:00:37. > :00:42.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:45.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:46. > :00:47.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:48. > :00:50.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:51. > :00:56.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:57. > :00:58.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:59. > :01:01.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:02. > :01:05.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:06. > :01:12.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:13. > :01:14.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:15. > :01:18.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:19. > :01:21.And in the South East, there's been an angry reaction
:01:22. > :01:23.to plans to sell off land at Beachy Head, but is
:01:24. > :01:37.it a necessary move to fill Eastbourne's council coffers?
:01:38. > :01:41.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:42. > :01:43.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:44. > :01:46.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:47. > :01:49.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:50. > :01:52.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:53. > :01:55.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:56. > :02:00.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:01. > :02:06.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:07. > :02:08.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:09. > :02:11.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:12. > :02:15.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:16. > :02:17.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:18. > :02:22.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:23. > :02:24.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:25. > :02:36.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:37. > :02:43.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:44. > :02:47.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:48. > :02:49.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:50. > :03:01.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:02. > :03:07.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:08. > :03:11.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:12. > :03:14.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:15. > :03:20.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:21. > :03:25.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:26. > :03:30.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:31. > :03:34.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:35. > :03:39.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:40. > :03:44.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:45. > :03:50.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:51. > :03:57.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:58. > :04:01.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:02. > :04:04.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:05. > :04:11.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:12. > :04:15.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:16. > :04:20.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:21. > :04:23.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:24. > :04:29.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:30. > :04:33.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:34. > :04:37.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:38. > :04:44.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:45. > :04:48.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:49. > :04:53.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:54. > :04:57.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:58. > :05:03.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:04. > :05:07.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:08. > :05:11.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:12. > :05:16.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:17. > :05:19.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:20. > :05:24.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:25. > :05:29.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:30. > :05:36.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:37. > :05:42.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:43. > :05:48.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:49. > :05:52.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:53. > :05:57.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:58. > :06:03.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:04. > :06:10.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:11. > :06:14.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:15. > :06:17.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:18. > :06:23.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:24. > :06:29.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:30. > :06:34.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:35. > :06:39.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:40. > :06:43.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:44. > :06:50.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:51. > :06:56.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:57. > :07:02.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:03. > :07:07.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:08. > :07:10.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:11. > :07:15.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:16. > :07:18.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:19. > :07:23.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:24. > :07:28.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:29. > :07:32.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:33. > :07:34.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:35. > :07:38.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:39. > :07:41.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:42. > :07:43.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:44. > :07:46.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:47. > :07:49.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:50. > :07:55.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:56. > :07:58.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:59. > :08:03.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:04. > :08:06.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:07. > :08:10.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:11. > :08:14.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:15. > :08:16."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:17. > :08:19.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:20. > :08:21.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:22. > :08:25.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:26. > :08:36.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:37. > :08:42.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:43. > :08:45.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:46. > :08:46.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:47. > :08:49.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:50. > :08:53.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:54. > :08:59.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:09:00. > :09:02.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:03. > :09:06.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:07. > :09:13.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:14. > :09:16.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:17. > :09:21.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:22. > :09:25.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:26. > :09:33.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:34. > :09:39.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:40. > :09:45.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:46. > :09:49.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:50. > :09:53.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:54. > :09:58.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:59. > :10:03.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:04. > :10:07.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:08. > :10:12.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:13. > :10:20.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:21. > :10:26.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:27. > :10:30.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:31. > :10:36.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:37. > :10:44.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:45. > :10:48.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:49. > :10:52.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:53. > :10:57.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:58. > :11:01.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:02. > :11:07.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:08. > :11:11.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:12. > :11:17.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:18. > :11:22.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:23. > :11:25.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:26. > :11:30.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:31. > :11:34.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:35. > :11:41.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:42. > :11:47.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:48. > :11:52.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:53. > :11:57.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:58. > :12:04.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:05. > :12:08.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:09. > :12:13.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:14. > :12:17.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:18. > :12:23.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:24. > :12:27.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:28. > :12:32.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:33. > :12:36.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:37. > :12:42.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:43. > :12:46.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:47. > :12:51.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:52. > :12:56.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:57. > :13:02.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:03. > :13:10.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:11. > :13:15.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:16. > :13:19.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:20. > :13:24.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:25. > :13:27.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:28. > :13:35.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:36. > :13:40.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:41. > :13:46.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:47. > :13:48.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:49. > :13:55.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:56. > :14:03.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:04. > :14:06.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:07. > :14:10.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:11. > :14:15.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:16. > :14:18.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:19. > :14:24.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:25. > :14:28.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:29. > :14:34.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:35. > :14:39.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:40. > :14:42.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:43. > :14:49.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:50. > :14:53.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:54. > :14:59.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:15:00. > :15:07.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:08. > :15:09.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:10. > :15:17.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:18. > :15:21.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:22. > :15:26.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:27. > :15:31.