:00:37. > :00:44.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth
:00:45. > :00:47.Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for
:00:48. > :00:49.middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our
:00:50. > :00:54.top story. Ed Balls says millions of people
:00:55. > :00:56.aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy
:00:57. > :01:04.with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the
:01:05. > :01:07.Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU
:01:08. > :01:08.referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP
:01:09. > :01:18.In the south`east, Labour h`s a means no chance
:01:19. > :01:22.In the south`east, Labour h`s a political mountain to climb with no
:01:23. > :01:22.MPs in the region. As the p`rty gathers in
:01:23. > :01:25.of cycling. The three areas of London getting a cash boost to try
:01:26. > :01:36.something different. And with me as always our top
:01:37. > :01:39.political panel - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be
:01:40. > :01:43.tweeting their thoughts using the hashtag #bbcsp throughout the
:01:44. > :01:46.programme. So, just three months after his last major financial
:01:47. > :01:52.statement, George Osborne will be at the despatch box again on Wednesday,
:01:53. > :01:54.delivering his 2014 Budget. The Chancellor has already previewed his
:01:55. > :02:05.own speech, pledging to build what he calls a "resilient economy". The
:02:06. > :02:09.message I will give in the Budget is the economic plan is working but the
:02:10. > :02:12.job is far from done. We need to build resilient economy which means
:02:13. > :02:16.addressing the long-term weaknesses in Britain that we don't export
:02:17. > :02:20.enough, invest enough, build enough, make enough. Those are the things I
:02:21. > :02:24.will address because we want Britain to earn its way in the world. George
:02:25. > :02:27.Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls, has also been talking ahead of the
:02:28. > :02:30.Budget. He says not everyone is feeling the benefit of the economic
:02:31. > :02:36.recovery, and again attacked the Government's decision to reduce the
:02:37. > :02:40.top rate of tax from 50 to 45%. George Osborne is only ever tough
:02:41. > :02:43.when he's having a go at the week and the voiceless. Labour is willing
:02:44. > :02:47.to face up to people on the highest incomes and say, I'm sorry,
:02:48. > :02:53.justifying a big tax cut at this time is not fair. We will take away
:02:54. > :02:57.the winter allowance from the richer pensioners, and I think that's the
:02:58. > :03:03.right thing to do. George Osborne might agree, but he's not allowed to
:03:04. > :03:06.say so. That was the Chancellor and the shadow chancellor. Janan, it
:03:07. > :03:10.seems like we are in a race against time. No one argues that the
:03:11. > :03:14.recovery is not under way, in fact it looks quite strong after a long
:03:15. > :03:19.wait, but will it feed through to the living standards of ordinary
:03:20. > :03:24.people in time for the May election? They only have 14 months to do it.
:03:25. > :03:28.The big economic variable is business investment. Even during the
:03:29. > :03:32.downturn, businesses hoarded a lot of cash. The question is, are they
:03:33. > :03:37.confident enough to release that into investment and wages? Taking on
:03:38. > :03:40.new people, giving them higher pay settlements. That could make the
:03:41. > :03:46.difference and the country will feel more prosperous and this time next
:03:47. > :03:50.year. But come to think of it, it strikes me, that how anticipated it
:03:51. > :03:54.is, it's the least talked about Budget for many years. I think that
:03:55. > :03:58.is because the economy has settled down a bit, but also because people
:03:59. > :04:02.have got used to the idea that there is no such thing as a giveaway.
:04:03. > :04:07.Anything that is a tax cut will be taken away as a tax rise or spending
:04:08. > :04:10.cut. That's true during the good times but during fiscal
:04:11. > :04:17.consolidation, it's avoidable. - unavoidable. There is a plus and
:04:18. > :04:21.minus for the Conservatives here. 49% of people think the government
:04:22. > :04:24.is on roughly the right course, but only 16% think that their financial
:04:25. > :04:29.circumstances will improve this year. It will be a tough one for the
:04:30. > :04:35.Labour Party to respond to. I agree with Janan. Everyone seems bored
:04:36. > :04:40.with the run-up to the Budget. The front page of the Sunday Times was
:04:41. > :04:45.about fox hunting, the front page of the Sunday Telegraph was about EU
:04:46. > :04:50.renegotiation. Maybe we are saying this because there have not been
:04:51. > :04:55.many leaks. We have got used to them, and most of the George Osborne
:04:56. > :04:59.chat on Twitter was about how long his tie was. Freakishly long. I
:05:00. > :05:06.wouldn't dare to speculate why. Anything we should read into that? I
:05:07. > :05:13.don't know. For a long while there was no recovery, then it was it is a
:05:14. > :05:16.weak recovery, and now, all right, it's strong but not reaching
:05:17. > :05:22.everyone in the country. That is where we are in the debate. That's
:05:23. > :05:28.right, and the Conservative MPs are so anxious and they are making
:05:29. > :05:32.George Osborne announcing the rays in the personal allowance will go
:05:33. > :05:40.up, saying it might go up to 10 750 from next year, and Conservative MPs
:05:41. > :05:44.say that that's OK but we need to think about the middle voters.
:05:45. > :05:47.People are saying the economy is recovering but no one is feeling it
:05:48. > :05:51.in their pocket. These are people snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The
:05:52. > :05:56.Tories are saying these are our people and we have to get to them.
:05:57. > :06:02.He has given the Lib Dems more than they could have hoped for on raising
:06:03. > :06:06.the threshold. Why is he not saying we have done a bit for you, now we
:06:07. > :06:13.have to look after our people and get some of these people out of that
:06:14. > :06:15.40% bracket? Partly because the Lib Dems have asked for it so
:06:16. > :06:19.insistently behind-the-scenes. Somebody from the Treasury this week
:06:20. > :06:22.told me that these debates behind the scenes between the Lib Dems and
:06:23. > :06:27.Tories are incredibly tenacious and get more so every year. The Lib Dems
:06:28. > :06:32.have been insistent about going further on the threshold. The second
:06:33. > :06:37.reason is that the Tories think the issue can work for them in the next
:06:38. > :06:41.election. They can take the credit. If they enthusiastically going to
:06:42. > :06:46.?12,000 and make it a manifesto pledge, they can claim ownership of
:06:47. > :06:50.the policy. The Liberal Democrats want to take it to 12,500, which
:06:51. > :06:55.means you are getting into minimum wage territory. It's incredibly
:06:56. > :07:00.expensive and the Tories are saying that maybe you would be looking at
:07:01. > :07:04.the 40p rate. The Tories have played as well. There have been authorised
:07:05. > :07:07.briefings about the 40p rate, and Cameron and Osborne have said that
:07:08. > :07:10.their priority was helping the lowest paid which is a useful
:07:11. > :07:16.statement to make and it appeals to the UKIP voters who are the
:07:17. > :07:21.blue-collar workers. And we are right, the economy will determine
:07:22. > :07:24.the next election? You assume so. It was ever that is. It didn't in 992
:07:25. > :07:34.or 1987. It did in 1992. Ed Miliband's announcement last week
:07:35. > :07:37.that a Labour government would not hold a referendum on Europe unless
:07:38. > :07:39.there's another transfer of powers from Britain to Brussels has
:07:40. > :07:44.certainly clarified matters. UKIP say it just shows the mainstream
:07:45. > :07:47.parties can't be trusted. The Conservatives think it means UKIP
:07:48. > :07:50.voters might now flock back to them as the only realistic chance of
:07:51. > :07:54.securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot reports.
:07:55. > :07:58.When it comes to Europe and Britain's relation to it, the
:07:59. > :08:02.question is whether the answer is answered by a question. To be in or
:08:03. > :08:05.not to be in, that is the question, and our politicians have seemed less
:08:06. > :08:09.interested in question itself but whether they want to let us answer
:08:10. > :08:21.it. Labour clarified their position last week. There will be no transfer
:08:22. > :08:24.of powers without an in out referendum, without a clear choice
:08:25. > :08:30.as to whether Britain will stay in the EU. That seems yes to a
:08:31. > :08:34.referendum, but hold on. I believe it is unlikely that this lock will
:08:35. > :08:37.be used in the next Parliament. So that's a no. The Conservatives say
:08:38. > :08:47.yes to asking, in 2017, if re-elected, but haven't always. In
:08:48. > :08:50.2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by voting for a referendum on EU
:08:51. > :08:53.membership: the largest rebellion against a Tory prime minister over
:08:54. > :09:03.Europe. Prompted by a petition from over 100,000 members of the public.
