:00:35. > :00:40.There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next
:00:41. > :00:42.leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,
:00:43. > :00:49.This man might have something to say about that.
:00:50. > :00:52.Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.
:00:53. > :00:55.So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?
:00:56. > :01:00.The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane
:01:01. > :01:03.on the country's second city which has been in the hands of
:01:04. > :01:11.But what will be the fallout from this key clash?
:01:12. > :01:15.A former SNP leader warns the party against stumbling into
:01:16. > :01:25.And are the Scottish Greens about to show their true colours?
:01:26. > :01:31.And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political
:01:32. > :01:34.panel in the business: Toby Young, Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn -
:01:35. > :01:43.The last leader was in the job a mere 18 days before she decided
:01:44. > :01:49.The favourite to succeed her then quit the party after a now infamous
:01:50. > :01:54.Ukip's biggest donor says the party is at "breaking point".
:01:55. > :02:01.This morning, the former Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans,
:02:02. > :02:03.announced that she would be running for the leadership.
:02:04. > :02:08.I've thought long and hard about this leadership bid,
:02:09. > :02:11.and one of the reasons I've perhaps delayed announcing it is
:02:12. > :02:14.because I wanted to be absolutely sure that I had the support
:02:15. > :02:18.And I can confirm that I have more than enough signatures
:02:19. > :02:21.on the nomination form already to be able to go forward.
:02:22. > :02:24.Let's not forget that 3,000 people signed a petition in support of me
:02:25. > :02:29.I know head office was besieged with letters in support.
:02:30. > :02:33.I would not be doing this if I didn't have the backing
:02:34. > :02:36.of our members, because our members are the most important
:02:37. > :02:44.Well, Paul Nuttall was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years
:02:45. > :02:47.and plenty of people saw him as a leader-in-waiting.
:02:48. > :02:56.Let's ask the man himself - Paul Nuttall joins me now.
:02:57. > :03:03.Yes. I've made the decision that I'm going to put my name forward to be
:03:04. > :03:07.the next leader of Ukip. I have huge support across the country, not only
:03:08. > :03:12.amongst people at the top of the party in Westminster and with the
:03:13. > :03:17.MEPs, but also the grassroots. I want to be the unity candidate. Ukip
:03:18. > :03:21.needs to come together. I'm not going to gild the lily. Ukip is
:03:22. > :03:33.looking over a political cliff at the moment. It will either step four
:03:34. > :03:35.step back, and I want to tell us to step backwards. You say it faces an
:03:36. > :03:38.ex-distension or threat, which means it's possible it has no future at
:03:39. > :03:43.all. Students of political history know that political parties take a
:03:44. > :03:49.long time to get going. They can disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is
:03:50. > :03:53.facing an existential crisis. What happened over the summer has put us
:03:54. > :03:58.on a... We could be on a spiral that we can't get off. But I believe I am
:03:59. > :04:02.the man to bring the factions together, to create unity within the
:04:03. > :04:07.party, and to build on the structure and get us ready for the common
:04:08. > :04:11.challenges. Why didn't you stand last time? Because I have spent the
:04:12. > :04:16.last four or five years of my life travelling around the country. I
:04:17. > :04:21.have done more Ukip meetings than anybody else, spending a lot of time
:04:22. > :04:26.away from home. With Brexit, I felt that my job and Nigel's job was done
:04:27. > :04:30.and we could hand over to the next generation. That doesn't seem to be
:04:31. > :04:35.the case, and maybe it's time for someone who is an old hand. I'm very
:04:36. > :04:40.experienced and I know the party inside out. Maybe it's time to step
:04:41. > :04:47.in and bring the party together. You told the Liverpool Echo on the night
:04:48. > :04:50.of July that you didn't wish to take on Nigel Farage, you didn't want
:04:51. > :04:59.that to happen to your family and friends. What has changed? The party
:05:00. > :05:04.is facing an existential crisis, and I want to make sure that Ukip is on
:05:05. > :05:10.the pitch to keep the ball into the open net we have in politics. We
:05:11. > :05:17.have a Conservative Party who is moving toward Brexit, but we have to
:05:18. > :05:22.be there too. Why would you be better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne
:05:23. > :05:26.would be an excellent candidate. I thought the 2015 manifesto was the
:05:27. > :05:30.best out of all the political parties. I would be the best
:05:31. > :05:36.candidate because of my experience. I am not part of any faction within
:05:37. > :05:40.the party. Is she? I get on well with everybody, and I believe I
:05:41. > :05:47.could be the man to bring the party together. Do you get on with Iain
:05:48. > :05:51.Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is supporting one of your rivals? Yes,
:05:52. > :05:56.I get on well with him. He is able to choose whoever he wants to be the
:05:57. > :06:01.next leader of the party. After November 28, the leadership
:06:02. > :06:06.election, we all say, the past the past. It becomes Daisy row for the
:06:07. > :06:13.new leader. We forget all that has before and move on. You won the
:06:14. > :06:17.referendum. Mrs May is adopting some of your policies, like grammar
:06:18. > :06:23.schools. What is the point of Ukip these days? Twofold. We don't have
:06:24. > :06:27.Brexit. Mrs May said she would not invoke Article 50 until the end of
:06:28. > :06:32.March, and we don't know if that will happen. We need to ensure a
:06:33. > :06:38.strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit really does mean Brexit. We have a
:06:39. > :06:42.huge opportunity in working class communities where the Labour Party
:06:43. > :06:47.no longer represents them. I believe Ukip can become the voice of working
:06:48. > :06:50.people. If you were the leader, would Ukip be a bigger threat to
:06:51. > :06:56.Labour in the north or the Tories in the South? You save Labour in the
:06:57. > :07:00.north, and people often to make that mistake. There's working class
:07:01. > :07:02.communities right across the country is. There are working-class
:07:03. > :07:17.communities in Bristol just as in Newcastle. We are second in a
:07:18. > :07:19.number of northern seats, and southern seats as well, and I
:07:20. > :07:23.believe the party can move into these communities. It can only do so
:07:24. > :07:25.if Ukip is on the pitch, and I intend to make sure that's the case.
:07:26. > :07:32.I don't think we have portrayed a good image over the summer. Is that
:07:33. > :07:40.called British understatement? A bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to
:07:41. > :07:43.move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have to build a strong national Executive
:07:44. > :07:49.Committee. We need to ensure our branches are ready for the fight and
:07:50. > :07:53.concentrate on local elections. I've got the experience. I'm now throwing
:07:54. > :07:59.my hat into the ring, and I'm the only person who can keep Ukip in the
:08:00. > :08:03.game. What role would you give Nigel Farage, if any? I will be the
:08:04. > :08:08.candidate of compromise. I would see what Nigel wanted to do. Would you
:08:09. > :08:12.keep in the leader of the freedom and democracy group in the European
:08:13. > :08:15.Parliament? There would have to be compromise on both sides, and we
:08:16. > :08:23.would need to talk about it. I don't know what Nigel wants to do. Do you
:08:24. > :08:27.think his support, his association with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win
:08:28. > :08:31.female votes in this country? Personally, I would not have gone
:08:32. > :08:37.out and campaigned or said anything about Donald Trump, but I don't
:08:38. > :08:42.think Ukip has come out and backed Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I
:08:43. > :08:44.wouldn't have even spoken about the American election, because I think
:08:45. > :08:51.the two candidates are quite appalling. Some up for us. If you
:08:52. > :08:56.win, what would be the hallmark of your Ukip leadership? The first
:08:57. > :09:02.couple of months would be ensuring that Ukip unifies. Saying no to
:09:03. > :09:08.factions, bringing people together. Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of
:09:09. > :09:13.the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can move forward. If we don't unify,
:09:14. > :09:14.Ukip will not be around for much longer. Thanks for being with us
:09:15. > :09:16.this morning. We won't have to wait too long
:09:17. > :09:19.to find out who Ukip's new leader will be -
:09:20. > :09:29.the winner will be announced Who would be the best leader for
:09:30. > :09:33.Ukip? I think the difference between the field a few weeks ago and today
:09:34. > :09:41.is that this field is a lot stronger. Whether it's Paul or
:09:42. > :09:49.Suzanne, I think... It is hard to say, with Aaron Banks and apparently
:09:50. > :09:56.Nigel Farage hacking another candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip
:09:57. > :10:03.to be a strong force in British politics. I think the fact there is
:10:04. > :10:10.a stronger field now is good news for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst
:10:11. > :10:17.nightmare in the north of England? It is. I think the personality
:10:18. > :10:21.difference and presentational difference is interesting. Suzanne
:10:22. > :10:25.Evans is going for the Conservative county vote. There's a lot to be
:10:26. > :10:32.taken there by Ukip. He would probably be more appealing to the
:10:33. > :10:39.Labour vote. It is interesting. At the moment, pollsters say that the
:10:40. > :10:50.Ukip vote splits pretty easily between Labour and Tory. But things
:10:51. > :10:54.always collapse. When they have made inroads into Tower Hamlets and
:10:55. > :11:02.Barking, they collapse, because they fight amongst each other so much.
