:00:37. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:45.Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?
:00:46. > :00:50.After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.
:00:51. > :00:54.Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency
:00:55. > :01:00.The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.
:01:01. > :01:02.Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms
:01:03. > :01:07.of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?
:01:08. > :01:09.Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet
:01:10. > :01:13.minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.
:01:14. > :01:15.And is 20,000 enough for families on benefits?
:01:16. > :01:18.We look at the new cap and ask if it matches the cost of living
:01:19. > :01:35.And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:36. > :01:38.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:39. > :01:45.Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news
:01:46. > :01:47.of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came
:01:48. > :01:51.to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.
:01:52. > :01:57.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader
:01:58. > :01:59.as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked
:02:00. > :02:03.Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social
:02:04. > :02:06.justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"
:02:07. > :02:10.President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader
:02:11. > :02:14.as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death
:02:15. > :02:17.would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people
:02:18. > :02:22.finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".
:02:23. > :02:23.Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,
:02:24. > :02:27.Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader
:02:28. > :02:29.was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged
:02:30. > :02:44.I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the
:02:45. > :02:49.reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I
:02:50. > :02:56.noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to
:02:57. > :03:01.Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he
:03:02. > :03:04.was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,
:03:05. > :03:07.agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many
:03:08. > :03:12.people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been
:03:13. > :03:16.inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream
:03:17. > :03:20.consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this
:03:21. > :03:26.respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would
:03:27. > :03:31.be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.
:03:32. > :03:34.Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have
:03:35. > :03:40.looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection
:03:41. > :03:45.for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error
:03:46. > :03:49.dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?
:03:50. > :03:56.He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He
:03:57. > :03:59.wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually
:04:00. > :04:02.look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other
:04:03. > :04:09.countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a
:04:10. > :04:12.champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been
:04:13. > :04:18.utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have
:04:19. > :04:22.thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic
:04:23. > :04:29.failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when
:04:30. > :04:34.Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the
:04:35. > :04:41.debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any
:04:42. > :04:52.criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There
:04:53. > :04:55.were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would
:04:56. > :05:05.have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban
:05:06. > :05:09.solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It
:05:10. > :05:13.existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,
:05:14. > :05:17.who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday
:05:18. > :05:23.saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the
:05:24. > :05:28.world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He
:05:29. > :05:35.never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks
:05:36. > :05:42.ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The
:05:43. > :05:48.lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated
:05:49. > :05:55.stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was
:05:56. > :06:01.working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there
:06:02. > :06:06.will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet
:06:07. > :06:12.and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say
:06:13. > :06:28.it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism
:06:29. > :06:34.that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime
:06:35. > :06:41.Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to
:06:42. > :06:45.open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing
:06:46. > :06:49.brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.
:06:50. > :06:56.When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying
:06:57. > :07:01.the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as
:07:02. > :07:04.all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a
:07:05. > :07:09.leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either
:07:10. > :07:16.decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it
:07:17. > :07:20.was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure
:07:21. > :07:25.worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.
:07:26. > :07:28.There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they
:07:29. > :07:35.sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris
:07:36. > :07:43.Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to
:07:44. > :07:46.deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.
:07:47. > :07:56.And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr
:07:57. > :07:58.Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.
:07:59. > :08:00.That was what made it so fascinating.
:08:01. > :08:04.Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS
:08:05. > :08:07.in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020
:08:08. > :08:10.on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth
:08:11. > :08:17.Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling
:08:18. > :08:20."Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,
:08:21. > :08:26.but some of the proposals are already running into local
:08:27. > :08:29.opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.
:08:30. > :08:35.Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.
:08:36. > :08:39.But east of England ambulance call operators
:08:40. > :08:43.they're sending an early intervention vehicle
:08:44. > :08:50.with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.
:08:51. > :08:52.It's being piloted here for over 65s with
:08:53. > :08:58.When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be
:08:59. > :09:01.treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.
:09:02. > :09:03.Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,
:09:04. > :09:06.taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,
:09:07. > :09:12.So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided
:09:13. > :09:25.The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able
:09:26. > :09:28.to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,
:09:29. > :09:30.to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand
:09:31. > :09:33.where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how
:09:34. > :09:38.best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems
:09:39. > :09:40.that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.
:09:41. > :09:42.This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how
:09:43. > :09:50.You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.
:09:51. > :09:56.The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.
:09:57. > :09:58.What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.
:09:59. > :10:01.Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went
:10:02. > :10:03.through after broad public and political consultation
:10:04. > :10:07.with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.
:10:08. > :10:11.It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS
:10:12. > :10:17.trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.
:10:18. > :10:20.It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide
:10:21. > :10:27.The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS
:10:28. > :10:33.in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion
:10:34. > :10:35.worth of efficiencies across the country.
:10:36. > :10:38.In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health
:10:39. > :10:40.and care partnerships, and each one will provide
:10:41. > :10:45.a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,
:10:46. > :10:48.provide better services and save money.
:10:49. > :10:53.So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people
:10:54. > :10:55.in the health service and local government,
:10:56. > :11:02.The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending
:11:03. > :11:05.growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.
:11:06. > :11:12.STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way
:11:13. > :11:18.But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number
:11:19. > :11:23.of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle
:11:24. > :11:27.ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed
:11:28. > :11:31.This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his
:11:32. > :11:39.I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close
:11:40. > :11:42.all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out
:11:43. > :11:44.of the acute sector who are elderly and looking
:11:45. > :11:48.That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,
:11:49. > :11:56.All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,
:11:57. > :12:02.But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.
:12:03. > :12:04.The Government's sustainability and transformation plans
:12:05. > :12:10.for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.
:12:11. > :12:13.The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings
:12:14. > :12:17.within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.
:12:18. > :12:21.There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.
:12:22. > :12:24.Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week
:12:25. > :12:29.about the importance of community hospitals in general,
:12:30. > :12:35.These are proposals out to consultation.
:12:36. > :12:40.What could happen if these plans get blocked?
