:00:37. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:44. > :00:48.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:49. > :00:53.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:54. > :00:57.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:58. > :01:02.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:03. > :01:05.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:06. > :01:08.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:09. > :01:10.And in the South East, as the Prime Mininster
:01:11. > :01:12.begins her Brexit negotiations, we go out and about.
:01:13. > :01:18.What do you think her priorities should be?
:01:19. > :01:21.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:22. > :01:29.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:30. > :01:31.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:32. > :01:34.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:35. > :01:39.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:40. > :01:42.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:43. > :01:44.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:45. > :01:49.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:50. > :01:52.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:53. > :01:58.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:59. > :02:00.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:01. > :02:06.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:07. > :02:12.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:13. > :02:17.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:18. > :02:19.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:20. > :02:22.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:23. > :02:24.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:25. > :02:27.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:28. > :02:39.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:40. > :02:44.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:45. > :02:48.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:49. > :02:53.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:54. > :03:00.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:01. > :03:04.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:05. > :03:11.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:12. > :03:19.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:20. > :03:23.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:24. > :03:28.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:29. > :03:34.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:35. > :03:37.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:38. > :03:43.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:44. > :03:51.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:52. > :03:58.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:59. > :04:01.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:02. > :04:06.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:07. > :04:11.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:12. > :04:16.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:17. > :04:20.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:21. > :04:26.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:27. > :04:31.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:32. > :04:35.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:36. > :04:39.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:40. > :04:45.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:46. > :04:50.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:51. > :04:53.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:54. > :04:58.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:04:59. > :05:03.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:04. > :05:09.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:10. > :05:14.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:15. > :05:18.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:19. > :05:25.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:26. > :05:32.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:33. > :05:35.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:36. > :05:39.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:40. > :05:46.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:47. > :05:53.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:54. > :05:56.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:57. > :06:01.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:02. > :06:06.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:07. > :06:10.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:11. > :06:21.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:22. > :06:26.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:27. > :06:30.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:31. > :06:36.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:37. > :06:44.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:45. > :06:47.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:48. > :06:50.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:51. > :06:52.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:53. > :06:55.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:56. > :06:57.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:58. > :06:59.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:07:00. > :07:02.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:03. > :07:05.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:06. > :07:10.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:11. > :07:12.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:13. > :07:21.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:22. > :07:24.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:25. > :07:27.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:28. > :07:32.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:33. > :07:35.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:36. > :07:42.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:43. > :07:48.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:49. > :07:51.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:52. > :07:53."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:54. > :07:56.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:57. > :07:59.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:08:00. > :08:03.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:04. > :08:09.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:10. > :08:13.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:14. > :08:16.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:17. > :08:18.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:19. > :08:20.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:21. > :08:22.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:23. > :08:29.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:30. > :08:32.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:33. > :08:41.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:42. > :08:56.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:57. > :08:56.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:57. > :08:57.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:58. > :08:57.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:58. > :09:00.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:01. > :09:03.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:04. > :09:06.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:07. > :09:09.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:10. > :09:11.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:12. > :09:16.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:17. > :09:18.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:19. > :09:25.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:26. > :09:27.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:28. > :09:29.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:30. > :09:35.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:36. > :09:38.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:39. > :09:45.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:46. > :09:48.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:49. > :09:50.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:51. > :09:58.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:59. > :10:00.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:01. > :10:04.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:05. > :10:07.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:08. > :10:13.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:14. > :10:16.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:17. > :10:19.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:20. > :10:22.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:23. > :10:31.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:32. > :10:35.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:36. > :10:42.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:43. > :10:45.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:46. > :10:48.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:49. > :10:58.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:59. > :11:04.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:05. > :11:12.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:13. > :11:16.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:17. > :11:23.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:24. > :11:29.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:30. > :11:34.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:35. > :11:38.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:39. > :11:44.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:45. > :11:48.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:49. > :11:52.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:53. > :11:57.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:58. > :12:00.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:01. > :12:08.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:09. > :12:12.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:13. > :12:18.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:19. > :12:24.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:25. > :12:30.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:31. > :12:34.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:35. > :12:38.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:39. > :12:44.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:45. > :12:49.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:50. > :12:57.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:58. > :13:02.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:03. > :13:08.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:09. > :13:11.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:12. > :13:21.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:22. > :13:25.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:26. > :13:31.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:32. > :13:34.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:35. > :13:39.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:40. > :13:43.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:44. > :13:48.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:49. > :13:51.