:00:39. > :00:45.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:46. > :00:50.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%
:00:51. > :00:56.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:57. > :01:01.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:02. > :01:06.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:07. > :01:12.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed
:01:13. > :01:16.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:17. > :01:24.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by
:01:25. > :01:29.And in the South West: The battle to cope with a rising tide of dementia.
:01:30. > :01:30.And is the Chancellor boosting our town centres and small businesses or
:01:31. > :01:32.failing working people? had on the capital, its politics and
:01:33. > :01:48.those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal
:01:49. > :01:51.students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all
:01:52. > :01:54.we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be
:01:55. > :01:58.glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we
:01:59. > :02:03.are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet
:02:04. > :02:08.something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,
:02:09. > :02:12.Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,
:02:13. > :02:16.the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,
:02:17. > :02:20.thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.
:02:21. > :02:27.The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's
:02:28. > :02:29.Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity
:02:30. > :02:42.to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in
:02:43. > :02:51.the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a
:02:52. > :02:54.moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these
:02:55. > :02:57.statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than
:02:58. > :03:01.everyone predicted. This time, he can stand up and say the economy is
:03:02. > :03:07.better than everybody predicted. A lot better.
:03:08. > :03:16.Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced
:03:17. > :03:20.economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,
:03:21. > :03:24.faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there
:03:25. > :03:29.were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,
:03:30. > :03:33.borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.
:03:34. > :03:38.But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough
:03:39. > :03:42.decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We
:03:43. > :03:46.will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the
:03:47. > :03:54.harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In
:03:55. > :04:00.other news, further cuts to government departments. The state
:04:01. > :04:04.pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s
:04:05. > :04:09.now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small
:04:10. > :04:12.businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,
:04:13. > :04:17.and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all
:04:18. > :04:21.big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.
:04:22. > :04:27.The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he
:04:28. > :04:33.could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes
:04:34. > :04:36.out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't
:04:37. > :04:40.think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I
:04:41. > :04:46.am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There
:04:47. > :04:51.is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday
:04:52. > :04:56.Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?
:04:57. > :05:03.In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a
:05:04. > :05:09.red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more
:05:10. > :05:14.than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying
:05:15. > :05:18.about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in
:05:19. > :05:21.terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting
:05:22. > :05:29.the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was
:05:30. > :05:33.very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last
:05:34. > :05:37.time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by
:05:38. > :05:43.now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to
:05:44. > :05:48.hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the
:05:49. > :05:51.Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are
:05:52. > :05:54.significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be
:05:55. > :05:58.just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also
:05:59. > :06:02.worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been
:06:03. > :06:10.revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of
:06:11. > :06:13.budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very
:06:14. > :06:17.much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that
:06:18. > :06:20.it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the
:06:21. > :06:25.years after the next general election. As the day draws to a
:06:26. > :06:28.close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the
:06:29. > :06:38.graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it
:06:39. > :06:42.gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday
:06:43. > :06:50.Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.
:06:51. > :06:54.Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed
:06:55. > :06:59.Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a
:07:00. > :07:03.consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At
:07:04. > :07:07.the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first
:07:08. > :07:11.time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the
:07:12. > :07:15.baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,
:07:16. > :07:19.nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by
:07:20. > :07:28.Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview
:07:29. > :07:32.this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate
:07:33. > :07:39.Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang
:07:40. > :07:42.onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories
:07:43. > :07:48.hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at
:07:49. > :07:51.someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that
:07:52. > :07:54.doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people
:07:55. > :07:59.thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the
:08:00. > :08:04.main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he
:08:05. > :08:07.can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it
:08:08. > :08:14.were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John
:08:15. > :08:22.Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a
:08:23. > :08:25.good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because
:08:26. > :08:32.he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's
:08:33. > :08:37.much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told
:08:38. > :08:44.he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,
:08:45. > :08:47.to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,
:08:48. > :08:53.after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.