:12:41. > :12:43.If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come
:12:44. > :12:48.to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned
:12:49. > :12:50.deterioration and services becoming unstable and service
:12:51. > :12:57.The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement
:12:58. > :13:04.but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs
:13:05. > :13:05.are in the interests of local people.
:13:06. > :13:08.Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England
:13:09. > :13:09.to push through these controversial regional plans,
:13:10. > :13:16.which will soon face public scrutiny.
:13:17. > :13:21.We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,
:13:22. > :13:24.I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,
:13:25. > :13:42.Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of
:13:43. > :13:45.efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of
:13:46. > :13:50.independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22
:13:51. > :13:54.billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you
:13:55. > :13:57.drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have
:13:58. > :14:01.been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that
:14:02. > :14:05.some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community
:14:06. > :14:09.pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000
:14:10. > :14:13.pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and
:14:14. > :14:18.GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,
:14:19. > :14:25.which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a
:14:26. > :14:31.local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these
:14:32. > :14:35.efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from
:14:36. > :14:42.Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve
:14:43. > :14:48.health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable
:14:49. > :14:52.transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical
:14:53. > :14:56.health, mental health and social care, for those services to
:14:57. > :14:59.collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented
:15:00. > :15:05.system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground
:15:06. > :15:09.has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,
:15:10. > :15:14.the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By
:15:15. > :15:18.2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to
:15:19. > :15:24.redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the
:15:25. > :15:26.money in. So of course, getting these services working better
:15:27. > :15:30.together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would
:15:31. > :15:35.have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the
:15:36. > :15:41.last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is
:15:42. > :15:47.an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?
:15:48. > :15:54.Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22
:15:55. > :16:00.billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.
:16:01. > :16:04.But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they
:16:05. > :16:10.said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have
:16:11. > :16:15.changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by
:16:16. > :16:21.2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by
:16:22. > :16:25.20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually
:16:26. > :16:30.transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the
:16:31. > :16:34.commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been
:16:35. > :16:39.cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year
:16:40. > :16:42.project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the
:16:43. > :16:48.Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week
:16:49. > :16:55.there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the
:16:56. > :17:00.efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by
:17:01. > :17:04.2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now
:17:05. > :17:08.for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with
:17:09. > :17:13.everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers
:17:14. > :17:20.and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I
:17:21. > :17:27.had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they
:17:28. > :17:31.expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by
:17:32. > :17:36.now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?
:17:37. > :17:41.To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The
:17:42. > :17:48.budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like
:17:49. > :17:59.co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a
:18:00. > :18:05.plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in
:18:06. > :18:09.2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is
:18:10. > :18:15.committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently
:18:16. > :18:20.John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are
:18:21. > :18:25.talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current
:18:26. > :18:28.spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the
:18:29. > :18:36.money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If
:18:37. > :18:47.you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from
:18:48. > :18:51.the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?
:18:52. > :18:59.That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for
:19:00. > :19:04.Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to
:19:05. > :19:07.give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the
:19:08. > :19:12.Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do
:19:13. > :19:17.it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give
:19:18. > :19:20.the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like
:19:21. > :19:24.any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what
:19:25. > :19:30.the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.
:19:31. > :19:33.I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election
:19:34. > :19:36.with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has
:19:37. > :19:41.been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.
:19:42. > :19:46.You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not
:19:47. > :19:51.a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment
:19:52. > :19:56.to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting
:19:57. > :20:01.a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about
:20:02. > :20:05.4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that
:20:06. > :20:09.substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have
:20:10. > :20:18.access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to
:20:19. > :20:22.be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap
:20:23. > :20:28.in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what
:20:29. > :20:33.this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an
:20:34. > :20:38.efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we
:20:39. > :20:43.agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see
:20:44. > :20:50.productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through
:20:51. > :20:57.investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.
:20:58. > :21:04.One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They
:21:05. > :21:07.are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe
:21:08. > :21:11.that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that
:21:12. > :21:15.contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking
:21:16. > :21:21.about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30
:21:22. > :21:28.billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend
:21:29. > :21:32.more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper
:21:33. > :21:36.care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40
:21:37. > :21:41.billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the
:21:42. > :21:45.account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that
:21:46. > :21:48.and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with
:21:49. > :21:53.that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we
:21:54. > :21:56.are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the
:21:57. > :22:04.investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.
:22:05. > :22:10.The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in
:22:11. > :22:13.A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in
:22:14. > :22:18.hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save
:22:19. > :22:21.the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the
:22:22. > :22:25.Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What
:22:26. > :22:29.I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your
:22:30. > :22:34.reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi
:22:35. > :22:40.Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger
:22:41. > :22:47.of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree
:22:48. > :22:53.with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a
:22:54. > :22:57.result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just
:22:58. > :23:01.going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of
:23:02. > :23:06.these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see
:23:07. > :23:09.if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they
:23:10. > :23:12.have the support of local authorities because they now have a
:23:13. > :23:16.role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the
:23:17. > :23:21.right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.
:23:22. > :23:24.We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they
:23:25. > :23:30.don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,
:23:31. > :23:34.you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with
:23:35. > :23:40.finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are
:23:41. > :23:46.cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like
:23:47. > :23:50.5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector
:23:51. > :23:54.in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long
:23:55. > :23:59.term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very
:24:00. > :24:03.sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the
:24:04. > :24:08.sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,
:24:09. > :24:14.which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy
:24:15. > :24:19.nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of
:24:20. > :24:25.the other countries, European countries included, we need to put
:24:26. > :24:30.up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the
:24:31. > :24:36.Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me
:24:37. > :24:40.down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up
:24:41. > :24:44.with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European
:24:45. > :24:47.average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,
:24:48. > :24:54.but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need
:24:55. > :24:56.substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was
:24:57. > :25:01.extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the
:25:02. > :25:06.Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,
:25:07. > :25:10.whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to
:25:11. > :25:12.us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.