:09:04. > :09:06.The wrong question at the wrong time said the Foreign Secretary of a
:09:07. > :09:08.coalition Government including selfie-conciously-pro European Lib
:09:09. > :09:11.Dems, who had a referendum pledge in their 2010 manifesto, but only in
:09:12. > :09:14.certain circumstances. So we have the newspapers, and the public
:09:15. > :09:17.meeting leaflets. UKIP have always wanted the question put regardless.
:09:18. > :09:25.But Labour's new position may change things and The Conservatives think
:09:26. > :09:31.so. I think it does, because, you know, we are saying very clearly,
:09:32. > :09:36.like UKIP, we want a referendum but only a Conservative government can
:09:37. > :09:41.deliver it because most suffer largest would say it is possible in
:09:42. > :09:50.the first past the post system to have a UKIP government --
:09:51. > :09:58.sophologists. And then it's easy for as to say that if a UKIP vote lets
:09:59. > :10:03.in a Conservative government, then they won't hold a referendum. UKIP
:10:04. > :10:07.seem undaunted by the clarifications of the other parties, campaigning
:10:08. > :10:10.like the rest but with a "tell it how it is, just saying what you re
:10:11. > :10:16.thinking, we aren't like them" attitude. They seem more worried
:10:17. > :10:21.about us and what we want, and I don't see that in the other parties.
:10:22. > :10:27.In parts of the UK, like South Essex, it's a message they think is
:10:28. > :10:31.working. They are taking the voters for granted again and people have
:10:32. > :10:38.had enough. People are angry, they see people saying they will get a
:10:39. > :10:43.vote on the European Union, but then it just comes down the road. They
:10:44. > :10:48.were quick to capitalise on the announcements, saying only the
:10:49. > :10:54.Conservatives will give you say so does it change things? Not really.
:10:55. > :10:58.We have been talking about a referendum and having a debate on
:10:59. > :11:02.the European Union for years, and the other parties are playing catch
:11:03. > :11:06.up. They have a trust issue. Nobody trusts them on the European Union
:11:07. > :11:09.and that is why people come to us. Who the average UKIP voter is, or
:11:10. > :11:12.how they voted before is complicated, and what dent they
:11:13. > :11:14.might make on Conservative and Labour votes in 2015 is trickier
:11:15. > :11:23.still, but someone's been crunching the numbers anyway. We reckon it is
:11:24. > :11:26.between 25 and 30% of the electorate broadly share the UKIP motivation,
:11:27. > :11:30.so to top out at that level would be difficult. That's an awful lot of
:11:31. > :11:35.voters, but it's not the majority, and this is the reason why the main
:11:36. > :11:38.parties can't afford to just openly appealed to the UKIP electorate too
:11:39. > :11:43.hard because the elections are won and lost amongst the other 70%, the
:11:44. > :11:49.middle-class, the graduate, the younger, ethnic minorities. An
:11:50. > :11:52.appeal to the values of UKIP voters will alienate some of the other
:11:53. > :11:56.groups, and they are arguably more significant in winning the election.
:11:57. > :11:59.Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem doggedly determined to dig away at
:12:00. > :12:02.any support the other parties have previously enjoyed.
:12:03. > :12:05.Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now
:12:06. > :12:22.for the Sunday Interview. Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good
:12:23. > :12:25.morning. So the Labour Party has shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the
:12:26. > :12:29.next by Minister, there will not be a referendum customer there's a long
:12:30. > :12:33.way between now and the next election, and Conservative party
:12:34. > :12:36.jobs and changes. We had a cast iron guarantee of a referendum from
:12:37. > :12:40.camera, then he three line whip people to vote against it, and now
:12:41. > :12:44.they are for it. What the Labour Party has done is open up a huge
:12:45. > :12:48.blank to us, and that is what we will go for in the European
:12:49. > :12:51.elections this coming year in May. I think there is a very strong chance
:12:52. > :12:55.that Labour will match the Conservative pledge by the next
:12:56. > :13:00.general election. There may be, but at the moment he has ruled it out,
:13:01. > :13:03.and if he does not change his mind and goes into the election with the
:13:04. > :13:10.policy as it is, the only chance of a referendum is a Tory government.
:13:11. > :13:14.If you think the Tories will form a majority, which I think is unlikely.
:13:15. > :13:17.Remember, two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative
:13:18. > :13:22.anyway. There is still this line of questioning that assumes UKIP voters
:13:23. > :13:25.are middle-class Tories. We have some voters like that, but most of
:13:26. > :13:31.them are coming to us from Labour, some from the Lib Dems and a lot of
:13:32. > :13:37.nonvoters. But it come the election you failed to change Mr Miliband's
:13:38. > :13:40.line, I repeat, the only chance of a referendum, if you want a
:13:41. > :13:44.referendum, if that is what matters, and the polls suggest it doesn't
:13:45. > :13:47.matter to that many people, but if that is what matters, the only way
:13:48. > :13:52.you can get one is to vote Conservative. No, because you have a
:13:53. > :13:56.situation in key marginals, especially where all three parties
:13:57. > :14:00.are getting a good share, where we will see, and this depends a lot on
:14:01. > :14:07.the local elections and the European elections, there are target
:14:08. > :14:10.constituencies where UKIP has a reasonably good chance of winning a
:14:11. > :14:17.seat, and that will change the agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a
:14:18. > :14:20.Tory government less likely. Arab voters are not Tory. Only a third of
:14:21. > :14:27.the UKIP boat comes from the Conservative party -- our voters are
:14:28. > :14:31.not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was mentioned earlier, about blue-collar
:14:32. > :14:33.voters. We pick up far more Labour Party and nonvoters than
:14:34. > :14:37.conservatives. On the balance of what the effect of the UKIP boat
:14:38. > :14:41.is, the Tories should worry about us, they should worry about the fact
:14:42. > :14:46.they have lost faith with their own electorate. Even if there is a
:14:47. > :14:49.minority Ed Miliband government it means no referendum. Labour and the
:14:50. > :14:54.Liberal Democrats are now at one on the matter. The next election is in
:14:55. > :14:58.a few weeks time, the European elections. What happens in those
:14:59. > :15:02.elections will likely change the party stands and position on a
:15:03. > :15:06.referendum. The fact that Ed Miliband has said this means, for
:15:07. > :15:10.us, our big target on the 22nd of May will be the Labour voters in the
:15:11. > :15:14.Midlands and northern cities, and if we do hammer into that boat and we
:15:15. > :15:23.are able to beat Labour on the day, there's a good chance of their
:15:24. > :15:31.policy changing. One poll this morning suggests Labour is close to
:15:32. > :15:38.you at 28, the Conservatives down at 21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You
:15:39. > :15:41.are taking votes from the Conservatives and the Liberal
:15:42. > :15:49.Democrats. We are certainly taking votes from the Lib Dems but that is
:15:50. > :15:54.comparing the poll with one year ago when I don't think most people knew
:15:55. > :15:59.what the question really was. You seem to be in an impossible position
:16:00. > :16:05.because the better you do in a general election, the less chance
:16:06. > :16:10.there will be a referendum by 2 20. No, look at the numbers. Only a
:16:11. > :16:16.third of our voters are Conservatives. When we have polled
:16:17. > :16:20.voters that have come to us, we asked them if there was no UKIP
:16:21. > :16:25.candidate who would you vote for, less than one in five said
:16:26. > :16:30.Conservative. Less than one in five UKIP voters would be tempted to vote
:16:31. > :16:36.Conservative under any circumstances so the arithmetic does not suggest
:16:37. > :16:39.we are the Conservative problem it suggests we are hurting all of the
:16:40. > :16:44.parties and the reason the Tories are in trouble is because they have
:16:45. > :16:51.lost their traditional base. Why do you think Nick Clegg is debating
:16:52. > :16:59.Europe? I think they are in trouble, at 8% they could be wiped
:17:00. > :17:04.out, they could go from 12 to nothing and I think it is a chance
:17:05. > :17:10.for Nick Clegg to raise their profile. They are fringe party with
:17:11. > :17:15.respect to this contest so I see why he wants to do it. One of our big
:17:16. > :17:19.criticisms is that we have not been able to have a full debate on
:17:20. > :17:24.national television on the alternatives of the European Union
:17:25. > :17:38.so I am looking forward to it. How are you preparing? I think you can
:17:39. > :17:44.be over scripted with these things. Are you not doing mock debates? No,
:17:45. > :17:48.I am checking my facts and figures and making sure that I can show the
:17:49. > :17:54.British people that in terms of jobs, we would be far better off not
:17:55. > :17:58.being within the European Union not being within its rule book, not
:17:59. > :18:04.suffering from some of the green taxes they are putting on the
:18:05. > :18:10.manufacturing industry. The idea that 3 million jobs are at risk I
:18:11. > :18:16.want to show why that is nonsense. Who do you think is playing you in
:18:17. > :18:23.their mock debates? They probably went to the pub and found someone!
