:00:36. > :00:43.Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join
:00:44. > :00:45.the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,
:00:46. > :00:48.that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure
:00:49. > :00:51.The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.
:00:52. > :00:54.We'll have the latest on this developing row.
:00:55. > :00:57.This woman claims to be the voice of business -
:00:58. > :01:00.and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.
:01:01. > :01:02.But is the business case that clear cut?
:01:03. > :01:07.We speak to the Director General of the CBI.
:01:08. > :01:10.When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,
:01:11. > :01:11.which is better: telephone polls or online polls?
:01:12. > :01:16.Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.
:01:17. > :01:19.And I tell you what, if I don't know,
:01:20. > :01:22.having done all this opinion polling for lark for 21 years,
:01:23. > :01:26.Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:
:01:27. > :01:31.for the Deputy First Minister - we're talking live to John Swinney
:01:32. > :01:39.as he takes up his new post in charge of education.
:01:40. > :01:42.in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt?
:01:43. > :01:45.And with me - as always - a political panel of the best
:01:46. > :01:48.and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way
:01:49. > :01:50.to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh
:01:51. > :01:54.who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:55. > :01:57.Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today.
:01:58. > :01:59.Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that
:02:00. > :02:02.Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable
:02:03. > :02:07.to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services.
:02:08. > :02:09.The Prime Minister was asked about the claims
:02:10. > :02:13.on the Robert Peston programme on ITV.
:02:14. > :02:17.Every country has a veto, and let's be clear,
:02:18. > :02:21.as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on
:02:22. > :02:24.the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades,
:02:25. > :02:27.literally decades, before this even had a prospect of
:02:28. > :02:32.happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no.
:02:33. > :02:35.Well, that was David Cameron this morning.
:02:36. > :02:46.But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010.
:02:47. > :02:50.But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010.
:02:51. > :02:57.It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be
:02:58. > :03:02.frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that
:03:03. > :03:07.Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So
:03:08. > :03:13.why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership
:03:14. > :03:16.and for greater influence at the top table of European diplomacy. The
:03:17. > :03:21.Prime Minister six years ago after becoming Prime Minister.
:03:22. > :03:29.Is it a proper issue for this referendum or is it a red herring?
:03:30. > :03:32.It is an issue and quite frankly, the Leave campaign will be delighted
:03:33. > :03:38.that we are now talking about Turkey, because every time you talk
:03:39. > :03:40.about Turkey, you conjure up the image of more migration,
:03:41. > :03:45.uncontrolled immigration from a poorer countries so it is a Leave
:03:46. > :03:56.win. I am not sure that the Prime Minister is right to engage in this
:03:57. > :03:59.one. But he has been called about this from someone whose judgment he
:04:00. > :04:07.also calls into question. But is a strange thing, his own Armed Forces
:04:08. > :04:13.Minister. The Prime Minister is right to say we have a veto, every
:04:14. > :04:16.EU member has a veto in new members, but if the Prime Minister is in
:04:17. > :04:22.favour of Turkey joining, which is said he was in Ankara, then the veto
:04:23. > :04:27.does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was the Prime
:04:28. > :04:31.Minister in 2010, when he set out Ray clearly what his position is. He
:04:32. > :04:38.supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be. It
:04:39. > :04:42.does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question
:04:43. > :04:47.is, will you use that veto? If he is saying we would use our veto against
:04:48. > :04:56.Turkey, that is big news and can we hear it? It would be a big U-turn.
:04:57. > :05:00.It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in
:05:01. > :05:03.the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation as we
:05:04. > :05:07.are focusing on our veto and the veto possessed by all existing EU
:05:08. > :05:14.members and not focusing on Turkey itself. Is that country as keen on
:05:15. > :05:19.joining as was a decade ago? The change and internal politics in
:05:20. > :05:23.Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing
:05:24. > :05:28.the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they
:05:29. > :05:31.were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on
:05:32. > :05:35.the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man.
:05:36. > :05:39.But it is entirely legitimate for Leave to play up this issue and
:05:40. > :05:42.every day we talk about migration is a day we're not spending talking
:05:43. > :05:49.about the economy and I think that is their only route to victory four
:05:50. > :05:52.weeks' time. There are plenty of forces in Germany and France, two
:05:53. > :05:57.countries about to have elections next year, who are not going to
:05:58. > :06:02.agree to Turkey joining any time soon. And if you were to be fair to
:06:03. > :06:08.the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010 in
:06:09. > :06:11.Ankara, me and a whole load of political hacks were in the room
:06:12. > :06:19.when he said it... Were you there? I was there. At one stage he says he
:06:20. > :06:25.was passionate about Turkish president. He was very keen to suck
:06:26. > :06:33.up to President Erdogan at the time because he wanted more trade. That
:06:34. > :06:37.was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything not just in
:06:38. > :06:40.British politics but for Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. It may
:06:41. > :06:48.be acceptable for the Prime Minister to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this
:06:49. > :06:51.issue. We will see as the day develops.
:06:52. > :06:54.So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health
:06:55. > :06:57.service would be worse off if we decide to leave the EU.
:06:58. > :06:59.Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article
:07:00. > :07:01.in the Sunday Times saying that they think,
:07:02. > :07:03.for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is
:07:04. > :07:07.Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.
:07:08. > :07:11.When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth,
:07:12. > :07:15.possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU,
:07:16. > :07:19.if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern
:07:20. > :07:24.for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous
:07:25. > :07:28.if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding,
:07:29. > :07:31.actually the economy goes into a tailspin and that funding
:07:32. > :07:36.Leave campaigners, unsurprisingly, take a different view -
:07:37. > :07:40.they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS
:07:41. > :07:43.due to continued free movement of people and the accession
:07:44. > :07:56.What is the relationship between our membership
:07:57. > :08:00.The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England
:08:01. > :08:02.from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from
:08:03. > :08:05.the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland,
:08:06. > :08:08.Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year.
:08:09. > :08:11.To put that in context, the total annual expenditure
:08:12. > :08:16.in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15.
:08:17. > :08:19.There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident
:08:20. > :08:25.in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services.
:08:26. > :08:31.All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave
:08:32. > :08:34.the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention.
:08:35. > :08:39.In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK.
:08:40. > :08:42.But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends
:08:43. > :08:47.on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit.
:08:48. > :08:52.NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries
:08:53. > :08:58.was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce.
:08:59. > :09:03.A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses
:09:04. > :09:08.and health visitors, come from other EU countries,
:09:09. > :09:11.however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote
:09:12. > :09:14.to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be,
:09:15. > :09:16.it is impossible to know if there would be any impact
:09:17. > :09:24.A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now
:09:25. > :09:29.campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union.
:09:30. > :09:38.Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the
:09:39. > :09:42.man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it
:09:43. > :09:47.would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your
:09:48. > :09:53.response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the
:09:54. > :09:59.NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now
:10:00. > :10:04.for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every
:10:05. > :10:10.part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent
:10:11. > :10:18.ten years in America, with an American health care company,
:10:19. > :10:22.effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the
:10:23. > :10:34.European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes
:10:35. > :10:41.it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health
:10:42. > :10:46.Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should
:10:47. > :10:51.stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively.
:10:52. > :10:55.He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine,
:10:56. > :11:01.but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is
:11:02. > :11:10.making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of
:11:11. > :11:15.his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option.
