:00:38. > :00:43.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:44. > :00:50.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:51. > :00:53.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:54. > :00:59.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:00. > :01:03.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:04. > :01:13.In the south`east, the polls are henhouse.
:01:14. > :01:16.In the south`east, the polls are closed and the votes have been
:01:17. > :01:16.counted. We found through the winners
:01:17. > :01:21.hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.
:01:22. > :01:29.More analysis in just over half an hour.
:01:30. > :01:38.Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --
:01:39. > :01:42.bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The
:01:43. > :01:47.Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of
:01:48. > :01:51.the losses in previous years, the local government base has been
:01:52. > :01:53.whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European
:01:54. > :01:57.Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are
:01:58. > :02:03.announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats
:02:04. > :02:07.have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West
:02:08. > :02:14.Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked
:02:15. > :02:18.incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is
:02:19. > :02:25.perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you
:02:26. > :02:32.trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core
:02:33. > :02:35.values of our party. This is how the party president
:02:36. > :02:43.responded. At this time, it would be foolish
:02:44. > :02:47.for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us
:02:48. > :02:51.from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,
:02:52. > :02:57.we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The
:02:58. > :03:02.major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike
:03:03. > :03:12.the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.
:03:13. > :03:18.Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different
:03:19. > :03:23.people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own
:03:24. > :03:26.activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at
:03:27. > :03:32.holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some
:03:33. > :03:35.people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should
:03:36. > :03:40.stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible
:03:41. > :03:45.Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my
:03:46. > :03:51.conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to
:03:52. > :03:58.my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open
:03:59. > :04:04.mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my
:04:05. > :04:09.mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can
:04:10. > :04:15.assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going
:04:16. > :04:21.to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must
:04:22. > :04:25.have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your
:04:26. > :04:30.members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up
:04:31. > :04:34.using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not
:04:35. > :04:39.allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get
:04:40. > :04:44.constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.
:04:45. > :04:49.I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also
:04:50. > :04:54.concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how
:04:55. > :05:01.parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of
:05:02. > :05:05.school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for
:05:06. > :05:10.those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch
:05:11. > :05:15.pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want
:05:16. > :05:19.a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that
:05:20. > :05:24.say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are
:05:25. > :05:29.issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with
:05:30. > :05:35.what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we
:05:36. > :05:41.should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less
:05:42. > :05:46.control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what
:05:47. > :05:50.UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,
:05:51. > :05:57.which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.
:05:58. > :06:01.There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry
:06:02. > :06:06.about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.
:06:07. > :06:11.You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg
:06:12. > :06:17.to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am
:06:18. > :06:22.more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right
:06:23. > :06:26.things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the
:06:27. > :06:30.country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student
:06:31. > :06:37.finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which
:06:38. > :06:39.was to get a better system, more students are going to university,
:06:40. > :06:44.and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.
:06:45. > :06:50.But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It
:06:51. > :06:55.depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,
:06:56. > :07:01.I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing
:07:02. > :07:08.to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost
:07:09. > :07:14.300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable
:07:15. > :07:17.and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to
:07:18. > :07:24.we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,
:07:25. > :07:30.and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking
:07:31. > :07:33.away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor
:07:34. > :07:38.is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do
:07:39. > :07:43.they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is
:07:44. > :07:47.reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had
:07:48. > :07:52.towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.
:07:53. > :07:59.And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.
:08:00. > :08:03.Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has
:08:04. > :08:08.transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had
:08:09. > :08:11.it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest
:08:12. > :08:17.party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it
:08:18. > :08:22.all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would
:08:23. > :08:27.look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are
:08:28. > :08:32.seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a
:08:33. > :08:36.Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have
:08:37. > :08:41.never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they
:08:42. > :08:49.are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?
:08:50. > :08:53.-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a
:08:54. > :09:02.business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is
:09:03. > :09:07.Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his
:09:08. > :09:09.best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person
:09:10. > :09:18.who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on
:09:19. > :09:22.this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of
:09:23. > :09:29.government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no
:09:30. > :09:33.overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.
:09:34. > :09:39.They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour
:09:40. > :09:45.Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and
:09:46. > :09:52.sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am
:09:53. > :09:55.every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was
:09:56. > :10:04.like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not
:10:05. > :10:09.provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug
:10:10. > :10:17.and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the
:10:18. > :10:21.next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are
:10:22. > :10:25.finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the
:10:26. > :10:29.show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could
:10:30. > :10:32.not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves
:10:33. > :10:38.to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work
:10:39. > :10:47.out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.
:10:48. > :10:54.Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in
:10:55. > :10:57.charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,
:10:58. > :11:02.working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the
:11:03. > :11:09.results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of
:11:10. > :11:14.activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.
:11:15. > :11:18.What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital
:11:19. > :11:22.dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of
:11:23. > :11:25.accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of
:11:26. > :11:28.the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are
:11:29. > :11:35.coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined
:11:36. > :11:42.David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election
:11:43. > :11:46.centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things
:11:47. > :11:50.have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will
:11:51. > :11:55.see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,
:11:56. > :12:00.and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old
:12:01. > :12:04.messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper
:12:05. > :12:08.exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.