:18:24. > :18:27.We will see. You have promised to do whatever it takes to fund your
:18:28. > :18:34.European election campaign, how much has been given so far? Just give it
:18:35. > :18:40.a few weeks and you will see what Paul is planning to do. He has made
:18:41. > :18:49.a substantial investment in the campaign already. How much? I'm not
:18:50. > :18:53.answering that for now. We are well on our way to a properly funded
:18:54. > :19:00.campaign and our big target will be the big cities and the working vote
:19:01. > :19:04.in those communities. Your deputy chairman Neil Hamilton is another
:19:05. > :19:09.former Tory, he says so far we haven't seen the colour of his
:19:10. > :19:16.money. Exactly two weeks ago, and things have changed since then. Mr
:19:17. > :19:25.Sykes has written a cheque since then? Yes. This morning's papers
:19:26. > :19:33.saying you will be asking MEPs to contribute ?50,000 each, is that
:19:34. > :19:39.true? Over the next five years, yes. Not for the European campaign. So
:19:40. > :19:44.lack of money will not be an excuse. We will have a properly funded
:19:45. > :19:48.campaign. How we raise the kind of money needed to fund the general
:19:49. > :19:59.election afterwards is another question. What is UKIP's policy on
:20:00. > :20:04.paying family members? We don't encourage it and I didn't employ any
:20:05. > :20:10.family member for years. My wife ended up doing the job and paid for
:20:11. > :20:17.the first seven years of my job She is paid now? Until May, then she
:20:18. > :20:25.comes off the payroll am which leaves me with a huge problem. In
:20:26. > :20:31.2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not employ wives and there will be no
:20:32. > :20:35.exceptions. An exception was made because I became leader of the
:20:36. > :20:39.National party as well as a leader of the group in European
:20:40. > :20:43.Parliament. Things do change in life, and you can criticise me for
:20:44. > :20:49.whatever you like, but I cannot be criticised for not having a big
:20:50. > :20:58.enough workload. No, but you didn't employ your wife when you had told
:20:59. > :21:01.others not to do it your party. Nobody else in my party has a big
:21:02. > :21:06.job in Europe and the UK. We made the exception for this because of
:21:07. > :21:11.very unusual circumstances. It also looks like there was a monetary
:21:12. > :21:18.calculation. Listen to this clip from a BBC documentary in 2000. It
:21:19. > :21:24.is a good job. I worked it out because so much of what you get is
:21:25. > :21:27.after tax that if you used the secretarial allowances to pay your
:21:28. > :21:35.wife on top of the other games you can play, I reckon this job in
:21:36. > :21:38.Stirling term is over a quarter of ?1 million a year. That is what you
:21:39. > :21:45.would need to earn working for Goldman Sachs or someone like that.
:21:46. > :21:48.I agree with that. More importantly the way you really make money in the
:21:49. > :21:53.European Parliament is being their five days a week, because you sign
:21:54. > :21:59.in every day, you get 300 euros every day, and that is how people
:22:00. > :22:04.maxed out. The criticism of me is that I am not there enough so
:22:05. > :22:08.whatever good or bad I have done in the European Parliament, financial
:22:09. > :22:13.gain has not been one of the benefits. There have been
:22:14. > :22:18.allegations of you also employing a former mistress on the same European
:22:19. > :22:23.Parliamentary allowance, you deny that? I am very upset with the BBC
:22:24. > :22:28.coverage of this. The ten o'clock news run this as a story without
:22:29. > :22:32.explaining that that allegation was made using Parliamentary privilege
:22:33. > :22:40.by somebody on bail facing serious fraud charges. I thought that was
:22:41. > :22:48.pretty poor. You have a chance to do that and you deny you have employed
:22:49. > :22:52.a former mistress? Yes, but if you look at many of the things said over
:22:53. > :22:56.the last week, I think it is becoming pretty clear to voters that
:22:57. > :23:03.the establishment are becoming terrified of UKIP and they will use
:23:04. > :23:10.anything they can find to do us down in public. Is an MEP employs his
:23:11. > :23:16.wife and his former mistress, that would be resigning matter, wouldn't
:23:17. > :23:20.it? Yes, particularly if the assumption was that money was being
:23:21. > :23:27.taped for work but was not being done. Who do you think is behind
:23:28. > :23:34.these stories? It is all about negative, it is all about attacks,
:23:35. > :23:37.but I don't think it is actually going to work because so much of
:23:38. > :23:42.what has been said in the last week is nonsense. A reputable daily
:23:43. > :23:47.newspaper said I shouldn't be trusted because I had stored six
:23:48. > :23:51.times for the Conservative party, I have never even stored in a local
:23:52. > :23:56.council election. I think if you keep kicking an underdog, it will
:23:57. > :24:07.make the British people rally around us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes,
:24:08. > :24:12.and the idea that all of our voters are retired colonels is simply not
:24:13. > :24:22.true. We get some voters from the Labour side as well. Would you
:24:23. > :24:27.consider standing in a Labour seat if you are so sure you are getting
:24:28. > :24:36.Labour votes? Yes, but the key for UKIP is that it has to be marginal.
:24:37. > :24:43.Just for your own future, if you fail to win a single soul -- single
:24:44. > :24:48.seat in the general election, if Ed Miliband fails to win an outright
:24:49. > :24:53.majority, will you stand down as UKIP leader? I would think within
:24:54. > :24:58.about 12 hours, yes. I will have failed, I got into politics not
:24:59. > :25:04.because I wanted a career in politics, far from it. I did it
:25:05. > :25:07.because I don't think this European entanglement is right for our
:25:08. > :25:12.country. I think a lot of people have woken up to the idea we have
:25:13. > :25:19.lost control of our borders and now is the moment for UKIP to achieve
:25:20. > :25:24.what it set out to do. Will UKIP continue without you if you stand
:25:25. > :25:34.down? Of course it will. I know that everyone says it is a one-man band
:25:35. > :25:36.but it is far from that. We have had some painful moments, getting rid of
:25:37. > :25:41.old UKIP, new UKIP is more professional, less angry and it is
:25:42. > :25:46.going places. Nigel Farage, thank you for being with us.
