12/06/2016

:00:36. > :00:43.With just 11 days to go until the EU referendum,

:00:44. > :00:46.we get two campaigners to interrogate each other.

:00:47. > :00:50.Tory Chris Grayling for Leave and Labour's Mary Creagh for Remain.

:00:51. > :00:57.We'll hear from two Labour MPs who have recently

:00:58. > :01:00.declared their positions on In or Out.

:01:01. > :01:03.And is the EU putting controversial legislation on ice and pushing it

:01:04. > :01:08.off the agenda until after the referendum is out of the way?

:01:09. > :01:10.Everything difficult, everything contentious has

:01:11. > :01:14.been put in the fridge until the 24th of June.

:01:15. > :01:20.If we vote to stay in, it will all come tumbling out.

:01:21. > :01:22.Coming up in Sunday Politics Scotland:

:01:23. > :01:24.The Prime Minister warns spending on pensions will be reduced

:01:25. > :01:27.We'll be putting that to Vote Leave's

:01:28. > :01:41.So, all the highs and the lows, the ups and downs.

:01:42. > :01:44.The European Football Championships started this weekend and I'm

:01:45. > :01:48.joined by the France, Germany and Spain of political

:01:49. > :01:52.commentary, Janan Ganesh, Julia Hartley Brewer

:01:53. > :01:54.and Anushka Asthana, who'll be tweeting

:01:55. > :02:00.So a series of stark economic warnings from David Cameron who says

:02:01. > :02:04.he might not be able to protect spending on pensions,

:02:05. > :02:09.the NHS and defence if the UK votes to leave the EU.

:02:10. > :02:12.The Prime Minister said the strain on public finances caused by Brexit

:02:13. > :02:14.would even threaten the "triple lock" which guarantees

:02:15. > :02:22.Here is David Cameron talking to Andrew Marr earlier.

:02:23. > :02:25.The fact is, if we did face a 20-40 billion black hole

:02:26. > :02:27.in our public finances, we would have to make

:02:28. > :02:34.Our pensions promise is based on a growing and succeeding economy,

:02:35. > :02:36.and all of the experts, and I agree with them,

:02:37. > :02:39.most people in business agree, if we leave the single market,

:02:40. > :02:43.if we cut ourselves off from the most important market,

:02:44. > :02:48.our economy will be smaller and that has consequences.

:02:49. > :02:50.Cabinet minister, Leader of the House Chris Grayling

:02:51. > :03:06.If the Prime Minister is saying we voted to leave, he cannot, in fact,

:03:07. > :03:11.implement key parts of the 2015 manifesto, what legitimacy would

:03:12. > :03:15.your government have to continue? Well, I don't buy the argument. I

:03:16. > :03:19.have to completely disagree with him on this, it's only six months since

:03:20. > :03:23.he was telling us if we chose to leave the European Union we would do

:03:24. > :03:28.fine and well. This figure, 20 billion or 40 billion, it is based

:03:29. > :03:32.on analysis by the National Institute Of Economic And Social

:03:33. > :03:36.Research, it assumes the pound goes down, making exports cheaper, but

:03:37. > :03:39.people buy fewer, which makes no sense, and it assumes we lose the

:03:40. > :03:44.ability to sell within Europe, when the reality is that we buy far more

:03:45. > :03:47.from Europe than they do from us. It would cost French, German, Spanish

:03:48. > :03:51.and Italian jobs if they don't continue trading normally. He might

:03:52. > :03:56.be right or wrong, but is it not remarkable that he should say, if

:03:57. > :04:01.you vote to leave, all the things I promised I would do if you elected

:04:02. > :04:06.me, the key things, defence, the NHS, the triple lock on pensions,

:04:07. > :04:09.that is all of the agenda? I'm very surprised he has chosen to use those

:04:10. > :04:13.examples. I don't believe that is right, I don't believe we would back

:04:14. > :04:16.away from manifesto promises and I don't believe we would need to. I

:04:17. > :04:21.think the economic statistics behind the figures he has quoted do not

:04:22. > :04:24.hold up. They include some inherent contradictions and assumptions of

:04:25. > :04:29.doom and gloom. We buy more from the rest of Europe than they do from us,

:04:30. > :04:33.they are going to want to continue trading in the UK market. If we do

:04:34. > :04:37.leave, there was a downturn, because of uncertainty, it might not be long

:04:38. > :04:44.or deep, but if there was, it would hit public finances? It would mean

:04:45. > :04:49.tax rises, more public spending because of the extra welfare due to

:04:50. > :05:00.unemployment, or a, nation or both and more borrowing? Well, the

:05:01. > :05:05.question is if. If you look at what some of the international bodies

:05:06. > :05:08.have been saying, we heard from the IMF, that got the figures so wrong

:05:09. > :05:10.to matter years ago it had to apologise to the Chancellor. The

:05:11. > :05:15.chief economist at the World Bank says he thinks our trade situation

:05:16. > :05:20.would improve if we left the European Union. What you make of the

:05:21. > :05:25.Prime Minister's strategy? There is a certain level of sheer panic in

:05:26. > :05:30.his eyes, if you look very closely. Amid the tiredness, because we

:05:31. > :05:34.learned today he did 357 media appearances as part of this

:05:35. > :05:39.referendum campaign. I think what he is trying to do is to take on the

:05:40. > :05:43.argument that Chris and the Leave campaign are making around

:05:44. > :05:46.migration, saying, we know you are really worried about your borders

:05:47. > :05:50.and you want to close them, you want to do it because it is affecting

:05:51. > :05:52.your livelihood. The Prime Minister is saying, actually, there is

:05:53. > :05:55.something else here that might affect your livelihood and are

:05:56. > :06:00.really trying to get into the idea that it is going to affect people's

:06:01. > :06:05.lives. Even to the extent of saying all the things I promised you, key

:06:06. > :06:08.things on defence spending, extra money for the NHS, the triple lock

:06:09. > :06:13.on pensions, all of these things that probably got him elected, or

:06:14. > :06:17.were a key part, he is prepared to say I can't do any of that? He's

:06:18. > :06:21.just breaching even more of the trust of the British people. Another

:06:22. > :06:24.key pledge he made was that he was going to get immigration down to

:06:25. > :06:28.tens of thousands. He knows he has broken that because of the EU and

:06:29. > :06:31.other failings in immigration policy. The reality is that they are

:06:32. > :06:35.so desperate in Downing Street now because they thought they would be

:06:36. > :06:41.ten points ahead at this point. It is still very close, if you would

:06:42. > :06:47.still say that Remain would edge it on the day. He has even deployed his

:06:48. > :06:53.own wife, she was never that Keane at even turning up at party

:06:54. > :06:57.conferences and kissing on stage. He has got someone at Downing Street to

:06:58. > :07:02.write an article from some Cameron. That is how desperate they are,

:07:03. > :07:06.which is telling. When I spoke to the Chancellor on Wednesday night in

:07:07. > :07:11.the interview and I raised the issue of pensions, I said, why would the

:07:12. > :07:14.state pension be hit either way, in or out, because we have the triple

:07:15. > :07:20.lock. By definition, it cannot fall in real terms, in or out. He didn't

:07:21. > :07:25.really dispute that. He went along with that. Today, we have the Prime

:07:26. > :07:29.Minister, only a few days later, saying we might not even be able to

:07:30. > :07:34.afford the triple lock if you voted to leave. What is happening? What

:07:35. > :07:38.makes it doubly confusing is that it was Cameron, above anybody else,

:07:39. > :07:42.that was incredibly possessive over the pension commitment and the

:07:43. > :07:46.pension benefit commitment in the previous parliament. Even when he

:07:47. > :07:51.came under internal lobbying to soft in the policy, to create fiscal room

:07:52. > :07:53.to maybe soft and cuts elsewhere, he resisted it. So he deserves

:07:54. > :07:58.criticism now for seemingly weakening the position. In many

:07:59. > :08:02.ways, Cameron himself is the least important Remain politician for the

:08:03. > :08:10.next 11 days. They need Labour voters to vote by a margin of 2-1,

:08:11. > :08:14.if not 3-1, four Remain to win the referendum. You don't do that with a

:08:15. > :08:19.Prime Minister they do not like and voted against. For the remaining 11

:08:20. > :08:23.days, I think that Remain need to push Cameron less and Jeremy Corbyn

:08:24. > :08:28.more, if he is willing to do it. It's not that, Gordon Brown, who we

:08:29. > :08:32.saw do a video, Harriet Harman, a few other Labour figures. I think

:08:33. > :08:37.that is where it hinges, the Labour voters, especially in the north of

:08:38. > :08:42.England. If it is down to Labour to Pollitt off, some of the leave

:08:43. > :08:49.campaign should be opening the champagne early? -- pull it off. The

:08:50. > :08:52.vast majority of Labour MPs want people to vote to Remain. Some

:08:53. > :08:56.people were apparently in tears when they saw the latest poll. The Labour

:08:57. > :09:01.problem in heartlands goes deeper than this. I don't think it is

:09:02. > :09:04.whether or not David Cameron is campaigning or Jeremy Corbyn. In

:09:05. > :09:08.some of those seats, there are the biggest fears about immigration, and

:09:09. > :09:12.they wanted to see Labour talking their language. For all that said, I

:09:13. > :09:15.think Chris and his colleagues also have questions to answer. You can't

:09:16. > :09:22.just dismiss all of these reports like the IFS report, saying there

:09:23. > :09:28.might be a ?40 billion black hole. I think only 15 Labour MPs have come

:09:29. > :09:30.out for Leave, but 40% of Labour voters are Eurosceptic, and they

:09:31. > :09:37.will be switching straight to Ukip, the next set of elections. They are

:09:38. > :09:43.already the second party in the north of the country. If you are a

:09:44. > :09:49.sensible Labour MP, you should be keeping quiet about Remain. Is the

:09:50. > :09:53.biggest danger, in most referendums there are swings to the status quo

:09:54. > :09:58.in the final days, it has a built-in advantage. The Scottish referendum,

:09:59. > :10:01.the alternative micro referendum. Don't you risk that? We have to make

:10:02. > :10:04.sure that doesn't happen and campaign relentlessly over the last

:10:05. > :10:11.ten days. We have to keep getting messages across. We have new

:10:12. > :10:16.revelations about the discussions taking place between the European

:10:17. > :10:21.Union and Turkey. You will be dealing later in the programme with

:10:22. > :10:27.this wave of more Europe due to come. There are all kind's of

:10:28. > :10:34.different things that are going to hit the airwaves the moment we voted

:10:35. > :10:38.to remain, if we do. I hope people realise that more Europe is on the

:10:39. > :10:40.way and they have to votes to leave. You are not going away yet.