:25:13. > :25:15.Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations
:25:16. > :25:17.before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait
:25:18. > :25:20.for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote
:25:21. > :25:23.If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats
:25:24. > :25:26.and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU
:25:27. > :25:28.referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before
:25:29. > :25:32.And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested
:25:33. > :25:35.that the referendum result could be reversed.
:25:36. > :25:38.In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,
:25:39. > :25:41.Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,
:25:42. > :25:43.having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis
:25:44. > :25:50.John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting
:25:51. > :25:52.of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit
:25:53. > :25:54.were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".
:25:55. > :25:57.He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"
:25:58. > :26:01.That prompted the former Conservative leader
:26:02. > :26:04.Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.
:26:05. > :26:06.He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply
:26:07. > :26:09.because they disagree with the original result does
:26:10. > :26:14.seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."
:26:15. > :26:17.So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms
:26:18. > :26:21.of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?
:26:22. > :26:25.Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect
:26:26. > :26:28.the will of the people and that means they must have their say
:26:29. > :26:32.in a referendum on the terms of the deal."
:26:33. > :26:35.But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support
:26:36. > :26:40.One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.
:26:41. > :26:44.He backs the idea of a second referendum.
:26:45. > :26:47.But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,
:26:48. > :26:49."Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting
:26:50. > :26:57.To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum
:26:58. > :27:00.on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two
:27:01. > :27:04.In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,
:27:05. > :27:06.and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister
:27:07. > :27:18.Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have
:27:19. > :27:23.spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or
:27:24. > :27:30.you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the
:27:31. > :27:34.referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I
:27:35. > :27:38.said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we
:27:39. > :27:44.will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but
:27:45. > :27:51.we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the
:27:52. > :27:58.British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would
:27:59. > :28:02.then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's
:28:03. > :28:07.lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,
:28:08. > :28:11.you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on
:28:12. > :28:19.immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many
:28:20. > :28:25.fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be
:28:26. > :28:29.a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many
:28:30. > :28:34.occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different
:28:35. > :28:39.thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be
:28:40. > :28:42.true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the
:28:43. > :28:47.destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about
:28:48. > :28:51.the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be
:28:52. > :28:56.appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft
:28:57. > :29:00.Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more
:29:01. > :29:06.difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign
:29:07. > :29:11.but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on
:29:12. > :29:14.the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on
:29:15. > :29:17.what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and
:29:18. > :29:26.putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous
:29:27. > :29:30.idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an
:29:31. > :29:34.impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make
:29:35. > :29:39.sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard
:29:40. > :29:43.Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum
:29:44. > :29:49.campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means
:29:50. > :29:53.making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected
:29:54. > :29:57.politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting
:29:58. > :30:00.control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was
:30:01. > :30:06.clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million
:30:07. > :30:12.votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more
:30:13. > :30:17.than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14
:30:18. > :30:21.million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very
:30:22. > :30:25.clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we
:30:26. > :30:29.going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to
:30:30. > :30:31.trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better
:30:32. > :30:41.place. OK, I need to get a debate going.
:30:42. > :30:45.Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was
:30:46. > :30:47.going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a
:30:48. > :30:50.second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the
:30:51. > :30:55.worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a
:30:56. > :30:59.ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could
:31:00. > :31:02.go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the
:31:03. > :31:06.European Union is less important than the opinion of the British
:31:07. > :31:11.people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me
:31:12. > :31:17.precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain
:31:18. > :31:19.voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson
:31:20. > :31:25.and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the
:31:26. > :31:28.range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.
:31:29. > :31:32.There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,
:31:33. > :31:37.getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,
:31:38. > :31:44.this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.
:31:45. > :31:51.The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our
:31:52. > :31:54.laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of
:31:55. > :32:02.what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would
:32:03. > :32:07.be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the
:32:08. > :32:10.hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The
:32:11. > :32:17.biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British
:32:18. > :32:21.history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally
:32:22. > :32:26.proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a
:32:27. > :32:32.strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks
:32:33. > :32:43.like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.
:32:44. > :32:51.He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct
:32:52. > :32:56.possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a
:32:57. > :33:00.second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on
:33:01. > :33:04.ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British
:33:05. > :33:10.people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and
:33:11. > :33:20.keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to
:33:21. > :33:23.that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying
:33:24. > :33:33.attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have
:33:34. > :33:37.to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said
:33:38. > :33:43.that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,
:33:44. > :33:47.they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European
:33:48. > :33:52.Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the
:33:53. > :34:04.process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why
:34:05. > :34:08.Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to
:34:09. > :34:17.ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote
:34:18. > :34:28.by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it
:34:29. > :34:33.best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would
:34:34. > :34:37.have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because
:34:38. > :34:46.I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.
:34:47. > :34:52.Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The
:34:53. > :34:56.central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a
:34:57. > :35:01.destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if
:35:02. > :35:07.it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be
:35:08. > :35:10.undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on
:35:11. > :35:14.the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain
:35:15. > :35:20.members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs
:35:21. > :35:25.union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude
:35:26. > :35:27.towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the
:35:28. > :35:31.government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have
:35:32. > :35:37.no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental
:35:38. > :35:44.case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a
:35:45. > :35:51.clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment
:35:52. > :35:54.figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do
:35:55. > :36:01.to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not
:36:02. > :36:04.delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,
:36:05. > :36:10.wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people
:36:11. > :36:14.who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it
:36:15. > :36:18.will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the
:36:19. > :36:27.whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is
:36:28. > :36:30.very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the
:36:31. > :36:39.answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and
:36:40. > :36:45.French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it
:36:46. > :36:50.not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it
:36:51. > :36:53.would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I
:36:54. > :36:56.think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't
:36:57. > :37:00.been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in
:37:01. > :37:03.Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.
:37:04. > :37:08.They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic
:37:09. > :37:12.process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen
:37:13. > :37:19.suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the
:37:20. > :37:24.government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to
:37:25. > :37:33.listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,
:37:34. > :37:38.as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second
:37:39. > :37:41.referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it
:37:42. > :37:48.there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have
:37:49. > :37:51.eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!
