:00:38. > :00:45.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:46. > :00:49.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:50. > :00:53.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:54. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:59. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:03. > :01:06.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:07. > :01:10.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:11. > :01:22.And here: as voters go to the polls campaign trail, he has been
:01:23. > :01:24.across the region this Thursday, we across the region this Thursday, we
:01:25. > :01:35.elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's
:01:36. > :01:41.32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got
:01:42. > :01:48.all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it
:01:49. > :01:52.is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local
:01:53. > :01:55.elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are
:01:56. > :02:01.the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some
:02:02. > :02:04.say that these European and local elections will not be much of a
:02:05. > :02:11.pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political
:02:12. > :02:15.commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is
:02:16. > :02:17.at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European
:02:18. > :02:41.Parliament elections. These local results should be known
:02:42. > :02:47.by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the
:02:48. > :02:53.European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let
:02:54. > :02:57.it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced
:02:58. > :03:02.until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member
:03:03. > :03:05.states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this
:03:06. > :03:09.morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,
:03:10. > :03:14.and the general election is still wide open - we really are in
:03:15. > :03:18.uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,
:03:19. > :03:23.because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst
:03:24. > :03:26.those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times
:03:27. > :03:34.showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know
:03:35. > :03:38.that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the
:03:39. > :03:42.major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP
:03:43. > :03:47.success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has
:03:48. > :03:51.been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party
:03:52. > :03:56.is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next
:03:57. > :03:59.week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders
:04:00. > :04:04.who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick
:04:05. > :04:09.Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or
:04:10. > :04:12.four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he
:04:13. > :04:18.should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral
:04:19. > :04:23.force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a
:04:24. > :04:27.couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one
:04:28. > :04:32.who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr
:04:33. > :04:36.Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.
:04:37. > :04:43.The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his
:04:44. > :04:54.own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the
:04:55. > :04:59.Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly
:05:00. > :05:03.at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England
:05:04. > :05:08.has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England
:05:09. > :05:14.now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what
:05:15. > :05:17.the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,
:05:18. > :05:23.it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections
:05:24. > :05:29.began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they
:05:30. > :05:31.finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish
:05:32. > :05:35.runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on
:05:36. > :05:42.something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,
:05:43. > :05:47.France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first
:05:48. > :05:52.past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a
:05:53. > :05:56.situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the
:05:57. > :06:00.largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of
:06:01. > :06:03.seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two
:06:04. > :06:10.parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's
:06:11. > :06:15.speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP
:06:16. > :06:19.claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on
:06:20. > :06:24.Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become
:06:25. > :06:28.a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a
:06:29. > :06:35.grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are
:06:36. > :06:38.going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this
:06:39. > :06:44.earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we
:06:45. > :06:47.will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election
:06:48. > :06:51.manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and
:06:52. > :06:54.putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring
:06:55. > :06:57.Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of
:06:58. > :07:08.power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a
:07:09. > :07:12.referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up
:07:13. > :07:17.party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies
:07:18. > :07:21.created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them
:07:22. > :07:26.this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more
:07:27. > :07:29.robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other
:07:30. > :07:35.three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got
:07:36. > :07:42.nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this
:07:43. > :07:44.week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or
:07:45. > :07:48.Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on
:07:49. > :07:53.all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been
:07:54. > :07:56.involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am
:07:57. > :08:00.not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably
:08:01. > :08:03.needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any
:08:04. > :08:09.worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we
:08:10. > :08:13.do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they
:08:14. > :08:16.know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to
:08:17. > :08:23.far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a
:08:24. > :08:26.one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the
:08:27. > :08:33.headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a
:08:34. > :08:37.huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople
:08:38. > :08:40.across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably
:08:41. > :08:47.the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic
:08:48. > :08:52.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:53. > :08:57.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:58. > :09:04.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We
:09:05. > :09:10.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:11. > :09:14.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:15. > :09:20.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:21. > :09:24.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:25. > :09:29.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:30. > :09:33.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:34. > :09:39.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:40. > :09:45.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:46. > :09:53.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...