:10:41. > :10:43.Last week we had campaigners for In and Out interrogate each other.

:10:44. > :10:45.And we're going to repeat that today.

:10:46. > :10:48.The Conservative Leader of the House of Commons Chris Grayling,

:10:49. > :10:51.who wants to Leave and the Labour MP Mary Creagh, who's

:10:52. > :10:54.They will put each other on the spot.

:10:55. > :10:57.I'll mostly just be sitting back to watch.

:10:58. > :11:04.Maybe I'll have a cup of tea. A short while ago they tossed a coin

:11:05. > :11:09.to see who goes first. Mary was the winner, or loser, depending on your

:11:10. > :11:14.point of view. She has chosen to cross-examine Chris. So, before we

:11:15. > :11:15.start, let's see Chris's pitch to undecided voters as to why they

:11:16. > :11:31.should vote to leave. In ten days' time, we are going to

:11:32. > :11:35.be taking the biggest decision of this country has taken for a

:11:36. > :11:39.generation. Should we remain or leave? What would be our future

:11:40. > :11:42.relationship with Europe, given the fact we are already the biggest

:11:43. > :11:47.customer for European products like these ones? When you take your

:11:48. > :11:51.decision, I want you to ask yourself one simple question. Do I want to

:11:52. > :11:55.live in a country that is free to take its own decisions in the

:11:56. > :11:58.interests of its people? Or am I happy to be in a country that has

:11:59. > :12:07.given up control over key decisions that affect all of our futures? We

:12:08. > :12:09.have already given up control over a whole variety of areas of crucial

:12:10. > :12:11.importance to us. We are not allowed to forge our own free-trade

:12:12. > :12:14.agreements with Commonwealth partners, we are not allowed to set

:12:15. > :12:17.limits on the number of people that come and work here and is

:12:18. > :12:22.immigration pressures. All of that has happened already. There is more

:12:23. > :12:26.to come. At the same time, we are spending a fortune on being part of

:12:27. > :12:31.the EU. Our contribution is ?350 million overall every week. We only

:12:32. > :12:34.see half of that money back, money that could be spent on our

:12:35. > :12:38.priorities like the National Health Service and cutting fuel bills. If

:12:39. > :12:44.you have any worries that if you vote to leave on the 23rd of June,

:12:45. > :12:48.the Germans are still going to sell these cars, the French will still

:12:49. > :12:52.sell us our wines and cheeses. What we will have done is taken back

:12:53. > :12:56.control of our country. We will be in charge of the key decisions that

:12:57. > :12:59.matter to all our futures. We will be a properly independent country

:13:00. > :13:08.again and that is what I want for all our children and grandchildren.

:13:09. > :13:11.Here are risk Grayling and Mary Cray. Mary has seven minutes to

:13:12. > :13:22.interrogate Chris. Vote Leave have claimed that EU

:13:23. > :13:25.regulations cost businesses ?600 million a week. It doesn't take into

:13:26. > :13:30.account the benefits of the regulations, does it? The key issue

:13:31. > :13:34.for most businesses in this country, you have to remember that most

:13:35. > :13:37.businesses do no trade at all within the European Union, most operate

:13:38. > :13:42.just in the United Kingdom. They are all subject to the regulations that

:13:43. > :13:45.international businesses have to deal with. Typically, they are small

:13:46. > :13:50.businesses, they don't have the staff, the compliance to do it. It

:13:51. > :13:53.places a huge extra cost on small business. I've talked to small

:13:54. > :13:57.businesses up and down the country. Again and again, they tell me they

:13:58. > :14:02.have to do box ticking and form filling. It is nothing to do with

:14:03. > :14:05.the environment they are operating in, it takes a huge amount of time

:14:06. > :14:09.and money that could be spent on hiring more people. The same report

:14:10. > :14:14.shows that these measures have a net benefit to the UK, so we will not

:14:15. > :14:18.save ?600 million a week if we leave? There is not a cash saving of

:14:19. > :14:22.?600 million a week. What you do is free of business to do new things,

:14:23. > :14:27.to take advantage of new opportunities. On day one, you don't

:14:28. > :14:33.just save ?600 million on the spot. As we gain the freedom to reduce the

:14:34. > :14:36.regulation on small business, not to reduce worker rights, not to make

:14:37. > :14:39.workplaces more dangerous, but to end some of the box ticking and form

:14:40. > :14:43.filling that comes from Brussels, those businesses have more time to

:14:44. > :14:47.sell... The figure includes the cost of rights at work, the rights of

:14:48. > :14:53.four weeks paid holiday, paid maternity leave and equal pay for

:14:54. > :14:57.fixed term and agency workers. Which would you scrap? We've always been

:14:58. > :15:01.better than the rest of the European Union on workers' rights. One of the

:15:02. > :15:05.things I would not do, after the gulf of Mexico oil disaster, even

:15:06. > :15:09.though we have the best safety standards in the North Sea, they

:15:10. > :15:13.decided to rewrite them. No benefit to safety or businesses, at a time

:15:14. > :15:17.when jobs are being lost in the North Sea, companies have had to

:15:18. > :15:26.deal with extra costs, to no benefit at all except to keep bureaucrats

:15:27. > :15:31.happy. You've been clear we would not save ?600 million from leaving

:15:32. > :15:34.the EU. Hundreds of thousands of women lost tens of thousands of

:15:35. > :15:39.pounds when you changed the state qualifying age for the pension. Why

:15:40. > :15:43.should they rely on you to protect their rights? You changed the

:15:44. > :15:47.goalposts. It was the Labour Party that started changing the retirement

:15:48. > :15:51.age, we've both chosen to do that because the life expectancy of

:15:52. > :15:56.people in this country is rising. Inevitably, as retirement years

:15:57. > :15:59.become longer, it becomes more of a challenge, and both we and the

:16:00. > :16:05.Labour Party have said because of that we need to raise the state

:16:06. > :16:08.retirement age. You would surely agree as a champion of equality it

:16:09. > :16:11.is sensible for men and women to retire at the same age. I want to

:16:12. > :16:16.move on to what you said about the Commonwealth. We do more trade with

:16:17. > :16:21.Ireland than 53, Love countries put together. Europe puzzles would mean

:16:22. > :16:24.we'd need to have a land border between Ireland and Northern

:16:25. > :16:29.Ireland. I will that help? I don't buy that. We had the Common travel

:16:30. > :16:33.area since 1923, before the European Union was streamed off. There's no

:16:34. > :16:43.reason for that to change. -- dreams. The issue is about living

:16:44. > :16:46.and working in the UK, getting a national insurance number,

:16:47. > :16:50.registering for state support. That creates a back door for EU migrants

:16:51. > :16:58.to coming to Northern Ireland and Ahern has decided Theresa Villiers,

:16:59. > :17:03.because he says we are talking about EU citizens and non-EU nations

:17:04. > :17:07.seeking a way into Britain. He says smuggling would undergo a revival,

:17:08. > :17:12.endless profit-making opportunities for criminals. You're talking about

:17:13. > :17:18.illegal immigration, I'm talking about a situation where we have

:17:19. > :17:23.77,000 people a year arriving just looking for a job. I'm talking about

:17:24. > :17:28.Northern Ireland. We've got 200 roads between the countries. Are you

:17:29. > :17:33.going to have an army of bureaucrats checking passports? We never have

:17:34. > :17:36.and we will not. If you are a European citizen crossing the border

:17:37. > :17:39.and seeking to get a job, if you don't have the right to work year,

:17:40. > :17:47.there will be set rules in place so you demonstrate you have a job

:17:48. > :17:52.before you come to the UK. You will not be able to work legally. What is

:17:53. > :17:56.your alternative economic plan? Do you want the UK to be like

:17:57. > :18:04.Switzerland? I want the UK to be like the UK. The reason we will do

:18:05. > :18:07.trade deals with the EU, Carry On trading freely, is because we buy

:18:08. > :18:16.more from them than they buy from us. I buy more from Lidl than they

:18:17. > :18:22.buy from me but I would say the economic power in that relationship

:18:23. > :18:28.is on Lidl. They sent 8% of exports to us. Where is the power in that

:18:29. > :18:33.relationship? I think the power is with you, the consumer, because you

:18:34. > :18:38.can go to another supermarket. In what world would the French say to

:18:39. > :18:42.their farmers, we are going to endanger your livelihood by taking

:18:43. > :18:47.away your ability to sell your products to the UK? We represent 17%

:18:48. > :18:54.of exports. Why would they put that in danger? Millions of EU jobs

:18:55. > :19:00.depend on British consumers. One of your economists have said about to

:19:01. > :19:04.leave would mostly eliminate Britain's manufacturing centre and

:19:05. > :19:09.Michael Gove cannot guarantee people would not lose their jobs. Are you

:19:10. > :19:13.happy with 18% of the British economy is stopping happening? He is

:19:14. > :19:21.one of your economists. I don't accept that. So your saying he is

:19:22. > :19:26.wrong? On this, I think he is. Is Michael Gove wrong when he says he

:19:27. > :19:30.cannot guarantee jobs? Look at Patrick Bamford. Your colleague,

:19:31. > :19:38.Michael Gove, said he cannot guarantee jobs. He said he could not

:19:39. > :19:46.Darren T the jobs of the British members of the European Parliament

:19:47. > :19:51.-- could not guarantee. On manufacturing, look at James Dyson,

:19:52. > :19:55.these are people who are captains of industry, saying we should leave.

:19:56. > :20:03.Have you ever join the gym? I never have. I see from your register of

:20:04. > :20:09.interests you are an honorary member of the RSC club. If a member

:20:10. > :20:12.cancelled their membership on Monday and turned up expecting to use the

:20:13. > :20:24.swimming pool, what with the other members say? What would they say? We

:20:25. > :20:30.will need to leave it there. It is now the turn of Mary to be cross

:20:31. > :20:38.examined. Let's look at her pitch as to why voters should vote to remain?

