19/11/2017

0:00:36 > 0:00:37Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:37 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:39 > 0:00:41And this is your guide to all the big stories that

0:00:41 > 0:00:45are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.

0:00:45 > 0:00:48Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget

0:00:48 > 0:00:51on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,

0:00:51 > 0:00:54show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -

0:00:54 > 0:00:59but can he change the direction of the country and his government?

0:00:59 > 0:01:01Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has

0:01:01 > 0:01:02some advice of his own.

0:01:02 > 0:01:05He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit

0:01:05 > 0:01:09- he joins me live to explain why.

0:01:09 > 0:01:12The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

0:01:12 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking

0:01:15 > 0:01:17a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses

0:01:17 > 0:01:21about Brexit.

0:01:21 > 0:01:25And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,

0:01:25 > 0:01:27we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,

0:01:27 > 0:01:29finding out who people most trust with the economy -

0:01:29 > 0:01:36Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

0:01:36 > 0:01:40Add in the south-east, the village that is safe from a proposed lorry

0:01:40 > 0:01:42park, so his operation Stack still the

0:01:49 > 0:01:51All that coming up in the programme.

0:01:51 > 0:01:54And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised

0:01:54 > 0:01:57not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -

0:01:57 > 0:02:00although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -

0:02:00 > 0:02:03it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

0:02:03 > 0:02:06Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news

0:02:06 > 0:02:08this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's

0:02:08 > 0:02:11plenty of speculation about what might or not might be

0:02:11 > 0:02:13in Philip Hammond's Budget.

0:02:13 > 0:02:16The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,

0:02:16 > 0:02:19including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.

0:02:19 > 0:02:23He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,

0:02:23 > 0:02:25where he talks about plans to reach the target of building

0:02:25 > 0:02:29300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city

0:02:29 > 0:02:30the size of Leeds.

0:02:30 > 0:02:33That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal

0:02:33 > 0:02:36Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out

0:02:36 > 0:02:38a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.

0:02:38 > 0:02:41The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer

0:02:41 > 0:02:45a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.

0:02:45 > 0:02:48But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

0:02:48 > 0:02:51He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency

0:02:51 > 0:02:53budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.

0:02:53 > 0:02:57So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

0:02:57 > 0:02:59and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning

0:02:59 > 0:03:03on the Andrew Marr Show.

0:03:03 > 0:03:06I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,

0:03:06 > 0:03:08and we have to embrace the opportunities that

0:03:08 > 0:03:10a post-Brexit world will offer.

0:03:10 > 0:03:13They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,

0:03:13 > 0:03:16huge technological evolution.

0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown

0:03:19 > 0:03:21time and time again that we're up for these challenges.

0:03:21 > 0:03:25For many people out there, this is a depression.

0:03:25 > 0:03:29We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.

0:03:29 > 0:03:30Nurses, for example.

0:03:30 > 0:03:33We've had people who are now...

0:03:33 > 0:03:371.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest

0:03:37 > 0:03:39country in the world.

0:03:39 > 0:03:47That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.

0:03:47 > 0:03:52We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,

0:03:52 > 0:03:56but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk

0:03:56 > 0:04:00to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to

0:04:00 > 0:04:05set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we

0:04:05 > 0:04:11expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor

0:04:11 > 0:04:15across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think

0:04:15 > 0:04:24we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A

0:04:24 > 0:04:26short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

0:04:26 > 0:04:31They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to

0:04:31 > 0:04:36capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on

0:04:36 > 0:04:41earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are

0:04:41 > 0:04:48good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,

0:04:48 > 0:04:53Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get

0:04:53 > 0:04:56anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory

0:04:56 > 0:05:05MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have

0:05:05 > 0:05:08seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting

0:05:08 > 0:05:13in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment

0:05:13 > 0:05:17for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical

0:05:17 > 0:05:23through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold

0:05:23 > 0:05:29ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their

0:05:29 > 0:05:33Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing

0:05:33 > 0:05:38something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for

0:05:38 > 0:05:42how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with

0:05:42 > 0:05:47everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation

0:05:47 > 0:05:53for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for

0:05:53 > 0:05:57economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the

0:05:57 > 0:06:01issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up

0:06:01 > 0:06:06with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they

0:06:06 > 0:06:11absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls

0:06:11 > 0:06:15apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from

0:06:15 > 0:06:19Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them

0:06:19 > 0:06:24something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different

0:06:24 > 0:06:27people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and

0:06:27 > 0:06:35dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical

0:06:35 > 0:06:44terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic

0:06:44 > 0:06:49cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if

0:06:49 > 0:06:55you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,

0:06:55 > 0:07:00if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be

0:07:00 > 0:07:05worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn

0:07:05 > 0:07:11on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,

0:07:11 > 0:07:16and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of

0:07:16 > 0:07:19probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in

0:07:19 > 0:07:24the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds

0:07:24 > 0:07:29impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the

0:07:29 > 0:07:34last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much

0:07:34 > 0:07:40can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it

0:07:40 > 0:07:47is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the

0:07:47 > 0:07:51party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,

0:07:51 > 0:08:01damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction

0:08:01 > 0:08:08in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high

0:08:08 > 0:08:12inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will

0:08:12 > 0:08:17probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will

0:08:17 > 0:08:22pick up on some of this later in the programme.

0:08:22 > 0:08:25Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

0:08:25 > 0:08:27he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised

0:08:27 > 0:08:29the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences

0:08:29 > 0:08:34of leaving the EU.

0:08:34 > 0:08:38Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty

0:08:38 > 0:08:47radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

0:08:47 > 0:08:51London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we

0:08:51 > 0:08:56will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to

0:08:56 > 0:09:00the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we

0:09:00 > 0:09:05have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It

0:09:05 > 0:09:09is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the

0:09:09 > 0:09:14modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,

0:09:14 > 0:09:19which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what

0:09:19 > 0:09:26would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.

0:09:26 > 0:09:32The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the

0:09:32 > 0:09:35classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free

0:09:35 > 0:09:39trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting

0:09:39 > 0:09:47a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you

0:09:47 > 0:09:52right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the

0:09:52 > 0:09:55Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on

0:09:55 > 0:10:01the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury

0:10:01 > 0:10:04have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the

0:10:04 > 0:10:08nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.

0:10:08 > 0:10:14These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the

0:10:14 > 0:10:21euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but

0:10:21 > 0:10:27it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

0:10:27 > 0:10:35who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the

0:10:35 > 0:10:40exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past

0:10:40 > 0:10:45doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the

0:10:45 > 0:10:49Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to

0:10:49 > 0:10:54you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its

0:10:54 > 0:11:00forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The

0:11:00 > 0:11:03short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most

0:11:03 > 0:11:09dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of

0:11:09 > 0:11:11political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the

0:11:11 > 0:11:17same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.

0:11:17 > 0:11:20You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,

0:11:20 > 0:11:25and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the

0:11:25 > 0:11:30Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an

0:11:30 > 0:11:36enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

0:11:36 > 0:11:41his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to

0:11:41 > 0:11:45the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to

0:11:45 > 0:11:52change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he

0:11:52 > 0:11:56is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very

0:11:56 > 0:12:02encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive

0:12:02 > 0:12:07approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very

0:12:07 > 0:12:13close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury

0:12:13 > 0:12:17and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an

0:12:17 > 0:12:21exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

0:12:21 > 0:12:27thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather

0:12:27 > 0:12:33than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in

0:12:33 > 0:12:38absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.

