:00:36. > :00:41.Jeremy Corbyn will be challenged for the Labour Party leadership
:00:42. > :00:45.by his former shadow cabinet colleague, Angela Eagle.
:00:46. > :00:47.So what makes her so sure she can win?
:00:48. > :00:54.She's the favoured candidate of Tory MPs, but will Theresa May win over
:00:55. > :00:57.the party's grassroots to become the next Prime Minister?
:00:58. > :01:01.And if she makes it to Number 10, what will her premiership be like?
:01:02. > :01:04.We'll hear from May-supporter, Chris Grayling.
:01:05. > :01:08.And after two tumultuous weeks following the referendum result,
:01:09. > :01:11.a leading Remain campaign insider gives us her candid account
:01:12. > :01:16.Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland, I'll be talking to former
:01:17. > :01:20.Also on the programme, coming to terms with Brexonomics.
:01:21. > :01:39.Golden opportunity or economic meltdown?
:01:40. > :01:44.And with me - Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Isabel Oakeshott to
:01:45. > :01:47.help guide us through the political maelstrom - they'll be tweeting
:01:48. > :01:52.throughout the programme using the hashtag #bbcsp.
:01:53. > :01:55.The battle to take over from David Cameron as Conservative Party
:01:56. > :01:57.leader and Prime Minister has rapidly moved into its final phase
:01:58. > :02:00.- a vote of Conservative Party members who must choose
:02:01. > :02:02.between the Home Secretary and remain supporter Theresa May,
:02:03. > :02:04.and the business minister and Leave campaigner Andrea Leadsom.
:02:05. > :02:06.Speaking at the launch of her campaign, Theresa May said
:02:07. > :02:12.she wanted to unite the Conservative Party - and the country.
:02:13. > :02:15.If ever there was a time for a Prime Minister who is ready
:02:16. > :02:19.and able to do the job from day one, this is it.
:02:20. > :02:23.We have immediate work to do, to restore political stability
:02:24. > :02:28.To bring together the party and the country.
:02:29. > :02:30.And to negotiate a sensible and orderly departure
:02:31. > :02:37.But more than that, we have a mission to make Britain
:02:38. > :02:40.a country that works, not for the privileged and not
:02:41. > :02:47.for the few, but for every one of our citizens.
:02:48. > :02:50.I've been joined by the leader of the commons, Chris Grayling,
:02:51. > :02:52.who was one of four cabinet ministers to campaign to leave
:02:53. > :02:55.the EU but who is now supporting Theresa May -
:02:56. > :03:09.Why are you supporting Mrs May as a Leaver? The key thing is having a
:03:10. > :03:14.person who is right for the job. David Cameron chose to step aside, I
:03:15. > :03:18.regret that. We need someone to step into his shoes in whom I have
:03:19. > :03:22.confidence that they will deliver Brexit. I have known Theresa for a
:03:23. > :03:27.long time. She is a determined politician. Having got a mandate
:03:28. > :03:31.from the public to deliver Brexit, she will do that. What assurances
:03:32. > :03:37.have you sought from her? I have sought assurances that she means
:03:38. > :03:41.Brexit is Brexit. The country has spoken. The country has given us a
:03:42. > :03:45.clear direction to follow. The next Prime Minister has to follow that
:03:46. > :03:50.Matt and I am confident that Theresa May is committed to that. But Brexit
:03:51. > :03:58.can mean one of several things. They're of a. So what do you say to
:03:59. > :04:03.Tory twos, who were on your side, that she will water down the Brexit
:04:04. > :04:08.terms? That is not right. It is not just me, we have a range of Tory
:04:09. > :04:13.Leavers who are backing her, because we think she has the weight and
:04:14. > :04:16.experience to deliver. But I am not sure what assurances you have got
:04:17. > :04:22.that she will deliver as you would want her to. For example, can you
:04:23. > :04:27.guarantee to our viewers that she will not settle for a British
:04:28. > :04:33.version of Norway's relationship with the EU, or Switzerland's
:04:34. > :04:38.relationship? We have said all along that we want a UK solution. It is
:04:39. > :04:43.not about trying to replicate someone else. We have a clear
:04:44. > :04:47.mandate to end the principle of unfettered free movement in the UK
:04:48. > :04:53.from elsewhere in the European Union. We saw Lily 200,000 people
:04:54. > :04:59.arrive in the UK last year. The British public want that to change.
:05:00. > :05:04.Theresa May palmist "Control of free movement. That needn't be the same
:05:05. > :05:08.as the end of free movement. What does she mean? That is what we
:05:09. > :05:13.campaigned on for four and a half months, taking back control. What I
:05:14. > :05:18.find unacceptable is that we cannot control the flow of people into the
:05:19. > :05:21.country. There will be times when we need to recruit particular skills
:05:22. > :05:25.and we need to allow people to move within businesses. We need to have a
:05:26. > :05:29.managed system. It is all about control. It is about our government
:05:30. > :05:34.being able to decide when, how and where the number of people who can
:05:35. > :05:38.come and live and work in the UK. But for some EU citizens, would
:05:39. > :05:45.there still be an automatic right to compare? It will depend on what our
:05:46. > :05:48.rules are. The whole point is that it is about control. At the moment,
:05:49. > :05:52.we cannot set limits on the number of people who live and work here.
:05:53. > :05:58.The clear mandate from the British public, something that Theresa
:05:59. > :06:04.recognised and said so in her opening speech last week we have to
:06:05. > :06:08.take back control of our migration. But we don't know what that means.
:06:09. > :06:12.It means our parliament being able to set limits on the number of
:06:13. > :06:18.people who can live and work here. What sort of limits? That will be
:06:19. > :06:22.decided depending on whether we have skills needs, housing shortages and
:06:23. > :06:25.circumstances. None of us think we will erect barricades at Dover and
:06:26. > :06:32.nobody can ever live and work in the UK. But it is fundamental that
:06:33. > :06:36.ultimate control should reside with our government. Why do you trust has
:06:37. > :06:40.me on free movement when after six years at the Home Office, she
:06:41. > :06:46.couldn't even get non-EU debt migration below 100,000, which was
:06:47. > :06:51.the promise, never mind overall net migration? First of all, we spent
:06:52. > :06:56.five of those six years in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. She was
:06:57. > :06:59.not stopped from doing anything. We have just passed our first
:07:00. > :07:03.conservative only immigration act that will allow us to close the bank
:07:04. > :07:07.accounts and taking away the driving licences of people who overstate.
:07:08. > :07:13.One of the problems is people who come here legitimately for a short
:07:14. > :07:17.time, but never go. But she was so far out. Net migration was three
:07:18. > :07:21.times the target she agreed to six years ago. Why would you trust her
:07:22. > :07:26.to get it right when so far, she's got it wrong? If you look at the
:07:27. > :07:31.flow of migrants from inside the European Union, she had no ability
:07:32. > :07:35.to control that. But she has not controlled those from outside. We
:07:36. > :07:38.have just passed our first Conservative only immigration act.
:07:39. > :07:44.There have been limits to what we could do in coalition. As Theresa
:07:45. > :07:47.May herself said the other day, it is difficult because people are
:07:48. > :07:52.constantly looking for new ways around our system. I believe the
:07:53. > :07:59.acts we past two months ago will make a difference. Were our borders
:08:00. > :08:03.safer under Mrs May than they were in 2010? Our borders are safe in
:08:04. > :08:08.terms of counterterrorism. What has she done to make us safer? A huge
:08:09. > :08:13.amount has been done to protect our borders. In Calais, we now have a
:08:14. > :08:17.much better system of border control. We have been able to resist
:08:18. > :08:20.enormous pressure from people who want to come in illegally. What has
:08:21. > :08:28.she done to make British borders safer? She'd traduced new measures
:08:29. > :08:30.on the immigration front -- introduced new measures. She
:08:31. > :08:35.negotiated international agreements so that Abu Qatada was ported to
:08:36. > :08:42.Jordan. In my view, she has done a huge amount to improve the security
:08:43. > :08:46.services. As Home Secretary, she is responsible for MI5. They have done
:08:47. > :08:52.a fantastic job protecting us. Will she rule out a second referendum?