:12:09. > :12:11.In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get
:12:12. > :12:18.in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a
:12:19. > :12:24.rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but
:12:25. > :12:29.they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel
:12:30. > :12:33.Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best
:12:34. > :12:38.form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP
:12:39. > :12:43.and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious
:12:44. > :12:49.proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on
:12:50. > :12:54.board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but
:12:55. > :12:58.they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success
:12:59. > :13:02.story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at
:13:03. > :13:08.those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you
:13:09. > :13:11.shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,
:13:12. > :13:18.that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general
:13:19. > :13:22.election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,
:13:23. > :13:28.on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not
:13:29. > :13:35.to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has
:13:36. > :13:39.been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will
:13:40. > :13:43.still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the
:13:44. > :13:47.second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it
:13:48. > :13:52.is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have
:13:53. > :13:58.taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the
:13:59. > :14:02.next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under
:14:03. > :14:08.the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in
:14:09. > :14:11.government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single
:14:12. > :14:16.Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,
:14:17. > :14:32.who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?
:14:33. > :14:40.Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not
:14:41. > :14:46.enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around
:14:47. > :14:52.Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council
:14:53. > :15:01.wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked
:15:02. > :15:06.on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead
:15:07. > :15:15.and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to
:15:16. > :15:20.Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national
:15:21. > :15:25.share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,
:15:26. > :15:32.only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in
:15:33. > :15:35.2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about
:15:36. > :15:45.what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken
:15:46. > :15:50.away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You
:15:51. > :15:56.are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst
:15:57. > :16:01.defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters
:16:02. > :16:06.is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the
:16:07. > :16:10.presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the
:16:11. > :16:14.local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true
:16:15. > :16:18.that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because
:16:19. > :16:26.you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest
:16:27. > :16:29.of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because
:16:30. > :16:35.London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the
:16:36. > :16:39.warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting
:16:40. > :16:43.up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down
:16:44. > :16:52.the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was
:16:53. > :17:05.particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear
:17:06. > :17:11.before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote
:17:12. > :17:16.for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said
:17:17. > :17:20.London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest
:17:21. > :17:25.of the country. One of the things that is different from London as
:17:26. > :17:29.opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few
:17:30. > :17:36.thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go
:17:37. > :17:41.and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had
:17:42. > :17:46.to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse
:17:47. > :17:51.voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live
:17:52. > :17:57.there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass
:17:58. > :18:07.uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in
:18:08. > :18:11.next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't
:18:12. > :18:19.end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.
:18:20. > :18:25.What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral
:18:26. > :18:31.superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do
:18:32. > :18:35.not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is
:18:36. > :18:39.getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem
:18:40. > :18:48.according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote
:18:49. > :18:54.is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband
:18:55. > :19:02.have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very
:19:03. > :19:13.well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned
:19:14. > :19:17.some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation
:19:18. > :19:21.is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims
:19:22. > :19:29.there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own
:19:30. > :19:34.cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't
:19:35. > :19:46.know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could
:19:47. > :19:50.have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking
:19:51. > :20:01.better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are
:20:02. > :20:05.all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may
:20:06. > :20:11.be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their
:20:12. > :20:15.children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you
:20:16. > :20:18.ask people about their future and their children's future and
:20:19. > :20:24.prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you
:20:25. > :20:30.in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP
:20:31. > :20:37.and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be
:20:38. > :20:42.with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you
:20:43. > :20:45.put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with
:20:46. > :20:50.the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they
:20:51. > :20:54.are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are
:20:55. > :20:59.going to back to the three main parties in general election. It
:21:00. > :21:07.would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have
:21:08. > :21:16.said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for
:21:17. > :21:24.granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our
:21:25. > :21:31.strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal
:21:32. > :21:36.with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to
:21:37. > :21:42.burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win
:21:43. > :21:47.Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being
:21:48. > :21:55.the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and
:21:56. > :22:04.end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to
:22:05. > :22:11.go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't
:22:12. > :22:14.vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we
:22:15. > :22:22.need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great
:22:23. > :22:29.crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have
:22:30. > :22:38.you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It
:22:39. > :22:44.is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set
:22:45. > :22:48.for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,
:22:49. > :22:54.an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have
:22:55. > :22:58.an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their
:22:59. > :23:09.rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,
:23:10. > :23:14.hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a
:23:15. > :23:23.member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were
:23:24. > :23:28.you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important
:23:29. > :23:38.interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on
:23:39. > :23:43.there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.
:23:44. > :23:49.So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,
:23:50. > :23:53.because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that
:23:54. > :23:58.interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and
:23:59. > :24:09.I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy
:24:10. > :24:18.with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our
:24:19. > :24:23.boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time
:24:24. > :24:28.tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just
:24:29. > :24:34.count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my
:24:35. > :24:37.party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing
:24:38. > :24:42.country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able
:24:43. > :24:47.to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of
:24:48. > :24:55.overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former
:24:56. > :25:00.deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000
:25:01. > :25:04.voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that
:25:05. > :25:09.will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26
:25:10. > :25:20.constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would
:25:21. > :25:26.support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of
:25:27. > :25:35.6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That
:25:36. > :25:43.implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in
:25:44. > :25:51.second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.
:25:52. > :25:56.Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP
:25:57. > :26:00.supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched
:26:01. > :26:04.from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
:26:05. > :26:11.The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft
:26:12. > :26:16.Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal
:26:17. > :26:20.constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an
:26:21. > :26:28.election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went
:26:29. > :26:32.through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a
:26:33. > :26:39.number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is
:26:40. > :26:43.Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a
:26:44. > :26:47.snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be
:26:48. > :26:52.improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are
:26:53. > :26:56.fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead
:26:57. > :27:04.in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The
:27:05. > :27:08.Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking
:27:09. > :27:12.dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a
:27:13. > :27:22.no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.
