:00:38. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:44.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:45. > :00:48.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:49. > :00:54.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:55. > :00:57.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:58. > :01:03.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:04. > :01:05.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:06. > :01:09.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:10. > :01:11.And on Sunday Politics Scotland - What a week!
:01:12. > :01:17.and Spain's Foreign Minister says they wouldn't block
:01:18. > :01:18.an Independent Scotland's entry to the EU.
:01:19. > :01:30.Join me, and Holyrood's Brexit Minister, at 11.45.
:01:31. > :01:32.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:33. > :01:35.panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:36. > :01:40.and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:41. > :01:43.For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating
:01:44. > :01:45.guidelines came as something of a shock.
:01:46. > :01:51.The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be
:01:52. > :01:53.given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to
:01:54. > :01:59.The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar
:02:00. > :02:01.will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.
:02:02. > :02:07.Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking
:02:08. > :02:13.We are going to look after Gibraltar.
:02:14. > :02:18.Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,
:02:19. > :02:20.because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without
:02:21. > :02:23.the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it
:02:24. > :02:25.very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule
:02:26. > :02:28.and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU
:02:29. > :02:31.that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject
:02:32. > :02:43.Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much
:02:44. > :02:46.ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this
:02:47. > :02:51.negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different
:02:52. > :02:58.points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They
:02:59. > :03:03.will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is
:03:04. > :03:10.doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early
:03:11. > :03:17.example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the
:03:18. > :03:23.dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At
:03:24. > :03:27.certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power
:03:28. > :03:31.than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European
:03:32. > :03:36.Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by
:03:37. > :03:42.laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the
:03:43. > :03:48.EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?
:03:49. > :03:56.Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I
:03:57. > :04:00.mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By
:04:01. > :04:04.excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an
:04:05. > :04:11.opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is
:04:12. > :04:14.important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite
:04:15. > :04:20.well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,
:04:21. > :04:25.and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.
:04:26. > :04:29.For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment
:04:30. > :04:34.or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic
:04:35. > :04:38.illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,
:04:39. > :04:44.it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.
:04:45. > :04:49.They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you
:04:50. > :04:53.think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do
:04:54. > :04:58.not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have
:04:59. > :05:01.an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the
:05:02. > :05:08.EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of
:05:09. > :05:13.symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.
:05:14. > :05:18.You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have
:05:19. > :05:21.your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they
:05:22. > :05:30.went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!
:05:31. > :05:34.Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.
:05:35. > :05:39.Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will
:05:40. > :05:46.be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many
:05:47. > :05:51.other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.
:05:52. > :05:56.Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their
:05:57. > :06:00.interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate
:06:01. > :06:05.accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50
:06:06. > :06:10.letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of
:06:11. > :06:15.balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness
:06:16. > :06:24.and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a
:06:25. > :06:29.real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are
:06:30. > :06:37.going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.
:06:38. > :06:45.It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.
:06:46. > :06:48.So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much
:06:49. > :06:52.But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?
:06:53. > :06:54.Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?
:06:55. > :06:56.Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?
:06:57. > :06:58.Big days in politics usually involve people shouting
:06:59. > :07:00.and the Prime Minister getting in a car.
:07:01. > :07:03.It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.
:07:04. > :07:06.But the short journey is the start of a much longer one
:07:07. > :07:11.and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.
:07:12. > :07:13.This is a historic moment from which there can
:07:14. > :07:22.Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,
:07:23. > :07:25.was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU
:07:26. > :07:28.He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.
:07:29. > :07:33.Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world
:07:34. > :07:36.were trying to work out what it all meant for the
:07:37. > :07:43.So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter
:07:44. > :07:50.The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit
:07:51. > :07:52.deal and a future trade deal at the same time.
:07:53. > :07:54.It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated
:07:55. > :07:57.a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation
:07:58. > :08:00.in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.
:08:01. > :08:04.Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen
:08:05. > :08:10.if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.
:08:11. > :08:14.We would not be able to access information in the same way
:08:15. > :08:17.as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,
:08:18. > :08:19.we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that
:08:20. > :08:21.enables us to work together in the way that we have.
:08:22. > :08:23.That night, the Brexiteers were happy.
:08:24. > :08:30.We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.
:08:31. > :08:33.Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,
:08:34. > :08:42.I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.
:08:43. > :08:57.The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use
:08:58. > :08:57.security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's
:08:58. > :08:58.cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.
:08:59. > :08:58.Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.
:08:59. > :09:01.We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.
:09:02. > :09:04.That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,
:09:05. > :09:07.David Davis had other business that morning,
:09:08. > :09:10.introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer
:09:11. > :09:12.all EU law into British law to change later,
:09:13. > :09:17.It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,
:09:18. > :09:19.among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier
:09:20. > :09:26.As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership
:09:27. > :09:28.with the European Union, we are doing so from a position
:09:29. > :09:30.where we have the same standards and rules.
:09:31. > :09:36.It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy
:09:37. > :09:39.of European Union law in the UK as we exit.
:09:40. > :09:46.There was, though, a small issue with the name.
:09:47. > :09:49.The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.
:09:50. > :09:51.Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed
:09:52. > :09:59.Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.
:10:00. > :10:02.So far, it had been a tale of two cities.
:10:03. > :10:05.By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders
:10:06. > :10:08.were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,
:10:09. > :10:14.set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.
:10:15. > :10:17.Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress
:10:18. > :10:20.on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our
:10:21. > :10:23.Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,
:10:24. > :10:32.as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.
:10:33. > :10:37.The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.
:10:38. > :10:43.Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.
:10:44. > :10:46.The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now
:10:47. > :10:49.gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown
:10:50. > :10:59.But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen
:11:00. > :11:05.Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.
:11:06. > :11:07.We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative
:11:08. > :11:15.The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK
:11:16. > :11:18.until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce
:11:19. > :11:27.bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you
:11:28. > :11:33.can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I
:11:34. > :11:38.assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything
:11:39. > :11:41.is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked
:11:42. > :11:47.about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make
:11:48. > :11:52.a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it
:11:53. > :11:56.really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this
:11:57. > :12:00.country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound
:12:01. > :12:07.divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of
:12:08. > :12:11.this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of
:12:12. > :12:16.Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for
:12:17. > :12:24.any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think
:12:25. > :12:27.some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly
:12:28. > :12:32.unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As
:12:33. > :12:37.one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to
:12:38. > :12:42.pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited
:12:43. > :12:47.about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be
:12:48. > :12:51.anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion
:12:52. > :13:00.euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get
:13:01. > :13:06.everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access
:13:07. > :13:11.for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be
:13:12. > :13:20.prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we
:13:21. > :13:23.get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are
:13:24. > :13:27.right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that
:13:28. > :13:33.would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a
:13:34. > :13:37.transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is
:13:38. > :13:43.more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement
:13:44. > :13:48.of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would
:13:49. > :13:51.that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the
:13:52. > :13:57.transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves
:13:58. > :14:01.here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should
:14:02. > :14:05.be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If
:14:06. > :14:10.there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take
:14:11. > :14:17.to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really
:14:18. > :14:21.rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,
:14:22. > :14:25.depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk
:14:26. > :14:30.about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.
