08/12/2013

:00:38. > :00:43.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

:00:44. > :00:48.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

:00:49. > :00:54.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

:00:55. > :00:59.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

:01:00. > :01:05.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

:01:06. > :01:11.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

:01:12. > :01:15.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

:01:16. > :01:19.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

:01:20. > :01:25.England's Chief Inspector of schools.

:01:26. > :01:30.In the south`east, as Chatham historic dockyard gets ?4.5 million

:01:31. > :01:31.of had on the capital, its politics and

:01:32. > :01:47.those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal

:01:48. > :01:50.students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all

:01:51. > :01:53.we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be

:01:54. > :01:57.glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we

:01:58. > :02:02.are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet

:02:03. > :02:08.something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,

:02:09. > :02:12.Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,

:02:13. > :02:16.the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,

:02:17. > :02:20.thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.

:02:21. > :02:27.The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's

:02:28. > :02:28.Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity

:02:29. > :02:42.to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in

:02:43. > :02:50.the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a

:02:51. > :02:54.moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these

:02:55. > :02:56.statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than

:02:57. > :03:01.everyone predicted. This time, he can stand up and say the economy is

:03:02. > :03:06.better than everybody predicted. A lot better.

:03:07. > :03:15.Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced

:03:16. > :03:20.economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,

:03:21. > :03:24.faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there

:03:25. > :03:28.were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,

:03:29. > :03:32.borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.

:03:33. > :03:38.But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough

:03:39. > :03:42.decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We

:03:43. > :03:45.will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the

:03:46. > :03:54.harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In

:03:55. > :04:00.other news, further cuts to government departments. The state

:04:01. > :04:04.pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s

:04:05. > :04:08.now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small

:04:09. > :04:12.businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,

:04:13. > :04:16.and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all

:04:17. > :04:21.big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.

:04:22. > :04:27.The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he

:04:28. > :04:32.could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes

:04:33. > :04:36.out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't

:04:37. > :04:39.think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

:04:40. > :04:45.am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

:04:46. > :04:50.is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

:04:51. > :04:56.Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

:04:57. > :05:02.In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

:05:03. > :05:09.red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

:05:10. > :05:13.than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

:05:14. > :05:18.about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

:05:19. > :05:21.terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

:05:22. > :05:28.the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

:05:29. > :05:32.very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

:05:33. > :05:37.time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

:05:38. > :05:43.now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

:05:44. > :05:47.hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

:05:48. > :05:50.Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

:05:51. > :05:54.significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

:05:55. > :05:57.just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

:05:58. > :06:01.worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

:06:02. > :06:10.revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

:06:11. > :06:13.budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

:06:14. > :06:16.much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

:06:17. > :06:19.it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

:06:20. > :06:24.years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

:06:25. > :06:28.close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

:06:29. > :06:37.graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it

:06:38. > :06:41.gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday

:06:42. > :06:49.Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.

:06:50. > :06:54.Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed

:06:55. > :06:59.Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a

:07:00. > :07:03.consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At

:07:04. > :07:06.the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first

:07:07. > :07:11.time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the

:07:12. > :07:14.baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,

:07:15. > :07:18.nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by

:07:19. > :07:27.Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview

:07:28. > :07:31.this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate

:07:32. > :07:38.Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang

:07:39. > :07:41.onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories

:07:42. > :07:47.hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at

:07:48. > :07:50.someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that

:07:51. > :07:54.doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people

:07:55. > :07:59.thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the

:08:00. > :08:04.main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he

:08:05. > :08:07.can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it

:08:08. > :08:14.were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John

:08:15. > :08:21.Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a

:08:22. > :08:24.good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because

:08:25. > :08:32.he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's

:08:33. > :08:37.much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told

:08:38. > :08:43.he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,

:08:44. > :08:47.to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,

:08:48. > :08:52.after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.

:08:53. > :08:56.Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the

:08:57. > :09:00.referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the

:09:01. > :09:03.press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following

:09:04. > :09:06.the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one

:09:07. > :09:11.interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano

:09:12. > :09:15.recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after

:09:16. > :09:20.your job. How bad was his performance on Thursday? Here is the

:09:21. > :09:27.Shadow Chancellor in action. The Chancellor is incomplete denial

:09:28. > :09:31.about the central facts that are defining this government in office.

:09:32. > :09:40.He used to say he would balance the books in 2015. Now he wants us to

:09:41. > :09:49.congratulate him for saying he will do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this

:09:50. > :09:52.government, it is clearly not just the badgers that move the goalposts.

:09:53. > :10:05.No mention of the universal credit in the statement. IDS, in deep

:10:06. > :10:09.shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the

:10:10. > :10:17.Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy, in other words. Why do more and more

:10:18. > :10:22.of your Labour colleagues think that your boss is below the water line?

:10:23. > :10:26.I'm not sure I accept the premise of your suggestion. I don't think my

:10:27. > :10:30.colleagues believe that George Osborne has a superior argument. I

:10:31. > :10:34.think Ed Balls will certainly trying his best, loud and clear, to make

:10:35. > :10:37.the case there is a cost of living crisis in this country and the

:10:38. > :10:42.Chancellor doesn't understand this. That was essentially the heat of the

:10:43. > :10:46.debate on the Autumn Statement day. One leading Labour MPs said to me

:10:47. > :10:50.that Ed Balls is always looking back, fixated with the rear-view

:10:51. > :10:55.mirror, that was the exact quote. A Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has

:10:56. > :11:00.a strong argument to make, unfortunately it was not made well

:11:01. > :11:09.in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor

:11:10. > :11:15.performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four

:11:16. > :11:19.letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former

:11:20. > :11:22.Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public

:11:23. > :11:26.spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a

:11:27. > :11:32.battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple

:11:33. > :11:36.were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's

:11:37. > :11:41.fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,

:11:42. > :11:54.nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We

:11:55. > :11:57.have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of

:11:58. > :12:02.evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was

:12:03. > :12:06.making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not

:12:07. > :12:10.have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are

:12:11. > :12:15.concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are

:12:16. > :12:18.getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn

:12:19. > :12:27.Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very

:12:28. > :12:30.big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is

:12:31. > :12:35.setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.