:20:39. > :20:42.In 1940, Churchill urged towns and cities to fund raise for the war

:20:43. > :20:47.effort. These towns outside Wakefield he did that call and

:20:48. > :20:55.raised enough money to buy a Spitfire. This Polish pilot flew

:20:56. > :21:04.that plane in the Royal air force. He shot down four German planes

:21:05. > :21:12.before losing his life over France. His bravery and that of thousands of

:21:13. > :21:19.other service men is commemorated at this memorial. In 1000 years of

:21:20. > :21:25.European history we've had 70 years of peace, largely because of the

:21:26. > :21:30.European Union. Billions of pounds of British exports and millions of

:21:31. > :21:36.jobs and on our membership of the EU. The pressure on the NHS, schools

:21:37. > :21:39.and housing is not caused by European immigration but I had right

:21:40. > :21:47.Tory Government failing to and staff the NHS, cutting budgets for schools

:21:48. > :21:53.and overseeing the lowest house building since the 1920s. When you

:21:54. > :21:57.thought on June 23, remember this pilot, Polish immigrant, shot down

:21:58. > :22:04.over France, for the freedoms we enjoy today. Remember as well that

:22:05. > :22:10.the people that want us to leave are not friends and allies in the USA,

:22:11. > :22:18.but right wing politicians, Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, Vladimir

:22:19. > :22:23.Putin. Ask yourself, is that a risk you are willing to take with your

:22:24. > :22:32.children's futures in this battle for Britain? As before, you've got

:22:33. > :22:37.seven minutes to question merely. The trade figures show we have the

:22:38. > :22:41.biggest ever trade deficit in the EU. Why do you think are trading

:22:42. > :22:47.position has become so much worse in the single market? I think it is

:22:48. > :22:51.important we stay in the EU, it gives us the largest domestic market

:22:52. > :22:58.in the world, a market of 500 million people, and as I said to

:22:59. > :23:02.you, it is important that we stay because 80% of the economy depends

:23:03. > :23:08.on services freely traded and 20% of the economy is manufacturing. Those

:23:09. > :23:15.sectors will be put at risk if we leave. You did not answer my

:23:16. > :23:20.question. Why do you think the trading position has got worse over

:23:21. > :23:25.the years? I think our economy is changing, we've had a big recession,

:23:26. > :23:31.and we've had six years of Conservative government. I think

:23:32. > :23:37.Britain is better off, safer and more secure as part of the European

:23:38. > :23:41.Union. The issue around trading figures, do we create more jobs and

:23:42. > :23:49.growth by remaining or should we take this leap in the dark with

:23:50. > :23:55.security and prosperity? The trade position was getting worse even in

:23:56. > :24:04.the Labour years. Why is that? The trade position is that we do more

:24:05. > :24:08.trade with Ireland than with 53 members of the Commonwealth. That is

:24:09. > :24:13.something your campaign wants to put at risk and I don't think that is a

:24:14. > :24:21.risk we can take. It is important we stay in, we work on closing that

:24:22. > :24:27.deficit, but we must not wreck the economy and have a new recession by

:24:28. > :24:32.voting to leave. That is what every single economic forecaster has said

:24:33. > :24:35.will happen. We will check recession, the economy will shrink,

:24:36. > :24:39.and the trade deficit will get worse. We would be outside the club

:24:40. > :24:48.and they would tell us what rules we would abide by. Why did they help

:24:49. > :24:54.make the position worse by moving the production of Ford transit vans

:24:55. > :25:01.from Southampton to Turkey. I don't know about that, but what is

:25:02. > :25:05.clear... They gave grants to Turkey to move production from Southampton

:25:06. > :25:14.to Turkey. It helped contribute to making it worse. I don't accept they

:25:15. > :25:21.did that, I don't know about the details, but in a globalised world,

:25:22. > :25:27.big companies are looking at this referendum, making decisions, we got

:25:28. > :25:32.investment in the north-west, they think, if we are no longer the

:25:33. > :25:39.Gateway to the European market we will not receive foreign direct

:25:40. > :25:47.investment into the economy, harming jobs, growth, and the economy of the

:25:48. > :25:54.UK. In that market, why do you think unemployment fell and is 50% in

:25:55. > :25:58.Spain? Unemployment in those countries is unacceptably high and

:25:59. > :26:03.in some cases that is because of structural factors at work. When I

:26:04. > :26:08.was working in Brussels, the unemployment rate was always double

:26:09. > :26:11.and there has been structurally higher levels of unemployment. There

:26:12. > :26:20.is also the austerity policies that have been pursued by the European

:26:21. > :26:27.Union. There have been imbalances in those markets, Spain had a market

:26:28. > :26:32.based on selling houses, Greece had an economy where nobody collected

:26:33. > :26:37.taxes properly. These have been shown up by the recession, leading

:26:38. > :26:41.to consequences. Are you in favour of the UK having the ability to set

:26:42. > :26:45.limits on the number of EU citizens who come and work here? What I want

:26:46. > :26:51.us to do is have access to the single market. We are outside of the

:26:52. > :26:55.passport free Schengen zone, we are not part of the asylum policy. We

:26:56. > :27:00.choose the number of asylum seekers that come to this country. Your

:27:01. > :27:05.government has control over who comes here from outside the EU.

:27:06. > :27:10.There is more migration from outside the EU than from within the U. The

:27:11. > :27:15.question is, that free movement of people is one of the factors that

:27:16. > :27:20.gives us access. People have concerns. Do we throw the baby out

:27:21. > :27:25.with the bath water and wreck the economy with a vote to leave? You

:27:26. > :27:33.did not answer my question. Are you in favour of having any ability to

:27:34. > :27:38.set limits on the number of people from the EU who live and work here?

:27:39. > :27:43.Your Prime Minister has negotiated an opt out so that people who come

:27:44. > :27:47.here have to contribute to the economy for four years before they

:27:48. > :27:55.can access housing, social benefits, except try. -- etc. I think that is

:27:56. > :28:00.welcome and it is important that your government starts making

:28:01. > :28:04.investment in the NHS, housing, and in schools, the investment we need

:28:05. > :28:07.for those coming here. There are more people coming here from outside

:28:08. > :28:14.than from inside. You have control of that. Why are you not stopping

:28:15. > :28:18.it? Do you think people should be able to come from elsewhere in the

:28:19. > :28:23.EU to look for a job? There are 77,000 people who turn up at

:28:24. > :28:29.Victoria Coach Station or to near Port. Do you think that is OK? I

:28:30. > :28:36.think we have over a million people living in Spain have chosen to

:28:37. > :28:40.retire there, live and work there. We have 2 million British citizens

:28:41. > :28:43.who have chosen to live, work and invest in other European Union

:28:44. > :28:49.countries. When people come here to look for work, they look for work

:28:50. > :28:54.and generally find it, and we know that they generally put more into

:28:55. > :28:57.the economy than they take out. You are happy for people to come in

:28:58. > :29:04.unlimited numbers to look for work here. I've said there are more

:29:05. > :29:10.people coming from outside the EU, given visas from your government,

:29:11. > :29:14.and people make a contribution. What we don't want to do is throw the

:29:15. > :29:20.baby out with the bath water, wrecked the economy. That would mean

:29:21. > :29:25.less money for public sector services, and a weaker economy.

:29:26. > :29:30.You're happy that there should be no limits. More people come from

:29:31. > :29:31.outside the EU than come from inside.

:29:32. > :29:38.One of the main arguments of the Leave campaign is that the EU

:29:39. > :29:42.But are there signs that several EU initiatives have been put on ice

:29:43. > :29:45.or pushed off the agenda in an effort to avoid

:29:46. > :29:46.stirring up controversy until after the referendum?

:29:47. > :29:49.Critics have suggested that the Budget and proposals paving

:29:50. > :29:53.the way for a so-called EU army are being kept secret.

:29:54. > :29:55.Others suggest some awkward legislation like new eco-friendly

:29:56. > :29:57.regulations banning some kitchen appliances like toasters could be

:29:58. > :30:21.The familiar sights, things people expect to see in this

:30:22. > :30:32.great European city, the administrative home of the EU.

:30:33. > :30:34.But, underneath it all, there's something else.

:30:35. > :30:37.A place only a few people know about.

:30:38. > :30:44.The Musee des Egouts - The Sewer Museum.

:30:45. > :30:50.Do you get to see them on a daily basis?

:30:51. > :30:59.So, there are still some surprises lurking here in Brussels.

:31:00. > :31:02.The EU's critics say it is doing the same thing, that there

:31:03. > :31:06.is some nasty business still in the pipeline.

:31:07. > :31:10.They are keeping everything back until after the 24th,

:31:11. > :31:20.and then there's going to be a deluge, a tsunami.

:31:21. > :31:22.There's going to be all sorts of problems that

:31:23. > :31:25.on others, regulations they've held back, especially on things

:31:26. > :31:29.This is things like the Port Services Directive, which is ruinous

:31:30. > :31:33.Things like the licensing for art imports, which is a disaster

:31:34. > :31:35.The banning of high-power electrical appliances.

:31:36. > :31:38.And then, a little bit further down the line,

:31:39. > :31:39.more bailouts, higher budget contributions and, ultimately,

:31:40. > :31:41.the harmonisation of military capacity, what the European

:31:42. > :31:43.Commission describes as the strategic necessity

:31:44. > :31:55.Is the commission holding back on certain legislation that would be

:31:56. > :32:01.The commission is not saving up proposals.

:32:02. > :32:04.We are continuing to work on the basis of our

:32:05. > :32:11.Now, as to the question about the EU army, yes,

:32:12. > :32:13.I can also say very clearly that we have no plans

:32:14. > :32:20.But there are those in the European Parliament who think

:32:21. > :32:24.Britain's referendum is playing a role in delaying EU business.

:32:25. > :32:26.That's exactly what happened to the EU budget, according

:32:27. > :32:28.to the vice chair of the European Parliament's

:32:29. > :32:32.We would normally have the budget by now.

:32:33. > :32:36.It is being delayed, yes.

:32:37. > :32:44.I think everyone knows that Brexit and the vote, the referendum,

:32:45. > :32:50.There is certainly the migration reason for delaying it.

:32:51. > :32:53.But then, on the other hand, in politics commuting to say

:32:54. > :33:03.that this is the reason, then there are other things.

:33:04. > :33:07.The Green MEP that works on regulation to make kitchen

:33:08. > :33:09.appliances more eco-friendly says toasters were never

:33:10. > :33:15.Is there a sense here that there is much business in the EU

:33:16. > :33:18.being held up before the British referendum?

