:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:45. > :00:46.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:47. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:57. > :00:59.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:00. > :01:09.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:10. > :01:13.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election and
:01:14. > :01:19.joined us for the Sunday interview. Coming up later: From the C`nterbury
:01:20. > :01:20.and Yalding to the Sussex coast communities across the region have
:01:21. > :01:21.felt the impact look at his decisions and priorities
:01:22. > :01:41.with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest
:01:42. > :01:43.political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and
:01:44. > :01:48.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development
:01:49. > :01:49.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the
:01:50. > :01:56.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel
:01:57. > :01:59.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that
:02:00. > :02:02.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union
:02:03. > :02:07.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28
:02:08. > :02:10.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if
:02:11. > :02:15.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out
:02:16. > :02:21.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very
:02:22. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by
:02:26. > :02:32.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the
:02:33. > :02:37.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your
:02:38. > :02:39.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely
:02:40. > :02:45.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have
:02:46. > :02:53.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that
:02:54. > :02:57.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is
:02:58. > :03:00.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be
:03:01. > :03:07.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't
:03:08. > :03:10.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive
:03:11. > :03:14.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex
:03:15. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to
:03:20. > :03:22.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with
:03:23. > :03:29.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last
:03:30. > :03:41.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically
:03:42. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that
:03:48. > :03:54.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get
:03:55. > :03:58.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more
:03:59. > :04:02.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is
:04:03. > :04:06.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active
:04:07. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other
:04:12. > :04:14.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no
:04:15. > :04:20.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by
:04:21. > :04:24.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:25. > :04:30.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have
:04:31. > :04:33.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite
:04:34. > :04:39.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know
:04:40. > :04:44.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried
:04:45. > :04:51.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care
:04:52. > :04:56.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.
:04:57. > :05:00.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the
:05:01. > :05:05.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the
:05:06. > :05:08.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would
:05:09. > :05:11.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that
:05:12. > :05:16.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls
:05:17. > :05:22.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for
:05:23. > :05:27.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of
:05:28. > :05:30.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in
:05:31. > :05:33.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a
:05:34. > :05:39.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both
:05:40. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already
:05:47. > :05:49.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is
:05:50. > :05:54.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,
:05:55. > :05:58.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the
:05:59. > :06:01.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was
:06:02. > :06:06.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A
:06:07. > :06:09.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last
:06:10. > :06:13.minute. The leader of the biggest
:06:14. > :06:18.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members
:06:19. > :06:23.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the
:06:24. > :06:27.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership
:06:28. > :06:30.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when
:06:31. > :06:35.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has
:06:36. > :06:40.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to
:06:41. > :06:43.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the
:06:44. > :06:48.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100
:06:49. > :06:52.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has
:06:53. > :06:57.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.
:06:58. > :07:05.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.
:07:06. > :07:12.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the
:07:13. > :07:17.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of
:07:18. > :07:20.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it
:07:21. > :07:24.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices
:07:25. > :07:28.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone
:07:29. > :07:30.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep
:07:31. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not
:07:38. > :07:40.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking
:07:41. > :07:43.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a
:07:44. > :07:47.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less
:07:48. > :07:53.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.
:07:54. > :07:59.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV
:08:00. > :08:03.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time
:08:04. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.
:08:08. > :08:11.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit
:08:12. > :08:14.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,
:08:15. > :08:20.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they
:08:21. > :08:26.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out
:08:27. > :08:29.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket
:08:30. > :08:34.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind
:08:35. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the
:08:39. > :08:43.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They
:08:44. > :08:49.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?
:08:50. > :08:52.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got
:08:53. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a
:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in
:08:59. > :09:02.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million
:09:03. > :09:06.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per
:09:07. > :09:10.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We
:09:11. > :09:14.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more
:09:15. > :09:19.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming
:09:20. > :09:21.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people
:09:22. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of
:09:30. > :09:33.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I
:09:34. > :09:40.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I
:09:41. > :09:44.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because
:09:45. > :09:50.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what
:09:51. > :09:53.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily
:09:54. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to
:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...
:10:03. > :10:05.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and
:10:06. > :10:09.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were
:10:10. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they
:10:14. > :10:16.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on
:10:17. > :10:20.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They
:10:21. > :10:26.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be
:10:27. > :10:31.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never
:10:32. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what
:10:36. > :10:39.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I
:10:40. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next
:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot
:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do
:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be
:10:59. > :11:02.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not
:11:03. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good
:11:07. > :11:10.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all
:11:11. > :11:15.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they
:11:16. > :11:18.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to
:11:19. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for
:11:23. > :11:24.your members and why union membership has been rising, people
:11:25. > :11:29.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost
:11:30. > :11:36.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone
:11:37. > :11:38.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are
:11:39. > :11:41.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on
:11:42. > :11:47.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at
:11:48. > :11:52.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The
:11:53. > :11:56.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary
:11:57. > :12:03.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a
:12:04. > :12:09.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had
:12:10. > :12:17.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members
:12:18. > :12:23.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by
:12:24. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the
:12:27. > :12:30.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the
:12:31. > :12:36.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up
:12:37. > :12:40.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are
:12:41. > :12:43.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all
:12:44. > :12:47.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars
:12:48. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members
:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if
:12:57. > :13:00.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who
:13:01. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of
:13:07. > :13:10.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling
:13:11. > :13:17.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It
:13:18. > :13:21.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us
:13:22. > :13:25.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's
:13:26. > :13:32.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having
:13:33. > :13:36.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is
:13:37. > :13:40.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said
:13:41. > :13:45.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in
:13:46. > :13:49.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth
:13:50. > :13:53.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting
:13:54. > :13:57.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy
:13:58. > :14:02.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?