:08:54. > :08:57.Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the
:08:58. > :09:00.referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the
:09:01. > :09:04.press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following
:09:05. > :09:07.the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one
:09:08. > :09:11.interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano
:09:12. > :09:15.recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after
:09:16. > :09:20.your job. How bad was his performance on Thursday? Here is the
:09:21. > :09:27.Shadow Chancellor in action. The Chancellor is incomplete denial
:09:28. > :09:31.about the central facts that are defining this government in office.
:09:32. > :09:41.He used to say he would balance the books in 2015. Now he wants us to
:09:42. > :09:49.congratulate him for saying he will do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this
:09:50. > :09:52.government, it is clearly not just the badgers that move the goalposts.
:09:53. > :10:06.No mention of the universal credit in the statement. IDS, in deep
:10:07. > :10:09.shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the
:10:10. > :10:17.Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy, in other words. Why do more and more
:10:18. > :10:22.of your Labour colleagues think that your boss is below the water line?
:10:23. > :10:26.I'm not sure I accept the premise of your suggestion. I don't think my
:10:27. > :10:31.colleagues believe that George Osborne has a superior argument. I
:10:32. > :10:34.think Ed Balls will certainly trying his best, loud and clear, to make
:10:35. > :10:38.the case there is a cost of living crisis in this country and the
:10:39. > :10:42.Chancellor doesn't understand this. That was essentially the heat of the
:10:43. > :10:46.debate on the Autumn Statement day. One leading Labour MPs said to me
:10:47. > :10:51.that Ed Balls is always looking back, fixated with the rear-view
:10:52. > :10:55.mirror, that was the exact quote. A Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has
:10:56. > :11:01.a strong argument to make, unfortunately it was not made well
:11:02. > :11:09.in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor
:11:10. > :11:15.performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four
:11:16. > :11:20.letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former
:11:21. > :11:23.Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public
:11:24. > :11:27.spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a
:11:28. > :11:33.battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple
:11:34. > :11:36.were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's
:11:37. > :11:42.fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,
:11:43. > :11:54.nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We
:11:55. > :11:57.have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of
:11:58. > :12:02.evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was
:12:03. > :12:07.making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not
:12:08. > :12:11.have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are
:12:12. > :12:15.concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are
:12:16. > :12:18.getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn
:12:19. > :12:27.Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very
:12:28. > :12:31.big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is
:12:32. > :12:35.setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.
:12:36. > :12:39.What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of
:12:40. > :12:42.measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If
:12:43. > :12:46.you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to
:12:47. > :12:51.get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of
:12:52. > :12:55.doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's
:12:56. > :13:00.investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our
:13:01. > :13:12.economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen
:13:13. > :13:15.a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.
:13:16. > :13:20.Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.
:13:21. > :13:24.That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above
:13:25. > :13:29.all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing
:13:30. > :13:35.to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare
:13:36. > :13:38.cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.
:13:39. > :13:44.You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,
:13:45. > :13:49.correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are
:13:50. > :13:52.going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not
:13:53. > :13:59.include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare
:14:00. > :14:03.cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not
:14:04. > :14:09.in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good
:14:10. > :14:12.idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare
:14:13. > :14:14.issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be
:14:15. > :14:19.sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the
:14:20. > :14:25.careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme
:14:26. > :14:28.at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real
:14:29. > :14:33.question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.
:14:34. > :14:37.I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our
:14:38. > :14:42.plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the
:14:43. > :14:46.welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the
:14:47. > :14:52.long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare
:14:53. > :14:55.issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will
:14:56. > :15:02.not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the
:15:03. > :15:09.Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 2015?