:33:19. > :33:22.Of course, the EU commission is very cautious, some legislative proposals

:33:23. > :33:31.We do that because we do not want to create negative stories,

:33:32. > :33:35.which often are completely out of the blue and without any proof,

:33:36. > :33:39.because that is the reality of the British media.

:33:40. > :33:44.The Toaster Unit is somewhere, hidden in a secret, locked corridor.

:33:45. > :33:47.The Toaster Unit is what some journalists have called a special

:33:48. > :33:50.task force set up within the EU commission to deal with issues

:33:51. > :33:56.So called because of those stories in the British press that the EU had

:33:57. > :33:59.decided to shelve plans to change our toasters.

:34:00. > :34:01.It's led by the father of British Eurocrats,

:34:02. > :34:10.He has been here since the 70s, plays cricket, drinks tea,

:34:11. > :34:13.kind of understands some of what may explode in the UK.

:34:14. > :34:16.But we do know there is a British task force that has been dubbed

:34:17. > :34:22.Is that not evidence that you are at least prepared to hold

:34:23. > :34:26.I appreciate the effort to introduce into the commission pressroom

:34:27. > :34:30.tabloid terminology, there are issues to be addressed,

:34:31. > :34:34.Parliamentary questions to be answered.

:34:35. > :34:37.There is a whole internal work of coordination

:34:38. > :34:40.between the services, advice to the commission.

:34:41. > :34:43.So there is nothing special, extraordinary or toaster

:34:44. > :34:50.related aspects in the work of our colleagues.

:34:51. > :34:53.With less than two weeks to go until the referendum,

:34:54. > :34:55.it's maybe not surprising those in Brussels are keen

:34:56. > :34:58.the British public see the EU's best side.

:34:59. > :35:01.But, for others, it belies a "selfie-interest" -

:35:02. > :35:13.exactly what those wanting to leave say is wrong with the EU.

:35:14. > :35:19.We are joined from Shipley by the Labour MEP Richard Corbett.

:35:20. > :35:22.He is a former advisor to the President of the European

:35:23. > :35:24.Council so knows the workings of the EU very well.

:35:25. > :35:31.To your knowledge, is The Financial Times right to report that the EU

:35:32. > :35:36.Commission has delayed a second eco-friendly assault on household

:35:37. > :35:42.goods such as hairdryers and hostess trolleys until after the referendum?

:35:43. > :35:47.You know, in general, it is one of those scare stories, isn't it? They

:35:48. > :35:50.are about to spring proposals on us and they are holding them back. The

:35:51. > :35:55.nastier and worse they are, the better it is for the story. When you

:35:56. > :36:01.look into it, it is something as banal as the design of household

:36:02. > :36:05.appliances, to save people money and make them more efficient, not

:36:06. > :36:10.limiting their power but making them more efficient. Why were The

:36:11. > :36:16.Financial Times, probably the most pro-EU paper in the United Kingdom

:36:17. > :36:21.run a scare story? The Financial Times is also keen to ensure

:36:22. > :36:29.balance, it gives a say to each side. This is a news story, not an

:36:30. > :36:32.opinion piece? The question is, surely, so what? The European

:36:33. > :36:37.Commission only proposes, it is not the side. The proposals have to come

:36:38. > :36:40.to the Council of ministers, with a British minister around the table,

:36:41. > :36:44.answer to the European Parliament, for a decision. We are part of the

:36:45. > :36:49.decision taking process. It is not them telling us what to do, it is

:36:50. > :36:53.sitting around the table with our neighbouring countries to work out

:36:54. > :36:55.common rules for the common market to protect consumers, protect the

:36:56. > :37:01.environment or whatever the subject might be. What is wrong with that?

:37:02. > :37:05.What about the report in the Sunday Times this morning from diplomatic

:37:06. > :37:12.cable traffic that it looks like the deal between the EU and Turkey on

:37:13. > :37:14.controlling migration isn't going so well, and they are worried that

:37:15. > :37:18.Turkey might just open the floodgates again, but they are

:37:19. > :37:25.keeping it under wraps until after the vote on June the 23rd? Is that

:37:26. > :37:27.another scare story? I think the ongoing negotiations with Turkey

:37:28. > :37:32.have had their ups and downs for several months now. That is a very

:37:33. > :37:35.difficult situation. It would be no easier if we were outside the

:37:36. > :37:40.European Union or in. The flood of refugees coming out of Syria, going

:37:41. > :37:46.through Turkey and other countries, some in, some outside the EU like

:37:47. > :37:49.Macedonia and Serbia, that needs a cooperative effort at European level

:37:50. > :37:53.to try to reach agreement to handle that better. It is far better that

:37:54. > :37:57.we are in those negotiations than peripheral to them. It is in our

:37:58. > :38:07.interest to our say. What about moves to an EU army? It's the,

:38:08. > :38:10.quote, the framing of a progressive defence policy that might lead to a

:38:11. > :38:18.common defence. Why would there not be moves to having a EU army? The

:38:19. > :38:20.operational word is might. If you look at the procedure, it needs the

:38:21. > :38:29.unanimous consent of every single member state. By the way, in law, in

:38:30. > :38:31.Britain now, such a transfer of responsibilities to the European

:38:32. > :38:35.Union would require another referendum. Nothing like that can

:38:36. > :38:41.possibly happen without the British people agreeing with it. What I'm

:38:42. > :38:45.trying to find out, is the idea... The idea has been around since the

:38:46. > :38:49.early 1950s, the French national parliament rejected it in 1954.

:38:50. > :38:52.Various people come out and say, wouldn't it be a good idea? And it

:38:53. > :38:57.has never happened. It may never happen, but it doesn't mean it

:38:58. > :39:01.won't. Many things have happened that you would think would never

:39:02. > :39:06.have happened 40 years ago. Jean-Claude Juncker wants a EU army,

:39:07. > :39:11.that is one powerful voice in favour? So do various people, but

:39:12. > :39:15.the commission can't decide it, it can only make suggestions. It is the

:39:16. > :39:19.member states. Every single member state has to agree, so it's not

:39:20. > :39:22.going to happen. Well, we don't know, do we? There are many things

:39:23. > :39:26.we were told would not happen, but they do. I'm trying to work out why

:39:27. > :39:33.people are not talking about these things at the moment. Not without

:39:34. > :39:37.our agreement, Andrew. The German defence minister says that the

:39:38. > :39:41.future belongs to a European army, it would strengthen Europe's

:39:42. > :39:45.security. We are told a German white Paper on this has been postponed

:39:46. > :39:51.until after the referendum. There is a second powerful voice in favour of

:39:52. > :39:56.it? Maybe it would, maybe it would not be a strengthening of European

:39:57. > :39:59.defence. The point is, for that to happen you would need a British

:40:00. > :40:03.government to agree it and it is enshrined in our national law that

:40:04. > :40:17.the decision, itself, would need a new referendum. Of course lots of

:40:18. > :40:22.people think X, Y, Z would happen, but they could not happen without

:40:23. > :40:27.our agreement. Officials in Brussels are talking about or preparing

:40:28. > :40:31.papers on a new treaty, higher budget, a EU intelligence service, a

:40:32. > :40:39.European army, more economic integration, new powers over health

:40:40. > :40:45.policy, scrapping zero rate VAT, mandatory sharing of gas, even a

:40:46. > :40:48.common position on the IMF. We know that in the years ahead, some of

:40:49. > :40:53.that, by no means all, some of that will happen, won't it? It is the job

:40:54. > :40:56.of the European Commission to think of ideas, where it thinks it might

:40:57. > :41:00.be a good idea for the whole of Europe to work together on those

:41:01. > :41:03.subjects. But the commission does not decide. It puts that to the

:41:04. > :41:06.subjects. But the commission does member states, the Council of

:41:07. > :41:09.ministers, a minister from every country around the table. Some of

:41:10. > :41:13.the things you have mentioned would even need a treaty change. All of

:41:14. > :41:17.that needs the agreement of the member states. The commission will

:41:18. > :41:22.come up with all kind of ideas, weird and wonderful, or sensible.

:41:23. > :41:26.That is its job. It is up to our ministers to accept or reject them.

:41:27. > :41:31.In many cases, it needs the approval of parliament, or even a referendum,

:41:32. > :41:36.according to British law. We are told this by people like you time

:41:37. > :41:39.and time again, it's not going to happen, if it does it will need our

:41:40. > :41:45.approval and the rest of it. We were told by a Labour minister... It

:41:46. > :41:49.might happen, if we were to agree to it. We were told by a Labour

:41:50. > :41:58.minister that the Charter of fundamental rights would have no

:41:59. > :42:03.more legal status than the Beano. Now it turns out it is written into

:42:04. > :42:08.the European Court of Justice and applies to Britain. It turned out to

:42:09. > :42:13.be a bit more important than the Beano, didn't it? If you look into

:42:14. > :42:16.that, actually, what the charter does is restrict what the European

:42:17. > :42:21.Union institutions can do. It more or less binds them to follow the

:42:22. > :42:27.same rules that we apply in Britain about human rights, which we

:42:28. > :42:34.negotiated in the separate deal on the European Convention of human

:42:35. > :42:42.rights. It applies to Britain? The fact is, it applies to Britain and

:42:43. > :42:48.we were told it didn't? What applies to Britain is very different, it's

:42:49. > :42:52.nothing to do with the EU, the European Convention On Human Rights.

:42:53. > :42:56.Churchill was a great champion not of that. I'm not talking about that,

:42:57. > :43:02.I'm talking about the Charter of fundamental rights and it is written

:43:03. > :43:09.into the European Court of justice? We were told it wouldn't be? Yes.

:43:10. > :43:14.What it says very clearly, that was clear when Britain ratified it, is

:43:15. > :43:17.that it binds the European institutions and the field of

:43:18. > :43:20.European Union law, even when we are applying it, to recognise and

:43:21. > :43:25.respect those fundamental rights that we would expect everybody to

:43:26. > :43:28.follow, and now that is also binding on the European institutions. It

:43:29. > :43:32.restricts them in what they can propose and what they can do to make

:43:33. > :43:34.sure they respect the same rights that we would want them to respect.