:14:03. > :14:07.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx
:14:08. > :14:11.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and
:14:12. > :14:15.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of
:14:16. > :14:24.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out
:14:25. > :14:28.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they
:14:29. > :14:32.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so
:14:33. > :14:36.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and
:14:37. > :14:39.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the
:14:40. > :14:43.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute
:14:44. > :14:48.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing
:14:49. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless
:14:55. > :15:02.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this
:15:03. > :15:12.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming
:15:13. > :15:18.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it
:15:19. > :15:23.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it
:15:24. > :15:27.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be
:15:28. > :15:34.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who
:15:35. > :15:39.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality
:15:40. > :15:45.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a
:15:46. > :15:54.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless
:15:55. > :15:59.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small
:16:00. > :16:05.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me
:16:06. > :16:21.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over
:16:22. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created
:16:27. > :16:32.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many
:16:33. > :16:37.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the
:16:38. > :16:41.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and
:16:42. > :16:46.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better
:16:47. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the
:16:53. > :16:59.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single
:17:00. > :17:06.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes
:17:07. > :17:11.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long
:17:12. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.
:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is
:17:24. > :17:29.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people
:17:30. > :17:34.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use
:17:35. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the
:17:43. > :17:51.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I
:17:52. > :17:56.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.
:17:57. > :18:03.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is
:18:04. > :18:08.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being
:18:09. > :18:15.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that
:18:16. > :18:19.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out
:18:20. > :18:24.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the
:18:25. > :18:28.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London
:18:29. > :18:32.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices
:18:33. > :18:36.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially
:18:37. > :18:43.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the
:18:44. > :18:51.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed
:18:52. > :19:06.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal
:19:07. > :19:11.with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and
:19:12. > :19:17.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want
:19:18. > :19:25.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of
:19:26. > :19:34.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%
:19:35. > :19:39.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of
:19:40. > :19:44.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a
:19:45. > :19:49.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be
:19:50. > :19:55.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to
:19:56. > :20:01.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we
:20:02. > :20:07.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were
:20:08. > :20:13.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where
:20:14. > :20:18.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be
:20:19. > :20:23.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the
:20:24. > :20:30.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT
:20:31. > :20:35.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got
:20:36. > :20:44.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the
:20:45. > :20:53.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we
:20:54. > :20:58.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you
:20:59. > :21:07.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You
:21:08. > :21:15.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you
:21:16. > :21:22.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and
:21:23. > :21:27.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are
:21:28. > :21:33.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the
:21:34. > :21:39.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as
:21:40. > :21:46.badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the
:21:47. > :21:51.road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not
:21:52. > :21:57.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to
:21:58. > :22:04.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to
:22:05. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have
:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if
:22:22. > :22:28.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later
:22:29. > :22:33.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel
:22:34. > :22:39.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish
:22:40. > :22:45.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now
:22:46. > :22:52.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I
:22:53. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He
:23:01. > :23:06.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,
:23:07. > :23:12.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to
:23:13. > :23:15.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are
:23:16. > :23:20.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been
:23:21. > :23:26.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work
:23:27. > :23:30.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership
:23:31. > :23:36.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and
:23:37. > :23:48.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are
:23:49. > :23:51.talking about the president of the European commission and we have
:23:52. > :23:56.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,
:23:57. > :24:05.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that
:24:06. > :24:13.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they
:24:14. > :24:18.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it
:24:19. > :24:22.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state
:24:23. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish
:24:30. > :24:34.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if
:24:35. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an
:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.
:24:44. > :24:48.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no
:24:49. > :24:51.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union
:24:52. > :24:56.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the
:24:57. > :25:01.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union
:25:02. > :25:06.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation
:25:07. > :25:16.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that
:25:17. > :25:21.David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for
:25:22. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has
:25:29. > :25:31.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel
:25:32. > :25:39.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it
:25:40. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the
:25:46. > :25:48.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within
:25:49. > :25:57.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is
:25:58. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect
:26:02. > :26:08.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence
:26:09. > :26:14.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves
:26:15. > :26:20.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We
:26:21. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be
:26:30. > :26:36.to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's
:26:37. > :26:40.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for
:26:41. > :26:43.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent
:26:44. > :26:48.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or
:26:49. > :26:52.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our
:26:53. > :26:59.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests
:27:00. > :27:05.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.
:27:06. > :27:08.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of
:27:09. > :27:11.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of
:27:12. > :27:14.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on
:27:15. > :27:17.whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come
:27:18. > :27:20.second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the
:27:21. > :27:31.Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all
:27:32. > :27:41.meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a
:27:42. > :27:49.theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?