:08:53. > :08:57.There is no question of a second referendum. One of her supporters,
:08:58. > :09:00.Dominic Grieve, says people can change their minds. We are all clear
:09:01. > :09:04.that there is not going to be a second referendum. We can't just say
:09:05. > :09:08.to the British public, we don't like what you said, so we are going to
:09:09. > :09:14.ask again. Those of us who campaigned for Leave would not serve
:09:15. > :09:22.in a government that chucked away the first result and decided to have
:09:23. > :09:25.another go. Speaking of the campaign, do you regard the promises
:09:26. > :09:34.vote leaves made during the referendum as sacrosanct? I said to
:09:35. > :09:38.you that a campaign group can only make recommendations. But you made a
:09:39. > :09:42.number of promises. You promised explicitly that the status of EU
:09:43. > :09:46.citizens already here would not change. Mrs May is not promising
:09:47. > :09:51.that. I cannot conceive of a situation where we want to end the
:09:52. > :09:57.rights of EU citizens who are here to not remain. There are always
:09:58. > :10:02.individual circumstances... But she is talking about them being a
:10:03. > :10:07.bargaining chip. You said during the campaign, there will be no change
:10:08. > :10:10.for EU citizens already lawfully resident in the UK. Mrs May is not
:10:11. > :10:16.saying that. For those who have been more than five years in the UK, that
:10:17. > :10:19.is legally the case. But we want to make sure we can protect our own
:10:20. > :10:24.citizens in other EU countries. It is right that a UK Government should
:10:25. > :10:28.have its own system. But during the campaign, you never said there will
:10:29. > :10:32.be no change to EU citizens here, provided the EU looks after our
:10:33. > :10:37.citizens over there. That was never a condition. Now are you saying it
:10:38. > :10:41.is? I don't think there will be any change on either side. Everyone will
:10:42. > :10:45.take a grown-up approach might it would be too damaging to do
:10:46. > :10:52.otherwise. But we must look after the interests of our own citizens.
:10:53. > :10:55.So why doesn't she say that? She says she doesn't want to agree
:10:56. > :10:59.anything until she sees how they treat our citizens. Are you
:11:00. > :11:04.comfortable with the line she has taken? The only people who support
:11:05. > :11:09.her on this are the BNP. She has said what I have said. I am
:11:10. > :11:13.expecting all it is except those who have committed criminal offences to
:11:14. > :11:18.be able to stay -- all EU citizens. That is right and proper, but we
:11:19. > :11:25.must make sure we can look after the rights of new cases and is. Has Mrs
:11:26. > :11:31.May guaranteed to you that we will be out of the EU by the next general
:11:32. > :11:35.election? She has said we will trigger article 50 around the end of
:11:36. > :11:39.this year. There is then a two-year time frame and the next general
:11:40. > :11:46.election is 2020. So I can't see any circumstance in which we would not
:11:47. > :11:50.leave by then. Gone by 2020. Chris Grayling, thank you.
:11:51. > :11:52.After a protracted campaign of resignations, a massive vote
:11:53. > :11:55.of no confidence from his MPs, and an attempt by his deputy
:11:56. > :11:57.to negotiate some sort of compromise deal with the unions,
:11:58. > :12:05.it's now clear the Jeremy Corbyn will face a leadership challenge.
:12:06. > :12:11.Some suspected it might fizzle out, but Angela Eagle has finally
:12:12. > :12:16.announced she will go for the top job after all, saying she wants to
:12:17. > :12:23.explain her vision for the country. It comes after Labour's deputy
:12:24. > :12:25.leader Tom Watson called off a debate over Jeremy Corbyn's future,
:12:26. > :12:30.saying there was no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise
:12:31. > :12:33.because of this to Corbyn's refusal to stand down. That provoked an
:12:34. > :12:39.angry response from Unite leader Len McCluskey, who said Tom Watson's
:12:40. > :12:43.actions today can only look like an act of sabotage, fraught with peril
:12:44. > :12:47.for the future of the Labour Party. So what happens now? Angela Eagle
:12:48. > :12:53.needs to get the backing of 20% of MPs and MEPs. The magic and Amber is
:12:54. > :12:57.currently 51. There is also the prospect of another senior Labour
:12:58. > :13:02.figure like Owen Smith throwing his hat into the ring. The big question
:13:03. > :13:05.remains over whether Jeremy Corbyn automatically gets onto the ballot,
:13:06. > :13:10.or whether he needs to get 51 nominations himself, a difficult
:13:11. > :13:16.task, given that the Labour leader lost the vote of no-confidence among
:13:17. > :13:21.his MPs by 172 votes to 40. But if he does get on the ballot paper, it
:13:22. > :13:24.is Angela Eagle who has the difficult job. Over a quarter of a
:13:25. > :13:28.million people voted for Mr Corbyn in the last Labour leadership
:13:29. > :13:32.election. Nearly 60% of the vote. Since the EU referendum, nearly
:13:33. > :13:38.130,000 people have joined the Labour Party. But it is unclear how
:13:39. > :13:41.many of them want to help or hinder Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.
:13:42. > :13:42.Jeremy Corbyn appeared on the Andrew Marr programme
:13:43. > :13:45.a little earlier on BBC One - and was in no mood
:13:46. > :13:49.Why time-limit a leadership when I've been elected
:13:50. > :13:51.by a very large number of members and supporters
:13:52. > :13:59.an election somewhere results in a different leader,
:14:00. > :14:02.But I would be irresponsible if I walked away
:14:03. > :14:05.from a mandate that I was given and a responsibility I was given.
:14:06. > :14:09.I ask colleagues to respect that as well.
:14:10. > :14:22.Why are you challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour leadership? I
:14:23. > :14:27.think it's clear that he has lost the confidence of MPs in the
:14:28. > :14:30.parliamentary party. Tom Watson, Howard deputy leader, who has his
:14:31. > :14:35.own mandate Rosie Winterton, the Chief Whip, John Quire, the chair of
:14:36. > :14:40.the Parliamentary Labour Party and a friend of Jeremy's, have been going
:14:41. > :14:45.to try to say to him that he needs the confidence of the Parliamentary
:14:46. > :14:49.party to continue. He's not listening. You can't leave behind an
:14:50. > :14:52.office door. Maybe he is not listening because he has a huge
:14:53. > :14:57.mandate from the party membership. As Labour leader, he has won every
:14:58. > :15:00.by-election and he has won the London mayoral election, the largest
:15:01. > :15:05.party in the local governor elections. Why wouldn't he carry on?
:15:06. > :15:10.We lost seats in the local government elections when we have a
:15:11. > :15:14.Conservative government. We should be doing better. Polling shows that
:15:15. > :15:19.we are 7% behind the Conservatives, even after all the tumult they have
:15:20. > :15:25.been through and more importantly, we lost the EU referendum.
:15:26. > :15:32.That was not his fault. No, but he wasn't connecting with Labour voters
:15:33. > :15:36.and he did not put the argument across, and so I think we need a
:15:37. > :15:43.strengthened Labour Party and an opposition which can unite so we can
:15:44. > :15:46.heal the country. Unfortunately I don't think Jeremy Corbyn can do
:15:47. > :15:55.that job. Other than Trident, what are the major policy differences?
:15:56. > :16:00.I'm on the left, any party IDs will be anti-austerity, what has happened
:16:01. > :16:05.in our heartlands, they have been hit by six years of Conservative
:16:06. > :16:14.cuts -- any party I lead. That is Jeremy Corbyn, that is his position,
:16:15. > :16:18.as well, what are the differences? I want to be a strong united
:16:19. > :16:21.opposition to get into government. Jeremy was asked in that interview
:16:22. > :16:26.three times whether he thought he could win a general election and he
:16:27. > :16:31.did not say yes. For our supporters and for the people we came into
:16:32. > :16:34.politics to represent, we need a Labour Party that can position
:16:35. > :16:39.itself as a strong united opposition and win a general election. In your
:16:40. > :16:45.view that is having a leader as a winner, but what are the major
:16:46. > :16:50.policy differences? I don't think Jeremy has managed to get across a
:16:51. > :16:54.strategy for winning. I'm on the left and my politics came out of
:16:55. > :17:01.what happened when I was growing up when my parents, they were prevented
:17:02. > :17:08.from fulfilling their opportunities because we had Labour governments I
:17:09. > :17:11.was able to fulfil mind, and I want a Labour Party that can deliver
:17:12. > :17:18.that. Jeremy does not talk about that. We will move on. He is the
:17:19. > :17:20.incumbent leader, should he not be on the ballot against you as a
:17:21. > :17:38.right? The Labour Party rules and the way it is done, and Jeremy
:17:39. > :17:48.Chardy know this, Tony Benn challenged Neil Kinnock in 1988 --
:17:49. > :17:51.Jeremy should know this. It is not clear he had to do this. Neil
:17:52. > :17:56.Kinnock can't remember if he had to do this, or whether he did it to
:17:57. > :18:01.show the strength. Putting aside the roles, most people watching this
:18:02. > :18:05.programme, not just Jeremy Corbyn fans, they will find it strange that
:18:06. > :18:09.the man who won the leadership fairly and decisively, now
:18:10. > :18:14.challenged by you, is not automatically allowed to defend his
:18:15. > :18:16.title? That is not clear from the Labour Party rules, the National
:18:17. > :18:22.executive committee will make a decision on that. Anyone who aspires
:18:23. > :18:27.to lead the Parliamentary party who can't get 51 members, 20% of the
:18:28. > :18:32.Parliamentary party, to back them, they are not going to be able to do
:18:33. > :18:35.the job properly and we are in challenging times, the Brexit vote,
:18:36. > :18:40.a government which has gone missing in action. We need a strong lead
:18:41. > :18:43.from the Labour Party if we are going to protect our communities who
:18:44. > :18:49.are going to be the hardest hit. Nothing of that lead is coming from
:18:50. > :18:54.Jeremy at the moment. You are the self-styled party of fairness, don't
:18:55. > :18:59.you think it will offend against natural justice against most
:19:00. > :19:03.people's idea of fairness if the incumbent who is challenged by you
:19:04. > :19:09.is not allowed to fight you in an election? Work that seem incredible?