:11:16. > :11:21.Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in,
:11:22. > :11:26.with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU.
:11:27. > :11:31.-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the
:11:32. > :11:36.common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS
:11:37. > :11:41.procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in,
:11:42. > :11:46.because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It
:11:47. > :11:49.continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this
:11:50. > :11:54.present Conservative government, and it has continued under this
:11:55. > :11:58.Conservative government. If you treat health like water or
:11:59. > :12:04.electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers,
:12:05. > :12:10.then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the
:12:11. > :12:14.NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales,
:12:15. > :12:19.Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to
:12:20. > :12:22.health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you
:12:23. > :12:28.wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France,
:12:29. > :12:33.not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove,
:12:34. > :12:37.part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by
:12:38. > :12:44.continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5
:12:45. > :12:50.million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey,
:12:51. > :12:55.Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the
:12:56. > :13:03.cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse
:13:04. > :13:07.what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said
:13:08. > :13:11.in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European
:13:12. > :13:20.Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise
:13:21. > :13:27.the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory
:13:28. > :13:33.work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an
:13:34. > :13:36.accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to
:13:37. > :13:41.saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we
:13:42. > :13:48.were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the
:13:49. > :13:52.European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato,
:13:53. > :13:57.and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why?
:13:58. > :14:03.Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of
:14:04. > :14:08.Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around
:14:09. > :14:12.the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into
:14:13. > :14:17.the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come
:14:18. > :14:25.into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but
:14:26. > :14:33.without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign
:14:34. > :14:39.Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that
:14:40. > :14:44.Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are
:14:45. > :14:47.remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your
:14:48. > :14:52.commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change
:14:53. > :14:55.of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to
:14:56. > :15:01.speeding up Turkey's membership, and then does not deliver on it, what
:15:02. > :15:05.will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or
:15:06. > :15:08.rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato
:15:09. > :15:13.with very profound consequences. At will, in my view, come out of Nato
:15:14. > :15:16.the moment, let's treat Turkey with respect, let's try and ensure they
:15:17. > :15:20.make the necessary changes on human rights and in many other areas.
:15:21. > :15:25.There are a lot of worrying aspects about Turkish policy, but mention
:15:26. > :15:32.above the European Union in my view is not the issue. It is how to make
:15:33. > :15:37.them more committed to Europe. Don't avoid this question. If we are in
:15:38. > :15:42.the European Union, we are committed to freedom of movement of Labour in
:15:43. > :15:44.every aspect of EU membership. That is a problem. David Owen, thank you,
:15:45. > :15:48.we will have to leave it there. The Confederation Of British
:15:49. > :15:50.Industry calls itself the "voice of business",
:15:51. > :15:52.claiming to speak on behalf of 190,000 businesses,
:15:53. > :15:56.employing up to 7 million people. And according to the CBI,
:15:57. > :15:58.British businesses overwhelmingly back the idea of remaining
:15:59. > :16:00.in the EU. What's more, they've been
:16:01. > :16:05.encouraging their members to talk to staff about the referendum
:16:06. > :16:08.to give them "the choice to hear what impact a Brexit
:16:09. > :16:10.would have on company growth, their jobs and their
:16:11. > :16:12.local community". As you can imagine, Leave
:16:13. > :16:19.campaigners are not amused. The chair of the Vote Leave business
:16:20. > :16:22.council, John Longworth, a former director-general
:16:23. > :16:24.of the British Chambers Of Commerce, said the call was an
:16:25. > :16:26."anti-democratic abuse of power He added: "It's highly regrettable
:16:27. > :16:33.to see big corporate bosses plotting to gang up on their staff,
:16:34. > :16:38.and lecture them on how to vote." Well, we're joined
:16:39. > :16:39.now by the director general of the CBI,
:16:40. > :16:59.Carolyn Fairbairn. Welcome to the programme. Good
:17:00. > :17:02.morning. If big business told its workers how to vote in a general
:17:03. > :17:04.election, there would be broad, so why are you encouraging your members
:17:05. > :17:07.to warn their workers about the dangers of Brexit? That is not what
:17:08. > :17:09.we have said. We have said that people working today in economy want
:17:10. > :17:13.to hear from their employers about what it means on either side of the
:17:14. > :17:17.debate. That is not what you said, you said what impact Brexit would
:17:18. > :17:22.have on growth, jobs and the local community. Positive for negative.
:17:23. > :17:26.You did not say that? It is clear this is not about warning anybody.
:17:27. > :17:30.This is about the questions that people are now asking about what it
:17:31. > :17:36.means for them. We were clean about that. Most of your members, you
:17:37. > :17:40.claim, are in favour of staying in the European Union. The message
:17:41. > :17:44.going out to the workforce will be overwhelmingly about remaining in
:17:45. > :17:49.the EU. The main thing is that people who are going to vote on June
:17:50. > :17:53.23 have as good an understanding as they possibly can about what it
:17:54. > :17:59.means for their jobs, families and communities. That was the key
:18:00. > :18:03.message, nothing about telling people how to vote. We learned this
:18:04. > :18:07.week that one of your members, Circle, was planning uproar EU
:18:08. > :18:12.campaign with the Prime Minister, even before the renegotiations were
:18:13. > :18:16.finished. With the CBI or any of your members have similar
:18:17. > :18:23.discussions with the government? To my knowledge, no. The conversations
:18:24. > :18:28.that businesses, universities, all parts of our society have with
:18:29. > :18:31.government go on every day. Were you planning the pro-union-mac campaign
:18:32. > :18:39.with the government even before the renegotiations? No. But Circle was?
:18:40. > :18:44.No. Everything the CBI has done is a result of the things we have done
:18:45. > :18:49.and a half of our members. Circle has contracts with the government
:18:50. > :18:54.worth several million pounds. The taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was
:18:55. > :18:59.offering to help the Prime Minister do what he could to help keep
:19:00. > :19:02.Britain in the EU. It was a behind closed doors stitch up between big
:19:03. > :19:08.government and big business, wasn't it? The important thing is to
:19:09. > :19:14.understand what businesses across the country of all sizes are seeing.
:19:15. > :19:20.You're focusing on one company. What we are seeing is that the majority
:19:21. > :19:27.of businesses want to stay in the European Union. I understand that. I
:19:28. > :19:30.am asking you if the way this company has handled this... It
:19:31. > :19:35.smells of a stitch up? I do not think this is a stitch up. It is
:19:36. > :19:40.about voices of business being heard on issues of jobs, growth and the
:19:41. > :19:45.future prosperity of our country. People can make their decisions on
:19:46. > :19:48.polling day about a whole variety of factors, but businesses who are
:19:49. > :19:52.trading with the European Union everyday, having their voices
:19:53. > :20:02.clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard.
:20:03. > :20:05.He saw the Prime Minister, Mr Soames. This is what he did in the
:20:06. > :20:08.follow-up letter. He spoke about backing the prime and is to's
:20:09. > :20:11.campaign to keep us in the EU. This is even though the renegotiations
:20:12. > :20:18.were not finished. He went on to lobby for business. He said... He
:20:19. > :20:25.wants more business at the same time. It really does add to the
:20:26. > :20:29.sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not
:20:30. > :20:34.what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he
:20:35. > :20:39.wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as
:20:40. > :20:43.lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening
:20:44. > :20:48.all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for
:20:49. > :20:52.other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and
:20:53. > :20:59.Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are
:21:00. > :21:03.heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU
:21:04. > :21:06.because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000
:21:07. > :21:12.lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your
:21:13. > :21:16.kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in?
