:00:34. > :00:38.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:41.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:42. > :00:44.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:45. > :00:46.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:47. > :00:52.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:53. > :00:55.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:56. > :00:57.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:00:58. > :01:02.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:03. > :01:08.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:09. > :01:10.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:11. > :01:15.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:16. > :01:19.And coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.
:01:20. > :01:21.The quiet Conservatives are finding their voice.
:01:22. > :01:34.I'll be speaking to their Scottish Leader Ruth Davidson.
:01:35. > :01:37.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:38. > :01:40.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:41. > :01:44.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:45. > :01:47.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:48. > :01:50.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:51. > :01:52.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:53. > :01:58.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:59. > :02:03.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:04. > :02:05.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:06. > :02:08.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:09. > :02:12.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:13. > :02:14.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:15. > :02:19.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:20. > :02:22.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:23. > :02:33.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:34. > :02:40.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:41. > :02:44.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:45. > :02:47.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:48. > :02:59.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:00. > :03:04.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:05. > :03:08.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:09. > :03:12.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:13. > :03:18.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:19. > :03:22.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:23. > :03:28.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:29. > :03:32.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:33. > :03:36.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:37. > :03:42.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:43. > :03:48.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:49. > :03:55.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:56. > :03:59.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:00. > :04:02.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:03. > :04:09.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:10. > :04:12.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:13. > :04:17.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:18. > :04:21.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:22. > :04:26.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:27. > :04:31.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:32. > :04:34.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:35. > :04:41.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:42. > :04:46.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:47. > :04:51.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:52. > :04:55.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:56. > :05:00.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:01. > :05:04.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:05. > :05:09.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:10. > :05:13.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:14. > :05:17.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:18. > :05:22.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:23. > :05:27.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:28. > :05:33.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:34. > :05:39.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:40. > :05:45.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:46. > :05:49.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:50. > :05:55.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:56. > :06:01.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:02. > :06:07.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:08. > :06:11.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:12. > :06:15.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:16. > :06:21.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:22. > :06:27.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:28. > :06:31.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:32. > :06:36.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:37. > :06:41.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:42. > :06:48.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:49. > :06:54.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:55. > :06:59.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:00. > :07:04.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:05. > :07:08.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:09. > :07:12.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:13. > :07:15.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:16. > :07:20.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:21. > :07:26.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:27. > :07:29.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:30. > :07:32.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:33. > :07:35.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:36. > :07:38.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:39. > :07:41.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:42. > :07:43.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:44. > :07:46.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:47. > :07:52.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:53. > :07:56.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:57. > :08:00.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:01. > :08:03.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:04. > :08:07.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:08. > :08:11.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:12. > :08:14."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:15. > :08:16.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:17. > :08:18.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:19. > :08:23.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:24. > :08:33.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:34. > :08:39.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:40. > :08:43.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:44. > :08:43.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:44. > :08:47.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:48. > :08:50.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:51. > :08:56.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:57. > :09:00.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:01. > :09:03.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:04. > :09:10.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:11. > :09:13.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:14. > :09:19.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:20. > :09:23.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:24. > :09:30.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:31. > :09:37.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:38. > :09:43.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:44. > :09:47.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:48. > :09:51.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:52. > :09:55.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:56. > :10:00.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:01. > :10:04.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:05. > :10:10.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:11. > :10:18.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:19. > :10:23.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:24. > :10:28.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:29. > :10:33.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:34. > :10:41.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:42. > :10:46.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:47. > :10:49.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:50. > :10:54.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:55. > :10:58.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:10:59. > :11:04.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:05. > :11:09.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:10. > :11:14.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:15. > :11:19.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:20. > :11:22.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:23. > :11:28.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:29. > :11:31.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:32. > :11:38.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:39. > :11:45.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:46. > :11:49.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:50. > :11:55.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:56. > :12:02.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:03. > :12:05.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:06. > :12:10.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:11. > :12:14.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:15. > :12:20.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:21. > :12:25.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:26. > :12:29.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:30. > :12:33.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:34. > :12:39.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:40. > :12:43.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:44. > :12:49.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:50. > :12:53.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:54. > :13:00.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:01. > :13:07.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:08. > :13:12.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:13. > :13:17.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:18. > :13:21.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:22. > :13:25.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:26. > :13:32.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:33. > :13:38.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:39. > :13:43.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:44. > :13:46.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:47. > :13:52.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:53. > :14:00.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:01. > :14:04.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:05. > :14:07.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:08. > :14:13.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:14. > :14:16.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:17. > :14:22.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:23. > :14:26.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:27. > :14:31.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:32. > :14:36.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:37. > :14:40.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:41. > :14:47.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:48. > :14:50.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:51. > :14:56.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:57. > :15:05.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:06. > :15:06.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:07. > :15:15.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:16. > :15:19.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:20. > :15:24.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:25. > :15:29.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:30. > :15:34.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:35. > :15:38.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:39. > :15:41.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:42. > :15:48.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:49. > :15:54.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:55. > :16:00.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:01. > :16:04.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:05. > :16:08.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:09. > :16:16.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:17. > :16:23.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:24. > :16:26.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:27. > :16:29.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:30. > :16:34.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:35. > :16:40.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:41. > :16:44.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:45. > :16:50.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:51. > :16:57.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:16:58. > :17:01.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:02. > :17:10.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:11. > :17:15.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:16. > :17:22.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:23. > :17:26.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:27. > :17:31.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:32. > :17:34.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:35. > :17:37.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:38. > :17:42.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:43. > :17:47.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:48. > :17:53.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:54. > :18:07.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:08. > :18:10.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:11. > :18:16.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:17. > :18:22.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:23. > :18:27.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:28. > :18:32.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:33. > :18:39.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:40. > :18:45.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:46. > :18:50.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:51. > :18:53.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:54. > :19:02.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:03. > :19:05.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:06. > :19:09.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:10. > :19:10.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:11. > :19:13.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:14. > :19:19.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:20. > :19:24.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:25. > :19:27.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:28. > :19:29.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:30. > :19:31.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:32. > :19:40.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:41. > :19:47.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:48. > :19:57.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:19:58. > :20:00.