23/04/2017

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:00:37. > :00:39.It's Sunday afternoon - this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:40. > :00:42.Jeremy Corbyn wants to give everyone in Britain four

:00:43. > :00:45.extra bank holidays - but is the Labour leader up

:00:46. > :00:47.to being Prime Minister if he wins the election in just

:00:48. > :00:53.Theresa May says she wants a stronger hand to deliver Brexit -

:00:54. > :00:56.how will the Conservatives go about getting the bigger

:00:57. > :01:02.I'll be asking Party Chairman, Patrick McLoughlin.

:01:03. > :01:07.And I've been in Paris where voters are going to the polls in first

:01:08. > :01:10.round of the French Presidential election - what could be the impact

:01:11. > :01:17.And in the South East: unpredictable of contests?

:01:18. > :01:20.This region is a political sea of blue, so where will

:01:21. > :01:24.the big battles be here and could any of our seats

:01:25. > :01:26.Or feel they may not like it but the Tories

:01:27. > :01:41.And with me has always ready for the marathon task of covering a snap

:01:42. > :01:44.general election, even working on bank holidays, the best and

:01:45. > :01:45.brightest political panel in the business. David Wooding, Polly

:01:46. > :01:49.Toynbee and Toby Young. So Labour's big announcement this

:01:50. > :01:51.morning was a crowd pleaser. Four more rainy bank

:01:52. > :01:53.holidays to enjoy - one for each of the patron saints

:01:54. > :01:55.of England, Scotland, But Mr Corbyn probably won't be

:01:56. > :02:01.getting the time off work if he wins And on The Andrew Marr Show this

:02:02. > :02:06.morning he was asked what he would do as Prime Minister

:02:07. > :02:09.if the security services asked him to authorise a drone strike

:02:10. > :02:12.on the leader of Islamic State. What I'd tell them is,

:02:13. > :02:16.give me the information you've got, tell me how accurate that is,

:02:17. > :02:18.tell me what you I'm asking you about decisions you

:02:19. > :02:27.would take as Prime Minister. Can I take you back

:02:28. > :02:30.to the whole point? Is the objective

:02:31. > :02:33.to start more strikes that may kill many innocent

:02:34. > :02:36.people, as has happened? Do you think killing

:02:37. > :02:38.the leader of Isis would be I think the leader of Isis not

:02:39. > :02:47.being around would be helpful, and I'm no supporter or defender

:02:48. > :02:49.in any way of Isis. But I would also argue that

:02:50. > :02:53.the bombing campaign has killed a of whom were virtually prisoners of

:02:54. > :02:56.Isis. So you've got to think

:02:57. > :03:03.about these things. Mr Corbyn earlier. David, is his

:03:04. > :03:08.reply refreshing damaging? It is damaging. He has clearly been

:03:09. > :03:12.freaked to the fire already in the first week, there will be lots of

:03:13. > :03:15.questions on his suitability as a leader and the damage it could cause

:03:16. > :03:19.to our national security over the weeks ahead and Andrew Marr has cut

:03:20. > :03:23.straight to the chase here. The other thing, of course, is the

:03:24. > :03:26.letters of last resort, one of the first duties of a Prime Minister

:03:27. > :03:32.when he walks into No 10 is to sign these letters on his own, on or --

:03:33. > :03:35.or on her own in a room, a very lonely moment, to decide whether he

:03:36. > :03:39.should press the nuclear button and that goes in the Vanguard submarines

:03:40. > :03:43.and is opened in the event of a strike and he has dodged a question

:03:44. > :03:47.so many times. One must wonder what he would do that. He has to make

:03:48. > :03:52.these decisions as Prime Minister. On the Isis point, refreshing or

:03:53. > :03:56.damaging? It sure is his base, the people who support him, that's the

:03:57. > :03:59.sort of thing they support info and maybe his tactic is that's all he's

:04:00. > :04:03.going to get, that is what the polls seem to suggest, in which case they

:04:04. > :04:07.will be pleased, and say yes, the man is a man for these who doesn't

:04:08. > :04:13.press buttons and shoot people down. But if you want to win you have to

:04:14. > :04:17.deal with your own weaknesses and reach out to other people. I think

:04:18. > :04:23.most people would say that's not somebody who could defend the

:04:24. > :04:26.country. I wonder if he was being totally honest in saying he would

:04:27. > :04:31.consider it he would ask for more information. He has previously been

:04:32. > :04:34.on the record as being against drone strikes in principle, he's

:04:35. > :04:38.campaigned against them, he wants to abolish drones. I think Andrew Marr

:04:39. > :04:42.let him off saying it was a drone strike rather than a Navy SEAL or

:04:43. > :04:44.SAS operation and he had the fact that they could be collateral

:04:45. > :04:50.damage. We that's not his position because he condemned the

:04:51. > :04:54.assassination of Osama Bin Laden even though there was no collateral

:04:55. > :04:57.damage. David is right on the Trident point, he fetched the

:04:58. > :05:03.question. We heard Niall Griffiths on this very show saying Trident,

:05:04. > :05:06.the renewal of Trident, would be in the next Labour Party manifesto. It

:05:07. > :05:10.turns out now we don't know and when he was asked he said that remains to

:05:11. > :05:14.be seen, his re-opened a can of worms. What he has said about

:05:15. > :05:18.Trident which was extraordinary was, we will rebuild the submarines but

:05:19. > :05:21.not have any nukes on them which is expensive and useless. And of course

:05:22. > :05:25.the Labour Party were forced soon after that interview to put out a

:05:26. > :05:31.statement saying it is Labour Party policy to renew Trident. So where

:05:32. > :05:35.are we? Do we know what the party's policy is? It is to renew Trident

:05:36. > :05:41.but he has started this review which involves looking at it all again. We

:05:42. > :05:45.know he is a unilateralist to start with but whether he can force this

:05:46. > :05:50.through is dubious. Does it matter, though, if the party policy is in

:05:51. > :05:54.favour of Trident, if the leader is not? The potential Prime Minister is

:05:55. > :05:57.not? They split three ways when they went to vote on it in the Commons.

:05:58. > :06:01.The party agreed they were pro-Trident and when it came to the

:06:02. > :06:06.vote they split three ways. I think it's difficult for them, it's always

:06:07. > :06:10.been a really difficult issue for Labour. The question is whether you

:06:11. > :06:14.want to seal off your negatives, whether you really want to try and

:06:15. > :06:17.reach out to people. There are an awful lot of people who will like

:06:18. > :06:22.what he said, there are an awful lot of people that think we have been

:06:23. > :06:25.involved in terrible wars, we have wasted a lot of money and blood and

:06:26. > :06:30.let's just get back from the whole thing, let's retreat from the world

:06:31. > :06:33.and not try punching above our weight. There is something to be

:06:34. > :06:38.said for that and it is a reasonable argument. He's been true to himself

:06:39. > :06:41.on this. I think he is and Polly is right, lots of people will agree

:06:42. > :06:46.with him, not enough to win a general election, the latest ComRes

:06:47. > :06:49.poll shows Tories on 50% and Labour on 25 and as my colleague James

:06:50. > :06:52.Forsyth in the Spectator said if this was a boxing match it would

:06:53. > :06:54.have been stopped by now by the revelry. We are not stopping, we are

:06:55. > :06:55.going on. So the political parties have had

:06:56. > :06:58.to move into election mode Stand by for battle buses,

:06:59. > :07:02.mail shots and your social media timeline being bombarded

:07:03. > :07:03.by political propoganda. But none of this comes cheap -

:07:04. > :07:08.Adam's been doing his sums. Democracy is priceless but those

:07:09. > :07:13.planes, trains and automobiles used in the last election cost money

:07:14. > :07:16.and we know exactly how much, thanks to the Electoral

:07:17. > :07:22.Commission database. The Conservatives flew David Cameron

:07:23. > :07:26.to every part of the UK in one day on a private plane costing ?29,000,

:07:27. > :07:32.in-flight meals extra. They shelled out ?1.2 million

:07:33. > :07:37.for adverts on Facebook. The most expensive item was their

:07:38. > :07:42.election guru Lynton Crosby. They bought ?2.4 million worth

:07:43. > :07:44.of advice and research from his firm Labour's biggest expenditure

:07:45. > :07:51.was on good old-fashioned leaflets, costing ?7.4 million

:07:52. > :07:54.to print and deliver. Hope they didn't go straight

:07:55. > :07:59.into the recycling. Cheap for all the

:08:00. > :08:08.enjoyment it gave us. To turn a normal minibus

:08:09. > :08:10.into Harriet Harman's pink bus Nick Clegg toured the country doing

:08:11. > :08:17.all manner of stunts transported although the party got a grand's

:08:18. > :08:30.discount when it broke down. Ukip's then leader Nigel Farage

:08:31. > :08:32.was accompanied by bodyguards Nicola Sturgeon's chopper

:08:33. > :08:41.cost the SNP ?35,450. Plaid Cymru spent just over

:08:42. > :08:44.?1,000 on media training And the Greens spent ?6,912

:08:45. > :08:58.promoting their tweets. It adds up to a grand total

:08:59. > :09:02.for all the parties of ?37,560,039. Jabbing at my calculator that works

:09:03. > :09:09.out at less than ?1 per voter. Adam Fleming there -

:09:10. > :09:14.and joining me now is the man responsible for the Conservative

:09:15. > :09:17.election campaigns - for the locals next month

:09:18. > :09:25.and the general election in June - Welcome to the programme. The Crown

:09:26. > :09:29.Prosecution Service is reviewing evidence from 14 police forces that

:09:30. > :09:34.your party breached election spending rules on multiple occasions

:09:35. > :09:39.in the last election. What are you going to do differently this time?