:25:47. > :25:49.So, what else should we be looking out for in Wednesday's Budget
:25:50. > :25:51.statement? We've compiled a Sunday Politics guide to the Chancellor's
:25:52. > :25:54.likely announcements. Eyes down everyone, it's time for a
:25:55. > :25:58.bit of budget bingo. Let's see what we will get from the man who lives
:25:59. > :26:01.at legs 11. Despite some good news on the economy, George Osborne says
:26:02. > :26:05.that this will be a Budget of hard truths with more pain ahead in order
:26:06. > :26:07.to get the public finances back under control. But many in the
:26:08. > :26:10.Conservative party, including the former chancellor Norman Lamont
:26:11. > :26:13.want Mr Osborne to help the middle classes by doing something about the
:26:14. > :26:20.4.4 million people who fall into the 40% bracket. Around one million more
:26:21. > :26:23.people pay tax at that rate compared to 2010 because the higher tax
:26:24. > :26:28.threshold hasn't increased in line with inflation. Mr Osborne has
:26:29. > :26:32.indicated he might tackle the issue in the next Conservative manifesto,
:26:33. > :26:38.but for now he is focused on helping the low paid. It's likely we will
:26:39. > :26:43.see another increase in the amount you can earn before being taxed
:26:44. > :26:46.perhaps up another ?500 to ?10, 00. The Chancellor is going to flesh out
:26:47. > :26:49.the details of a tax break for childcare payments, and there could
:26:50. > :27:06.be cries of 'house' with the promise of more help for the building
:27:07. > :27:10.industry. The Help To Buy scheme will be extended to 2020 and there
:27:11. > :27:13.could be the go-ahead for the first Garden City in 40 years. Finally,
:27:14. > :27:15.bingo regulars could be celebrating a full house with a possible cut in
:27:16. > :27:18.bingo tax. And I've been joined in the studio
:27:19. > :27:20.by the former Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford
:27:21. > :27:23.by the former Labour Cabinet minister Hazel Blears, and in
:27:24. > :27:26.Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come
:27:27. > :27:33.to Norman Lamont first, you and another former Tory Chancellor,
:27:34. > :27:43.Nigel Lawson, have called in the fall in the threshold for the rate
:27:44. > :27:48.at which the 40p clicks in. I would have preferred an adjustment in the
:27:49. > :27:53.Budget but I agree with what you are saying, it sounds like the
:27:54. > :27:58.Chancellor will not do that. My main point is that you cannot go on
:27:59. > :28:01.forever and forever increasing the personal allowance and not
:28:02. > :28:07.increasing the 40% tax threshold because you are driving more and
:28:08. > :28:10.more people into that band. It is an expensive policy because in order to
:28:11. > :28:16.keep the number of people not paying tax constant, you have to keep
:28:17. > :28:23.adjusting it each year. When this was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it
:28:24. > :28:30.applied to one in 20 people, the 40% rate, it now applies to one in six
:28:31. > :28:34.people. By next year, there will be 6 million people paying base. Why do
:28:35. > :28:40.you think your Tory colleagues seem happy to go along with the Lib Dems
:28:41. > :28:54.and target whatever money there is for tax cuts rather -- on the lower
:28:55. > :29:00.paid rather than the middle incomes? They are not helping the lowest
:29:01. > :29:03.paid. If you wanted to really help the lowest paid people you would
:29:04. > :29:10.raise the threshold for national insurance contributions, which is
:29:11. > :29:19.around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems stopping any rise in the 40p
:29:20. > :29:25.threshold? We are concentrating on raising the lower threshold because
:29:26. > :29:31.we believe that is the way to help those on lower incomes. Whilst they
:29:32. > :29:34.haven't benefited as much as the lower paid they have participated
:29:35. > :29:39.and I think people understand right now, if you were going to prioritise
:29:40. > :29:44.the high earners, when we are still trying to help those on lower and
:29:45. > :29:48.middle incomes who haven't enjoyed great pay increases but have got the
:29:49. > :29:53.benefit of these tax increases, that is why we would like to do it for
:29:54. > :30:00.the minimum wage level. But the poorest will not benefit at all The
:30:01. > :30:05.poorest 16% already don't pay tax. Why don't you increase the threshold
:30:06. > :30:14.at which National Insurance starts? You only have two earned ?5,500
:30:15. > :30:18.before you start to pay it. You ve got to remember that the raising of
:30:19. > :30:23.the threshold to ?10,000 or more was something the Tories said we could
:30:24. > :30:30.not afford. Why are you continuing to do it? If you want to help the
:30:31. > :30:36.working poor, the way would be to take the lowest out of national
:30:37. > :30:40.insurance. The view we take is they are benefiting, and have benefited
:30:41. > :30:45.from, the raising of the tax threshold. You now have to earn
:30:46. > :30:50.?10,000, we hope eventually 12, 00, and that means only people on very
:30:51. > :30:53.low wages. If you opt out of national insurance, you're saying to
:30:54. > :30:59.people that you make no contribution to the welfare system, so there is a
:31:00. > :31:04.general principle that people should participate and paying, and also
:31:05. > :31:07.claim when they need something out. We thought raising the threshold was
:31:08. > :31:10.simple and effective at a time of economic austerity and the right way
:31:11. > :31:17.to deliver a helpful support to welcoming people. -- working people.
:31:18. > :31:21.With the Labour Party continue to raise the threshold, or do they
:31:22. > :31:27.think there is a case that there are too many people being dragged into
:31:28. > :31:30.the 40p tax bracket? If Norman Lamont thinks this is the right time
:31:31. > :31:34.to benefit people who are reasonably well off rather than those who are
:31:35. > :31:38.struggling to make ends meet, then genuinely, I say it respectfully, I
:31:39. > :31:43.don't think he's living in the world the rest of us are. Most working
:31:44. > :31:46.people have seen their wages effectively reduced by about ?1 00
:31:47. > :31:53.because they have been frozen, so the right thing is to help people on
:31:54. > :31:56.modest incomes. I also understand that if the 40% threshold went up,
:31:57. > :32:01.the people who would benefit the most, as ever, are the people who
:32:02. > :32:05.are really well off, not the people in the middle. The Conservatives
:32:06. > :32:11.have already reduced the 50p tax on people over ?150,000 a year, and we
:32:12. > :32:14.have to concentrate on the people going out to work, doing their best
:32:15. > :32:17.to bring their children up and have a decent life and need a bit of
:32:18. > :32:21.help. I think raising the threshold is a good thing. We would bring back
:32:22. > :32:28.the 10p tax, which we should never have abolished, and do things with
:32:29. > :32:31.regard to childcare. At the moment, childcare costs the average family
:32:32. > :32:35.as much as their mortgage, for goodness sake. We would give 25
:32:36. > :32:38.hours free childcare for youngsters over three and four years old. That
:32:39. > :32:46.would be a massive boost the working families. We are talking about
:32:47. > :32:50.nurses, tube drivers, warrant officers in the army. There are many
:32:51. > :32:55.people who are not well off but have been squeezed in the way everybody
:32:56. > :32:59.has been squeezed and they are finding it continuing. I am stunned
:33:00. > :33:02.by Malcolm's argument where everybody should pay something so
:33:03. > :33:05.you should not take people out of national insurance, but the
:33:06. > :33:11.principle doesn't apply to income tax. You can stand that argument on
:33:12. > :33:15.its head and apply it to income tax. Most people don't see a difference
:33:16. > :33:20.between income tax and national insurance, it's the same thing to
:33:21. > :33:22.most people. It is true that it isn't really an insurance fund and
:33:23. > :33:28.there is an argument from merging both of them. But we have
:33:29. > :33:34.concentrated on a simple tax proposition. Norman is ignoring the
:33:35. > :33:38.fact the people on the 40% rate have benefited by the raising of the
:33:39. > :33:41.personal allowance. To say they have been squeezed is unfair. The
:33:42. > :33:47.calculation is that an ordinary taxpayer will be ?700 better off at
:33:48. > :33:51.the current threshold, and about ?500 better off at the higher rate.
:33:52. > :33:56.It is misleading to say the better off we'll be paying more. I agree
:33:57. > :34:00.with Hazel, if you go to the 40 rate, it's the higher earners who
:34:01. > :34:04.benefit the most, and we won't do that when the economy is not where
:34:05. > :34:11.it was before the crash. How much will the lower paid be better off if
:34:12. > :34:16.you reintroduce the 10p rate? Significantly better off. I don t
:34:17. > :34:22.have the figure myself, but they'd be significantly better off and the
:34:23. > :34:25.Budget should be a mixture of measures to help people who work
:34:26. > :34:29.hard. That is why I think the childcare issue has to be
:34:30. > :34:35.addressed. ?100 a week of the people with childcare payments. It is a
:34:36. > :34:39.massive issue. We want the job is guaranteed to get young people back
:34:40. > :34:42.into work. There's been hardly any discussion about that, and we have
:34:43. > :34:45.nearly 1 million people who have been out of work for six months or
:34:46. > :34:53.more, and as a country we need to do something to help that. 350,000
:34:54. > :34:55.full-time students, so it is a misleading figure. It is not a
:34:56. > :35:02.million including full-time students. All parties do this. It
:35:03. > :35:05.sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you have more in common with the Labour
:35:06. > :35:09.Party than you do with the Conservatives. You want an annual
:35:10. > :35:13.levy on houses over ?2 million, so does Labour. A lot of your members
:35:14. > :35:17.want to scrap the so-called bedroom tax and so does labour. You think
:35:18. > :35:21.every teacher should have a teaching qualification, and so does Labour.