:12:36. > :12:39.What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of

:12:40. > :12:42.measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If

:12:43. > :12:45.you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

:12:46. > :12:51.get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

:12:52. > :12:54.doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's

:12:55. > :12:59.investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our

:13:00. > :13:11.economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen

:13:12. > :13:14.a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.

:13:15. > :13:19.Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.

:13:20. > :13:24.That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

:13:25. > :13:29.all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

:13:30. > :13:35.to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

:13:36. > :13:38.cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

:13:39. > :13:43.You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

:13:44. > :13:48.correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

:13:49. > :13:52.going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

:13:53. > :13:58.include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

:13:59. > :14:02.cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

:14:03. > :14:08.in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good

:14:09. > :14:11.idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare

:14:12. > :14:14.issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be

:14:15. > :14:19.sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the

:14:20. > :14:25.careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme

:14:26. > :14:28.at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real

:14:29. > :14:32.question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.

:14:33. > :14:37.I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our

:14:38. > :14:41.plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the

:14:42. > :14:46.welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the

:14:47. > :14:51.long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare

:14:52. > :14:54.issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will

:14:55. > :15:02.not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the

:15:03. > :15:09.Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 2015?

:15:10. > :15:13.We want to stick with the triple lock on the pension, that is the

:15:14. > :15:16.Government approach to their short-term welfare cap. In the

:15:17. > :15:23.longer term, for example, on the winter fuel allowance, we should not

:15:24. > :15:26.necessarily be... There are lots of benefits... I understand that, I am

:15:27. > :15:31.talking about the basic state pension, is that part of your

:15:32. > :15:42.welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40 year frame... Even you will not be

:15:43. > :15:46.around in government, then. You are writing me off already. You have to

:15:47. > :15:50.focus on welfare changes, pensions have to be affordable as part of

:15:51. > :15:54.that. It's dangerous to say, well, if you are going to have a serious

:15:55. > :15:59.welfare cap, we should not look at pensions cost. It would be

:16:00. > :16:05.irresponsible. Will pensions be part of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if

:16:06. > :16:14.Labour is in power? In our long-term cap we have to make sure... I'm

:16:15. > :16:15.talking about 2015-16. We haven't seen the proposition the Government

:16:16. > :16:28.has put before us. You claim people of ?1600 worse off

:16:29. > :16:33.under the coalition. That is true when you compare to pay and prices.

:16:34. > :16:38.Can you confirm that calculation does not include the ?700 tax cut

:16:39. > :16:44.from raising the income tax threshold, huge savings on mortgages

:16:45. > :16:47.because of low interest or the freezing of council tax? It doesn't

:16:48. > :16:53.include the tax and benefit changes. If you do want to look at

:16:54. > :16:59.those, last year, the ISS said they could be making people worse off. It

:17:00. > :17:08.might not include those factors. The VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child

:17:09. > :17:13.benefit cuts, they all add up. My understanding is that the ISS

:17:14. > :17:18.figures have said people are ?891 worse off if you look at the tax and

:17:19. > :17:24.benefit changes since 2010. You have to look at wages and prices. The ISS

:17:25. > :17:28.confirmed our approach was broadly the right way of assessing what is

:17:29. > :17:36.happening. The Chancellor was saying, real household disposable

:17:37. > :17:42.incomes are rising. He is completely out of touch. Can you sum up the

:17:43. > :17:46.macro economic policy for Labour? Invest in the future, make sure we

:17:47. > :17:49.have the right approach for the long-term politicking. Tackle the

:17:50. > :17:53.cost of living crisis people are facing.

:17:54. > :17:59.Now, let's talk to the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid

:18:00. > :18:05.Javid. Discovery, underpinned by rising

:18:06. > :18:10.house prices, increasing personal debt, do you accept that is

:18:11. > :18:15.unsustainable? I accept the OBE are also said the

:18:16. > :18:24.reason why this country is facing more these challenges -- OBR.

:18:25. > :18:30.That is because we went through a Labour recession, the worst we have

:18:31. > :18:37.seen in 100 years. But do you accept that a recovery underpinned by these

:18:38. > :18:41.things I have just read out isn't sustainable? We set out a long-term

:18:42. > :18:47.plan for recovery, and again this week. We have shown with the tough

:18:48. > :18:51.decisions we have made already, the country can enjoy a recovery. There

:18:52. > :18:58.are still a lot of difficult decisions. The biggest risk are

:18:59. > :19:07.Labour's plans. The March projections work at for those -- for

:19:08. > :19:12.both business investment and exports. Suddenly it is expected to

:19:13. > :19:17.rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround in investment. How is it credible? I

:19:18. > :19:22.have been in business before politics. Any business person

:19:23. > :19:27.listening will know, when you have gone through a recession, the

:19:28. > :19:33.deepest in 100 years, it will hit investment, profits, you can't make

:19:34. > :19:35.plans again until you have confidence in the economy. That is

:19:36. > :19:45.what this country is seeing now under this government. This is an

:19:46. > :19:50.assumption made independently. The fall in business investment is

:19:51. > :19:57.because of the recession. The forecast increases, 5% next year,

:19:58. > :20:03.and so on, it is based on the independent forecast. Based on fact.

:20:04. > :20:11.If you look at the investment plans of companies, this week, the

:20:12. > :20:16.Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land Rover has plans to create more

:20:17. > :20:20.jobs, these investment plans are coming through now because of the

:20:21. > :20:24.confidence generated by this government, such as the cut in

:20:25. > :20:32.corporation tax which Labour would increase. Are the export forecasts

:20:33. > :20:37.more credible? The 15 years, our share of world trade decline.

:20:38. > :20:44.Suddenly starting next year, it stops falling. That's not credible.

