:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:43.The local election results made grim reading for Labour.
:00:44. > :00:48.With just a month to go until the general election,
:00:49. > :00:51.will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help
:00:52. > :00:57.The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,
:00:58. > :00:59.as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got
:01:00. > :01:07.But is there still really all to play for?
:01:08. > :01:11.And tonight we will find out who is the next
:01:12. > :01:14.President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -
:01:15. > :01:19.And in the South East: ended with a hack attack
:01:20. > :01:22.Wipe-out for Ukip at the ballot box as the party loses
:01:23. > :01:24.all its county councillors - so is there any future
:01:25. > :01:31.potential impact in marginals next month. If Ukip support continues to
:01:32. > :01:38.evaporate... And joining me for all of that,
:01:39. > :01:41.three journalists ready to analyse the week's politics
:01:42. > :01:44.with all the forensic focus of Diane Abbott
:01:45. > :01:48.preparing for an interview, and all the relaxed,
:01:49. > :01:50.slogan-free banter of Theresa May It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:51. > :01:56.and Steve Richards. So, the Conservatives are promising,
:01:57. > :02:03.if re-elected, to change mental health laws in England and Wales
:02:04. > :02:06.to tackle discrimination, and they're promising 10,000 more
:02:07. > :02:12.staff working in NHS mental health treatment in England by 2020 -
:02:13. > :02:14.although how that's to be Here's Health Secretary
:02:15. > :02:17.Jeremy Hunt speaking There is a lot of new
:02:18. > :02:24.money going into it. In January, we said we were going
:02:25. > :02:28.to put an extra ?1 billion Does this come from other parts
:02:29. > :02:31.of the NHS, or is it No, it is new money
:02:32. > :02:35.going into the NHS It's not just of course money,
:02:36. > :02:42.it's having the people who deliver these jobs,
:02:43. > :02:44.which is why we need Well, we're joined now from Norwich
:02:45. > :02:49.by the Liberal Democrat health This weekend, they've launched
:02:50. > :02:52.their own health announcement, promising a 1% rise on every income
:02:53. > :03:04.tax band to fund the NHS. Do you welcome the Conservatives
:03:05. > :03:09.putting mental health onto the campaign agenda in the way that they
:03:10. > :03:14.have? I welcome it being on the campaign agenda but I do fear that
:03:15. > :03:19.the announcement is built on thin air. You raised the issue at the
:03:20. > :03:22.start about the 10,000 extra staff, and questions surrounding how it
:03:23. > :03:27.would be paid for. There is no additional money on what they have
:03:28. > :03:34.already announced for the NHS. We know it falls massively short on the
:03:35. > :03:38.expectation of the funding gap which, by 2020, is likely to be
:03:39. > :03:42.about 30 billion. That is not disputed now. Anyone outside of the
:03:43. > :03:46.government, wherever you are on the political spectrum, knows the money
:03:47. > :03:55.going in is simply not enough. So, rather like the claim that they
:03:56. > :04:00.would add 5000 GPs to the workforce by 2020, that is not on target.
:04:01. > :04:05.Latest figures show a fall in the number of GPs. They make these
:04:06. > :04:09.claims, but I'm afraid they are without substance, unless they are
:04:10. > :04:14.prepared to put money behind it. Your party's solution to the money
:04:15. > :04:25.problem is to put a 1% percentage point on all of the bands of income
:04:26. > :04:33.tax to raise more money 20-45. Is that unfair? Most pensioners who
:04:34. > :04:37.consume 40% of NHS spending, but over 65s only pay about 20% of
:04:38. > :04:42.income tax. Are you penalising the younger generations for the health
:04:43. > :04:46.care of an older generation? It is the first step in what we are
:04:47. > :04:51.describing as a 5-point recovery plan for the NHS and care system.
:04:52. > :04:57.So, for what is available to us now, it seems to be the fairest way of
:04:58. > :05:01.bringing in extra resources, income tax is progressive, and is based on
:05:02. > :05:06.your ability to pay for your average British worker. It would be ?3 per
:05:07. > :05:11.week which is the cost of less than two cups of coffee per week. In the
:05:12. > :05:15.longer run, we say that by the end of the next Parliament, we would be
:05:16. > :05:22.able to introduce a dedicated NHS and care tax. Based, probably,
:05:23. > :05:28.around a reformed national insurance system, so it becomes a dedicated
:05:29. > :05:31.NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the former permanent secretary of the
:05:32. > :05:37.Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said clearly that this idea merits
:05:38. > :05:43.further consideration which is the first time anyone for the Treasury
:05:44. > :05:47.has bought into the idea of this. Let me ask you this. You say it is a
:05:48. > :05:51.small amount of tax that people on average incomes will have to pay
:05:52. > :05:57.extra. We are talking about people who have seen no real increases to
:05:58. > :06:02.their income since 2007. They have been struggling to stand still in
:06:03. > :06:06.terms of their own pay, but you are going to add to their tax, and as I
:06:07. > :06:11.said earlier, most of the health care money will then go to
:06:12. > :06:16.pensioners whose incomes have risen by 15%. I'm interested in the
:06:17. > :06:22.fairness of this redistribution? Bearing in mind first of all,
:06:23. > :06:28.Andrew, that the raising of the tax threshold that the Liberal Democrats
:06:29. > :06:32.pushed through in the coalition increased the effective pay in your
:06:33. > :06:38.pocket for basic rate taxpayers by about ?1000. We are talking about a
:06:39. > :06:41.tiny fraction of that. I suppose that you do have to ask, all of us
:06:42. > :06:46.in this country need to ask ourselves this question... Are we
:06:47. > :06:51.prepared to pay, in terms of the average worker, about ?3 extra per
:06:52. > :06:56.week to give us a guarantee that when our loved ones need that care,
:06:57. > :07:01.in their hour of need, perhaps suspected cancer, that care will be
:07:02. > :07:07.available for them? I have heard two cases recently brought my attention.
:07:08. > :07:10.An elderly couple, the wife has a very bad hip. They could not allow
:07:11. > :07:15.the weight to continue. She was told that she would need to wait 26
:07:16. > :07:19.weeks, she was in acute pain. They then deduct paying ?20,000 for
:07:20. > :07:24.private treatment to circumvent waiting time. They hated doing it,
:07:25. > :07:29.because they did not want to jump the queue. But that is what is
:07:30. > :07:32.increasingly happening. Sorry to interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make
:07:33. > :07:39.very good points but we are short on time today. One final question, it
:07:40. > :07:44.looks like you might have the chance to do any of this, I'm told the best
:07:45. > :07:49.you can hope to do internally is to double the number of seats you have,
:07:50. > :07:54.which would only take you to 18. Do you think that promising to raise
:07:55. > :07:58.people's income tax, even those on average earnings, is a vote winner?
:07:59. > :08:02.I think the people in this country are crying out for politicians to be
:08:03. > :08:09.straight and tenet as it is. At the moment we heading towards a
:08:10. > :08:14.Conservative landslide... -- tell it as it is. But do we want a 1-party
:08:15. > :08:19.state? We are electing a government not only to deal with the crucial
:08:20. > :08:23.Brexit negotiations, but oversee the stewardship of the NHS and funding
:08:24. > :08:26.of our schools, all of these critical issues. We need an
:08:27. > :08:31.effective opposition and with the Labour Party having taken itself off
:08:32. > :08:34.stage, the Liberal Democrats need to provide an effective opposition.
:08:35. > :08:38.Norman Lamb, thank you for joining us this morning. Thank you.
:08:39. > :08:41.Labour and Tories are anxious to stress the general election
:08:42. > :08:43.result is not a foregone conclusion, whatever the polls say.
:08:44. > :08:48.Order you just heard Norman Lamb say there that he thought the
:08:49. > :08:51.Conservatives were heading for a landslide...