:09:40. > :09:45.Well, the battle buses are part of the National campaign spend. You saw

:09:46. > :09:48.them just on the shot that you did, all three parties had those battle

:09:49. > :09:52.buses so that's why we believe they were part of the national spend and

:09:53. > :09:56.it was declared that way. At least 30 people in your party, MPs and

:09:57. > :10:00.agents, being investigated because they may not have been right to

:10:01. > :10:03.include it in the national spend. Are you saying you are going to do

:10:04. > :10:11.nothing differently this time? You asked me about last time and the way

:10:12. > :10:14.the position is... Was. I asked you about this time. We will take a

:10:15. > :10:21.careful count and make sure that everything that we do is within the

:10:22. > :10:24.law. But as I say, the last election, all three parties had

:10:25. > :10:29.battle buses. It is your party that above all has been investigated by

:10:30. > :10:35.14 police forces. You must surely be taking stock of that and working out

:10:36. > :10:38.how to do some things differently. You are being investigated because

:10:39. > :10:42.you put stuff on the National Ledger which should have been on the local

:10:43. > :10:46.constituency ledger. Are you looking at that again? All of the parties

:10:47. > :10:49.had battle buses and they all put them on their national spend. I

:10:50. > :10:55.don't think any of the parties put them on the local spend. The other

:10:56. > :10:58.battle buses were not full of their party activists. Your party stuffed

:10:59. > :11:03.these battle buses with activists and took them to constituencies.

:11:04. > :11:08.That's the difference. And I ask again, what is different this time?

:11:09. > :11:11.Are you going to run the risk of being investigated yet again? We

:11:12. > :11:17.believe that we fully compliant with the electoral law as it was. What

:11:18. > :11:21.will happen if one of these, or two or three or four or five of these 30

:11:22. > :11:28.people, Tory MPs, or agents running campaigns are charged during the

:11:29. > :11:31.campaign? As I say I believe we properly declared our election

:11:32. > :11:34.expenses. What happens if they are charged? You asking me a

:11:35. > :11:38.hypothetical question, the importance of this election is about

:11:39. > :11:42.who is in Downing Street in seven weeks' time. Let me clarify this,

:11:43. > :11:46.you maintain that in 2015 you did nothing wrong with how you allocated

:11:47. > :11:49.the cost and the activities of the battle buses and you would do

:11:50. > :11:54.exactly the same this time round? What we did at the last election we

:11:55. > :11:59.believe fully complied with the law. So the battle buses this time,

:12:00. > :12:02.stocked full of activists, will still be charged to the national

:12:03. > :12:10.campaign even when they go to local constituencies? Will they? We will

:12:11. > :12:15.be looking at the way we do it, there is new guidance from the

:12:16. > :12:19.Electoral Commission out and we will look at that guidance. It is not the

:12:20. > :12:23.guidance, it is the lawful stop the Electoral Commission said that, if

:12:24. > :12:26.you look at the report they did on us, they said there was one area

:12:27. > :12:29.where we had over claimed, over declared, and another area we had

:12:30. > :12:32.and declared. We haven't worked out what to do

:12:33. > :12:36.yet, have you? We will get on with the campaign and

:12:37. > :12:39.start the campaign and I'm looking forward to the campaign.

:12:40. > :12:42.I'm trying to work out of the campaign is going to be legal or not

:12:43. > :12:46.because last time it seems it could have been illegal.

:12:47. > :12:48.I am sure the campaign will be legal.

:12:49. > :12:53.You started the campaign warning about the prospect of, the coalition

:12:54. > :13:01.of chaos. Mr Corbyn has ruled out a post-election coalition with the SNP

:13:02. > :13:03.and so have the Lib Dems so who is going to be in this coalition?

:13:04. > :13:05.Vince Cable said he was looking towards a possible coalition trying

:13:06. > :13:08.to stop a Conservative government. Is not the leader of the Lib Dems.

:13:09. > :13:14.He's an important voice in the Lib Dems. Who will be in it? Let's see

:13:15. > :13:18.because of the Conservative Party is not re-elected with a strong

:13:19. > :13:21.majority, what will happen? There will be a coalition stopping us

:13:22. > :13:25.doing the things we need to do. Who will be in it? It will be a

:13:26. > :13:29.coalition of the Labour Party, the SNP and the Liberal party. They have

:13:30. > :13:33.ruled it out. I think they would not rule it out if that was the

:13:34. > :13:37.situation. Like Theresa May not ruling out an election and then

:13:38. > :13:40.changing her mind? The things the Prime Minister said were very clear,

:13:41. > :13:44.once she had served Article 50 there was an opportunity, as we know

:13:45. > :13:48.today, there is going to be the start of a new government formed in

:13:49. > :13:52.France and in September we have the German elections. So it was quite

:13:53. > :13:58.right that we didn't get ourselves boxed into a timetable. That is why

:13:59. > :14:01.the Prime Minister took the view that they should be a general

:14:02. > :14:05.election to give her full strength of an electoral mandate when it

:14:06. > :14:12.comes to those negotiations. What about Mr Corbyn's plan for four new

:14:13. > :14:15.bank holidays, good idea? I'm not... If we get Corbyn in No 10 Downing St

:14:16. > :14:20.we will have a permanent bank holiday of the United Kingdom. We

:14:21. > :14:26.will have fewer bank holidays of most other major nations, most about

:14:27. > :14:30.major wealthy nations. What about at least one more? Well, look, he's

:14:31. > :14:35.talked about four bank holidays. Today would be a bank holiday and

:14:36. > :14:39.next Monday would be a bank holiday and the other week was a bank

:14:40. > :14:43.holiday too. I don't think it's very well thought out. It sounded more to

:14:44. > :14:46.me something like you get in school mock elections rather than proper

:14:47. > :14:50.elections. Your party is the self-styled party of the workers and

:14:51. > :14:54.you have no plans to give the workers even one extra bank holiday?

:14:55. > :14:59.What we want to do is ensure Britain is a strong economy and building on

:15:00. > :15:03.the jobs that we have created since 2010. We were told that by reducing

:15:04. > :15:08.public expenditure unemployment in this country would go up,

:15:09. > :15:12.unemployment has gone down and the number of jobs have gone up

:15:13. > :15:16.substantially. But no more bank holidays? Well, we will make our

:15:17. > :15:20.manifesto in due course but I don't think four bank holidays held in

:15:21. > :15:26.April, March and November are very attractive to people. When Ed

:15:27. > :15:35.Miliband as leader of the Labour Party suggested the government

:15:36. > :15:38.should control energy prices by capping them, the Conservatives

:15:39. > :15:42.described that as almost Communist and central planning. Do still take

:15:43. > :15:47.that view? You'll see what we have to say on energy prices. I didn't

:15:48. > :15:51.you about that, I asked you if you take the view... The Prime Minister

:15:52. > :15:54.made a speech at the Conservative Spring conference in which she

:15:55. > :15:57.outlined her dissatisfaction about people who are kept locked on a

:15:58. > :15:59.standard tariff and those are the issues we will address in the next

:16:00. > :16:05.few weeks when the manifesto was published.

:16:06. > :16:11.Would that be an act of communism? You will need to see what we say

:16:12. > :16:17.when we set out the policies. It could be. You could put a Communist

:16:18. > :16:21.act into your manifesto? I don't think you'll find a Communist

:16:22. > :16:25.manifesto in a Conservative manifesto which will be launched...

:16:26. > :16:30.You are planning to control prices? We will address what we think is

:16:31. > :16:33.unfairness in the energy market. Mr Jeremy Corbyn was reluctant this

:16:34. > :16:40.morning to sanction a drone strike. You heard us talking about it

:16:41. > :16:43.earlier against the leader of Islamic State if our intelligence

:16:44. > :16:48.services identified him. What would it achieve? When the Prime Minister

:16:49. > :16:53.gets certain advice in the national interests, she has to act been that.

:16:54. > :16:56.We've seen with Theresa May in her time as Home Secretary and Prime

:16:57. > :17:00.Minister, she's not afraid to take those very difficult decisions. What

:17:01. > :17:04.we say this morning from Jeremy Corbyn was a his tans, a reluctance.

