:00:39. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The local election results made grim reading for Labour.
:00:45. > :00:49.With just a month to go until the general election,
:00:50. > :00:52.will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help
:00:53. > :00:57.The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,
:00:58. > :01:00.as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got
:01:01. > :01:08.But is there still really all to play for?
:01:09. > :01:12.And tonight we will find out who is the next
:01:13. > :01:15.President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -
:01:16. > :01:18.after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack
:01:19. > :01:21.on Mr Macron, considered the frontrunner.
:01:22. > :01:24.The SNP remain the largest party in local Government
:01:25. > :01:26.while the Scottish Tories claim only they have the strength
:01:27. > :01:39.We look at the battle to translate local votes into Westminster seats.
:01:40. > :01:43.And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready
:01:44. > :01:46.to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic
:01:47. > :01:49.focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,
:01:50. > :01:51.and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May
:01:52. > :01:57.It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:58. > :02:04.So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental
:02:05. > :02:07.health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,
:02:08. > :02:13.and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health
:02:14. > :02:16.treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be
:02:17. > :02:19.Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking
:02:20. > :02:26.There is a lot of new money going into it.
:02:27. > :02:29.In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion
:02:30. > :02:33.Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it
:02:34. > :02:37.No, it is new money going into the NHS
:02:38. > :02:44.It's not just of course money, it's having the people
:02:45. > :02:46.who deliver these jobs, which is why we need
:02:47. > :02:51.Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health
:02:52. > :02:53.This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,
:02:54. > :03:02.promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.
:03:03. > :03:08.Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the
:03:09. > :03:13.campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the
:03:14. > :03:17.campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin
:03:18. > :03:22.air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,
:03:23. > :03:27.and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no
:03:28. > :03:33.additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We
:03:34. > :03:38.know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap
:03:39. > :03:42.which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not
:03:43. > :03:45.disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the
:03:46. > :03:54.political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,
:03:55. > :04:00.rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce
:04:01. > :04:04.by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the
:04:05. > :04:08.number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are
:04:09. > :04:12.without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.
:04:13. > :04:23.Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage
:04:24. > :04:28.point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is
:04:29. > :04:36.that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but
:04:37. > :04:40.over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the
:04:41. > :04:46.younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is
:04:47. > :04:50.the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery
:04:51. > :04:56.plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,
:04:57. > :05:01.it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income
:05:02. > :05:05.tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average
:05:06. > :05:11.British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than
:05:12. > :05:15.two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end
:05:16. > :05:22.of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS
:05:23. > :05:27.and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance
:05:28. > :05:32.system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the
:05:33. > :05:37.former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said
:05:38. > :05:40.clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the
:05:41. > :05:47.first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.
:05:48. > :05:50.Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on
:05:51. > :05:55.average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people
:05:56. > :06:02.who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have
:06:03. > :06:06.been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are
:06:07. > :06:10.going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health
:06:11. > :06:17.care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen
:06:18. > :06:20.by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?
:06:21. > :06:24.Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax
:06:25. > :06:31.threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition
:06:32. > :06:36.increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by
:06:37. > :06:41.about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose
:06:42. > :06:45.that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask
:06:46. > :06:50.ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the
:06:51. > :06:55.average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that
:06:56. > :07:01.when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps
:07:02. > :07:06.suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two
:07:07. > :07:10.cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a
:07:11. > :07:14.very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told
:07:15. > :07:20.that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They
:07:21. > :07:24.then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent
:07:25. > :07:28.waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump
:07:29. > :07:32.the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to
:07:33. > :07:39.interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on
:07:40. > :07:43.time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance
:07:44. > :07:47.to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to
:07:48. > :07:53.double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do
:07:54. > :07:58.you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on
:07:59. > :08:02.average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country
:08:03. > :08:06.are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the
:08:07. > :08:13.moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it
:08:14. > :08:19.as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government
:08:20. > :08:23.not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the
:08:24. > :08:26.stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these
:08:27. > :08:30.critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the
:08:31. > :08:33.Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to
:08:34. > :08:35.provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining
:08:36. > :08:40.us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious
:08:41. > :08:43.to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,
:08:44. > :08:47.whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say
:08:48. > :08:49.there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a
:08:50. > :08:52.landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set
:08:53. > :08:55.of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give
:08:56. > :08:58.us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with
:08:59. > :09:01.a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock
:09:02. > :09:05.on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.
:09:06. > :09:11.Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local
:09:12. > :09:15.elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing
:09:16. > :09:18.from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,
:09:19. > :09:21.I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm
:09:22. > :09:24.going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered
:09:25. > :09:26.successes for the Tories. But with most councils
:09:27. > :09:28.only getting started, there was plenty of action
:09:29. > :09:33.still to come. It's not quite the night
:09:34. > :09:36.of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news
:09:37. > :09:38.in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold
:09:39. > :09:41.Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,
:09:42. > :09:48.four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward
:09:49. > :09:50.and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being
:09:51. > :09:55.in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself
:09:56. > :10:02.for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,
:10:03. > :10:07.as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,
:10:08. > :10:10.there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people
:10:11. > :10:13.think the election's just I think leave it
:10:14. > :10:17.like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.
:10:18. > :10:19.This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here
:10:20. > :10:23.for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed
:10:24. > :10:29.for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip
:10:30. > :10:40.winning a single seat. The joke going around
:10:41. > :10:47.Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives
:10:48. > :10:49.is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand
:10:50. > :10:53.and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably
:10:54. > :10:58.going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts
:10:59. > :11:01.backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be
:11:02. > :11:04.totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people
:11:05. > :11:07.in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,
:11:08. > :11:10.but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.
:11:11. > :11:13.Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones
:11:14. > :11:18.putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing
:11:19. > :11:21.their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats
:11:22. > :11:24.and seven councils. If the result is what these
:11:25. > :11:29.results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word
:11:30. > :11:33.for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics
:11:34. > :11:42.- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?
:11:43. > :11:46.Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.
:11:47. > :11:48.We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another
:11:49. > :11:51.five years of this. How's it been for you today?
:11:52. > :11:54.Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,
:11:55. > :11:56.I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're
:11:57. > :12:01.disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,
:12:02. > :12:03.but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be
:12:04. > :12:08.wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,
:12:09. > :12:11.not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,
:12:12. > :12:19.the control of a whole council came The section of England
:12:20. > :12:27.in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England
:12:28. > :12:31.that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,
:12:32. > :12:34.do you just have election results The answer is if that's still
:12:35. > :12:41.happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.
:12:42. > :12:42.Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much
:12:43. > :12:47.but I have one here. With the introduction
:12:48. > :12:50.of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham
:12:51. > :12:54.became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came
:12:55. > :12:56.to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second
:12:57. > :13:02.because I've got some I used to present news,
:13:03. > :13:05.as you probably know. I used to present BBC
:13:06. > :13:08.Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,
:13:09. > :13:10.ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -
:13:11. > :13:17.presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day
:13:18. > :13:23.at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government
:13:24. > :13:28.was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives
:13:29. > :13:29.with their best local So another election results
:13:30. > :13:34.day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it
:13:35. > :13:40.all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.