:27:23. > :27:28.Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the
:27:29. > :27:32.largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are
:27:33. > :27:39.smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a
:27:40. > :27:46.single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors
:27:47. > :27:51.in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any
:27:52. > :27:56.of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England
:27:57. > :28:00.than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did
:28:01. > :28:05.vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many
:28:06. > :28:10.of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will
:28:11. > :28:15.bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,
:28:16. > :28:21.but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the
:28:22. > :28:26.Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the
:28:27. > :28:31.electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I
:28:32. > :28:36.believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I
:28:37. > :28:40.believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity
:28:41. > :28:44.into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election
:28:45. > :28:50.results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general
:28:51. > :28:56.election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that
:28:57. > :29:04.Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I
:29:05. > :29:10.am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the
:29:11. > :29:13.results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national
:29:14. > :29:18.election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from
:29:19. > :29:23.now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we
:29:24. > :29:28.are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic
:29:29. > :29:33.plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel
:29:34. > :29:38.secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.
:29:39. > :29:41.Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues
:29:42. > :29:50.that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep
:29:51. > :29:56.your promises. We have reduced immigration and the
:29:57. > :30:03.amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a
:30:04. > :30:07.couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to
:30:08. > :30:16.under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have
:30:17. > :30:22.broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU
:30:23. > :30:26.countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming
:30:27. > :30:33.here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help
:30:34. > :30:36.fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here
:30:37. > :30:43.to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our
:30:44. > :30:50.intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream
:30:51. > :30:55.politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you
:30:56. > :30:59.be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,
:31:00. > :31:07.correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit
:31:08. > :31:13.your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards
:31:14. > :31:18.the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of
:31:19. > :31:25.under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.
:31:26. > :31:29.But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote
:31:30. > :31:36.UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a
:31:37. > :31:41.referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but
:31:42. > :31:46.still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted
:31:47. > :31:53.for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about
:31:54. > :31:59.the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the
:32:00. > :32:04.political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address
:32:05. > :32:11.them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a
:32:12. > :32:17.treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely
:32:18. > :32:23.to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it
:32:24. > :32:31.will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a
:32:32. > :32:36.general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will
:32:37. > :32:42.run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust
:32:43. > :32:49.the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to
:32:50. > :32:52.2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a
:32:53. > :32:59.better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in
:33:00. > :33:05.a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about
:33:06. > :33:12.Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I
:33:13. > :33:17.do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see
:33:18. > :33:25.Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that
:33:26. > :33:29.is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way
:33:30. > :33:34.that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a
:33:35. > :33:42.majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect
:33:43. > :33:47.better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they
:33:48. > :33:51.have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national
:33:52. > :33:57.government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are
:33:58. > :34:02.voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want
:34:03. > :34:09.to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to
:34:10. > :34:15.see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your
:34:16. > :34:19.party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,
:34:20. > :34:27.like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015
:34:28. > :34:33.to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%
:34:34. > :34:42.behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a
:34:43. > :34:48.year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly
:34:49. > :34:53.deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.
:34:54. > :34:59.We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am
:35:00. > :35:03.a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be
:35:04. > :35:09.helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good
:35:10. > :35:12.friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best
:35:13. > :35:20.things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,
:35:21. > :35:26.you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a
:35:27. > :35:33.pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a
:35:34. > :35:38.market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should
:35:39. > :35:49.not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no
:35:50. > :35:54.pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say
:35:55. > :35:59.goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
:36:00. > :36:03.Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election
:36:04. > :36:16.I'm Julia George and this is the coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:17. > :36:20.I'm Julia George and this is the Sunday Politics in the South East.
:36:21. > :36:24.Coming up later, billions of barrels of shale oil ARE under the ground
:36:25. > :36:27.across southern England ` so as Ministers prepare plans to allow
:36:28. > :36:30.energy companies to frack under homes without owners' permission `
:36:31. > :36:34.we ask just how WILL it go down in the Tory heartlands? But first, the
:36:35. > :36:40.election fever is over, and the results are in ` for the local
:36:41. > :36:47.elections at least. The votes were counted well into the next day, but
:36:48. > :36:51.who were the winners and losers? Elation for Labour in Crawley, a
:36:52. > :36:56.town that is also a key parliamentary target. They won four
:36:57. > :37:00.seats from the Conservatives, taken control of the Council for the first
:37:01. > :37:04.time in eight years. Crawley is a crucial win for Labour as it looks
:37:05. > :37:07.to make an impact in the south`east in the general election. The new
:37:08. > :37:14.council leader is one of the youngest in the country at 27. We
:37:15. > :37:19.had a great result, better than expectations, we picked up all the
:37:20. > :37:23.seats we needed to take control. We had a decisive result that people
:37:24. > :37:29.wanted change. Labour is the change they need to vote for nationally
:37:30. > :37:32.next year. Success for Labour also in Hastings, where the party
:37:33. > :37:36.consolidated its position and gained a seat from the Tories. UKIP
:37:37. > :37:43.surrendered their only counsellor to the Conservatives. Overall, our boat
:37:44. > :37:48.is up and in the seats we were looking to hold, the majorities have
:37:49. > :37:52.been up. In Maidstone, the Conservatives lost overall control.