:35:22. > :35:26.Your policy on the EU referendum is the same. Let me go on. And you want
:35:27. > :35:32.to scrap the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. We want to
:35:33. > :35:34.make sure we get the public finances in order and we have grave
:35:35. > :35:44.reservations about the Labour Party promises. But they followed your
:35:45. > :35:48.spending plans in the first year. The point we are making is we can
:35:49. > :35:51.make a fairer society and stronger economy if you keep the public
:35:52. > :35:55.finances moving towards balance We don't think the Labour Party will
:35:56. > :35:58.take a stand that track. It is interesting that the Labour Party
:35:59. > :36:04.want to introduce the 10p rate that Gordon Brown abolished. We consider
:36:05. > :36:11.that before we can -- committed to the 0% rate -- we considered that.
:36:12. > :36:16.It makes a complicated system difficult and we think it's better
:36:17. > :36:20.doing it that way. As a fiscal conservative, why are you talking
:36:21. > :36:23.about any tax cuts when the deficit is over ?100 billion, and
:36:24. > :36:28.effectively, anything you propose today can only be financed by more
:36:29. > :36:33.borrowing. I totally agree with you. I said that this week. I thought the
:36:34. > :36:37.best thing would have no Budget The main thing is to get the deficit
:36:38. > :36:40.down. My argument is is that you have an adjustment in tax rates it
:36:41. > :36:45.should be shared between the allowances and the higher rate, but
:36:46. > :36:51.I don't think that the progress on the deficit is something we can give
:36:52. > :36:58.up on. This is still a very long way to go. We're only halfway through.
:36:59. > :37:01.Hazel, does it make sense to borrow for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do
:37:02. > :37:08.this, but I agree with both Norman and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to
:37:09. > :37:12.borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely need to get the deficit down and get
:37:13. > :37:17.finances on a strong footing. But we also have to think about having some
:37:18. > :37:21.spending in the system that in the longer run saves us money. We all
:37:22. > :37:25.know we need to build new homes I don't think it's necessarily the
:37:26. > :37:30.right priority to give people in London mortgage relief in terms of
:37:31. > :37:34.?600,000. We have to get the balance right. Sometimes it is right to
:37:35. > :37:41.spend to save. I'm afraid we have run out of time. There will be
:37:42. > :37:43.plenty more discussion in the lead up to the Budget on Wednesday.
:37:44. > :37:47.It's just gone 11:35am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:37:48. > :37:51.goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:37:52. > :37:54.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, Frances O'Grady, the
:37:55. > :38:10.And Mr Sunday Politics East the us discuss
:38:11. > :38:14.And Mr Sunday Politics East the south`east. Coming up, should
:38:15. > :38:21.everyone have the right to larch where they want to? We will be
:38:22. > :38:25.asking that as councillors say Brighton's March For England should
:38:26. > :38:30.be banned from the seafront. Joining me at the Conservative MP for
:38:31. > :38:37.Sevenoaks Michael Fallon, also a government minister for energy and
:38:38. > :38:43.business, and Lord Steve Bassam First to the debate on whether there
:38:44. > :38:48.should be an in`out referendum on the EU. We already knew that David
:38:49. > :38:52.Cameron wants one and Nick Clegg doesn't but we didn't know what Ed
:38:53. > :39:02.Miliband thought. He told us in his beach this week.
:39:03. > :39:06.If a voter asked you, will xou guarantee me a say on whethdr
:39:07. > :39:08.Britain stays and gets out of the EU, what is the answer in a
:39:09. > :39:15.sentence? If there is a transfer of powers
:39:16. > :39:20.from Britain to the European Union then there will be a referendum My
:39:21. > :39:28.priority is jobs for young people, protecting the NHS.
:39:29. > :39:31.So maybe or maybe not. I said very clearly that thd lock
:39:32. > :39:38.will be triggered in the next Parliament.
:39:39. > :39:48.Pin elections take place in just under two months' time. Our guest
:39:49. > :39:53.last week said in reaction to Ed Miliband's announcement, anx target
:39:54. > :40:02.seats Ed Miliband were hoping to take have been delivered to your
:40:03. > :40:13.cat. She is right as an she? `` delivered to you kept. `` UKIP.
:40:14. > :40:19.I think he has put the case very positively. If there is a proposal
:40:20. > :40:22.to transfer powers away frol the UK then Labour will trigger a
:40:23. > :40:27.referendum and I think that is right. I think that clarifids
:40:28. > :40:32.exactly where we are. Our Tory colleagues are in this curious
:40:33. > :40:37.position of saying they might have a referendum by the end of 2007 if
:40:38. > :40:45.they manage to renegotiate the deal or package with 27 other melbers of
:40:46. > :40:49.the EU. It very unlikely scdnario. To MPs last week on this programme
:40:50. > :40:55.said they want out of Europd, one of them known to be a loyalist in the
:40:56. > :41:00.party. Despite your leader's promise, this issue just get worse
:41:01. > :41:05.for you. We are saying there will be a
:41:06. > :41:15.referendum in 2017 on the rdform package we want for Europe. A much
:41:16. > :41:20.less bureaucratic Europe, there are four parties, two of them don't want
:41:21. > :41:23.any change at all, that is Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There are
:41:24. > :41:26.only two that want to changd and there is only one and that hs asked
:41:27. > :41:31.I to do anything about it. I dispute that.
:41:32. > :41:35.You said you didn't want to change Europe.
:41:36. > :41:39.We have said we want Europe to reform.
:41:40. > :41:42.So why is it unlikely there will be a referendum?
:41:43. > :41:48.He was talking about whether there was a transfer of hours proposed to
:41:49. > :41:51.be away from the UK to Europe. In those circumstances we are very
:41:52. > :41:57.clear. Have got to sell that to thd voters.
:41:58. > :42:04.It is quite a confused mess`ge. You have arguably helped Michael's
:42:05. > :42:09.party. I don't think there is uncertainty.
:42:10. > :42:16.I think it has been created by damaging business. We have got the
:42:17. > :42:21.right approach to the EU and the necessary reforms.
:42:22. > :42:25.We are going to leave it thdre but we are going to stay on the subject
:42:26. > :42:35.of Ed Miliband's strategy bdcause the party is wrote meeting hn
:42:36. > :42:42.Crawley `` meeting in Crawldy for the party conference. In thd last
:42:43. > :42:46.general election, the party was wiped off the political map you re
:42:47. > :42:52.so what are the prospects of a rock bible? I talked to their deputy
:42:53. > :43:04.leader Harriet Harman. `` prospects of a revival.
:43:05. > :43:12.Labour candidates must be w`ving goodbye to power, according to
:43:13. > :43:18.UKIP. I'm not concerned about what they
:43:19. > :43:25.say because that is not the point of what Ed Miliband said. It is not
:43:26. > :43:30.confused, what he said forw`rd, it is actually quite a complex issue
:43:31. > :43:36.but it is very clear what hd said. Overall, he thinks the question of
:43:37. > :43:40.all the jobs that depend on our trade with Europe, it is very
:43:41. > :43:43.important that we have that relationship with the Europdan Union
:43:44. > :43:49.and are part of the European Union so that we can sell our goods to
:43:50. > :43:53.them and attract investment into this country because we are part of
:43:54. > :43:58.the big trading bloc that is the European Union.
:43:59. > :44:06.They might not want to think about it but let's remind ourselvds that
:44:07. > :44:12.you have serious work to do here. UKIP is the party that is stealing
:44:13. > :44:17.seats from you in marginal seats. They proved to be a very serious
:44:18. > :44:18.threat to you here in the south`east.