:21:17. > :21:20.I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the
:21:21. > :21:25.beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it
:21:26. > :21:28.is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We
:21:29. > :21:34.have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey.
:21:35. > :21:40.93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is
:21:41. > :21:46.all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members
:21:47. > :21:49.but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has
:21:50. > :21:56.forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8
:21:57. > :21:58.billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made
:21:59. > :22:04.by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big
:22:05. > :22:08.business but not public services? There are areas where we share
:22:09. > :22:12.sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe
:22:13. > :22:16.for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the
:22:17. > :22:21.rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The
:22:22. > :22:28.benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in
:22:29. > :22:31.tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC
:22:32. > :22:36.to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about
:22:37. > :22:43.lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax.
:22:44. > :22:46.That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses
:22:47. > :22:52.overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves
:22:53. > :22:59.that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not
:23:00. > :23:04.something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off.
:23:05. > :23:09.British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse
:23:10. > :23:16.off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion
:23:17. > :23:19.worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not
:23:20. > :23:25.know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the
:23:26. > :23:29.moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The
:23:30. > :23:35.CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we
:23:36. > :23:39.listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that
:23:40. > :23:47.when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI
:23:48. > :23:51.had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle
:23:52. > :23:57.of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people
:23:58. > :24:01.lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK
:24:02. > :24:08.membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were
:24:09. > :24:14.wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if
:24:15. > :24:19.you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were
:24:20. > :24:23.caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation
:24:24. > :24:29.of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had
:24:30. > :24:33.moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is
:24:34. > :24:38.about something very different. It is about the experience that we as
:24:39. > :24:41.an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived.
:24:42. > :24:47.We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man.
:24:48. > :24:51.His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The
:24:52. > :24:56.euro was about something which people were imagining in the future,
:24:57. > :25:00.a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your
:25:01. > :25:05.stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we
:25:06. > :25:12.remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You
:25:13. > :25:18.commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU.
:25:19. > :25:26.That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy
:25:27. > :25:31.will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would
:25:32. > :25:37.still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it
:25:38. > :25:41.would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have
:25:42. > :25:46.deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future.
:25:47. > :25:51.You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the
:25:52. > :25:56.short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and
:25:57. > :26:02.many others believe as well, is there could be significant
:26:03. > :26:08.short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your
:26:09. > :26:14.own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if
:26:15. > :26:20.we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are
:26:21. > :26:25.able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic
:26:26. > :26:30.assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We
:26:31. > :26:35.just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of
:26:36. > :26:40.course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not
:26:41. > :26:47.continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36%
:26:48. > :26:52.more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be
:26:53. > :26:58.a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to
:26:59. > :27:01.school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the
:27:02. > :27:06.difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would
:27:07. > :27:10.adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly
:27:11. > :27:15.an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that
:27:16. > :27:22.each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers
:27:23. > :27:29.have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do.
:27:30. > :27:35.It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put
:27:36. > :27:40.together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study.
:27:41. > :27:46.Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around
:27:47. > :27:52.it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK
:27:53. > :27:57.joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income
:27:58. > :28:02.to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result
:28:03. > :28:05.of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would
:28:06. > :28:10.support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never
:28:11. > :28:16.claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey
:28:17. > :28:24.of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research
:28:25. > :28:28.papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have
:28:29. > :28:30.got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the
:28:31. > :28:36.National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US
:28:37. > :28:43.Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure.
:28:44. > :28:47.You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we
:28:48. > :28:52.did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the
:28:53. > :28:57.other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read.
:28:58. > :29:00.It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased
:29:01. > :29:07.against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's
:29:08. > :29:12.respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real
:29:13. > :29:16.evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described
:29:17. > :29:20.it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We
:29:21. > :29:25.went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read
:29:26. > :29:29.the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of
:29:30. > :29:39.consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other
:29:40. > :29:43.papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for
:29:44. > :29:48.the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would
:29:49. > :29:54.be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are
:29:55. > :29:59.saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a
:30:00. > :30:03.result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards
:30:04. > :30:07.over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European
:30:08. > :30:11.Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on
:30:12. > :30:17.principle to join the euro? Absolutely not.
:30:18. > :30:23.Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the
:30:24. > :30:27.five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the
:30:28. > :30:31.conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign
:30:32. > :30:37.choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market,
:30:38. > :30:41.it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We
:30:42. > :30:51.have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a
:30:52. > :30:54.discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI
:30:55. > :30:59.welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a
:31:00. > :31:03.further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one
:31:04. > :31:07.thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the
:31:08. > :31:11.benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one
:31:12. > :31:16.thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very
:31:17. > :31:20.important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the
:31:21. > :31:24.European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate.
:31:25. > :31:27.Thank you. Depending on which polls you look
:31:28. > :31:29.at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU
:31:30. > :31:32.or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave
:31:33. > :31:36.Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile,
:31:37. > :31:39.gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both
:31:40. > :31:41.those polls were done Our society and our electorate
:31:42. > :31:50.is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet
:31:51. > :31:52.they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion,
:31:53. > :31:55.economic background, education, political views,
:31:56. > :32:02.and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore,
:32:03. > :32:06.can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question,
:32:07. > :32:12.but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly
:32:13. > :32:13.interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment
:32:14. > :32:17.in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate
:32:18. > :32:20.to varying degrees, and what makes
:32:21. > :32:23.political polling even harder is it is like trying to
:32:24. > :32:31.hit a moving target from a moving platform
:32:32. > :32:32.in the And you would think in this EU
:32:33. > :32:36.referendum the simplicity of the question would help,
:32:37. > :32:38.should we leave It makes the whole thing
:32:39. > :32:46.much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls
:32:47. > :32:49.giving very different signals. Given the problems
:32:50. > :32:50.pollsters had getting the general election right, and some
:32:51. > :32:56.of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck,
:32:57. > :32:58.some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in
:32:59. > :33:08.terms of working out When I apply different technical
:33:09. > :33:17.methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead
:33:18. > :33:19.in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not
:33:20. > :33:25.know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years,
:33:26. > :33:28.I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how
:33:29. > :33:32.the polls are done, how they get a truly
:33:33. > :33:35.representative sample of society in the first place,
:33:36. > :33:42.either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone
:33:43. > :33:44.of contention that in recent days has even
:33:45. > :33:46.spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become
:33:47. > :33:53.harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature
:33:54. > :33:58.self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be
:33:59. > :34:03.considered far more representative, but in recent years,
:34:04. > :34:06.the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard
:34:07. > :34:09.now to consider them to be So both modes have an element
:34:10. > :34:13.of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about
:34:14. > :34:17.about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote
:34:18. > :34:20.or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines
:34:21. > :34:26.or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before
:34:27. > :34:29.have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who,
:34:30. > :34:34.with online polling, And phone contact through
:34:35. > :34:40.persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are
:34:41. > :34:44.harder to get hold of. Would it be all right
:34:45. > :34:50.if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative
:34:51. > :34:56.amongst some pollsters that phone polling
:34:57. > :34:58.is probably the more accurate, which,
:34:59. > :34:59.given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check
:35:00. > :35:07.them to see we have the right number of people who vote,
:35:08. > :35:09.do we believe that all the people
:35:10. > :35:12.in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually
:35:13. > :35:13.will, are we missing people who really just do not care
:35:14. > :35:20.about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote,
:35:21. > :35:22.are we missing the great unwashed who do
:35:23. > :35:24.not have degrees? All those things,
:35:25. > :35:26.when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is
:35:27. > :35:28.still ahead. We would have to be very,
:35:29. > :35:31.very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the
:35:32. > :35:34.polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels
:35:35. > :35:37.of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly
:35:38. > :35:39.pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters
:35:40. > :35:43.YouGov have conducted some phone polling
:35:44. > :35:49.about phone polling. What we found from that comparison,
:35:50. > :35:52.both to the national picture and to our online polls,
:35:53. > :35:56.was that telephone polls were underestimating the people
:35:57. > :35:59.who are not university educated, and that is
:36:00. > :36:03.hugely important in the EU referendum because we know
:36:04. > :36:05.that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words,
:36:06. > :36:08.one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing
:36:09. > :36:11.potential Leave voters. Online are accused
:36:12. > :36:18.of overstating them, there are two other that vital:
:36:19. > :36:27.are are you going to vote? Turnout will be
:36:28. > :36:28.crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours
:36:29. > :36:31.Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't
:36:32. > :36:34.knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed
:36:35. > :36:35.answers, and four weeks to go,
:36:36. > :36:38.most pollsters might reasonably fear
:36:39. > :36:40.the result of a poll that asked us all,
:36:41. > :36:42."Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35,
:36:43. > :36:50.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:36:51. > :36:58.in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome
:36:59. > :37:00.to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme:
:37:01. > :37:03.John Swinney will be talking to us about the challenges of his new role
:37:04. > :37:20.as Education Secretary. To make sure that we close the
:37:21. > :37:23.attainment gap. To ensure that we fulfil our commitment to the
:37:24. > :37:27.What are the key issues in the EU referendum?