0:12:38 > 0:12:42When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has

0:12:42 > 0:12:49to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the

0:12:49 > 0:12:52referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been

0:12:52 > 0:12:57made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This

0:12:57 > 0:13:02only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that

0:13:02 > 0:13:09voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put

0:13:09 > 0:13:15£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the

0:13:15 > 0:13:20NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was

0:13:20 > 0:13:26won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on

0:13:26 > 0:13:31that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on

0:13:31 > 0:13:35implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The

0:13:35 > 0:13:39Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we

0:13:39 > 0:13:44understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU

0:13:44 > 0:13:48demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for

0:13:48 > 0:13:54things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the

0:13:54 > 0:14:00exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government

0:14:00 > 0:14:04will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,

0:14:04 > 0:14:09or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be

0:14:09 > 0:14:13part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to

0:14:13 > 0:14:19choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to

0:14:19 > 0:14:22choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive

0:14:22 > 0:14:27schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the

0:14:27 > 0:14:36government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?

0:14:36 > 0:14:41It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we

0:14:41 > 0:14:47left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the

0:14:47 > 0:14:53remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against

0:14:53 > 0:14:58paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would

0:14:58 > 0:15:06be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have

0:15:06 > 0:15:10new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal

0:15:10 > 0:15:13situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down

0:15:13 > 0:15:17on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face

0:15:17 > 0:15:21of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned

0:15:21 > 0:15:29if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50

0:15:29 > 0:15:39is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

0:15:39 > 0:15:44makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in

0:15:44 > 0:15:47same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of

0:15:47 > 0:15:52view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you

0:15:52 > 0:15:53would.

0:15:53 > 0:15:56We're joined in the studio by the former minister

0:15:56 > 0:15:57Stephen Hammond.

0:15:57 > 0:15:59He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member

0:15:59 > 0:16:02of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named

0:16:02 > 0:16:04as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph

0:16:04 > 0:16:06this week - lucky him.

0:16:06 > 0:16:12I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

0:16:12 > 0:16:20on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a

0:16:20 > 0:16:26rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it

0:16:26 > 0:16:31is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the

0:16:31 > 0:16:35negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we

0:16:35 > 0:16:42expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March

0:16:42 > 0:16:472019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do

0:16:47 > 0:16:51harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those

0:16:51 > 0:16:55negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a

0:16:55 > 0:16:59couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019

0:16:59 > 0:17:04and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing

0:17:04 > 0:17:11with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government

0:17:11 > 0:17:14said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the

0:17:14 > 0:17:20advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by

0:17:20 > 0:17:24somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

0:17:24 > 0:17:29be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You

0:17:29 > 0:17:32did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important

0:17:32 > 0:17:37that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to

0:17:37 > 0:17:42set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time

0:17:42 > 0:17:47available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal

0:17:47 > 0:17:53between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be

0:17:53 > 0:17:56interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British

0:17:56 > 0:18:02electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote

0:18:02 > 0:18:05to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we

0:18:05 > 0:18:10would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get

0:18:10 > 0:18:14through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be

0:18:14 > 0:18:18completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I

0:18:18 > 0:18:23don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and

0:18:23 > 0:18:29getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to

0:18:29 > 0:18:32settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount

0:18:32 > 0:18:38that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy

0:18:38 > 0:18:43for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick

0:18:43 > 0:18:48to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our

0:18:48 > 0:18:53liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20

0:18:53 > 0:18:56billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of

0:18:56 > 0:19:01the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade

0:19:01 > 0:19:07deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

0:19:07 > 0:19:12that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're

0:19:12 > 0:19:18prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,

0:19:18 > 0:19:28that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The

0:19:28 > 0:19:31Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we

0:19:31 > 0:19:39don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:39 > 0:19:45about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal

0:19:45 > 0:19:49requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:49 > 0:19:53others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we

0:19:53 > 0:19:57shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier

0:19:57 > 0:20:03said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has

0:20:03 > 0:20:11not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer

0:20:11 > 0:20:16would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

0:20:16 > 0:20:21suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But

0:20:21 > 0:20:25we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.

0:20:25 > 0:20:31No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:31 > 0:20:37It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to

0:20:37 > 0:20:41secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the

0:20:41 > 0:20:47scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.

0:20:47 > 0:20:53You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some

0:20:53 > 0:20:59of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:59 > 0:21:05suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

0:21:05 > 0:21:11you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some

0:21:11 > 0:21:19flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:19 > 0:21:25drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,

0:21:25 > 0:21:30the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:30 > 0:21:36view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:36 > 0:21:43the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.

0:21:43 > 0:21:48Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think

0:21:48 > 0:21:53that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the

0:21:53 > 0:21:57economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:57 > 0:22:03price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:22:03 > 0:22:07biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:07 > 0:22:14in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in

0:22:14 > 0:22:22additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I

0:22:22 > 0:22:26think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling

0:22:26 > 0:22:32can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:32 > 0:22:39model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:39 > 0:22:46job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long

0:22:46 > 0:22:49economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of

0:22:49 > 0:22:54business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:54 > 0:22:59much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.

0:22:59 > 0:23:03There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:03 > 0:23:06individuals we want to stand together and support the best

0:23:06 > 0:23:11interests of the government.Thank you.

0:23:11 > 0:23:14Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:14 > 0:23:16to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:16 > 0:23:18free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:18 > 0:23:21He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'

0:23:21 > 0:23:25and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.

0:23:25 > 0:23:28Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:28 > 0:23:30of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.

0:23:30 > 0:23:33We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders

0:23:33 > 0:23:36she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.

0:23:36 > 0:23:39Here's her film.

0:23:46 > 0:23:49I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,

0:23:49 > 0:23:52and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,

0:23:52 > 0:23:56and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:56 > 0:24:01years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.

0:24:03 > 0:24:06I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful

0:24:06 > 0:24:09of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave

0:24:09 > 0:24:11the European Union because we thought the country would be

0:24:11 > 0:24:14better off outside.

0:24:14 > 0:24:17It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:17 > 0:24:20the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining

0:24:20 > 0:24:25the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany

0:24:25 > 0:24:28experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:28 > 0:24:30The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.

0:24:30 > 0:24:35But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:37 > 0:24:40Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:40 > 0:24:43Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:43 > 0:24:44Germany's extraordinary success is down to

0:24:44 > 0:24:48the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:48 > 0:24:54German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:54 > 0:25:00long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.

0:25:00 > 0:25:02Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:02 > 0:25:05are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want

0:25:05 > 0:25:12that to go away.

0:25:12 > 0:25:17German business is not given to making big political statements

0:25:17 > 0:25:20out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:20 > 0:25:23positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:23 > 0:25:26with the United Kingdom.

0:25:26 > 0:25:29BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,

0:25:29 > 0:25:33and exports just under 1 million cars annually.

0:25:33 > 0:25:37The UK is a vital market.

0:25:37 > 0:25:42What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:42 > 0:25:46because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,

0:25:46 > 0:25:51it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,

0:25:51 > 0:25:54but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,

0:25:54 > 0:25:58and what we need to see now is what is going to be

0:25:58 > 0:26:00the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,

0:26:00 > 0:26:02what is going to be the requirements for people

0:26:02 > 0:26:05moving across the continent?

0:26:05 > 0:26:08Because all of these things are important to us today.

0:26:08 > 0:26:11And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.

0:26:11 > 0:26:14Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission

0:26:14 > 0:26:18is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be

0:26:18 > 0:26:19German business, German consumers and German employees

0:26:19 > 0:26:24who will suffer.

0:26:24 > 0:26:26TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete

0:26:26 > 0:26:28the first phase successfully.

0:26:28 > 0:26:32The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial

0:26:32 > 0:26:34consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.

0:26:34 > 0:26:38And then it's not a question of punishment payments.

0:26:38 > 0:26:40It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:40 > 0:26:44obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes

0:26:44 > 0:26:47a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,

0:26:47 > 0:26:56so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.

0:26:56 > 0:27:00It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.

0:27:00 > 0:27:04Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:04 > 0:27:07but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:07 > 0:27:12have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.

0:27:12 > 0:27:16Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results

0:27:16 > 0:27:18both sides being able to trade together and work

0:27:18 > 0:27:25together post-Brexit.

