing with the data? I remember in the
:14:20. > :14:24.last two days of the campaign, I was sent to Derbyshire, Amber Valley,
:14:25. > :14:28.and in Yorkshire, to Rothwell, but I should have been sent to Morley to
:14:29. > :14:35.help Ed Balls, and Derby North to help Chris Wood this. The campaign
:14:36. > :14:39.has got to base what they do on the information, and in 2010 we took
:14:40. > :14:42.very hard decisions, six months away from polling day, based on the
:14:43. > :14:44.information we had about prioritise in resources, but are not sure that
:14:45. > :14:58.happens this time. -- I'm not sure. Deborah Mattinson looks at the
:14:59. > :15:06.boundary changes before the next election, and she thinks the Beckett
:15:07. > :15:10.Report made a failure to confront why you lost enough. Her conclusion
:15:11. > :15:17.is this, Labour's future is in profound jeopardy - is it? I think
:15:18. > :15:21.we have a massive challenge at the next election. I don't think any
:15:22. > :15:26.political party has a right to be successful in the future. I am an
:15:27. > :15:31.optimistic person. Labour, when we have got our act together, when we
:15:32. > :15:36.have been in touch with the public we have shown we can win. Is
:15:37. > :15:44.Labour's continued existence a question mark? We have got to start
:15:45. > :15:54.getting in touch with the public. One thing the report did slightly
:15:55. > :16:03.skirt around, the question over politics as an identity. People like
:16:04. > :16:07.myself have been banging on about this, not just in the weeks before
:16:08. > :16:12.the election but for months and years before, and we need to face up
:16:13. > :16:18.to that. No political party has a right to exist, but I think if
:16:19. > :16:23.Labour gets our act together, if we stop picking fights with ourselves,
:16:24. > :16:29.if we face up to the difficult issues in this report and elsewhere,
:16:30. > :16:35.we can be successful in the future. In what ways, as things stand at the
:16:36. > :16:39.moment, what ways will Labour be better, in better shape, under
:16:40. > :16:45.Jeremy Corbyn heading into the 2020 election than it was in the 2015
:16:46. > :16:50.election? What is one of the main conclusions from the Beckett Report,
:16:51. > :16:57.it said we did make some gains, 1.5%, but we were stacking up area
:16:58. > :17:03.-- support in areas where we were already strong. If they think you
:17:04. > :17:07.are out of touch on immigration and welfare, you had better start
:17:08. > :17:11.talking about immigration and welfare. Jeremy Corbyn seems to want
:17:12. > :17:19.almost no limit on immigration, it is hard to detect if he would have
:17:20. > :17:28.any limits, and he is rather against welfare reforms. I'm not sure that
:17:29. > :17:31.is an election winning strategy. On immigration, I made this point to
:17:32. > :17:37.him, you have got to understand this is the second biggest issue
:17:38. > :17:43.nationally, it is the biggest issue in many constituencies including
:17:44. > :17:49.mine, and I said that many of the answers are about stopping pressure
:17:50. > :17:53.on wages and conditions. There are good centre-left solutions to these
:17:54. > :18:00.problems, about Europe dividing more help for communities facing these
:18:01. > :18:05.changes. I made the point to him, on welfare he is right to say we should
:18:06. > :18:09.be standing up to help the most vulnerable, but in my experience you
:18:10. > :18:13.only get heard on those issues if the public think you are for real in
:18:14. > :18:17.terms of wanting to be tough on people who are frankly making
:18:18. > :18:22.decisions not to go into work so you have got to get the balance right.
:18:23. > :18:27.Do you accept, given his huge support among party members, that
:18:28. > :18:34.Jeremy Corbyn will lead you into the next election? He faces a big test
:18:35. > :18:41.in May. We have seen the polls and the ratings, any big test is a real
:18:42. > :18:45.election. He faces a big test because he was clear that a
:18:46. > :18:49.left-wing agenda is the key to transforming our fortunes in
:18:50. > :18:53.Scotland, I hope he's right. We need to win in London but we have got to
:18:54. > :18:59.show we can make big gains in the rest of London as well and we have
:19:00. > :19:03.got to hold onto power in Wales as well. But even if he fails these
:19:04. > :19:09.tests, do you think there will be an attempt to remove him? We have got
:19:10. > :19:15.to get behind Jeremy and he has got to show us that he can deliver and
:19:16. > :19:19.turn things around. We need to get behind him. People are very clear
:19:20. > :19:29.about what Jeremy stands for. He has achieved remarkable cut throughs.
:19:30. > :19:33.Over the next few months we will see more of that so he has got to be
:19:34. > :19:36.given a chance because he has a huge mandate by the party members but he
:19:37. > :19:41.has got to show he can turn that into real support from the public.
:19:42. > :19:46.That means also winning the support of people who voted Conservative
:19:47. > :19:51.last time. It is not an easy challenge, we are behind him in that
:19:52. > :19:54.but he has got to show he can learn the lessons that Margaret Beckett
:19:55. > :19:57.has talked about and Debra and others as well. We have got to stop
:19:58. > :20:00.it there, thank you. The hole Labour is in is deepest
:20:01. > :20:03.in Scotland, where the once-mighty party now holds just
:20:04. > :20:04.one Westminster seat. If Jeremy Corbyn is to win
:20:05. > :20:07.the general election in 2020, he needs to claw back
:20:08. > :20:09.support from the SNP, and the first test of his appeal
:20:10. > :20:12.north of the border is coming up fast in elections to
:20:13. > :20:15.the Scottish parliament in May. Speaking to Andrew Marr this
:20:16. > :20:18.morning, the leader of the SNP took aim at Mr Corbyn, criticising
:20:19. > :20:21.a plan he's floated to keep Britain's Trident submarines
:20:22. > :20:25.minus their nuclear warheads. I wonder what you made
:20:26. > :20:27.of Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that you could keep the Trident
:20:28. > :20:30.submarines, therefore keep the jobs in Scotland, but not have
:20:31. > :20:33.nuclear missiles on them. I think it was ridiculous
:20:34. > :20:36.and I think it's a sign of just how tortured these debates are becoming
:20:37. > :20:39.within the Labour Party. On Trident, I agree
:20:40. > :20:41.with Jeremy Corbyn. I'm not in favour of the renewal
:20:42. > :20:45.of Trident, and we might have a vote on that in the House of Commons
:20:46. > :20:49.sooner rather than later. I think the real challenge
:20:50. > :20:56.for Jeremy Corbyn is, can he get his party
:20:57. > :20:59.into the position he wants it to be in so we can have any
:21:00. > :21:01.chance at all of stopping For Labour to sit on the fence
:21:02. > :21:06.on this issue or have a free vote on this issue will leave them
