:00:39. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.Theresa May will be the first foreign leader to visit US
:00:45. > :00:47.President Donald Trump this week - she's promised to hold "very
:00:48. > :00:50.frank" conversations with the new and controversial
:00:51. > :00:57.Speaking of the 45th President of America,
:00:58. > :01:00.we'll be looking at what the Trump presidency could hold
:01:01. > :01:06.in store for Britain and the rest of the world.
:01:07. > :01:09.And with the Supreme Court expected to say that Parliament should
:01:10. > :01:12.have a vote before the Brexit process begins, we'll ask
:01:13. > :01:18.Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott what Labour will do next.
:01:19. > :01:20.And on Sunday Politics Scotland, the Brexit Minister, Mike Russell,
:01:21. > :01:22.says SNP MPs would vote against the triggering of Article 50
:01:23. > :01:40.And to talk about all of that and more, I'm joined by three
:01:41. > :01:42.journalists who, in an era of so-called fake news, can be
:01:43. > :01:46.relied upon for their accuracy, their impartiality -
:01:47. > :01:49.and their willingness to come to the studio
:01:50. > :01:55.It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer
:01:56. > :02:02.and Tom Newton Dunn, and during the programme they'll be
:02:03. > :02:05.tweeting as often as the 45th President of the USA in the middle
:02:06. > :02:16.So - the Prime Minister has been appearing on the BBC this morning.
:02:17. > :02:18.She was mostly talking about Donald Trump and Brexit,
:02:19. > :02:21.but she was also asked about a story on the front of this
:02:22. > :02:25.It's reported that an unarmed Trident missile test fired
:02:26. > :02:31.from the submarine HMS Vengeance near the Florida coast in June
:02:32. > :02:39.The paper says the incident took place weeks before a crucial Commons
:02:40. > :02:43.Well, let's have listen to Theresa May talking
:02:44. > :02:49.The issue that we were talking about in the House of Commons
:02:50. > :02:53.It was about whether or not we should renew Trident,
:02:54. > :02:56.whether we should look to the future and have a replacement Trident.
:02:57. > :02:59.That's what we were talking about in the House of Commons.
:03:00. > :03:01.That's what the House of Commons voted for.
:03:02. > :03:06.He doesn't want to defend our country with an independent
:03:07. > :03:14.There are tests that take place all the time, regularly,
:03:15. > :03:22.What we were talking about in that debate that took place...
:03:23. > :03:29.I'm not going to get an answer to this.
:03:30. > :03:36.Tom, it was clear this was going to come up this morning. It is on the
:03:37. > :03:40.front page of the Sunday Times. It would seem to me the Prime Minister
:03:41. > :03:47.wasn't properly briefed on how to reply. I think she probably was, but
:03:48. > :03:50.the Prime Minister we now have doesn't necessarily answer all
:03:51. > :03:58.questions in the straightest way. She didn't answer that one and all.
:03:59. > :04:05.Unlike previous ones? She made it quite clear she was briefed. You
:04:06. > :04:10.read between the Theresa May lines. By simply not answering Andrew Marr
:04:11. > :04:13.four times, it is obvious she knew, and that she knew before she went
:04:14. > :04:20.into the House of Commons and urged everyone to renew the ?40 billion
:04:21. > :04:23.replacement programme. Of course it is an embarrassment, but does it
:04:24. > :04:29.have political legs? I don't think so. She didn't mislead the Commons.
:04:30. > :04:35.If she wanted to close it down, the answer should have been, these are
:04:36. > :04:38.matters of national security. There's nothing more important in
:04:39. > :04:45.that than our nuclear deterrent. I'm not prepared to talk about testing.
:04:46. > :04:50.End of. But she didn't. Maybe you should be briefing her. That's a
:04:51. > :04:55.good answer. She is an interesting interviewee. She shows it when she
:04:56. > :04:59.is nervous. She was transparently uneasy answering those questions,
:05:00. > :05:05.and the fact she didn't answer it definitively suggests she did know
:05:06. > :05:09.and didn't want to say it, and she answered awkwardly. But how wider
:05:10. > :05:14.point, that the House of Commons voted for the renewal of Trident,
:05:15. > :05:19.suggests to me that in the broader sweep of things, this will not run,
:05:20. > :05:25.because if there was another vote, I would suggest she'd win it again.
:05:26. > :05:30.But it is an embarrassment and she handled it with a transparent
:05:31. > :05:36.awkwardness. She said that the tests go on all the time, but not of the
:05:37. > :05:40.missiles. Does it not show that when the Prime Minister leaves her
:05:41. > :05:45.comfort zone of Home Office affairs or related matters, she often
:05:46. > :05:52.struggles. We've seen it under questioning from Mr Corbyn even, and
:05:53. > :05:55.we saw it again today. Absolutely. Tests of various aspects of the
:05:56. > :06:01.missiles go on all the time, but there's only been five since 2000.
:06:02. > :06:05.What you described wouldn't have worked, because in previous tests
:06:06. > :06:13.they have always been very public about it. Look how well our missiles
:06:14. > :06:21.work! She may not have misled Parliament, but she may not have
:06:22. > :06:25.known about it. If she didn't know, does Michael Fallon still have a job
:06:26. > :06:32.on Monday? Should Parliament know about a test that doesn't work? Some
:06:33. > :06:38.would say absolutely not. Our deterrent is there to deter people
:06:39. > :06:43.from attacking us. If they know that we are hitting the United States by
:06:44. > :06:48.mistake rather than the Atlantic Ocean, then... There is such a thing
:06:49. > :06:53.as national security, and telling all the bad guys about where we are
:06:54. > :06:57.going wrong may not be a good idea. It was her first statement as Prime
:06:58. > :07:03.Minister to put her case for renewal, to have the vote on
:07:04. > :07:07.Trident, and in that context, it is significant not to say anything. If
:07:08. > :07:10.anyone knows where the missile landed, give us a call!
:07:11. > :07:13.So Donald Trump's inauguration day closed with him dancing
:07:14. > :07:15.to Frank Sinatra's My Way, and whatever your view on the 45th
:07:16. > :07:18.President of the United States he certainly did do it his way.
:07:19. > :07:21.Not for him the idealistic call for national unity -
:07:22. > :07:23.instead he used Friday's inaugural address to launch a blistering
:07:24. > :07:27.attack on the dark state of the nation and the political
:07:28. > :07:31.class, and to promise to take his uncompromising approach
:07:32. > :07:35.from the campaign trail to the White House.
:07:36. > :07:39.Here's Adam Fleming, with a reminder of how
:07:40. > :07:47.First, dropping by for a cup of tea and a slightly awkward exchange
:07:48. > :07:56.Then, friends, foes and predecessors watched
:07:57. > :08:03.I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear...
:08:04. > :08:07.The crowds seemed smaller than previous inaugurations,
:08:08. > :08:12.the speech tougher then any previous incoming president.
:08:13. > :08:19.From this day forth, it's going to be only America first.
:08:20. > :08:44.In the meantime, there were sporadic protests in Washington, DC.
:08:45. > :08:48.Opponents made their voices heard around the world too.
:08:49. > :08:50.The President, who'd criticised the work of
:08:51. > :08:54.the intelligence agencies, fitted in a visit to the CIA.
:08:55. > :08:58.There is nobody that feels stronger about the intelligence community
:08:59. > :09:10.And, back at the office, in the dark, a signature signalled
:09:11. > :09:15.the end of the Obama era and the dawn of Trump.
:09:16. > :09:22.So, as you heard there, President Trump used his
:09:23. > :09:24.inauguration to repeat his campaign promise to put "America first"
:09:25. > :09:27.in all his decisions, and offered some hints of what to expect
:09:28. > :09:44.He talked of in America in carnage, to be rebuilt by American hands and
:09:45. > :09:48.American Labour. President Trump has already started to dismantle key
:09:49. > :09:52.parts of the Obama Legacy, including the unwinding of the affordable care
:09:53. > :09:58.act, and the siding of the climate action plan to tackle global
:09:59. > :10:02.warning. Little to say about foreign policy, but promised to eradicate
:10:03. > :10:07.Islamic terrorism from the face of the Earth, insisting he would
:10:08. > :10:13.restore the US military to unquestioning dominance. He also
:10:14. > :10:17.said the US would develop a state missile defence system to deal with
:10:18. > :10:22.threats he sees from Iran and North Korea. In a statement that painted a
:10:23. > :10:27.bleak picture of the country he now runs, he said his would be a law and
:10:28. > :10:33.order Administration, and he would keep the innocents safe by building
:10:34. > :10:38.the border war with Mexico. One thing he didn't mention, for the
:10:39. > :10:41.first time ever, there is a Eurosceptic in the oval office, who
:10:42. > :10:44.is also an enthusiast for Brexit. We're joined now by Ted Malloch -
:10:45. > :10:47.he's a Trump supporter who's been tipped as the president's
:10:48. > :10:49.choice for US ambassador to the EU, and he's
:10:50. > :10:51.just flown back from Washington. And by James Rubin -
:10:52. > :11:03.he's a democrat who served Let's start with that last point I
:11:04. > :11:10.made in the voice over there. We now have a Eurosceptic in the oval
:11:11. > :11:13.office. He is pro-Brexit and not keen on further European Union
:11:14. > :11:19.integration. What are the implications of that? First of all,
:11:20. > :11:24.a renewal of the US- UK special relationship. You see the Prime
:11:25. > :11:28.Minister already going to build and rebuild this relationship. Already,
:11:29. > :11:33.the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the oval office.