0:27:25 > 0:27:27Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:27 > 0:27:28and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.

0:27:28 > 0:27:33Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:33 > 0:27:36then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:36 > 0:27:37the European Union and Germany?

0:27:37 > 0:27:39It's absolutely true.

0:27:39 > 0:27:42I think that this is about two things.

0:27:42 > 0:27:47One, about proving that free trade is possible

0:27:47 > 0:27:50between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.

0:27:50 > 0:27:54If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,

0:27:54 > 0:27:58then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?

0:27:58 > 0:28:03Number two is, I also believe the free trade,

0:28:03 > 0:28:07free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:07 > 0:28:09has chosen as the path into the future is a role

0:28:09 > 0:28:12model for Europe.

0:28:12 > 0:28:15The time has come both for the United Kingdom

0:28:15 > 0:28:18and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of

0:28:18 > 0:28:20deal we can achieve.

0:28:20 > 0:28:22Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:22 > 0:28:25As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:25 > 0:28:31we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.

0:28:31 > 0:28:35But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading

0:28:35 > 0:28:37economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,

0:28:37 > 0:28:43and that is German business.

0:28:43 > 0:28:45That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case

0:28:45 > 0:28:47and we'll be hearing from the opposite side

0:28:47 > 0:28:48of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:48 > 0:28:51Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:51 > 0:28:54He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up

0:28:54 > 0:28:56the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:56 > 0:28:58and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference

0:28:58 > 0:29:01he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:29:01 > 0:29:06Welcome both of you.

0:29:06 > 0:29:10We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German

0:29:10 > 0:29:15business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in

0:29:15 > 0:29:19their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:19 > 0:29:25said that defending the single market must be the priority for the

0:29:25 > 0:29:30EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:30 > 0:29:37states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after

0:29:37 > 0:29:42the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:42 > 0:29:50tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:50 > 0:29:53full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,

0:29:53 > 0:30:01that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion

0:30:01 > 0:30:04of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the

0:30:04 > 0:30:12head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important

0:30:12 > 0:30:18as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:18 > 0:30:24the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second

0:30:24 > 0:30:29biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:29 > 0:30:35that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:35 > 0:30:39wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at

0:30:39 > 0:30:47the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:47 > 0:30:52side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:52 > 0:30:57thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:57 > 0:31:01good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a

0:31:01 > 0:31:05disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the

0:31:05 > 0:31:10delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:10 > 0:31:16us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80

0:31:16 > 0:31:21billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:21 > 0:31:26Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:26 > 0:31:31Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need

0:31:31 > 0:31:38them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:38 > 0:31:44be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:44 > 0:31:50end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:50 > 0:31:57deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:57 > 0:32:04there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,

0:32:04 > 0:32:09the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:09 > 0:32:13decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would

0:32:13 > 0:32:18have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the

0:32:18 > 0:32:23referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's

0:32:23 > 0:32:28interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic

0:32:28 > 0:32:35stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:35 > 0:32:49was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:49 > 0:32:53There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:53 > 0:32:58change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:58 > 0:33:02to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:02 > 0:33:09for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work

0:33:09 > 0:33:13together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You

0:33:13 > 0:33:20don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:20 > 0:33:25give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:25 > 0:33:31cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:31 > 0:33:36I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about

0:33:36 > 0:33:43what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:43 > 0:33:47democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:47 > 0:33:52its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:52 > 0:33:58to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to

0:33:58 > 0:34:03encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on

0:34:03 > 0:34:08the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we

0:34:08 > 0:34:12are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:12 > 0:34:18of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:18 > 0:34:22damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:22 > 0:34:28Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European

0:34:28 > 0:34:36Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:36 > 0:34:42minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:42 > 0:34:52just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:52 > 0:34:56either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision

0:34:56 > 0:35:02of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not

0:35:02 > 0:35:11stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:11 > 0:35:21Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:21 > 0:35:26Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving

0:35:26 > 0:35:31reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going

0:35:31 > 0:35:37on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of

0:35:37 > 0:35:43incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:43 > 0:35:50You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:50 > 0:35:53business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in

0:35:53 > 0:35:58place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will

0:35:58 > 0:36:02find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get

0:36:02 > 0:36:06those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the

0:36:06 > 0:36:11progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually

0:36:11 > 0:36:19encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:19 > 0:36:23out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:23 > 0:36:26time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:26 > 0:36:31people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:31 > 0:36:36still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.

0:36:36 > 0:36:44I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the

0:36:44 > 0:36:48incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept

0:36:48 > 0:36:54the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:54 > 0:36:59I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:59 > 0:37:03the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to

0:37:03 > 0:37:08change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:08 > 0:37:14to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at

0:37:14 > 0:37:23the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:23 > 0:37:29a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:29 > 0:37:34fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably

0:37:34 > 0:37:40spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:40 > 0:37:46the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want

0:37:46 > 0:37:51us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make

0:37:51 > 0:37:57it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:57 > 0:38:03want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of

0:38:03 > 0:38:10the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:10 > 0:38:15hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And

0:38:15 > 0:38:20they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.

0:38:20 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:22 > 0:38:25Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest

0:38:25 > 0:38:27opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox

0:38:27 > 0:38:30asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:30 > 0:38:37the economy.

0:38:37 > 0:38:40Hello, I'm Julia George, and this is the Sunday Politics

0:38:40 > 0:38:41in the south-east.

0:38:41 > 0:38:44Coming up later, we'll hear from young men in Kent who have been

0:38:44 > 0:38:46affected by mental health issues.

0:38:46 > 0:38:50Why do so many like them find it so difficult to get help?

0:38:50 > 0:38:53On today's programme we are joined by Helen Wakeley,

0:38:53 > 0:38:56Conservative MP for Faversham and Mid Kent, the Labour leader

0:38:56 > 0:38:59of Brighton and Hove City Council, Warren Morgan, and we are joined

0:38:59 > 0:39:02by Liam Collins who is the head teacher of Upton's Community

0:39:02 > 0:39:04College, a secondary school in East Sussex.

0:39:04 > 0:39:07It is great to have you all with us this week.

0:39:07 > 0:39:09Now in recent weeks, parents teachers and head teachers

0:39:09 > 0:39:11have been to Westminster to press the government to announce

0:39:11 > 0:39:13more money for schools in next week 's budget.

0:39:13 > 0:39:15They say school finances are at breaking point,

0:39:15 > 0:39:18setting standards and meaning larger class sizes and fewer

0:39:18 > 0:39:21subjects on offer to pupils.

0:39:21 > 0:39:24So far, the Treasury has not given any signals that

0:39:24 > 0:39:26more money is coming.

0:39:26 > 0:39:28Liam Collins, what is the situation?

0:39:28 > 0:39:31Are you really struggling with money now?

0:39:31 > 0:39:33Yes, we are reaching a point where the cost increases

0:39:33 > 0:39:36that we are facing are starting to have a real impact.

0:39:36 > 0:39:39From next year we will be having to spend £500 less per pupil

0:39:39 > 0:39:42than we would have done five years ago, simply because of the costs

0:39:42 > 0:39:50of inflation, national insurance, pension contributions.

0:39:50 > 0:39:53At that has for us is that clearly we take our message of spending

0:39:53 > 0:39:56the public purse very carefully, we have to make significant cuts

0:39:56 > 0:40:03and in the main in schools that means cuts to staffing.

0:40:03 > 0:40:05OK, so teaching staff, front line staff?

0:40:05 > 0:40:07Front line teaching staff, pastoral workers, associate staff

0:40:07 > 0:40:11that look after the admin side of school, and on top of that we had

0:40:11 > 0:40:13a councillor that worked with as three days per week

0:40:13 > 0:40:22and we no longer can afford to councillor working for us.

0:40:22 > 0:40:25I want you to hold that thought, because we will be talking

0:40:25 > 0:40:28about young people's mental health later on, so you have had to get rid

0:40:28 > 0:40:32of, you cannot afford the school counsellor.