:17:05. > :17:11.I don't think that serves the country well. What would it achieve

:17:12. > :17:15.if we take out the head of Islamic State he's replaced by somebody

:17:16. > :17:20.else. It brings their organisation into difficulties. It undermines

:17:21. > :17:25.their organisation. It shows we'll take every measure to undo an

:17:26. > :17:28.organisation which has organised terrorism in different parts of

:17:29. > :17:31.Europe, the UK. I think it is absolutely right the Prime Minister

:17:32. > :17:36.is prepared to take those kind of measures. Jeremy Corbyn said he

:17:37. > :17:41.wasn't prepared to take that. Because he wasn't sure what it would

:17:42. > :17:46.achieve. The Obama administration launched hundreds of drone strikes

:17:47. > :17:52.in various war zones and we in the west are still under attack on a

:17:53. > :17:57.regular basis. Mr Corbyn's basis was what would it achieve? It would

:17:58. > :18:02.achieve a safer position for the UK overall. The war on terrorists. But

:18:03. > :18:07.the Westminster attack, Paris has just been attacked again? There's

:18:08. > :18:11.been attacks which have been stopped by the intelligence services. We

:18:12. > :18:15.must do all we can to support them. The question was about drone

:18:16. > :18:20.strikes. Whether it is drone strikes or other action, we have to be

:18:21. > :18:23.prepared to act. Let's move on to Brexit. It is the major reason the

:18:24. > :18:28.Prime Minister's called the election? Not the only within but

:18:29. > :18:32.the main reason? It is one of the reasons. Now we start the two-year

:18:33. > :18:37.negotiations and then a year afterwards. Also the way in which

:18:38. > :18:40.certain people said they would try to use in the House of Lords or

:18:41. > :18:47.House of Commons to prevent us making progress. I think you'll put

:18:48. > :18:53.in your manifesto, it is the Government's policy, the Brexit

:18:54. > :19:00.negotiating position will be no more freedom of movement. Leave the

:19:01. > :19:03.single market and no longer under the jurisdiction Europe. You expect

:19:04. > :19:09.every Tory MP to fight on that manifesto. What will you do with Ken

:19:10. > :19:13.Clarke and Anna? They will have fought on their manifesto. They will

:19:14. > :19:16.understand the Prime Minister has the authority of the ballot box

:19:17. > :19:21.behind them. Will they fight the election on these positions? I'm

:19:22. > :19:26.sure they'll fight the election supporting the election of a

:19:27. > :19:30.Conservative Government and it's manifesto will quite clearly set

:19:31. > :19:34.out... You know they're against these positions. Ken Clarke has a

:19:35. > :19:39.prod tradition of expressing a certain view. Overall, the party's

:19:40. > :19:43.manifesto, it is not just individuals like Ken Clarke, it is

:19:44. > :19:47.what happens as far as the House of Lords are concerned, people said

:19:48. > :19:51.they'd use the House of Lords to prevent certain measures. You're the

:19:52. > :19:56.party chairman, will it be possible for people like Ken Clarke to fight

:19:57. > :20:01.this election under the Conservative ticket without sub describing to all

:20:02. > :20:07.-- subscribing to all of these Brexit conditions? Ken Clarke will

:20:08. > :20:11.fight as Conservative candidates. That wasn't my question. I know

:20:12. > :20:15.that. Will they be allowed to fight it on their own ticket and not

:20:16. > :20:20.subscribe to what is in your manifesto? The manifesto will be

:20:21. > :20:24.what the Conservative Party fights the General Election on. There will

:20:25. > :20:30.always be cases where people have had different views on different

:20:31. > :20:36.parts of the manifesto. That will be the guiding principles for the

:20:37. > :20:41.party. Philip Hammond says your election promises in 2015, in your

:20:42. > :20:45.manifesto not to raise taxes tied his hands when it came to managing

:20:46. > :20:49.the economy. Do you agree with him? No. The simple fact is we have to do

:20:50. > :20:54.the best things for the economy. We'll set out in our manifesto in a

:20:55. > :20:59.few weeks' time, what the policies will be for the next Parliament. Can

:21:00. > :21:05.I clarify, you don't agree with your Chancellor? What Philip was saying

:21:06. > :21:09.was some of the areas we wants to address as Chancellor, what the

:21:10. > :21:13.party will do, it will set out all the issues we're fighting on. It

:21:14. > :21:17.will set out clearly the choice we have in this country. That's the

:21:18. > :21:21.important thing. Let me put the question to you again. Philip

:21:22. > :21:25.Hammond said this week your election promise in 2015 not to raise taxes

:21:26. > :21:31.had tied his hands when it came to managing the economy. I ask you, do

:21:32. > :21:36.you agree with him? You said no. Philip expressed his view as to what

:21:37. > :21:40.he would like. What I'm saying is in a few weeks' time we'll set the

:21:41. > :21:45.manifesto which will set the policies, agreed with the the

:21:46. > :21:48.Cabinet. He's Chancellor. Doesn't he determine what the economic part of

:21:49. > :21:54.the manifesto is? We'll talk about that in due course. Will you have a

:21:55. > :21:59.lock on the taxes that you locked in 2015 on income tax, VAT, national

:22:00. > :22:06.insurance? That will be decided. You'll see that when we publish the

:22:07. > :22:10.manifesto in a few weeks' time. Will you rule out the possibility taxes

:22:11. > :22:15.may have to rise under a future Conservative Party? Conservative

:22:16. > :22:21.Government. We've taken four million people out of tax. Now, on average,

:22:22. > :22:27.people are paying ?1200 less tax than they were on the same salaries

:22:28. > :22:29.in 2010. I'm very provide of that. I can assure you, the Conservative

:22:30. > :22:33.Party will want to see taxes reduced. It is the Labour Party

:22:34. > :22:39.which will put up taxes. We have the evidence where this he did so.

:22:40. > :22:45.Council tax went up by over 100%. You haven't reduced the tax burden

:22:46. > :22:50.as a percentage of the GDP is now going to reach its highest level

:22:51. > :22:56.since the mid-180s which was when Conservatives were in power. The tax

:22:57. > :22:59.burden in this country under your Government is rising? We've more

:23:00. > :23:02.people paying taxes which is something, because we've a growing

:23:03. > :23:07.economy and more people... What about the tax band? You said you

:23:08. > :23:12.reduced the tax burden on your own Government's figures is rising? We

:23:13. > :23:17.have reduced the tax burden. The threshold at which people start

:23:18. > :23:23.paying. These are tax rates not the tax burden. It is rising. The tax

:23:24. > :23:28.rates have been reduced. You said tax burden. Perhaps I misspoke. Tax

:23:29. > :23:36.rates have been reduced. We'll leave it there. No doubt we'll speak again

:23:37. > :23:37.between now and June Is France now about to make it

:23:38. > :23:42.a hat-trick of shocks The prospect terrifies

:23:43. > :23:45.the governing elite in Paris. But they're no less scared

:23:46. > :23:47.in Brussels and Berlin, given what it could mean

:23:48. > :23:49.for the whole EU project, never mind the huge potential impact

:23:50. > :24:09.on our own Brexit negotiations. 11 candidates are contesting

:24:10. > :24:12.the first round of the presidential Only the top two will go forward

:24:13. > :24:18.to the run-off on May 7th. For the first time since General De

:24:19. > :24:23.Gaulle created the fifth Republic in 1958, it's perfectly possible that

:24:24. > :24:27.no candidate from the ruling parties of the centre-left or the

:24:28. > :24:30.centre-right will even make it The election has been dominated by

:24:31. > :24:37.the hard right in the shape of the who's never been elected

:24:38. > :24:44.to anything and only started his own party

:24:45. > :24:46.a few months ago. And the far left in the form

:24:47. > :24:49.of Jean-Luc Melenchon, a former Trotskyite who has surged

:24:50. > :24:53.in the final weeks of the campaign. The only candidate left from the

:24:54. > :24:56.traditional governing parties is the centre-right's

:24:57. > :24:59.Francois Fillon and he's been struggling to stay in

:25:00. > :25:02.the race ever since it was revealed that his Welsh wife was being paid

:25:03. > :25:07.at generous public expense for a job I've just come across

:25:08. > :25:22.this magazine cover and it kind of sums up the mood

:25:23. > :25:25.of the French people. It's got the five main candidates

:25:26. > :25:28.for President here but it calls them the biggest liar, the biggest cheat,

:25:29. > :25:31.the biggest traitor, the most paranoid, the biggest demagogue,

:25:32. > :25:34.and it says they are the winners The four leading candidates,

:25:35. > :25:44.Le Pen, Melenchon, Macron and Fillon, or in with a chance

:25:45. > :25:48.of making it to the second round. Only a couple of points separates

:25:49. > :25:50.them in the polls, Frankly, no one has a clue what's

:25:51. > :25:56.going to happen. Of the four, there is a feeling that

:25:57. > :26:02.two of them may be President But the two of them may not find

:26:03. > :26:14.themselves in the second round. Somebody said to me that the man or

:26:15. > :26:28.woman on the Paris Metro has as much a chance of knowing

:26:29. > :26:32.who will win as the greatest experts Because the more expert you are

:26:33. > :26:39.the more you may be wrong. The country has largely

:26:40. > :26:44.stagnated for over a decade. One in ten are unemployed,

:26:45. > :26:47.one in four if you are unlucky Like Britain in the '70s there is

:26:48. > :26:51.the pervasive stench There are three keywords that come

:26:52. > :26:58.to mind. Anger, anger at the elite, and in

:26:59. > :27:05.particular the political elite. And an element of

:27:06. > :27:10.nostalgia for the past. These three words were decisive

:27:11. > :27:15.in the Brexit referendum. They are decisive in

:27:16. > :27:26.the French election. Identity and security has been

:27:27. > :27:30.as important in this election France is a proud nation, it worries

:27:31. > :27:37.about its future in Europe It seems bereft of ideas about how

:27:38. > :27:41.to deal with its largely Muslim migrant population, huge chunks of

:27:42. > :27:45.which are increasingly divorced It is quite simply exhausted by

:27:46. > :27:55.the never-ending Islamist terrorist attacks, the latest only days before

:27:56. > :27:59.voting in the iconic heart of this If Fillon or Macron emerge

:28:00. > :28:10.victorious then there will be continuity of sorts, though Fillon

:28:11. > :28:14.will struggle to implement his Thatcherite agenda and Macron will

:28:15. > :28:18.not be able to count on the support of the French parliament, the

:28:19. > :28:21.National Assembly, for his reforms. But if it's Le Pen or Jean-Luc

:28:22. > :28:27.Melenchon then all bets are off. Both are hardline French

:28:28. > :28:30.nationalists, anti the euro, anti the European Union, anti-fiscal

:28:31. > :28:33.discipline, anti the market, Either in the Elysee Palace

:28:34. > :28:42.would represent an existential Brexit would simply become

:28:43. > :28:51.a sideshow, the negotiations could just peter out as Brussels

:28:52. > :28:55.and Berlin had bigger fish to fry. We're joined now from

:28:56. > :29:07.Paris by the journalist 8th Welcome to the programme.