:27:50. > :27:52.To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard
:27:53. > :27:55.evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP
:27:56. > :28:05.doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.
:28:06. > :28:11.I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have
:28:12. > :28:13.come second and increased their share of the vote quite
:28:14. > :28:16.significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances
:28:17. > :28:19.in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest
:28:20. > :28:30.to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd
:28:31. > :28:39.told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I
:28:40. > :28:43.wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour
:28:44. > :28:50.stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were
:28:51. > :28:54.running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in
:28:55. > :28:57.Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets
:28:58. > :29:00.that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about
:29:01. > :29:04.the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help
:29:05. > :29:09.them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.
:29:10. > :29:15.Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they
:29:16. > :29:18.could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP
:29:19. > :29:29.voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about
:29:30. > :29:36.the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy
:29:37. > :29:42.faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many
:29:43. > :29:46.UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do
:29:47. > :29:51.pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters
:29:52. > :29:57.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban
:29:58. > :30:00.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And
:30:01. > :30:04.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if
:30:05. > :30:17.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just
:30:18. > :30:20.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP
:30:21. > :30:24.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they
:30:25. > :30:27.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the
:30:28. > :30:33.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their
:30:34. > :30:39.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will
:30:40. > :30:42.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the
:30:43. > :30:47.Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may
:30:48. > :30:55.have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over
:30:56. > :31:03.at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had
:31:04. > :31:07.major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a
:31:08. > :31:11.kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious
:31:12. > :31:16.as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good
:31:17. > :31:20.job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which
:31:21. > :31:26.will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if
:31:27. > :31:31.it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP
:31:32. > :31:35.Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He
:31:36. > :31:37.will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You
:31:38. > :31:44.came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky
:31:45. > :31:50.Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very
:31:51. > :31:54.unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to
:31:55. > :32:04.actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back
:32:05. > :32:09.to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular
:32:10. > :32:13.government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour
:32:14. > :32:16.compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out
:32:17. > :32:20.the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an
:32:21. > :32:26.efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people
:32:27. > :32:30.with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the
:32:31. > :32:34.increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in
:32:35. > :32:38.the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think
:32:39. > :32:44.by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour
:32:45. > :32:49.in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should
:32:50. > :32:53.discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look
:32:54. > :32:57.forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we
:32:58. > :33:04.have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change
:33:05. > :33:08.that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the
:33:09. > :33:13.north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are
:33:14. > :33:17.drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and
:33:18. > :33:21.they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want
:33:22. > :33:25.change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and
:33:26. > :33:31.they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have
:33:32. > :33:35.seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to
:33:36. > :33:39.get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the
:33:40. > :33:48.renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's
:33:49. > :33:53.get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in
:33:54. > :33:58.22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what
:33:59. > :34:01.motivates you, and with UKIP it is, the only way it will be a referendum
:34:02. > :34:05.on Europe in this country as if there is a majority Conservative
:34:06. > :34:09.government at the next election And you could well stop that from
:34:10. > :34:13.happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David
:34:14. > :34:17.Cameron and into a referendum pledge he explicitly ruled out making
:34:18. > :34:20.before through our success, and I was there in PMQs, when his MPs
:34:21. > :34:24.asked him and he said it would not be in the national interest because
:34:25. > :34:28.he didn't want to leave, our electoral success forced that
:34:29. > :34:31.pledge. I believe by winning the European action this May we can
:34:32. > :34:35.force Ed Miliband, again, against his will, to match that pledge.
:34:36. > :34:42.Then, whatever formulation varies in the next Parliament, we will get a
:34:43. > :34:46.referendum. Labour MPs have just had the chance to say we want a
:34:47. > :34:51.referendum. They refused to do it. The only way you are going to get a
:34:52. > :34:55.renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in
:34:56. > :34:58.or out referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please
:34:59. > :35:04.UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver
:35:05. > :35:08.and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a
:35:09. > :35:13.pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you
:35:14. > :35:17.are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into
:35:18. > :35:23.the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still
:35:24. > :35:27.loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing
:35:28. > :35:33.David Cameron, and I asked him directly, thermally wants to stay
:35:34. > :35:38.in. He wants to be the Edward Heath of the 21st century. The Tories are
:35:39. > :35:43.going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What would you say to
:35:44. > :35:46.that? I would say we have probably maxed out the Tory vote we are going
:35:47. > :35:50.to get because David Cameron has been incredibly helpful in sending
:35:51. > :35:57.them in our direction. Our potential for growth now, would we are
:35:58. > :36:01.concentrating on, his those disenchanted former Labour voters
:36:02. > :36:06.and more and more of them are coming towards us on things like
:36:07. > :36:10.immigration and law and order. We want to renegotiate our relationship
:36:11. > :36:12.with Europe. We need to have people who are going to turn up to
:36:13. > :36:17.negotiate with people like Barroso. That meant a Prime Minister that is
:36:18. > :36:27.not Ed Miliband but David Cameron. UKIP MEPs do not turn up to
:36:28. > :36:31.defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there
:36:32. > :36:35.will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty
:36:36. > :36:42.change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do
:36:43. > :36:46.then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to
:36:47. > :36:54.agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these
:36:55. > :37:01.negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has
:37:02. > :37:04.been very clear that British public opinion is on a knife edge and
:37:05. > :37:09.unless we get what we want from a renegotiation, we will leave. You
:37:10. > :37:14.would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in
:37:15. > :37:19.2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.
