:00:43. > :00:50.As campaigning restarts after the tragic death of the MP
:00:51. > :00:53.Jo Cox, we'll be looking at how the final days leading up
:00:54. > :00:55.to Thursday's EU referendum could have a crucial impact
:00:56. > :01:01.The polls suggest it's all still too close to call as voters
:01:02. > :01:04.across the country make their final decision on whether the UK
:01:05. > :01:06.is better off in or out, of the European Union.
:01:07. > :01:10.And we'll be letting both campaigns go head to head
:01:11. > :01:14.as they test the substance of each other's arguments.
:01:15. > :01:15.Coming up in Sunday Politics Scotland:
:01:16. > :01:18.After a tragic week in British politics and with only days left
:01:19. > :01:20.in the referendum campaign, I'll be speaking to
:01:21. > :01:36.All that to come, and as we enter the final lap before the vote
:01:37. > :01:39.which will shape the future of Britain, I'm joined by three
:01:40. > :01:41.journalists who are just as in the dark about the likely
:01:42. > :01:47.Janan Ganesh, Tom Newton Dunn and Janet Daley.
:01:48. > :01:55.So campaigning is slowly beginning again after the death of the Labour
:01:56. > :01:58.MP Jo Cox on Thursday, with events planed today by both
:01:59. > :02:02.the official Remain and Leave groups.
:02:03. > :02:04.And we've heard from big figures from either side on the
:02:05. > :02:10.Labour leader and Remain supporter Jeremy Corbyn and Leave campaigner
:02:11. > :02:12.and Conservative minister Michael Gove were both asked
:02:13. > :02:18.Is there any kind of upper limit to immigration
:02:19. > :02:22.I don't think you can have one while you have the free movement
:02:23. > :02:25.of labour and I think the free movement of labour means that
:02:26. > :02:28.you have to balance the economy so you have to improve living
:02:29. > :02:35.And so that means the European Union's appalling treatment
:02:36. > :02:37.of Greece, particularly the European Central Bank
:02:38. > :02:42.as well as the European Union, that is a problem.
:02:43. > :02:44.So if you actually deliberately lower living standards and increase
:02:45. > :02:47.poverty in certain countries in south-east or eastern Europe,
:02:48. > :02:50.then you are bound to have a flow of people looking for somewhere
:02:51. > :02:55.Surely the issue is an anti-austerity, a growth package
:02:56. > :03:00.When I've had the opportunity to talk about migration
:03:01. > :03:03.during the course of this debate, I hope I have been very clear.
:03:04. > :03:10.I am pro-migration but I believe that the way in which we secure
:03:11. > :03:12.public support for the continued benefits that migration brings
:03:13. > :03:15.and the way in which we secure public support for helping refugees
:03:16. > :03:17.in need is if people feel that they can control the numbers
:03:18. > :03:21.In Canada and Australia, two countries I very much admire,
:03:22. > :03:24.they have control and therefore they are able both to welcome
:03:25. > :03:36.Both sides talking about immigration. Mr Corbyn saying no
:03:37. > :03:42.upper limit as long as we have free movement in the EU. That is honest
:03:43. > :03:49.but will not be welcome perhaps by the Remain campaign. Not in the
:03:50. > :03:53.slightest. The Leave campaign sleeper agent strikes against! It
:03:54. > :03:59.was Alex Gregory thing to say and you can imagine Jeremy Corbyn being
:04:00. > :04:05.piled full briefing notes before, saying whatever you do, don't talk
:04:06. > :04:11.about people coming in their droves -- an extraordinary thing to say. He
:04:12. > :04:15.threw that all in the bin and told it truthfully, as he saw it. It may
:04:16. > :04:22.be the thing that precipitate a leadership challenge on him after
:04:23. > :04:28.the referendum. Much talk of that but no evidence. What did you make
:04:29. > :04:33.of it? I picked was a phenomenal performance for a covert agent for
:04:34. > :04:38.the opposite side, not such a good performance for a sincere... It was
:04:39. > :04:43.honest. It was candid but there is still an element of the country
:04:44. > :04:47.which is pro-Remain in the most grudging way possible and his
:04:48. > :04:50.approach might resonate a bit more with the more enthusiastic approach
:04:51. > :04:55.from George Osborne or David Cameron. The most telling thing this
:04:56. > :04:59.morning is when Nigel Farage was pressed on his controversial poster
:05:00. > :05:02.on migration a few days ago and his response was to say that the
:05:03. > :05:07.mainstream Leave campaign have come up with some pretty fruity posters
:05:08. > :05:12.of their own on that subject. I think the beginnings of a split
:05:13. > :05:16.between those sides of the Leave campaign, on the tone of how you
:05:17. > :05:20.deal with the issue of migration, might open up even in the last few
:05:21. > :05:26.days. Is there a difference to the tone of the campaign even when
:05:27. > :05:31.talking about immigration? Or is it back to business as usual? The
:05:32. > :05:37.substance of the argument remains substance of the argument remains
:05:38. > :05:44.the same Ulster Jeremy Corbyn put his finger in the league right on
:05:45. > :05:49.it. As a consequence of the hideous events of the last couple of days if
:05:50. > :05:54.that is a tendency to imply that anybody associated with the Leave
:05:55. > :05:59.campaign, anybody who expresses concerns about the numbers of
:06:00. > :06:05.immigrants, the flow of migration, is somehow a right-wing extremist, a
:06:06. > :06:11.fascist who is, by implication, associated with this crime. Jeremy
:06:12. > :06:15.Corbyn didn't do that. I am saying there is a tone in the media
:06:16. > :06:17.coverage that implies guilt by association with anybody who
:06:18. > :06:26.expresses concern about migration and that is very dangerous because
:06:27. > :06:30.the surest way to drive people into extraparliamentary opposition and
:06:31. > :06:33.dissidents is to make it clear that no respectable politician will pick
:06:34. > :06:38.up their concerns. Did you agree with Nigel Farage? Of course not.
:06:39. > :06:46.Nothing is wrong with pointing it out. George Osborne has poured
:06:47. > :06:55.petrol on the plane is talking about the echoes of 1930s. -- the flames.
:06:56. > :07:00.That is absurd. Your point about a split in the Leave campaign, there
:07:01. > :07:07.have been a split from the off. Right from the beginning. There is a
:07:08. > :07:14.difference in tone between... I was going to say, the story last week
:07:15. > :07:19.was of a widening gap with Remain in the lead that was the opinion polls,
:07:20. > :07:23.sorry, with Leave in the lead. If you were on the Remain site, would
:07:24. > :07:29.you not take comfort from the polls today? Especially from the fact
:07:30. > :07:33.that, according to YouGov, the mood in the polls predate the killing of
:07:34. > :07:35.Jo Cox so you could conclusion there is a structural reversion to
:07:36. > :07:44.continue to which often occurs before big elections. -- continuity.
:07:45. > :07:49.But it does not help that you have the lead of the opposition getting
:07:50. > :07:54.into a conversation about free movement. One of the biggest poll
:07:55. > :08:00.findings, the number of people who feel they would lose out material
:08:01. > :08:03.from Brexit has gone up from 23 233% and that is how win.
:08:04. > :08:05.Plenty of opinion polls in this morning's papers,
:08:06. > :08:07.as you'd expect in the last weekend before the vote.
:08:08. > :08:10.There will be more to come in the days ahead.
:08:11. > :08:13.Of course, polls are not quite the holy grail these days,
:08:14. > :08:15.especially after their failure to get the result right
:08:16. > :08:18.And the pollsters find referendums even trickier than other votes.
:08:19. > :08:21.But imperfect as they may be, they're what we've got and they've
:08:22. > :08:23.told an interesting story throughout the campaign.
:08:24. > :08:29.Polls conducted by phone like this one back in May by Ipsos Mori have
:08:30. > :08:31.consistently put Remain ahead - here with an 18-point lead,
:08:32. > :08:38.But signs things were changing emerged at the end of last month,
:08:39. > :08:41.as one phone poll showed Leave three points ahead.
:08:42. > :08:44.And just this Thursday the latest Ipsos Mori survey caused a bit
:08:45. > :08:47.of a stir when it showed Leave with a six-point lead.
:08:48. > :08:54.But those carried out online have shown a different story,
:08:55. > :08:57.with the two sides level pegging or with Leave ahead.
:08:58. > :09:02.Back in May before the 'purdah' period which stopped the government
:09:03. > :09:04.taking part in the campaign, one internet poll gave
:09:05. > :09:08.Almost a month later, another online poll,
:09:09. > :09:14.this one by ICM, had Leave five points ahead.
:09:15. > :09:17.But this YouGov survey is one of four polls released overnight,
:09:18. > :09:20.suggesting both sides are neck and neck, suggesting the result
:09:21. > :09:27.So that's the story told by the polls in the months leading
:09:28. > :09:29.up to the referendum, and just so you have the full
:09:30. > :09:35.YouGov for the Sunday Times puts Remain on 44%, one point
:09:36. > :09:42.Another YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain gives
:09:43. > :09:48.Opinium for the Observer has Leave and Remain level pegging on 44%.