:29:08. > :29:11.Overshadowing the voting today was yet another appalling terrorist

:29:12. > :29:17.attack in Paris on Thursday night. Do we have any indications of how

:29:18. > :29:21.that's playing into the election? That initially people thought this

:29:22. > :29:27.has been almost foiled in that the police were there as a ramp up. One

:29:28. > :29:31.policeman was killed. But the terrorist did not spray the crowd

:29:32. > :29:36.with bullets. It was seen as not having much of an effect on the

:29:37. > :29:43.election. This has changed. We now know the policeman who was killed, a

:29:44. > :29:48.young man about to the promoted, he was at the Bataclan the night of the

:29:49. > :29:55.terror attack. He was a fighter for LGBT rights. The fact he was

:29:56. > :30:01.promoted, happy within his job, he has this fresh face. Sudden, he's

:30:02. > :30:07.one of us. It took perhaps 48 hours for the French to process this. But

:30:08. > :30:13.now they're angry and this may actually change the game, at least

:30:14. > :30:19.at the margins. To whose advantage? I would say the two who might

:30:20. > :30:23.benefit from this are Marine Le Pen, she's been absolutely

:30:24. > :30:28.anti-immigration, anti-anything. And made no bones about it as she

:30:29. > :30:32.immediately made rather strange announcement in which she'd said if

:30:33. > :30:36.she'd been president none of the terror attacks which happened in

:30:37. > :30:44.France would have happened. Francois Fillon has written a book two years

:30:45. > :30:48.ago called Combating Islamic Terrorism he's has an organised plan

:30:49. > :30:52.in his manifesto. Unlike Emmanuel Macron who stumbled when he was

:30:53. > :30:56.asked the evening this happened what he thought, he said, I can't dream

:30:57. > :31:00.up an anti-terror programme overnight. The question, of course,

:31:01. > :31:04.that arrows was this is not the sort of thing that's just happened

:31:05. > :31:09.overnight. It's been unfortunately the fate of France for many years.

:31:10. > :31:15.Let me ask you this finally, what ever the outcome on May 7th in the

:31:16. > :31:21.second round, who ever wins, would it be fair to say French politics

:31:22. > :31:24.will never be the same again? Yes. Absolutely it's a very strange

:31:25. > :31:28.thing. People have no become really excited about this. You cannot go

:31:29. > :31:33.anywhere without people discussing heatedly this election. The anger

:31:34. > :31:39.that was described is very accurate. Very true. There was this feeling as

:31:40. > :31:43.for the Brexit voters and the Trump voters, vast parts of the people

:31:44. > :31:50.were being talked down to by people who despised them. This has to

:31:51. > :31:55.change. If it doesn't change, we cannot predict what the future will

:31:56. > :32:00.be. We'll know the results or at least the ex-the Poll London time

:32:01. > :32:02.tonight at 8.00pm. Thank for joining us from the glorious heart of your

:32:03. > :32:06.city. Now, the Green Party currently has

:32:07. > :32:09.one MP and they'll be contesting many more seats in June

:32:10. > :32:12.as well as hoping to increase their presence on councils in

:32:13. > :32:14.the local elections on 4th May. Launching their campaign

:32:15. > :32:16.on Thursday, co-leader Caroline Lucas made

:32:17. > :32:18.a pitch to younger voters. When it comes to young

:32:19. > :32:20.people they've been But one crucial way they've been

:32:21. > :32:25.betrayed is by what this generation and this government and the previous

:32:26. > :32:28.ones have been doing when it comes We know we had the hottest year

:32:29. > :32:33.on record last year, you know, you almost think what else does

:32:34. > :32:35.the environment need to be doing All the signs are there

:32:36. > :32:39.and it is young people who are going to be bearing

:32:40. > :32:42.the brunt of a wrecked environment and that's why it's so important

:32:43. > :32:45.that when we come to making that pitch to, yes, the country at large

:32:46. > :32:48.but to young people in particular, I think climate change,

:32:49. > :32:50.the environment, looking after our precious resources,

:32:51. > :32:55.has to be up there. And I'm joined now by the Green

:32:56. > :33:09.MEP, Molly Scott Cato. Welcome back to the programme.

:33:10. > :33:13.Promised to scrap university tuition fees, increase NHS funding, rollback

:33:14. > :33:16.cuts to local councils spending, how much would that cost and how would

:33:17. > :33:20.you pay for it? Like the other parties we haven't got a costed

:33:21. > :33:23.manifesto yet, it's only a few days since the election was announced so

:33:24. > :33:27.I will come back and explain the figures. You don't know? Like every

:33:28. > :33:33.party we have not produced accosted manifesto yet, we produced one last

:33:34. > :33:36.time but public spending figures have changed so we're not in a

:33:37. > :33:41.position to do that but we will be in a week or so. What taxes would

:33:42. > :33:45.you like to consider raising? We would consider having higher taxes

:33:46. > :33:50.for the better off in society. I think we need to increase the amount

:33:51. > :33:53.of tax wealthier people pay. How do you define better off? I'm not

:33:54. > :33:59.entirely clear what the precise number would be but I think 100,000

:34:00. > :34:03.people would pay a bit more, 150,000 quite considerably more but the real

:34:04. > :34:06.focus needs to be on companies avoiding paying taxes. I work on

:34:07. > :34:09.that a lot in my role in the European Parliament, we see an

:34:10. > :34:12.enormous amount of tax avoidance by companies moving profits from

:34:13. > :34:16.country to country and we need European corporation to make that

:34:17. > :34:22.successful. It has not made much difference yet. We have made lots of

:34:23. > :34:25.changes. Google turned over $1 billion and only paid 25 million in

:34:26. > :34:30.taxes last year. There was a significant fine introduced by the

:34:31. > :34:34.competition commission on Apple and in the case of Google we must change

:34:35. > :34:40.the laws so that people cannot move profits from country to country.

:34:41. > :34:43.Everybody wants to do it. But you couldn't face a big spending

:34:44. > :34:47.programme on the ability to do that. You'd have to increase other taxes.

:34:48. > :34:50.If you look at the cost of free student tuition, tuition fees and

:34:51. > :34:53.also maintenance grants to students, that would come in at about 10

:34:54. > :34:57.billion a year. One way of paying for that would be to remove the

:34:58. > :35:00.upper threshold on National Insurance, bringing in 20 billion a

:35:01. > :35:05.year, that's the order of magnitude we are talking about. It is not

:35:06. > :35:09.vast, and some of the proposals we have... That would be an increase on

:35:10. > :35:15.the better of tax? National Insurance on people earning...

:35:16. > :35:20.People earning above 42,000. You would have another 10% tax above

:35:21. > :35:25.42,000? I can't remember exactly how much the National Insurance rate

:35:26. > :35:30.changes by. But in government figures it would be 28 billion

:35:31. > :35:33.raised. I think it is up to 45, a bit more you pay a marginal rate of

:35:34. > :35:38.40%, you would have them pay a marginal rate of over 50%? We would

:35:39. > :35:42.put the National Insurance rate on higher incomes the same as it is on

:35:43. > :35:46.lower incomes. If you are a school head of an English department on 50,

:35:47. > :35:52.60,000 a year you would face a marginal rate under U of over 50%?

:35:53. > :35:57.It is not useful to do this as a mental maths exercise but if you

:35:58. > :36:01.look at other proposals would could have a landlord licensing system,

:36:02. > :36:04.longer term leases on properties, so young people particularly, but also

:36:05. > :36:07.older people who rent, could have more security which needn't cost

:36:08. > :36:11.anything. We could insist on landlords paying for that. The

:36:12. > :36:15.mental arithmetic seems clear but we will come back to that. How is the

:36:16. > :36:20.Progressive Alliance coming? It is going well, I have heard of a lot of

:36:21. > :36:25.interest at local level. Winterset this in contest, context, lots of

:36:26. > :36:29.progressives are concerned about the crisis in public services, prisons,

:36:30. > :36:33.social care system, and also about the Tories' hard extreme Brexit they

:36:34. > :36:38.are threatening. You want the left to come together? Theresa May has

:36:39. > :36:41.given us opportunity, she has taken a risk because she has problems with

:36:42. > :36:44.backbenchers, she doesn't think she can get through Brexit with a small

:36:45. > :36:48.majority so there is an opportunity and we are saying progressives must

:36:49. > :36:50.come together to corporate, Conservatives are effective at using

:36:51. > :36:56.the first-past-the-post system and we have to become effective as well.