:11:03. > :11:10.But not always with fists! Does Ukip have a future? And who would best
:11:11. > :11:14.secure that future? It does for at least two years, until we Brexit. We
:11:15. > :11:21.have to believe that that will happen. That was an impressive pitch
:11:22. > :11:25.there from Paul, certainly as the unity candidate, after the car crash
:11:26. > :11:31.we have seen on TV screens this morning. But it doesn't go beyond
:11:32. > :11:33.May 20 19. What then? There is no point being called the United
:11:34. > :11:40.Kingdom Independence party any longer. What will happen after May
:11:41. > :11:45.2019? If you want to hoover up votes of the back of Brexit, you need to
:11:46. > :11:50.start looking further ahead than two years. The person who wins that
:11:51. > :11:52.leadership contest is the person who will sum that up the best. We shall
:11:53. > :11:55.see. In June 2014, the group which calls
:11:56. > :11:58.itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured Iraq's
:11:59. > :12:00.second city, Mosul. Later that month the group announced
:12:01. > :12:02.it was establishing a 'caliphate', or an Islamic state,
:12:03. > :12:04.on the territories it This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided
:12:05. > :12:14.by Iranian-backed Shia fighters, Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air
:12:15. > :12:19.support, began the assault Then they spot a truck bomb
:12:20. > :12:37.from so-called Islamic State. They destroy it before
:12:38. > :12:41.it destroys them. These are the first steps
:12:42. > :12:44.in the battle for Mosul, the Northern Iraqi city IS has
:12:45. > :12:49.made its stronghold since 2014. Controlling the city of around
:12:50. > :12:54.2 million people means that they established governance,
:12:55. > :12:58.they establish a territorial base. This is what has obsessed everyone,
:12:59. > :13:01.because with a territorial base you are capable of doing more
:13:02. > :13:06.than if you are simply an insurgency movement in the fabric
:13:07. > :13:10.of another society. It's being billed as the biggest
:13:11. > :13:14.military operation in Iraq since the war in 2003, the biggest
:13:15. > :13:18.moment in the international effort Here is how the various forces
:13:19. > :13:23.are approaching the city. Heading to Mosul from the south,
:13:24. > :13:28.the elite troops of the Iraqi army. Known as the Golden division,
:13:29. > :13:30.trained and accompanied From the North, a force made up
:13:31. > :13:37.of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga, Also from the South,
:13:38. > :13:42.a militia made up of Shia fighters who have been accused
:13:43. > :13:45.of human rights abuses. British planes have bombed outlying
:13:46. > :13:49.villages, reportedly guided in by British personnel
:13:50. > :13:56.on the ground. To the North West, a corridor
:13:57. > :13:58.has been left for some of the 3000 plus IS fighters,
:13:59. > :14:01.in theory an escape route which could limit the bloodshed
:14:02. > :14:04.when fighting starts in the city. We've had 4-5 days of battle
:14:05. > :14:07.and it's taking place in the outlying villages
:14:08. > :14:09.and there have been some successes and some failures,
:14:10. > :14:12.but the momentum is building. And the real question will be
:14:13. > :14:15.when the attackers get towards the city itself,
:14:16. > :14:19.how strong are the defences? It will crack but it might crack
:14:20. > :14:26.within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks. IS has fought back,
:14:27. > :14:30.on Friday they attack sites in the city of Kirkuk,
:14:31. > :14:33.including a power station. The United Nations believes hundreds
:14:34. > :14:35.of thousands of families have been rounded up
:14:36. > :14:38.as potential human shields. The battle could be bloody,
:14:39. > :14:43.but what about when it's over? The Shia militias, the Iraqi army,
:14:44. > :14:45.the Peshmerga guerrillas, some of the Turkish elements,
:14:46. > :14:48.they all want a share of the action. They are in Mosul, not
:14:49. > :14:52.for altruistic reasons. They are there because they want
:14:53. > :14:55.to be part of whatever happens next. The biggest issue is how the Sunni
:14:56. > :15:00.majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia militias which have
:15:01. > :15:04.helped to liberate them. ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis
:15:05. > :15:06.Humphrey went to Mosul If it all seems like something
:15:07. > :15:10.from the archive, when the Middle East went up in flames
:15:11. > :15:13.and was then carved up, it is because that is what is
:15:14. > :15:16.happening in Iraq right now. National identity has been cut
:15:17. > :15:21.across by other identities such And that means that putting together
:15:22. > :15:31.a so-called nation state again Almost certainly there will be
:15:32. > :15:37.a new form of Kurdish state, almost certainly in northern Iraq
:15:38. > :15:40.at the end of this crisis, and what is happening in Mosul
:15:41. > :15:43.is a microcosm of what is happening elsewhere across the Levant
:15:44. > :15:47.which is that it is melting down. Big questions, questions that
:15:48. > :15:50.come after the battle. The coalition forces are advancing
:15:51. > :15:52.but this is just the beginning. I'm joined now by the International
:15:53. > :16:02.Development Minister Rory Stewart. In a former life he was
:16:03. > :16:05.the coalition Deputy-Governor of two provinces in Southern Iraq following
:16:06. > :16:20.the Iraq intervention of 2003. Is there any doubt that at
:16:21. > :16:30.stage Mosul will fall to the forces of Iraq and its allies? The first
:16:31. > :16:33.thing is that war is very uncertain and there are cliches about it being
:16:34. > :16:36.the graveyard of predictions and we don't want to make confident
:16:37. > :16:45.predictions but the basic structure is that there are 30,000 Iraqi
:16:46. > :16:51.forces outside and only a few thousand Daesh fighters inside and I
:16:52. > :17:00.would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the batter will one
:17:01. > :17:03.STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the Iraqi forces.
:17:04. > :17:11.June 2014 was a great success, they took a city of over in people and
:17:12. > :17:15.they created what they tried to create a million state of 7 million
:17:16. > :17:20.people, stretching across the Iraqi Syrian border, but since then they
:17:21. > :17:22.have lost territory quite rapidly. Now they are losing the outskirts of
:17:23. > :17:26.have lost territory quite rapidly. Mosul, and that is a fundamental
:17:27. > :17:29.blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is
:17:30. > :17:36.what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that
:17:37. > :17:41.will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary
:17:42. > :17:45.Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi
:17:46. > :17:48.forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of
:17:49. > :17:55.Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which
:17:56. > :18:00.is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we
:18:01. > :18:08.want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.