:11:34. > :11:38.Interestingly, Martin Luther King's bust is also there, so there is an
:11:39. > :11:44.act of unity in that first movement of dusts. Donald Trump will be
:11:45. > :11:55.oriented between bilateral relationships and not multilateral
:11:56. > :12:00.or supernatural. Supranational full. What are the implications of someone
:12:01. > :12:06.in the White House now not believing in it? I think we are present in the
:12:07. > :12:10.unravelling of America's leadership of the West. There is now a thing
:12:11. > :12:18.called the west that America has led since the end of World War II,
:12:19. > :12:27.creating supranational - we just heard supernatural! These
:12:28. > :12:32.institutions were created. With American leadership, the world was
:12:33. > :12:36.at peace in Europe, and the world grew increasingly democratic and
:12:37. > :12:41.prosperous. Wars were averted that could be extremely costly. When
:12:42. > :12:45.something works in diplomacy, you don't really understand what the
:12:46. > :12:49.consequences could have been. I think we've got complacent. The new
:12:50. > :12:55.president is taking advantage of that. It is a terrible tragedy that
:12:56. > :13:00.so many in the West take for granted the successful leadership and
:13:01. > :13:08.institutions we have built. You could argue, as James Rubin has
:13:09. > :13:12.argued in some articles, that... Will Mr Trump's America be more
:13:13. > :13:20.involved in the world than the Obama won? Or will it continue the process
:13:21. > :13:26.with running shoes on that began with Mr Obama? President Obama
:13:27. > :13:32.stepped back from American leadership. He withdrew from the
:13:33. > :13:36.world. He had a horrendous eight years in office, and American powers
:13:37. > :13:41.have diminished everywhere in the world, not just in Europe. That
:13:42. > :13:46.power will reassert. The focus will be on America first, but there are
:13:47. > :13:52.foreign interests around the world... How does it reassert itself
:13:53. > :13:56.around the world? I think the institutions will be recreated. Some
:13:57. > :14:02.may be taken down. There could be some new ones. I think Nato itself,
:14:03. > :14:06.and certainly the Defence Secretary will have discussions with Donald
:14:07. > :14:10.Trump about how Nato can be reshaped, and maybe there will be
:14:11. > :14:15.more burden sharing. That is an important thing for him. You are
:14:16. > :14:19.tipped to be the US ambassador to Brussels, to the EU, and we are
:14:20. > :14:24.still waiting to hear if that will happen. Is it true to say that Mr
:14:25. > :14:34.Trump does not believe in EU integration? I think you made that
:14:35. > :14:42.clear in the speech. He talked about supranational. He does not believe
:14:43. > :14:46.in those kinds of organisations. He is investing himself in bilateral
:14:47. > :14:51.relationships, the first of which will be with the UK. So we have a
:14:52. > :14:57.president who does not believe in EU integration and has been highly
:14:58. > :15:02.critical of Nato. Do the people he has appointed to defend, Secretary
:15:03. > :15:06.of State, national security, do you think that will temper this
:15:07. > :15:14.anti-NATO wretched? Will he come round to a more pro-NATO situation?
:15:15. > :15:19.I think those of us who care about America's situation in the world
:15:20. > :15:24.will come in to miss President Obama a lot. I think the Secretary of
:15:25. > :15:29.State and the faculty of defence will limit the damage and will urge
:15:30. > :15:34.him not to take formal steps to unravel this most powerful and most
:15:35. > :15:40.successful alliance in history, the Nato alliance. But the damage is
:15:41. > :15:45.already being done. When you are the leader of the West, leadership means
:15:46. > :15:51.you are persuading, encouraging, bolstering your leadership and these
:15:52. > :15:55.institutions by the way you speak. Millions, if not hundreds of
:15:56. > :15:57.millions of people, have now heard the US say that what they care about
:15:58. > :16:06.is within their borders. What do you say to that? It is such
:16:07. > :16:16.an overstatement. The point is that Donald Trump is in a Jacksonian
:16:17. > :16:19.tradition of national populism. He is appealing to the people first.
:16:20. > :16:24.The other day, I was sitting below this page during the address, and he
:16:25. > :16:28.said, everyone sitting behind me as part of the problem. Everyone in
:16:29. > :16:32.front of me, the crowd and the crowd on television, is part of the
:16:33. > :16:37.solution, so we are giving the Government back to the people. That
:16:38. > :16:40.emphasis is going to change American life, including American
:16:41. > :16:49.International relations. It doesn't moving the leak back -- it doesn't
:16:50. > :16:54.mean we are moving out of Nato, it simply means we will put our
:16:55. > :16:57.national interests first. There were echoes of Andrew Jackson's
:16:58. > :17:03.inauguration address of 1820. That night, the Jacksonians trashed the
:17:04. > :17:06.White House, but Mr Trump's people didn't do that, so there is a
:17:07. > :17:12.difference there. He also said something else in the address - that
:17:13. > :17:19.protectionism would lead to prosperity. I would suggest there is
:17:20. > :17:25.no evidence for that in the post-war world. He talked about protecting
:17:26. > :17:27.the American worker, American jobs, the American economy. I actually
:17:28. > :17:35.think that Donald Trump will not turn out to be a protectionist. If
:17:36. > :17:41.you read the heart of the deal... This is referring to two Republican
:17:42. > :17:50.senators who introduce massive tariffs in the Hoover
:17:51. > :17:54.administration. Exactly. If you read The Art Of The Deal, you will see
:17:55. > :17:57.how Donald Trump deals with individuals and countries. There is
:17:58. > :18:04.a lot of bluster, positioning, and I think you already see this in
:18:05. > :18:08.bringing jobs by the United States. Things are going to change. Let's
:18:09. > :18:15.also deal with this proposition. China is the biggest loser of this
:18:16. > :18:22.election result. Let me say this: The first time in American history
:18:23. > :18:30.and American president has set forth his view of the world, and it is a
:18:31. > :18:34.mercantile view of the world, who makes more money, who gets more
:18:35. > :18:39.trade, it doesn't look at the shared values, leadership and defends the
:18:40. > :18:41.world needs. The art of the deal has no application to America's
:18:42. > :18:47.leadership of the world, that's what we're learning. You can be a great
:18:48. > :18:51.businessman and make great real estate deals - whether he did not is
:18:52. > :18:56.debatable - but it has nothing to do with inspiring shared values from
:18:57. > :19:00.the West. You saying China may lose, because he may pressure them to
:19:01. > :19:07.reduce their trade deficit with the US. They may or may not. We may both
:19:08. > :19:10.lose. Right now, his Secretary of State has said, and I think he will
:19:11. > :19:15.walk this back when he is brief, that they will prevent the Chinese
:19:16. > :19:19.from entering these islands in the South China Sea. If they were to do
:19:20. > :19:23.that, it would be a blockade, and there would be a shooting war
:19:24. > :19:28.between the United States and China, so US - China relations are the most
:19:29. > :19:31.important bilateral relationship of the United States, and they don't
:19:32. > :19:36.lend themselves to the bluff and bluster that may have worked when
:19:37. > :19:41.you are trying to get a big building on second Ave in Manhattan. Is China
:19:42. > :19:57.the biggest loser? I think the Chinese have a lot to lose. Gigi and
:19:58. > :20:03.Ping was in Davos this week -- Xi Jin Ping was in Davos.
