:00:34. > :00:36.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:37. > :00:40.She faces huge political fights over Brexit, Scottish independence,
:00:41. > :00:53.After a tumultuous political week, we'll analyse the PM's prospects.
:00:54. > :00:55.With chatter increasing about a possible early General Election,
:00:56. > :01:00.Jeremy Corbyn's campaign chief joins me live.
:01:01. > :01:03.NHS bosses warn health services in England are facing "mission
:01:04. > :01:07.impossible" and waiting times for operations will rocket,
:01:08. > :01:10.unless hospitals are given more cash this year.
:01:11. > :01:16.The chief executive of NHS Providers joins me live.
:01:17. > :01:19.The stand-off continues - Theresa May says "Not now"
:01:20. > :01:22.but Nicola Sturgeon insists the will of the Scottish Parliament
:01:23. > :01:25.will prevail and there WILL be a second independence referendum -
:01:26. > :01:36.All that to come before 12:15pm, and I'll also be talking
:01:37. > :01:39.to the former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg
:01:40. > :01:41.from his party's spring conference in York.
:01:42. > :01:46.With me here in the studio, throughout the programme,
:01:47. > :01:47.three of the country's top political commentators:
:01:48. > :01:53.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:54. > :01:55.They'll be tweeting their thoughts using #bbcsp.
:01:56. > :01:58.So, the political challenges facing Theresa May are stacking up.
:01:59. > :02:04.As well as negotiating Britain's exit from the EU,
:02:05. > :02:07.the PM must now deal with SNP demands for a second referendum
:02:08. > :02:12.on Scottish independence, backbenchers agitating against cuts
:02:13. > :02:15.to school budgets, and a humiliated Chancellor forced to u-turn on a key
:02:16. > :02:20.budget measure just one week after announcing it.
:02:21. > :02:21.Here's Adam Fleming on aturbulent political week
:02:22. > :02:38.Monday, 11:30am, TV crews gather in the residence of the First
:02:39. > :02:40.Minister of Scotland, who's got a surprise.
:02:41. > :02:43.She wants a vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK
:02:44. > :02:47.By taking the steps I have set out today I am ensuring that Scotland's
:02:48. > :02:50.future will be decided, not just by me, the
:02:51. > :02:51.Scottish Government, or the
:02:52. > :02:53.SNP, it will be decided by the people of Scotland.
:02:54. > :03:03.Westminster, 6:25pm the same day, MPs reject
:03:04. > :03:07.amendments to the legislation authorising the Prime Minister to
:03:08. > :03:21.The Bill ceremonially heads to the Lords where peers abandoned
:03:22. > :03:22.attempts to change it and it becomes law.
:03:23. > :03:29.But Downing Street doesn't trigger Article 50 as many had expected.
:03:30. > :03:32.Some say they were spooked by Nicola Sturgeon.
:03:33. > :03:48.We get an e-mail from the Treasury can the
:03:49. > :03:50.We get an e-mail from the Treasury cancelling
:03:51. > :04:01.the planned rise in National Insurance for
:04:02. > :04:03.the self-employed announced the budget.
:04:04. > :04:05.It's just minutes before Prime Minister's Questions at noon.
:04:06. > :04:07.The trend towards greater self-employment does create a
:04:08. > :04:09.We will bring forward further proposals
:04:10. > :04:12.but we will not bring forward increases to NICs later in this
:04:13. > :04:16.It seems to me like a government in a bit of chaos here.
:04:17. > :04:19.By making this change today we are listening to our colleagues
:04:20. > :04:23.fulfil both the letter and the spirit of our manifesto tax
:04:24. > :04:32.Thursday, 7am, Conservative campaign HQ and the
:04:33. > :04:35.Electoral Commission fines the party ?70,000 for misreporting spending
:04:36. > :04:38.But that's not what the Prime Minister
:04:39. > :04:44.Because at 12:19pm she gives her verdict on a
:04:45. > :04:49.We should be working together, not pulling apart.
:04:50. > :04:51.We should be working together to get that
:04:52. > :04:52.right deal for Scotland, that
:04:53. > :04:57.So, as I say, that's my job as Prime Minister and
:04:58. > :05:00.so for that reason I say to the SNP now is not the time.
:05:01. > :05:03.Friday and time for the faithful to gather.
:05:04. > :05:04.SNP activists at their spring conference
:05:05. > :05:15.Conservatives in Cardiff to hear the Prime Minister
:05:16. > :05:19.promote her plan for a more meritocratic Brexit Britain.
:05:20. > :05:21.At 11:10am comes some news about a newspaper that's frankly
:05:22. > :05:28.I'm thrilled and excited to be the new editor of The
:05:29. > :05:30.Evening Standard and, you know, with so many
:05:31. > :05:31.big issues in our world what
:05:32. > :05:37.good analysis, great news journalism.
:05:38. > :05:41.It's a really important time for good journalism that The
:05:42. > :05:43.Evening Standard is going to provide.
:05:44. > :05:50.There was no let-up yesterday as Gordon Brown launched proposals
:05:51. > :05:55.Under my proposals we keep the Barnett
:05:56. > :05:59.Formula, we keep the fiscal transfers, but we also bring the
:06:00. > :06:03.and fisheries back to the Scottish Parliament.
:06:04. > :06:06.And just think, all this and we're still counting down to the
:06:07. > :06:24.What a week in politics. It has been a torrid week for the government,
:06:25. > :06:28.Isabel Oakeshott, but does Theresa May shake it off, or is this a sign
:06:29. > :06:31.of worse to come? We may all be feeling a bit breathless after the
:06:32. > :06:39.events of last week and we are in for a a long war of attrition with
:06:40. > :06:43.the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon's strategy will be to foster over lengthy
:06:44. > :06:48.periods of time as much resentment and anger as she can in Scotland and
:06:49. > :06:53.try to create the impression that independence is somehow inevitable.
:06:54. > :06:57.Is Scotland the biggest challenge for Theresa May in the next year or
:06:58. > :07:00.so? I think it probably is because if you look at how relatively easily
:07:01. > :07:05.the Brexit bill went through on an issue where people could hardly feel
:07:06. > :07:08.more passionate in the Commons, and actually despite all the potential
:07:09. > :07:12.drama it has gone through quite smoothly. To go back to your
:07:13. > :07:16.original question, she just carries on. Don't underestimate the basic
:07:17. > :07:21.quiet and will towards Theresa May amongst the majority of Tory
:07:22. > :07:25.backbenchers. Yes, there are difficult little issues over school
:07:26. > :07:29.funding, sorry, it's not a little issue, it is a big one but she will
:07:30. > :07:33.get over that and treat each thing as it comes and keep pressing on.
:07:34. > :07:38.Has she not called Nicola Sturgeon's Bluff in that the First Minister
:07:39. > :07:43.said I want a referendum, here is roughly when I wanted, the Prime
:07:44. > :07:47.Minister says you're not having one. What happens next? She has done
:07:48. > :07:52.quite well and impact the progress Theresa May made this week in
:07:53. > :07:55.frustrating Nicola Sturgeon was evident when Nicola Sturgeon said,
:07:56. > :07:59.OK, maybe we can talk about the timing after. Nicola Sturgeon has
:08:00. > :08:02.already been the first one to blink. I would slightly disagree with
:08:03. > :08:06.Isabel Oakeshott, I don't agree Scotland will be the biggest hurdle
:08:07. > :08:11.for her. What this week showed as is Theresa May... It was a reality
:08:12. > :08:15.bites week. Theresa May is juggling four mammoth crises at the same
:08:16. > :08:18.time, Brexit obviously which I still think will be the biggest challenge
:08:19. > :08:25.to get a good deal, Trump left field who popped up at GCHQ on Friday and
:08:26. > :08:30.Scotland and the fiscal challenge, this enormous great problem, and it
:08:31. > :08:36.reinforced the point this is not an easy time in politics. The budget is
:08:37. > :08:40.over four years. That was one small problem, the immediate problem is
:08:41. > :08:43.how to fill the social care crisis and the ageing demographic. This is
:08:44. > :08:46.not normal times in British politics and Theresa May does not have a
:08:47. > :08:51.normal workload on her plate, hence why I think we will see more
:08:52. > :08:56.mistakes made as time goes on and as she has this almost impossible
:08:57. > :08:59.workload to juggle. How tempted do you think the Prime Minister is to
:09:00. > :09:04.call an early election? There is more chatter about it now. Is she
:09:05. > :09:07.tempted and if there is will she succumb? I will answer that in a
:09:08. > :09:11.second as Harold Wilson used to say. I want to agree, disagree with the
:09:12. > :09:15.rest of the panel about how she has out manipulated Nicola Sturgeon this
:09:16. > :09:19.week. I think Nicola Sturgeon expected Theresa May to say no to
:09:20. > :09:24.her expected timetable. It would be amazing if she had said yes. She
:09:25. > :09:28.expected her to say no but Sturgeon catalyst that will fuel support for
:09:29. > :09:34.her cause. There is no sign of that. The latest poll this morning shows
:09:35. > :09:39.66-44 against independence and only 13% think they would be better off
:09:40. > :09:44.with an independent Scotland and a clear majority do not want a second
:09:45. > :09:47.referendum. But the calculation of resistance from Westminster combined
:09:48. > :09:50.with Brexit which hasn't started yet, I think this is her
:09:51. > :09:54.calculation, she didn't expect Theresa May to say, sure, go ahead,
:09:55. > :09:59.I'm sure she expected Theresa May to say no, you can't have it at your
:10:00. > :10:03.desired timetable. On the wider point, I think Theresa May is in a
:10:04. > :10:07.fascinating position, she is both strong because she faces weak
:10:08. > :10:12.opposition and is ahead in the opinion polls. But faces the most
:10:13. > :10:16.daunting agenda of any Prime Minister for 40 or 50 years, I
:10:17. > :10:20.think. So it's a weird combination. I don't think she wants to call an
:10:21. > :10:23.election. I don't think she has thought about how you would
:10:24. > :10:27.manipulate it, what the trigger would be, and whether she's got the
:10:28. > :10:33.energy and space to prepare for and then mount a campaign was beginning
:10:34. > :10:38.the Brexit negotiation. Now, you could see the cause would be the
:10:39. > :10:41.small majorities that will make her life hellish, which it will do.