:18:09. > :18:10.Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the
:18:11. > :18:16.border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of
:18:17. > :18:21.that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the
:18:22. > :18:28.coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is
:18:29. > :18:32.likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street
:18:33. > :18:37.to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we
:18:38. > :18:42.doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is
:18:43. > :18:46.very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone
:18:47. > :18:56.into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps
:18:57. > :19:02.around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40
:19:03. > :19:06.million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms
:19:07. > :19:13.of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response
:19:14. > :19:16.budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we
:19:17. > :19:21.are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is
:19:22. > :19:24.that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this
:19:25. > :19:31.assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You
:19:32. > :19:34.are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning
:19:35. > :19:40.since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --
:19:41. > :19:44.planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the
:19:45. > :19:47.appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we
:19:48. > :19:52.need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in
:19:53. > :19:55.place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is
:19:56. > :19:59.continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.
:20:00. > :20:03.The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big
:20:04. > :20:09.exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist
:20:10. > :20:14.magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a
:20:15. > :20:18.unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it
:20:19. > :20:20.could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out
:20:21. > :20:26.of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is
:20:27. > :20:29.very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and
:20:30. > :20:33.keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring
:20:34. > :20:37.them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been
:20:38. > :20:41.working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we
:20:42. > :20:47.have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have
:20:48. > :20:51.worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their
:20:52. > :20:54.structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have
:20:55. > :20:59.done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the
:21:00. > :21:05.British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming
:21:06. > :21:11.that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt
:21:12. > :21:16.with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be
:21:17. > :21:22.crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need
:21:23. > :21:27.to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as
:21:28. > :21:31.bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by
:21:32. > :21:38.the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is
:21:39. > :21:41.that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they
:21:42. > :21:47.have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is
:21:48. > :21:52.stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making
:21:53. > :21:56.sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is
:21:57. > :22:01.making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's
:22:02. > :22:07.response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that
:22:08. > :22:11.is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the
:22:12. > :22:15.front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to
:22:16. > :22:19.make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that
:22:20. > :22:26.population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing
:22:27. > :22:31.territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we
:22:32. > :22:37.think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part
:22:38. > :22:41.of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult
:22:42. > :22:47.across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United
:22:48. > :22:53.Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real
:22:54. > :22:57.danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last
:22:58. > :23:03.five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop
:23:04. > :23:08.often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been
:23:09. > :23:12.largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it
:23:13. > :23:16.went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it
:23:17. > :23:19.holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it
:23:20. > :23:23.gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else
:23:24. > :23:28.and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They
:23:29. > :23:34.say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a
:23:35. > :23:36.big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we
:23:37. > :23:48.keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --
:23:49. > :23:51.safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in
:23:52. > :23:58.Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen
:23:59. > :24:01.in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the
:24:02. > :24:04.conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much
:24:05. > :24:09.energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the
:24:10. > :24:14.humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want
:24:15. > :24:17.to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to
:24:18. > :24:21.make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking
:24:22. > :24:24.after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they
:24:25. > :24:30.have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why
:24:31. > :24:33.our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals
:24:34. > :24:40.with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.
:24:41. > :24:48.I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.
:24:49. > :24:59.Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We
:25:00. > :25:04.fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important
:25:05. > :25:10.move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the
:25:11. > :25:13.government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State
:25:14. > :25:19.this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF
:25:20. > :25:23.pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces
:25:24. > :25:28.on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if
:25:29. > :25:35.you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your
:25:36. > :25:37.leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.
:25:38. > :25:39.What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi
:25:40. > :25:41.government, and currently supported by the British government.
:25:42. > :25:43.I did not support it when it came up.
:25:44. > :25:47.Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most
:25:48. > :25:50.of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we
:25:51. > :25:59.He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been
:26:00. > :26:03.very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have
:26:04. > :26:08.learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt
:26:09. > :26:12.sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the
:26:13. > :26:18.aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was
:26:19. > :26:25.from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told
:26:26. > :26:29.the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air
:26:30. > :26:33.strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in
:26:34. > :26:36.Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face
:26:37. > :26:41.the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.
:26:42. > :26:48.We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it
:26:49. > :26:53.is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic
:26:54. > :26:57.State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is
:26:58. > :27:03.he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the
:27:04. > :27:07.past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,
:27:08. > :27:09.both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also
:27:10. > :27:15.in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you
:27:16. > :27:19.mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress
:27:20. > :27:25.with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do
:27:26. > :27:36.you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to
:27:37. > :27:45.read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the
:27:46. > :27:53.car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems
:27:54. > :27:58.they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to
:27:59. > :28:01.pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have
:28:02. > :28:06.become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer
:28:07. > :28:12.interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to
:28:13. > :28:16.the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that
:28:17. > :28:19.is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies
:28:20. > :28:24.and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken
:28:25. > :28:27.democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference
:28:28. > :28:36.and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy
:28:37. > :28:39.Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,
:28:40. > :28:42.but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the
:28:43. > :28:49.international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very
:28:50. > :28:53.clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the
:28:54. > :28:58.next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of
:28:59. > :29:01.Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a
:29:02. > :29:06.very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are
:29:07. > :29:13.reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't
:29:14. > :29:16.change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues
:29:17. > :29:23.related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't
:29:24. > :29:28.change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to
:29:29. > :29:32.Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It
:29:33. > :29:35.is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato
:29:36. > :29:40.allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not
:29:41. > :29:43.let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the
:29:44. > :29:48.way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be
:29:49. > :29:51.taking them to international court over this, but we should also be
:29:52. > :29:57.taking them to international court strengthening sanctions, somewhat
:29:58. > :30:02.imposed over Ukraine. We try to do that, but the Italians wouldn't let
:30:03. > :30:03.us. The Italians did not want to participate in the European
:30:04. > :30:10.initiative but that doesn't stop individual countries for the Britain
:30:11. > :30:13.should step up? Yes, we should look at what is practical to impose.
:30:14. > :30:18.Thanks for joining us. Mosul is not the only major battle
:30:19. > :30:21.being waged in the Middle East. The city of Aleppo in northern Syria
:30:22. > :30:25.has seen some of the heaviest bombardment since Syria's
:30:26. > :30:28.five-year-long civil war began. This week Russian warships,
:30:29. > :30:31.in a deliberate show of power, sailed west through the English
:30:32. > :30:35.channel en route to Syria. Nato says it's Russia's "largest
:30:36. > :30:38.surface deployment" since the end of the Cold War in what is thought
:30:39. > :30:41.to be preparation for a final assault
:30:42. > :30:45.on the besieged city of Aleppo. In the city itself fighting
:30:46. > :30:49.resumed overnight - following a 3-day ceasefire -
:30:50. > :30:54.with more air strikes and heavy clashes in the city's
:30:55. > :30:57.rebel-held eastern districts. Almost 500 people have been
:30:58. > :31:00.killed and 2,000 injured since Syrian government forces,
:31:01. > :31:04.backed by Russian air strikes, This week Theresa May condemned
:31:05. > :31:11.Vladimir Putin's involvement in Syria, accusing Moscow
:31:12. > :31:14.of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support
:31:15. > :31:17.of President Assad's regime. But European leaders are divided
:31:18. > :31:21.on how to respond and, with the United States preoccupied
:31:22. > :31:24.with domestic politics, President Putin senses this
:31:25. > :31:28.is his moment to bring the Syrian I'm joined now by the BBC's former
:31:29. > :31:36.Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent, Bridget Kendall, who is now Master
:31:37. > :31:49.of Peterhouse College in Cambridge. Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC
:31:50. > :31:56.studio again. Let me put up this satellite image of Aleppo here, to
:31:57. > :32:01.get an idea of the scale. It was the biggest city in Syria. It was the
:32:02. > :32:06.commercial capital and a huge cultural hub as well. Almost the New
:32:07. > :32:11.York of Syria, to give you an idea of its significance to the country.