0:40:32 > 0:40:33That's right.

0:40:33 > 0:40:35What about all things, structure, that sort of thing?

0:40:35 > 0:40:38The biggest cut that we face is the cut to the capital

0:40:38 > 0:40:41expenditure grant, which meant that we went from £140,000 per year

0:40:41 > 0:40:43to this year £12,000, so really what we are doing is band

0:40:43 > 0:40:46aid repairs to the school, where we can, but on top

0:40:46 > 0:40:51of things like that, we have an IT system that is now

0:40:51 > 0:40:53four years old and we can replace that IT system,

0:40:53 > 0:40:56so we are at that point with lots of other areas

0:40:56 > 0:41:05in the school as well.

0:41:05 > 0:41:08Judging by the fact that there have been marches to Westminster

0:41:08 > 0:41:10by teachers and headteachers up and down the country,

0:41:10 > 0:41:13this is not only happening in this one school in East Sussex.

0:41:13 > 0:41:15Let's go to Warren Morgan, leader of pregnant of City Council.

0:41:15 > 0:41:17What are you hearing from your schools?

0:41:17 > 0:41:20We have had a delegation of parents and teachers led by Steve Coogan

0:41:20 > 0:41:23who is a Brighton resident, go up and project some

0:41:23 > 0:41:25of the statistics on to the side of the House of Commons.

0:41:25 > 0:41:29Now we are facing a small increase but it is not enough to keep up

0:41:29 > 0:41:32with the pressures of cost inflation and we are worried that

0:41:32 > 0:41:35the standards in our schools will start to slip at a time

0:41:35 > 0:41:38when we need our pupils to be competitive.

0:41:38 > 0:41:41Helen Wakeley, what are you hearing from schools where you are?

0:41:41 > 0:41:43And do you talk to them about the financial pressures?

0:41:43 > 0:41:46Yes, since I have been an MP I have had many conversations with schools

0:41:46 > 0:41:49and parents in my area, and the good news that my area,

0:41:49 > 0:41:52like Liam's area, it is one that is benefiting from an increase

0:41:52 > 0:41:55in funding source schools in Faversham and Kent

0:41:55 > 0:41:57are getting a 6% increase, some of our worst funded schools

0:41:57 > 0:42:02are getting more than 10% rise in their funding and headteachers

0:42:02 > 0:42:05have said to me they think this is really good news and the really

0:42:05 > 0:42:09welcome the increase in funding and it is going to take the pressure

0:42:09 > 0:42:12off them and enable them to make the investments they want to make.

0:42:12 > 0:42:15They clearly don't think it is enough otherwise they would not be

0:42:15 > 0:42:16marching on Westminster.

0:42:16 > 0:42:18Liam Collins, here is a chance, what did you want from

0:42:18 > 0:42:19the Chancellor in the budget?

0:42:19 > 0:42:23For as we want a fair funding across the whole of the UK,

0:42:23 > 0:42:24that is the first part of it.

0:42:24 > 0:42:27If my school where in Greenwich for example I would get

0:42:27 > 0:42:28an additional million pounds per year.

0:42:28 > 0:42:31I would also want more funding across the whole education system.

0:42:31 > 0:42:34For as we have a 2% increase next year which is again, that's great,

0:42:34 > 0:42:37but it does not cover anything near the cost that we have coming

0:42:37 > 0:42:41out at the same time so a 2% increase in legal fees with a 9%

0:42:41 > 0:42:43increase in our cost is still, you can do

0:42:43 > 0:42:51the maths, a 7% cut overall.

0:42:51 > 0:42:53Warren Morgan, let's not about what the £1.3 billion extra

0:42:53 > 0:42:56that the government like the tell us it is giving to schools.

0:42:56 > 0:42:59To be clear, we know it is not new money,

0:42:59 > 0:43:00it is in the department already.

0:43:00 > 0:43:05But it is still extra for schools.

0:43:05 > 0:43:08It is nowhere near enough to offset the 3 billion real terms cut

0:43:08 > 0:43:11that this government has enacted since they came to power in 2010.

0:43:11 > 0:43:13So the reality is that school budgets are falling back

0:43:13 > 0:43:16and at a time where as we will discuss later, there are issues

0:43:16 > 0:43:19like mental health to address and the best place to address them

0:43:19 > 0:43:22is through early intervention in schools, and we can see that

0:43:22 > 0:43:25schools can't afford to do that.

0:43:25 > 0:43:271.3 billion, Helen Wakeley, it is not new money.

0:43:28 > 0:43:29It is in the department already.

0:43:29 > 0:43:31Interesting the most senior civil servant in the Department

0:43:31 > 0:43:34for Education has recently admitted they have not yet worked out

0:43:34 > 0:43:37where that is, the 1.3 billion, or indeed where all of it is going

0:43:37 > 0:43:39to come from.

0:43:39 > 0:43:41The right thing the department is doing is looking for efficiencies

0:43:41 > 0:43:44within it to make sure that as much money as possible goes

0:43:44 > 0:43:46to the front line in schools.

0:43:46 > 0:43:52That is the right...

0:43:52 > 0:43:53But they have not found that money.

0:43:53 > 0:43:56Schools themselves have made efficiency savings and I know

0:43:56 > 0:43:59it is tough in schools in the last few years, the good thing is that

0:43:59 > 0:44:02now the money they are getting is going up and it is fantastic.

0:44:02 > 0:44:06I do think, we know that even doing the squeeze over the last few years,

0:44:06 > 0:44:09school standards have improved and now is the time really to move

0:44:09 > 0:44:12the conversation on and be focusing on making the most of the money

0:44:12 > 0:44:13that we have.

0:44:13 > 0:44:16Should we move the conversation on our keep hammering the government

0:44:16 > 0:44:19on why it is that they are spending, for instance, we know that

0:44:19 > 0:44:22per capita, in relation to GDP, we are as this is an Oxfam study,

0:44:22 > 0:44:24we are 109th out of 152 countries on education

0:44:24 > 0:44:26spending as a share of GDP.

0:44:26 > 0:44:29You are seeing her spending is fantastic, we are behind

0:44:29 > 0:44:30Kazakhstan and Cambodia.

0:44:30 > 0:44:32We spend more than Germany and Singapore, both of those

0:44:32 > 0:44:34countries are doing better than us, so money is not

0:44:34 > 0:44:35the whole answer here.

0:44:35 > 0:44:39What really matters is having really great teaching and really great

0:44:39 > 0:44:41experience for pupils in schools and moving beyond the academic

0:44:41 > 0:44:45to vocational opportunities, we have T levels coming...

0:44:45 > 0:44:47But schools are scrapping vocational subjects because they haven't got

0:44:47 > 0:44:49enough money to run them.

0:44:49 > 0:44:52Saw a few weeks ago I was at the Abbey School

0:44:52 > 0:44:54which is doing a particular vocational study, they are investing

0:44:54 > 0:44:57in that right now so we are seeing really great vocational stuff

0:44:57 > 0:45:04going along side the academic subjects.

0:45:04 > 0:45:06Liam Collins.

0:45:06 > 0:45:08Clearly from a school 's point of view we are not talking

0:45:08 > 0:45:11about the fact that in East Sussex we are heading for class

0:45:11 > 0:45:14size is well above 30, and if you look at as getting

0:45:14 > 0:45:17the same amount of money is Hackney, we are talking about 3300 extra

0:45:17 > 0:45:18teachers that we can employ.

0:45:18 > 0:45:28Education is going to suffer.

0:45:29 > 0:45:32We are faced with a class of 30-32, it becomes harder, 35 it

0:45:32 > 0:45:33becomes really hard.

0:45:33 > 0:45:36As you start to hear about schools that are teaching classes of 40.

0:45:36 > 0:45:39Can I pick up on the point about Hackney?