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:32. > :15:37.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:38. > :15:41.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:42. > :15:44.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:45. > :15:50.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:51. > :15:57.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:58. > :16:02.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:03. > :16:07.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:08. > :16:11.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:12. > :16:18.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:19. > :16:25.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:26. > :16:29.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:30. > :16:32.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:33. > :16:37.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:38. > :16:43.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:44. > :16:47.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:48. > :16:52.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:53. > :16:59.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:17:00. > :17:04.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:05. > :17:13.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:14. > :17:18.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:19. > :17:25.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:26. > :17:29.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:30. > :17:34.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:35. > :17:37.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:38. > :17:39.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:40. > :17:44.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:45. > :17:49.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:50. > :17:55.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:56. > :18:09.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:10. > :18:13.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:14. > :18:19.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:20. > :18:25.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:26. > :18:29.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:30. > :18:35.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:36. > :18:41.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:42. > :18:48.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:49. > :18:53.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:54. > :18:56.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:57. > :19:05.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:06. > :19:08.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:09. > :19:11.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:12. > :19:13.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:14. > :19:16.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:17. > :19:21.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:22. > :19:27.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:28. > :19:30.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:31. > :19:31.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:32. > :19:33.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:34. > :19:43.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:44. > :19:50.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:51. > :20:00.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:01. > :20:02.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:03. > :20:06.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:07. > :20:09.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:10. > :20:11.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:12. > :20:13.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:14. > :20:18.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:19. > :20:20.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:21. > :20:24.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:25. > :20:27.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:28. > :20:31.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:32. > :20:34.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:35. > :20:37.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:38. > :20:42.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:43. > :20:46.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:47. > :20:49.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:50. > :20:51.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:52. > :20:54.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:55. > :21:02.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:03. > :21:06.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:07. > :21:09.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:10. > :21:15.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:16. > :21:23.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:24. > :21:27.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:28. > :21:31.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:32. > :21:34.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:35. > :21:37.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:38. > :21:39.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:40. > :21:44.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:45. > :21:47.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:48. > :21:49.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:50. > :21:54.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:55. > :21:59.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:22:00. > :22:04.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:05. > :22:06.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:07. > :22:09.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:10. > :22:12.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:13. > :22:21.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:22. > :22:24.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:25. > :22:26.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:27. > :22:33.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:34. > :22:42.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:43. > :22:46.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:47. > :22:48.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:49. > :22:51.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:52. > :22:54.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:55. > :23:02.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:03. > :23:09.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:10. > :23:11.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:12. > :23:14.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:15. > :23:20.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:21. > :23:22.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:23. > :23:25.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:26. > :23:28.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:29. > :23:34.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:35. > :23:41.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:42. > :23:44.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:45. > :23:59.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:24:00. > :24:05.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:06. > :24:09.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:10. > :24:13.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:14. > :24:17.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:18. > :24:23.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:24. > :24:27.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:28. > :24:29.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:30. > :24:36.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:37. > :24:42.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:43. > :24:47.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:48. > :24:50.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:51. > :24:54.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:55. > :24:59.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:25:00. > :25:04.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:05. > :25:08.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:09. > :25:13.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:14. > :25:17.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:18. > :25:21.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:22. > :25:24.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:25. > :25:30.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:31. > :25:33.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:34. > :25:38.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:39. > :25:44.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:45. > :25:49.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:50. > :25:55.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:56. > :25:59.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:26:00. > :26:02.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:03. > :26:23.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:24. > :26:29.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:30. > :26:34.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:35. > :26:37.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:38. > :26:43.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:44. > :26:47.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:48. > :26:51.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:52. > :27:00.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:01. > :27:09.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:10. > :27:12.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:13. > :27:18.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:19. > :27:23.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:24. > :27:28.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:29. > :27:31.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:32. > :27:36.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:37. > :27:43.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:44. > :27:48.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:49. > :27:55.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:56. > :28:03.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:04. > :28:07.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:08. > :28:12.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:13. > :28:19.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:20. > :28:24.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:25. > :28:29.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:30. > :28:31.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:32. > :28:38.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:39. > :28:46.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:47. > :28:51.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:52. > :28:57.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:58. > :29:04.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:05. > :29:09.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:10. > :29:18.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:19. > :29:22.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:23. > :29:29.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:30. > :29:35.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:36. > :29:40.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:41. > :29:44.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:45. > :29:48.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:49. > :29:54.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:55. > :29:58.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:59. > :30:01.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:02. > :30:09.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:10. > :30:11.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:12. > :30:25.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:26. > :30:28.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:29. > :30:31.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:32. > :30:37.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:38. > :30:44.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:45. > :30:50.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:51. > :30:54.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:55. > :31:00.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:01. > :31:06.