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:01. > :20:04.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:05. > :20:06.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:07. > :20:09.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:10. > :20:10.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:11. > :20:15.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:16. > :20:18.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:19. > :20:22.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:23. > :20:24.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:25. > :20:28.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:29. > :20:32.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:33. > :20:35.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:36. > :20:40.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:41. > :20:43.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:44. > :20:46.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:47. > :20:49.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:50. > :20:51.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:52. > :21:00.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:01. > :21:03.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:04. > :21:06.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:07. > :21:13.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:14. > :21:21.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:22. > :21:25.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:26. > :21:29.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:30. > :21:31.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:32. > :21:34.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:35. > :21:36.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:37. > :21:41.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:42. > :21:44.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:45. > :21:47.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:48. > :21:51.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:52. > :21:56.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:57. > :22:01.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:02. > :22:03.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:04. > :22:07.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:08. > :22:09.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:10. > :22:18.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:19. > :22:21.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:22. > :22:23.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:24. > :22:30.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:31. > :22:39.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:40. > :22:43.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:44. > :22:45.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:46. > :22:49.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:50. > :22:52.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:53. > :23:00.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:01. > :23:07.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:08. > :23:08.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:09. > :23:11.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:12. > :23:17.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:18. > :23:19.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:20. > :23:23.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:24. > :23:26.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:27. > :23:32.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:33. > :23:39.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:40. > :23:41.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:42. > :23:56.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:57. > :24:02.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:03. > :24:07.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:08. > :24:11.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:12. > :24:15.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:16. > :24:20.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:21. > :24:25.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:26. > :24:27.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:28. > :24:33.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:34. > :24:40.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:41. > :24:45.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:46. > :24:48.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:49. > :24:51.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:52. > :24:56.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:57. > :25:02.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:03. > :25:05.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:06. > :25:10.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:11. > :25:14.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:15. > :25:18.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:19. > :25:22.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:23. > :25:27.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:28. > :25:30.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:31. > :25:36.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:37. > :25:41.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:42. > :25:46.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:47. > :25:53.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:54. > :25:56.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:25:57. > :26:00.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:01. > :26:20.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:21. > :26:26.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:27. > :26:31.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:32. > :26:35.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:36. > :26:41.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:42. > :26:45.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:46. > :26:49.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:50. > :26:57.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:26:58. > :27:06.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:07. > :27:10.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:11. > :27:15.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:16. > :27:21.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:22. > :27:25.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:26. > :27:28.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:29. > :27:33.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:34. > :27:40.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:41. > :27:45.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:46. > :27:52.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:53. > :28:00.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:01. > :28:04.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:05. > :28:09.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:10. > :28:16.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:17. > :28:22.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:23. > :28:26.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:27. > :28:28.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:29. > :28:36.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:37. > :28:44.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:45. > :28:49.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:50. > :28:54.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:55. > :29:02.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:03. > :29:06.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:07. > :29:16.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:17. > :29:20.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:21. > :29:26.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:27. > :29:32.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:33. > :29:38.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:39. > :29:42.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:43. > :29:45.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:46. > :29:51.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:52. > :29:56.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:57. > :29:59.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:00. > :30:07.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:08. > :30:09.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:10. > :30:22.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:23. > :30:26.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:27. > :30:29.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:30. > :30:34.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:35. > :30:41.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:42. > :30:47.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:48. > :30:52.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:53. > :30:58.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:30:59. > :31:04.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:05. > :31:11.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:12. > :31:14.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:15. > :31:19.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:20. > :31:24.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:25. > :31:29.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:30. > :31:33.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:34. > :31:41.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:42. > :31:45.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:46. > :31:49.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:50. > :31:53.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:54. > :31:56.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:31:57. > :32:01.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:02. > :32:05.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:06. > :32:08.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:09. > :32:11.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:12. > :32:15.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:16. > :32:18.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:19. > :32:21.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:22. > :32:27.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:28. > :32:29.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:30. > :32:35.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:36. > :32:38.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:39. > :32:43.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:44. > :32:46.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:47. > :32:52.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:53. > :32:56.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:57. > :33:02.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:03. > :33:06.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:07. > :33:12.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:13. > :33:16.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:17. > :33:19.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:20. > :33:26.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:27. > :33:31.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:32. > :33:36.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:37. > :33:41.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:42. > :33:47.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:48. > :33:52.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:53. > :33:57.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:33:58. > :34:02.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:03. > :34:05.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:06. > :34:10.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:11. > :34:16.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:17. > :34:20.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:21. > :34:24.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:25. > :34:32.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:33. > :34:35.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:36. > :34:42.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:43. > :34:45.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:46. > :34:51.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:52. > :34:56.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:34:57. > :35:00.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:01. > :35:05.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:06. > :35:10.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:11. > :35:11.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:12. > :35:15.between the budget and the Autumn number will come out somewhere
:35:16. > :35:18.Statement numbers. There was a nice surprise for the Chancellor last
:35:19. > :35:23.Statement numbers. There was a nice month which looked like tax revenues
:35:24. > :35:27.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:28. > :35:31.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:32. > :35:37.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:38. > :35:41.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:42. > :35:45.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:46. > :35:50.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:51. > :35:54.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:55. > :35:58.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:35:59. > :36:03.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:04. > :36:07.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:08. > :36:12.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:13. > :36:18.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:19. > :36:25.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:26. > :36:31.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:32. > :36:36.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:37. > :36:41.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:42. > :36:46.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:47. > :36:50.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:51. > :36:55.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:56. > :36:58.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:36:59. > :37:04.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:05. > :37:10.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:11. > :37:15.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:16. > :37:20.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:21. > :37:26.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:27. > :37:29.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:30. > :37:35.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:36. > :37:40.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:41. > :37:45.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:46. > :37:49.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:50. > :37:53.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:54. > :37:59.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:00. > :38:04.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:05. > :38:08.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:09. > :38:15.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:16. > :38:22.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:23. > :38:28.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:29. > :38:33.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:34. > :38:35.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:36. > :38:37.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:38. > :38:46.you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome
:38:47. > :38:47.to Sunday Politics Scotland. Finding their voice -
:38:48. > :39:03.is the quiet Conservative I think conservatives are starting
:39:04. > :39:10.to become more vocal and open, I think that is to do with the
:39:11. > :39:13.detoxification of the Conservative brand.