:21:07. > :21:10.without a shred of credibility. And I've been joined now
:21:11. > :21:21.by the Shadow Scottish Secretary, Let's pick up on the point from
:21:22. > :21:26.Nicola Sturgeon about Trident. In Scotland the electoral choice on
:21:27. > :21:31.this is clear, if you are unilateral disarmament, you vote SNP. You
:21:32. > :21:37.couldn't vote Labour on this issue because people don't know what you
:21:38. > :21:42.stand for. The Labour Party has been clear, a motion was passed almost
:21:43. > :21:50.unanimously to reject the renewal of Trident on that policy basis. But it
:21:51. > :21:53.is not party policy. There is a policy review happening at the
:21:54. > :22:00.moment so the Scottish Labour Party's policy on this is clear. It
:22:01. > :22:06.is a Scottish election don't forget. These Trident issues are diverting
:22:07. > :22:12.us away from big issues of policy in terms of public services. The
:22:13. > :22:19.Deborah Mattinson research found Scottish voters felt abandoned by
:22:20. > :22:24.the Labour Party. When did Labour start taking Scottish voters for
:22:25. > :22:28.granted? It has been clear from a number of reports that have been
:22:29. > :22:31.done that there has been a process in the party where we have not
:22:32. > :22:38.devolved the party as much as Scotland. The Scottish party, in
:22:39. > :22:41.1999 it was a tremendous opportunity for the Scottish Labour Party but I
:22:42. > :23:03.don't think we have caught up with that. I think under Kesia's
:23:04. > :23:11.leadership she is refreshing that. You face further electoral disasters
:23:12. > :23:16.in Holyrood in May. No one is under any illusion this will be a
:23:17. > :23:21.difficult election, but what Kesia is trying to do is get a positive
:23:22. > :23:24.policy platform together, reconnect with Scottish people, respond to
:23:25. > :23:29.what Scottish people have been saying on the doorsteps, and she's
:23:30. > :23:32.doing that on the basis of responding to what the Scottish
:23:33. > :23:39.people want. That's what people want to have. What the Shadow Cabinet was
:23:40. > :23:45.told by your own election director is that he expects you to lose all
:23:46. > :23:50.of your constituency MSPs, just as you lost all of your constituency
:23:51. > :24:01.MPs bar you last May. What can you do to avoid that? The important
:24:02. > :24:08.thing is to go back to Kezia Dugdale's policy. She wants to
:24:09. > :24:13.change the policies of the Scottish Labour Party in order for us to have
:24:14. > :24:19.a policy platform that is incredibly positive. What is the most
:24:20. > :24:23.distinctive Scottish policy initiative since Jeremy Corbyn
:24:24. > :24:30.became leader? This isn't about Jeremy Corbyn, it is about Kezia
:24:31. > :24:33.Dugdale. We have helped to buy scheme for first time buyers, we
:24:34. > :24:39.want to build 60,000 affordable homes, we want to put the 50p tax
:24:40. > :24:43.rate back in to close the educational attainment gap, they are
:24:44. > :24:47.just a few of the policies she has announced already. She is one of the
:24:48. > :24:52.few people in this election campaign actually talking about the policy
:24:53. > :24:58.issues of Scotland. Nobody is talking about these kinds of issues.
:24:59. > :25:01.Do you think that collection policies you have outlined are
:25:02. > :25:06.enough to stave off a further electoral humiliation? It is just
:25:07. > :25:12.the start of a policy platform she will be announcing in the run-up to
:25:13. > :25:18.the elections. Help to buy is a Tory policy. This is about resolving a
:25:19. > :25:22.housing crisis that has been created by an SNP government. We are not
:25:23. > :25:30.holding them to account because people are obsessing over things
:25:31. > :25:35.like polls. The transport system is creaking at the seams. This has got
:25:36. > :25:39.to be dealt with and there is a real opportunity to talk about the powers
:25:40. > :25:46.the Scottish Government currently has and new powers. Let's talk about
:25:47. > :25:53.tomorrow's Scotland. How much would a top rate 50p tax for Scotland
:25:54. > :25:55.raised? Up to 10 million, depending where you would have any change but
:25:56. > :26:03.every single penny would go into educational attainment. When the
:26:04. > :26:08.Conservatives cut the tax rate to 45p, the Treasury were projecting it
:26:09. > :26:14.would cost ?3 billion a year to satisfy. That was for the whole of
:26:15. > :26:20.the UK, so 60-110,000,000 is a lot of money we can use to cut the
:26:21. > :26:28.educational attainment gap. Why is Jeremy Corbyn not cutting much ice
:26:29. > :26:32.north of the border? He has won a significant mandate within the
:26:33. > :26:36.party, he needs to win that now within the country but what we are
:26:37. > :26:42.concentrating on now is Kezia Dugdale as a new leader. I am
:26:43. > :26:52.interesting that you stress all the time Kezia Dugdale, is Jeremy Corbyn
:26:53. > :26:59.and asset or a liability in May? He is an asset because she wants us to
:27:00. > :27:02.invest in public services, he wants to use the powers in the Scottish
:27:03. > :27:12.bill to transform the Scottish Parliament... So why are the polls,
:27:13. > :27:16.if you have got Kezia Dugdale and Jeremy Corbyn doing all the right
:27:17. > :27:23.things, why are the polls so dire for you in Scotland? We will fight
:27:24. > :27:26.for every single vote and seat, we fight to win every election but
:27:27. > :27:30.whilst we are talking about polls and not holding the Scottish
:27:31. > :27:35.Government to account for a dreadful record in Government for eight years
:27:36. > :27:39.and not talking about positive policies being put forward, we will
:27:40. > :27:42.not get any traction in the polls. Let's get this campaign onto real
:27:43. > :27:47.issues that ordinary Scots want to talk about on the doorsteps, which
:27:48. > :27:52.is about holding the Government to account for a dreadful track record,
:27:53. > :27:55.and get some policies on there that says to the people the Scottish
:27:56. > :28:02.Labour Party has changed and we can talk about tomorrow's Scotland and
:28:03. > :28:04.how we can transform people's lives. Thank you.
:28:05. > :28:07.The huge influx of migrants into the EU from Syria and elsewhere
:28:08. > :28:09.is putting the future of the EU in "grave danger",
:28:10. > :28:12.that was the stark warning from the French Prime Minister
:28:13. > :28:15.Tomorrow, EU interior ministers will discuss a possible two-year
:28:16. > :28:17.suspension of the Schengen system of passport-free travel.
:28:18. > :28:20.It all comes as David Cameron seeks to put the finishing touches
:28:21. > :28:23.to a new deal for the UK inside the EU before
:28:24. > :28:28.But how is the migrant crisis affecting his renegotiation?
:28:29. > :28:31.Since January 2015, nearly 1.1 million migrants have arrived
:28:32. > :28:32.in Europe, the vast majority coming by sea.