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:52. > :13:59.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:14:00. > :14:02.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:03. > :14:07.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:08. > :14:14.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:15. > :14:18.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:19. > :14:23.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:24. > :14:27.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:28. > :14:32.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:33. > :14:38.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:39. > :14:43.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:44. > :14:46.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:47. > :14:50.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:51. > :14:53.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:54. > :14:59.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:15:00. > :15:07.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:08. > :15:11.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:12. > :15:16.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:17. > :15:23.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:24. > :15:28.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:29. > :15:32.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:33. > :15:38.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:39. > :15:42.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:43. > :15:43.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:44. > :15:56.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:57. > :16:01.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:02. > :16:08.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:09. > :16:12.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:13. > :16:18.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:19. > :16:22.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:23. > :16:30.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:31. > :16:34.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:35. > :16:39.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:40. > :16:43.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:44. > :16:47.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:48. > :16:52.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:53. > :16:56.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:57. > :17:00.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:01. > :17:06.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:07. > :17:12.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:13. > :17:16.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:17. > :17:23.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:24. > :17:26.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:27. > :17:29.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:30. > :17:35.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:36. > :17:39.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:40. > :17:50.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:51. > :17:52.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:53. > :17:55.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:56. > :17:58.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:59. > :18:04.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:05. > :18:10.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:11. > :18:14.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:15. > :18:18.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:19. > :18:24.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:25. > :18:28.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:29. > :18:29.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:30. > :18:32.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:33. > :18:34.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:35. > :18:36.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:37. > :18:39.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:40. > :18:42.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:43. > :18:45.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:46. > :18:50.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:51. > :18:57.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:58. > :19:03.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:04. > :19:07.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:08. > :19:10.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:11. > :19:17.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:18. > :19:19.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:20. > :19:22.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:23. > :19:24.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:25. > :19:27.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:28. > :19:32.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:33. > :19:39.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:40. > :19:40.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:41. > :19:43.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:44. > :19:45.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:46. > :19:50.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:51. > :19:53.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:54. > :19:59.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:20:00. > :20:02.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:03. > :20:07.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:08. > :20:09.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:10. > :20:12.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:13. > :20:14.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:15. > :20:23.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:24. > :20:26.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:27. > :20:28.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:29. > :20:31.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:32. > :20:38.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:39. > :20:43.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:44. > :20:47.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:48. > :20:51.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:52. > :20:57.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:58. > :21:00.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:01. > :21:04.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:05. > :21:16.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:17. > :21:18.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:19. > :21:21.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:22. > :21:24.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:25. > :21:28.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:29. > :21:32.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:33. > :21:36.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:37. > :21:40.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:41. > :21:44.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:45. > :21:47.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:48. > :21:56.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:57. > :21:58.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:59. > :22:02.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:03. > :22:05.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:06. > :22:10.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:11. > :22:13.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:14. > :22:17.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:18. > :22:22.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:23. > :22:53.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:54. > :22:56.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:57. > :22:58.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:59. > :23:01.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:02. > :23:04.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:05. > :23:06.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:07. > :23:09.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:10. > :23:11.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:12. > :23:14.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:15. > :23:16.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:17. > :23:18.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:19. > :23:22.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:23. > :23:28.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:29. > :23:31.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:32. > :23:37.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:38. > :23:44.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:45. > :23:49.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:50. > :23:55.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:56. > :23:58.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:59. > :24:03.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:04. > :24:07.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:08. > :24:12.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:13. > :24:16.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:17. > :24:24.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:25. > :24:27.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:28. > :24:31.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:32. > :24:35.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:36. > :24:39.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:40. > :24:44.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:45. > :24:48.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:49. > :24:54.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:55. > :24:57.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:58. > :25:03.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:04. > :25:07.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:08. > :25:12.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:13. > :25:17.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:18. > :25:23.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:24. > :25:25.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:26. > :25:41.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:42. > :25:43.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:44. > :25:46.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:47. > :25:48.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:49. > :25:51.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:52. > :25:58.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:59. > :26:01.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:02. > :26:06.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:07. > :26:12.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:13. > :26:17.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:18. > :26:21.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:22. > :26:28.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:29. > :26:35.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:36. > :26:39.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:40. > :26:45.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:46. > :26:51.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:52. > :26:56.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:57. > :27:01.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:02. > :27:05.