:14:31. > :14:36.Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is
:14:37. > :14:41.reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It
:14:42. > :14:45.is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in
:14:46. > :14:50.their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of
:14:51. > :14:53.them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do
:14:54. > :14:57.agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we
:14:58. > :15:02.would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and
:15:03. > :15:10.corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite
:15:11. > :15:15.what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when
:15:16. > :15:22.we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not
:15:23. > :15:28.according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,
:15:29. > :15:32.they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does
:15:33. > :15:37.not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can
:15:38. > :15:41.discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free
:15:42. > :15:45.trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for
:15:46. > :15:52.us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.
:15:53. > :16:01.Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of
:16:02. > :16:05.migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all
:16:06. > :16:11.three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high
:16:12. > :16:18.would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry
:16:19. > :16:21.you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the
:16:22. > :16:26.chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of
:16:27. > :16:33.both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we
:16:34. > :16:37.do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World
:16:38. > :16:42.Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with
:16:43. > :16:46.the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade
:16:47. > :16:51.Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will
:16:52. > :16:55.get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you
:16:56. > :16:59.about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty
:17:00. > :17:06.issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain
:17:07. > :17:10.should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the
:17:11. > :17:14.Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it
:17:15. > :17:21.has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand
:17:22. > :17:25.by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime
:17:26. > :17:30.Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect
:17:31. > :17:34.another small group of British people against another
:17:35. > :17:38.Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current
:17:39. > :17:50.woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to
:17:51. > :17:52.Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading
:17:53. > :17:55.Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain
:17:56. > :17:57.having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes
:17:58. > :18:04.with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should
:18:05. > :18:08.the British government respond? The British government should show
:18:09. > :18:12.resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with
:18:13. > :18:17.free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working
:18:18. > :18:22.Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very
:18:23. > :18:28.confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the
:18:29. > :18:31.interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank
:18:32. > :18:34.you for joining us from Kent this morning.
:18:35. > :18:35.Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,
:18:36. > :18:37.there are things happening other than Brexit.
:18:38. > :18:40.In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important
:18:41. > :18:43.domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.
:18:44. > :18:46.Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,
:18:47. > :18:51.In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370
:18:52. > :18:58.The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength
:18:59. > :19:04.Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not
:19:05. > :19:08.Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created
:19:09. > :19:11.combined authority mayors, and there will be contests
:19:12. > :19:18.for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,
:19:19. > :19:20.Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.
:19:21. > :19:23.In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,
:19:24. > :19:25.many of them affected by boundary changes.
:19:26. > :19:28.Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one
:19:29. > :19:33.Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils
:19:34. > :19:40.All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very
:19:41. > :19:41.strong year for Labour, though independent
:19:42. > :19:44.candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.
:19:45. > :19:46.According to the latest calculations by Plymouth
:19:47. > :19:51.University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted
:19:52. > :19:54.to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,
:19:55. > :20:00.But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,
:20:01. > :20:03.with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip
:20:04. > :20:08.could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.
:20:09. > :20:10.Though the proportional system usually makes big changes
:20:11. > :20:13.less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase
:20:14. > :20:15.both the number of seats they hold, and the number
:20:16. > :20:24.In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.
:20:25. > :20:27.Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,
:20:28. > :20:29.with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.
:20:30. > :20:32.Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,
:20:33. > :20:35.Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.
:20:36. > :20:42.Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the
:20:43. > :20:47.selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal
:20:48. > :20:50.because this is for the most part rural England. The only control
:20:51. > :20:55.three of the council they are defending and they are only
:20:56. > :20:59.defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.
:21:00. > :21:02.Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12
:21:03. > :21:15.months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now
:21:16. > :21:18.with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England
:21:19. > :21:21.were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour
:21:22. > :21:23.to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic
:21:24. > :21:27.for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,
:21:28. > :21:31.Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with
:21:32. > :21:35.virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these
:21:36. > :21:39.elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat
:21:40. > :21:44.reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this
:21:45. > :21:48.picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing
:21:49. > :21:55.extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that
:21:56. > :21:58.they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than
:21:59. > :22:00.treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the
:22:01. > :22:04.lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition
:22:05. > :22:08.with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may
:22:09. > :22:12.well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain
:22:13. > :22:15.seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste
:22:16. > :22:20.votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if
:22:21. > :22:23.the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for
:22:24. > :22:56.mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty
:22:57. > :22:58.consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,
:22:59. > :23:01.Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very
:23:02. > :23:03.closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you
:23:04. > :23:06.look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine
:23:07. > :23:08.points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at
:23:09. > :23:11.the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to
:23:12. > :23:14.where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.
:23:15. > :23:16.Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West
:23:17. > :23:18.Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that
:23:19. > :23:22.would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince
:23:23. > :23:27.people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in
:23:28. > :23:30.truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has
:23:31. > :23:36.Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.