:15:10. > :15:13.We want to stick with the triple lock on the pension, that is the
:15:14. > :15:17.Government approach to their short-term welfare cap. In the
:15:18. > :15:23.longer term, for example, on the winter fuel allowance, we should not
:15:24. > :15:27.necessarily be... There are lots of benefits... I understand that, I am
:15:28. > :15:32.talking about the basic state pension, is that part of your
:15:33. > :15:42.welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40 year frame... Even you will not be
:15:43. > :15:47.around in government, then. You are writing me off already. You have to
:15:48. > :15:50.focus on welfare changes, pensions have to be affordable as part of
:15:51. > :15:54.that. It's dangerous to say, well, if you are going to have a serious
:15:55. > :16:00.welfare cap, we should not look at pensions cost. It would be
:16:01. > :16:06.irresponsible. Will pensions be part of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if
:16:07. > :16:14.Labour is in power? In our long-term cap we have to make sure... I'm
:16:15. > :16:16.talking about 2015-16. We haven't seen the proposition the Government
:16:17. > :16:29.has put before us. You claim people of ?1600 worse off
:16:30. > :16:33.under the coalition. That is true when you compare to pay and prices.
:16:34. > :16:39.Can you confirm that calculation does not include the ?700 tax cut
:16:40. > :16:44.from raising the income tax threshold, huge savings on mortgages
:16:45. > :16:48.because of low interest or the freezing of council tax? It doesn't
:16:49. > :16:53.include the tax and benefit changes. If you do want to look at
:16:54. > :16:59.those, last year, the ISS said they could be making people worse off. It
:17:00. > :17:09.might not include those factors. The VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child
:17:10. > :17:13.benefit cuts, they all add up. My understanding is that the ISS
:17:14. > :17:19.figures have said people are ?891 worse off if you look at the tax and
:17:20. > :17:25.benefit changes since 2010. You have to look at wages and prices. The ISS
:17:26. > :17:28.confirmed our approach was broadly the right way of assessing what is
:17:29. > :17:36.happening. The Chancellor was saying, real household disposable
:17:37. > :17:42.incomes are rising. He is completely out of touch. Can you sum up the
:17:43. > :17:47.macro economic policy for Labour? Invest in the future, make sure we
:17:48. > :17:49.have the right approach for the long-term politicking. Tackle the
:17:50. > :17:53.cost of living crisis people are facing.
:17:54. > :17:59.Now, let's talk to the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid
:18:00. > :18:06.Javid. Discovery, underpinned by rising
:18:07. > :18:11.house prices, increasing personal debt, do you accept that is
:18:12. > :18:16.unsustainable? I accept the OBE are also said the
:18:17. > :18:24.reason why this country is facing more these challenges -- OBR.
:18:25. > :18:30.That is because we went through a Labour recession, the worst we have
:18:31. > :18:37.seen in 100 years. But do you accept that a recovery underpinned by these
:18:38. > :18:42.things I have just read out isn't sustainable? We set out a long-term
:18:43. > :18:48.plan for recovery, and again this week. We have shown with the tough
:18:49. > :18:52.decisions we have made already, the country can enjoy a recovery. There
:18:53. > :18:58.are still a lot of difficult decisions. The biggest risk are
:18:59. > :19:07.Labour's plans. The March projections work at for those -- for
:19:08. > :19:13.both business investment and exports. Suddenly it is expected to
:19:14. > :19:18.rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround in investment. How is it credible? I
:19:19. > :19:22.have been in business before politics. Any business person
:19:23. > :19:27.listening will know, when you have gone through a recession, the
:19:28. > :19:33.deepest in 100 years, it will hit investment, profits, you can't make
:19:34. > :19:35.plans again until you have confidence in the economy. That is
:19:36. > :19:46.what this country is seeing now under this government. This is an
:19:47. > :19:51.assumption made independently. The fall in business investment is
:19:52. > :19:57.because of the recession. The forecast increases, 5% next year,
:19:58. > :20:03.and so on, it is based on the independent forecast. Based on fact.
:20:04. > :20:12.If you look at the investment plans of companies, this week, the
:20:13. > :20:16.Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land Rover has plans to create more
:20:17. > :20:20.jobs, these investment plans are coming through now because of the
:20:21. > :20:24.confidence generated by this government, such as the cut in
:20:25. > :20:32.corporation tax which Labour would increase. Are the export forecasts
:20:33. > :20:38.more credible? The 15 years, our share of world trade decline.
:20:39. > :20:44.Suddenly starting next year, it stops falling. That's not credible.