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:06. > :27:08.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:09. > :27:13.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:14. > :27:16.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:17. > :27:20.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:21. > :27:24.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:25. > :27:29.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:30. > :27:33.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:34. > :27:40.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:41. > :27:45.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:46. > :27:50.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:51. > :28:11.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:12. > :28:14.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:15. > :28:16.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:17. > :28:19.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:20. > :28:21.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:22. > :28:23.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:24. > :28:26.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:27. > :28:28.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:29. > :28:33.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:34. > :28:38.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:39. > :28:44.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:45. > :28:48.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:49. > :28:50.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:51. > :28:53.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:54. > :28:56.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:57. > :28:58.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:59. > :29:03.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:04. > :29:05.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:06. > :29:09.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:10. > :29:11.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:12. > :29:14.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:15. > :29:16.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:17. > :29:20.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:21. > :29:26.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:27. > :29:28.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:29. > :29:34.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:35. > :29:36.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:37. > :29:41.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:42. > :29:46.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:47. > :29:51.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:52. > :29:56.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:57. > :30:02.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:03. > :30:07.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:08. > :30:11.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:12. > :30:15.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:16. > :30:20.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:21. > :30:25.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:26. > :30:33.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:34. > :30:41.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:42. > :30:47.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:48. > :30:56.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:57. > :30:59.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:00. > :31:05.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:06. > :31:09.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:10. > :31:17.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:18. > :31:24.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:25. > :31:27.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:28. > :31:31.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:32. > :31:37.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:38. > :31:44.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:45. > :31:48.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:49. > :31:51.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:52. > :31:59.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:00. > :32:05.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:06. > :32:10.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:11. > :32:17.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:18. > :32:22.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:23. > :32:29.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:30. > :32:33.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:34. > :32:37.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:38. > :32:42.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:43. > :32:47.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:48. > :32:52.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:53. > :32:56.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:57. > :33:02.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:03. > :33:07.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:08. > :33:15.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:16. > :33:19.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:20. > :33:25.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:26. > :33:35.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:36. > :33:40.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:41. > :33:44.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:45. > :33:50.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:51. > :33:57.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:58. > :34:09.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:10. > :34:12.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:13. > :34:16.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:17. > :34:27.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:28. > :34:31.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:32. > :34:37.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:38. > :34:41.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:42. > :34:48.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:49. > :34:54.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:55. > :35:00.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:01. > :35:05.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:06. > :35:08.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:09. > :35:13.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:14. > :35:17.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:18. > :35:22.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:23. > :35:29.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:30. > :35:31.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:32. > :35:36.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:37. > :35:41.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:42. > :35:45.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:46. > :35:49.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:50. > :35:54.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:55. > :36:00.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:01. > :36:04.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:05. > :36:09.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:10. > :36:17.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:18. > :36:23.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:24. > :36:28.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:29. > :36:31.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:32. > :36:35.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:36. > :36:41.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:42. > :36:46.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:47. > :36:50.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:51. > :36:55.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:56. > :36:58.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:36:59. > :37:02.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:03. > :37:05.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:06. > :37:09.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:10. > :37:17.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:18. > :37:22.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:23. > :37:27.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:28. > :37:30.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:31. > :37:35.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:36. > :37:40.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:41. > :37:44.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:45. > :37:52.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:53. > :38:07.Hi, I'm Natalie Graham and this is The Sunday Politics
:38:08. > :38:10.Coming up later, we have been out and about in Canterbury,
:38:11. > :38:14.And we have been asking people there what they think
:38:15. > :38:17.Joining me in the studio today are Peter Kyle,
:38:18. > :38:20.the Labour MP for Hove and Portslade, and Diane James,
:38:21. > :38:22.formerly of Ukip, but now sitting as an independent MEP for the
:38:23. > :38:29.South East. Welcome to you both.
:38:30. > :38:32.Now, Diane was briefly the leader of Ukip last year, for 18 days.
:38:33. > :38:34.She took everyone by surprise when she stood down,
:38:35. > :38:36.saying she "didn't have sufficient authority or support
:38:37. > :38:38.of her colleagues to implement what she thought was necessary".
:38:39. > :38:41.Since she left the party, its leader Paul Nuttall failed
:38:42. > :38:43.to win the Stoke by-election and, last week, the party's
:38:44. > :38:47.only MP Douglas Carswell followed Diane's lead,
:38:48. > :38:52.declaring himself an Independent last weekend.
:38:53. > :38:55.So, this is the first chance we have had to talk to you about all that.
:38:56. > :38:59.You said at the time it was personally and
:39:00. > :39:02.Do you regret standing as leader now?
:39:03. > :39:04.No, I do not regret standing as leader.
:39:05. > :39:07.I would have loved to have continued, but I made it very plain
:39:08. > :39:10.in my statement why I stood down, why I relinquished the leader-elect.
:39:11. > :39:12.Remember, I did not actually finalise everything.
:39:13. > :39:16.I would have loved to have continued,
:39:17. > :39:20.but it was not going to be possible and Ukip is now going to go on
:39:21. > :39:24.Again, it has been a few interesting months for the party
:39:25. > :39:28.At the time of your departure, Nigel Farage
:39:29. > :39:30.said your standing down was "an act of irrational selfishness".
:39:31. > :39:39.I met with Nigel only a couple of weeks ago, in Strasbourg.
:39:40. > :39:44.I understand why he said those words.
:39:45. > :39:47.Ukip is effectively his baby and he is very protective of it.
:39:48. > :39:50.He had hoped to hand over the mantle of leadership to me.
:39:51. > :39:58.There it is, in terms of his statement.
:39:59. > :40:01.Words are words and I am a much stronger person
:40:02. > :40:05.then having that sort of thing hurt me.
:40:06. > :40:07.You stood down as leader, but then decided to leave the party.
:40:08. > :40:11.Why do that? That is quite a different thing.
:40:12. > :40:14.Well, I think the issue for me was very much that I wanted
:40:15. > :40:19.Paul to have a fresh start and a fresh sea and,
:40:20. > :40:25.effectively, aa fresh environment to operate in as the new leader.