:13:41. > :13:53.Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,
:13:54. > :13:55.and what they might mean for the wider fortunes
:13:56. > :14:07.In England, there were elections for 34 councils.
:14:08. > :14:09.The Conservatives took control of ten of them,
:14:10. > :14:11.gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained
:14:12. > :14:16.While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,
:14:17. > :14:21.and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.
:14:22. > :14:23.In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing
:14:24. > :14:26.a third of their seats, and control of three councils -
:14:27. > :14:28.while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.
:14:29. > :14:32.In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,
:14:33. > :14:38.There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party
:14:39. > :14:40.after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,
:14:41. > :14:47.although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.
:14:48. > :14:50.We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.
:14:51. > :14:54.You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.
:14:55. > :15:07.In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the
:15:08. > :15:12.general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May
:15:13. > :15:15.wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning
:15:16. > :15:19.a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local
:15:20. > :15:23.election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win
:15:24. > :15:28.the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course
:15:29. > :15:31.people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were
:15:32. > :15:36.double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas
:15:37. > :15:43.the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point
:15:44. > :15:45.Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a
:15:46. > :15:48.landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in
:15:49. > :15:52.England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative
:15:53. > :15:58.lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that
:15:59. > :16:02.she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about
:16:03. > :16:06.who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but
:16:07. > :16:09.there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves
:16:10. > :16:14.her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The
:16:15. > :16:18.local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is
:16:19. > :16:22.going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most
:16:23. > :16:27.prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep
:16:28. > :16:31.the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary
:16:32. > :16:35.Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election
:16:36. > :16:39.results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I
:16:40. > :16:45.looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the
:16:46. > :16:50.general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both
:16:51. > :16:53.local elections in these years, but come the general election, they
:16:54. > :16:58.added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen
:16:59. > :17:02.again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.
:17:03. > :17:06.Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local
:17:07. > :17:12.elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in
:17:13. > :17:17.1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.
:17:18. > :17:23.In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --
:17:24. > :17:26.their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition
:17:27. > :17:30.campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of
:17:31. > :17:34.Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth
:17:35. > :17:39.noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip
:17:40. > :17:42.voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to
:17:43. > :17:45.increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,
:17:46. > :17:51.the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the
:17:52. > :17:57.party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the
:17:58. > :18:01.Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we
:18:02. > :18:06.should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in
:18:07. > :18:11.the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper
:18:12. > :18:14.forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is
:18:15. > :18:18.producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum
:18:19. > :18:23.has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,
:18:24. > :18:31.the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do
:18:32. > :18:34.you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially
:18:35. > :18:37.disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional
:18:38. > :18:42.question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been
:18:43. > :18:46.faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively
:18:47. > :18:51.disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south
:18:52. > :18:54.of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly
:18:55. > :18:59.the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the
:19:00. > :19:03.leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they
:19:04. > :19:08.will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the
:19:09. > :19:18.remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa
:19:19. > :19:22.May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote
:19:23. > :19:30.has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining
:19:31. > :19:34.us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I
:19:35. > :19:39.wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced
:19:40. > :19:46.fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the
:19:47. > :19:50.centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.
:19:51. > :19:55.That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the
:19:56. > :20:00.argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,
:20:01. > :20:05.Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of
:20:06. > :20:14.the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue
:20:15. > :20:21.vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the
:20:22. > :20:25.spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like
:20:26. > :20:28.Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British
:20:29. > :20:31.politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact
:20:32. > :20:37.what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not
:20:38. > :20:40.something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,
:20:41. > :20:46.when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,
:20:47. > :20:50.dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad
:20:51. > :20:55.spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain
:20:56. > :20:59.have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like
:21:00. > :21:02.they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too
:21:03. > :21:07.small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest
:21:08. > :21:12.thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has
:21:13. > :21:18.limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We
:21:19. > :21:22.don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is
:21:23. > :21:26.some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a
:21:27. > :21:31.realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.
:21:32. > :21:34.Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the
:21:35. > :21:37.disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been
:21:38. > :21:42.saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They
:21:43. > :21:46.still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have
:21:47. > :21:50.picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a
:21:51. > :21:54.strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's
:21:55. > :21:58.very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel
:21:59. > :22:01.that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job
:22:02. > :22:07.done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour
:22:08. > :22:13.Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are
:22:14. > :22:16.shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has
:22:17. > :22:21.produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was
:22:22. > :22:25.called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the
:22:26. > :22:29.Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off
:22:30. > :22:35.editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party
:22:36. > :22:41.united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over
:22:42. > :22:44.Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David
:22:45. > :22:49.Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for
:22:50. > :22:52.this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because
:22:53. > :22:56.it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to
:22:57. > :23:02.take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at
:23:03. > :23:06.a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a
:23:07. > :23:08.united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a
:23:09. > :23:12.long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big
:23:13. > :23:14.campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no
:23:15. > :23:17.income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -
:23:18. > :23:19.which of course means those earning more than that could
:23:20. > :23:21.face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John
:23:22. > :23:30.McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone
:23:31. > :23:35.earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an
:23:36. > :23:38.increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.
:23:39. > :23:43.For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more
:23:44. > :23:47.to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be
:23:48. > :23:54.a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a
:23:55. > :23:57.society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.
:23:58. > :24:02.We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.
:24:03. > :24:08.Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be
:24:09. > :24:13.paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.
:24:14. > :24:20.But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would
:24:21. > :24:26.not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for
:24:27. > :24:30.the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners
:24:31. > :24:34.won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a
:24:35. > :24:38.policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell
:24:39. > :24:45.also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%
:24:46. > :24:50.of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying
:24:51. > :24:56.to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,
:24:57. > :24:59.you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's
:25:00. > :25:05.manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out
:25:06. > :25:14.and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set
:25:15. > :25:17.out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he
:25:18. > :25:23.is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis
:25:24. > :25:29.just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The
:25:30. > :25:34.polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was
:25:35. > :25:39.it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between
:25:40. > :25:44.now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.
:25:45. > :25:49.Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their
:25:50. > :25:59.share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way
:26:00. > :26:05.is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I
:26:06. > :26:10.satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is
:26:11. > :26:14.a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections
:26:15. > :26:18.are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to
:26:19. > :26:23.put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle
:26:24. > :26:29.income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You
:26:30. > :26:34.lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The
:26:35. > :26:38.journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an
:26:39. > :26:43.easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are
:26:44. > :26:46.comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the
:26:47. > :26:51.terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a
:26:52. > :26:55.challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are
:26:56. > :26:57.determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter
:26:58. > :27:05.policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took
:27:06. > :27:11.place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --
:27:12. > :27:17.took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of
:27:18. > :27:22.British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm
:27:23. > :27:27.election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after
:27:28. > :27:32.his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of
:27:33. > :27:37.mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all
:27:38. > :27:41.of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I
:27:42. > :27:46.am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused
:27:47. > :27:51.on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies
:27:52. > :27:56.like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum
:27:57. > :28:01.wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of
:28:02. > :28:05.earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and
:28:06. > :28:09.funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by
:28:10. > :28:14.the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives
:28:15. > :28:20.of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the
:28:21. > :28:25.few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to
:28:26. > :28:29.be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.
