:00:38. > :00:39.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:40. > :00:46.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:47. > :00:47.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:48. > :00:53.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:54. > :01:00.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:01. > :01:03.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:04. > :01:06.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:07. > :01:14.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:15. > :01:25.There's going to be a by eldction in Kent after Mark Reckless defected
:01:26. > :01:28.to UKIP ` he'll be joining ts and we'll be asking whether others
:01:29. > :01:34.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:35. > :01:38.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:39. > :01:42.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:43. > :01:45.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:46. > :01:52.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:53. > :01:55.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:56. > :01:59.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:02:00. > :02:01.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:02. > :02:05.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:06. > :02:08.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:09. > :02:12.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:13. > :02:16.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:17. > :02:22.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:23. > :02:29.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:30. > :02:41.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:42. > :02:45.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:46. > :02:48.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:49. > :02:52.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:53. > :02:54.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:55. > :03:03.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:04. > :03:10.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:11. > :03:13.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:14. > :03:18.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:19. > :03:21.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:22. > :03:25.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:26. > :03:29.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:30. > :03:34.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:35. > :03:38.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:39. > :03:41.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:42. > :03:46.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:47. > :03:49.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:50. > :03:54.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:55. > :04:00.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:01. > :04:05.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:06. > :04:09.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:10. > :04:14.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:15. > :04:18.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:19. > :04:39.Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..
:04:40. > :04:44.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:45. > :04:51.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:52. > :04:56.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:57. > :04:59.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:05:00. > :05:02.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:03. > :05:06.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:07. > :05:12.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:13. > :05:21.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:22. > :05:27.That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this
:05:28. > :05:33.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:34. > :05:38.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:39. > :05:44.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:45. > :05:47.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:48. > :05:51.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:52. > :05:55.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:56. > :05:58.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:59. > :06:02.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:03. > :06:07.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:08. > :06:12.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:13. > :06:15.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:16. > :06:22.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:23. > :06:27.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:28. > :06:31.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10
:06:32. > :06:35.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:36. > :06:39.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:40. > :06:43.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:44. > :06:47.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:48. > :06:52.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:53. > :06:59.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:07:00. > :07:08.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:09. > :07:12.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:13. > :07:18.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:19. > :07:21.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:22. > :07:27.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:28. > :07:31.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:32. > :07:35.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:36. > :07:45.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:46. > :07:49.MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their
:07:50. > :07:54.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:55. > :07:57.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:07:58. > :08:01.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:02. > :08:05.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:06. > :08:12.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:13. > :08:15.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:16. > :08:23.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:24. > :08:27.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:28. > :08:32.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:33. > :08:36.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:37. > :08:43.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:44. > :08:45.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:46. > :08:52.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:53. > :08:56.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:57. > :09:00.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:01. > :09:03.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:04. > :09:07.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things
:09:08. > :09:12.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:13. > :09:15.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:16. > :09:20.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:21. > :09:24.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:25. > :09:31.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:32. > :09:39.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:40. > :09:42.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:43. > :09:49.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:50. > :09:52.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:53. > :09:58.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:59. > :10:01.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:02. > :10:09.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:10. > :10:14.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:15. > :10:19.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:20. > :10:32.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:33. > :10:37.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:38. > :10:41.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:42. > :10:45.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:46. > :10:51.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:52. > :10:55.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:56. > :11:00.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:01. > :11:02.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:03. > :11:06.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:07. > :11:12.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:13. > :11:17.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:18. > :11:21.of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:22. > :11:24.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the
:11:25. > :11:28.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:29. > :11:31.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:32. > :11:35.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:36. > :11:39.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:40. > :11:45.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:46. > :11:50.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:51. > :11:54.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:55. > :12:01.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:02. > :12:06.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:07. > :12:11.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:12. > :12:16.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:17. > :12:21.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:22. > :12:24.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:25. > :12:30.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:31. > :12:35.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:36. > :12:38.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:39. > :12:43.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:44. > :12:47.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:48. > :12:53.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:54. > :13:00.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:01. > :13:03.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:04. > :13:08.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:09. > :13:20.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:21. > :13:22.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:23. > :13:27.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:28. > :13:32.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -
:13:33. > :13:35.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:36. > :13:48.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:49. > :13:52.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:53. > :13:55.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:56. > :14:01.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:02. > :14:07.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:08. > :14:11.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:12. > :14:15.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:16. > :14:23.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:24. > :14:27.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:28. > :14:31.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:32. > :14:34.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:35. > :14:44.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:45. > :14:47.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:48. > :14:52.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:53. > :14:58.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:59. > :15:10.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:11. > :15:19.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:20. > :15:23.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:24. > :15:28.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:29. > :15:33.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:34. > :15:37.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:38. > :15:44.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:45. > :15:49.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:50. > :15:56.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:57. > :16:01.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:02. > :16:11.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:12. > :16:15.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:16. > :16:22.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:23. > :16:28.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:29. > :16:33.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:34. > :16:39.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:40. > :16:47.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:48. > :16:51.way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:52. > :16:58.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:59. > :17:03.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:04. > :17:09.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:10. > :17:15.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:16. > :17:19.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:20. > :17:25.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:26. > :17:31.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:32. > :17:35.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:36. > :17:39.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:40. > :17:43.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:44. > :17:49.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:50. > :17:55.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:56. > :18:01.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:02. > :18:05.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:06. > :18:09.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:10. > :18:14.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:15. > :18:19.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:20. > :18:25.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:26. > :18:31.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:32. > :18:36.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:37. > :18:40.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:41. > :18:46.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:47. > :18:50.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:51. > :18:55.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:56. > :19:01.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:02. > :19:06.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:07. > :19:12.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:13. > :19:17.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:18. > :19:23.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:24. > :19:27.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:28. > :19:32.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:33. > :19:38.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:39. > :19:43.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:44. > :19:47.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:48. > :19:56.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:57. > :19:59.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:00. > :20:07.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:08. > :20:13.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:14. > :20:17.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:18. > :20:21.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:22. > :20:30.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:31. > :20:34.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:35. > :20:37.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:38. > :20:42.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:43. > :20:48.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:49. > :20:52.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:53. > :20:59.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..