0:45:39 > 0:45:42Because I am one of the MPs that has worked really hard for us

0:45:42 > 0:45:43to have a fair funding formula...

0:45:43 > 0:45:46Hold on a second, on the fair funding formula, this week,

0:45:46 > 0:45:48today, these questions are about the budget,

0:45:48 > 0:45:49it is about the whole pot.

0:45:49 > 0:45:52Fair funding is one thing about dividing up the pot

0:45:52 > 0:45:54but the question this week is surely is the pot big enough

0:45:55 > 0:45:56in the first place?

0:45:56 > 0:45:58We have to be careful that it is a fair funding

0:45:58 > 0:46:00formula that we have, that similar schools in different

0:46:00 > 0:46:03parts of the country will now be getting similar amounts of money

0:46:03 > 0:46:06and the school in a more deprived area with more challenging,

0:46:06 > 0:46:12challenged pupils, will of course have to get extra money...

0:46:12 > 0:46:13Can I just say...

0:46:13 > 0:46:15you cannot just get extra money...

0:46:15 > 0:46:18The money that I have talked about has no deprivation in it,

0:46:18 > 0:46:19that is just the pier pupil funding.

0:46:19 > 0:46:21Hackney almost get double the amount of money that

0:46:21 > 0:46:23skills in East Sussex get.

0:46:23 > 0:46:25Warren, you want to come in on this.

0:46:25 > 0:46:26In Maidenhead in the Prime Minister's own constituency

0:46:26 > 0:46:29to schools this week have appealed to parents to provide them

0:46:29 > 0:46:31with the most basic equipment for teaching children,

0:46:31 > 0:46:33my partner is a special, is a special needs teacher

0:46:33 > 0:46:36in a school and she has had her hours cut back

0:46:36 > 0:46:37to two days per week.

0:46:37 > 0:46:40This cannot be right if we as a nation are going

0:46:40 > 0:46:42to compete with Germany and Singapore post Brexit

0:46:42 > 0:46:44as the government seems to expect we will.

0:46:44 > 0:46:45A really quick thought from Helen Wakeley,

0:46:45 > 0:46:47because you are the PPS to Justine Greening,

0:46:47 > 0:46:50Justin Greening is the Secretary of State for Education

0:46:50 > 0:46:53and you will know what nobody else in this room can tell us,

0:46:53 > 0:46:55has she had a discussion with the Chancellor?

0:46:55 > 0:46:57And did she walk away happy about the budget?

0:46:57 > 0:47:00To be clear I am here in my capacity as the member of Parliament

0:47:00 > 0:47:02for Haversham and mid Kent 's...

0:47:02 > 0:47:04But you are also the PPS to Justine Greening...

0:47:04 > 0:47:07You, like me, will have to be little when the next week to find out

0:47:07 > 0:47:08what is in the budget.

0:47:08 > 0:47:10So has she had a conversation?

0:47:10 > 0:47:13As I said we have to wait until Wednesday next week to find it

0:47:13 > 0:47:14what is in the budget.

0:47:14 > 0:47:17OK, that does not tell is whether she has had

0:47:17 > 0:47:19the conversation or not or whether she walk away happy

0:47:19 > 0:47:22but I understand that is as far as Helen Wakeley wants to go

0:47:22 > 0:47:23on that one.

0:47:23 > 0:47:27Now we have all talked about how this leads into our next subject,

0:47:27 > 0:47:30I wonder if your child has had to wait for help with self harm,

0:47:30 > 0:47:31anorexio, crippling anxiety, or depression.

0:47:31 > 0:47:33The money available for young people's mental health treatment

0:47:33 > 0:47:36does vary dramatically from place to place, in Canterbury in average

0:47:36 > 0:47:39of £60 is spent on each child who uses CALMS but it is just

0:47:39 > 0:47:40£11 in Hastings.

0:47:40 > 0:47:43Our reporter Briony Williams has meant the young people from Kent

0:47:43 > 0:47:46who has managed to get help with their mental health problems

0:47:46 > 0:47:47but only thanks to a charity.

0:47:47 > 0:47:50Hi, my name is Matt, and when I was 13 I developed

0:47:50 > 0:47:51an eating problem.

0:47:51 > 0:47:53Hi, my name is Ollie, I suffer from severe anxiety

0:47:53 > 0:47:56and I used to punch walls as a way of coping.

0:47:56 > 0:47:59I am Will, I suffered with isolating myself and over exercising,

0:47:59 > 0:48:03and now I have learned that is not the best way to deal with it.

0:48:03 > 0:48:06Matt, Ollie and Will are all from Folkestone and have suffered

0:48:06 > 0:48:07with mental health problems.

0:48:07 > 0:48:10The impact on their lives has been enormous.

0:48:10 > 0:48:14If I had carried on going the way I was I would be a very unhealthy

0:48:14 > 0:48:17and maybe my career in sport would have been a lot shorter.

0:48:17 > 0:48:19Because I would have been over exercising

0:48:19 > 0:48:22and I would have burned out.

0:48:22 > 0:48:26If I got really worked up I would punch walls or kick out,

0:48:26 > 0:48:27kicks bins or something, stupid little petty

0:48:27 > 0:48:32things, easily avoidable.

0:48:32 > 0:48:35I was scared because I was scared of the judgment, I was not really

0:48:35 > 0:48:38getting it but if someone looked at me I would instantly

0:48:38 > 0:48:40think, do I look fat?

0:48:40 > 0:48:43Do I look awful?

0:48:43 > 0:48:44Why are they looking at me?

0:48:44 > 0:48:51And then sometimes I would just go without eating for days on end.

0:48:51 > 0:48:54But Matt Ollie and Will are not alone, in 2015 across the Southeast

0:48:54 > 0:48:57just under 47,000 young people where referred to child and

0:48:57 > 0:48:58adolescent mental health services.

0:48:58 > 0:49:01Around two thirds were put on a waiting list for treatment

0:49:01 > 0:49:11and just over 9000 were turned away.

0:49:12 > 0:49:15Not only that, many children wait a long time to be seen by mental

0:49:15 > 0:49:18health professionals and some just fall out of the system.

0:49:18 > 0:49:20A major report by the children's Commissioner for England published

0:49:20 > 0:49:22last month recommended young people's mental health services need

0:49:22 > 0:49:28a complete overhaul.

0:49:28 > 0:49:31The earlier you help someone, the earlier the offer support

0:49:31 > 0:49:33treatment, the it is, the shorter the long-term impact

0:49:33 > 0:49:37of that is going to be.

0:49:37 > 0:49:40Children tell me that they struggle to get support, that is either

0:49:40 > 0:49:43someone to talk to in the first instances where problems develop

0:49:43 > 0:49:45or indeed appointments and referrals into the more specialist CALMS.

0:49:45 > 0:49:48And research I undertook last year showed that actually even children

0:49:48 > 0:49:50with life-threatening conditions, a significant number of them,

0:49:50 > 0:49:59about 14%, where being turned away.

0:49:59 > 0:50:01When Theresa May became Prime Minister she stood

0:50:01 > 0:50:04on the steps of Downing Street and said she wanted to make mental

0:50:04 > 0:50:06health a priority and to fight the burning injustice that those

0:50:07 > 0:50:11with mental health problems face.

0:50:11 > 0:50:14In the past year, the NHS has spent an extra £100 million on mental

0:50:14 > 0:50:24health services for young people.

0:50:26 > 0:50:28But in a recent report by the health watchdog

0:50:28 > 0:50:30the Care Quality Commission, it made clear that services

0:50:30 > 0:50:33across the country are patchy so it makes it very difficult to tell

0:50:33 > 0:50:35whether vulnerable people in the south-east are getting

0:50:35 > 0:50:36the care that they need.

0:50:36 > 0:50:39If Matt, Ollie and Will had been referred to child and adolescent

0:50:39 > 0:50:42mental health services in Kent, they would have been turned away

0:50:42 > 0:50:44because there are issues were not severe enough.