:37:52. > :37:53.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:54. > :38:04.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:05. > :38:07.Hello, I'm Julia George, and this is the Sunday Politics
:38:08. > :38:14.Coming up later, the living on hand-outs.
:38:15. > :38:16.The maximum amount of benefit money families can receive drops
:38:17. > :38:18.considerably this month and we will consider the consequences.
:38:19. > :38:22.Joining me in the studio today to talk about that
:38:23. > :38:25.and other issues, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions,
:38:26. > :38:26.Damian Green, he is also the Conservative
:38:27. > :38:29.And alongside Damian is the Labour leader
:38:30. > :38:31.of the Hastings Borough Council, Peter Chowney.
:38:32. > :38:35.Sometimes, it is what the Chancellor doesn't say that is most
:38:36. > :38:39.This week, in his first Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond
:38:40. > :38:43.confirmed ?50 million per year for grammar schools,
:38:44. > :38:46.but there was no news for the fair funding formula for schools
:38:47. > :38:49.which were such a bone of contention in the South East.
:38:50. > :38:54.So what does this tell us about the Government
:38:55. > :38:58.The Government's education reforms has raised the standards
:38:59. > :39:00.and expanded opportunity with 1.4 million more children.
:39:01. > :39:04.Children now in good or outstanding schools.
:39:05. > :39:07.And the new capital funding that I provided today for grammar schools
:39:08. > :39:13.How can a Government seriously talk about supporting a 21st-century
:39:14. > :39:15.economy when they are planning to put tens of millions
:39:16. > :39:21.into the failed 20th-century policy of grammar schools?
:39:22. > :39:26.Segregating our children at an early age.
:39:27. > :39:37.Your Government, Damian Green, talks about a country that
:39:38. > :39:40.About people who are just about managing,
:39:41. > :39:42.about social mobility, and then the only education
:39:43. > :39:44.funding that is mentioned in the Autumn Statement
:39:45. > :39:46.is ?50 million for one type of school on the,
:39:47. > :39:51.Well, because that is one of the elements of the much wider
:39:52. > :39:54.plan, which is working to improve education for everyone.
:39:55. > :39:58.We've got nearly 1.5 million children more in good
:39:59. > :40:01.or outstanding schools than where in 2010.
:40:02. > :40:04.Part of the next phase - only part of the next phase,
:40:05. > :40:07.an important part of the next phase - is to allow grammar schools
:40:08. > :40:09.to expand, grammar schools in many cases provide an excellent education
:40:10. > :40:11.for children from all backgrounds.
:40:12. > :40:18.But expanding grammar schools wasn't in your last manifesto.
:40:19. > :40:22.And schools like Tanbridge and Forest School in Horsham Have
:40:23. > :40:25.35or 36 children in a class that is designed for 30.
:40:26. > :40:27.I wonder how those parents feel about those ?50 million only
:40:28. > :40:30.Well, we have said that we are dealing
:40:31. > :40:37.As you say, the announcement wasn't in the Autumn Statement,
:40:38. > :40:39.but you wouldn't particularly expect it in the Autumn Statement.
:40:40. > :40:43.I think some of your colleagues who are in West Sussex may well have
:40:44. > :40:44.appreciated some transition funding on this.
:40:45. > :40:49.And they are finding it difficult to support your wider issue,
:40:50. > :40:52.and Tim Loughton said in a Westminster debate this month,
:40:53. > :40:57.it is very hard for constituency MPs to support the Government's
:40:58. > :40:59.programme on such things as grammar schools which will divert funds
:41:00. > :41:03.when we need those funds now to plug the gaps in all schools of whatever
:41:04. > :41:12.Those are your own Conservative colleagues saying things like that.
:41:13. > :41:15.That is one of my colleagues, but I know that across Kent
:41:16. > :41:17.there is widespread support for grammar schools
:41:18. > :41:20.And also we see the whole education system in action.
:41:21. > :41:23.So underfunding in West Sussex isn't a problem for you?
:41:24. > :41:26.I mean, everyone wants a new funding formula and the Government
:41:27. > :41:27.is committed to producing a new funding formula
:41:28. > :41:30.because the existing formula has lasted for too long.
:41:31. > :41:36.And yet, there is ?15 million for grammar schools,
:41:37. > :41:38.which take a very small proportion of the most disadvantaged children.
:41:39. > :41:43.That doesn't look like a Government that is generally
:41:44. > :41:52.I don't think this is either grammar schools or something else.
:41:53. > :41:54.The whole funding formula is a much bigger issue than ?50 million.
:41:55. > :41:56.Because that involves restructuring the school budgets
:41:57. > :42:00.The point is being made by many counties in the South East
:42:01. > :42:02.as well as a particularly rural counties in other parts
:42:03. > :42:05.of the country that the current funding formula doesn't
:42:06. > :42:10.And that is why the Government is committed to changing it.
:42:11. > :42:12.I don't think it is one of the other, we want both.
:42:13. > :42:17.Disadvantaged children do get a real boost in grammar schools
:42:18. > :42:20.and that is one of the reasons Theresa May is so keen on them.
:42:21. > :42:28.They nearly catch up with privileged children.
:42:29. > :42:30.Some other schools in Hastings have among the worst GCSE
:42:31. > :42:34.I bet there in Hastings that would love a grammar school?
:42:35. > :42:37.I'm certainly not a fan of grammar schools myself.
:42:38. > :42:49.We don't have them in Hastings, don't have in East Sussex at all.
:42:50. > :42:52.I think segregating children at the age of 11...
:42:53. > :42:54.It's all very well saying grammar schools do well and perform well,
:42:55. > :43:04.but it's all the other children that don't get into the grammar school
:43:05. > :43:07.I think that are not getting good deal out of it.
:43:08. > :43:09.And also, when you compare the results of grammar schools
:43:10. > :43:12.would say the top 20% of children, students in a good comprehensive,
:43:13. > :43:14.grammar schools really don't do as well.