:36:57. > :36:59.Do you accept this Progressive Alliance cannot become the

:37:00. > :37:03.government and Mr Corbyn is the Prime Minister? How could it happen

:37:04. > :37:06.otherwise? I think that is a secondary question. For me the

:37:07. > :37:10.primary question is who do people choose to vote for? Aluminium

:37:11. > :37:14.government afterwards comes after the election. In most countries that

:37:15. > :37:17.is the case. I understand that but we have the system we have and you

:37:18. > :37:21.accept this Progressive Alliance cannot be in power and thus mystical

:37:22. > :37:24.Burmese Prime Minister? Personally I think Mr Corbyn is less of a threat

:37:25. > :37:27.to the country than Theresa May, she has shown herself to be an

:37:28. > :37:33.authoritarian leader and she has said she doesn't want to have

:37:34. > :37:35.dissidents, which I would say is reasonable opposition, and what we

:37:36. > :37:38.are suggesting at the moment is there is a way of avoiding that very

:37:39. > :37:41.hard Brexit and damage to public services. You'd be happy to pay the

:37:42. > :37:46.price of having Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister? I do not see that as a

:37:47. > :37:49.price. People have the choice of Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May as

:37:50. > :37:54.Prime Minister, that's the system that works. You would prefer Mr

:37:55. > :37:56.Corbyn? I would but votes are translated into seats and the

:37:57. > :37:58.Progressive Alliance is a step towards that.

:37:59. > :38:01.It's just gone 3:50pm, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:38:02. > :38:02.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, Wales

:38:03. > :38:04.and Northern Ireland who leave us now.

:38:05. > :38:13.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:38:14. > :38:15.I'm Natalie Graham and this is the Sunday Politics

:38:16. > :38:20.Nigel Farage won't be standing again for Ukip in South Thanet.

:38:21. > :38:27.We'll ask where his decision leaves the party he once led.

:38:28. > :38:30.So, five days after they learnt there was going to be

:38:31. > :38:32.a snap general election, I'm joined by two candidates who've

:38:33. > :38:38.Kelly Tolhurst is the Conservative MP for Rochester and Strood,

:38:39. > :38:41.and Stephen Lloyd is trying to win back his old seat of

:38:42. > :38:45.We're also joined by Paul Richards, the Labour activist,

:38:46. > :38:56.Are you tempted to stand as well? Not this time.

:38:57. > :39:00.So, seven weeks of intense campaigning lie ahead

:39:01. > :39:01.for my guests and for you, the voters.

:39:02. > :39:04.The announcement of the general election took many by surprise,

:39:05. > :39:08.In many of the 29 constituencies here it's a tricky task for them

:39:09. > :39:10.to select candidates to stand at such short notice.

:39:11. > :39:12.So what are their respective prospects and which are

:39:13. > :39:21.The parliamentary political map of this region is distinctly Tory,

:39:22. > :39:27.with all but two of our 29 MPs being Conservative.

:39:28. > :39:34.All but four areas voted to leave the EU in the referendum last June.

:39:35. > :39:38.So there is a snap general election just over six weeks away.

:39:39. > :39:41.Where will the crucial political battles be here in the South-East?

:39:42. > :39:43.With Brexit providing a very different context for campaigning,

:39:44. > :39:51.what will that mean for the main political parties in this region?

:39:52. > :39:54.Lewes in Sussex is one of those four districts that voted

:39:55. > :39:55.to remain in the EU, while the Conservative

:39:56. > :40:01.MP who represents the constituency voted to leave.

:40:02. > :40:03.Maria Caulfield doesn't think that will be a major factor

:40:04. > :40:06.when the constituents go to the polls this June.

:40:07. > :40:10.I had one vote in that referendum, my vote was no more or no less

:40:11. > :40:15.Most remain voters say to me, look, the country voted,

:40:16. > :40:18.I am not necessarily happy with that vote, but let's make the best of it

:40:19. > :40:21.and get the best possible deal for the country.

:40:22. > :40:24.I don't think this is a Brexit election, it is more than that,

:40:25. > :40:26.it is about who's best to lead this country.

:40:27. > :40:29.In 2015, the Liberal Democrats lost the seats of Lewes and Eastbourne.

:40:30. > :40:32.They plan on winning them back and hope to make gains in areas

:40:33. > :40:36.where there was strong support for remaining in the EU.

:40:37. > :40:38.The parties selected candidates in constituencies

:40:39. > :40:45.Including in Maidstone, another one of its target seats.

:40:46. > :40:48.Different to 2015 is that we stand against a hard Brexit.

:40:49. > :40:51.We need to make sure that Theresa May does not take us out

:40:52. > :40:53.of the single market, because it risks jobs and it risks

:40:54. > :40:58.We will be coming off the back of county council

:40:59. > :41:01.elections and we are looking at some gains there.

:41:02. > :41:04.We can really stand for the local people.

:41:05. > :41:07.Brighton and Hove, another staunchly remain area,

:41:08. > :41:12.The region's only two opposition MPs, one Green and one Labour,

:41:13. > :41:18.While the Conservative MP for here in Brighton Kempton has

:41:19. > :41:23.the smallest majority in the South East of just 690 votes.

:41:24. > :41:26.Labour will fight hard to win back that seat

:41:27. > :41:30.and hold Hove and Portslade, another marginal constituency,

:41:31. > :41:34.which Peter Kyle gained from the Tories two years ago.

:41:35. > :41:36.This week the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, vowed to overturn

:41:37. > :41:39.the rigged system and looks set to run an anti-establishment

:41:40. > :41:46.Will that message help the party win in this region?

:41:47. > :41:49.I have not hidden the fact in the past that I would prefer us

:41:50. > :41:52.to be going into this general election with a different leader,

:41:53. > :41:55.but this election is not going to be about one thing.

:41:56. > :41:58.It is not going to be about Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn,

:41:59. > :42:01.or about Brexit or any other one single issue.

:42:02. > :42:04.It is going to be a very complex election.

:42:05. > :42:07.I believe it is going to be a maverick election,

:42:08. > :42:09.where you are going to see very surprising results up

:42:10. > :42:14.This weekend there was a rally in the city by campaigners in favour

:42:15. > :42:17.of a so-called progressive alliance between the Greens,

:42:18. > :42:22.The MP for Brighton Pavilion is leading the call for an electoral

:42:23. > :42:26.pact in key seats where splitting the vote could allow

:42:27. > :42:33.We're not talking about a single electoral pact, what we're talking

:42:34. > :42:38.about is the possibility for collaboration and cooperation

:42:39. > :42:41.at a local level in just probably a handful of constituencies.

:42:42. > :42:44.The purpose of doing that is to make sure

:42:45. > :42:46.that the anti-Tory vote is not split.

:42:47. > :42:50.It is going to be down to local parties, it is nothing

:42:51. > :42:53.that is being imposed from the top, but certainly discussions

:42:54. > :42:55.are happening from Brighton to Bognor and right up

:42:56. > :43:01.So can the other parties make any waves in this sea of Conservative

:43:02. > :43:06.Or will the Prime Minister ride the electoral storm and come out

:43:07. > :43:15.stronger to steer a clear course for Brexit?

:43:16. > :43:24.We can talk about Brexit first. Kelly, nearly half the Conservative

:43:25. > :43:30.MPs in the south-east voted to remain. But in many seats the voters

:43:31. > :43:38.overwhelmingly wanted to leave. Are you just hoping they will forgive

:43:39. > :43:45.and forget? And voted to trigger Article 50 in the House of Commons

:43:46. > :43:49.and everything I have said since the referendum and as my constituents

:43:50. > :43:54.were very clear they wanted to leave Europe I have supported that. I took

:43:55. > :44:00.a pragmatic decision about how I use my individual vote, but we are

:44:01. > :44:03.leaving Europe and I am supportive of Brexit and backing the Prime

:44:04. > :44:08.Minister to get her re-elected so she can go back and do this

:44:09. > :44:13.negotiation. Do you not think that could play well for Ukip who held

:44:14. > :44:20.the seat before you won it? People who voted Ukip and wanted Brexit,

:44:21. > :44:23.the right choice for them is to vote Conservative because Theresa May, a

:44:24. > :44:29.strong and credible leader, that will give her the ability to go into

:44:30. > :44:34.Europe and make that negotiation. If people voted Ukip to leave Europe,

:44:35. > :44:38.the only sensible choice is conservative. The Lib Dems are

:44:39. > :44:44.hoping to make a comeback under the remain banner. What is your message

:44:45. > :44:53.to people in Maidstone who voted to leave the EU? I wanted to remain. I

:44:54. > :44:57.debated in Eastbourne and I felt quite strongly and feel quite

:44:58. > :45:02.strongly that economically it would be better for our nation. I'll still