:37:28. > :37:28.We ask a leading academic for his view.
:37:29. > :37:31.And do the campaigners for Leave and Remain agree?
:37:32. > :37:33.The new Education Secretary, John Swinney, set out his priorities
:37:34. > :37:36.when he visited his old school on Friday.
:37:37. > :37:40.The focus for the Scottish Government is on reducing
:37:41. > :37:41.the attainment gap in Scottish schools.
:37:42. > :37:43.Mr Swinney says funding is already in place,
:37:44. > :37:47.but more needs to be done to improve the chances of pupils
:37:48. > :37:51.But critics say that under the SNP the gulf has widened,
:37:52. > :37:54.and more needs to be spent on early years education.
:37:55. > :38:15.If you've ever been the new kid in class you will know who don think it
:38:16. > :38:22.can be. Good morning. How are you doing? Trying to make friends well
:38:23. > :38:28.keeping the teachers happy is not easy and that is the challenge John
:38:29. > :38:34.Swinney faces, this week taking charge of Scotland's's education
:38:35. > :38:36.system at a crucial time. At the moment SNP ministers say things are
:38:37. > :38:40.system at a crucial time. At the good but not good enough. They want
:38:41. > :38:46.Scotland's education system to be the best in the world. We will make
:38:47. > :38:49.sure that young people have the opportunity regardless of
:38:50. > :38:54.background, to further and higher education. This is what I will
:38:55. > :38:59.concentrate on taking forward. The Government has set its sights on
:39:00. > :39:02.closing what is known as the attainment gap between pupils from
:39:03. > :39:07.the most and least deprived backgrounds. The First Minister has
:39:08. > :39:11.made it her mission. Improving school attainment is arguably the
:39:12. > :39:15.single most important objective in this programme for Government.
:39:16. > :39:23.Improving its overall and closing the gap between children in most and
:39:24. > :39:28.least deprived areas is fundamental. My aim to put it bluntly as to cause
:39:29. > :39:33.that attainment gap. Not by a pit but to calls that attainment gap
:39:34. > :39:37.completely. It will not be done overnight, I accept that, but that
:39:38. > :39:41.must be done. We intend to make significant
:39:42. > :39:44.progress on closing the attainment gap within the next parliament and
:39:45. > :39:51.to substantially eliminate it with than a decade and that is a
:39:52. > :39:57.commitment I ask to be judged on. But the Scottish Government as where
:39:58. > :39:59.that there is no magic formula for closing the gap and education
:40:00. > :40:06.experts say there is lot to consider. Our least advantaged
:40:07. > :40:11.children, only 60% of them are doing well or doing very well at this too,
:40:12. > :40:18.with as 90% of the richer pupils are doing well. It is a big attainment
:40:19. > :40:23.gap. It is likely that that gap comes out of a lot of small
:40:24. > :40:27.inequalities and is the cumulative effect of that rather than any one
:40:28. > :40:31.big thing. We know that schools on their own are not responsible for
:40:32. > :40:37.the gap that actually schools work with other agencies, they could make
:40:38. > :40:41.a difference to closing it. But as the Government embarks on its big
:40:42. > :40:45.plan to do exactly that conservatives head girl for
:40:46. > :40:50.education says things have actually been getting worse. We have not had
:40:51. > :40:53.enough focus on the basic skills. One of the things that the
:40:54. > :40:57.Conservative Party argues strongly is that when it comes to teacher
:40:58. > :41:01.training those who are going to that process have said that they wanted
:41:02. > :41:05.more focus on the ability to teach children to read, write and count
:41:06. > :41:09.properly and that is hugely important. John Swinney says he is
:41:10. > :41:12.aware of the challenge ahead and official figures last year showed a
:41:13. > :41:15.drop in the touristy standards in some areas, the message is, must do
:41:16. > :41:17.better. Listening to that in our Dundee
:41:18. > :41:31.studio is the new Cabinet Secretary Are you excited by this job you have
:41:32. > :41:37.taken on or are you feeling a bit daunted by it? A bit of both. I am
:41:38. > :41:41.excited by the challenge and the opportunity I have been given to
:41:42. > :41:45.read a process of change and development in education, to work to
:41:46. > :41:50.make Scottish education world class. But I go into this with my eyes wide
:41:51. > :41:54.open. There are some significant challenges that have to be addressed
:41:55. > :42:00.and I want to deploy my energy and my skill to take that forward. I am
:42:01. > :42:02.hugely excited by it. I am thrilled with the opportunity to be Education
:42:03. > :42:24.Secretary but I do not underestimate the scale of the
:42:25. > :42:26.challenge. You are used to dealing with finance. It is all hard
:42:27. > :42:29.numbers. You either have a budget deficit or you do not. You set a
:42:30. > :42:31.budget. You have all the targets. But closing the attainment gap in
:42:32. > :42:35.education is a much less precise thing, as it's not? The danger is
:42:36. > :42:37.that will feel like you are pushing a piece of string. The attainment
:42:38. > :42:43.gap is measurable. We have got your measurements. But in the package
:42:44. > :42:46.that you just short, the professor said the attainment gap would not be
:42:47. > :42:51.caused by one single instrument but by a variety of different measures
:42:52. > :42:55.that we take. At the key thing is that we have absolute clarity that
:42:56. > :43:00.the purpose of my approach as Education Secretary is to close that
:43:01. > :43:05.attainment gap. That becomes the most central part of the education
:43:06. > :43:12.direction and Scotland. What are we talking about? It is not clear even
:43:13. > :43:16.what we are starting with year. A lot of people have talked about the
:43:17. > :43:20.attainment gap being the number of people from relatively background to
:43:21. > :43:29.get to university. Is that what you mean? I mean that's the attainment
:43:30. > :43:35.gap becomes clear from the youngest ages of young people within
:43:36. > :43:38.Scotland. From the start of primary school that is clear that children
:43:39. > :43:43.from the most deprived backgrounds compare two children from the least
:43:44. > :43:47.deprived backgrounds are significantly disadvantaged even at
:43:48. > :43:51.that stage of their progress in education. I need to focus on making
:43:52. > :43:54.sure that all of us who take forward the work to support young people
:43:55. > :44:00.within Scotland from the very earliest stages, all of that is
:44:01. > :44:04.going -- not all of that will be in the schools, some of it will be in
:44:05. > :44:15.community services and health care. But we are focused on the earliest
:44:16. > :44:18.stages of making sure that. And the various stages during the
:44:19. > :44:21.educational clear we have to take steps to make sure we close that
:44:22. > :44:25.educational clear we have to take gap. But just to be clear on this,
:44:26. > :44:29.Nicola Sturgeon has said not just that she wants her Government to be
:44:30. > :44:33.judged on progress and this but she wants herself as First Minister to
:44:34. > :44:37.be judged. When you see close the attainment gap are you saying you
:44:38. > :44:42.want measurable benchmarks and that it is not just about the number of
:44:43. > :44:48.people from deprived backgrounds getting into university? You seem to
:44:49. > :44:53.be suggesting that you want a series of benchmarks that every stage
:44:54. > :45:03.throughout their school career, for example at the end of primary seven,
:45:04. > :45:07.third-year, but the gap is closing. There is that what you are saying?