:40:26. > :40:28.He did not need me there in the background and, potentially,
:40:29. > :40:30.a lot of individuals, both in the media and members,
:40:31. > :40:32.such as those in the NEC, constantly saying,
:40:33. > :40:35."Would Diane have done that? Would Nigel have done that?"
:40:36. > :40:39.He has got a very good relationship with Nigel.
:40:40. > :40:40.He did not need his predecessor there,
:40:41. > :40:43.almost haunting him, in the background.
:40:44. > :40:45.But again, he has had an interesting time ever since
:40:46. > :40:51.You described Ukip as an opposition party in waiting when you took
:40:52. > :40:59.It is not exactly like that now, now that it has lost its only MP,
:41:00. > :41:07.Is it a party in decline, now that you are on the outside?
:41:08. > :41:09.I do not think it is a party in decline.
:41:10. > :41:12.I actually spoke to the media quite a bit the day
:41:13. > :41:15.With all due respect to my colleague here
:41:16. > :41:17.from the House of Commons representatives of the Labour
:41:18. > :41:20.Party, I made the point that, for Labour to stop Paul,
:41:21. > :41:22.personally, to stop Paul Nuttall, the leader of a political
:41:23. > :41:25.opposition party, and to stop Ukip, it was worthwhile sacrificing
:41:26. > :41:28.Copeland, which I think the strategy was.
:41:29. > :41:34.As that is not in this area, we are not going to dwell on that.
:41:35. > :41:40.Are you saying losing was all part of the strategy?
:41:41. > :41:43.No, for Labour, it was all about stopping him in that
:41:44. > :41:46.Surely that is what by-elections are all about?
:41:47. > :41:51.But I feel I could explain, or give an explanation, as to why
:41:52. > :41:53.Paul and Ukip did not take that by-election.
:41:54. > :41:58.No, I don't think it is. No, I don't think it is.
:41:59. > :42:01.What I do believe is happening is an evolution, in terms
:42:02. > :42:05.If you go back to the Coalition, for example, the referendum result.
:42:06. > :42:07.You can look at the general election.
:42:08. > :42:18.And there is a need for an alternative political voice.
:42:19. > :42:21.If you go back to just this Tuesday, with some of the programming
:42:22. > :42:23.on the BBC, in particular, and Andrew Neil's programme,
:42:24. > :42:26.who would have thought that three political party leaders would
:42:27. > :42:27.have been interviewed after the Prime Minister
:42:28. > :42:40.Diane, your actions speak very differently to your words.
:42:41. > :42:42.You are talking about being an alternative political
:42:43. > :42:44.voice, but you cannot really do that being an independent.
:42:45. > :42:46.You have left to become an independent and the only
:42:47. > :42:51.Ukip MP has left to become an independent.
:42:52. > :42:52.All the people in leadership roles are moving away
:42:53. > :42:55.from the party, so how can you become an alternative voice?
:42:56. > :42:57.You say you want to be an alternative voice
:42:58. > :43:00.Well, thank you for the interruption.
:43:01. > :43:03.But let us look at what is happening, in terms of
:43:04. > :43:07.I don't think it is necessarily going to be political parties.
:43:08. > :43:09.Almost every, shall we say, political party, seems
:43:10. > :43:11.to have a shadow, in terms of the movement.
:43:12. > :43:19.are going to have amovement shadowing them.
:43:20. > :43:21.are going to have a movement shadowing them.
:43:22. > :43:23.I'll talk to Peter now about the nature of opposition.
:43:24. > :43:26.Whether or not Ukip look like an opposition party in waiting,
:43:27. > :43:27.there have been a few times recently when
:43:28. > :43:30.the Labour Party do not exactly like the official opposition.
:43:31. > :43:32.What it seems like is that the people
:43:33. > :43:35.holding the government's feet to the fire over a range of issues,
:43:36. > :43:36.whether it is national insurance contributions
:43:37. > :43:38.of fairer schools funding, is Conservative backbench MPs,
:43:39. > :43:42.We do live in very strange political times, but the Labour Party does
:43:43. > :43:48.We are a broad movement and we are a significant force, both in
:43:49. > :43:49.Parliament and up and down the country, running
:43:50. > :43:56.We are a serious political force and we are broadly moving in
:43:57. > :44:01.the direction of delivering fairness and that we are speaking up for...
:44:02. > :44:03.But Theresa May is not very scared of you, is she?
:44:04. > :44:05.She laughs when Jeremy Corbyn asks something at Prime
:44:06. > :44:08.She is more scared of her own backbenchers,
:44:09. > :44:17.you might argue, than the people sitting opposite.
:44:18. > :44:20.What I do agree with in your analysis, and I do want to
:44:21. > :44:24.be really open about this, is that we do live in very strange
:44:25. > :44:25.political times, in that the referendum was
:44:26. > :44:28.delivered because a very small number of MPs in the Tory party,
:44:29. > :44:31.in a governing party that had no majority at all,
:44:32. > :44:38.because it was in coalition, they basically
:44:39. > :44:40.bullied Cameron and Osborne into delivering the referendum.