:19:10. > :19:15.Forget the rules, just offends against fairness. I don't know what
:19:16. > :19:21.the outcome is going to be of the decision-making process. I'm ready
:19:22. > :19:26.to fight a leadership challenge and have debates about the future of our
:19:27. > :19:30.party with anyone, Jeremy or anyone else who seeks to stand. Len
:19:31. > :19:36.McCluskey, the most important person in the Labour Party, perhaps. Not
:19:37. > :19:41.say that. I have a lot of respect him, but that is a big perhaps. He
:19:42. > :19:48.says keeping Jeremy Corbyn of the ballot would cause lasting division
:19:49. > :19:53.in the party. It would. This is not about the Labour Party being split,
:19:54. > :19:58.this is about it being an effective and united opposition to make our
:19:59. > :20:00.democracy work so we can challenge is Conservative government which has
:20:01. > :20:06.done such damage with the Brexit vote. I want to say that if you
:20:07. > :20:12.think we should have a strong and effective Labour Party and a strong
:20:13. > :20:16.democracy, challenging the Conservatives, join the Labour Party
:20:17. > :20:21.now. Do it today, you can do it online. 130,000 new members have
:20:22. > :20:28.joined Labour since the referendum. Who are they? The Labour Party
:20:29. > :20:34.nationally knows who they are. Have they been vetted? I have no idea at
:20:35. > :20:40.what the Labour Party office are doing about the new members. But it
:20:41. > :20:45.is important that people who think that we need a strong opposition,
:20:46. > :20:52.jaundiced battle now, joined the Labour Party, make us stronger --
:20:53. > :20:57.join this battle now. The 130,000 people who have joined already, they
:20:58. > :20:59.should be allowed to vote? That is a matter for the National if sect of
:21:00. > :21:05.committee to decide, they were in the past. -- National executive
:21:06. > :21:11.committee. There is no point in them joining if they can't. We opened up
:21:12. > :21:19.the ?3 membership which was a feature the last campaign. 150,000
:21:20. > :21:22.people are going to be picking the next Conservative Prime Minister, we
:21:23. > :21:28.have had nearly that number joining in the last week. Jeremy Corbyn
:21:29. > :21:33.would say he won by over 235,000 voting for him. You expect to be the
:21:34. > :21:40.only challenger? I have no idea. What about Owen Smith? We have
:21:41. > :21:43.spoken, but not recently, I've got no idea, I'm concentrating on
:21:44. > :21:48.launching my campaign which I will be doing tomorrow. It would be
:21:49. > :21:53.absurd for you and Owen Smith or someone else from the middle of the
:21:54. > :22:00.party, the moderate left, to split the anti-Corbyn vote? We have got to
:22:01. > :22:06.get on with doing our planning and see what happens in the future. I'm
:22:07. > :22:10.concentrating on getting my campaign up and running, launching it
:22:11. > :22:15.tomorrow, and joining a battle to have a stronger and united Labour
:22:16. > :22:22.Party which can give hope back to our country. You voted for the Iraq
:22:23. > :22:26.war. Do you regret that? I do, and if I had known what I know now, I
:22:27. > :22:30.would not have supported it. The important thing from the Chilcot
:22:31. > :22:36.Report is that we learn the lessons of that so those mistakes can never
:22:37. > :22:39.be made again in the future. John Prescott this morning, he also voted
:22:40. > :22:46.for it, he says he now regards the war as illegal. Chilcot has not said
:22:47. > :22:52.that. I'm asking you. It is important that we learn the lessons.
:22:53. > :22:55.Do you think it was illegal? The evidence at the time and the
:22:56. > :22:58.Attorney General's opinion at the time was not to that effect and it
:22:59. > :23:03.is no good trying to second-guess what happened subsequently. We need
:23:04. > :23:07.to learn the lessons and we need to make sure that if anything like that
:23:08. > :23:12.happens in the future we have more robust ways of testing these
:23:13. > :23:17.assertions, but I also think we have a country divided at the moment. You
:23:18. > :23:22.have said that. Very uncertain about the future. You have said that. We
:23:23. > :23:28.have got to address those problems. I understand that. But forgive me,
:23:29. > :23:32.we have not got much time, they will be a motion before Parliament next
:23:33. > :23:36.week holding Tony Blair for contempt of Parliament because of Iraq, how
:23:37. > :23:41.will you vote? I have not seen the motion yet. We have got to make
:23:42. > :23:46.certain that we don't spend our time in Parliament exacting revenge and I
:23:47. > :23:51.think Tony Blair has been put rightly through the mill about the
:23:52. > :23:56.decisions he took, the Chilcot Report did that, and I think we
:23:57. > :23:59.should... We would be far better at learning the lessons and making
:24:00. > :24:05.certain that we don't fall into the same mistakes if God forbid they
:24:06. > :24:11.should be a future occasion where these decisions are made. -- there.
:24:12. > :24:14.Final question, you talk about uniting Labour and the country,
:24:15. > :24:20.taking on the Tories, but if you lose and Jeremy Corbyn wins or the
:24:21. > :24:23.reverse, isn't there a clear indication that your party could be
:24:24. > :24:30.heading for a serious schism? Either way. We need to heal the party under
:24:31. > :24:33.effective leadership, so we can have a chance of winning the general
:24:34. > :24:39.election which might come much sooner than we all think. And that
:24:40. > :24:47.is my main aim with launching this leadership campaign. If he wins, you
:24:48. > :24:50.will accept the result? You have to accept the result of any... You
:24:51. > :24:55.would go back into the Shadow Cabinet? You have to accept the
:24:56. > :24:59.result of any democratic process but I'm focused on winning this and I'm
:25:00. > :25:02.not going to speculate about what happens afterwards. Angela Eagle,
:25:03. > :25:07.busy summer head, thank you. It's clear the battle inside Labour
:25:08. > :25:10.is about to get nasty - in the last hour, the MP
:25:11. > :25:13.who initiated the vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn,
:25:14. > :25:15.Margaret Hodge, had this to say I'm beginning to think he's
:25:16. > :25:20.actually a devious man, who is more concerned
:25:21. > :25:23.with destroying the Labour Party than he is with creating a force
:25:24. > :25:26.that can win an election in such difficult times and which
:25:27. > :25:40.will unite the party. There we are. We have heard from
:25:41. > :25:48.Chris Grayling and Angela Eagle and Jeremy Corbyn this morning. Helen,
:25:49. > :25:54.whatever the outcome, it looks like this ends badly for Labour. It is
:25:55. > :25:57.very interesting. In the new statesman we did an issue about
:25:58. > :26:04.whether Labour should split, and we said, no, but are now talking to
:26:05. > :26:09.Labour MPs who are openly talking about this, people who are tribally
:26:10. > :26:14.Labour and are not metropolitan, they are saying this cannot be sewn
:26:15. > :26:18.back together. The big question, if Jeremy Corbyn gets on the ballot and
:26:19. > :26:22.gets 50 MPs, I think he will win, but if he doesn't get on, that
:26:23. > :26:27.becomes a case of his faction splitting off, so the battle is...
:26:28. > :26:31.Everyone is imagining a split, but it is who gets left with custody of
:26:32. > :26:37.the party. Control of the Labour brand, which is powerful. The union
:26:38. > :26:42.funding is on a downward slope, already, the trade union is going to
:26:43. > :26:46.reduce that further, Labour have had very little success with big donors
:26:47. > :26:52.under Jeremy Corbyn. There is a fundamental force at work. The
:26:53. > :26:54.party's grassroots once a different Labour Parliamentary party and the
:26:55. > :26:59.Parliamentary Labour Party would like a different grassroots. One or
:27:00. > :27:05.the other has to go its own way. You can't reconcile them. The texture of
:27:06. > :27:08.the grassroots has changed in the past year, since the party was
:27:09. > :27:13.opened up by Ed Miliband to new members. It might be changing in the
:27:14. > :27:19.other direction even as we speak 130,000 new members since June, the
:27:20. > :27:22.equivalent of the size of the Tory party, it is possible the bulk of
:27:23. > :27:26.those people are people that might be, since the referendum campaign,
:27:27. > :27:32.might want a party that is moderate. We don't know that. Angela Eagle is
:27:33. > :27:37.taking a punt on the idea that those are relatively centrist voters, but
:27:38. > :27:41.what I'd take from her and Owen Smith, is not a massive amount of
:27:42. > :27:46.enthusiasm for running for this big ship, they don't radiate glee at the
:27:47. > :27:49.prospect of becoming leader, so I wonder if the idea is to have an
:27:50. > :27:53.interim leader who is moderate and then before 2020 and onto someone
:27:54. > :28:01.who they think can win a general election. It is a big part on her
:28:02. > :28:07.part. She sounded so miserable. -- punt. She sounded very depressed
:28:08. > :28:11.about the idea of launching aided ship contest and that is because
:28:12. > :28:16.there is no resolution to this. -- launching a leadership contest. If
:28:17. > :28:22.she wins it is a pyrrhic victory, but if she loses, it won't be
:28:23. > :28:26.resolved, and it feels like it will not be resolved until the next
:28:27. > :28:29.general election, when the public and determine what kind of Labour
:28:30. > :28:35.MPs they both like to fight for that election. It could be a bloodbath.