:39:14. > :39:15.I'll be speaking to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives,
:39:16. > :39:17.Ruth Davidson, following their conference in Glasgow.
:39:18. > :39:19.And is Scotland's education really bottom of the class?
:39:20. > :39:23.Saying you're a Conservative out loud hasn't always been a popular
:39:24. > :39:25.thing to do in Scotland, but are things changing?
:39:26. > :39:28.The party's been winning new support from people who are opposed
:39:29. > :39:30.to another independence referendum - and that was the key
:39:31. > :39:32.message at this week's Scottish Conservative conference.
:39:33. > :39:35.In a moment we'll be speaking to the party leader, Ruth Davidson,
:39:36. > :39:38.but first, Andrew Black's been trying to find out if the phenomenon
:39:39. > :39:48.known as the Shy Tory is becoming a thing of the past.
:39:49. > :39:56.After years in the wilderness, the Scottish Conservative Party is now
:39:57. > :39:59.having its most successful period in 60 years. More than doubled its
:40:00. > :40:02.number of seats in the last Holyrood election, and thanks to a collapse
:40:03. > :40:07.in the labour vote, it has now become the main opposition party.
:40:08. > :40:11.However, being a Conservative voter has not always been fashionable,
:40:12. > :40:22.especially in Scotland, which has given rise to the term Shy Tory, but
:40:23. > :40:25.given the new-found success, does that mean its supporters are more
:40:26. > :40:28.willing to talk about who the vote for? People were reluctant to say
:40:29. > :40:32.that they were Tory, or that they would vote Conservative, but I
:40:33. > :40:36.think, as you see, they are being more open about it. It is not a bad
:40:37. > :40:39.thing, I have always admitted it to my friends and family. I am only 19
:40:40. > :40:41.so I have only managed to vote Conservative ones, but they are
:40:42. > :40:46.starting to become more vocal and open, I think that's maybe to do
:40:47. > :40:51.with the detoxification of the Conservative brand after the dark
:40:52. > :40:59.days, if you can call it that, of the New Labour Erath. Until recently
:41:00. > :41:07.we were shy, retiring, heading behind-the-scenes supporters. Even
:41:08. > :41:15.the word Tory, I shied from. And in Scotland it is very much seen as
:41:16. > :41:18.elitist. I think that is why everyone is quite. But as you can
:41:19. > :41:23.see from the conference there is a lot more younger people coming
:41:24. > :41:27.through. Use of the end of the Shy Tory was welcomed by even some of
:41:28. > :41:37.the party's strongest critics. Any politician who has the bottle to
:41:38. > :41:45.publicly stop and put their position,... They had the courage to
:41:46. > :41:52.come out and say, actually, these are my politics, these are the
:41:53. > :41:55.issues we need to debate. But for the Conservative leadership, there
:41:56. > :42:00.is more to it than that. The result of the EU referendum has caused
:42:01. > :42:07.divisions in the party. And let us never stop making loudly and clearly
:42:08. > :42:13.the positive, optimistic and passionate case for our precious
:42:14. > :42:17.union of nations and of people. Then there is the Conservatives' ongoing
:42:18. > :42:20.fight against the second independence referendum. Come the
:42:21. > :42:29.party capitalise on recent election success? We will know after the
:42:30. > :42:33.council elections in two months. The leader of the Scottish Conservatives
:42:34. > :42:37.joins me now. Ruth Davidson, can I just ask you about something that
:42:38. > :42:42.has come up this morning? There is a House of Commons cross-party
:42:43. > :42:45.committee on Brexit, which produced a report saying the British
:42:46. > :42:51.government should unilaterally safeguard the position of EU
:42:52. > :42:55.nationals living in Britain. Is that something you would support? I have
:42:56. > :42:58.said from the start I want to make sure people have the assurance they
:42:59. > :43:03.need. That is why I was so pleased that the Prime Minister tried ahead
:43:04. > :43:07.of Article 50 to get that agreement, not just for EU nationals here, but
:43:08. > :43:11.for Brits living abroad as well. I thought it was a real shame that
:43:12. > :43:15.other countries in the EU did not want to do that. But when the Prime
:43:16. > :43:18.Minister laid out her 12 point plan, I was pleased she had it in there as
:43:19. > :43:23.one of our key objectives and one she wanted to get done first. But do
:43:24. > :43:27.you agree with the House of Commons cross-party committee that Britain
:43:28. > :43:31.should unilaterally guarantee the position? I have not read the report
:43:32. > :43:35.to which you are referring, so I am not sure what is in it. I am not in
:43:36. > :43:39.the House of Commons. Sorry about that. I want to make sure we have
:43:40. > :43:43.the insurance people need right here. I am pleased to have seen
:43:44. > :43:47.David Davis has come out and said four people already living here, who
:43:48. > :43:50.have been here for a number of years, the scaremongering that has
:43:51. > :43:54.been going on that there may be some change to their circumstances, is
:43:55. > :43:57.not true. And the query assurances that the Prime Minister has made,
:43:58. > :44:02.wanting to get this done before Article 50, but it is also one of
:44:03. > :44:05.the things she gets done first. Shortly after the referendum last
:44:06. > :44:11.year you said you wanted guarantees for EU nationals living in Britain
:44:12. > :44:16.and you wanted them, your phrase was, pretty quick. You still do not
:44:17. > :44:22.have them. The Prime Minister started to get it -- try to get it
:44:23. > :44:26.done ahead of Article 50. But the Lords are seeing that they want
:44:27. > :44:30.Britain to just do it unilaterally. But I think a House of Commons
:44:31. > :44:36.committee, I absolutely respect it, I have not read that report, I do
:44:37. > :44:42.not sit in the House of Commons, but the Prime Minister has to look at
:44:43. > :44:46.the 2.7 million Brits who live abroad and get assurances for them.