:09:54. > :09:56.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:57. > :10:01.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:02. > :10:09.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:10. > :10:13.put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government
:10:14. > :10:17.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,
:10:18. > :10:21.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:22. > :10:26.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:27. > :10:30.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:31. > :10:35.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:36. > :10:39.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:40. > :10:44.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:45. > :10:47.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:48. > :10:53.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:54. > :10:58.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:10:59. > :11:02.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:03. > :11:07.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:08. > :11:12.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:13. > :11:17.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:18. > :11:21.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:22. > :11:25.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:26. > :11:33.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:34. > :11:38.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:39. > :11:42.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:43. > :11:46.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:47. > :11:50.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:51. > :11:58.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:11:59. > :12:03.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:04. > :12:11.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it
:12:12. > :12:15.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:16. > :12:22.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:23. > :12:24.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:25. > :12:28.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:29. > :12:33.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:34. > :12:38.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:39. > :12:43.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:44. > :12:48.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:49. > :12:57.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:58. > :13:01.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:02. > :13:05.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:06. > :13:08.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:09. > :13:12.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:13. > :13:17.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:18. > :13:18.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:19. > :13:35.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:36. > :13:38.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:39. > :13:46.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:47. > :13:50.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:51. > :13:54.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:55. > :13:58.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:13:59. > :14:04.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:05. > :14:12.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:13. > :14:22.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:23. > :14:27.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:28. > :14:30.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:31. > :14:34.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:35. > :14:41.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:42. > :14:49.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:50. > :14:53.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:54. > :14:58.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:59. > :15:03.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:04. > :15:08.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:09. > :15:14.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:15. > :15:20.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:21. > :15:22.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:23. > :15:38.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:39. > :15:42.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:43. > :15:50.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:51. > :15:58.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:15:59. > :16:01.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:02. > :16:04.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:05. > :16:09.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:10. > :16:20.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:21. > :16:26.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:27. > :16:33.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:34. > :16:41.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:42. > :16:47.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:48. > :16:49.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:50. > :16:53.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:54. > :17:06.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:07. > :17:12.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:13. > :17:18.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:19. > :17:25.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:26. > :17:32.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:33. > :17:37.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:38. > :17:42.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:43. > :17:48.minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for
:17:49. > :17:56.something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home
:17:57. > :18:09.for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy
:18:10. > :18:15.elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack
:18:16. > :18:19.Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens
:18:20. > :18:29.used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went
:18:30. > :18:36.wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs
:18:37. > :18:40.and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these
:18:41. > :18:44.elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party
:18:45. > :18:51.calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making
:18:52. > :18:57.poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:58. > :19:04.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:05. > :19:08.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:09. > :19:15.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:16. > :19:18.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:19. > :19:25.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:26. > :19:28.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:29. > :19:33.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:34. > :19:40.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:41. > :19:47.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:48. > :19:56.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:57. > :20:00.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:01. > :20:06.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:07. > :20:09.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:10. > :20:17.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:18. > :20:22.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:23. > :20:28.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:29. > :20:34.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:35. > :20:38.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:39. > :20:44.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:45. > :20:49.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:50. > :20:59.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:21:00. > :21:03.we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is
:21:04. > :21:14.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:15. > :21:24.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:25. > :21:31.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:32. > :21:34.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:35. > :21:41.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:42. > :21:45.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:46. > :21:49.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:50. > :21:56.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:57. > :22:01.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:02. > :22:06.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:07. > :22:10.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:11. > :22:17.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:18. > :22:22.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:23. > :22:29.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:30. > :22:33.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:34. > :22:38.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:39. > :22:46.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:47. > :22:50.debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have
:22:51. > :22:56.that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city