:44:41. > :44:42.So, a small number of conservatives have a
:44:43. > :44:44.disproportionate impact on the way the government is acting
:44:45. > :44:47.That is the weirdness in British politics and political
:44:48. > :44:50.discourse right now. That is where the nub of it is.
:44:51. > :44:53.And what I find strange, if you don't mind me
:44:54. > :44:56.saying, is look at Gisela Stuart - a prominent Labour MP and prominent
:44:57. > :45:02.Six MPs out of 230. I would say that was unanimous.
:45:03. > :45:07.So, after months of debate and discussion, the government
:45:08. > :45:09.invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty this week,
:45:10. > :45:11.kick-starting talks on the terms of Brexit.
:45:12. > :45:13.So, as we embark on negotiations, what matters most to people
:45:14. > :45:17.Bhavani Vadde went to Canterbury, to gauge the mood.
:45:18. > :45:20.This medieval gatehouse used to mark the separation of Canterbury
:45:21. > :45:26.This week, the Prime Minister triggered the start of
:45:27. > :45:29.negotiations to another historic separation -
:45:30. > :45:32.that of Britain's divorce from the European Union.
:45:33. > :45:34.The Article 50 process is now underway.
:45:35. > :45:36.And in accordance with the wishes of the British people,
:45:37. > :45:38.the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.
:45:39. > :45:41.This is an historic moment from which there can be no
:45:42. > :45:52.So, if they had the chance, what would voters in the South
:45:53. > :45:58.East say to Theresa May at this historic moment?
:45:59. > :46:11.Morning. Hi.
:46:12. > :46:20.So, in terms of the South East, what should the Prime Minister
:46:21. > :46:24.be prioritising in these talks with the EU?
:46:25. > :46:29.We are taking that question to the streets of Canterbury.
:46:30. > :46:30.The referendum result here closely mirrored the way
:46:31. > :46:37.So, what are people's thoughts this week?
:46:38. > :46:43.Well done, Mrs May! Well done!
:46:44. > :46:45.None of the politicians know what they are doing.
:46:46. > :46:51.The fisheries have had a very hard time of it from Europe.
:46:52. > :46:57.They just need clarification, to get their fishing fields back again.
:46:58. > :47:04.Please let me feel secure and let me finish my
:47:05. > :47:10.Well, I would say, "Theresa, go ahead."
:47:11. > :47:23.She has triggered Article 50 this week.
:47:24. > :47:25.Is this not important for the South East?
:47:26. > :47:27.This is quite a rich part of the world.
:47:28. > :47:30.You can see in the street today, thousands of tourists come
:47:31. > :47:34.here, spending money, in Canterbury. Absolutely no difference.
:47:35. > :47:37.She is saying she's going to be making this deal for everybody.
:47:38. > :47:40.But I bet she is not going to make it for everybody.
:47:41. > :47:45.It will be just for the 'Euro-septics'.
:47:46. > :47:47.You have got to sort out the ports, Theresa, OK?
:47:48. > :47:53.There's a lot of agriculture around here.
:47:54. > :47:56.There is a lot of Polish, Latvian - Eastern European people.
:47:57. > :47:59.When it comes to all these people not being allowed in, the farmers
:48:00. > :48:05.The notion that may be harder in the future to travel
:48:06. > :48:08.to the Continent and live on the Continent is a bit
:48:09. > :48:12.So, that is the word on the street, and this politics professor,
:48:13. > :48:14.who teaches in Canterbury, believes that, amongst other things,
:48:15. > :48:16.the issues of border security, what will replace
:48:17. > :48:18.the Common Agricultural Policy and immigration will be key
:48:19. > :48:27.I think one of the things MPs in the South East have to make
:48:28. > :48:29.clear is that there are, sort of, collective
:48:30. > :48:31.South East interests which are different from the
:48:32. > :48:40.Absolutely crucially, it does have this border aspect and
:48:41. > :48:42.it does bear a lot of the consequences of whatever
:48:43. > :48:44.the relationship is with France, for example,
:48:45. > :48:47.with what we have in place, for instance, with regard to
:48:48. > :48:53.The people we spoke to in Canterbury still seem polarised, even though
:48:54. > :48:55.the formal process of leaving the EU has now started.
:48:56. > :49:08.I will ask you first, Peter, how do you feel
:49:09. > :49:13.I really want to get stuck into this debate,
:49:14. > :49:15.because there are massive issues at stake.
:49:16. > :49:19.The first priority for me is that we make sure we hold
:49:20. > :49:21.to government's feet to the fire on trade.
:49:22. > :49:25.There is no institutional memory in our country
:49:26. > :49:27.any more of trading with the EU outside of the EU.
:49:28. > :49:33.Last year, we had massive tailbacks trying to
:49:34. > :49:38.The conservative estimate is that there will be five times
:49:39. > :49:40.more border crossings once we leave the single market.