:23:37. > :23:40.It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal
:23:41. > :23:48.seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting
:23:49. > :23:53.Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it
:23:54. > :23:58.take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is
:23:59. > :24:03.uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government
:24:04. > :24:07.by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats
:24:08. > :24:11.were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage
:24:12. > :24:15.point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result
:24:16. > :24:24.compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --
:24:25. > :24:27.this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the
:24:28. > :24:30.SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to
:24:31. > :24:33.lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will
:24:34. > :24:38.become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In
:24:39. > :24:42.Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives
:24:43. > :24:46.did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour
:24:47. > :24:49.are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,
:24:50. > :24:55.are expected to come third north of repeating the third they suffered in
:24:56. > :24:58.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:59. > :25:04.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:05. > :25:08.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:09. > :25:13.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:14. > :25:18.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:19. > :25:24.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:25. > :25:26.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:27. > :25:42.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:43. > :25:44.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:45. > :25:47.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:48. > :25:49.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:50. > :25:52.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:53. > :25:59.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:26:00. > :26:02.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:03. > :26:07.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:08. > :26:13.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:14. > :26:18.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:19. > :26:22.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:23. > :26:29.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:30. > :26:36.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:37. > :26:40.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:41. > :26:46.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:47. > :26:52.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:53. > :26:57.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:58. > :27:02.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:03. > :27:06.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:07. > :27:09.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:10. > :27:14.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:15. > :27:17.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:18. > :27:21.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:22. > :27:26.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:27. > :27:30.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:31. > :27:34.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:35. > :27:41.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:42. > :27:46.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:47. > :27:52.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:53. > :28:12.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:13. > :28:15.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:16. > :28:18.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:19. > :28:20.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:21. > :28:22.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:23. > :28:24.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:25. > :28:27.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:28. > :28:29.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:30. > :28:34.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:35. > :28:40.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:41. > :28:45.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:46. > :28:49.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:50. > :28:51.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:52. > :28:54.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:55. > :28:57.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:58. > :28:59.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:29:00. > :29:04.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:05. > :29:06.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:07. > :29:10.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:11. > :29:12.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:13. > :29:15.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:16. > :29:17.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:18. > :29:21.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:22. > :29:27.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:28. > :29:29.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:30. > :29:35.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:36. > :29:37.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:38. > :29:42.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:43. > :29:47.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:48. > :29:52.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:53. > :29:57.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:58. > :30:03.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:04. > :30:08.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:09. > :30:12.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:13. > :30:16.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:17. > :30:21.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:22. > :30:26.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:27. > :30:34.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:35. > :30:42.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:43. > :30:48.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:49. > :30:57.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:58. > :31:01.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:02. > :31:06.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:07. > :31:10.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:11. > :31:18.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:19. > :31:25.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:26. > :31:28.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:29. > :31:32.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:33. > :31:38.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:39. > :31:45.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:46. > :31:49.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:50. > :31:52.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:53. > :32:00.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:01. > :32:06.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:07. > :32:11.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:12. > :32:18.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:19. > :32:23.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:24. > :32:30.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:31. > :32:34.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:35. > :32:38.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:39. > :32:43.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:44. > :32:48.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:49. > :32:53.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:54. > :32:57.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:58. > :33:03.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:04. > :33:08.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:09. > :33:16.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:17. > :33:20.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:21. > :33:27.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:28. > :33:36.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:37. > :33:41.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:42. > :33:45.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:46. > :33:52.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:53. > :33:58.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:59. > :34:05.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:06. > :34:13.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:14. > :34:17.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:18. > :34:27.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:28. > :34:32.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:33. > :34:38.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:39. > :34:42.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:43. > :34:49.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:50. > :34:54.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:55. > :35:00.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:01. > :35:05.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:06. > :35:09.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:10. > :35:14.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:15. > :35:18.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:19. > :35:23.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:24. > :35:29.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:30. > :35:32.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:33. > :35:37.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:38. > :35:41.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:42. > :35:46.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:47. > :35:49.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:50. > :35:55.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:56. > :36:01.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:02. > :36:05.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:06. > :36:09.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:10. > :36:17.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:18. > :36:24.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:25. > :36:29.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:30. > :36:32.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:33. > :36:36.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:37. > :36:42.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:43. > :36:46.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:47. > :36:51.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:52. > :36:56.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:57. > :36:59.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:37:00. > :37:02.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:03. > :37:06.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:07. > :37:09.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:10. > :37:12.people and if we do not do that, if letting people down. Is Labour
:37:13. > :37:20.preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the
:37:21. > :37:25.press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election
:37:26. > :37:28.coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became
:37:29. > :37:30.coordinator called for a general Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:31. > :37:36.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:37. > :37:41.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:42. > :37:44.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:45. > :37:56.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:57. > :37:58.Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.
:37:59. > :38:04.It seems emails are just sooo 2016, as this week a retro blast
:38:05. > :38:07.from the past sees our leaders looking for pen friends.
:38:08. > :38:10.Theresa May's letter got a swift response.
:38:11. > :38:12.So far, though, it seems Nicola Sturgeon is still
:38:13. > :38:17.I'll be asking her Minister for Brexit what happens
:38:18. > :38:23.Also - as the Great Repeal Bill is launched to repatriate
:38:24. > :38:26.powers from Brussels, a constitutional expert tells this
:38:27. > :38:30.programme the Scotland Act will need to be redrawn if the UK is to have
:38:31. > :38:36.any powers over issues like farming and fishing.
:38:37. > :38:38.And, Council Elections are looming, but this time round will
:38:39. > :38:40.constitutional matters trump local issues for voters.
:38:41. > :38:46.We've been to Glasgow's Govanhill to try and find out.
:38:47. > :38:49.Now, apart from the row over whether there should be another
:38:50. > :38:51.independence referendum, another row is brewing over
:38:52. > :38:53.which powers should be devolved and which should be reserved
:38:54. > :38:57.to the UK Government when Britain leaves the European Union.