:22:57. > :23:00.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:01. > :23:08.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:09. > :23:13.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:14. > :23:21.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:22. > :23:26.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:27. > :23:34.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:35. > :24:08.Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:09. > :24:18.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:19. > :24:23.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:24. > :24:28.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:29. > :24:34.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:35. > :24:39.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:40. > :24:43.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:44. > :24:50.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:51. > :24:56.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:57. > :25:00.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:01. > :25:06.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:07. > :25:10.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:11. > :25:15.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:16. > :25:19.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:20. > :25:25.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:26. > :25:31.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:32. > :25:38.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:39. > :25:42.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:43. > :25:46.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:47. > :25:57.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:58. > :26:02.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:03. > :26:10.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:11. > :26:13.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:14. > :26:19.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:20. > :26:29.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:30. > :26:34.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:35. > :26:39.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:40. > :26:49.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:50. > :26:54.shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:55. > :27:04.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:05. > :27:08.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:09. > :27:13.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:14. > :27:18.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:19. > :27:23.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:24. > :27:27.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:28. > :27:31.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:32. > :27:36.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:37. > :27:41.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:42. > :27:50.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:51. > :27:56.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:57. > :28:01.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:02. > :28:11.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:12. > :28:13.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:14. > :28:20.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:21. > :28:25.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:26. > :28:30.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:31. > :28:38.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:39. > :28:47.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:48. > :28:57.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:58. > :29:05.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:06. > :29:09.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:10. > :29:14.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:15. > :29:18.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:19. > :29:23.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:24. > :29:28.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:29. > :29:34.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:35. > :29:39.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:40. > :29:44.given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:45. > :29:49.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:50. > :29:59.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:30:00. > :30:03.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:04. > :30:08.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:09. > :30:12.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:13. > :30:16.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:17. > :30:20.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:21. > :30:25.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:26. > :30:29.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:30. > :30:36.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:37. > :30:41.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:42. > :30:46.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:47. > :30:50.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:51. > :30:54.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:55. > :30:58.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:59. > :31:09.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:10. > :31:16.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:17. > :31:19.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:20. > :31:25.half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:26. > :31:30.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:31. > :31:38.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:39. > :31:42.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:43. > :31:46.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:47. > :31:51.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:52. > :31:54.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:55. > :31:59.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:32:00. > :32:02.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:03. > :32:07.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:08. > :32:15.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:16. > :32:21.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:22. > :32:24.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:25. > :32:30.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:31. > :32:34.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:35. > :32:39.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:40. > :32:44.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:45. > :32:47.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:48. > :32:52.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:53. > :32:55.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:56. > :33:01.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:02. > :33:05.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:06. > :33:10.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We
:33:11. > :33:13.are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next
:33:14. > :33:17.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:18. > :33:24.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:25. > :33:31.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:32. > :33:37.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:38. > :33:40.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:41. > :33:49.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:50. > :33:55.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:56. > :34:00.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but
:34:01. > :34:04.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:05. > :34:11.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:12. > :34:15.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:16. > :34:20.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:21. > :34:24.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:25. > :34:27.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:28. > :34:32.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:33. > :34:35.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:36. > :34:41.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:42. > :34:52.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:53. > :34:58.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:59. > :35:04.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:05. > :35:07.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:08. > :35:12.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:13. > :35:15.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:16. > :35:21.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:22. > :35:24.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:25. > :35:29.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:30. > :35:33.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:34. > :35:37.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:38. > :35:42.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:43. > :35:46.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:47. > :35:54.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,
:35:55. > :35:59.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:36:00. > :36:03.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:04. > :36:07.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:08. > :36:13.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:14. > :36:18.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:19. > :36:22.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:23. > :36:27.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:28. > :36:33.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:34. > :36:40.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:41. > :36:43.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:44. > :36:50.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:51. > :36:56.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:57. > :37:03.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:04. > :37:06.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:07. > :37:09.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:10. > :37:16.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:17. > :37:27.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:28. > :37:32.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:33. > :37:36.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:37. > :37:39.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:40. > :37:43.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:44. > :37:46.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:47. > :37:50.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:51. > :37:56.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:57. > :37:59.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:38:00. > :38:02.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:03. > :38:09.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:10. > :38:16.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:17. > :38:21.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:22. > :38:24.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:25. > :38:44.Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up Hello. This is the Sunday Politics
:38:45. > :38:49.in the south`east. Coming up later, Nick wants as in, it does to, Nigel
:38:50. > :38:55.says we should definitely leave and David wants a referendum. We are
:38:56. > :39:00.discussing the pros and cons of our membership of the European Union.
:39:01. > :39:06.This is the third in our series of special election programmes. This
:39:07. > :39:11.week we are turning our attention to the Conservatives and UKIP and
:39:12. > :39:20.asking how they both may fear. Richard Haass worse `` Ashworth and
:39:21. > :39:28.Janice Atkinson are with me. You have just spent weeks campaigning,
:39:29. > :39:35.how has it been? What is the level of interest from the public?