:32:12. > :32:16.Let me show you now how it's been divided. The rebels are now in
:32:17. > :32:23.control of the eastern part, about eight miles long and three miles
:32:24. > :32:27.wide there, they're in purple. They are under great attacks still. Is it
:32:28. > :32:36.inevitable that that purple part falls to the regime? That is what
:32:37. > :32:42.President as Saad, the Russians and the Iranians hope. The fierce
:32:43. > :32:46.bombardments we have seen is part of that. I'm reminded very much in the
:32:47. > :32:51.Russian tactics of what happened in grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when
:32:52. > :32:57.the Russians said, a warning for all civilians to lead, and then they
:32:58. > :33:02.went ahead and they basically raised it to the ground. They are talking
:33:03. > :33:08.about Al Nusrah as being one of the rebel groups. They got rid of all of
:33:09. > :33:12.the terrorists. They talk about it being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The
:33:13. > :33:16.purpose of going in is to get rid of them. You get the civilians out and
:33:17. > :33:21.then you take it. But this isn't like Chechnya. It is much more
:33:22. > :33:26.complex. We have seen an attempt to take Aleppo before, and then there
:33:27. > :33:30.was a rebel counter offensive. It's not so certain. And there are so
:33:31. > :33:34.many different parties involved. We have seen the alarm in the west of
:33:35. > :33:36.the extent of the civilian casualties. There have been
:33:37. > :33:46.rumblings in the west of, the United States do something?
:33:47. > :33:50.Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air force? This Russian aircraft carrier
:33:51. > :33:55.steaming its way towards the Eastern Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture,
:33:56. > :34:01.both to its own people, but also to the West, to say, don't get involved
:34:02. > :34:08.in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try and stop us because we could up the
:34:09. > :34:12.ante. They have not been great visual pictures, because the
:34:13. > :34:18.aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped out, belching out smoke! If the
:34:19. > :34:23.rebel controlled area does fall, it would be seen as a great victory for
:34:24. > :34:28.President as Saad and his Russian allies. What is the aim of Russia
:34:29. > :34:33.here? What would they then do, if Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan
:34:34. > :34:39.that President Putin set out in his UN speech in 2014, before Russia
:34:40. > :34:43.went into Syria. The aim is to put President Assad back in charge.
:34:44. > :34:48.President Putin said this weekend that either is Assad in Damascus, or
:34:49. > :34:53.its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in between. They want to eliminate the
:34:54. > :34:58.argument for a moderate opposition. They want to make it plain that the
:34:59. > :35:06.only way to get a stable Syria is to have Assad back in charge. Even sue
:35:07. > :35:15.argue for a rump steak lit, leaving aside what is happening with IAS.
:35:16. > :35:19.They have already said they want to have an enlarged military presence
:35:20. > :35:27.at their bases. And they have a big naval base. It is. It is a chance to
:35:28. > :35:33.push for this when he sees the West is being distracted and divided.
:35:34. > :35:38.Europe and America, by elections and so on. Just before the US elections.
:35:39. > :35:43.The Americans are worried about that, Europeans are being distracted
:35:44. > :35:48.by Brexit. He can push to his maximum advantage now, before there
:35:49. > :35:58.is a new US president. If they do take that part of Aleppo, and that
:35:59. > :36:03.part of northern Syria, does Mr Putin want us to recognise, to
:36:04. > :36:08.admit, that that is now his sphere of influence? I think the rhetoric
:36:09. > :36:13.from the Russians is that they want the West to recognise that they are
:36:14. > :36:18.an equal powerful partner. It's not just the US that runs the writ in
:36:19. > :36:24.the Middle East. Russia is as important as it is. It is engaging
:36:25. > :36:29.with Saudi Arabia and has mended fences with Turkey. Syria is the
:36:30. > :36:34.place from which it can launch its message that it is a big player in
:36:35. > :36:39.the Middle East. Russia wants the West to understand that this isn't a
:36:40. > :36:44.country that was dismembered after the end of the Soviet Union and is
:36:45. > :36:50.now a week. It is back, and it is strong. That is an important
:36:51. > :36:54.message. Looking at the economy. It is in recession. GDP has been
:36:55. > :36:58.falling, partly because of the price of oil. It is highly dependent on
:36:59. > :37:02.hydrocarbons, and is expected to of oil. It is highly dependent on
:37:03. > :37:08.fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how
:37:09. > :37:14.small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It
:37:15. > :37:23.is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years
:37:24. > :37:28.ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?
:37:29. > :37:33.A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a
:37:34. > :37:39.price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting
:37:40. > :37:44.the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which
:37:45. > :37:50.is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and
:37:51. > :37:57.dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.
:37:58. > :38:01.But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are
:38:02. > :38:06.supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,
:38:07. > :38:11.because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for
:38:12. > :38:19.the Russian people. Thank you very much.
:38:20. > :38:21.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.
:38:22. > :38:24.Coming up on the programme: Nicola Sturgeon publishes her draft
:38:25. > :38:27.referendum bill and warns Theresa May if there's a hard Brexit
:38:28. > :38:31.there will be another vote on independence.
:38:32. > :38:34.We'll hear from a former SNP leader why he thinks that's
:38:35. > :38:44.The Scottish Greens could scupper another independence referendum.
:38:45. > :38:46.I'll be asking their leader whether they might.
:38:47. > :38:47.And Pravda is coming to Edinburgh.
:38:48. > :38:53.The former leader of the SNP, Gordon Wilson, has warned the party
:38:54. > :38:57.to put its own house in order before going for a second referendum.
:38:58. > :38:59.He fears that, with the IndyRef2 Draft Bill published,
:39:00. > :39:01.there will be those in the party who'll push
:39:02. > :39:15.A message was do not push for independence right now.
:39:16. > :39:26.The reasons against having one is that Scotland potluck Independent is
:39:27. > :39:31.unlikely to win because there a gap between ten point between 45 and 55.
:39:32. > :39:34.Quite narrow territory in which to fight it. Of course if there is
:39:35. > :39:37.another provocation from London which seems to be the case with
:39:38. > :39:43.Theresa May and her ministers being very harsh on the consultation with
:39:44. > :39:47.Scotland, who can tell what the result will be. If you go back to
:39:48. > :39:52.the first referendum, then of course there will be a huge gap to begin
:39:53. > :39:55.with. It started moving in favour of independence when George on spawn
:39:56. > :40:03.was Chancellor of the Exchequer and started threatening Scotland that he
:40:04. > :40:09.could not use the pound. For now, you do not think it should be done.
:40:10. > :40:14.My preference is that over the longer times and we should focus on
:40:15. > :40:18.the narrative of it. Why is God and should have it what the economic
:40:19. > :40:22.advantages would be, what weaknesses we need to resolve in our society,
:40:23. > :40:26.in other words to do the basic homework. People will want to know
:40:27. > :40:31.and want to touch this solution and see if it is solid enough for them
:40:32. > :40:35.to rely on. Of course, beyond that there is a question of identity.
:40:36. > :40:40.That seems to fall into place automatically. There are dangers on
:40:41. > :40:46.there? On an interview on the radio comedies said a second referendum at
:40:47. > :40:50.the moment could be a waste of time. It is more than that, if they lost a
:40:51. > :40:55.second referendum, it would be a waste of time and it would be
:40:56. > :40:57.counter productive. That was me being dogmatic about it. Of course
:40:58. > :41:04.Theresa May faces the same problem. Theresa May faces the same problem.
:41:05. > :41:09.-- diplomatic about it. If she Theresa May carries on in the way
:41:10. > :41:16.she is legible push Scotland towards independence. It is a gamble for
:41:17. > :41:21.both sides. Your golden rule is to not have a referendum and less you
:41:22. > :41:25.know you can win it. That is my preference in business and in life.
:41:26. > :41:28.It is far better to be in a strong position, having laid down the
:41:29. > :41:35.conditions under which it will take place and I think in the current
:41:36. > :41:39.rather difficult situation of Brexit, then it is going to be a
:41:40. > :41:43.very complicated question to answer. And I am not sure it can easily be
:41:44. > :41:47.done over the course of our six-month referendum campaign.