:20:04. > :20:09.Is Germany the second biggest loser in the sense that I understand he
:20:10. > :20:17.hasn't agreed time to see Angela Merkel yet, also that those close to
:20:18. > :20:20.him believe that Germany is guilty of currency manipulation by adopting
:20:21. > :20:24.a weak your row instead of the strong Deutschmark, and that that is
:20:25. > :20:30.why they are running a huge balance of payments surplus with the United
:20:31. > :20:35.States. American - German relations may not be great. There is a point
:20:36. > :20:39.of view throughout Europe. You only have to talk to the southern
:20:40. > :20:43.Europeans about this question. It seems like the euro has been aligned
:20:44. > :20:49.to benefit Germany. Joe Stiglitz, the famous left of centre Democrat
:20:50. > :20:56.economist, made the same case in a recent book. In this case, I think
:20:57. > :21:00.Germany will be put under the spotlight. Angela Merkel has shown
:21:01. > :21:04.herself to be the most respected and the most successful leader in
:21:05. > :21:07.herself to be the most respected and Europe. We who care about the West,
:21:08. > :21:11.who care about the shared values of the West, should pray and hope that
:21:12. > :21:16.she is re-elected. This isn't about dollars and cents. We're living in a
:21:17. > :21:21.time whether Russian leader has another country in Europe and for
:21:22. > :21:27.some inexplicable reason, the American president, who can use his
:21:28. > :21:33.insult diplomacy on everyone, including Mrs Merkel, the only
:21:34. > :21:37.person he can't seem to find anything to criticise about is Mr
:21:38. > :21:40.Putin. There are things more important than the actual details of
:21:41. > :21:44.your currency. There are things like preventing another war in Europe,
:21:45. > :21:51.preventing a war between the Chinese and the US. You talk about the
:21:52. > :21:55.Trident missile all morning, nuclear deterrence is extremely important.
:21:56. > :21:59.It doesn't lend itself to the bluff and bluster of a real estate deal. I
:22:00. > :22:03.understand all that, but the fact we are even talking about these things
:22:04. > :22:08.shows the new world we are moving into. I'd like to get you both to
:22:09. > :22:16.react to this. This is a man that ended the Bush Dynasty, a man that
:22:17. > :22:19.beat the Clinton machine. In his inauguration, not only did he not
:22:20. > :22:24.reach out to the Democrats, he didn't even mention the Republicans.
:22:25. > :22:28.These are changed days for us. They are, and change can be good or
:22:29. > :22:33.disastrous. I'm worried that it's easy in the world of diplomacy and
:22:34. > :22:38.in them -- for the leadership of the United States to break relationships
:22:39. > :22:47.and ruin alliances. These are things that were carefully nurtured. George
:22:48. > :22:51.Schultz, the American Secretary of State under Reagan talked about
:22:52. > :22:56.gardening, the slow, careful creation of a place with bilateral
:22:57. > :22:58.relationships that were blossoming and flowering multilateral
:22:59. > :23:02.relationships that take decades to create, and he will throw them away
:23:03. > :23:08.in a matter of days. The final word... I work for George Schultz.
:23:09. > :23:12.He was a Marine who stood up America, defended America, who would
:23:13. > :23:18.be in favour of many of the things that Donald Trump and the tramp
:23:19. > :23:23.Administration... Give him a call. His top aide macs that I've spoken
:23:24. > :23:27.to are appalled by Mr Trump's abdication of leadership. He is
:23:28. > :23:35.going to our radically -- he's going to eradicate extremist Islam from
:23:36. > :23:38.the face of the year. Is that realistic? I know people in the
:23:39. > :23:42.national security realm have worked on a plan. They say they will have
:23:43. > :23:51.such a plan in some detail within 90 days. Lets hope they succeed. We
:23:52. > :23:52.have run out of time. As a issues. Thank you, both. -- fascinating
:23:53. > :23:56.issues. So Theresa May promised a big speech
:23:57. > :23:59.on Brexit, and this week - perhaps against expectation -
:24:00. > :24:01.she delivered, trying to answer claims that the government didn't
:24:02. > :24:04.have a plan with an explicit wish-list of what she hopes to
:24:05. > :24:07.achieve in negotiations with the EU. To her allies it was ambitious,
:24:08. > :24:09.bold, optimistic - to her opponents it was full
:24:10. > :24:11.of contradictions There are speeches,
:24:12. > :24:19.and there are speeches. Like Theresa May's 12 principles
:24:20. > :24:23.for a Brexit deal leading to the UK fully out of the EU
:24:24. > :24:26.but still friendly in terms This agreement should allow
:24:27. > :24:30.for the freest possible trade in goods and services between
:24:31. > :24:32.Britain and the EU's member states. It should give British
:24:33. > :24:38.companies the maximum operate within European markets
:24:39. > :24:41.and let European businesses do She also said no deal would be
:24:42. > :24:49.better than the wrong deal, We want to test what people think
:24:50. > :25:05.about what she's just said. Do we have any of our
:25:06. > :25:07.future negotiating As the European Parliament
:25:08. > :25:12.voted for its new president, its chief
:25:13. > :25:20.negotiator sounded off. Saying, OK, if our European
:25:21. > :25:22.counterparts don't accept it, we're going to make
:25:23. > :25:25.from Britain a sort of free zone or tax haven,
:25:26. > :25:27.I The Prime Minister of Malta,
:25:28. > :25:34.the country that's assumed the EU's rotating presidency,
:25:35. > :25:37.spoke in sorrow and a bit of anger. We want a fair deal
:25:38. > :25:41.for the United Kingdom, but that deal necessarily needs to be
:25:42. > :25:51.inferior to membership. Next, let's hear
:25:52. > :25:54.from some enthusiastic leavers, like, I don't
:25:55. > :25:59.know, the Daily Mail? The paper lapped it up
:26:00. > :26:02.with this adoring front page. For Brexiteers, it was
:26:03. > :26:06.all manna from heaven. I think today means we are a big
:26:07. > :26:09.step closer to becoming an independent country again,
:26:10. > :26:11.with control of our own laws, I was chuckling at some of it,
:26:12. > :26:17.to be honest, because There were various phrases there
:26:18. > :26:21.which I've used myself again and Do we have any of those
:26:22. > :26:26.so-called Remoaners? There will, at the end
:26:27. > :26:28.of this deal process, so politicians get to vote
:26:29. > :26:32.on the stitch-up, but We take the view as
:26:33. > :26:35.Liberal Democrats that if this process started
:26:36. > :26:37.with democracy last June, We trusted the people
:26:38. > :26:41.with departure, we must trust them Do we have anyone from
:26:42. > :26:48.Labour, or are you all watching it in a small
:26:49. > :26:49.room somewhere? Throughout the speech, there seemed
:26:50. > :26:57.to be an implied threat that somewhere along the line,
:26:58. > :27:00.if all her optimism of a deal with the European Union didn't work,
:27:01. > :27:02.we would move into a low-tax, corporate taxation,
:27:03. > :27:04.bargain-basement economy on the I think she needs to be
:27:05. > :27:08.a bit clearer about what The Labour leader
:27:09. > :27:15.suggested he'd tell his MPs to vote in favour
:27:16. > :27:18.of starting a Brexit process if Parliament was given the choice,
:27:19. > :27:20.sparking a mini pre-revolt among Finally, do we have anyone
:27:21. > :27:26.from big business here? Of course, your all in Davos
:27:27. > :27:35.at the World Economic Clarity, first of all, really
:27:36. > :27:45.codified what many of us have been anticipating since
:27:46. > :27:47.the referendum result, particularly around
:27:48. > :27:48.the I think what we've also seen
:27:49. > :27:52.today is the Government's willingness to put a bit of edge
:27:53. > :27:55.into the negotiating dynamic, and I Trade negotiations are negotiations,
:27:56. > :28:00.and you have to lay out, and you have to be pretty tough
:28:01. > :28:02.to get what you want. Although some business people
:28:03. > :28:04.on the slopes speculated about moving some of their
:28:05. > :28:07.operations out of Brexit Britain. We saw there the instant reaction
:28:08. > :28:25.of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, but how will the party respond
:28:26. > :28:28.to the challenge posed by Brexit Well, I'm joined now by the Shadow
:28:29. > :28:37.Home Secretary, Diane Abbott. People know that Ukip and the Tories
:28:38. > :28:42.are for Brexit. The Lib Dems are four remain. What is Labour for? For
:28:43. > :28:48.respecting the result of the referendum. It was a 72% turnout,
:28:49. > :28:51.very high for an election of that nature, and we believe you have to
:28:52. > :28:55.respect that result. You couldn't have a situation where people like
:28:56. > :28:59.Tim Farron are saying to people, millions of people, sorry, you got
:29:00. > :29:04.it wrong, we in London no better. However, how the Tories go forward
:29:05. > :29:10.from here has to be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. Is it Shadow
:29:11. > :29:15.Cabinet policy to vote for the triggering of Article 50? Our policy
:29:16. > :29:22.is not to block Article 50. That is what the leader was saying this
:29:23. > :29:27.morning. So are you for it? Our policy is not to block it. You are
:29:28. > :29:33.talking about voting for it. We don't know what the Supreme Court is
:29:34. > :29:35.going to say, and we don't know what legislation Government will bring
:29:36. > :29:41.forward, and we don't know what amendment we will move, but we're
:29:42. > :29:45.clear that we will not vote to block it. OK, so you won't bow to stop it,
:29:46. > :29:53.but you could abstain? No, what we will do... Either you vote for or
:29:54. > :29:57.against all you abstain. There are too many unanswered questions. For
:29:58. > :30:02.instance, the position of EU migrants working and living in this
:30:03. > :30:06.country. You may not get the answer to that before Article 50 comes
:30:07. > :30:11.before the Commons, so what would you do then? We are giving to amend
:30:12. > :30:15.it. We can only tell you exactly how we will amend it when we understand
:30:16. > :30:19.what sort of legislation the Government is putting forward, and
:30:20. > :30:23.in the course of moving those amendments, we will ask the
:30:24. > :30:24.questions that the people of Britain whether they voted to leave remain
:30:25. > :30:35.want answered. When you come to a collective view,
:30:36. > :30:39.will there be a three line whip? I can't tell you, because we have not
:30:40. > :30:47.seen the government 's legislation. But when you see it, you will come
:30:48. > :30:51.to a collective view. Many regard this as extremely important. Will
:30:52. > :30:56.there be a three line whip on Labour's collective view? Because it
:30:57. > :31:01.is important, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. When we see what the
:31:02. > :31:06.Supreme Court says, and crucially, when we see what the government
:31:07. > :31:12.position is, you will hear what the whipping is. Will shadow ministers
:31:13. > :31:18.be able to defy any three line whip on this? That is not normally the
:31:19. > :31:23.case. But they did on an early vote that the government introduced on
:31:24. > :31:28.Article 50. Those who voted against it are still there. In the Blair
:31:29. > :31:33.years, you certainly couldn't defy a three line whip. We will see what
:31:34. > :31:39.happens going forward. I remember when the Tories were hopelessly
:31:40. > :31:44.divided over the EU. All these Maastricht votes and an list
:31:45. > :31:49.arguments. Now it is Labour. Just another symptom of Mr Corbyn's poor
:31:50. > :32:01.leadership. Not at all. Two thirds voted to leave, a third to remain.