:39:36. > :39:40.Politicians started the campaign in January this year. The level of
:39:41. > :39:46.public awareness has grown markedly over the last few weeks. There are
:39:47. > :39:54.expectations and awareness. People are talking about it. Is the
:39:55. > :40:01.attention that Nigel Farage has been getting the link people in? Issues
:40:02. > :40:04.like the referendum, the Greens and Liberal Democrats and all others are
:40:05. > :40:14.raising. Everybody has worked on this campaign. We are not expecting
:40:15. > :40:21.a huge turnout, 37% is the best according to the polls. Do people
:40:22. > :40:26.really care about Europe? I think this election is different to
:40:27. > :40:33.others, people really do care. On the streets campaigning we have
:40:34. > :40:38.about 50% interest. This week 90% of the people, very few are not
:40:39. > :40:50.actually voting. We have driven the debate on this. Do you think we will
:40:51. > :40:55.get more than 37%? I think so. The usual turnout is usually
:40:56. > :41:00.considerably lower than that. It is better than local elections very
:41:01. > :41:08.often. It is way better than the American mid`term elections. It will
:41:09. > :41:15.be interesting to see next week. Currently the Conservatives have the
:41:16. > :41:21.most MEPs in this region. If Nigel Farage is correct in his opinion
:41:22. > :41:29.that his party will top the poll, it could be that everything is about to
:41:30. > :41:34.change. Bygone Folkestone with smart shopping streets and plush hotels.
:41:35. > :41:44.The bustling resort and gateway to Europe. But it has been a town in
:41:45. > :41:50.decline. A slow slide that began after the war. One thing that has
:41:51. > :41:57.not changed is who represents this area in Westminster. We have had a
:41:58. > :42:04.Conservative MP for decades but no UKIP are threatening a political
:42:05. > :42:11.earthquake. This time could be at the epicentre of political change.
:42:12. > :42:17.Good Thursday's local and European elections see UKIP deliver a hammer
:42:18. > :42:22.blow to the Tory heartland in the south`east? The Conservative Party
:42:23. > :42:27.currently has five MEPs and controls all but one of the six local
:42:28. > :42:35.councils going to the polls. UKIP does not hold any of the council but
:42:36. > :42:38.does have one MEP, Nigel Farage, they are currently the official
:42:39. > :42:47.opposition on Kent County Council. UKIP says the Conservatives are
:42:48. > :42:51.losing their grip on the Southeast. People are fed up with weakness and
:42:52. > :42:58.false promises. They are listening to us, they like what they hear. Our
:42:59. > :43:06.views are very much in line with the years. I know people are frustrated
:43:07. > :43:15.by their politicians. The Conservatives say a stable economy
:43:16. > :43:22.is key to success. All voters are interested in the success of the
:43:23. > :43:24.economic recovery. UKIP to make breakthroughs in the county
:43:25. > :43:40.elections last time but now they have councillors who will be judged
:43:41. > :43:45.on their record. The Lib Dems are stressing the importance of
:43:46. > :43:50.Thursday's vote. If people play with fire by voting for UKIP it could do
:43:51. > :43:57.immense damage to Britain for quite a long time. People should cast
:43:58. > :44:02.their votes tearfully. There are bishops plans for redevelopment in
:44:03. > :44:08.Folkestone, transforming the front, creating jobs and boosting the
:44:09. > :44:15.economy. Some of the coastal towns are turning their backs on Tories. I
:44:16. > :44:23.am not thrilled with this. UKIP are you in this part of England. There
:44:24. > :44:30.was a big change a year ago. There was only one conservative left, for
:44:31. > :44:37.went to UKIP and along the coast from here there was a green beacon
:44:38. > :44:43.of sanity where I got elected. One academic says British politics could
:44:44. > :44:50.be about to undergo its biggest change since the Second World War.
:44:51. > :44:55.UKIP could transform from a small party to something that looks much
:44:56. > :45:07.rigour and could become the biggest third. It is an interesting
:45:08. > :45:10.election. `` looks much bigger. Labour maintains its economic
:45:11. > :45:22.fortunes could be about to change. Could there be a political story
:45:23. > :45:29.being played out? A Green councillor was also saying that people are
:45:30. > :45:36.angry with your lot and that is why they are turning to UKIP. We will
:45:37. > :45:42.stand on our record. There is growth in the economy, jobs and business.