:41:48. > :41:51.Having said that, one of the things you have got to note is the access
:41:52. > :41:55.to the single market. Nicola Sturgeon is pushing the independence
:41:56. > :41:58.line as a means of kicking the British Government into looking at
:41:59. > :42:03.line as a means of kicking the Scotland's needs. Scotland will
:42:04. > :42:08.suffer the pretty badly if the Brexit deal does not look at our
:42:09. > :42:12.particular needs in economy and society. She is quite right.
:42:13. > :42:20.Unfortunately, this. Its people do not show the aim enthusiasm. Because
:42:21. > :42:22.if they showed support for independence and another referendum,
:42:23. > :42:27.then you would find that London's views would change very sharply. Do
:42:28. > :42:35.you think before you have a referendum that 55 or 60% favour in
:42:36. > :42:43.the polls is then you would need? Yes. My figure is like 55 to 60 is
:42:44. > :42:47.safer territory. Like most former politicians I am fairly
:42:48. > :42:52.opportunistic in these matters and things can change radically. At the
:42:53. > :42:56.moment, the consensus view is that we need a bit of a buffer. Do not
:42:57. > :43:01.forget that we are living in tremulous times with the UK pulling
:43:02. > :43:06.out of the European Union. That is both a plus and a minus factor and
:43:07. > :43:11.there are the Scottish economy declining in the last couple of
:43:12. > :43:15.years because of the drop in oil revenues and oil activity affecting
:43:16. > :43:19.jobs. It is not the best of time, but on other hand there are
:43:20. > :43:21.challenges and there are opportunities. One must keep their
:43:22. > :43:28.mind open. You would like a longer opportunities. One must keep their
:43:29. > :43:32.term campaign for independence, not a referendum necessarily. But that
:43:33. > :43:36.to one side. For independence. That campaign should be separated out
:43:37. > :43:43.from the SNP Government, wouldn't you? I think the thing that the SNP
:43:44. > :43:49.has to keep in mind is that the outcome of a referendum may be a
:43:50. > :43:55.vote on it's popularity. The success of the 2014 independence referendum,
:43:56. > :44:00.there was a way in which it brought together all sorts of people out of
:44:01. > :44:05.the dark so to speak and into the political arena. New enthusiasms.
:44:06. > :44:11.They still exist, although I suspect a lot of the phase has gone out of
:44:12. > :44:15.the bottle since. We have to get them together to get the argument as
:44:16. > :44:19.to why Scotland needs independence and so that they consider you to
:44:20. > :44:25.their friends and family and neighbours. Also, the work has to be
:44:26. > :44:28.done. My experience as a member of Parliament for 13 years was I had
:44:29. > :44:33.been naive view of being elected that I had plenty of finding thing.
:44:34. > :44:44.In actual fact, I was on a treadmill had no time to think will stop --
:44:45. > :44:46.plenty of time to think. The running of the management was subcontracted
:44:47. > :45:00.by the SNP. Image of a priority to the question
:45:01. > :45:05.of independence itself. It should be stressed that a referendum is only a
:45:06. > :45:09.means to an end. It is not meant to itself. The end must be independence
:45:10. > :45:15.for the point of view of the nationalist community. We have got
:45:16. > :45:19.to prepare the ground so that people are persuaded that the best possible
:45:20. > :45:27.thing for Scotland in the long run and the middle term is to attain
:45:28. > :45:32.independence. By definition that would involve bringing in other
:45:33. > :45:36.people out of the SNP. One of the reason I am asking you this is that
:45:37. > :45:39.I will be talking later in this programme to Patrick Harvie, the
:45:40. > :45:43.leader of the Scottish Greens. I don't know what he will save, but I
:45:44. > :45:48.know there is a feeling amongst some who are in favour of the
:45:49. > :45:52.independence but are not in the SNP, but they are being a bit patronised
:45:53. > :46:07.and being left out. You might have a solution to that? Yes. I don't
:46:08. > :46:14.think... I have relaxed with the years. There is an example, in the
:46:15. > :46:18.early 70s there was a body called radio free Scotland which was
:46:19. > :46:24.separate from the SNP, but worked alongside it and produced the
:46:25. > :46:25.message. I would think that we don't need to separate bodies, but we
:46:26. > :46:31.message. I would think that we don't need the S and the governing
:46:32. > :46:38.Scotland and giving a good there. -- the S NP governing Scotland. Also
:46:39. > :46:43.the economic and social case for independence. That is where we need
:46:44. > :46:48.to take the voices of other people including people like Patrick Harvie
:46:49. > :46:52.and the Greens. Including many others in various organisations
:46:53. > :46:57.which mushroomed during the referendum. They are still there.
:46:58. > :47:01.They should still be consulted and that should be a strength that that
:47:02. > :47:04.should be. We have to be careful about that because too much
:47:05. > :47:11.independence and that point of view should cause anarchy. There has to
:47:12. > :47:17.be some guidance. The SNP should not be heavy-handed. You said in a radio
:47:18. > :47:21.interview that we did that was broadcast earlier that there was
:47:22. > :47:24.home to be done. We talked a bit about the deficit that Scotland
:47:25. > :47:29.might have should it become independent. I should apologise, I
:47:30. > :47:37.said it was 15% of GDP. It is axing 15 million pounds, it is 10% of GDP.
:47:38. > :47:41.A very big number still. We should talk about how the Scottish
:47:42. > :47:45.Government should head of those objections and have a more balanced
:47:46. > :47:52.budget. I know that you think that the figures don't reflect the state
:47:53. > :47:55.of the Scottish economy. Is woke in that interview that these civil
:47:56. > :48:00.service might be cut back. That is a tiny amount of money, isn't it? The
:48:01. > :48:07.civil service contributes quite a bit of money in itself. The main
:48:08. > :48:11.problem I have with the civil service from experience and looking
:48:12. > :48:16.at it latterly is that it is not all that efficient. I would say that an
:48:17. > :48:22.efficiency drive within the civil service itself, including a drop in
:48:23. > :48:28.numbers, would be desirable, whether or not you had for independence. It
:48:29. > :48:34.is also a bad thing to exist solely on 1's for services. The point I was
:48:35. > :48:37.making was that it may or may not be a good thing to have more efficiency
:48:38. > :48:42.in this double service, but it might not address the deficit problem. It
:48:43. > :48:45.is such a small amount of public spending on the civil service. What
:48:46. > :48:50.people don't realise is that when you take the figures that is the
:48:51. > :48:57.estimate of Scotland boss might budget, which is based upon the fact
:48:58. > :49:03.that the money that is allocated to Scotland is not spent in Scotland.
:49:04. > :49:07.Foreign service, defence, Social Security. Some of it of course is
:49:08. > :49:11.spent in Scotland. There are things that are excluded. What we don't
:49:12. > :49:17.have at the moment is a Scottish budget. I think that Scotland should
:49:18. > :49:22.re-fashion it's budget to suit the realities of independent Scotland.
:49:23. > :49:27.We are not a cutdown party. One more thing I want to do ask you about
:49:28. > :49:32.briefly. At the Lee Mack one point you made earlier was that you said
:49:33. > :49:36.briefly. At the Lee Mack one point that support for independence was
:49:37. > :49:43.27% at the beginning of the referendum campaign on one of your
:49:44. > :49:45.points was that why was it only 27% after seven years of SNP Government.
:49:46. > :49:51.What is your answer to that question that you raise? The reason is fairly
:49:52. > :49:55.simple. The SNP had been preparing for Government over a period of
:49:56. > :50:00.years and in fact, it's way of looking at independence was that it
:50:01. > :50:11.became a Scottish referendum party and then surprisingly found itself a
:50:12. > :50:19.nobility with able to deliver. Most of the gone into the thought of
:50:20. > :50:24.independence and too much money had gone into Government. If your other
:50:25. > :50:30.objective and is independence, then that is exactly. That is exactly the
:50:31. > :50:35.point I'm making for the future. There should be a longer term
:50:36. > :50:38.established in and protection for the case for independence so we
:50:39. > :50:45.don't make the mistake of the 27% as in 2014.