:21:00. > :21:04.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:05. > :21:13.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:14. > :21:17.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:18. > :21:20.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:21. > :21:28.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:29. > :21:35.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:36. > :21:48.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:49. > :21:54.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,
:21:55. > :22:12.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000
:22:13. > :22:20.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:21. > :22:25.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:26. > :22:29.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:30. > :22:36.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:37. > :22:40.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:41. > :22:46.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:47. > :22:52.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:53. > :22:58.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:59. > :23:02.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:03. > :23:07.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:08. > :23:14.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:15. > :23:18.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:19. > :23:22.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:23. > :23:27.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:28. > :23:31.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:32. > :23:36.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:37. > :23:40.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:41. > :23:45.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:46. > :23:53.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:54. > :23:59.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:00. > :24:09.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:10. > :24:15.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:16. > :24:19.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:20. > :24:26.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:27. > :24:31.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:32. > :24:36.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:37. > :24:39.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:40. > :24:43.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:44. > :24:48.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:49. > :24:53.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:54. > :24:58.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:59. > :25:03.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:04. > :25:08.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:09. > :25:13.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:14. > :25:18.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:19. > :25:25.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:26. > :25:32.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:33. > :25:36.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:37. > :25:41.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:42. > :25:46.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:47. > :25:51.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:52. > :25:57.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:58. > :26:01.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:02. > :26:06.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:07. > :26:10.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:11. > :26:16.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:17. > :26:22.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:23. > :26:27.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:28. > :26:33.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:34. > :26:38.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:39. > :26:41.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:42. > :26:46.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:47. > :26:52.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:53. > :26:56.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:57. > :27:01.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:02. > :27:06.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:07. > :27:16.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:17. > :27:21.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:22. > :27:25.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:26. > :27:29.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:30. > :27:35.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:36. > :27:41.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:42. > :27:47.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:48. > :27:52.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:53. > :27:59.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:00. > :28:05.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:06. > :28:09.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:10. > :28:14.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:15. > :28:19.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:20. > :28:24.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:25. > :28:28.there will be English votes for English laws after the election
:28:29. > :28:32.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:33. > :28:35.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:36. > :28:41.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:42. > :28:47.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:48. > :28:49.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:50. > :28:52.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:53. > :28:54.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:55. > :29:03.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:04. > :29:07.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:08. > :29:12.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:13. > :29:17.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:18. > :29:22.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:23. > :29:25.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:26. > :29:30.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:31. > :29:34.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:35. > :29:37.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:38. > :29:50.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:51. > :29:54.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:55. > :30:01.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:02. > :30:03.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:04. > :30:10.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:11. > :30:15.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:16. > :30:19.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:20. > :30:22.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:23. > :30:28.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:29. > :30:31.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:32. > :30:37.