0:50:44 > 0:50:47Instead they have all had help from the charity AdAction but has

0:50:47 > 0:50:49created its own schools programme to give early support

0:50:49 > 0:50:53to those suffering.

0:50:53 > 0:50:56I think at the moment there is a really big gap

0:50:56 > 0:50:58between what universal services can support in Kent and what specialist

0:50:58 > 0:51:01mental health services are picking up in terms of referrals for young

0:51:01 > 0:51:05people, what we are trying to do is to bring some of that gap,

0:51:05 > 0:51:08identify young people earlier rather than later so we can try and support

0:51:08 > 0:51:15them in the best way possible.

0:51:15 > 0:51:20It is majorly important that people like Addaction into schools

0:51:20 > 0:51:22because otherwise there are some people who you look

0:51:22 > 0:51:24at them and you think, oh, nothing is wrong with them,

0:51:24 > 0:51:26but inside they are deeply hurting.

0:51:26 > 0:51:28Having someone to talk to and being in the situation

0:51:28 > 0:51:32and talking about it is a big help because I have been able to feel

0:51:32 > 0:51:35comfortable about talking about mental health.

0:51:35 > 0:51:39Now I am happy with my friends, my life at school, my life at home

0:51:39 > 0:51:41and everything about it, and being able to talk about things

0:51:41 > 0:51:44comfortable as well and spreading the message and making sure that

0:51:44 > 0:51:47other, especially male teenagers are able to talk about things that

0:51:47 > 0:51:53might be going on in your life is a very rewarding feeling.

0:51:53 > 0:51:55Liam Collins, you work with children, young people,

0:51:55 > 0:51:58everyday, why do you think so many seem to be suffering

0:51:58 > 0:52:03from mental health problems?

0:52:03 > 0:52:06I think the pressure with young people is far greater than I can

0:52:06 > 0:52:09remember when I was a teenager, and just the simple fact of dealing

0:52:09 > 0:52:14with the pressures of exams, it seemed less important

0:52:14 > 0:52:18when I was in school to get the best exam results you could because there

0:52:18 > 0:52:20were lots of skilled options you could take, and that is

0:52:20 > 0:52:22part of the pressure.

0:52:22 > 0:52:25That pressure starts very early, you get students that arrive

0:52:25 > 0:52:28with others in year seven who are already anxious about exams

0:52:28 > 0:52:31after their SATS primary school, and on top of that, social media

0:52:31 > 0:52:34is clearly linked heavily to how students feel

0:52:34 > 0:52:38about themselves, about the pressure that they are under.

0:52:38 > 0:52:41That has just as much to do with reading how perfect someone

0:52:41 > 0:52:44else's life on social media is as it is about getting horrible

0:52:44 > 0:52:46comments about your own life on social media.

0:52:46 > 0:52:50I just think that everything is very heightened for young people now,

0:52:50 > 0:52:54and I think that we need to spend more time working with those young

0:52:54 > 0:52:56people, giving them out of the starting point

0:52:56 > 0:53:00for their own first aid about mental health.

0:53:00 > 0:53:02Helen, you run the parliament to grip on mental health

0:53:02 > 0:53:05and I know that you are, you have done a lot of thinking,

0:53:05 > 0:53:09perhaps none of us have really got the answers as to why it happens

0:53:09 > 0:53:11to so many young people, what do you think?

0:53:11 > 0:53:14I think this is very true, we don't understand enough

0:53:14 > 0:53:17about what is at the root of the rise in mental health

0:53:17 > 0:53:19problems with young people, we know that there are factors,

0:53:19 > 0:53:22we know that there is pressure at school and we know that social

0:53:22 > 0:53:24media is probably a factor, sleep deprivation, teachers talk

0:53:24 > 0:53:26about, lifestyle changes, problems at home, there could be

0:53:27 > 0:53:28many factors contributing to this.

0:53:28 > 0:53:31I think one of the things we have to do as a country is really

0:53:31 > 0:53:34understand what is at the root of the problem, what is causing

0:53:34 > 0:53:37the mental health problems will be make sure we take the right action

0:53:37 > 0:53:40as a country to help these kids.

0:53:40 > 0:53:42Do you want to add to that at all, Warren?

0:53:42 > 0:53:45I think one of the things that we see in Brighton and Hove

0:53:45 > 0:53:48is where you have an increase in poverty, and increase in in work

0:53:48 > 0:53:51poverty where families are working to the jobs to make ends meet,

0:53:51 > 0:53:54and those children are not getting the help and attention

0:53:54 > 0:53:58that they might need from their parents,

0:53:58 > 0:54:01so there are social factors in play here as well as social media,

0:54:01 > 0:54:04as well as the exam pressure.

0:54:04 > 0:54:07It is, located, isn't it?

0:54:07 > 0:54:09There is a desperate need for more funding.

0:54:09 > 0:54:13Liam, I must press you are the fact that the Lib Dem peer Baroness Darcy

0:54:13 > 0:54:15this week called for a dedicated councillor in every school.

0:54:15 > 0:54:19You have just let yours go school, why?

0:54:19 > 0:54:21Because we just can't afford them.

0:54:21 > 0:54:23It is a simple amount of money, the councillor cost us

0:54:23 > 0:54:28nearly £18,000 a year.

0:54:28 > 0:54:30I have to make a choice between having a teacher teaching

0:54:30 > 0:54:33a curriculum in a school or a counsellor so what we are doing

0:54:33 > 0:54:36is we are making sure that we still have a counsellor

0:54:36 > 0:54:40on the school site,, we use our hardship fund

0:54:40 > 0:54:42on the school site, we use our hardship fund

0:54:42 > 0:54:45which is where we raise money for that fund, to pay for students

0:54:45 > 0:54:47who can afford the counsellor and then we means test other

0:54:47 > 0:54:50students coming in.

0:54:50 > 0:54:52Coming back to social factors briefly, we talk about middle-class

0:54:52 > 0:54:55neglect in the school that I am at, parents are working very hard,

0:54:55 > 0:54:58they leave in the morning at five a:m., get the train to London,

0:54:58 > 0:55:01comeback at 8-9 o'clock at night, and the students also have a real

0:55:01 > 0:55:10issue in terms of having a close relationship with parents.

0:55:10 > 0:55:12Let's talk about the government respond at here.

0:55:12 > 0:55:14What people remember Theresa May about one year ago standing

0:55:14 > 0:55:17on the steps of Downing Street and talking about the fact

0:55:17 > 0:55:19that she wanted parity for mental health alongside

0:55:19 > 0:55:21physical health issues.

0:55:21 > 0:55:24Leading mental health charities not long ago I think it was a fortnight

0:55:24 > 0:55:27ago wrote a letter to ministers accusing the premise of sitting out

0:55:27 > 0:55:29an ambitious targets, they say services cannot go

0:55:29 > 0:55:34on with current levels of funding.

0:55:34 > 0:55:37People don't feel that she has lived up to that promise at all.

0:55:37 > 0:55:42People who work in this field.

0:55:42 > 0:55:45What I see and I spend a lot of time with people in the mental

0:55:45 > 0:55:47health campaign groups, whether it is Rethink, Mind,

0:55:47 > 0:55:49these organisations, they feel a lot is going on.

0:55:49 > 0:55:52To improve middle health.

0:55:52 > 0:55:55One of the things they Prime Minister did is she launched a seat

0:55:55 > 0:55:58you see review of mental health in young people, the first time that

0:55:58 > 0:56:01sort of thing has been done, which reported that in the summer

0:56:01 > 0:56:03and came back with similar conclusions to the children's

0:56:03 > 0:56:06Commissioner, that mental health services are not good enough,

0:56:06 > 0:56:08too patchy, not enough data.

0:56:08 > 0:56:11So doing something is getting someone to point out

0:56:11 > 0:56:13that it is terrible and not enough is being done?