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:07. > :31:14.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:15. > :31:17.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:18. > :31:22.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:23. > :31:26.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:27. > :31:31.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:32. > :31:36.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:37. > :31:43.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:44. > :31:48.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:49. > :31:51.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:52. > :31:56.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:57. > :31:59.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:32:00. > :32:04.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:05. > :32:08.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:09. > :32:10.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:11. > :32:14.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:15. > :32:18.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:19. > :32:21.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:22. > :32:23.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:24. > :32:29.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:30. > :32:32.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:33. > :32:37.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:38. > :32:41.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:42. > :32:46.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:47. > :32:49.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:50. > :32:55.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:56. > :32:58.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:59. > :33:05.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:06. > :33:09.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:10. > :33:15.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:16. > :33:18.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:19. > :33:21.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:22. > :33:29.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:30. > :33:33.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:34. > :33:40.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:41. > :33:45.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:46. > :33:50.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:51. > :33:56.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:57. > :34:00.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:01. > :34:05.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:06. > :34:08.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:09. > :34:14.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:15. > :34:19.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:20. > :34:23.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:24. > :34:28.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:29. > :34:35.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:36. > :34:38.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:39. > :34:45.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:46. > :34:49.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:50. > :34:54.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:55. > :34:59.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:35:00. > :35:03.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:04. > :35:09.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:10. > :35:14.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:15. > :35:17.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:18. > :35:21.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:22. > :35:26.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:27. > :35:30.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:31. > :35:34.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:35. > :35:40.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:41. > :35:44.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:45. > :35:48.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:49. > :35:53.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:54. > :35:57.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:58. > :36:02.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:03. > :36:06.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:07. > :36:10.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:11. > :36:15.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:16. > :36:21.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:22. > :36:28.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:29. > :36:34.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:35. > :36:39.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:40. > :36:44.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:45. > :36:49.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:50. > :36:53.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:54. > :36:58.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:59. > :37:01.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:02. > :37:07.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:08. > :37:13.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:14. > :37:18.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:19. > :37:23.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:24. > :37:29.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:30. > :37:32.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:33. > :37:38.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:39. > :37:43.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:44. > :37:48.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:49. > :37:52.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:53. > :37:56.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:57. > :38:02.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:03. > :38:07.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:08. > :38:12.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:13. > :38:19.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:20. > :38:26.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:27. > :38:32.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:33. > :38:37.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:38. > :38:38.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:39. > :38:40.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:41. > :38:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:43. > :38:45.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:46. > :38:48.minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday
:38:49. > :38:57.Politics where you are. Hello, I'm Natalie Graham,
:38:58. > :38:59.and this is the Sunday Politics Coming up later, it's going to be
:39:00. > :39:03.a tough decision - so says Eastbourne Borough Council,
:39:04. > :39:05.which is deciding whether to sell off farmland
:39:06. > :39:10.on the Downs near Beachy Head. But in this age of austerity,
:39:11. > :39:12.should any council assets be Joining me in the studio today
:39:13. > :39:19.are two people well positioned They are both council
:39:20. > :39:28.leaders in the South East, Keith Glazier is the Conservative
:39:29. > :39:30.head of East Sussex County Council, and Peter Lamb is the Labour Leader
:39:31. > :39:33.of Crawley Borough Council. I just want to get your views
:39:34. > :39:36.on the state of your respective parties before
:39:37. > :39:39.we move other matters. Peter, it is the first time we have
:39:40. > :39:43.talked to you since the outcome of the by-elections last week,
:39:44. > :39:45.and in particular your party lost Copeland, a seat it
:39:46. > :39:47.has held since 1935. So if Labour can lose
:39:48. > :39:50.a seat like that up north, what on earth are your chances
:39:51. > :39:53.here in the South East now? At the end of the day,
:39:54. > :39:57.we have had two leadership elections and my own view is until the party
:39:58. > :39:59.membership comes to the conclusion that being 18 points behind
:40:00. > :40:05.in the polls is not recoverable recoverable position easily,
:40:06. > :40:12.and takes action on that basis, I think, yes, our chances
:40:13. > :40:14.in the South East are difficult. When do you think
:40:15. > :40:16.things might change? Because he seems to be
:40:17. > :40:19.digging his heels in, and as we know, it is a gift
:40:20. > :40:21.to the Conservative Party, from their point of view,
:40:22. > :40:24.to have what they see as an So what do you think
:40:25. > :40:28.will make Jeremy Corbyn It is up to the membership,
:40:29. > :40:34.at the end of the day. If members of the view
:40:35. > :40:37.that they want to take a course that takes us back to elected office
:40:38. > :40:41.and being in a position to do things like saving the NHS and preserving
:40:42. > :40:44.public services than they have got to take the right course and make
:40:45. > :40:46.that apparent to the leadership. Otherwise, we will dig
:40:47. > :40:49.in and we will keep doing our best Sorry to press the point again,
:40:50. > :40:56.but if you were to go into an election now,
:40:57. > :40:59.you said it was going to be difficult, how difficult do
:41:00. > :41:01.you think it would be In all honesty, no party has ever
:41:02. > :41:08.won office when they have been both behind on leadership and economic
:41:09. > :41:11.competence, and we have never been So it sounds like it would be
:41:12. > :41:14.disastrous, in your view? It is not my view,
:41:15. > :41:17.it is the numbers. Keith, let's talk about
:41:18. > :41:18.the Conservative Party. We will talk about cuts to council
:41:19. > :41:21.budgets later in the programme, but it is clear that under
:41:22. > :41:23.Theresa May's leadership as Prime Minister, that austerity
:41:24. > :41:29.is here to stay. We've got council elections coming
:41:30. > :41:31.up in May, you have just raised
:41:32. > :41:33.council tax again by nearly 5%. At what point do you think these
:41:34. > :41:36.consistent hikes in bills is going to affect you
:41:37. > :41:38.at the ballot box? I think it affects
:41:39. > :41:46.the people of the Sussex At the end of the day,
:41:47. > :41:51.the Prime Minister has now concluded that as far as adult social care
:41:52. > :41:54.goes, which is where the big pressure is along with children's
:41:55. > :41:56.services, that actually raising council tax is not
:41:57. > :41:58.a sustainable way of doing it. She is actually setting up
:41:59. > :42:01.a commission to look at that, so hopefully that will alleviate
:42:02. > :42:03.some of the problems. But I think the key message
:42:04. > :42:06.from the top down is that actually we can do things and we can do
:42:07. > :42:09.things differently, and if you look at the way we are dealing
:42:10. > :42:13.with the health service and our work with adult social care
:42:14. > :42:15.and health in East Sussex, it is absolutely
:42:16. > :42:17.the right way to go. If we do not start joining up
:42:18. > :42:19.services, having single accountability boards,
:42:20. > :42:23.then we are missing the point. If people see services,
:42:24. > :42:26.vital services, cut to the bone, when the effects are really felt,
:42:27. > :42:31.and when they see their bills you electorally -
:42:32. > :42:41.that is going to affect your party? The conversations I have with people
:42:42. > :42:43.at the parish councils and on the doorstep,
:42:44. > :42:45.they understand that actually we are in a position
:42:46. > :42:48.where there are less people paying for more older people,
:42:49. > :42:49.more vulnerable people, and that they are actually prepared
:42:50. > :42:52.to do that. That is now.
:42:53. > :42:54.Will it be a continual? I do not think it will be,
:42:55. > :42:57.I think we need to sort it out nationally, and I am convinced
:42:58. > :43:00.that in the next few Let's move on, because any parent
:43:01. > :43:03.will tell you that it's And if you're a working parent,
:43:04. > :43:11.the cost of childcare can sometimes be the cost of your mortgage.
:43:12. > :43:14.For some families it is crippling. Two years ago the Conservatives made
:43:15. > :43:17.a pre-election promise to offer 30 hours free childcare
:43:18. > :43:19.to many parents. In September, that
:43:20. > :43:20.should become a reality. But there are questions
:43:21. > :43:24.about whether nurseries here in the South East can
:43:25. > :43:37.actually afford to deliver on the government's promise.