:08:52. > :08:53.But did Thursday's dramatic set of local election results
:08:54. > :08:56.in England, Scotland and Wales give us a better idea of how the country
:08:57. > :09:00.Here's Emma Vardy with a behind-the-scenes look at how
:09:01. > :09:03.Good morning, it's seven o'clock on Friday, May 5th...
:09:04. > :09:09.The dawn of another results day. Anticipation hung in the air.
:09:10. > :09:13.Early results from the local elections in England suggest
:09:14. > :09:16.there's been a substantial swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
:09:17. > :09:20.While the pros did their thing, I needed breakfast.
:09:21. > :09:23.Don't tell anyone, but I'm going to pinch a sausage.
:09:24. > :09:25.The overnight counts had delivered successes for the Tories.
:09:26. > :09:26.But with most councils only getting started,
:09:27. > :09:32.there was plenty of action still to come.
:09:33. > :09:34.It's not quite the night of Labour's nightmares.
:09:35. > :09:36.There's enough mixed news in Wales, for example -
:09:37. > :09:39.looks like they're about to hold Cardiff - that they'll try and put
:09:40. > :09:46.But in really simple terms, four weeks from a general election,
:09:47. > :09:49.the Tories are going forward and Labour are going backwards.
:09:50. > :09:54.How does it compare being in here to doing the telly?
:09:55. > :10:00.Huw, how do you prepare yourself for a long day of results, then?
:10:01. > :10:05.We're not even on air yet, as you can see, and already
:10:06. > :10:09.in Tory HQ this morning, there's a kind of, "Oh,
:10:10. > :10:12.I'm scared this will make people think the election's just
:10:13. > :10:15.I think leave it like that - perfect.
:10:16. > :10:18.I want the Laura look. This is really good, isn't it?
:10:19. > :10:22.Usually, we're in here for the Daily Politics.
:10:23. > :10:27.But it's been transformed for the Election Results programme.
:10:28. > :10:39.But hours went by without Ukip winning a single seat.
:10:40. > :10:45.The joke going around Lincolnshire County Council today
:10:46. > :10:47.from the Conservatives is that the Tories have eaten
:10:48. > :10:51.We will rebrand and come back strong.
:10:52. > :10:56.Morale, I think, is inevitably going to take a bit of a tumble.
:10:57. > :10:59.Particularly if Theresa May starts backsliding on Brexit.
:11:00. > :11:02.And then I think we will be totally reinvigorated.
:11:03. > :11:05.There are a lot of good people in Ukip and I wouldn't
:11:06. > :11:08.want to say anything unkind, but we all know it's over.
:11:09. > :11:12.Ukip press officer. Difficult job.
:11:13. > :11:16.Ukip weren't the only ones putting a brave face on it.
:11:17. > :11:19.Labour were experiencing their own disaster day too,
:11:20. > :11:23.losing hundreds of seats and seven councils.
:11:24. > :11:27.If the result is what these results appear to indicate,
:11:28. > :11:32.Can we have a quick word for the Sunday Politics?
:11:33. > :11:40.A quick question for Sunday Politics - how are you feeling?
:11:41. > :11:44.Downhearted or fired up for June? Fired up, absolutely fired up.
:11:45. > :11:47.He's fired up. We're going to go out there...
:11:48. > :11:49.We cannot go on with another five years of this.
:11:50. > :11:52.How's it been for you today? Tiring.
:11:53. > :11:55.It always is, but I love elections, I really enjoy them.
:11:56. > :11:59.Yes, you know, obviously we're disappointed at some of the results,
:12:00. > :12:01.it's been a mixed bag, but some opinion polls
:12:02. > :12:06.and commentators predicted we'd be wiped out - we haven't.
:12:07. > :12:09.As for the Lib Dems, not the resurgence they hoped for,
:12:10. > :12:17.After a dead heat in Northumberland, the control of a whole council came
:12:18. > :12:26.The section of England in which we had elections yesterday
:12:27. > :12:30.was the section of England that was most likely to vote Leave.
:12:31. > :12:33.When you go to sleep at night, do you just have election results
:12:34. > :12:39.The answer is if that's still happening, I don't get to sleep.
:12:40. > :12:41.There we go. Maybe practice some yoga...
:12:42. > :12:45.Thank you very much but I have one here.
:12:46. > :12:49.With the introduction of six regional mayors,
:12:50. > :12:52.Labour's Andy Burnham became Mr Manchester.
:12:53. > :12:55.But by the time Corbyn came to celebrate, the new mayor
:12:56. > :13:01.We want you to stay for a second because I've got some
:13:02. > :13:04.I used to present news, as you probably know.
:13:05. > :13:06.I used to present BBC Breakfast in the morning.
:13:07. > :13:08.The SNP had notable successes, ending 40 years of Labour
:13:09. > :13:15.What did you prefer - presenting or politics?
:13:16. > :13:21.And it certainly had been a hard day at the office for some.
:13:22. > :13:26.Ukip's foothold in local government was all but wiped out,
:13:27. > :13:28.leaving the Conservatives with their best local
:13:29. > :13:33.So another election results day draws to a close.
:13:34. > :13:36.But don't worry, we'll be doing it all again in five weeks' time.
:13:37. > :13:39.For now, though, that's your lot. Off you go.
:13:40. > :13:51.Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,
:13:52. > :13:53.and what they might mean for the wider fortunes
:13:54. > :14:05.In England, there were elections for 34 councils.
:14:06. > :14:07.The Conservatives took control of ten of them,
:14:08. > :14:09.gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained
:14:10. > :14:14.While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,
:14:15. > :14:20.and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.
:14:21. > :14:22.In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing
:14:23. > :14:24.a third of their seats, and control of three councils -
:14:25. > :14:27.while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.
:14:28. > :14:31.In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,
:14:32. > :14:37.There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party
:14:38. > :14:39.after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,
:14:40. > :14:46.although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.
:14:47. > :14:49.We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.
:14:50. > :14:53.You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.
:14:54. > :15:06.In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the
:15:07. > :15:11.general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May
:15:12. > :15:14.wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning
:15:15. > :15:18.a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local
:15:19. > :15:22.election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win
:15:23. > :15:26.the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course
:15:27. > :15:30.people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were
:15:31. > :15:35.double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas
:15:36. > :15:42.the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point
:15:43. > :15:44.Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a
:15:45. > :15:46.landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in
:15:47. > :15:51.England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative
:15:52. > :15:57.lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that
:15:58. > :16:01.she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about
:16:02. > :16:05.who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but
:16:06. > :16:08.there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves
:16:09. > :16:13.her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The
:16:14. > :16:17.local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is
:16:18. > :16:21.going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most
:16:22. > :16:26.prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep
:16:27. > :16:30.the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary
:16:31. > :16:34.Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election
:16:35. > :16:38.results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I
:16:39. > :16:44.looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the
:16:45. > :16:49.general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both
:16:50. > :16:52.local elections in these years, but come the general election, they
:16:53. > :16:57.added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen
:16:58. > :17:01.again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.
:17:02. > :17:04.Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local
:17:05. > :17:11.elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in
:17:12. > :17:16.1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.