:45:43. > :45:47.That cannot be bad. In Europe we stand on our record, we have cut the
:45:48. > :45:52.budget, redirected spending on the budget and protected British
:45:53. > :45:59.taxpayers from having to bail out the Eurozone. It has been a very
:46:00. > :46:05.difficult time. Things are tough. We have gone through the deepest
:46:06. > :46:11.recession since the 1930s. But actually, Judge us on our record,
:46:12. > :46:14.who has put the economy right? Look at the economy of Europe for the
:46:15. > :46:23.first time in history? That was ours. You could lose your seat next
:46:24. > :46:29.week, do you think that message is really getting through to people? In
:46:30. > :46:35.elections, we politicians stand on our record of what we have achieved
:46:36. > :46:39.in the past. We promised the public what we will do for them in the
:46:40. > :46:43.future. You are putting us up against the party which has no
:46:44. > :46:52.achievements in the past and no plans for the future. The
:46:53. > :46:57.Conservatives appear to be making a bit of a comeback in the last couple
:46:58. > :47:04.of weeks but you are still neck and neck and it does look likely Nigel
:47:05. > :47:08.Farage will take significant gains. That is for the electorate to
:47:09. > :47:18.determine and we have another week to go. How much damage it your tent
:47:19. > :47:25.youth leader do your party? She said you deliberately attract the racist
:47:26. > :47:33.vote. The silly girl likes the limelight. She likes publicity and
:47:34. > :47:39.going on the leaflets. She has never delivered a leaflet for me in Kent.
:47:40. > :47:46.She has never campaigned. Doesn't this show you are attracting the
:47:47. > :47:53.wrong people who will let you down? We have got a tiny minority. We have
:47:54. > :48:01.2000 councillors across the country and there is a tiny minority in the
:48:02. > :48:04.spotlight. We do not have the resources. We are the only people
:48:05. > :48:13.who do not allow the BNP to stand with us. There are ex`BNP
:48:14. > :48:20.councillors serving Labour. We do not allow those people to join us, I
:48:21. > :48:28.personally sacked to people who I find out about. There was the lot of
:48:29. > :48:34.attention, not much of it positive, you said there were no go areas in
:48:35. > :48:39.Kent because of eastern European gangs. It was said that it is
:48:40. > :48:45.shocking, jumping on the bandwagon. It was said you should be sacked
:48:46. > :48:49.because those kinds of words are inflammatory. It is the only way
:48:50. > :48:55.these people can get publicity. The Lib Dems will be toast at this
:48:56. > :49:00.election. If you go down to Folkestone East and areas in
:49:01. > :49:06.Gravesend, there are no go areas. I have spoken to the police about it
:49:07. > :49:12.and told them my concerns. You saw what happened one week ago when we
:49:13. > :49:16.had the raids on the Slovak Roma. When the immigration figures came
:49:17. > :49:21.out this week they said it has gone backwards. This week I was told by
:49:22. > :49:25.the border agency there are ten to 12 coachloads coming through each
:49:26. > :49:33.day with the road of children in there. The children's surnames do
:49:34. > :49:39.not match up with the adults. I am concerned about people trafficking.
:49:40. > :49:45.Those are the parts where her party is picking up a lot of support. Is
:49:46. > :49:50.she not making a point that is resounding with the electorate?
:49:51. > :49:56.There is something they play unattractive about appealing to this
:49:57. > :50:02.racist sentiment. It is not racist, I take exception to that. You stand
:50:03. > :50:09.in the middle of Maidstone and you do not see a coloured face. You
:50:10. > :50:16.cannot all the electorate out their racist. That is what you are doing
:50:17. > :50:22.by calling us racist. Nigel Farage is seen as very popular. You become
:50:23. > :50:28.distanced from them. Isn't that a problem for all the parties? The
:50:29. > :50:34.whole issue is to connect with the public. It is always perceived that
:50:35. > :50:40.Europe is over there, out of touch and unresponsive to public demand. I
:50:41. > :50:44.think that is a shame. We need to find new ways of connecting with the
:50:45. > :50:49.public. Whether in the European Union or out of it completely it is
:50:50. > :50:55.still immensely important to a country like the UK. You are running