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:38. > :30:41.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:42. > :30:46.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:47. > :30:50.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:51. > :30:55.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:56. > :30:59.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:00. > :31:04.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:05. > :31:07.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:08. > :31:11.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:12. > :31:18.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:19. > :31:24.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:25. > :31:26.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:27. > :31:37.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:38. > :31:40.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:41. > :31:45.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:46. > :31:49.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:50. > :31:52.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:53. > :31:56.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:57. > :32:05.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:06. > :32:09.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:10. > :32:16.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:17. > :32:24.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:25. > :32:28.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:29. > :32:33.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:34. > :32:37.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:38. > :32:41.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:42. > :32:47.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:48. > :32:50.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:51. > :32:56.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:57. > :33:02.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:03. > :33:07.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:08. > :33:11.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:12. > :33:14.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:15. > :33:18.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:19. > :33:22.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:23. > :33:28.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:29. > :33:32.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:33. > :33:36.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:37. > :33:40.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:41. > :33:45.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:46. > :33:49.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:50. > :33:52.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:53. > :33:58.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:59. > :34:03.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:04. > :34:08.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:09. > :34:13.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:14. > :34:19.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:20. > :34:23.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:24. > :34:26.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:27. > :34:34.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:35. > :34:38.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:39. > :34:44.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:45. > :34:49.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:50. > :34:53.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:54. > :34:56.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:57. > :35:01.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:02. > :35:07.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:08. > :35:14.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:15. > :35:19.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:20. > :35:25.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't
:35:26. > :35:29.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:30. > :35:33.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:34. > :35:38.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:39. > :35:44.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:45. > :35:46.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:47. > :35:54.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:55. > :35:57.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:58. > :36:03.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:04. > :36:07.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:08. > :36:14.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:15. > :36:20.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it
:36:21. > :36:26.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:27. > :36:31.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:32. > :36:35.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:36. > :36:42.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:43. > :36:47.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:48. > :36:52.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:53. > :36:56.of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:57. > :37:01.given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:02. > :37:06.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:07. > :37:10.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:11. > :37:14.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:15. > :37:24.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:25. > :37:27.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:28. > :37:28.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:29. > :37:31.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:32. > :37:36.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:37. > :37:49.minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello,
:37:50. > :37:50.I'm Natalie Graham and this is the Coming up later ` as air strikes
:37:51. > :37:56.begin in Iraq, how do we stop young men like Ibrahim Kamara
:37:57. > :38:01.becoming radicalised in Sussex. As the UKIP conference ends on
:38:02. > :38:06.a bombshell and the Conserv`tives gather in Birmingham there's plenty
:38:07. > :38:08.to discuss this morning ` we're joined by the Conserv`tive MP
:38:09. > :38:12.for Crawley, Henry Smith, and Mike Glennon, the UKIP leader on
:38:13. > :38:15.West Sussex County Council who's also a parliamentary candid`te
:38:16. > :38:18.for Shoreham and East Worthhng. First ` we knew they shared the same
:38:19. > :38:21.views on Europe and immigration but the announcement yesterday that
:38:22. > :38:24.Mark Reckless and Nigel Far`ge are now officially political bedfellows
:38:25. > :38:26.took everyone by surprise. In case you missed it,
:38:27. > :38:35.here's the moment it happendd. Today I am leaving the Consdrvative
:38:36. > :38:51.Party. And joining UKIP. Well Mr Reckless
:38:52. > :38:53.and Mr Farage are as we spe`k A short time ago I spoke to the now
:38:54. > :39:06.former Conservative MP for the town. You made this decision becatse of