:20:45. > :20:51.I worked in finance the 20 years. I have yet to find any forecast which

:20:52. > :20:57.is fully right. Under Labour, we would have forecasts made by Gordon

:20:58. > :21:01.Brown who would announce he would hit all his targets. Now we have an

:21:02. > :21:08.independent system. Do you accept, if exports or

:21:09. > :21:13.business investment do not pick up, then a purely consumer led recovery

:21:14. > :21:18.is not sustainable? We need more than a consumer led recovery. We

:21:19. > :21:24.need consumer investment to go up. On Xbox, it is noticeable that

:21:25. > :21:30.experts are primarily down because the markets we trade with, the

:21:31. > :21:34.eurozone markets, are depressed. Many have just come out of

:21:35. > :21:41.recession. Or they are still in recession. If you look at exports to

:21:42. > :21:49.non-EU countries, they are up 30%. 120% to China. 100% to Russia.

:21:50. > :21:56.Will you keep the triple lock for the state pension beyond 2015? Yes,

:21:57. > :22:00.long term. That's why it is not part of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie

:22:01. > :22:09.cannot answer that question. It is straightforward.

:22:10. > :22:16.House prices are now rising ten times faster than average earnings.

:22:17. > :22:21.That's not good. House prices are rising, partly reflecting recovery.

:22:22. > :22:25.Ten times faster than average earnings, how can people afford to

:22:26. > :22:30.buy homes if it carries on? What you would hope, this is the evidence, if

:22:31. > :22:37.you look at the plans of the month companies, they are planning new

:22:38. > :22:41.homes which will mean that, as this demand spurs that investment, more

:22:42. > :22:45.homes will come about. We need to give people the means to buy those

:22:46. > :23:34.homes. We have introduced the help to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says

:23:35. > :23:49.it will start rising again but as household debt rises again Petr Cech

:23:50. > :23:55.reduces, -- as household debt reduces, we need to make sure there

:23:56. > :23:59.are checks in place. Wages have not been rising in real terms for quite

:24:00. > :24:15.some time. Over the next five years, even as the economy grows, by about

:24:16. > :24:21.15% according the OBR to the OBR -- but people will not benefit. These

:24:22. > :24:26.hard-working families will not share in the recovery. What is the best

:24:27. > :24:31.way to help those families? The government doesn't set wages. What

:24:32. > :24:40.we can do is influence the overall economy. We don't have a magic

:24:41. > :24:44.lever. Wages have been stagnating for five years. When will people get

:24:45. > :24:51.a proper salary? The best way for wage growth is a growing economy,

:24:52. > :24:56.more jobs. We have more people employed in Britain today than at

:24:57. > :25:02.any time in our history. The biggest risk to recovery is if we let Labour

:25:03. > :25:06.into the Treasury with more spending and more debt. Which got us into

:25:07. > :25:13.this trouble. By whatever measure you care to choose, would people be

:25:14. > :25:20.better off come the 20 15th election than they were in 2010? Yes, they

:25:21. > :25:25.will be. Look at jobs. Already more people employed than at any other

:25:26. > :25:29.time in history. Will they be better off? The best way for anyone to

:25:30. > :25:36.raise their living standards is access to a growing job market. But

:25:37. > :25:44.will they be better off? I believe people will be. Compared to 2010.

:25:45. > :25:47.Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This is a credible measure.

:25:48. > :25:53.Now, what do you think the Education Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at

:25:54. > :25:56.school? Hard-working? Hand always up? Top of the class? Well, if he

:25:57. > :25:59.wasn't passionate about education then, he is now. In fact, since he

:26:00. > :26:06.took office, it seems he hasn't stopped working very hard indeed.

:26:07. > :26:10.When the coalition came to power, Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they

:26:11. > :26:13.were on a long march to reform education. Just like Mao, they faced

:26:14. > :26:19.a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion for new school places. They extended

:26:20. > :26:23.Labour's academy programme. There's now about 3,000 in England. But

:26:24. > :26:27.then, they marched even further, creating free schools run by

:26:28. > :26:34.parents, funded by taxpayers. 174 have opened so far. The schools

:26:35. > :26:36.admission code was changed, to give parents more choice.

:26:37. > :26:40.And a pupil premium was introduced, currently, an extra ?900 funding for

:26:41. > :26:44.each disadvantaged child. An overhaul of the national

:26:45. > :26:49.curriculum provoked criticism. Chairman Gove mocked detractors as

:26:50. > :26:54."bad academia". But exam reforms didn't quite go to plan. Although

:26:55. > :26:58.GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.

:26:59. > :27:04.Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the

:27:05. > :27:07.classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up

:27:08. > :27:09.to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of

:27:10. > :27:16.Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.

:27:17. > :27:20.Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even

:27:21. > :27:25.allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are

:27:26. > :27:30.stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the

:27:31. > :27:41.system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we

:27:42. > :27:47.changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,

:27:48. > :27:50.satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and

:27:51. > :27:54.schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing

:27:55. > :27:59.gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the

:28:00. > :28:06.OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a

:28:07. > :28:10.minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or

:28:11. > :28:16.even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our

:28:17. > :28:20.domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

:28:21. > :28:24.of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

:28:25. > :28:30.a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

:28:31. > :28:36.as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

:28:37. > :28:46.actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

:28:47. > :28:51.about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

:28:52. > :28:55.conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

:28:56. > :29:00.are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

:29:01. > :29:08.were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

:29:09. > :29:14.for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

:29:15. > :29:19.Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

:29:20. > :29:24.outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

:29:25. > :29:27.level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

:29:28. > :29:34.years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

:29:35. > :29:39.absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

:29:40. > :29:43.Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

:29:44. > :29:44.making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

:29:45. > :29:55.translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

:29:56. > :29:59.up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

:30:00. > :30:04.enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

:30:05. > :30:09.GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The

:30:10. > :30:12.Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In

:30:13. > :30:16.opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was

:30:17. > :30:24.done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why

:30:25. > :30:28.are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I

:30:29. > :30:33.actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that

:30:34. > :30:36.if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the

:30:37. > :30:42.ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the

:30:43. > :30:46.playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used

:30:47. > :30:51.to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,

:30:52. > :30:54.you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower

:30:55. > :31:00.those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and

:31:01. > :31:03.freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local

:31:04. > :31:07.authority schools to become academies and new free school czar

:31:08. > :31:10.being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same

:31:11. > :31:14.level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the

:31:15. > :31:19.evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better

:31:20. > :31:24.than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they

:31:25. > :31:27.might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about

:31:28. > :31:32.this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored

:31:33. > :31:36.academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most

:31:37. > :31:41.difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing

:31:42. > :31:49.much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

:31:50. > :31:53.lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better

:31:54. > :31:58.than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the

:31:59. > :32:08.world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming

:32:09. > :32:11.to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they

:32:12. > :32:16.spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as

:32:17. > :32:22.possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with

:32:23. > :32:26.those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a

:32:27. > :32:29.European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of

:32:30. > :32:34.the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn

:32:35. > :32:39.from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest

:32:40. > :32:44.in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have

:32:45. > :32:49.the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the

:32:50. > :32:52.classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

:32:53. > :33:00.disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

:33:01. > :33:05.doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

:33:06. > :33:08.that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

:33:09. > :33:13.education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

:33:14. > :33:19.independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right

