:00:36. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,
:00:44. > :00:46.but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto
:00:47. > :00:53.promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.
:00:54. > :00:56.The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously
:00:57. > :01:00.agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but
:01:01. > :01:10.And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's
:01:11. > :01:13.local elections, I'll be talking to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne
:01:14. > :01:16.Wood, and the former leader of the SNP Alex Salmond.
:01:17. > :01:20.Questions are raised over the SNP's policy on fishing,
:01:21. > :01:22.after two of its MPs signed a pledge to oppose
:01:23. > :01:48.They hit an all-time low after coalition government,
:01:49. > :01:49.but are the Lib Dems poised to bounce back,
:01:50. > :01:55.And with me to analyse the week's politics,
:01:56. > :01:56.Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards, Tom Newton-Dunn.
:01:57. > :01:58.They'll be tweeting using the hashtag #bbcsp.
:01:59. > :02:09.So when Theresa May was interviewed just over an hour ago
:02:10. > :02:12.We have absolutely no plans to increase the level of tax,
:02:13. > :02:15.but I'm also very clear that I don't want to make specific proposals
:02:16. > :02:18.on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure that I can deliver on those.
:02:19. > :02:21.But it is, would be my intention as a Conservative Government
:02:22. > :02:23.and a Conservative Prime Minister, to reduce the taxes
:02:24. > :02:32.The Tories like to have a clear tax message in elections, are they
:02:33. > :02:36.getting into a bit of a mess? That method wasn't clear, but does it
:02:37. > :02:41.mean, saying they have no plans to increase the level of tax? We are
:02:42. > :02:45.clear there will not be a rise in VAT, a lot of commentators will get
:02:46. > :02:50.overexcited about that, but there was no great expectations there
:02:51. > :02:55.would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as it is, because even one percentage
:02:56. > :02:59.point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for the exchequer so it is tempting but
:03:00. > :03:07.there has been no speculation that would happen. We can see that she
:03:08. > :03:10.clearly wants to reiterate the language about hard-working families
:03:11. > :03:16.but I don't think we are that much the wiser. Even if she does not put
:03:17. > :03:20.up rates, according to projections the overall tax burden, as a
:03:21. > :03:25.percentage of GDP, is rising, will rise in the years ahead. That is why
:03:26. > :03:29.it was an odd phrase, I know she is doing it to be evasive but to say
:03:30. > :03:33.they have no plans to raise the general level of taxation, they do
:03:34. > :03:38.have. We also know they have specific plans because it was in the
:03:39. > :03:45.last budget, they had a tax rise which they had to revise, National
:03:46. > :03:52.Insurance rises, so very wisely in my view they are keeping options
:03:53. > :03:56.open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate was a fantasy world, totally
:03:57. > :04:01.unrelated to the demands that would follow. They now have the
:04:02. > :04:05.flexibility, one of the arguments you had heard last time was Philip
:04:06. > :04:10.Hammond saying to her, we have to break away from the 2015 manifesto
:04:11. > :04:15.commitment and we can only do it this way, that is one of the better
:04:16. > :04:19.arguments. The Tories like to talk about tax cuts in elections, whether
:04:20. > :04:26.they do it is another matter, but they are not being allowed to talk
:04:27. > :04:30.about tax cuts, they are now on the defensive over whether they will
:04:31. > :04:33.raise taxes. That is not a healthy position for the campaign to be in.
:04:34. > :04:38.If you look at the numbers, quite frankly, if you will not do this at
:04:39. > :04:42.this election with eight 20 point lead over Labour, then when will you
:04:43. > :04:46.take these tough decisions? Reading between the lines of what Theresa
:04:47. > :04:49.May has said all over different broadcasters this morning, income
:04:50. > :04:53.tax will go down for low-income families, such as the threshold rise
:04:54. > :05:00.that microbes that was already factored in. She has had to commit
:05:01. > :05:04.to it again. VAT will be fat, national insurance contributions
:05:05. > :05:10.will go up. Do you think they will go up? I think so, she had plenty of
:05:11. > :05:16.opportunity to rule it out and she didn't. There was a terrible mess
:05:17. > :05:20.with the budget, it is a good tax argument but not a good electoral
:05:21. > :05:25.argument that you are eroding the base so heavily with people moving
:05:26. > :05:28.into self-employment that as you raise national insurance
:05:29. > :05:31.contributions for everybody but the self-employed, it is something the
:05:32. > :05:35.Treasury will have to look at. The other triple lock on pensions, we
:05:36. > :05:40.don't know if they will keep to that either? If they are sensible they
:05:41. > :05:43.will find a form of words to give them flexibility in that area as
:05:44. > :05:49.well. I would say there is no question over that, that has gone.
:05:50. > :05:51.As Mrs May would say, you will have to wait for the manifesto. That is
:05:52. > :05:56.what all the party leaders tell me! Labour have spent the weekend
:05:57. > :05:58.pushing their messages Speaking at a camapign rally
:05:59. > :06:01.in London yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour
:06:02. > :06:09.government would fix what he called People are fed up, fed up with not
:06:10. > :06:13.being able to get somewhere to live, fed up waiting for hospital
:06:14. > :06:18.appointments, fed up with 0-hours contracts, fed up with low pay, fed
:06:19. > :06:23.up with debt, fed up with not being able to get on in their lives
:06:24. > :06:27.because we have a system that is rigged against so many.
:06:28. > :06:28.I've been joined from Newcastle by Labour's elections
:06:29. > :06:29.and campaigns co-ordinator, Ian Lavery.
:06:30. > :06:41.Good morning. To deal with this rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls
:06:42. > :06:45.it, the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has a 20 point plan for
:06:46. > :06:49.workers out today. When you add up everything he plans to do to help
:06:50. > :06:54.workers, how much will it cost? The full costings, one thing I need to
:06:55. > :06:59.say at the very beginning, the costings of any policy which we have
:07:00. > :07:04.already ruled out and any policy we will be ruling out in the next few
:07:05. > :07:09.days and weeks will be fully costed in the manifesto and in addition to
:07:10. > :07:13.the fact that it will be fully costed, we will see it in the
:07:14. > :07:19.manifesto how indeed it has been funded, so we are very clear,
:07:20. > :07:22.anything we have seen already, and there are some exciting policy
:07:23. > :07:26.releases and there will be more in the future, anything we are going to
:07:27. > :07:30.do will be fully costed and in the manifesto. You announced a 20 point
:07:31. > :07:34.plan but cannot tell me what the costs will be this morning so at the
:07:35. > :07:39.moment it is a menu without prices? It is not a menu without prices, it
:07:40. > :07:44.is a fantastic opportunity. This 20 point plan is something which will
:07:45. > :07:49.transform the lives of millions of millions of people in the
:07:50. > :07:53.workplace... But what is the cost? It will be welcomed by many people
:07:54. > :07:57.across the UK. The fact the costings have not been released, you will
:07:58. > :08:02.have to be patient, it will be released very clearly, it will
:08:03. > :08:06.identify that in the manifesto. Let me come down to one of the points,
:08:07. > :08:12.the end of the public sector pay freeze. Can you give us any idea how
:08:13. > :08:15.much that will cost? The end of the public sector pay freeze, so
:08:16. > :08:22.important to the future of the Labour Party, it is an massive
:08:23. > :08:27.policy decision. Let me say at this stage, Theresa May, the Prime
:08:28. > :08:31.Minister, this morning, on The Andrew Marr Show, did not have the
:08:32. > :08:36.common decency, courtesy all respect to condone the fact that nurses, the
:08:37. > :08:42.heroes of the NHS, have had a reduction of nearly 14% in their
:08:43. > :08:46.wages since 2010 and are using food banks to feed themselves! Does that
:08:47. > :08:53.not say everything that is wrong with today's society? So can you
:08:54. > :08:57.tell me what it will cost, which is what my question was? What I will
:08:58. > :09:00.say is everything the Labour Party pledges, everything that we come out
:09:01. > :09:05.with, what we will roll out between now and the 8th of June, will be
:09:06. > :09:09.fully costed, people will be very much aware of how much the costings
:09:10. > :09:14.will be, where the funding will come from, when the manifesto is
:09:15. > :09:18.published. What about doubling paternity leave, nu minimum wage,
:09:19. > :09:30.four new bank holidays, any idea what it will
:09:31. > :09:33.cost? These are exciting new proposals and of course today cost
:09:34. > :09:35.money but we are the sixth richest economy in the world. It is about
:09:36. > :09:38.redistribution of the wealth we create. We are seeing growth in the
:09:39. > :09:41.economy, it is how we utilise the finances in the best way we possibly
:09:42. > :09:47.can for a fairer society for the many and not the few. You just can't
:09:48. > :09:52.tell me how much it will cost? That is why I will repeat again that you
:09:53. > :09:56.need to be very patient. Do you know the cost yourself? You are the head
:09:57. > :10:00.of the campaign, do you know the cost of these things yourself? I am
:10:01. > :10:04.very much aware of how much the costings are likely to be, they have
:10:05. > :10:10.been identified, they will be published in the manifesto. You
:10:11. > :10:14.really do understand I would not be releasing today, live on your show,
:10:15. > :10:19.any costings or predictions with regards the manifesto. Why not? You
:10:20. > :10:25.have released the policy, why not the cost? Because there is a fine
:10:26. > :10:25.detail and we will identify it to the general public in
:10:26. > :10:28.detail and we will identify it to the general public in the manifesto.