:28:33. > :28:37.The International Monetary Fund estimates that nearly 4 million
:28:38. > :28:43.migrants will have reached the EU by the end of 2017.
:28:44. > :28:45.Tomorrow, EU interior ministers will discuss a possible suspension
:28:46. > :28:47.of the passport-free Schengen area and the re-introduction of border
:28:48. > :28:59.and introducing a new dispersal scheme to distribute migrants more
:29:00. > :29:05.It's an extra headache for David Cameron as he seeks
:29:06. > :29:11.to renegotiate the terms of our membership of the EU.
:29:12. > :29:14.The Prime Minister's preferred option is a four-year ban on new EU
:29:15. > :29:18.migrant workers claiming in-work benefits.
:29:19. > :29:21.But that's unlikely to satisfy many Conservative backbenchers.
:29:22. > :29:25.Former Cabinet minister Liam Fox, who has already said
:29:26. > :29:28.he will campaign to leave the EU, said yesterday that he "didn't
:29:29. > :29:32.expect a British prime minister to have to take the political
:29:33. > :29:34.begging bowl around the capitals of Europe just to change our own
:29:35. > :29:42.Over the next three weekends we will be staging three debates
:29:43. > :29:46.Joining me now to discuss immigration and the EU are the Ukip
:29:47. > :29:49.MEP Diane James, who's campaigning for Britain to leave the EU,
:29:50. > :29:51.and the Conservative MP Damian Green, who supports
:29:52. > :30:08.The French prime ministers as the future the EU is in grave danger, so
:30:09. > :30:13.why would we want to stay in it? -- Prime Minister says. It is useful to
:30:14. > :30:16.as, it makes us safer and more secure and more prosperous and
:30:17. > :30:21.therefore it is worth saving, from our perspective and to the other
:30:22. > :30:26.member countries. Why does it make us more secure? The way that we
:30:27. > :30:30.cooperate with other European countries, the European
:30:31. > :30:34.institutions, things like the European arrest warrant, data share,
:30:35. > :30:40.these are very useful to our police and security services. We share data
:30:41. > :30:42.with the United States, as well. But not on the same automatic basis as
:30:43. > :30:47.we do with Europe. There is automatic sharing of intelligence
:30:48. > :30:52.between Britain and the United States. There is can we have a
:30:53. > :30:57.separate treaty with them, it is not as automatic and quick. -- there is,
:30:58. > :31:05.we have a separate treaty. We can change information within minutes
:31:06. > :31:09.with other European countries, and it takes days and weeks with other
:31:10. > :31:15.countries, and that means in cases of terrorism and sadly we live in a
:31:16. > :31:17.dangerous world, with global terrorism, that kind of European
:31:18. > :31:26.cooperation is increasingly important. Diane, we face a
:31:27. > :31:32.migration crisis, what is your solution, to turn Britain into a
:31:33. > :31:37.fortress Britain? No, it isn't, but it is to regain border control for
:31:38. > :31:40.the United Kingdom, and that is a position endorsed by a number of
:31:41. > :31:44.countries, and number of member states across the EU, you have five
:31:45. > :31:49.countries which every imposed border controls to some extent. There is
:31:50. > :31:53.still free movement of people. France said last week they will
:31:54. > :31:55.extend their border control, their passport control as an emergency
:31:56. > :32:03.measure because of the terrorist attacks in Paris. Border control is
:32:04. > :32:05.needed because under the current system freedom of movement, people,
:32:06. > :32:09.services, transport, that also means freedom of movement for terrorists
:32:10. > :32:12.and weapons, that come from the Balkan states. We don't have border
:32:13. > :32:17.controls? Yes, but not sufficient, Balkan states. We don't have border
:32:18. > :32:22.if someone comes in from the Mediterranean states or from the
:32:23. > :32:26.Balkan states, they have gained entry into the European member zone.
:32:27. > :32:35.They can't then move around. If they get their passport, ultimately...
:32:36. > :32:39.That can take ten years. It is five years in Germany, it can be granted
:32:40. > :32:42.sooner if the Dublin agreement is changed and asylum seekers get a
:32:43. > :32:48.faster processing, they can then come to the United Kingdom. It is
:32:49. > :32:51.not five years in Germany, it is a comment if you have a criminal
:32:52. > :32:55.record, you can't get one, and the things that Niger Farage was saying
:32:56. > :33:03.about the scenes in Cologne, that was wrong. -- Nigel. The out
:33:04. > :33:07.campaign is saying that border controls are what we need, strong
:33:08. > :33:09.border controls, and pulling out of Europe would have the practical
:33:10. > :33:14.effect, our border controls which act have a, thanks to the treaty
:33:15. > :33:18.with the French government, they would certainly come back to Dover
:33:19. > :33:23.-- our border controls which we have at Calais. Migrants would find it
:33:24. > :33:29.much easier to get to this country and claim asylum here. But if they
:33:30. > :33:34.couldn't get in, they did not qualify, we would have the power to
:33:35. > :33:38.deport them? We were, after a legal process, but they would be stopped
:33:39. > :33:43.not at Calais, it would be at Dover, when they are in Britain, and once
:33:44. > :33:46.they are here they can claim asylum and because we have proper legal
:33:47. > :33:50.processes it takes a lot of time and expense to deal with that. He has
:33:51. > :33:55.all the accused me of getting my facts wrong, but he has got his
:33:56. > :33:59.facts wrong. The agreement in terms of stationing our teams and our
:34:00. > :34:03.support staff and control, in the French ports, that is a France UK
:34:04. > :34:07.agreement, it has nothing to do with the European Union. If you are
:34:08. > :34:13.suggesting that the agreement between France and the United
:34:14. > :34:16.Kingdom gets torn up because we leave the EU, that is fanciful and
:34:17. > :34:22.misleading and I don't agree with you. France signed the treatment
:34:23. > :34:26.with us as a fellow member of the EU and the French interior minister has
:34:27. > :34:29.said that they would look at the treaty, of course it would be at
:34:30. > :34:44.risk, do you think the people of Calais want that camp
:34:45. > :34:47.help address any of this? The area of renegotiation and this is about
:34:48. > :34:52.the extra pull factor that comes from the perception that the British
:34:53. > :34:55.benefits system is easier to access compared with other countries, and
:34:56. > :35:01.therefore there are people coming here simply to make the benefits
:35:02. > :35:04.system and I think what many people think about immigration, they are
:35:05. > :35:08.moral axed about people coming here to work and pay taxes but they don't
:35:09. > :35:15.like people coming to use the welfare system -- they are more
:35:16. > :35:18.relaxed. But it has been said this will not have a big impact, you
:35:19. > :35:23.might marginalise one pull factor, but with rises in the national
:35:24. > :35:30.minimum wage, you have increased the pull factor on the other hand. It's
:35:31. > :35:34.a boiler fairness, that is what -- that is a boiler fairness, that is
:35:35. > :35:40.what people want... It is unlikely to have a big impact. This will have
:35:41. > :35:45.very little impact on the numbers. I think people can make a distinction
:35:46. > :35:50.between those who are coming here to work, who benefit our economy and
:35:51. > :35:54.benefit all of us. But we have agreed it is unlikely, even if it is
:35:55. > :36:00.fair, it is unlikely to have any impact on the numbers. We don't
:36:01. > :36:07.know. The OBR has had a good guess. They are guessing, it is a guess.