:49:41. > :49:42.The government has promised that what comes next
:49:43. > :49:51.and I am quoting verbatim - "exactly the same as we have now".
:49:52. > :49:54.They have to deliver on that, because the stakes are incredibly
:49:55. > :49:56.high for our economy here, particularly in the South East,
:49:57. > :50:01.Diane James, I will ask you the same question.
:50:02. > :50:04.How did you feel when Article 50 was finally triggered?
:50:05. > :50:06.I am pleased, but I am almost rather anxious,
:50:07. > :50:11.in a way, because the debate that is starting is very much
:50:12. > :50:15.more of Project Fear, particularly from
:50:16. > :50:18.the EU at the moment. Project Revenge, Project Penalise.
:50:19. > :50:19.Penalise the UK for even having the temerity
:50:20. > :50:24.Is that not what you are accusing Peter of when he raises concerns?
:50:25. > :50:32.I have looked at the six points that the Labour Party have
:50:33. > :50:34.announced, in terms of, if you like, their checks -
:50:35. > :50:39.I looked at some of them and I thought,
:50:40. > :50:41.well, it ignores the UK's acknowledged lead on
:50:42. > :50:49.There are other aspects for me that show clearly that
:50:50. > :50:52.the Labour Party is committed to remaining in the European Union
:50:53. > :50:54.and will not be supporting the government.
:50:55. > :50:57.That raises another question for me, which is what are my Labour MEP
:50:58. > :50:59.colleagues going to be doing in Brussels?
:51:00. > :51:01.Are they going to be siding with the EU, rather than
:51:02. > :51:07.Everything you have said is the politics of grievance.
:51:08. > :51:12.Now, it is your job to go ahead and deliver it.
:51:13. > :51:14.You cannot sit here and say, we have triggered this
:51:15. > :51:18.divorce, we want the other party to sit back and roll to one side and
:51:19. > :51:39.Of course they're going to negotiate heart. I expect you as a pioneer of
:51:40. > :51:49.the position we are endowed not to sit here and complain. I am not
:51:50. > :51:58.complaining. I am criticising the positioning the European Union has
:51:59. > :52:04.taken up until now. That we are going to institute thesis and more
:52:05. > :52:10.checks for people crossing the Channel. These are the exact same
:52:11. > :52:21.threats that we have made. This was not mentioned that the Labour Party
:52:22. > :52:33.have said. It is not even something they can agree on. If we make big
:52:34. > :52:37.promises to the public that leaving the United Kingdom -- European Union
:52:38. > :52:47.will make big changes to immigration, to fisheries. The
:52:48. > :52:54.government have said they did not want to restrict the labour going to
:52:55. > :53:02.our economy. The majority of that comes from and with the European
:53:03. > :53:10.Union. They did say last week immigration local up-and-down
:53:11. > :53:19.according to our economic needs. It is a clear message of what people
:53:20. > :53:29.accept is the issue of control. I am not a member of the Conservative
:53:30. > :53:35.Party. What I want to see is a programme which interacts with
:53:36. > :53:41.sectors of industry to actually resolve the numbers we need, the
:53:42. > :53:49.expertise we need and the amount of seasonal workers we need. If the
:53:50. > :53:58.public understand that, I think the numbers then start to dilute. We are
:53:59. > :54:00.going to stick with Brexit. As the Brexit negotiations progress,
:54:01. > :54:03.they will be scrutinised in detail by the public,
:54:04. > :54:05.MPs, and experts from all In Parliament, a special
:54:06. > :54:08.Select Committee has been set up to look in detail at the work
:54:09. > :54:11.being done by the government Their first report was due to be
:54:12. > :54:15.published this week, but has been delayed,
:54:16. > :54:17.after a group of MPs walked out because, in their view,
:54:18. > :54:20.the tone of the report One of those MPs is
:54:21. > :54:23.the Conservative, Maria Caulfield. She joins us now from Newhaven
:54:24. > :54:25.in her constituency. So, what happened at that meeting?