:17:17. > :17:22.In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --
:17:23. > :17:25.their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition
:17:26. > :17:28.campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of
:17:29. > :17:33.Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth
:17:34. > :17:38.noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip
:17:39. > :17:41.voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to
:17:42. > :17:44.increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,
:17:45. > :17:50.the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the
:17:51. > :17:56.party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the
:17:57. > :18:00.Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we
:18:01. > :18:05.should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in
:18:06. > :18:10.the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper
:18:11. > :18:13.forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is
:18:14. > :18:17.producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum
:18:18. > :18:22.has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,
:18:23. > :18:29.the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do
:18:30. > :18:33.you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially
:18:34. > :18:36.disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional
:18:37. > :18:41.question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been
:18:42. > :18:45.faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively
:18:46. > :18:50.disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south
:18:51. > :18:53.of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly
:18:54. > :18:58.the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the
:18:59. > :19:02.leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they
:19:03. > :19:07.will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the
:19:08. > :19:17.remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa
:19:18. > :19:21.May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote
:19:22. > :19:29.has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining
:19:30. > :19:33.us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I
:19:34. > :19:38.wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced
:19:39. > :19:45.fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the
:19:46. > :19:49.centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.
:19:50. > :19:54.That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the
:19:55. > :19:59.argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,
:20:00. > :20:04.Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of
:20:05. > :20:13.the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue
:20:14. > :20:20.vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the
:20:21. > :20:24.spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like
:20:25. > :20:27.Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British
:20:28. > :20:30.politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact
:20:31. > :20:36.what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not
:20:37. > :20:39.something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,
:20:40. > :20:45.when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,
:20:46. > :20:48.dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad
:20:49. > :20:54.spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain
:20:55. > :20:58.have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like
:20:59. > :21:01.they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too
:21:02. > :21:06.small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest
:21:07. > :21:11.thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has
:21:12. > :21:17.limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We
:21:18. > :21:21.don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is
:21:22. > :21:25.some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a
:21:26. > :21:30.realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.
:21:31. > :21:33.Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the
:21:34. > :21:36.disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been
:21:37. > :21:41.saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They
:21:42. > :21:45.still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have
:21:46. > :21:49.picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a
:21:50. > :21:53.strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's
:21:54. > :21:57.very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel
:21:58. > :22:00.that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job
:22:01. > :22:05.done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour
:22:06. > :22:11.Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are
:22:12. > :22:15.shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has
:22:16. > :22:20.produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was
:22:21. > :22:24.called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the
:22:25. > :22:27.Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off
:22:28. > :22:33.editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party
:22:34. > :22:39.united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over
:22:40. > :22:42.Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David
:22:43. > :22:47.Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for
:22:48. > :22:51.this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because
:22:52. > :22:54.it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to
:22:55. > :23:01.take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at
:23:02. > :23:04.a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a
:23:05. > :23:06.united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a
:23:07. > :23:10.long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big
:23:11. > :23:12.campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no
:23:13. > :23:15.income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -
:23:16. > :23:18.which of course means those earning more than that could
:23:19. > :23:19.face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John
:23:20. > :23:29.McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone
:23:30. > :23:34.earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an
:23:35. > :23:37.increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.
:23:38. > :23:41.For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more
:23:42. > :23:46.to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be
:23:47. > :23:52.a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a
:23:53. > :23:55.society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.
:23:56. > :24:00.We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.
:24:01. > :24:07.Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be
:24:08. > :24:11.paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.
:24:12. > :24:18.But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would
:24:19. > :24:25.not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for
:24:26. > :24:28.the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners
:24:29. > :24:32.won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a
:24:33. > :24:36.policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell
:24:37. > :24:43.also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%
:24:44. > :24:48.of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying
:24:49. > :24:55.to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,
:24:56. > :24:57.you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's
:24:58. > :25:03.manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out
:25:04. > :25:12.and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set
:25:13. > :25:15.out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he
:25:16. > :25:21.is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis
:25:22. > :25:27.just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The
:25:28. > :25:32.polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was
:25:33. > :25:38.it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between
:25:39. > :25:43.now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.
:25:44. > :25:47.Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their
:25:48. > :25:57.share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way
:25:58. > :26:04.is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I
:26:05. > :26:08.satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is
:26:09. > :26:13.a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections
:26:14. > :26:17.are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to
:26:18. > :26:22.put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle
:26:23. > :26:27.income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You
:26:28. > :26:33.lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The
:26:34. > :26:36.journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an
:26:37. > :26:41.easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are
:26:42. > :26:45.comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the
:26:46. > :26:49.terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a
:26:50. > :26:53.challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are
:26:54. > :26:56.determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter
:26:57. > :27:03.policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took
:27:04. > :27:10.place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --
:27:11. > :27:15.took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of
:27:16. > :27:20.British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm
:27:21. > :27:25.election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after
:27:26. > :27:31.his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of
:27:32. > :27:35.mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all
:27:36. > :27:40.of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I
:27:41. > :27:44.am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused
:27:45. > :27:49.on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies
:27:50. > :27:54.like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum
:27:55. > :28:00.wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of
:28:01. > :28:03.earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and
:28:04. > :28:08.funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by
:28:09. > :28:12.the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives
:28:13. > :28:19.of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the
:28:20. > :28:23.few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to
:28:24. > :28:27.be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.
:28:28. > :28:31.You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy
:28:32. > :28:37.Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate
:28:38. > :28:40.his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview
:28:41. > :28:44.straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped
:28:45. > :28:51.him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the
:28:52. > :28:57.reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in
:28:58. > :29:00.Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into
:29:01. > :29:04.celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge
:29:05. > :29:07.him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to
:29:08. > :29:11.travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed
:29:12. > :29:17.on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?
:29:18. > :29:21.Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time
:29:22. > :29:27.with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy
:29:28. > :29:35.Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am
:29:36. > :29:40.convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat
:29:41. > :29:45.on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He
:29:46. > :29:49.said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour
:29:50. > :29:56.while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the
:29:57. > :30:00.doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my
:30:01. > :30:04.constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single
:30:05. > :30:10.voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest
:30:11. > :30:14.thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that
:30:15. > :30:19.people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even
:30:20. > :30:24.talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy
:30:25. > :30:30.Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum
:30:31. > :30:33.wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and
:30:34. > :30:37.sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under
:30:38. > :30:40.this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,
:30:41. > :30:46.but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,
:30:47. > :30:50.perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour
:30:51. > :30:53.leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on
:30:54. > :30:58.the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead
:30:59. > :31:03.the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won
:31:04. > :31:09.the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more
:31:10. > :31:13.might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of
:31:14. > :31:17.the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four
:31:18. > :31:22.weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see
:31:23. > :31:26.further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to
:31:27. > :31:30.Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my
:31:31. > :31:34.constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And
:31:35. > :31:37.also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She
:31:38. > :31:44.should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.
:31:45. > :31:49.Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary
:31:50. > :32:02.people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D
:32:03. > :32:08.and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do
:32:09. > :32:12.that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living
:32:13. > :32:15.standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the
:32:16. > :32:20.living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We
:32:21. > :32:22.have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you
:32:23. > :32:24.for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's
:32:25. > :32:30.elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party
:32:31. > :32:33.won its best ever local government performance,
:32:34. > :32:35.but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote
:32:36. > :32:38.plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously
:32:39. > :32:42.benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for
:32:43. > :32:44.the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now
:32:45. > :32:46.by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,
:32:47. > :32:57.Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip
:32:58. > :33:01.finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the
:33:02. > :33:07.Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't
:33:08. > :33:13.it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go
:33:14. > :33:17.out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney
:33:18. > :33:21.war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from
:33:22. > :33:25.Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime
:33:26. > :33:29.Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one
:33:30. > :33:35.of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really
:33:36. > :33:38.looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a
:33:39. > :33:43.lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our
:33:44. > :33:48.part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the
:33:49. > :33:54.moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to
:33:55. > :33:58.shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing
:33:59. > :34:01.on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their
:34:02. > :34:07.minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime
:34:08. > :34:11.Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong
:34:12. > :34:17.in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back
:34:18. > :34:23.her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last
:34:24. > :34:27.week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to
:34:28. > :34:29.bully the British government, in those circumstances the British
:34:30. > :34:35.people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the
:34:36. > :34:39.Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician
:34:40. > :34:42.in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for
:34:43. > :34:47.your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters
:34:48. > :34:52.are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in
:34:53. > :34:55.the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.