:10:42. > :10:45.Whether a landslide would help is another question, they can be
:10:46. > :10:49.difficult too. But I think the problems outweigh the advantages of
:10:50. > :10:53.going early. Do you think she would go for an early election? I don't
:10:54. > :10:57.and I think you have to look at the rhetoric coming out of No 10 which
:10:58. > :11:00.is so firm on this question, it is a delicious prospect for us as
:11:01. > :11:03.commentators to think there might be an election around the corner but
:11:04. > :11:08.they are so firm on this I can't see it happening. I agree, we are in
:11:09. > :11:10.unanimous agreement on this one. It is superficially attractive because
:11:11. > :11:14.she would love the big majority and she would get a lot more through
:11:15. > :11:17.Parliament especially with Brexit. The nitty-gritty of it makes an
:11:18. > :11:22.early General Election this year almost impossible. How do you write
:11:23. > :11:27.a manifesto on high Brexit versus soft Brexit, it opens up a Pandora's
:11:28. > :11:31.box of uncertainties. And there is enough with the European elections.
:11:32. > :11:35.The EU will say are we negotiating with you or the person who may
:11:36. > :11:39.replace you? How do you keep the Tory party united going to an
:11:40. > :11:43.election? How do you call one, with a vote of no confidence in yourself
:11:44. > :11:44.you may end up losing. Easy on paper but difficult in practice. We shall
:11:45. > :11:46.see. So if Theresa May did go
:11:47. > :11:48.for an early election this spring, The party's campaigns
:11:49. > :11:59.and elections chief Andrew Gwynne Andrew Gwynne, the government, as we
:12:00. > :12:02.have just been talking about, executed one of the most
:12:03. > :12:05.embarrassing U-turns in recent history this week. It has been a
:12:06. > :12:09.torrid time for the Theresa May government. Why are the Tories still
:12:10. > :12:14.so chipper? The Labour Party has been on an
:12:15. > :12:17.early election footing since before Christmas and we are preparing
:12:18. > :12:21.ourselves for that eventuality in case that does come. That means that
:12:22. > :12:26.we've got to get ourselves into a position whereby we can not only
:12:27. > :12:32.challenge the government but we can also offer a valuable alternative
:12:33. > :12:38.for the British people to choose from should that election arise. So,
:12:39. > :12:41.would you welcome an early General Election? Well, of course, I don't
:12:42. > :12:44.want this government to be in power so of course if there is an
:12:45. > :12:48.opportunity to put a case to the British people as to why there is a
:12:49. > :12:53.better way, and I believe the Labour way is the better way than of course
:12:54. > :12:58.we would want to put that case to the country. So, would Labour vote
:12:59. > :13:02.in the Commons for an early election? Well, of course as an
:13:03. > :13:06.opposition, not wanting to be in opposition, wanting to be in
:13:07. > :13:10.government should the government put forward a measure in accordance with
:13:11. > :13:13.the Fixed-term Parliaments Act then that's something we would very
:13:14. > :13:17.seriously have to consider. I know you would have to consider it but
:13:18. > :13:22.would you vote for an early election or not? Well, of course we want to
:13:23. > :13:25.be the government so if the current government puts forward measures to
:13:26. > :13:29.bring forward a General Election we would want to put our case to the
:13:30. > :13:34.British public and that's one of the jobs that I've been given, together
:13:35. > :13:37.Labour Party organisation early into a position where we can fight a
:13:38. > :13:42.General Election -- organisationally. For the avoidance
:13:43. > :13:46.of doubt, if the Government work to issue a motion in the Commons for an
:13:47. > :13:50.early election, the Labour Party would vote for an early election?
:13:51. > :13:54.It would be very difficult not, Andrew. If the Government wants to
:13:55. > :13:57.dissolve parliament, wants a General Election, we don't want the Tories
:13:58. > :14:02.in government, we want to be in government and we want to have that
:14:03. > :14:04.opportunity to put that case to the British people.
:14:05. > :14:13.Are you ready for an early election? You say you have been on a war all
:14:14. > :14:15.but since the Labour conference last autumn, but are you ready for one?
:14:16. > :14:18.How big is the election fighting fund? We have substantial amounts of
:14:19. > :14:23.money in our fighting fund, that is true, because not only has the
:14:24. > :14:28.Labour Party managed to eliminate its own financial deficit that it
:14:29. > :14:36.inherited from previous election campaigns, we have also managed to
:14:37. > :14:41.build up a substantial fund in the off chance we have an election. We
:14:42. > :14:45.have also expanded massively operations at Labour HQ, we are
:14:46. > :14:48.taking on additional staff, and one of the jobs that myself and Ian
:14:49. > :14:52.Lavery who I job share with are currently doing is to go around the
:14:53. > :14:56.Parliamentary Labour Party to make sure that Labour colleagues have the
:14:57. > :14:59.support and the resources that they need, should they have to face the
:15:00. > :15:04.electorate in their constituencies. So you are on a war footing, ready
:15:05. > :15:08.for the fight, you say you would vote for the fight, so have you got
:15:09. > :15:13.your tax and spend policies ready to roll out? That is something the
:15:14. > :15:18.shadow Treasury team will be discussing. One of the things is, if
:15:19. > :15:21.there is an early General Election, the normal timetable for these
:15:22. > :15:26.things gets fast-track because our policy decision-making body, its
:15:27. > :15:31.annual conference, we have the national policy forum that creates
:15:32. > :15:34.policies suggestions. You have been on a war footing since the last
:15:35. > :15:38.Labour conference, that is what Mr Corbyn told us. So you must have a
:15:39. > :15:43.fair idea of what policies you would fight an early election on. How much
:15:44. > :15:47.extra per year would you spend on the NHS? Well, look, I'm not going
:15:48. > :15:51.to set out the Labour manifesto for an election that hasn't been called.
:15:52. > :15:56.I'm just asking you about the NHS. You must have a policy for that. We
:15:57. > :16:01.have a policy for the NHS. So how much extra? I will not set out
:16:02. > :16:05.Labour's tax-and-spend policies here on The Sunday Politics when there
:16:06. > :16:09.hasn't even been election called. You said you had been on a war
:16:10. > :16:15.footing and you are prepared to vote for one, so if you can't Tommy that,
:16:16. > :16:19.can you tell me what the corporation rate tax on company profits be under
:16:20. > :16:26.a Labour government -- tell me that. You will have to be patient. I have.
:16:27. > :16:29.And wait for Mrs May to trigger an early election. If there is an
:16:30. > :16:33.election on the 4th of May the rich would have to be issued on the 27th
:16:34. > :16:39.of March, so that's not long to wait. If that date passes we aren't
:16:40. > :16:44.having an election on the 4th of May and the normal timetable for policy
:16:45. > :16:48.development will continue. All right. You lost Copeland, I think
:16:49. > :16:51.you were in charge of a by-election for Labour, your national poll
:16:52. > :16:57.ratings are still dire, even after week of terrible times for the
:16:58. > :17:01.Tories. Sometimes you even lose local government by-elections in
:17:02. > :17:05.safe seats, including in the place you are now, in Salford. How long
:17:06. > :17:10.does Mr Corbyn have to turn this around? Well, look, the issue of the
:17:11. > :17:14.Labour leadership was settled last year. The last thing the Labour
:17:15. > :17:18.Party now needs is another period of introspection with the Labour Party
:17:19. > :17:24.merely talks to the Labour Party. We are now on an election footing in
:17:25. > :17:29.case Mrs May does trigger an early General Election. We need to be
:17:30. > :17:33.talking to the British people are not to ourselves. So any speculation
:17:34. > :17:38.about the Labour leadership might excite you in the media but actually
:17:39. > :17:41.for us in the Labour Party it's about re-engaging and reconnecting
:17:42. > :17:45.with the voters. Rather than being excited, I feel quite daunted at the
:17:46. > :17:51.prospect of an early election. So I wouldn't get that right. Normally,
:17:52. > :17:55.given the number of mistakes this government has made, and its
:17:56. > :17:59.mid-term, you would expect any self-respecting opposition to be
:18:00. > :18:04.about ten points ahead. On the latest polls this morning you are 17
:18:05. > :18:09.behind. There is a 27-30 point gap from where you should normally be as
:18:10. > :18:12.an opposition. Are you telling me that if that doesn't change, you
:18:13. > :18:18.still fight the General Election with Mr Corbyn?