:43:35. > :43:36.Thank you for joining us today. At this late stage in the EU

:43:37. > :43:38.referendum campaign, the majority of MPs have

:43:39. > :43:40.announced their voting intentions. But there are a few who are still

:43:41. > :43:44.making up their minds and some This week, John Mann

:43:45. > :43:47.and Dennis Skinner put the number of Labour MPs declaring they'd vote

:43:48. > :43:50.to leave the EU into double figures And Labour MP Khalid Mahmood

:43:51. > :43:54.announced he's joining the campaign to keep Britain

:43:55. > :43:57.in the European Union - after previously backing

:43:58. > :43:59.the campaign to leave. Khalid joins us from the Birmingham

:44:00. > :44:10.studio and John Mann John Conner let me come to you

:44:11. > :44:15.first. You said you are going to vote to leave. You told us that on

:44:16. > :44:17.Friday. Why did you leave it so late to declare? I had to weigh up all of

:44:18. > :44:20.Friday. Why did you leave it so late the issues, these are not

:44:21. > :44:25.straightforward decisions. The big question for me is, the EU is

:44:26. > :44:30.broken, fundamentally broken. Can it be reformed from the inside or not?

:44:31. > :44:37.My conclusion is that it can't be. One of the reasons is that David

:44:38. > :44:39.Cameron's negotiations, even on the absurdity of child benefits being

:44:40. > :44:44.paid to children that have never been in this country, he could not

:44:45. > :44:49.get agreement on that. It is because the structures of the European Union

:44:50. > :44:55.do not allow that kind of common-sense change to take place.

:44:56. > :45:01.It is there, in the rules, and it can't be changed. Khalid Mahmood,

:45:02. > :45:04.you previously backed the campaign to leave, you now think we should

:45:05. > :45:08.remain. You say you are worried about the threat to workers' rights

:45:09. > :45:16.if we leave the EU. How have you only realise that now?

:45:17. > :45:26.I wanted to look at the wider agenda and work to resolve that. A lot of

:45:27. > :45:34.the debate has focused on issues that have frightened people,

:45:35. > :45:37.particularly on the Leave side, and people trying to contextualise it

:45:38. > :45:43.about immigration. The whole thing is about how we deal to it -- with

:45:44. > :45:44.it. If you don't doctor Europe, it makes immigration far worse. We need

:45:45. > :45:52.to look at how you to restrict borders,

:45:53. > :45:58.stop people coming in. We've done that with an agreement with France

:45:59. > :46:03.to put up fences to stop people coming onto the trains through the

:46:04. > :46:17.tunnel. We've worked together to do that. What do you say to that? The

:46:18. > :46:24.European Union has failed. Angela Merkel unilaterally decided on

:46:25. > :46:30.behalf of Germany to have 1 million Syrians come to Germany. What was

:46:31. > :46:36.less noticed was she a load huge numbers of Kosovans to come to

:46:37. > :46:42.Germany. -- she allowed. The German economists said they needed 3

:46:43. > :46:48.million workers. That has a huge impact on the rest of the European

:46:49. > :46:52.Union. This concept of the European citizen rather than the British

:46:53. > :46:58.citizen, the German citizen, is the fundamental fault line in the

:46:59. > :47:02.European Union, that it cannot fix. If that was fixed it would be a

:47:03. > :47:07.different proposition but it cannot be. That is why the issue of

:47:08. > :47:14.immigration is so toxic. We don't know what will happen in ten, 20, 30

:47:15. > :47:18.years. We have no control over it. The only way we will know is if we

:47:19. > :47:25.engage with it and make the decisions from inside. We are the

:47:26. > :47:30.final destination. If we don't cooperate with Europe and France,

:47:31. > :47:41.and the Borders are open, and the French have no incentive not to let

:47:42. > :47:50.people come through, we have to work together to resolve these issues.

:47:51. > :47:54.We've only got a couple of minutes. We are being told by a number of

:47:55. > :48:01.Labour politicians on both sides of the argument that it is proving a

:48:02. > :48:11.struggle to get the Labour vote out for remain. Have you found that? The

:48:12. > :48:18.reason I joined is we want to get the vote out more effectively. If it

:48:19. > :48:24.is struggle? We are working hard to make sure we get people out. Yes,

:48:25. > :48:28.that is why I wanted to join, push people forward. You think it's a

:48:29. > :48:33.struggle. Most people are making up people forward. You think it's a

:48:34. > :48:41.their own minds. The Westminster bubble debate and the Leave campaign

:48:42. > :48:46.against the Remain campaign is not the same as the debate going on in

:48:47. > :48:52.workplaces and households. There is an entirely different debate going

:48:53. > :48:58.on. It is quite clear the Labour Party is not entirely in touch with

:48:59. > :49:00.Labour voters on this issue. I thank you both for joining us.

:49:01. > :49:03.It's coming up to 11.50, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:49:04. > :49:11.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:49:12. > :49:13.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:49:14. > :49:18.Party leaders here all favour remaining in the EU,

:49:19. > :49:22.but does that mean there's unanimity in their ranks?

:49:23. > :49:24.We'll be asking who are the Brexiteers in Scotland

:49:25. > :49:30.The former Labour cabinet minister Tom Harris now leads the Vote Leave

:49:31. > :49:35.We'll be speaking to him live this morning.

:49:36. > :49:38.The EIS is the biggest teaching union in the country -

:49:39. > :49:42.yesterday, members heard from the new Education Secretary.

:49:43. > :49:55.you David Cameron is claiming that the government would be forced to

:49:56. > :49:59.scrap the government would be forced to scrap a triple lock and pensions

:50:00. > :50:02.if voters back Brexit. The Prime Minister argues that the vote to

:50:03. > :50:06.leave would leave a blank when the government has macro finances that

:50:07. > :50:12.would force tough choices, to use his words. Meanwhile, senior Labour

:50:13. > :50:16.figures say this week that they do not know Labour backs remaining in

:50:17. > :50:19.the EU. Former party leader Ed Miliband suggested the referendum

:50:20. > :50:24.result was in question, and urged Labour supporters not to use it as a

:50:25. > :50:26.protest vote against the Tories. Labour voters, he stressed, would be

:50:27. > :50:30.hardest hit by Brexit. His comments come as a recent poll suggests that

:50:31. > :50:34.a ten point lead for those wanting to leave Europe. A short while ago,

:50:35. > :50:42.spoke to Professor John Curtice. This poll the other day showing a

:50:43. > :50:45.10% lead for Leave, that everyone is getting very exercised about. As a

:50:46. > :50:51.credible? Well, it is not the first poultice

:50:52. > :50:56.adjust that Leave have been doing relatively well. -- not the first

:50:57. > :50:59.poll to suggest. We saw polls from ICM and YouGov the suggested that

:51:00. > :51:05.Leave's lead was higher than that poll had recorded, either in the

:51:06. > :51:10.recent past, or in one case, at all. That said, plenty of other polls

:51:11. > :51:16.basically say, and given that the Aral internet polls, it is around

:51:17. > :51:19.50-50. We have two out this morning. One puts Remain ahead by two points,

:51:20. > :51:22.50-50. We have two out this morning. one puts Leave ahead by two points,

:51:23. > :51:26.so therefore, we are probably still in a position where the internet

:51:27. > :51:29.polls have been all the time, which is that it is roughly 50-50,

:51:30. > :51:34.although maybe just with leave ahead. What we have not had much of

:51:35. > :51:39.during the course of the last week or two weeks or so is much in the

:51:40. > :51:43.way of polls from company to do it by phone. One persistent feature of

:51:44. > :51:47.this referendum is that polls done by phone and have always put Remain

:51:48. > :51:51.in a stronger position than those done over the internet. We will have

:51:52. > :51:57.to wait and see whether they have detected any movement. This still

:51:58. > :52:00.leaves us with the basic uncertainty that we have yet to resolve, which

:52:01. > :52:04.is which of those sets of polls is right. At the position of the polls

:52:05. > :52:10.remains more or less as it has been during the next ten days or so, we

:52:11. > :52:13.will be bantering June 23 with quite considerable uncertainty about what

:52:14. > :52:23.the result is going to be, albeit with a balance of evidence in

:52:24. > :52:28.favour. Why is there that balance? The consensus is, the challenge to

:52:29. > :52:31.the status quo, they Leave campaign, as with the Scottish people during

:52:32. > :52:36.the referendum, need to be a good bit ahead in the referendum to win

:52:37. > :52:40.on the day. But things are 50-50, is there an inertia towards Remain as

:52:41. > :52:44.is going to benefit them? Certainly, Remain can hope for a

:52:45. > :52:51.couple of things. One is that those people who say to pollsters, when

:52:52. > :52:54.asked what they are going to do, which direction they were going,

:52:55. > :53:00.they are rather more inclined to say Remain, so that will help Remain to

:53:01. > :53:05.pick something up. It is true that in general, opinion polls tend to

:53:06. > :53:09.overestimate the appetite for change on major constitutional questions,

:53:10. > :53:11.and we saw a bit of that in the Scottish independence referendum.

:53:12. > :53:15.and we saw a bit of that in the And of course, in particular, one

:53:16. > :53:22.voters who in the end just decided voters who in the end just decided

:53:23. > :53:25.-- decide it is just too much of a risk to Leave switched to Remain.