:37:20. > :37:25.But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers
:37:26. > :37:28.lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of
:37:29. > :37:32.Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up
:37:33. > :37:34.in just over 20 minutes, I will be talking about, what else, the
:37:35. > :38:02.weather, with our political This is the Sunday Politics in the
:38:03. > :38:05.South East. Coming up later: They come for a good time, `nd fuel
:38:06. > :38:09.the local economy, so what does Brighton and Hove City Council hope
:38:10. > :38:12.to achieve by turning its attention to the party`houses where the hens
:38:13. > :38:15.and stags stay? We have a wdalth of journalistic experience in our
:38:16. > :38:18.studio today. Joining us ard two reporters who are very familiar with
:38:19. > :38:22.their respective patch in the south east. Tim Ridgway is Head of News
:38:23. > :38:25.for Brighton's Latest TV Colpany, which will start broadcasting later
:38:26. > :38:28.this year. He is also a coltmnist for the Argus where he was the
:38:29. > :38:31.political correspondent for several years. And Paul Francis is the
:38:32. > :38:34.Political Correspondent for Kent Online and writes for the Kdnt
:38:35. > :38:37.Messenger. Welcome to you both. Before we move on to our mahn
:38:38. > :38:40.discussions, there really is just one issue that's dominated this
:38:41. > :38:43.week, the weather. From the Canterbury and Yalding to the Sussex
:38:44. > :38:46.coast, communities across the region have felt the impact of the wettest
:38:47. > :38:50.winter in living memory. But when the waters recede, will we have a
:38:51. > :38:53.different approach to where we build new homes? Concern has been
:38:54. > :38:57.expressed by some ` including the Sussex MP Nick Herbert ` th`t too
:38:58. > :38:59.many homes are being built on flood plains. When asked whether
:39:00. > :39:08.inappropriate development h`d made flooding worse, here's what Eric
:39:09. > :39:12.Pickles had to say. I did look very carefully at the
:39:13. > :39:16.figures with regard to the building weather was an acute risk of
:39:17. > :39:34.flooding. I'm delighted to tell you that the amount of buildings on at
:39:35. > :39:37.risk areas is at an all`timd low. I am also pleased to say that further
:39:38. > :39:41.been objections from the environmental agency they h`ve been
:39:42. > :39:46.adhered to in 99.3% of occasions. Is Eric Pickles right? He had ` good
:39:47. > :39:50.word to say about the Environment Agency which is interesting. The
:39:51. > :39:52.problem has always been in the South East region the tension between
:39:53. > :39:56.protecting countryside and building the right number of affordable homes
:39:57. > :39:59.in order to have people herd who can fuel the South East economy. The
:40:00. > :40:07.Conservatives are very keen on protecting the countryside. Their
:40:08. > :40:28.politicians are in control of rural shires. They are arguing th`t the
:40:29. > :40:31.new planning and policy fralework means houses are being built in a
:40:32. > :40:34.sustainable way, but the top`down targets from government are putting
:40:35. > :40:37.pressure on local councils. The reason the government introduced a
:40:38. > :40:41.new planning framework was to get rid of the top`down targets and to
:40:42. > :40:44.see to local communities, you know best, you can set the target and
:40:45. > :40:48.we'll do our best. Where we don t agree, we will try to see some
:40:49. > :40:51.middle ground. The wider issue of flooding generally, I think people
:40:52. > :40:56.are probably expecting too luch from the government. They say thd
:40:57. > :40:59.government should be doing this and dredging rivers and stopping the
:41:00. > :41:03.planning process, but the government only has a minimal amount of money
:41:04. > :41:06.and they cannot control the weather. The public to realise that. In terms
:41:07. > :41:11.of local planning decisions, where is the pressure coming from? Do you
:41:12. > :41:15.think the developers have some power when it comes to what gets the
:41:16. > :41:22.go`ahead? The government is saying that councils can decide wh`t is
:41:23. > :41:28.appropriate. They have taken that on board. At the same time, thdy are
:41:29. > :41:33.aiming to safeguard the envhronment and protect the countryside. We all
:41:34. > :41:42.know that housing is in desperate shortage. We have this tenshon in
:41:43. > :41:48.the region. The need for hotses and the fierce need to protect the
:41:49. > :41:55.environment. What do you thhnk will change as a result of the floods? I
:41:56. > :41:59.think there will be a flash in the pan and in a couple of months' time
:42:00. > :42:07.people will forget about it and move onto the next thing. Housing is a
:42:08. > :42:11.key issue. In Brighton and Hove the council have taken a stance and said
:42:12. > :42:16.they need to find linking toes and homes. If they cannot find that
:42:17. > :42:23.number, they will settle for 11 500. I think other councils will need to
:42:24. > :42:31.come to a compromise. There is talk of secret plans for a garden city in
:42:32. > :42:41.our region. Do you think anxthing will change? Councils will have to
:42:42. > :42:44.take on board more seriouslx the issues around the impact of
:42:45. > :42:48.potential flooding when it comes to decisions about housing devdlopment.