:18:19. > :18:26.These are matters for the future. I believe the leadership issue was
:18:27. > :18:30.settled last year. We have had two leadership contest in two years.
:18:31. > :18:34.Would you seriously contemplate going into the next election, if it
:18:35. > :18:40.is early I perfectly understand Jeremy Corbyn is your man, but if it
:18:41. > :18:44.is not until 2020, and you are still 17 points behind in the polls, will
:18:45. > :18:48.you go into the next election like that? There is a lot of future
:18:49. > :18:58.looking and speculation there, I don't know what the future holds,
:18:59. > :19:00.where the Labour Party will be in 12 months let alone by 2020 summit
:19:01. > :19:03.cross those bridges when we come to it. My main challenge is to make
:19:04. > :19:06.sure the Labour Party is in the best possible place organisationally to
:19:07. > :19:09.fight an election, that's my challenge and I'm up for that to
:19:10. > :19:16.make sure we are in the best possible place to make sure Labour
:19:17. > :19:22.returns as many Labour MPs as possible. Thank you for joining us.
:19:23. > :19:24.And we're joined now from the Liberal Democrats' spring
:19:25. > :19:26.conference in York by the former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.
:19:27. > :19:35.Good morning. In his conference speech today, Tim Farron lumps
:19:36. > :19:40.Theresa May with Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. In
:19:41. > :19:48.what way is Mrs May similar to Marine Le Pen? Of course he is not
:19:49. > :19:54.saying Theresa May is identical to Marine Le Pen, I think what Tim
:19:55. > :19:58.Wilby spelling out shortly in his speech is that we need to be aware
:19:59. > :20:05.what's going on in the world, the International settlement that was
:20:06. > :20:11.arrived at after the First World -- Second World War, that bound
:20:12. > :20:16.supranational organisations is under attack from characters as diverse as
:20:17. > :20:20.Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, and that by side in so
:20:21. > :20:24.ostentatiously with Donald Trump and pursuing this very hard Brexit,
:20:25. > :20:29.Theresa May appears to be giving succour to that much more
:20:30. > :20:33.isolationist chauvinist view of the world than the multilateral approach
:20:34. > :20:38.that Britain has subscribed to for a long time. The exact words he plans
:20:39. > :20:47.to use are welcome to the New World order, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump,
:20:48. > :20:52.Marine Le Pen, Theresa May, aggressive and teenage to, anti-EU,
:20:53. > :20:57.nationalistic. In what way is Mrs May fitting into any of that? In
:20:58. > :21:03.what way is she similar to Vladimir Putin? I'm not aware she has
:21:04. > :21:08.interfered with other people's elections. The clue is in the quote
:21:09. > :21:13.you just read out, which is the world order. The world order over
:21:14. > :21:17.the last half century or more, by the way a lesson I'm afraid we have
:21:18. > :21:22.to learn in Europe because of the terrible bloodshed of two world was
:21:23. > :21:26.in the space of a few decades, was based on the idea might is not
:21:27. > :21:32.right. Strong arm leaders cannot throw their weight around. What we
:21:33. > :21:39.have now with Putin, the populism across parts of Europe and Donald
:21:40. > :21:44.Trump who thinks the EU will unravel is a shift to a radically different
:21:45. > :21:50.view of the world. Mrs May doesn't think any of that. She is not
:21:51. > :21:56.antenatal, not anti-EU, she says she wants the EU to succeed. She's not
:21:57. > :21:59.aggressive as far as I'm aware so I'm not sure why you would lump the
:22:00. > :22:06.British Prime Minister in with these other characters. Let me explain, by
:22:07. > :22:13.choosing this uncompromising approach to Brexit, clearly in doing
:22:14. > :22:17.so she, in my view, maybe not yours or others, is pursuing a self
:22:18. > :22:21.harming approach to the United Kingdom but also pulling up the
:22:22. > :22:26.threads that bind the rest of the European Union together, in so
:22:27. > :22:31.ostentatiously siding with Donald Trump, somehow declaring in my view
:22:32. > :22:40.speciously that we can make up with the trade we will lose, she's not
:22:41. > :22:44.challenging the shift to a more chauvinist approach to world affairs
:22:45. > :22:49.that is happening in many places. You are at your party's Spring
:22:50. > :22:54.conference, I think we can agree any Lib Dem come back will take a long
:22:55. > :22:59.time. Would Tory dominance be more effectively challenged by a
:23:00. > :23:04.realignment of the centre and the centre-left? Are you working towards
:23:05. > :23:11.that? I missed half the question but I think you are talking about a
:23:12. > :23:15.realignment. As a cook a way to get over Tory dominance, would you want
:23:16. > :23:20.that to happen? Are you working towards that? My view is the
:23:21. > :23:25.recovery of the Lib Dems will be quicker than you suggest. People
:23:26. > :23:29.often forget that even the low point of our fortunes in the last election
:23:30. > :23:33.we still got a million more votes than the SNP, it's only because we
:23:34. > :23:42.have got this crazy electoral system... But the SNP fight in
:23:43. > :23:48.Scotland, you fight in the whole country! But I'm saying the way
:23:49. > :23:57.seats are allocated overlooks the fact that 2.5 million still voted
:23:58. > :24:01.for us. But my own view is of course there are people feeling
:24:02. > :24:04.increasingly homeless in the liberal wing of the Conservative Party
:24:05. > :24:08.because they are now in a party which is in effect indistinguishable
:24:09. > :24:14.from Ukip on some of the biggest issues of the day, and homeless folk
:24:15. > :24:18.on the rational, reasonable wing of the Labour Party. I would invite
:24:19. > :24:23.them to join the Liberal Democrats and I would invite everyone across
:24:24. > :24:28.parties to talk about the idea is that bind us because the Westminster
:24:29. > :24:32.village can invest a lot of energy building new castles in the sky,
:24:33. > :24:35.inventing new names for parties when actually what you want is for people
:24:36. > :24:47.on the progressive centre ground of British politics to talk about the
:24:48. > :24:52.ideas that unite them, from the dilemmas of artificial intelligence
:24:53. > :24:56.to climate change. Do you think in your own view, can Brexit still be
:24:57. > :25:05.thwarted or is it now a matter of getting the best terms? I think we
:25:06. > :25:09.are in an interlude, almost a calm between two storms, the storm of the
:25:10. > :25:13.referendum itself and the collision between the Government's stated
:25:14. > :25:17.ambitions for Brexit and the reality of having to negotiate something
:25:18. > :25:22.unworkable with 27 other governments. The one thing I can
:25:23. > :25:33.guarantee you is that what the Government has promised to the
:25:34. > :25:38.British people cannot happen. Over a slower period of time we will work
:25:39. > :25:42.out our new relationship with the European Union. Theresa May said she
:25:43. > :25:48.will settle divorce arrangements, and pensions, so one, negotiate new
:25:49. > :25:53.trade agreements, new climate change policies and so on, and have all of
:25:54. > :25:57.that ratified within two years, that will not happen so I think there
:25:58. > :26:03.will be a lot of turbulence in the next couple of years. Will you use
:26:04. > :26:09.this turbulence to try to thwart Brexit, to find a way of rolling
:26:10. > :26:13.back the decision? It's not about repeating the debates of the past or
:26:14. > :26:19.thwarting the will of the people but it is comparing what people were
:26:20. > :26:25.promised from the ?350 million for the NHS every week through to this
:26:26. > :26:29.glittering array of new trade agreements we will sign across the
:26:30. > :26:33.world, with the reality that will transpire in the next couple of
:26:34. > :26:37.years and at that point, yes it is my belief people should be able to
:26:38. > :26:41.take a second look at if that is what they really want. A couple of
:26:42. > :26:49.quick questions, would you welcome an early general election? I always
:26:50. > :26:56.welcome them, we couldn't do worse than we did last time. That is
:26:57. > :26:58.certainly true. You have a column in the Evening Standard, have you
:26:59. > :27:05.spoken to the new editor about whether he will keep your column or
:27:06. > :27:12.spike it? No, I wait in nervous anticipation. Can you be a newspaper
:27:13. > :27:20.editor in the morning and an MP in the afternoon? Do I think that's
:27:21. > :27:25.feasible? Sorry, I missed a bit. There is no prohibition, no law
:27:26. > :27:30.against MPs being editors. They have been in the past and no doubt will
:27:31. > :27:37.again in the future. He is taking a lot on, he is an editor, also
:27:38. > :27:41.wanting to be an MP, a jetsetting academic in the States, working in
:27:42. > :27:46.the city, I suspect something will give. It seems to me even by his
:27:47. > :27:52.self-confidence standards in his own abilities I suspect he is taking on
:27:53. > :27:55.a little bit too much. Very diplomatic, Mr Clegg, I'm sure you
:27:56. > :28:00.will get to keep the column. Thanks for joining us.