:09:49. > :09:50.And Survation for the Mail on Sunday, the only telephone
:09:51. > :10:00.poll today, has Remain on 45% and Leave on 42%.
:10:01. > :10:04.Well, there's only one man we can turn to explain what it all means -
:10:05. > :10:06.I speak of course of elections expert John Curtice,
:10:07. > :10:20.Four new polls out this morning. What do they tell us? They certainly
:10:21. > :10:24.provide a degree of relief for David Cameron and the remaining macro side
:10:25. > :10:30.after some dire polls last week which almost unanimously suggested a
:10:31. > :10:34.sharp drop in support for Remain. But it is perhaps an indication of
:10:35. > :10:39.just how tight this referendum has become that three Internet polls
:10:40. > :10:45.between suggested it was 50-50 and one telephone pole, which although
:10:46. > :10:49.it puts Remain back in the lead, it makes the lead much narrower that in
:10:50. > :10:54.any previous point in the campaign. The fact that that is regarded as
:10:55. > :10:58.good news for them is an indication of how much trouble they had got
:10:59. > :11:06.into seemingly. I think these polls were taken at a time when it was too
:11:07. > :11:11.early, tell me if I'm wrong, to see if the appalling tragedy of Jo Cox
:11:12. > :11:17.has had any impact on the campaign. I think that is correct. The
:11:18. > :11:22.telephone poll was done entirely afterwards, one of the YouGov polls
:11:23. > :11:26.was done mostly afterwards. They are saying that the poll they did just
:11:27. > :11:33.before was already showing Remain increasing and the one after shows
:11:34. > :11:36.that continuing further. Given that there was a widespread expectation
:11:37. > :11:42.that perhaps Remain would start to regain ground as people considered
:11:43. > :11:46.the possible risks of voting for Leave, maybe this process had
:11:47. > :11:51.already kicked in and that is explaining something of a movement
:11:52. > :11:55.back towards Remain, and it may not necessarily have anything to do with
:11:56. > :11:58.the tragic murder of Jo Cox. There is nothing in these polls to be able
:11:59. > :12:09.to pin it definitively on that particular event. It is often said
:12:10. > :12:13.in referenda that there can be a reversion to the status quo on the
:12:14. > :12:17.final day and that would be to vote to remain. Is there any sign of
:12:18. > :12:23.that? And what can you tell us about the undecideds? I saw some of the
:12:24. > :12:28.polling suggesting that those who were undecided, if they vote, they
:12:29. > :12:34.are more likely to vote to remain than to come out. Your first point,
:12:35. > :12:39.it is precisely whether that process are people reverting back to the
:12:40. > :12:43.status quo is already kicking in and this explains why the polls this
:12:44. > :12:47.weekend are somewhat better than those in the week. And I think what
:12:48. > :12:55.it does seem to be the case, we are asking is that movement to leave was
:12:56. > :12:59.a stone that was gathering more moss and would continue this weekend and
:13:00. > :13:04.that clearly hadn't happened. Remain may hope that people reverting back
:13:05. > :13:10.to the status quo might happen, that is the first point. The second was
:13:11. > :13:16.about the significance of the undecideds. The number of them going
:13:17. > :13:20.down and the people who have made up their mind is going up but you are
:13:21. > :13:26.right that most polls find that the people who don't know are most
:13:27. > :13:31.likely to vote first of all and the second thing they are likely to do
:13:32. > :13:36.is to vote for Remain. And many of the opinion polls published now are
:13:37. > :13:39.already including into their headline tallies the reported votes
:13:40. > :13:45.of those who initially said they were undecided but are asked a
:13:46. > :13:50.follow up squeeze question. We should not say there is more ground
:13:51. > :13:53.to be made for Remain from that particular phenomenon. Thank you.
:13:54. > :13:56.Only a few days to go, so how will the campaigns try to win
:13:57. > :14:00.over undecided voters in the short time they have remaining?
:14:01. > :14:02.Well, we're joined now from Somerset by the former Lib Dem
:14:03. > :14:07.And here in the studio by the Labour MP and Leave campaigner,
:14:08. > :14:20.Paddy Ashdown, do you get a sense this weekend, if I can put it this
:14:21. > :14:27.way, that the Remain campaign is back on track? Andrew Neil, you
:14:28. > :14:34.really want to bring me on straight after John Curtis, my nemesis, and
:14:35. > :14:39.ask me to disagree with him! The last time I had to eat my hat... I
:14:40. > :14:43.disagreed with John twice on the poll now and I have been wrong on
:14:44. > :14:47.every occasion and I'm delighted to make my apologies to him on your
:14:48. > :14:51.programme. I don't know all the I think what you're talking about with
:14:52. > :14:58.John about the undecided voters maybe keep to this, if they vote or
:14:59. > :15:05.not, and if they do, will they vote in favour of remaining as people
:15:06. > :15:09.predict. I don't think any of us know. It is all within a margin of
:15:10. > :15:17.error, it is all to play for and it looks to me, extremely tight.
:15:18. > :15:18.Perhaps a small shift in favour of remaining macro but too small to be
:15:19. > :15:27.certain about it. We got some austere stories about
:15:28. > :15:31.the economy from the Chancellor this morning on ITV. In the final three
:15:32. > :15:38.days, starting tomorrow, three more days of campaigning to go, is that
:15:39. > :15:42.the right way to go, or would you advise the Remain campaign to start
:15:43. > :15:47.putting out a more positive message about remaining in the EU? They are
:15:48. > :15:52.following a playbook they have followed before. I'm not involved
:15:53. > :15:56.with the Remain campaign. My advice to voters, when it comes to
:15:57. > :16:01.predictions on the economy, do not listen to either side, listen to the
:16:02. > :16:06.independent voices whose job it is, paid by all the nations on earth, to
:16:07. > :16:10.make judgments about the economic consequences of our political
:16:11. > :16:16.actions. They have been wrong before, but I'll be all wrong? Are
:16:17. > :16:20.only Mr Johnson and Mr Farage red? People need to realise they are
:16:21. > :16:25.betting their jobs and the national economy on this. Nothing is certain,
:16:26. > :16:30.but when you make the judgment, you probably want to wear on your mind,
:16:31. > :16:35.not George Osborne's comments, or Boris Johnson's from the other side,
:16:36. > :16:40.they will put the point as they want to, but those independent voices,
:16:41. > :16:44.every single one of them, without exception, who are independent of
:16:45. > :16:53.the campaign, the global experts on this. This is not a conspiracy, it
:16:54. > :16:55.is a consensus, all of them say it will seriously damage our economy.
:16:56. > :17:05.For most people, worried about their jobs, that will be a more powerful
:17:06. > :17:10.factor in making your decision. More powerful than the words of the
:17:11. > :17:14.opposition parties. Some in Remain may not regard it as helpful, but
:17:15. > :17:19.Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC this morning that with free movement
:17:20. > :17:23.within the EU, you can have no upper limit on immigration. That was
:17:24. > :17:30.accurate and honest, wasn't it? One thing you can be sure of, if we
:17:31. > :17:34.leave the European Union, you will control immigration, but not anyway
:17:35. > :17:39.that the out campaigners claim. You will trash the economy, far fewer
:17:40. > :17:44.jobs and no one will want to come here. Your language is interesting.
:17:45. > :17:50.We will trash the economy, not that we will not grow as fast, not that
:17:51. > :17:58.it will be better to stay in than I'd, but we will trash the economy?
:17:59. > :18:02.Find another word, if you wish. We are slowly recovering from
:18:03. > :18:08.recession. It has been massive pain to get out of the mess we were in.