:20:45. > :20:52.I worked in finance the 20 years. I have yet to find any forecast which
:20:53. > :20:57.is fully right. Under Labour, we would have forecasts made by Gordon
:20:58. > :21:01.Brown who would announce he would hit all his targets. Now we have an
:21:02. > :21:08.independent system. Do you accept, if exports or
:21:09. > :21:14.business investment do not pick up, then a purely consumer led recovery
:21:15. > :21:18.is not sustainable? We need more than a consumer led recovery. We
:21:19. > :21:25.need consumer investment to go up. On Xbox, it is noticeable that
:21:26. > :21:30.experts are primarily down because the markets we trade with, the
:21:31. > :21:34.eurozone markets, are depressed. Many have just come out of
:21:35. > :21:42.recession. Or they are still in recession. If you look at exports to
:21:43. > :21:49.non-EU countries, they are up 30%. 120% to China. 100% to Russia.
:21:50. > :21:57.Will you keep the triple lock for the state pension beyond 2015? Yes,
:21:58. > :22:01.long term. That's why it is not part of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie
:22:02. > :22:10.cannot answer that question. It is straightforward.
:22:11. > :22:16.House prices are now rising ten times faster than average earnings.
:22:17. > :22:21.That's not good. House prices are rising, partly reflecting recovery.
:22:22. > :22:26.Ten times faster than average earnings, how can people afford to
:22:27. > :22:31.buy homes if it carries on? What you would hope, this is the evidence, if
:22:32. > :22:38.you look at the plans of the month companies, they are planning new
:22:39. > :22:42.homes which will mean that, as this demand spurs that investment, more
:22:43. > :22:46.homes will come about. We need to give people the means to buy those
:22:47. > :23:34.homes. We have introduced the help to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says
:23:35. > :23:50.it will start rising again but as household debt rises again Petr Cech
:23:51. > :23:55.reduces, -- as household debt reduces, we need to make sure there
:23:56. > :23:59.are checks in place. Wages have not been rising in real terms for quite
:24:00. > :24:15.some time. Over the next five years, even as the economy grows, by about
:24:16. > :24:21.15% according the OBR to the OBR -- but people will not benefit. These
:24:22. > :24:27.hard-working families will not share in the recovery. What is the best
:24:28. > :24:31.way to help those families? The government doesn't set wages. What
:24:32. > :24:41.we can do is influence the overall economy. We don't have a magic
:24:42. > :24:45.lever. Wages have been stagnating for five years. When will people get
:24:46. > :24:52.a proper salary? The best way for wage growth is a growing economy,
:24:53. > :24:57.more jobs. We have more people employed in Britain today than at
:24:58. > :25:03.any time in our history. The biggest risk to recovery is if we let Labour
:25:04. > :25:06.into the Treasury with more spending and more debt. Which got us into
:25:07. > :25:14.this trouble. By whatever measure you care to choose, would people be
:25:15. > :25:21.better off come the 20 15th election than they were in 2010? Yes, they
:25:22. > :25:25.will be. Look at jobs. Already more people employed than at any other
:25:26. > :25:30.time in history. Will they be better off? The best way for anyone to
:25:31. > :25:37.raise their living standards is access to a growing job market. But
:25:38. > :25:45.will they be better off? I believe people will be. Compared to 2010.
:25:46. > :25:48.Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This is a credible measure.
:25:49. > :25:53.Now, what do you think the Education Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at
:25:54. > :25:56.school? Hard-working? Hand always up? Top of the class? Well, if he
:25:57. > :26:00.wasn't passionate about education then, he is now. In fact, since he
:26:01. > :26:07.took office, it seems he hasn't stopped working very hard indeed.
:26:08. > :26:10.When the coalition came to power, Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they
:26:11. > :26:13.were on a long march to reform education. Just like Mao, they faced
:26:14. > :26:19.a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion for new school places. They extended
:26:20. > :26:24.Labour's academy programme. There's now about 3,000 in England. But
:26:25. > :26:27.then, they marched even further, creating free schools run by
:26:28. > :26:34.parents, funded by taxpayers. 174 have opened so far. The schools
:26:35. > :26:37.admission code was changed, to give parents more choice.