:54:26. > :54:48.Did you storm out? The committee has already published
:54:49. > :54:52.two reports. We asked the government to produce a white paper over the
:54:53. > :55:05.negotiations with the European Union. A second report has called
:55:06. > :55:13.for the likes of European nationals to be Peter Wrekenton guaranteed. We
:55:14. > :55:21.have produced two reports. Both of has seen action. We have got the
:55:22. > :55:28.third due out. That is looking at the White Paper produced in
:55:29. > :55:35.scrutinising, so I cannot reap report on alert at the moment. It
:55:36. > :55:39.was just the speculation as to whether you had walked out. This is
:55:40. > :55:48.just the beginning, so to do that at the stage does not board well. Most
:55:49. > :55:56.of meetings are in public. The reports can be read as well. I
:55:57. > :56:03.cannot comment on Private meetings within the committee and the
:56:04. > :56:10.discussions before we produce the report. We want the MPs to come
:56:11. > :56:15.together to hold the government to account to get the best possible
:56:16. > :56:21.deal for the United Kingdom. I can confirm that the third report will
:56:22. > :56:33.be published on Tuesday. You have been talking to people within the
:56:34. > :56:36.constituency. Are you concerned that people will be disappointed with the
:56:37. > :56:48.negotiations? I do not think they will be disappointed. We want the
:56:49. > :56:54.government to make a stand on the status of the European Union
:56:55. > :56:59.nationals living of and we want a commitment on alert. We will be
:57:00. > :57:08.pushing to make sure that the British farming and fishing sectors
:57:09. > :57:17.are supported. We also have a lot of people working in education and
:57:18. > :57:21.universities. There is a favourite very diverse range of people with in
:57:22. > :57:27.this constituency. That is why I will be holding a number of clinics
:57:28. > :57:32.for people to come and express their concerns and their wishes to make
:57:33. > :57:51.sure that the is heard. Thank you for joining us. You really remain MP
:57:52. > :57:54.any remain constituency. Hope all you represent your constituency? Is
:57:55. > :58:07.it your job to frustrate the government? I think we have to go
:58:08. > :58:17.through all this old legislation. These are very complicated. People
:58:18. > :58:22.are desperately worried that the biggest export market is about to
:58:23. > :58:29.disappear. We have to be really careful. We need to understand the
:58:30. > :58:35.consequences of everything before we do it. I just want to make sure we
:58:36. > :58:45.do it right. Diane, in practical terms, though that you Ukip does not
:58:46. > :58:56.even have an MP, who do they hold the government fee to the fire? If
:58:57. > :59:10.people were to compare the six points which came from Ukip, which
:59:11. > :59:16.were much more realistic. But they cannot put any pressure in
:59:17. > :59:19.Parliament on personal MPs. I appreciate that. But they still
:59:20. > :59:24.think they have to be listened to. And now it is time for some
:59:25. > :59:28.of the other news you may have missed in Sixty Seconds,
:59:29. > :59:29.with Rajdeep Sandhu. A property mogul is being
:59:30. > :59:31.investigated by Kent Police and the Equality and Human Rights
:59:32. > :59:33.Commission over Fergus Wilson, who owns hundreds
:59:34. > :59:37.of buy-to-let properties in Kent said he did not want "coloured
:59:38. > :59:39.people renting his homes He says it is an economic decision,
:59:40. > :59:43.based on cleaning costs. At the end of the day,
:59:44. > :59:46.it is up to me who goes The Equality and Human
:59:47. > :59:51.Rights Commission said his remarks were "truly
:59:52. > :59:52.disgusting and unlawful". A cash-strapped primary school
:59:53. > :59:55.is asking parents to donate St John's Primary School
:59:56. > :59:58.in Crowborough held a non-uniform Instead of donating to charity,
:59:59. > :00:02.pupils were asked to bring The headteacher said schools
:00:03. > :00:09.were under huge financial strain. A report by the Chief Inspector
:00:10. > :00:11.of Prisons says there has been an increase in people
:00:12. > :00:13.being detained by Sussex Police It says limited access to hospital
:00:14. > :00:17.beds result in too many vulnerable Sussex Police says their focus
:00:18. > :00:29.is on keeping people safe. That is all we have got time
:00:30. > :00:32.for from the South East this week. My thanks to our guests for today,
:00:33. > :00:35.Diane James and Peter Kyle. We are off air for a couple of
:00:36. > :00:39.weeks, as Parliament is in recess. We will be back after Easter,
:00:40. > :00:41.with all the political news and chat in the South East.
:00:42. > :01:05.Bye for now. So, what will be the effect
:01:06. > :01:07.of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand
:01:08. > :01:11.trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really
:01:12. > :01:13.going to replace Labour, To answer that last question,
:01:14. > :01:26.I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair
:01:27. > :01:37.Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems
:01:38. > :01:43.will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and
:01:44. > :01:50.see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a
:01:51. > :01:53.dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in
:01:54. > :02:01.Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election
:02:02. > :02:05.rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country,
:02:06. > :02:14.the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of
:02:15. > :02:18.the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is
:02:19. > :02:25.because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a
:02:26. > :02:28.self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local
:02:29. > :02:33.elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did
:02:34. > :02:39.very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It
:02:40. > :02:43.will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no
:02:44. > :02:48.argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling
:02:49. > :02:52.you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in
:02:53. > :02:57.the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections
:02:58. > :03:03.write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal
:03:04. > :03:06.Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative
:03:07. > :03:13.Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But
:03:14. > :03:19.in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit.