:33:20. > :33:22.things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

:33:23. > :33:27.are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

:33:28. > :33:30.Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

:33:31. > :33:36.pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

:33:37. > :33:41.better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

:33:42. > :33:44.to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

:33:45. > :33:48.better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

:33:49. > :33:52.also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many

:33:53. > :33:56.people in the education establishment think your primary

:33:57. > :34:02.purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

:34:03. > :34:07.becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

:34:08. > :34:11.academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

:34:12. > :34:15.the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

:34:16. > :34:23.am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

:34:24. > :34:29.academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

:34:30. > :34:35.study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

:34:36. > :34:37.standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

:34:38. > :34:41.leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

:34:42. > :34:46.with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

:34:47. > :34:49.air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be

:34:50. > :34:53.qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold

:34:54. > :35:01.standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons

:35:02. > :35:05.that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified

:35:06. > :35:09.teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed

:35:10. > :35:13.by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is

:35:14. > :35:17.to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to

:35:18. > :35:22.scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified

:35:23. > :35:26.teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or

:35:27. > :35:28.modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from

:35:29. > :35:31.university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could

:35:32. > :35:35.communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

:35:36. > :35:40.classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

:35:41. > :35:42.going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

:35:43. > :35:49.local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

:35:50. > :35:53.New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

:35:54. > :36:01.Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

:36:02. > :36:05.examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

:36:06. > :36:09.children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

:36:10. > :36:11.secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about

:36:12. > :36:15.over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

:36:16. > :36:20.school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

:36:21. > :36:25.category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it

:36:26. > :36:29.improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That

:36:30. > :36:32.is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted should pay a much greater part in

:36:33. > :36:38.monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.

:36:39. > :36:44.Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a

:36:45. > :36:49.tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.

:36:50. > :36:53.You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,

:36:54. > :37:04.Diane Abbott will be joining us. And we will have more from our

:37:05. > :37:10.Hello, I'm Natalie Graham and this is the Sunday Politics in the South

:37:11. > :37:13.East. Coming up later: It's our last show of the year, so, from the local

:37:14. > :37:17.elections to protests in Balcombe, crime commissioners to council cuts,

:37:18. > :37:23.we will be taking a look back at the political highs and lows of 2013.

:37:24. > :37:26.Joining me in the studio today is the journalist and Conservative MEP

:37:27. > :37:29.for the South East, Daniel Hannan. And Paul Clark, the former MP for

:37:30. > :37:34.Gillingham and Rainham, who is hoping to win back the seat for

:37:35. > :37:37.Labour in 2015. Welcome to you both. First, last week was a busy one at

:37:38. > :37:40.Westminster. The Chancellor, George Osborne, delivered his Autumn

:37:41. > :37:44.Statement. And he had good news for energy companies who might want to

:37:45. > :37:52.explore for shale gas, but bad news for those of us who were hoping to

:37:53. > :37:56.draw their pension at 65. Daniel, you are an MEP. What do you think,

:37:57. > :38:00.in the announcement buried in the statement, which was the most

:38:01. > :38:03.significant for this part of the world? Specifically for this part of

:38:04. > :38:07.the world, it is that rail fares will only rise with RPI, they will

:38:08. > :38:13.not increase more than inflation, and that is a huge improvement. As

:38:14. > :38:17.Transport Minister, Paul never managed to do that. We felt we were

:38:18. > :38:22.the guinea pigs, the one with inflation plus 1%, plus 3%, and

:38:23. > :38:26.after a lot of lobbying by giddy Conservative MPs in this area and by

:38:27. > :38:30.other local authorities, we managed to at least help people with that

:38:31. > :38:34.part, which is a huge issue for people in this region. It is a fair

:38:35. > :38:40.point, Paul? It would be if they were delivering something. Of course

:38:41. > :38:44.it is welcome, any code that leads to 40 or ?50 pay to 40 or ?50 off a

:38:45. > :38:50.ticket is welcome in these hard times. But, obviously, the

:38:51. > :38:56.south`east were not guinea pigs. People will remember the investment

:38:57. > :39:00.that went into have a reliable train service, on time, punctuality,

:39:01. > :39:03.getting rid of the 40s and 50s rolling stock that was still there

:39:04. > :39:09.in 1997 was absolutely critical and that is what the money went into, to

:39:10. > :39:13.deliver the rail service. Was that the most significant announcement

:39:14. > :39:18.for the south`east? I have to say, what would have been helpful would

:39:19. > :39:23.have been in terms of helping young people today. The number of young

:39:24. > :39:27.people that are unemployed, long`term unemployed, is still far

:39:28. > :39:31.too high. There are some announcement in there that will come

:39:32. > :39:36.into force in 2015, but you are talking about young people today

:39:37. > :39:41.that need help and support. They will be worse off in five years? One

:39:42. > :39:44.of the big changes being brought in now is that we have made it cheaper

:39:45. > :39:49.to employ people under 21, we have given an incentive to employers as

:39:50. > :39:53.part of a general effort of boosting small businesses, the people who

:39:54. > :39:56.generate the revenue that we politicians spend, the small

:39:57. > :40:01.entrepreneurs, employers, shopkeepers, we have taken ?1000 out

:40:02. > :40:05.of the Islamist threat that high street retailers are paying. It is

:40:06. > :40:11.true that people are feeling the squeeze `` we have taken ?1000 out

:40:12. > :40:15.of the business rates that high`street retailers are paying.