:50:46. > :50:50.As the delegates leave the Scottish Greens conference
:50:51. > :50:52.in Perth this afternoon they'll surely be musing on the party's
:50:53. > :50:55.While supporting the SNP's key objective of independence,
:50:56. > :50:58.they've also committed to finding new ways to wring concessions
:50:59. > :51:10.Relatively small in number, they have six MSPs, the Scottish Green
:51:11. > :51:14.Party are not strangers for fighting to causes close to their hearts.
:51:15. > :51:17.They made a stand on council tax and fracking and then there is the
:51:18. > :51:23.Scottish Government 's backing of a third runway at Heathrow and a cut
:51:24. > :51:25.in air passenger duty, moves which Patrick Harvie described as
:51:26. > :51:28.unthinkable. With the Scottish Greens the only Scottish party in
:51:29. > :51:36.unthinkable. With the Scottish favour of independence they should
:51:37. > :51:41.be in a strong position to win concessions. We would like to see
:51:42. > :51:45.the SNP standing their ground on being progressive, as they claim to
:51:46. > :51:48.be, to get in in previous governments. They have said some
:51:49. > :51:51.good words and done a few good things but there are areas where we
:51:52. > :51:55.need to keep holding their feet to the fire and that is what we will
:51:56. > :52:00.do. There are other policies where we will try a nudge the SNP in the
:52:01. > :52:07.right direction, the progressive direction, away from looking after
:52:08. > :52:09.big business which is tempting for them. Good Green Party support in
:52:10. > :52:10.parliament be conditional? Personally I would put it that way
:52:11. > :52:14.parliament be conditional? but whether that will be party
:52:15. > :52:19.policy I can't comment because I am not involved in that but from a
:52:20. > :52:21.personal point of view I would like to see conditions. The Patrick
:52:22. > :52:25.Harvie message to the SNP is to commit to meaningful progress of
:52:26. > :52:28.changes and you would get our support, failed to commit and you
:52:29. > :52:29.risk being remembered as a timid government.
:52:30. > :52:31.Well, joining me outside his party's conference in Perth
:52:32. > :52:38.is the Scottish Green's co-convener Patrick Harvie.
:52:39. > :52:46.I was going to say how blessed you are being in the fair city but it
:52:47. > :52:51.appears to be raining! Well, we have had mixed weather in Perth, to be
:52:52. > :52:54.fair, but there has been a very good atmosphere inside the conference,
:52:55. > :52:58.not only as we celebrate the election of our additional MSPs in
:52:59. > :53:02.the most recent Holyrood election but prepare as well for the local
:53:03. > :53:05.elections next year where we will be fielding the biggest number of
:53:06. > :53:08.candidates ever and with the capacity we have grown across the
:53:09. > :53:13.country to get out and campaign on a scale that has been lacking in the
:53:14. > :53:21.past so we are really optimistic about the achievement of getting
:53:22. > :53:23.more councillors elected right about the achievement of getting
:53:24. > :53:25.across Scotland. Can I get your view on something that Gordon Wilson was
:53:26. > :53:28.talking about there, where he is keen on the idea of separating a
:53:29. > :53:32.campaign for independence from the SNP running the Scottish Government
:53:33. > :53:35.and he talked about having perhaps initially a think tank, something
:53:36. > :53:38.that is independent of the SNP, which would involve people like
:53:39. > :53:44.yourselves. Presumably you would welcome that. I would welcome a kind
:53:45. > :53:49.of development. One of the challenge is to get over in that is how you
:53:50. > :53:54.would ensure that the multiple arguments, the many cases on
:53:55. > :53:58.independence would be heard within that, rather than just one dominant
:53:59. > :54:05.voice. That was one of the problems of the 2014 campaign which we have
:54:06. > :54:08.said openly in the past. The diversity of arguments about what an
:54:09. > :54:14.independent Scotland could be light is one of the strengths and a
:54:15. > :54:16.democratic system. We should be celebrating diversity arguments as a
:54:17. > :54:21.strength in our culture, not regarding it as a weakness. There
:54:22. > :54:26.are different arguments to be made about what kind of policies or
:54:27. > :54:30.directions or economic futures the idea of an independent Scotland
:54:31. > :54:34.could encompass. Just look at the question of oil and gas. We have
:54:35. > :54:38.been arguing consistently that investment in a sustainable and
:54:39. > :54:43.long-term economy that can provide jobs that last for the long-term is
:54:44. > :54:47.an urgent priority, instead of just pretending Matfield is coming to the
:54:48. > :54:51.end of their lives will somehow lost for ever. That is not realistic.
:54:52. > :54:55.end of their lives will somehow lost With your extra MSPs, which you were
:54:56. > :54:59.very quick to mention, the Scottish Greens have an incredibly powerful
:55:00. > :55:03.position in this Parliament. You have been talking at this conference
:55:04. > :55:08.about how your support for the SNP budget would be conditional on
:55:09. > :55:11.various things like fracking and air passenger duty but it is not the
:55:12. > :55:15.real power you have. The real power you have is that they cannot have
:55:16. > :55:23.another independence referendum unless you back them. I think it
:55:24. > :55:28.would be quite wrong for any political party to use the fact of
:55:29. > :55:32.minority government as something to start playing games like that. I am
:55:33. > :55:37.not going to trade off our support for a policy that we agree with in
:55:38. > :55:40.exchange for completely different issues. The case needs to be
:55:41. > :55:45.strengthened for independence, and I would agree with Gordon Wilson on
:55:46. > :55:51.that point although I do not think I would agree with all the arguments
:55:52. > :55:54.he might want to put, but the case needs to be strengthened.
:55:55. > :56:03.Fundamentally this is a conflict between two referendum results. Let
:56:04. > :56:08.us come that a moment. The real power you have is that you can say
:56:09. > :56:13.to the SNP government, if you abolish air passenger duty we won't
:56:14. > :56:17.vote for a seven part around -- separate referendum. If you don't
:56:18. > :56:20.abolish fracking we won't vote for a separate referendum. I've always
:56:21. > :56:24.understood that independence for you as a more tactical thing and it is
:56:25. > :56:29.not your obsession but it is a way of getting the green policies you
:56:30. > :56:31.want, so why subordinate the green policies you want and turn
:56:32. > :56:38.independence into some kind of principal? The idea of Scotland
:56:39. > :56:44.becoming independent is absolutely a means to an end, and means of
:56:45. > :56:48.achieving the Sarah Scotland we would be more able to deliver with
:56:49. > :56:56.the powers of independence. It is not a bargaining chip. Why not?