:26:38. > :26:40.And a pupil premium was introduced, currently, an extra ?900 funding for
:26:41. > :26:44.each disadvantaged child. An overhaul of the national
:26:45. > :26:49.curriculum provoked criticism. Chairman Gove mocked detractors as
:26:50. > :26:55."bad academia". But exam reforms didn't quite go to plan. Although
:26:56. > :26:59.GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.
:27:00. > :27:04.Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the
:27:05. > :27:07.classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up
:27:08. > :27:10.to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of
:27:11. > :27:16.Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.
:27:17. > :27:20.Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even
:27:21. > :27:26.allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are
:27:27. > :27:31.stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the
:27:32. > :27:42.system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we
:27:43. > :27:47.changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,
:27:48. > :27:51.satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and
:27:52. > :27:54.schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing
:27:55. > :27:59.gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the
:28:00. > :28:06.OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a
:28:07. > :28:11.minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or
:28:12. > :28:16.even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our
:28:17. > :28:21.domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece
:28:22. > :28:25.of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there
:28:26. > :28:31.a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak
:28:32. > :28:36.as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is
:28:37. > :28:46.actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is
:28:47. > :28:51.about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists
:28:52. > :28:56.conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things
:28:57. > :29:00.are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters
:29:01. > :29:09.were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th
:29:10. > :29:14.for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,
:29:15. > :29:19.Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or
:29:20. > :29:24.outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this
:29:25. > :29:27.level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last
:29:28. > :29:34.years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,
:29:35. > :29:39.absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.
:29:40. > :29:43.Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is
:29:44. > :29:44.making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually
:29:45. > :29:55.translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much
:29:56. > :29:59.up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good
:30:00. > :30:05.enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in
:30:06. > :30:09.GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The
:30:10. > :30:13.Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In
:30:14. > :30:16.opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was
:30:17. > :30:24.done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why
:30:25. > :30:28.are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I
:30:29. > :30:33.actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that
:30:34. > :30:37.if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the
:30:38. > :30:42.ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the
:30:43. > :30:47.playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used
:30:48. > :30:52.to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,
:30:53. > :30:54.you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower
:30:55. > :31:00.those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and
:31:01. > :31:03.freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local
:31:04. > :31:07.authority schools to become academies and new free school czar
:31:08. > :31:10.being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same
:31:11. > :31:15.level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the
:31:16. > :31:19.evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better
:31:20. > :31:25.than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they
:31:26. > :31:28.might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about
:31:29. > :31:32.this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored
:31:33. > :31:36.academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most
:31:37. > :31:42.difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing
:31:43. > :31:49.much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the
:31:50. > :31:53.lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better
:31:54. > :31:59.than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the
:32:00. > :32:09.world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming
:32:10. > :32:12.to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they
:32:13. > :32:17.spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as
:32:18. > :32:23.possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with
:32:24. > :32:27.those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a
:32:28. > :32:30.European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of
:32:31. > :32:35.the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn
:32:36. > :32:39.from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest
:32:40. > :32:45.in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have
:32:46. > :32:49.the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the
:32:50. > :32:53.classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,
:32:54. > :33:01.disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers
:33:02. > :33:05.doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from
:33:06. > :33:08.that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government
:33:09. > :33:13.education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am
:33:14. > :33:19.independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right
:33:20. > :33:23.things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you
:33:24. > :33:27.are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.