:40:16. > :40:19.The single biggest strain for most houses is tax. The one thing

:40:20. > :40:25.politicians can do is lower the tax bill will stop we are going to move

:40:26. > :40:28.on, I'm sorry. There are plenty more opportunities later in the show.

:40:29. > :40:31.Chatham's historic dockyard is a fascinating place. It tells the

:40:32. > :40:36.story of 400 years of naval history, and is one of the only dockyards in

:40:37. > :40:39.the world which does. But is it on a par with the Taj Mahal and the Great

:40:40. > :40:43.Wall of China? Medway Council thinks so. It is hoping the dockyard will

:40:44. > :40:46.be selected by the Government as a candidate to become a World Heritage

:40:47. > :40:49.Site. When the dockyard closed, the effects on the Medway towns were

:40:50. > :40:51.devastating. But could the World Heritage accolade

:40:52. > :40:56.effect? In a moment, we will hear from one expert who says it could

:40:57. > :40:59.hinder regeneration. But first, Bhavani Vadde went to Chatham to

:41:00. > :41:11.find out what difference such a title could make.

:41:12. > :41:14.Silent and imposing, these vessels are the physical legacy of

:41:15. > :41:19.Britain's dominance as a global naval power. For more than 400

:41:20. > :41:22.years, Chatham's dockyard played a vital role in supporting the Royal

:41:23. > :41:32.Navy and helping secure its supremacy at sea. It is now a

:41:33. > :41:35.tourist attraction and last week secured ?4.5 million of Heritage

:41:36. > :41:42.Lottery Fund inks for a project called Command Of The Oceans. It

:41:43. > :41:46.will tell the story of the military links and how it enabled trade and

:41:47. > :41:51.empire to flourish as well as play a role in the Industrial Revolution.

:41:52. > :41:54.But those with stewardship of Chatham's historic dockyard have

:41:55. > :41:58.greater ambitions for it. They want the dockyard and its defences to be

:41:59. > :42:04.listed as a UNESCO world Heritage site. But what benefits would that

:42:05. > :42:10.bring to the attraction and to Medway as a whole? The site already

:42:11. > :42:15.contributes ?60 million a year to Medway's economy and supports more

:42:16. > :42:19.than 500 jobs, according to an economic impact report completed

:42:20. > :42:23.last year. Many believe World Heritage Site status would achieve

:42:24. > :42:28.even more great. It is about economic regeneration and economic

:42:29. > :42:33.impact. More visitors, more tourists, it means more money spent

:42:34. > :42:39.in local shops and businesses. It is also about the sense of place that

:42:40. > :42:43.is driven to an area. People move to successful places, people move

:42:44. > :42:47.businesses to places that are recognised as being important. So

:42:48. > :42:52.there is a much wider potential benefit that comes from World

:42:53. > :42:56.Heritage Site status. It is the ultimate heritage tourism stamp of

:42:57. > :43:00.approval. In King of the doctor at a Chatham, Chatham in general, in the

:43:01. > :43:07.same context as the Taj Mahal and the Great Wall of China, it would

:43:08. > :43:13.set in stone in everybody's mind the significance and importance of the

:43:14. > :43:20.Heritage year. `` of the heritage here. There are 28 World Heritage

:43:21. > :43:23.Site around the country. Canterbury Cathedral along with two other

:43:24. > :43:27.churches in the city mark their 25th anniversary of receiving the award

:43:28. > :43:32.next week. The cathedral now receives more than 1 million

:43:33. > :43:36.visitors a year. This is a very important site. For us, the World

:43:37. > :43:40.Heritage Site is knit simply Canterbury Cathedral. It is Saint

:43:41. > :43:44.Martin's Church and Saint Augustin's Abbey. All three of us

:43:45. > :43:50.are part of the recognition that this is important in the life and

:43:51. > :43:52.history of this country, where the reintroduction of Christianity

:43:53. > :43:59.started. The concept is excellent. The fact that they have made a step

:44:00. > :44:04.for the recognition and therefore improving the preservation of these

:44:05. > :44:11.sites, which are important in world history, is very good. The proposed

:44:12. > :44:16.World Heritage Site at Chatham covers much more than the historic

:44:17. > :44:22.dockyard. The bid also includes the Heritage Park, part of the River

:44:23. > :44:26.Medway, and other fortifications. Medway Council started investigating

:44:27. > :44:33.the benefits of World Heritage Site status in 2002. So far, the council

:44:34. > :44:38.estimates the bid has cost ?380,000, although none of that has been from

:44:39. > :44:42.council funds. As a result, more than ?3 million has been invested in

:44:43. > :44:46.the Heritage Park and has led to free access for the public to Fort

:44:47. > :44:52.Amherst's heartland. There seems to be cross`party consensus at Medway

:44:53. > :44:55.Council on the benefits of World Heritage Site status, and the

:44:56. > :44:59.Conservative administration is confident even more investment will

:45:00. > :45:05.follow as a result of bidding for the accolade. Inward investment will

:45:06. > :45:09.come. We optimised very much in Medway is a place to come in terms

:45:10. > :45:14.of business. But this will increase it considerably. By looking at other

:45:15. > :45:22.areas that have this status within this country, they have been very

:45:23. > :45:26.clear how much benefit both in tourism, inward investment, and in

:45:27. > :45:32.the overall economy of their specific area. The government is

:45:33. > :45:36.likely to decide next year which sites should be nominated from the

:45:37. > :45:43.UK to UNESCO for World Heritage Site status. But is an international

:45:44. > :45:46.stamp of approval really necessary to appreciate the value of

:45:47. > :45:49.Chatham's naval heritage? I'm joined now by Paul Finch, a

:45:50. > :45:53.writer on architecture. Paul, you are not quite as enthusiastic as the

:45:54. > :45:56.people we heard from in the film about the idea of an attraction like

:45:57. > :46:03.Chatham Docks becoming a World Heritage Site. Why? In a general

:46:04. > :46:07.sense, good luck to Chatham. But on another level you have to say,

:46:08. > :46:11.actually, this whole process is rather sick making. Let's face it,

:46:12. > :46:16.what they are doing is giving awards to the obsolete. Chatham gets it

:46:17. > :46:20.because it does not make ships any more. I suppose they will give World

:46:21. > :46:23.Heritage data is to Portsmouth soon now that they are shutting down...