:10:29. > :10:35.We not only explain how much it will cost but we will explain where the
:10:36. > :10:41.funding comes from. Be patient. Will some of the costs be met by
:10:42. > :10:45.increasing taxes? I would think at this point in time there is not any
:10:46. > :10:51.indication to increase basic taxes and again the taxes and spending of
:10:52. > :10:56.the Labour Government with the proposals of the 20 point plan, the
:10:57. > :11:03.issues we have got, housing, the NHS, crime, education will all be
:11:04. > :11:07.identified with the costings in the publication. Can you tell us this
:11:08. > :11:14.morning, we'll tax for most people rise or not to finance this? We in
:11:15. > :11:21.the Labour Party are looking to a fair tax system which will be
:11:22. > :11:26.clearly identified in the manifesto. Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all
:11:27. > :11:32.0-hours contracts. Would that include those who actually like
:11:33. > :11:35.those contracts? There are nearly 1 million, depending on which figured
:11:36. > :11:39.you'd use, there are nearly 1 million people on zero-hours
:11:40. > :11:44.contract and the vast proportion of those want to be able to live a
:11:45. > :11:50.decent life, a secure life, they want to understand whether they will
:11:51. > :11:54.be at work the next day, they're included hours... I understand a lot
:11:55. > :11:58.of people don't like zero-hours contract and your proposal will
:11:59. > :12:04.address that, but there are those, I saw one survey where 65% of people
:12:05. > :12:08.on zero-hours contract like the flexibility it gives them. Will you
:12:09. > :12:12.force them off zero-hours contract or if they like them will they
:12:13. > :12:16.continue with them? We will discuss it with employee is to make sure
:12:17. > :12:20.individuals in the workplace have the right to negotiate hours in that
:12:21. > :12:28.workplace. Guaranteed hours is very, very important. Zero-hour contracts
:12:29. > :12:32.are an instrument in which employers abuse and exploit mainly young
:12:33. > :12:38.people, mainly female people in the workplace. We would be banning
:12:39. > :12:43.zero-hour contract. But there are those, students for example, who
:12:44. > :12:47.like them, would they be forced off zero-hour contracts in your
:12:48. > :12:51.proposal? Our proposal would be banning zero-hour contract and
:12:52. > :12:56.introducing contracts which have set hours in the workplace. You also say
:12:57. > :13:00.no company will be able to bid for a public contract unless the boss
:13:01. > :13:06.earns no more than 20 times the lowest paid, or the average wage,
:13:07. > :13:09.I'm not quite sure which. What would happen if British Aerospace bids to
:13:10. > :13:15.build more joint strike Fighters and the boss is paid more than 20 times?
:13:16. > :13:22.I understand the point you raise but we have an obscene situation in this
:13:23. > :13:26.country, Andrew, in which the bosses at the very top make an absolute
:13:27. > :13:33.fortune... But what would happen then? Who would build joint strike
:13:34. > :13:37.Fighters... The difference in wages between the top earners in the
:13:38. > :13:43.country and the people in the factories, in the workshops,
:13:44. > :13:47.producing the goods, is vast. I understand that is the reason you
:13:48. > :13:52.want a ratio. What I am saying is, what happens if the ratio is
:13:53. > :13:57.greater? Who gets the contract if not British Aerospace? Who else
:13:58. > :14:04.builds the planes? We are going to introduce a wage rate CEO of one to
:14:05. > :14:07.20. -- wage ratio. We want to close the gap between the people at the
:14:08. > :14:11.very top and people who produce the goods. Let me try one more Time, who
:14:12. > :14:19.would build the joint strike fighter? We would look at the issue
:14:20. > :14:23.as it came along but the policy is clear... Can you name a single
:14:24. > :14:30.defence contractor weather boss' salary is less than 20 times average
:14:31. > :14:37.earnings? We are not reducing, we have rolled that out as part of this
:14:38. > :14:43.fantastic plan to transform society to get rid of discrimination, to try
:14:44. > :14:48.and bring together our communities. We will introduce a pay ratio of one
:14:49. > :14:50.to 20. Fair enough, thank you very much.
:14:51. > :14:53.It's a month after the triggering of Article 50, and EU leaders -
:14:54. > :14:56.with the exception of Britain - met in Brussels this weekend
:14:57. > :14:58.to agree their opening negotiating stance, to get the divorce
:14:59. > :15:14.It is inside this psychedelic chamber where Britain's 'Grexit'
:15:15. > :15:19.future will be decided over the next two years, but there is a vast gulf
:15:20. > :15:29.in rhetoric coming from the UK and the EU. With parallel narratives
:15:30. > :15:32.emerging for both sides. There is broad agreement that an orderly
:15:33. > :15:37.withdrawal is in the interests of both sides. But Theresa May's
:15:38. > :15:41.position is that the terms of our future trade deal should be
:15:42. > :15:45.negotiated alongside the terms of our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says
:15:46. > :15:52.the terms of the UK's exit must be decided before any discussion on a
:15:53. > :15:55.future trade deal can begin. But don't forget that divorce
:15:56. > :16:00.settlement. Don't remind me. In Brussels, many think written should
:16:01. > :16:03.pay even more, while in the UK ministers said the divorce bill
:16:04. > :16:09.should be capped at 3 billion. After you. Thank you.
:16:10. > :16:19.For are you looking forward to it? Isn't that divorce bill a bit high?
:16:20. > :16:25.Isn't this about punishing Britain? We are very united, you all seem so
:16:26. > :16:32.surprised but it's a fact. How soon can we get a deal? We have to wait
:16:33. > :16:37.for the elections. It was the decision of Mrs May. It took over an
:16:38. > :16:41.hour for the leaders to make their entrances but once inside it's just
:16:42. > :16:46.a few minutes to agree the negotiating guidelines. They set out
:16:47. > :16:50.three main areas. The first phase of talks on the divorce settlement will
:16:51. > :16:54.deal with the existing financial commitments to the EU, the Northern
:16:55. > :16:58.Ireland border and the rights of EU citizens in the UK. They said a UK
:16:59. > :17:03.trade agreement can be discussed when the first phase of talks
:17:04. > :17:07.reaches significant progress. And that there must be unity in the
:17:08. > :17:14.negotiations, that individual EU members won't negotiate separately
:17:15. > :17:18.with the UK. They are quite good here at negotiating because they are
:17:19. > :17:22.used to it. They set a maximum and then they have to recede a little
:17:23. > :17:28.bit depending on what the other side is prepared to offer. I think there
:17:29. > :17:31.is room for manoeuvre in some issues, but I don't think some of
:17:32. > :17:37.the baseline things will change that much. For example I don't think the
:17:38. > :17:42.European Union will concede on the rights of citizens who are already
:17:43. > :17:48.in the UK. It will be very difficult for them to accept that they will
:17:49. > :17:51.not be any exit bill, and the question of Northern Ireland is very
:17:52. > :17:55.important as well, the hard order question. The baseline things are
:17:56. > :18:00.not going to move that much, then you have room for manoeuvring
:18:01. > :18:04.between. On security, defence and the fight against terrorism, the
:18:05. > :18:08.guidelines said the EU stands ready to work together. And after lunch,
:18:09. > :18:13.friendly signs from some EU leaders as they gave individual press
:18:14. > :18:16.conferences. Paul and said the talks should open doors to new
:18:17. > :18:23.opportunities and even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had
:18:24. > :18:26.earlier said some in Britain were deluded about Brexit, softened her
:18:27. > :18:30.tone saying there was no conspiracy against the UK. Unity was the
:18:31. > :18:36.buzzword at this summit and for once everybody seemed to be sticking to
:18:37. > :18:39.the script. That unity is not only amongst the 27 states, it's also
:18:40. > :18:45.among the institutions so many of the divisions we have seen in the
:18:46. > :18:49.past at European level do not exist. That is very important and it's not
:18:50. > :18:53.be unity that is directed somehow against the UK because I think we
:18:54. > :19:06.all want this to be an orderly process and part of that is that the
:19:07. > :19:09.EU side is unified. So although there are no surprises here, what
:19:10. > :19:13.took place in this room was a significant step towards the real
:19:14. > :19:18.Brexit negotiations which will begin soon after the general election in
:19:19. > :19:22.June, said to be the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetimes.
:19:23. > :19:28.Isabel, Steve and Tom are still with me.