:50:56. > :51:03.out of time, you only have a few days to go. Yes, it is a shame. You
:51:04. > :51:05.said turnout would be law. It is an important election with important
:51:06. > :51:16.issues and people should come out and vote. `` low. Many candidates
:51:17. > :51:24.standing, including Janice, don't think the UK should belong to the
:51:25. > :51:33.EU. Here is James Fitzgerald with a round`up of the positions. Dave
:51:34. > :51:38.wants in but says you will be given a vote on whether we will stay or
:51:39. > :51:43.both. He wants to be negotiate membership over issues like
:51:44. > :51:52.immigration. Nigel is firmly out. He says the EU is undemocratic,
:51:53. > :51:58.expensive and bossy. Nick is a definite in. He said the EU is good
:51:59. > :52:04.for British jobs, trade and crime`fighting. It is pretty happy
:52:05. > :52:13.being in so long as the UK does not lose any powers. He says the EU is
:52:14. > :52:20.economically worthwhile. The Green party says yes to a reformed
:52:21. > :52:24.European Union, moving away from trade and competition but towards
:52:25. > :52:32.environmental sustainability. The want you to vote on it. We are
:52:33. > :52:36.joined for this discussion by an MEP in the south`east. Will it be good
:52:37. > :52:45.or bad for this region if we left the EU? It would be disastrous for
:52:46. > :52:51.the university sector, the science sector, small businesses, the
:52:52. > :52:57.economy as a whole and for jobs and opportunities. We need to understand
:52:58. > :53:03.that Europe is a two`way street. British people have the freedom to
:53:04. > :53:06.work and settle anywhere they want in Europe. People have the
:53:07. > :53:13.opportunity to take jobs, whether summer jobs or permanent jobs, any
:53:14. > :53:16.where in the European Union. It is a denial of opportunity to even
:53:17. > :53:28.suggest we should leave the European Union. Argue in agreement? Yes, I
:53:29. > :53:33.am. Europe is very important to Britain and the south`east.
:53:34. > :53:39.Universities, travel sector, industry, all are extremely
:53:40. > :53:45.important and to this region. But it has got to change. That is the
:53:46. > :53:49.message we are giving. That matters to the United Kingdom even if we
:53:50. > :53:55.were not members of the European Union well over 50% of our experts
:53:56. > :54:02.`` exports go there. That is a lot of jobs. The Chief Executive of the
:54:03. > :54:12.British Airways said this week you have got to be in it to win it. And
:54:13. > :54:19.you want out, why? Only 5% of our businesses export to Europe anyway.
:54:20. > :54:28.100% of our businesses are subject to really damaging laws. It is all
:54:29. > :54:34.to do with elliptical union with the others. It is trade that we need and
:54:35. > :54:40.prior to Lisbon we can have our free trade agreements. There are 2.2
:54:41. > :54:45.billion Commonwealth countries out there. We can have a free`trade
:54:46. > :54:51.agreement with China. One trade commissioner across the EU, or she
:54:52. > :54:56.has to represent 28 states, one size does not fit all. Research shows
:54:57. > :55:04.that the general public want to stay in, more than the past two years and
:55:05. > :55:12.they are worried that Europe is not a big issue for them, it is not in
:55:13. > :55:18.the top ten. It is always about the economy, the economy can grow if we
:55:19. > :55:25.leave the EU. We can have free trade agreements with the rest of the
:55:26. > :55:29.world. Yes, we want to trade with our European art is but we will
:55:30. > :55:32.invoke Article 50 in the Lisbon Treaty and those free trade
:55:33. > :55:41.agreements we had prior to that will still be in situ. A lot of people in
:55:42. > :55:44.your party agreed. Why would it be any different from the trade
:55:45. > :55:50.agreement you have now? Diane macro because it is too restrictive. There
:55:51. > :56:03.are protective policies for eastern Europe. My business has traded with
:56:04. > :56:07.companies all over Europe. We are a very small company. We would never
:56:08. > :56:15.have had the opportunity to do that if we had tariff barriers, customs
:56:16. > :56:19.agreement and all of those things to deal with. Realistically I want to
:56:20. > :56:28.see businesses with the opportunity of a market to grow. You need access
:56:29. > :56:36.to markets and worldwide trade agreements as bigger organisations.