:33:28. > :33:31.Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a
:33:32. > :33:36.pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become
:33:37. > :33:42.better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going
:33:43. > :33:45.to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do
:33:46. > :33:49.better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will
:33:50. > :33:53.also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many
:33:54. > :33:56.people in the education establishment think your primary
:33:57. > :34:03.purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into
:34:04. > :34:08.becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of
:34:09. > :34:11.academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are
:34:12. > :34:15.the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I
:34:16. > :34:23.am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see
:34:24. > :34:29.academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The
:34:30. > :34:35.study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise
:34:36. > :34:38.standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school
:34:39. > :34:42.leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody
:34:43. > :34:47.with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot
:34:48. > :34:50.air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be
:34:51. > :34:53.qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold
:34:54. > :35:02.standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons
:35:03. > :35:06.that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified
:35:07. > :35:10.teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed
:35:11. > :35:14.by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is
:35:15. > :35:17.to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to
:35:18. > :35:22.scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified
:35:23. > :35:27.teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or
:35:28. > :35:29.modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from
:35:30. > :35:32.university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could
:35:33. > :35:36.communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the
:35:37. > :35:41.classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are
:35:42. > :35:44.going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to
:35:45. > :35:50.local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...
:35:51. > :35:54.New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.
:35:55. > :36:02.Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been
:36:03. > :36:06.examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and
:36:07. > :36:10.children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the
:36:11. > :36:12.secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about
:36:13. > :36:16.over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a
:36:17. > :36:21.school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new
:36:22. > :36:26.category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it
:36:27. > :36:30.improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That
:36:31. > :36:34.is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted should pay a much greater part in
:36:35. > :36:39.monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.
:36:40. > :36:45.Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a
:36:46. > :36:51.tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.
:36:52. > :36:55.You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,
:36:56. > :37:14.Diane Abbott will be joining us. And we
:37:15. > :37:20.Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. Coming up on the Sunday Politics in the South
:37:21. > :37:23.West: The Government says half the dementia cases in the region aren't
:37:24. > :37:26.being picked up by the NHS and the disease is relentlessly increasing.
:37:27. > :37:35.I would walk around and try to ask to go home. I don't live here. I
:37:36. > :37:38.don't recognise my wife. And for the next 20 minutes, I'm
:37:39. > :37:41.joined by Ben Bradshaw, the Labour MP for Exeter, and Sarah Wollaston,
:37:42. > :37:44.Conservative MP for Totnes. The story that's dominated headlines
:37:45. > :37:47.everywhere this week is, of course, the death of the former South
:37:48. > :37:50.African president and freedom fighter Nelson Mandela. I think you
:37:51. > :37:57.tweeted, Ben, that you got into politics because of the apartheid. I
:37:58. > :38:01.got involved in a letter writing campaign for Amnesty International
:38:02. > :38:08.to the South African press calling for Northland Mandela's release. ``
:38:09. > :38:17.Nelson Mandela. One of them was published in a South African
:38:18. > :38:22.newspaper. I got a deluge of reaction saying, why are you
:38:23. > :38:27.interfering? I got a taste of what political activism can achieve. Did
:38:28. > :38:34.you get to meet him? I never met him 121. I remember his historic visit
:38:35. > :38:39.to the Labour Party conference in 2000. For many people of our
:38:40. > :38:43.generation, we got involved in politics because of the
:38:44. > :38:47.anti`apartheid antiracism movement that he symbolised many of us never
:38:48. > :38:51.thought he would you free to lead a free South Africa. He came to the
:38:52. > :38:57.conference and got a choice reception. For many of us, he was an
:38:58. > :39:09.inspiration `` eight to mulch was reception. I do not think you at key
:39:10. > :39:13.nontribal politics, Sarah. He was a symbol of courage, dignity and
:39:14. > :39:18.forgiveness. What he brought, to save South Africa from Civil War and
:39:19. > :39:25.his extraordinary achievements and to have suffered as he did, 27 years
:39:26. > :39:29.in prison, much of that and a half later `` much of that and a hard
:39:30. > :39:37.labour. In his first speech out of prison, he talked about, let bygones
:39:38. > :39:45.be bygones. One of Ben's Labour Party colleagues says you could not
:39:46. > :39:52.see him barracking the opposition in the House of Commons. Absolutely.