:19:29. > :19:36.Isabel, doesn't the British media have to be a bit careful here? We
:19:37. > :19:40.would never take at face value anything a British politician tells
:19:41. > :19:44.us. We would question it, put it in context and wonder if they are
:19:45. > :19:48.bluffing, but we seem to take at face value anything a European
:19:49. > :19:53.politician says about these negotiations. You only have to look
:19:54. > :19:57.at the front page of the Sunday Times today to see that. They quoted
:19:58. > :20:02.at length Juncker, who didn't like the food at the reception and this
:20:03. > :20:06.and that, and I think the mood is very optimistic. The key thing is
:20:07. > :20:12.the EU trade Commissioner has said we will get a free trade deal and a
:20:13. > :20:15.lot of people seem to be wilfully ignoring that incredibly big
:20:16. > :20:21.concession. That is what will happen in their view. Everything that is
:20:22. > :20:26.said at the moment needs a slight rerun over. They are all in
:20:27. > :20:29.negotiating positions, plus we seem to be completely unaware that they
:20:30. > :20:35.all have their own domestic constituencies as well. Angela
:20:36. > :20:38.Merkel has an important election coming up in September,
:20:39. > :20:42.Euroscepticism is quite different from Britain of course, but there's
:20:43. > :20:46.a different kind of euro scepticism in Germany, she has got to deal with
:20:47. > :20:50.that. Of course she has, which is why you are right, nothing should be
:20:51. > :20:56.taken too seriously out of the mouths of British politicians or
:20:57. > :21:01.European politicians until October this year. We have got to wait for
:21:02. > :21:05.the French elections, then German elections, and if you look through
:21:06. > :21:10.this you can see a way forward. There's no trade talks until pay up,
:21:11. > :21:14.but what was actually written was no trade talks until we make
:21:15. > :21:18.significant progress on the money. You can define significant progress
:21:19. > :21:24.in a lot of ways but come December, fireworks over the summer, we all
:21:25. > :21:28.get very excited about it, in these chairs I'm sure, come December
:21:29. > :21:32.things will look a lot smoother. The German elections are at the end of
:21:33. > :21:35.September but I've seen reports in German press, depending how it goes
:21:36. > :21:42.it could take until Christmas before a new coalition government is put
:21:43. > :21:45.together. The Brussels long-standing negotiating tactic of nothing is
:21:46. > :21:50.agreed until everything is agreed, then I guess the British could say
:21:51. > :21:54.we agree a certain sum of money if that's what it takes but that
:21:55. > :22:00.depends on them, what good trade deal we get. If we don't get that,
:22:01. > :22:05.the sum of money is off the table. In that sense, the two are going
:22:06. > :22:09.parallel. However, I wouldn't entirely dismiss what people are
:22:10. > :22:15.saying in their pre-election periods to their own electorates because
:22:16. > :22:19.they have to some extent to deliver subsequently. Of course Angela
:22:20. > :22:23.Merkel is campaigning and electioneering, who wouldn't, she
:22:24. > :22:27.has a tough election to fight, but she is measured and thoughtful and
:22:28. > :22:31.when she says things like some of the British are delusional, that is
:22:32. > :22:38.unusually strong language for her. What was she referring to? I don't
:22:39. > :22:42.know, it wasn't specific. Have the cake and eat it perhaps the
:22:43. > :22:46.sequencing the British don't want. When they thought the British
:22:47. > :22:49.government was going to effectively demand membership of the single
:22:50. > :22:57.market, that's not going to happen now. Unless you sign up to the four
:22:58. > :23:02.pillars, that's the cake and eat it proposition, which they are right in
:23:03. > :23:07.saying Theresa May has made. But everybody has access, even with no
:23:08. > :23:17.deal you have access. The other side of it is I think there will be a
:23:18. > :23:23.united position from them. And so, as somebody pointed out in that
:23:24. > :23:30.report, they are experienced, tough negotiators, so I don't think it
:23:31. > :23:36.will be quite as easy as some think. I spoke to one of those who drew up
:23:37. > :23:39.Article 50 and they said to me they deliberately put this two year
:23:40. > :23:46.timetable in to make it impossible for anybody to think about leaving.
:23:47. > :23:49.This is really tight, this negotiation. Easy, it isn't.
:23:50. > :23:52.This coming Thursday, voters up and down the country
:23:53. > :23:54.will be going to the polls in this year's local elections.
:23:55. > :23:56.Over the past few weeks I've interviewed representatives
:23:57. > :23:58.of the Conservative Party, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,
:23:59. > :24:02.Today it's the turn of Plaid Cymru and the SNP.
:24:03. > :24:04.A little earlier I spoke Alex Salmond, who until 2014
:24:05. > :24:08.I started by asking him why Scots should vote SNP in local elections
:24:09. > :24:11.when the Scottish Government had just cut central Government funding
:24:12. > :24:27.It's actually a funding increase going into Scottish councils this
:24:28. > :24:30.year, and if you look at the funding position for example between
:24:31. > :24:34.Scottish councils and those in England, which are obviously
:24:35. > :24:37.directly related through the Barnett formula, the funding in Scotland has
:24:38. > :24:48.been incomparably better than that in England so there's a whole range
:24:49. > :24:51.of the -- of reasons... What's happening south of the border
:24:52. > :24:55.indicates the protection the Scottish Parliament has been able to
:24:56. > :25:00.put in that helps vital services in Scotland. But there hasn't been a
:25:01. > :25:04.funding increase, the block grant from Westminster to Edinburgh was
:25:05. > :25:11.increased by 1.5% in real terms but the grant to councils was cut by
:25:12. > :25:16.2.6%. It was going to be a cut of 330 million, the Greens got you to
:25:17. > :25:26.reduce it to 170 million but it is still a cut of 2.6%. Your own
:25:27. > :25:31.Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut to 391 million. You have cut the
:25:32. > :25:34.money to councils. Yes, but councils have available to them more
:25:35. > :25:40.resources this year, and as you say the budget increased that further
:25:41. > :25:43.which is why we put forward an excellent local government budget in
:25:44. > :25:49.Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off...
:25:50. > :25:53.You asked me about Aberdeenshire, and Aberdeenshire has put forward a
:25:54. > :25:59.budget for investment expansion and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3
:26:00. > :26:02.million off the education budget, and I'm very grateful you have given
:26:03. > :26:08.me the opportunity to make that point. The Government in Edinburgh
:26:09. > :26:14.has cut the money to Aberdeenshire by ?11 million. It is a cut. But
:26:15. > :26:18.there is an investment budget in Aberdeenshire that has been made
:26:19. > :26:23.available by the ability to increase the council tax by 2.5% after a
:26:24. > :26:27.nine-year freeze in Scotland, and that has brought more resources into
:26:28. > :26:31.local government and that's why the butchered in Aberdeenshire has been
:26:32. > :26:36.an investment budget including protection of the education budget
:26:37. > :26:40.in the face of a Tory and liberal attempt to cut bit. You have to
:26:41. > :26:43.compare what is happening in Scotland and England, and there's no
:26:44. > :26:49.doubt Scottish local authorities have been much better funded than
:26:50. > :26:52.those in England over the last few years and that's been the ability of
:26:53. > :26:57.the Scottish Government to protect the services at local level. A good
:26:58. > :27:03.reason for voting SNP. If they have been so well funded, why after a
:27:04. > :27:11.decade of SNP rule do one in five Scottish pupils leave primary school
:27:12. > :27:15.functionally illiterate? You have got to take these things... Nicola
:27:16. > :27:20.Sturgeon has made it a top priority to address these challenges but
:27:21. > :27:24.let's take another statistic. 93% of Scottish kids are now emerging from
:27:25. > :27:31.school to positive destinations, that means to further education,
:27:32. > :27:37.apprenticeships or work. Why are one in five functionally illiterate? You
:27:38. > :27:41.argue one statistic, I'm arguing Scottish education is putting in
:27:42. > :27:47.some substantially good performances like the 93% going on to positive
:27:48. > :27:52.destinations. You can't have a failing education system if you have
:27:53. > :27:55.got that 93%, and incidentally a record low youth unemployment in
:27:56. > :28:00.Scotland without the second lowest unemployment rate in Europe. These
:28:01. > :28:05.pupils are being prepared by the Scottish education system. Let's
:28:06. > :28:09.take the figures in the round on education. It's so important. Under
:28:10. > :28:15.your watch, under your government, the Scottish schools in the most
:28:16. > :28:25.important global comparison have fallen from tenth to 19th in
:28:26. > :28:32.science, and 11 to 24th in maths, that is a record of decline and
:28:33. > :28:37.failure. That is by the OECD and first questions about that, but the
:28:38. > :28:42.OECD has also described Scotland is one of the best educated societies
:28:43. > :28:47.in the world. That was from the school system in previous years gone
:28:48. > :28:53.by. For those who are currently in Scottish schools, you have fallen
:28:54. > :28:56.from 11th to 24th in mathematics. The OECD was commenting on
:28:57. > :29:01.introduction of the new curriculum for excellence in which they have
:29:02. > :29:06.given a resounding thumbs up to it, and that's the same source as the
:29:07. > :29:10.rankings which you are comparing. Nicola Sturgeon has said there are
:29:11. > :29:13.challenges on Scottish education, particularly the access through the
:29:14. > :29:18.education system and the attainment gap but don't tell me it's failing
:29:19. > :29:21.when 55% of our pupils have gone on to higher education. That's one of
:29:22. > :29:28.the most impressive figures in the world. Why have you cut 4000
:29:29. > :29:32.teachers? The pupil numbers in Scotland have been falling over
:29:33. > :29:35.recent years as well and now of course we are increasing the number
:29:36. > :29:40.of people going through teachers training so we can make sure that
:29:41. > :29:44.number increases, but listen, the Scottish Government and Scottish
:29:45. > :29:49.Parliament, as you very well know, are subject to real terms spending
:29:50. > :29:52.cuts over the last few years and all public services have been under
:29:53. > :29:56.pressure. The main reason in terms of teacher numbers has been an
:29:57. > :30:00.attempt on the Scottish Government to protect the teacher pupil ratio,
:30:01. > :30:08.and that will now be enhanced by a further taker -- intake. You
:30:09. > :30:14.promised you would reduce primary class sizes to 18 and instead they
:30:15. > :30:20.are now 23.5 and rising. You broke that promise. You didn't mention