:39:07. > :39:13.your political principles btt you have taken an electoral gamble. Not
:39:14. > :39:17.least because many of your former colleagues feel angry about the way
:39:18. > :39:24.you have lied to them. If you do not win this seat for UKIP you `re
:39:25. > :39:31.damaging yourself and Nigel Farage. I accept this as a big personal risk
:39:32. > :39:35.for me. But I am in politics and other politicians should be in
:39:36. > :39:40.politics to do the right thhng by their constituents. I made ` series
:39:41. > :39:44.of promises and 2010 about cutting emigration and reducing the deficit
:39:45. > :39:49.and deforming the political system. I want to keep those promisds. The
:39:50. > :39:57.Government has not done so. `` reforming the political system. I
:39:58. > :40:03.want to get our country back and get the politics we deserve. Yot
:40:04. > :40:07.repeatedly mention local issues You must have done the maths here. I
:40:08. > :40:16.knew working on the basis that you can win around the disaffected
:40:17. > :40:22.voters you met yesterday? I have got a fighting chance in this
:40:23. > :40:27.by`election. It will not be easy. Clearly there will be some
:40:28. > :40:33.conservatives who are upset with the decision I have made. But I feel I
:40:34. > :40:38.had to put my country and mx constituents first rather than the
:40:39. > :40:42.party I was a member of previously. I hope many of those Conservatives,
:40:43. > :40:49.and certainly many CV are ddlighted at the decision, and some h`ve said
:40:50. > :40:54.they had previously moves to UKIP but it was because of the stance I
:40:55. > :40:59.had made on immigration that they were staying with me. Some Labour
:41:00. > :41:04.people who would not have voted for me because I was a conservative but
:41:05. > :41:14.have been pleased with the work I have been doing in the
:41:15. > :41:19.constituency... But you havd taken a carpeted risk. Let us talk `bout
:41:20. > :41:28.immigration. You see that as a big factor. You know it is not that easy
:41:29. > :41:35.to get numbers down in the way that your new party says it can. It is
:41:36. > :41:40.not easy. The biggest probldm is we have completely alerted immhgration
:41:41. > :41:49.from the European Union. Constituents come to my surgery of
:41:50. > :41:57.African heritage and they are looking to marry someone abroad but
:41:58. > :42:05.they are turned away becausd they are not earning ?18,500 per year,
:42:06. > :42:11.which is a precondition to larry someone from outside the EU. They
:42:12. > :42:22.seek French and German people living here and EU rules. We need fairness
:42:23. > :42:27.for people from this countrx, particularly of Commonwealth
:42:28. > :42:34.heritage, rather than just having priority to unskilled peopld from
:42:35. > :42:41.Southern Europe all the timd. Housing, you know how much ht is
:42:42. > :42:44.needed in your constituency. You are crossing to UKIP because yot are
:42:45. > :42:49.opposed to Government plans to build more houses. How do you squ`re that
:42:50. > :42:56.with constituents who want to own their own home? We have fantastic
:42:57. > :43:00.housing developments here. H want to get on with building them so we have
:43:01. > :43:06.more houses. We have a new train station. 13 houses on this
:43:07. > :43:12.riverside. It will be brillhant for local people. Perhaps also for
:43:13. > :43:16.people who want to commute to London but live here. But we have to look
:43:17. > :43:22.at the numbers and look at what is the right place to build hotses To
:43:23. > :43:30.build 5000 houses in a site of scientific interest, where does it
:43:31. > :43:36.stop? We promised we would get rid of these top`down targets. Now we
:43:37. > :43:40.are seeing 1000 houses per xear is the minimum target. Even under
:43:41. > :43:47.labour we were only having to build 800. It must be nice for yot to be a
:43:48. > :43:55.big fish in a small pond. Do you think other MPs will follow suit? I
:43:56. > :44:02.have been made very welcome. Nigel Farage lives in Kent. A lot of
:44:03. > :44:05.people in Kent are supporting as. BR pleased with what I have done. Other
:44:06. > :44:18.MPs will have to speak for themselves.
:44:19. > :44:24.I enjoyed by a candidate who is standing against Nigel Farage. We
:44:25. > :44:33.will talk to our studio guests first. This is a nightmare scenario
:44:34. > :44:41.for your party. It is bizarre. As a Conservative MP myself, I bdlieve we
:44:42. > :44:45.should have a referendum. Why would you damage the chance of eldcting a
:44:46. > :44:51.majority Conservative Government, the only party who will delhver a
:44:52. > :44:58.referendum, by switching to UKIP. What you do is more likely lake Ed
:44:59. > :45:04.Miliband the Prime Minister. Labour are against an EU referendul. Or you
:45:05. > :45:07.might have Ocean between Labour and the Liberal Democrats and Nhck Clegg
:45:08. > :45:15.is equally against a referendum The only way to get a referendul as a
:45:16. > :45:18.Conservative Government. A lot of your backbench colleagues fdel you
:45:19. > :45:24.have not been able to tackld immigration. It is a key issue for
:45:25. > :45:28.voters. Immigration from outside the EU is down significantly. Btt that
:45:29. > :45:34.is this issue in terms of free movement. It is not something that
:45:35. > :45:39.you can negotiate. That is why we need a referendum on future
:45:40. > :45:45.membership of the European Tnion. That is why we dry to legislate last
:45:46. > :45:49.year. We were defeated by the Liberal Democrats and Labour. We are
:45:50. > :46:01.going to dry to introduce that bill again an actual but to have fun in
:46:02. > :46:06.out referendum. I think there should be an DU
:46:07. > :46:11.referendum. That is what I stood up for in the House of Commons and in
:46:12. > :46:16.my constituency. That's what I will continue to do. The only wax we will
:46:17. > :46:25.achieve that is with a majority Conservative Government. Anxthing
:46:26. > :46:34.else is a dangerous distraction Has UKIP targeted you yet? I am sure
:46:35. > :46:44.they will stand in my consthtuency. Have you been asked to join the
:46:45. > :46:55.party? No. We are going to see others possibly? If you want a
:46:56. > :46:59.referendum on the EU the only way to achieve it is to elect a
:47:00. > :47:06.Conservative Government. Nigel Farage launched an assault on Labour
:47:07. > :47:13.at the conference in Doncaster. The momentum is with him at the moment.
:47:14. > :47:20.You are Labour 's main weapon against ten in Thanet. How galling
:47:21. > :47:25.was it for you when Ed Miliband let immigration out of his speech last
:47:26. > :47:32.week. We have not seen UKIP on the ground. Labour is leading in
:47:33. > :47:38.Thanet. We have got the ide`s. You are not talking about the things
:47:39. > :47:42.that people want you to. Ed Miliband did not talk about immigrathon. It
:47:43. > :47:49.is the number`1 issue with lost of the people you need to over to your
:47:50. > :47:52.party. I disagree. People are not talking about the European Tnion.