:32:02. > :32:06.We are seeking to bring the country and the party together. We will do
:32:07. > :32:16.that by pointing out how disastrous a Tory Brexit would be. Meanwhile,
:32:17. > :32:22.around 80 Labour MPs will defy a three line whip. It's too early to
:32:23. > :32:27.say that. Will you publish what you believe the negotiating goal should
:32:28. > :32:32.be? We are clear on it. We think that the economy, jobs and living
:32:33. > :32:37.standards should be the priority. What Theresa May is saying is that
:32:38. > :32:42.holding her party together is her priority. She is putting party above
:32:43. > :32:48.country. Does Labour think we should remain members of the single market?
:32:49. > :32:55.Ideally, in terms of jobs and the economy, of course. Ritt -ish
:32:56. > :32:58.business thinks that as well. Is Labour policy that we should remain
:32:59. > :33:02.a member of the single market? Labour leaves that jobs and the
:33:03. > :33:09.economy comes first, and if they come first, you would want to remain
:33:10. > :33:15.part of the single market. But to remain a member? Jobs and the
:33:16. > :33:20.economy comes first, and to do that, ideally, guess. So with that, comes
:33:21. > :33:24.free movement of people, the jurisdiction of the European, and a
:33:25. > :33:30.free movement of people, the multi-million never shipped thief.
:33:31. > :33:35.Is Labour prepared to pay that? Money is neither here nor there.
:33:36. > :33:41.Because the Tories will be asked to pay a lot of money... The EU has
:33:42. > :33:48.made it clear that you cannot pay a lot of money... The EU has
:33:49. > :33:54.have... I am asking for Labour's position. Our position is rooted in
:33:55. > :33:58.the reality, and the reality is that you cannot have the benefits of the
:33:59. > :34:02.member of the European Union, including being a member of the
:34:03. > :34:07.single market, without responsibility, including free
:34:08. > :34:08.movement of people. Free movement, is remaining under the jurisdiction
:34:09. > :34:17.of the European Court of Justice. Is is remaining under the jurisdiction
:34:18. > :34:21.that the Labour position? You've said that Labour wants to remain a
:34:22. > :34:26.member of the single market. That is the price tag that comes with it.
:34:27. > :34:32.Does Labour agree with paying that price tag? We are not pre-empting
:34:33. > :34:37.negotiation. Our goals are protect jobs and the British economy. Is it
:34:38. > :34:46.Labour's position that we remain a member of the customs union? Well,
:34:47. > :34:56.if we don't, I don't see how Theresa May can keep our promises and has
:34:57. > :35:05.unfettered access... You said Labour's position was clear. It is!
:35:06. > :35:11.It is clear that Theresa May... I am not asking about Theresa May. Is it
:35:12. > :35:17.Labour's position to remain a member of the customs union? It is Labour's
:35:18. > :35:20.position to do what is right for British industry. Depending on how
:35:21. > :35:25.the negotiations go, it may prove that coming out of the customs
:35:26. > :35:31.union, as Theresa May has indicated she wants to do, could prove
:35:32. > :35:37.catastrophic, and could actually destroy some of her promises. You do
:35:38. > :35:44.accept that if we are member of the customs union, we cannot do our own
:35:45. > :35:50.free trade deals? What free trade deals are you talking about? The
:35:51. > :35:54.ones that Labour might want to do in the future. First, we have to
:35:55. > :35:57.ones that Labour might want to do in protect British jobs and British
:35:58. > :36:01.industries. If you are talking about free trade deals with Donald Trump,
:36:02. > :36:07.the danger is that Theresa May will get drawn into a free-trade deal
:36:08. > :36:14.with America that will open up the NHS to American corporate... The
:36:15. > :36:19.cards are in Theresa May's hands. If she takes us out of the single
:36:20. > :36:23.market, if she takes us out of the customs union, we will have to deal
:36:24. > :36:26.with that. How big a crisis for Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour
:36:27. > :36:32.loses both by-elections in February. Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour
:36:33. > :36:41.I don't believe we will lose both. But if he did? I am not anticipating
:36:42. > :36:45.that. Is Labour lost two seats in a midterm of a Tory government, would
:36:46. > :36:49.that be business as usual? I'm not prepared to see us lose those seats,
:36:50. > :36:52.so I will not talk about something that will not happen. Thank you.
:36:53. > :36:54.You're watching the Sunday Politics.
:36:55. > :37:05.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:37:06. > :37:12.Scotland's Brexit Minister, Michael Russell, tells us SNP MPs
:37:13. > :37:15.will vote against triggering Article 50, no matter how it's amended.
:37:16. > :37:23.How concerned are Scotland's importers about Brexit?
:37:24. > :37:29.We have got to trust our negotiators at the end of the day. I'm sure they
:37:30. > :37:29.are doing their very best for Britain.
:37:30. > :37:32.And did Theresa May choose politics over economics when she set
:37:33. > :37:38.This week, the Supreme Court will deliver its verdict over
:37:39. > :37:41.whether MPs should have a vote over the triggering of Article 50.
:37:42. > :37:45.But Scotland's Brexit Minister says SNP MPs would vote against any bill.