:39:53. > :40:00.Unifying. An extraordinary man. You also tweeted that you avoid PMQs. It
:40:01. > :40:05.is horrible. It is a bearpit. I think he represents a different
:40:06. > :40:09.culture. I heard Tony Blair say in an interview this week that without
:40:10. > :40:12.him he does not think the Northern Ireland peace process would have
:40:13. > :40:21.succeeded. He was a valuable source of advice and wisdom for Tony Blair
:40:22. > :40:27.during that process. The consensus will dissolve pretty quickly, I
:40:28. > :40:30.imagine. Tax breaks for small firms,
:40:31. > :40:33.motorists and married couples were set out by the Chancellor in his
:40:34. > :40:36.Autumn Statement this week. But George Osborne also confirmed plans
:40:37. > :40:39.to raise the state retirement age and says the Government must carry
:40:40. > :40:41.on taking difficult decisions. Tamsin Melville reports.
:40:42. > :40:50.It wasn't exactly sunshine George Osborne delivered this week. I
:40:51. > :41:00.cannot decide whether to invest it or spend it. Bloated. `` blow it. It
:41:01. > :41:03.is an insult. At this Plymouth Age UK centre,
:41:04. > :41:07.June, Una and Joyce aren't that impressed their state pension will
:41:08. > :41:11.rise by nearly ?3 a week or that retirement ages are going up. It is
:41:12. > :41:19.going to be really hard on some people, people who do a very
:41:20. > :41:24.physical job. They do not have a clue. They do not have to worry
:41:25. > :41:29.about the bills. I think this winter will be hard for a lot of people.
:41:30. > :41:32.There were some small giveaways. Next year's fuel duty rise
:41:33. > :41:35.cancelled. A tighter cap on rail fares. A tax break for married
:41:36. > :41:40.couples. And a ?50 measure to cut energy bills. But the Chancellor
:41:41. > :41:44.stuck to the austerity script. George Osborne says his plan is
:41:45. > :41:47.working but there's more to be done. Labour says the Chancellor's in
:41:48. > :41:54.denial about the nation's cost of living crisis. Here in Plymouth is
:41:55. > :41:58.it Christmas cheer or winter gloom? There is always a blue Monday bust.
:41:59. > :42:07.There will be better times ahead Which? boom and a bust. I do not
:42:08. > :42:14.think the honest working person sees it in their back pocket at the
:42:15. > :42:20.moment. It is not getting better. Inflation has gone up so your pay
:42:21. > :42:23.packet does not reflect it. We are struggling. It might get better. See
:42:24. > :42:26.what happens. Mr Osborne targeted help for
:42:27. > :42:31.business on the high street and at the South West's many small
:42:32. > :42:35.companies. I think it is positive. It will build on the growth we are
:42:36. > :42:40.starting to see come through. The Chancellor's speech made it clear we
:42:41. > :42:44.have a lot of hurdles to cross, a lot of pain. For small businesses,
:42:45. > :42:47.positive messages coming through. But this Plymouth entrepeneur thinks
:42:48. > :42:54.a cap on a business rates rise isn't enough. It will mean very little for
:42:55. > :42:58.us. There is much more that could be done to help small businesses,
:42:59. > :43:02.issues that are more pressing. Businesses reach a certain level and
:43:03. > :43:10.they have to pay VAT and that level racing would help us hugely. And
:43:11. > :43:12.helping businesses borrow money to expand. That is very difficult.
:43:13. > :43:22.Meanwhile, with the economy on the up, the Chancellor says he's fixing
:43:23. > :43:30.the roof while the sun is shining. Labour accusing you of smoke and
:43:31. > :43:38.mirrors, Sarah. This was a tremendous Autumn Statement. This
:43:39. > :43:43.weekend, small business Saturday. Premises being able to have ?1000
:43:44. > :43:50.back on their rent. We are looking at measures to fill gaps on high
:43:51. > :43:55.streets. I think there are some really important measures here to
:43:56. > :43:59.get people back into employment, measures to encourage employment for
:44:00. > :44:06.young people. The overall... This is just focusing on the best way out of
:44:07. > :44:09.poverty to be employment. Employment is rising, unemployment is falling.