:18:09. > :18:13.The international economy, all of those who comment, they say in big
:18:14. > :18:17.terms are small towns, the used strong words are relatively more
:18:18. > :18:24.moderated ones, the agree it will push us back into recession. You can
:18:25. > :18:27.use trash the economy or say we are going back into recession. Creating
:18:28. > :18:31.those jobs, making Britain one of the best economies in Europe, we
:18:32. > :18:37.would turn that around if we came out. The consequences will be for
:18:38. > :18:41.jobs and businesses, the tax revenues for the government that
:18:42. > :18:47.pays for our public services, it will be very serious. John Mann,
:18:48. > :18:52.immigration has been a big part of the Leave campaign. Did the town get
:18:53. > :18:58.too hostile on immigration, did it get to a robust? Yes, and Nigel
:18:59. > :19:02.Farage's poster is the worst example of that. It would be better known if
:19:03. > :19:07.it had not been produced and he withdrew it. It is unhelpful and
:19:08. > :19:13.inaccurate, irrelevant to the real debate. So yes. What did you make of
:19:14. > :19:19.Jeremy Corbyn's remarks this morning on immigration? The issues in
:19:20. > :19:24.working-class communities remain. The issues are about pay, agency
:19:25. > :19:30.work, they are about people's hopes for the future. When you have zero
:19:31. > :19:34.our contracts, when the health services under pressure, and people
:19:35. > :19:38.see privatisation and cuts, the Labour agenda on Friday, whatever
:19:39. > :19:46.the result, it has to get into that. If it is a Leave vote, the first
:19:47. > :19:50.thing Labour could be doing was demanding a dash was demanding an
:19:51. > :19:54.immediate end of the procurement rules for public services. We could
:19:55. > :19:57.argue for an increase in public servers pay, to stop the impact of
:19:58. > :20:02.the European Court rulings and reinforcing agencies. It is agencies
:20:03. > :20:09.and the uncertainty in the labour market that is really behind the
:20:10. > :20:11.strain that appears to be in working -- the strength that appears to be
:20:12. > :20:19.in working-class communities for Kallis leave. There are only three
:20:20. > :20:24.days to go. Is the biggest issue immigration again? I hope not. I
:20:25. > :20:29.hope it is about hope and vision for what kind of country we want in the
:20:30. > :20:33.future, and how best in the modern technological age, where the
:20:34. > :20:37.computer has been invented, where we order things online, where big
:20:38. > :20:43.developments will get even faster, about how we deal with the whole of
:20:44. > :20:50.the world. I think that politicians, MPs, all of us, myself included, we
:20:51. > :20:55.remain extremely shaken by the horrific murder of Jo Cox. I think
:20:56. > :21:01.there will be less campaigning, less than there was. However strong
:21:02. > :21:06.people's views, they do not want to be banging on doors at the current
:21:07. > :21:10.time. I think there will be less politicians out and about and there
:21:11. > :21:15.would have been. There seems to be of their weight behind Leave, last
:21:16. > :21:18.week, certainly, up until the terrible events on Thursday. Do you
:21:19. > :21:23.get a sense that it could be slipping away from you this weekend?
:21:24. > :21:26.From the polls last time, I would have expected them to bounce back
:21:27. > :21:32.little bit. It will depend on turnout. If there is a
:21:33. > :21:38.disproportionately high turnout in the areas that do not normally vote,
:21:39. > :21:44.it will end up with a Leave vote. If it is lower, it will be Remain.
:21:45. > :21:48.Turnout will decide. It is not predictable. I hope the vast
:21:49. > :21:52.majority of people are voting and whatever the result, we need to get
:21:53. > :22:01.together as a country, and get behind that result. Paddy Ashdown...
:22:02. > :22:05.Would you allow me. It is a really important statement that John Mann
:22:06. > :22:09.has made. I admire him very much and I know he is just as interested in
:22:10. > :22:14.the future of this country as I am. If it is the case that the terrible
:22:15. > :22:19.death of Jo Cox, who I campaigned with on the issues of refugees and
:22:20. > :22:25.two I had massive admiration for, if that has led to a change in tone,
:22:26. > :22:28.that would be welcome. The way that John put his case and the way he
:22:29. > :22:33.moved away from the Nigel Farage poster, which I find distasteful, if
:22:34. > :22:38.that is the tone of this campaign, I do not think it will massively alter
:22:39. > :22:43.the result, but that last we will have a campaign we can be proud of,
:22:44. > :22:48.one that I have felt so far extremely ashamed about. High octane
:22:49. > :22:53.insults from both sides. Some of that is because it is an internal
:22:54. > :22:57.civil war in the Tory party, and they are always the worst. I was at
:22:58. > :23:03.the Oval the other day, and the man came up to the In campaign and said
:23:04. > :23:07.they should be executed. If we can get away from that, lower the tone
:23:08. > :23:12.and follow the approach John Mann is suggesting, we will have a good
:23:13. > :23:16.debate, honoured democracy, and it's essential qualities of tolerance and
:23:17. > :23:21.respect for others, rather than the kind of thing we have had in recent
:23:22. > :23:27.weeks. Will the final three days of the campaign be that different in
:23:28. > :23:35.tone? I think they will be. Certainly members of Parliament will
:23:36. > :23:39.be careful on the language used. I hope on the Leave site, everyone
:23:40. > :23:45.will distance themselves from Nigel Farage's poster and what lay behind
:23:46. > :23:48.that. I hope that on the Remain side, people Walsh move away from
:23:49. > :23:56.the exaggerations that have taken place. -- people will move. Paddy
:23:57. > :24:02.Ashdown. I agree with that as well. We have dealt in hyperbole. The
:24:03. > :24:07.public does not trust either side. If we can change that now, if we can
:24:08. > :24:13.come back to a statement of the facts, maybe relying on independent
:24:14. > :24:18.opinions, I think the last few days of the campaign will honour us. In
:24:19. > :24:22.the interests of our anti-hyperbole Drive, can both Remain and Leave
:24:23. > :24:27.agree that when the French economic minister says that if we vote to
:24:28. > :24:33.leave, we will be no more important than Guernsey, we can file that
:24:34. > :24:39.under hyperbole? Yes, you can. You may be able to file it under trash.
:24:40. > :24:41.Thank you. Thank you, John Mann, we can file that under hyperbole? Yes,
:24:42. > :24:46.we can. Now, over the past two weeks we've
:24:47. > :24:49.been letting the politicians from either side of this referendum
:24:50. > :24:51.debate interrogate each other over what they feel are the really
:24:52. > :24:54.big issues at stake. Today, in the last of the series
:24:55. > :24:56.for now, we've invited the Green Party MP and Remain
:24:57. > :24:59.campaigner Caroline Lucas to question the Conservative
:25:00. > :25:00.minister and Leave campaigner A little earlier, we tossed a coin
:25:01. > :25:07.to see who would go first. Dominic was the winner,
:25:08. > :25:09.and he chose to answer So, before we get started,
:25:10. > :25:18.let's have a listen to Domnic Raab making the case for why undecided
:25:19. > :25:25.voters should vote to leave. I am confident in you,
:25:26. > :25:30.the British people, and I am also convinced with my head and my heart
:25:31. > :25:33.that we can only reach our full Take some of the positives
:25:34. > :25:39.of leaving the EU, our small businesses would be freed up
:25:40. > :25:43.from straitjacket regulation. That is important for us
:25:44. > :25:46.because small businesses in this We would be freed up to trade more
:25:47. > :25:51.energetically with the growth markets of the future,
:25:52. > :25:53.from Asia to Latin America, which will cut prices in the shops,
:25:54. > :26:01.and we will take back full control over the money we give the EU,
:26:02. > :26:04.and our gross contribution is now ?350 million every week
:26:05. > :26:06.and certain to rise. When it comes to immigration it can
:26:07. > :26:08.bring huge benefits, but only if it is properly
:26:09. > :26:10.controlled. Uncontrolled immigration from the EU
:26:11. > :26:14.has put pressure on jobs and wages, and a massive strain
:26:15. > :26:15.on infrastructure, The truth is, we cannot properly
:26:16. > :26:21.control immigration There is something bigger in this
:26:22. > :26:24.debate, something I want us to be masters
:26:25. > :26:29.of our own destiny. I want it as a citizen,
:26:30. > :26:32.as a father, and I want it With the majority of laws now made
:26:33. > :26:38.in Brussels by politicians and bureaucrats not elected
:26:39. > :26:41.by or accountable to you, we can only truly be masters
:26:42. > :26:44.of our own destiny if we vote to leave the EU on 23rd June
:26:45. > :26:49.and take back democratic control. And here are Caroline
:26:50. > :26:51.Lucas and Dominic Raab. And just to explain the rules,
:26:52. > :27:00.Caroline has just five minutes She can only ask questions,
:27:01. > :27:10.and he can only give answers. Thank you. Dominik, how much is
:27:11. > :27:16.Britain's net weekly contribution to the EU? Weekly? The grosses 350
:27:17. > :27:21.million and the net contribution is around half of that. You will know
:27:22. > :27:26.that on this leaflet it says, let's give NHS the 350 million the EU
:27:27. > :27:30.takes every week. Is that not misleading because it is not the
:27:31. > :27:34.real figure? After was four months of campaigning, people have
:27:35. > :27:37.understood there is a difference between the gross contribution, and
:27:38. > :27:42.that includes some of the things that the EU spends in this country
:27:43. > :27:47.on our behalf, without is being able to prioritise, as well as the amount
:27:48. > :27:53.we give and do not see back. We want the money back that the EU spends on
:27:54. > :27:58.itself. Do you accept this as a wrong figure? We want control over
:27:59. > :28:02.the money we put in. It is the gross contribution, I have made that
:28:03. > :28:07.clear. We never send the men from the rebate, so we cannot possibly be
:28:08. > :28:12.spending that again on the NHS. Why should anyone believe your side on
:28:13. > :28:15.the NHS, given that also some of the key vote leave campaigners are
:28:16. > :28:21.people who want to privatise the NHS? We have a wide range of
:28:22. > :28:26.politicians involved. We have heard from John Mann. You're some of the
:28:27. > :28:31.most left-wing unions like our side. In relation to what we said about
:28:32. > :28:35.the NHS, we would take 100 million each week from the net contribution.