:47:53. > :47:58.Not the European Union. Immigration. Immigration dods come
:47:59. > :48:04.up on the door away, but so does jobs. A lot of people are otr
:48:05. > :48:12.concern is that we will enforce the minimum wage and make sure that
:48:13. > :48:17.companies cannot undercut w`ges Surveys show that they do not trust
:48:18. > :48:21.Labour on immigration and they do trust UKIP on immigration. TKIP is
:48:22. > :48:26.now targeting the squeezed liddle that Ed Miliband used to talk about
:48:27. > :48:31.with the new business tax r`te. You are not speaking to them at the
:48:32. > :48:35.moment. The tectonic plates of this country are shifting. You c`n see
:48:36. > :48:41.the chaos that is beer with the Conservatives at the moment. Tory
:48:42. > :48:47.MPs are defecting to UKIP. There is chaos. The Tory candidate standing
:48:48. > :48:51.against me used to be with TKIP We are seeing that Labour has policies
:48:52. > :48:57.that can deliver for working people. Dealing with the NHS, private sector
:48:58. > :49:03.housing, low wages. Labour has policies to deal with that. UKIP
:49:04. > :49:08.does not. Interesting what we are stealing beer from Thanet. Xour
:49:09. > :49:17.leader does not have time to campaign. `` interesting wh`t we are
:49:18. > :49:24.dealing from Thanet. Another defection from the Conservative
:49:25. > :49:28.Party. People are clear that the election next year is a chohce. If
:49:29. > :49:32.you want independence for this country on the UKIP can delhver it.
:49:33. > :49:37.The other three parties are committed to staying in the European
:49:38. > :49:43.Union. If you do that mass tnlimited immigration cannot be avoiddd. You
:49:44. > :49:48.talk the talk and make bold claims about immigration but as I said
:49:49. > :49:53.earlier it is easy to do th`t. But the Coalition Government fahled to
:49:54. > :49:58.meet even its own targets. Immigration is 240,000 per xear You
:49:59. > :50:03.want to get this down to 50,000 It takes time. First we have two
:50:04. > :50:10.established the right to veto immigration to the levels wd are
:50:11. > :50:13.happy with. We cannot do thhs. Our masters in Brussels and Str`sbourg
:50:14. > :50:23.dictate what we have to do. The first step is getting out of the EU.
:50:24. > :50:28.The UKIP position is better technology, passport monitoring
:50:29. > :50:33.more people working on passport control. These other parties do not
:50:34. > :50:36.have it. It is good for you to get Mark reckless because he will not
:50:37. > :50:43.embarrass your party in the way that others may have done. He is a safe
:50:44. > :50:49.pair of hands. I will be calpaigning with hen as I have been othdr
:50:50. > :50:54.candidates. Clacton is painted purple right now. I am lookhng
:50:55. > :50:59.forward to the result. We are concerned with events closer to
:51:00. > :51:05.home. What about this survex that we had. This idea of doing a ddal with
:51:06. > :51:07.the Conservatives. You have got the momentum behind you. I am gtessing
:51:08. > :51:13.that is not something you w`nt to consider. Deals are not on the
:51:14. > :51:22.table. Cooperation may be. Alliances, who knows? I want people
:51:23. > :51:29.to vote for a party that is capable of delivering an EU referendum. That
:51:30. > :51:35.is Conservatives. We're UKIP have been elected when they have
:51:36. > :51:41.important decisions to make such as a budget 's decision they bought to
:51:42. > :51:46.reduce it. That is not true. We were happy to reason by 25 million, not
:51:47. > :51:50.30 million, which is what you wanted. The 5 million saving we were
:51:51. > :51:56.going to allocate to protecting homes for older people. We got fed
:51:57. > :52:01.up with those lies at the l`st election. People want investment in
:52:02. > :52:07.the highways. I do not think we should be voting to cut spending on
:52:08. > :52:15.the highways. It would help you know went if you kept its not st`nd
:52:16. > :52:22.against you in Crawley. In Lay the figures suggest that UKIP took more
:52:23. > :52:28.from the Labour vote omitted from our report. The only way to get our
:52:29. > :52:32.referendum is with the Consdrvative Party.