:37:53. > :37:58.UKIP snatched four bottle seats to deprive them of their majority. They
:37:59. > :38:02.don't like Europe, they have concerns about immigration, those
:38:03. > :38:08.pick up with stop when it comes to a pick up with stop when it comes to a
:38:09. > :38:14.general election, I am sure that the UKIP bubble will burst significantly
:38:15. > :38:20.and dramatically. But UKIP disagrees that its success is purely based on
:38:21. > :38:25.protest votes. Most Labour but I'll protest against the Conservatives
:38:26. > :38:30.and vice versa. There are a few voters who are positively embracing
:38:31. > :38:32.with the other parties stand for because they don't stand for
:38:33. > :38:39.anything that resonates with the British public. The Lib Dems in
:38:40. > :38:45.Maidstone had hoped to make gains. They still have 19 seats on a hung
:38:46. > :38:48.council. We are breathing down the Conservatives straight. They lost
:38:49. > :38:54.control of the Council, everybody now ringing us up asking if they can
:38:55. > :38:57.do a deal with us. So we are on the rise here. The Conservatives have
:38:58. > :38:59.been a bit with us. So we are on the rise here. The Conservatives have
:39:00. > :39:05.been of literate in Maidstone. In West Sussex, UKIP added five seats
:39:06. > :39:08.to their tally. It wasn't enough to trouble the Conservatives who remain
:39:09. > :39:14.in power. And the Conservatives stood firm in Worthing with other
:39:15. > :39:19.victories in other Surrey districts and in Tunbridge Wells, where they
:39:20. > :39:23.increased their hold on the borough. I feel elated because we went into
:39:24. > :39:27.this election with some trepidation but we have actually come out with
:39:28. > :39:30.one extra seat, that is a demonstration that the policies we
:39:31. > :39:35.have been putting forward over the last two years have resonated with
:39:36. > :39:56.the general public. This is how it looks across the region:
:39:57. > :40:03.with less than 30% of district and borough councils in contention,
:40:04. > :40:07.these elections were never going to transform the political map in the
:40:08. > :40:12.south`east. But they do tap into the public mood ahead of next year 's
:40:13. > :40:16.general election. These results will now be scrutinised by each party as
:40:17. > :40:20.they set about campaigning for parliamentary dominance next year.
:40:21. > :40:29.UKIP will be hoping they can build on their local council successes and
:40:30. > :40:32.make it to Westminster. So what can we learn from those results `
:40:33. > :40:35.joining me here is the South East Political Editor, Louise Stewart.
:40:36. > :40:38.What can we learn from Thursday's local election results? It is
:40:39. > :40:43.significant that the Tories lost control of two of their councils, in
:40:44. > :40:47.Maidstone, and in Crawley, that is the significant one because it is a
:40:48. > :40:52.bellwether seat and there was a huge push there by Labour. They launched
:40:53. > :40:55.their south`east campaigned there, Ed Miliband has been down there
:40:56. > :41:01.about three times in the last six months. But nationally, it is number
:41:02. > :41:05.92 on their target list and what the new leader there was saying to me
:41:06. > :41:10.is, if we can take this in the general election, we have already
:41:11. > :41:13.got a majority by that stage. As you know, you can't extrapolate from
:41:14. > :41:19.these elections what will happen next year, because the election is
:41:20. > :41:23.being held on a small number of councils and wards but I do think
:41:24. > :41:26.that Labour did pretty well. I don't think the Conservatives did maybe as
:41:27. > :41:30.badly as might have been expected at this stage in the political cycle. I
:41:31. > :41:36.don't think UKIP created the political earthquake we expected.
:41:37. > :41:39.They are considered to have a heartland in the south`east, a lot
:41:40. > :41:44.of people think Nigel Farage will stand in Kent. There were ambitions
:41:45. > :41:49.for maybe five seat in Tunbridge Wells, they have disappointed a bit
:41:50. > :41:53.in the south`east? You wouldn't know that from his reaction, he says he
:41:54. > :41:59.is delighted with how they did in Kent and Sussex. They didn't get any
:42:00. > :42:03.steeped in Tunbridge Wells. They did do well in Maidstone, they took four
:42:04. > :42:07.wards that in Hastings they were kicked of the council altogether.
:42:08. > :42:12.They didn't cause the political earthquake they predicted but they
:42:13. > :42:15.came second in lots of places, second in vote share in Tunbridge
:42:16. > :42:19.Wells and first past the post doesn't suit the smaller parties.
:42:20. > :42:26.Different system for the European Parliament. Thank you very much.
:42:27. > :42:29.Now, if you'd like more political analysis like that, Louise Stewart
:42:30. > :42:35.blogs on the BBC Sussex, Kent and Surrey websites.