:30:21. > :30:24.where we started from. We have kept the teacher pupil ratio very solid
:30:25. > :30:29.in Scotland and that's been against a range of public expenditure cuts
:30:30. > :30:30.but the new intake of teachers into the new teacher training in Scotland
:30:31. > :30:41.I think will enhance the system. You have spent in the pasty in
:30:42. > :30:46.Hollywood 43 hours on Government time debating independence. How many
:30:47. > :30:51.hours have you debated education on Government time? I don't have that
:30:52. > :30:55.they get a hand... The answer is zero, you have spent zero-hours
:30:56. > :31:01.debating education on Government time. Isn't it time the SNP got back
:31:02. > :31:05.to concentrating on the day job? Andrew, as you very well know Nicola
:31:06. > :31:09.Sturgeon has identified a key priority, closing the attainment gap
:31:10. > :31:14.in Scottish education. That is exactly what she has done. Let me
:31:15. > :31:20.answer the question, it is difficult to be in a remote location, if you
:31:21. > :31:26.talk before I answer the question then the view was will not be able
:31:27. > :31:31.to listen. I let you answer that without saying a word. Is this
:31:32. > :31:35.general election about independence, as you say it is, or not about
:31:36. > :31:41.independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says it is? No, I have said exactly the
:31:42. > :31:45.same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The issue what independence will be
:31:46. > :31:50.decided in a national referendum of the Scottish people. The mandate for
:31:51. > :31:54.that referendum was gained in last year's Scottish elections. What this
:31:55. > :31:57.election is about is backing the right of the Scottish parliament to
:31:58. > :32:00.exercise that mandate and also providing real opposition to this
:32:01. > :32:05.Tory Government and allowing the Scottish Parliament to reverse
:32:06. > :32:09.austerity and some of the public expenditure cutbacks you have been
:32:10. > :32:10.talking about, that is what this is about, backing our Scottish
:32:11. > :32:12.Parliament. Alex Salmond, speaking
:32:13. > :32:13.to me earlier. I'm now joined by the leader
:32:14. > :32:20.of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood. You accuse the Government of wanting
:32:21. > :32:25.an extreme Brexit, those are your words. What is the difference
:32:26. > :32:29.between hard Brexit and extreme Brexit? My concern is the way in
:32:30. > :32:33.which we leave the European Union could be very damaging to Wales if,
:32:34. > :32:37.for example, there are tariffs introduced then that would have a
:32:38. > :32:44.real impact in terms of Welsh jobs, and I want to make sure that we have
:32:45. > :32:47.a Brexit that doesn't cause the damage to Wales that could be
:32:48. > :32:53.caused. But what is the difference between extreme and hard? Anything
:32:54. > :32:56.that puts Welsh jobs at risk is either extreme or hard and
:32:57. > :33:00.unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we will do what we can to protect those
:33:01. > :33:05.jobs. You want Wales to remain a member of the single market even if
:33:06. > :33:09.the UK isn't, which would mean Wales having to accept the free movement
:33:10. > :33:21.of people, still being under the jurisdiction of the European Court,
:33:22. > :33:24.and you also want to stay in the customs union which means you could
:33:25. > :33:26.not do your own free trade deals. What is the difference between that
:33:27. > :33:28.and being a member of the European Union? We would be like Norway,
:33:29. > :33:31.outside the European Union and inside the single market. The key
:33:32. > :33:35.question is the issue of jobs and the ability to continue to trade.
:33:36. > :33:40.Wales exports, we are the biggest exporter in the whole of the UK, so
:33:41. > :33:48.there are many jobs reliant upon those goods being able to be sold to
:33:49. > :33:54.the single market. Is it central to the UK? Out of the four countries
:33:55. > :34:01.that make up the UK... Proportionally, yes. If you remain
:34:02. > :34:05.in the single market, it is hard to see how Wales could stay in the
:34:06. > :34:10.single market if the UK -- when the rest of the UK was not, you cite
:34:11. > :34:15.Norway, that has free movement, it has to be said, it effectively have
:34:16. > :34:19.to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court, it is not in the
:34:20. > :34:27.customs union so it can do some of its own free trade deals, but the
:34:28. > :34:31.Welsh people voted to leave. We have to accept the principle of free
:34:32. > :34:35.movement if there is not going to be a hard border between the north and
:34:36. > :34:39.south of Ireland. There is going to be free movement within Ireland and
:34:40. > :34:45.therefore freedom of movement, as we said in the referendum campaign,
:34:46. > :34:50.would be very, very difficult to rule out. You lost that campaign, as
:34:51. > :34:56.you know, Wales voted to leave, 17 Council areas voted to leave, only
:34:57. > :35:01.five voted to remain. Doesn't it explain why your party is going
:35:02. > :35:07.nowhere? A majority in Wales voted to leave but you effectively want to
:35:08. > :35:11.support that and de facto remain in the EU? I don't accept that, we
:35:12. > :35:17.accepted the result but Plaid Cymru now is about defending Wales. There
:35:18. > :35:21.are so many risks facing our people from the jobs perspective, the
:35:22. > :35:25.privatisation perspective, the cuts perspective, and from the fact that
:35:26. > :35:30.the Tories would like to grab power was back from our National Assembly,
:35:31. > :35:33.so the key point... If you look at the Wales bill that went through
:35:34. > :35:37.recently, the list of reserved powers there suggests there are some
:35:38. > :35:44.powers currently within the Welsh Assembly jurisdiction that would be
:35:45. > :35:48.dragged back. Which power was will Westminster take back? They could
:35:49. > :35:55.take powers back over the NHS, for example. There is no indication they
:35:56. > :36:04.want to do that. The Tories have attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my
:36:05. > :36:07.point! Quite viciously. If they increase their mandate, I wouldn't
:36:08. > :36:12.put it past them to try to take power was back over the NHS and then
:36:13. > :36:17.of course we risk our NHS being privatised though this election is
:36:18. > :36:19.all about defending Wales, protecting Welsh people from further
:36:20. > :36:23.all about defending Wales, privatisation and cuts and a power
:36:24. > :36:27.grab from the Tories. Why is there never a breakthrough for your party,
:36:28. > :36:31.Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in Wales for years, the Tories do quite
:36:32. > :36:35.well, Ukip had a surge for a while, it looks like the Tories will have
:36:36. > :36:40.another surge, never you, always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait
:36:41. > :36:43.until Thursday and I think you will see that in many parts of Wales we
:36:44. > :36:50.will increase our representation at a local council level. In the
:36:51. > :36:55.Rhondda, where I am assembly member, we are looking to increase our
:36:56. > :37:03.representation... You are only 13% in the polls will stop which is half
:37:04. > :37:09.of even the Tories in Wales! If you don't breakthrough in the selection,
:37:10. > :37:14.if the real problem is going nowhere, do you think you will pack
:37:15. > :37:19.it in? Robert Green not, I have a job to do, a vision of Wales which
:37:20. > :37:23.is about building up our nation and standing on our own two feet and my
:37:24. > :37:24.job is not done yet. Thank you for being with us as part of your job,
:37:25. > :37:28.we will see how it goes on Thursday. It's just gone 11.35,
:37:29. > :37:31.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:32. > :37:37.in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome
:37:38. > :37:38.to Sunday Politics Scotland. Is fish the SNP's Brexit battle
:37:39. > :37:45.ground, after two SNP MPs sign a pledge not to rejoin
:37:46. > :37:51.the commons fishing policy? Will changes to the way
:37:52. > :37:53.polls are carried out And campaigns for tactical
:37:54. > :37:57.voting are springing up, but how successful will
:37:58. > :38:04.they be in Scotland? The SNP's political opponents
:38:05. > :38:07.are questioning the party's position on Europe after it emerged that two
:38:08. > :38:11.SNP MPs have signed a pledge to protect Scottish fisherman
:38:12. > :38:14.by keeping Scotland out But the Scottish Conservatives
:38:15. > :38:18.claim that's incompatible with the SNP's desire to stay
:38:19. > :38:22.in the European Union. In a moment i'll be speaking
:38:23. > :38:39.to the two sides in the argument. Jews Colin's fishing industry says
:38:40. > :38:43.it is gasping for support. But now the sector's leaders say they have
:38:44. > :38:49.landed a solution, Brexit. When the UK leaves the EU it will also say
:38:50. > :38:55.goodbye to the Common Fisheries Policy which regulates how many fish
:38:56. > :39:01.can be caught and crucially allows a European abode in the Scottish
:39:02. > :39:07.waters. It is one of the reasons why a part of the north-east, like here
:39:08. > :39:11.in Peterhead, favoured Alt in the European referendum, but the
:39:12. > :39:17.Scottish fishing fleet continues to decline. 15 fewer vessels between
:39:18. > :39:23.2014 and 2015, and since 1970 deployment on those vessels has
:39:24. > :39:26.fallen by 49%. The industry blames foreign vessels, and cannot wait for
:39:27. > :39:33.the chance to make Scotland's what is excluded. Scottish Government is
:39:34. > :39:39.committed to staying in the EU, which means being bound by the
:39:40. > :39:44.Common Fisheries Policy. Yet this week, to SNP MPs, including Eilidh
:39:45. > :39:53.Whiteford, appeared to swim against the tide, signing a pledge to pitch
:39:54. > :39:58.the CFP. You cannot reform that part of the CFP. It gets refund every ten
:39:59. > :40:03.years, it has just happened, and it is unfair to ours, the common access
:40:04. > :40:10.of everyone, will not be reformed. The only way is to be out of that,
:40:11. > :40:18.that is just an absolute fact. 60% of the fish and shellfish leaving
:40:19. > :40:23.our waters do so any hands of non-UK EU member states. 60%. That is
:40:24. > :40:30.because of common access. Do we go to France, Spain or Italy and pick
:40:31. > :40:33.6% of the graves and have a winemaking industry? Absurd. Of
:40:34. > :40:39.course not. There appears to be little room forming over on this
:40:40. > :40:43.issue. Membership of the Common Fisheries Policy comes with
:40:44. > :40:47.membership of the EU, to that extent, if Scotland is ever going to
:40:48. > :40:50.go back to the EU, then it would have to rejoin the Cartman 's
:40:51. > :40:57.fishery policy. What they have in mind perhaps is when the UK does get
:40:58. > :41:01.out of the EU, there's not any possibility that it would sign up to
:41:02. > :41:05.the Common Fisheries Policy from outside the EU. Getting to grips
:41:06. > :41:07.with this paradox will take Alves of political strength.