:37:46. > :37:47.Before we came on air, I spoke to Michael Russell
:37:48. > :38:04.We can talk about Brexit in a minute, but Theresa May has just
:38:05. > :38:09.been on the Andrew Marr programme and she refused to say whether she
:38:10. > :38:14.knew about this alleged Trident missile misfiring at the time the
:38:15. > :38:20.renewal of Trident was debated in Parliament last year. Is that
:38:21. > :38:26.acceptable? It is unacceptable. Trident is a very serious issue, an
:38:27. > :38:30.issue where there needs to be transparency. If people had knowing
:38:31. > :38:36.what had happened they would, at the very least, have asked some
:38:37. > :38:41.questions. This is wrong and using secrecy to overcome democratic
:38:42. > :38:46.scrutiny. What will the SNP group in Parliament do about this? My
:38:47. > :38:53.colleagues will want to pursue this very firmly. They will want to find
:38:54. > :38:56.out when the Government knew, what the new, and why they did not give
:38:57. > :39:02.that information in the House of Commons. Theresa May does not want
:39:03. > :39:06.the House of Commons to be involved in any scrutiny, which is wrong and
:39:07. > :39:13.needs to be overcome. You will see vigorous action by the SNP. There
:39:14. > :39:16.are reports this morning found New Cross Parliamentary group at
:39:17. > :39:23.Westminster which, should the Supreme Court decides there will
:39:24. > :39:27.have to be bought in Article 50, the triggering off it, they plan to
:39:28. > :39:32.Britain amendments to soften some of the things that Theresa May said in
:39:33. > :39:37.her speech last week. Is that something be SNP supports? Had he
:39:38. > :39:44.been involved in these talks? I think the SNP MPs had been involved
:39:45. > :39:48.in many talks, but it will also be bringing Ford amendments. Whether it
:39:49. > :39:53.is part of that process are complementary to it remains to be
:39:54. > :39:56.seen. All bills can be amended. The difference in position is what
:39:57. > :40:01.happens at the end of the day when the bill is voted on and in the
:40:02. > :40:10.present circumstances I don't think there is any possibility of the SNP
:40:11. > :40:13.MPs supporting Article 50. If there is a legislative consent motion in
:40:14. > :40:18.the Scottish Parliament, as I presumed will be, we will be voting
:40:19. > :40:22.against that process. It does in Article 50 is not just endorsing the
:40:23. > :40:26.vote in the United Kingdom, the vote in Scotland was very different, it
:40:27. > :40:31.is endorsing the position that Theresa May has taken on Brexit and
:40:32. > :40:35.endorsing the type of country that she wants. She wants an isolationist
:40:36. > :40:40.country, one that is in Word looking, and one that is rejecting
:40:41. > :40:45.the benefits of migration. That is not the country any of us want
:40:46. > :40:50.Scotland to be. That is the strongest reason for rejecting it.
:40:51. > :40:58.Will the SNP vote against triggering article 15 or matter how it is
:40:59. > :40:59.amended? Absolutely. I cannot conceive of circumstances where we
:41:00. > :41:04.would support the triggering conceive of circumstances where we
:41:05. > :41:09.Article 50. It takes this issue forward in an unacceptable way and
:41:10. > :41:13.takes the type of Brexit forwarded an unacceptable way and it declares
:41:14. > :41:18.the type of country that Theresa May once this country to be, and that is
:41:19. > :41:26.not the country that me or my colleagues or Scotland wants to be.
:41:27. > :41:30.There was a meeting you were at this week, a group are going to study the
:41:31. > :41:35.proposals in your paper on Brexit. Have you been given any reason to
:41:36. > :41:43.believe that the British Government will adopt the proposal you put
:41:44. > :41:47.forward in that paper? The first of the proposals in the paper has been
:41:48. > :41:50.rejected by the Prime Minister without consultation or discussion.
:41:51. > :41:58.Not only did she say so two days before the Committee met, there was
:41:59. > :42:02.no paper on Thursday saying that this was what the Prime Minister had
:42:03. > :42:06.decided and five. There was an agreement on Thursday to look at the
:42:07. > :42:10.other proposals, the proposals to do with Scotland remaining and the
:42:11. > :42:16.single market and on the customs union and on further devolution.
:42:17. > :42:21.They can look at those in detail and they are perfectly achievable. They
:42:22. > :42:26.will be hard, but they are achievable. That is the position we
:42:27. > :42:29.are now in. There was a feeling of frustration for the devolved
:42:30. > :42:35.administrations on Thursday because we were faced with decisions made
:42:36. > :42:38.outside the Committee, no respect for the Committee at the devolved
:42:39. > :42:41.institutions, and the reasons given. We still have not seen the workings
:42:42. > :42:47.that Theresa May used to say we should not be in the single market.
:42:48. > :42:53.When you said after the meeting that the clock is ticking, what did you
:42:54. > :43:00.mean? The clock is ticking on the process we are engaged in because
:43:01. > :43:04.that has got to be real, there has to be a work programme that makes
:43:05. > :43:09.sense. The clock is also taking in terms of an independence referendum
:43:10. > :43:15.because there is an alternative to the present situation. We really
:43:16. > :43:21.want to try and get a negotiated solution, we put everything into
:43:22. > :43:26.that, but it does not appear that is being paid any respect or given any
:43:27. > :43:31.consideration, because this is a very well worked out series of
:43:32. > :43:36.proposals. The clock is ticking and this is not a process that will last
:43:37. > :43:40.forever. Article 50 is meant to be triggered by the end of March, but
:43:41. > :43:45.we have not seen a scrap of paper to see what will be in this letter, we
:43:46. > :43:49.have not seen the working that has gone into that, and we have not been
:43:50. > :43:59.consulted despite reference to joint ministerial Committee. Supporters of
:44:00. > :44:03.Theresa May and her Government has said saying that the clock is
:44:04. > :44:07.ticking and continuing to threaten an independence referendum does not
:44:08. > :44:12.mean anything. We can read the polling figures as well as you can
:44:13. > :44:15.and we know that is not a majority in Scotland for independence, with
:44:16. > :44:20.even less support for another independence referendum. All your
:44:21. > :44:24.talk of clocks ticking and the threat of another referendum does
:44:25. > :44:30.not put any pressure on us, they would say. How would you reply to
:44:31. > :44:33.that? There is no threat to be made. We said at the beginning of this
:44:34. > :44:38.process there were a series of options that needed to be considered
:44:39. > :44:43.and went through this carefully. We also said there was a democratic
:44:44. > :44:48.mandate to hold another referendum if we were taken out of Europe
:44:49. > :44:51.against our well. My point is, given the way that the polling figures
:44:52. > :44:57.are, it does not look like it is wanted. I don't think there is any
:44:58. > :45:02.doubt that a campaign focused on the type of country we want to live and
:45:03. > :45:07.would be a very effective campaign indeed. If you look at where the
:45:08. > :45:10.polls were at the start of the campaign for the 2014 referendum and
:45:11. > :45:17.where they ended up, the possibility of significant progress absolutely
:45:18. > :45:22.exists. We're looking at the options carefully one by one and we are this
:45:23. > :45:28.in a rational way and unlike the UK Government. It is possible to move
:45:29. > :45:33.forward on a well worked out compromise position and that is
:45:34. > :45:37.still on the table. There are no threats being made, we are working
:45:38. > :45:44.our way through a logical set of options. I wish the people that we
:45:45. > :45:48.are negotiating with were as logical as we are. You said in the paper you
:45:49. > :45:52.produced that you seem to accept that should your idea of Scotland
:45:53. > :45:57.joining the European Union free-trade area and staying in the
:45:58. > :46:01.single market, that to get anywhere with that you would need the
:46:02. > :46:05.sponsorship of the British Government. Have you formally as the
:46:06. > :46:14.British Government to sponsor that? It is in the paper... Have you as
:46:15. > :46:19.the? Should the UK Government agree that there should be in the
:46:20. > :46:23.negotiating position for Article 50, they would be expected to do that
:46:24. > :46:27.and at the appropriate minute we will see that needs to go in the
:46:28. > :46:33.letter. There is another way to do that which is to give the Scottish
:46:34. > :46:38.Parliament the powers, the treaty powers, for its devolved areas and
:46:39. > :46:43.to give a legal personality. That is what happened in Belgium with the
:46:44. > :46:51.devolved parliaments there. There are options within this paper. As of
:46:52. > :46:55.now, the British Government has given you no indication that it
:46:56. > :47:01.would either sponsor Scotland's in doing this, which would mean the
:47:02. > :47:05.British Government would have to negotiate with the other 27 members
:47:06. > :47:09.of the European Union over this, nor have they given you any indication
:47:10. > :47:16.that they would give you the legislative power to do it yourself.
:47:17. > :47:23.Is that correct? As of now, we are in the joint process of examining
:47:24. > :47:27.the process in the paper. It is being considered by officials on
:47:28. > :47:31.both sides with the involvement of ministers. That is the position we
:47:32. > :47:36.are in and that is the position that we want to lead, but in the Article
:47:37. > :47:41.50 letter there will be a section that says this is what we want to
:47:42. > :47:45.see happen with Scotland, we will undergo shapeless, and we will
:47:46. > :47:49.support the United Kingdom Government in negotiating that
:47:50. > :47:52.position if they decide to put that in the article 15 letter. But they
:47:53. > :47:59.have not said they will support this? This paper is being debated
:48:00. > :48:02.and discussed. We will support the United Kingdom Government of
:48:03. > :48:06.drafting that section of the Article 50 letter and on the negotiations on
:48:07. > :48:13.choose a degree that should happen. choose a degree that should happen.