:46:24. > :46:29.You heard there be possible benefits. Visitor numbers alone.

:46:30. > :46:34.This area badly needs the money that this could bring. There is no harm

:46:35. > :46:38.in giving it the status, is there? It is a travel agent's ramp, and if

:46:39. > :46:44.you want everyone else in Britain to fund this, that is fine, but UNESCO

:46:45. > :46:50.does not give a single penny or your rope towards the protection... But

:46:51. > :46:53.it is accolade, the ultimate seal of approval. What exactly do you think

:46:54. > :46:57.the effect of becoming a World Heritage Site will have? I am

:46:58. > :47:01.worried about what has happened in Westminster. Because the Palace of

:47:02. > :47:06.Westminster, a 19th century building, not exactly the great

:47:07. > :47:09.Pyramids, has become a World Heritage Site, UNESCO and English

:47:10. > :47:13.Heritage, and Westminster Council, are telling councils on the other

:47:14. > :47:17.side of the river what buildings they can put up in case it

:47:18. > :47:20.interferes with the view from the World Heritage Site. I would be

:47:21. > :47:26.worried if I was Chatham to think it is not of views of the historic

:47:27. > :47:31.area, what happens if somebody wants to do a development next door and

:47:32. > :47:35.somebody says, oh, but this is interfering with a World Heritage

:47:36. > :47:39.Site, we should not do this? You have to be very, very careful about

:47:40. > :47:44.this. The dead hand of heritage at its worst means you cannot do

:47:45. > :47:49.anything new and it sets up a cultural assumption that anything

:47:50. > :47:53.new is in opposition to the past. This is very dangerous. So it is the

:47:54. > :47:57.interference that UNESCO would have in the local planning process?

:47:58. > :48:05.No`one have elected UNESCO. They are in receipt of global taxpayer money

:48:06. > :48:10.and go around telling people what to do. I am happy for Chatham council

:48:11. > :48:12.to do whatever it wants to do but none of the buildings are World

:48:13. > :48:16.Heritage Site because UNESCO says so. They have cultural value because

:48:17. > :48:20.of what they have been, and for UNESCO to say that nothing is a

:48:21. > :48:27.World Heritage Site lest they declare it to be so, there is a

:48:28. > :48:31.cultural arrogance. I will turn out to Paul Clark. You know the area

:48:32. > :48:37.well, the dockyards and their history. What Paul Finch is saying

:48:38. > :48:40.is interesting, this could backfire if you are not allowed to regenerate

:48:41. > :48:43.the area because of the rules that come with the UNESCO status which

:48:44. > :48:50.could stifle Chatham. Within the dockyard there are 47 scheduled

:48:51. > :48:54.monuments, you have hundred businesses, 500 jobs, and you have

:48:55. > :49:00.got development plans including housing. These have already happened

:49:01. > :49:04.within the confines of the dockyard with the heritage that it has. That

:49:05. > :49:09.heritage is not just looking back to the past. The Chatham dockyard is

:49:10. > :49:16.what makes the Medway Council what they are today. You need to keep

:49:17. > :49:22.that but interweave it, of course, with the 21st`century. But you could

:49:23. > :49:27.say it is already celebrating the heritage. What will this at apart

:49:28. > :49:33.from a bit of status? It does add. When we introduced the National

:49:34. > :49:37.museums programme a few years ago, which brought in models and so and

:49:38. > :49:44.from the National Maritime Museum and the Imperial War Museum, it

:49:45. > :49:47.increased visitor numbers by 25%. Clearly, UNESCO World Heritage Site

:49:48. > :49:55.status would give us that. It is not just the dockyard, it is including

:49:56. > :49:59.the great Lions and Fort Amherst. The whole of this process, the

:50:00. > :50:03.reason we got the ?4.5 million, is because of the journey that we have

:50:04. > :50:07.been on in developing this. You heard about Westminster, it is not

:50:08. > :50:12.about preserving the area but also the view from the area. You need to

:50:13. > :50:15.regenerate the Medway Council. If you cannot build new buildings

:50:16. > :50:20.because UNESCO says no, it would be frustrating. The former dockyard

:50:21. > :50:24.contains the commercial part of Chatham Maritime, it includes

:50:25. > :50:30.development of businesses that are there, it includes the universities

:50:31. > :50:37.of Medway, as well as the actual historical dockyard part. So it is

:50:38. > :50:41.already happening and it is not constraining to recognise the

:50:42. > :50:46.heritage that is their that is absolutely critical. Let's build on

:50:47. > :50:52.that to create jobs. I completely agree with the point that Paul just

:50:53. > :50:56.made. Paul Finch, who we just heard from, is right to tell us we do not

:50:57. > :51:00.need UNESCO to tell us that we are Maritime people, tied to the sea, it

:51:01. > :51:05.is part of our heritage without Paris decreeing it to be so. But

:51:06. > :51:12.this poll is right that there is no conflict between heritage and

:51:13. > :51:17.modernity. Somebody had come from anywhere else in the world when they

:51:18. > :51:20.were at their height in the dockyard, they would have been

:51:21. > :51:27.struck by what a modern people we were... You are a champion of

:51:28. > :51:34.localism. If you said to `` if UNESCO said, you cannot develop...

:51:35. > :51:38.That would not happen. What is coming out of the area now,

:51:39. > :51:42.cutting`edge, creative art, media. The world is not buying our ships

:51:43. > :51:46.any more, and it is sad. But what are they buying instead? They are

:51:47. > :51:52.buying Call The Midwife, Sherlock Holmes, of the things made in the

:51:53. > :51:59.area. There are probably more people employed in the area today than when

:52:00. > :52:06.it was run at the dockyard. Quite right to have political consensus

:52:07. > :52:09.here in the studio! There is consensus also on the council about

:52:10. > :52:14.this. Does it worry you that nobody is asking questions about this? The

:52:15. > :52:19.feasibility studies and so on that have been done look at what it

:52:20. > :52:23.means, what is required. I have to tell you the planning requirements

:52:24. > :52:28.are no different, as I understand, from those that have studied this,

:52:29. > :52:32.with a UNESCO badge of approval. It has the badge of approval but it

:52:33. > :52:36.does not add planning restrictions over and above what are already

:52:37. > :52:39.there. If you are going to value the heritage and develop it in a way

:52:40. > :52:46.that helps the 21st`century, then you will respect. Let's go back to

:52:47. > :52:50.Paul Finch. You heard a lot of opposition to what you are saying.