:44:47. > :44:49.She wants to get it now, before the process starts. It is a real shame
:44:50. > :44:54.that other countries said no to that. She also said it is at the top
:44:55. > :44:59.of the 12 point plan to what she wants to get done first. It is a
:45:00. > :45:02.shame that other countries said no to do this right now. It is
:45:03. > :45:05.important that the UK Government has come out strongly to see those
:45:06. > :45:11.people living here, do not listen to the scaremongering, it is not going
:45:12. > :45:15.to change. The Scottish Government has submitted a paper of which the
:45:16. > :45:18.British government is considering on Brexit and it proposes a mechanism
:45:19. > :45:22.British government is considering on by which Scotland can stay in the
:45:23. > :45:26.European free trade area, and therefore the European economic
:45:27. > :45:30.area, and get access to the single market while remaining in the UK. Do
:45:31. > :45:34.you think there is any merit on what they Scottish Government is
:45:35. > :45:38.proposing? The Scottish Government paper had a number of
:45:39. > :45:44.recommendations, and some of them made it into the 12 point plan. But
:45:45. > :45:48.what about their preferred option? No in the Scottish Conservative
:45:49. > :45:52.Party, we ordered an expert panel review looking at trade
:45:53. > :45:56.specifically, and they came to a slightly different view on what they
:45:57. > :46:00.thought was best because the most important issue for Scotland is
:46:01. > :46:09.making sure we stay part of our biggest trading area. Again, I come
:46:10. > :46:12.back to this point, if the Scottish Government's attempts at getting the
:46:13. > :46:18.British government to agree and negotiate on its behalf the
:46:19. > :46:24.particular deal they propose, do you think that is actually going to
:46:25. > :46:29.happen or is the British government, in your view, or should they say no?
:46:30. > :46:36.There are ongoing conversations. That paper had a number of
:46:37. > :46:47.recommendations on it... But I am asking about the key one? The Welsh
:46:48. > :46:50.government joined Labour... The review that came back last week for
:46:51. > :46:55.us took a different course. Having read the work that has gone on, it
:46:56. > :47:01.was led by a former ambassador, a chap that had run the fiscal
:47:02. > :47:04.Association for the time, said there were more important things to look
:47:05. > :47:06.after than what the Scottish Government has said. There is no
:47:07. > :47:21.surprise to any of your viewers that Nicola Sturgeon and I have
:47:22. > :47:24.disagreements about a number of things. Not least some of the things
:47:25. > :47:26.she is asking the UK Government to consider. You have said before on
:47:27. > :47:29.this programme that you accept the Scottish Government to hold another
:47:30. > :47:31.independence referendum, but you do not think they should do it, and you
:47:32. > :47:33.have also said the British government should not block the
:47:34. > :47:39.Scottish Government for doing that. But I'm curious, do you think there
:47:40. > :47:44.is a case for the British government to say you can have a referendum,
:47:45. > :47:47.but not while we are negotiating Brexit, it might be in the interests
:47:48. > :47:52.of everyone if you wait till we know what the Brexit deal is? When you
:47:53. > :47:55.ask that question on a day when yet another poll shows that support for
:47:56. > :48:00.the second independence referendum has fallen, today's poll says it is
:48:01. > :48:04.only a quarter of Scots who would like to be dragged back to that
:48:05. > :48:05.divisive situation. I think the question should be for Nicola
:48:06. > :48:14.Sturgeon, are you going to stand question should be for Nicola
:48:15. > :48:19.up... OK, we will talk to her on the occasion of her party conference. I
:48:20. > :48:25.am asking you, you have a right to hold a referendum, but not while we
:48:26. > :48:31.are negotiating a Brexit deal, do you think that is what the UK
:48:32. > :48:36.Government should say? Myself and the Prime Minister have also agreed
:48:37. > :48:44.and recognised and said the rate to self-determination, which is why in
:48:45. > :48:49.2012 bid was that -- there was a clear mandate, and the process
:48:50. > :48:52.happened. But the majority of the people in Scotland do not want this.
:48:53. > :48:58.Again you're really not addressing... Nicola Sturgeon argues
:48:59. > :49:03.she will be able to hold a referendum whenever she likes.
:49:04. > :49:05.Should she? That is unfair to say I'm not answering the question.