:28:01. > :28:02.Now, for the last six months England's NHS bosses have been
:28:03. > :28:05.warning the health service needs more money to help it meet
:28:06. > :28:08.But in his first Budget, the Chancellor offered
:28:09. > :28:10.no immediate relief, and today the head of
:28:11. > :28:12.the organisation representing England's NHS trusts says hundreds
:28:13. > :28:15.of thousands of patients will have to wait longer for both emergency
:28:16. > :28:16.care and planned operations, unless the Government
:28:17. > :28:24.Warnings over funding are not exactly new.
:28:25. > :28:27.Back in 2014 the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens,
:28:28. > :28:31.published his plan for the future of the health service.
:28:32. > :28:34.In his five-year forward view, Stevens said the NHS in England
:28:35. > :28:37.would face a funding shortfall of up to ?30 billion by 2020.
:28:38. > :28:40.To bridge that gap he said the NHS would need more money
:28:41. > :28:44.from the Government, at least ?8 billion extra,
:28:45. > :28:47.and that the health service could account for the rest by making
:28:48. > :28:54.The Government says it's given the health service more than what it
:28:55. > :28:56.asked for, and that NHS in England will have received
:28:57. > :29:02.That number is disputed by NHS managers and the chair
:29:03. > :29:04.of Parliament's health committee, who say the figure is more
:29:05. > :29:07.like ?4.5 billion, while other parts of the health and social care budget
:29:08. > :29:13.have been cut, putting pressure on the front line.
:29:14. > :29:16.Last year, two thirds of NHS trusts in England finished
:29:17. > :29:19.the year in the red, and despite emergency bailouts
:29:20. > :29:21.from the Government, the NHS is likely to record
:29:22. > :29:26.Meanwhile national targets on waiting times for A
:29:27. > :29:28.departments, diagnostic tests, and operations are being
:29:29. > :29:36.This month's Budget provided ?2 billion for social care
:29:37. > :29:40.but there was no new cash for the NHS, leading trusts to warn
:29:41. > :29:43.that patient care is beginning to suffer, and what is being asked
:29:44. > :29:49.And I'm joined now by the Chief Executive of NHS
:29:50. > :29:54.Providers in England, Chris Hopson.
:29:55. > :30:01.Welcome to the programme. Morning, Andrew. I will come onto the extra
:30:02. > :30:06.money you need to do your job properly in a minute but first, part
:30:07. > :30:09.of the deal was you had to make 22 billion in efficiency savings, not a
:30:10. > :30:15.bank that money but spend it on patient care, the front line, and so
:30:16. > :30:17.on. How is that going? So, last parliament we realised around 18
:30:18. > :30:21.billion of productivity and efficiency savings, we are realising
:30:22. > :30:25.more this year so we are on course to realise 3 billion this year, that
:30:26. > :30:30.is a quarter of a billion more than last year but all of us in the NHS
:30:31. > :30:34.knew the 22 billion would be a very stretching target and we are
:30:35. > :30:41.somewhat inevitably falling short. So it is 22 billion by 2,020.
:30:42. > :30:49.Roughly. That was the time. We are now into 2017. So how much of the 22
:30:50. > :30:54.billion have you achieved? We realised around 3 billion last year
:30:55. > :31:00.and we will realise 3 billion this year, Court of billion more, 3.25
:31:01. > :31:04.billion this year, so we are on course for 18-19,000,000,000. By the
:31:05. > :31:08.2021 period? You are not that far away. The problem is the degree to
:31:09. > :31:13.which demand is going up. We have record demand over the winter period
:31:14. > :31:17.and that actually meant we have seen more people than we have ever seen
:31:18. > :31:23.before but performance is still under real pressure. Let me come
:31:24. > :31:27.onto that. When you agreed on the 22 billion efficiency savings plus some
:31:28. > :31:31.extra money from the government, I know there is a bit of an argument
:31:32. > :31:36.about how much that is actually worth, had you not factored in this
:31:37. > :31:40.extra demand that you saw coming over the next three or four years?
:31:41. > :31:45.Let's be very clear committee referred to Simon Stevens's forward
:31:46. > :31:49.view and we signed up to it but the 22 billion was a process run at the
:31:50. > :31:52.centre of government by the Department of Health with its arms
:31:53. > :31:56.length bodies, NHS England and others and is not something that was
:31:57. > :32:00.consulted on with the NHS. But you signed up to it. We always said that
:32:01. > :32:06.the day that that Spending Review was announced, the idea that the NHS
:32:07. > :32:09.where customer demand goes up something like four or 5% every
:32:10. > :32:13.year, the idea that in the middle years of Parliament we would be able
:32:14. > :32:19.to provide the same level of service when we were only getting funding
:32:20. > :32:23.increases of 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.7%, and I can show you the press release
:32:24. > :32:28.we issued, we always said there was going to be a gap and that we would
:32:29. > :32:35.not be able to deliver what was required. The full 22 billion in
:32:36. > :32:37.other words? What we said to Simon Stevens at the Public Accounts
:32:38. > :32:43.Committee a few months ago, the NHS didn't get what it was asked for.
:32:44. > :32:50.Today the NHS, cope with the resources it has according to you.
:32:51. > :32:52.How much more does it need? Are reported is about 2017-18 and we
:32:53. > :32:56.estimate that what we are being asked to do, and again, Andrew, you
:32:57. > :33:02.clearly set it out in the package, we are a long way off the four-hour
:33:03. > :33:06.A target and a long way off the 92%. The waiting times and
:33:07. > :33:11.operations. How much more do you need? And we are making up a ?900
:33:12. > :33:15.million deficit. If you take all of those into account we estimate you
:33:16. > :33:20.would need an extra ?3.5 billion next year in order to deliver all of
:33:21. > :33:23.those targets and eliminate the deficit. That would be 3.5 billion
:33:24. > :33:28.on top of what is already planned next year and that would be 3.5
:33:29. > :33:31.billion repeated in the years to come too? Yes, Andrew it is
:33:32. > :33:37.important we should make an important distinction about the NHS
:33:38. > :33:40.versus other public services. When the last government, the last Labour
:33:41. > :33:44.government put extra money into the NHS it clearly said that in return
:33:45. > :33:49.for that it would establish some standards in the NHS Constitution,
:33:50. > :33:53.the 95% A target we have talked about and the 92% elective surgery
:33:54. > :33:57.we have talked about. The trust we represent are very clear, they would
:33:58. > :34:01.want to realise those standards, but you can only do it if you pay for
:34:02. > :34:06.it. The problem is at the moment is we are in the longest and deepest
:34:07. > :34:09.financial squeeze in NHS history. As we have said, funding is only going
:34:10. > :34:15.up by 1% per year but every year just to stand still cost and demand
:34:16. > :34:20.go up by more than 4%. There is clearly a demand for more money. I
:34:21. > :34:23.think people watching this programme will think probably the NHS is going
:34:24. > :34:27.to have to get more money to meet the goals you have been given. I
:34:28. > :34:32.think they would also like to be sure that your Mac running the NHS
:34:33. > :34:36.as efficiently as it could be. We read this morning that trusts have
:34:37. > :34:41.got ?100 million of empty properties that cost 10 million to maintain, 36
:34:42. > :34:44.office blocks are not being used, you have surplus land equivalent to
:34:45. > :34:48.office blocks are not being used, 1800 football pitches. Yes, there
:34:49. > :34:53.are a number of things that we know in the NHS we need to do better but
:34:54. > :34:57.let me remind you, Andrew, in the last Parliament we realised ?18
:34:58. > :35:02.billion worth of cost improvement gains. We are going to realise
:35:03. > :35:08.another 3 billion this year, 0.25 billion more than last year so these
:35:09. > :35:11.things are being targeted. But having that surplus land, it is
:35:12. > :35:17.almost certainly in areas where there is a demand for housing.
:35:18. > :35:21.Absolutely. So why not release it for housing? You get the money, the
:35:22. > :35:24.people get their houses and its contribution and a signal that you
:35:25. > :35:29.are running NHS assets as efficiently as you can? Tell me if
:35:30. > :35:34.I'm going to too much detail for you. One of the reasons as to why
:35:35. > :35:37.our trusts are reluctant to realise those land sales is because there is
:35:38. > :35:42.an assumption that the money would go back to the Treasury and wouldn't
:35:43. > :35:45.benefit NHS trusts. You could make a deal, couldn't you? That's part of
:35:46. > :35:49.the conversation going on at the moment. The issue is that we would
:35:50. > :35:53.want to ensure that if we do release land, quite rightly the benefit,
:35:54. > :36:04.particularly in foundation trusts which are, as you will remember,
:36:05. > :36:07.deliberately autonomous organisations, that they should keep
:36:08. > :36:08.the benefit of those land sales. Have you raised that with the
:36:09. > :36:20.Yes we have. What did they say? They are in discussions of it. We heard
:36:21. > :36:22.somebody who moved from one job and then to another job and given a
:36:23. > :36:27.somebody who moved from one job and salary and then almost ?200,000 as a
:36:28. > :36:31.payoff. There is a national mood for the NHS to get more money. But
:36:32. > :36:34.before you give anybody any more money you want to be sure that the
:36:35. > :36:38.money you have got already is being properly spent, which for us, is the
:36:39. > :36:43.patient at the end of the day. And yet there seem to be these enormous
:36:44. > :36:50.salaries and payoffs. I've worked in a FTSE 100 on the board of Her
:36:51. > :36:52.Majesty's Revenue and Customs and I have worked in large organisations.