:34:56. > :35:01.There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that
:35:02. > :35:06.once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit
:35:07. > :35:11.negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the
:35:12. > :35:15.focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of
:35:16. > :35:21.policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.
:35:22. > :35:25.The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap
:35:26. > :35:27.the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health
:35:28. > :35:33.service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with
:35:34. > :35:38.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of
:35:39. > :35:41.what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces
:35:42. > :35:45.beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not
:35:46. > :35:51.Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that
:35:52. > :35:56.time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's
:35:57. > :35:59.fault. We have two become more professional than we have been
:36:00. > :36:05.recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or
:36:06. > :36:08.another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very
:36:09. > :36:12.rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other
:36:13. > :36:16.promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not
:36:17. > :36:21.until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not
:36:22. > :36:26.have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this
:36:27. > :36:33.current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most
:36:34. > :36:41.senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --
:36:42. > :36:44.no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I
:36:45. > :36:50.believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is
:36:51. > :37:00.shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital
:37:01. > :37:05.mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto
:37:06. > :37:12.launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but
:37:13. > :37:16.also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity
:37:17. > :37:25.bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies
:37:26. > :37:29.that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.
:37:30. > :37:33.Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory
:37:34. > :37:38.advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that
:37:39. > :37:43.Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?
:37:44. > :37:48.It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and
:37:49. > :37:54.have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.
:37:55. > :37:58.When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.
:37:59. > :38:02.Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.
:38:03. > :38:04.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:05. > :38:07.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:08. > :38:16.Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French
:38:17. > :38:18.I'm Julia George and this is the Sunday Politics
:38:19. > :38:22.This morning, we'll be taking a detailed look
:38:23. > :38:25.at the winners and losers in Thursday's county council elections.
:38:26. > :38:27.To do that, I'm joined by some winners and some
:38:28. > :38:29.losers from Thursday - their parties stood for election
:38:30. > :38:34.For Ukip, Richard Palmer, Sarah Osborne of the Liberal Democrats,
:38:35. > :38:38.Peter Lamb for Labour and, for the Conservatives, Paul Carter.
:38:39. > :38:44.So, voters in Kent, West and East Sussex and Surrey went
:38:45. > :38:49.With a round-up of the results, here's Bhavani Vadde.
:38:50. > :38:52.It's a democratic exercise to decide who should be in charge
:38:53. > :38:54.of essential local services, ranging from adult social care
:38:55. > :39:03.But, with a general election looming, this week's county council
:39:04. > :39:06.elections are also being viewed by many as a useful barometer
:39:07. > :39:11.of public opinion ahead of that national vote on the 8th of June.
:39:12. > :39:14.The story in the south-east was the consolidation
:39:15. > :39:19.The party gained 45 county councillors and increased
:39:20. > :39:23.their majority in West Sussex, Surrey and Kent.
:39:24. > :39:25.The Conservatives also gained control of East
:39:26. > :39:28.Sussex County Council, where no party has had
:39:29. > :39:35.There's been a lot of work, working with the leaders of the opposition
:39:36. > :39:37.to deliver our policies, because as a minority
:39:38. > :39:44.Going forward, my style has always been to be inclusive,
:39:45. > :39:46.so we'll continue to talk to the opposition, but actually
:39:47. > :39:49.having a majority ensures that we can deliver what we've told
:39:50. > :39:54.Tory glory came at the expense of Ukip.
:39:55. > :39:57.Four years ago, the party dramatically rose to become
:39:58. > :40:01.the opposition on Kent and West Sussex County Councils but,
:40:02. > :40:04.having achieved the aim of leaving the EU, the party's
:40:05. > :40:10.They lost all 32 seats in Kent, Sussex and Surrey.
:40:11. > :40:13.I think we've done so badly because of the tectonic plates
:40:14. > :40:15.of national politics, there's no doubt about it.
:40:16. > :40:18.I think the movements in national politics will bring us back
:40:19. > :40:21.into great popularity in a year or two because I don't believe,
:40:22. > :40:24.and I think many others out there don't believe,
:40:25. > :40:26.that actually Theresa May has the ability to see
:40:27. > :40:31.Labour's results were also pretty dire, losing 11
:40:32. > :40:35.seats across the region, including in Dartford, Gravesend,
:40:36. > :40:39.Dover, Deal and Hastings, all areas where the party has had
:40:40. > :40:43.They lost more than half their councillors
:40:44. > :40:45.as well as their group leader in Kent.
:40:46. > :40:47.It wasn't all doom and gloom, though.
:40:48. > :40:51.They gained Margate West from Ukip, and held five seats in Crawley.
:40:52. > :40:55.We've actually bucked the national trend, so we kept those five good
:40:56. > :40:58.people in post and we'll be working away down at county council.
:40:59. > :41:01.We've got a lot of young people here, young families who think
:41:02. > :41:04.about their future and, at the moment, their future
:41:05. > :41:07.looks very uncertain, and I think Jeremy Corbyn
:41:08. > :41:12.The Lib Dem revival that the party had hoped for didn't
:41:13. > :41:17.Modest success for them, after gaining three seats overall
:41:18. > :41:23.They are now the official opposition on all our county councils.
:41:24. > :41:26.One of their gains was in Lewes, which has given them some optimism
:41:27. > :41:29.and is one of their target seats next month.
:41:30. > :41:33.It's all going to help with the election in June,
:41:34. > :41:35.but really this was about Newhaven and Bishopstone.
:41:36. > :41:38.I live in the division, and my hope is to get
:41:39. > :41:43.Of course, these local results do not predict success or failure
:41:44. > :41:49.So will any of the opposition parties fare any better next month,
:41:50. > :41:52.or are we heading for another Conservative landslide?
:41:53. > :42:01.Joining me now is our political editor, Helen Catt.
:42:02. > :42:03.What strikes you most about these results?
:42:04. > :42:06.I'm not sure the overall picture was particularly a surprise.
:42:07. > :42:09.We expected it to be a good day for the Conservatives,
:42:10. > :42:13.Paul Nuttall, the party leader, when he was in Broadstairs last
:42:14. > :42:15.month, said he expected these to be the toughest elections
:42:16. > :42:20.The surprise, though, is the sheer scale, the almost
:42:21. > :42:23.absolute rout of the opposition in Kent, the total wipe-out of Ukip
:42:24. > :42:27.in this area, which is supposed to be its heartland.
:42:28. > :42:30.If, as Paul Nuttall said, this is the heart of Ukip, this has
:42:31. > :42:34.I think also the Conservatives were not necessarily expecting
:42:35. > :42:38.There were signs there on polling day.
:42:39. > :42:41.They deployed the Prime Minister in areas in East Sussex
:42:42. > :42:45.That's pretty much the nuclear campaigning option, so it's
:42:46. > :42:46.definitely the scale that's a surprise here.
:42:47. > :42:48.Let's look at some areas in particular.
:42:49. > :42:51.As we've been talking about Ukip, why don't we start with Thanet?
:42:52. > :42:55.What was interesting there was to see where that Ukip
:42:56. > :42:58.vote went, and the answer was largely to the Conservatives,
:42:59. > :43:00.although Labour did pick up a couple of seats.
:43:01. > :43:03.What is interesting there is, will Labour now be looking
:43:04. > :43:05.at the South Thanet contest and thinking, is there
:43:06. > :43:08.If Ukip support appears to have fallen away,
:43:09. > :43:12.the Conservatives caught up still in the expenses controversy
:43:13. > :43:14.from the last election, although the candidate,
:43:15. > :43:16.Craig Mackinlay, says of course he has done nothing wrong.