:56:57. > :57:02.Because I think it would be at Tiley unethical way to do politics. We
:57:03. > :57:06.will argue the case on fracking, as we have done, and pushed the
:57:07. > :57:10.Scottish Government to add underground gas to that moratoria
:57:11. > :57:13.manned ban it altogether but I am confident that working alongside all
:57:14. > :57:18.of those who support a ban on fracking we will achieve that. The
:57:19. > :57:22.Tories piping up and say how brilliant fracking would-be helps to
:57:23. > :57:26.make our case for that. On the budget we are going to argue for
:57:27. > :57:29.progressive taxation and make sure that we can protect the public
:57:30. > :57:35.services that we need to value in Scotland. Why would you block their
:57:36. > :57:38.budget but not their referendum? It is on the referendum that you have
:57:39. > :57:43.the power. Unless they give in to what you want they simply can't have
:57:44. > :57:46.it. You have immense leadership when it comes to the referendum. They
:57:47. > :57:49.will find people in other parties it comes to the referendum. They
:57:50. > :57:55.support them on their budget but only you can deliver their
:57:56. > :57:59.referendum. I think it remains to be seen whether they find more support
:58:00. > :58:02.on the budget and a new Finance secretary will have to give some
:58:03. > :58:06.ground from the SNP 's manifesto position if he wants to persuade
:58:07. > :58:12.others to support the budget. The idea that we would drop a policy
:58:13. > :58:13.that we support, the idea of supporting independence or putting
:58:14. > :58:18.that we support, the idea of that to the electorate on the basis
:58:19. > :58:22.of a grubby deal about other issues, I don't think that would be
:58:23. > :58:26.principle that all. But we have a pro-conflict between the way
:58:27. > :58:29.Scotland voted in 2014 and 2016. I know and respect that not everyone
:58:30. > :58:33.who voted remain this year will suddenly want to switch and --
:58:34. > :58:38.support independence but we have to respect the fact that not everyone
:58:39. > :58:42.who voted no in 2014 is willing to sit Scotland dragged out of Europe
:58:43. > :58:45.against our will, surrendering rights, having rights taken away
:58:46. > :58:52.from people that we did not vote to surrender. 62% of us voted to remain
:58:53. > :58:56.in that mandate is being utterly disregarded by the UK Government and
:58:57. > :58:59.I think the case is strong that the people of Scotland to need at least
:59:00. > :59:03.the possibility of having that question put to them so that they
:59:04. > :59:08.can resolve that conflict in the only way that is legitimate, a
:59:09. > :59:11.democratic process, and the vote of all people, including the people who
:59:12. > :59:16.were denied a vote in the EU referendum and EU nationals whose
:59:17. > :59:22.lives are in turmoil as a result of that. Isn't your argument there from
:59:23. > :59:25.a democratic point of view a bit iffy? To say that somehow or other a
:59:26. > :59:29.a democratic point of view a bit pretty clear referendum vote that
:59:30. > :59:34.was made two years ago is now cast into doubt? It is patronising to the
:59:35. > :59:38.people of Scotland. Many people who voted no will say, I'm sorry, we
:59:39. > :59:42.understood perfectly well what we voted for, we want to be part of the
:59:43. > :59:46.United Kingdom and for you to start claiming that somehow we didn't know
:59:47. > :59:52.what we were doing and therefore we have to vote again, sorry, we are
:59:53. > :59:56.not having it. I don't think for a moment that people didn't know what
:59:57. > :00:00.they were doing. We had a long and engaging debate in the long run up
:00:01. > :00:06.to that campaign but the reality is if you voted no and then you voted
:00:07. > :00:10.remain, you are not going to get what you want. We have to resolve
:00:11. > :00:14.this fundamental conflict and there will be many people who voted no who
:00:15. > :00:18.are willing to leave the European Union, but there are also people who
:00:19. > :00:23.voted no who believed better together when they said that VoIP --
:00:24. > :00:26.voting yes would put our future in Europe at rest and voting there
:00:27. > :00:31.would safeguard it. That was a piece of nonsense as many of the lies of
:00:32. > :00:36.the league campaign this year were shown to be utterly spurious
:00:37. > :00:39.nonsense is oh there is a real conflict, fundamental conflict,
:00:40. > :00:43.between the results of the way people in Scotland voted in these
:00:44. > :00:47.two referendums. Your argument might have some credibility if there had
:00:48. > :00:51.been a big upsurge in the polls in favour of either having a second
:00:52. > :00:59.referendum or voted for independence, but there hasn't been,
:01:00. > :01:01.so a lot of people in Scotland will say, thank you very much for
:01:02. > :01:04.sympathising with our alleged democratic deficit that you are just
:01:05. > :01:20.making this up and we are not interested. I think the polls are
:01:21. > :01:24.showing there has been movement in real directions. The UK Government
:01:25. > :01:28.are taking a 52% result across the UK and turning it into a mandate for
:01:29. > :01:33.Art Brexit and taking us out not only of the European Union itself
:01:34. > :01:36.but also out of the single market with all the economic consequences
:01:37. > :01:41.that will have four people's jobs and incomes and coal industries. We
:01:42. > :01:44.have just been speaking to some of the higher education sector in
:01:45. > :01:49.Scotland here at the conference who are deeply concerned about the level
:01:50. > :01:59.of interest from EU students coming to study here and their ability to
:02:00. > :02:00.cooperate and collaborate with higher education institutions in
:02:01. > :02:02.terms of research grants and funding. Scotland has made a
:02:03. > :02:05.fantastic contribution to a lot of those projects and that kind of
:02:06. > :02:08.thing is being put at risk and as people see the consequences of that
:02:09. > :02:11.hard Brexit, of Liam Fox and Boris Johnson and others who have no
:02:12. > :02:16.regard at all for the way Scotland voted, that is what they have been
:02:17. > :02:20.aiming for and we will reject that. Going back to the beginning of this
:02:21. > :02:24.conversation, there seems to be an acceptance within the SNP that some
:02:25. > :02:27.aspects for the prospectus of independence, including the
:02:28. > :02:32.currency, were not really convincing enough. We have had the collapse in
:02:33. > :02:36.oil prices and the risk of a large deficit in Scotland. Everyone is
:02:37. > :02:40.saying these issues must be addressed but the problem seems to
:02:41. > :02:45.be that they are not, as a matter of fact being addressed, are they? We
:02:46. > :02:48.are not getting answers. Well, the Scottish Green Party I think are the
:02:49. > :02:53.only party who made any credible effort to suggest a credible
:02:54. > :02:56.economic path of Scotland that ends our reliance on fossil fuels but
:02:57. > :03:00.invest in economies and industries that will create the jobs that
:03:01. > :03:06.communities, particularly those most reliant on fossil fuels, they need
:03:07. > :03:11.to see a positive future rather than, as with previous ways of
:03:12. > :03:14.deindustrialisation, people being left on the economic scrapheap. We
:03:15. > :03:16.are also trying to do work and we will continue that this year on the
:03:17. > :03:19.are also trying to do work and we alternatives of currency but the
:03:20. > :03:23.idea of a currency union with a non-EU member state, if we were to
:03:24. > :03:28.become independent and seek to be a full EU member, I think that is even
:03:29. > :03:36.more problematic than it was in 2014 so I am glad there is some
:03:37. > :03:39.willingness to start finally looking at laying the groundwork for the
:03:40. > :03:42.other options that need to be made credible and need to be made
:03:43. > :03:43.realistic options for Scotland. We have to leave it there. Thank you
:03:44. > :03:51.very much. Russian warships have been
:03:52. > :03:53.in the English Channel this week, in what some have seen
:03:54. > :03:56.as a display of power. But Russia is also interested
:03:57. > :03:58.in getting its world view So we've seen an expansion
:03:59. > :04:02.in so called "soft power" too, with new state controlled media
:04:03. > :04:03.outlets broadcasting And there've been reports
:04:04. > :04:07.in the past few days that something called Pravda International,
:04:08. > :04:09.apparently a successor to the once-powerful
:04:10. > :04:21.Communist newspaper, Pravda was once the voice of the
:04:22. > :04:23.Soviet Communist Party. If you read it in Tempra temperament grow one,
:04:24. > :04:29.you knew it was what they were thinking in the Kremlin, probably.
:04:30. > :04:32.If it was in Pravda, you knew that is what they wanted you to think
:04:33. > :04:38.they were thinking in the Kremlin but what they were thinking could
:04:39. > :04:44.sometimes be slightly different. But the break-up of the Soviet Union
:04:45. > :04:48.changed everything for everyone, and for Pravda. Pravda failed to appear
:04:49. > :04:56.today for the first time since the 1917 revolution. It was split into
:04:57. > :05:00.two. There was a Pravda newspaper publication and also an online
:05:01. > :05:03.Pravda and there was a dispute about who earned the name and there was a
:05:04. > :05:08.court case and the court said that both entities could coexist.