:42:49. > :43:08.The idea of a garden city is frankly preposterous. I think there will
:43:09. > :43:12.always be this tension betwden those who want to see more houses because
:43:13. > :43:16.they are aware that if you have a growing economy you need solewhere
:43:17. > :43:19.for people to live, and I think that will still be the main issud.
:43:20. > :43:23.It is becoming as tradition`l as cutting the cake or throwing the
:43:24. > :43:26.bouquet ` the hen and stag do. And it's big business in Brighton and
:43:27. > :43:30.Hove with many groups staying in rented accommodation known `s party
:43:31. > :43:33.houses. But they are getting a bad reputation in the city. Somd
:43:34. > :43:35.residents blame them for nohse and anti`social behaviour. For their
:43:36. > :43:39.part, the rental companies running the properties point to the hard
:43:40. > :43:43.work they put in to ensuring there is no disruption. Now the council is
:43:44. > :43:49.looking at the issue too, as has our reporter.
:43:50. > :43:52.Hen and stag parties are big business for Brighton, which
:43:53. > :43:55.attracts eight million people a year and is one of the UK 's top
:43:56. > :43:57.destinations for a prenupti`l knees`up with companies offdring
:43:58. > :44:02.tailor`made weekend breaks. They arrange accommodation, often in the
:44:03. > :44:06.so`called party houses. How many houses are like this in the city is
:44:07. > :44:18.a disputed figure, but it is certainly over 100. People would
:44:19. > :44:22.arrive, Thursday lunchtime, unpack their beer and barbecues and it
:44:23. > :44:31.would start. Then we had thd naked butlers. And the women getthng
:44:32. > :44:35.noisier and noisier. This woman lived next door to one last summer.
:44:36. > :44:38.The property has now been sold and is privately owned. It is a
:44:39. > :44:45.four`bedroom house and was advertised as sleeping 18. We had
:44:46. > :44:49.incidents of people coming home late at night drunk and not able to find
:44:50. > :44:53.their keys. Trying to climb over fences. Although it was nothing to
:44:54. > :44:58.do with us, we could not get to sleep until we knew they were safe.
:44:59. > :45:15.It was a dreadful nuisance `ll last summer. With concerns about noise,
:45:16. > :45:18.anti`social behaviour and the regulation of the industry hn
:45:19. > :45:22.general, Brighton and Hove Council launched a scrutiny panel to look at
:45:23. > :45:31.the issue. They have many experts on the group. They aim to agred a
:45:32. > :45:33.framework of best practice for the industry. Businesses organising
:45:34. > :45:41.these weekends so they have already been successfully self`regulating
:45:42. > :45:47.for years. This company brings in up to 600 hen and stag is each week
:45:48. > :45:53.into Brighton. The owner fedls the industry is being demonised. I think
:45:54. > :46:00.it is an easy target. It is the same picture that appears in the local
:46:01. > :46:04.papers every time this is mdntioned. The same complaints are mooted time
:46:05. > :46:10.and time and time again. I think we have been the gold standard for the
:46:11. > :46:18.last five years. We did not have to wait for a scrutiny panel to get
:46:19. > :46:23.this together. Property man`gement companies already meet regularly and
:46:24. > :46:26.have formed an association. They say many of the houses are soundproofed
:46:27. > :46:34.and most companies have sectrity or a noise patrol. I look after the
:46:35. > :46:37.noise patrol during the weekend evenings, usually from 9pm tntil
:46:38. > :46:42.6am. We have a telephone nulber that residents can call should they have
:46:43. > :46:51.a problem. We probably get one or two calls in a month. Probably 0%
:46:52. > :47:07.of those are noise complaints which are nothing to do with our
:47:08. > :47:16.properties. 13% of the city 's economy comes from tourism. 330
:47:17. > :47:19.million a year comes in and supports 7,000 jobs. It is a profitable
:47:20. > :47:23.industry. All of that money is spent in Brighton. Businesses will pay
:47:24. > :47:30.staff and it is great for the local economy. Unlike many British seaside
:47:31. > :47:33.resorts, Brighton has a strong year`round economy which is growing
:47:34. > :47:36.with big spending weekend vhsitors. The question is, can the city
:47:37. > :47:46.currently afford to be pickx about who brings in the cash?