:42:36. > :42:41.And so, joining me now to talk about those election results, we have a
:42:42. > :42:47.full studio ` all of whom have a particular interest in those
:42:48. > :42:51.results. Jeremy Birch is the Labour leader of Hastings Council where, as
:42:52. > :42:54.we heard Labour kept control. Tim Loughton, Conservative MP for East
:42:55. > :42:56.Worthing and Shoreham ` Worthing council was held by the
:42:57. > :42:59.Conservatives; Liberal Democrat PPC James MacCleary who will be standing
:43:00. > :43:04.in Tunbridge Wells at the General Election ` where his party lost two
:43:05. > :43:07.seats and by Diane James ` a UKIP candidate for the European Elections
:43:08. > :43:13.and a local councillor in Surrey. Welcome to one and all. Jeremy,
:43:14. > :43:17.thrilled I'm sure to hold onto Hastings and great news for Labour
:43:18. > :43:21.in Crawley, but if you get net gains in the south`east, UKIP top the
:43:22. > :43:28.table. That's not success at this stage be committed? If you look
:43:29. > :43:31.nationally... This is the south`east, I will get you to talk
:43:32. > :43:38.about the south`east. You have to look at the seats, there were no
:43:39. > :43:44.seats up in many of the Kent towns, nun in Brighton, none in a number of
:43:45. > :43:49.areas Labour would have made gains. A satisfied with coming second to
:43:50. > :43:52.UKIP? I think the south`east is doing as well as we can expect and
:43:53. > :43:57.we are on course for Labour to at least be the largest party in the
:43:58. > :44:02.general election next year. If you read Lord Ashcroft's poll, the most
:44:03. > :44:09.significant margin seeds, Labour win all but one of them. South Thanet,
:44:10. > :44:14.it is possibly where much of Farage will stand. He described one loss as
:44:15. > :44:19.a triumph against bigotry, that anti`UKIP languages and helpful at
:44:20. > :44:23.this stage, is it? Are the one in five people in the south`east to
:44:24. > :44:28.voted in the local elections, are they bigots? I was speaking about
:44:29. > :44:34.the UKIP candidate standing against me, the seat where the mosque in
:44:35. > :44:40.Hastings is located, who made some very unpleasant comments about our
:44:41. > :44:43.Muslim community, and is questionably showing anti`Semitic
:44:44. > :44:45.views as well. UKIP have backed him up but as the Daily Mail showed,
:44:46. > :44:50.this is not the sort of person I think should be in public office.
:44:51. > :44:58.George Osborne says he respects Nigel Farage, anyone else around
:44:59. > :45:03.here? You would be stupid not to. UKIP have put on a lot of games,
:45:04. > :45:08.Nigel Farage getting a huge amount of publicity, it would be stupid not
:45:09. > :45:14.to take notice of him. So that means what this stage, they are now the
:45:15. > :45:20.official opposition in some places, are you tend to make a pact with
:45:21. > :45:24.them? No, we are the incentive party, we will stand at the next
:45:25. > :45:28.election as the Conservative Party. `` Conservative parties. I don't
:45:29. > :45:35.think there will be any UKIP MPs to do a pact with anyway. You have lost
:45:36. > :45:38.overall control in several errors, UKIP are becoming a solid force in
:45:39. > :45:44.the south`east, you will lose MPs to them next year, surely. I don't
:45:45. > :45:49.thing set. If you look at Mike constituency, where UKIP picked up
:45:50. > :45:57.four seats, we were defending 13 out of 15 seats, and where UKIP one, the
:45:58. > :46:02.Labour vote collapse. In one seat, Labour came forth and our boat went
:46:03. > :46:07.up, substantially in some cases. Our boat share is well up on last year.
:46:08. > :46:11.We lost to UKIP where we did because of the weakness of Labour and the
:46:12. > :46:17.Lib Dems. Labour needs to be doing much better. The Lord Ashcroft poll
:46:18. > :46:22.puts a 3`way marginal seat, South Thanet, everyone is expecting Nigel
:46:23. > :46:28.Farage to stand there, that is one seat that surely the Conservatives
:46:29. > :46:31.are going to win. You won't even have an incumbent MP. The
:46:32. > :46:38.Conservatives will lose that? Everybody said he would win last
:46:39. > :46:44.year and he came and miserable third. But you have seven out of
:46:45. > :46:49.eight councillors who are UKIP in Thanet, that is their heartland in
:46:50. > :46:54.the south`east. Yes, but a general election will be different. It is
:46:55. > :46:58.interesting about the optimism, it is only UKIP that seemed to be
:46:59. > :47:01.gloomy about the economy and the world generally, there is a good
:47:02. > :47:04.deal of optimism among conservatives, Lib Dem and
:47:05. > :47:09.particularly Labour voters as well. When we come to a general election,
:47:10. > :47:13.we're talking about positive things, jobs, investment and growth in the
:47:14. > :47:18.economy and stop what we want to see in schools, the NHS. All we have
:47:19. > :47:26.heard from UKIP in this election is negative stuff. Let's see what Diane
:47:27. > :47:32.Jones has to say. UKIP only secured ten seats in the south`east out of
:47:33. > :47:38.60, that is not an earthquake. It is not an earthquake. But it is a very
:47:39. > :47:41.good result. They are in mind with virtually no repetition in the
:47:42. > :47:47.south`east, it is about as Navy blue in the country... That is simply not
:47:48. > :47:51.true, last year Nigel Farage said he was stunned when UKIP came from
:47:52. > :47:56.nowhere to win 17 seats and Kent County Council, you get better last
:47:57. > :47:58.year than this year. You are factoring in the London effect,
:47:59. > :48:03.where we have already admitted we have a lot of work to do. If you
:48:04. > :48:08.look at the south`east on its own, it is the bridgehead that Nigel
:48:09. > :48:16.Farage announced he wanted to form. But it is not as good as last year.