:43:17. > :43:19.But that has the potential to throw a real grenade under
:43:20. > :43:23.East Sussex, fantastically interesting.
:43:24. > :43:25.Lewes, as you saw in that report, it really is game
:43:26. > :43:28.on between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
:43:29. > :43:33.Both parties made net gains with seats in the district.
:43:34. > :43:37.Conservative sources tell me that they crunched the numbers
:43:38. > :43:40.in the constituency and they think they are about 2000 votes ahead.
:43:41. > :43:42.Worth pointing out though, the Greens did astonishingly well
:43:43. > :43:48.If the Lib Dems can convince some of those voters to come
:43:49. > :43:50.across to them on their anti-Brexit platform, that could
:43:51. > :43:54.When you've only got a majority of 1000, small gains
:43:55. > :44:00.A quick thought to what extent you think we can predict anything
:44:01. > :44:01.about the general election from these results.
:44:02. > :44:05.Well, you've always got to be careful with this.
:44:06. > :44:07.These are different elections, turnout seems to be lower,
:44:08. > :44:11.and of course two of the major areas of the south-east were not voting -
:44:12. > :44:14.But arguably this is a better indication of direction
:44:15. > :44:18.This was how people actually voted, and certainly candidates
:44:19. > :44:20.were saying to me that, as soon as Theresa May called
:44:21. > :44:23.that general election, all the talk on the doorstep stopped
:44:24. > :44:31.being about local issues and it was national ones.
:44:32. > :44:38.Let's hear from our guests, from the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
:44:39. > :44:43.Democrat, and we start with Ukip. Ukip looked so strong in Kent and
:44:44. > :44:49.West Sussex, the official opposition on two the county councils. You have
:44:50. > :44:53.been wiped out. What went wrong? Towards the end of last year, we
:44:54. > :44:56.were doing well in by-elections in Kent, winning in Ashford, Maidstone,
:44:57. > :45:02.Thanet, and even into the run-up to the county elections, we were
:45:03. > :45:06.concentrating on local issues that people were concerned about, the
:45:07. > :45:09.overdevelopment, air pollution, those sort of issues that people are
:45:10. > :45:13.concerned about. When the election was called, it started to drop off,
:45:14. > :45:23.and people were voting purely because Theresa May decided to avoid
:45:24. > :45:27.the election expenses scandal. So Ukip simply doesn't stand up to a
:45:28. > :45:32.powerful Prime Minister who appears to have the ear of the population?
:45:33. > :45:37.You didn't at that point had anything to offer? On local issues,
:45:38. > :45:41.certainly we had things to offer, but when Theresa May called the
:45:42. > :45:45.election a Brexit issue, our support started to wane, and it wasn't
:45:46. > :45:49.helped by our leaders saying, to get a good Brexit, you need to vote
:45:50. > :45:51.Conservative, which I think was ill thought out. Paul Nuttall didn't
:45:52. > :45:56.actually say that, he said in some actually say that, he said in some
:45:57. > :46:00.areas, he would stand against a strong Brexiteer Tory MP. Is that
:46:01. > :46:05.what you think people heard? That is what a lot of people thought. What
:46:06. > :46:08.they should be doing during this election is judging their MP on what
:46:09. > :46:12.they have done for their constituency, not how they vote. So
:46:13. > :46:17.do you think the lead of Ukip completely ruined this election for
:46:18. > :46:23.hard-working local Ukip councillors? Yes. I think we should have a
:46:24. > :46:29.different leadership team at the top. What would a good leader do for
:46:30. > :46:32.local councillors, for the people you think worked hard? Look at the
:46:33. > :46:35.overpopulation, overdevelopment, people are worried about
:46:36. > :46:41.overpopulation, overdevelopment, loss of farmland, the way social
:46:42. > :46:45.education. They are the issues education. They are the issues
:46:46. > :46:49.people are worried about the people on the doorstep on saying to me, we
:46:50. > :46:54.want to scrap the BBC TV licence. It isn't an issue, but it seems to be
:46:55. > :47:01.what Paul Nuttall wants to address. A couple of moments ago, on our
:47:02. > :47:03.network show, we heard Neil Hamilton, leader of Ukip in Wales,
:47:04. > :47:06.saying that Paul Nuttall simply isn't to blame for you looking for a
:47:07. > :47:13.scapegoat in the end because life flash in the pan? I think we will
:47:14. > :47:14.come back. And we will certainly come up with local issues. Once
:47:15. > :47:18.people start to realise they are not people start to realise they are not
:47:19. > :47:23.getting the Brexit that was promised, and I think democracy has
:47:24. > :47:27.suffered. You've got a Conservative police and crime commission, a solid
:47:28. > :47:33.Conservative run administration in Kent, Conservative MPs... Who can
:47:34. > :47:35.they blame when it all goes wrong? When you talk about Ukip
:47:36. > :47:40.issues, the thing that springs to issues, the thing that springs to
:47:41. > :47:44.mind is that strong campaign to win Thanet District Council -- Thanet
:47:45. > :47:45.District Council, which is centred on reopening Manston
:47:46. > :47:53.that isn't a great record UK, is it? that isn't a great record UK, is it?
:47:54. > :47:56.I agree. It had an effect in some areas I campaigned in during the
:47:57. > :48:01.county elections, where people said that you made a promise and you
:48:02. > :48:04.haven't delivered. We will come to my ever guests in a moment and a
:48:05. > :48:15.final thought at the moment from Ukip. Given how you feel about the
:48:16. > :48:18.national party, will some of your general election candidates think,
:48:19. > :48:24.there is really no point in me standing? You've got to work for
:48:25. > :48:28.your constituency. You've got to look at your MP's record on the
:48:29. > :48:33.constituency he represents and, if he is not sticking up for the people
:48:34. > :48:39.in the constituency, it needs to be fought tooth and nail. Would you
:48:40. > :48:43.bother standing for Ukip now? I wouldn't be standing in
:48:44. > :48:48.Sittingbourne and Sheppey. Paul Carter, your party was the official
:48:49. > :48:51.opposition and they lost all 14 of their seats. -- this party was the
:48:52. > :49:00.official opposition. Did Ukip do many good on the council? Many of
:49:01. > :49:04.them were ex-Conservatives. They were a responsible opposition and it
:49:05. > :49:08.worked reasonably well. All the opposition groups in Kent County
:49:09. > :49:14.Council, I think, have acted very responsibly, particularly around how
:49:15. > :49:19.we spend over ?1 billion worth of public money and the budget meeting.
:49:20. > :49:21.We set our direction of travel and it was predominantly endorsed by all
:49:22. > :49:26.political parties because they believed we were doing the right
:49:27. > :49:32.thing. Said Kent County Council was so successful that there is no real
:49:33. > :49:35.need opposition at all? No, you need strong opposition to be challenged,
:49:36. > :49:40.and we have had a bigger majority than the one we have now got, which
:49:41. > :49:47.is 67 out of 81 Conservative members. Four years ago, we had 73
:49:48. > :49:50.or 74. I think Paul is accusing the opposition of obedience. Not at all.
:49:51. > :49:55.If you sit at your parties edge policies well and explain why you
:49:56. > :50:01.are taking a direction of travel in social care, education, all the big
:50:02. > :50:06.issues, if you win the high moral ground, they have very little place
:50:07. > :50:12.to go other than to resort to yah boo politics, and that is to be
:50:13. > :50:15.regretted. One of the other consequences of having such
:50:16. > :50:18.dominance, and I know you reminded me earlier that you have been higher
:50:19. > :50:24.in the past, but your argument that local government is underfunding is
:50:25. > :50:29.will fall on deaf ears, because you have won with an enhanced majority
:50:30. > :50:32.and clearly the electorate is pretty relaxed about those spending cuts.