:45:08. > :45:11.If you look at the National improvement framework published in
:45:12. > :45:15.January that is what we set out? We set out the desire to make sure that
:45:16. > :45:20.at these stages in the educational clear of young people in Scotland we
:45:21. > :45:27.are able to see whether or not the attainment gap is narrowing or
:45:28. > :45:34.growing. We have discussed drab statistics for many years. These are
:45:35. > :45:39.not drab statistics. These are lives. Exciting statistics, do not
:45:40. > :45:44.do yourself down. These are about the life chances of people in
:45:45. > :45:46.Scotland and cannot be anything more significant or precious than
:45:47. > :45:50.transforming the life chances of children in our country. We cannot
:45:51. > :45:55.afford to leave it until young people are 17 or 18 to find out how
:45:56. > :45:59.many of them go to university. We have to be able to arrest that and
:46:00. > :46:05.intervene in that at a much earlier stage. That is why we put such
:46:06. > :46:08.emphasis on the expansion of early years education and childcare within
:46:09. > :46:14.Scotland, that we begin to tackle some of these difficulties as early
:46:15. > :46:19.we possibly can. On Friday I spent an marvellous amount of time in a
:46:20. > :46:24.primary school in Edinburgh where I saw some two-year-olds involved in
:46:25. > :46:28.nursery education in Scotland, our youngest citizens, coming from
:46:29. > :46:32.deprived backgrounds, getting well supported and nurtured and
:46:33. > :46:35.encouraged and motivated and it was fantastic to watch the efforts that
:46:36. > :46:39.were put in to try to transform the life chances of these young
:46:40. > :46:45.individuals in Scotland. Before you start doing things, what is your
:46:46. > :46:50.analysis? Figures show that people from deprived backgrounds in
:46:51. > :46:54.Scotland, well in England, are twice as likely to go to university than
:46:55. > :46:58.in Scotland and in Wales and Northern Ireland the figures again
:46:59. > :47:02.are much better than in Scotland. Scotland appears to be lagging in
:47:03. > :47:06.that department considerably and progress seems to be slower than in
:47:07. > :47:12.England. Why is anyone doing so much better? The key thing is that
:47:13. > :47:14.performance industry spec is improving in Scotland. Young people
:47:15. > :47:21.are more likely to go to university from deprived backgrounds. Why the
:47:22. > :47:25.gap? The gap is there as a product of the issues in the attainment gap
:47:26. > :47:29.that perfectly all the way through the system within Scotland. That is
:47:30. > :47:36.why I said in my previous answer it is important... Why should England
:47:37. > :47:41.be doing so much better? Ultimately the answers lie for Scotland in
:47:42. > :47:45.ensuring that we have a very strong teaching profession with high
:47:46. > :47:50.quality teaching, close connections between schools and the wider
:47:51. > :47:53.community, and families in particular, so that families are
:47:54. > :47:57.involved in the learning process, and it is vital that they
:47:58. > :48:00.concentrate on having clear and effective and by night leadership
:48:01. > :48:05.throughout the education system within Scotland. In those three
:48:06. > :48:09.areas, quality of the teaching profession, the role of families and
:48:10. > :48:12.community within education, importance of leadership, these will
:48:13. > :48:16.be the key questions that I would cut in the early stages, that I
:48:17. > :48:19.discussed with the broad range of stakeholders that there are thin the
:48:20. > :48:24.system in Scotland, to make sure that we use all of our energies to
:48:25. > :48:28.tackle what is clearly a unified objective of everybody in education
:48:29. > :48:32.that I have heard talking about that, the closing of the attainment
:48:33. > :48:36.gap and Scott, and that will be my central mission in the course of the
:48:37. > :48:41.next parliamentary term. The new national tests that you intend to
:48:42. > :48:49.produce, I presumed it will be standardised across all schools?