:48:17. > :48:19.But it is still very good. We have made Maidstone a no overall control
:48:20. > :48:24.authority, we have taken a consistent number of second
:48:25. > :48:27.positions. 23% of the vote in Tunbridge Wells, we are number two.
:48:28. > :48:31.That is the most amazing result when you think we have come from
:48:32. > :48:36.absolutely nowhere to achieve that. I accept we could have done better
:48:37. > :48:39.but in terms of the shock that it has sent in Tory heartlands of the
:48:40. > :48:45.south`east, I think is a good result indeed. Mixed results for the
:48:46. > :48:49.Liberal Democrats. In Maidstone, you have survived the national rout but
:48:50. > :48:54.not good news elsewhere in the south`east. You mentioned Maidstone,
:48:55. > :48:59.with but the trend in Maidstone when you look at the vote share in the
:49:00. > :49:02.city would see, we actually won the election overall, that is a
:49:03. > :49:05.fantastic stepping stone for us because Maidstone is a key target
:49:06. > :49:11.for us for next year's general election. So far from surviving a
:49:12. > :49:15.rout, we have bucked the trend. Let's talk about Tunbridge Wells.
:49:16. > :49:19.The Liberal Democrats are left with just three seats there. Tunbridge
:49:20. > :49:23.Wells has to be one of the safest Conservative seats in the country,
:49:24. > :49:28.presumably you're not giving up the day job yet? I am not, but then most
:49:29. > :49:34.parliamentary candidates don't give up their day jobs! What we are
:49:35. > :49:37.emphasising is what we have been doing for several months, the
:49:38. > :49:42.Liberal Democrats are about community politics and getting on
:49:43. > :49:47.the ground and making changes. We will get action on this cinema site,
:49:48. > :49:54.it has been sat there watching the 13 years. Within months, we have a
:49:55. > :49:59.petition of 9000 people... Last time I looked out of the window, it is
:50:00. > :50:05.still there! We have only had a few months and we have got movement
:50:06. > :50:10.already. Many think it is time for a change of leadership, is it time for
:50:11. > :50:14.Nick Clegg to go? I don't think so. I think we have to stay the course
:50:15. > :50:17.with our leader, took us into coalition, first we have been in
:50:18. > :50:25.government for 100 years and he deserves our support. Let's go onto
:50:26. > :50:30.a big story, there are legions of barrels of oil under our feet in
:50:31. > :50:33.Surrey, Sussex and Kent. According to a British Geological Survey. And
:50:34. > :50:37.you know what that means. Fracking is back on the agenda. The
:50:38. > :50:40.government is keen to do all it can to encourage companies to explore
:50:41. > :50:43.these reserves of shale oil. Here's the Energy Minister and MP for
:50:44. > :50:48.Sevenoaks Michael Fallon. People in Kent and Sussex have always known
:50:49. > :50:52.that there is oil there, there are 13 oil wells producing oil at the
:50:53. > :50:57.moment across the wheeled base, and they have been doing so here since
:50:58. > :51:01.the Second World War. They will only be more of it if it is properly
:51:02. > :51:05.licensed and properly proved locally but we now have a better estimate of
:51:06. > :51:09.how much oil is down there and it would be wrong in the inch to
:51:10. > :51:14.national energy security to ignore the potential for extracting more
:51:15. > :51:18.home`grown energy here rather than importing oil from unrivalled parts
:51:19. > :51:21.of the world. The Government have offered money to communities who
:51:22. > :51:24.allow exploratory drilling ` Greenpeace have called it a "bungs
:51:25. > :51:31.and bulldozers approach" and nobody yet knows how easy it will be to
:51:32. > :51:36.extract the shale oil. Michael Fallon is being disingenuous, isn't
:51:37. > :51:41.he, implying that the rush for shale oil is just a continuation of what
:51:42. > :51:44.we have already seen? There has been no high`pressure hydraulic
:51:45. > :51:50.fracturing in the south`east. This is new and very different and very
:51:51. > :51:54.sensitive. It is sensitive because people aren't familiar with shale
:51:55. > :52:00.oil, if we take somewhere like book, there has been drilling for oil on
:52:01. > :52:12.that site, most people didn't know about it, since lodging 86. But not
:52:13. > :52:18.fracking. Fracking is a different version of the same thing. Which
:52:19. > :52:22.involves a huge amount of water, involves chemicals, people's fears
:52:23. > :52:27.about contamination and overuse of water. You can't portray it as a
:52:28. > :52:33.continuation of what's going on. We need to have a big debate and public
:52:34. > :52:38.education exercise on this. You have just said it uses a huge amount of
:52:39. > :52:45.water, my understanding is it will use less water... Do you know where
:52:46. > :52:52.that quote comes from? Comes directly from patrolling company's
:52:53. > :52:56.press release. And yet the Department for energy and climate
:52:57. > :53:01.change is using it as though it is a fact. It is if everyone is picking
:53:02. > :53:05.up on. What people write to me about, not many have, but they worry
:53:06. > :53:12.if they will could be contamination of water? A perfectly reasonable
:53:13. > :53:18.concern. But most fracking wells will be as far down as Ben Nevis is
:53:19. > :53:23.high. It needs to be done properly, it needs to be properly licensed,
:53:24. > :53:27.scrutiny from the county councils, Environment Agency, but we would be
:53:28. > :53:30.crazy to ignore what is a source of energy for this country which we
:53:31. > :53:35.desperately need as part of a mixed economy. We so have the largest wind
:53:36. > :53:42.farm off the coast of my constituency. This is becoming an
:53:43. > :53:49.increasingly unpopular Tory policy, we are seeing support for fracking
:53:50. > :53:58.falling from 52% to 41%. Wouldn't it be better to to distance yourself
:53:59. > :54:01.from fracking? Personally, I have always disagreed with fracking, and
:54:02. > :54:05.it is a short`term missed approach and it is the wrong emphasis for our
:54:06. > :54:12.energy policy. I think we should invest in renewables and
:54:13. > :54:21.incentivised energy companies. So you disagree with it they be?