:52:51. > :52:53.If anyone thinks it does not make a difference, called Lambeth or

:52:54. > :52:57.Southwark council and they will tell you otherwise. This is a cultural

:52:58. > :53:01.imposition and the reason I object to it is it promotes the idea that

:53:02. > :53:06.culture is about the obsolete, and the idea that we should make video

:53:07. > :53:10.programmes in Chatham dockyard and therefore it is all hunky`dory and

:53:11. > :53:14.it is a World Heritage Site, it is totally laughable. It is not the Taj

:53:15. > :53:21.Mahal or the great Pyramids, it is a redundant dockyard. Come and have a

:53:22. > :53:25.look, Paul! It is not the Taj Mahal!

:53:26. > :53:29.All right, we are going to move on. Now, this is our last programme of

:53:30. > :53:33.the year, so we thought we would take the opportunity to take stock.

:53:34. > :53:36.It has been quite a year in the politics of the South East: the rise

:53:37. > :53:39.of UKIP as a serious force in opposition on the council in Kent

:53:40. > :53:43.and West Sussex, protests in Balcombe against fracking, and the

:53:44. > :53:47.first year of our police and crime commissioners. It has been busy. So,

:53:48. > :53:56.here is a little reminder of a few of the important bits of 2013.

:53:57. > :54:08.I will act with integrity and diligence in my role.

:54:09. > :54:15.I accept that I have made comments on social networking sites which

:54:16. > :54:22.have offended many people and I am truly sorry for any offence that has

:54:23. > :54:33.been caused. Our policies resonate with the man on the ground. I am not

:54:34. > :54:42.been nastier, but it is not working. We have two close the back door.

:54:43. > :54:49.I don't think the performance in local government is going to be a

:54:50. > :54:51.big factor in UKIP's performance in the general election. What will

:54:52. > :54:54.matter for them is whether they make the traditional the of selecting

:54:55. > :55:09.nutters who embarrass them. It is a huge privilege to be here in

:55:10. > :55:17.Margate today to welcome the opening of this extraordinary scheme. Build

:55:18. > :55:36.a bonfire, build a bonfire, but Cameron on the top!

:55:37. > :55:45.Fracking three Sussex! It is a national event, I believe, because

:55:46. > :55:47.it is about energy security for the country and I am sure this will not

:55:48. > :56:11.be a one`off. I did not come into politics to

:56:12. > :56:15.close Children's Centres but we have got to the point where we have got

:56:16. > :56:18.as much fat of the bonus we can. I don't think the councillors have

:56:19. > :56:22.been to a youth centre in their life and probably think we sit around and

:56:23. > :56:29.play table tennis all day. My message to them is, save our youth

:56:30. > :56:38.sessions. Do you know who that is? No, I don't. No, I don't. Do you

:56:39. > :56:41.know who this is? No, I don't. Out of all of those, which do you

:56:42. > :56:47.think will be the most significant next year? Let's take it as read

:56:48. > :56:50.that the Green Council in Brighton is going to lose as a result of

:56:51. > :56:58.that. I think the wake issue is fracking. I can tell you, hand on

:56:59. > :57:01.heart, as MEP for bulk, I have had more protests about the

:57:02. > :57:05.demonstrators than about any drilling. They were demonstrating in

:57:06. > :57:08.a place where no`one was fracking and no`one was proposing to sack,

:57:09. > :57:15.which tells you how skewed the has become. This is a potential boon to

:57:16. > :57:19.the UK. But we will see more protests next? Look at the flip

:57:20. > :57:24.side. People are complaining about the cost of energy, understandably.

:57:25. > :57:28.Cheaper energy is what has got the US economy moving again, factory

:57:29. > :57:32.prices coming down, exports becoming more competitive. This could be what

:57:33. > :57:39.call was to our ancestors. Out of all of those issues... ? I think

:57:40. > :57:42.energy is merely a major issue. Ed Miliband has been leading on that,

:57:43. > :57:48.which is why we have seen the U`turn by the government. I think it will

:57:49. > :57:56.be the continued problems with the families and constituents of

:57:57. > :58:00.cutbacks in services. The closures of children's services. This week

:58:01. > :58:05.72,000 lights are being switched off at midnight, raising questions about

:58:06. > :58:08.safety and security, while crime has gone up by 9%. Neither of you

:58:09. > :58:14.mentioned UKIP and we have got European elections next year.

:58:15. > :58:17.Anyway, time to have a look at the other political events that you

:58:18. > :58:27.might have missed this week with our political editor, Louise Stewart.

:58:28. > :58:31.The general election is 18 months away but campaigning seems to be

:58:32. > :58:34.underway. Ed Miliband started the week with a busy to Crawley to talk

:58:35. > :58:40.about apprenticeships. It happens to be one of Labour's key target seats.

:58:41. > :58:43.I will be here a lot right across the region. If there was any doubt

:58:44. > :58:47.about the position on fracking, George Osborne was clear in the

:58:48. > :58:51.Autumn Statement when he announced tax breaks for companies extracting

:58:52. > :58:56.shale gas, welcomed by the Sevenoaks MP Michael Fallon. We are getting

:58:57. > :59:00.serious about shale gas. Plans to build 10,000 new homes in the Sussex

:59:01. > :59:08.countryside work and dent in the Commons by Nicholas Soames. It is

:59:09. > :59:13.causing the greatest possible anxiety and concern amongst local

:59:14. > :59:17.people. Sports minister Helen Grant may want to brush up on her

:59:18. > :59:21.knowledge after being given a plain English kicking the pants award. She

:59:22. > :59:24.caught the attention of the panel a journalist asked her five sporting

:59:25. > :59:32.questions and she was unable to answer a single one.