:28:36. > :28:40.Last year it was quite lively, and this year, there might be a lot of
:28:41. > :28:45.screaming at the Labour Party conference. It would be worth the
:28:46. > :28:53.price of admission to both party conferences this autumn.
:28:54. > :28:56.The referendum result came as a shock to many, not least those
:28:57. > :28:59.Lucy Thomas was deputy director of Britain Stronger In.
:29:00. > :29:02.In an exclusive for the Sunday Politics, she talks to fellow
:29:03. > :29:04.campaign insiders about how the referendum was lost.
:29:05. > :29:06.We are absolutely clear now that there is no way
:29:07. > :29:11.Right up until the end, we thought Remain could win.
:29:12. > :29:17.I'm Lucy Thomas, and I was deputy director of that campaign,
:29:18. > :29:19.and one of those that was there from the beginning.
:29:20. > :29:21.This is the story of what we did and why,
:29:22. > :29:24.but why, in the end, it wasn't enough.
:29:25. > :29:27.So let's go back to where it started.
:29:28. > :29:30.We launched Britain Stronger In Europe on a cold October morning
:29:31. > :29:39.Cue the usual jokes about our organisation.
:29:40. > :29:44.We set out to persuade people that Britain was stronger,
:29:45. > :29:47.safer and better off in Europe than we would be out on our own,
:29:48. > :29:49.and that leaving was a leap in the dark, a risk
:29:50. > :29:55.As a nation of Eurosceptics, we always knew it would be tough,
:29:56. > :29:59.but I'm not sure we were prepared for what the early research showed.
:30:00. > :30:01.When we presented that and we discussed it
:30:02. > :30:03.with you and the team, I think everybody sort
:30:04. > :30:08.God, this is going to be harder than we thought.
:30:09. > :30:11.So we built a campaign based on numbers.
:30:12. > :30:13.It's the economy, stupid, and it had been proven to work
:30:14. > :30:17.in the Scottish referendum and the general election.
:30:18. > :30:26.One of the reasons why some of the specific warnings
:30:27. > :30:28.would have bounced off people was because it sounded
:30:29. > :30:30.like scaremongering, because it wasn't evidence.
:30:31. > :30:33.It was just saying, if we vote to leave,
:30:34. > :30:35.it will cost this many jobs or this much growth
:30:36. > :30:42.And people said they were crying out to hear from the experts.
:30:43. > :30:46.to economists, scientists to defence chiefs, they all spoke
:30:47. > :30:51.for themselves, and the weight of expert opinion was overwhelming.
:30:52. > :30:56.if the UK was to leave the European Union.
:30:57. > :31:00.Material slowdown in growth, notable increase in inflation.
:31:01. > :31:05.In a sense, we were the victims of our own success in the early
:31:06. > :31:07.part of the campaign, because we landed our economic
:31:08. > :31:15.We pushed the Leave campaign from Norway to Canada to Albania,
:31:16. > :31:18.and then finally pushed them entirely off the single market.
:31:19. > :31:21.Of course, what it meant was that that was the moment
:31:22. > :31:24.Nigel Farage's approach to this referendum, and to make it
:31:25. > :31:31.Imagine what will happen to public services...
:31:32. > :31:34.When I first saw their PPB, the one with all the arrows
:31:35. > :31:38.implying that millions of people from all sorts of countries
:31:39. > :31:41.including Turkey and possibly other countries that aren't in the EU
:31:42. > :31:44.are going to come and move to Britain, and I showed
:31:45. > :31:47.that to focus groups, it was very powerful,
:31:48. > :31:51.because it captured the anxiety and fear and emotion
:31:52. > :31:54.people have at the prospect of being overwhelmed
:31:55. > :31:58.and these are all terms I would hear in the focus groups.
:31:59. > :32:05.and the literature that was used off the back of it was very powerful.
:32:06. > :32:10.I also knew, of course, that it was purposefully choosing
:32:11. > :32:15.So we always knew that immigration was a problem,
:32:16. > :32:26.around this table, that lots of the discussions were heard.
:32:27. > :32:28.Some wondered, was there more we could do to get EU leaders
:32:29. > :32:30.to show more flexibility on free movement, maybe?
:32:31. > :32:33.But to others, that meant fighting the rest of the campaign
:32:34. > :32:37.on immigration, when we needed for it to be back on the economy.
:32:38. > :32:40.If you could solve the problem of free movement, it would have been
:32:41. > :32:45.If you can't solve the problem of immigration, moving
:32:46. > :32:48.on to immigration might make things worse, not better.
:32:49. > :32:55.But given what we did know, it made sense to stick to the economy.
:32:56. > :32:57.But it became clear that for some people,
:32:58. > :32:59.that economic risk didn't mean anything.
:33:00. > :33:04.I spoke to one man in my constituency who was out one day,
:33:05. > :33:08.He was voting to leave because of all those concerns
:33:09. > :33:16."I understand your concerns about that.
:33:17. > :33:18.What do you think about the argument that leaving would be
:33:19. > :33:22.he said, "What do I care about the economy?
:33:23. > :33:28.There are lots of people in Britain who do feel passed over,
:33:29. > :33:32.They don't see what the future could hold for them or their children,
:33:33. > :33:39.This referendum was a chance to attach that anger to the EU.
:33:40. > :33:46.Shouldn't Labour have been able to reach out to those voters?
:33:47. > :33:50.The brutal truth is that the leader of the Labour Party did not
:33:51. > :33:54.campaign with authenticity, passion, conviction
:33:55. > :34:02.He said he was for Remain, but it was on quite a narrow basis,
:34:03. > :34:09.in terms of what the broader argument could be.
:34:10. > :34:14.Polling took place during the campaign that showed half
:34:15. > :34:20.that our official position was for Remain.
:34:21. > :34:23.So I think more could have been done, yes.
:34:24. > :34:26.And whether it was true or not, the Leave campaign was determined
:34:27. > :34:33.The power of the 350 million a week can't be overstated.
:34:34. > :34:36.In focus groups, it is quite unusual for floating voters who aren't
:34:37. > :34:40.interested in politics to have internalised a campaign fact
:34:41. > :34:44.or number so that it comes out spontaneously, and it did.
:34:45. > :34:48.When we would say, have you noticed that some people are saying that
:34:49. > :34:51.isn't actually true, people would say, "Vaguely,
:34:52. > :34:55.but it's still a very big number, isn't it?"
:34:56. > :35:02.In the final debate, just days before the vote,
:35:03. > :35:04.the Leave campaign came armed with their catch-all phrase
:35:05. > :35:08.Taking back control of our country and our system.
:35:09. > :35:14.We can take back control over our laws.
:35:15. > :35:17.We can take back control over our taxes.
:35:18. > :35:19.We can take back control over our borders,
:35:20. > :35:29.They were being presented with a simple solution, which was,
:35:30. > :35:32.if you think this is a problem and migration is putting pressures
:35:33. > :35:34.on our public services and jobs, we can take back control.
:35:35. > :35:38.The way I would put it was that we had a complex truth
:35:39. > :35:44.up against a simple lie, and we see what happened.
:35:45. > :35:47.And what happened will be talked about for decades.
:35:48. > :35:50.Though we built the biggest ever cross-party, cross-sector campaign
:35:51. > :35:55.with over 40,000 volunteers, we didn't win the day.
:35:56. > :35:58.This was a campaign where experts were dismissed
:35:59. > :36:00.and conventional wisdom thrown out of the window.
:36:01. > :36:10.Many doubt if campaigns will ever be the same again.
:36:11. > :36:15.And Matthew Elliott from Vote Leave will be looking at how their
:36:16. > :36:20.campaign won the referendum on the Daily Politics. Isabel, having
:36:21. > :36:25.looked at that and seen what they are now saying, I now find myself
:36:26. > :36:29.surprised that Remain lost by only four percentage points. Right. The
:36:30. > :36:32.bottom line is that their big argument on the economy, they went
:36:33. > :36:36.grossly over the top at the beginning. They tried to create what
:36:37. > :36:41.pollsters call a settled view, which then becomes difficult to dislodge.