:47:47. > :47:49.I'm joined now by Councillor Geoffrey Bowden, the chair of the
:47:50. > :47:52.Scrutiny Panel on Brighton `nd Hove City Council that is currently
:47:53. > :48:01.looking at the whole issue of these so`called party houses. How much of
:48:02. > :48:16.a problem are party houses? Do they really merit a scrutiny pandl? I
:48:17. > :48:21.wonder how much of a problel they really are. Do we really merit a
:48:22. > :48:25.council scrutiny panel? This was prompted by a number of complaints
:48:26. > :48:28.at local level. Some people say that we don't get noise complaints from
:48:29. > :48:31.the council, but we only have two environment officers covering the
:48:32. > :48:34.whole of the city working from 0pm until 3am on Friday night and
:48:35. > :48:38.Saturday night. They have the whole of the city to cover. Some of the
:48:39. > :48:42.evidence we heard from the first sitting of the panel from those who
:48:43. > :48:44.live next water party houses said they don't bother worrying the
:48:45. > :48:49.environmental health officers or phone the police. These things never
:48:50. > :48:54.come up on the radar of the agents or the owners. People have given up.
:48:55. > :48:57.We had evidence yesterday from someone who came to the scrttiny
:48:58. > :49:07.panel who kept two years of noise diaries. A noise diary, when you're
:49:08. > :49:12.being disturbed at 3am in the morning... Lots of residents in your
:49:13. > :49:16.very busy and popular city has to put up with a lot of noise, not
:49:17. > :49:28.least from the student population. There are 100 of these housds. I
:49:29. > :49:32.know they are a problem in the Kent Town area, but are we talking about
:49:33. > :49:35.a few middle`class voters who are complaining to you and does it
:49:36. > :49:39.really merit this kind of attention? Are you demonising them? I was quite
:49:40. > :49:42.surprised. When I put in a request to have a look at this to the
:49:43. > :49:45.scrutiny panel and I copied all local councillors, I was intndated
:49:46. > :49:56.with messages from councillors across the city. It's not jtst my
:49:57. > :50:00.ward. We heard evidence frol the lady you spoke to who was rdferring
:50:01. > :50:05.to a party house in leafy Roedeen. A chap sport was yesterday and has
:50:06. > :50:12.four in his cul`de`sac. Thex are all over the place. The people who own
:50:13. > :50:18.and manage these properties sound very responsible. They employ people
:50:19. > :50:22.to monitor the noise. Of all the complaints they get, they s`id only
:50:23. > :50:29.a fraction turn out to be bdcause of the party houses. This feelhng they
:50:30. > :50:32.are being demonised, there hs a wider problem here of anti`social
:50:33. > :50:36.Behaviour, and the party hotses are being demonised. The neighbours of
:50:37. > :50:41.these houses would dispute that We don't want to demonise anyone.
:50:42. > :50:44.There's no doubt that well operated properties that are not just
:50:45. > :50:48.catering for him and stagnates, the short`term let market is a very
:50:49. > :51:03.valuable asset in the portfolio for Brighton and Hove. 8% of all visitor
:51:04. > :51:10.market use these types of properties. It's not in the
:51:11. > :51:13.interests for them to be run poorly. This is your dilemma. You c`n't
:51:14. > :51:17.afford to shut out that verx important stream of income. We don't
:51:18. > :51:25.want to. What do you think xou can do as an authority to changd the
:51:26. > :51:35.situation? We are shining a torch on this. Undoubtedly, there ard some
:51:36. > :51:37.really first`rate operators. It was described yesterday as a grdy
:51:38. > :51:41.tourist economy. You were t`lking about the housing crisis. These are
:51:42. > :51:48.family homes that are turned over into moneymaking entities. Nothing
:51:49. > :52:00.wrong with that at all, but there has to be some kind of regulation.
:52:01. > :52:03.We had a legal officer talk to us yesterday who gave a person`l
:52:04. > :52:06.opinion that the sort of regulation that houses of multiple occtpancy
:52:07. > :52:10.use, that might be a model for looking at these. I was sitting next
:52:11. > :52:13.to the fire officer from East Sussex Fire and rescue service who has been
:52:14. > :52:17.working with agents for two years, looking at this. They have closed
:52:18. > :52:28.down some operations which were frankly unsafe. We will get to a way
:52:29. > :52:31.where hopefully those peopld from your package to talk about the way
:52:32. > :52:43.they run things, that will become the model for everyone. Thank you.