:41:08. > :41:10.Well, joining me now from Inverness is the SNP MP Drew Hendry,
:41:11. > :41:12.and from the Scottish Conservatives, Ross Thomson is in
:41:13. > :41:27.First of all, can you clear this up for us? When Eilidh Whiteford at
:41:28. > :41:32.side of this pledge saying not to join the Common Fisheries Policy,
:41:33. > :41:36.are they giving against SNP policy? That the correct you, I did not sign
:41:37. > :41:42.up to this pledge, but what I would say... I'm saying that when Eilidh
:41:43. > :41:48.Whiteford and Mike Weir... I would say that the SNP are the only party
:41:49. > :41:51.that consistently in all three parliaments supported and protected
:41:52. > :41:55.wherever we can the Scottish fishing industry, and we have always been...
:41:56. > :41:59.Let me finish. We have all been industry, and we have always been...
:42:00. > :42:01.consistent about the Common Fisheries Policy does not work for
:42:02. > :42:04.the efficient immunity of Scotland, and we have said that it should be
:42:05. > :42:11.scrapped or substantially reformed. That remains our position. So it is
:42:12. > :42:15.scrapped or substantially reformed. SNP policy not to join the Common
:42:16. > :42:17.Fisheries Policy even in an independent Scotland? We've just
:42:18. > :42:23.said it should be scrapped or substantially reformed. Noes but you
:42:24. > :42:27.cannot join the EU unless you join the Common Fisheries Policy. What is
:42:28. > :42:32.key is the fact that when negotiations took place to join the
:42:33. > :42:35.EU, the UK Government on its own record to say that Scottish fishing
:42:36. > :42:41.was expendable. That is the stance that they took. But Scottish fishing
:42:42. > :42:47.being about 40% of the allowable EU catch, that is a substantial amount
:42:48. > :42:50.of the ability to negotiate much better deals, and the Tories have
:42:51. > :42:56.let down Scotland for all of this time. I don't understand what you're
:42:57. > :42:59.saying, you seem to agree with the stance that has been taken by Eilidh
:43:00. > :43:03.Whiteford and Mike Ware, but on this programme last Sunday against
:43:04. > :43:11.Robertson, who is from one of your MPs from the same area, said it was
:43:12. > :43:15.SNP policy to rejoin the EU as a full member and to rejoin the Common
:43:16. > :43:24.Fisheries Policy. It is policy to rejoin the EU,... As I said, the
:43:25. > :43:28.policy as it stands, the Common Fisheries Policy, it should be
:43:29. > :43:30.scrapped or substantially reformed. Why did Angus Robertson said was
:43:31. > :43:35.policy to rejoin the Common Fisheries Policy? It should be
:43:36. > :43:40.scrapped or substantially reformed in the form that it is in at the
:43:41. > :43:44.moment. What we need to do is not make the mistakes of the past. The
:43:45. > :43:49.Tories wrote off the Scottish cities in that I fishing industry. Ghosh
:43:50. > :43:55.when the Tories claim that the SNP is split on this issue, the IRA.
:43:56. > :44:02.Noes what you have just said has contradicted what Angus Robertson
:44:03. > :44:06.says. Rejoining the Common Fisheries Policy is the same thing at
:44:07. > :44:12.scrapping it? In the position of rejoining the EU, we would be in a
:44:13. > :44:16.position to renegotiate. This is 40% of the EU's allowable catch, we
:44:17. > :44:20.would be able to renegotiate a far better deal on fishing for Scottish
:44:21. > :44:24.fishermen. We should be concerned about Theresa Mayed only utterings
:44:25. > :44:28.on fishing which was to say that the Spanish fishermen would not want to
:44:29. > :44:37.lose out. Thatcher sent a chilling message. Ross Thomson, can you give
:44:38. > :44:42.as a guarantee that any Brexit negotiations, the Conservative
:44:43. > :44:49.Government in London will not in any way attempt to stay in rejoin the
:44:50. > :44:52.Common Fisheries Policy? I was with Theresa May just yesterday when I
:44:53. > :44:59.heard her state unequivocally that we will be coming out of the Common
:45:00. > :45:02.Fisheries Policy with Brexit. But I find interesting is that neither
:45:03. > :45:05.Eilidh Whiteford or might we are on your programme to justify their own
:45:06. > :45:11.position. The SNP have been trying to take the electorate for fools,
:45:12. > :45:16.try to face both ways. And we don't have them. Drew Hendry said that
:45:17. > :45:22.there is no contradiction because should an independent Scotland try
:45:23. > :45:25.to rejoin the EU, it would try to renegotiate the terms of the Common
:45:26. > :45:30.Fisheries Policy. That isn't really a contradiction, is it? You just
:45:31. > :45:37.heard in your package, Bertie Armstrong made it clear that from
:45:38. > :45:41.the perspective of fishermen, renegotiation is impossible. That is
:45:42. > :45:43.not the point, saying they are contradicting themselves, and I'm
:45:44. > :45:48.saying that if you take literally what Drew Hendry says, they are not
:45:49. > :45:51.contradicting themselves. They want to be within the EU, taking us to
:45:52. > :45:55.the brink of an independent referendum to ensure that we are
:45:56. > :45:59.within the EU, Michael the Common Fisheries Policy as part of a key
:46:00. > :46:04.part of the membership, but having time to the fishing community and
:46:05. > :46:05.saying no, we would be in the CFP, we very fond CFP. They are taking
:46:06. > :46:09.back control of 200 miles of fishery we very fond CFP. They are taking
:46:10. > :46:16.waters, our waters, where we can decide things on her own terms. That
:46:17. > :46:20.is what amenity wants. SNP MPs who signed that led voted not to trigger
:46:21. > :46:25.Article 50. The fishermen can see right through the SNP. They are not
:46:26. > :46:32.buying this. You are going to have become up with a unified position.
:46:33. > :46:33.Mike Weir is your Chief Whip. Interesting listening to Ross
:46:34. > :46:36.Thomson, what is a contradiction Interesting listening to Ross
:46:37. > :46:39.standing outside the Scottish Parliament with a banner saying that
:46:40. > :46:46.if you vote leave, powers will be returned to Scotland overfishing.