:54:22. > :54:24.Absolutely, I always have done. Your leader describes fracking is a
:54:25. > :54:30.God`given opportunity for the south`east, is that sensible
:54:31. > :54:33.politically, is it a vote winner? Lets put into context, the
:54:34. > :54:36.Conservative Party have claimed that the party political book will be
:54:37. > :54:44.used to whip their elected councillors at every political whip.
:54:45. > :54:49.The UK position on this is very clear. Local referenda, so
:54:50. > :54:54.individual communities can decide whether they support it or oppose it
:54:55. > :54:59.and that voice will be listened to. No elected UKIP councillor, despite
:55:00. > :55:06.a policy statement from Nigel Farage supporting it, no elected
:55:07. > :55:14.councillor, UKIP MP, will go against that. In context, let's put the
:55:15. > :55:20.statement in context, it was to do about security of energy supply.
:55:21. > :55:23.What we have also said is if we were not a member of the EU, we would not
:55:24. > :55:29.have to be following the ridiculous diktats... Hold on, France has
:55:30. > :55:33.banned fracking already. You can't blame the EU for this. France has
:55:34. > :55:40.banned fracking. You can make your own decisions. Wouldn't it be nice
:55:41. > :55:49.if David Cameron would ban fracking? Are you for it or against it? I want
:55:50. > :55:58.to see local communities... You must have an opinion. I don't know the
:55:59. > :56:03.full argument. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can't have your
:56:04. > :56:10.energy and security and eat it, you need to have a policy. You want
:56:11. > :56:18.lower energy bills but Labour seems hesitant to commit fully to a probe
:56:19. > :56:23.fracking policy, why? The idea that the South Downs National Park as the
:56:24. > :56:26.new Texas is frankly ridiculous. Interesting that Romania and
:56:27. > :56:31.Bulgaria have banned fracking, perhaps UKIP can make a visit to
:56:32. > :56:34.check out what is going on! I think we want a proper national debate and
:56:35. > :56:38.I wouldn't leave it to the government who have already made up
:56:39. > :56:41.their opinion, and tried to bribe local communities to accept it.
:56:42. > :56:50.Let's have a real debate about the benefits. And let's have a real
:56:51. > :56:55.debate about the not benefits. Tim is being blase about the impacts
:56:56. > :56:59.this could have on the water table. This is a big issue for the
:57:00. > :57:03.south`east. If you look at the amount of oil that could be
:57:04. > :57:10.extracted, it is very small, but 0.5% of North Sea oil reserves. Is
:57:11. > :57:17.this a storm in a teacup? Jeremy, your position, do you know yet? We
:57:18. > :57:24.want a proper and informed debate, not a government led debate. Are you
:57:25. > :57:33.pro`or anti`fracking? I have given my answer, I think. We will leave it
:57:34. > :57:36.there. Now it's time for some other political stories you might have
:57:37. > :57:45.missed this week ` James Fitzgerald has them in Sixty Seconds.
:57:46. > :57:50.And Barnes has taken part in the document tree which profiles her
:57:51. > :58:03.life as Kent's police and crime commission. P P C. Sorry, try that
:58:04. > :58:06.again. She said she did say to demonstrate she is open and
:58:07. > :58:11.transparent but her involvement was criticised by a police scrutiny
:58:12. > :58:14.panel. It brings the whole force into disrepute and I feel sorry for
:58:15. > :58:21.Kent Police. Southeastern says it has paid ?1.5 million in
:58:22. > :58:23.compensation to those inconvenienced this winter by landslips which
:58:24. > :58:30.closed the main line into east Sussex. Seven than it beaches were
:58:31. > :58:33.committed with a blue flag cleanliness award only for some of
:58:34. > :58:42.them to be flooded with Cilic next day. `` Cilic. I am disgusted with
:58:43. > :58:46.it. The business is all the way along the coastline.