:48:14. > :48:16.-- if they choose to agree. The other devolved administrations know
:48:17. > :48:22.how important this servers and Northern Ireland the situation is
:48:23. > :48:28.more serious. 15% of Scotland's exports go to the European Union,
:48:29. > :48:34.compared to over 60% to the rest of the United Kingdom. Can we take it
:48:35. > :48:37.that if you do have another referendum campaign, that you will
:48:38. > :48:44.propose as single market with the UK? Of course, because we have
:48:45. > :48:50.proposed that before. We said that we did not expect there to be any
:48:51. > :48:54.interruption in trade. You can look at this to the other end of the
:48:55. > :48:59.telescope and say that is what the rest of the United Kingdom is saying
:49:00. > :49:04.about the EU and its continuing arrangements. We want to continue to
:49:05. > :49:11.trade. Anyone who says there is an either or is malicious or mistaken.
:49:12. > :49:17.ICU yacht is waiting to take you away so we better leave it there.
:49:18. > :49:23.Thank you. I'm afraid not, but thank you.
:49:24. > :49:25.The Prime Minister this week confirmed what most of us
:49:26. > :49:28.Britain will leave the European single market.
:49:29. > :49:30.Theresa May promised to push instead for the "freest possible trade"
:49:31. > :49:33.with Europe but reaching a deal before we leave seems,
:49:34. > :49:35.at this stage, well, at the very least debatable.
:49:36. > :49:37.In the meantime, our imports and exports could be
:49:38. > :49:40.Graham Stewart's been finding out how that might affect Scotland's
:49:41. > :49:53.We have here, Graham, wines from Bordeaux on the left-hand side. At a
:49:54. > :50:00.wine importers of Livingston, free trade with Europe is essential to
:50:01. > :50:06.their business. And these ones here? You are a man of expensive taste but
:50:07. > :50:11.quality. This is from 2006, very good vintage. Whether it is a fine
:50:12. > :50:13.claret or a cheeky Chardonnay, Brexit will not end our love affair
:50:14. > :50:19.with fine wines, but the future does Brexit will not end our love affair
:50:20. > :50:24.not look so rosy. The wine trade has survived the Reformation, the union
:50:25. > :50:29.of Parliament and during the Jacobite area, nationals took to
:50:30. > :50:32.claret as a portion to report as a sign of their independence. But how
:50:33. > :50:38.will the wine trade survived Brexit? The immediate impact was on the
:50:39. > :50:41.foreign exchange, we import all of our products from abroad, both
:50:42. > :50:50.within the European Community or from out with, Australia, South
:50:51. > :50:57.America, South Africa... There was a 20% drop in foreign exchange for 20%
:50:58. > :51:00.increase in our costs. And that this before Brexit has even happened. The
:51:01. > :51:04.Prime Minister last week was optimistic that Britain can strike a
:51:05. > :51:09.new free trade deal with Europe, but all the signs so far suggest
:51:10. > :51:14.European leaders are unwilling to start negotiating a deal until after
:51:15. > :51:19.we leave. So how long do trade negotiations normally take? The
:51:20. > :51:23.answer is there is no normal. The US and the EU started to put together a
:51:24. > :51:27.deal and said they would do it within 18 months. We are still
:51:28. > :51:32.trying to negotiate that and it may die with Mr Trump coming to power,
:51:33. > :51:37.but that is still going on for years later. Quite a few negotiations... I
:51:38. > :51:42.have known negotiations that have been going for ten years and have
:51:43. > :51:45.not been completed. In the intron, Britain might have to operate under
:51:46. > :51:48.the rules of the World Trade Organisation and that would mean
:51:49. > :51:54.tariffs on imports and exports, which would impose costs on our
:51:55. > :52:00.industries. There are wide range of tariffs, some are zero, a lot of
:52:01. > :52:06.trade is zero. But others are quite high, from motor cars, for example,
:52:07. > :52:10.the tariff is 10%, that adds 10% onto the price. There are other
:52:11. > :52:15.areas where it is even higher, particularly for food. Forlan, for
:52:16. > :52:29.example, there is a percentage tariff of 12.8% and then on top that
:52:30. > :52:32.you is a 1700 euros export that has been paid to get the lamb into the
:52:33. > :52:35.EU offer the EU to get Islam into the UK. That has set off alarm bells
:52:36. > :52:38.in Scotland's food and rent industries that are worried about
:52:39. > :52:44.becoming a bargaining chip in any trade negotiations. In Scotland we
:52:45. > :52:48.represent 19% of all manufacturing jobs and another ?14 million to the
:52:49. > :52:52.economy. That is enormously important to the economy of Scotland
:52:53. > :52:55.and our concern is that if food and drink is not privatised in those
:52:56. > :53:03.negotiations, huge and important jobs will be lost. -- is not
:53:04. > :53:06.prioritised. And at Scotland's oldest delicatessen, it might in
:53:07. > :53:11.future cost more to buy your favourite Italian cheese. But as a
:53:12. > :53:16.company, they are not using the head just yet. We must trust our
:53:17. > :53:24.negotiators at the end of the day and I am sure they are doing their
:53:25. > :53:30.very best for Britain. I also guess that we still are in the EEC for the
:53:31. > :53:36.next two years until we are out. So life must continue. So there does
:53:37. > :53:39.not worry about it, let us think about it and hopefully influence,
:53:40. > :53:43.but we have two years to go yet. Still, that does not give the
:53:44. > :53:48.Britain much time to find experienced negotiators who know
:53:49. > :53:51.their onions, but if the civil service is looking for
:53:52. > :53:53.inspiration... There is a man in the White House who is good at making
:53:54. > :53:56.deals. Now, before her speech this week,
:53:57. > :54:00.all we really knew about the UK Government's plans for Brexit
:54:01. > :54:02.were that it means Brexit. Then this week we got a glimpse of
:54:03. > :54:13.what Theresa May's plans might be... It was a vote to restore as we see
:54:14. > :54:18.it our parliamentary democracy, national survey termination and to
:54:19. > :54:23.become even more global and internationalist in action and in
:54:24. > :54:27.spirit. And that is why we seek a new and equal partnership between an
:54:28. > :54:29.independent self-governing global Britain and our friends and allies
:54:30. > :54:31.in the EU. But the Prime Minister's speech has
:54:32. > :54:33.led some commentators to conclude that Theresa May has favoured
:54:34. > :54:35.the political argument With me to discuss this,
:54:36. > :54:39.in Edinburgh, is Christina Boswell, who's Professor of Politics
:54:40. > :54:41.at the University of Edinburgh, and in our Dundee studio
:54:42. > :54:43.is Brad MacKay, Professor of Strategic Management
:54:44. > :54:55.at the University of St Andrews. Christina Boswell, you think that
:54:56. > :55:00.politics are winning on this, do you? It is always politics, isn't
:55:01. > :55:04.it? We are used to the idea that the economy is a very salient issue for
:55:05. > :55:08.voters, so they typically put the economy at the top of the robust
:55:09. > :55:13.when deciding what position to support. In this case, Theresa May
:55:14. > :55:24.had all made a calculation that economics is not such a salient
:55:25. > :55:26.issue in regard to Brexit and you must remember that the economic
:55:27. > :55:29.prognosis about the effect of Brexit on the UK economy are fairly complex
:55:30. > :55:32.and abstract. It is not immediately clear to many voters how leaving the
:55:33. > :55:36.EU will affect them economically and I think also people are quite wary
:55:37. > :55:39.about different economic forecasts, they are not necessarily trusting,
:55:40. > :55:43.they do not find incredible because they have been politicised, people
:55:44. > :55:46.see them as partisan claims supporting different positions and I
:55:47. > :55:49.think finally, there is another issue around the economy, which is
:55:50. > :55:53.that the type of national indicators that we typically used to measure
:55:54. > :55:58.economic performance do not necessarily resonate with people's
:55:59. > :56:01.experience at the moment. We are told GDP is rising and that
:56:02. > :56:04.employment figures are strong and rising, but that does not
:56:05. > :56:09.necessarily correspond to how people feel in their lives. Into the vacuum
:56:10. > :56:16.then steps these more emotive and perhaps more compelling arguments
:56:17. > :56:19.about identity, immigration. Brad MacKay, Theresa May would tell you
:56:20. > :56:25.she is not putting politics ahead of economics, she has an economic plan.
:56:26. > :56:27.There is an economic plan, that is the certainly come out of the single
:56:28. > :56:31.market and possibly come out of the certainly come out of the single
:56:32. > :56:35.customs union and then to launch on this global strategy of striking
:56:36. > :56:38.deals across the world. One of the issues and Christina has touched on
:56:39. > :56:46.it is that there are lot of contradictions that exist and are
:56:47. > :56:48.being brought about by taking a more political line or putting political
:56:49. > :56:52.issues at the forefront of the government's strategy.