:46:47. > :46:49.Then they contradicted that when they said fishermen were wrong about
:46:50. > :46:55.that. Question after question, the UK Government minister said no
:46:56. > :46:56.powers would be returned to Scotland overfishing, they had been buffeted
:46:57. > :47:01.away, because they don't want to overfishing, they had been buffeted
:47:02. > :47:05.make that commitment. They want to trade away fishing rights. In a last
:47:06. > :47:11.attempt to get clarity, your position seems to be not quite Angus
:47:12. > :47:14.Robertson's position. Not Mike Weir and Eilidh Whiteford's position, you
:47:15. > :47:18.say that an independent Scotland would rejoin the EU but you would
:47:19. > :47:24.try to need renegotiate the Common Fisheries Policy. If you didn't
:47:25. > :47:28.manage that coming to rejoin anyway. And I understand it rightly? It
:47:29. > :47:32.makes complete sense that if Scotland had it in a position to
:47:33. > :47:36.renegotiate for membership of the EU, when you're looking at the fact
:47:37. > :47:40.we have 40% of the allowable catch in EU waters, that means that
:47:41. > :47:42.Scotland could get a much better deal than the horrendous situation
:47:43. > :47:51.that has been faced by Scottish fishing since the Tories sold out on
:47:52. > :47:54.this to the EU when they signed up saying that Scottish fishing was
:47:55. > :47:59.expendable. You will hear nothing from the Tories to say that they
:48:00. > :48:02.still believe Scottish fishing is important, and what we are saying is
:48:03. > :48:07.there is an indication they are preparing to use it as none other
:48:08. > :48:13.bargaining chip. Ross Thomson, you were scoffing, why? It is
:48:14. > :48:15.extraordinary to hear an SNP politician who are taking us to the
:48:16. > :48:21.brink of an independence referendum to ensure we out within the U,
:48:22. > :48:23.trying to say it is the Tories want a sell-out fishermen, when it is
:48:24. > :48:25.trying to say it is the Tories want SNP who are trying to drag them back
:48:26. > :48:32.into the EU against their expressed the will. They do not trust the SNP.
:48:33. > :48:36.They have expressed their will on the 23rd of June to leave the EU, to
:48:37. > :48:42.have powers back of their own fishing waters, that is something
:48:43. > :48:45.they are excited about. We have to leave it there. To be continued.
:48:46. > :48:47.The opinion polls didn't quite predict the outcome
:48:48. > :48:49.of the 2015 general election, to put it mildly.
:48:50. > :48:51.Since then, polling companies have been working on ways
:48:52. > :48:55.The polling company YouGov says it tried new methods at last year's
:48:56. > :48:57.Scottish Parliament election, and it's now using these
:48:58. > :49:05.Joe Twyman is from YouGov and joins me now.
:49:06. > :49:17.These new methods, as I understand it, they involve who you select to
:49:18. > :49:23.clock to. It is a combination of two things, selecting who it is we get
:49:24. > :49:26.to take part in our survey is drawn from our panel of respondents, and
:49:27. > :49:32.previously we have always lived at age and gender and region, but we
:49:33. > :49:36.also now incorporated elements of interest in politics and also
:49:37. > :49:41.education, which was such an important social cleavage in a way
:49:42. > :49:44.that society divides around the EU referendum, plus we have general
:49:45. > :49:48.election vote and also in the case in Scotland, in the independent
:49:49. > :49:52.vote. We incorporate all of that into the wee bee select people, but
:49:53. > :49:57.the other element is a matter of recruitment. We spent a matter that
:49:58. > :50:02.back hundreds of thousands of pounds going out across Britain to find
:50:03. > :50:04.people to sign up to take part in our surveys, they sign up to our
:50:05. > :50:07.panel and be pay them to take part. It is a combination of those things
:50:08. > :50:10.that we hope will deliver more accuracy.
:50:11. > :50:20.So what was the problem before? The people you were recruiting to your
:50:21. > :50:24.panel, that you test ideas on, were too politically committed, was that
:50:25. > :50:29.it, or too biased one way or the other? It is slightly more
:50:30. > :50:34.complicated. We recruit people to our panel and then from the panel to
:50:35. > :50:37.take part in specific surveys, and the people we were recruiting were
:50:38. > :50:42.not entirely representative of the nation when it came to things like
:50:43. > :50:47.political interests, so we did have, for instance, younger people who
:50:48. > :50:52.were not engaged. They were in the samples but not in sufficient
:50:53. > :50:57.numbers. What that meant was that, yes, Bay was a miss in 2015, and
:50:58. > :51:03.while it wasn't substantial, in fact the average error in polls in 2015
:51:04. > :51:11.was only 3.3%. But it was large enough to make a big difference. All
:51:12. > :51:15.polls, no matter how perfect, are subject to the margin of error, that
:51:16. > :51:19.is probability and we can do nothing about that. Plus there are only a
:51:20. > :51:25.snapshot of public opinion at the time. But we hope by incorporating
:51:26. > :51:30.these things we will do better this time round. The problem last time
:51:31. > :51:33.was overestimated Labour, wasn't it? Are you confident that you have
:51:34. > :51:39.corrected that and how have you gone about doing it? In the case of, for
:51:40. > :51:44.instance, younger politically disengaged people, because they were
:51:45. > :51:47.not sufficiently represented, they were replaced by younger politically
:51:48. > :51:52.engaged people who generally favoured labour, so by evening out
:51:53. > :51:57.those numbers we think we are in a better place. We test these things
:51:58. > :52:02.internally consistently. Not just nationally but with things like
:52:03. > :52:04.Jeremy Corbyn's leadership election. More generally we have things like
:52:05. > :52:08.the London mayoral elections where More generally we have things like
:52:09. > :52:13.we correctly predicted not just Labour but the Conservative sharers
:52:14. > :52:16.well, so we think we are in a good place this time round, but June
:52:17. > :52:22.eight will obviously be the public test the pollsters look forward to.
:52:23. > :52:27.What is the danger from your point of view this time, what are you
:52:28. > :52:31.worried about? The danger is that as I say, all polls are subject to
:52:32. > :52:37.margin of error, so at any given point the true result may fall plus
:52:38. > :52:42.or minus two or 3% depending on the size of the sample, around a certain
:52:43. > :52:48.figure. In most recent polls we have the SNP on 41, which means they may
:52:49. > :52:54.be on 43 or 39. It doesn't mean they are on 20. So firstly there is
:52:55. > :52:59.movement within their and nothing we can do about it, and secondly, as
:53:00. > :53:02.time moves on, as the campaign passes, things may change
:53:03. > :53:05.significantly, and we will reflect that in our polls, but that doesn't
:53:06. > :53:13.mean that we are doing at the moment is wrong. Last point, a phenomenon
:53:14. > :53:16.which has been remarked on for some time now, shy Conservatives, people
:53:17. > :53:21.which has been remarked on for some who intend to vote conservative but
:53:22. > :53:26.are reluctant to say so to opinion pollsters. When you did this
:53:27. > :53:32.examination, is that a myth or not? It doesn't appear to be a strong
:53:33. > :53:36.case particularly in the case of online research, because of course
:53:37. > :53:42.there you are speaking to a computer and there is much evidence to
:53:43. > :53:47.suggest people are more honest and upfront when talking to a computer.
:53:48. > :53:50.But of course the ultimate problem about how this relates to
:53:51. > :53:55.difficulties is that even once we get the percentage of the vote
:53:56. > :54:01.correct, then how that translates to the 59 seats in Scotland and who
:54:02. > :54:05.wins and loses in each individual constituency, that is extremely
:54:06. > :54:06.difficult to model and makes our job very difficult. Joe Twyman, thanks
:54:07. > :54:08.very much. This week, Parliament is dissolved
:54:09. > :54:11.ahead of the general election. There's much talk of the contrasting
:54:12. > :54:13.fortunes of two parties, Well, I'm joined in Glasgow
:54:14. > :54:17.by Lord Campbell from the Lib Dems, and from Edinburgh by
:54:18. > :54:33.Lord Foulkes from Labour. George Twyman, given the polls I
:54:34. > :54:37.imagine you are going to tell us Jeremy Corbyn is going to win. As
:54:38. > :54:43.you just heard from Mr Twyman, polls are a snapshot and they don't make
:54:44. > :54:49.predictions. He is wise to say that because many of your colleagues are
:54:50. > :54:49.writing off Labour and saying a Conservative government is
:54:50. > :54:54.inevitable, which is a very unwise Conservative government is
:54:55. > :55:01.thing to do. I don't know a few wide to -- old enough to remember the
:55:02. > :55:06.1970 election. The last poll showed Labour, Harold Wilson, ahead by 12%,
:55:07. > :55:13.and they were going to win the election and even west Edinburgh. Do
:55:14. > :55:17.you remember the result? Yes. The Conservatives had a majority of 30.
:55:18. > :55:23.So be very careful making predictions from snapshot polls. I
:55:24. > :55:31.am not making predictions and sadly I do remember the 1970 general
:55:32. > :55:35.election! This is a Westminster general election, that's important,
:55:36. > :55:38.the choice will be between Labour government, caring compassionate
:55:39. > :55:41.Labour government or an increasingly harsh Tory government, and that is
:55:42. > :55:47.the choice facing the people of Scotland. One of the issues Labour
:55:48. > :55:52.has, one of many issues, is that the election in the UK as a whole could
:55:53. > :55:56.well be about Brexit, and up here it could be about another independence
:55:57. > :55:59.referendum. These are two areas Labour would much prefer the
:56:00. > :56:04.election was not about. I think that's what the SNP and the Tories
:56:05. > :56:08.wanted to be about, they want a contest in Scotland between the SNP
:56:09. > :56:11.and the Tories and it will not be that. I don't know if you saw the
:56:12. > :56:20.interview on the Andrew Marr programme this morning but Theresa
:56:21. > :56:25.May, in spite of trying to get onto Brexit and the health service and
:56:26. > :56:29.could not deal with questions about nurses in England and Scotland as
:56:30. > :56:35.well, having to go to food banks because of the low pay. We are going
:56:36. > :56:39.to have concentrations on low pay, zero hours contracts, which have
:56:40. > :56:45.just been the subject today, these will emerge as the issues
:56:46. > :56:53.irrespective of the mantra that Mrs may have been given by Lynton
:56:54. > :56:58.Crosby, that American strategist. Menzies Campbell, you would like it
:56:59. > :57:03.to be about Brexit, wouldn't you? Be in no doubt whatsoever it will be
:57:04. > :57:05.about Brexit. The last part of that interview was taken up with
:57:06. > :57:11.discussing what attitude the 27 members of the EU struck yesterday
:57:12. > :57:16.when they had their meeting to approve the terms of negotiations.