:56:37. > :56:40.There is an element of trickle`down. You could argue that thanks to the
:56:41. > :56:44.Coalition Government things are much better than they have been for a
:56:45. > :56:50.long time. People are not going to take the risk of losing jobs and
:56:51. > :57:01.economic benefits. 17.5% of jobs in the south`east depend on the UK more
:57:02. > :57:04.than they did in 1997. We will have to put our case and the others will
:57:05. > :57:12.need to put their case. If we actually come out then there will be
:57:13. > :57:19.4 million jobs created. Not 3.5 million lost. On the one side of
:57:20. > :57:23.that argument you have people like British Airways and virgin this
:57:24. > :57:29.week, the CBI and the university sector, the City of London this week
:57:30. > :57:33.all saying they want to be in the EU. On the other side of the skill
:57:34. > :57:40.you have Nigel Farage, which side are you on? Thank you for joining
:57:41. > :57:44.us. We have spoken to our free election programmes, to
:57:45. > :57:49.representatives of each of the main political parties in the south`east
:57:50. > :57:56.but there are also some smaller parties and we asked them to tell us
:57:57. > :58:01.a bit about their campaigns. The EU has taken our sovereignty and
:58:02. > :58:07.reduces us to second`class citizens. There is no doubt that the EU is a
:58:08. > :58:14.black hole that takes taxpayers money. Instead of creating peace we
:58:15. > :58:19.have recession and instead of democracy we have bureaucracy. We
:58:20. > :58:24.would choose to leave the European Union right now based on high levels
:58:25. > :58:29.of corruption and low levels of democracy. The EU seems to be almost
:58:30. > :58:32.wilfully walking away from a Christian heritage which many
:58:33. > :58:38.nations were built upon. Some parties which support withdrawal
:58:39. > :58:44.from Europe will not go to Brussels to work but we will. While he has
:58:45. > :58:48.been a member of the European Parliament our member has constantly
:58:49. > :58:55.highlighted the corruption he found within it. He also played a part in
:58:56. > :59:01.the British government in not going forward in a war with Syria. If one
:59:02. > :59:08.MEP can be that influential, imagine the influence that Kenwood. Peaceful
:59:09. > :59:14.coexistence has existed in Europe for many years past, this supports
:59:15. > :59:18.that. Our party would build on that success story by scaling down the
:59:19. > :59:25.military, firstly in smaller countries and then later with all
:59:26. > :59:29.countries in the union. We are the equivalent to the Scottish National
:59:30. > :59:34.party and Plaid Cymru in England. In terms of standing, we are concerned
:59:35. > :59:41.about the rise of extreme Islam in England. Now to Chardy law in
:59:42. > :59:46.England. We are also concerned about mass immigration so it is English
:59:47. > :59:52.jobs for English workers as far as we are concerned. We are the most
:59:53. > :59:59.democratic party in this country, with no leaders, we use every
:00:00. > :00:03.opportunity to put forward our analysis and proposition which is a
:00:04. > :00:07.revolutionary change in society from one which is produced solely for the
:00:08. > :00:18.profit of the tiny minority to one which produces solely human needs.
:00:19. > :00:22.`` provides solely for human needs. So we will end with a big
:00:23. > :00:35.prediction, will you still be an MEP in one week? Tell macro yes. I think
:00:36. > :00:39.so. That is confident. The macro and I think they will have MEPs which
:00:40. > :00:46.will actually turn up and do the job. That was the third of our
:00:47. > :00:55.special election programmes. My thanks to our guests. We will be
:00:56. > :01:02.back next week. In the meantime BBC Radio has a European election debate
:01:03. > :01:09.which you can hear tomorrow morning between nine and ten. I will be here
:01:10. > :01:15.on BBC One with bulletins overnight on Thursday after the polls close.
:01:16. > :01:17.If you want more information on the elections in the meantime go to our
:01:18. > :01:28.website. Goodbye. thank you very much indeed. Back to
:01:29. > :01:42.Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always
:01:43. > :01:47.insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own
:01:48. > :01:53.parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take
:01:54. > :01:58.them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer look. First up, how the
:01:59. > :02:03.votes might fall for the European Parliament. Back in January, Labour
:02:04. > :02:09.looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.
:02:10. > :02:12.According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into
:02:13. > :02:18.place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar
:02:19. > :02:35.picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by
:02:36. > :02:39.the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a
:02:40. > :02:43.long time. It keeps us in a job! We are joined now by the managing
:02:44. > :02:49.director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the
:02:50. > :02:52.polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to
:02:53. > :02:58.do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are
:02:59. > :03:02.going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high
:03:03. > :03:08.turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply
:03:09. > :03:12.not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on
:03:13. > :03:15.those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really
:03:16. > :03:21.benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,
:03:22. > :03:32.with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives
:03:33. > :03:35.them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are
:03:36. > :03:39.either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?
:03:40. > :03:46.Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.
:03:47. > :03:53.Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on
:03:54. > :04:04.Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What
:04:05. > :04:13.does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it
:04:14. > :04:19.change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,
:04:20. > :04:24.how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.