:44:19. > :44:27.I think the most important thing is to show that we are on the doorstep
:44:28. > :44:34.and on people 's side. People say to us they will vote for UKIP because
:44:35. > :44:40.we are all the same and we don't go round there and aren't concdrned
:44:41. > :44:49.about them and use UKIP is ` kind of plague on all your houses khnd of
:44:50. > :44:52.boat. That challenges us to show that's we understand the problems
:44:53. > :45:00.people are having and we ard on the side. But looking over our shoulder
:45:01. > :45:13.to UKIP policies, because I don t think they offer a way forw`rd for
:45:14. > :45:21.growth or jobs or the NHS. It is one issue that is your parties
:45:22. > :45:28.`` party's Achilles' heel, immigration.
:45:29. > :45:36.People are worried about thd effects of migration and that is whx we have
:45:37. > :45:41.said we want to bring about changes in the European Union and Ed
:45:42. > :45:47.Miliband has identified a ntmber of ways of changing it. One of those is
:45:48. > :45:51.how long it takes a country to join the European Union.
:45:52. > :45:56.Let us get back to the general election. In your target se`ts, not
:45:57. > :45:59.many of them are in the south`east compared to the last general
:46:00. > :46:06.election. Is that an admisshon you are writing of this region?
:46:07. > :46:13.No, we are not writing of this region. There are council elections
:46:14. > :46:18.coming up and people need strong councillors on their side. There is
:46:19. > :46:25.no difference between the Tories and the Lib Dems right now. Thex are
:46:26. > :46:29.both responsible for the cost of living crisis and growing problems
:46:30. > :46:34.in the NHS. We look forward to seeing how he
:46:35. > :46:39.will do. She is not terribly bothered about
:46:40. > :46:44.what UKIP is saying. Does she realise the scale of the problem
:46:45. > :46:49.your party has in this region? Come general election day, there
:46:50. > :46:54.will be a broad and it will either be David Cameron or Ed Miliband She
:46:55. > :47:03.is absolutely right to focus on our message. Of course UKIP is ` threat
:47:04. > :47:15.but even in the regions she noted earlier, there is...
:47:16. > :47:20.Your party doesn't have any representation.
:47:21. > :47:29.We are campaigning hard in the south`east. We have got good
:47:30. > :47:32.prospects. We have got more councillors in the district
:47:33. > :47:38.authorities. Not enough considering it is four
:47:39. > :47:44.years since she had an MP. We made progress in the council
:47:45. > :47:53.elections as well. Our progress is good. We know we can win se`ts in
:47:54. > :48:05.the south`east. We at concentrating on jobs crisis for young people And
:48:06. > :48:07.the health sector. We know we have campaign issues that are effective
:48:08. > :48:20.and we think we have the right approach to Europe. We understand
:48:21. > :48:27.the concern about immigration. You are talking about hard pressed
:48:28. > :48:37.to voters, that is a diffictlt message for you to sell to people.
:48:38. > :48:40.I think we can point to the achievement of the coalition. We
:48:41. > :48:51.were left with this terribld economic legacy which left this
:48:52. > :48:59.region worse off than most. Of course, we didn't have an oral
:49:00. > :49:07.majority but we can work towards the next election and get some of our
:49:08. > :49:17.policies into action `` over role majority. Labour still wants to
:49:18. > :49:24.borrow. Ed Miliband says she still got it
:49:25. > :49:31.wrong. We had to save the banks in the
:49:32. > :49:36.crisis. Your party was at the wrong side of that argument at thd time.
:49:37. > :49:40.There was growth in the British economy for the first two qtarters
:49:41. > :49:45.of 2010 and that was part of Labour's success.
:49:46. > :49:50.You have made very modest g`ins You have only got the year to the next
:49:51. > :49:56.general election. How many seats do you think realistically why you will
:49:57. > :50:01.be able to win back here? I think the general election in 2015
:50:02. > :50:06.is there for us to win and the coalition is clearly falling apart
:50:07. > :50:09.and the Conservative Party hs divided amongst itself, as we have
:50:10. > :50:19.seen this week over Europe. We will have a strong case whether the
:50:20. > :50:22.British general electorate. You don't sound very optimistic
:50:23. > :50:42.about winning seats in the south`east. If you are going to be a
:50:43. > :50:45.national party... We have done huge progress in reducing the deficit.
:50:46. > :50:48.The last thing we want to do is go back.
:50:49. > :50:51.We could talk about that policy for hours but we will have to ldave it
:50:52. > :51:00.there. In six weeks time, the marchers
:51:01. > :51:13.planned across Brighton front. But few cars the contract of `` you
:51:14. > :51:17.marches cause the controversy of March For England.
:51:18. > :51:31.It has become a regular datd in the Brighton calendar when... The
:51:32. > :51:36.organisers say they wanted to be peaceful but others say it hs a
:51:37. > :51:41.front for far right groups. In recent years, the event has been
:51:42. > :51:48.marred by violence and conflict between the two groups. Last year,
:51:49. > :51:56.19 people were arrested as larches clashed with opposition protesters.
:51:57. > :52:12.Two police officers were injured. This man once banned.
:52:13. > :52:19.`` this man wants it banned. One trader told me it cost him
:52:20. > :52:26.?10,000. Others were fearful that they couldn't open their shops. I do
:52:27. > :52:30.not think that is fair. Brighton is widely known for
:52:31. > :52:36.tolerance and diversity and most locals fundamentally agree with the
:52:37. > :52:41.right to protest but most traders say it is the route they object to.
:52:42. > :52:46.If they want to express thehr preferences, they should, btt maybe
:52:47. > :52:51.not on the seafront. It was over the top last ye`r, it
:52:52. > :52:56.was like a war zone. It stops access for us traddrs and
:52:57. > :53:10.we lose a day's trade. What is the answer?
:53:11. > :53:18.Move the march, full stop. It costs nearly ?500,000 to police.
:53:19. > :53:27.Some say there is a wider cost to the city.
:53:28. > :53:38.The economic damage is one thing but the reputational damage is worse. It
:53:39. > :53:44.is entirely the opposite. Brighton is no stranger to protests.
:53:45. > :53:49.During the 1960s, there werd violent clashes between the mods and
:53:50. > :53:53.rockers. Today, the city is better known for colourful events like
:53:54. > :54:00.Brighton Pride. The March For England is more controversi`l. What
:54:01. > :54:06.can be done? It seems a council has limited powers to intervene. But
:54:07. > :54:11.there are discussions with Sussex Police over coordination of the
:54:12. > :54:16.march. The ban can only be ordered by the Home Secretary and only in
:54:17. > :54:21.extreme cases. The march wotld be that the call to stop but there is
:54:22. > :54:26.extreme pressure to relocatd it It is fair to say that the March For
:54:27. > :54:32.England is extremely unpopular but the plan is for the seafront to be
:54:33. > :54:39.cordoned off as the march m`kes its way along this road. That still
:54:40. > :54:43.leaves one question unanswered, happy but 's got the appropriate
:54:44. > :54:47.balance between the rights of demonstrators and the reput`tion of
:54:48. > :54:54.Brighton is one of Britain's's Premier tourist resorts.
:54:55. > :54:58.Superintendent Steve Whitton joins us now from Brighton. Are you
:54:59. > :55:04.expecting much trouble? It is fair to say that therd have
:55:05. > :55:08.been problems in the past and last year and previous years there has
:55:09. > :55:14.been some violence. I am determined to get the balance right between an
:55:15. > :55:20.individual's fundamental right to peacefully protest and our wider
:55:21. > :55:24.responsibilities around maintaining order.
:55:25. > :55:30.How do you do that? What ard your options?
:55:31. > :55:35.The legal powers which govern how we can pull is a situation that smack
:55:36. > :55:55.police `` Paul is a situation.. There are certain situations we can
:55:56. > :56:01.impose if we feel them necessary. We heard in the report that you have
:56:02. > :56:09.an option of going to the Home Secretary. When we consider that?