:38:58. > :39:01.The presumption of the Scotland Act is that powers in areas like farming
:39:02. > :39:04.and fishing will be fully devolved, but some are arguing it would be
:39:05. > :39:09.A little earlier I spoke to the constitutional expert
:39:10. > :39:23.When powers are devolved back from Brussels to either London or
:39:24. > :39:29.Edinburgh, there seems to be some question about whether the Scotland
:39:30. > :39:32.act would have to be amended if for example some powers on agriculture
:39:33. > :39:40.where to rest with Westminster. What is your take on that? It would have
:39:41. > :39:45.two be because one, the provision of Scottish legislation has to conform
:39:46. > :39:50.with European legislation has been taken away these powers come back to
:39:51. > :39:53.Holyrood not reserved to Westminster so either the Scotland act would
:39:54. > :39:57.have to be changed or some other legislation would have to be put in
:39:58. > :40:04.formal writing, in the Scotland act. With that apply... There are certain
:40:05. > :40:07.things that would be an argument are quite reasonable to reserve for
:40:08. > :40:13.devolving to Scotland and the Palmer devolving to Scotland and the Palmer
:40:14. > :40:18.-- power of subsidies to farmers, or common standards across the UK for
:40:19. > :40:22.farms perhaps so that people can sell agricultural produce throughout
:40:23. > :40:27.the UK, there is a UK single market. For things like that would still had
:40:28. > :40:32.to be an amendment? There would have to be some kind of framework. It is
:40:33. > :40:38.also to do with subsidies as well, you would have to have a common
:40:39. > :40:41.ground across the UK otherwise there would be unfair competition and if
:40:42. > :40:48.the UK signs the free trade agreement with the EU or anyone
:40:49. > :40:51.else, that covers agricultural subsidies. Those frameworks could be
:40:52. > :40:56.delivered in two ways. Either the UK could lay down the law from above or
:40:57. > :41:01.you could do what the worst government has suggested dues have a
:41:02. > :41:06.four nation partnership and negotiation about what those common
:41:07. > :41:09.standards might be. When it comes to subsidies there is an an argument I
:41:10. > :41:17.suppose that the last thing Scotland should want is full devolution
:41:18. > :41:19.because we get a disproportionate share of Cameron agricultural policy
:41:20. > :41:25.funds and if that were just repatriated and then an advised,
:41:26. > :41:30.presumably Scotland could lose out, by hundreds of millions. Let's get
:41:31. > :41:36.that straight. The formula says we get what we already get and then
:41:37. > :41:40.every year thereafter any increase or change in English expenditure is
:41:41. > :41:44.it tribute it according to population so we get our percent of
:41:45. > :41:49.the common agricultural policy subsidies at the moment and under
:41:50. > :41:54.the next appraisal is we still get that present. If it was a per capita
:41:55. > :41:59.allocation then that would be different but so far the UK
:42:00. > :42:03.Government says it doesn't know how it will distribute those monies and
:42:04. > :42:05.in Scotland there is complete freedom in determining how that
:42:06. > :42:10.money is spent, as it would under the Barnett formula, then support
:42:11. > :42:13.for farmers would compete with support for the NHS, education,
:42:14. > :42:18.social services and all the other support for the NHS, education,
:42:19. > :42:20.problems, and that would be a difficult decision to make for the
:42:21. > :42:25.Scottish Government. Why do you say that there would have to be a UK
:42:26. > :42:30.wide regime for subsidies? Surely he could determine subsidies for home
:42:31. > :42:34.farmers in Scotland independent of the UK? It might lead to imbalances
:42:35. > :42:38.farmers in Scotland independent of in terms of condition but these
:42:39. > :42:39.wouldn't be major, would they? They could be if we wanted to subsidise
:42:40. > :42:46.our lamb, say, and sell it in the UK could be if we wanted to subsidise
:42:47. > :42:51.market, Welsh lamb farmers would be unhappy, saying that was unfair
:42:52. > :42:56.competition. European Union deals with this with the competition
:42:57. > :42:59.policy and we don't have European competition policy, so they would
:43:00. > :43:03.have to be some kind of competition policy in the UK, not just for
:43:04. > :43:12.agriculture but also regional development. Of all sorts. We have
:43:13. > :43:13.to have a UK internal market, if losing the European one. Thank you
:43:14. > :43:14.very much rejoining us. Well, the Scottish Government's
:43:15. > :43:34.Brexit minister Mike Russell joins That's a beautiful where you are.
:43:35. > :43:38.Let me just get your reaction to a piece of neither is coming this
:43:39. > :43:43.morning was up and not sure if you are aware of it but the Spanish
:43:44. > :43:48.Foreign Minister has said this morning that Spain would not block
:43:49. > :43:54.an independent Scotland becoming a member of the European union. He
:43:55. > :43:57.said that we don't want that Scottish independence to happen but
:43:58. > :44:03.if it happens legally and constitutionally are they would not
:44:04. > :44:06.block it. Your reaction? That has been the position of the Spanish
:44:07. > :44:09.government for some considerable time. Although speculation about
:44:10. > :44:13.what the Spanish government would or would not do as being wrong, that
:44:14. > :44:16.has been the position of the Spanish government, it is helpful to have it
:44:17. > :44:22.restated but that is not actually news. Presumably you welcome it
:44:23. > :44:27.nonetheless? I very much welcome it because it equates with reality. He
:44:28. > :44:30.has gone on to talk about the method of accession and that isn't quite as
:44:31. > :44:35.accurate. This week we heard John Kirby man he wrote Article 50, the
:44:36. > :44:38.former British representative talking about the ease of entry into
:44:39. > :44:44.Europe where we to be outside. So there has been a lot of positive to
:44:45. > :44:47.take, and what this does it de-escalates the situation,
:44:48. > :44:50.producing some reality in the situation so then we can have an
:44:51. > :44:55.argument about the merits of the case, not misinformation from range
:44:56. > :44:58.argument about the merits of the of sources. Now, Michael Keating
:44:59. > :45:03.from because additional expert, he told us their comments not sure if
:45:04. > :45:10.you could hear him, his point was the Scotland act is going to have to
:45:11. > :45:15.be revisited and changed, what is your view on that? I think he is
:45:16. > :45:18.right, we have said this some considerable time. The way that
:45:19. > :45:23.devolution has been established essentially everything is devolved
:45:24. > :45:26.except items which are reserved to Westminster. If Western wants to
:45:27. > :45:30.reserve new items or parts of things devolved them that will require them
:45:31. > :45:35.to reopen the Scotland act. We recognise that there has to be
:45:36. > :45:41.constructive, detailed negotiation about proposals in the great reform
:45:42. > :45:48.Bill. What there -- it should be about how we manage to work together
:45:49. > :45:52.in order to install a new regime. That is separate from the issue of a
:45:53. > :45:56.referendum. There is work to be done because nobody wants to get to the
:45:57. > :46:00.end of two years and discovered that there is a complete hiatus so we
:46:01. > :46:03.need those negotiations and the problem we have seen with the Great
:46:04. > :46:08.Repeal Bill White Paper this week is that it is not detailed enough and
:46:09. > :46:11.the DJ does have is not helpful, like the repatriation of powers
:46:12. > :46:16.section, so I have urged David Davis to say to sit down, talk a great
:46:17. > :46:18.deal about this comment officials working on it so we get it right but
:46:19. > :46:23.Westminster should have known for a long time. They wanted to be
:46:24. > :46:27.reserved powers they would have to go back to the original legislation.
:46:28. > :46:30.In principle you would not be against ending the Scotland Bill
:46:31. > :46:36.should those discussions take place and have some successful conclusion?