:43:15. > :43:16.I just don't think it's a good solution.
:43:17. > :43:20.Staying with money and education, lots of children miss out, don't
:43:21. > :43:24.We're going to come onto welfare in just a moment.
:43:25. > :43:28.They miss out on free school meals, and as a result they miss out
:43:29. > :43:30.on ?1000 per pupil on pupil premium money.
:43:31. > :43:33.There is an amendment to the Digital economy Bill that is being voted
:43:34. > :43:37.It allows for children eligible for free school meals to be
:43:38. > :43:40.I haven't looked at that amendment yet.
:43:41. > :43:45.Clearly, if someone is entitled to free school meals,
:43:46. > :43:49.It would seem strange that they wouldn't take that up.
:43:50. > :43:51.But that funding, that ?1000 can make such a difference
:43:52. > :43:55.So therefore, that is an incentive for the school to act on it.
:43:56. > :43:58.But at the moment, they have to rely on parents, some of whom feel
:43:59. > :44:00.stigmatised in applying for free school meals.
:44:01. > :44:04.Wouldn't you want people to have the money
:44:05. > :44:08.I'm not conscious of people being stigmatised for being
:44:09. > :44:11.That feels like a very old-fashioned concept.
:44:12. > :44:13.So why do so many people fail to claim it?
:44:14. > :44:15.The pupil premium that was introduced by the coalition
:44:16. > :44:17.Government has been widely welcomed, both by parents
:44:18. > :44:23.It does enable disadvantaged pupils to get an excellent education.
:44:24. > :44:25.If you believe in it, wouldn't you make it easier
:44:26. > :44:28.for families who are entitled to it, and schools who are
:44:29. > :44:39.I think there are various ways you can achieve that.
:44:40. > :44:42.A lot of it is precisely if there is stigma,
:44:43. > :44:44.which I rather doubt, then clearly take that away.
:44:45. > :44:47.And because there is such an incentive on the schools to get
:44:48. > :44:49.the pupil premium money, I would have thought schools
:44:50. > :44:50.would be encouraging families to do this.
:44:51. > :44:54.You'll have the chance to vote and we'll find out how you did
:44:55. > :45:00.There is a big change coming to some families who receive benefits,
:45:01. > :45:02.in particular those who are not in work.
:45:03. > :45:05.The Government has put a limit on how much any household can claim.
:45:06. > :45:07.This month, the maximum amount is being reduced.
:45:08. > :45:09.Campaigners and local authorities are expressing
:45:10. > :45:14.their concerns about what it could mean in practice.
:45:15. > :45:16.Is this the queue for the food bank?
:45:17. > :45:28.This is a scene from Ken Loach's film, I, daniel Blake.
:45:29. > :45:31.Which has put the benefit system and how it affects people's
:45:32. > :45:40.So we've got one adult and two children?
:45:41. > :45:47.It's a fictional account of a visit to a food bank.
:45:48. > :45:50.But for Chris Bargrave, such a visit is an everyday reality.
:45:51. > :45:52.With four children, Chris and his family already struggle
:45:53. > :46:00.And under the new lower benefits cap introduced earlier this month,
:46:01. > :46:05.they have lost ?77 per week and are falling into rent arrears.
:46:06. > :46:07.The Government says the policy encourages people to find a job.
:46:08. > :46:10.That is something Chris says he just can't do.
:46:11. > :46:15.But because it's not the higher rate lupus,
:46:16. > :46:35.And the wife has lupus, which is a lung disease.
:46:36. > :46:38.The benefits cap was introduced in 2013 and limits how much money
:46:39. > :46:40.any household can receive in certain benefits.
:46:41. > :46:42.Until this month, the maximum was ?26,000 per year.
:46:43. > :46:46.That is just under ?385 per week for couples
:46:47. > :46:53.This food bank in Ramsgate, run out of the back of a charity shop,
:46:54. > :46:55.was set up by Kerry Keating four years ago.
:46:56. > :46:58.It gives out around 50 food parcels per week.
:46:59. > :47:05.She says the number of people needing the charity lies help
:47:06. > :47:09.increased after first cap came into force.
:47:10. > :47:12.And expects to see a similar rise under the new lower limit.
:47:13. > :47:13.The job opportunities are not out there.
:47:14. > :47:19.This is what we need, job opportunities that are there.
:47:20. > :47:21.The prospects to be there before they place these
:47:22. > :47:26.They are not going to see such a huge cost in trying
:47:27. > :47:28.to fix all the problems where they are setting people
:47:29. > :47:38.I continuously say the Government keep setting up the most
:47:39. > :47:42.The risk of homelessness is going to be through the roof.
:47:43. > :47:46.The lowering of the benefits cap may disproportionately affect families
:47:47. > :47:50.That is because the level of the cap is the same
:47:51. > :47:55.Social and affordable rents in this part of the world tend to be higher.
:47:56. > :47:58.So someone living in the South East could pay between ?20
:47:59. > :48:01.and ?50 more per week than someone in the north-east.
:48:02. > :48:03.Under the old cap, nearly 800 households in the South East
:48:04. > :48:08.were affected, according to the most recent figures.
:48:09. > :48:11.Nearly 5000 households are expected to be affected by the new lower cap,
:48:12. > :48:21.In Brighton and Hove, the number of households affected
:48:22. > :48:27.The council leader says that will place even more financial
:48:28. > :48:30.pressure on already stretched local authority budgets.
:48:31. > :48:32.Lowering the benefits cap is going to mean even more
:48:33. > :48:36.These are the people just about managing that the
:48:37. > :48:56.That it seems to be doing more to harm than to help.
:48:57. > :48:59.We will spend millions more on helping people that have been cut
:49:00. > :49:01.Having the support pulled out from under them.
:49:02. > :49:04.The Government says discretionary housing payments will be provided
:49:05. > :49:06.to councils to enable them to help those people affected
:49:07. > :49:08.by the changes, and that the policy is fair.