:45:03. > :45:06.give my word during the referendum that I would respect the result and

:45:07. > :45:13.that is what I am going to do. I told them, I promised the people of

:45:14. > :45:20.Eastbourne that I would respect the results of the referendum. If I make

:45:21. > :45:27.a promise, I keep it. I will stick to that as I said I would. That

:45:28. > :45:31.means I will not be voting for a second referendum or opposing

:45:32. > :45:34.Brexit. If I am elected I will be lobbying the Government to make sure

:45:35. > :45:42.that we get the best deal possible for Brexit. But I will not break my

:45:43. > :45:50.word to the people of the sport. Presumably Labour hoping to win

:45:51. > :45:54.seats, marginal areas that voted to remain, but Jeremy Corbyn has ruled

:45:55. > :46:00.out a second referendum and this morning he was saying that his party

:46:01. > :46:03.was divided on Europe. If you voted to remain in Brighton surely you

:46:04. > :46:10.would be tempted to vote for the Lib Dems. I think progressive alliances

:46:11. > :46:15.are just excuses not to vote Labour and they are normally put forward by

:46:16. > :46:20.smaller parties. If you are Labour vote you should vote for Labour

:46:21. > :46:24.candidates in the elections. It is not going to be just about Brexit,

:46:25. > :46:32.it will be about other issues as well. We can talk about progressive

:46:33. > :46:37.alliances. For you, I deal with the Green Party must be tempting? It

:46:38. > :46:45.would get you over the line in seats like Maidstone. At the last election

:46:46. > :46:52.Labour got over 7% and the Green Party got 2%. A few people have

:46:53. > :46:59.contacted me about a progressive alliance, but you know there is only

:47:00. > :47:05.one person who could beat the Tory MP in this constituency and it is

:47:06. > :47:10.me. If we want to take a seat of the Tories, I will respect their vote. I

:47:11. > :47:16.know they will be loaning it to me, but they vote for me or the Tory

:47:17. > :47:25.whirlwind. So not a formal alliance but unofficial deals? People are

:47:26. > :47:29.engaged with the selection. I was talking to Kelly earlier about

:47:30. > :47:32.people being fed up for another election. In Eastbourne people have

:47:33. > :47:39.been very kind. Last night people were saying to me they were dilated

:47:40. > :47:44.I was standing. Everyone tells us this during a general election.

:47:45. > :47:53.People have contacted me because they are engaged. I am saying to

:47:54. > :47:59.them, and I mean this, I am the only one who can beat the Tory MP in

:48:00. > :48:05.Eastbourne. Lend me your vote and I will respect it. It is the only way

:48:06. > :48:11.it will happen. In your seat it could be your worst nightmare, you

:48:12. > :48:16.could lose seats to the opposition? This is a choice about who we want

:48:17. > :48:19.to be the leader and to be in Europe negotiating to make sure we get the

:48:20. > :48:28.right deal in Europe for the British people and my constituency. Many

:48:29. > :48:32.people voted out and may feel other parties will do it better. I believe

:48:33. > :48:40.the Conservatives have the only credible plan to move that forward.

:48:41. > :48:45.I take Stephen 's personal point of view, but his widow wants to

:48:46. > :48:52.destruct the Brexit process. Post leader wants Brexit to feel, which

:48:53. > :48:59.is not in the national interest. Who is the biggest threat to your party,

:49:00. > :49:04.Labour or Ukip? As with all elections, who knows? It is the job

:49:05. > :49:11.of the electorate to decide and have their say. I think, myself included,

:49:12. > :49:18.I will not be taking anything for granted. We can talk about Labour.

:49:19. > :49:25.It will be interesting in Brighton and all. He does not have a very

:49:26. > :49:30.large majority. He has come into conflict with members of his local

:49:31. > :49:41.party who are Jeremy Corbyn fans. How do you think that will play out?

:49:42. > :49:48.Peter Kyle has spent two years as an excellent MP and working with many

:49:49. > :49:55.people, other than the discontent is causing trouble in the party. What

:49:56. > :49:59.are the implications for him? If you have an embedded MP who's got into

:50:00. > :50:05.every organisation and has good support, he can transcend the Labour

:50:06. > :50:11.Party and the appalling and do better than the polling suggests.

:50:12. > :50:17.One of the upsets of the night will be Peter Kyle winning. It would be a

:50:18. > :50:24.huge coup for Jeremy Corbyn to get an MP into that marginal seat, a

:50:25. > :50:29.majority of only 694 the Conservatives. We do not know who

:50:30. > :50:33.will be selected for that seat. The Labour candidate stands a chance

:50:34. > :50:38.that it will be very difficult. What about Jeremy Corbyn's message so

:50:39. > :50:45.but his antiestablishment message. but his antiestablishment message.

:50:46. > :50:52.Today Theresa May parked her tanks on his lawn by talking about a cap

:50:53. > :50:58.on energy bills. How will that play out in the south-east? It is a

:50:59. > :51:02.massive political experiments. Can you run an election from the left

:51:03. > :51:11.and win over the kind of photos to voted Labour in the 1890s? We will

:51:12. > :51:15.find out in seven weeks. -- in the 1990s. The victory will be entirely

:51:16. > :51:17.down to Jeremy Corbyn. Let's move on to discuss Ukip's

:51:18. > :51:20.fortunes in the South East. There was much speculation

:51:21. > :51:22.about whether Nigel Farage, the MEP and former party leader,

:51:23. > :51:25.would stand again in South Thanet - the seat he narrowly lost

:51:26. > :51:28.to the Conservatives two years ago. On Thursday, he announced

:51:29. > :51:30.he wouldn't try for the eighth time to become an MP,

:51:31. > :51:32.in Kent or anywhere else. It was one of the biggest stories

:51:33. > :51:43.of the 2015 general election. Nigel Farage missed out by less

:51:44. > :51:46.than 3,000 votes in his attempt The campaign was hard fought

:51:47. > :51:51.by both the Tories and Ukip in the Kent coastal seat,

:51:52. > :51:53.home to the country's Speaking on BBC South East Today,

:51:54. > :51:59.Mr Farage has explained his decision What would I do as a backbench MP

:52:00. > :52:09.compared to the role that I have leading a group in the European

:52:10. > :52:13.Parliament? Remember this, two years

:52:14. > :52:16.of Brexit negotiations, the UK Parliament has nothing to do

:52:17. > :52:19.with the process, the European Parliament has

:52:20. > :52:20.everything to do with it, I feel I can use my platform

:52:21. > :52:31.there far more effectively. What will Nigel Farage's decision

:52:32. > :52:33.mean for Ukip's political prospects? Farage made a difference

:52:34. > :52:35.in South Thanet last time and certainly his name recognition

:52:36. > :52:38.allowed Ukip to run the Tories I think it will be a much more

:52:39. > :52:46.difficult seat for Ukip this time around, and I think

:52:47. > :52:48.the Conservatives On the streets of Ramsgate

:52:49. > :52:52.there was little surprise I don't think he wants to have

:52:53. > :53:02.another disappointment and he might as well stay in Brussels

:53:03. > :53:05.where I think he can do better good. He is nothing now anyway,

:53:06. > :53:07.as far as it goes. He wanted Brexit, we voted

:53:08. > :53:10.for it, that's it. This is a democracy,

:53:11. > :53:12.the people have made their choice, As far as Nigel is concerned,

:53:13. > :53:22.he is going to sit like we are The former Ukip leader

:53:23. > :53:26.says he will continue to support his fellow colleagues,

:53:27. > :53:29.but, without Nigel Farage as a candidate at the election,

:53:30. > :53:32.will Ukip lose its appeal for some Joining us now is Harriet Yeo,

:53:33. > :53:38.who was a Ukip candidate in Folkestone and

:53:39. > :53:41.Hythe two years ago. So without Nigel Farage,

:53:42. > :53:59.how are you going to With Paul Nuttall. Is he is going to

:54:00. > :54:03.stand? I'm talking about as a leader, Paul Nuttall has some

:54:04. > :54:07.fantastic ideas for the party. I think with home we stand a good

:54:08. > :54:13.chance of picking up some seats. Would you like him to stand in South

:54:14. > :54:18.Thanet? I would like him to stand where he feels most comfortable. He

:54:19. > :54:23.Southerner but then I go up north Southerner but then I go up north

:54:24. > :54:29.that is different. He has to be where he feels comfortable. Would

:54:30. > :54:33.you like to stand in South Thanet? I know there are some local candidates

:54:34. > :54:40.already there. Last time I said I was doing nothing but I finished

:54:41. > :54:46.doing something, so who knows. Paul Nuttall indicated this morning that

:54:47. > :54:50.you should not field candidates in seats with a strong Brexit

:54:51. > :54:56.conservative. The MP for South Thanet used to belong to your party.