:52:33. > :52:35.Now as MPS were preparing to vote on air strikes in Iraq, last week
:52:36. > :52:38.it emerged the first British victim of US strikes in Syria was Hbrahim
:52:39. > :52:42.He's one of four brothers, went to school in the city,
:52:43. > :52:45.and according to his friends he was radicalised overnight,
:52:46. > :52:56.A single mum raising four boys and they grow up, you think it's
:52:57. > :52:58.time for them to help you. @nd somebody just warned you just like
:52:59. > :53:02.that. You didn't know where it came from. When
:53:03. > :53:06.they were younger I raised them up, and you come one day and yot let him
:53:07. > :53:08.listen to you other than me. He looked at me,
:53:09. > :53:10.looked at his brother and ttrned his back on us. He doesn't know what
:53:11. > :53:13.he's done. Predominantly they're aged
:53:14. > :53:16.between 18 and 25 and they `re of an educational background highdr than
:53:17. > :53:20.the UK average. They are invariably male. But having talked to some of
:53:21. > :53:28.them and having looked closdly at their cases there are as many
:53:29. > :53:32.personal quirks as there ard people out there and as many journdys as
:53:33. > :53:34.there are British jihadists. The
:53:35. > :53:38.youngsters expressed the nedd for humanitarian aid and they dhd
:53:39. > :53:45.involve themselves in charitable work. And of course the concern was
:53:46. > :53:50.there and the signs were not as visible to us.
:53:51. > :53:54.The issue does raise the question of what more wd can be
:53:55. > :53:57.doing in terms of conversathons and discussions with all of the faith
:53:58. > :54:00.communities in Brighton to lake sure that radicalisation isn't h`ppening.
:54:01. > :54:05.I have no evidence that it is and in my conversations with
:54:06. > :54:09.Muslim leaders that is cert`inly what they are reflecting back to me
:54:10. > :54:12.but I guess a case like this does raise the question again. That means
:54:13. > :54:14.that we have to be absolutely sure that this isn't happening in our
:54:15. > :54:30.city. The fact is it is happening and none
:54:31. > :54:48.of those people we spoke to seems to normal how it is happening. `` seems
:54:49. > :54:54.to know. The vastly job at ` of the Muslim community work well with the
:54:55. > :55:01.rest of the committee in Cr`wley. `` the majority of the Muslim community
:55:02. > :55:07.work well. We need to see how those who might be disaffected, and young
:55:08. > :55:13.people can become disaffectdd across`the`board, how we can better
:55:14. > :55:19.target them to see that extremism is a very dangerous route that will
:55:20. > :55:23.ruin the rest of their lives. The missing gap year is that thdy do not
:55:24. > :55:36.know who is doing it and how they are doing it. Without that how can
:55:37. > :55:47.we start projects that. It? One of the projects that has been `pproved
:55:48. > :55:50.for Crawley concerns the vile messages on social media th`t
:55:51. > :55:56.encourages people into radicalisation. That can be directly
:55:57. > :56:03.tackled. Also going into schools. Dealing with women in the community
:56:04. > :56:09.who are influential. But thd mother of Ibrahim Kamara did not know what
:56:10. > :56:15.was happening. Precisely. There is more to be done in that respect But
:56:16. > :56:22.illustrates that the threat posed by IS is not only in the Middld East,
:56:23. > :56:28.but it is in our communities as well and we need a combined security
:56:29. > :56:33.approach. Is it going to be enough? Especially with air strikes taking
:56:34. > :56:38.place? It will make things worse. No. We need to play our part,
:56:39. > :56:43.interestingly with other Middle East countries playing their part. This
:56:44. > :56:53.should not just be Western Durope. This is also a response that
:56:54. > :57:05.countries in the Middle East are giving. IS are evil. They nded to be
:57:06. > :57:10.tackled both in the Middle Dast and we need to tackle extremism, which
:57:11. > :57:16.we are doing here, as well. Your party is against air strikes. But
:57:17. > :57:22.the actions we are seeing from IS means there is support for `ir
:57:23. > :57:26.strikes. There is, but they do not learn lessons. In 2003 we ldarned
:57:27. > :57:32.that interfering on that sc`le at fire. We cannot solve your problems
:57:33. > :57:37.for them. Offering humanitarian aid is right and we support it. The idea
:57:38. > :57:42.of intervening on a militarx bases is pointless. The only be to
:57:43. > :57:45.influence the situation is to go in large scale on the ground and that
:57:46. > :57:54.is the last thing we want. Do we just let them carry on what they are
:57:55. > :57:59.doing? The Arab diplomatic channels. Negotiations. That is the most
:58:00. > :58:10.constructive way forward. Wd do not have a magic wand. Do you h`ve
:58:11. > :58:19.suggestions to stop this radicalisation? There needs to be
:58:20. > :58:22.more intervention in schools. Multiculturalism is fantasthc, but
:58:23. > :58:24.people need to sign up to one British culture. Tolerance, fairness
:58:25. > :58:30.and decency. And now it's time for some of the
:58:31. > :58:47.other political stories you may have Manston Airport has been sold to
:58:48. > :58:50.the team which redeveloped the Pfizer plant in Sandwich. Against
:58:51. > :58:52.campaigners' hopes they want to use the site for housing, manuf`cturing,
:58:53. > :58:55.schools and not for aviation. We're
:58:56. > :58:59.not airport people and when we bought it it certainly wasn't an
:59:00. > :59:01.airport. As I understand it all of the equipment has already bden sold.