:28:30. > :28:33.You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy
:28:34. > :28:39.Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate
:28:40. > :28:42.his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview
:28:43. > :28:46.straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped
:28:47. > :28:52.him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the
:28:53. > :28:58.reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in
:28:59. > :29:01.Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into
:29:02. > :29:06.celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge
:29:07. > :29:09.him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to
:29:10. > :29:13.travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed
:29:14. > :29:18.on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?
:29:19. > :29:23.Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time
:29:24. > :29:29.with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy
:29:30. > :29:37.Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am
:29:38. > :29:41.convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat
:29:42. > :29:47.on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He
:29:48. > :29:51.said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour
:29:52. > :29:58.while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the
:29:59. > :30:02.doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my
:30:03. > :30:05.constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single
:30:06. > :30:12.voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest
:30:13. > :30:16.thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that
:30:17. > :30:20.people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even
:30:21. > :30:25.talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy
:30:26. > :30:32.Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum
:30:33. > :30:34.wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and
:30:35. > :30:38.sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under
:30:39. > :30:41.this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,
:30:42. > :30:47.but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,
:30:48. > :30:51.perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour
:30:52. > :30:54.leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on
:30:55. > :31:00.the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead
:31:01. > :31:04.the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won
:31:05. > :31:10.the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more
:31:11. > :31:15.might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of
:31:16. > :31:18.the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four
:31:19. > :31:23.weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see
:31:24. > :31:28.further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to
:31:29. > :31:31.Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my
:31:32. > :31:35.constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And
:31:36. > :31:39.also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She
:31:40. > :31:46.should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.
:31:47. > :31:50.Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary
:31:51. > :32:03.people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D
:32:04. > :32:09.and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do
:32:10. > :32:13.that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living
:32:14. > :32:17.standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the
:32:18. > :32:21.living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We
:32:22. > :32:23.have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you
:32:24. > :32:26.for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's
:32:27. > :32:32.elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party
:32:33. > :32:34.won its best ever local government performance,
:32:35. > :32:36.but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote
:32:37. > :32:39.plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously
:32:40. > :32:43.benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for
:32:44. > :32:46.the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now
:32:47. > :32:48.by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,
:32:49. > :32:58.Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip
:32:59. > :33:03.finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the
:33:04. > :33:08.Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't
:33:09. > :33:15.it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go
:33:16. > :33:19.out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney
:33:20. > :33:23.war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from
:33:24. > :33:26.Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime
:33:27. > :33:30.Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one
:33:31. > :33:37.of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really
:33:38. > :33:40.looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a
:33:41. > :33:44.lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our
:33:45. > :33:50.part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the
:33:51. > :33:56.moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to
:33:57. > :33:59.shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing
:34:00. > :34:02.on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their
:34:03. > :34:08.minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime
:34:09. > :34:12.Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong
:34:13. > :34:18.in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back
:34:19. > :34:24.her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last
:34:25. > :34:28.week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to
:34:29. > :34:31.bully the British government, in those circumstances the British
:34:32. > :34:36.people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the
:34:37. > :34:40.Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician
:34:41. > :34:44.in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for
:34:45. > :34:48.your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters
:34:49. > :34:53.are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in
:34:54. > :34:56.the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.
:34:57. > :35:02.There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that
:35:03. > :35:07.once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit
:35:08. > :35:12.negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the
:35:13. > :35:15.focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of
:35:16. > :35:22.policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.
:35:23. > :35:25.The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap
:35:26. > :35:28.the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health
:35:29. > :35:34.service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with
:35:35. > :35:39.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of
:35:40. > :35:40.what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces
:35:41. > :35:44.beyond the control of any individual leader? These are cosmic forces
:35:45. > :35:48.at the moment, it is certainly not Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the
:35:49. > :35:52.job for six months and in half that time he was fighting a by-election
:35:53. > :35:56.-- certainly not Paul Nuttall's time he was fighting a by-election
:35:57. > :35:58.fault. We have two become more time he was fighting a by-election
:35:59. > :36:03.professional than we have been recently. It has not been a
:36:04. > :36:07.brilliant year for Ukip one way or another, as you know, but there are
:36:08. > :36:10.prospects, in future, that are very rosy. I do not believe that the
:36:11. > :36:15.Tories will deliver on other promises that they are now making.
:36:16. > :36:20.The Welsh assembly elections are not until 2021, you are a member of
:36:21. > :36:25.that, but at that point you will not have any MEPs, because we will be
:36:26. > :36:29.out on the timetable. With this current showing he will have no
:36:30. > :36:39.end', you could be Ukip's most senior elected representative. That
:36:40. > :36:43.would be a turnout for the books! -- no elected MPs. The Tories are not
:36:44. > :36:47.promoting the policies that I believe them. You will see that in
:36:48. > :36:52.the Ukip manifesto when it is shortly publish... Leaders talk
:36:53. > :37:02.mainly about the male genital mutilation and is -- female and
:37:03. > :37:08.burqas. No, when the manifesto launched, we have a lot of policies,
:37:09. > :37:15.I spoke moments ago about it, but also on foreign aid. Scrapping green
:37:16. > :37:19.taxes, to cut people's electricity bills by ?300 per year on average.
:37:20. > :37:27.There are a lot of popular policies that we have. We will hear more from
:37:28. > :37:32.that in the weeks to come. Paul Nuttall said "If the price of
:37:33. > :37:36.written leaving the year is a Tory advance after taking up this
:37:37. > :37:41.patriarch course, it is a price that Ukip is prepared to pay". That
:37:42. > :37:46.sounds like a surrender statement? It is a statement of fact, the main
:37:47. > :37:53.agenda is to get out of the EU and have full Brexit. That is why Ukip
:37:54. > :37:57.came into existence 20 years ago. When it is achieved, we go back to
:37:58. > :37:59.the normal political battle lines. Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you
:38:00. > :38:03.very much for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am,
:38:04. > :38:12.you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome
:38:13. > :38:13.to Sunday Politics Scotland. The SNP won most
:38:14. > :38:17.local council seats. While the Tories made
:38:18. > :38:20.significant gains. As the battle lines are drawn anew,
:38:21. > :38:23.we look at the prospects And as France heads to the polls,
:38:24. > :38:42.we'll be asking if TV debates really TRANSLATION: Yes, they deserve the
:38:43. > :38:44.truth. I treat the French like adults, I don't lie to them.