:28:36. > :28:40.That is the allocation that would be made. When you get your salary from
:28:41. > :28:47.the House of Commons you get a gross figure. There is a difference
:28:48. > :28:50.between that and your take-home pay. There is no difference here. That is
:28:51. > :28:55.a misleading figure. I want to come onto another poster. This is another
:28:56. > :28:59.one you will be familiar with. The Leave side are sending at around the
:29:00. > :29:05.country. It says that Turkey I leaving the EU. On a scale of one to
:29:06. > :29:13.ten, how would you rate the suggestion that Turkey is close to
:29:14. > :29:16.becoming a EU member? I think it is right. Turkey is in the process of
:29:17. > :29:25.joining. British taxpayers are already paying ?1.8 billion between
:29:26. > :29:28.2014 and 2022 pave the way. We have had politicians from Tony Blair to
:29:29. > :29:34.David Cameron making it clear that the UK wants Turkey to join the EU.
:29:35. > :29:42.The UK has a veto, doesn't it? It cannot possibly join in the UK uses
:29:43. > :29:48.that? It is a theoretical veto. It is real. Can you imagine Cyprus not
:29:49. > :29:52.using its veto? From Tony Blair to David Cameron, the consensus in this
:29:53. > :29:57.country is that Turkey should join the EU. Our diplomats are working on
:29:58. > :30:03.measures to expedite that happening. You have got to take into account
:30:04. > :30:06.the impact that would have. How many of the 35 chapters or areas of
:30:07. > :30:10.compliance that Turkey would have to fulfil before it could join, how
:30:11. > :30:11.many of those have been fulfilled in the last 30 years they have been
:30:12. > :30:25.trying to join? Not many. It is one. That is why it is worrying that in
:30:26. > :30:28.Whitehall and in Brussels they are expediting Turkish membership. I was
:30:29. > :30:31.in the Foreign Office when the eight countries from Central and eastern
:30:32. > :30:35.Europe were playing and in many of those cases those criteria were
:30:36. > :30:40.ignored because the political will was there and that is what we have
:30:41. > :30:43.now. Would you accept that this leaflet is misleading because it
:30:44. > :30:51.sounds like it is going to happen soon and it clearly isn't and
:30:52. > :30:55.Britain has a veto? Turkish membership of the EU is a question
:30:56. > :30:59.of when and not if and in that case it is right. Do you think is
:31:00. > :31:02.contributing to an atmosphere of fear and hatred? The responsible
:31:03. > :31:07.thing is to talk about immigration in a sensitive way and if you ignore
:31:08. > :31:10.it and you don't talk about the costs of immigration, you're going
:31:11. > :31:19.to get far more fringe extremist politics. That's not airbrush it out
:31:20. > :31:22.of the debate. I want to ask you, key campaigners on the Leave side
:31:23. > :31:27.like Nigel Lawson and Nigel Farage are at best climate sceptics is not
:31:28. > :31:30.climate deniers do you agree with them? I'm not a climate sceptic at
:31:31. > :31:35.climate deniers do you agree with all. You were pleased to see the
:31:36. > :31:39.agreement in Paris? Did the EU play a good role? The problem we have is
:31:40. > :31:43.that 10% of CO2 emissions come from the EU and 90% from the rest of the
:31:44. > :31:48.world so we need a global 08 regional approach. When I dealt with
:31:49. > :31:51.a lot of global institutions, the problem is the EU is so inward
:31:52. > :31:55.looking, we lose sight of the big picture and it is global not
:31:56. > :32:01.regional. The EU played a key role in Paris in terms of ratcheting up
:32:02. > :32:03.the ambition, yes or no? I don't think the ambition was particularly
:32:04. > :32:05.high if you look at the Regent of the world outside the EU. We will
:32:06. > :32:09.leave it there. -- the regions. Now it's the turn of Caroline
:32:10. > :32:11.to be cross-examined. First, let's have a look
:32:12. > :32:14.at her pitch to undecided voters, arguing the case
:32:15. > :32:19.for a vote to remain. They are in their early 20s now,
:32:20. > :32:23.and this referendum goes to the heart of the kind of future
:32:24. > :32:26.I want for them, that all of us want for our young
:32:27. > :32:29.people and for Britain. Yet there is a risk that the outcome
:32:30. > :32:32.will be decided by older generations if young people do not get
:32:33. > :32:35.out and vote. The EU can help us build a safer,
:32:36. > :32:38.better future, because the biggest challenges we face today
:32:39. > :32:40.are by their very nature international, and are best tackled
:32:41. > :32:42.by working hand-in-hand with our neighbours,
:32:43. > :32:45.challenges like climate change, the refugee crisis, cross-border
:32:46. > :32:50.crime and terrorism. The EU has been a force for good,
:32:51. > :32:53.from guaranteeing workers' rights to protecting our shared environment
:32:54. > :32:56.and helping to create jobs in every To turn our backs on this would be
:32:57. > :33:02.to turn our backs on a safer, greener, more prosperous
:33:03. > :33:04.and peaceful future. This referendum will define
:33:05. > :33:06.what kind of country our children Do we want to be an isolated,
:33:07. > :33:15.inward-looking country that cares only about what it can get out
:33:16. > :33:19.of the rest of the world, or do we want to be a generous,
:33:20. > :33:22.confident and outward-looking country that wants to be able
:33:23. > :33:25.to play its part in making Let's not take our
:33:26. > :33:27.country backwards. I taught my children that the right
:33:28. > :33:31.thing to do when confronted with a challenge is to stand tall
:33:32. > :33:34.and find a solution, That is why I am voting to remain
:33:35. > :33:40.on June 23rd and I am So, as before, Dominic,
:33:41. > :33:45.you have six minutes to question Caroline,
:33:46. > :33:57.off you go. The organisation which is trying to
:33:58. > :34:03.independently verify facts for the public estimate that around 50 to
:34:04. > :34:06.60% of UK law that are now made in Brussels. How high would that
:34:07. > :34:11.percentage have to be for you to be in favour of leaving the EU? It
:34:12. > :34:14.depends why those rules are being made in Brussels. They are being
:34:15. > :34:18.made because getting single market and we want to make sure there are
:34:19. > :34:22.strong social and environmental standards, I'm delighted that they
:34:23. > :34:25.are being made in Brussels, they should be come they are there
:34:26. > :34:29.because we want to make sure cross-border problems like air
:34:30. > :34:32.pollution are controlled because we have the ability to work
:34:33. > :34:37.cross-border in the EU, absolutely it should be there. Looking at bold
:34:38. > :34:42.figures does not help us. If 100% of the laws were made in Brussels,
:34:43. > :34:46.fined by you? It's a bit ridiculous to think that not a single domestic
:34:47. > :34:52.law would be made in Britain. Things like housing and defence and some
:34:53. > :34:56.issues are still decided at UK level. Where would you draw the
:34:57. > :34:59.line? I'm trying to get a sense of when you think the tipping point
:35:00. > :35:04.arrives when we have lost so much of our democracy. I would challenge the
:35:05. > :35:09.premise of your question because the idea that the EU is fundamentally
:35:10. > :35:13.more undemocratic than with Minster is wrong. The government that you
:35:14. > :35:16.represent was elected with just 24% of the eligible vote, we have an
:35:17. > :35:21.unelected House of Lords, at least in the European institutions we have
:35:22. > :35:23.a parliament are through proportional representation and the
:35:24. > :35:27.Council of ministers which means that if a democratic oversight of
:35:28. > :35:33.the rules coming from Brussels. When the people watching the show get to
:35:34. > :35:36.hold to account the 27th of heads of government in the European Council,
:35:37. > :35:43.the 10th of thousands of bureaucrats and the 90% of MEPs not from
:35:44. > :35:48.Britain? -- tens of thousands. There are fewer people working for the
:35:49. > :35:52.interjections in Brussels than for Kent County Council for example. --
:35:53. > :36:04.for the institutions. I would be the first to say that
:36:05. > :36:10.EU should be more democratic and accountable, I would like to see the
:36:11. > :36:13.European Parliament have more powers and the commission have fewer. To
:36:14. > :36:18.suggest that would be a reason for leaving the EU is just wrong, we
:36:19. > :36:22.need to be in there to fight it. Net immigration from the EU was 184,000
:36:23. > :36:30.last year, that is the equivalent of a size city the size of Oxford. Do
:36:31. > :36:35.you think there should be any limit on the volume of immigration from
:36:36. > :36:39.the EU? Jeremy Corbyn said note this morning. I think it will be
:36:40. > :36:42.self-regulating to an extent because people are coming because the other
:36:43. > :36:48.fifth richest country in the world and there are jobs here. So we don't
:36:49. > :36:51.need a limit? To have an arbitrary limit would be ineffective and we
:36:52. > :36:54.have seen that from looking at your own promise to try to do by talking
:36:55. > :36:58.about bringing it down to tens of thousands. There is no way he can do
:36:59. > :37:02.that because there is more migration coming from outside the EU that
:37:03. > :37:07.inside anyway. Take Romania and Bulgaria, the average wage around ?3
:37:08. > :37:10.an hour, we have a minimum rate of ?7.20 an hour, eight strong pull
:37:11. > :37:17.factor which puts strains on the and housing. If it up price worth
:37:18. > :37:20.paying for staying in? There are so many assumptions in your question.