:54:57. > :55:03.Why would you stand against him? I think there are some other issues

:55:04. > :55:07.there, that is an exceptional case. We need Ukip MPs to hold the

:55:08. > :55:14.Conservatives to account, to make sure that Brexit is delivered. Nigel

:55:15. > :55:20.Farage doesn't think that is essential now. He would rather work

:55:21. > :55:25.in Brussels. He is finishing off the job he started. He has so much

:55:26. > :55:30.energy and he wants to see this finished and the right deal and

:55:31. > :55:39.being in the European Parliament to make sure that that right deal is

:55:40. > :55:48.got. You have lost Nigel Farage as a candidate. Douglas Carswell and Mark

:55:49. > :55:52.reckless, they are both gone. As Douglas Carswell said yesterday, is

:55:53. > :55:59.the job done now for Ukip in British politics? We have come to the end of

:56:00. > :56:02.the beginning and now we are at the beginning of the next phase, which

:56:03. > :56:10.is making sure we have the right policies in place to ensure a good,

:56:11. > :56:13.strong and prosperous Brexit for the United Kingdom. Do you have enough

:56:14. > :56:19.time to come up with other policies in the next six weeks? I know people

:56:20. > :56:24.are working on that and they will be good and strong to benefit Britain.

:56:25. > :56:33.Does this mean you are more likely to hold South Thanet. The sitting MP

:56:34. > :56:36.is being investigated for his expenditure in the last election and

:56:37. > :56:44.doorstep. As I said earlier, I think doorstep. As I said earlier, I think

:56:45. > :56:50.we are coming out of Europe and we need to have a strong leader doing

:56:51. > :56:57.that negotiation. For the people of South Thanet their only option, in

:56:58. > :57:03.my view, is to vote Conservative. Without Nigel Farage does that mean

:57:04. > :57:11.you are home and dry? It was a slimmer wind. You can never tell. On

:57:12. > :57:15.the doorstep of people who would normally vote Ukip want to have that

:57:16. > :57:29.strong Brexit and make sure we get the best deal then my view is to

:57:30. > :57:35.answer for the Conservatives. The MP says he did nothing wrong when it

:57:36. > :57:40.comes to the election expenditure. Could Labour went back seat that

:57:41. > :57:51.they held under Tony Blair? It is not impossible. There is a stench of

:57:52. > :57:58.corruption hanging over that candidate. You do not know what is

:57:59. > :58:07.going to happen. A lot of those seats were Labour not very long ago.

:58:08. > :58:18.There are new voters coming through as well. Labour do not have any

:58:19. > :58:24.candidates elected. This is a crisis. It is not a crisis because

:58:25. > :58:30.there are plenty of people willing to step up. There are always plenty

:58:31. > :58:36.of people who want to serve their community in that way. People always

:58:37. > :58:43.want to be candidates, so there will be good candidates in place. If you

:58:44. > :58:47.stood in 2015 and you probably second mortgage to your home and

:58:48. > :58:53.have just paid your debts off now. I can understand why people do not

:58:54. > :59:02.want to do it. At to start from scratch with six or seven weeks ago,

:59:03. > :59:08.tell you it is just a legal tell you it is just a legal

:59:09. > :59:13.necessity to have a candidate. Not very reassuring for the people

:59:14. > :59:17.sitting next to you. They Conservative Party have been caught

:59:18. > :59:25.out by their own leader. I know you have not been officially selected

:59:26. > :59:32.yet, but in Hove it is your 13th target seat in the British Isles and

:59:33. > :59:39.yet there is no candidate yet. We are selecting candidates and talking

:59:40. > :59:44.to people all the time. But you were not ready for your leader to call an

:59:45. > :59:51.election. If you understand why that election is being called and I am up

:59:52. > :59:56.for it now looking forward to getting out there again. This will

:59:57. > :00:02.be my third election in two and a half years so would be nice to have

:00:03. > :00:06.some time without an election, but we should talk about the issues. I

:00:07. > :00:19.want to tell my constituents about what we want to do. How much do you

:00:20. > :00:22.think Brexit will play a part. I think it is important. One of the

:00:23. > :00:30.reasons this has been called is because we need a strong hand in

:00:31. > :00:34.Europe. Brexit is important but I think there are key issues around

:00:35. > :00:41.the economy. In Eastbourne it is between me and the Tory. Brexit is

:00:42. > :00:43.the big issue. Thank you very much. It will be an interesting couple of

:00:44. > :00:44.weeks. That's all we've got time

:00:45. > :00:47.for from the South East this week. My thanks to our guests for today -

:00:48. > :00:50.Harriet Yeo, Stephen Lloyd, We will be back next week

:00:51. > :00:54.with all the election news Enjoyed the next six or seven weeks

:00:55. > :01:09.of campaigning. on issues like the NHS. Run out of

:01:10. > :01:17.time. Andrew, back to you. Now, Ukip have made their first

:01:18. > :01:24.significant policy announcement of the election campaign today

:01:25. > :01:29.with a call for a ban on wearing But is it a policy that will meet

:01:30. > :01:35.with the approval of the man who bankrolled the party's last

:01:36. > :01:43.general election campaign? Hello, Andrew. Let me see if I can

:01:44. > :01:48.clarify some things, are you a member of Ukip? I a patron of Ukip

:01:49. > :01:53.so I don't stop being a member. So you are still a member? I am,

:01:54. > :02:00.apparently for life. Are you still hoping to bankroll Ukip? Not at the

:02:01. > :02:04.moment. Why is that? The internal problems we have had in Ukip have

:02:05. > :02:09.been aired, and a lot needs to happen in the party in terms of

:02:10. > :02:13.professionalising it and I think it is ill-prepared for this general

:02:14. > :02:22.election. Are you going to run in Clacton? I will be if selected. For

:02:23. > :02:26.Ukip? Yes. Have you been to Clacton? I've been with Nigel Mansell on the

:02:27. > :02:29.campaign. You will run for a constituency you've only been in

:02:30. > :02:35.once? Yes, why does that surprise you? You know nothing about it. I've

:02:36. > :02:40.just recently decided to become the candidate there. Did you know where

:02:41. > :02:43.it is? Of course I do, your piece the other night was completely

:02:44. > :02:48.wrong. I said I knew where it was but I didn't know much about it.

:02:49. > :02:57.Maybe the people of Clacton will regard you as a carpetbagger? Why?

:02:58. > :03:01.Because you have never been there. Most politicians are carpetbaggers

:03:02. > :03:06.and I will be there for the right reasons. I thought it was because of

:03:07. > :03:10.your visceral hatred of Douglas Carswell. He only lasted 24 hours

:03:11. > :03:13.after I announced my candidacy so we will see what happens. The main

:03:14. > :03:17.thing I am going to Clacton on Monday to meet the Ukip councillors,

:03:18. > :03:21.see what the issues are and see if they want me as a candidate. They

:03:22. > :03:27.may not want me. Who do you think you will be up against? The

:03:28. > :03:32.potential Conservative candidate. Who in Ukip? I don't suppose anyone

:03:33. > :03:40.in Ukip will stand against me, I wouldn't have thought. Really? I

:03:41. > :03:45.would have thought. Money talks! Why do you say that? You talked about

:03:46. > :03:48.having a pirate radio station to blast into Clacton so it is not

:03:49. > :03:52.covered by the election rules. You've been talking about financing

:03:53. > :03:58.a sort of right-wing Momentum movement. I just wonder, has

:03:59. > :04:01.politics now just become a Richmond's hobby? From my

:04:02. > :04:05.perspective the reason I'm interested in it is if you have

:04:06. > :04:06.looked at what has happened in the country, it's clear the

:04:07. > :04:15.Conservatives will have a massive majority. -- has politics become a

:04:16. > :04:21.rich man's hobby. Only putting up candidates not against Brexit MPs.

:04:22. > :04:24.Is Ukip over? I don't think so. The electoral maths is interesting

:04:25. > :04:34.because first-past-the-post effectively could help Ukip in this

:04:35. > :04:38.example. Ukip got one MP with 4 million votes. What we are seeing is

:04:39. > :04:41.the total collapse of Labour. In that situation there are certain

:04:42. > :04:44.seats up north in Hartlepool and other seats like that, the total

:04:45. > :04:50.collapse of the Labour Party could help Ukip to win a few seats. Is

:04:51. > :04:54.Ukip over? It looks that way, yes. They haven't made much of a dent in

:04:55. > :04:57.Labour's vote in the north, they don't really have a defining issue

:04:58. > :05:02.anymore and all the polls we have seen published since the election

:05:03. > :05:07.was called show Ukip vote is going to the Conservatives. Is Ukip over?