:49:09. > :49:11.The level of the new benefits cap, they say, is close
:49:12. > :49:14.Joining us now is Imran Hussain from the Child
:49:15. > :49:19.It seems obvious that the 20,000 benefits cap will bite hardest
:49:20. > :49:21.that being for most of us are biggest outgoing.
:49:22. > :49:31.It bites hard in London, but obviously the cap has been
:49:32. > :49:34.lowered their not as far as other parts of the country.
:49:35. > :49:38.As we all know, house prices, rental prices
:49:39. > :49:42.We will pick up with Peter Chowney in a little while.
:49:43. > :49:47.He has four kids and another on the way.
:49:48. > :49:51.Is the typical of the people most affected in the sense
:49:52. > :49:56.Actually, so far we have seen the benefit cap was meant to be
:49:57. > :49:59.a policy which is about getting people who can't work -
:50:00. > :50:07.Only 14% of people are in that position at the moment.
:50:08. > :50:16.Only 14% of people on the benefits cap are on jobseeker's allowance.
:50:17. > :50:18.Most people on the benefits cap are lone parents
:50:19. > :50:21.It is difficult for them to move into work.
:50:22. > :50:25.And also people who are on illness or disability benefits.
:50:26. > :50:28.Again, it is difficult for them to move into work and the
:50:29. > :50:31.It is difficult for those families.
:50:32. > :50:38.To take someone like Chris, someone watching might wonder
:50:39. > :50:39.inevitably, why is someone struggling on benefits
:50:40. > :50:44.Don't we have to all take a little bit of
:50:45. > :50:58.In Chris' position, he has a number of children and we as a society
:50:59. > :51:00.have a obligation to look after the children.
:51:01. > :51:03.We are not saying those children should be punished because we don't
:51:04. > :51:09.There seems to be pretty robust public support of the benefits cap.
:51:10. > :51:11.You aren't going back to 2013, but there was a poll
:51:12. > :51:14.for the Department for Work and Pensions, Damian's department,
:51:15. > :51:16.73% of people supported the benefits cap.
:51:17. > :51:22.That is pretty conclusive in terms of public conviction on this?
:51:23. > :51:27.Because it has been sold as a policy to stop people raking
:51:28. > :51:33.Whereas the reality is, we are talking about families
:51:34. > :51:41.who are very far away from the labour market.
:51:42. > :51:43.Who find it very difficult to find work.
:51:44. > :51:48.They are being penalised, that is the reality of it.
:51:49. > :51:52.I think the public would also be, I hope, persuaded if they knew more
:51:53. > :51:56.about the fallout of what is actually happening to the families.
:51:57. > :51:59.Also we are seeing in terms of the food banks and local
:52:00. > :52:00.authorities having to pick up the pieces.
:52:01. > :52:03.The damage, the fallout for the benefits cap is massive.
:52:04. > :52:05.We heard Warren Morgan saying the fallout in Brighton
:52:06. > :52:08.And yet the new cap hasn't kicked in.
:52:09. > :52:10.Damian Green, it seems that families and therefore
:52:11. > :52:13.Is that what supporting people who are just
:52:14. > :52:22.First of all, the principal, the widely supported principal
:52:23. > :52:27.of the benefits cap, is that the system has to be fair
:52:28. > :52:30.to those who are in receipt of benefits and also far to those
:52:31. > :52:32.who pay the benefits, in other words taxpayers.
:52:33. > :52:38.The facts are that, of the people who were affected by the benefits
:52:39. > :52:42.cap at its higher level, 23,500 of those are now in work.
:52:43. > :52:46.It does work to encourage people to get back into work.
:52:47. > :52:48.This is the best for them and their families.
:52:49. > :52:54.In the South East, more specifically, 30%, nearly one third
:52:55. > :52:57.of the people affected by the benefits cap
:52:58. > :52:59.in the South East have got into work.
:53:00. > :53:03.People in control of their own lives.
:53:04. > :53:12.Let's take a single mum who has a 12-month-old baby.
:53:13. > :53:14.And unless she works, she is hit by the cap.
:53:15. > :53:17.But there is no free childcare and even then, until her child
:53:18. > :53:20.is two years old, it is only for 38 weeks of the year.
:53:21. > :53:22.We are providing more free childcare.
:53:23. > :53:26.But not until your child is two years old.
:53:27. > :53:29.And the cap doesn't bite, in the South East, you would have
:53:30. > :53:35.To get the equivalent of the ?20,000 in benefits
:53:36. > :53:39.Many people will be watching this programme thinking,
:53:40. > :53:43.that is a reasonable amount of money.
:53:44. > :53:51.There are plenty of people working very had earning
:53:52. > :53:58.That is the relevant figure it seems to me to try
:53:59. > :54:01.Peter, have you seen any impact in your town?
:54:02. > :54:03.We heard Warren Morgan saying they are expecting more,
:54:04. > :54:06.not just on the town but on the council as well.
:54:07. > :54:11.So far, the benefits cap hasn't had a huge impact.
:54:12. > :54:14.Going down to 20,000 will make a difference.
:54:15. > :54:16.Certainly in the poorer parts of town.
:54:17. > :54:19.We have extremes of deprivation in Hastings.
:54:20. > :54:21.The poorest neighbourhood in Hastings is the 11th most
:54:22. > :54:30.That is right here in the heart of the supposedly
:54:31. > :54:33.You have really big long-term problems.
:54:34. > :54:34.People with intergenerational unemployment.
:54:35. > :54:38.Mental health problems, lack of skills, lack of education.
:54:39. > :54:41.It makes it hard for people to get into work, even where they are
:54:42. > :54:47.That is precisely why, as was mentioned in the feature,
:54:48. > :54:49.we provided ?1 billion of discretionary housing payments
:54:50. > :55:01.Absolutely, we get the point about potential homelessness.
:55:02. > :55:05.That is why we give a lot of money from central Government and local
:55:06. > :55:07.government precisely to keep people in their homes.
:55:08. > :55:10.That is why we produced a Green Paper on work and have
:55:11. > :55:15.There is ?1 billion of discretionary payments.