0:56:13 > 0:56:16The starting point, one of the problems with mental health

0:56:16 > 0:56:18services for children and young people is a huge lack

0:56:18 > 0:56:21of data, that is one of the points of the children's

0:56:21 > 0:56:22Commissioners report.

0:56:22 > 0:56:24The introduced a set of metrics to start measuring

0:56:24 > 0:56:25but it is not enough.

0:56:25 > 0:56:31We do not enough evidence.

0:56:31 > 0:56:33And as it were talking about a moment ago there is not

0:56:33 > 0:56:36enough understanding of what is causing these

0:56:36 > 0:56:39problems, we must make sure we understand what is going on.

0:56:39 > 0:56:42Everyone is talking about the dangers of the wait

0:56:42 > 0:56:45for treatment, have you seen children who have had to wait long

0:56:45 > 0:56:46periods of time for referrals?

0:56:46 > 0:56:49Yes, we spent a lot of time talking to students about mental health

0:56:49 > 0:56:52and then we recognise students that have mental health problems

0:56:52 > 0:56:54and they are looking at 18 month waiting lists.

0:56:54 > 0:56:56To even get to CALMS.

0:56:56 > 0:56:57To even get to CAMS.

0:56:57 > 0:56:58Warren?

0:56:58 > 0:57:01Every day, every week, every month is too long a wait

0:57:01 > 0:57:04for a child who needs that support, who needs that well funded

0:57:04 > 0:57:05service to intervene.

0:57:05 > 0:57:07We have in Brighton and Hove, we have community mental health

0:57:07 > 0:57:09nurses going into primary and secondary schools

0:57:09 > 0:57:12to provide that help, we have campaigned like I am whole

0:57:12 > 0:57:14which encourage a challenge to the stigma of mental health,

0:57:14 > 0:57:17but we can't wait, we need funding in the budget to be able

0:57:17 > 0:57:19to support those services.

0:57:19 > 0:57:21In the report from the children's Commissioner, it said even children

0:57:21 > 0:57:24with life-threatening conditions, 14% of them are being turned away.

0:57:24 > 0:57:27We don't eat data or metrics to note that that is wrong,

0:57:27 > 0:57:31and something needs to be done about it.

0:57:31 > 0:57:35Certainly we need action to be taken out of the two provide prompt

0:57:35 > 0:57:37services to children and as you say the waiting times are

0:57:37 > 0:57:39just not acceptable, whether it is life-threatening

0:57:39 > 0:57:42or some of the long waiting times for instance for autism diagnosis,

0:57:42 > 0:57:45so we need action taken quickly and it is not just about

0:57:45 > 0:57:47the money, there is a whole workforce challenge here.

0:57:47 > 0:57:49And I know that the local children and adolescent mental health

0:57:49 > 0:57:51service known as CALMS, they are working really

0:57:51 > 0:57:54hard on making sure that they have the workforce

0:57:54 > 0:57:56and are training people up to provide middle health care,

0:57:56 > 0:58:03it is not just money, it is having the people to do it.

0:58:03 > 0:58:06Liam, at this point, thank you so much for joining us

0:58:06 > 0:58:08to talk about your school and children's mental health,

0:58:08 > 0:58:11it has been really lovely to have you with us on the programme today.

0:58:11 > 0:58:12Thank you.

0:58:12 > 0:58:15Now we move on to a story that Helen is going to talk

0:58:15 > 0:58:18to as a little bit about, can Kent hope with

0:58:18 > 0:58:22more Operation Stack?

0:58:22 > 0:58:24Thousands of lorries blocking the M20 when there are delays

0:58:24 > 0:58:25at Dover for Eurotunnel.

0:58:25 > 0:58:29We might have to cope with more of it, the government has withdrawn

0:58:29 > 0:58:31plans for a huge lorry parked near Hyde which was supposed

0:58:31 > 0:58:32to solve the problem.

0:58:32 > 0:58:35Here is a flavour of the reaction to that decision.

0:58:35 > 0:58:37This was only ever a knee jerk political decision,

0:58:37 > 0:58:40because at the time of July 2015, that summer of Operation Stack,

0:58:40 > 0:58:42the governments did not like seeing it in the news.

0:58:42 > 0:58:51They just needed to listen to what the solutions

0:58:51 > 0:58:53were at the solutions are to have an integrated suite

0:58:53 > 0:58:55of solutions to deal with Operation Stack,

0:58:55 > 0:58:56not one bit lorry park.

0:58:56 > 0:58:57It is fantastic news.

0:58:57 > 0:59:00It is good news for the people of Stanford and it is good news

0:59:00 > 0:59:03for common sense because we have said from the start

0:59:03 > 0:59:06that the thing would never work.

0:59:06 > 0:59:08We need further action quickly to make sure that Operation Stack

0:59:08 > 0:59:10is managed as well as possible.

0:59:10 > 0:59:13It has had a huge impact on our industry and the people

0:59:13 > 0:59:16of Kent in the past that it has got to get better.

0:59:16 > 0:59:19So some of the villagers nearby delighted, that the road haulage

0:59:19 > 0:59:22people are not impressed at all, and we saw some of those pictures.

0:59:22 > 0:59:25This does mean more Operation Stack the minute everything goes wrong

0:59:25 > 0:59:27at Dover and Eurotunnel, that is the only solution.

0:59:27 > 0:59:30My position on it is that we cannot go back to what we had

0:59:30 > 0:59:33in the summer of 2015, we cannot have the M20 closed

0:59:33 > 0:59:35and Kent at a standstill, which was a nightmare

0:59:35 > 0:59:37whether it was for people getting their kids to school,

0:59:37 > 0:59:39getting to hospital, businesses, we cannot

0:59:39 > 0:59:44have that again.

0:59:44 > 0:59:47I know the government tried to do the best they could and fast forward

0:59:47 > 0:59:50having a lorry park and that has not worked out.

0:59:50 > 0:59:55We can't let the government off the hook that easily,

0:59:55 > 0:59:58they clearly did not do the job properly because if they had it

0:59:58 > 1:00:00would not have had the financial obligations on back interfaces.

1:00:00 > 1:00:03This was a mess up, I nearly said something more rude

1:00:03 > 1:00:07by the government, wasn't it?

1:00:07 > 1:00:10I know they were tied to do it as quickly as possible,

1:00:10 > 1:00:13it was always going to be very difficult to do such a major thing.

1:00:14 > 1:00:15How much money has been wasted?

1:00:15 > 1:00:18Some people have said £15 million on getting to the point

1:00:18 > 1:00:21where they have had to say actually be can't do it after all.

1:00:21 > 1:00:23The key thing is they have recognised they cannot defend this

1:00:23 > 1:00:26judicial review in the moving on and there are two things

1:00:26 > 1:00:30that they are moving on to do.

1:00:30 > 1:00:33One is beginning the process to go through the proper planning process

1:00:33 > 1:00:36so we can have the lorry holding areas that we need and the other

1:00:36 > 1:00:38is there are much more innovative solutions being talked

1:00:38 > 1:00:41about and I am reassured by this, that if we have to use

1:00:41 > 1:00:43the M20 for lorries, if that should happen,

1:00:43 > 1:00:46we can keep it flowing to ways which is what we want.

1:00:46 > 1:00:48We have heard about movable barriers but all of that

1:00:48 > 1:00:50is going to take time.

1:00:50 > 1:00:51Let's talk about March 2019.

1:00:51 > 1:00:54We are supposed to be leaving the EU and if there is,

1:00:54 > 1:00:57and there clearly is at the moment, it does not look like there will be

1:00:57 > 1:01:00any contingency in place, you have heard the select committee

1:01:00 > 1:01:02this week talking about Operation Stack on steroids.

1:01:02 > 1:01:06It will be so bad if there is a mess up at the port if there are problems

1:01:06 > 1:01:08with customs that we have not seen anything yet.

1:01:08 > 1:01:09Clearly that would be absolutely unacceptable.