:50:33. > :50:36.Because we have delivered extraordinary efficiency. But how
:50:37. > :50:41.are you going to go back to the government and say, we genuinely
:50:42. > :50:50.need more money for adult social care? We have been given additional
:50:51. > :50:53.money. What my -- a small amount. I'm sure this will be in the
:50:54. > :50:57.Conservative manifesto, how we can move to a sustainable funding for
:50:58. > :51:03.social care. That doesn't involve arguing over who pays social care
:51:04. > :51:05.costs, when the NHS is free at the point of delivery, and the
:51:06. > :51:10.opportunity for some form of funds that protect family wealth for the
:51:11. > :51:15.unfortunate family. So you are hoping for a clear manifesto pledge
:51:16. > :51:20.an adult social care? I have no idea what is in the manifesto. Theresa
:51:21. > :51:23.May has committed to working with local government to find a sensible,
:51:24. > :51:28.sustainable way forward to fund social care, and that will look at
:51:29. > :51:33.other models throughout the world. Very briefly, hold that thought,
:51:34. > :51:37.because I want to stare on this. Sarah Osborne, the Liberal Democrats
:51:38. > :51:43.this morning have announced 1p on income tax to support the NHS and
:51:44. > :51:49.adult social care. Some might say it is a naked bid for the grey vote,
:51:50. > :51:52.but is this financially sound? Could this be tuition fees mark to? I
:51:53. > :51:58.don't think so, we have been honest. You can't deliver good public
:51:59. > :52:03.services, good NHS services and adult social care, without paying
:52:04. > :52:07.for it. We are being clear, it should raise 6 billion, and that
:52:08. > :52:12.isn't just for the grey vote. Everybody uses the NHS. So you think
:52:13. > :52:16.this will play well when you are campaigning, that people will warm
:52:17. > :52:19.to this? What about the triple lock, you are the first body to come out
:52:20. > :52:27.and guarantee that the money come from? Nobody has launched their
:52:28. > :52:34.manifesto but my understanding is that some of the funding will come
:52:35. > :52:40.from reducing access to winter fuel allowance for those on high incomes.
:52:41. > :52:45.And you support this? I do. There are still lots of pensioners in
:52:46. > :52:50.poverty, especially in wrong areas. It's very expensive to live in rural
:52:51. > :52:55.areas, because of the cuts to local government, bus services, Meals on
:52:56. > :52:59.Wheels has disappeared. It is very expensive. It's also expensive for
:53:00. > :53:02.young mums and dads to travel on buses and get to the children's
:53:03. > :53:08.centres that have been cut across Kent and Medway. There have not been
:53:09. > :53:16.cuts. We have not closed any in Kent. East Sussex. There have been
:53:17. > :53:26.cuts. We have preserved and expended in many cases. Karting day in, day
:53:27. > :53:32.out... Eventually be pips will week. Where is the point? We were at it
:53:33. > :53:40.now. Said there is no problem with funding? I want to talk about
:53:41. > :53:45.Labour. We have talked about Ukip. Labour's disaster at the elections
:53:46. > :53:48.deserves some scrutiny. You held on to Crawley despite boundary changes,
:53:49. > :53:53.but if that is the best that can be said about Labour's results in West
:53:54. > :53:58.Sussex, you are a bad place. We haven't held seats outside Crawley
:53:59. > :54:01.in West Sussex since 2009, so we have made the progress we would
:54:02. > :54:03.like, but it isn't the disaster that some people have painted as the one
:54:04. > :54:07.thing we learned in Crawley on thing we learned in Crawley on
:54:08. > :54:10.Thursday was, if you go out there with a strong local message with
:54:11. > :54:14.incumbent candidates working hard, you've got the opportunity to hold
:54:15. > :54:18.on. The real risk for the Labour Party right now is too many
:54:19. > :54:21.activists feeling defeated, too many activists saying, we have already
:54:22. > :54:25.lost this. They have got it wrong. People have come out and we have
:54:26. > :54:32.June the 8th, and we have a look to June the 8th, and we have a look to
:54:33. > :54:35.do. On East Sussex and West Sussex, you made losses. On Kent, you make
:54:36. > :54:43.significant losses, including your group leader. In Kent, where he once
:54:44. > :54:47.had seven MPs, you now only have five out of 81 county councillors.
:54:48. > :54:52.For a party that is in opposition in Westminster, that is a catastrophic
:54:53. > :54:58.results, isn't it? Well, I'm not in charge of the party nationally, but
:54:59. > :55:02.I would say, I'd have a good long think about our message and how it
:55:03. > :55:06.related to people on the ground and what the results told me. But all
:55:07. > :55:14.those Ukip votes up for grabs for the why didn't they come to you?
:55:15. > :55:18.Reed the fact of the matter is we have politics increasingly built
:55:19. > :55:22.around one party. The Labour Party, if there is one thing you can say
:55:23. > :55:25.for it, it is that we went into this campaign honestly. There was no
:55:26. > :55:29.spin. You can see this without candidates would you wouldn't do
:55:30. > :55:31.half the things Jeremy said if he had a spin doctor. You
:55:32. > :55:33.incredibly honest man who finally incredibly honest man
:55:34. > :55:35.has the opportunity to go into this has the opportunity to go into this
:55:36. > :55:40.election with a clear division between the parties for the actors
:55:41. > :55:45.would they really want, time to prove it. But you know as well as I
:55:46. > :55:48.do that people are not giving a ringing endorsement of your lead on
:55:49. > :55:54.the doorstep, are they? They are joining the Lib Dems. We have had an
:55:55. > :56:00.enormous number of Labour activists, experienced in local politics. The
:56:01. > :56:06.biggest political party in Europe. The size of the party isn't the most
:56:07. > :56:10.impressive feature. What do people want on June the 8th, to continue in
:56:11. > :56:16.the current direction, which despite what Theresa May says... What are
:56:17. > :56:20.they saying? I think I was the first council leader to call for him to
:56:21. > :56:23.go, but we are going into a general election campaign, he is the leader
:56:24. > :56:26.and he is offering a different approach to what we've seen before,
:56:27. > :56:33.and people want politics to change so it's time for them to vote. I am
:56:34. > :56:41.backing him. Let's come to Sarah. Until after the election? You are
:56:42. > :56:44.now the official opposition on all of our councils, only by making tiny
:56:45. > :56:48.gains. It seems as though you haven't been forgiven for your time
:56:49. > :56:52.in coalition government. That isn't what I have found on the doorstep.
:56:53. > :56:56.People have moved on. And I think the vote share across the country
:56:57. > :57:01.was up 7% for us, which is significant. We have won or the
:57:02. > :57:07.target seats we set out to fight, and we have been a very effective
:57:08. > :57:12.opposition. I was talking to Peter about why they haven't scooped up
:57:13. > :57:16.more of the Ukip votes. You had the whole of the anti-Brexit vote, that
:57:17. > :57:21.agenda to go out, and you only make small net gains. Do people even know
:57:22. > :57:26.the Liberal Democrats' position on Brexit, especially when candidates
:57:27. > :57:32.like Stephen Lloyd in Eastbourne are refusing to toe the party line? It's
:57:33. > :57:35.very hard to get the message out more, to get the same amount of
:57:36. > :57:39.media coverage. There has been a lot more media coverage of Ukip, even
:57:40. > :57:44.though they have only had one MP, and now none and no councillors
:57:45. > :57:47.either. It's difficult to get the message across. We do it
:57:48. > :57:51.predominantly with leaflets and speaking to people on the doorstep,
:57:52. > :57:54.and that message is getting home. Labour activists are joining us, the
:57:55. > :58:02.Green Party are getting behind the Lib Dems' policy position on Brexit.