:05:09. > :05:12.Sputnik, funded by the Russian government recently set up in
:05:13. > :05:17.Edinburgh, so it didn't seem too surprising when it was reported that
:05:18. > :05:20.a new version of Pravda, Pravda International was also going to
:05:21. > :05:26.establish a newsroom in the capital. There is a clear emphasis on
:05:27. > :05:28.presenting the Russian viewpoint and the Russian perspective so they
:05:29. > :05:31.presenting the Russian viewpoint and invested heavily in foreign news,
:05:32. > :05:35.Sputnik publishes its languages in Sputnik publishes its languages in
:05:36. > :05:39.-- articles on a number of languages which is all part of sending out
:05:40. > :05:43.messages and getting the Russian message across and most people refer
:05:44. > :05:48.to that as Russian soft power. Was it true? One of the first things
:05:49. > :05:51.that struck me was no one was talking about in the Russian media.
:05:52. > :05:57.This story got coverage in the Scottish media but it also got her a
:05:58. > :06:01.little bit of attention down south in the Guardian and the times. The
:06:02. > :06:05.Russian media normally pays quite close interest in what is happening
:06:06. > :06:11.in England and the rest of the UK and so it was quite strange they
:06:12. > :06:15.hadn't picked up on it. Trying to check out the details, starting with
:06:16. > :06:20.the Pravda International website and it gets order and order. When I went
:06:21. > :06:25.on to that website I found there were a lot of Hollywood celebrities
:06:26. > :06:28.reading a Russian newspaper but it was not Pravda, it was an obscure
:06:29. > :06:32.but eventually newspaper and there was an interesting story behind it.
:06:33. > :06:35.These photos were real but I thought they might have been photo shopped,
:06:36. > :06:39.but they were real and they were taken by a Hollywood producer and
:06:40. > :06:45.his wife who happen to come from a root skewer little town and they had
:06:46. > :06:48.done it has a weird publicity stunt. The photos were real but why they
:06:49. > :06:51.were on the website of Pravda International was strange and it set
:06:52. > :06:59.my mind thinking that it looks like a bit of a hoax.
:07:00. > :07:04.And let this story that is nothing more than smoke and mirrors?
:07:05. > :07:11.Brothers say it is nothing to do do with them. Neither do the people
:07:12. > :07:20.that we have been able to trace who are linked to Pravda International.
:07:21. > :07:25.More recently, the spat between the Russian international and the bank.
:07:26. > :07:32.Some people have interpreted this as a attempt to silence Russian
:07:33. > :07:39.opinion. This could potentially be a way for people to say it is not that
:07:40. > :07:44.easy to quieten Russian opinion. There remains a possibility that
:07:45. > :07:48.just perhaps there is some proof behind this story. It could not and
:07:49. > :07:54.it still cannot completely be ruled out that there is a genuine
:07:55. > :08:00.initiative here from people connected to the Pravda brand. It
:08:01. > :08:05.seems unlikely. There is an old Soviet joke. There are two main
:08:06. > :08:10.newspapers in the Soviet Union. There is one that means news and one
:08:11. > :08:15.that means truth. Soviet citizens is to say that there is no truth in one
:08:16. > :08:18.and no news in the other. Time now for a look
:08:19. > :08:26.at the week ahead. I'm joined now by political
:08:27. > :08:30.commentator Hamish Macdonell and Jenni Davidson of Holyrood
:08:31. > :08:43.Magazine. Let us start by looking ahead. This
:08:44. > :08:47.meeting tomorrow with Nicola Sturgeon and the other nations of
:08:48. > :08:52.the UK, including Theresa May. What we expect to happen? For the first
:08:53. > :08:56.time, it is no exaggeration to say these are crunch talks. They are
:08:57. > :09:05.very important. The opportunity that Nicola Sturgeon has two sets of the
:09:06. > :09:12.Scottish view to Theresa May. We cannot expect anything to come from
:09:13. > :09:19.it. We know where the British Government sands. It really is an
:09:20. > :09:23.occasion for both sides to get into a room together and know where they
:09:24. > :09:26.are come out and say we had a decent discussion but more talks will have
:09:27. > :09:35.to take place. Do you think these talks are five able to be fudged in
:09:36. > :09:38.any way? It is quite difficult. If they had been more moderate and how
:09:39. > :09:42.they put forward their positions, then that might have been the case.
:09:43. > :09:47.Now Nicola Sturgeon has any set a red line in terms of what she wants.
:09:48. > :09:51.Or else, it is another independence referendum. Because Theresa May and
:09:52. > :09:56.David Davis have both said they are not giving this, then that is very
:09:57. > :09:59.difficult to back down from. I am not sure how they are going to go
:10:00. > :10:08.into negotiations from this point well they have 07 what they want.
:10:09. > :10:14.There are possibilities other not? I have counted three different things.
:10:15. > :10:19.One, there has been talk that the British Government might pay into
:10:20. > :10:22.the budget if they can have the passport in rights for financial
:10:23. > :10:31.services. This means that banks will not have the setup in London and do
:10:32. > :10:34.business all across Europe. There is allsorts of talk for special
:10:35. > :10:36.provisions for Northern Ireland because of the border with the
:10:37. > :10:46.Republic. There has also been talk after the meeting Theresa May had
:10:47. > :10:52.after the owner of Mr -- Nissan. That may be that it could be paid
:10:53. > :10:57.into the car budget. There is a bit of grit therefore Nicola Sturgeon to
:10:58. > :11:01.get into their and say there is not much difference between this and
:11:02. > :11:03.what we are saying about Scotland. Yes, there would be if Nicola
:11:04. > :11:10.Sturgeon had not been so strong about the position she had taken.
:11:11. > :11:14.She says that she wants access to the singer market, full protection
:11:15. > :11:24.for Scottish residents and free movement of labour. If we just think
:11:25. > :11:25.for a second that these are two friendly sides want to reach a
:11:26. > :11:31.copper mines, then a comprised could friendly sides want to reach a
:11:32. > :11:37.be reached. We might not have Scotland in the single market, but
:11:38. > :11:41.we might have it more in it than other parts of the UK. If we were
:11:42. > :11:46.talking about two Unionist administrations then perhaps we
:11:47. > :11:50.could be. But we're talking about a Scottish Government that have the
:11:51. > :11:58.dark hour red line issues and if we do not get them they are our red
:11:59. > :12:02.line issues. If it does not deliver those things, Nicola Sturgeon has no
:12:03. > :12:07.choice but to go to the people game because she has said that that is
:12:08. > :12:16.what she will do. Do you agree with that? Isn't there some room? I do
:12:17. > :12:19.yeah. Of course that I was making maximum demands because that is the
:12:20. > :12:24.sensible thing to do when you start a negotiation. She could say I have
:12:25. > :12:29.got this and that but it is not exact what we have asked for but you
:12:30. > :12:33.can't always got what you want. I agree with Hamish. It was a
:12:34. > :12:36.different party, a Unionist party, she could say this is my starting
:12:37. > :12:46.point for negotiations. Something less is OK. Because she did -- is
:12:47. > :12:56.already under parties pressure to deliver a second referendum, then
:12:57. > :12:59.she cannot back down if you does not get what she wants. It will be
:13:00. > :13:10.difficult. She gathers and off, but she has to deliver. That track she
:13:11. > :13:16.can put it off. She will be saying thanks for nothing, mate. Gordon
:13:17. > :13:22.Wilson represents an important strand. He says: also let us not
:13:23. > :13:27.rush into this. I was at the SNP conference a week or two ago. A few
:13:28. > :13:33.people said that if we get this wrong and rush into this then we are
:13:34. > :13:38.finished. That is the line Gordon Wilson are saying. Let us not rush
:13:39. > :13:41.into this. Take the time and make sure we get it right. If we get that
:13:42. > :13:43.wrong then it will be finished. Thank you very much.
:13:44. > :13:48.I'll be back at the same time next week.