:36:08. > :36:12.Nigel Farage said he would cut immigration even if that meant lower
:36:13. > :36:16.economic growth, do you agree? There are two parts to your question,
:36:17. > :36:22.George Osborne has predicated his fiscal strategy on high numbers of
:36:23. > :36:26.immigration, but we have done this on individuals who come here on a
:36:27. > :36:29.points system to deliver real value to this country, who are not
:36:30. > :36:36.subsidised by the tax credit option and who actually meet the needs that
:36:37. > :36:39.we have in the United Kingdom, and currently, as we know, we want
:36:40. > :36:44.engineers and medics and nurses and lawyers. Ukip strategy has never
:36:45. > :36:49.been to stop those individuals coming, but what we are saying, the
:36:50. > :36:56.impact of low skilled immigration on this country is negative. That is
:36:57. > :37:00.our position. Even if it meant slow economic growth, you would still cut
:37:01. > :37:06.the numbers? It would not mean slower economic growth. We have made
:37:07. > :37:12.our position very clear in terms of the value of the money that we would
:37:13. > :37:16.not be paying in terms of membership of the EU, coming back to the United
:37:17. > :37:20.Kingdom's economy, and balancing the whole position, that would be a
:37:21. > :37:27.positive for us as a country. The Prime Minister has refused to leave
:37:28. > :37:30.a group of 40 Eurosceptic backbenchers in the Conservative
:37:31. > :37:35.Party, who want to asking to do much more. Should he not make them? The
:37:36. > :37:39.Prime Minister meets backbenchers all the time. He has not meant this
:37:40. > :37:45.group, they wrote to him in November and he has not met them. -- he has
:37:46. > :37:49.not met this group. Anyone who would like to meet the Prime Minister has
:37:50. > :37:52.ample opportunities to do so, I'm a backbencher, I can speak to the
:37:53. > :37:56.Prime Minister, and all of these points have been raised. It is
:37:57. > :38:03.possible that this story is slightly overblown. Thank you very much. We
:38:04. > :38:05.will be coming back to these stories in the weeks ahead.
:38:06. > :38:08.And next week we'll be debating the economic effects of leaving
:38:09. > :38:11.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:12. > :38:20.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:21. > :38:24.High-quality childcare, an end to the council tax freeze,
:38:25. > :38:27.and improving life chances for young people -
:38:28. > :38:29.just a few of the recommendations from Scotland's
:38:30. > :38:37.The debate about local services continues as the Finance Secretary
:38:38. > :38:41.gives local authorities more time to decide
:38:42. > :38:45.whether to accept his funding package.
:38:46. > :38:47.David Cameron meets his Czech counterpart
:38:48. > :38:49.in Prague to try and reach a deal over EU reform.
:38:50. > :38:56.And will it be enough to prevent Brexit?
:38:57. > :38:59.Now, the government's adviser on poverty caused a bit of a stir
:39:00. > :39:02.this week when she suggested freezing
:39:03. > :39:05.council tax might not be a very good way of tackling poverty.
:39:06. > :39:08.She also made some fairly gnomic remarks
:39:09. > :39:10.about other universal benefits and about whether young people
:39:11. > :39:12.are treated fairly by the benefits system.
:39:13. > :39:15.Let's try to find out exactly what she meant.
:39:16. > :39:22.Naomi Eisenstadt joins me now from Dunstable.
:39:23. > :39:35.The council tax freeze, why do you think it should be phased out or
:39:36. > :39:39.even just abolished? There is a Commission on Local Tax Reform. It
:39:40. > :39:43.is going to take a while to get that commission to make their
:39:44. > :39:47.recommendations. In the meanwhile, the reason that the council tax
:39:48. > :39:53.freeze does not help poor people is that the poorest people do not pay
:39:54. > :39:58.council tax, it does help better off people because housing has not been
:39:59. > :40:06.revalued for 25 years. People living and the most expensive properties,
:40:07. > :40:12.their taxes have not changed. I think this benefits are better off
:40:13. > :40:15.people. It disadvantages to people because local authorities need the
:40:16. > :40:27.funding to fund services that help the poorest people in the main. In
:40:28. > :40:32.effect, the council tax freezes subsidise middle-class people?
:40:33. > :40:40.Exactly. Both Scottish Government does have ways of helping the
:40:41. > :40:43.poorest families. I think there are progressive things that the Scottish
:40:44. > :40:49.people are -- Scottish Government are doing, but more discretion is
:40:50. > :40:51.needed over spending. The way they decided that discretion is deciding
:40:52. > :40:55.needed over spending. The way they for themselves what to charge in the
:40:56. > :41:01.property tax. Property tax is easy to collect because you can't move
:41:02. > :41:08.your house offshore. It is our good tax, a progressive tax. What about
:41:09. > :41:12.other universal benefits which are provided by the Scottish Government?
:41:13. > :41:20.Does your argument not apply to them? It certainly applies to things
:41:21. > :41:27.like the fuel subsidy but older people get. I get that subsidy. I
:41:28. > :41:32.think that is wrong. My income is fine. I do not even have to ask for
:41:33. > :41:38.it. There are some universal benefits in times of austerity, but
:41:39. > :41:45.I think pensioners have benefited enormously... I was thinking of
:41:46. > :41:58.prescription charges, without argument not apply equally?
:41:59. > :42:07.It is arguably subsidising the middle classes. All universal
:42:08. > :42:14.benefits help everyone, not just the poor is. The difficulty is that
:42:15. > :42:20.there is our balance between the bureaucracy in administering means
:42:21. > :42:26.tested benefits which can be costly and the stigma associated with means
:42:27. > :42:29.tested benefits are against how do you spend your money most
:42:30. > :42:35.effectively? I think that we have gone too far in Scotland on the
:42:36. > :42:40.universal side, not far enough on the targeting. On the targeting, we
:42:41. > :42:45.need to make a culture of public services more respectful and avoid
:42:46. > :42:51.stigma that way. Have we gone too far on the issue of tuition fees?