:46:37. > :46:42.In principle I would be very much against them, that would weaken
:46:43. > :46:46.devolution and as has been set for some time that is probably the Tory
:46:47. > :46:50.agenda. We need a decent discussion of how the Great Repeal Bill can
:46:51. > :46:55.work so Scotland and Wales get back all the powers pertaining to
:46:56. > :46:58.devolved areas which is important. Michael Keating mention the Welsh
:46:59. > :47:03.government and we want to go along with them. Assist take the case of
:47:04. > :47:07.agriculture. There is an argument isn't that on things like farming
:47:08. > :47:11.standards we need a UK framework so that there is a UK single market so
:47:12. > :47:17.that Scottish farmers can freely sell into it. That would have to be
:47:18. > :47:20.run from the UK, and the UK level and I can't quite see why you would
:47:21. > :47:25.be against that? But that itself might be an amendment to the
:47:26. > :47:29.Scotland act. Not necessarily do not necessarily. Two things. The first,
:47:30. > :47:34.there is a valid will continue if the Great Repeal Bill as it operates
:47:35. > :47:42.is in as intended to, that will continue, standards will be the same
:47:43. > :47:46.so no urgent changes are needed. How do we negotiate a common framework
:47:47. > :47:49.we agree strongly with the Welsh and elements of Northern Ireland so you
:47:50. > :47:52.repatriate those powers and all sit around together and say how can we
:47:53. > :47:57.make these work together? That replicates what happens in Europe
:47:58. > :48:00.because it is co-decision-making in Europe, you have the Council of
:48:01. > :48:04.ministers, decisions are made jointly, and what the UK Government
:48:05. > :48:10.seems to be talking about is their making the decision and that would
:48:11. > :48:14.not bring back the powers. What also happens in Europe is once you have
:48:15. > :48:18.this co-determination there is a single market framework laid down
:48:19. > :48:23.and everyone in Europe has to play by the rules. The argument is and
:48:24. > :48:27.you had Michael Keating saying that for farming for example there needs
:48:28. > :48:33.to be a UK framework which everyone agrees on but obviously that would
:48:34. > :48:37.have to be managed at a UK level. It would have to be managed by the four
:48:38. > :48:42.nations of the UK working together. It should not be imposed by the UK
:48:43. > :48:48.Government and everybody just does as they are told because there are
:48:49. > :48:52.huge variations. What they would have to be a single framework. The
:48:53. > :49:00.framework would have to be negotiated. Every person farming the
:49:01. > :49:03.hills behind me get a different payment from England for example.
:49:04. > :49:06.There are different payments required for different products and
:49:07. > :49:09.farming types. That is a local decision but that can be come
:49:10. > :49:14.together and agree framework but if they are imposed they will not get
:49:15. > :49:17.the type of frameworks that we need here and awe in Wales. Local
:49:18. > :49:23.decision making and working together. What the UK Government is
:49:24. > :49:28.looking at eyes in position and that is unacceptable. They haven't made
:49:29. > :49:34.that clear to you, have they? They haven't said that to you. If you
:49:35. > :49:40.read section four four of the Great Repeal Bill Curry you will see the
:49:41. > :49:44.intention Bill towards common UK framework. We need to discover how
:49:45. > :49:51.those work. If we are talking about repatriating work... The working the
:49:52. > :49:56.areas we are talking about, makes sense, doesn't it estimate you have
:49:57. > :50:00.accepted that. At think it is rather important that the decision making
:50:01. > :50:04.process is the right one, to make things happen here. We have been
:50:05. > :50:07.talking about this for months as have the Welsh, and the worst First
:50:08. > :50:10.Minister indicated today that they have been getting nowhere because
:50:11. > :50:16.the UK Government has been issuing a version will what is happening now
:50:17. > :50:21.with Gibraltar, and others, the Prime Minister is not listening and
:50:22. > :50:24.that is not acceptable. Apart in the Scotland act possible amendments the
:50:25. > :50:30.other issue coming up this week is whether at various stages similar
:50:31. > :50:33.motions, legislative consent motions might have to be passed by the
:50:34. > :50:37.Scottish Government, parliament, rather come in order for Brexit to
:50:38. > :50:48.go ahead. Have you looked at that and what is your view? The Secretary
:50:49. > :50:53.of State for Scotland said and David Davies said he did not know. When we
:50:54. > :50:58.seek the bill, we only have a white Paper now, it will require consent.
:50:59. > :51:02.Legislative consent is about altering the competencies of the
:51:03. > :51:05.Parliament or the Government. There is no doubt that is what these do.
:51:06. > :51:11.That is a discussion we need to have. There will then be a great
:51:12. > :51:14.deal of secondary legislation. They are talking about thousands of
:51:15. > :51:18.pieces of legislation. How we get those through and how we deal with
:51:19. > :51:23.those in the time frame we have is also a big area for discussion. What
:51:24. > :51:28.we now need is discussion with the UK Government, sitting down with us
:51:29. > :51:32.and saying, this is our options, this is how we intend to do things.
:51:33. > :51:41.Until we have that, we cannot make much progress. If you were to block
:51:42. > :51:46.any of those legislative consent motions, is that something you would
:51:47. > :51:50.consider doing if you do not get your permission for a referendum?
:51:51. > :51:55.What the occasions of that? What we are talking about here is trying to
:51:56. > :51:59.take and enormously complex body of legislation and change at all within
:52:00. > :52:04.a two-year period. It is in the body's interest to get that wrong.
:52:05. > :52:08.It has to be got right. We need a type of working relationship that
:52:09. > :52:14.will get that right. We do not see much sign of it now. The last six
:52:15. > :52:19.months, we have not had it. The referendum is another issue, which
:52:20. > :52:25.we also need cooperation. Just briefly, when I interviewed you the
:52:26. > :52:30.other day, I thought that you ruled out any referendum to be held
:52:31. > :52:35.outside of section 30 order. But five minutes after you said it,
:52:36. > :52:39.Willie Rennie, you need of the Liberal Democrats, said he had not
:52:40. > :52:44.ruled it out. Had you ruled it out or not? If we keep going back to
:52:45. > :52:48.what really Rennie says we will not make much sense. It is clear we are
:52:49. > :52:53.going to do this legally and buy the book. I rule out any other way of
:52:54. > :52:56.doing it. That is clear, I think. Until it is challenged by someone.
:52:57. > :52:58.Thank you very much indeed for joining me.
:52:59. > :53:01.Now, there are accusations that the Great Repeal Bill
:53:02. > :53:03.is nothing more than a Westminster power grab.
:53:04. > :53:05.With me now from Liverpool is Patrick Harvie who is very
:53:06. > :53:07.much of that persuasion and here in the studio
:53:08. > :53:17.Patrick Harvey, you have heard the discussion. There is a sensible
:53:18. > :53:24.argument, isn't there, that the areas of farming, you do want a UK
:53:25. > :53:27.single market. Some powers, maybe not powers, but you have to have a
:53:28. > :53:34.UK single market framework and the bodies that would police that would
:53:35. > :53:39.have to be UK bodies. There is a question there about where you want
:53:40. > :53:43.to get to, how much cooperation you want between Scotland, the rest of
:53:44. > :53:46.the UK and what is currently the European single market. That is a
:53:47. > :53:50.great deal of trade that is important to farmers and all parts
:53:51. > :53:55.of Europe. That requires common standards. It is not just where do
:53:56. > :54:00.we want to get in terms of having that free flow of trade, it is also
:54:01. > :54:06.how do we get there. What the UK Government is a process of why
:54:07. > :54:10.passing parliamentary scrutiny. You are saying that and Mike Russell
:54:11. > :54:13.said that but you have no evidence for that. The British Government
:54:14. > :54:19.have not said how the intent go about doing this at all. It is
:54:20. > :54:21.unclear. We have certainly gave a lack of detail in their repeal Bill.