:38:45. > :38:47.I treat the French like adults, I don't lie to them.
:38:48. > :38:50.Local election results don't always have us on the edge of our seats.
:38:51. > :38:53.But when they come just a few weeks before a general election,
:38:54. > :38:56.it's natural to wonder if they're an indicator of things to come.
:38:57. > :38:58.The SNP and the Tories had much to celebrate.
:38:59. > :39:00.The Nationalists now the biggest group in councils
:39:01. > :39:05.But it was the Tories who saw some of the biggest gains of the night.
:39:06. > :39:07.In a moment, we'll chew over what it all means.
:39:08. > :39:19.This is what regime change looks like, the First Minister parading
:39:20. > :39:22.her 39 councillors, as the SNP overtakes Labour in its Glasgow
:39:23. > :39:26.heartland. There is no doubting the overall winner was in this election
:39:27. > :39:30.and what you see is history in the making. They used to top of red
:39:31. > :39:36.Clydeside, but note the city Chambers is a sea of yellow. It's
:39:37. > :39:39.not just here in Glasgow, read throughout the country, the SNP have
:39:40. > :39:43.taken the lead in more local authorities than ever before. Take
:39:44. > :39:47.taken the lead in more local Edinburgh for example, for the first
:39:48. > :39:51.time the SNP is the biggest group on the council. Remarkable free party
:39:52. > :39:58.which didn't have a single Edinburgh councillor as recently as 2003.
:39:59. > :40:02.However, in places like yes vote in Dundee, the Nationalists lost their
:40:03. > :40:06.overall majority. While the Tories have seen gains. Should be barred to
:40:07. > :40:10.be worried? That is just something to do with the STV system. We have
:40:11. > :40:14.this strange system in Scotland where we have four major elections
:40:15. > :40:20.under four different voting systems. I don't think people understand the
:40:21. > :40:24.difference. Do you think the SNP will be worried about the rise of
:40:25. > :40:28.the Conservatives? Not really, because I think we're seeing in the
:40:29. > :40:31.Scottish Parliament that Nicola Sturgeon actually picked his death
:40:32. > :40:36.as the SNP against the Conservatives. She thinks there is,
:40:37. > :40:41.and I agree with her, there is a limit, a ceiling to the Conservative
:40:42. > :40:44.vote in Scotland and she will be looking for disaffected Labour
:40:45. > :40:47.people to come to SNP rather than go to the Conservatives.
:40:48. > :40:50.CHEERING But it is the Tories who have
:40:51. > :40:58.grabbed the headlines. The only party in the selection to make big
:40:59. > :41:03.gains overall. Who would have thought it? Who indeed. Meet
:41:04. > :41:08.20-year-old Thomas care, the first Conservative councillor ever elected
:41:09. > :41:13.in Glasgow Shettleston. The polls predicted a Tory surge, but if you
:41:14. > :41:22.imagined they would see gains in the country's most deprived areas. You
:41:23. > :41:26.don't know any Tories around your? Definitely not. They must have put
:41:27. > :41:30.in the wrong number down. Do you know anyone around you is but a
:41:31. > :41:37.Conservative? A feud. I think if you have swayed towards the way the yes
:41:38. > :41:44.vote went. Celtic, Rangers, getting involved in politics. It is quite
:41:45. > :41:47.clear that there are real no-go areas for Tories now. Even though
:41:48. > :41:51.people might say they will not fulfil eateries, they clearly are.
:41:52. > :41:55.Even though of course the voting system means a new local elections
:41:56. > :41:58.they could not have been a first preference, they could have been
:41:59. > :42:02.second or third. There are still crosses in those boxes now which I
:42:03. > :42:10.think would have been on the ball ten years ago. Would you think this
:42:11. > :42:13.resurgence has come from? -- where. It is not surprising, because it has
:42:14. > :42:23.been coming for quite a long time in Scotland. They had a low base start,
:42:24. > :42:26.but these are with MPs such as Ruth Davidson, there has been a nicer
:42:27. > :42:31.name of the Tory party that the leaders of the Tories in Scotland
:42:32. > :42:38.have had have been personable, very attractive speakers that I think has
:42:39. > :42:43.been of huge benefit to the Tories. But with no mainstream party having
:42:44. > :42:47.automatic control of any council, coalitions will have to be formed
:42:48. > :42:51.and deals done. Given the deed constitutional divide in Scotland,
:42:52. > :42:54.don't hold your breath waiting for any deals between the SNP and the
:42:55. > :42:57.Well, joining me now are the SNP's former
:42:58. > :42:59.Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill and the former Tory
:43:00. > :43:12.Kenny MacAskill, I am curious, given the SNP did very well in these local
:43:13. > :43:15.elections, the Tories did extremely well compare to where they were
:43:16. > :43:20.coming from, where that leaves this idea of a second independence
:43:21. > :43:23.referendum? Do you think it was wise for the Scottish Government makes
:43:24. > :43:27.achieving about it? I think they had no alternative given what happened
:43:28. > :43:28.with the Brexit vote and were Scotland clearly went any
:43:29. > :43:35.significant diffident direction. I Scotland clearly went any
:43:36. > :43:37.don't think it's necessarily immediately on the horizon, because
:43:38. > :43:40.we still don't know where we're going with Brexit, whether we are
:43:41. > :43:44.shooting over the cliff or whether we are going to be able to pull
:43:45. > :43:48.back, so this is going to continue to run and run. The push for an
:43:49. > :43:53.independence referendum came because of actions taken by the UK
:43:54. > :43:55.Government and by an electorate third of the border. Are you saying,
:43:56. > :43:59.when you say it's not an third of the border. Are you saying,
:44:00. > :44:08.prospect, what are you saying in four or five or six years' time? I
:44:09. > :44:11.think it depends upon events. In the rest to begin shooting onto the
:44:12. > :44:18.agenda because of the Brexit vote that had not been anticipated. --
:44:19. > :44:21.independence referendum. Equally, I think it is hard to see how you can
:44:22. > :44:25.have an independence referendum without having some clarity about
:44:26. > :44:29.just what Brexit negotiations are going to result in. Whether it's
:44:30. > :44:33.going to become amateurs, but equally, what the alternative is
:44:34. > :44:36.going to be. Those factors on both have to put before the electorate
:44:37. > :44:41.and at the present moment, they are not there from either side. Do think
:44:42. > :44:44.it would be wiser as an ex-Minister for the Scottish Government to have
:44:45. > :44:48.it be more like what you're saying, which is to say we reserve our
:44:49. > :44:51.options here and we will await anti-white happens, rather than
:44:52. > :44:58.saying, you is the timetable we want to have one by next spring. The
:44:59. > :45:01.timetable is not going to be within the grasp of the Scottish
:45:02. > :45:05.Government, so I think there are going to be difficulties there.