:04:25. > :04:29.Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and
:04:30. > :04:30.more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming
:04:31. > :04:39.fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does
:04:40. > :04:45.the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether
:04:46. > :04:49.UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote
:04:50. > :04:52.share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did
:04:53. > :04:55.vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming
:04:56. > :05:02.from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is
:05:03. > :05:05.that ultimately, every single establishment party should be
:05:06. > :05:10.worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really
:05:11. > :05:13.do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on
:05:14. > :05:20.their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there
:05:21. > :05:26.is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's
:05:27. > :05:30.right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that
:05:31. > :05:35.they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like
:05:36. > :05:39.immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political
:05:40. > :05:43.parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest
:05:44. > :05:51.that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be
:05:52. > :05:58.right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I
:05:59. > :06:01.would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this
:06:02. > :06:04.one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because
:06:05. > :06:08.of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder
:06:09. > :06:15.whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of
:06:16. > :06:19.Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about
:06:20. > :06:24.voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely
:06:25. > :06:28.to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We
:06:29. > :06:36.underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I
:06:37. > :06:41.think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other
:06:42. > :06:44.standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in
:06:45. > :06:49.Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you
:06:50. > :06:55.would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,
:06:56. > :07:00.then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on
:07:01. > :07:05.Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel
:07:06. > :07:09.Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted
:07:10. > :07:15.to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you
:07:16. > :07:18.have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.
:07:19. > :07:24.The really big question which we want to take out of these elections
:07:25. > :07:28.is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the
:07:29. > :07:31.Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of
:07:32. > :07:40.them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel
:07:41. > :07:43.Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to
:07:44. > :07:47.vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem
:07:48. > :07:51.for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many
:07:52. > :07:56.Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital
:07:57. > :08:02.home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,
:08:03. > :08:05.and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local
:08:06. > :08:12.election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not
:08:13. > :08:16.know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote
:08:17. > :08:20.in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in
:08:21. > :08:24.exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,
:08:25. > :08:29.I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in
:08:30. > :08:33.the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is
:08:34. > :08:39.crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well
:08:40. > :08:44.UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is
:08:45. > :08:49.about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell
:08:50. > :08:54.yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will
:08:55. > :09:07.have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the
:09:08. > :09:13.screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could
:09:14. > :09:18.be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the
:09:19. > :09:22.mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And
:09:23. > :09:27.there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in
:09:28. > :09:30.the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There
:09:31. > :09:38.are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an
:09:39. > :09:46.honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If
:09:47. > :09:51.Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is
:09:52. > :09:55.nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't
:09:56. > :10:04.there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could
:10:05. > :10:08.happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be
:10:09. > :10:12.replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have
:10:13. > :10:17.to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David
:10:18. > :10:21.Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the
:10:22. > :10:26.right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is
:10:27. > :10:31.quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find
:10:32. > :10:36.the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories
:10:37. > :10:39.want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are
:10:40. > :10:45.right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big
:10:46. > :10:48.thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris
:10:49. > :10:53.Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the
:10:54. > :11:01.chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But
:11:02. > :11:04.where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called
:11:05. > :11:08.Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.
:11:09. > :11:12.And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not
:11:13. > :11:18.lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And
:11:19. > :11:21.some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,
:11:22. > :11:24.Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression
:11:25. > :11:30.that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed
:11:31. > :11:34.Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this
:11:35. > :11:38.rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although
:11:39. > :11:45.that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in
:11:46. > :11:49.the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the
:11:50. > :11:53.economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on
:11:54. > :11:58.your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference
:11:59. > :12:02.between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was
:12:03. > :12:08.elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue.
:12:09. > :12:11.The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power
:12:12. > :12:15.when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.
:12:16. > :12:20.Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -
:12:21. > :12:25.Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David
:12:26. > :12:32.Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that
:12:33. > :12:38.matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like
:12:39. > :12:42.Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who
:12:43. > :12:45.you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,
:12:46. > :12:50.the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not
:12:51. > :12:57.changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.
:12:58. > :13:03.Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing
:13:04. > :13:08.about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to
:13:09. > :13:13.use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you
:13:14. > :13:16.all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election
:13:17. > :13:21.coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of
:13:22. > :13:24.course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily
:13:25. > :13:28.Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next
:13:29. > :13:32.Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it
:13:33. > :13:39.is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.