:36:42. > :36:45.But in doing so, they went so far over the top that their claims
:36:46. > :36:49.became unbelievable, and simply adding more experts to its got no
:36:50. > :36:54.response from the electorate. Secondly, and more importantly, they
:36:55. > :36:59.had no answer on the immigration question. I think the majority of
:37:00. > :37:03.people who voted Leave, whether or not they would admit it, well, in
:37:04. > :37:08.their heart of hearts, voting so because of immigration, and Remain
:37:09. > :37:11.had no answer on that. You didn't have to be a rocket scientist or
:37:12. > :37:16.even a psephologists work-out that immigration was going to be the big
:37:17. > :37:19.issue. We have spoken about it on this programme months before the
:37:20. > :37:26.campaign began, and yet even by the end of the campaign, they still had
:37:27. > :37:30.no answer to the immigration issue. That is the legacy of years of
:37:31. > :37:33.British politics, when no one will make a positive case for
:37:34. > :37:36.immigration, or a case for the trade-off, where you say we accept
:37:37. > :37:39.immigration, or a case for the immigration because of the economic
:37:40. > :37:42.benefits. The economic argument failed because people didn't feel
:37:43. > :37:45.that all these years of prosperity in the City of London had any
:37:46. > :37:49.translation to the real economy. So when we said it would be terrible
:37:50. > :37:54.for the City of London, people thought, what has that got to do
:37:55. > :37:58.with me? Was there anything Remain could have done to have won? I think
:37:59. > :38:01.a different renegotiation in January could have done to have won? I think
:38:02. > :38:08.or February by the Prime Minister Cold War which secured some tangible
:38:09. > :38:12.concession on -- by the Prime Minister, some negotiation which
:38:13. > :38:17.achieved a concession on immigration would have done it. People didn't
:38:18. > :38:21.feel they were getting that, and therefore, it was very interesting.
:38:22. > :38:25.It wasn't the internal dynamics of the campaign that was at fault. The
:38:26. > :38:29.reason they didn't have a answer was because Cameron didn't come back
:38:30. > :38:34.with something solid. So it was Angela Merkel what lost it? Yes, and
:38:35. > :38:36.I am sure she is now bitterly regretting not giving Cameron
:38:37. > :38:42.something. The other thing is that I know that when the Britain Stronger
:38:43. > :38:45.In Europe campaign had their early meetings before the campaign
:38:46. > :38:48.officially began, they had a discussion about identifying five
:38:49. > :38:51.positive things about being in the EU that we can sell to voters, and
:38:52. > :38:56.they couldn't come up with any. That was again part of the problem. They
:38:57. > :39:01.failed to put a positive case, it was just Project Fear. It was also
:39:02. > :39:05.David Cameron what lost it, because for years, to get selected in the
:39:06. > :39:09.Tory party, you had to be Eurosceptic. He then had a career
:39:10. > :39:14.saying it would not be a problem if we leave, and then pivoted to say
:39:15. > :39:18.the sky would fall in. A lot of voters concluded, that is typical of
:39:19. > :39:20.the political elite. Making it up as you go along.
:39:21. > :39:22.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:23. > :39:29.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:30. > :39:31.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.
:39:32. > :39:33.Coming up in the programme, after another packed week
:39:34. > :39:37.in politics, we'll be trying to make sense of the latest political
:39:38. > :39:43.Chilcot finally delivered his damning report, leading some critics
:39:44. > :39:47.to call for Tony Blair's legal action.
:39:48. > :39:50.I'll be speaking to one of them shortly.
:39:51. > :39:53.Also, after criticising the SNP's economic plans
:39:54. > :39:55.during the referendum, a former permanent secretary
:39:56. > :39:58.to the Treasury now says the case for Scottish Independence
:39:59. > :40:06.And, after two of the three people running the inquiry
:40:07. > :40:08.into child abuse quit, citing Government interference,
:40:09. > :40:18.how can the education secretary John Swinney restore confidence?
:40:19. > :40:20.Anyone expecting an establishment whitewash was in for a surprise
:40:21. > :40:22.when Sir John Chilcot finally delivered his 2.6
:40:23. > :40:27.Flawed intelligence combined with a legal case for going to war
:40:28. > :40:30.with Iraq that was far from satisfactory and little or no
:40:31. > :40:32.plan for what happened after the invasion.
:40:33. > :40:36.Despite all this, in a marathon and at times emotional press
:40:37. > :40:38.conference, Tony Blair expressed regret but insisted that he'd made
:40:39. > :40:43.With me now is the former Labour MP Tom Harris who himself voted
:40:44. > :41:00.And? I've think if these same circumstances presented themselves.
:41:01. > :41:05.Everywhere presented with the same intelligence we were in 2003 I would
:41:06. > :41:12.have voted in exactly the same way. If you knew then what you know now?
:41:13. > :41:16.If we knew then the intelligence was flawed there would never have been a
:41:17. > :41:22.vote. We would not have asked to go to war if we knew it did not exist.
:41:23. > :41:29.There is the issue of whether governments was undermined in the UK
:41:30. > :41:32.with what happened in Iraq. Would you accept the Chilcot report
:41:33. > :41:38.findings that Cabinet governance was undermined and that, Chilcott does
:41:39. > :41:46.not quite say this, but Tony Blair was out of control. I think what
:41:47. > :41:50.Chilcott and some of the commentators miss is that Tony Blair
:41:51. > :41:53.was in the position that he was Prime Minister and had to make
:41:54. > :41:54.was in the position that he was decisions. Sometimes politicians
:41:55. > :42:02.have to make decisions that are neither easy or popular. Tony Blair
:42:03. > :42:08.rose to that occasion. He built his reputation on the line. He did not
:42:09. > :42:13.keep his cabinet on board? That is not true, there were only two
:42:14. > :42:18.resignations. I mean he did not inform them at all times what she
:42:19. > :42:19.was doing. If used it to any of the Cabinet at the time they will not
:42:20. > :42:25.tell you they felt excluded. It Cabinet at the time they will not
:42:26. > :42:30.a remarkably unified cabinet at the time that that decision and took us
:42:31. > :42:35.into war. The other side is what happened in Iraq. On balance a good
:42:36. > :42:40.thing on a bad thing? Obviously getting rid of Saddam was a good
:42:41. > :42:44.thing. Anyone who needs fascism will celebrate we got rid of him but the
:42:45. > :42:50.aftermath has been truly appalling. Written has today it's clear share
:42:51. > :42:54.of responsibility on that but America has today the larger sheet
:42:55. > :42:58.of responsibility. What happened in the aftermath of Iraq was very
:42:59. > :43:02.similar to what happened in the aftermath of the Afghanistan war
:43:03. > :43:06.back when the Soviets left. When the Americans supported resistance
:43:07. > :43:11.against the Soviets but when the Soviets left so did the Americans
:43:12. > :43:14.and America has the look to its long-term interests and the like
:43:15. > :43:18.that it is going to make interventions then I hope that
:43:19. > :43:22.intervention is still a part of western democracy agenda, they have
:43:23. > :43:29.got to see through the commitments which they did not do in Afghanistan
:43:30. > :43:38.or Iraq. You were leading the Brexit campaign in Scotland. You got 30%.
:43:39. > :43:45.Were you expecting more on less? I was hoping for 40% but I was happy
:43:46. > :43:51.with 38. None of the opinions polls showed we got anywhere near that.
:43:52. > :43:54.The First Minister says there is a case for a second independence
:43:55. > :44:00.referendum given the results, would you accept that? Firstly I don't.
:44:01. > :44:06.When the 2014 referendum happened the Scottish Government White Paper
:44:07. > :44:12.made the explicit threat or promise that if you vote now you could end
:44:13. > :44:16.up being taken out of the EU against our will. Scott is understood that
:44:17. > :44:21.threat and understood what it meant and they still voted no. I do not
:44:22. > :44:24.think what we have got is any kind of change of circumstance at all. If
:44:25. > :44:26.think what we have got is any kind there is another independence
:44:27. > :44:32.referendum it will be specifically those by the Scottish National party
:44:33. > :44:38.and the Scottish Government as the result of the referendum. Even the
:44:39. > :44:43.SMP who claim it is a point of runcible are not claiming it a point
:44:44. > :44:51.of sensible. They claim it depends on how the balls are looking. --
:44:52. > :44:57.SNP. You must accept some responsibility given the role you
:44:58. > :44:59.played in the referendum. I am all for politicians taking
:45:00. > :45:03.responsibility but I still think independence would be a very bad
:45:04. > :45:07.idea. Even more so once the UK is out of the EU. Thank you for joining
:45:08. > :45:09.us. Joining me now from
:45:10. > :45:18.Inverness is the former We have heard from yourself and
:45:19. > :45:23.David Davies this morning this idea of tabling a motion about Tony Blair
:45:24. > :45:27.in the houses of parliament. The consequences of that is that he
:45:28. > :45:31.could in theory be called to the bar of the House but would not
:45:32. > :45:36.necessarily have to turn up, is that right? He could be summoned before
:45:37. > :45:42.the buyer of the House. That would be likely. He could refuse to come
:45:43. > :45:44.but people have refused to come before House of Commons select
:45:45. > :45:49.committees and that has turned out very badly for them. Refusing to go
:45:50. > :45:56.before the ban of the House would be even worse. The sort of penalties
:45:57. > :46:01.could be being banned from public office ever again. It is not an
:46:02. > :46:07.incarceration as many people would like but it is a strong form of
:46:08. > :46:12.Parliamentary accountability. Just from what you have said their many
:46:13. > :46:18.people would think OK, fine, but this is all largely symbolic.