:49:06. > :49:10.There could be another referendum, but the question for the First
:49:11. > :49:14.Minister is, should there be another referendum? At the moment, when she
:49:15. > :49:18.has no clear mandate, she lost her majority, and the majority of Scots
:49:19. > :49:24.do not want it she should not have another referendum. She argued she
:49:25. > :49:25.should be able to have one whenever she likes. Should she? The power for
:49:26. > :49:35.holding a referendum is held at she likes. Should she? The power for
:49:36. > :49:39.Westminster, so in terms of whether a hypothetical referendum to happen,
:49:40. > :49:43.she would still need the agreement for those powers to Passover, and if
:49:44. > :49:47.she wants to change that she should have put that forward in this myth
:49:48. > :49:52.report, to see that the Scottish Government should be in charge of
:49:53. > :49:58.holding a future referendum. In terms of, am I going to try and help
:49:59. > :50:04.the SNP do what they have been doing for the last nine months -- 12
:50:05. > :50:07.months and make it seem another referendum is inevitable, and that
:50:08. > :50:11.is not my job to do that, I am opposing this, I am on the side of
:50:12. > :50:15.the majority of Scots. If she does try to hold one, she will take a
:50:16. > :50:18.massive hit from it because Scots do not want dragged back there, they
:50:19. > :50:26.have told us time and again they do not want dragged back. If she moves
:50:27. > :50:29.against the public opinion, she will pay a heavy price. Can I assume you
:50:30. > :50:35.would not be in favour of another referendum being held on the basis
:50:36. > :50:40.of yes is pro-independence and no is to stay in the UK? My focus is to
:50:41. > :50:46.stop rendering -- referendum to happen because we made a decision
:50:47. > :50:50.three years angle, and we were told it would last a generation. I will
:50:51. > :50:54.not start answering hypothetical questions about the wording of a
:50:55. > :50:55.question I do not want asked is going to be. I am not playing that
:50:56. > :51:08.game. One of the stipulations is that both
:51:09. > :51:12.sides would respect the result. Do you Scottish Government and SNP have
:51:13. > :51:19.breached that? I don't hear that respect of the result. I genuinely
:51:20. > :51:24.do not. I think the first sign of just how the pursuit they were going
:51:25. > :51:27.to do, just how cynical the pursuit was the second independence
:51:28. > :51:31.referendum was going to be, we saw on the day after the Brexit vote.
:51:32. > :51:37.Sturgeon stood up and the votes were still being counted and she said she
:51:38. > :51:42.had already instructed civil servants in Scotland to draw up a
:51:43. > :51:45.second Referendum Bill. She did want to thought of the public or listen
:51:46. > :51:48.to them all come to Parliament, she had already instructed that before
:51:49. > :51:54.people had even had their breakfasting on to work that day. It
:51:55. > :51:59.is absolutely cynical and I think she'll pay heavy price for it.
:52:00. > :52:02.There's a perception, not just amongst the SNP supporters of
:52:03. > :52:04.independence, that the British Government has not been settled in
:52:05. > :52:11.the way they've played this and that it could come to Scotland say, look,
:52:12. > :52:16.you've got an interest in this and here is what we are proposing to
:52:17. > :52:19.devolve to Scotland as part of the repatriation of power from Brussels.
:52:20. > :52:22.I know you will say that is still up for grabs, but the perception is the
:52:23. > :52:34.British Government is coming over and saying no. Do you think there
:52:35. > :52:38.should be a bit more imaginative in making it much more difficult for
:52:39. > :52:39.Nicola Sturgeon to call and the referendum by saying, look here is a
:52:40. > :52:43.shed load of things we could be beat shed load of things we could be beat
:52:44. > :52:49.-- repatriated and it's the interest the people of Scotland and let us
:52:50. > :52:52.get your response to that? I think the way you've asked that question,
:52:53. > :52:57.so the difference between the UK and the Scottish Government and the
:52:58. > :53:03.narrow political dull that fronts and fuels everything the SNP do. And
:53:04. > :53:05.that practical considerations are people working in Scotland and
:53:06. > :53:10.trying to make a living here that the UK Government is trying to
:53:11. > :53:14.protect. In the Prime Minister's speech, she said not a single power
:53:15. > :53:20.being held in Government is going anywhere else. In the first
:53:21. > :53:25.instance, power coming out Brussels go back to the member state and then
:53:26. > :53:34.a mature happen about... We are out of time. Quick one word answers,
:53:35. > :53:38.please. If there's another independence referendum, you have
:53:39. > :53:47.said the SNP will take a hit. How much do you think this day side
:53:48. > :53:52.would win by? The economic case... There is every opportunity. And you
:53:53. > :53:56.will be the next First Minister? That is what we are working towards
:53:57. > :54:00.in 2021. To be a proper, professional ten to Government, a
:54:01. > :54:03.real choice for Scotland and one opposes businesses and people first
:54:04. > :54:10.and not a narrow political ideology of independence first. What you
:54:11. > :54:18.didn't say that was yes, I will be the First Minister! Well, come back
:54:19. > :54:22.to the 2021. The hard work starts now, four and a half years out from
:54:23. > :54:26.the election and we will be fits to fight for that election and we will
:54:27. > :54:27.be a proper alternative Government for Scotland. Ruth Davidson, thank
:54:28. > :54:31.you. Nicola Sturgeon said education
:54:32. > :54:34.would be the defining mission But that mission came under pressure
:54:35. > :54:38.at First Minister's Questions this week as opposition leader
:54:39. > :54:40.after opposition leader had a pop at the First Minister
:54:41. > :54:54.over Scotland's schools. She staked a reputational reforming
:54:55. > :54:59.the schools of Scotland and what have we seen? Literacy standards
:55:00. > :55:03.have slipped, numerous is standards also, curriculum for excellence is
:55:04. > :55:05.failing and now we seen her Education Secretary stalling. She
:55:06. > :55:15.keeps putting at the referendum on the front foot, but everyone else on
:55:16. > :55:20.the back burner. Standardised assessments are being introduced in
:55:21. > :55:23.teacher judgments and there is more data than ever before been published
:55:24. > :55:28.so we can determine how well schools are doing and what more we need to
:55:29. > :55:35.do to support those who work in the front line in our education system.