:43:38. > :43:49.Especially the question of how it should be funded.
:43:50. > :43:50.Currently, all three- and four-year-olds can receive 15
:43:51. > :44:01.hours of free childcare per week during term time.
:44:02. > :44:09.And from September, that government-funded
:44:10. > :44:11.entitlement will double to 30 free
:44:12. > :44:15.But there are questions over the implementation of this key
:44:16. > :44:17.election pledge made by David Cameron.
:44:18. > :44:20.It was a big consideration when I voted, it was a big
:44:21. > :44:23.sweetener, and it would've been for a lot of working parents.
:44:24. > :44:25.Childcare is a massive expense to us.
:44:26. > :44:34.My concern is now are how it is going to be executed.
:44:35. > :44:40.Nurseries are already managing with very, very tight ratios.
:44:41. > :44:44.Their staffing is incredibly high, which is fantastic for us,
:44:45. > :44:48.but actually adding in those extra hours I think could be a concern.
:44:49. > :44:51.To take up the offer of 30 free hours of childcare,
:44:52. > :44:53.both parents, or a single parent, must earn the equivalent
:44:54. > :44:57.of 16 hours per week at the National Minimum Wage,
:44:58. > :45:00.and each parent must earn less than ?100,000 per year.
:45:01. > :45:10.But I've been in touch with the number of childcare
:45:11. > :45:13.settings across the South East that have serious concerns that a policy
:45:14. > :45:15.aimed at helping working parents may actually backfire.
:45:16. > :45:18.The owner of this day nursery in Hove says she is already
:45:19. > :45:21.underfunded for the 15 free hours she provides, and that doubling
:45:22. > :45:23.the free provision may put nurseries like hers out of business.
:45:24. > :45:26.The stumbling block is the promise was "free".
:45:27. > :45:29.But the government cannot afford to fund it completely free,
:45:30. > :45:32.they cannot afford our fees, and our fees do not exist
:45:33. > :45:36.because we are making millions of pounds per year,
:45:37. > :45:44.they exist because we need to pay staff, and all other bills.
:45:45. > :45:47.But if the government just accepts that it simply is not free
:45:48. > :45:51.and that it is just a subsidy, and it is a healthy subsidy,
:45:52. > :45:53.it is a good reduction, it is not something that
:45:54. > :45:56.But this is a fundamental change to the Tory party pledge.
:45:57. > :46:03.So, are nurseries in the South East planning to offer
:46:04. > :46:08.Last year the Department for Education carried out a survey
:46:09. > :46:12.of childcare providers on this issue.
:46:13. > :46:17.We did some maths and found that in the wider South East
:46:18. > :46:19.90% of early-years settings asked in that survey currently further
:46:20. > :46:25.And according to our figures, 45% of providers from that survey
:46:26. > :46:27.plan to offer places to working parents
:46:28. > :46:40.using the 30 hours' funded entitlement.
:46:41. > :46:42.Childcare campaign groups have warned the funding shortfall may
:46:43. > :46:45.force prices up outside the free nursery provision and that some
:46:46. > :46:51.nurseries may refuse to offer the 30 free hours altogether.
:46:52. > :46:54.The reality is that in the South East, the available capacity,
:46:55. > :46:57.is considerably less than elsewhere. So that certainly is one factor.
:46:58. > :47:00.It is quite clear we are going to have a major issue
:47:01. > :47:07.Of course, costs are considerably higher in the South East
:47:08. > :47:09.than in many other parts of the country.
:47:10. > :47:12.My main concern is that it was a policy that was delivered
:47:13. > :47:15.and announced on the hoof, we have had no consultation,
:47:16. > :47:17.limited consultation, and the reality is the funding
:47:18. > :47:19.is grossly inadequate and you cannot make that work.
:47:20. > :47:22.The government has promised a record investment of ?6 billion per year
:47:23. > :47:30.Will that be enough to make this election pledge
:47:31. > :47:32.a reality for working parents in the South East?
:47:33. > :47:35.Joining us now from Crawley is the Conservative MP
:47:36. > :47:39.Henry Smith, who is an aide at the Department for Education.
:47:40. > :47:42.We've just heard the accusation that the funding is grossly
:47:43. > :47:46.inadequate, and that nursery owner in Hove we just heard from points
:47:47. > :47:49.out the money she gets for 15 hours' free childcare already falls short
:47:50. > :47:52.of the true costs, so just doubling the provision could put nurseries
:47:53. > :48:04.are delivering on their manifesto commitment to have 30 hours of free
:48:05. > :48:08.of free childcare a week for two-year-olds to four-year-olds.
:48:09. > :48:13.It is very important for young families, it is also important
:48:14. > :48:16.for our economy and expanding employment as well.
:48:17. > :48:25.That's why it has been backed by funding of ?6 billion,
:48:26. > :48:29.which is a considerable investment in early-years free provision,
:48:30. > :48:32.which as I say is good for individuals, and will be good
:48:33. > :48:37.I knew you were going to tell me that, but I would like you to answer
:48:38. > :48:41.the question raised by the nursery owner in Hove,
:48:42. > :48:47.I give you another example of a Sussex preschool.
:48:48. > :48:50.They say they would lose ?300 per child per year if they take up
:48:51. > :48:52.the 30 hours' free provision you want them to,
:48:53. > :48:56.and ultimately they say they will be forced to close.
:48:57. > :49:08.There is a range of providers that will be able to supply the scheme.
:49:09. > :49:11.Some of them are maintained providers, some of them
:49:12. > :49:13.are independent nurseries, others are nurseries run
:49:14. > :49:16.I believe the funding will be sufficient.
:49:17. > :49:20.This is new from the old policy of just 15 hours of free childcare.