:56:10. > :56:18.It is one of those things wd struggle with every year in terms of
:56:19. > :56:24.understanding. It is fundamdntal that people are loads to pe`cefully
:56:25. > :56:32.protest. In terms of Hanning a march, that can only be considered
:56:33. > :56:39.if we feel there is likely to be serious disorder and the only way we
:56:40. > :56:43.can prevent that is to ban the march.
:56:44. > :56:50.While you anywhere near reaching that point?
:56:51. > :56:54.I will keep this under constant review but we are not anywhdre near
:56:55. > :56:59.that threshold and it is an exceptional power that has only been
:57:00. > :57:05.used a couple of times nationally. The other important point around
:57:06. > :57:11.powers to ban a march is th`t it only bands in March, there hs no
:57:12. > :57:17.power to ban an assembly whhch could cause more disruption if we can t
:57:18. > :57:21.manage it within a controlldd way. Thank you for explaining yotr
:57:22. > :57:29.situation. Lord Bassam of Brighton, you know the city well. What should
:57:30. > :57:32.be done? I am rather sympathetic to the call
:57:33. > :57:45.for banning it. These are b`sically nasty, racist thugs.
:57:46. > :57:47.Actually, the counter protesters are usually the ones that cause the
:57:48. > :57:57.trouble. I am not terribly sympathethc to
:57:58. > :58:03.this March and I think the police working with the local authority
:58:04. > :58:09.should try to ban this becatse it is bad for local business and not good
:58:10. > :58:12.for the reputation of the chty. I believe in protecting peopld 's
:58:13. > :58:14.rights to a voice that I don't think this is giving voice to much
:58:15. > :58:23.really. It is Lord Bassam's home turf so he
:58:24. > :58:30.knows it better than most pdople but I am wary about banning people s
:58:31. > :58:38.right to protest. Even Stop The March don't w`nt to
:58:39. > :58:44.stop the march. It is for the police to man`ge
:58:45. > :58:50.this. And to pay for it.
:58:51. > :58:58.I quite understand that dam`ged to trade and it is up to the ptlleys to
:58:59. > :59:02.manage this. I don't think that answers should always be just to ban
:59:03. > :59:11.it. It is time now for the other
:59:12. > :59:14.political stories of the wedk. No fracking in the National Parks
:59:15. > :59:17.says The National Trust and wildlife groups. The South Downs is one
:59:18. > :59:21.National Park meted for the controversial shale gas extraction
:59:22. > :59:24.method. 30 years after the start of the
:59:25. > :59:27.Miners' Strikes, Betteshangdr Colliery near Dover will get coastal
:59:28. > :59:32.communities funding, turning it into a sustainable energy centre.
:59:33. > :59:35.Mixed signals from Southeastern The rail operator hopes to extend its
:59:36. > :59:41.service in Kent but is at standstill in Sussex with much of the Hastings
:59:42. > :59:46.line now closed indefinitelx. After landslips three months ago. Hastings
:59:47. > :59:48.Council is worried about thd impact on tourism.
:59:49. > :59:52.It's a City Deal. Greater Brighton has signed up to government's City
:59:53. > :59:55.Deal scheme which aims to tdmpt tech industry investors down to Silicon
:59:56. > :59:59.Beach. It could be worth ?170 million.
:00:00. > :00:03.And Chartwell has a new reshdent. Jock is the sixth marmalade cat to
:00:04. > :00:08.move into Winston Churchill's home, as per his will.
:00:09. > :00:18.You get so many people coming in saying, "Where's the cat?"
:00:19. > :00:23.Michael Fallon, we know you are enthusiastic about fracking. Should
:00:24. > :00:32.it really happen in the South Downs to?
:00:33. > :00:39.They do have structural 's `` stricter rules but they shotld look
:00:40. > :00:45.at each application on its lerits. So yes in other words.
:00:46. > :00:51.Look at each application on its merits.
:00:52. > :00:55.Thank you to both my guests. That is it for this week.
:00:56. > :01:00.industrial action is a sign of failure marked success. -- not
:01:01. > :01:13.success. Andrew, back to you. Has George Osborne got a rabbit in
:01:14. > :01:16.his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor find a way to help the squeezed
:01:17. > :01:24.middle? And how do Labour respond? All questions for The Week Ahead.
:01:25. > :01:29.And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to discuss the budget is the general
:01:30. > :01:34.secretary of the Trades Union Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome
:01:35. > :01:37.back to the programme. I know the TUC has a submission, but if you
:01:38. > :01:43.could pick one thing that you wanted the Chancellor to do above all, what
:01:44. > :01:47.would it be? We want a budget for working people, which means we have
:01:48. > :01:52.to crack the long-term problem of investment in the British economy.
:01:53. > :01:59.Certainly I would like the Chancellor to merit that title they
:02:00. > :02:02.want of the new workers party, and take action on living standards but
:02:03. > :02:12.if they're going to do that it's got to be about unlocking investment. In
:02:13. > :02:15.the period where the economy has been flat-lining there has been
:02:16. > :02:19.little business investment, but there are signs towards the end of
:02:20. > :02:25.last year that it is beginning to pick up. But a long way to go. The
:02:26. > :02:27.problem is we have key industries like construction and manufacturing
:02:28. > :02:34.that are still smaller than they were before the recession. The
:02:35. > :02:39.government itself, of course, has slashed its own capital investment
:02:40. > :02:43.budget by half. There is plenty of good and important work that needs
:02:44. > :02:48.to be done from building houses to improving the transport system, to
:02:49. > :02:53.improving our schools. And the government really needs to pick up
:02:54. > :02:57.that shovel and start investing in our economy to get the decent jobs
:02:58. > :03:03.we need, the pay increases we need, and that in itself will help
:03:04. > :03:09.stimulate demand. It was Alistair Darling who cut in 2011, and it s
:03:10. > :03:13.interesting that Ed Balls in his plans for the next parliament would
:03:14. > :03:17.run a current budget surplus by the end of the parliament as opposed to
:03:18. > :03:22.George Osborne who would have an overall budget surplus. That gives
:03:23. > :03:25.Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to do what you talk about, but he is
:03:26. > :03:28.reticent to talk about it. He does not want to say that he has an
:03:29. > :03:31.opportunity to spend on investment because he fears if he says it he
:03:32. > :03:35.will be attacked by the Conservatives for being
:03:36. > :03:42.irresponsible. Why is business doing this? The recession was deeper than
:03:43. > :03:47.any since the war and the recovery was slower than almost any since the
:03:48. > :03:53.war. The lag, the time it takes to get over that is longer than anyone
:03:54. > :03:57.expected. I read the same evidence as you towards the end of last year
:03:58. > :04:01.pointing to money being released, and it depends what it is released
:04:02. > :04:05.on, whether it is capital investment or bringing in people on higher
:04:06. > :04:11.wages. The one surprise in the downturn is how well the employment
:04:12. > :04:14.figures have done, but they have not invested in new capacity and they
:04:15. > :04:18.are sitting on a lot of dosh. I looked at one set of figures that
:04:19. > :04:24.said if you took the biggest company in Britain, they have about 715
:04:25. > :04:28.billion pounds in corporate treasury -- the biggest companies. I think
:04:29. > :04:34.it's reduced a little but they are sitting on a mountain in dash of
:04:35. > :04:38.skills. Yes, but they're not investing in skills, wages, or
:04:39. > :04:44.sustainable jobs. The new jobs we have seen created since 2010, the
:04:45. > :04:49.vast majority of them have been in low paid industries, and they are
:04:50. > :04:52.often zero hours, or insecure, or part-time. So it's not delivering a
:04:53. > :04:58.recovery for ordinary working people. Government ministers, as you
:04:59. > :05:01.know when you lobby them, they are anxious to make out that they know
:05:02. > :05:07.the job is not done and the recovery has just begun, but the one bit they
:05:08. > :05:12.are privately proud of, although they can't explain it, is how many
:05:13. > :05:16.private-sector jobs have been created. A lot of unions have done
:05:17. > :05:19.sensible deals with employers to protect jobs through this period,
:05:20. > :05:24.but it's not sustainable. The average worker in Britain today is
:05:25. > :05:31.now ?2000 a year worse off in real terms than they were. On a pay
:05:32. > :05:39.against price comparison? It doesn't take into account tax cuts. The
:05:40. > :05:47.raising of the personal allowance is far outweighed by the raising VAT.