:45:06. > :45:09.People want clarity, but I do think the SNP Government was to them
:45:10. > :45:11.People want clarity, but I do think events. Scotland today markedly
:45:12. > :45:15.different position from the UK on Brexit. The referendum was quite
:45:16. > :45:19.clear about that. The rest were the hard Brexit posted by Theresa May,
:45:20. > :45:26.the language that she has used in the last few weeks is reminiscent of
:45:27. > :45:29.almost preparing for war rather than delicate negotiations of the
:45:30. > :45:32.diplomatic nature, so some of these things are beyond the Scottish
:45:33. > :45:37.Government's control and had to react to them. Again, the SNP did
:45:38. > :45:43.emerge as by far the largest party, but when Nicola Sturgeon says it is
:45:44. > :45:47.ludicrous to claim there has been a backlash against the SNP, given the
:45:48. > :45:50.rise of the Tory vote, surely if ludicrously hard to say it's
:45:51. > :45:58.ludicrous? Clearly there has been. No, nobody can deny they have had a
:45:59. > :46:02.good result. But the other not had the results Margaret Thatcher even
:46:03. > :46:06.John Major was pulling in 1992. There has always been a right of
:46:07. > :46:10.centre vote in Scotland, it hasn't really had that representation
:46:11. > :46:14.probably because of factors coming from London. They are trying to get
:46:15. > :46:16.back to where they were in the 1980s. They are certainly not
:46:17. > :46:23.getting back to the position where they were in the 1950s. This
:46:24. > :46:27.election was won by the SNP. There was a areas where they suffered by
:46:28. > :46:31.tactical voting and a Unionist alliance. There were areas where
:46:32. > :46:35.they know themselves the under middle and their laurels with the
:46:36. > :46:39.general election coming. It it was a victory for the SNP and it was a
:46:40. > :46:46.good night for the Conservatives and disastrous for the Labour Party. I'm
:46:47. > :46:51.not quite sure what your message is that you're trying to send out about
:46:52. > :46:55.the second independence referendum? The indication seems to be there if
:46:56. > :47:00.the SNP don't get 50% or more any general election, somehow they have
:47:01. > :47:03.no mandate for it. I think the big mistake that Nicola Sturgeon made
:47:04. > :47:09.was assuming that all of her supporters, the SNP supporters, were
:47:10. > :47:13.against Brexit and the fact is, tens of thousands of them were in fact in
:47:14. > :47:21.favour Brexit. So we are seeing is an off uncertainty and division cars
:47:22. > :47:29.to buy the first referendum whereby only 2.5 years ago we gave a solid
:47:30. > :47:31.vote 55% to 45%. The fact is, the Scottish Government say we have in
:47:32. > :47:40.our manifesto that if the circumstances are Brexit have arisen
:47:41. > :47:44.because of Brexit, we will use that for a second independence
:47:45. > :47:47.referendum. Bruising that that doesn't matter? I saying that two
:47:48. > :47:53.thirds of the votes cast on Thursday, and a Member that will be
:47:54. > :47:57.a much bigger pool in the general election, two thirds of those were
:47:58. > :48:02.for Unionist parties. The messages that we want the referendum. The
:48:03. > :48:05.normal way we work in politics is that if you see something in your
:48:06. > :48:08.manifesto and then you win the election, you then do it. If you
:48:09. > :48:12.don't do it, the SNP were not keeping commitments in their
:48:13. > :48:14.manifesto, you'd be screaming if it was things over things like
:48:15. > :48:20.manifesto, you'd be screaming if it education and health. They are only
:48:21. > :48:25.keeping their manifesto by having a second independence referendum. By
:48:26. > :48:28.being obsessed with it, the our breaking manifesto. McGregor not
:48:29. > :48:31.answering my question about whether or not you think they have no
:48:32. > :48:39.mandate or whether prounion parties getting over 50% in general
:48:40. > :48:43.elections means that the SNP have less of a mandate? I think they are
:48:44. > :48:46.treading water on Thursday compared to... You're not answering my
:48:47. > :48:55.question! Iamb answering your question. It is clear that there is
:48:56. > :48:58.a majority in Scotland who don't want this referendum. People don't
:48:59. > :49:03.want uncertainty. They want the day job to be done by Nicola Sturgeon
:49:04. > :49:06.and her ministers. They want education to improve. Would you
:49:07. > :49:10.challenge to write to have won if she wants to? Well, I would. I would
:49:11. > :49:15.see the majority in Scotland don't want it. It was a bad idea to have
:49:16. > :49:20.it in your manifesto in the first place. Kenny MacAskill, ginger
:49:21. > :49:24.subject. Labour's plans on tax. These said would be any taxes on
:49:25. > :49:32.subject. Labour's plans on tax. people earning over ?80,000 a year.
:49:33. > :49:39.subject. Labour's plans on tax. -- under. What do you make of that?
:49:40. > :49:42.You can't ask me about the SNP. I would have to say I am not
:49:43. > :49:46.frightened by these things in any way. Far from being some Marxist
:49:47. > :49:51.resurgent John McDonnell, if the policies that are even watered down
:49:52. > :49:57.from Denis Healey. It was him he was herald up by likening Tories know as
:49:58. > :50:05.a manager that Labour should be following. He was going to taxi rich
:50:06. > :50:09.until the pips squeak. I have to say, I don't see why people are
:50:10. > :50:16.getting any palaver. 95% of people... C quite like this idea?
:50:17. > :50:22.Eye think there comes a time when we have to decide what society is about
:50:23. > :50:26.Eye think there comes a time when we soul that is right the coming
:50:27. > :50:31.general election is not going to be about Indyref 2, it will be about
:50:32. > :50:39.the society we seek. And I fear what kind of society the Tories will
:50:40. > :50:48.create. I quite like the policies that Denis Healey carried out and I
:50:49. > :50:56.think people thought the government is under... It has been overblown.
:50:57. > :50:59.John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn I think are incompetent. I have to say
:51:00. > :51:06.the policies they put forward are not the policies of... The policies
:51:07. > :51:12.being put forward by the Tories are right wing and it is becoming more
:51:13. > :51:18.right wing. What do you make of Nicola Sturgeon's comment that it is
:51:19. > :51:23.ludicrous to say there is a backlash against the SNP? She has got a
:51:24. > :51:27.point, the SNP are by far the biggest party in these local
:51:28. > :51:32.elections. You may have done well, but you are way behind. SNP lost
:51:33. > :51:35.elections. You may have done well, overall control in Dundee and Angus,
:51:36. > :51:42.that is part of the Hartland. They have no overall control in any
:51:43. > :51:47.council now. They are the biggest party in most cases, including
:51:48. > :51:51.Glasgow. That is no surprise. They have been the biggest party in
:51:52. > :51:57.elections in the past ten years. But they are treading water. Using there
:51:58. > :52:04.is a backlash? John Curtin said Thursday was a disappointing day for
:52:05. > :52:09.the SNP. They have not made any gains, we made huge gains. Do you
:52:10. > :52:14.think it is a backlash against the SNP by the idea of a second
:52:15. > :52:16.independence referendum? I think it is both. People are sick to death of
:52:17. > :52:20.Indyref 2. Thank you both very much. Now, let's turn to the fortunes
:52:21. > :52:22.of the other parties. The Tory resurgence pushed
:52:23. > :52:24.Labour into third place The Liberal Democrats flat-lined
:52:25. > :52:27.overall, but saw some encouraging gains in seats they're targeting
:52:28. > :52:29.in the general election. And the Greens saw a record number
:52:30. > :52:41.of councillors elected. Labour has held control of Glasgow
:52:42. > :52:45.since 1980 and was dominant for their kids before, but on Friday
:52:46. > :52:53.that hold was broken. Across Scotland Labour lost seats, councils
:52:54. > :52:59.and power. These are not good election results for the Labour
:53:00. > :53:02.Party. They come in a sequence of retreat and advisers. That is bad,
:53:03. > :53:07.Party. They come in a sequence of there is a problem about strategy
:53:08. > :53:12.and a UK level and Scotland level. It is not as bad as it could've
:53:13. > :53:17.been. In Glasgow they have lost control of the city they have
:53:18. > :53:21.reclaimed 30% of the vote. This is not as bad as it could have been
:53:22. > :53:25.reclaimed 30% of the vote. This is foreign labour versus expectations.