:42:52. > :42:57.That is interesting. I think the tuition fees are a good thing. The
:42:58. > :43:04.argument I am making other better chances for young people is that we
:43:05. > :43:07.haven't put a comparable effort, energy and thinking into those young
:43:08. > :43:15.people who are not going to go to university. There has been a lot of
:43:16. > :43:22.work on employability, the task force on unemployment, but just as
:43:23. > :43:26.we sped huge amount of time and effort on understanding the under
:43:27. > :43:30.fives, and we have won that argument on what a crucial period of life
:43:31. > :43:35.that is, one of my recommendations is to think much more carefully on
:43:36. > :43:41.what works for older children and young adults in the sense that...
:43:42. > :43:46.Can I just ask you specifically about tuition fees? People might
:43:47. > :43:52.argue that that money could be better spent on giving grants so
:43:53. > :43:57.that more people from disadvantaged backgrounds can get into further
:43:58. > :44:02.education, or indeed to help people who do not go into further
:44:03. > :44:09.education. I think that I would like to look much more carefully first at
:44:10. > :44:14.what policies would help, how much they cost and then if you need to
:44:15. > :44:18.even it out. I would not want to say let's do away with tuition fees
:44:19. > :44:23.before we have some evidence on what would replace it. What I am
:44:24. > :44:32.recommending and the report is the current policies in place for
:44:33. > :44:37.apprenticeships need to be strengthened, the need for urgency.
:44:38. > :44:42.But I think we need a wider review on older children, young adults more
:44:43. > :44:46.generally before we see the policy should be taking money away from one
:44:47. > :44:49.group and giving it to the other. We do not know what needs to be done to
:44:50. > :45:01.give it to the other. We have not done enough thinking and analysis on
:45:02. > :45:07.this. Is there an argument on having universal benefits? The argument is
:45:08. > :45:16.that gives the middle classes at stake in the welfare system. If you
:45:17. > :45:21.get a benefit from it, you think you have a stake in bed. I think that is
:45:22. > :45:27.absolutely right. My argument would be on child benefit would be to keep
:45:28. > :45:32.it universal, but to tax it as part of income. Why shouldn't it be part
:45:33. > :45:36.of family income and subject to that same taxes. Better of people would
:45:37. > :45:43.pay back as part of their income tax. It's much easier to administer
:45:44. > :45:48.universal benefit than a targeted benefit. I believe in the universal
:45:49. > :45:52.NHS and I universal education system. But I universal NHS does not
:45:53. > :45:59.mean everybody gets the same, everybody gets what they need. You
:46:00. > :46:02.made a slightly ambivalent comment about the possibility of the
:46:03. > :46:06.Scottish Government introducing reforms to the welfare system. You
:46:07. > :46:10.urged caution because you said you were worried about tampering with
:46:11. > :46:17.the UK wide benefit system. What did you mean? Unless you have complete
:46:18. > :46:27.revolution, you are tied into some of the UK benefits. One of the most
:46:28. > :46:30.damaging was things like sanctions, sanctions against people on
:46:31. > :46:34.unemployment benefit who do not turn up for interviews. One of the women
:46:35. > :46:38.I spoke to was sanctioned when she was in hospital on a ventilator.
:46:39. > :46:42.That Scottish Government is not allowed to do anything to mitigate
:46:43. > :46:46.sanctions. You mess with one bits of the system, but other bits are still
:46:47. > :46:52.in place. There is a fundamental tension in benefits which is the
:46:53. > :46:55.simpler you make them, the more rigid they are. The more confiscated
:46:56. > :46:59.you make them, the more flexible BR to account for particular
:47:00. > :47:05.circumstances, but they are difficult to administer. But that
:47:06. > :47:09.balance between the simplicity so that they are clear and everybody
:47:10. > :47:12.understands how it works, which is the purpose of Universal Credit,
:47:13. > :47:14.that simplicity makes them Bridget and therefore for many people on
:47:15. > :47:41.fear. -- makes them Bridget. Is there too much of against young
:47:42. > :47:47.people -- too much of our bias? I cut myself as one of them. I
:47:48. > :47:49.people -- too much of our bias? I is the reforms are being
:47:50. > :47:54.overprotective towards older people. If you look at poverty rates in
:47:55. > :48:00.Scotland, the only group that is better off after housing costs is
:48:01. > :48:05.older people. If you look at families with children, after
:48:06. > :48:14.housing costs, the poverty rate increases. If you look at young
:48:15. > :48:16.people, after housing costs, the poverty rates increases. Thank you
:48:17. > :48:17.for joining us. Well, Naomi Eisenstadt hasn't been
:48:18. > :48:20.the only one to indicate concern Earlier this month, Moray Council
:48:21. > :48:24.announced it was discussing the option of raising
:48:25. > :48:26.council tax to pay for vital services, which would make
:48:27. > :48:29.it the first to defy the SNP government and scrap the eight
:48:30. > :48:31.year nationwide freeze. Since then, the Finance
:48:32. > :48:33.Secretary, who lauded its continuance in his draft budget
:48:34. > :48:36.in December, has said he will give all councils more time to consider
:48:37. > :48:39.the funding deal after several indicated they couldn't make
:48:40. > :48:41.a decision ahead of last week's David O'Neil is president of Cosla,
:48:42. > :48:56.the local authorities' First of all, can we have some
:48:57. > :49:01.facts? Have you had discussions with a Scottish Government about the
:49:02. > :49:05.council tax freeze, any indication that they are prepared to
:49:06. > :49:08.reconsider? The discussions I have had showed that they are not
:49:09. > :49:14.prepared to reconsider the council tax freeze. They take the view that
:49:15. > :49:22.the council tax freezes very popular, popular with families.
:49:23. > :49:32.Something being popular does not make it right. I am dubious, there
:49:33. > :49:37.is talk that there is going to be some movement here. You have not had
:49:38. > :49:40.any suggestion from the Scottish Government that they might remove
:49:41. > :49:45.the penalties on councils that do it up council tax? We have not
:49:46. > :49:50.concluded discussions with the Scottish Government, we hope to do
:49:51. > :49:54.that this week. But so far, there is no indication that they are going to
:49:55. > :49:59.move. If Moray Council does decide to put its council tax up, it will
:50:00. > :50:07.be penalised? That is what the Scottish Government are telling us.