:53:26. > :53:28.Polls suggest the voters are rather more likely to suggest that leaving

:53:29. > :53:32.is risky than his remaining. That said, we should bear in mind that

:53:33. > :53:37.the Leave side have won absolutely crucial issue going in their

:53:38. > :53:41.direction, which is the question of immigration. So long as that

:53:42. > :53:46.continues to be prominent in many voters' minds, they may still decide

:53:47. > :53:50.to stick with the Leave side. The second consideration, of course, is

:53:51. > :53:51.that given the tomography of this referendum, particularly the fact

:53:52. > :53:54.that given the tomography of this that younger voters are keener on

:53:55. > :53:58.remaining, and although voters want to Leave, and it is basically one of

:53:59. > :54:01.the basic rules of politics that younger voters are going to be less

:54:02. > :54:06.likely to make it to the polls. On that, there is one that of

:54:07. > :54:12.conventional wisdom you want a challenge, as in there? The view is

:54:13. > :54:17.that they low turnout benefits Leave, but that is not quite as

:54:18. > :54:21.straightforward, is it? The level of turnout in the

:54:22. > :54:24.referendum is frankly almost irrelevant. It is the extent to

:54:25. > :54:30.which there are differences in turnout between different social

:54:31. > :54:34.groups and between Remain and Leave supporters that is crucial. The

:54:35. > :54:37.reason why the level of turnout doesn't matter is that the

:54:38. > :54:40.differences in turnout between different social groups, such as

:54:41. > :54:45.younger and older people, can be exactly the same on a 40% turnout as

:54:46. > :54:50.they are in a 65% turnout. If you look at the differences in turnout

:54:51. > :54:55.in the AV referendum in 2011, those differences looked very similar to

:54:56. > :54:57.those in turnout in last year's general election, even though the

:54:58. > :55:00.general election turnout was around 65% and the AV referendum was only

:55:01. > :55:04.40%. The crucial point here is, you

:55:05. > :55:09.believe the driver of turnout will be the normal demographic, not which

:55:10. > :55:18.side you are committed to? Analysing the polls in greater

:55:19. > :55:22.depth, they say what is more likely to explain who is going to turnout

:55:23. > :55:26.and who is not. Once you know someone's age, that seems to pretty

:55:27. > :55:28.much unable you to forecast a relatively weird as soon it will

:55:29. > :55:32.turn out and vote, and whether or not they are Remain or Leave

:55:33. > :55:36.supporters, beyond that, does not seem to matter. So yes, Remain

:55:37. > :55:39.voters are less likely to go to the polls, but it seems to be

:55:40. > :55:42.essentially because they are younger, rather than because they

:55:43. > :55:46.are Remain voters who are perhaps not so particularly convinced that

:55:47. > :55:52.their side is right. Supporters of all parties, apart

:55:53. > :55:59.from Ukip, split on this issue. This week, you have said that this

:56:00. > :56:06.is true of the SNP as much as an Arab as much as any other party.

:56:07. > :56:10.The Conservative Party is split virtually 50-50 in which direction

:56:11. > :56:15.they're going on. Labour is about two to one in favour of Remain. Lots

:56:16. > :56:17.of the Conservatives this week have said their conservatism about no,

:56:18. > :56:20.of the Conservatives this week have but the truth is, that has been the

:56:21. > :56:24.position for a long time, and it is also true that SNP supporters, those

:56:25. > :56:28.who voted for the SNP 12 months ago, also look as though they are roaming

:56:29. > :56:31.around two to one in favour of Remain. Given that they constitute

:56:32. > :56:35.around half of the voters in Scotland, that does give the Remain

:56:36. > :56:40.tied a very considerable advantage, but it is a reminder that although

:56:41. > :56:43.the SNP now very strongly insists that their vision of independence in

:56:44. > :56:46.Scotland is one inside the European Union, and I think that is crucial

:56:47. > :56:53.in understanding why Scotland is much more keen on remaining and the

:56:54. > :56:56.rest of the UK, but it is the case that there is a minority, not

:56:57. > :57:00.inconsiderable, those who are willing to vote for the SNP, who

:57:01. > :57:04.will turn out for Leave. Balancing that out to some extent,

:57:05. > :57:07.there is less of a division, or other, more propensity to vote

:57:08. > :57:09.Remain amongst Conservative supporters?

:57:10. > :57:14.It looks as though in Scotland, the evidence here is, of course much

:57:15. > :57:17.thinner than across the rest of the UK, but it looks as though it is

:57:18. > :57:20.probably true that Conservative supporters in Scotland, probably a

:57:21. > :57:23.majority of them are going to vote Remain, whereas probably south of

:57:24. > :57:29.the border, a majority will vote to Leave. In both cases, the figure is

:57:30. > :57:32.pretty close to 50-50. This is a very important question I

:57:33. > :57:37.want to get to the bottom of. In the last paper you wrote about what

:57:38. > :57:41.groups of people are likely to vote, and how they do it by party, in the

:57:42. > :57:55.polls that you list, at least three of them have about 12 to 40 -- Ukip

:57:56. > :57:58.supporters wanting to Remain. Have they just not understood?

:57:59. > :58:02.There probably are some people out there who vote of the Ukip in 2015

:58:03. > :58:06.because they liked Nigel Farage, maybe they are not that keen on

:58:07. > :58:11.immigration, or gay marriage, but at the end of the day, they are not

:58:12. > :58:16.necessarily convinced that the UK should be in Europe, but they are

:58:17. > :58:19.very decided minority. Opinion polls find around 90% of people who voted

:58:20. > :58:26.for Ukip last year saying they're going to vote, and no figure in an

:58:27. > :58:28.opinion poll ever get higher than 90%.

:58:29. > :58:33.Last point, you seem to suggest a moment ago that immigration could to

:58:34. > :58:42.some extent trumped the conventional wisdom about the status quo winning.

:58:43. > :58:47.Why? Well, the truth is, although a plurality of us think that the

:58:48. > :58:52.economy will be worse if we Leave the EU, it is also true that a

:58:53. > :58:57.majority of us think that immigration will be higher if we

:58:58. > :59:02.Remain. It is also true, by the way, that

:59:03. > :59:06.whereas people think that if we Leave the European Union,

:59:07. > :59:09.immigration will be lower, they are not necessarily convinced that the

:59:10. > :59:14.economy will be better if we Remain. So the truth is, our views on

:59:15. > :59:19.immigration are much more clearly tied to the opinion. People are

:59:20. > :59:22.pretty clear, if we stay in, including many Remain voters, we

:59:23. > :59:27.will get higher immigration, more than we won. If we Leave, we will

:59:28. > :59:30.get lower immigration. On the economy, we think maybe things will

:59:31. > :59:34.get worse if we Leave, but we're not convinced they will get better. So

:59:35. > :59:39.to that extent, at least, the pull on the economic issue is potentially

:59:40. > :59:43.weaker than immigration. But the last few days are really going to be

:59:44. > :59:46.about people's attention. Leave will one be able to focus on the

:59:47. > :59:49.immigration question, because they know if they do, they are more

:59:50. > :59:53.inclined to vote for Leave. Contrary league, they Remain Seibel will want

:59:54. > :59:57.a dog about the economy, and it will be a battle between these two is.

:59:58. > :00:01.That is likely to determine the outcome of the referendum. -- these

:00:02. > :00:03.two issues. Thank you very much indeed.

:00:04. > :00:06.Tom Harris is the Scottish director for the Vote Leave campaign

:00:07. > :00:16.Can I firstly get your reaction to the comments David Cameron made this

:00:17. > :00:21.morning? He suggested the triple lock in pensions might have to go if

:00:22. > :00:27.we left the European Union. It is a bizarre thing for him to say. Just

:00:28. > :00:29.12 weeks ago he said he was keeping his options open. Last year he

:00:30. > :00:34.12 weeks ago he said he was keeping Britain had survived quite easily

:00:35. > :00:37.outside the EU and now he has swung so far to the opposite direction I

:00:38. > :00:44.just do not think we can believe anything he says. OK, what do you

:00:45. > :00:49.want if we leave? For me personally I think the opportunity to trade

:00:50. > :00:54.with the whole world using bilateral trade agreements is a prize worth

:00:55. > :00:58.fighting for. Most people don't realise that as members of the EU we

:00:59. > :01:01.are not allowed legally to forge our own trade links with other

:01:02. > :01:07.countries. All negotiations must be done by the commission which

:01:08. > :01:13.represent 28 different interests all conflicting. So for me the ability

:01:14. > :01:18.to trade worldwide and, crucially, I know it sounds like a Vichy because

:01:19. > :01:23.we have to incorporate about this for so long, to get control of our

:01:24. > :01:26.orders and control of our own legislation. To allow the Scottish

:01:27. > :01:30.Parliament not just more powers but to allow those its elected on to

:01:31. > :01:35.implement without the European Court of Justice over ruling them. The

:01:36. > :01:38.view it set out in the Treasury document says that should there be a

:01:39. > :01:43.league vote the best option for Britain would be too for Britain to

:01:44. > :01:49.join the economic area, you would reject that? Not necessarily. Let's

:01:50. > :01:54.remember. The only question we are asking people on June 23 is whether

:01:55. > :01:59.or not we want to remain members of the EU. After that it is entirely up

:02:00. > :02:02.to members of the negotiating teams. All of these politicians who are

:02:03. > :02:08.campaigning for remain, every single one of them if we vote leave will

:02:09. > :02:10.be. Behind our negotiations campaigning and go seating for the

:02:11. > :02:14.be. Behind our negotiations best possible deal. It will

:02:15. > :02:21.certainly be in the European free trade Association at it is up to

:02:22. > :02:28.politicians to negotiate, not up to Vote Leave to negotiate. It has to

:02:29. > :02:33.be up for negotiation. Even is the crucial thing about freedom of

:02:34. > :02:35.movement. At the moment the defining characteristic of aid Chris Eakin is

:02:36. > :02:41.that we can hold to account the people who make the lows that affect

:02:42. > :02:45.our lives. Inside the EU we cannot do that because the rules about

:02:46. > :02:47.freedom of movement have been made by the EU. Outside the EU our

:02:48. > :02:50.politicians will take responsibility by the EU. Outside the EU our

:02:51. > :02:56.for whatever deal in the negotiate and it will be up to the people...

:02:57. > :03:01.You cannot join the EEA unless you have free movement of labour? Yes, I

:03:02. > :03:05.believe that is the situation but that is why it has to be up to

:03:06. > :03:13.negotiation. Not everyone outside Europe is part of the E EEA.