:46:19. > :46:24.Symbolism can be important in terms of parliament's role. This does not
:46:25. > :46:28.be judge legal action from the authorities or several from the
:46:29. > :46:33.service families. This is all about what Parliament doesn't fit leaves
:46:34. > :46:38.that was misled over a huge issue or systematically misled over a
:46:39. > :46:43.lead-off kind. We have had the inquiry, the trial if you like, know
:46:44. > :46:47.what we are doing is moving to the verdict. Any parliament worth its
:46:48. > :46:51.salt would accept responsibility to make that judgment. Do you see any
:46:52. > :46:57.other avenues or are you involved in any other avenues of legal action
:46:58. > :47:02.against Tony Blair? I support legal action. I think it is a primer fussy
:47:03. > :47:04.case that this is a crime of aggression. The difficulty is the
:47:05. > :47:10.criminal international court is about to get Robin and saw the
:47:11. > :47:14.crimes of aggression but has not got it yet. The domestic courts in
:47:15. > :47:17.England and Wales have been unwilling to take international
:47:18. > :47:23.crimes like kinds of aggression into domestic law. That makes the
:47:24. > :47:24.criminal proceedings very difficult. Perhaps not possible but very
:47:25. > :47:30.criminal proceedings very difficult. difficult. A civil action has been
:47:31. > :47:33.considered by the service families. That would have to come from those
:47:34. > :47:38.who were directly affected, had the loss of a loved one for example. I
:47:39. > :47:44.support all of these initiatives as they can be made at the not under my
:47:45. > :47:51.control or influence. What is under my influences as a member of
:47:52. > :47:52.Parliament I have a right to bring a motion to enforce Parliamentary
:47:53. > :47:57.Parliament I have a right to bring a accountability and that is what I
:47:58. > :48:00.intend to do. You had previously suggested the Scottish Parliament
:48:01. > :48:06.could prosecute Tony Blair. Do you accept that as matters stand that
:48:07. > :48:10.will not be possible? What I suggested, I saw the report in the
:48:11. > :48:14.Herald, at least the daily Herald does not always bother to consult
:48:15. > :48:18.the person they are writing about. What I pointed out was the English
:48:19. > :48:22.and Welsh High Court decided without a specific entry instrument they
:48:23. > :48:27.Wilmot not hear an international crying like a crime of aggression.
:48:28. > :48:31.The Scottish courts have made no such ruling. It may be the Court of
:48:32. > :48:35.Session would come to the same conclusion. There is a possibility
:48:36. > :48:40.in Scotland but I am not a member of the Scottish Parliament, I am a
:48:41. > :48:41.member of the Westminster Parliament. It parliament can
:48:42. > :48:47.enforce accountability and it should. We also have the support of
:48:48. > :48:53.members of Parliament across six political parties which makes it a
:48:54. > :48:56.cross-party move, not a party political move. A movement of
:48:57. > :48:59.cross-party accountability certainly has a very good chance of being
:49:00. > :49:05.recalled in the House of Commons over the next few weeks and I hope
:49:06. > :49:08.it has a chance of being passed. Jim Sillars has suggested the Scottish
:49:09. > :49:13.Parliament could bring in a law which would allow Mr Blair to be
:49:14. > :49:23.prosecuted. Does that seem to you to be a runner? There is a precedent.
:49:24. > :49:28.The Westminster Parliament brought in a specific instrument to allow
:49:29. > :49:31.prosecution of people for Nathalie offences concerning the Holocaust
:49:32. > :49:41.and other matters some years ago. There is a precedent for doing that.
:49:42. > :49:46.Nazi -- offences. It is a matter for the Scottish Parliament. It is not
:49:47. > :49:52.clear if the Scottish courts would be amenable to that. What is clear
:49:53. > :49:55.is the opportunity to enforce Parliamentary accountability. We
:49:56. > :50:00.have had the trial if you like it is now time to pass the verdict. What
:50:01. > :50:06.do you think Mr Blair himself should do in light of the inquiry? I think
:50:07. > :50:11.if he spoke at last Wednesday he should have made a full and frank
:50:12. > :50:16.apology. I thought, looking as I did at the keep the other day, his
:50:17. > :50:20.performance was delusional. He clearly has not come to terms with
:50:21. > :50:25.the extent of the indictment that has been laid out in such detail by
:50:26. > :50:30.John Chilcot. What we have the forerunners and the key thing is
:50:31. > :50:34.revealed in the Chilcot report are the secret memos, Private memos
:50:35. > :50:39.being sent to the American President George W Bush. All you have to do to
:50:40. > :50:42.establish the case of misleading Parliament over the course of a year
:50:43. > :50:47.is to juxtapose the private memos against the public statements to
:50:48. > :50:51.Parliament and people. They then lies the heart of the case for
:50:52. > :50:54.Parliament and people. They then contempt of Parliament. I noted that
:50:55. > :51:00.the faltering voice and the awareness of the consequences. The
:51:01. > :51:05.consequences are horrific. Then there was the declaration that I
:51:06. > :51:09.would do the same thing again. I doubt if that satisfied anyone.
:51:10. > :51:15.Certainly not those who have lost loved ones in Iraq. In another
:51:16. > :51:19.enormous issue, many enormous issues at the moment but Brexit. Nicholas
:51:20. > :51:24.MacPherson who was one of your sparring partners during the
:51:25. > :51:27.referendum campaign. His article suggesting there was a good chance
:51:28. > :51:31.for Scottish independence but that Scotland would have to commit to
:51:32. > :51:37.setting up its own currency. What do you make of that? I notice in John
:51:38. > :51:45.Harris was my interview he has been deserted by John Prescott. Tom has
:51:46. > :51:47.been deserted by Sir Nicholas MacPherson as fun as the
:51:48. > :51:55.advisability of cottage independence is concerned but Tom is still there
:51:56. > :52:00.on the rock by himself. On war and anti-Scottish independence. I think
:52:01. > :52:03.Sir Nicholas MacPherson's article was remarkable and I suppose he
:52:04. > :52:09.might argue he is no longer acting under the orders of George Osborne.
:52:10. > :52:12.Yet able to act as an independent political commentator. In terms of
:52:13. > :52:18.the currency issue itself that is correct. You would devise your
:52:19. > :52:21.currency policy that best suits the new circumstances and I am sure that
:52:22. > :52:27.is exactly what Nicola Sturgeon will do. What in your view would be the
:52:28. > :52:29.best currency policy every they'd is going to be another independence
:52:30. > :52:33.referendum campaign? I support what going to be another independence
:52:34. > :52:37.Nicola has said in this matter. She is reviewing that matter and will
:52:38. > :52:42.bring forward proposals. I have made a public statement saying that is
:52:43. > :52:46.the best way to approach things and I would approach it in the same way
:52:47. > :52:50.we did before the white paper. That is consulting the best experts.
:52:51. > :52:55.Perhaps Sir Nicholas might be among them, who knows? That would be
:52:56. > :53:00.changed circumstances. Then bring forward that committee of experts
:53:01. > :53:03.with the correct currency of Scotland under the new circumstances
:53:04. > :53:08.we face and put that forward as part of the overall prospectus for
:53:09. > :53:12.Scottish independence. The remarkable contrast in preparation
:53:13. > :53:16.that went into the referendum on Scottish independence as to what we
:53:17. > :53:23.would do if we won. As opposed to the zero preparation in the EU
:53:24. > :53:29.referendum is marked and telling. What he will say is you cannot go
:53:30. > :53:33.again with the idea of keeping the pound in an independent Scotland but
:53:34. > :53:37.particularly if Scotland were to be in the European Union and the rest
:53:38. > :53:42.of Britain was not. Would you accept that? If you remember the second
:53:43. > :53:45.debate, the BBC debate, let's call it the big debate with Alistair
:53:46. > :53:50.Darling during the referendum campaign. I laid out in that beat a
:53:51. > :53:53.range of currency options that Scotland could follow. These are
:53:54. > :53:59.still the range of currency options. What Nicola Sturgeon would do, I am
:54:00. > :54:03.sure, is pick the best of these with the greatest experts she can muster,
:54:04. > :54:06.with or without Sir Nicholas MacPherson, and then present the
:54:07. > :54:13.best policy of that range of options to take Scotland forward. Certainly,
:54:14. > :54:18.absolutely, I think we can all conclude over the past two weeks,
:54:19. > :54:21.the remarkable two weeks, the cluster gin has been the only
:54:22. > :54:30.politician has risen to the challenge of leadership.
:54:31. > :54:42.Is the game to get a commitment from the EU that should Britain leave,
:54:43. > :54:46.Scotland, could stay in? Is that the logic of having a referendum within
:54:47. > :54:50.two years? The logic of the talks and discussions that Nicola has been
:54:51. > :54:55.pursuing with the EU institutions and individual European politicians,
:54:56. > :55:00.and although we haven't had a statement from the institutions as
:55:01. > :55:03.yet, nor would you expect one as yet, it would have indications from
:55:04. > :55:07.the leadership of the political parties in the EU Parliament very
:55:08. > :55:12.favourable indeed to Scotland position, and I think these have
:55:13. > :55:15.been significant. If you don't get a commitment, it doesn't matter
:55:16. > :55:19.whether or not you have a referendum within two years, we could wait for
:55:20. > :55:25.the eventual agreement with Britain. If you'll allow me, I'll follow the
:55:26. > :55:29.leadership of Nicola Sturgeon as opposed to the hypothesis of Gordon
:55:30. > :55:30.Brewer. All right! We will have to leave it there.