:55:16. > :55:28.There is some help to local authorities in terms
:55:29. > :55:30.of discretionary housing payments, but every local council it
:55:31. > :55:33.will go to, every charity, will say that is not enough.
:55:34. > :55:35.A majority of local councils don't take up 100%
:55:36. > :55:36.of their discretionary housing payments.
:55:37. > :55:38.So it is not true that local authorities are overwhelmed.
:55:39. > :55:49.Most of them don't take up all the money.
:55:50. > :55:51.Let's pick up on austerity and who it hits.
:55:52. > :55:58.You mention fairness quite a lot yourself, Damian.
:55:59. > :56:00.It has been hitting families more than pensioners.
:56:01. > :56:02.There is speculation, and it was mentioned
:56:03. > :56:04.in the Autumn Statement, that pensions triple lock.
:56:05. > :56:06.It guarantees for people, a quick reminder, it guarantees
:56:07. > :56:08.that it goes up every year, the state pension.
:56:09. > :56:11.The hire of inflation, the increase of average earnings of 2.5%.
:56:12. > :56:13.Your predecessor, Iain Duncan Smith, the former pensions Minister,
:56:14. > :56:16.Ros Altmann, both call for the triple lock to be ditched.
:56:17. > :56:20.It is the manifesto commitment and we stick
:56:21. > :56:26.Each of the lock will last for this Parliament.
:56:27. > :56:28.All policies are looked at in every Parliament.
:56:29. > :56:31.It is too early to start writing our next manifesto.
:56:32. > :56:32.Hold on, instinctively, you have talked about
:56:33. > :56:43.Welfare policy is not something you can just that instinct on.
:56:44. > :56:49.I would make the point that one of the great achievements,
:56:50. > :56:53.and that is not a partisan point, it is an achievement
:56:54. > :56:56.in what has happened in social policy in the last 30 years,
:56:57. > :56:58.has been a massive reduction in pension and poverty.
:56:59. > :57:01.In the 1980s, 40% of pensioners in this country within poverty.
:57:02. > :57:04.I don't want to put that in jeopardy.
:57:05. > :57:07.But Peter, Labour is in a muddle on this one.
:57:08. > :57:08.The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, said
:57:09. > :57:11.this week he would be disappointed if it was scrapped.
:57:12. > :57:12.Frank Field, Work and Pensions Committee chair,
:57:13. > :57:15.says it is time for it to be shelved.
:57:16. > :57:20.I think it should be retained for the foreseeable future.
:57:21. > :57:22.Whether into the long distant future, you need that
:57:23. > :57:25.system or another system, all policies have to be reviewed.
:57:26. > :57:27.At the moment, I think it is that triple lock
:57:28. > :57:29.that has got people, pensioners, out of poverty,
:57:30. > :57:35.and that started way back with the Labour Government.
:57:36. > :57:39.It would be a pity if it was ditched.
:57:40. > :57:42.Gentlemen, grammar school boys all, thank you very much indeed.
:57:43. > :57:53.Some of the news you may have missed.
:57:54. > :57:57.The University of Brighton is trying to find a way to continue running
:57:58. > :58:10.There were demonstrations by students and lecturers
:58:11. > :58:12.when it was announced that the campus would close.
:58:13. > :58:15.Managers say there are not enough sugar to sustain
:58:16. > :58:18.A top by a controversial journalist at a school
:58:19. > :58:21.Simon Langton Grammar School For Boys Where contacted
:58:22. > :58:24.by the Department for Education's counter extremism units.
:58:25. > :58:26.Milo Yiannopoulos is known for his extreme views on race,
:58:27. > :58:32.Some pupils were disappointed that they were denied
:58:33. > :58:36.For too long, you have been able to shut down opposing
:58:37. > :58:40.The politics of people you don't like by saying I am offended.
:58:41. > :58:43.And people who falsely wear military medals to claim that they are war
:58:44. > :58:45.heroes could face prison under a new private members bill.
:58:46. > :58:48.It was put forward by Dartford MP Gareth Johnson and was debated
:58:49. > :58:52.I think people need confidence that when they see people wearing medals
:58:53. > :58:54.at remembrance services wherever, that those medals have been
:58:55. > :59:01.Peter Chowney, let's pick up on the situation with Hastings
:59:02. > :59:05.Is there hope for people who want to see higher
:59:06. > :59:17.We were disappointed with University of Brighton's decision.
:59:18. > :59:22.I think they didn't put enough effort into making that campus work.
:59:23. > :59:23.It is could be a good university town.
:59:24. > :59:26.We determine it should stay one and will be
:59:27. > :59:29.We heard from, in our reports, students on the news saying
:59:30. > :59:32.they didn't want to pay ?9,000 per year to be put
:59:33. > :59:35.They feel demeaned by going back into an FE college.
:59:36. > :59:40.The University Centre that is being proposed
:59:41. > :59:45.We do need a proper university in Hastings.
:59:46. > :59:49.Sussex University may be a solution, but they say it is not something
:59:50. > :59:52.Do you think you could twist the arm?
:59:53. > :59:58.The chair of the governors expressed in the chamber of commerce
:59:59. > :00:08.Certainly not officially, we have not had discussions with him,
:00:09. > :00:12.Very quick thought on Milo Yiannopoulos and the school.
:00:13. > :00:14.Damian Green, you know how bright and robust the children
:00:15. > :00:17.They wanted the opportunity to challenge him.
:00:18. > :00:21.As an understand, it wasn't closed down by the Department
:00:22. > :00:24.for Education, it was a decision in the end by the school.
:00:25. > :00:26.He is clearly, he loves being an irritant.
:00:27. > :00:34.The Government isn't aware that he was going to in some
:00:35. > :00:36.way radicalise children or that there was a risk
:00:37. > :00:40.I think they may have been worries about demonstrations or so on.
:00:41. > :00:42.I agree, I've been to the school a couple of times,
:00:43. > :00:48.It is in some ways a shame that he didn't have to face them.
:00:49. > :00:57.Damian Green and Peter Chowney - Natalie is back next week.