:54:22. > :54:26.unclear. We have certainly gave a They have made it clear that they
:54:27. > :54:30.want to give these ancient powers to ministers to be right laws without
:54:31. > :54:34.proper parliamentary scrutiny. I think it is important that we hold
:54:35. > :54:37.ministers to account in both parliaments. If ministers and both
:54:38. > :54:42.governments are going to be given these powers, real parliamentary
:54:43. > :54:46.scrutiny is necessary. We know that many of the Tories are already
:54:47. > :54:51.pushing for a bonfire of the regulations and even citing what
:54:52. > :54:54.Donald Trump is doing, ripping up the regulations and environmental
:54:55. > :54:58.protections. They want that on social standards, the working
:54:59. > :55:02.director, renewable energy directive. Is single market is not
:55:03. > :55:07.just about trade, it is also about the common standards that protect us
:55:08. > :55:12.all and they want to use the cover of the Henry VIII powers to rip up
:55:13. > :55:17.these regulations. We need to stand against that effort. Somebody can
:55:18. > :55:20.tell me in my ear, I am wondering how long can get into this programme
:55:21. > :55:27.without someone mentioning Henry VIII. We are there. Jackson Carlaw,
:55:28. > :55:32.as there is the intention of the British Government as far as you
:55:33. > :55:35.know? Patrick sprays his grievances around and paragraphs, not
:55:36. > :55:41.sentences. They are layered thick. It is clear from the article 15
:55:42. > :55:45.letter that the Prime Minister has tabled, she expects the devolved
:55:46. > :55:48.ministrations to end up with more responsibility. What she has not
:55:49. > :55:53.done is make clear the sort of things that might Russell wants to
:55:54. > :55:56.be made clear. Before he layered on grievance, he was taking quite a
:55:57. > :56:03.constructive tone. This just has to be a discussion between the
:56:04. > :56:07.different administrations about what is pragmatic and sensible. Would you
:56:08. > :56:13.accept the Scotland Act would have to be amended? I would accept it as
:56:14. > :56:18.possible. There will need to be basic frameworks and we do not want
:56:19. > :56:22.to end up with frameworks that then end up as an obstacle to internal
:56:23. > :56:26.trade within the United Kingdom, particularly in agriculture. So much
:56:27. > :56:30.of our export is actually down to England. We do not want different
:56:31. > :56:34.regimes that make that difficult. There is to be a pragmatic approach
:56:35. > :56:39.to this. We do not know to be looking to see devious Unionist
:56:40. > :56:43.under the bed, who have a different agenda. We want what is best and
:56:44. > :56:48.what is best for Scotland outside the European Union and is part of
:56:49. > :56:53.the United Kingdom. Patrick Harvey, many people who bought Green will be
:56:54. > :56:57.watching this and think why is he banging his Scottish nationalist
:56:58. > :57:01.drum about who does what. Why is he not saying this is a fantastic
:57:02. > :57:05.chance for Britain to get rid of the ludicrous common agricultural policy
:57:06. > :57:11.and completely redesign a system of subsidies to farmers and on
:57:12. > :57:16.environmental grounds? Garden, you know as well as anybody this is not
:57:17. > :57:20.a contest between one kind of nationalism and another. I am
:57:21. > :57:25.neither a nationalist of any kind. I do not accuse other people on the
:57:26. > :57:30.other side of being nationalists. This is about the European Union has
:57:31. > :57:35.been where we have derived and agreed a huge raft of our social and
:57:36. > :57:39.environmental protections. The legislation that looks after our
:57:40. > :57:43.quality of life, health, the quality of our water, huge amount of
:57:44. > :57:46.environmental regulation comes from Europe and is under direct threat
:57:47. > :57:53.from the UK Government, including its backbenchers and cheerleaders in
:57:54. > :58:02.the white right wing press. -- right wing press. You want to rip it up?
:58:03. > :58:06.Of course there is reform. If we end up outside of Europe, we will
:58:07. > :58:11.continue to argue for the state of agricultural and industry. Why was
:58:12. > :58:16.the first thing you said today not, we do not want... We want powers for
:58:17. > :58:23.Holyrood. Why was it not this ludicrous system that you rip runs
:58:24. > :58:28.of paying farmers subsidies just for having farms has got to go and be
:58:29. > :58:32.replaced on subsidies on how people take place of the environment? There
:58:33. > :58:37.has been improvement but there is more improvement we can have if we
:58:38. > :58:40.are in it. We will continue to argue for a more sustainable system and
:58:41. > :58:47.food system as well. Consumers going into the shops and buying food in
:58:48. > :58:51.the future, under the UK Government isolationist Brexit conditions, will
:58:52. > :58:55.not know what the standards are of the food that has been produced,
:58:56. > :59:01.whether it has been produced in Europe, the UK or other countries.
:59:02. > :59:07.Producers may have to apply high standards to come into Europe.
:59:08. > :59:13.Jackson Carlaw, you have handled this very... Your Government has
:59:14. > :59:18.handled this very badly. You could have done much more to make clear to
:59:19. > :59:22.people like Mike Russell, you could be in meetings with him now
:59:23. > :59:26.discussing the kind of things he is being stonewalled on. I think the
:59:27. > :59:30.first and most important process we have to go through is seeking to
:59:31. > :59:35.discuss with London and the other devolved administrations what the
:59:36. > :59:40.terms of our exit strategy will be. We have now done that and achieved
:59:41. > :59:45.some agreement. There are areas where there are division. Both the
:59:46. > :59:50.Welsh and Scottish Government say they have be ten years on respecting
:59:51. > :59:55.the devolved parliaments of these countries in the process so far.
:59:56. > :00:00.Would you like to call on the British Government to change that
:00:01. > :00:02.attitude and be more sensitive? I would not accept that
:00:03. > :00:06.characterisation of the depths of the discussions that have taken
:00:07. > :00:10.place. I would suggest you may be helping your party and the British
:00:11. > :00:19.Government more if you did go and suggest to them they were not so ten
:00:20. > :00:22.years as they were. I sit on the European committee in the Scottish
:00:23. > :00:27.parliament. We have published a report where we have said it would
:00:28. > :00:31.be useful for the quality of dialogue to improve. We accept that
:00:32. > :00:35.it can get quite heated. I do not accept that we do not have a
:00:36. > :00:41.practical idea of how we now proceed. As you have your green tie
:00:42. > :00:47.on to try and upstage Patrick Harvey,... I heard him saying it has
:00:48. > :00:51.been something we have all been blessed to be part of. I do not
:00:52. > :00:54.think that has been the view of anybody in this country. You were on
:00:55. > :00:56.a different channel if you heard of that. We have to leave it there.