:55:36. > :55:40.Education budgets are being cut to for years. Over 4000 teachers and a
:55:41. > :55:45.thousand support staff. Pico 150,000 student places in our college. He
:55:46. > :55:49.cut university budgets and slashed fronts for students as well. He now
:55:50. > :56:00.faces the consequences of his own decisions. School league tables have
:56:01. > :56:03.the information here. It is published by the Scottish
:56:04. > :56:09.Government. Our own Government has published this information on
:56:10. > :56:13.experimental information. National school league tables. She promised
:56:14. > :56:19.that would never, ever happen. But that is exactly what is happening.
:56:20. > :56:28.Those other politicians, but what are the issues facing education in
:56:29. > :56:39.Scotland? Lindsay Paterson gave his views on some of the burning
:56:40. > :56:43.questions. The problem in a sense is no one clearly knows, because the
:56:44. > :56:46.problems are so immense. The fundamental thing that most changes
:56:47. > :56:50.what looked -- what children are learning. All the evidence is that
:56:51. > :56:56.things we've been trying to teach them for 15 years or more are
:56:57. > :57:07.causing them to earn less than their counterparts in other countries. I
:57:08. > :57:11.can understand why they've decided to postpone this bill, because being
:57:12. > :57:14.a large number of responses to the consultations on it. On the other
:57:15. > :57:17.hand, it is about the structures of education are not addressing the
:57:18. > :57:20.fundamental point, which is the quality of the curriculum and an age
:57:21. > :57:25.of the learning that the children are doing. The important reforms are
:57:26. > :57:36.what is going to be done about the curriculum assessment and
:57:37. > :57:39.attainment. All the evidence suggests the curriculum for
:57:40. > :57:42.excellence is at the core of the problem and that is the reason why
:57:43. > :57:45.we seen quite a drastic fall in the level of attainment of Scottish
:57:46. > :57:48.children compared with a pastime compared with other countries now.
:57:49. > :57:52.We know from lots of international research that the kind of curriculum
:57:53. > :57:57.that curriculum for excellence is, that is an emphasis on skills rather
:57:58. > :58:02.than knowledge, is ultimately quite bad and even disastrous for the
:58:03. > :58:05.attainment of children. So, very quickly, it ought to be learned in
:58:06. > :58:10.Scotland from these international studies. The whole point of this is
:58:11. > :58:16.misconceived Amanita fundamentally revised what is being done. --
:58:17. > :58:24.fundamentally revised what is being done. The attainment gap has never
:58:25. > :58:27.been completely closed in any period since the beginning of the 20th
:58:28. > :58:31.century. So the chance of Scotland, daily closing it is very small. But
:58:32. > :58:35.what can be done is make progress toward that. You can provide more
:58:36. > :58:38.opportunities, emphasise the things that would enable children are
:58:39. > :58:43.living in poverty ought to circumstances to do better than they
:58:44. > :58:47.have in the past. They can be some progress, but to set up targets of
:58:48. > :58:50.completely ending the attainment gap is a realistic, unless of course,
:58:51. > :58:54.there is to be a change in the quality of what is learned and the
:58:55. > :58:57.criteria of what counts as having learnt it. In other words, dumbing
:58:58. > :59:09.down rather making sure everyone learns the same kind of quality
:59:10. > :59:12.things. Standardised assessments are the only way we can get object
:59:13. > :59:15.things. Standardised assessments are neutral scientific evidence on what
:59:16. > :59:19.is going on. They are not the owner of measuring progress, but without
:59:20. > :59:24.them, any other way will be purely subjective and wouldn't get enough
:59:25. > :59:28.hard evidence for policymakers. So standardised assessments of the way
:59:29. > :59:35.in which education can achieve the same kind of objective, and
:59:36. > :59:38.neutrality, that we would expect of a new scientific project. It has to
:59:39. > :59:41.be that kind of evidence if we are not so just speculate on what
:59:42. > :59:52.children are achieving rather than measuring it. League tables can
:59:53. > :59:56.become controversial and if they are used purely for competitive
:59:57. > :00:01.purposes, they are rather dangerous. But that's not the league tables as
:00:02. > :00:04.such, but the ways in which they are used in public debate and in
:00:05. > :00:09.newspapers, media and conversations amongst parents and so on. The
:00:10. > :00:13.tables themselves or the publishing of information and the longer that
:00:14. > :00:17.is complex and addresses all the different temperatures of education
:00:18. > :00:21.and the set of context, there is no more reason to object to information
:00:22. > :00:25.on schools than would be to object to informational universities. --
:00:26. > :00:27.information on universities. Well, to disucss this,
:00:28. > :00:30.earlier I spoke to James Dornan from the SNP, who's also convenor
:00:31. > :00:32.of Holyrood's Education Committee, and Alex Cole-Hamilton
:00:33. > :00:43.from the Lib Dems. Alex Cole-Hamilton, what you make of
:00:44. > :00:48.the delay in the education bill? It is astonishing but not surprising.
:00:49. > :00:52.We have local Government elections coming up and are a lot of questions
:00:53. > :00:56.record on education. It isn't in the record on education. It isn't in the
:00:57. > :01:00.-- Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to be judged on, yet consistently,
:01:01. > :01:02.this Government have failed the children in Scotland that they are
:01:03. > :01:07.sliding down the international league tables as a result of the
:01:08. > :01:12.scores that were announced earlier this year and it is a real millstone
:01:13. > :01:16.around the neck of the SNP. So it's not surprising it has been delayed.