:53:26. > :53:31.They are still sort of semi-alive and insignificant parts of the
:53:32. > :53:35.country, the West of Scotland, Edinburgh and Dundee they have got
:53:36. > :53:38.significant representation. But it most cases Labour votes did not go
:53:39. > :53:46.to the SNP but the Tories. They are adamant they can turn their fortunes
:53:47. > :53:51.around, turning -- pointing out they are second in many seats. They think
:53:52. > :53:54.they can trump the Tories as the main Unionist opposition. The
:53:55. > :53:58.Liberal Democrats mostly held steady, although from a base in some
:53:59. > :54:04.cases which was low. They made progress in areas they are targeting
:54:05. > :54:07.to win in next month was 's general election, polling 52% in one of the
:54:08. > :54:12.words and Edinburgh West. When you have such a massive Tory surge come
:54:13. > :54:18.through and we have come out of it unscathed, that is really quietening
:54:19. > :54:24.courage insane. It has put us in a very strong position to win places
:54:25. > :54:27.like Edinburgh West and North East Fife and East Dunbartonshire. And
:54:28. > :54:34.some seats in the Highlands, too. It has been very clear that we have
:54:35. > :54:39.made gains and the result in Edinburgh is fantastic, doubling
:54:40. > :54:43.representation and the sort of result in East Berkshire. The Greens
:54:44. > :54:45.had a record number of candidates elected giving them a presence on
:54:46. > :54:48.had a record number of candidates six councils and the good play a
:54:49. > :54:53.pivotal role in Glasgow City Council, should the SNP decide not
:54:54. > :54:55.to operate as a minority administration.
:54:56. > :54:58.With me now to discuss their party's prospects are Labour's James Kelly
:54:59. > :55:01.and Alex Cole-Hamilton from the Liberal Democrats.
:55:02. > :55:12.Alex, you heard Karen Lindsey there saying when the Tories were surging,
:55:13. > :55:16.it was terrific that the Liberal Democrats held their own. The
:55:17. > :55:19.trouble is that it was you who were supposed to be surging. According to
:55:20. > :55:25.Tim Farron you were going to make huge gains and you have got nowhere.
:55:26. > :55:28.I don't agree at all. Our best result in this election were in
:55:29. > :55:32.those days where we were at the main contention to take this leads from
:55:33. > :55:37.Westminster constituencies. In North contention to take this leads from
:55:38. > :55:46.East Fife where we beat them contention to take this leads from
:55:47. > :55:50.15%. Losing overall for councillors in Scotland is a tremendous triumph?
:55:51. > :55:57.I pay tribute to those councillors who lost. This is an election where
:55:58. > :56:02.there was a national narrative, Theresa May was asking them to vote
:56:03. > :56:10.whether national ticket. We held our own across the country, but over all
:56:11. > :56:14.the SNP in places like East Dumbartonshire, and Dundee and the
:56:15. > :56:18.Highlands, to put and a good position to cars upsets. Are you
:56:19. > :56:24.going to win sees that you just said, you mention? Absolutely. We
:56:25. > :56:32.have activists already on the ground. We see attrition in the SNP
:56:33. > :56:36.vote and these results, it was an STV election when tactical voting
:56:37. > :56:50.does not happen. This was before Pan unionists comment, N Easter March,
:56:51. > :56:53.in Fife and Edinburgh. James Kelly, one of the reasons, perhaps the main
:56:54. > :57:00.reason that the Tories did well, is the position themselves as being the
:57:01. > :57:02.people who are opposed to independence, to another
:57:03. > :57:06.independence referendum and the people who want to retain the United
:57:07. > :57:12.Kingdom. All things which are officially Labour policy. Wide you
:57:13. > :57:17.think it is the conservatives who have managed to position and get all
:57:18. > :57:21.these votes by opposing another independence referendum and not
:57:22. > :57:25.Labour? Because to an extent the Conservatives have become a one
:57:26. > :57:29.issue party. We were clear in the selection we are opposed to
:57:30. > :57:33.independence, a second independence referendum, but we also promoted
:57:34. > :57:37.candidates who were going to stand up for the communities, support
:57:38. > :57:44.public services... But the bottom line is that voters... Tories had
:57:45. > :57:48.nothing to say anything about that. But a lot of voters do not want
:57:49. > :57:53.another independence referendum. Ruth Davidson is good to stop it.