:57:17. > :57:23.But doesn't George Foulkes have a point, when it comes down to brass
:57:24. > :57:27.tacks, all the polls before the EU referendum showed the priority of
:57:28. > :57:31.Europe was way down, and will that not reassert itself in this campaign
:57:32. > :57:35.and what people care about is their standard of living, the NHS and
:57:36. > :57:40.schools? Of course, and that is true North and south of Scotland, but
:57:41. > :57:43.remember we have had a referendum, we have had a government which has
:57:44. > :57:50.made it very clear that its purpose is to come out whatever the
:57:51. > :57:55.circumstances and we know from the speech Mrs may made outside number
:57:56. > :57:59.ten, about the country coming together and politics being
:58:00. > :58:03.divisive, the truth is, the country is very divisive in relation to that
:58:04. > :58:09.result, and the consequence is that it will be about... It may well be
:58:10. > :58:13.about health and education as well... What's your response to the
:58:14. > :58:17.question I ask you, why is it vital that we have another referendum on
:58:18. > :58:24.Europe but forbidden we have another referendum on independence? The
:58:25. > :58:29.referendum on Europe simply said in or out, we don't know the terms. So
:58:30. > :58:34.did the independence referendum. We had a good idea because the SNP
:58:35. > :58:38.produced a 600 page document they said was their manifesto. Which
:58:39. > :58:40.people like you during the referendum campaign said lacked
:58:41. > :58:45.detail about issues like currency so you can hardly say that is the
:58:46. > :58:49.reason we cannot have another independence referendum. It had some
:58:50. > :58:54.detail, it said the price of oil would be $110 a barrel, that was not
:58:55. > :58:59.the case as it turned out. But we are in different circumstances. Some
:59:00. > :59:05.of the national papers speculate that people may go to law on the
:59:06. > :59:12.ground that the final decision requires being ratified by
:59:13. > :59:17.parliament. The point I am making is that, OK, health and education, but
:59:18. > :59:22.the SNP are saying, give us independence and we will resolve
:59:23. > :59:25.these. What the Conservatives say is, if we have a strong mandate,
:59:26. > :59:29.strong government, we will have a good deal in Europe and be more
:59:30. > :59:34.powerful and develop and be able to deal with all these things. It is
:59:35. > :59:41.inextricably tied up in Scotland and the rest of the UK. George Foulkes,
:59:42. > :59:45.would you like Labour to have a much clearer position on Brexit? Not
:59:46. > :59:49.necessarily the Lib Dem position that there should be another
:59:50. > :59:52.referendum, but something that, if you like, could be summed up in a
:59:53. > :59:58.sentence and told to the voters? We are making it clear, we have said EU
:59:59. > :00:01.citizens currently in the UK will be guaranteed that they can stay. The
:00:02. > :00:06.Labour government will do that on day one, give them that guarantee.
:00:07. > :00:10.We have also said that whatever deal is eventually agreed between
:00:11. > :00:13.ourselves and the other countries in Europe, will be for consideration by
:00:14. > :00:17.parliament and if necessary by a referendum but certainly by
:00:18. > :00:21.parliament, before it is approved. So you would like another
:00:22. > :00:26.referendum? No, that is a possibility. How a possibility?
:00:27. > :00:32.Preferably parliament would decide either whether it is appropriate...
:00:33. > :00:35.What happens parliament rejected? That is exactly the position, we
:00:36. > :00:40.revert to where we are at the moment. You have me really confused
:00:41. > :00:50.now, does that mean we just stay in the EU or have another referendum?
:00:51. > :00:53.It depends what the dealers anticipate what will happen. What I
:00:54. > :00:55.am saying is, if Parliament rejects the deal as you have said...
:00:56. > :00:59.Parliament doesn't need to either accept or reject, it can deliberate
:01:00. > :01:06.on it and consider it and asked the government to negotiate further. I
:01:07. > :01:07.think this becomes far too simplistic and far too compensated.
:01:08. > :01:10.You said a minute ago simplistic and far too compensated.
:01:11. > :01:14.should have the final day on the final deal, so I am asking what
:01:15. > :01:20.happens if Parliament says, do you know what, we don't like that? Then
:01:21. > :01:24.I think we revert to the status quo, we continue to be a member of the...
:01:25. > :01:31.We just stay in the EU, what's wrong with that, you would like that.
:01:32. > :01:35.Nothing wrong with that, it is a logical outcome. Why are you
:01:36. > :01:39.demanding another referendum? To determine whether the people of the
:01:40. > :01:43.UK are ready to come out and accepting the terms on which they
:01:44. > :01:47.come out. Let's be clear on this, your position relative to George
:01:48. > :01:50.Foulkes's, are you saying there would only be a referendum if
:01:51. > :01:54.Foulkes's, are you saying there Parliament rejects final deal? No,
:01:55. > :01:56.they would be a referendum to put it to the people of the UK whether or
:01:57. > :02:07.not they want to accept this deal. to the people of the UK whether or
:02:08. > :02:10.So even if Parliament accepted it there should be a referendum?
:02:11. > :02:13.Absolutely. And it would be on the final deal? Yes, and if you don't
:02:14. > :02:17.like the final deal, what's left? Remain. The way this campaign was
:02:18. > :02:20.conducted, it was all about... Boris Johnson, we can have our cake and
:02:21. > :02:24.eat it. It is obvious we can't do that. It was done on the basis that
:02:25. > :02:28.we could retain access to the single market, we can't do that, that is
:02:29. > :02:33.clear from what Mrs May now says is her position. One definite
:02:34. > :02:36.referendum in Europe and one possible. We will have to leave it
:02:37. > :02:38.there for the moment, thank you both very much.
:02:39. > :02:40.Is tactical voting making the most of your ballot,
:02:41. > :02:43.A lot of campaigns have been launched,
:02:44. > :02:45.trying to convince people to vote for this candidate to keep that
:02:46. > :02:48.crowd out or vote for another candidate to keep that crowd in.
:02:49. > :02:51.Peter Barnes is the BBC's senior elections and politlcal analyst
:02:52. > :03:07.Peter, some suffragists say yes, there might be tactical voting but
:03:08. > :03:10.they are dismissive of the likely importance. Is that your view? It is
:03:11. > :03:15.difficult to know what the impact will be. It is possible to overstate
:03:16. > :03:18.it. It is unlikely that tactical voting will affect the overall
:03:19. > :03:22.outcome of the election across the whole country, but in certain
:03:23. > :03:27.constituencies it is possible that if people chose choose to vote
:03:28. > :03:31.tactically, not for the first choice candidate but perhaps their second
:03:32. > :03:36.because they think they have a chance, in some places that might
:03:37. > :03:39.have an impact on the result. Where is this cross dressing going to be
:03:40. > :03:46.happening most, do you think? is this cross dressing going to be
:03:47. > :03:49.Presumably in areas where people who are Remainers might think, if they
:03:50. > :03:54.normally vote Conservative, if they vote Lib Dem they might get another
:03:55. > :03:58.referendum, is that it? I think Brexit is likely to be possibly the
:03:59. > :04:01.most important new factor influencing tactical voting across
:04:02. > :04:06.Britain, and in Scotland there is also the issue of independence were
:04:07. > :04:09.there could be tactical voting between Green and SNP voters, but in
:04:10. > :04:14.England and Wales in particular you might see tactical voting way you
:04:15. > :04:20.could voters decide to vote for a Conservative MP or even in some
:04:21. > :04:23.cases may be a Labour MP they think will deliver a strong Brexit,
:04:24. > :04:25.whereas on the other side the debate, some Green or Lib Dem voters
:04:26. > :04:31.or even Labour voters might choose to vote for a candidate that is not
:04:32. > :04:35.their first choice. Does this not just cancel itself out, or does it
:04:36. > :04:39.their first choice. Does this not depend on the constituency? It will
:04:40. > :04:44.depend on the constituency, really. There are some places where we know
:04:45. > :04:52.the Brexit vote was very strong, and others where it was not. In some
:04:53. > :04:58.remain constituencies for example, tactical voting is more likely to
:04:59. > :05:01.help the Liberal Democrats, perhaps, whereas in the Leave constituencies
:05:02. > :05:07.it is more likely to help the Conservatives, especially with a
:05:08. > :05:11.strongly pro-Brexit MP. George folks, I don't know if you could
:05:12. > :05:15.hear him, he was telling us he thought in the course of the
:05:16. > :05:23.campaign -- George Foulkes, it would be bred -- bread-and-butter issues
:05:24. > :05:27.that would dominate and Brexit would not be the main factor. I am curious
:05:28. > :05:31.as to whether that is your sense. There is this assumption even in
:05:32. > :05:35.what we were talking about a minute ago in tactical voting, that it is
:05:36. > :05:40.because Brexit is overwhelmingly important. What if it turns out it
:05:41. > :05:47.is important but actually it is not that important that it changes the
:05:48. > :05:50.way people vote? Can't be sure quite a lot of polls conducted asking
:05:51. > :05:54.people not just how they are intended to think their most
:05:55. > :05:57.important issues are, and they uniformly suggest that people think
:05:58. > :06:01.that Europe Brexit is the most important issue. The other issues
:06:02. > :06:05.are going to be imported also, and in some parts of the country it will
:06:06. > :06:09.be other bread and butter issues that dominate the campaign, but it
:06:10. > :06:14.is clear that Brexit is going to be a new dividing line that has not
:06:15. > :06:20.been such a big deal happier these elections. This time round it will.