:01:17. > :01:20.But were always demanded that politicians should think about
:01:21. > :01:24.things and listen to what the people are saying to them, rather than just
:01:25. > :01:30.coming up with snap headlines and John Swinney argues that it will be
:01:31. > :01:34.perfectly sensible to say, I've got a response to this may change my
:01:35. > :01:39.ideas on it, so I want a bit more time. That would have currency if
:01:40. > :01:42.the SNP were listening. But if you look at the standardised assessments
:01:43. > :01:51.they want to bring in, which is effectively national testing by any
:01:52. > :01:54.other name, they are going people like the EIS who said it will crush
:01:55. > :02:10.staff and pupils alike. Yes, if I believe the Education
:02:11. > :02:13.Secretary was listening to professionals, then full marks to
:02:14. > :02:19.him, but he is not. And I think national testing is a perfect
:02:20. > :02:21.example of that. James Dornan, I assume you would not claim that the
:02:22. > :02:27.record on education is anything other than pretty poor at the
:02:28. > :02:31.moment. Do you think John Swinney is right to take a bit more time to
:02:32. > :02:35.consider what to do about it? It is more important to get things right
:02:36. > :02:40.than do things early. You take the time to make sure what is going to
:02:41. > :02:43.come out in the bill is exactly what the Cabinet secretaries looking for
:02:44. > :02:48.and that what the people of Scotland require. I heard Alec talking about
:02:49. > :02:51.the fight the Tories are in favour of it doesn't necessarily mean it's
:02:52. > :02:55.a bad thing, but he is part of a Government that spent... I was
:02:56. > :03:01.wondering how long it will take you to mention that. It's more than to
:03:02. > :03:02.sentences. That because I'm a gentleman thought I would
:03:03. > :03:06.sentences. That because I'm a other point first. Of course the
:03:07. > :03:15.Cabinet Secretary is right to take his time. But also, if we talk about
:03:16. > :03:25.standardised assessments... Right, OK. They said in 2015 we needed a
:03:26. > :03:30.robust system and had to learn about the learning in progress, so this is
:03:31. > :03:33.the only way to do that. It has today standardised system right
:03:34. > :03:36.across the whole of education. We have to know how children are doing.
:03:37. > :03:41.Be that only works... What I have to know how children are doing.
:03:42. > :03:45.still unclear about is that as you do tests and you produce the results
:03:46. > :03:50.and publish them in whatever way, school by school or whatever, then
:03:51. > :03:54.fine. But there was talk that these would not be raw results, but there
:03:55. > :04:00.be mixed with teacher assessments, which makes the whole thing entirely
:04:01. > :04:05.subjective. Which is to be? Which do you think it should be? The
:04:06. > :04:12.important thing is that we get the information and we have the
:04:13. > :04:18.information. It has to be that the information... We have to know how
:04:19. > :04:23.different schools are doing. We have to have pupils are doing in terms of
:04:24. > :04:26.where they are in the system. But my point is if you have an element of
:04:27. > :04:29.teacher assessment in the results, then that is what you publish.
:04:30. > :04:34.You're not getting that data you are talking about, because... Be them as
:04:35. > :04:41.a separation between both of those things. You have to have the actual
:04:42. > :04:45.data. What is wrong with that? If you publish date of that kind in any
:04:46. > :04:49.format that will invariably lead to a league tables, as we saw under the
:04:50. > :04:53.Conservative Government under Margaret Thatcher. The result of
:04:54. > :04:56.that and if you listen to teaching unions and teachers, you can see
:04:57. > :05:02.pressure on staff within primary schools and hot housing kids so that
:05:03. > :05:09.they can make sure their school shows up favourably on the league
:05:10. > :05:14.tables. I can see why some people in the trade unions may be against it
:05:15. > :05:16.because it puts pressure on them if they are not performing well. I
:05:17. > :05:22.cannot see that argument applied to they are not performing well. I
:05:23. > :05:26.either the interests of the children or their parents. Why is it not
:05:27. > :05:29.reasonable for parents to want to know how their children's School
:05:30. > :05:32.compares against other similar schools? It is reasonable for
:05:33. > :05:35.appearance to want to know how their children are getting on in class,
:05:36. > :05:39.but you would also want to know that your children are not being
:05:40. > :05:44.artificially hot housed to one single day of exams, when the
:05:45. > :05:49.curriculum for excellence... Your argument would make sense if we
:05:50. > :06:11.said, standardised tests are not the way to do this, this is our version
:06:12. > :06:22.of how we will compare schools with others so we know which are
:06:23. > :06:31.performing well and which badly, but you do not have any alternative
:06:32. > :06:33.suggestion. Take Edinburgh, for example, there has been standardised
:06:34. > :06:38.assessment in Edinburgh for a while, but that is not published in league
:06:39. > :06:40.tables that invariably what the government are planning will be to,
:06:41. > :06:43.but it gives educational authorities and schools and understanding -- and
:06:44. > :06:45.understanding of what is happening within schools. So you're saying
:06:46. > :06:48.that standardised testing is OK, and league tables ROK as long as the
:06:49. > :06:50.secret? Not at all. This is a national framework. I am talking
:06:51. > :06:52.about the way individually benchmark the progress of the individual
:06:53. > :06:55.children within schools. This is not a secret. It is used within schools
:06:56. > :06:57.to see what need certain classes and individual children have, but let us
:06:58. > :07:00.remember the pressure we are putting our kids under. A charity which
:07:01. > :07:02.deals with the mental health primary school children published a survey
:07:03. > :07:06.which said 60% of primary seven children worried about something.