:59:02. > :59:04.Meanwhile the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls used his speech at thd Labour
:59:05. > :59:06.Conference to try and hurry along the decision over airport
:59:07. > :59:09.expansion in the South East. No more kicking it
:59:10. > :59:11.into the long grass, but taking the right decisions for Britain's
:59:12. > :59:14.long`term future. Revolt on the
:59:15. > :59:19.roads and railways ` Public Accounts Committee s`id
:59:20. > :59:23.fewer than one third of drivers are
:59:24. > :59:25.happy with the state of our potholed roads. And Passenger Focus found
:59:26. > :59:28.that two thirds of us are unhappy with the way rail companies deal
:59:29. > :59:30.with delays. The industry s`ys it's working on it.
:59:31. > :59:34.That's why we're spending millions of pounds
:59:35. > :59:37.improving how we get inform`tion about disruptions to passengers
:59:38. > :59:39.Eastbourne's pier reopened hn part this weekend just two months afer
:59:40. > :59:54.the fire. I know you are not going to
:59:55. > :59:57.Birmingham until Tuesday but it will be a strange atmosphere. Wh`t does
:59:58. > :00:05.David Cameron have to do to rally the troops? Tomorrow we are
:00:06. > :00:09.campaigning in Crawley. Then I am heading up to Birmingham. Wd need to
:00:10. > :00:14.get the message more clearlx across that only a conservative majority
:00:15. > :00:20.will be able to deliver a rdferendum on membership of the EU.
:00:21. > :00:22.Thank you both very much. That is all for now.
:00:23. > :00:26.in his resignation speech w`s his opposition to a proposed hotsing
:00:27. > :00:29.We'll be taking a closer look at it next week.
:00:30. > :00:40.In the meantime, my thanks to Henry Smith and to Mike Glennon
:00:41. > :00:56.My thanks to you both. Andrew, back to you.
:00:57. > :01:04.Here we are back in Birmingham with the Conservatives. The Tories
:01:05. > :01:10.thought all they had to do was come here, have a rally, a jamboree, and
:01:11. > :01:15.off they go to the races, or in their case the general election Two
:01:16. > :01:21.races later it hasn't quite worked out like that. Let's look at the
:01:22. > :01:28.state of this conference as it gets under way. On our panel we are
:01:29. > :01:32.joined by David Davis. You wrote an article in the Mail on Sunday this
:01:33. > :01:39.morning which was an Exocet at the heart of David Cameron's modernising
:01:40. > :01:45.strategy. It was designed to act as a lever. It was designed to cause
:01:46. > :01:49.trouble. No, we are in the running for the next general election. One
:01:50. > :01:54.of the characteristics of having a five year fixed term Parliaments is
:01:55. > :01:58.that the last year is about campaigning. It is important we beat
:01:59. > :02:04.Miliband, he would be a disastrous Prime Minister. You think the whole
:02:05. > :02:13.modernising strategy was a wrong turn, that is what the article said.
:02:14. > :02:32.Yes. Has that opened the door to UKIP? It has left a lot of people
:02:33. > :02:35.disillusioned with politics. What do you do to get it right? Who was
:02:36. > :03:10.listening to you? Frankly we need to take a more
:03:11. > :03:14.robust series of policies. How many more UKIP defections will there be?
:03:15. > :03:23.I do not think there will be any more. I would be very surprised I
:03:24. > :03:27.know Nigel Farage has a brilliant sense of timing, but I do not think
:03:28. > :03:33.he has got the resources to do that, namely, another Tory MP. So it could
:03:34. > :03:39.be another Labour one, maybe? I think an awful lot will hinge on
:03:40. > :03:44.what happens in Rochester. Because that is not a slam dunk. Clack and
:03:45. > :03:56.unfortunately looks like it will be a walkover for them. But Rochester
:03:57. > :04:02.is a different scene. And so, there could be a kind of Newark situation.
:04:03. > :04:07.When I campaigned in Newark, two labour families I spoke to said they
:04:08. > :04:13.would vote Tory to keep UKIP out. How bad was the Labour conference
:04:14. > :04:17.last week? One politician said after he had a really bad performance that
:04:18. > :04:23.his television performance was suboptimal. I think that would be a
:04:24. > :04:26.good way of describing Ed Miliband's speech. The problem for
:04:27. > :04:29.Ed Miliband in memorising speeches is that we are not auditioning for a
:04:30. > :04:35.new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing for Prime Minister. He failed the
:04:36. > :04:38.Laurence Olivier test, and therefore failed the Prime Minister test. I
:04:39. > :04:42.think the real problem for him was forgetting to mention the deficit.
:04:43. > :04:47.He spoke from the heart about issues which she really cares about, the
:04:48. > :04:51.NHS, the rupture between wages and inflation, and forgot the deficit.