:00:57. > :00:58.Thank you very much indeed. Given all this talk of Brexit
:00:59. > :01:00.and possible independence referendums, you'd be forgiven
:01:01. > :01:02.for overlooking the fact there are local council elections
:01:03. > :01:05.taking place in a just few weeks. The parties will always tell
:01:06. > :01:07.you they're fighting And while that may be true,
:01:08. > :01:11.with the seismic political events taking place at a national
:01:12. > :01:13.and international level right now, Graham Stewart's been
:01:14. > :01:16.looking at the battle for Glasgow City Council,
:01:17. > :01:18.and whether the independence debate might have a bearing
:01:19. > :01:34.on who takes control. First, they were toppled at
:01:35. > :01:41.Holyrood. Never again will we see the Labour Party assumed that it has
:01:42. > :01:46.a divine right to rule Scotland. Then the SNP wiped them out at
:01:47. > :01:51.Westminster. And in a couple of weeks' time, they could lose control
:01:52. > :01:57.of Glasgow City Council. Named after one of Labour's most celebrated
:01:58. > :01:58.post-war ministers, the former regional council headquarters once
:01:59. > :02:03.post-war ministers, the former stood as an emblem of Libra's grip
:02:04. > :02:10.over the city of Glasgow. But the party now finds its support is
:02:11. > :02:14.crumbling. -- Labour's grip. Over the last couple of years, given the
:02:15. > :02:19.state of the opinion polls, it is very difficult to see how the Labour
:02:20. > :02:21.Party is going to retain control of Glasgow or north Lanarkshire,
:02:22. > :02:27.Westonbirt injure and everything else that they are trying to hang
:02:28. > :02:32.onto. -- West Dunbartonshire. And the SNP do well enough to get
:02:33. > :02:37.overall control? That may or may not elude them. One former Labour leader
:02:38. > :02:41.of Glasgow City Council says his party's problems were self
:02:42. > :02:45.inflicted. Many of our reporters were left confused and then angry
:02:46. > :02:53.after the independence referendum. The sort Labour teaming up with the
:02:54. > :02:57.Tories. -- they sought. The icing on the cake when Alistair Darling got a
:02:58. > :03:03.standing or region at the Conservative Party conference
:03:04. > :03:08.drawled, on the back of the division of referendum, when Labour found
:03:09. > :03:13.themselves at odds with most of the voters in Glasgow, it drove them to
:03:14. > :03:16.the SNP. Have the events of 2014 now determined how people are likely to
:03:17. > :03:25.vote in all elections, including cancel 1's? In Govanhill, the heart
:03:26. > :03:28.of the first-Minister's Holyrood constituency, poverty and neglect
:03:29. > :03:34.have taken their toll. Labour here is keen to contrast its focus on
:03:35. > :03:37.local issues with what it says is the SNP's obsession with
:03:38. > :03:44.independence. Despite the millions pounds of cuts, Glasgow City Council
:03:45. > :03:47.has still delivered for constituents. 60 million has been
:03:48. > :03:54.cut from the Government budget, which it has impacted in our
:03:55. > :03:56.constituents. They are not interested in another referendum.
:03:57. > :04:05.Challenging Labour is one of the first-Minister long time AIDS.
:04:06. > :04:10.Independence is not mentioned once in her literature. -- horror aid.
:04:11. > :04:14.People are interested in local issues. People are interested in who
:04:15. > :04:19.is going to run the council. There have been a lot of elections, to a
:04:20. > :04:23.certain extent, people may have a little bit of the election fatigue.
:04:24. > :04:29.I think people are very interested in local issues in Glasgow. A recent
:04:30. > :04:34.boost in support could see the Scottish Greens play a pivotal role
:04:35. > :04:38.in some councils. They say they are managing to keep people engaged with
:04:39. > :04:43.local issues. The last couple of weeks, people have brought up the
:04:44. > :04:48.independence referendum but it has not been a huge issue on the
:04:49. > :04:53.doorstep. All of our material is very focused on local issues. The
:04:54. > :04:57.Green Party will back a yes vote in the next referendum but there is a
:04:58. > :05:01.lot more that can be done at the local Government level that we are
:05:02. > :05:06.focused on right now and we need to push for. The constitutional divide
:05:07. > :05:11.continues to dominate discourse. Local candidates might be shy of
:05:12. > :05:23.mentioning independence, can the constitution be separated from local
:05:24. > :05:26.politics? In Govanhill, people are looking for hope and even greater
:05:27. > :05:29.space. Many people see independence as the means to that end. Labour has
:05:30. > :05:31.been squeezed out because it is no longer seen as the party that speaks
:05:32. > :05:34.for Scotland. When you are seen as the party that speaks for Scotland,
:05:35. > :05:38.in Govanhill or Glasgow, you are the party that speaks for social change.
:05:39. > :05:42.There is another Scotland that takes a very different view. I have to
:05:43. > :05:47.tell people that the SNP is not Scotland. In next month 's local
:05:48. > :05:54.elections are split along constitutional lines, the Tories can
:05:55. > :05:59.benefit. They lost almost in particular we have seen an increase
:06:00. > :06:03.in support, so conservatives must fancy their chances and just thought
:06:04. > :06:06.of making gains but overtaking Labour. They may not be running very
:06:07. > :06:13.much in Scotland, perhaps they might harm onto south Ayrshire for example
:06:14. > :06:16.but they could certainly end up with a much stronger position in Scottish
:06:17. > :06:22.local government than they have enjoyed for a long time. We asked to
:06:23. > :06:26.speak to the Conservative Dem cabinets in Glasgow but they were
:06:27. > :06:27.unavailable. Ten candidates are standing in this ward and voting
:06:28. > :06:29.takes place on the 4th of May. Now it's time to look back
:06:30. > :06:32.at events and what's coming With me this week are
:06:33. > :06:40.the Press Association's political editor Katrine Bussey
:06:41. > :06:42.and the Sunday Herald's investigations editor
:06:43. > :06:55.Paul Hutcheon. Katrine Bussey, first of all, the
:06:56. > :07:01.independence referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has written a letter. What
:07:02. > :07:04.happens next is to mark the next thing is Theresa May replies and we
:07:05. > :07:08.know what that is what going to be. I'm not going to have a section 30
:07:09. > :07:13.on this, if you still feel strongly about this will have a chat. Nicola
:07:14. > :07:19.Sturgeon has options but they are all difficult options at this stage.