:49:21. > :49:24.As I say, it's a ?6 billion investment in a commitment that
:49:25. > :49:27.I think is very important, and a promise that was made
:49:28. > :49:33.I believe that funding will be enough but, of course,
:49:34. > :49:37.if the delivery of a policy, as it is rolled out from September,
:49:38. > :49:43.and it is a very ambitious plan, if that delivery means
:49:44. > :49:46.that we need to look at it again, then that is certainly
:49:47. > :49:51.Didn't you put your finger on it - it was an ambitious plan,
:49:52. > :49:53.it was announced on the hoof, in the general election.
:49:54. > :49:56.I believe the Conservatives were trying to trump a similar
:49:57. > :49:59.But if, at the end of the day, the funding shortfall
:50:00. > :50:02.as the National Day Nurseries Association says that it is,
:50:03. > :50:04.is ?800 per year, for three- and four-year-olds already,
:50:05. > :50:12.this is going to backfire horribly, isn't it?
:50:13. > :50:14.I don't think it will, and I'd also challenge the assertion
:50:15. > :50:19.that's been made that this was a policy made on the hoof.
:50:20. > :50:25.Certainly, as a former parent of young children,
:50:26. > :50:32.they have grown up, no starting their teenage years,
:50:33. > :50:35.this is something that I was arguing for should be core Conservative
:50:36. > :50:37.policy for many years, and many of my colleagues
:50:38. > :50:40.So it is ambitious, but it certainly isn't
:50:41. > :50:54.something that was properly thought through.
:50:55. > :51:01.Certainly in recent meetings in the Department for Education,
:51:02. > :51:04.yes, there is a significant roll-out that will be taking place of this
:51:05. > :51:06.policy from September, but I think we need to focus
:51:07. > :51:10.on the positives, this is a ?6 billion investment to ensure
:51:11. > :51:13.that parents are supported in those early years and so that particularly
:51:14. > :51:14.young mums can get back into the workplace
:51:15. > :51:18.Just earlier this week, I opened up a couple
:51:19. > :51:20.of new businesses in Crawley and they are crying
:51:21. > :51:23.out for employees. This will certainly help with that.
:51:24. > :51:26.Henry Smith, thank you very much for joining us.
:51:27. > :51:29.Peter Lamb, he makes the point it was a very popular policy,
:51:30. > :51:34.The government is now delivering on it, so what is not to like?
:51:35. > :51:36.Well, we've yet to see if the government is delivering
:51:37. > :51:41.They're following through with the ?6 billion,
:51:42. > :51:44.but if the cost of the policy is in excess of ?6 billion,
:51:45. > :51:47.and I have to say, having spoken in Crawley to people who run
:51:48. > :51:50.childcare centres, the money is not sufficient as it currently is,
:51:51. > :51:52.then it's a policy which may very well backfire.
:51:53. > :51:55.It's typical, really, it is a good idea, yet another good idea,
:51:56. > :51:57.which has had no planning put behind it.
:51:58. > :52:00.Ultimately I very much hope it succeeds, but it was brave of Henry
:52:01. > :52:03.to stick his neck out saying that it is going to work,
:52:04. > :52:05.because I think people now know who to write
:52:06. > :52:14.I believe that you pay ?4.30 for the provision of free childcare
:52:15. > :52:17.to nurseries and preschools, but actually they say that it costs
:52:18. > :52:19.them ?4.80 per hour just to stay in business.
:52:20. > :52:21.Clearly the maths don't add up, do they?
:52:22. > :52:26.The availability of childcare is an issue, and as you know
:52:27. > :52:28.we are one of the 25 pilots that our running throughout
:52:29. > :52:31.the country at the moment, and we are working with providers
:52:32. > :52:33.and with parents and listening to what is being said.
:52:34. > :52:36.Hopefully by the time this is rolled out in September,
:52:37. > :52:42.a lot of the anomalies, or any issues which have arisen,
:52:43. > :52:45.we'll have an answer to, and it will be a smooth transition.
:52:46. > :52:48.I absolutely agree with Henry that this is a policy which has
:52:49. > :52:50.been around for a while, and we know need
:52:51. > :52:59.We cannot just disregard the issues that providers have,
:53:00. > :53:06.to see if we can overcome some of them.
:53:07. > :53:11.You are sounding less confident than Henry that it well.
:53:12. > :53:14.You are using words like "hopefully" it will be a success.
:53:15. > :53:21.But the fundamental fact is, if you are paying nurseries 50p less
:53:22. > :53:23.than they say they need, how are they supposed to deliver
:53:24. > :53:30.They're surviving and they're providing the care now,
:53:31. > :53:32.and we will continue to work with them.
:53:33. > :53:36.At the end of the day, we have a pot of money that needs
:53:37. > :53:40.If, as Henry said, it proves that the current provision is not
:53:41. > :53:43.what was set out to be, then I'm sure we can look at it,
:53:44. > :53:45.but the problem is, with most of these things,
:53:46. > :53:47.if you do not have that initial conversation,
:53:48. > :53:50.and a point Peter raised about us going into this blind,
:53:51. > :53:52.there have been 25 pilots, but hopefully we can have learnt
:53:53. > :53:55.from some of the issues that are around and have
:53:56. > :53:57.dealt with them before they get rolled out in September.
:53:58. > :54:02.There is clearly a huge demand for free childcare, or at least
:54:03. > :54:05.Is that the answer, rather than free childcare,
:54:06. > :54:09.I'm not going to tell the government go back on a promise they've made,
:54:10. > :54:12.but maybe when they make promises and future, they should make sure
:54:13. > :54:14.that they have adequate funding to follow through with it.
:54:15. > :54:17.Interesting about poor old Keith, here he is, he has already got
:54:18. > :54:20.to find care for granny, he's already got to find a way
:54:21. > :54:23.to keep schools going and avoiding having to drop down to a four-day
:54:24. > :54:26.week, and now they are dumping on him another thing about trying
:54:27. > :54:28.to find all these school places because the government,
:54:29. > :54:30.time and time again, is committing to things
:54:31. > :54:33.Do you feel dumped on by the government?