:05:08. > :05:11.It always happens when the Conservative Party goes far to the

:05:12. > :05:16.right, really hard Brexit, there is no space for BMP, Ukip and all of

:05:17. > :05:21.that. Are you associating the BNP with Ukip? Or that, movements to the

:05:22. > :05:26.right of the Conservatives get eaten up one the Conservatives move as far

:05:27. > :05:31.right as Theresa May has done. I think what your enterprise shows is

:05:32. > :05:34.how it's really time to reform funding of political parties. It is

:05:35. > :05:39.disgraceful that very rich people can move in and bankroll the Brexit

:05:40. > :05:46.campaigned to the extent that they did. We need proper state funding of

:05:47. > :05:54.parties. The union is bankrolling Labour. I assume the reform would

:05:55. > :05:57.include trade unions? Indeed. Ukip has lost its talisman in Nigel

:05:58. > :06:02.Farage, it was a one-man party, I have to say, people like Tim. Having

:06:03. > :06:06.voted for Brexit its reason to be has gone. It will still take votes

:06:07. > :06:10.from Labour and the Conservatives but probably only from the don't

:06:11. > :06:14.knows. There are seats in certain places where if enough Tories back

:06:15. > :06:20.Ukip dated when. Hartlepool is an example. Were the Tories will never

:06:21. > :06:23.win. The demise of Ukip has been forecasted many times before but I

:06:24. > :06:27.don't see a Tory candidate winning in a place like Hartlepool. So we

:06:28. > :06:32.could see, and I think we will see, the total collapse of the Labour

:06:33. > :06:35.vote. We shall see. The leader of the party of which you say you are

:06:36. > :06:41.still a patron, Paul Nuttall, said he would ban the Burcea and the

:06:42. > :06:48.niqab in public, what is your view? -- the niqab and the Burcea? I'm not

:06:49. > :06:52.in agreement with that. If it is a security issue at airports or public

:06:53. > :06:56.transport it could be acceptable but I'm not in favour of curtailing

:06:57. > :07:01.people's writes. You have gone further than him, haven't you? You

:07:02. > :07:04.tweeted you wanted to ban Muslim immigration. In my view the problem

:07:05. > :07:07.we have had with the lack of integration in certain communities

:07:08. > :07:12.has come about through mass open-door immigration. If you are a

:07:13. > :07:18.must win you wouldn't be allowed in? What I said in the tweet was I think

:07:19. > :07:24.they should be a ban on immigration... You said Muslim

:07:25. > :07:26.immigration. That's what I believe. If you are a world famous doctor

:07:27. > :07:30.coming to help one of our big teaching hospitals in this country

:07:31. > :07:33.because you are a Muslim you could not get in? We have to start

:07:34. > :07:36.somewhere, there are huge problems in areas where 20% of the population

:07:37. > :07:42.don't speak the language, they haven't integrated. You should read

:07:43. > :07:47.the rest of the tweet, it is control of immigration from a 10-year ban on

:07:48. > :07:51.unskilled immigration. The first thing you said was to ban Muslim

:07:52. > :07:55.immigration, it is in black and white. I have said that, I do not

:07:56. > :07:59.dispute that. I was questioning that. There is my answer, you cannot

:08:00. > :08:03.tell somebody's will adjust freedoms but what you can do is stop adding

:08:04. > :08:08.to the problem. Doesn't that sound a bit like the BNP? It's as like BNP

:08:09. > :08:12.and like Trump. Its, we hate Muslims, fine, if that is what you

:08:13. > :08:17.are standing for, that is clear. The final word is we have had open-door

:08:18. > :08:20.mass immigration from the Conservative Party, we've had it

:08:21. > :08:24.from the Labour Party and its fine if you are in north London to say

:08:25. > :08:27.these things, if you live in Oldham and your community has been

:08:28. > :08:30.radically changed and you have a whole population not integrating in,

:08:31. > :08:34.not speaking the language, something has got to be done. We had better

:08:35. > :08:37.leave it there. Thank you for coming in. I am en route to Clacton. We

:08:38. > :08:39.will see how you get on there. Now, Lib Dem leader Tim Farron

:08:40. > :08:42.was on TV earlier today and he was asked again

:08:43. > :08:45.about an issue that he's been asked about repeatedly -

:08:46. > :08:47.his attitude to homosexuality. when they asked you whether gay sex

:08:48. > :08:57.was a sin. Come on, Robert, I've been

:08:58. > :08:59.asked this question loads few days and I have been clear,

:09:00. > :09:03.even in the House of Commons, It's possible I'm not the only

:09:04. > :09:13.person getting tired Probably, but then why don't

:09:14. > :09:26.you just close it down? Toby Young, why does he get into

:09:27. > :09:31.such a mess over this? I mean, he is leader of the Liberal Democrats. Its

:09:32. > :09:34.2017. I guess the reason he keeps refusing to answer that question is

:09:35. > :09:41.because what the implication is that he does think that homosexual acts

:09:42. > :09:45.are sinful, and he cannot bring himself not to say that, or to say

:09:46. > :09:48.what Robert Peston and others want him to say because he is an

:09:49. > :09:53.evangelical Christian who converted at the age of 20, 21, and clearly he

:09:54. > :09:57.really struggles with this issue and I think it will be really difficult

:09:58. > :10:01.for the Lib Dems to promote, or even Lib Dem candidates like Vince Cable,

:10:02. > :10:04.to promote the idea of the Progressive Alliance even though Tim

:10:05. > :10:13.has ruled it out, if he is not prepared to say I don't think

:10:14. > :10:16.homosexual acts are sinful. What is your view? It is disastrous if that

:10:17. > :10:19.is what he really thinks but Preston did not push the hard. I'm not sure

:10:20. > :10:21.he understood the difference about the question between gay sex and

:10:22. > :10:25.being gay. I think he just thought he was going on saying I'm not

:10:26. > :10:29.anti-gay. He needs to command immediately and clarify it. If you

:10:30. > :10:33.are right and he does actually think it is a sin he is in real trouble.

:10:34. > :10:38.There is a slight parallel with what police said before about Jeremy

:10:39. > :10:42.Corbyn, how his unilateral nuclear policy would appeal to the hard core

:10:43. > :10:47.of the left. The problem for Tim Farron with what he is saying here,

:10:48. > :10:55.while he is an evangelical Christian, this will not appeal to

:10:56. > :10:58.traditional Liberal Democrats. An LGBT community member cannot

:10:59. > :11:02.possibly vote for an MP who believes that a sexual act between

:11:03. > :11:06.homosexuals is sinful. He has not made that clear. Of course, he wants

:11:07. > :11:10.to stop Brexit as well so he is neither liberal nor democratic. He

:11:11. > :11:14.will have seven weeks to make it clear because I am sure he will be

:11:15. > :11:18.asked again. We have the chairman of the Conservative Party on earlier,

:11:19. > :11:22.Polly. An important figure for the Tory campaign. What did you make of

:11:23. > :11:27.what he said? I don't think he will have him on very often, he didn't do

:11:28. > :11:30.brilliantly. I think they will bring back chemical Ali, Michael Fallon,

:11:31. > :11:37.he can say anything with a straight face, he can say black is white.

:11:38. > :11:42.Michael Fallon, chemical Ali? Why do you say that? He can absolutely say

:11:43. > :11:48.black is white. For instance if you look back at what he said, you

:11:49. > :11:53.challenged him about the energy policy, when Ed Miliband came out

:11:54. > :11:58.with it, he said any kind of freeze would stop investment, the lights

:11:59. > :12:03.will go out. You have him on, he will say the exact opposite. He is

:12:04. > :12:07.magic at that. But I don't think your guy today was up to the job. If

:12:08. > :12:16.Michael Fallon was chemical Ali, or we should say chemical Fally,

:12:17. > :12:21.Patrick was more like comical Ali. The whole Iraq war is rushing back

:12:22. > :12:24.at me. He is the warm up comedian, there is another six weeks to go,

:12:25. > :12:29.just getting things started. What did you think? I don't think he was

:12:30. > :12:33.too bad, it was difficult for him to say exactly what was in the 2050

:12:34. > :12:37.manifesto is going to be replicated in the Conservatives' manifesto

:12:38. > :12:40.during this general election, he doesn't want to be seen rowing back

:12:41. > :12:44.on stuff but on the other hand I don't think he can conceal the fact

:12:45. > :12:48.they will be far fewer commitments in this Conservative manifesto than

:12:49. > :12:51.in the last one, as you and I know, it was full of rash promises last

:12:52. > :12:59.time because they thought they would have to trade a lot of them away in

:13:00. > :13:02.the negotiations with the Liberal Democrats to form a second coalition

:13:03. > :13:04.so they are saddled with policies they don't particularly want to be

:13:05. > :13:06.hemmed in by. The forthcoming Conservative manifesto will be much

:13:07. > :13:10.lighter and shorter with fewer commitments. Different? Some stuff

:13:11. > :13:13.jumped from the 2050 manifesto? I think so but we will see a

:13:14. > :13:16.commitment to run schools to overcome that hurdle in the next

:13:17. > :13:20.parliament and I don't think, in spite of what you think, Polly, that

:13:21. > :13:23.it will be a hard tack to the right. I think if anything the mood music

:13:24. > :13:29.of the Conservative manifesto will be a centrist inclusive one. The

:13:30. > :13:33.mood music will be because the specifics would be there. She is

:13:34. > :13:36.good at saying governing for everybody and the many and not the

:13:37. > :13:41.few but when you look at the hard facts of what her and Hammond's

:13:42. > :13:44.budget looks like, you look at her hard Brexit, it's a very different

:13:45. > :13:52.story. Or that, the music has stopped for this week! Thank you. I

:13:53. > :13:58.will be back next week at the normal time of 11am on Sunday morning. On

:13:59. > :14:03.BBC One The Daily Politics is back at midday tomorrow and we will be on

:14:04. > :14:05.every day next week on BBC Two. Remember, if it's Sunday, it is The

:14:06. > :14:34.Sunday Politics. There'll be a couple of hours of

:14:35. > :14:37.just fantastic music, really, all the Ella classics, as well as

:14:38. > :14:40.some very special guests, we have Mica Paris, Imelda May,

:14:41. > :14:46.Dame Cleo Laine 'There's a side to Rory that the

:14:47. > :14:49.public doesn't see.