:58:47. > :58:55.That's all we've got time for from the South East this week ` my thanks
:58:56. > :58:59.to all our guests. Parliament's not sitting next week so neither are we
:59:00. > :59:00.` but there's full coverage on BBC One of the European election results
:59:01. > :59:08.which are announced this evening. deported. We should also review the
:59:09. > :59:11.benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,
:59:12. > :59:23.back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib
:59:24. > :59:28.Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the
:59:29. > :59:33.show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the
:59:34. > :59:38.European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now
:59:39. > :59:42.from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib
:59:43. > :59:50.Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we
:59:51. > :00:02.have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We
:00:03. > :00:08.have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been
:00:09. > :00:12.put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is
:00:13. > :00:17.the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious
:00:18. > :00:21.politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good
:00:22. > :00:27.message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general
:00:28. > :00:35.election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At
:00:36. > :00:44.the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we
:00:45. > :00:49.turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack
:00:50. > :00:55.being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be
:00:56. > :01:00.no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem,
:01:01. > :01:05.you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the
:01:06. > :01:12.European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I
:01:13. > :01:16.have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of
:01:17. > :01:25.tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which
:01:26. > :01:30.people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it
:01:31. > :01:35.is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up
:01:36. > :01:42.than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something
:01:43. > :01:48.like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you
:01:49. > :01:51.are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are
:01:52. > :01:57.taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list
:01:58. > :02:02.of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began
:02:03. > :02:08.doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for
:02:09. > :02:13.over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a
:02:14. > :02:16.terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible
:02:17. > :02:21.European election. It will cut through much better in the context
:02:22. > :02:25.of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We
:02:26. > :02:33.have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough
:02:34. > :02:39.times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save
:02:40. > :02:46.one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to
:02:47. > :02:51.ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I
:02:52. > :02:55.recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our
:02:56. > :02:58.ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our
:02:59. > :03:05.position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and
:03:06. > :03:10.foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do,
:03:11. > :03:18.they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and
:03:19. > :03:24.autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had
:03:25. > :03:30.two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate
:03:31. > :03:35.over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick
:03:36. > :03:44.elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he
:03:45. > :03:49.lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of
:03:50. > :03:53.anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second
:03:54. > :03:59.debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had
:04:00. > :04:07.the courage to take us into government. He took that decision
:04:08. > :04:12.before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has
:04:13. > :04:20.led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost
:04:21. > :04:23.incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because
:04:24. > :04:28.some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no
:04:29. > :04:32.other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British
:04:33. > :04:41.people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of
:04:42. > :04:46.courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers
:04:47. > :04:51.Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go
:04:52. > :04:55.through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general
:04:56. > :05:00.election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the
:05:01. > :05:03.European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election.
:05:04. > :05:10.European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow
:05:11. > :05:18.morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line.
:05:19. > :05:24.In the context of a general election, we fought our way back,
:05:25. > :05:28.this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher
:05:29. > :05:31.base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the
:05:32. > :05:36.tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it
:05:37. > :05:40.has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the
:05:41. > :05:45.context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the
:05:46. > :05:50.resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will
:05:51. > :05:57.be far greater than you are suggesting.
:05:58. > :06:04.We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties.
:06:05. > :06:08.How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation
:06:09. > :06:14.of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they
:06:15. > :06:18.had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging
:06:19. > :06:21.on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that
:06:22. > :06:28.lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was
:06:29. > :06:33.Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have
:06:34. > :06:39.been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in
:06:40. > :06:44.Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war
:06:45. > :06:48.breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the
:06:49. > :06:54.Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we
:06:55. > :07:02.do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number
:07:03. > :07:07.doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is
:07:08. > :07:13.getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was
:07:14. > :07:17.ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of
:07:18. > :07:23.England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his
:07:24. > :07:28.heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for
:07:29. > :07:32.the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election
:07:33. > :07:35.if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of
:07:36. > :07:42.seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge
:07:43. > :07:50.that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they
:07:51. > :07:55.got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the
:07:56. > :08:00.Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major
:08:01. > :08:05.got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow
:08:06. > :08:10.cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration
:08:11. > :08:15.earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we
:08:16. > :08:19.should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The
:08:20. > :08:23.unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they
:08:24. > :08:29.should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took
:08:30. > :08:35.votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much
:08:36. > :08:41.difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it
:08:42. > :08:46.appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot
:08:47. > :08:51.of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising
:08:52. > :08:56.their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north,
:08:57. > :09:00.I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will
:09:01. > :09:07.damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the
:09:08. > :09:10.South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as
:09:11. > :09:18.to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the
:09:19. > :09:23.Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the
:09:24. > :09:32.European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned
:09:33. > :09:37.Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do
:09:38. > :09:43.well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we
:09:44. > :09:48.will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The
:09:49. > :09:53.Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of
:09:54. > :09:58.the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need
:09:59. > :10:03.to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is
:10:04. > :10:10.a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was
:10:11. > :10:17.there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky
:10:18. > :10:21.road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories
:10:22. > :10:30.must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold
:10:31. > :10:36.the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he
:10:37. > :10:39.could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is
:10:40. > :10:56.not the first politician to make a meal of it.
:10:57. > :11:37.I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one,
:11:38. > :11:44.and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too.
:11:45. > :11:49.The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we
:11:50. > :11:55.can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is
:11:56. > :12:00.accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident.
:12:01. > :12:04.He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the
:12:05. > :12:11.conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you
:12:12. > :12:17.eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately.
:12:18. > :12:20.Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and
:12:21. > :12:27.as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own
:12:28. > :12:30.self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in
:12:31. > :12:35.Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food,
:12:36. > :12:40.do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband
:12:41. > :12:45.with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but
:12:46. > :12:50.what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.
:12:51. > :12:56.George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has
:12:57. > :13:00.transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has
:13:01. > :13:06.transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are
:13:07. > :13:10.correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing
:13:11. > :13:15.up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.
:13:16. > :13:20.We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get
:13:21. > :13:26.those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14
:13:27. > :13:32.from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No
:13:33. > :13:34.programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is
:13:35. > :14:11.the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its
:14:12. > :14:14.Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about
:14:15. > :14:21.the political mood here in Britain of the results
:14:22. > :14:25.both here and across Europe.