:57:54. > :57:56.Labour, I do not know what they are going to do. What are you going to
:57:57. > :58:00.see in the general election to stop all those people who voted Tory in
:58:01. > :58:04.the local elections, doing exactly the same thing as remark we have got
:58:05. > :58:10.a much more wider and in-depth political messages than the
:58:11. > :58:14.Conservatives. That is saying the electorate are too daft to
:58:15. > :58:19.understand the nuances of your policy. On Thursday, Nicola Sturgeon
:58:20. > :58:21.acted as a recruiting Sergeant for the Tories and people use their
:58:22. > :58:27.votes in protest, voting Tory. the Tories and people use their
:58:28. > :58:35.they could have voted for Labour. They didn't. In these elections
:58:36. > :58:38.coming up, the real reason for these elections is that Labour are in
:58:39. > :58:41.second place. In the vast majority of seats across the country, they
:58:42. > :58:48.are now compared them in these seats. You are John -- running the
:58:49. > :58:52.general election campaign. You going to convince people who voted
:58:53. > :58:56.Conservative Cosby do not want another independence referendum,
:58:57. > :59:02.that Labour is the way to persist that. If you do not want that in
:59:03. > :59:06.Scotland, vote Labour. We are talking about the issues that matter
:59:07. > :59:11.to people. Now, for these photos, look, we have got some proposals
:59:12. > :59:15.about the health service. Now, the main thing is we do not want an
:59:16. > :59:19.independence referendum. Why should we vote Labour question work that is
:59:20. > :59:25.patronising to see people do not care about education and the health
:59:26. > :59:33.service. So why did they vote Conservative? Why did they not
:59:34. > :59:37.fought for you? We will speak about investment in public services,
:59:38. > :59:41.prioritising and tackling issues that matter to people. Do the
:59:42. > :59:44.Liberal Democrats have any better ideas how to sweep up the
:59:45. > :59:49.anti-independence for? You were more ideas how to sweep up the
:59:50. > :59:53.hard line against the second independence referendum than the
:59:54. > :00:01.Tories were. But people voted Tory rather than liberal Democrat. You
:00:02. > :00:05.will see more Tory voters coming over in seats like eastern
:00:06. > :00:13.Berkshire, Argyll and Bute and five to do that. -- eastern Berkshire. We
:00:14. > :00:17.are the only party who stand on the political stage offering Scotland
:00:18. > :00:24.stronger as part of the United Kingdom, and the youth key stronger
:00:25. > :00:28.as part of the European union. We are the only party offering them
:00:29. > :00:35.that. There are reports this morning that Tim Farron and his team, having
:00:36. > :00:39.had a long baleful look at the local election results, have decided the
:00:40. > :00:42.best they can hope for in the general election is to double the
:00:43. > :00:48.number of seats to name. Is that your view? From the hallway you have
:00:49. > :00:52.been talking this morning, it seems you have two or three seats in
:00:53. > :00:57.Scotland you would like to target and your ambitions do not go much
:00:58. > :01:02.further than that. On the contrary. I was on the phone to the federal
:01:03. > :01:10.director of campaigns last night asking that we escalate national
:01:11. > :01:14.investment in seats like Caithness because of the strength of the
:01:15. > :01:19.council results. We are looking to return in strength in Scotland. Are
:01:20. > :01:24.you looking for a Liberal Democrats to become the main opposition? The
:01:25. > :01:28.main opposition party? What was your question question work Tim Farron
:01:29. > :01:36.has been saying that the four domain general election, he wants to be the
:01:37. > :01:41.main opposition. They are asleep at the wheel. We have to increase our
:01:42. > :01:46.national vote share by 7%. We are back in touching distance of Clegg
:01:47. > :01:51.mania back in 2010. You cannot say we are not in position to be that
:01:52. > :01:54.mania back in 2010. You cannot say official opposition when we see a
:01:55. > :02:00.Labour Party that does not know what it believes about Brexit. We are the
:02:01. > :02:02.only party standing up for those 40% of people who voted for roaming. We
:02:03. > :02:07.are out of time. To be continued. The French are at the polls today
:02:08. > :02:10.with the recent fiery TV debate between the two candidates
:02:11. > :02:12.still ringing in their ears. While most of the party leaders have
:02:13. > :02:17.signed up to argue with each other in front of the cameras,
:02:18. > :02:20.the two main contenders for That might impact on the programme's
:02:21. > :02:24.television appeal, but will it have Jonathan Rippon's been looking
:02:25. > :02:28.at a format that has become part of the American electoral landscape,
:02:29. > :02:41.but has a rather more The candidates need no introduction.
:02:42. > :02:47.The first US presidential debate took place in 1960. Nixon came
:02:48. > :02:53.across a shifty and sweaty, compared to the cool and useful Kennedy. Some
:02:54. > :02:55.women cost the election. In the last year's debates, many thought Hillary
:02:56. > :02:58.Clinton outperformed Donald Trump year's debates, many thought Hillary
:02:59. > :03:03.but he still won the election. Donald Trump is not in charge of the
:03:04. > :03:10.law in our country. Because you would be in jail how important are
:03:11. > :03:16.the TV debates? Britain's first was in 2010. With leaders from the three
:03:17. > :03:21.main UK parties at the time. The SNP were not happy at being excluded and
:03:22. > :03:25.went to court. If they had won, the BBC faced having to black out the
:03:26. > :03:28.debate to viewers in Scotland. We are pleased to be able to bring the
:03:29. > :03:34.prime ministerial debates to the people of Scotland and in that
:03:35. > :03:39.regard we take responsibility in terms of due impartiality, fairness
:03:40. > :03:45.and independence very seriously. Nicola Sturgeon, deputy leader of
:03:46. > :03:49.the SNP at the time, had to watch the debate on TV. What a difference
:03:50. > :03:54.a few years makes. In 2015 David Cameron was regularly pursued by a
:03:55. > :03:58.chicken as he tried to dodge another debate. Eventually he relented but
:03:59. > :04:02.on condition that every other leader to part two. Nicola Sturgeon's
:04:03. > :04:06.performance was judged as a success and her party went on to landslide
:04:07. > :04:11.vote today in Scotland. But with the two events related? Less than two
:04:12. > :04:17.years later and it is line again. Well it is for some. We will not be
:04:18. > :04:22.doing the TV debates. Theresa May has made it clear she will not take
:04:23. > :04:27.part in a TV debate. She says it is about leadership barters refusing to
:04:28. > :04:32.defend her record in television debates. Jeremy Corbyn has since
:04:33. > :04:35.decided he will not be taking part either. ITV is going ahead without
:04:36. > :04:42.decided he will not be taking part the Labour or Tory leaders. The BBC
:04:43. > :04:51.says that no leader should stop a programme in the people's interests.
:04:52. > :04:55.Many now believe the real debate has moved online and the major parties
:04:56. > :04:56.are expected to spend millions on a social media campaigns this time
:04:57. > :04:58.around. Well, joining me now from London
:04:59. > :05:02.is Professor Charlie Beckett from the LSE's department
:05:03. > :05:12.of media and communications. The obvious question is do these
:05:13. > :05:15.things make a blind bit of difference? Television is important.
:05:16. > :05:19.things make a blind bit of Photos tell us that is where they
:05:20. > :05:23.get most of their information and the TV debates are the most dramatic
:05:24. > :05:28.form of political television, it is where the TV can really reach out to
:05:29. > :05:41.people who are not the kind of people who will watch a programme.