:05:48. > :05:50.Does the raising of the threshold which the Lib Dems are proud of and
:05:51. > :05:55.the Tories are trying to trade credit for, does it matter to your
:05:56. > :06:00.members? -- take credit for. It matters that it is eclipsed by the
:06:01. > :06:03.cuts in benefits and know what is conned any more. We're going to hear
:06:04. > :06:09.a lot about the raising of the allowance, but as long as the real
:06:10. > :06:13.value of work, tax credits, things like that, people won't feel it in
:06:14. > :06:16.their pocket, and they will find it harder and harder to look after
:06:17. > :06:20.their family. When you look at the other things that could take over
:06:21. > :06:24.from consumer spending which has driven the recovery, held by house
:06:25. > :06:27.price rising in the south, it is exports and business investment and
:06:28. > :06:32.you look at the state of the Eurozone and the emerging markets
:06:33. > :06:36.which are now in trouble, and the winter seems to have derailed the US
:06:37. > :06:43.recovery. It won't be exports. Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think
:06:44. > :06:47.that will contribute to growth until 2015 -- OBI. So the figures we
:06:48. > :06:55.should be looking at our business investment. And also the deficit.
:06:56. > :06:58.The deficit is 111 billion, and that is a problem, because we are not at
:06:59. > :07:03.the end of the cutting process, there are huge cuts to be made. I
:07:04. > :07:06.understand we are only a third of the way through. That will
:07:07. > :07:10.definitely affect business confidence. It is clear that the
:07:11. > :07:13.strategy has failed. Borrowing has gone up and it's not delivered
:07:14. > :07:21.improved living standards and better quality jobs, so cutting out of the
:07:22. > :07:24.recession is not going to work. The structural budget deficit was going
:07:25. > :07:30.to be eliminated three weeks today under the original plan. They missed
:07:31. > :07:36.target after target. Every economist has their own definition of that. I
:07:37. > :07:41.think Mark Carney is right when he says that fundamentally the economy
:07:42. > :07:45.is unbalanced and it is not sustainable, growth is not
:07:46. > :07:51.sustainable. But if it clicked on, it would be more balanced. It is not
:07:52. > :07:54.just north and south and manufacturing a way out with
:07:55. > :08:00.services, but it is also between the rich and everybody else. What do you
:08:01. > :08:03.make of the fact that there will effectively be another freezing
:08:04. > :08:11.public sector pay, or at least no more than 1%? Not even that for
:08:12. > :08:16.nurses and health workers. But they will get 3% progression pay. 70 of
:08:17. > :08:20.nurses will not get any pay rise at all. They get no progression pay at
:08:21. > :08:26.all. I think this is smack in the mouth. Smack in the mouth to
:08:27. > :08:31.dedicated health care workers who will feel very, very discontented
:08:32. > :08:36.about the decision. Danny Alexander, I saw him appealing to
:08:37. > :08:42.health workers do not move to strike ballots and said they should talk to
:08:43. > :08:48.their department. But about what? Is that real pay cut has been imposed,
:08:49. > :08:53.what are workers left with? So do you expect as a result of yet more
:08:54. > :08:58.tough controls on public sector pay that unrest is inevitable? I know
:08:59. > :09:03.some unions will be consulting with their members, but ultimately it's
:09:04. > :09:08.always members who decide what to do. It does seem to me insulting not
:09:09. > :09:17.to at least be honest and say that we are cutting real pay of nurses,
:09:18. > :09:20.health care workers, on the back of a ?3 billion reorganisation of the
:09:21. > :09:28.NHS that nobody wanted and nobody voted for. Their long-term changes
:09:29. > :09:32.taking place here that almost talks about -- there are long-term
:09:33. > :09:39.changes. It is how lower percentage wages have become of GDP on how big
:09:40. > :09:44.the percentage of profits is. It seems to me there is a strong case
:09:45. > :09:48.for some kind of realignment there. The biggest event of my life, in
:09:49. > :09:51.this world, is the entry of a couple of billion more people into the
:09:52. > :09:56.labour supply. At the end of the Cold War, India and China plugged
:09:57. > :10:00.into the global economy. If there is a greater supply of that factor of
:10:01. > :10:05.production, logically you conclude that wages will fall or stagnate and
:10:06. > :10:07.that has been the story in this country and America and large parts
:10:08. > :10:11.of Western Europe in the last generation. What is not possible is
:10:12. > :10:15.for governments to do much about it. They can ameliorate it at the
:10:16. > :10:19.margins, but the idea that the government controls living
:10:20. > :10:22.standards, which has become popular over the last six months, and the
:10:23. > :10:28.Labour Party have in establishing that, and I don't think it's true.
:10:29. > :10:32.George Osborne's options are astonishingly limited compared to
:10:33. > :10:36.public expectations. If wages have reached a modern record low as
:10:37. > :10:43.percentage of GDP, who is going to champion the wage earner? We have
:10:44. > :10:48.lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed away, so who is the champion? The
:10:49. > :10:52.trade union movement is the champion of ordinary workers. We need those
:10:53. > :11:00.larger-than-life figures that we will mess. Have you got them yet? We
:11:01. > :11:04.have a generation of workers coming through. One thing about the loss of
:11:05. > :11:08.Bob Crow is that the whole union movement has responded strongly to
:11:09. > :11:11.that, and we want to say that we are strong and united and here to stand
:11:12. > :11:16.up for working people and we will fight as hard as Bob Crow did.
:11:17. > :11:20.Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony Benn, we can be sure they will not
:11:21. > :11:24.come from Eton because they all have jobs in the government. I want to
:11:25. > :11:25.put up on the screen what even Michael Gove was saying about this
:11:26. > :11:40.coterie of Old Etonian 's. He's right, is he not? He's
:11:41. > :11:46.absolutely right. We have the idea of the manifesto being written by
:11:47. > :11:52.five people from Eton and one from Saint Pauls. A remarkable example of
:11:53. > :11:55.social mobility that George Osborne, who had the disadvantage of going to
:11:56. > :12:03.Saint Pauls has made it into that inner circle. Here is the question,
:12:04. > :12:06.what is Michael Gove up to? If you saw the response from George
:12:07. > :12:09.Osborne, there was no slap down and they know this is an area they are
:12:10. > :12:14.weak on an David Cameron will not comment on it. If this had been a
:12:15. > :12:19.Labour shadow minister making a similarly disloyal statement, they
:12:20. > :12:22.might have been shot at dawn. But there is a real tolerance from
:12:23. > :12:26.Michael Gove to go freelance which comes from George Osborne. It's
:12:27. > :12:29.about highlighting educational reforms that he wants to turn every
:12:30. > :12:33.school in to eat and so it won't happen in the future. But it's also
:12:34. > :12:37.pointing out who did not go to Eton school and who would be the best
:12:38. > :12:41.candidate to replace David Cameron as leader, George Osborne, and who
:12:42. > :12:45.did go to Eton school, Boris Johnson. Michael Gove is on
:12:46. > :12:52.manoeuvres to destroy Boris Johnson's chances of being leader.
:12:53. > :12:58.It's a good job they don't have an election to worry about. Hold on. I
:12:59. > :13:01.think they are out of touch with businesses as well as working
:13:02. > :13:05.people. You ask about who is talking about wage earners. Businesses are.
:13:06. > :13:10.They are worried that unless living standards rise again there will be
:13:11. > :13:16.nobody there to buy anything. We are running out of time, but the TUC,
:13:17. > :13:21.are enthusiastic about HS2? We supported. We think it's the kind of
:13:22. > :13:25.infrastructure project that we need to invest in long-term. He could, if
:13:26. > :13:29.we get it right, rebalance north and south and create good jobs along the
:13:30. > :13:36.way -- it could. Thank you very much tool. I have to say that every week
:13:37. > :13:39.-- thank you very much to you all. That's all for today. I'll be back
:13:40. > :13:44.next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at
:13:45. > :13:46.midday with the Daily Politics. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:47. > :13:49.Sunday Politics.