:07:20. > :07:23.His areas like do the SNP resigned in the government and try and force
:07:24. > :07:31.another election or do they look at if they can force and legislative
:07:32. > :07:34.consent motion for the Great Repeal Bill and see that as a way of
:07:35. > :07:40.frustrating Brexit. There are options for the First Minister that
:07:41. > :07:46.this stage none of them are easy. Options do you think they have,
:07:47. > :07:49.Paul? Two years of sound and dreary and constitutional process is the
:07:50. > :07:57.only option they have. As Katrina said I think forcing an election is
:07:58. > :08:01.just not a runner. They could... The other day I interviewed Michael
:08:02. > :08:05.Russell he said I'm not going to tell you. We've got great ideas that
:08:06. > :08:08.I won't tell you them on television. You'd started to look interested
:08:09. > :08:12.when I mentioned the idea of a legal challenge. That could be
:08:13. > :08:16.something... You can legally challenge anything, I guess. Going
:08:17. > :08:21.down the parliamentary routes to thwart and subvert the great repeal
:08:22. > :08:30.act, the Great Repeal Bill I just think that... From their prison is
:08:31. > :08:34.if you take an area like agriculture it is not obvious that it falls into
:08:35. > :08:40.any simple Holyrood versus Westminster scenario. Even Michael
:08:41. > :08:43.Russell was saying he needs something to be sorted out that the
:08:44. > :08:51.UK level and he wants to be involved in talks doing that. It is uncharted
:08:52. > :08:58.territory. The Tories have got an idea -- tin ear for Scotland. I
:08:59. > :09:01.think that's true. They are so overwhelmed by the Brecht process,
:09:02. > :09:06.they are flailing and struggling to get a grip on one side of that in
:09:07. > :09:10.Scotland. We don't have to deal with this, we're short of staff, and
:09:11. > :09:15.short of people who truly understand what's going on up here. A tin ear?
:09:16. > :09:22.Do you think so? I'm not sure about a tin ear, but the Great Repeal Bill
:09:23. > :09:27.will be a phenomenal amount of work. 12,000 pieces of legislation being
:09:28. > :09:30.converted into UK legislation potentially. Casually into Scottish
:09:31. > :09:32.legislation and when using the amount of pressure that is going to
:09:33. > :09:37.put on Whitehall machinery perhaps it is no wonder that they say now is
:09:38. > :09:44.not the time for a referendum. A lot of it is a European word processor,
:09:45. > :09:50.replacing British Government with you. Or rather the other way round.
:09:51. > :09:57.It might be cut and paste but how do you cut and paste Scotland into
:09:58. > :10:00.there? If you like constitutional process, you will enjoy the next few
:10:01. > :10:05.there? If you like constitutional years. We have a mark one now which
:10:06. > :10:10.is over the independence referendum but there is going to be another one
:10:11. > :10:13.which is what powers come to Scotland. Initially in the Brexit
:10:14. > :10:16.campaign last year there was an assumption made that anything that
:10:17. > :10:22.wasn't reserved with automatically just go back to Scotland and that
:10:23. > :10:26.seems to have been shifted from that start and end the Tories, they now
:10:27. > :10:30.tour for the need for mature conversations and the idea of UK
:10:31. > :10:36.wide frameworks on fishing and accurate search so yes there are
:10:37. > :10:38.discussions to be had there. The Spanish saying that Scotland could
:10:39. > :10:43.join the EU if it becomes independent. Mike Russell might have
:10:44. > :10:47.known that nobody else seems to. I don't seem to remember them saying
:10:48. > :10:54.that so publicly or forthrightly in the run-up to the 2014 votes. I'm
:10:55. > :11:00.surprised Mike Russell is downplaying this because in the 2014
:11:01. > :11:04.referendum, there was a good argument to cast doubt on
:11:05. > :11:07.independent Scotland's ability to join the EU, suggesting that Madrid
:11:08. > :11:11.would veto that. It seems like the argument there is dead in the water.
:11:12. > :11:18.It seems like Spain would not veto a independent Scotland. I just wonder
:11:19. > :11:23.if the Spanish government is feeling under pressure to look reasonable.
:11:24. > :11:29.We have Gibraltar and now this. It seems like Spain is trying to poke
:11:30. > :11:31.the UK in both eyes and it seems to be working. If there is a secular
:11:32. > :11:40.and referendum there will be different arguments than the first
:11:41. > :11:44.one. One of the big issues in Glasgow seems to be that while
:11:45. > :11:51.Labour will lose Glasgow the SNP might not win it. I think that is
:11:52. > :11:54.interesting, that we saw last year in the Holyrood elections these
:11:55. > :11:58.conservatives do well in Glasgow and whether that could play again? I
:11:59. > :12:06.think the Tories already have one clients -- counselling Glasgow city
:12:07. > :12:10.and it might increase, maybe two MSPs on the regional list system,
:12:11. > :12:13.which I don't know whether the party are necessarily confident about
:12:14. > :12:19.doing before the vote. If that success, with Tories standing in the
:12:20. > :12:22.opinion polls, suggesting they could do well, that could be what stops
:12:23. > :12:29.the SNP from having overall control of Glasgow. What do you think Paul?
:12:30. > :12:36.In terms of local government, looking at 2012 the SNP got 32%,
:12:37. > :12:44.Labour 31, and Tories 13. Now the SNP are well over 40%, Tories up to
:12:45. > :12:48.27, Labour at 14. A different world compares to 2012. We know that the
:12:49. > :12:51.SNP and Tories will make games and Labour will have heavy losses. If
:12:52. > :12:59.Labour get thumped do you think Kezia Dugdale will say look, I've
:13:00. > :13:02.done my bit, but come on, reasonably you can't immediately going? There
:13:03. > :13:06.is no doubt you would be under severe pressure. To come behind the
:13:07. > :13:12.Tories in one election is pretty bad but to come behind them into
:13:13. > :13:17.successive elections looks dreadful. It's not like there a queue of stars
:13:18. > :13:24.waiting behind her. If not Kezia Dugdale then who else? And Keyser is
:13:25. > :13:28.trying to provide strong leadership for Labour in Scotland and tries to
:13:29. > :13:33.make the party more autonomous and as she is removed she could then see
:13:34. > :13:39.a vacuum in Scottish Labour. Will she stay on? Assuming that rings go
:13:40. > :13:43.as all the polls are suggesting? I think she would be the best option
:13:44. > :13:49.for Labour if she stays on. We will have to leave it there. We are off
:13:50. > :13:55.now for a few weeks. Marine Le Pen has her eyes
:13:56. > :14:03.on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself
:14:04. > :14:08.from her party's controversial past,