:50:08. > :50:14.You think the hazard tax freeze should go? It is an affront to local
:50:15. > :50:17.democracy. Local authorities cannot decide what money they are going to
:50:18. > :50:21.spend at where they are going to spend it. We are told by a national
:50:22. > :50:28.politician how much money to spend at where to spend it. If national
:50:29. > :50:29.politicians want to run local services, they should stand for the
:50:30. > :50:39.council. The problem with that is for
:50:40. > :50:45.politicians who have said tax will not or are they now have to turn
:50:46. > :50:49.around and say the arm. This parliament is now effectively at a
:50:50. > :50:54.named. It will dissolve in a couple of weeks before the new financial
:50:55. > :50:58.year Texan. Government have delivered their manifesto
:50:59. > :51:03.commitment. I do not know whether the intent to code it in their
:51:04. > :51:09.manifesto for the elections of 2016 later this year but it is an affront
:51:10. > :51:12.to democracy. National governments are telling local communities how to
:51:13. > :51:17.run services and how much money to spend. How would you reply to a
:51:18. > :51:23.point John Swinney made in a slightly different context to flood
:51:24. > :51:28.relief. He made the point in a debate in Parliament that councils
:51:29. > :51:34.have something like almost ?2 billion in emergency reserves. Why
:51:35. > :51:38.not use that money? You can only use the reserve once. When it is gone it
:51:39. > :51:44.is gone. Councils in terms of flood relief and any emergency will spend
:51:45. > :51:47.the money as and when it is needed and worry about the processors later
:51:48. > :51:55.but you can only use the reserve once. But they are not using them is
:51:56. > :51:59.the point John Swinney was making. You can run down reserves and
:52:00. > :52:02.rebuild them later. The point she was making that in the case of
:52:03. > :52:05.things like flooding it was not reasonable for councils to start
:52:06. > :52:10.handing more money when they already had money and the Scottish
:52:11. > :52:14.Government said it would make money available later that the can spend
:52:15. > :52:17.now. He would spend the money now but when flooding has taken place
:52:18. > :52:22.local government will be via spending money and doing what needs
:52:23. > :52:27.to be done and they will seek to get the money back later and no doubt
:52:28. > :52:32.will use reserves to do that. What would you say to the council tax
:52:33. > :52:38.there who might say I do not want my council tax to go up and I am hard
:52:39. > :52:41.up and I do not see any difference to council services. Without the
:52:42. > :52:46.effects of these cuts? For the ordinary citizen, what do the seat
:52:47. > :52:50.that are the result of budget is being cut? Councils have been good
:52:51. > :52:55.over the last seven or eight years at riding out inefficiencies that
:52:56. > :53:02.you cannot keep doing that. -- driving out. They might say that is
:53:03. > :53:06.good it proves the was found in the system that could be cut because
:53:07. > :53:11.frankly my services have not been eroded so that proves it was
:53:12. > :53:16.possible to cut the budgets of councils without any effect on
:53:17. > :53:21.service. That is a fair comment to make that there was found in the
:53:22. > :53:25.system but there is not now. You are now cutting lifeline services to the
:53:26. > :53:31.most vulnerable. Hypothetically for council tax but you would say people
:53:32. > :53:35.like David O'Neill were protesting against council tax cuts in 2010 and
:53:36. > :53:44.now admitting Edward wrong to do that and the was fat in the system
:53:45. > :53:49.so why should we believe that no? The low hanging fruit has all gone,
:53:50. > :53:56.you are cutting into the bone now. Like what? A whole range of
:53:57. > :54:01.services. Let me give you examples. Around about 75 cent of the budgets
:54:02. > :54:07.that local authorities have spent on education, health and social care,
:54:08. > :54:13.we have been told those unimportant services as, indeed, the R and the
:54:14. > :54:18.our priorities. We have got to be protected and any cuts that have to
:54:19. > :54:23.come art from the other 25%, libraries, leisure centres, roads.
:54:24. > :54:29.That type of spend will bear the front of the cuts. We are way beyond
:54:30. > :54:33.the time of having found in the system. We are way beyond the time
:54:34. > :54:40.of seeing easy systems and savings to be made. You think the council
:54:41. > :54:46.tax is appropriate? It is way beyond its sell by date and the council tax
:54:47. > :54:52.freeze had made that worse. What should replace it? The COSLA view is
:54:53. > :54:58.that we should be replacing the council tax with a proper tax for
:54:59. > :55:01.the reasons your previous contributor stated, the raft good
:55:02. > :55:04.reasons to continue with the property -based tax. Thank you very
:55:05. > :55:06.much. David Cameron continued his charm
:55:07. > :55:09.offensive in Europe this week in his attempt to reach
:55:10. > :55:11.a deal on EU reform. Meanwhile, here, the former SNP
:55:12. > :55:14.deputy leader Jim Sillers announced that he would be campaigning
:55:15. > :55:16.to leave Europe, which, he said, had opposed
:55:17. > :55:17.Scottish independence. Our reporter Andrew Black has been
:55:18. > :55:40.looking at whether the PM is making It's the final countdown. As the
:55:41. > :55:43.date of this referendum draws ever nearer, David Cameron has been
:55:44. > :55:47.continuing his tour of European countries hoping to woo foreign
:55:48. > :55:53.leaders into backing his vision to renew the terms of written's EU
:55:54. > :55:58.membership. His latest stop was in Prague where he met the Prime
:55:59. > :56:03.Minister of Czechoslovakia who promptly rejected Mr Cameron 's
:56:04. > :56:08.proposal for a four-year ban on in work benefits to new arrivals to the
:56:09. > :56:13.UK. Not great for the PM given that welfare changes are crucial to
:56:14. > :56:16.getting a the form deal but has he dropped by the economic forum in
:56:17. > :56:21.Davos earlier this week Mr Cameron has been keeping up date in the hope
:56:22. > :56:24.he might get an agreement on alternative welfare cards. Meanwhile
:56:25. > :56:29.he told local business leaders who want Britain to remain in a reformed
:56:30. > :56:34.EU to get out there and start making their case. I call further
:56:35. > :56:39.developments, the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, once the UK to stay
:56:40. > :56:42.in the EU even though she thinks a vote to leave could trigger another
:56:43. > :56:48.Scottish independence referendum. This week came the news
:56:49. > :56:50.veteran independence campaigner, Jim Sellers, would be fighting for the
:56:51. > :56:55.UK to leave the European Sellers, would be fighting for the
:56:56. > :56:56.Meanwhile, for David Cameron, the clock is ticking, he is hoping that
:56:57. > :57:04.at the EU summit next month clock is ticking, he is hoping that
:57:05. > :57:05.will be talks before calling the EU referendum which might come as early
:57:06. > :57:08.as June. Matt Qvortrup is a professor
:57:09. > :57:10.of Political Science and International
:57:11. > :57:11.relations at Coventry His latest paper is
:57:12. > :57:29.about the EU referendum. You have a brick sent on it, please
:57:30. > :57:30.explain? I tried to make a mathematical
:57:31. > :57:33.explain? I tried to make a countries will leave or stay in the
:57:34. > :57:39.EU and things will be decided. Economies can predict the rate of
:57:40. > :57:43.economic growth and so on. In a similar way, not quite scientific
:57:44. > :57:49.work in a similar way you can predict the outcome of referendums.