:55:31. > :55:32.Since voters opted for Brexit, the pound along with consumer
:55:33. > :55:34.and business confidence has been falling.
:55:35. > :55:36.This week also saw several UK commercial property funds move
:55:37. > :55:39.to stem the rush of investors trying to get their money out.
:55:40. > :55:41.Meanwhile the cost of imports and commodities traded in dollars
:55:42. > :55:46.That's bad news for lovers of petrol, coffee and chocolate.
:55:47. > :55:50.But what does all this actually mean for the bigger economic picture?
:55:51. > :55:53.After all, for the time being, the UK is still a full member
:55:54. > :55:56.of the EU and some Brexiteers claim the declining value of the pound
:55:57. > :55:58.will help exports, thus mitigating any other difficulties.
:55:59. > :56:01.Well, shortly before we came on air, in an attempt to get
:56:02. > :56:03.to grips with Brexonomics, I spoke to the economist
:56:04. > :56:15.First of all, let's look at what's happened in the media at aftermath
:56:16. > :56:20.of Brexit. It was supposed to be Apocalypse now. And it seems to be
:56:21. > :56:25.may be Apocalypse sometime in the future but we are not quite sure
:56:26. > :56:31.when. Yes. There is a certain amount of land. We are only going to get
:56:32. > :56:38.hard economic statistics, the earliest probably in September, and
:56:39. > :56:48.what we have is a huge period of uncertainty. The indicator that
:56:49. > :56:54.looks bad is the currency. So, the Stirling dollar rate has gone down
:56:55. > :56:59.by around 12%. So that will make an impact over the next few months. It
:57:00. > :57:06.is somewhat of a double-edged sword. It is not so good for people all
:57:07. > :57:10.going away to the continent, but quite good for exporters but it'll
:57:11. > :57:15.take some time for the benefits of the currency to feed through. It is
:57:16. > :57:21.also ambiguous because while the pound against the dollar is down to
:57:22. > :57:27.a 30 year low, the pound against a basket of currency of our trading
:57:28. > :57:34.partners is down a little bit. That's true. A lot of the goods that
:57:35. > :57:39.we buy Ardagh nominated in dollars. So, you know, we will feel the
:57:40. > :57:48.effect on petrol quite soon, probably quite a lot on food prices,
:57:49. > :57:57.coffee. The overall impact on trade may not be as great as that might be
:57:58. > :58:04.implied by the pound dollar rate, but we will start to see the effects
:58:05. > :58:10.feed through over the next few months. And those could include
:58:11. > :58:14.things like higher petrol prices because oil is to nominated in
:58:15. > :58:23.dollars, and so on. Sure. I mean, on the sorts of devaluation against the
:58:24. > :58:28.dollar that we have seen so far, the Bank of England's rough guess I
:58:29. > :58:36.would estimate around 3% increase in prices. That is a rate of inflation
:58:37. > :58:40.that is within the Bank of England's target, but not like one we have
:58:41. > :58:44.seen for a long time because inflation has been quite slow for
:58:45. > :58:49.the last few years. It also has indications for living standards,
:58:50. > :58:54.doesn't it? We were just getting into a situation where, finally,
:58:55. > :58:59.since after the financial crash, real earnings were starting to go
:59:00. > :59:04.up, people were getting more in their pay packets and they were
:59:05. > :59:08.losing three inflation. It could stop that happening. What we will
:59:09. > :59:13.see is a bit of an impact for the new living wage. That will help
:59:14. > :59:14.people at the bottom somewhat. And people whose incomes are protected
:59:15. > :59:19.against inflation, who have got people whose incomes are protected
:59:20. > :59:25.something linked to inflation, they will be all right. But those people
:59:26. > :59:32.will maybe just above the national living wage, who had started to see
:59:33. > :59:37.some increase in the earnings, I suspect, especially if the economy
:59:38. > :59:43.slows down, that movement will be put into reverse. What we are
:59:44. > :59:47.sometimes tending to forget a little bit in this debate about the
:59:48. > :59:51.economic effect is that nothing has actually happened. We are still in
:59:52. > :59:55.the European Union. If you are a factory somewhere in Britain where
:59:56. > :59:59.your products go to Europe, nothing has changed. The real economic
:00:00. > :00:06.impact will presumably come when we actually leave. Well, I do think
:00:07. > :00:13.that actually uncertainty is building up. And that can have real
:00:14. > :00:17.economic effects. You do hear there may be apocryphal stories of
:00:18. > :00:21.investment being delayed, and that will take some time to feed through
:00:22. > :00:26.to the economic statistics but it is around decisions that are being laid
:00:27. > :00:31.now which arise because of the uncertainty, because no one really
:00:32. > :00:35.knows what the outcome of these negotiations, whether they be with
:00:36. > :00:39.the EU or the broader trade negotiations, where these are going
:00:40. > :00:45.to go. And that makes the UK's somewhat less of an attractive
:00:46. > :00:49.investment destination. Perhaps the most concerning thing that happened
:00:50. > :00:57.this week, rather than what has happened to the currency or markets,
:00:58. > :01:00.is that survey that was done of the German Chambers of Commerce, where
:01:01. > :01:04.German companies were saying either we will rethink investment in
:01:05. > :01:09.Britain or we will make no decision on investment in Britain. I think
:01:10. > :01:13.that's true. And I think one of the most important things and one of the
:01:14. > :01:18.benefits of EU has been technology transfer, so, you've got a lot of
:01:19. > :01:23.companies that work across the EU, manufacturing partly in Britain but
:01:24. > :01:31.partly in Germany, partly in France, and I think the companies that do
:01:32. > :01:35.that kind of work, it seems, are thinking very carefully because they
:01:36. > :01:41.don't know what is going to happen in relation to trade barriers or
:01:42. > :01:46.whatever, as far as the UK is concerned, so they are, I think,
:01:47. > :01:51.holding back for the moment. Different but related subject, a
:01:52. > :01:55.possible second independence referendum because of Brexit. What
:01:56. > :01:59.did you make of Nicola MacPherson's comments that this was a great
:02:00. > :02:03.chance for the SNP to get independence, but they would have to
:02:04. > :02:10.rethink the issue of currency and go for an independent currency? Well, I
:02:11. > :02:15.saw his article in the financial Times, and he argues the Treasury
:02:16. > :02:18.won't accept the trade union because they are being burned by that kind
:02:19. > :02:23.of arrangement in the past. That means effectively Scotland would
:02:24. > :02:34.have to go for its own currency. Well, I mean... That seems to me to
:02:35. > :02:41.be a logical argument. Where it might lead, not quite clear. Quite a
:02:42. > :02:44.lot of unknown is around it, but, certainly, a possible argument
:02:45. > :02:46.towards independence. All right, we will have to leave it there. Thank
:02:47. > :02:47.you very much indeed. The Education Secretary
:02:48. > :02:49.and Deputy First Minister has promised that he'll consider
:02:50. > :02:51.revising the remit of the government's
:02:52. > :02:54.inquiry into child abuse. John Swinney gave the commitment
:02:55. > :02:56.after meeting survivors' He'd been hoping to reassure them
:02:57. > :03:00.after two controversial resignations from the panel
:03:01. > :03:04.conducting the inquiry. Campaigners hope Mr Swinney
:03:05. > :03:06.will take this opportunity to widen the scope of the investigation,
:03:07. > :03:11.to include abuse out-with residential settings and to allow
:03:12. > :03:14.the award of recompense Did something bad happened here?
:03:15. > :03:37.When you were in care? Sometimes, a soap can help you
:03:38. > :03:44.understand something more than the bare facts in a news bulletin. There
:03:45. > :03:49.are always talking about historical abuse cases. Historical... You said
:03:50. > :04:00.historical. It's not historical. abuse cases. Historical... You said
:04:01. > :04:05.never ends. The writers and cast of River City heard first hand of abuse
:04:06. > :04:08.as they rehearsed Patrick's story. Drama of a different kind at the
:04:09. > :04:11.historic abuse inquiry. The chair Drama of a different kind at the
:04:12. > :04:17.and another panel member resigned, Drama of a different kind at the
:04:18. > :04:20.leaving just one in post. So, the education Secretary met survivors
:04:21. > :04:23.and support groups on Thursday, seeking to reassure them that the
:04:24. > :04:28.inquiry will be free from government interference. Afterwards, a welcome
:04:29. > :04:35.for John Swinney's commitment to look again at the inquiry's raiment.