:03:14. > :03:16.Switzerland is not. If freedom of movement comes in bilateral

:03:17. > :03:22.agreements. We should be entering bilateral agreements with the EU and

:03:23. > :03:24.with destinations outside the EU and then our politicians are held to

:03:25. > :03:27.account for those decisions. then our politicians are held to

:03:28. > :03:32.hang on a second, the problem here is that the main issue for leave is

:03:33. > :03:35.immigration and you're getting a lot of support because people think we

:03:36. > :03:38.do not want free movement of labour and yet now you are telling me we

:03:39. > :03:40.do not want free movement of labour could very well now go seating

:03:41. > :03:45.arrangement with the European union weather like Switzerland or whether

:03:46. > :03:50.like normally which would in fact allow free movement of labour? Look

:03:51. > :03:54.at it this week, at the moment there are negotiations going on at the

:03:55. > :03:58.American trade deal, the learned negotiations going on with India. I

:03:59. > :04:02.guarantee you that those trades gales whenever the emerge at the

:04:03. > :04:07.ever do will not include freedom of movement between the EU and those

:04:08. > :04:12.other countries. You do not have to have freedom of movement to trade

:04:13. > :04:16.with the single market. Neither America nor India will be part of

:04:17. > :04:20.the single market in the way that both Norway and Switzerland are some

:04:21. > :04:25.there would be disadvantages particularly in services to Britain,

:04:26. > :04:29.financial services and other services, by not being part of the

:04:30. > :04:35.single market. The comparison you make is not valid. I think it is

:04:36. > :04:38.valid. I think the idea there is no such thing as life for control of

:04:39. > :04:47.your borders outside the EU is at fallacy propagated by the Remain

:04:48. > :04:51.camp. The key thing is we hope to attend the people who make these

:04:52. > :04:56.decisions. It abysmal access to the single market particularly in

:04:57. > :05:00.financial services where Britain is particularly strong without being

:05:01. > :05:04.part of the single market. What Switzerland does and what normally

:05:05. > :05:07.does is simply not compatible to the levels of access that Canada or

:05:08. > :05:14.India or the United States even want to negotiate. Remember firstly that

:05:15. > :05:18.the single market in services is not even complete yet so that is

:05:19. > :05:22.slightly different from the single market and other goods. There's no

:05:23. > :05:28.doubt that in negotiations would have a very strong negotiating

:05:29. > :05:31.position if our directly elected representatives wanted to negotiate

:05:32. > :05:37.a deal that allowed the level of freedom of union of labour and

:05:38. > :05:41.workers. That is something he would be able to do but they would be held

:05:42. > :05:46.to account by the British people. And on a second. People who are

:05:47. > :05:50.thinking of voting leave because of immigration are going to vote leave

:05:51. > :05:53.because they do not want free movement of labour. They are not

:05:54. > :05:58.voting because they think I do not find that mind free movement of

:05:59. > :06:03.Labour's long as Britain controls it. Now you're telling them they

:06:04. > :06:07.might still have free movement of labour. I do not know what the

:06:08. > :06:12.negotiations well conclude when it comes to freedom of movement of

:06:13. > :06:17.labour. You will have to convince people better than that. What we

:06:18. > :06:20.have at the moment is complete unlimited freedom of movement of

:06:21. > :06:26.anyone who lives in the EU choosing if they wish to come to live in the

:06:27. > :06:28.UK. I don't think most people think that is unacceptable or fair

:06:29. > :06:35.arrangement and I don't think we should go into the host nations that

:06:36. > :06:40.is one of the red lines. If you side wins and the majority of people who

:06:41. > :06:45.vote leave do it because of freedom of movement of labour and then there

:06:46. > :06:50.is a decision to join the EEA and given that some people who vote

:06:51. > :06:55.leave would want a normally situation, there would certainly be

:06:56. > :07:03.a majority in the British Parliament for it, all the remain people in the

:07:04. > :07:06.Tories, Labour, SMP, Ulster Unionists, Liberal Democrats, it

:07:07. > :07:10.would have democratic validity so there is a strong argument to say

:07:11. > :07:14.even if you are thinking of voting leave because you do not want

:07:15. > :07:21.unlimited unquantifiable immigration you will get it no matter which way

:07:22. > :07:25.you vote? That is the remain argument, it doesn't matter which

:07:26. > :07:30.way you vote, nothing can ever change, I reject that. They would be

:07:31. > :07:37.a majority in the country in Parliament for joining the EEA. The

:07:38. > :07:44.only question is do you want to be a member of the European Union. You're

:07:45. > :07:48.missing my point. There would be a majority of voters and a substantial

:07:49. > :07:53.majority in parliament for joining the EEA which would involve free

:07:54. > :07:58.movement of labour? I think that is a silly assumption. There is no

:07:59. > :08:03.polling evidence and no logic in seeing that if the vote one way or

:08:04. > :08:08.another on the 23rd of June that they have strong views on joining

:08:09. > :08:13.the EEA. You guys in the leave campaign cannot even agree on what

:08:14. > :08:16.you want. The only question in the referendum is do you want to be a

:08:17. > :08:23.member of the EU. After that negotiations. . The question is do

:08:24. > :08:28.you want to join the European economic union. There would be a

:08:29. > :08:33.democratic mandate and it would be an option in parliament. It is an

:08:34. > :08:37.option but when the remain camp says we have to follow the template

:08:38. > :08:41.provided by Norway, Switzerland or icelands what they misunderstand as

:08:42. > :08:46.there will be a new precedent and it will be the UK precedent. So, the

:08:47. > :08:51.argument is that while what I'm saying about the EEA is correct

:08:52. > :08:55.Britain can somehow unilaterally change the whole arrangement? I

:08:56. > :08:58.think the UK probably good but the point is whatever negotiations we go

:08:59. > :09:01.into it will be an arrangement which has never been agreed before because

:09:02. > :09:06.there has never been a situation where a major developed rich country

:09:07. > :09:12.has left the EU. The bottom line is that as the head of the Leave

:09:13. > :09:17.campaign in Scotland you cannot sit here and tell voters that if you

:09:18. > :09:25.vote leave the will be no free labour movement across the UK

:09:26. > :09:29.including Britain. The post-war consensus on immigration which was

:09:30. > :09:34.that there was a reassuring is from government throughout those 70 years

:09:35. > :09:36.at immigration was managed and limited and people accepted

:09:37. > :09:42.immigration and it benefited culturally and economically, April

:09:43. > :09:46.accepted our politician's advice that do not worry, if it gets too

:09:47. > :09:55.much we can turn off the tap. We cannot do that in the EU. Some will

:09:56. > :09:58.think I thought leave work in favour of immigration controls but no Tom

:09:59. > :10:04.Harris is just giving us a lecturer in history. You cannot sit there and

:10:05. > :10:08.guaranteed that should people vote leave there will be immigration

:10:09. > :10:13.controls in place to stop migrant workers coming from the European

:10:14. > :10:16.Union, you simply cannot do that? The prize and levers that British

:10:17. > :10:20.politicians were once again have control over our borders and those

:10:21. > :10:25.politicians can then, for the first time in 40 odd years he held to

:10:26. > :10:29.account for the decisions they make. Democratic deficit, one of your

:10:30. > :10:35.favourite subjects. If we were to join the EEA we would contribute to

:10:36. > :10:37.the European Union budget. Norway contributes per capita 80% of what

:10:38. > :10:42.we do. We cut a bit but not that contributes per capita 80% of what

:10:43. > :10:45.much. We would have no control over what the European Union and North

:10:46. > :10:49.Leave in what the European Union decides but we would be bound by the

:10:50. > :10:55.decisions at least when it comes to treating outside areas like

:10:56. > :10:59.fisheries. You seem to have a lot of details of this deal that has not

:11:00. > :11:04.been negotiated yet. That is what happens with the EEA. Let's assume

:11:05. > :11:10.your prediction is right. It is not my prediction I am just telling you

:11:11. > :11:14.what the situation is with the EEA. Norway contribute their freedom of

:11:15. > :11:19.movement and still have two beat every EU regulation. Barely 20% of

:11:20. > :11:24.people in normally want to join the EU so there is something in for

:11:25. > :11:28.them. The advantages, an advantage Norway have that other EU countries

:11:29. > :11:33.don't have is an ability to forge bilateral trade agreements which,

:11:34. > :11:38.for us, is illegal. Norway benefits from that. That is the big prize if

:11:39. > :11:41.we vote leave. It is also the argument they have a double

:11:42. > :11:45.democratic deficit. You complain about the other elected European

:11:46. > :11:51.Commission but with a Norway system we would be paying in and subject to

:11:52. > :11:56.the rules of the EU and we would not have any say at also we would not be

:11:57. > :11:59.able to lobby to have a say with these people at all? The EU

:12:00. > :12:04.regulations you're talking about apply to every single company in

:12:05. > :12:09.Scotland. Only one in 20 companies in Scotland actually export. We

:12:10. > :12:14.would want a deal with only that 5% of companies would have to implement

:12:15. > :12:17.the legislation. Thank you very much indeed.

:12:18. > :12:20.The new Education Secretary has barely been a month in the job,

:12:21. > :12:22.and already he's faced jeering from members of the country's

:12:23. > :12:25.Speaking at the Educational Institute of Scotland's AGM

:12:26. > :12:27.in Dundee, John Swinney re-affirmed his commitment

:12:28. > :12:28.to standardised national assessments.

:12:29. > :12:30.But teachers are angry about what they see as extra

:12:31. > :12:32.workload, and a system which will result in league

:12:33. > :12:47.24 days into the job and if the new Education Secretary was hoping for

:12:48. > :12:51.an extended honeymoon, his hopes were dashed this weekend. He said he

:12:52. > :12:56.was in listening mode and teachers make sure he heard their concerns

:12:57. > :13:00.loud and clear. On stage he made his number one priority crystal clear,

:13:01. > :13:05.to improve the chances of those from the poorest backgrounds. The First

:13:06. > :13:10.Minister has said very publicly and very privately to me that her

:13:11. > :13:13.objective over a 10-year period is to eliminate the attainment gap

:13:14. > :13:17.within Scottish education and within the next five years to make

:13:18. > :13:20.discernible progress on closing that gap and that is exactly what my

:13:21. > :13:26.mandate is to do and that will be my overriding mission. Key to achieving

:13:27. > :13:29.that mission, he said, was the introduction of standardised

:13:30. > :13:34.national testing at every time he broached the subject he was met with

:13:35. > :13:41.booze and jeers. That is my view, OK? We will have a blether about it

:13:42. > :13:45.over a cup of tea. We were delighted when one of the first things you

:13:46. > :13:50.said was that you were going to be a listening minister. I am sure you

:13:51. > :13:55.will listen very carefully to the love in the room when you referred

:13:56. > :13:59.to standardised testing. Teachers view the tests in reading, writing

:14:00. > :14:04.and new Morrissey at Key stages of the Child's education will create

:14:05. > :14:08.extra workload and result in league tables by the back door but the

:14:09. > :14:12.Education Secretary is not for backing down. I know the EIS has

:14:13. > :14:16.concerns about this approach but it will not replace teacher workload

:14:17. > :14:21.because it is a replacement for existing assessment which undertaken

:14:22. > :14:24.within the school system. We will have vigorous debates about these

:14:25. > :14:26.points because we will not be able to agree with everything the AIS has

:14:27. > :14:45.two say to us. The union general secretary urged a

:14:46. > :14:47.yes vote to send a strong message to the Scottish Government.