:05:42. > :05:45.We have just been talking to a Liberal Democrat who said Clegg
:05:46. > :05:49.mania is back, but arguably it never arrived. The Lib Dems didn't appear
:05:50. > :05:56.to get actually much of an update from it in the general election that
:05:57. > :05:59.followed. No, it may not have translated into votes, but it
:06:00. > :06:02.certainly made it a much more interesting campaign, just as Nicola
:06:03. > :06:07.Sturgeon did last time around, when suddenly the rest of the UK were
:06:08. > :06:11.introduced to her. That may have had a negative impact, because the
:06:12. > :06:14.Tories put out a scary story about the SMP and Labour. I think it
:06:15. > :06:22.animates the campaigns, even if it doesn't change the results. That's
:06:23. > :06:24.the most important point of media during the campaigns. Democracy is
:06:25. > :06:27.the most important point of media not just about the result, the ideal
:06:28. > :06:33.that we have a proper conversation, including with the leaders. I wonder
:06:34. > :06:37.if journalists and commentators interpret this, because what happens
:06:38. > :06:41.is you have the TV debate and be hacked and what they mean. But for
:06:42. > :06:47.example during the American presidential campaign, everyone said
:06:48. > :06:51.Tom was full and anyone the election. Was it that he did better
:06:52. > :06:56.because he is somehow by other means convinced people? -- Donald Trump
:06:57. > :07:01.was full. Or is it that sitting watching it, all the commentators
:07:02. > :07:06.misinterpreted what the American people absolutely, journalists over
:07:07. > :07:13.interpret. The love the drama, there it is. They would at the
:07:14. > :07:14.personalities, they look at the glitches. They miss out the basic
:07:15. > :07:20.messages. Thinking about David glitches. They miss out the basic
:07:21. > :07:24.Cameron, when you look to the most serious polls, David Cameron got his
:07:25. > :07:27.basic point across. It's not really about changing things overnight,
:07:28. > :07:32.it's about getting the fundamental messages about your character and
:07:33. > :07:37.your policies indeed out to a much wider audience. You think that
:07:38. > :07:44.Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen debate has had any effect in France?
:07:45. > :07:49.That was extraordinary. Each debate is different. I think that there are
:07:50. > :07:53.people were put off by the hostility that the two of them showed each
:07:54. > :08:00.other. It was a nominal, it was 18 million people watching. --
:08:01. > :08:05.phenomenal. It is up to the politicians, but people should have
:08:06. > :08:08.that option. These things are established in America and the are
:08:09. > :08:11.established in France. We have got used to them, but they have not
:08:12. > :08:16.really been established in the same way here. Do you think that will
:08:17. > :08:20.continue will get a stage soon whether just has to be one of these
:08:21. > :08:26.debates? I am afraid we have no rules, regulations, there is no
:08:27. > :08:29.obligation on the politicians to do them. I think broadcasters will
:08:30. > :08:33.always want to do them and sometimes in Scotland you will get everyone
:08:34. > :08:36.turning up, but of course, you cannot blame the politicians for
:08:37. > :08:39.making political decisions. Theresa May does not want to take any kind
:08:40. > :08:42.of risk. You can't force her to take part. Thank you very much indeed for
:08:43. > :08:45.that. No... Now it's time to take a look
:08:46. > :08:47.back and what's coming This week I'm joined
:08:48. > :08:55.by Kathleen Nutt, journalist with National and the political
:08:56. > :09:12.editor of the Daily TV debates, Kathleen Nutt, what do
:09:13. > :09:18.you make them? I think they are a very important part of the election
:09:19. > :09:22.campaign. Add a element of excitement and drama to a campaign
:09:23. > :09:26.and pull people in who may be our not interested in politics, but by
:09:27. > :09:38.then watching the debates, they will learn about the personality, the
:09:39. > :09:41.policies, and then that will make volley may prompt and vote and
:09:42. > :09:47.increase turnout. Theresa May does not see it like that. She prefers to
:09:48. > :09:51.engage with voters in a much more controlled and safe environment. And
:09:52. > :09:56.also, there are only three words you need to know, strong, stable,
:09:57. > :10:04.Government. What is in it for her by mixing that up? I would say, if you
:10:05. > :10:09.are a strong leader, you should be out there debating with your
:10:10. > :10:11.opponents on TV. What do you think? Cyanide she's not going to take the
:10:12. > :10:20.risk. The Beatles being as they are, there is no need. I think there is a
:10:21. > :10:28.risk there. -- with the polls being as they are. Nicholas Turgeon's in
:10:29. > :10:33.the 2015 leaders debate did her a lot of good here. -- Nicola
:10:34. > :10:41.Sturgeon. Except the dynamic of that election. It was that SNP and Labour
:10:42. > :10:45.are going to gang up. Local election results, Labour it was awful, but
:10:46. > :10:48.John Curtis has been making the point this morning has indeed have
:10:49. > :10:55.various representatives of the Labour Party that the polls said
:10:56. > :11:01.they were about 17 points ahead, in England and Wales it was 11 point
:11:02. > :11:05.times. Their argument is that this is terrible. We are not trying to
:11:06. > :11:08.deny that, but it is not as bad... We are not in this territory where
:11:09. > :11:16.Labour are going to be completely wiped out either in England or
:11:17. > :11:21.Scotland. Real 's. They are partially benefiting in comparison
:11:22. > :11:26.to 2012. It was very bad. The voting system helped them a little bit more
:11:27. > :11:29.than in 2015 where they lost all MPs but one. This time, the nature of
:11:30. > :11:35.the voting system meant they were always going to get the second
:11:36. > :11:39.preferences. When we are looking to the general election, it looks like
:11:40. > :11:47.in terms of real votes, they are not far behind we are Ed Miliband was.
:11:48. > :11:54.Despite everyone think Jeremy Corbyn is the terrible leader. In Scotland,
:11:55. > :11:59.I suspect that is true. But they are quite far behind we are Ed Miliband
:12:00. > :12:04.was in England. What do you make of that, Kathleen Nutt? You can see we
:12:05. > :12:09.are the biggest party, this is a great victory for us. I still think
:12:10. > :12:14.the SNP won the Government elections. They will remain the
:12:15. > :12:17.biggest party in local government in Scotland and in some ways, the local
:12:18. > :12:21.government elections reflected the Scotland and in some ways, the local
:12:22. > :12:28.result of the Holyrood elections last year. With Tories pushing
:12:29. > :12:35.Labour into third place. I think the loss of the Tories will have helped
:12:36. > :12:39.since the EU referendum last year and some of the 38% of auditors
:12:40. > :12:48.reported for Brexit Wooler piled on behind the Tories. -- 32% of voters
:12:49. > :12:52.who voted for Brexit will have piled in behind the Tories. I think it is
:12:53. > :13:00.also a wake-up call for the SNP, they won it, but with 33% share of
:13:01. > :13:06.the vote rather than... This has become a great mystery. As I
:13:07. > :13:16.understand it was 33% of the SNP. It was 24 but the Conservatives and 24
:13:17. > :13:20.Labour. -- 20 four Labour. There are so many independent candidates that
:13:21. > :13:24.distort it a bit. It is quickly that Nicola Sturgeon 's Coll for a second
:13:25. > :13:29.independence referendum has motivated voters. A lot of those
:13:30. > :13:31.voters have chosen the Tories further best outlet for their anger
:13:32. > :13:37.at the prospect of another referendum. That changes the dynamic
:13:38. > :13:39.on the last two elections. In the immediate aftermath of the
:13:40. > :13:43.independence referendum, we had a general election and yes voters were
:13:44. > :13:49.angry and came out in big numbers. It is the same in 2016. I'm not sure
:13:50. > :13:50.it will be the same next month. Thank you both very much.
:13:51. > :13:54.I'll be back at the same time next week.
:13:55. > :14:07.We don't know what it is, but she definitely has... Something.