:00:58. > :01:01.have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to
:01:02. > :01:07.you. Is Theresa May serious
:01:08. > :01:09.about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's
:01:10. > :01:12.successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off
:01:13. > :01:40.a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the
:01:41. > :01:43.executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in
:01:44. > :01:48.the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if
:01:49. > :01:50.they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband
:01:51. > :02:00.proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She
:02:01. > :02:03.is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an
:02:04. > :02:08.apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up
:02:09. > :02:11.for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes
:02:12. > :02:14.back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and
:02:15. > :02:21.becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the
:02:22. > :02:24.country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures
:02:25. > :02:31.you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense
:02:32. > :02:34.of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her
:02:35. > :02:37.own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the
:02:38. > :02:44.board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback
:02:45. > :02:52.position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into
:02:53. > :02:56.some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever
:02:57. > :03:00.they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When
:03:01. > :03:05.you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the
:03:06. > :03:10.ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the
:03:11. > :03:17.company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you
:03:18. > :03:23.kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of
:03:24. > :03:27.that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about
:03:28. > :03:31.this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party
:03:32. > :03:36.conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government
:03:37. > :03:41.can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and
:03:42. > :03:43.Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the
:03:44. > :03:51.internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C
:03:52. > :03:55.Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is
:03:56. > :03:59.the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a
:04:00. > :04:02.report which came out with similar proposals, which were never
:04:03. > :04:08.implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business
:04:09. > :04:12.leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are
:04:13. > :04:17.problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess
:04:18. > :04:20.is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the
:04:21. > :04:26.implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some
:04:27. > :04:31.business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on
:04:32. > :04:35.the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it
:04:36. > :04:37.does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning
:04:38. > :04:42.ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a
:04:43. > :04:45.great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any
:04:46. > :04:50.suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners
:04:51. > :04:54.get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong
:04:55. > :04:59.with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the
:05:00. > :05:02.higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make
:05:03. > :05:07.that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.
:05:08. > :05:10.Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There
:05:11. > :05:14.was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on
:05:15. > :05:20.boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But
:05:21. > :05:27.quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that
:05:28. > :05:29.was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering
:05:30. > :05:37.shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they
:05:38. > :05:41.hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic
:05:42. > :05:46.argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is
:05:47. > :05:51.that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to
:05:52. > :05:56.Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done
:05:57. > :06:01.it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is
:06:02. > :06:07.it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In
:06:08. > :06:12.Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of
:06:13. > :06:22.showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go
:06:23. > :06:26.with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result
:06:27. > :06:33.tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne
:06:34. > :06:37.Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next
:06:38. > :06:42.leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall
:06:43. > :06:46.and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul
:06:47. > :06:51.Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household
:06:52. > :06:56.name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and
:06:57. > :07:01.find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip
:07:02. > :07:09.together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If
:07:10. > :07:14.anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the
:07:15. > :07:19.thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It
:07:20. > :07:23.would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting
:07:24. > :07:30.Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North
:07:31. > :07:34.America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the
:07:35. > :07:39.chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the
:07:40. > :07:43.north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.
:07:44. > :07:49.But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.
:07:50. > :07:54.The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know
:07:55. > :07:57.the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would
:07:58. > :08:01.suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be
:08:02. > :08:06.honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.
:08:07. > :08:12.Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call
:08:13. > :08:16.a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty
:08:17. > :08:21.Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it
:08:22. > :08:26.can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The
:08:27. > :08:34.number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which
:08:35. > :08:38.should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a
:08:39. > :08:41.debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and
:08:42. > :08:45.they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a
:08:46. > :08:50.powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But
:08:51. > :08:54.he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond
:08:55. > :09:00.in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it
:09:01. > :09:03.turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a
:09:04. > :09:09.by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will
:09:10. > :09:13.know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU
:09:14. > :09:18.referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping
:09:19. > :09:22.Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on
:09:23. > :09:27.for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage
:09:28. > :09:30.to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum
:09:31. > :09:38.despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the
:09:39. > :09:42.party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have
:09:43. > :09:46.absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit
:09:47. > :09:51.of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and
:09:52. > :09:57.people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand
:09:58. > :10:04.that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this
:10:05. > :10:12.one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a
:10:13. > :10:15.period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the
:10:16. > :10:21.Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near
:10:22. > :10:25.moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in
:10:26. > :10:29.this shapeless political world we are in are going to become
:10:30. > :10:32.significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night
:10:33. > :10:38.yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.
:10:39. > :10:42.Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early
:10:43. > :10:48.hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I
:10:49. > :10:53.want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this
:10:54. > :10:56.morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually
:10:57. > :10:58.cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that
:10:59. > :11:09.all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and
:11:10. > :11:12.physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,
:11:13. > :11:17.particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the
:11:18. > :11:20.mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that
:11:21. > :11:27.we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So
:11:28. > :11:30.economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his
:11:31. > :11:38.forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert
:11:39. > :11:43.forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,
:11:44. > :11:47.which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You
:11:48. > :11:53.would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,
:11:54. > :12:00.and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if
:12:01. > :12:03.governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the
:12:04. > :12:09.basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to
:12:10. > :12:14.go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast
:12:15. > :12:17.will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are
:12:18. > :12:22.navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it
:12:23. > :12:26.was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these
:12:27. > :12:33.forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put
:12:34. > :12:44.the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a
:12:45. > :12:47.clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up
:12:48. > :12:51.with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't
:12:52. > :12:56.trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who
:12:57. > :12:59.borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip
:13:00. > :13:03.Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence
:13:04. > :13:10.Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a
:13:11. > :13:14.huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically
:13:15. > :13:19.said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a
:13:20. > :13:24.very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a
:13:25. > :13:29.department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else
:13:30. > :13:33.thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are
:13:34. > :13:34.part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more
:13:35. > :13:36.Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One
:13:37. > :13:40.next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:41. > :14:14.it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans
:14:15. > :14:19.who were here.