:14:48. > :14:51.yes vote to send a strong message to But later, they voted in favour of

:14:52. > :14:54.another ballot on industrial action, this time including the possibility

:14:55. > :14:56.of strikes. People are completely stressed. You

:14:57. > :15:01.can see it in their faces in the staff room. You can by tell the

:15:02. > :15:04.number of days of absence which are increasing. People's own well-being

:15:05. > :15:08.has been compromised. I would say it is the worse it has

:15:09. > :15:10.ever been. There are teachers who are staying in their school

:15:11. > :15:12.ever been. There are teachers who establishment until they are thrown

:15:13. > :15:17.out by the janitor at night, and then they're going home and doing

:15:18. > :15:20.even more work. So it is pretty grim.

:15:21. > :15:24.Mr Swinney says he is absolutely committed to reducing teacher

:15:25. > :15:28.workloads, but even if he can keep teachers on board, eliminating the

:15:29. > :15:33.attainment gap may not be wholly in the gift of teachers, or indeed, the

:15:34. > :15:39.Education Secretary himself. It isn't just about what schools do.

:15:40. > :15:42.It is also about the home lives, the support for young people outside of

:15:43. > :15:45.the school gates, and until you can connect those two things together,

:15:46. > :15:48.until you can address poverty, then we will have limited success closing

:15:49. > :15:53.the attainment gap. Of course, this we will have limited success closing

:15:54. > :15:56.Education Secretary also happens to be the Deputy First Minister, and

:15:57. > :15:59.perhaps it is the extra clout of that role which will be key to

:16:00. > :16:02.transforming the life chances of Scotland's children.

:16:03. > :16:05.It's time to look back at the events of the past week and see what's

:16:06. > :16:12.I'm joined by former SNP special advisor Ewan Crawford

:16:13. > :16:20.and the journalist and author Katie Grant.

:16:21. > :16:26.Let's talk about Europe. Less what side you are wrong, I'm just

:16:27. > :16:33.interested in what you make of the campaign. -- what side you are on.

:16:34. > :16:36.Well, I think it is Project Fear against Project Fear. Certainly, in

:16:37. > :16:40.Scotland, I feel a limited by both campaigns. I was thinking last week

:16:41. > :16:44.that if you are trying to persuade people I meet, yes-macro supporters,

:16:45. > :16:48.what would you not do? You would probably not get John Major, Tony

:16:49. > :16:52.Blair and George Osborne to come up and say, it will be a disaster for

:16:53. > :16:54.the union if you come out of the European Union.

:16:55. > :16:58.George Osborne again producing a Treasury document. A very odd way to

:16:59. > :17:01.persuade this big bulk of SNP supporters to vote Remain. On the

:17:02. > :17:08.other hand, I think the Leave campaign now is Project Fear, as

:17:09. > :17:12.John Major says, on stilts. It is an incredibly unattractive,

:17:13. > :17:16.and I'm trying to take my words quite carefully, because I think it

:17:17. > :17:19.is boiling down to basically,", immigrants are coming at your

:17:20. > :17:23.country, taking your jobs and reducing your wages". The really big

:17:24. > :17:27.thing for me in Scotland is, we need to have a population debate, but it

:17:28. > :17:35.is not the one having at the moment. We do have a population as you, --

:17:36. > :17:40.issue, population that is not rising enough.

:17:41. > :17:43.What have you made of it? I think there is far too much hyperbole on

:17:44. > :17:46.both side? It is as if you vote one way or

:17:47. > :17:50.another, the world will suddenly be a marvellous place.

:17:51. > :17:54.Plague and malaria... Exactly, whereas we know that none

:17:55. > :17:57.of these things will happen, because the bureaucracies will continue. The

:17:58. > :18:01.idea that if we Leave EU, suddenly our borders will be those that life

:18:02. > :18:05.will suddenly be rosy and some outback into the 1950s is fictional.

:18:06. > :18:09.The idea that if we Remain in the EU, this is going to be an entirely

:18:10. > :18:13.positive experience is also fictional. And so there needs to be

:18:14. > :18:16.a bit more realism. I think the real difficulty is that the main

:18:17. > :18:20.arguments need to be very detailed. We need to understand things which

:18:21. > :18:27.we currently do not really think about. For example, the European

:18:28. > :18:30.Courts, except in a negative way, when something appears to be a bit

:18:31. > :18:36.peculiar. So we don't really know enough. I am slightly with Richard

:18:37. > :18:39.Dawkins, who wrote a great piece in Prospect magazine this week, saying

:18:40. > :18:44.we should never have been asked in the first place, because we just do

:18:45. > :18:47.not know. I think it will boil down to emotions and the one side and

:18:48. > :18:51.bake practicalities on the other, bit like the independence referendum

:18:52. > :18:58.campaign. Let's not make comparisons with that

:18:59. > :19:02.campaign here, but there is an element of people want to fire a

:19:03. > :19:09.shot at the elites, or feel that they are not being taught to. --

:19:10. > :19:13.talked to. Let's take the question of immigration, which is said is

:19:14. > :19:16.becoming ugly. But the other side of that is, the Bank of England that

:19:17. > :19:20.recent study which found that immigration was having an effect,

:19:21. > :19:23.particularly for unskilled workers at the lower end. You may not say

:19:24. > :19:28.this is a determining thing, what I'm getting at is, people who feel

:19:29. > :19:32.they are fed up with immigration and not benefiting from this system, and

:19:33. > :19:38.when they raise this issue, all they get from the elites are lectures

:19:39. > :19:42.about relative contributions to GDP and all the rest of it, and it

:19:43. > :19:45.doesn't mean anything to me. Absolutely. That Bank of England

:19:46. > :19:53.study, which I was reading about this morning, saying it was not the

:19:54. > :19:56.way the Leave campaign are portraying it, but I agree with you.

:19:57. > :20:00.In terms of the sheer numbers. I'm not saying we are more liberal than

:20:01. > :20:02.other places, I'm saying the situation is different. But you are

:20:03. > :20:07.absolutely right, there are people who have not seen wages go on for

:20:08. > :20:10.10-15 years. They do see Westminster as being very remote, so when people

:20:11. > :20:16.like David Cameron and George Osborne, long, and clearly to me, it

:20:17. > :20:20.is an expression for some people that the system is not fair and has

:20:21. > :20:22.the change, but I'm not quite sure... What concerns me at the

:20:23. > :20:28.moment is why there has been coalesced into what is a pretty ugly

:20:29. > :20:31.anti-immigration sentiment. But it is not just here. You could

:20:32. > :20:35.argue we are seeing the same thing as has happened with Donald Trump in

:20:36. > :20:38.America. He is against the elites, he is a billionaire. Marine Le Pen

:20:39. > :20:43.in France, you have left wing versions with scire is an per day

:20:44. > :20:47.Mars, right across the board. -- Syriza and put them us.

:20:48. > :20:50.Look at what the elites told us about the financial crisis. They

:20:51. > :20:55.wrecked the economy, they are saying, and whatever it is that they

:20:56. > :20:58.are saying is good is not working for me as an individual.

:20:59. > :21:05.And that is one of the problems. All the arguments have become abstract

:21:06. > :21:08.it from real people. So when you ask about individual people who have

:21:09. > :21:15.contributed, for example, then you get statistics about what immigrants

:21:16. > :21:21.in general contribute or don't contribute to the GDP. So we're not

:21:22. > :21:26.thinking about the new as a bunch of people now. We are thinking of it as

:21:27. > :21:30.a sort of on Java abstracted thoughts about immigration, not

:21:31. > :21:35.individual people, and I think when you start to do that, and that is

:21:36. > :21:39.why we get these lectures from the elites, we say, what is going to

:21:40. > :21:42.happen to me? And they answer with a whole lot of general Art is which,

:21:43. > :21:48.on the whole, sound very alarming. Left in still a bit a fuss about

:21:49. > :21:51.what's going to happen to you personally, especially if you've

:21:52. > :21:54.seen your wages drop, but neither side really answers your question

:21:55. > :21:58.because they want to take everything into the rounds of the abstract. I

:21:59. > :22:01.think that is why so many people are still undecided.

:22:02. > :22:07.I will not ask what views are, but I will ask you who you think, standing

:22:08. > :22:10.back from it, which side you think will win?

:22:11. > :22:17.I think it looks really tight at the moment.

:22:18. > :22:22.I think they Remain are going to swing it, but only just, and I think

:22:23. > :22:27.that that is not a very comfortable result.

:22:28. > :22:32.OK. Running out of time. Football violence. The euro is going on. I

:22:33. > :22:35.know Scotland is not taking part. England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

:22:36. > :22:38.We have seen these quite horrible scenes in Marseille. Why have you

:22:39. > :22:44.made of it? Incredibly depressing. It seems to

:22:45. > :22:48.be English elegance, and Russian hooligans played a big part. --

:22:49. > :22:52.English hooligans. And some French.

:22:53. > :22:55.Indeed, if you are just an ordinary citizen in Marseille, looking

:22:56. > :22:58.forward to this festival of football coming to your city, and seeing a

:22:59. > :23:05.torn apart and then last few days, that is incredibly depressing.

:23:06. > :23:09.Also, there were horrendous riots involving England fans in 1998,

:23:10. > :23:12.sparked off by the burning of Tunisian flag. You wonder what

:23:13. > :23:17.bright spark thought it was a good idea to bring the England fans back.

:23:18. > :23:20.Well, I know, and I think there would find the whole thing really,

:23:21. > :23:24.really depressing, because in a world that is full of turmoil, where

:23:25. > :23:28.this was going to help to lift France out of the doldrums, and here

:23:29. > :23:33.we are, it just looks awful. I can hardly bear it. I am not really into

:23:34. > :23:36.football anyway, but I can't bear to look at it, because it seems to be

:23:37. > :23:38.human nature at its worst, and I know that is not the majority of the

:23:39. > :23:50.human nature at its worst, and I fans, who go to have a good time,

:23:51. > :23:52.but the minority I will be see on our screens, and that is what we are

:23:53. > :23:55.going to come away with. Euro 2016 already sort of damage. We

:23:56. > :23:58.will have to Leave it there. Thank you both very much.

:23:59. > :23:59.I'll be back at the same time next week.