:37:21. > :37:23.Most of the pressure on our housing and education and health system is
:37:24. > :37:27.coming from a lack of investment and cuts on the government, not from
:37:28. > :37:30.people coming in. In the NHS you are far more likely to be treated by
:37:31. > :37:34.someone who has come from another European country. There are some
:37:35. > :37:39.real challenges in there. I'm not saying that regression doesn't bring
:37:40. > :37:43.pressures but we should be recognising there is a net economic
:37:44. > :37:46.benefit that migrants bring with them so let's invest that properly
:37:47. > :37:51.in the services in the area. The latest report by the EU's
:37:52. > :37:55.anti-corruption body shows fraudulent abuse of EU funds at
:37:56. > :38:00.record levels, they have been criticised for not even implementing
:38:01. > :38:04.the first obligation under the UN's Convention against corruption. Under
:38:05. > :38:07.our aid policy, we would not give a penny of taxpayers money to a poor
:38:08. > :38:12.African country that would not comply with UN standards but we give
:38:13. > :38:15.billions to the EU. Are you comfortable with that? I'm not
:38:16. > :38:19.comfortable with corruption or fraud but I don't think the EU has a
:38:20. > :38:22.monopoly on that and many times the accounts have not been able to be
:38:23. > :38:25.signed up because individual nation states have not done their job
:38:26. > :38:32.properly, it is government at fault, not the EU. In your election
:38:33. > :38:37.manifesto you referred to the EU's unsustainable economic 's. Do you
:38:38. > :38:41.still hold that view? I think it is unsustainable whether at EU level or
:38:42. > :38:46.British level and the way to do that do that is to fight it in Britain
:38:47. > :38:48.and in the EU. Thank you to both of you.
:38:49. > :38:50.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:51. > :38:53.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:54. > :39:00.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.
:39:01. > :39:07.With just days to go, campaigning has resumed
:39:08. > :39:10.But after the murder of MP Jo Cox, what sort
:39:11. > :39:14.I'll be speaking to the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
:39:15. > :39:17.for Remain And the Tory MSP Graham Simpson for Leave.
:39:18. > :39:20.And could the "shy Remainers" have as much impact in this referendum
:39:21. > :39:31.as the "silent majority" did in 2014?
:39:32. > :39:33.Campaigning ahead of the EU referendum resumed today
:39:34. > :39:37.after being suspended on Thursday, following the murder of Jo Cox.
:39:38. > :39:39.It's an event which has united political rivals to pay tribute
:39:40. > :39:43.to someone they saw as a talented MP and mother with a bright future.
:39:44. > :39:46.Her death has drawn attention to the easy access voters here enjoy
:39:47. > :39:49.to their elected representatives and raised questions
:39:50. > :39:51.about the nature of the referendum campaign itself.
:39:52. > :40:07.This weekend was supposed to be the start of the final push for votes
:40:08. > :40:10.ahead of Thursday's EU referendum. Instead, flags at State buildings in
:40:11. > :40:16.ahead of Thursday's EU referendum. Scotland flew at half-mast after the
:40:17. > :40:22.death of Jo Cox. The 41-year-old mother was killed outside her
:40:23. > :40:27.Birstall surgery constituency. The man Thomas Moore has been charged
:40:28. > :40:29.with her murder. He gave his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for
:40:30. > :40:33.Britain" appearing in court yesterday. Earlier this week the
:40:34. > :40:37.response to the killing of Jo Cox by many MPs including Newborough's Ian
:40:38. > :40:40.Murray was to carry on with their own constituency surgeries as
:40:41. > :40:45.normal, albeit with increased security. I think most MPs are
:40:46. > :40:49.trying to have business as usual because that is what the
:40:50. > :40:54.parliamentary process does and we should be incredibly... We should
:40:55. > :40:57.cherish our democracy and be that they operate in this country, we
:40:58. > :41:01.have an open door policy to any elected member and it is something
:41:02. > :41:08.that other countries do not do. It is a great link between the people
:41:09. > :41:10.who elect us and the people that we are incredibly privileged to try and
:41:11. > :41:13.represent in the best way possible. The death of Jo Cox happens during a
:41:14. > :41:16.referendum campaign which has brought controversial issues like
:41:17. > :41:19.immigration to the forefront brought controversial issues like
:41:20. > :41:26.public debate. That said, this has been viewed by many as first and
:41:27. > :41:31.foremost simply a tragic incident. This obviously does not happen
:41:32. > :41:37.often, but that it happened to a women, a very bright and well
:41:38. > :41:43.motivated caring young women, who is a mother of two young children, when
:41:44. > :41:48.you strip everything else beat you left with that. So how might expect
:41:49. > :41:52.the referendum? I am not sure it will have a great deal of effect.
:41:53. > :41:57.Most of the arguments have been made a few days ahead of the referendum.
:41:58. > :42:01.Both for and against. I think it will probably cause those at the
:42:02. > :42:05.forefront of the campaign to perhaps be a little bit more careful with
:42:06. > :42:15.their words. But I do not hold that the view that this murder had
:42:16. > :42:22.anything to do was directly to do but some of the more unpleasant
:42:23. > :42:26.aspects of the campaign. One thing that we have seen following the
:42:27. > :42:31.death of Jo Cox is political opponents united in grief, pain
:42:32. > :42:35.tribute to someone who is hugely respected beyond party boundaries.
:42:36. > :42:38.That is a thought that will surely stay in their minds as official
:42:39. > :42:44.campaigning ahead of the referendum itself begins once again.
:42:45. > :42:48.In a moment I'll be speaking to the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon,
:42:49. > :42:50.who wants the UK to remain in Europe.
:42:51. > :42:52.But first, shortly before we came on air, I spoke
:42:53. > :42:54.to the Conservative MSP Graham Simpson,
:42:55. > :43:05.I speak as someone whose sister was murdered nearly 21 years ago. She
:43:06. > :43:12.was 30 with two young children. It brought it all back to me. So I know
:43:13. > :43:20.what the family is going through and I think it was right and it felt
:43:21. > :43:26.right to suspend the campaign. I hope in answer to your question that
:43:27. > :43:30.there is a change of pawn. It has been to personal and to better. Not
:43:31. > :43:36.down south. down south.
:43:37. > :43:38.-- tone. I want to reduce something that the former Prime Minister
:43:39. > :43:42.Gordon Brown wrote. He said that the tragedy of the discourse of the
:43:43. > :43:47.referendum to easily descended from a vote over Britain's future in
:43:48. > :43:52.Europe into adult immigrants and those who support immigrants. Unless
:43:53. > :43:55.we strive for a culture of respect, we have too little to challenge
:43:56. > :44:00.prejudice and we will learn nothing from what happened to Jo Cox. Do you
:44:01. > :44:07.accept that the debate on immigration has become a bit
:44:08. > :44:11.overblown? Yes, I do. It is certainly not
:44:12. > :44:15.something I am thinking of but perhaps that is because I am in
:44:16. > :44:20.Scotland. It is not such a big issue here. Parts of England, we can see
:44:21. > :44:24.for ourselves, it is clearly more of an issue there, but some of the
:44:25. > :44:30.rhetoric has been overblown. He is correct on that. The problem is that
:44:31. > :44:33.while it might not be such a big issue here you personally may not
:44:34. > :44:38.have been campaigning particular on this, the reality is that if there
:44:39. > :44:43.is a Brexit vote, one of the main drivers of that will be people's
:44:44. > :44:48.concerns about immigration. One of the results of Brexit would be that
:44:49. > :44:54.you could control who comes in and who does not. That is certainly true
:44:55. > :44:59.and that would be no bad thing. Let us come onto the details of that
:45:00. > :45:03.shortly. But I am curious as to what you think, should your side when, do
:45:04. > :45:09.you think that David Cameron can continue? I would hope so. I do not
:45:10. > :45:13.see why not. He is the Prime Minister who has given us this
:45:14. > :45:21.referendum. He has given the country a choice. So although he favours
:45:22. > :45:25.remaining, he is still a Democrat and he will have to accept them as
:45:26. > :45:32.odd, but it -- which ever way it goes. So if the vote is to leave, he
:45:33. > :45:38.was -- he will have to start negotiations.