:52:44. > :52:47.How much of a problem do yot think the party houses are? I think there
:52:48. > :52:50.are issues. There is a general issue about people forgetting where they
:52:51. > :52:56.live. You live in cities and there is bound to be noise. There is bound
:52:57. > :53:03.to be late`night disturbancds. That is one of the negatives of living in
:53:04. > :53:07.a city like Brighton. I think this will go in peaks and troughs. Stag
:53:08. > :53:15.and hen parties were big business in the 1980s and 90s. Perhaps we are
:53:16. > :53:20.coming on the back up again after the downturn. Hopefully the council
:53:21. > :53:25.will come up with some senshble suggestions to sort this out. This
:53:26. > :53:32.is big business. But they nded to keep residents happy. Do yot think
:53:33. > :53:36.there is anything that councils can do in this situation? The scrutiny
:53:37. > :53:39.panel will come up with all sorts of frameworks, but probably wh`t they
:53:40. > :53:42.need is more environmental officers. The key recommendation this panel
:53:43. > :53:53.will make will be that you need more people to monitor the noise. These
:53:54. > :54:06.guys come into the city for a weekend and go. It is unlikdly there
:54:07. > :54:10.going to have effective control of the situation. It is diffictlt to
:54:11. > :54:16.see what they can do against landlords or these companies. They
:54:17. > :54:20.might want to look at powers that be have against those who organise
:54:21. > :54:24.these events. Once, a council budget meethng might
:54:25. > :54:34.elicit a few headlines and ` piece or two by local hacks like Paul and
:54:35. > :54:37.Tim. But increasingly, with budgets squeezed and hard decisions about
:54:38. > :54:40.which services to cut or kedp, they are now the source of huge debate
:54:41. > :54:43.for councillors and voters `like. This week, many of our councils
:54:44. > :54:47.across the South East finalhsed their budgets. Some, like Kdnt,
:54:48. > :54:49.Surrey and East Sussex agredd an increase in council tax. With two
:54:50. > :54:53.guests who are extremely faliliar with the inside of a council
:54:54. > :54:56.chamber, let's chew over thd highs and lows. Tim, you've coverdd
:54:57. > :54:59.Brighton for five years. Patl, you've covered local politics since
:55:00. > :55:05.the 1990s. How many council meetings do you think you have attended in
:55:06. > :55:16.your time? A fair few memor`ble ones and some many unmemorable ones. I
:55:17. > :55:21.have not kept a tally. I have probably nodded off a few thmes
:55:22. > :55:29.They are not always the most riveting occasions? Local ddmocracy
:55:30. > :55:36.has its moments. There was `nother spectacular meeting in Brighton and
:55:37. > :55:41.Hove. This week, the Greens suffered a defeat for their plans to increase
:55:42. > :55:45.council tax by 5%. It has ldft Labour in a difficult posithon. He
:55:46. > :55:57.have ended up voting in favour of austerity. Brighton and Hovd is a
:55:58. > :56:01.unique situation. Labour have a large say in the way decisions are
:56:02. > :56:09.made. When it comes to setthng the budget, the Greens want a 5$
:56:10. > :56:15.increase in council tax, thd Tories who want a freeze and labour who
:56:16. > :56:36.want to percent. Politicians are quite stubborn. The plans for the
:56:37. > :56:40.rise from the Greens was 40 down by Labour and the Conservatives.
:56:41. > :56:45.Chances are that a referendtm is unlikely. By doing that, thd Greens
:56:46. > :56:51.have done very well politic`lly out of it has the have said two people,
:56:52. > :56:58.we are fed up by austerity `nd we are going to try to take evdry
:56:59. > :57:06.measure we can to challenge it. Many councils in our region are going for
:57:07. > :57:15.a rise. Is this two fingers to Eric Pickles? I think this is a realistic
:57:16. > :57:24.and pragmatic decision. Thex have been squeezed so much over the last
:57:25. > :57:33.few years. The earnout `` they are now at a point where a council tax
:57:34. > :57:39.rise is needed. If they are playing a political game, it is quite a
:57:40. > :57:46.reckless scheme. The increases we are seeing are genuinely motivated.
:57:47. > :57:53.Residents who have had a frdeze for three years don't like the hdea of
:57:54. > :57:56.paying more for council tax. You have said Brighton and Hove will
:57:57. > :57:59.always be a little different to other councils, but does it make the
:58:00. > :58:05.meeting is more interesting than the have been in recent years?
:58:06. > :58:11.Fascinating. The way the budget is set, it is almost like a gale of
:58:12. > :58:17.chess. There is a lot of room to manoeuvre. It is fascinating to
:58:18. > :58:26.cover from the benches. Our newspaper have done lots to get the
:58:27. > :58:42.public involves. Are people getting more interested in council leetings?
:58:43. > :58:46.Social media has helped as well I think there will always be ` sense
:58:47. > :58:49.of antipathy, but there are some signs that people are getting more
:58:50. > :58:52.engaged with it. And now it's time for some of the
:58:53. > :59:01.other political stories you might have missed this week with James
:59:02. > :59:05.Fitzgerald. Henry Smith expressed concern about
:59:06. > :59:08.home`grown extremism after ht was claimed a British man suspected of a
:59:09. > :59:15.suicide bombing in Syria was from Crawley. The UK Government `re right
:59:16. > :59:25.to seek to prohibit all but official travel to Syria. 12 permanent
:59:26. > :59:30.pitches will be set up in the South Downs National Park. A 15 foot
:59:31. > :59:40.sinkhole opened up on the M2. Highways Agency spent much of the
:59:41. > :59:43.week investigating. Carolind Lucas slot assurance that the Prile
:59:44. > :59:47.Minister would heed the warnings of the Met office and his advisers who
:59:48. > :59:55.warned that I'm an change whll lead to more such events in the future.
:59:56. > :59:58.David Cameron dodged a question about removing people from his
:59:59. > :00:02.cabinet who did not believe in climate change. We need to do
:00:03. > :00:13.everything we can to improvd the resilience of our country.
:00:14. > :00:20.That was the ultimate pothole! It was almost a metaphor for the black
:00:21. > :00:36.hole in council budgets. Thdre is something fascinating about a
:00:37. > :00:40.recall. `` about a big hole. All our councils
:00:41. > :00:48.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,
:00:49. > :00:51.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking
:00:52. > :00:55.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been
:00:56. > :00:58.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few
:00:59. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,
:01:04. > :01:09.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.