:48:50. > :48:52.Yes. They will be marked externally? What we are involved in discussion
:48:53. > :48:58.about is how we can deliver standardised assessments so that we
:48:59. > :49:00.can see in a much richer and deeper way the comparisons of educational
:49:01. > :49:06.performance between individuals and between areas and between schools,
:49:07. > :49:09.so that we can understand how we can best intervene to support the
:49:10. > :49:12.so that we can understand how we can development of young people within
:49:13. > :49:16.Scotland. We are involved in a conversation about how assessments
:49:17. > :49:20.can be taken forward. I am determined to take forward in our
:49:21. > :49:24.fashion that does not add to the workload of the teaching profession
:49:25. > :49:29.but actually simplifies the workload of the teaching profession, and that
:49:30. > :49:32.they do this in a fashion that we obtain meaningful comparisons about
:49:33. > :49:41.performance in different areas, so that we can see the necessary
:49:42. > :49:44.actions. I understand the point you are making but a lot of parents
:49:45. > :49:50.watching this will take the view that these have to be marked
:49:51. > :49:54.externally. You cannot have teachers marking the results of their own
:49:55. > :49:57.students or we're not going to have a proper system where we can measure
:49:58. > :50:03.the performance of schools across Scotland. Again I ask you, will be
:50:04. > :50:10.marked externally? Fundamentally qualifications framework of Scott
:50:11. > :50:16.and is independently taken forward. I have no intention of changing that
:50:17. > :50:21.position. I have no intention of directing attention away from the
:50:22. > :50:21.importance of independent certification of qualifications
:50:22. > :50:32.within Scotland. I understand that but it is a very
:50:33. > :50:36.simple question of whether these new test will be marked externally, it
:50:37. > :50:40.is a straightforward question. It will feed from age to age. When we
:50:41. > :50:46.are looking at standardised assessments which will be taken in
:50:47. > :50:53.primary one classes within Scotland I do not see the need for those to
:50:54. > :50:58.be independently... Give me a little bit of time to work out specifically
:50:59. > :51:02.the detail of how we will take that forward, Gordon, because you are
:51:03. > :51:08.asking me to go to a very precise point and I am not prepared to go
:51:09. > :51:10.there just days into the job of being the Education Secretary. I am
:51:11. > :51:14.setting out the importance of understanding the relative and
:51:15. > :51:17.comparative forms of individuals so we can use that information to
:51:18. > :51:22.support improvements with improvements required to be made. I
:51:23. > :51:26.think that is a well understood principle to make sure every young
:51:27. > :51:29.person in Scotland gets the education they deserve. Pavements
:51:30. > :51:34.will be given the results of these tests, will be, in an informative
:51:35. > :51:37.way so they can know about your child. There have been all these
:51:38. > :51:42.worries about league tables but the other side of this is that it will
:51:43. > :51:46.use this sensibly so you can take schools with similar intakes and
:51:47. > :51:50.some might be doing better than others, will pavements be given data
:51:51. > :51:54.so the norm not just how dear child is doing but whether there school
:51:55. > :52:00.might be doing better than other schools with similar intakes in the
:52:01. > :52:03.area, or worse? Parents getting a lot of information about the
:52:04. > :52:07.educational performance of their children. I am the parent of a five
:52:08. > :52:11.on child in the primary education system in Scotland and we get a
:52:12. > :52:16.tremendous amount of information from the school about the
:52:17. > :52:18.performance of our son, and he is developing, the challenges he has
:52:19. > :52:22.and the performance of the school in general so of course that will be
:52:23. > :52:26.done in a transparent fashion but the key thing is that has to be done
:52:27. > :52:30.in a consistent fashion we can see where there are steps to be required
:52:31. > :52:34.to improve performance in different parts of the country to ensure no
:52:35. > :52:39.young person in Scotland is unable to prosper through the education
:52:40. > :52:46.system anyway it would be useful for them to do so. Dean is a threat, not
:52:47. > :52:50.necessarily of strike action but of work to rule or some form of
:52:51. > :52:57.industrial action from the EIS over the workload issue, have you managed
:52:58. > :53:02.to head that off yet? I have only been in the office for four days so
:53:03. > :53:05.I have not been able to get there yet but I want to have meaningful
:53:06. > :53:13.discussions with the whole range of stakeholders. I see to everyone you
:53:14. > :53:21.have people prepared to listen to the issues and challenges. My issue
:53:22. > :53:24.is to close the attainment gap in Scottish education. I do not think
:53:25. > :53:28.of a better aim to have and I am immensely privileged to have that.
:53:29. > :53:34.Just give me a little space and time to deliver on these issues and my
:53:35. > :53:37.top by auditing. I can't believe you sat there and said all the stats you
:53:38. > :53:43.have been talking to us about 14 new tab in drab but who you are. We have
:53:44. > :53:50.undoubtedly been drab but made more drab by our conversations!
:53:51. > :53:52.One bookmakers cut the odds yesterday for a UK vote to remain
:53:53. > :53:57.But whether people vote to remain or to leave the EU,
:53:58. > :53:59.a leading academic says there are four significant issues
:54:00. > :54:02.Professor Michael Keating, of the University of Aberdeen,
:54:03. > :54:04.and Director of the Centre for Constitutional Change,
:54:05. > :54:10.is in our Edinburgh studio to explain.
:54:11. > :54:17.Hopefully without any drab statistics! Michael Keating, let's
:54:18. > :54:23.just go through them in order and see where we are. The first thing
:54:24. > :54:27.you see is the economy now there is a widespread perception that the
:54:28. > :54:32.Remain people have pretty much one the argument about that and the
:54:33. > :54:36.Leave people are keen to talk about absolutely anything else, especially
:54:37. > :54:40.immigration, is that your view? There have been a lot of things
:54:41. > :54:45.bandied about on both sides of this debate about whether or not we will
:54:46. > :54:50.be better off in or out and the fact is we do not know. Economics is not
:54:51. > :54:54.a precise signs of prediction. It depends what assumptions you make,
:54:55. > :55:00.what policy decisions are made and what the options are for remaining
:55:01. > :55:04.in or coming out, they are multiple. It is far easier to focus on the
:55:05. > :55:09.single market, the arrangement we have with the European Union which
:55:10. > :55:13.allows for a free movement of goods, services, capital and Labour and
:55:14. > :55:20.whether we really need that arrangement. Remain see we need that
:55:21. > :55:23.a deep trading arrangement with the rest of the European Union and
:55:24. > :55:27.therefore we have to accept everything that goes with it. The
:55:28. > :55:32.Leave people are divided, some say we could keep the free single market
:55:33. > :55:36.because we need it and others say we could manage perfectly well without
:55:37. > :55:42.it. Your article was really about what has to be focused on. You think
:55:43. > :55:45.the Leave people need to come up with one additive about what would
:55:46. > :55:50.happen if we vote to leave rather than these mutually exclusive
:55:51. > :55:55.narratives which they have at the moment? That only people would want
:55:56. > :55:59.to know that. One is the normally option that is you keep the single
:56:00. > :56:04.market but you have to accept all the rules of the single market, you
:56:05. > :56:05.do not have any say in making all these rules. The other option is to
:56:06. > :56:10.not have the special arrangement these rules. The other option is to
:56:11. > :56:14.with Europe. Trade on the single market under the trade organisation
:56:15. > :56:19.and go it on our own. Those are different options. Both of them are
:56:20. > :56:25.viable. Owing it alone, coming out of the European single market, would
:56:26. > :56:29.require changes in our economic structure such as New Zealand went
:56:30. > :56:32.through 30 years or so ago but they are very viable but I think people
:56:33. > :56:38.would want to know what is the option without going to get?
:56:39. > :56:42.Sovereignty is one of the other issues you identified, isn't it? You
:56:43. > :56:46.think that is one where perhaps Leave have the advantage because
:56:47. > :56:51.they can say whichever way you cut this up, whichever way you dice this
:56:52. > :56:55.Britain will have more sovereignty inside the EU than outside it? It
:56:56. > :57:02.would because it would not have too but they things that were political
:57:03. > :57:05.in this country but if we want to get the single market we have to
:57:06. > :57:10.accept the single market rules which gets us back to Norway and
:57:11. > :57:13.Switzerland which are formerly sovereign but have two up by single
:57:14. > :57:17.market rules so they really have no choice in the matter. Immigration
:57:18. > :57:21.which flows directly from that because if you are part of the
:57:22. > :57:27.single market you would in fact have to accept free movement of Labour
:57:28. > :57:33.but immigration, it is one of these big emotional issues in this debate,
:57:34. > :57:36.isn't it? Yes, and we have two separate the general issue of
:57:37. > :57:40.migration from the question of Europe the membership and the free
:57:41. > :57:46.movement of workers which is due to the European Union. A migration
:57:47. > :57:50.crisis, movement from outside the euro in union, this is another
:57:51. > :57:54.matter. One of the things David Cameron was told very firmly when he
:57:55. > :57:58.started his renegotiation was the principle of free movement of
:57:59. > :58:01.workers within the European Union is untouchable. If you want to have the
:58:02. > :58:05.rest of the free market, the single market you have to have that and
:58:06. > :58:10.Switzerland tried to reach this and was told in no uncertain terms you
:58:11. > :58:15.cannot do it. Only any cleaner really about the issues after weeks
:58:16. > :58:18.of hearing that both sides work beating each other over the heads
:58:19. > :58:23.and insulting each other than be read at the beginning? These are
:58:24. > :58:27.complex issues. These are extremely complex issues. I think we were
:58:28. > :58:31.getting close to the issue two three weeks ago folks on the single
:58:32. > :58:35.market, migration, issues of sovereignty but recently and we have
:58:36. > :58:42.still a month to go, both sides have been producing some while addictions
:58:43. > :58:44.as to what can happen taking it well beyond the issues of integration
:58:45. > :58:50.itself and the European Union talking about a terrorism, third
:58:51. > :58:54.World wards and so on. It is starting to confuse the electorate.