:06:21. > :06:25.It will have some impact. We should be clear, as I understand that, the
:06:26. > :06:31.issue of Brexit or Europe in general has gone from nowhere in the opinion
:06:32. > :06:36.polls, when you ask people what is important, write to the top. It has,
:06:37. > :06:38.not the first time that has happened. Any run-up to the
:06:39. > :06:43.referendum last year, people also saying that Brexit or Europe where
:06:44. > :06:45.the most important issues, and that some previous years near European
:06:46. > :06:51.Parliament elections it has also been high up. Except at those
:06:52. > :06:55.moments, we have tended to see other issues at the top of opinion polls.
:06:56. > :07:00.We cannot say that those opinion polls are definitely right, while
:07:01. > :07:03.above may say that Brexit is the most important issue facing the
:07:04. > :07:08.country, it is not necessarily that which will affect how they vote.
:07:09. > :07:11.Google will vote on a range of different issues. Their perception
:07:12. > :07:13.of party leaders, their wider perception of the little parties.
:07:14. > :07:14.Thank you very much. This week i'm joined
:07:15. > :07:23.by the columnist Ruth Wishart and the political commentator David
:07:24. > :07:34.Torrance. Let's start with that issue of how
:07:35. > :07:40.important Europe is going to be, because the Liberal Democrat are
:07:41. > :07:45.staking a lot on the idea that this will dominate everything, and the
:07:46. > :07:49.SNP are staking a lot with their talk of a second independence
:07:50. > :07:56.referendum. Is it possible that people who wear Remainders, thought
:07:57. > :08:00.they wanted to remain, but it is not that important. It depends which
:08:01. > :08:05.part of the UK you are looking at. In England and Wales, there is a
:08:06. > :08:09.clear excellent dynamic, those who voted leave wanted to be delivered,
:08:10. > :08:12.and you see that manifesting itself in former Labour voters thinking
:08:13. > :08:16.about voting Conservative and of course they are helped in that by
:08:17. > :08:21.Jeremy Corbyn's leadership which is perceived as weak. In Scotland there
:08:22. > :08:25.is a different dynamic, it is much more around the prospect of a second
:08:26. > :08:29.independence referendum, which of course is bundled up with Brexit,
:08:30. > :08:35.although we continue to have a rather mixed messages from the SNP
:08:36. > :08:38.on precisely what the plan is. Or indeed whether this is the issue in
:08:39. > :08:44.the election. Nicola Sturgeon are saying it isn't,... When a snap
:08:45. > :08:49.election was first called, Nicola Sturgeon appeared to frame it in
:08:50. > :08:52.terms of a mandate and a second referendum, and after that they were
:08:53. > :08:56.a couple of polls showing the Conservatives doing better than they
:08:57. > :08:59.had in the past. She shifted and said it was more about a strong
:09:00. > :09:05.opposition and combating the Tories. What you make of this, Ruth, do you
:09:06. > :09:08.think this will be dominated up here by whether or not they should be
:09:09. > :09:12.another independence referendum? The Tories will certainly make it about
:09:13. > :09:17.that. I got a flyer from the Tories through the door the other day, not
:09:18. > :09:23.sure whether it was directed at the local general election. It basically
:09:24. > :09:29.said, no indyref, it over and over again. If you don't want one, vote
:09:30. > :09:34.for the Tories. And those of the electoral literature, both of them
:09:35. > :09:37.are dominated by no independence referendum, and I found that design
:09:38. > :09:40.terms of the local election, because whatever the general election will
:09:41. > :09:45.be about, the local elections are not about an independence
:09:46. > :09:48.referendum. I don't want to freak David Hart here, but curiously I
:09:49. > :09:51.agree with him about things being different on either side of the
:09:52. > :09:55.border. If you say the word referendum in England, it means
:09:56. > :09:59.Brexit, if you saved in Scotland, it means second indyref. Referenda
:10:00. > :10:06.don't have the same weight on either side of the border. Are you going to
:10:07. > :10:12.freak out? I like to think I'm a reasonable person, as is Ruth. What
:10:13. > :10:17.the Tories have done is effectively roll the local and general elections
:10:18. > :10:21.into one and it is encapsulated by a quite clever catchphrase.
:10:22. > :10:23.into one and it is encapsulated by a Curtis was telling us the other week
:10:24. > :10:29.into one and it is encapsulated by a at the local elections would be a
:10:30. > :10:32.good guide for the general election because... Polygamy any
:10:33. > :10:35.circumstances, people were probably just vote on party affiliation
:10:36. > :10:39.rather than anything else. They are being encouraged to do that by
:10:40. > :10:46.Conservatives. They have a slogan, we said no, be mentored. Because
:10:47. > :10:50.they are already campaigning and this goes for all parties, the
:10:51. > :10:54.general election actually started long before it was called by trees
:10:55. > :10:59.are made. It is difficult for the SNP, Ruth, because should they lose
:11:00. > :11:03.a view seats, the opposition parties will say, ha-ha, you don't have a
:11:04. > :11:08.mandate for another referendum. You can understand why Nicola Sturgeon
:11:09. > :11:13.partly, was to say I got that mandate, this is not about that. But
:11:14. > :11:19.it kind of is. The difficulty they have is that there is anything about
:11:20. > :11:22.election fatigue. You will have a lot of people who will fight the
:11:23. > :11:27.local elections then the general election, would be in any hurry to
:11:28. > :11:33.rush into a second referendum. Whatever Nicola Sturgeon timetable
:11:34. > :11:37.is. I says that both the Tories and Labour have run into the same
:11:38. > :11:43.difficulty which is, unless they decouple themselves from London,
:11:44. > :11:46.there was going to run into difficulties. We have Kezia Dugdale
:11:47. > :11:52.at odds with Jeremy Corbyn on various issues, Trident not least of
:11:53. > :11:57.them, and we have Ruth Davidson who was in desperate trouble last week
:11:58. > :12:02.over the rape laws. She cannot say that it is a bad clause, which it
:12:03. > :12:07.is, because she would embarrass her leader. Is that the case? The polls,
:12:08. > :12:18.is, because she would embarrass her some of which has been taken since,
:12:19. > :12:22.the troubled Ruth Davidson got into, have actually shown the Tories vote
:12:23. > :12:27.in Scotland rising. I think there is considerable gap between a bubble
:12:28. > :12:29.analysis which has the rate clause, that is not a comment on a policy,
:12:30. > :12:34.Trident, issues like that which I that is not a comment on a policy,
:12:35. > :12:38.hugely important to the chattering media classes and in debates in
:12:39. > :12:43.Parliament, and what real voters are archly thinking, and as you say,
:12:44. > :12:46.polls conducted since a considerable ongoing row about the rate clause
:12:47. > :12:52.and other issues show the Conservatives on between 20 -- 20
:12:53. > :12:57.and 33% of the vote. I'm not convinced that in electoral terms
:12:58. > :13:01.they are a huge trouble. Within political discourse, and the
:13:02. > :13:03.Scottish Parliament. These are not mutually screws of analyses. The
:13:04. > :13:10.Tory vote could be going up because of other factors, but the discussed
:13:11. > :13:17.at voter level over the rate clause is real. Talking about the SNP and
:13:18. > :13:21.Tories, if you were Labour, Ruth, what would you try to focus on in
:13:22. > :13:29.the selection? They are in danger of not being part of the debate. I BBC
:13:30. > :13:36.Jimmy Power of prayer. Budget cannot see any way for them? They are doing
:13:37. > :13:40.nationally in the polls. They have a big problem come out of the local
:13:41. > :13:44.elections, is this if they want to lose Glasgow. Guys like any hope for
:13:45. > :13:48.Labour in Scotland? No, they are now when the Scottish Tories were 20
:13:49. > :13:50.years ago. They don't have a voice in the debate. Noes
:13:51. > :13:55.I'll be back at the same time next week.