:01:10. > :01:14.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the
:01:15. > :01:23.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line
:01:24. > :01:28.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was
:01:29. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.
:01:34. > :01:38.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to
:01:39. > :01:42.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very
:01:43. > :01:45.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband
:01:46. > :01:49.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government
:01:50. > :01:52.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual
:01:53. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate
:01:58. > :02:01.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't
:02:02. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly
:02:07. > :02:09.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The
:02:10. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm
:02:15. > :02:18.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not
:02:19. > :02:22.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts
:02:23. > :02:27.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those
:02:28. > :02:32.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he
:02:33. > :02:36.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate
:02:37. > :02:41.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in
:02:42. > :02:45.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and
:02:46. > :02:49.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything
:02:50. > :02:53.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,
:02:54. > :02:58.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government
:02:59. > :03:01.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by
:03:02. > :03:06.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to
:03:07. > :03:16.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.
:03:17. > :03:20.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down
:03:21. > :03:24.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,
:03:25. > :03:28.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than
:03:29. > :03:31.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed
:03:32. > :03:35.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there
:03:36. > :03:41.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems
:03:42. > :03:44.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further
:03:45. > :03:48.south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our
:03:49. > :03:54.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's
:03:55. > :03:59.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science
:04:00. > :04:01.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate
:04:02. > :04:06.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had
:04:07. > :04:13.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in
:04:14. > :04:15.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual
:04:16. > :04:20.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour
:04:21. > :04:24.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a
:04:25. > :04:28.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather
:04:29. > :04:31.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,
:04:32. > :04:37.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest
:04:38. > :04:43.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that
:04:44. > :04:49.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is
:04:50. > :04:52.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that
:04:53. > :04:57.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,
:04:58. > :05:03.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the
:05:04. > :05:08.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come
:05:09. > :05:13.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we
:05:14. > :05:15.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick
:05:16. > :05:21.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.
:05:22. > :05:25.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise
:05:26. > :05:31.reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making
:05:32. > :05:34.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour
:05:35. > :05:39.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP
:05:40. > :05:42.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of
:05:43. > :05:46.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their
:05:47. > :05:52.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly
:05:53. > :05:56.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to
:05:57. > :06:01.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for
:06:02. > :06:06.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a
:06:07. > :06:10.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a
:06:11. > :06:15.commentator rather than head of communications for a political
:06:16. > :06:21.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome
:06:22. > :06:24.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop
:06:25. > :06:31.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic
:06:32. > :06:37.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be
:06:38. > :06:42.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no
:06:43. > :06:50.longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is
:06:51. > :06:54.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,
:06:55. > :06:58.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get
:06:59. > :07:03.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two
:07:04. > :07:08.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see
:07:09. > :07:11.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there
:07:12. > :07:15.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been
:07:16. > :07:19.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country
:07:20. > :07:28.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding
:07:29. > :07:33.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the
:07:34. > :07:38.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory
:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?
:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not
:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think
:07:54. > :07:57.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a
:07:58. > :08:01.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had
:08:02. > :08:04.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,
:08:05. > :08:08.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of
:08:09. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when
:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,
:08:17. > :08:20.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties
:08:21. > :08:26.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made
:08:27. > :08:28.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a
:08:29. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about
:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is
:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them
:08:43. > :08:45.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You
:08:46. > :08:50.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But
:08:51. > :08:55.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate
:08:56. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories
:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact
:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the
:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.
:09:13. > :09:16.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't
:09:17. > :09:20.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of
:09:21. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think
:09:25. > :09:28.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than
:09:29. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!
:09:33. > :09:39.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I
:09:40. > :09:45.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of
:09:46. > :09:53.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,
:09:54. > :09:57.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an
:09:58. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up
:10:03. > :10:06.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden
:10:07. > :10:10.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is
:10:11. > :10:15.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his
:10:16. > :10:18.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and
:10:19. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.
:10:25. > :10:31.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot
:10:32. > :10:35.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women
:10:36. > :10:40.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.
:10:41. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less
:10:45. > :10:50.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives
:10:51. > :10:56.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential
:10:57. > :11:00.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the
:11:01. > :11:03.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they
:11:04. > :11:08.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the
:11:09. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just
:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour
:11:19. > :11:22.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told
:11:23. > :11:28.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It
:11:29. > :11:33.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of
:11:34. > :11:38.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the
:11:39. > :11:42.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,
:11:43. > :11:46.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female
:11:47. > :11:52.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is
:11:53. > :11:59.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?
:12:00. > :12:02.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a
:12:03. > :12:08.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.
:12:09. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As
:12:15. > :12:18.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very
:12:19. > :12:21.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in
:12:22. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change
:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they
:12:40. > :12:45.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense
:12:46. > :12:51.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will
:12:52. > :12:54.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see
:12:55. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going
:13:05. > :13:07.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour
:13:08. > :13:12.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think
:13:13. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I
:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?
:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her
:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week
:13:38. > :13:42.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is
:13:43. > :13:44.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.