:58:55. > :58:56.Brian Montieth from the Leave EU campaign is in our Edinburgh
:58:57. > :58:58.studio and John Edward from Scotland Stronger in Europe
:58:59. > :59:11.Is it your view, John Edward, that the economy is your strongest suit?
:59:12. > :59:14.It is one of the strongest suits certainly because that is what an
:59:15. > :59:17.economic community and the single market was all about and where we
:59:18. > :59:21.are fairly clear that staying in this status quo gives us access and
:59:22. > :59:26.trade across the 20 member states and one thing we about on the Leave
:59:27. > :59:30.side is either is no blueprint and the White Paper. It seems to us that
:59:31. > :59:34.everyone is out of step except our job and all the international bodies
:59:35. > :59:37.and mean allies suggest for trading purposes and servers as it would be
:59:38. > :59:41.good to stay in and I think we are probably on the right of that. Ryan
:59:42. > :59:43.McGeever from your own point of view and you think it is important
:59:44. > :59:49.McGeever from your own point of view Leave side get a single narrative on
:59:50. > :59:53.what exactly it is they want us to do if we leave the European Union
:59:54. > :59:56.because as Michael Keating was pointing out the various options
:59:57. > :00:02.being pursued at the moment are mutually exclusive. Absolutely not.
:00:03. > :00:07.I think it would be a big mistake of the Leave campaign to have a single
:00:08. > :00:12.narrative. We saw in the referendum campaign for Scotland having a
:00:13. > :00:17.single narrative it became a target to be taken down. It was a wicker
:00:18. > :00:23.man that was eventually burnt to senders. I think what has to be
:00:24. > :00:27.explained as that one be bought to leave we gain that sense of
:00:28. > :00:30.sovereignty, that sense of taking control of our destiny and at that
:00:31. > :00:34.point we can negotiate and decide what our narrative can become so it
:00:35. > :00:36.is not for the weak campaigners to dig 18 additive to actually put
:00:37. > :00:43.forward what the opportunities are dig 18 additive to actually put
:00:44. > :00:46.that they can offer us and while I think that is what they should be
:00:47. > :00:50.doing I would like to see them doing more of it cause I think they have
:00:51. > :00:54.in court on the back foot in the economy and they do need to try a
:00:55. > :00:59.lot harder on it. We do have the arguments. Immigration, John Edward,
:01:00. > :01:04.that is an argument with the remains I guileless, four double closet is
:01:05. > :01:08.all very well saying if we left we would still have to have the
:01:09. > :01:12.movement of Labour but that does not get you pass the point that if we
:01:13. > :01:15.vote to remain the most certainly will have the movement of Labour and
:01:16. > :01:21.that is the thing that troubles many of the people who want to vote to
:01:22. > :01:26.get out? We will have free movement of Labour, of course, which is not
:01:27. > :01:30.the same as free movement of people. People who want to come here to work
:01:31. > :01:33.have to have a job to come to and it is exactly the same for British
:01:34. > :01:37.people who expect the same level of protection when they go overseas to
:01:38. > :01:42.work at it is important we do not allow people to complete this with
:01:43. > :01:44.the historic issue up people on the move from Syria which is a
:01:45. > :01:48.once-in-a-lifetime problem which we have to do with whether we are in
:01:49. > :01:53.Europe or out of it but a free market is something I thought a
:01:54. > :01:58.country like Scotland, very reliant on services, should be supportive of
:01:59. > :02:01.and we might talk for the best any situation where the double tear
:02:02. > :02:07.itself there's it would take years to negotiate a position. It seems an
:02:08. > :02:09.odd way to look forward. Under European law you have to have a
:02:10. > :02:14.odd way to look forward. Under to come here is not strictly true,
:02:15. > :02:18.it is not true at all, John Edward? The right of free movement applies
:02:19. > :02:22.to workers so you have the right to come here at if you're expecting the
:02:23. > :02:30.Social Security and benefits that come with what you have to have a
:02:31. > :02:33.job to come to. It is that simple. It was the same for construction
:02:34. > :02:42.workers going to Germany in the 1980s. Brian Menteith. The migration
:02:43. > :02:45.issue is important in Scotland. I can assure you the people I know who
:02:46. > :02:50.are doing public meetings are and down the country have been surprised
:02:51. > :02:54.to find at these meetings what is raised that they do not expect to be
:02:55. > :02:58.raised is the migrant, economic migrant issue. From Orkney and
:02:59. > :03:03.Shetland, Inverness, areas you might think being on the polyphony of
:03:04. > :03:08.Scotland never mind Europe, it is raised. Raised not as an issue of
:03:09. > :03:11.race or religion but he will have great concerns about the stress is
:03:12. > :03:21.placed on public services and that is why it comes up. Sovereignty,
:03:22. > :03:25.Brian Menteith, a big issue, how do you reply to the point you are in
:03:26. > :03:29.favour of staying in Natal. As part of Nato we would be committed to
:03:30. > :03:34.actually going to war under certain conditions because of that alliance
:03:35. > :03:37.and in the world we would pull sovereignty and the sovereignty we
:03:38. > :03:46.would pool in the European Union is potentially much less catastrophic
:03:47. > :03:52.than the sovereignty we rule through ordinations -- organisations like
:03:53. > :03:55.Natal. I think the main concern is that what has happened in regard to
:03:56. > :04:01.the creation of our laws and the overseeing of our laws such as
:04:02. > :04:05.minimum pricing of alcohol, we have lost the power to create our own
:04:06. > :04:10.laws. That was finally to the European court of justice so there
:04:11. > :04:16.is an issue the in comparison to the security which Nato has divided and
:04:17. > :04:22.that cataclysmic safeguard that you are illustrating has protected us
:04:23. > :04:32.but do we need that type of pooling of sovereignty to have rules about
:04:33. > :04:33.the pricing of whiskey, vodka, or Buckfast and Scottish shops? I don't
:04:34. > :04:49.think so. This is a line I have heard a few
:04:50. > :04:52.times in the last few weeks. What the European Court said it is not
:04:53. > :04:56.for them to decide if this is the best way for the Scottish
:04:57. > :05:01.Government, but the suggestion they put forward is that there are other
:05:02. > :05:05.ways than taxation. They passed it back to the national courts. Brian
:05:06. > :05:12.can chuckle all he wants but he knows that to be true. The fact that
:05:13. > :05:17.it even reached the European courts is the point. There is an equal
:05:18. > :05:22.standard of law across Europe. That is what makes it different from
:05:23. > :05:28.Nato. Brian and myself and everybody else has access to the law and its
:05:29. > :05:33.protections. It is easy to laugh at this as regulation but it matters to
:05:34. > :05:39.people's lives. Brian, if you had a different hat on, you would be
:05:40. > :05:43.saying that the SNP only wants minimum pricing because they do not
:05:44. > :05:46.have powers over taxation of alcohol. Of course they would like
:05:47. > :05:51.them because they would like independence but what they are doing
:05:52. > :05:54.is trying to get power through the back door. He would be sneering at
:05:55. > :06:07.them rather than come cleaning about the European union. I have no love
:06:08. > :06:12.for the European union -- I have no love for minimum pricing, but I
:06:13. > :06:14.think it should be taken by Scottish politicians who are accountable. It
:06:15. > :06:20.think it should be taken by Scottish should not need to be referred as it
:06:21. > :06:24.has been with those interested in spirit production, to the European
:06:25. > :06:28.Court. We should have our own sovereignty to defend that.