:54:34. > :54:37.All of these things are exciting opportunities for the people out
:54:38. > :54:41.We don't do this because they don't want it.
:54:42. > :54:43.If I had a massive mailbag that said, actually, Keith,
:54:44. > :54:46.stop the 30 hours childcare, we will do it some other way,
:54:47. > :54:50.But the conversations that I have indicate to me that there is a need
:54:51. > :54:53.for it and I am sure that we will deal with it.
:54:54. > :54:56.And we will see whether you do. We'll invite you back if you don't.
:54:57. > :55:00.For many people, the South Downs Way at Beachy Head is the most beautiful
:55:01. > :55:03.So when Eastbourne Borough Council suggested selling off 3000 acres
:55:04. > :55:05.of downland right next to the coastal path,
:55:06. > :55:10.Residents took to the streets last weekend to protest
:55:11. > :55:12.against the plans, but the council says with government funding cuts
:55:13. > :55:16.it needs to plug the gap and protect front line services.
:55:17. > :55:19.It has run a survey, the results will be published
:55:20. > :55:22.tomorrow and the council says it will abide by the result.
:55:23. > :55:26.Some question whether the council has taken the right approach.
:55:27. > :55:29.I think, unfortunately for the Council, what they have done
:55:30. > :55:31.is given the people of Eastbourne a very biased choice,
:55:32. > :55:34.and in fact it is really little more than blackmail,
:55:35. > :55:37.because what they have said is, if you want to keep the Downs,
:55:38. > :55:39.we're going to cut your public services.
:55:40. > :55:41.Well, in January one Eastbourne Council officer told BBC
:55:42. > :55:44.South East today it had made a number of assurances to residents.
:55:45. > :55:54.Secondly, the open downland will remain accessible
:55:55. > :56:01.The footpaths will remain as they have, and finally
:56:02. > :56:03.that the National Park has very stringent planning regulations
:56:04. > :56:05.in place that will always protect those farms.
:56:06. > :56:07.Keith Glazier, you're the leader of East Sussex County Council,
:56:08. > :56:08.which includes that area of downland.
:56:09. > :56:10.What are you concerned the consequences will be,
:56:11. > :56:14.because as we have just heard, it is farmed land, it is in
:56:15. > :56:16.the South Downs National Park, those footpaths will still be open
:56:17. > :56:18.to the public - what's to worry about?
:56:19. > :56:21.It's an issue for the people of Eastbourne and for the Council
:56:22. > :56:23.at Eastbourne, but more importantly it's actually
:56:24. > :56:24.about having people on your side.
:56:25. > :56:27.I think the mistake that has been made is twofold.
:56:28. > :56:29.First, there should have been more thorough consultation,
:56:30. > :56:35.rather than what has now been delivered.
:56:36. > :56:40.Secondly, to conflate the idea that a capital receipt can actually
:56:41. > :56:42.prevent services being delivered or increase services being delivered
:56:43. > :56:51.At the end of the day, they can actually provide more
:56:52. > :56:55.capital expenditure but you cannot spend it on services.
:56:56. > :56:57.So you can only spend the money once.
:56:58. > :57:00.It sounds like you are more worried about the way they have gone
:57:01. > :57:02.about it than the sale of the land itself?
:57:03. > :57:05.At the end of the day, we are all put in difficult
:57:06. > :57:08.positions at times and we have difficult decisions to make,
:57:09. > :57:11.so I do not shy away from that, but I just think it is the way
:57:12. > :57:14.that they have gone about it, but more importantly they need
:57:15. > :57:16.to listen to the people that they represent,
:57:17. > :57:18.because you do not get elected by ignoring them.
:57:19. > :57:21.That is what they say they will do when they get the results
:57:22. > :57:25.One of the Conservative councillors was saying that the council had put
:57:26. > :57:27.out a one-sided newsletter, that they had not quite
:57:28. > :57:29.explain to people both sides of the argument.
:57:30. > :57:32.Are you concerned about the way these things are conducted,
:57:33. > :57:34.the way the public are engaged with in situations like this?
:57:35. > :57:37.Councils are supposed to undertake consultation on a range of things,
:57:38. > :57:39.and they should have a department that is perfectly capable
:57:40. > :57:42.of undertaking this without mishap, and they should certainly,
:57:43. > :57:44.before they go out and undertake something of this scale
:57:45. > :57:48.and impact on the community, consults fairly widely.
:57:49. > :57:51.But we should not necessarily write off councils disposing of assets,
:57:52. > :57:54.certainly with funding as tight as it is at the moment,
:57:55. > :57:56.with grants disappearing entirely over the next couple of years
:57:57. > :57:59.and not being able to put up council tax more than 2%,
:58:00. > :58:03.which we don't want to have to do anyway, there's got to be a way
:58:04. > :58:05.of squaring the circle, and it's going to take a lot
:58:06. > :58:08.of creativity from councils using assets to fund new investments
:58:09. > :58:10.to generate the income they need to keep services going.
:58:11. > :58:12.So, should anything be safe from being sold off?
:58:13. > :58:14.Tilgate Park should certainly be saved.
:58:15. > :58:18.There are plenty of places which we will protect,
:58:19. > :58:20.but it is about being imaginative about what we have available.
:58:21. > :58:22.We are investing in our parks at the moment.
:58:23. > :58:24.And parks are slightly different to
:58:25. > :58:26.the South Downs and the National Park area.
:58:27. > :58:29.What then are you considering doing? Is there anything in Crawley
:58:30. > :58:33.which has been similar, which has been controversial?
:58:34. > :58:37.Controversy, not necessarily on this, but we are in the process
:58:38. > :58:46.of using assets to generate an income, we are about to redevelop
:58:47. > :58:48.our townhall site to provide low-carbon electricity and heat
:58:49. > :58:51.A new townhall and a whole bunch of housing, including
:58:52. > :58:57.The council have got to get creative, it's the only way we're
:58:58. > :59:01.But consultation and bearing the public
:59:02. > :59:04.in mind is going to be at the forefront of that.