:36:53. > :36:56.I can look you completely straight in the eye and tell you that the
:36:57. > :36:59.jobs that our hospital, community, mental health and ambulance chief
:37:00. > :37:03.Executives do are amongst the most complicated leadership roles I have
:37:04. > :37:06.ever seen. It doesn't seem to me to be unreasonable that in order to get
:37:07. > :37:10.the right quality of people we should pay an appropriate salary.
:37:11. > :37:15.The reality is the salaries are paid are not excessive when talking about
:37:16. > :37:18.managing budgets of over ?1 billion a year and talking about managing
:37:19. > :37:26.tens of thousands of staff. There was a doctor working as a locum that
:37:27. > :37:30.earned an extra ?375,000. One of the problems in the NHS is a mismatch
:37:31. > :37:33.between the number of staff we need and the number of staff coming
:37:34. > :37:38.through the pipeline. What is having to happen is if you want to keep a
:37:39. > :37:41.service going you have to use Mackem and agency staff. Even at that cost?
:37:42. > :37:48.You would not want to pay those amounts. But you are. The chief
:37:49. > :37:51.Executives's choice in those areas is giving the service open or
:37:52. > :37:56.employing a locum. I'm sure you could find a locum prepared to work
:37:57. > :38:02.for less than that. What indication, what hopes do you have of getting
:38:03. > :38:07.the extra ?3 billion? The government has been very clear, for the moment
:38:08. > :38:12.it wants to stick to the existing funding settlement it has agreed. So
:38:13. > :38:16.there was nothing in the budget. Can I finish by making one important
:38:17. > :38:20.point. Please, finish. This is the first time the NHS has said before
:38:21. > :38:26.the year has even started that we can't deliver on those standards. We
:38:27. > :38:30.believe, as do most people who work in the NHS, that the NHS is on a
:38:31. > :38:34.gradual slow decline. This is a very important inflection point to Mark,
:38:35. > :38:37.this is the first time before the financial year starts that we say we
:38:38. > :38:42.cannot meet the targets we are being asked to deliver and are in the NHS
:38:43. > :38:43.Constitution. We have run out of time. Chris Hopson, thank you for
:38:44. > :38:44.being with me. It's just gone 11:35am,
:38:45. > :38:47.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:48. > :38:52.in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome
:38:53. > :38:54.to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme -
:38:55. > :38:58.the battle of the wills. Nicola Sturgeon insists
:38:59. > :39:01.there will be a second referendum but with Theresa May insisting
:39:02. > :39:15.there will not be one now - Our country stands at a crossroads,
:39:16. > :39:16.the future of the UK looks very different today than it did two
:39:17. > :39:20.years ago. And on Wednesday the Scottish
:39:21. > :39:22.Parliament votes on Indyref2 - I'll be speaking to the Tories
:39:23. > :39:25.who plan to vote no and the Greens, without whose support
:39:26. > :39:28.the Scottish Government cannot win. If you're watching this
:39:29. > :39:30.programme in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and feel
:39:31. > :39:33.a bit peeved with Brexit and rather fancy living
:39:34. > :39:35.in an independent Scotland - Because yesterday, at her
:39:36. > :39:37.party's spring conference, the First Minister invited
:39:38. > :39:39.all Britons to settle in the "progressive outward looking
:39:40. > :39:42.country" that the SNP believes The only fly in this utopian
:39:43. > :39:49.ointment is the need to win a referendum first -
:39:50. > :39:52.and in order to win a referendum, Shortly I'll be speaking
:39:53. > :39:56.to the Scottish Government's Cabinet Secretary for External Affairs -
:39:57. > :39:59.Fiona Hyslop. But first, Graham Stewart's been
:40:00. > :40:29.assessing the mood among delegates, These kind of referendums are once
:40:30. > :40:35.in a generation events. No means we stay in, we are members of the
:40:36. > :40:42.European Union. We can't keep spending money you haven't actually
:40:43. > :40:47.got. The dream shall never die. Ecclesial all added misty eyed,
:40:48. > :40:52.doesn't it? If only someone could help us relive that festival of
:40:53. > :40:54.democracy. I can confirm today that Nick Clegg I will seek the authority
:40:55. > :41:00.of the Scottish Parliament to agree with the UK Government the details
:41:01. > :41:02.of a Section 35 Order. The procedure that will enable the Scottish
:41:03. > :41:07.Parliament to legislate for an independence referendum. Nicola
:41:08. > :41:12.Sturgeon's announcement set Tomic the UK Government off-guard. While
:41:13. > :41:17.it took them a few days to formulate a response, when the answer came, it
:41:18. > :41:23.was repeated over and over again. Now is not the time. Now is not the
:41:24. > :41:30.time. Now is not the time. When is the right time? Now is not the time.
:41:31. > :41:34.Is not now, when? That's the question that has been exercising
:41:35. > :41:40.delegates at the SNP conference this weekend. But wondering which side
:41:41. > :41:43.benefits from I think it benefits the SNP and I think the SNP will
:41:44. > :41:49.have factored this in. They are willing to go all the way up to
:41:50. > :41:52.2020, 2021, which I think pre-Brexit was the original planning. They will
:41:53. > :41:56.have anticipated the Prime Minister in the UK Government saying not
:41:57. > :42:00.until after the exit. And they will be comfortable with something later
:42:01. > :42:09.on. Not, however, with anything after May 2021, which is where I
:42:10. > :42:12.think it becomes harder for the SNP. If Brexit is chaotic and nasty and
:42:13. > :42:16.extraordinarily exhausting, as we expected to be, because after all,
:42:17. > :42:20.every aspect of European law has to be unpicked may be integrated and
:42:21. > :42:25.then removed, if all of that begins to hit people the most incredible
:42:26. > :42:28.double they have ever experienced, then the longer it goes on, the
:42:29. > :42:39.better it works for Scottish independence. -- guddle. When I
:42:40. > :42:41.heard the announcement, I had shivers down my spine and went back
:42:42. > :42:46.home and trying to find my posters and badges and I just want to get
:42:47. > :42:52.going and change those people that said no before. The Scottish people
:42:53. > :42:54.have certainly demanded it, by returning 57 out of 59 MPs, I think
:42:55. > :42:59.that is another proof that the second referendum is required. I
:43:00. > :43:01.wasn't actively involved in persuading other people last time,
:43:02. > :43:10.other than through social media but I think I'm actually tread the
:43:11. > :43:15.boards and knock on doors. Having to persuade former Yes voters who had
:43:16. > :43:19.switched sides because of Europe gobsmacked I don't want Scotland to
:43:20. > :43:23.come out of one United Kingdom of 60 million and then go into another one
:43:24. > :43:26.of 400 million, where people have even less voice, so, no thank you.
:43:27. > :43:31.One third of SNP supporters basically think the same as me. What
:43:32. > :43:38.kind of reaction have you had since you announced publicly you were
:43:39. > :43:41.moving from yes to no? People Act as though I have betrayed the faith, I
:43:42. > :43:48.have been called a traitor, I've been told to get out, I have been
:43:49. > :43:55.told I am a liar, the ultimate insult is chilly unionist. Other
:43:56. > :43:58.voters are switched from no to yes because of the exit. My reasons are
:43:59. > :44:02.twofold, I believe there is an economic case for Scotland to remain
:44:03. > :44:07.in the single market, we cannot do that if we leave. The other is a
:44:08. > :44:12.moral case, I think that liberal democracy in Europe is under threat
:44:13. > :44:16.moral case, I think that liberal and to say no two that sort of
:44:17. > :44:20.thinking is important for Scotland. But for Nicola Sturgeon that is the
:44:21. > :44:22.small matter of agreeing a date first. If only it was as easy as
:44:23. > :44:34.days gone by... # Can it be that it
:44:35. > :44:53.was so simple then? Joining me now from Linlithgow
:44:54. > :45:13.is the Cabinet Secretary Fiona Hyslop, on the assumption that
:45:14. > :45:20.the Scottish Parliament votes for another referendum and Theresa May
:45:21. > :45:26.says she will not put a Section 35 Order before Parliament, what
:45:27. > :45:33.happens next? Well, welcome to Linlithgow, it is the case that we
:45:34. > :45:38.have to get through the process, we not calling for a referendum now. It
:45:39. > :45:42.will be an opportunity to learn more behind Brexit opportunity is going
:45:43. > :45:46.to be so this week is important because this is a vote for the
:45:47. > :45:51.Scottish Parliament, the elected Scottish Parliament, in terms of the
:45:52. > :45:58.process of securing the discussions around Section 30... Sure, but one
:45:59. > :46:01.the reason may refuses and says, I am not ruling out a referendum, wait
:46:02. > :46:05.until Brexit has taken effect and see what effect it has only Scottish
:46:06. > :46:09.economy, by all means come and see me and we will have a discussion,
:46:10. > :46:13.what do you say? Well, there are two sides to that. The first part of it
:46:14. > :46:23.is about Section 30 trans-Pennine the powers to have the timetable and
:46:24. > :46:25.DP legislation to have a referendum. But of course, Theresa May has not
:46:26. > :46:32.said they would not be a referendum at all. She thinks it should not
:46:33. > :46:35.happen now. We do not want now and what we wanted at the time when we
:46:36. > :46:39.have more information. So, that first part, that process to make
:46:40. > :46:44.sure powers transferred, Theresa May could agree to that as of now and
:46:45. > :46:48.the discussions about the timetable, and the First Minister has said she
:46:49. > :46:52.is willing to have discussions with Theresa May, those could take place.