:56:53. > :56:54.issues at the forefront of the economists say trade is one area of
:56:55. > :57:00.economics that is pretty straight forward and if you leave the
:57:01. > :57:03.European Union, it will harm Britain's trade, not just with the
:57:04. > :57:06.European Union but the rest of the world. Did you agree with that or do
:57:07. > :57:09.you think there is a possibility that we could do some of the very
:57:10. > :57:14.successful deals that Theresa May would like to do? I think that the
:57:15. > :57:19.government has set out a very ambitious strategy and as a said
:57:20. > :57:24.before, there are a lot of different contradictions. For example, coming
:57:25. > :57:27.out of the single market, certainly coming out of the customs union and
:57:28. > :57:32.then trying to replicate that on either a sectorial basis on in its
:57:33. > :57:35.entirety but without some of those political issues that will be
:57:36. > :57:40.important for the European Union, like the movement of free people and
:57:41. > :57:43.coming under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The
:57:44. > :57:47.challenge that the UK has, which also present another contradiction,
:57:48. > :57:52.is that at the moment the UK is trying to embark on a global
:57:53. > :57:54.strategy when the forces of protectionism are coming to the
:57:55. > :58:01.fore. So it will be very challenging. And trying to replicate
:58:02. > :58:04.even some of the, what the UK currently has in terms of access to
:58:05. > :58:08.the single market in terms of the sectorial basis, that may indeed
:58:09. > :58:12.come into conflict with some of the world trade organisation rules. So
:58:13. > :58:15.there are all kinds of different contradictions that exist within the
:58:16. > :58:19.correct strategy that would have to be reconciled before the UK would be
:58:20. > :58:22.able to negotiate what would be a set of very complex deals that would
:58:23. > :58:26.leave it better off and I think most economists would agree that because
:58:27. > :58:31.the UK is seen very much as a gateway by a lot of foreign
:58:32. > :58:36.investors into the EU, it is going to be a very tall order indeed to
:58:37. > :58:40.try and achieve that. The other side of that, Christina Boswell is, of
:58:41. > :58:41.course, at least we're not really seeing any bad economic effects of
:58:42. > :58:48.leaving. I take the point that we seeing any bad economic effects of
:58:49. > :58:51.have not done it yet, but when the governor of the Bank of England is
:58:52. > :58:53.telling us that the main threat to short-term financial stability in
:58:54. > :58:58.the UK is no longer Brexit, that must mean something. Yes, but how
:58:59. > :59:01.this plays out politically for Theresa May in the next months and
:59:02. > :59:06.years will depend on a number of things and one of those is the
:59:07. > :59:10.economic indicators and how Brexit is affecting the economy as
:59:11. > :59:15.decisions are made and as the negotiation outcome becomes clearer.
:59:16. > :59:18.We have also got to bear in mind that there are other factors which
:59:19. > :59:24.could play quite negatively for Theresa May. For example, if it
:59:25. > :59:28.looks like the negotiation process will be protracted, it will be very
:59:29. > :59:32.difficult if the EU is very intransigent in its negotiation
:59:33. > :59:39.position. But also a lot is riding on the government's ability to
:59:40. > :59:43.restrict immigration and I am not that confident that the government
:59:44. > :59:46.will be able to do so, it has not managed to restrict non-EU
:59:47. > :59:49.immigration since 2010. I do not think it will fare much better in
:59:50. > :59:52.restricting EU immigration, so I think there could be a lot of
:59:53. > :59:57.disappointed voters out there. What do you think the Scottish Government
:59:58. > :00:03.should do? Two possible strategies, one is to say, look, this is what we
:00:04. > :00:06.want, if we do not get it, we will have another independence
:00:07. > :00:11.referendum. Arguably there is another price which is that a whole
:00:12. > :00:14.lot of powers are going to be devolved probably because when you
:00:15. > :00:17.leave the European Union they could see, for example, we want limited
:00:18. > :00:20.powers over immigration. There was see, for example, we want limited
:00:21. > :00:24.video that was done with Jack McConnell many years ago, if you
:00:25. > :00:27.remember, on students. Things like that that could give them a bit more
:00:28. > :00:32.flexibility. I think that is correct. The Lewis Cook for some
:00:33. > :00:36.leverage there. In the speech of Theresa May on Tuesday she spoke
:00:37. > :00:40.about the repatriation of powers, as it is called, and she made in north
:00:41. > :00:44.to the idea that it might make sense for some of those Paris to come back
:00:45. > :00:48.to the devolved administrations and others to go back to Westminster. So
:00:49. > :00:52.she seems to be signalling some flexibility there, however it does
:00:53. > :00:58.not go anywhere near the type of proposals put forward by Nicola
:00:59. > :01:02.Sturgeon just before Christmas, which was aiming towards a fully
:01:03. > :01:08.differentiated approach with Scotland retaining access to the
:01:09. > :01:12.single market. In terms of the SNP's negotiating position as it were, I
:01:13. > :01:17.think that the Lions have really hard and through this set of
:01:18. > :01:21.proposals that were advanced before Christmas and now Theresa May's
:01:22. > :01:25.speech. It will be very difficult, I think, to pull back from those hard
:01:26. > :01:30.divisions which have become crystallised now. It is very
:01:31. > :01:34.difficult to envisage avoiding a second referendum on Scottish
:01:35. > :01:38.independence, I think. What do you think about that, Brad MacKay? It
:01:39. > :01:44.might be wrong in this, but I think one of the argument that was put
:01:45. > :01:47.forward in the past about devolving the EFTA was because it was
:01:48. > :01:50.earmarked for paying into the European Union, you could not have
:01:51. > :01:54.different VAT rates around the UK. But as long as we're not in the EU,
:01:55. > :01:59.the Scottish Government can say they can have control of VAT, thank you
:02:00. > :02:04.very much. -- VAT. I think there is a lot of scope for devolving a lot
:02:05. > :02:09.more powers to the Scottish Government. If you look at something
:02:10. > :02:13.like even immigration and you take the example of Canada and Quebec.
:02:14. > :02:16.Quebec has a customised deal as a province in Canada with the Canadian
:02:17. > :02:20.federal government to have a lot more control over that. So I think
:02:21. > :02:25.there is a lot of scope in being able to do that. I think we're some
:02:26. > :02:28.of the challenges for the Scottish Government come in are that the
:02:29. > :02:34.reality is that Scotland's economy is a very highly integrated thing
:02:35. > :02:38.with the rest of the UK. Somewhere between 60% and 70% of Scottish
:02:39. > :02:42.exports actually go to the rest of the UK, only about 15% would go to
:02:43. > :02:45.the European Union. I think there are some areas where powers could be
:02:46. > :02:49.devolved to the Scottish Government, which would allow the Scottish
:02:50. > :02:53.Government to tailor various policies to the needs of Scotland
:02:54. > :02:58.and immigration would potentially be one of them. I think when it comes
:02:59. > :03:02.to trying to negotiate some sort of halfway house between a single
:03:03. > :03:06.market in the UK and the single market in Europe, that presents a
:03:07. > :03:09.whole lot of challenges that will be difficult to overcome. Christina
:03:10. > :03:12.Boswell, briefly on immigration, you said a minute ago it could be very
:03:13. > :03:19.difficult for the British government to control immigration to the extent
:03:20. > :03:21.that they would like, even if they get powers over immigration back,
:03:22. > :03:29.which they would by beating the EU, is that a potential pitfall with
:03:30. > :03:30.Brexit if it does not deliver the thing that many people voted for
:03:31. > :03:35.Brexit if it does not deliver the Brexit in order to achieve? I think
:03:36. > :03:39.it could be a potential pitfall but a lot depends upon how the
:03:40. > :03:42.government manages to shape the narrative and every listen to the
:03:43. > :03:45.language being used by Theresa May at the moment, she does not talk
:03:46. > :03:49.about ridges, she does not talk about bring down, she talks about
:03:50. > :03:53.control, controlling emigration... about bring down, she talks about
:03:54. > :03:59.And again. I am thinking, we are seeing a subtle shift away from the
:04:00. > :04:02.language around reducing net migration towards controlling and
:04:03. > :04:04.that is a narrative around selectivity, the brightest and best,
:04:05. > :04:08.selecting those immigrants that will selectivity, the brightest and best,
:04:09. > :04:12.be beneficial towards our economy. I suspect you want to shape the
:04:13. > :04:15.narrative like that, that it is not uncontrolled immigration for anyone
:04:16. > :04:18.who wants to come here but controlled immigration, possibly
:04:19. > :04:22.similar numbers, but of those who reselect the benefit our economy.
:04:23. > :04:25.Christina Boswell and Brad MacKay, thank you both very much indeed.