:45:39. > :45:41.But he would be going into negotiations with our European
:45:42. > :45:46.partners with no credibility having just lost a referendum. He would
:45:47. > :45:49.have lost by the divas that referendum, he gave us the choice,
:45:50. > :45:54.so presumably, he will accept the result. Even if it does not go the
:45:55. > :45:58.way that he wants, I see no reason why he should stand down. Can you
:45:59. > :46:05.see any reason why supporters of independence for Scotland should
:46:06. > :46:13.vote for Brexit? That is an interesting question. It is a good
:46:14. > :46:19.question. If we look at the SNP, their parliamentarians are not in
:46:20. > :46:23.tune with their voters. It is simply not credible that every single SNP
:46:24. > :46:30.parliamentarian thinks the same way on this issue. If you are a
:46:31. > :46:36.nationalist, which clearly I am not, it seems to me it is the natural
:46:37. > :46:42.thing to want to leave the European Union and many nationalist borders
:46:43. > :46:49.don't. Give me the ten second argument as to if I am a nationalist
:46:50. > :46:51.why I should vote for Brexit. If you are a nationalist, simply, you will
:46:52. > :46:54.have more control over your own are a nationalist, simply, you will
:46:55. > :47:00.country, you want that. If we do vote to leave, they would
:47:01. > :47:05.probably be... There is certainly a clear majority in parliament,
:47:06. > :47:09.possibly the country, to join the economic area in Europe and preserve
:47:10. > :47:15.Britain's access to the single market. In your view, is that a good
:47:16. > :47:21.option? Yes, I do not know if you can think
:47:22. > :47:26.back to 1975, I did not get the vote, you probably did not either,
:47:27. > :47:34.but the vote was... I am much older than you think I am! Continue...
:47:35. > :47:42.OK, good! The vote was to remain in what was the common market. If that
:47:43. > :47:48.was the vote today, I would say yes to that. So if the deal is, we are
:47:49. > :47:51.in a free trade area, that is what I would go for.
:47:52. > :47:53.The problem is if we were to stay in the single market, as you know, they
:47:54. > :48:00.would have to accept free movement of labour, so you are running a
:48:01. > :48:04.Brexit campaign that is largely scum are certainly in England, based upon
:48:05. > :48:07.emigration, and if we join the economic area, matters to do with
:48:08. > :48:15.immigration would be pretty much exactly the same.
:48:16. > :48:21.I think, Gordon, everything is up for grabs. The country votes to
:48:22. > :48:26.leave, there are whole series of negotiations that must take place.
:48:27. > :48:32.Seems to me any Prime Minister, anyone doing the negotiating can
:48:33. > :48:35.almost pick and choose. They cannot, they have to negotiate
:48:36. > :48:42.with the European Union. Norway and the other countries in the EU have
:48:43. > :48:46.to accept free movement of labour. Switzerland, not a member of the...
:48:47. > :48:50.Free movement of labour is one of the powers of the European Union, it
:48:51. > :48:57.could not allow Britain access to the single market and not have free
:48:58. > :49:00.movement of labour unless it was challenging the whole nature of the
:49:01. > :49:04.EU and there is no reason to believe they would do that.
:49:05. > :49:07.So, challenge it. Fine, Britain could do that but there is no reason
:49:08. > :49:12.to believe that the EU would not tell them to get lost.
:49:13. > :49:16.The EU would not turn around to Britain and tell them that they did
:49:17. > :49:19.not want to have a trade deal with us.
:49:20. > :49:21.No, they will have a trade deal, but they will tell you that if you think
:49:22. > :49:24.for one second that destroy the they will tell you that if you think
:49:25. > :49:27.power of the European Union just so they can trade with Britain, you
:49:28. > :49:30.have another thing coming. But Britain would not be in the
:49:31. > :49:34.European Union. But my point is that if you want
:49:35. > :49:36.access to the single market you have to have free movement of labour and
:49:37. > :49:39.you have to have that degree but to have free movement of labour and
:49:40. > :49:46.other European countries, it is not just up to us as Britain.
:49:47. > :49:52.If we do vote to leave, then it is a whole new ball game, frankly.
:49:53. > :49:58.Why do you think every serious international European organisation
:49:59. > :50:00.thinks that not just Brexit is a bad idea but would have seriously
:50:01. > :50:05.damaging consequences for the British economy, the latest being
:50:06. > :50:10.the International Monetary Fund which reduced a report yesterday
:50:11. > :50:13.forecasting a short-term recession. Why is there not a single respected
:50:14. > :50:20.international organisation telling us that Brexit would be good for the
:50:21. > :50:23.British economy? I have listened to the experts, I have listened to
:50:24. > :50:28.these doomsday scenarios and none of them actually tell us how this would
:50:29. > :50:33.come about. Yes, they do. Read the Treasury's report.
:50:34. > :50:40.Unfortunately I have not had time to do that. Try the OECD one of the
:50:41. > :50:43.Economist intelligence unit one or the International Monetary Fund.
:50:44. > :50:48.They all explain precisely why they believe these effects will happen.
:50:49. > :50:52.To me, if we leave, we have great opportunities. We would get the
:50:53. > :50:57.money back that we currently put in, that is disputed...
:50:58. > :51:04.I except that you genuinely believe that, but the trouble is, we are now
:51:05. > :51:08.in a world of faith -based politics, where every major economic
:51:09. > :51:12.organisation is telling you that the effects will be precisely the
:51:13. > :51:16.opposite of what you are telling me and you cannot point to a single
:51:17. > :51:19.organisation that backs your case, why should anyone take what you say
:51:20. > :51:25.seriously? People, when they come to vote, they
:51:26. > :51:30.really need to break it down, they need to look at what it is they are
:51:31. > :51:36.voting for, what this organisation is that they are voting to stay into
:51:37. > :51:42.or leave from. What the deal is. Part of that deal is that we get an
:51:43. > :51:49.awful lot of money to the EU, a political organisation. -- give.
:51:50. > :51:55.That is ?10 billion each year. We would get that back and be able to
:51:56. > :51:59.spend that how we chose to spend it. And do the economy is the fifth
:52:00. > :52:05.largest in the world, I cannot see why we would crash upon leaving a
:52:06. > :52:08.political project. Graham Simpson, we will have to
:52:09. > :52:11.leave it there. Thank you. OK.
:52:12. > :52:16.Joining me now is the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
:52:17. > :52:23.Before we get into the debate about Europe, in light of what happened
:52:24. > :52:27.last week, are you doing or planning to do anything to review the
:52:28. > :52:32.security of members of the Scottish Parliament? The police have been
:52:33. > :52:33.communicating to the Scottish Parliament offer advice and
:52:34. > :52:38.communicating to the Scottish reassurance about the security of
:52:39. > :52:43.members of the Scottish Parliament and I think that is appropriate. The
:52:44. > :52:51.events in the last couple of days have been tragic and sad beyond
:52:52. > :52:56.belief. From what I have read and know about Jo Cox, I think she would
:52:57. > :53:01.agree that we should not respond in a way that closes politicians away
:53:02. > :53:05.from the public. We are public servants. It is important to
:53:06. > :53:11.politicians, the ability to be accessible to constituents. You are
:53:12. > :53:16.not suggesting that members of the Scottish Parliament do anything
:53:17. > :53:22.different? We are human beings and politicians as human beings will
:53:23. > :53:28.feel more vulnerable now than they did it a few days ago and that is to
:53:29. > :53:31.be expected. All politicians will want to think about appropriate
:53:32. > :53:38.precautions and many will want to discuss with the police what those
:53:39. > :53:41.may be, but I have not spoken to any politicians who want to do surgery
:53:42. > :53:48.is with police presence outside or do anything that builds barriers
:53:49. > :53:53.between us, as elected representatives, and the people we
:53:54. > :53:57.were elected to serve. According to a newspaper today the Scottish
:53:58. > :54:00.Government is making contingency plans to maintain Scotland's
:54:01. > :54:08.membership of the European Union if there was a vote to leave. Is that
:54:09. > :54:11.true? I said on Thursday I have asked the Scottish Government
:54:12. > :54:17.officials to look at all eventualities. It would be strange
:54:18. > :54:22.if I was not doing that. There is an idea that Scotland could remain a
:54:23. > :54:28.member of the European Union. I hope every part of the UK votes to stay
:54:29. > :54:33.in the European Union. If Scotland votes to remain there and we face
:54:34. > :54:37.the prospect of being taken out against a will. I've said this
:54:38. > :54:42.before, we need to look at all the options to protect Scotland's
:54:43. > :54:48.interests and to give effect to what the Scottish people vote for. I
:54:49. > :54:50.understand the point about having another independence referendum, but
:54:51. > :54:56.I was wondering if any of the contingency plans may contain other
:54:57. > :55:02.things? If we are in this scenario, and I hope we are not, Scotland's
:55:03. > :55:05.voice should be hard very directly in any discussions about what
:55:06. > :55:12.happens next. If we find ourselves in this scenario, I will come back
:55:13. > :55:19.next Sunday and go into this in as much detail as you want. For the
:55:20. > :55:25.remaining days of the campaign I am entitled to seek to persuade people
:55:26. > :55:31.in Scotland, and across the UK, to vote to stay in the EU. If there is
:55:32. > :55:35.an exit from the European Union there should be a role for the
:55:36. > :55:43.Scottish Government in the negotiations with the European
:55:44. > :55:50.Union? Of course. Much of what would arise with impact directly on
:55:51. > :55:57.devolved responsibilities. If we are in a scenario, and it is an ethnic,
:55:58. > :56:02.if Scotland votes to remain and the rest of the UK votes to leave, our
:56:03. > :56:06.interest me to be protected. I need to look at all options to protect
:56:07. > :56:11.Scotland's interests and to make sure that the democratic will of the
:56:12. > :56:15.people are tired. What if the British Government said it has
:56:16. > :56:20.nothing to do with you? That would be unacceptable. If we are in this
:56:21. > :56:25.situation I'm sure we will be having this discussion next weekend and for
:56:26. > :56:32.some time. I hope we are not in this situation. I hope people in Scotland
:56:33. > :56:40.and across the UK vote to remain for a variety of reasons. We are part of
:56:41. > :56:45.the world's digger single market. -- the world's biggest single market.