:04:52. > :04:55.Those issues are important, but if you are not addressing things like
:04:56. > :04:59.the deficit, then people are really not going to be listening to your
:05:00. > :05:07.messages on the areas that matter. Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am
:05:08. > :05:10.afraid. I hope that this ends the nonsense of leaders wasting their
:05:11. > :05:15.time learning speeches off by heart. You could learn a Shakespeare
:05:16. > :05:19.play in the time it takes to learn 70 minutes of a leader's speech I
:05:20. > :05:23.think we should just go back to sensible reading what you have
:05:24. > :05:27.written. You can then alter it just beforehand. A lot of things were
:05:28. > :05:32.changing, which is not surprising, but he did not have time to learn
:05:33. > :05:36.it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked once or twice, but that is enough
:05:37. > :05:39.for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories
:05:40. > :05:43.are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since
:05:44. > :05:49.the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is
:05:50. > :05:54.still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron
:05:55. > :05:58.is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time
:05:59. > :06:06.in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --
:06:07. > :06:11.sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top
:06:12. > :06:16.speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and
:06:17. > :06:20.Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in
:06:21. > :06:24.Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we
:06:25. > :06:28.will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George
:06:29. > :06:33.Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone
:06:34. > :06:40.away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is
:06:41. > :06:44.back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories
:06:45. > :06:50.languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last
:06:51. > :06:57.election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn
:06:58. > :07:02.of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point
:07:03. > :07:07.you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have
:07:08. > :07:12.had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,
:07:13. > :07:15.people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is
:07:16. > :07:23.not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to
:07:24. > :07:27.bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,
:07:28. > :07:32.and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it
:07:33. > :07:36.really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when
:07:37. > :07:41.you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking
:07:42. > :07:45.about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had
:07:46. > :07:48.broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said
:07:49. > :07:51.had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of
:07:52. > :07:55.bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which
:07:56. > :07:59.means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,
:08:00. > :08:03.which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they
:08:04. > :08:08.would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote
:08:09. > :08:13.tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been
:08:14. > :08:17.pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,
:08:18. > :08:21.which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big
:08:22. > :08:28.difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a
:08:29. > :08:34.lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of
:08:35. > :08:38.people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going
:08:39. > :08:45.out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that
:08:46. > :08:54.you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last
:08:55. > :09:04.week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not
:09:05. > :09:09.be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something
:09:10. > :09:14.incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25
:09:15. > :09:19.are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he
:09:20. > :09:23.is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up
:09:24. > :09:27.with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like
:09:28. > :09:32.that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not
:09:33. > :09:37.think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a
:09:38. > :09:40.moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where
:09:41. > :09:44.Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with
:09:45. > :09:47.business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of
:09:48. > :09:53.Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is
:09:54. > :10:01.that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.
:10:02. > :10:04.There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home
:10:05. > :10:09.straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices
:10:10. > :10:13.and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI
:10:14. > :10:18.think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my
:10:19. > :10:27.factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the
:10:28. > :10:31.truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,
:10:32. > :10:36.it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would
:10:37. > :10:39.say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:40. > :10:44.finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep
:10:45. > :10:48.trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed
:10:49. > :10:54.Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a
:10:55. > :10:58.vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never
:10:59. > :11:01.found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder
:11:02. > :11:13.whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I
:11:14. > :11:17.hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do
:11:18. > :11:23.actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to
:11:24. > :11:27.insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We
:11:28. > :11:31.have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you
:11:32. > :11:36.are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do
:11:37. > :11:39.the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven
:11:40. > :11:43.months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not
:11:44. > :11:47.that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership
:11:48. > :11:51.speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in
:11:52. > :12:03.with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below
:12:04. > :12:07.9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually
:12:08. > :12:11.talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.
:12:12. > :12:16.Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and
:12:17. > :12:20.Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very
:12:21. > :12:28.right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not
:12:29. > :12:34.the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people
:12:35. > :12:37.do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his
:12:38. > :12:42.party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being
:12:43. > :12:47.this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,
:12:48. > :12:52.really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the
:12:53. > :12:57.metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.
:12:58. > :13:01.And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The
:13:02. > :13:04.trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of
:13:05. > :13:10.Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment
:13:11. > :13:13.you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson
:13:14. > :13:23.to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or
:13:24. > :13:27.lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good
:13:28. > :13:32.Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground
:13:33. > :13:38.to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you
:13:39. > :13:42.to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your
:13:43. > :13:47.lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George
:13:48. > :13:51.Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for
:13:52. > :13:56.The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss
:13:57. > :14:25.that? Remember, if it is Sunday it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye
:14:26. > :14:40.of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.
:14:41. > :14:43.I think I've overdone it with the pistachios
:14:44. > :14:47.and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!