1:01:09 > 1:01:12My colleague Charlie Elphick deserves some credit for this,

1:01:12 > 1:01:15he has been doing a huge amount of work pushing the government

1:01:15 > 1:01:18to make sure they are looking at the processes at Dover

1:01:18 > 1:01:21and the customs and to make sure that, Brexit date we have

1:01:21 > 1:01:22smoothly flowing traffic.

1:01:22 > 1:01:25We don't have that long to wait until that.

1:01:25 > 1:01:27Thank you both and thank you to Warren and Helen.

1:01:27 > 1:01:28That is it for this week.

1:01:28 > 1:01:31We will be back next week with all of the news and chat

1:01:39 > 1:01:41Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:41 > 1:01:45he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:45 > 1:01:47hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes

1:01:47 > 1:01:48of the public.

1:01:48 > 1:01:52But when it comes to the economy, do people trust

1:01:52 > 1:01:53the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:53 > 1:01:58Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.

1:01:58 > 1:02:06MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.

1:02:06 > 1:02:08All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out

1:02:08 > 1:02:11what he has been cooking up in his Budget.

1:02:11 > 1:02:14So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:14 > 1:02:17who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,

1:02:17 > 1:02:24Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:24 > 1:02:27No 7.

1:02:27 > 1:02:32Which one's Tory?

1:02:38 > 1:02:40I voted Conservative for the last two

1:02:40 > 1:02:45elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:45 > 1:02:47If I said to you which of these characters

1:02:47 > 1:02:49would you trust with the economy, what would you say?

1:02:49 > 1:02:51The one who's currently running it, because they

1:02:51 > 1:02:53seem to be bringing the deficit down.

1:02:53 > 1:02:54Labour.

1:02:54 > 1:02:55Why?

1:02:55 > 1:02:58Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:58 > 1:03:01For me, it's just about spending, public spending.

1:03:01 > 1:03:06Labour always overspend.

1:03:06 > 1:03:12John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:12 > 1:03:17and I think we need a radical re-think.

1:03:17 > 1:03:19Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:19 > 1:03:20No one.

1:03:20 > 1:03:23Why?

1:03:23 > 1:03:28Because they never come up trumps with anything that they

1:03:28 > 1:03:29reckon they're going to do.

1:03:29 > 1:03:32If I had to make you choose one of them?

1:03:32 > 1:03:33The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:33 > 1:03:35I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a

1:03:35 > 1:03:41bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:41 > 1:03:42Hello, Bob.

1:03:42 > 1:03:43Oh, hello.

1:03:43 > 1:03:45Who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:45 > 1:03:46Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:46 > 1:03:47Do you? Why's that?

1:03:47 > 1:03:50I just think they're better for the small businessman.

1:03:50 > 1:03:52We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,

1:03:52 > 1:03:55somebody in there with balls to say, right,

1:03:55 > 1:03:56that's the direction we are

1:03:56 > 1:03:59going in, that's what we are going to do.

1:03:59 > 1:04:01I've got balls!

1:04:01 > 1:04:02What are you doing?

1:04:02 > 1:04:09Putting balls in holes by the look of it!

1:04:09 > 1:04:12I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:12 > 1:04:15but I say that without a great deal of conviction.

1:04:15 > 1:04:18Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the

1:04:18 > 1:04:19streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:19 > 1:04:23Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money

1:04:23 > 1:04:29and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.

1:04:29 > 1:04:32I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it

1:04:32 > 1:04:35is clearing up time here at the diner and time

1:04:35 > 1:04:37to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:37 > 1:04:39Take it away, Tim.

1:04:39 > 1:04:42As you can say it was a close-run thing, but

1:04:42 > 1:04:44like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:44 > 1:04:51counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:51 > 1:04:55Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:55 > 1:04:57That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:57 > 1:04:59at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.

1:04:59 > 1:05:02But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view

1:05:02 > 1:05:05the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look

1:05:05 > 1:05:06at some recent polling.

1:05:06 > 1:05:09Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:09 > 1:05:12when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,

1:05:12 > 1:05:15when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many

1:05:15 > 1:05:17other areas.

1:05:17 > 1:05:20The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:20 > 1:05:23the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,

1:05:23 > 1:05:28although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:28 > 1:05:31And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:31 > 1:05:37showing that while the gap between Theresa May

1:05:37 > 1:05:39and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election

1:05:39 > 1:05:41period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,

1:05:41 > 1:05:43still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or

1:05:43 > 1:05:44even slightly ahead.

1:05:44 > 1:05:46And when it comes to how people intend to vote

1:05:46 > 1:05:49while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a

1:05:49 > 1:05:51big Labour lead yet.

1:05:51 > 1:05:53Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"

1:05:53 > 1:05:57inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:57 > 1:06:0010 or 15 points ahead.

1:06:00 > 1:06:03Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:06:03 > 1:06:06and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely

1:06:06 > 1:06:12wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?

1:06:12 > 1:06:20Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:20 > 1:06:25economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:25 > 1:06:32Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:32 > 1:06:35of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:35 > 1:06:41imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national

1:06:41 > 1:06:43security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:43 > 1:06:48circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:48 > 1:06:54for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:54 > 1:07:00and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We

1:07:00 > 1:07:06underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:06 > 1:07:11Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The

1:07:11 > 1:07:15government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:15 > 1:07:19resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:19 > 1:07:23people are having a really tough time and looking at the government

1:07:23 > 1:07:27to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems

1:07:27 > 1:07:35to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:35 > 1:07:40Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I

1:07:40 > 1:07:44think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:44 > 1:07:47Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they

1:07:47 > 1:07:53have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:53 > 1:08:00had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:08:00 > 1:08:06They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.

1:08:06 > 1:08:11Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:11 > 1:08:16build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think

1:08:16 > 1:08:21they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:21 > 1:08:26next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:26 > 1:08:30fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:30 > 1:08:34of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:34 > 1:08:39certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very

1:08:39 > 1:08:44well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I

1:08:44 > 1:08:49am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:49 > 1:08:57that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:57 > 1:09:04Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:09:04 > 1:09:07Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:07 > 1:09:14to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:14 > 1:09:18despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:18 > 1:09:24the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have

1:09:24 > 1:09:31just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that

1:09:31 > 1:09:35Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:35 > 1:09:41Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:41 > 1:09:48people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have

1:09:48 > 1:09:52to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context

1:09:52 > 1:10:00of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future

1:10:00 > 1:10:10unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,

1:10:10 > 1:10:16unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that

1:10:16 > 1:10:20against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think

1:10:20 > 1:10:24about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:24 > 1:10:28they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they

1:10:28 > 1:10:33have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:33 > 1:10:39a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:39 > 1:10:43this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be

1:10:43 > 1:10:48talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:48 > 1:10:51you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:51 > 1:10:58the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:58 > 1:11:01ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:11:01 > 1:11:06They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they

1:11:06 > 1:11:11offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December

1:11:11 > 1:11:14council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:14 > 1:11:20conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get

1:11:20 > 1:11:25that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:25 > 1:11:27revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:27 > 1:11:37more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:37 > 1:11:42as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:42 > 1:11:50keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:50 > 1:11:57Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested

1:11:57 > 1:12:03that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's

1:12:03 > 1:12:07another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime

1:12:07 > 1:12:13Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:13 > 1:12:17strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where

1:12:17 > 1:12:23we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:23 > 1:12:27European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on

1:12:27 > 1:12:40it until we are satisfied with the next

1:12:46 > 1:12:48stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:48 > 1:12:51could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that

1:12:51 > 1:12:53might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:53 > 1:12:56not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the

1:12:56 > 1:12:58astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:58 > 1:13:02going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the

1:13:02 > 1:13:07negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in

1:13:07 > 1:13:10terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will

1:13:10 > 1:13:15look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,

1:13:15 > 1:13:21but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:21 > 1:13:24Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each

1:13:24 > 1:13:29other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.

1:13:29 > 1:13:31That's all for today.

1:13:31 > 1:13:33Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:33 > 1:13:37Until then, bye bye.