:46:53. > :46:57.The second part is making sure we have information about what the deal
:46:58. > :47:03.might mean. One aspect of that is, can we have the referendum at a time
:47:04. > :47:06.when we know what the relationships might be with customs union, that is
:47:07. > :47:11.a huge economic consequence to Scotland, we don't even know within
:47:12. > :47:14.days of the Article 50 being triggered, or the customs union
:47:15. > :47:18.position might be for the UK Government. If we wait too long,
:47:19. > :47:22.that would see Scotland suffer and the idea of 5% of the GDP reduction
:47:23. > :47:26.for the Scottish economy because we're out of the single market would
:47:27. > :47:30.have consequences, so waiting too long may leave it too late for the
:47:31. > :47:41.Scottish economy and the Scottish people.
:47:42. > :47:45.Sorry, what is too long? If the British Government or indeed the
:47:46. > :47:47.Scottish Conservatives say, look, whatever the dealers, wait for a few
:47:48. > :47:49.years until we see evolving are consequences for Scotland you
:47:50. > :47:52.forecast actually happen. In terms of the substance of the issue,
:47:53. > :47:54.rather on the process, what is the argument against that? Even if you
:47:55. > :47:56.are correct, you have accepted that Scotland will have to reapply for
:47:57. > :48:02.membership of the EU anyway, so what is a matter whether it happens in
:48:03. > :48:07.2018, 2019, 2020, or 2023 for that matter? It doesn't really matter,
:48:08. > :48:13.does it? Well, we have a choice and we need clarity. We need to know
:48:14. > :48:17.what type of deal the UK wants. Remember Michel Barnier and David
:48:18. > :48:23.Davis this week echoing Act, determined that the deal would need
:48:24. > :48:26.to be known and the circumstances and arrangements by autumn 2018 to
:48:27. > :48:31.have application across Europe or the other countries. Wouldn't it be
:48:32. > :48:36.ironic if every other country across the EU could decide whether this was
:48:37. > :48:41.a good enough deal but the people of Scotland could not? Particularly
:48:42. > :48:44.when 62% had voted to remain. But you're talking about processes, I am
:48:45. > :48:47.talking about substance. The point I am making is that if it is accepted
:48:48. > :48:51.that Scotland will have to reapply to join the European Union, should
:48:52. > :49:00.that be your policy in a referendum campaign? What doesn't matter if it
:49:01. > :49:03.is 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, if you want to have another referendum, on
:49:04. > :49:11.the substance of the issue, it is that you want to join the EU, it
:49:12. > :49:14.doesn't have to be in 20182019. In terms of the substance, coming out
:49:15. > :49:20.of the single market will have huge economic consequences. We will know
:49:21. > :49:25.by automating, and if we do not know I would be very concerned about UK
:49:26. > :49:30.Government position, what the arrangements might be, we want to be
:49:31. > :49:33.part of the EU, that is our policy. The circumstances that we would find
:49:34. > :49:40.ourselves in at the point at which the UK leads, would be far far
:49:41. > :49:44.clearer in 18 months' time, when the deal is European Union. But you have
:49:45. > :49:48.not yet answered the point about substance. The Conservatives and the
:49:49. > :49:52.British Government will say that we do not believe the consequences of
:49:53. > :49:56.coming out of the EU will be as dire as your forecasting. By did we not
:49:57. > :49:59.wait and see what the consequences actually argument if you're correct,
:50:00. > :50:04.by all means have a referendum and you will probably win but at least
:50:05. > :50:12.give it a chance to see what happens. Is that not just common
:50:13. > :50:15.sense? Well, I think a wish and a pair, relying on a hard Tory
:50:16. > :50:21.right-wing Government, is not what we can accept. If they want to slash
:50:22. > :50:24.taxes, regulation and workers' rights, the disincentive to
:50:25. > :50:28.investment, there are discussions happening all over Europe about
:50:29. > :50:32.financial companies moving to Luxembourg or to Dublin. I think
:50:33. > :50:37.this is a very real issue. The substance cannot wait for years to
:50:38. > :50:42.find out if perhaps the UK Government will...
:50:43. > :50:51.It can wait for a couple of years can't it? Many members of the public
:50:52. > :50:55.will say, we don't know what this argument is about, let's wait and
:50:56. > :50:58.see what happens after Brexit and if you are right, we'll support you in
:50:59. > :51:02.another referendum but we don't want to have one that soon. You don't
:51:03. > :51:08.seem to have any arguments are doing that either. Only today, we've got
:51:09. > :51:14.some fantastic results for the growth of the exports of the
:51:15. > :51:21.Scottish sector. ?156 million increase in the food exports. 153 on
:51:22. > :51:25.food and drink to Europe. If we don't know what the standards of the
:51:26. > :51:31.exports of our food companies exporting into the EU are by the
:51:32. > :51:36.time we leave it in 2019, that puts our food exports at a disadvantage.
:51:37. > :51:39.There are jobs dependent on our food industry and a successful industry,
:51:40. > :51:41.we want that to continue, which is why we have to have the clarity
:51:42. > :51:45.we want that to continue, which is about whether the UK Government will
:51:46. > :51:48.still have any arrangement to allow access to the single market or
:51:49. > :51:54.preferably membership of the single market. We've set out compromise
:51:55. > :51:57.proposals and we are taking the substance of the Scottish economy
:51:58. > :51:58.very seriously which is why the timetable set out by the First
:51:59. > :52:07.Minister is very sensible. timetable set out by the First
:52:08. > :52:10.running out of time. Can we be clear, if you at some point have
:52:11. > :52:18.another referendum campaign, the SNP's policy will be for Scotland to
:52:19. > :52:26.rejoin the European Union as a full member? Yes, our policy is... And to
:52:27. > :52:30.rejoin the common fisheries policy? In terms of our negotiations, we
:52:31. > :52:33.want to be in the best possible position and that is why we need to
:52:34. > :52:37.have the referendum before the UK leaves. We have to leave it there.
:52:38. > :52:43.We will leave you to your loch, not With me now are the Scottish Deputy
:52:44. > :52:46.Leader of the party that's said No to another independence referendum
:52:47. > :52:49.now and the co-convenor of the party without whom the SNP will lose
:52:50. > :53:03.Tuesday's vote in Holyrood. What... Will you vote for another
:53:04. > :53:13.referendum? We decided as long ago as October to call for an order.
:53:14. > :53:22.What is your mandate? As a political party? Our mandate for policy comes
:53:23. > :53:25.from our members. You stood last year and in your manifesto, the
:53:26. > :53:28.entire basis for the SNP saying they have a mandate for another
:53:29. > :53:35.referendum, you said nothing about having another referendum. We didn't
:53:36. > :53:40.anticipate there would be... Like most people... Let me read it to
:53:41. > :53:42.you, you said if there is another referendum, it should come about by
:53:43. > :53:46.the will of the people and referendum, it should come about by
:53:47. > :53:50.driven by calculations of party political advantage. Where is the
:53:51. > :53:58.will of the people for another referendum? We suggested a citizens
:53:59. > :54:04.initiative. Where is it? It was intended to be a way in which we
:54:05. > :54:15.could judge the appetites... Can I answer the question. What we
:54:16. > :54:21.suggested was a way of... "It should come about by the will of the
:54:22. > :54:24.people." We never suggested the Scottish Parliament should be
:54:25. > :54:31.stripped of its ability to make a decision. One way of judging public
:54:32. > :54:38.appetite... The reality has changed. In June last year, the world changed
:54:39. > :54:42.around us. I know that, the entire basis of the SNP's case for another
:54:43. > :54:46.referendum is that they have what they call a cast iron mandate
:54:47. > :54:50.because of what they said in the manifesto they put to the people of
:54:51. > :54:54.Scotland only last year. Your manifesto doesn't give you any
:54:55. > :54:59.mandate to vote at the moment for another referendum. Arguably, if you
:55:00. > :55:04.vote, you are in breach of your manifesto. I do not think that.