:06:29. > :06:30.Time to review the past week and look ahead to what's coming
:06:31. > :06:37.Joining me now is David Clegg, the Political Editor
:06:38. > :06:38.at the Daily Record, and Kieran Andrews,
:06:39. > :06:54.David, education, what did you make of what John Swinney was seeing? The
:06:55. > :06:59.most striking thing was that he was quite candid about the scale of the
:07:00. > :07:05.challenge facing him. To be honest he is underplaying it even by doing
:07:06. > :07:11.that. The attainment gap is very big already. It appears to be growing.
:07:12. > :07:15.There does not seem to be any idea of putting more resources in. The
:07:16. > :07:20.main thing you need is more teachers and smaller class sizes but that
:07:21. > :07:24.does not seem to be figuring too heavy on the radar. The other thing
:07:25. > :07:33.that I thought was interesting, it has not been clear up until now,
:07:34. > :07:42.they have staked their reputation on, it is clear they want outcomes
:07:43. > :07:46.at each stage in a child's progress including if they get into
:07:47. > :07:50.university, which is increasing the standards that they need to be
:07:51. > :07:56.judged successfully. It is a neat way of standardised testing which is
:07:57. > :08:07.proving controversial as a policy from the SNP. And if teachers are
:08:08. > :08:13.having to mark these papers as well as teach their classes day to day
:08:14. > :08:19.and do whatever else, it is not a nine until half past three job,
:08:20. > :08:23.having to mark tests will put more strain on the teacher profession and
:08:24. > :08:28.cause more headaches for John Swinney down the line. The real
:08:29. > :08:34.issue with testing is that these things to be credible have to be
:08:35. > :08:39.externally marked. Perhaps not in primary one and primary for, but he
:08:40. > :08:50.seems to concede the point that in primary seven and S3 they have to
:08:51. > :08:52.be. There is also a confused message because there will be subjective
:08:53. > :09:03.teacher view taken into account as well. The SNP seems to have a mixed
:09:04. > :09:08.message there. As I understand that what they said was that the
:09:09. > :09:11.published information about the result of the tests might be the raw
:09:12. > :09:14.published information about the data supplemented by some teacher
:09:15. > :09:19.assessment. I take your point that that inevitably makes it subjective,
:09:20. > :09:22.but of course internally they would still have the raw data, so
:09:23. > :09:25.presumably internally they would be able to say that the school which
:09:26. > :09:30.has roughly the same pupil intake as the school and it is dreadful, we
:09:31. > :09:35.had better do something about it. That brings you back to the problem
:09:36. > :09:38.of week tables, which Nicola Sturgeon said she is keen to avoid,
:09:39. > :09:42.but what is the point in collating data to judge how people are doing
:09:43. > :09:48.if you are not good to use some form of tabling? They could see the could
:09:49. > :09:52.use it internally as education managers without actually publishing
:09:53. > :10:00.it. It makes me uncomfortable that notion about how we will be able to
:10:01. > :10:04.monitor what the Government is doing if there is one set of data that is
:10:05. > :10:10.internal and another set that is different. One thing I will say
:10:11. > :10:16.about John Swinney, talking about trading data with you, he is good at
:10:17. > :10:21.picking the right data. He has had years of practice in drabness. One
:10:22. > :10:25.of the things over the course of the next few years is how opposition
:10:26. > :10:37.parties and the media keep an eye on exactly what they are doing. It is a
:10:38. > :10:42.tough one isn't it? It is not like, I will have a fight with whoever is
:10:43. > :10:48.running social services and finalise a budget. It is almost a residual
:10:49. > :10:50.attainment gap. It is a difficult thing to target and know that what
:10:51. > :10:57.you are doing is good to have the effect that you want. It is
:10:58. > :11:01.multifaceted. Coming in as Education Secretary, it is not just the
:11:02. > :11:05.attainment gap as an endgame, but you have got shortages of teachers,
:11:06. > :11:14.big class sizes, university budgets being reduced, named persons act,
:11:15. > :11:19.they just complaining about workload, there are a lot of big
:11:20. > :11:24.issues. The point about external markers, schools already struggle to
:11:25. > :11:36.get markers to mark exams. This year and they have a problem with physics
:11:37. > :11:41.markers. Let us look at a headline. I suspect you will not be getting
:11:42. > :11:46.markers. Let us look at a headline. too many Christmas cards from Stuart
:11:47. > :12:06.Hall see, but do you think all of this could stop him -- Christmas
:12:07. > :12:14.cards from Stuart Hosie. It seems there are sources breathing about
:12:15. > :12:21.the art angry at this. You see it as SNP sources. That is interesting. It
:12:22. > :12:26.is relatively rare to have people identifying as SNP sources
:12:27. > :12:32.criticising the SNP. Part of that is Stuart Hosie was part of the old
:12:33. > :12:36.guard. It would have been thought that he was a safe pair of hands
:12:37. > :12:41.guard. It would have been thought which is why he has been given this
:12:42. > :12:46.drive to raise support for independence. It will be difficult
:12:47. > :12:51.for him to take a high-profile media presence and not have this cast up
:12:52. > :12:55.to him. The other side of that as it is not clear what this campaign is
:12:56. > :12:59.supposed to amount to. When I asked Nicola Sturgeon she said, I am not
:13:00. > :13:03.telling you because I have not announced it yet. Is it a public
:13:04. > :13:10.campaign to convince people in favour of independence or is it more
:13:11. > :13:13.of a self examination by the SNP? We have not conducted any self
:13:14. > :13:17.examination of why they lost the last campaign. If it is a self
:13:18. > :13:21.examination does not mean that Stuart Hosie will still be in the
:13:22. > :13:27.running to coordinate that. He has had success with his involvement in
:13:28. > :13:32.the last two manifestos of the SNP but it is a dynamic at the top of
:13:33. > :13:45.the SNP, he is Nicola Sturgeon's deputy leader of the party,
:13:46. > :13:49.internally... Presumably David Cameron would say he wished he had
:13:50. > :13:53.that rather than Boris Johnson. We have to leave it there.
:13:54. > :13:56.I'll be back at the same time next week.