:56:46. > :56:51.But there is a more fundamental aspect to this about the kind of
:56:52. > :56:55.world that we want to live in. You know that I want Scotland to be an
:56:56. > :57:02.independent country in the future. We are open and outward looking. The
:57:03. > :57:09.message that your party is sending out on this referendum I find
:57:10. > :57:15.confusing. I expect I am not alone. On one hand you are saying that you
:57:16. > :57:19.want all your supporters to vote to stay in the EU, but on the other
:57:20. > :57:23.hand your holding out the prospect that if Scotland votes to remain and
:57:24. > :57:28.the UK votes to leave there could be another independence referendum. If
:57:29. > :57:31.I am watching this and I was a passionate Yes campaign and the main
:57:32. > :57:37.thing that I want is another European referendum, I would be
:57:38. > :57:42.torn. Should I vote to remain because it is important or should I
:57:43. > :57:45.think that Scotland is going to remain anyway so I will vote to
:57:46. > :57:53.leave because I want the rest of Britain to vote to leave. If you are
:57:54. > :57:57.a passionate Yes campaign, and that means you are very intelligent, you
:57:58. > :58:04.will see the logic a yield what you are saying. You cannot assume that
:58:05. > :58:07.Scotland will vote to remain. If you are basing your decision on how to
:58:08. > :58:14.vote on Thursday on what it means for independence, let me be clear
:58:15. > :58:17.that my vote is not based on that, but if you are the logic of that
:58:18. > :58:22.position is that if Scotland votes to leave along with the rest of the
:58:23. > :58:27.UK the prevalence for a second independence referendum does not
:58:28. > :58:33.arrive. If we vote to leave our immediate future is in the UK and at
:58:34. > :58:39.the mercy of a Government led by Boris Johnson and maybe Nigel
:58:40. > :58:45.Farage. You would like Scotland to vote to remain and you would like
:58:46. > :58:51.the UK to vote to remain. You are twisting my words. I want all of the
:58:52. > :58:57.UK to vote to remain. Let me make this clear, no one watching vessels
:58:58. > :59:04.under any about my view of Scotland being an independent country. I do
:59:05. > :59:06.not want anyone else to think it will come about because of the vote
:59:07. > :59:13.to leave the EU. I want the UK to will come about because of the vote
:59:14. > :59:18.vote to remain. I am just pointing out, and I have no control over
:59:19. > :59:20.this, if the rest of the UK votes to leave in Scotland votes to remain
:59:21. > :59:24.one of the consequences of that would be that we would have the
:59:25. > :59:30.right to look at the second independence referendum. It is
:59:31. > :59:37.predicated on Scotland voting to remain. If Scotland votes to leave
:59:38. > :59:43.this is a moot point. Most people understand that. I am sorry if you
:59:44. > :59:49.think I am twisting your words. One of my colleagues told me that she
:59:50. > :59:52.spent yesterday with two friends who are passionate about independence
:59:53. > :59:56.and they are going to vote to leave for the reasons I outlined. This is
:59:57. > :00:00.a good opportunity for me to speak to these people who may think that
:00:01. > :00:04.is a logical position to take and to tell them that it is not. If
:00:05. > :00:07.is a logical position to take and to Scotland votes to leave then this
:00:08. > :00:14.premise for independence does not arise. If you are basing your
:00:15. > :00:16.decision, and I am not, but if you're basing your decision on what
:00:17. > :00:23.you think is best for Scottish independence then do not vote to
:00:24. > :00:28.leave, but to remain. But even in that scenario, if I was a passionate
:00:29. > :00:29.independence campaigner, you say that if Britain votes to leave the
:00:30. > :00:34.independence campaigner, you say EU we could be run by a right wing
:00:35. > :00:39.Tory Government. Nothing is more likely to increase support for
:00:40. > :00:45.independence in Scotland to the 60% before you have another referendum.
:00:46. > :00:47.If I am an independent reporter, if I go leave there is a chance I can
:00:48. > :00:55.get another chance at independence. get another chance at independence.
:00:56. > :00:58.-- independence supporter. That is not true. We continue to build the
:00:59. > :01:04.case for independence on its own merits. If there is a leave vote
:01:05. > :01:12.across the UK, one of my concerns is that we end up in a direction of
:01:13. > :01:18.political travel towards the right. Boris Johnson Nigel Farage even more
:01:19. > :01:25.right wing than David Cameron. Rather than saying we do not want to
:01:26. > :01:34.be a part of the right dressed, there is no logical case if you are
:01:35. > :01:38.a supporter of independence and have an open and inclusive view of how
:01:39. > :01:45.the world operates today there is no reason to vote to leave. Why is Jim
:01:46. > :01:51.Sillars wrong? He pointed out that the countries in Europe did not do
:01:52. > :01:59.much to help during the independence referendum. I have huge respect for
:02:00. > :02:05.Jim Sillars. The first campaign I took part in was in 1988 and he won
:02:06. > :02:10.then. He was the architect of the SNP's independence in Europe
:02:11. > :02:19.physician. I think he is wrong, though. I am in passionate
:02:20. > :02:25.politician. Countries increasingly have to work together to tackle
:02:26. > :02:28.issues that no country can do by itself and I would want an
:02:29. > :02:35.independent Scotland to stay in the European Union. Jim Sillars says
:02:36. > :02:39.that some of the rhetoric about a right-wing Tory Government are
:02:40. > :02:45.scaremongering. Does he have a point? What you have said about a
:02:46. > :02:52.right-wing Tory Government is one possible scenario. The other is that
:02:53. > :02:56.Labour will come to power. I accept that none of us know for certain
:02:57. > :03:03.what is going to happen in the future, but I think we all make our
:03:04. > :03:07.judgments. I am not the only one saying if there is a vote to leave
:03:08. > :03:12.across the UK there is a likelihood that David Cameron will not survive
:03:13. > :03:15.as Prime Minister and there is a likelihood that someone like Boris
:03:16. > :03:21.Johnson will have to replace him. I do not think that is a huge leap of
:03:22. > :03:24.imagination. I do not want to see Scotland be part of the Government
:03:25. > :03:31.that contains Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Thank you. You invited
:03:32. > :03:33.yourself back next week. I would be delighted to come back.
:03:34. > :03:35.They used to say there were three kinds of lies:
:03:36. > :03:39.But after last year's general election, some say they could have
:03:40. > :03:42.That's because pollsters spectacularly failed to get
:03:43. > :03:44.even close to predicting the actual result.
:03:45. > :03:46.Since then, they claim to have adjusted and tweaked
:03:47. > :03:48.their methodology so that similar errors shouldn't happen again.
:03:49. > :03:50.We won't know whether it's worked until the results
:03:51. > :03:53.are in, but to find out what they are predicting,
:03:54. > :04:01.I'm joined now by MORI Scotland's Mark Diffley.
:04:02. > :04:12.It is a bit unclear. John Curtice was making the point earlier with
:04:13. > :04:19.Andrew Neil that because some of the polls were conducted before the
:04:20. > :04:30.murder of Jo Cox we do not know what, if any, effect that has had.