:55:05. > :55:07.Where is the will of the people? We're not in breach of the
:55:08. > :55:14.possession our party members decided. You no mandate from the
:55:15. > :55:24.people who voted last year which is the reason you are in Parliament in
:55:25. > :55:28.the first place. This is not just about the Greens. The entire basis
:55:29. > :55:33.of the Scottish Government saying it has a mandate is because of the cast
:55:34. > :55:38.iron mandate it has, they can only win this vote this week with your
:55:39. > :55:41.support and you are arguably in breach of your manifesto and
:55:42. > :55:46.certainly, there is no mandate in your manifesto so from precisely the
:55:47. > :55:50.reasons the Scottish Government say this is legitimate, you are going to
:55:51. > :55:53.make it illegitimate. When you have an election, the winning party has a
:55:54. > :56:00.responsibility to implement its manifesto. A party in opposition
:56:01. > :56:04.needs to look at its policy and in June last year, the world changed
:56:05. > :56:09.around us and our party debated how to respond to that and our members
:56:10. > :56:18.voted in favour of a motion. You got the press release just like everyone
:56:19. > :56:24.else. You ought to either may be not to vote against it this week but the
:56:25. > :56:28.very least, you ought to abstain. Given the way the parliamentary
:56:29. > :56:33.arithmetic works, abstaining would be functionally equivalent, the SNP
:56:34. > :56:37.will gain a majority in the Scottish Parliament on any issue if anyone
:56:38. > :56:44.opposition party abstained so are abstaining basically says we are in
:56:45. > :56:48.favour of... Do you think... It's not just about the Greens, the
:56:49. > :56:51.entire argument of the SNP is that they have a cast iron mandate but
:56:52. > :56:55.entire argument of the SNP is that they don't. Not if they are relying
:56:56. > :57:00.on the support of a party which doesn't have any mandate. I think
:57:01. > :57:06.Patrick is dancing on the head of a pin. The referendum was eventually
:57:07. > :57:12.supported by 92% of the people and... To have a referendum. A super
:57:13. > :57:15.majority of every single MSP in the Parliament voting for it. That
:57:16. > :57:22.consent does not exist at this point. We are told this morning only
:57:23. > :57:28.32% support it. Do you think relying on the Greens affects its
:57:29. > :57:31.legitimacy? I do. In any event, I don't think the Scottish Government
:57:32. > :57:35.has ignored these resolutions of the Scottish Parliament over the last
:57:36. > :57:45.six weeks, health and education, the funding Council, the police. Nicola
:57:46. > :57:51.Sturgeon has three times ignored the Scottish Parliament. What exactly
:57:52. > :57:53.are the Conservatives saying? If you are saying, let's do the Brexit
:57:54. > :57:58.negotiations and see what happens and then have a referendum after
:57:59. > :58:02.that, I think some people will understand that. There seem to be
:58:03. > :58:06.some attempts by Conservatives like Ruth Davidson to say, we mean, they
:58:07. > :58:11.would have to be a period of several years until we see how Brexit runs
:58:12. > :58:16.out and that is not reasonable. The Prime Minister has said it is. We
:58:17. > :58:18.have to leave the European Union and we then have to see how Scotland are
:58:19. > :58:23.settling down in the new arrangement. They can then be a
:58:24. > :58:27.referendum at the point there is clear public support for one and
:58:28. > :58:32.that is the crucial point. There is none at the moment. Many people
:58:33. > :58:36.watching this will say, we can see the logic saying let's do the Brexit
:58:37. > :58:42.deal first but now they are changing the rules and saying there has to be
:58:43. > :58:46.a majority in the opinion polls and we have to have several years after
:58:47. > :58:50.Brexit. What you are doing is trying to put this off until the 2020
:58:51. > :58:57.Scottish election. I'm saying what Nicola Sturgeon said would that be
:58:58. > :59:01.it would be wrong to ask for the Scottish people to vote in another
:59:02. > :59:06.referendum until there is evidence they had changed their minds and
:59:07. > :59:10.that is in there. What do you think of that? This idea of putting it off
:59:11. > :59:16.until some years after Brexit has happened is essentially saying we
:59:17. > :59:22.will drag you off a cliff and let's wait and see what happens. The
:59:23. > :59:26.consequences of leaving the European Union are so profoundly damaging
:59:27. > :59:30.economically, politically, socially, environmentally, that this... I
:59:31. > :59:34.wanted to get you on the democracy of this because some people will
:59:35. > :59:39.say, it's reasonable to wait until after Brexit. But some people will
:59:40. > :59:43.say, if the Scottish Parliament is then denied after that for a period
:59:44. > :59:47.of years, this looks like the Conservatives are just manoeuvring
:59:48. > :59:51.so there will be another Scottish election, the SNP might lose the
:59:52. > :59:57.majority they have with you and they might lose that. So this is just
:59:58. > :00:00.party political manoeuvring. That manoeuvring is clearly part of their
:00:01. > :00:02.party political manoeuvring. That calculation. The Democratic argument
:00:03. > :00:06.is clear, what's going to happen for the next couple of years. This
:00:07. > :00:11.period of uncertainty is the result of the Brexit shambles going on. The
:00:12. > :00:15.first 18 months of it, we will see a government that we did not choose
:00:16. > :00:20.negotiating with EU institutions on which we will no longer be
:00:21. > :00:24.represented. For a Brexit path Scotland did not vote for. After
:00:25. > :00:29.that, six months in which every other EU member state gets a chance
:00:30. > :00:32.to ratify it. In this process, critically important to this
:00:33. > :00:35.country, Scottish voters are the only people in the whole of Europe
:00:36. > :00:41.who will not have a voice and that is unacceptable. Will you work for a
:00:42. > :00:47.better argument for your mandate between now and Wednesday, it will
:00:48. > :00:50.have to be more convincing? My party mix of policy democratically on the
:00:51. > :00:57.conference floor and our members vote for it. We took a motion and...
:00:58. > :01:03.On the contents of Brexit because Brexit changed the world. When this
:01:04. > :01:08.row develops, will you say, isn't it reasonable to say, from your point
:01:09. > :01:12.of view, not before Brexit, but after Brexit, yes, we recognise the
:01:13. > :01:18.Scottish Parliament has legitimacy? If the people of Scotland want
:01:19. > :01:22.another referendum... That's what the First Minister and others said,
:01:23. > :01:26.they had to be clear, public expression of support for another
:01:27. > :01:30.referendum and it's not there. Why does everyone else in Europe gets to
:01:31. > :01:33.choose the country's future except the people of Scotland? I know you
:01:34. > :01:37.want to carry on but we cannot. Sitting patiently in Edinburgh
:01:38. > :01:40.through the programme so far is constitutional expert
:01:41. > :01:51.Professor Michael Keating - Just on this question of the
:01:52. > :01:55.European Union, are we now accepting that Scotland will one way or
:01:56. > :02:01.another, as to says, leave the European Union or is they ate
:02:02. > :02:04.possibility if there was a referendum towards the end of the
:02:05. > :02:10.Brexit process, Scotland could somehow stay in? If there was a
:02:11. > :02:14.referendum before Brexit occurred, it would be possible to try to get a
:02:15. > :02:19.bridging arrangement and eventually get into the European Union. The
:02:20. > :02:23.danger of having a referendum after we've left, we will be out of the
:02:24. > :02:27.European Union, into whatever arrangement the UK negotiated and it
:02:28. > :02:32.would be difficult to pick. One halfway has suggested, is Scotland
:02:33. > :02:35.could become independent going into the European economic area, which
:02:36. > :02:42.would keep it in the single market, along with Norway, maybe it would
:02:43. > :02:47.then be able to go for EU membership that would take time. There is an
:02:48. > :02:50.argument from your point of view, if people are in favour of
:02:51. > :02:53.independence, there is an argument for having a referendum before the
:02:54. > :02:59.Brexit process is finished and then saying, let's have some transitional
:03:00. > :03:03.deal for Scotland? That would be possible, that is technically
:03:04. > :03:07.possible. Independence itself would be complicated and take some time.
:03:08. > :03:13.We will have the difficult negotiations anyway. This European
:03:14. > :03:19.economic area alternative is being talked about a lot more recently. As
:03:20. > :03:24.a transition thing, not as an alternative? Some people might see
:03:25. > :03:28.it as a permanent arrangement. The downside is that you have to accept
:03:29. > :03:32.all of the policies but you don't get any say. The advantages, we
:03:33. > :03:36.would keep the single market, we wouldn't be in the agricultural and
:03:37. > :03:45.fisheries policies and we could negotiate a free arrangement with
:03:46. > :03:52.the United Kingdom. I'm interested in your take on this week's
:03:53. > :03:58.stand-off. One assumes Theresa May, I may be wrong, but for the sake of
:03:59. > :04:02.the argument, that she won't have a section 30 odd and if in a few
:04:03. > :04:08.years' time, we want another referendum after Brexit, let's talk
:04:09. > :04:13.about it. What happens, anything the Scottish Government can do? They
:04:14. > :04:18.could try to stage a unilateral referendum, try to find a form of
:04:19. > :04:23.words that would get around the courts. There was a few years ago
:04:24. > :04:26.talk about a question of whether the Scottish Government should seek new
:04:27. > :04:29.powers to negotiate Scottish independence. If that got through,
:04:30. > :04:33.the problem would be political because they referendum is only
:04:34. > :04:37.convincing if both sides participate. This has been the case
:04:38. > :04:43.in Quebec in the past, the federal government did not recognise the
:04:44. > :04:50.referendum but never the less, they participated.