:58:03. > :58:06.We still have four weeks to go before the elections and more and
:58:07. > :58:14.more people will know. Paul, we talked a little bit about the
:58:15. > :58:19.Conservatives and social care. You have also talked a lot about funding
:58:20. > :58:22.schools properly, in particular rural primaries where are the
:58:23. > :58:27.Conservatives on this? Jeremy Corbyn has promised to reverse the savings
:58:28. > :58:34.imposed on schools over the next three years. Where is your position
:58:35. > :58:38.on this? On the announcement of the election, there was a consultation
:58:39. > :58:41.on fair funding for schools. That was out for consultation. I think
:58:42. > :58:45.that needs rethinking. I don't think it was eating the right spots. The
:58:46. > :58:53.unfinished was still in some of the indicative budgets. So you want a
:58:54. > :58:58.pledge in your manifesto on that? I want that their funding outcome
:58:59. > :59:02.looked at. It is part way through, no decisions have been made yet. I
:59:03. > :59:03.think that education must be a top priority for future funding, against
:59:04. > :59:08.a massively increasing population of a massively increasing population of
:59:09. > :59:14.young people needing school places. Archer only a few seconds before we
:59:15. > :59:17.had to round up the other news. Brexit is being pushed on the
:59:18. > :59:25.national agenda. What is the big issue in West Sussex? In Crawley,
:59:26. > :59:30.education. Passing on the cuts to local government, we are fed up of
:59:31. > :59:36.it. I think the NHS and social care and possibly overdevelopment but
:59:37. > :59:40.that feeds into education, onto the roads. It all feeds into each other
:59:41. > :59:42.in the end. Before we go, just time for some of the other news you may
:59:43. > :59:47.have missed. The leader of the Liberal Democrats
:59:48. > :59:50.says he is happy for one of his candidates in a marginal seat
:59:51. > :59:53.to contradict the Lib Dems' Stephen Lloyd, who is standing
:59:54. > :59:56.in Eastbourne, told this programme that he would not be voting
:59:57. > :59:59.for a second EU referendum Tim Farron was speaking
:00:00. > :00:05.during his campaign visit in Lewes. Having an independent mind
:00:06. > :00:07.and acting on behalf of your constituents is something
:00:08. > :00:09.that we encourage, and I'm very clear that, if people want to vote
:00:10. > :00:13.to give the British people the final say on the deal, which
:00:14. > :00:15.I think they must do, then the Liberal Democrats
:00:16. > :00:18.are the only choice you've got. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister
:00:19. > :00:21.was also on the campaign trail, this time making a stop
:00:22. > :00:23.in Eastbourne to support the Conservative candidate,
:00:24. > :00:25.Caroline Ansell, who is defending And a proposal by Medway Council to
:00:26. > :00:31.close all 19 children's centres has been met with dismay
:00:32. > :00:33.by the Labour opposition. The Conservative-run council
:00:34. > :00:36.says the plan's needed because of a change in government
:00:37. > :00:39.funding for early years. Instead, it wants to open up
:00:40. > :00:41.four new super-hubs, which it says will better target
:00:42. > :00:50.families most in need. That's all we've got time
:00:51. > :00:52.for from the South-East this week. My thanks to our guests for today -
:00:53. > :00:55.Sarah Osborne, Richard Palmer, I'll be back next week,
:00:56. > :00:59.when we kick off a series of special programmes covering all the big
:01:00. > :01:15.issues for the general housing associations and investment,
:01:16. > :01:25.but we have run out of time, thank you. Andrew.
:01:26. > :01:32.Four weeks to go until polling day on the 8th of June, what will the
:01:33. > :01:36.party strategies be for the remaining four weeks? Let's begin
:01:37. > :01:42.with the Conservatives. Do they just try to continue to play it safe for
:01:43. > :01:46.four weeks? Yes, with this important qualification. Theresa May Corp this
:01:47. > :01:51.election to get her own personal mandate partly, partly because she
:01:52. > :01:57.thought she would win big but to get her own personal mandate. Therefore,
:01:58. > :02:01.she needs to define it. In her own interests and to do with
:02:02. > :02:05.accountability to the country. So clearly, they will not take risks
:02:06. > :02:06.when they are so far ahead in the polls. What they do say in the
:02:07. > :02:13.manifesto matters in terms of the space that she has in
:02:14. > :02:18.the coming years to define her leadership against David Cameron 's.
:02:19. > :02:23.She is a free figure, partly on the basis of what she says as to how big
:02:24. > :02:33.she wins. They cannot just play it safe and repeat their mantra of
:02:34. > :02:38.strong and stable leadership, if she is going to claim her own mandate,
:02:39. > :02:42.they need the top policy? Yes, and what is unusual about this is that
:02:43. > :02:46.the manifesto matters far more because of what they need to do with
:02:47. > :02:50.it afterwards, than in terms of whether it is going to win anybody
:02:51. > :02:54.over now. Clearly, the strategy is yes, we do have two layout out a few
:02:55. > :02:58.things, there are interesting debates as to whether, for example,
:02:59. > :03:02.they will still commit to this ambition of reducing immigration to
:03:03. > :03:06.the tens of thousands, we do not know the answer yet. It is a
:03:07. > :03:12.question on whether she is setting herself up for difficulties later
:03:13. > :03:17.on. It will be a short manifesto, I would venture to guess? It is in her
:03:18. > :03:22.interests to be as noncommittal as possible, that argues for a short
:03:23. > :03:26.manifesto but what does strike me about the Conservative campaign,
:03:27. > :03:30.aside from the ambiguity on policy, is how personal it is. I think
:03:31. > :03:35.Theresa May, in her most recent speech, referred to "My local
:03:36. > :03:38.candidates", rather than Parliamentary candidates, very much
:03:39. > :03:45.framing it as a presidential candidate in France or the USA. Not
:03:46. > :03:50.a rational on her part. Everything I hear from the MPs on the ground and
:03:51. > :03:53.the focus groups being done by the parties, is that a big chunk of the
:03:54. > :03:57.population personally identify with her. If you can wrap up Middle
:03:58. > :04:02.England into a physical object and embody it in a person, it would be
:04:03. > :04:06.her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity accounts for a big
:04:07. > :04:10.slice of her popularity, she has done a good job of bonding with the
:04:11. > :04:15.public. We never saw that coming! But you may well be right. That is
:04:16. > :04:19.happening now. Labour say it wants the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell
:04:20. > :04:22.to play a more prominent role in the Labour campaign, he was on The
:04:23. > :04:26.Andrew Marr Show this morning and he was asked if he was a Marxist, he
:04:27. > :04:31.denied that he was. It surprised me as I had seen tape from before
:04:32. > :04:39.saying that he was proud of it. Let's look now and then. Are you a
:04:40. > :04:43.Marxist? I believe that there is a lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe
:04:44. > :04:48.that there is a lot to learn from reading capital, that is recommended
:04:49. > :04:52.not only by me but measuring economists as well. I also believe
:04:53. > :05:00.that in the long tradition of the Labour Party... We need to demand
:05:01. > :05:04.systemic change. I am a Marxist. This is a classic crisis of the
:05:05. > :05:10.economy. A capitalist crisis. I've been waiting for this for a
:05:11. > :05:15.generation! That was from about four years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist,
:05:16. > :05:19.yes, I am a Marxist... I've been waiting for the Marxist revolution
:05:20. > :05:23.my whole life... Does this kind of thing matter? Yes, but in fairness,
:05:24. > :05:29.I think he is a really good interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have
:05:30. > :05:34.untested figures in a national campaign. None have ever been
:05:35. > :05:38.exposed at any level to a national media campaign that they are about
:05:39. > :05:43.to experience. He is the best interviewee. In fairness to him,
:05:44. > :05:48.when he gave that clip four years ago, I bet he never dream that he
:05:49. > :05:53.would be in a senior front bench position. But the background is
:05:54. > :05:55.clear. They are of the left, and I think they would all have described
:05:56. > :06:02.it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done, he is close to being like Tony Benn.