:59:05. > :59:07.If, Keith, Eastbourne decide not to sell the land
:59:08. > :59:08.because of public opinion, without necessarily
:59:09. > :59:12.be the right outcome, in your view?
:59:13. > :59:15.That's why we are elected, at the end of the day we have
:59:16. > :59:17.difficult decisions to make, and the elected members
:59:18. > :59:19.of Eastbourne Borough Council will do that.
:59:20. > :59:24.At the end of the day, you have a budget balance,
:59:25. > :59:26.and you can't just think about this year, you actually have
:59:27. > :59:30.As Peter says, you have to be creative, but equally
:59:31. > :59:34.if the majority of people that you represent are against something
:59:35. > :59:37.then you must be being told something
:59:38. > :59:38.that you need to listen to.
:59:39. > :59:44.Time for some of the other news you might have missed in 60 seconds.
:59:45. > :59:47.The Federation of Small Businesses is urging the government to make
:59:48. > :59:49.a decision on the proposed new Lower Thames Crossing
:59:50. > :59:56.The organisation said the current Dartford Crossing
:59:57. > :59:59.was under pressure from 50 million crossings a year.
:00:00. > :00:05.The MP for Dartford said a decision would be taken in due course.
:00:06. > :00:07.I'm optimistic that we will actually get a decision this month,
:00:08. > :00:10.and it's important that we get the right decision,
:00:11. > :00:16.As soon as we get that decision, then of course we can get
:00:17. > :00:20.A study commissioned by the government has said
:00:21. > :00:23.there is only a poor transport case for a second Brighton Main Line.
:00:24. > :00:25.Campaigners have been urging ministers to consider building
:00:26. > :00:30.a new railway line via Lewis and Upfield, but the report said
:00:31. > :00:32.rise in demand could be met by improving the existing
:00:33. > :00:37.And the headteacher of the The Skinners' School,
:00:38. > :00:38.a grammar in Tunbridge Wells, is asking parents
:00:39. > :00:40.to pay for new GCSE textbooks.
:00:41. > :00:43.He says he can't afford to buy the new materials that are needed
:00:44. > :00:49.It comes as schools across the South East complain
:00:50. > :01:00.are complaining about budget cuts, it's schools as well.
:01:01. > :01:02.Is it fair, Peter Lamb, to charge parents for textbooks?
:01:03. > :01:04.It's certainly not fair, it certainly discriminates
:01:05. > :01:06.against those who've got less income.
:01:07. > :01:09.Taking the broader point here, which I think people have not
:01:10. > :01:11.realised, is we keep talking about hitting a crisis point,
:01:12. > :01:16.and we're going to hit the crisis point -
:01:17. > :01:19.we're beyond the crisis point, these things were all coming
:01:20. > :01:21.in under the radar, we've already passed the point where are services
:01:22. > :01:25.Is it fair to charge for books, Keith Glazier?
:01:26. > :01:28.Fairer school funding is something that we are all anxious about,
:01:29. > :01:32.If the school feel that they are able to do that again
:01:33. > :01:34.and get the people to pay, that's great, because I understand,
:01:35. > :01:36.as Peter said, not everybody is in that position.
:01:37. > :01:40.And do you agree, yes or no, we're beyond crisis point when it
:01:41. > :01:44.I think it's still very, very difficult to deliver.
:01:45. > :01:47.You're not going as far as Peter. Thank you very much.
:01:48. > :01:49.That we got time for from the South East this week.
:01:50. > :01:53.need Crossrail as well. We will be poring over the entrails of the
:01:54. > :01:59.budget next week. Thank you very much indeed.
:02:00. > :02:04.So the Brexit Bill is back in the Lords next week and the Lib Dems
:02:05. > :02:07.They've ordered pizza and camp beds to encourage their peers
:02:08. > :02:10.to keep talking all night, only to be told by the Lord's
:02:11. > :02:17.authorities that their plans fall foul of health and safety laws.
:02:18. > :02:25.Laws that they probably voted for. What did you make of David
:02:26. > :02:29.Liddington's remarks on the Lords amendments, particularly not just
:02:30. > :02:34.the one on EU nationals, but on what is regarded as a meaningful vote at
:02:35. > :02:40.the end of the process? Let's be clear, as ministers like to say, the
:02:41. > :02:45.meaningful vote vote is by far the biggest thing that will happen in
:02:46. > :02:51.Parliament. It puts EU citizens into a tiny corner. It will decide not
:02:52. > :02:55.just who is going to have the final say on this, but who the EU is
:02:56. > :03:00.negotiating with. Is it directly with Theresa May or is it with
:03:01. > :03:05.Parliament? Who will decide the shape of Brexit, Parliament or
:03:06. > :03:12.Theresa May? The Lords amendment is just the first chapter. They have
:03:13. > :03:15.voiced Theresa May to give them a veto on everything she does, and
:03:16. > :03:22.there is a possible chance in the Commons could uphold this amendment.
:03:23. > :03:28.The meaningful vote amendment? The meaningful vote amendment. But is it
:03:29. > :03:35.a meaningful vote if the choice is to either back the deal or crash out
:03:36. > :03:39.of the deal? That is what the remain supporting MPs or hardline people
:03:40. > :03:43.who want to remain fear. What they want is the power to be able to send
:03:44. > :03:50.Theresa May back to the negotiating table. Why is that anathema to many
:03:51. > :03:54.Brexit supporters? They believed it would crucially and critically
:03:55. > :04:00.undermine Theresa May's negotiating hand and also create a long period
:04:01. > :04:03.of uncertainty for business. There is already great uncertainty and
:04:04. > :04:08.this could extend it. The government's position is in there
:04:09. > :04:14.was a proper, meaningful vote which Parliament could reject what was on
:04:15. > :04:19.offer, that would be an incentive to the EU to give us a bad deal? I
:04:20. > :04:23.think that is the fear. If you are saying to the people you are
:04:24. > :04:27.negotiating with that that is another authority and Theresa May
:04:28. > :04:31.will have to go back and have all of this approved, I think it would have
:04:32. > :04:38.a very significant undermining effect on her negotiating hand.