:07:07. > :07:09.Mango I would suggest that it is a disaster, the system has been geared
:07:10. > :07:14.to fail the children when the exact opposite is the case. We cannot talk
:07:15. > :07:17.about pigeonholing children while at the same time having curriculum for
:07:18. > :07:22.excellence in there. It makes no sense. But doesn't your idea of
:07:23. > :07:27.standardised testing, the Conservatives are calling for the --
:07:28. > :07:31.a review of curriculum for excellence. Arguably that has
:07:32. > :07:34.already been implemented by John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon because
:07:35. > :07:39.the standardised testing singles against the grain of curriculum for
:07:40. > :07:43.excellence. Perhaps correctly, given the problems with it, but it is not
:07:44. > :07:46.consistent with its. The whole thing was supposed to be about individual
:07:47. > :07:53.assessment, there was even talk in primary schools of children taking
:07:54. > :07:55.part in their own assessment. That not fit at all with standardised
:07:56. > :07:58.testing in primary schools. Curriculum for excellence is about
:07:59. > :08:02.giving the broader base and that easier way of learning for the
:08:03. > :08:10.child. But we still have to know that insurgents subjects that
:08:11. > :08:15.children are reaching specific benchmarks we can target resources
:08:16. > :08:18.where they are required. Curriculum for excellence has proven to be a
:08:19. > :08:23.great success and trendy schools, it is starting to show it can be a
:08:24. > :08:26.great success in primary schools -- a great success in secondary
:08:27. > :08:28.schools. We have to leave it there. Now time to look back
:08:29. > :08:31.at the week gone by and ahead to the next seven
:08:32. > :08:37.days, in The Week Ahead. This week, I'm joined
:08:38. > :08:39.by the journalist Kathleen Nutt, who writes for the National among
:08:40. > :08:51.others, and the political David, this referendum thing,
:08:52. > :08:58.something has got to give. Theresa May says no, it should not happen,
:08:59. > :09:08.and Nicola Sturgeon increasingly stridently saying yes, it will. What
:09:09. > :09:10.gives? In two weeks Article 50 will be triggered, and we have the SNP
:09:11. > :09:15.conference. It is unlikely that Nicola Sturgeon will use the
:09:16. > :09:16.conference to formally call for another referendum, but she might
:09:17. > :09:19.conference to formally call for request the power to do so, but
:09:20. > :09:23.things do feel like they are coming to a head. There was an element of
:09:24. > :09:29.doublespeak that the Scottish Tory conference which I find interesting.
:09:30. > :09:35.Speaker after speaker said we will oppose a referendum, we will do
:09:36. > :09:36.everything possible to stop a referendum, but every journalist
:09:37. > :09:39.knows behind the scenes they are effectively saying they have no
:09:40. > :09:44.choice to agree -- back to agree to one if it is requested, but they
:09:45. > :09:53.will attach caveats. The caveats being to do with timing? Yes, timing
:09:54. > :10:03.is the crucial thing. Some people think it should be after Brexit. I
:10:04. > :10:07.think after Theresa May's speech on Friday, the chances of a second
:10:08. > :10:14.independence referendum are much stronger now. I think she came up to
:10:15. > :10:25.Scotland and gave the SNP a hard time for raising the issue of
:10:26. > :10:32.constitutional politics,... I think it was not politically astute of her
:10:33. > :10:39.to raise the prospect of power is coming back in devolved areas, that
:10:40. > :10:44.these powers over agriculture, environment and fisheries would stay
:10:45. > :10:50.with Westminster. Rather than coming up to Holyrood. This would be
:10:51. > :10:54.interpreted as a weakening Scotland at a time when she wants to
:10:55. > :11:00.strengthen the union, which I think will backfire on her. Conservatives
:11:01. > :11:04.like Ruth Davidson and her colleagues, they say, it is not fair
:11:05. > :11:08.to say that, when I say, could you not be a bit more imaginative about
:11:09. > :11:13.that? Would it not be possible for the British government to say, this
:11:14. > :11:17.is a fantastic opportunity, here is what we're proposing, and challenge
:11:18. > :11:22.the Scottish Nationalists to reject it. Do you not think they could be
:11:23. > :11:28.more imaginative? On the powers? On they could talk about immigration.
:11:29. > :11:34.Politicians could always be what imaginative. They are coming over as
:11:35. > :11:38.just seeing no. They are hamstrung by promises made by leave
:11:39. > :11:43.campaigners, when they got carried away saying, there will be all these
:11:44. > :11:46.amazing powers. Now they are pulling back slightly. I find it slightly
:11:47. > :11:52.difficult to believe that a second independence referendum will turn on
:11:53. > :11:58.agricultural and fishery subsidies. And the weakening of devolution. It
:11:59. > :12:04.is more nuanced than that. It is more in the remake of shared powers,
:12:05. > :12:11.and about a change of middleman, really. Now we're leaving the
:12:12. > :12:14.European Union, the subsidies and so one... In truth it is fiendishly
:12:15. > :12:21.difficult and can be interpreted in any way you like, obviously, but I
:12:22. > :12:26.think for most voters, they will not be altogether interested. On the
:12:27. > :12:29.other side, just some obvious examples, there might be a case for
:12:30. > :12:33.the British government saying we have to have control over
:12:34. > :12:39.agriculture for example in times of emergency we need food security.
:12:40. > :12:44.There are also arguments about common standards across the UK,
:12:45. > :12:50.which is in the interest of Scottish Parliament cos you are exposed
:12:51. > :12:54.mainly to England. I think the SNP and Scottish Government would agree
:12:55. > :13:01.with that, they will work together on the shared powers, but at the
:13:02. > :13:03.same time, we're talking about an independence referendum. That does
:13:04. > :13:09.not necessarily need to happen if Theresa May actually agreed to your
:13:10. > :13:15.proposals, which would allow Scottish to remain. Can Nicola
:13:16. > :13:20.Sturgeon backdown on a referendum? Scottish to remain. Can Nicola
:13:21. > :13:24.She has made it very difficult for her to backdown. If she does, she
:13:25. > :13:30.will lose a tremendous amount of face, like Gordon Brown in 2007 with
:13:31. > :13:34.the election. I think the pressure is on balance for calling another
:13:35. > :13:40.one. Can she backdown? If Theresa May promises to keep Scotland in the
:13:41. > :13:42.single market, in a special Brexit deal, but otherwise no.
:13:43. > :13:45.All right, we have to leave it there.
:13:46. > :13:49.I'll be back at the same time next week.
:13:50. > :13:57.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.