:57:50. > :57:55.What is the outcome? It depends. You are qualifying already. It depends,
:57:56. > :58:01.let me finish, please come it depends on the turnover rate. If
:58:02. > :58:05.there is a very high turnout that is collocated with the no vote then a
:58:06. > :58:09.lot of people not normally interested in politics will pen to
:58:10. > :58:14.be, as we know from the 44 other referendums we have had on this
:58:15. > :58:18.titular issue, if we have the height turnout a lot of people not normally
:58:19. > :58:22.interested in politics would come out to vote and the lot would be
:58:23. > :58:29.negatively predisposed towards the EU and would vote to leave. If we
:58:30. > :58:35.have a turnout close to the Scottish referendum then there will be a no
:58:36. > :58:38.vote of 40% but if we only have a turnout of 65% likely had in the
:58:39. > :58:48.parliamentary elections then David Cameron will just sleep in with 64%.
:58:49. > :58:52.I should add to listeners that I wrote an article for the Scotsman a
:58:53. > :58:54.couple of years ago without predicted the outcome for the
:58:55. > :58:59.American presidential election that was more accurate than opinion polls
:59:00. > :59:04.so I do have some sort of credibility. Right! What makes you
:59:05. > :59:08.think that the referendum you have looked at in Europe have in about a
:59:09. > :59:12.load of different things, not necessarily great in out EU
:59:13. > :59:15.referendums, what makes you think you can extrapolate from these past
:59:16. > :59:21.ones which might have been about specific treaties or is the civic
:59:22. > :59:28.measures for things like security, you can extrapolate from that to an
:59:29. > :59:34.end or I'd referendum in Britain? We had the 1975 referendum here in
:59:35. > :59:37.Britain where, had we not voted for the right ministers renegotiated
:59:38. > :59:44.treaty back then in 1975, we would have left the EU we also had more
:59:45. > :59:49.exotically Greenland ported to leave the EEC as it was then. We have a
:59:50. > :59:54.number of examples of, specific example. The other ones are to do
:59:55. > :00:00.with whether really like Europe or not, most voters do not have an
:00:01. > :00:05.encyclopaedic knowledge about the various bits of the treaties but it
:00:06. > :00:11.is basically do you like the United Europe or do you like a less united
:00:12. > :00:16.Europe. One of the tendencies we have seen, of course you can never
:00:17. > :00:20.be like with like, but it is generally is eating in most of the
:00:21. > :00:26.referendums about the campaign whether you want more Europe or not.
:00:27. > :00:31.The other thing that we also see in referendums is it is often about the
:00:32. > :00:35.economy and most politics is about your daily life, do you want higher
:00:36. > :00:39.inflation or lower inflation and most people will not spend all their
:00:40. > :00:45.time reading political articles and what have you. They will focus on
:00:46. > :00:51.the economy. One of the paradoxical factors we have had also in all of
:00:52. > :00:54.the other 44 referendums, if the economy is good then people tend to
:00:55. > :00:59.vote against the EU and if the economy is bad they feel the
:01:00. > :01:04.probably better stick with it even if they do not love it that might be
:01:05. > :01:09.a good idea for pragmatic reasons. Your advice to the campaigns to stay
:01:10. > :01:15.in the European Union would be by all means campaign but make it
:01:16. > :01:18.really boring? Yes, and do not get a lot of people to turn out which
:01:19. > :01:23.matrix Link by David Cameron, all jokes aside, I he would want the
:01:24. > :01:27.vote in the summer when most people are planning holidays and might even
:01:28. > :01:32.be away on holiday. The other reason why he is any bit a holiday is that
:01:33. > :01:36.most referendums, irrespective of whether on the EU or any other
:01:37. > :01:40.thing, the longer you have been in office the less likely you are to
:01:41. > :01:47.win. If you take the Scottish referendum last year, that was held
:01:48. > :01:51.after, I think, it was a second term they had been in office for a long
:01:52. > :01:56.time and had disappointed quite a lot of voters and therefore where
:01:57. > :01:59.less likely to be given the benefit of the doubt. If we go back in
:02:00. > :02:03.recent Richie Shastri the give Aleutian referendum in 1997 it was
:02:04. > :02:10.only a couple of months after the Tony Blair government had won and it
:02:11. > :02:16.was still a honeymoon field. David Cameron is now in his second term
:02:17. > :02:22.and is in danger of being out of the honeymoon period. It has only been a
:02:23. > :02:28.conservative government for a year but the general tendency is you lose
:02:29. > :02:33.2%... I want to ask about something I found very interesting. You find
:02:34. > :02:38.that spending shed loads of money on a campaign does not mean you will
:02:39. > :02:41.win it? You can spend a lot of money but it depends how you are spending
:02:42. > :02:47.it and what really decides a referendum is not money. We have had
:02:48. > :02:51.loads of referendums. The Irish referendums, often they have said no
:02:52. > :02:57.to the EU and well it has been out by a factor of one two 20 the no
:02:58. > :03:03.camp have been able to Lyon things to dream the debate in a way that
:03:04. > :03:08.resonated with the a lot of Irish voters. Don't you think it is not
:03:09. > :03:11.just about money one of the things that will be cheering up the people
:03:12. > :03:16.of written is we had Len McCluskey from the Unite union saying he would
:03:17. > :03:22.campaign for staying in. The CBI well. It is the fact right across
:03:23. > :03:27.the board you have politicians, your bosses and your trade union saying
:03:28. > :03:33.this is not a good idea, your jobs could be at risk? There is a
:03:34. > :03:38.tendency, sorry if I sound boring like a statistician, that is what I
:03:39. > :03:43.am, here is a tendency when the elite consensus, the big and
:03:44. > :03:47.powerful are all in favour of it you have do think carefully before you
:03:48. > :03:50.make your decision. At the same time we have had referendums in
:03:51. > :03:55.comparable countries like Ireland, Denmark and Sweden where the whole
:03:56. > :04:01.establishment where in favour of more integration and the voted no.
:04:02. > :04:05.In Sweden, for example, everybody from Abbott to Volvo campaign for
:04:06. > :04:13.Sweden to adopt the euro and they had a slogan saying what about my
:04:14. > :04:21.mortgage if we bought for Europe? -- Abba. We have two capture minds and
:04:22. > :04:27.imaginations. OK, the Swedes defied Abba, almost unthinkable. Now to end
:04:28. > :04:31.off with, you have been very critical saying the busy good chance
:04:32. > :04:35.of the no vote at your conclusion nonetheless is that most referendums
:04:36. > :04:46.actually end up owing in the favour of the pro-Europeans? The lazy there
:04:47. > :04:54.is a myth that people are against it.