:04:39. > :04:43.Things change from day to day. We are talking about 2019 and 2018 at
:04:44. > :04:51.the earliest, but if the government lost a vote on the Brexit deal,
:04:52. > :04:57.would he not have to call in someone else? That is why the vote will be
:04:58. > :05:02.meaningful even if the amendment on this meaningful vote will be lost.
:05:03. > :05:07.You cannot do a deal on something as historic as Brexit and have
:05:08. > :05:12.Parliament against you. So, whatever form this vote takes, whenever it
:05:13. > :05:22.happens, it will be hugely meaningful. Whatever label that is
:05:23. > :05:28.given and if she lost it she would call a general election. She could
:05:29. > :05:31.not impose it. To call a general election now you need a majority of
:05:32. > :05:37.MPs which she will not have, so maybe she will not get her election
:05:38. > :05:40.after all. It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election.
:05:41. > :05:43.It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election.
:05:44. > :05:47.The elections to Stormont have given a boost to the republicans and put
:05:48. > :05:49.the long term status of Northern Ireland in some doubt.
:05:50. > :05:51.Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams spoke to reporters
:05:52. > :05:57.Yesterday was in many, many ways a watershed election,
:05:58. > :06:00.and we have just started a process of reflecting what it all means,
:06:01. > :06:16.but clearly the union's majority in the Assembly has been ended,
:06:17. > :06:19.and the notion of a permanent or a perpetual unionist majority
:06:20. > :06:31.Is he right? Is this a watershed? The nationalist vote in the assembly
:06:32. > :06:37.will now come to 39 and the Unionists 38. It is only one member,
:06:38. > :06:41.but it is significant. This is a very serious moment and because of
:06:42. > :06:45.everything else going on with Donald Trump and Brexit it is taking a
:06:46. > :06:51.while for people here to realise just how significant this is.
:06:52. > :06:54.Talking to someone who only recently left a significant role in Northern
:06:55. > :06:59.Ireland politics last night, they said they were very worried about
:07:00. > :07:02.what this means. It is likely there will be a call for some kind of
:07:03. > :07:08.international figure to chair the talks to try and see if there is a
:07:09. > :07:11.way of everybody working together. All sides will probably try to
:07:12. > :07:15.extract more money from the Treasury, but it is a very dangerous
:07:16. > :07:20.moment. Should we regard Michelle O'Neill, who has replaced Mr
:07:21. > :07:29.McGuinness as the leader, it is she the First Minister death probably
:07:30. > :07:35.not quite. An interesting thought. Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man,
:07:36. > :07:41.a fascinating concept in itself. But there are are still a large amount
:07:42. > :07:45.of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein what they need. But what effect does
:07:46. > :07:48.this have on the legacy of the prosecutions and the great
:07:49. > :07:53.witchhunts which the British Government has vowed to end. There
:07:54. > :08:00.is a majority left on the Stormont assembly to end those. But some
:08:01. > :08:06.would keep them going for time continuing, which is a headache for
:08:07. > :08:11.Theresa May. You have now got 27 Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the
:08:12. > :08:17.SDLP bumps up the numbers a little bit. You have got the British
:08:18. > :08:21.Government transfixed with Brexit which has huge implications for the
:08:22. > :08:28.border between North and South in Ireland, and the Irish government is
:08:29. > :08:31.pretty wavering as well and if there is an election there, Sinn Fein
:08:32. > :08:36.could do well in the Dublin parliament as well. There are a lot
:08:37. > :08:40.of moving pieces. There are and there is a danger that we look at
:08:41. > :08:46.everything through the prism of Brexit, but I found Friday and this
:08:47. > :08:49.weekend fascinating. Theresa May and Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is
:08:50. > :08:53.framing Brexit entirely through an argument to have a second referendum
:08:54. > :08:58.on independence which she wants to hold it she possibly can. And the
:08:59. > :09:07.Irish situation with the prospect of a hard border with Northern Ireland
:09:08. > :09:16.voting majority to remain, quite a substantial majority, again a few of
:09:17. > :09:18.the instability at the moment. That is on both sides. We will be keeping
:09:19. > :09:22.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:23. > :09:24.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:25. > :09:26.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:27. > :09:29.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:30. > :09:32."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:33. > :09:35.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:36. > :09:49.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:50. > :09:51.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:52. > :09:58."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:59. > :10:11.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:12. > :10:12.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:13. > :10:25.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:26. > :10:30.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:31. > :10:33.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:34. > :10:40.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:41. > :10:47.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:48. > :10:52.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:53. > :10:56.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:57. > :11:09.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:10. > :11:14.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:15. > :11:18.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:19. > :11:26.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:27. > :11:30.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:31. > :11:34.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:35. > :11:40.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:41. > :11:45.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:46. > :11:49.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:50. > :11:56.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:57. > :12:01.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:02. > :12:05.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:06. > :12:10.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:11. > :12:15.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:16. > :12:19.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:20. > :12:24.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:25. > :12:27.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:28. > :12:31.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:32. > :12:35.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:36. > :12:40.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:41. > :12:43.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:44. > :12:51.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:52. > :12:56.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:57. > :13:00.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:01. > :13:05.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:06. > :13:10.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:11. > :13:13.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:14. > :13:23.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:24. > :13:27.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:28. > :13:34.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:35. > :13:39.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:40. > :13:42.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:43. > :13:45.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:46. > :14:34.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:35. > :14:37.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.
:14:38. > :14:41.We're right in the middle of the action.
:14:42. > :14:46.The remarkable story of British photography.