:04:36. > :04:37.What we ask is to ensure the children of tomorrow are safe in
:04:38. > :04:48.this country, so you need to look at where the abuses in disease-mac
:04:49. > :04:52.occurred. If it is in guides, scouts, look at every institution,
:04:53. > :04:56.not just care homes. The process of evidence gathering is under way, and
:04:57. > :04:59.that is in no way in Pete by the events we have had to deal with in
:05:00. > :05:03.the course of the last couple of weeks. What I want to do is take
:05:04. > :05:07.time to isn't carefully to the survivors, which I have done today,
:05:08. > :05:10.and I will do so over the summer, reflect on the issues they've raised
:05:11. > :05:15.with me and take the necessary steps to appoint a new personal to lead
:05:16. > :05:18.the inquiry and also to consider the issues that have been raised.
:05:19. > :05:21.Survivors say they want the inquiry to tell the truth about what
:05:22. > :05:27.happened to them and to give them justice. If John Swinney looks at
:05:28. > :05:35.the remote and includes free dress, the same as they had an island, it
:05:36. > :05:38.means the two can run parallel. Some can speak about their performance,
:05:39. > :05:44.speak about the abuse they suffered. The panel of the inquiry would then
:05:45. > :05:49.have the power to include free dress for that individual. So, it could
:05:50. > :05:55.run parallel alongside, so it isn't a case of going forward, waiting for
:05:56. > :06:02.my gears, then going to court, then to try to get the justice. Redress
:06:03. > :06:03.means more than just giving survivors cash as compensation. As
:06:04. > :06:09.means more than just giving part of that whole concept of
:06:10. > :06:14.re-dress, that is about working to ensure that insofar as it is
:06:15. > :06:21.possible, we will restore people to the place they would have been in
:06:22. > :06:25.their lives if the abuse didn't take place. Sometimes insuring that you
:06:26. > :06:31.have appropriate medical services to refer people onto. In my experience,
:06:32. > :06:34.working with victims of abuse, it is often these unseen support services
:06:35. > :06:38.that are really important. We have already had a report into historic
:06:39. > :06:42.abuse in the Roman Catholic Church in Scotland. Can that experience
:06:43. > :06:48.teach us anything about what success looks like for inquiry, or what we
:06:49. > :06:52.should be looking for? Any inquiry, you can't judge the success of it at
:06:53. > :06:59.the end of it. It will be in the years to come, the inquiry will make
:07:00. > :07:02.their recommendations, the ways in which we should handle allegations,
:07:03. > :07:06.the ways in which we should try to engage with and help survivors, so
:07:07. > :07:09.you need to make those recommendations at the end of the
:07:10. > :07:15.inquiry and then revisit them. And there needs to be processed that in
:07:16. > :07:19.three or five years when you look at those recommendations and look at
:07:20. > :07:27.them, you say they were put into practice. Or not. And if not, what
:07:28. > :07:31.is the recourse than. The sad truth is that no inquiry can guarantee
:07:32. > :07:36.that abuse will not happen again. None of us know what the next abuser
:07:37. > :07:41.will look like. You can't tell. It is what human beings are capable of.
:07:42. > :07:45.Human beings are capable of doing that to children and that will
:07:46. > :07:47.always be the case as long as there are human beings in the world.
:07:48. > :07:51.It's time to look back at the events of the past week and see what's
:07:52. > :08:05.and the political commentator Hamish Macdonell.
:08:06. > :08:13.Let's start with Labour. Could not make it up. You couldn't, no. Angela
:08:14. > :08:18.Ingle and Jeremy Corbyn talking about their respective it's for
:08:19. > :08:22.leadership. Jeremy Corbyn looking to get on the ballot paper again but
:08:23. > :08:27.Angela Eagle is saying it is time for him to step back and she should
:08:28. > :08:30.take the leadership. She didn't look particularly happy to be putting
:08:31. > :08:37.herself forward for the leadership on Monday. It is a depressing
:08:38. > :08:42.situation in labour all around. And a possible split. It's difficult to
:08:43. > :08:45.see anything but a split. The basic point seems to be here that the
:08:46. > :08:52.Parliamentary Labour Party believes one thing, and the vast majority of
:08:53. > :08:54.the membership seems to believe another. The two are separate.
:08:55. > :09:02.However this goes, if the vote goes another. The two are separate.
:09:03. > :09:06.away in which one side doesn't like, it's difficult to see the party
:09:07. > :09:12.coming out of this in any form as a unified party. And also it is very
:09:13. > :09:14.difficult politically. If you have proportional representation, you can
:09:15. > :09:16.have these sorts of things but in a first past the post system,
:09:17. > :09:20.have these sorts of things but in a ever one ends up being the Labour
:09:21. > :09:26.Party... Is going to have the advantage. History tells us if you
:09:27. > :09:31.have any kind of breakaway party, it takes a long time for that party to
:09:32. > :09:34.get anywhere in terms of representational politics. The SDP
:09:35. > :09:37.suffered. They had a large number of people supporting them but they
:09:38. > :09:41.could make the breakthrough which is what the first past the persistent
:09:42. > :09:45.does. It we trenches two big parties, some if the big party
:09:46. > :09:49.splits, it's going to be difficult for both parts of that party to
:09:50. > :09:55.fight on and try to become an opposition. And to stop that
:09:56. > :10:00.happening, Lynsey, one side has to give on something. There isn't much
:10:01. > :10:05.sign of either side being prepared to. There doesn't. And this morning
:10:06. > :10:09.both Jeremy Corbyn and Angela Eagle were talking about saying to each
:10:10. > :10:13.other, it is time to take a step back to unify the party, to bring it
:10:14. > :10:16.together and to prevent the split from happening. But it really looks
:10:17. > :10:22.like it is too late for that now. This is gone too far, and it is very
:10:23. > :10:25.difficult to see the two sides reconciling, no matter what happens,
:10:26. > :10:29.if Jeremy Corbyn does get on the ballot paper and he wins, there is
:10:30. > :10:32.going to be resentment among the Parliamentary group, they are not
:10:33. > :10:37.going to accept that. We should point out they could even be a legal
:10:38. > :10:41.battle over whether or not Jeremy Corbyn gets to be on the ballot.
:10:42. > :10:44.That's right. It's not clear. Neil Kinnock was saying that when this
:10:45. > :10:48.happened to him, he had to get the signatures to get on the ballot
:10:49. > :10:51.paper and German Corbyn was saying he expects, as the incumbent leader,
:10:52. > :10:55.to automatically get on the ballot paper, said there is going to be a
:10:56. > :10:58.row over that. Len McCluskey warned that if he doesn't get on the ballot
:10:59. > :11:01.paper, you're going to be facing a split anyway because of the huge
:11:02. > :11:07.revolt from Jeremy Corbyn's supporters. It is the point Andrew
:11:08. > :11:13.Neil was putting too Angela Eagle, isn't it? It is ridiculous to have
:11:14. > :11:15.someone who was elected by 60% of the membership not allow to stand
:11:16. > :11:31.again after less than a year. That is the big weakness of the
:11:32. > :11:36.Jeremy Corbyn position. If Angela Eagle is seen to be a stalking horse
:11:37. > :11:40.and she stands to force an election and then somebody comes through on
:11:41. > :11:44.the left is acceptable to both sides but is not Jeremy Corbyn, that is a
:11:45. > :11:46.possible way of uniting the party but even that it is difficult to see
:11:47. > :11:48.how it might work. That would but even that it is difficult to see
:11:49. > :11:53.reasonably require Jeremy Corbyn Wai but even that it is difficult to see
:11:54. > :12:02.Phyo OK the game is up but perhaps I could be in the Shadow Cabinet.
:12:03. > :12:06.Someone close someone close good say he could stand on so long as he is
:12:07. > :12:12.given his way. It is difficult to see how he could possibly back down
:12:13. > :12:18.now. Tories, leadership contest, that one is getting nasty by the
:12:19. > :12:22.minute as well? Indeed it is. Andrea led some in trouble over some
:12:23. > :12:26.comments she has been making. She denies they were made in the way the
:12:27. > :12:30.Times newspaper has said they have reported them. It is not a great
:12:31. > :12:34.start for Andrea led some but I wonder if it is because this is how
:12:35. > :12:37.the will be decided by the Tory membership it is not going to
:12:38. > :12:41.matter. It will not be the rest of us who get to decide, it is those
:12:42. > :12:49.Tory members and perhaps they like Andrea led some. I am not say the
:12:50. > :12:55.decision not to have children is not important to some people but it is
:12:56. > :12:59.quite extraordinary that this Tory leadership contest has turned into a
:13:00. > :13:02.debate about someone having not having children rather than the fact
:13:03. > :13:08.they will have to negotiate an exit when they come into office. I think
:13:09. > :13:17.what it showed is the inexperience of Andrea Leadsom. When the comments
:13:18. > :13:21.came out she should have had a measured response to them rather
:13:22. > :13:25.than flying off the handle and accusing the times of this, that and
:13:26. > :13:33.the next thing. It shows a gulf of experience between Theresa May and
:13:34. > :13:36.Andrea Leadsom. My feeling is with all the people we have had over the
:13:37. > :13:40.past couple of weeks that those Tory members will want safety and
:13:41. > :13:45.security and stability. For that reason they will want probably to
:13:46. > :13:49.vote for Theresa May go the way things are at the moment who knows.
:13:50. > :13:52.We will hold you to that! I'll be back at the
:13:53. > :13:57.same time next week.