:04:55. > :05:09.On average, the yes side gets over 60% of the vote. It is for the
:05:10. > :05:13.government to lose that momentum, which they might be doing in this
:05:14. > :05:22.case. But overall, statistically speaking, the probability of winning
:05:23. > :05:24.the referendum is much greater than the probability of losing it. Thank
:05:25. > :05:25.you. Let's look at what has been
:05:26. > :05:28.happening this week and look at what is coming up
:05:29. > :05:34.in the week ahead. Joining me now is Shabnum Mustapha,
:05:35. > :05:37.who is a former special adviser to the Liberal Democrats,
:05:38. > :05:39.and Isobel Lindsay, who is the co-vice
:05:40. > :05:48.chair of Scottish CND. That must have cheered you up at the
:05:49. > :05:57.end. You are getting very depressed. I was. It is going to be a public
:05:58. > :06:01.vote, in the hands of the public. It could go either way. There is a
:06:02. > :06:07.possibility that the UK could vote to leave, but the possibility they
:06:08. > :06:13.could vote to domain. I am in favour of Britain remaining within the EU
:06:14. > :06:21.and all our political leaders should be making a positive case. One of
:06:22. > :06:27.the things highlighted the is it is not necessarily a foregone
:06:28. > :06:31.conclusion? Not at all. And one of the big differences between this and
:06:32. > :06:35.the campaign in 1975 is that then there was still an element of
:06:36. > :06:42.idealism around the European project. I think that has gone. I
:06:43. > :06:52.think have seen it... There was our big left-wing campaign against
:06:53. > :06:56.Europe at the time. The left-wing campaign was principled. But there
:06:57. > :07:05.is an ugly campaign around racism and protection of the status quo.
:07:06. > :07:11.But I think the differences now people are looking at Europe and the
:07:12. > :07:20.RCN some appalling governments there, looking at... Particularly
:07:21. > :07:27.some of the Eastern European ones, the racial attitudes... Are the more
:07:28. > :07:31.likely to conclude we have got to stay in Europe a change of those
:07:32. > :07:37.attitudes or conclude we do not want anything to do with that? For those
:07:38. > :07:41.wanting a yes vote, that has got to be the argument. And the SNP are not
:07:42. > :07:50.quite getting this right at the pleasant. By and large, they are
:07:51. > :07:55.doing art let's vote yes, it's in Scotland's interest. They have got
:07:56. > :08:00.to be much more critical and use the kind of argument that we deplore a
:08:01. > :08:05.lot of what is going on, but we need more liberal voices. We have to use
:08:06. > :08:10.that other co-department. Otherwise they will be just seen as part of
:08:11. > :08:20.the noise, the elite consensus noise. Talking of the SNP, what Nyom
:08:21. > :08:26.a eyes and start receiving. -- Nyom a ice and
:08:27. > :08:33.that universal benefits are subsidies to the middle classes?
:08:34. > :08:38.Masquerading as progressive taxes. I think there is a bit of that and
:08:39. > :08:44.what she said. She made it very clear about the benefits, the
:08:45. > :08:49.universal NHS and universal education, we are talking about
:08:50. > :08:59.benefits to pensioners... But also prescription charges, council tax
:09:00. > :09:05.freeze, three buses. I think there is or was going to be a debate
:09:06. > :09:14.amongst parties about what things to give away to people. That is why but
:09:15. > :09:16.the last few years, we have seen a lot of parties have positive
:09:17. > :09:22.policies for pensioners. They have done quite well. In the past, they
:09:23. > :09:29.were not doing well and there was a lot of pensioner poverty. These are
:09:30. > :09:35.important issues, but if you start targeting a lot of benefits, people
:09:36. > :09:39.who pay taxes will question what they get out of this. All parties
:09:40. > :09:49.had to get a balance between universal and targeting. Whether you
:09:50. > :09:58.target all benefits I'm not sure all taxpayers would... It is a difficult
:09:59. > :10:01.one for the SNP. If politicians cut your taxes, it is difficult for
:10:02. > :10:08.anyone to say they are going to go up. It is difficult for all the
:10:09. > :10:15.parties. The council tax freeze came in because the SNP was thwarted in
:10:16. > :10:25.its intention to perform local taxation. It desperately needs
:10:26. > :10:33.reformed. We know that. But we are the quality of virus was quite wrong
:10:34. > :10:38.is... If you are a politician, all the options are unattractive. An
:10:39. > :10:43.attractive to some sections of the community. People who lose make a
:10:44. > :10:49.lot of noise, people who gain ten to stay quiet. But she was wrong in
:10:50. > :10:54.suggesting that the council tax did not affect the low paid. One of the
:10:55. > :10:59.big problems of the council tax, probably in terms of absolute games,
:11:00. > :11:07.yes, one time only the well of game more, but the council tax hits the
:11:08. > :11:11.low paid very badly. I want to highlight some things in the paper.
:11:12. > :11:21.The Sunday Herald had a story about Pete Wishart, again about the
:11:22. > :11:28.election. Are you happy with this? There seems to be a chorus of people
:11:29. > :11:34.of Syrian independence, can we forget about that for file? I think
:11:35. > :11:41.the manifesto, there has got to be the permission requested to have,
:11:42. > :11:48.under certain circumstances, another referendum. That is not a guarantee.
:11:49. > :12:01.David Cameron has already said not on my watch. If Scotland's votes to
:12:02. > :12:03.stay in Europe and the UK leave, we want another referendum, the UK
:12:04. > :12:10.Government will turn around and say you do not have a mandate. This is
:12:11. > :12:18.why, in the manifesto, there has to be a form of wording which seeks
:12:19. > :12:24.authority to do this under certain circumstances. But it has to be
:12:25. > :12:32.qualified. You are presumably against independence, but there does
:12:33. > :12:37.seem to be people coming out and just saying calm down, we are not
:12:38. > :12:45.going to do this, why do you think that is? Even if you remember during
:12:46. > :12:49.the general election debates when you had the Scottish bid and the
:12:50. > :12:52.Scottish party leaders, Nicola Sturgeon was booed by the audience
:12:53. > :12:56.when the issue of a second referendum came up, I think they
:12:57. > :13:00.have come to realise that it is not our fault winner for them, it is not
:13:01. > :13:07.popular. This morning, Nicola Sturgeon said that if the UK votes
:13:08. > :13:12.to leave the EU, that could trigger a second referendum. But if she does
:13:13. > :13:16.not have a mandate for that in her manifesto, how would she then
:13:17. > :13:24.trigger it? It seems to be a bit of a mess. In your view, there should
:13:25. > :13:30.be something. But it would have to be an stark commitment. If Scotland
:13:31. > :13:39.votes yes, and the rest of the UK votes no, we will do this? They will
:13:40. > :13:45.not know by the time of the Woodward collection -- Holyrood elections,
:13:46. > :13:48.but I think the house to be something in the manifesto which
:13:49. > :13:49.said it could happen. Like you both very much.
:13:50. > :13:54.I will be back at the same time next week.