:59:33. > :59:35.Paul Clark, you have been a minister, you must feel sorry for

:59:36. > :59:38.having grand? Getting caught out like that at the last minute is

:59:39. > :59:45.always a problem, always a hazard, but you need to brief up, and I was

:59:46. > :59:52.going to say man, but I mean just be there to take it and get on with it.

:59:53. > :59:54.Ministers are there to represent ordinary people rather than the

:59:55. > :59:55.professionals in their department, so I'm delighted...

:59:56. > :00:08.That's all we've got time for from Tomorrow, the House of Commons will

:00:09. > :00:22.pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest

:00:23. > :00:48.son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that

:00:49. > :00:49.involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against

:00:50. > :01:01.apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to

:01:02. > :01:10.South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put

:01:11. > :01:18.on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He

:01:19. > :01:23.also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the

:01:24. > :01:28.world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this

:01:29. > :01:38.reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who

:01:39. > :01:47.raised the standard of humanity. Thank you for the gift of Madiba.

:01:48. > :01:58.Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.

:01:59. > :02:07.We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not

:02:08. > :02:12.one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an

:02:13. > :02:17.election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I

:02:18. > :02:20.would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been

:02:21. > :02:26.the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary. He

:02:27. > :02:29.had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot

:02:30. > :02:35.of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without

:02:36. > :02:41.bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his

:02:42. > :02:45.achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that

:02:46. > :02:48.if you have black majority rule, you might have a bloodbath. It's down to

:02:49. > :02:54.Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that

:02:55. > :03:02.Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the

:03:03. > :03:08.key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about

:03:09. > :03:11.it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That

:03:12. > :03:16.anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics

:03:17. > :03:22.in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the

:03:23. > :03:26.time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in

:03:27. > :03:29.South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the

:03:30. > :03:35.anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political

:03:36. > :03:38.campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's

:03:39. > :03:43.assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people

:03:44. > :03:47.that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him

:03:48. > :03:52.come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you

:03:53. > :03:56.have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,

:03:57. > :04:05.picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was

:04:06. > :04:12.more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice

:04:13. > :04:15.Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's

:04:16. > :04:19.performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a

:04:20. > :04:23.brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best

:04:24. > :04:27.performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points

:04:28. > :04:33.he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I

:04:34. > :04:38.noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that

:04:39. > :04:41.under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for

:04:42. > :04:47.him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience

:04:48. > :04:50.first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not

:04:51. > :05:02.anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This

:05:03. > :05:06.is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can

:05:07. > :05:12.say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

:05:13. > :05:17.Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

:05:18. > :05:22.wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

:05:23. > :05:26.enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

:05:27. > :05:31.of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

:05:32. > :05:36.Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

:05:37. > :05:40.right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

:05:41. > :05:44.Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

:05:45. > :05:48.because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

:05:49. > :05:53.with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

:05:54. > :05:59.about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

:06:00. > :06:03.look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

:06:04. > :06:08.living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

:06:09. > :06:12.that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

:06:13. > :06:17.member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

:06:18. > :06:21.years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

:06:22. > :06:25.that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

:06:26. > :06:29.replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

:06:30. > :06:31.Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

:06:32. > :06:36.Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about

:06:37. > :06:41.shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too

:06:42. > :06:49.far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would

:06:50. > :06:56.want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I

:06:57. > :07:02.can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair

:07:03. > :07:06.Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put

:07:07. > :07:11.him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare

:07:12. > :07:14.secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to

:07:15. > :07:20.the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,

:07:21. > :07:26.or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which

:07:27. > :07:29.could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could

:07:30. > :07:32.feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,

:07:33. > :07:37.looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour

:07:38. > :07:41.strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view

:07:42. > :07:44.mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead

:07:45. > :07:51.through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre

:07:52. > :07:55.of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for

:07:56. > :08:00.him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison

:08:01. > :08:03.with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is

:08:04. > :08:07.between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between

:08:08. > :08:11.Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging

:08:12. > :08:16.reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of

:08:17. > :08:19.recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that

:08:20. > :08:26.punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?

:08:27. > :08:29.Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.

:08:30. > :08:32.We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in

:08:33. > :08:39.living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David

:08:40. > :08:42.Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal

:08:43. > :08:45.lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the

:08:46. > :08:50.composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we

:08:51. > :08:54.ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it

:08:55. > :08:57.smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.

:08:58. > :09:08.Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I

:09:09. > :09:15.say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of

:09:16. > :09:20.the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will

:09:21. > :09:26.there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,

:09:27. > :09:34.but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a

:09:35. > :09:40.third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What

:09:41. > :09:46.will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to

:09:47. > :09:52.2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went

:09:53. > :09:56.down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and

:09:57. > :10:03.claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it

:10:04. > :10:06.wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular

:10:07. > :10:13.growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is

:10:14. > :10:18.incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, because the housing market in London

:10:19. > :10:23.is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed

:10:24. > :10:36.Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,

:10:37. > :10:39.I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean

:10:40. > :10:49.have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour.

:10:50. > :10:53.Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence

:10:54. > :10:58.referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless

:10:59. > :11:07.they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to

:11:08. > :11:12.call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come

:11:13. > :11:20.to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population

:11:21. > :11:24.of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,

:11:25. > :11:30.I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,

:11:31. > :11:34.but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into

:11:35. > :11:39.figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think

:11:40. > :11:46.quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a

:11:47. > :11:53.huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to

:11:54. > :11:57.speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three

:11:58. > :12:04.of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend

:12:05. > :12:10.that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If

:12:11. > :12:19.you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you

:12:20. > :12:27.have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true

:12:28. > :12:31.talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you

:12:32. > :12:37.will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election

:12:38. > :12:43.next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this

:12:44. > :12:51.time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of

:12:52. > :12:56.the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage

:12:57. > :13:00.to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like

:13:01. > :13:04.there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it

:13:05. > :13:07.would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think

:13:08. > :13:11.that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick

:13:12. > :13:18.Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all

:13:19. > :13:20.of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the

:13:21. > :13:25.grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force

:13:26. > :13:29.that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.

:13:30. > :13:36.I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives

:13:37. > :13:42.you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the

:13:43. > :13:48.first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

:13:49. > :13:51.Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.