:03:20. > :03:25.In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in
:03:26. > :03:30.which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over
:03:31. > :03:33.the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local
:03:34. > :03:39.elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody
:03:40. > :03:46.vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren
:03:47. > :03:52.has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you
:03:53. > :03:56.are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will
:03:57. > :03:59.be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your
:04:00. > :04:08.local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from
:04:09. > :04:12.previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a
:04:13. > :04:18.few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to
:04:19. > :04:21.get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat
:04:22. > :04:28.councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a
:04:29. > :04:33.believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to
:04:34. > :04:37.have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is
:04:38. > :04:41.having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole
:04:42. > :04:45.country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we
:04:46. > :04:49.have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the
:04:50. > :04:54.deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could
:04:55. > :04:59.really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big
:05:00. > :05:03.chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due
:05:04. > :05:11.in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you.
:05:12. > :05:14.There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is
:05:15. > :05:18.anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the
:05:19. > :05:25.Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the
:05:26. > :05:31.Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them
:05:32. > :05:36.behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your
:05:37. > :05:40.party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and
:05:41. > :05:45.the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up
:05:46. > :05:53.with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks
:05:54. > :05:59.for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit
:06:00. > :06:04.changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal
:06:05. > :06:08.allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you
:06:09. > :06:15.start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play
:06:16. > :06:22.at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40
:06:23. > :06:28.5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits,
:06:29. > :06:34.removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that
:06:35. > :06:41.is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax
:06:42. > :06:47.credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The
:06:48. > :06:51.Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that
:06:52. > :06:57.when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better
:06:58. > :07:06.off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened
:07:07. > :07:12.to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find
:07:13. > :07:17.the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong?
:07:18. > :07:22.They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other
:07:23. > :07:27.organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some
:07:28. > :07:30.question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory
:07:31. > :07:35.government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor
:07:36. > :07:40.poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be
:07:41. > :07:48.those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the
:07:49. > :07:52.state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just
:07:53. > :07:55.about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the
:07:56. > :08:00.government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She
:08:01. > :08:05.sounded like a big government conservative not small government.
:08:06. > :08:12.In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good
:08:13. > :08:17.the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher.
:08:18. > :08:22.Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even
:08:23. > :08:28.if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as
:08:29. > :08:31.well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution
:08:32. > :08:35.Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget
:08:36. > :08:40.measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked
:08:41. > :08:44.out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the
:08:45. > :08:49.demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax
:08:50. > :08:53.rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance.
:08:54. > :08:58.There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray
:08:59. > :09:03.in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include
:09:04. > :09:07.the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not
:09:08. > :09:10.include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours
:09:11. > :09:16.of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does
:09:17. > :09:20.not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households.
:09:21. > :09:26.Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a
:09:27. > :09:28.problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose
:09:29. > :09:34.in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has
:09:35. > :09:39.which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn
:09:40. > :09:43.Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's
:09:44. > :09:49.massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through
:09:50. > :09:52.with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher
:09:53. > :09:56.rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just
:09:57. > :09:59.about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the
:10:00. > :10:04.Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to
:10:05. > :10:08.ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute...
:10:09. > :10:14.It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A
:10:15. > :10:18.huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what
:10:19. > :10:22.Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money
:10:23. > :10:27.to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the
:10:28. > :10:31.Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half
:10:32. > :10:36.days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor
:10:37. > :10:42.looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to
:10:43. > :10:47.get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory
:10:48. > :10:51.manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no
:10:52. > :10:56.increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices
:10:57. > :11:02.were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising
:11:03. > :11:05.again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly
:11:06. > :11:10.complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to
:11:11. > :11:15.raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never
:11:16. > :11:21.end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to
:11:22. > :11:25.fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with
:11:26. > :11:30.Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early
:11:31. > :11:34.election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early
:11:35. > :11:37.election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster
:11:38. > :11:44.partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they
:11:45. > :11:51.could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for
:11:52. > :11:53.public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on
:11:54. > :11:59.Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You
:12:00. > :12:05.can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go
:12:06. > :12:10.is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He
:12:11. > :12:16.cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020
:12:17. > :12:21.without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary
:12:22. > :12:29.and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up
:12:30. > :12:36.trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly
:12:37. > :12:41.not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere
:12:42. > :12:45.too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal
:12:46. > :12:49.with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and
:12:50. > :12:52.they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before
:12:53. > :12:57.they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital
:12:58. > :13:01.preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what
:13:02. > :13:06.they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything
:13:07. > :13:12.for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are
:13:13. > :13:16.on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We
:13:17. > :13:20.should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is
:13:21. > :13:25.now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the
:13:26. > :13:30.opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain
:13:31. > :13:36.is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of
:13:37. > :13:40.energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they
:13:41. > :13:46.might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is
:13:47. > :13:50.it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks'
:13:51. > :13:52.time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that
:13:53. > :14:21.used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes
:14:22. > :14:24.on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself
:14:25. > :14:28.from her party's controversial past, we follow the money and ask,
:14:29. > :14:52."Who's funding her campaign?" I think I've died and gone to
:14:53. > :15:01.heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin. So, can anybody speak Italian?
:15:02. > :15:05.No. Non parlo italiano. Can ten Brits looking for
:15:06. > :15:18.a new life start again?