:04:26. > :04:28.Time now to look at the stories from the week gone by and those
:04:29. > :04:34.With me this week are Caron Lindsay, editor of Liberal Democrat Voice,
:04:35. > :04:36.and the SNP's former head of communications turned
:04:37. > :04:42.communications consultant, Kevin Pringle.
:04:43. > :04:53.Kevin, you were there during the last independence referendum. If you
:04:54. > :04:55.were still there, what would you say to the Scottish Government? Would
:04:56. > :05:02.you say go for a referendum next year or would you tell them to wait?
:05:03. > :05:07.I think another referendum is increasingly likely and I think it
:05:08. > :05:11.is unavoidable. In terms of the result of the European referendum,
:05:12. > :05:15.it was such a deferential result across the UK, the fact it was
:05:16. > :05:26.included in the SNP manifesto last year... Would you still go for it?
:05:27. > :05:33.Yes, for two reasons. They polls are around pretty work in 2014, but to
:05:34. > :05:40.begin at 45% is different from 2014 when we began... The counter to that
:05:41. > :05:46.is to say that at the beginning of 2014 a lot of people had not
:05:47. > :05:51.decided. It is more polarised now. I think it is more polarised but it is
:05:52. > :05:56.also more fluid than people think. There has been a shift in both
:05:57. > :06:02.directions, some have gone from no two yes, some have gone from yes to
:06:03. > :06:08.no. I think it will be much easier to get people who have gone from yes
:06:09. > :06:17.to no back again, and even if that is all that happens the referendum
:06:18. > :06:21.result would be yes. The framing of the referendum in a post-Brexit
:06:22. > :06:27.situation... What Nicola Sturgeon would like to do is say that the
:06:28. > :06:36.referendum is not about Brexit at about putting Brexit in the wider
:06:37. > :06:42.context of the Democratic... The point Kenny MacAskill has been
:06:43. > :06:46.making is that a lot of SNP yes voters, whether they were SNP voters
:06:47. > :06:51.are not, voted to leave the European Union. He argues that there should
:06:52. > :06:55.not be another referendum but also that when there is one it should not
:06:56. > :07:02.be a bit Europe because you have to win over previous yes photos he
:07:03. > :07:05.voted to leave Europe. I think that will be possible because Brexit is
:07:06. > :07:12.an extreme example of democratic deficit. Since 2010 there has been a
:07:13. > :07:13.UK Government supported by only one member of Parliament in Scotland.
:07:14. > :07:18.UK Government supported by only one The equivalent would be for Scotland
:07:19. > :07:25.to be governed by a country that only had nine MPs. That is the
:07:26. > :07:32.result of an election system you do not support. It is only because of
:07:33. > :07:37.first past the post their SNP has got so many. It is the reality that
:07:38. > :07:43.Scotland finds itself in. It is fertile territory to deliver a yes
:07:44. > :07:48.vote. These reports this morning that Liberal Democrats among others
:07:49. > :07:51.by looking at putting amendment should the Supreme Court decide
:07:52. > :07:57.there will have to be legislation on Article 50. That is something you
:07:58. > :08:01.think may show some promise or a do you think the Conservatives will
:08:02. > :08:07.just dismantle the? I don't think the ad server to Tory nationalism is
:08:08. > :08:11.SNP national of them. I think the SNP and the Liberal Democrats and
:08:12. > :08:14.other people in Parliament should be working together to secure a
:08:15. > :08:19.referendum on the Brexit deal, because I think that is the best way
:08:20. > :08:27.of making sure the whole UK stays in the single market. What do you think
:08:28. > :08:30.of Michael Russell's tactic that we will put forward lots of amendments
:08:31. > :08:37.to the bill but we will vote against it anyway? We need to see how it
:08:38. > :08:42.shapes up. That is an odd way to proceed. We can see what happens in
:08:43. > :08:48.the House of Commons but I think the reality is that these amendment is
:08:49. > :08:55.unlikely to be successful. That is a strong Democratic position for the
:08:56. > :09:01.SNP MPs to base their caisson. Can they completely rejected? It is not
:09:02. > :09:08.impossible that enough Conservatives might vote for these amendments. The
:09:09. > :09:12.majority of Conservative MPs were first staying in the European Union.
:09:13. > :09:18.The problem is you have to see what the Labour Party do. They are not
:09:19. > :09:25.providing any opposition whatsoever. They are just saying they will vote
:09:26. > :09:28.for Article 50 whatever, which is wrong. If people were working
:09:29. > :09:35.together we could really make some changes. Labour are not here to
:09:36. > :09:41.defend themselves, but I think they would say calling for another
:09:42. > :09:45.referendum on the outcome of negotiations is ignoring the
:09:46. > :09:49.referendum result. You criticise the SNP for ignoring the result of the
:09:50. > :09:52.independence referendum, but you're doing the same of the Brexit
:09:53. > :10:00.referendum. We had no idea what Brexit would look like. How is that
:10:01. > :10:01.different from the SNP saying that they had no idea Scotland would vote
:10:02. > :10:05.different from the SNP saying that to stay in the EU and the rest of
:10:06. > :10:11.the UK wouldn't. You respect the result or you do not stop you
:10:12. > :10:17.respect the vote for a departure but people did not vote for the
:10:18. > :10:22.destination. But Scotland voted... That is the same as the SNP saying
:10:23. > :10:26.that Scotland voted to stay in the UK but we did not know that would be
:10:27. > :10:31.a European referendum in Scotland. Therefore that invalidates the
:10:32. > :10:35.outcome of the referendum. You cannot accuse the SNP for not
:10:36. > :10:42.telling us what independence would look like. We did not have that in
:10:43. > :10:48.the league campaign. Theresa May has chosen the most extreme version of
:10:49. > :10:55.Brexit on a very slim majority. I think people need to have a vote on
:10:56. > :11:01.what Brexit looks like. The SNP are saying that we might have another
:11:02. > :11:05.independence referendum, that is one thing, but it is another thing to
:11:06. > :11:10.say there should be a referendum across the UK on the results of the
:11:11. > :11:16.negotiation. I don't know what view the SNP would take on that, but the
:11:17. > :11:18.difference between the independence referendum, where the definition of
:11:19. > :11:26.what an independent Scotland would look like in that 600 page document
:11:27. > :11:29.that everyone had available, that was provided before the referendum.
:11:30. > :11:32.that everyone had available, that All the definition of what Brexit is
:11:33. > :11:39.good to look like him and after the vote, so there is a case to consider
:11:40. > :11:46.the issue of another referendum on the grounds that none of the
:11:47. > :11:49.definition was there. Many leading leave campaigners said explicitly
:11:50. > :11:55.that voting to leave was not about leaving the single European market.
:11:56. > :12:02.One who had pursued Brexit for decades made a point of saying the
:12:03. > :12:05.UK would stay in the single European market, the opposite of what is
:12:06. > :12:11.happening. When the opposite of what was said would happen is actually
:12:12. > :12:19.about to come about there is a case to consider that. With no additional
:12:20. > :12:25.spectre Dan, just because he said... Many people said that. Leaving the
:12:26. > :12:29.European Union is not about leaving the single market. If you look at
:12:30. > :12:34.the Tory manifesto for 2015, they said they were in terms -- they were
:12:35. > :12:40.in favour of remaining in the single market. We have heard from Theresa
:12:41. > :12:47.May that this is not the case. Then you come into the issue that that is
:12:48. > :12:51.the ground upon which the SNP have chosen to rest the bulk of their
:12:52. > :12:56.case, that Scotland should remain in the single market and the same is
:12:57. > :13:01.true for Northern Ireland. That should be taken into account. We
:13:02. > :13:08.cannot end this programme about giving you a chance to tell us how
:13:09. > :13:14.much admired Donald Trump. There is a cause for optimism. The marchers
:13:15. > :13:19.we saw yesterday, I think that will bring people who've never been
:13:20. > :13:25.involved in politics into trying to get a stake in the future, to try
:13:26. > :13:32.and fight against what he is doing. We have seen how he has torn up all
:13:33. > :13:39.the stuff on Obama care, health care, climate change... A quick
:13:40. > :13:44.comment on Donald Trump. What do you think of what he is done? It has all
:13:45. > :13:51.been about Donald Trump. I think it might be a mistake for a Theresa May
:13:52. > :13:54.to go there because it is still very raw and controversial. We need to
:13:55. > :13:55.leave it there. I'll be back at the
:13:56. > :13:58.same time next week. There's live Scottish Cup action
:13:59. > :14:09.next Sunday, as Hearts travel to Stark's Park
:14:10. > :14:13.to take on Raith Rovers. Can the Championship side
:14:14. > :14:17.cause a Cup upset -