:04:51. > :04:56.Just to clarify the law, the power to hold a referendum or not is
:04:57. > :04:59.reserved to Westminster? That's quite clear, the Scottish Government
:05:00. > :05:04.has agreed that in its consultation paper on the referendum. Whether
:05:05. > :05:07.some other form of words could be found to make it legal, I do not
:05:08. > :05:09.know. It has been tried in Catalonia a couple of years ago and didn't
:05:10. > :05:14.really get anywhere. The question a couple of years ago and didn't
:05:15. > :05:21.was so unclear legal position was unclear and the did not turn out and
:05:22. > :05:23.did not really resolve anything. I Act on that cheerful note of
:05:24. > :05:25.positivity, Michael Keating, we will have to leave it there.
:05:26. > :05:28.Now it's time to take a look back and at events coming
:05:29. > :05:33.Joining me this week are the Sunday times Scotland columnist
:05:34. > :05:36.and the SNP's former head of communications -
:05:37. > :05:37.Kevin Pringle and Herald columnist and former advisor
:05:38. > :05:45.to Alistair Darling - Catherine MacLeod.
:05:46. > :05:56.The obvious first question is, are you going to get involved in another
:05:57. > :05:59.campaign if one happens? I think what will happen. I think people
:06:00. > :06:03.across Scotland would love to be involved in such a campaign on both
:06:04. > :06:07.sides. It is a question of when, rather than if. That seems clear,
:06:08. > :06:12.even from what Theresa May said last week. The difficulty she got into
:06:13. > :06:18.was that it looks very much like blocking the referendum, in terms of
:06:19. > :06:24.blocking... Your carefully avoiding my question. Do you want to get
:06:25. > :06:27.involved? Of course. But we are in the very early stages and we are in
:06:28. > :06:34.a battle of hearts and minds over who will win the banner for
:06:35. > :06:40.reasonableness. Which side sounds more reasonable? It looks
:06:41. > :06:46.unreasonable, I think, in terms of the timescale the First Minister set
:06:47. > :06:52.out, to knock back the request. It was accepted last year by
:06:53. > :06:58.conservatives in Scotland that it would be wrong for the UK Government
:06:59. > :07:01.to block a referendum. She's not here to defend herself but with
:07:02. > :07:04.Davidson would say I am not standing against a referendum but I do not
:07:05. > :07:10.agree that there should be one in the near future. I think that the
:07:11. > :07:13.campaign is for who can win the contest for reasonableness. That is
:07:14. > :07:17.what we'll see when you next few days and weeks. I was a very
:07:18. > :07:22.convoluted answer to the question, are you going to get back involved?
:07:23. > :07:26.Do you have a shorter answer? Well, if there is a campaign, and I am not
:07:27. > :07:31.convinced there will be, but I would get involved. I am surprised that
:07:32. > :07:38.Kevin said that as an appetite for another campaign. He mixes in
:07:39. > :07:45.different circles from me. He said it was a battle for hearts and
:07:46. > :07:49.minds. He said there were a lot of people on both sides looking forward
:07:50. > :08:01.to the campaign. But that is not in my experience. A lot of people feel
:08:02. > :08:08.referendumed out. They would be dismayed at the prospect of another
:08:09. > :08:10.referendum campaign. If you want to hear what Alistair Darling thinks,
:08:11. > :08:21.you would have to ask him. But what I do think is that there are dozens
:08:22. > :08:27.of meetings going on in London between officials in Scotland and
:08:28. > :08:32.officials in the UK Government and I think the less that we do to
:08:33. > :08:37.undermine the UK's position in the negotiations with Brussels, the
:08:38. > :08:41.better. Everybody, both sides of the border, want to have a tether free
:08:42. > :08:48.trade agreement, to protect workers' rights, to look after EU citizens
:08:49. > :08:52.and British citizens abroad. We should focus on that, not on whether
:08:53. > :08:56.or not we want to break up the UK. Playing the politics of this will be
:08:57. > :08:59.interesting, Kevin. There is this odd thing is that where everyone
:09:00. > :09:04.knows about the SNP will say our timetable is reasonable, actually
:09:05. > :09:09.they will look for any excuse for a referendum. And everyone knows that
:09:10. > :09:12.everyone who is against the referendum would like to never have
:09:13. > :09:18.a referendum again. It will be politically how you cut through
:09:19. > :09:22.that. Yes, I think opinion is quite balanced on this question. Even
:09:23. > :09:26.looking at the Sunday Times poll, the idea of having a referendum by
:09:27. > :09:29.the time of the Brexit negotiations being over, which is actually
:09:30. > :09:34.October, 2018, according to the European Commissioner's chief
:09:35. > :09:36.negotiator, Michel Barnier, that actually reflect the First
:09:37. > :09:45.Minister's timetable for a referendum. It is quite balanced.
:09:46. > :09:55.Probably about 50-50. 52% was suggested by one hole. What about
:09:56. > :10:00.the idea from Jackson Carlaw that the Conservatives are raising, that
:10:01. > :10:05.there should be a bedding in period, it is not just about voting to leave
:10:06. > :10:08.and that is it. Let's wait and see if the dire things the Nicola
:10:09. > :10:13.Sturgeon says would arise from that actually do arise or not. Because
:10:14. > :10:17.they can't point the way the economy has performed since friends and say,
:10:18. > :10:23.look, all these forecasts of gloom and doom turned out to be wrong so
:10:24. > :10:28.far, maybe they will happen, but let's wait to see. But I don't think
:10:29. > :10:35.it can be open-ended. There was a famous anecdote where someone was
:10:36. > :10:40.asked about the impact of something in the 1970s and he said it was too
:10:41. > :10:42.early to tell. I think the point of judgment surely would be around
:10:43. > :10:48.about the autumn of 2018, when we know that parameters and detail of
:10:49. > :10:53.Brexit negotiations. And also, as a matter of democracy, given a mandate
:10:54. > :10:56.that was secured in the election last year obviously applies to its
:10:57. > :11:03.Holyrood parliament, I think is a matter of democracy, the question
:11:04. > :11:08.needs to be passed before the end of this Parliament... The Greens
:11:09. > :11:13.arguably do not have a mandate. As Patrick said, even if the Greens
:11:14. > :11:16.abstained, the SNP majority carries anyway. There will be a Scottish
:11:17. > :11:22.Parliament vote on Wednesday and will formally call for a referendum
:11:23. > :11:25.within the timescale of autumn 2018, Spring 2019 but I detected from the
:11:26. > :11:33.First Minister's Speech yesterday that she is prepared to negotiate
:11:34. > :11:36.about that. What do you make of this, Catherine? I think Nicola's
:11:37. > :11:41.position is understandable, she can enter politics to the UK and that is
:11:42. > :11:48.what she wants do. What Patrick was saying, I do not understand at all.
:11:49. > :11:49.Here is a party, a Green Party, who, the environment should be their
:11:50. > :11:54.raison d' tre for being in politics, raison d'etre for being in politics,
:11:55. > :11:57.they have got a position, Scotland has a position, the UK has a
:11:58. > :12:00.position to negotiate the best for the environment in Scotland and yet
:12:01. > :12:03.they seem to be undermining and ready to undermine the negotiations
:12:04. > :12:09.that are going on at the moment. The timescale? I don't know. I think
:12:10. > :12:21.2018 will be too early because people in Scotland will be being
:12:22. > :12:26.asked to vote for a pig in a poke... Will you be better to leave it for a
:12:27. > :12:30.few years after that? None of us know what we're voting for. People
:12:31. > :12:37.talk about hard Brexit, soft Brexit, these are meaningless. Theresa May,
:12:38. > :12:41.I am not here to defend her, but she will be wanting the best Brexit
:12:42. > :12:49.outcome for the UK. What people mean by hard or soft, I have no idea. In
:12:50. > :12:53.2018, if that is when they think we should ask, what will be the promise
:12:54. > :12:56.to the Scottish people and when the team? Before anybody has any more
:12:57. > :13:00.votes, I think that is what was wrong with the original... What
:13:01. > :13:06.about this conservative ideology of a few years to see if it actually
:13:07. > :13:09.works? I can see sense in that. It is better to know what people are
:13:10. > :13:12.voting for to give people a chance to have a sensible vote on their
:13:13. > :13:24.future rather than putting your finger in the wind. There will be
:13:25. > :13:31.another Scottish election in 2021, so the mandate runs out, so they
:13:32. > :13:34.would before then? Yes. The mandate was achieved for this Parliament and
:13:35. > :13:38.that is when it needs to happen. Thank you for joining us. I have a
:13:39. > :13:41.feeling this debate may continue. That's all for this week,
:13:42. > :13:45.I'm back at the same time next week.