:04:31. > :04:35.We need to be cautious. There are some brought things to say from the
:04:36. > :04:42.polls at the weekend, those we have seen in the last 24 hours. They tend
:04:43. > :04:48.to show that they remain side across the UK have gained some ground in
:04:49. > :04:57.the last couple of days. But there is a phenomenal here in many
:04:58. > :05:01.referendums, lots of academic evidence, that the status quo option
:05:02. > :05:07.does tend to get a boost in the last couple of days. John Curtice said it
:05:08. > :05:15.could be that affect rather than the tragic events of the last few days
:05:16. > :05:20.that are influencing the polls. Do you think the murder of Jo Cox would
:05:21. > :05:24.have any effect at all? We know two things from the polls over the
:05:25. > :05:33.weekend, although nothing about the effect of that incident on it. We
:05:34. > :05:38.know that in one of the polls over the weekend those who are saying
:05:39. > :05:43.they do not know are more inclined to vote to remain banned to leave,
:05:44. > :05:49.although they have not made their minds up fully. That is what we saw
:05:50. > :05:55.before the new independence referendum. On some of the questions
:05:56. > :05:57.that lie behind the voting intention, particularly to do with
:05:58. > :06:03.that lie behind the voting the economic effects, one of the
:06:04. > :06:08.polls said that people thought they would be worse off if there was a
:06:09. > :06:12.vote to leave. Perhaps there are some signs that the economic
:06:13. > :06:19.arguments that they remain side have been repeating recently are starting
:06:20. > :06:26.to have some effect and that would be consistent not just with the
:06:27. > :06:28.independence referendum but also with other big constitutional
:06:29. > :06:35.referendums we have seen across the world. I wonder if the events of the
:06:36. > :06:41.last few days could affect the way that things go. It is perhaps not
:06:42. > :06:45.unreasonable to suggest that it would be difficult to have a debate
:06:46. > :06:53.about immigration in the next couple of days that was as intemperate as
:06:54. > :06:57.the language we have had before. The more we talk about the economy the
:06:58. > :07:02.better it is for remain and the more we talk about immigration the better
:07:03. > :07:10.for the Leave campaign. In many of the polls, including a road, we saw
:07:11. > :07:17.for the first time that immigration was the top concern in terms of what
:07:18. > :07:26.issues people were thinking about when they came to vote. It is clear
:07:27. > :07:30.that if there is a discussion about immigration that would appear to be
:07:31. > :07:35.beneficial to the Leave campaign. If the argument remains in the economy,
:07:36. > :07:37.that is where the Remain campaign have done better. Thank you for
:07:38. > :07:41.joining us. It's time to look back at the events
:07:42. > :07:45.of the past week and see what's Here with me now are
:07:46. > :07:50.the Sunday Herald's Tom Gordon and the political commentator
:07:51. > :08:06.Hamish Macdonell. In an appropriate at this stage...
:08:07. > :08:10.Adonia still shocked at what happened last week but it is
:08:11. > :08:15.appropriate to start asking, did you think it is going to have any effect
:08:16. > :08:20.on what happens between now and the referendum, Hamish Macdonell? Yes, I
:08:21. > :08:25.think it will. If you look at where we were at the time that Jo Cox was
:08:26. > :08:29.murdered, the Leave campaign definitely had some momentum, they
:08:30. > :08:34.were starting to build up a head of steam, there was panic in the Remain
:08:35. > :08:39.campaign and everything has stopped. Too tedious, has happened. There is
:08:40. > :08:43.the argument that you have from John Curtice and Mark Diffley earlier,
:08:44. > :08:49.that cause of the polling was done before the murder of Jo Cox, it
:08:50. > :08:54.could just be what they expected anyway, which was a reversal of the
:08:55. > :08:56.status quo. In electoral politics like this,
:08:57. > :09:00.momentum is everything, if you can get it and keep it going, it builds
:09:01. > :09:04.and what that breed Casburn is broken the momentum that they Leave
:09:05. > :09:07.campaign had and thrown the Leave campaign had Andrew Hill thing back
:09:08. > :09:11.towards the starting point now. The other one that will suffer more as a
:09:12. > :09:16.result of this and I also think that there is a sense of both sides being
:09:17. > :09:20.on the defensive little and having to pawn down directory and I think
:09:21. > :09:24.the rhetoric that we saw coming out of the Leave campaign up until that
:09:25. > :09:30.point was more extreme and so the game will be on the defensive. --
:09:31. > :09:35.tone. What you make of that, Tom?
:09:36. > :09:37.I think it has rocked the leave side of some of the momentum but it has
:09:38. > :09:40.I think it has rocked the leave side stopped the Remain side putting
:09:41. > :09:45.their foot on the gas and getting the momentum. The polls can
:09:46. > :09:51.boomerang in these type of referendums. There is a shift
:09:52. > :09:55.shortly before the polling day from the status go to the change option
:09:56. > :09:58.and then it tends to revert back to the status quo, we saw that in the
:09:59. > :10:02.independence referendum and I think we are seeing that again. It can
:10:03. > :10:10.also change the temple and the tone of this debate but I do not think it
:10:11. > :10:12.will have a significant effect on the outcome. I think if any Remain
:10:13. > :10:14.of additional strike to the outcome. I think if any Remain
:10:15. > :10:16.Leave voters might feel insulted that they have been linked to this
:10:17. > :10:24.management in Yorkshire and take offence and make damn sure that the
:10:25. > :10:27.vote for Leave. Hamish, George Osborne was on
:10:28. > :10:37.earlier but I did not hear him repeat his threat of the cuts.
:10:38. > :10:40.There is no sign that it will be turned down massively but there will
:10:41. > :10:43.be a different feel to the campaign, I believe. There is a feeling
:10:44. > :10:48.throughout the whole country that things had got just a little bit too
:10:49. > :10:51.heated and there was an awful lot more heat than light coming out. So
:10:52. > :10:56.I think the politicians will have to react to that public mood and just
:10:57. > :11:00.be a little bit more restrained in these last few days.
:11:01. > :11:06.Tom Gordon, you heard what Nicola Sturgeon said, if you were a
:11:07. > :11:09.passionate supporter and keep the inner -- and campaigner for
:11:10. > :11:13.independence for Scotland, we do know what to do?
:11:14. > :11:18.It is not as clear as has been made out. The SNP's case is that Scotland
:11:19. > :11:22.is sufficiently different to the rest of the UK to justify a new
:11:23. > :11:26.political settlement and it depends upon what Nicola Sturgeon wants. She
:11:27. > :11:30.wants a result that would exaggerate and another thing that difference
:11:31. > :11:33.but I think she wants to stay in the EU, she was any LEDs of the
:11:34. > :11:39.evolution and youth spokesperson for the SNP. She once a Remain fought
:11:40. > :11:45.overall but should there be a Brexit fought in the rest of the UK, the
:11:46. > :11:48.best outcome for heart is a thumping great Remain vote in the rest of
:11:49. > :11:51.Scotland because that underlined the difference and the mismatch between
:11:52. > :11:59.Scotland and the rest of the UK. So if you want independence, if both
:12:00. > :12:02.sides were to Vote Leave, the only concrete example they gave for a
:12:03. > :12:10.trigger for an independence referendum would be a big Remain
:12:11. > :12:14.vote for Scotland. If you are a passionate nationalist
:12:15. > :12:20.would you be feeling similar? And Astley Castle we have seen a
:12:21. > :12:25.definite change in tone from the First Minister. Before she had said
:12:26. > :12:28.if there was any Leave thought that would be the trigger for a second
:12:29. > :12:34.independence referendum. Now she has had to appeal directly to SNP voters
:12:35. > :12:35.and said not to Vote Leave. That can only be because it has come to our
:12:36. > :12:40.notice that there are people, even only be because it has come to our
:12:41. > :12:42.have on the fringes of the pro-independence movement are
:12:43. > :12:55.prepared to do that, then she does not want that. There has been a
:12:56. > :12:59.definite change in tone. She has had to address that but Tom is correct,
:13:00. > :13:03.what she wants is a massive Remain vote for Scotland and if there is a
:13:04. > :13:04.Leave vote in the rest of the UK, there is a big difference that could
:13:05. > :13:07.change things. What do you both think that either
:13:08. > :13:10.side has to do to gain victory? It appears to be up in the air.
:13:11. > :13:12.At this point it is about the repetition of message. It will all
:13:13. > :13:20.be about the economy from the Remain side but the Leave sidewalk on down
:13:21. > :13:26.the immigration debate. -- but the Leave will tone the immigration
:13:27. > :13:30.debate. The 10% of the dog was in the middle
:13:31. > :13:34.have a big say in this and the Remain calm have to go on the
:13:35. > :13:37.security of the status quo. If they do that, they will be hoping that as
:13:38. > :13:38.security of the status quo. If they in most referendums in the last two
:13:39. > :13:43.days, people come back in most referendums in the last two
:13:44. > :13:46.option. There will be a fight over that middle ground and that is what
:13:47. > :13:47.Remain will do, I believe. Thank you both very much indeed.
:13:48. > :13:52.I'll be back at the same time next week.