:06:03. > :06:08.There are about four Labour campaign is being fought in this election.
:06:09. > :06:11.Their campaign, the old Shadow Cabinet, campaigning in
:06:12. > :06:16.constituencies, but not identifying with that campaign. There is the
:06:17. > :06:21.former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is it damaging? I think so, if they
:06:22. > :06:26.could be damaged any further, I could see all of the Labour MPs with
:06:27. > :06:29.their heads in their hands. What I am hearing from Labour MPs is that
:06:30. > :06:33.there is not one of them who do not feel that they have a horrendous
:06:34. > :06:37.battle on their hands. These will be very individual local campaigns,
:06:38. > :06:41.where local MPs are winning despite the party leadership and not because
:06:42. > :06:48.of it. Already, talk is turning to what happens next. Is there anyway
:06:49. > :06:53.that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a horrendous set of general election
:06:54. > :06:59.results as many anticipate, may stay on all the same? It is not clear
:07:00. > :07:03.that even if the polls are right, that Mr Corbyn will go? John
:07:04. > :07:08.McDonnell implied it might not be the case but previously, he said it
:07:09. > :07:13.would be. What do you make of reports that the Labour strategy is
:07:14. > :07:16.not, I cannot quite believe I am saying this, not to win seats but
:07:17. > :07:22.maximise a share of the vote. If they do better than Ed Miliband with
:07:23. > :07:27.30.5% of the vote, they believe they live to fight another day? Yes, it
:07:28. > :07:30.reminded me of Tony Benn's speech after the 1983 election where they
:07:31. > :07:35.said as bad as the Parliamentary defeat was there were 8 million
:07:36. > :07:43.votes for socialism. A big section of public opinion voted for that
:07:44. > :07:48.manifesto. I wonder whether that is Corbyn's supporters best chance of
:07:49. > :07:53.holding onto power. Whether they can say that those votes are a platform
:07:54. > :07:57.on which we can build. That said, even moderate Labour MPs and
:07:58. > :08:01.desperate for a quick leadership contest. I hear a lot of them say
:08:02. > :08:05.that they would like to leave it for one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as
:08:06. > :08:09.an acting Labour leader. He would still have a mandate. Give the top
:08:10. > :08:13.party a chance to regroup and get rid of some of its problems and
:08:14. > :08:17.decide where it stands on policy. Most importantly, for potential
:08:18. > :08:20.candidates to show what they are made of, rather than lurching
:08:21. > :08:25.straight into an Yvette Cooper Coronation. 30 seconds on the
:08:26. > :08:33.Liberal Democrats, their strategy was to mop up the Remain vote.
:08:34. > :08:40.Uncertain about the Brexit party in demise. Ukip. The remain as have a
:08:41. > :08:46.dilemma, the little Democrats are not a strong enough vessel with 89
:08:47. > :08:51.MPs to risk all ongoing for them -- the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not
:08:52. > :08:56.know where they stand on Brexit. There is not a robust alternative
:08:57. > :09:04.vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit Conservative Party. At the moment.
:09:05. > :09:06.Four weeks to go, but not for France...
:09:07. > :09:09.France has been voting since early this morning, and we should get
:09:10. > :09:12.a first estimate of who will be the country's next President
:09:13. > :09:16.Just to warn you there are some flashing images coming up.
:09:17. > :09:18.The choice in France is between a centre-left liberal
:09:19. > :09:20.reformer Emmanuel Macron and a right-wing nationalist
:09:21. > :09:22.Marine Le Pen - both have been casting their votes this morning.
:09:23. > :09:25.The two candidates topped a field of 11 presidential
:09:26. > :09:27.hopefuls in the first round of elections last month.
:09:28. > :09:29.The campaign has been marked by its unpredictability,
:09:30. > :09:35.and in a final twist on Friday evening, just before
:09:36. > :09:37.campaigning officially ended, Mr Macron's En Marche! group said
:09:38. > :09:43.it had been the victim of a "massive" hack,
:09:44. > :09:45.with a trove of documents released online.
:09:46. > :09:48.The Macron team said real documents were mixed up with fake ones,
:09:49. > :09:50.and electoral authorities warned media and the public that spreading
:09:51. > :10:01.details of the leaks would breach strict election rules.
:10:02. > :10:02.I'm joined now from Paris by the journalist
:10:03. > :10:16.As I left Paris recently, everybody told me that there was the consensus
:10:17. > :10:21.that Mr Macron would win, and win pretty comfortable you. Is there any
:10:22. > :10:26.reason to doubt that? -- pretty comfortably. I don't think so, there
:10:27. > :10:31.have been so many people left and right, former candidates who have
:10:32. > :10:35.decided that it was more important to vote for Macron, even if it was
:10:36. > :10:40.agreed with him, then run the risk of having Marine Le Pen as
:10:41. > :10:45.president. I think the spread is now 20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le
:10:46. > :10:51.Pen. So outside of the margin of error that it would take something
:10:52. > :10:55.huge for this to be observed. If the polls are right and Mr Macron wins,
:10:56. > :11:02.he has to put together a government, and in May there is a Coronation,
:11:03. > :11:07.then he faces parliamentary elections in June and could face a
:11:08. > :11:13.fractured parliament where he does not have a clear majority for his
:11:14. > :11:17.reforms. He could then faced difficulties in getting his
:11:18. > :11:22.programme through? I think that right now, with how things are
:11:23. > :11:26.looking, considering you have one half of the Republican party, the
:11:27. > :11:32.Conservative Party, they are making clear sides, not only that they want
:11:33. > :11:38.to support Macron but are supporting him actively. It means looking at
:11:39. > :11:42.the equivalent of the German party, the great coalition. Depending on
:11:43. > :11:45.how many seats established parties keep in the house committee may very
:11:46. > :11:58.well have a Republican Prime Minister, rather than having an
:11:59. > :12:05.adversarial MP, he may have someone who is relatively unknown outside of
:12:06. > :12:11.France, and a young woman. Contended that lost the Parez mayorship three
:12:12. > :12:17.years ago. She is a scientist and has been secretary of state. She
:12:18. > :12:23.would be an interesting coalition Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le
:12:24. > :12:28.Pen, if she goes down to defeat a night, does she have the stomach and
:12:29. > :12:36.ambition, and the energy, to try it all again in 2022? She has all of
:12:37. > :12:43.that. The question is, would they let her? How badly would she lose?
:12:44. > :12:50.Her niece, now 27, a hard-working and steady person, unlike Marine Le
:12:51. > :12:54.Pen, who flunked her do paid -- debate, her niece may decide that
:12:55. > :13:02.2022 is her turn. Yet another Le Pen! All right, we will see. Just
:13:03. > :13:04.five years to wait, but only a few hours until the results of the
:13:05. > :13:09.election tonight. And we will get the exit polls here
:13:10. > :13:13.on the BBC. Given the exit polls will give as a pretty fair
:13:14. > :13:15.indication of what the result is going to be tonight. That will be on
:13:16. > :13:19.BBC news. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will cover every
:13:20. > :13:21.turn of this election campaign, And we're back here on BBC One
:13:22. > :13:26.at our usual time Next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:27. > :13:28.it's the Sunday Politics. Our crack team of experts
:13:29. > :14:17.use pioneering research ..to how to help your pet
:14:18. > :14:20.lose weight.