:44:10. > :44:14.I think this is a tremendous encouragement. The Chancellor was
:44:15. > :44:20.making the point that the Labour Party had made dire predictions that
:44:21. > :44:24.public sector job cuts would not be replaced by the private sector. The
:44:25. > :44:26.coalition came up with one prescription, you came up with
:44:27. > :44:33.another. There's is being proven right. We have talked about this
:44:34. > :44:40.before. People are working shorter hours for o there are more jobs in
:44:41. > :44:43.the economy. Some are. The consequences of keeping people in
:44:44. > :44:47.jobs, their pay is stagnant and in real terms pay has gone down. What
:44:48. > :44:51.there was not in this statement was anything on the cost of living
:44:52. > :44:54.crisis. As the people you interviewed showed, they are still
:44:55. > :44:58.really hurting and they did not see anything in this that will help them
:44:59. > :45:04.Aikens meet. Looking at the big picture, it is true, isn't it, to
:45:05. > :45:10.say that in many ways you have changed the goalposts `` make ends
:45:11. > :45:15.meet. Now you are saying that it is the wrong kind of recovery and the
:45:16. > :45:23.wrong kinds of jobs. Remember what George Osborne predicted in 2010, he
:45:24. > :45:30.predicted it would have grown by 7.7%. It has grown 2.5%. Less than a
:45:31. > :45:33.third of the growth he predicted when he became Chancellor. That is
:45:34. > :45:37.because his extreme austerity measures as we have discussed many
:45:38. > :45:41.times killed off the growth he inherited. We would be in a much
:45:42. > :45:45.better place if we had more growth. I am glad the economy is growing
:45:46. > :45:48.now. But people are not feeling it except those at the top and he
:45:49. > :45:54.failed to address it. That is a reasonable point. You cannot have
:45:55. > :45:58.people thinking the Conservative Party are good at book`keeping and
:45:59. > :46:02.good for business, but the average person is not feeling the benefit.
:46:03. > :46:10.People are struggling. That is why measures such as the fuel duty
:46:11. > :46:14.frees, we have not had any rises under this coalition. Particularly
:46:15. > :46:21.in a place like Devon where people are so reliant on their cars... We
:46:22. > :46:25.felt it was a very important way to try and help bring bills down. But
:46:26. > :46:31.there is no doubt, it would not be fair not to acknowledge that people
:46:32. > :46:37.are struggling. The cost of living will be an issue. We need to make
:46:38. > :46:40.sure... The best way to lift people out of poverty is to help them to be
:46:41. > :46:47.in jobs. That has been a great success story for the coalition. You
:46:48. > :46:53.were rattled by the Labour Party's proposal to frees energy bills. I'd
:46:54. > :46:56.do not feel it is realistic to expect people to believe you can
:46:57. > :47:06.freeze international energy costs. You cannot do it. The profit`taking
:47:07. > :47:17.from these companies is not as great a share of people's bills as they
:47:18. > :47:30.have been led to believe. However, what we can address is taking many
:47:31. > :47:38.of the fuel subsidies... Sorry, the renewable subsidies out of people's
:47:39. > :47:54.hills and shifting them to general taxation. What was happening in
:47:55. > :47:57.effect was we were getting a transfer from people who were
:47:58. > :48:01.fuelled Porter fuel rates. `` fuel poor to fuel rich. Some people would
:48:02. > :48:03.argue it is making fuel poverty worse. We have John Major saying
:48:04. > :48:08.there should be a windfall tax on the energy companies. What George
:48:09. > :48:11.Osborne did in this regard, the ?50 less of an increased and there would
:48:12. > :48:14.have been, the impact of that will mean that jobs in the renewable
:48:15. > :48:17.sector will be affected as a number of renewable energy companies... The
:48:18. > :48:20.level of investment will be the same. People felt it was
:48:21. > :48:24.transferring money from people who were poor to people who were not
:48:25. > :48:26.fuel poor. It was important to acknowledge that we need to invest
:48:27. > :48:31.in renewables. I believe that passionately. But we should not take
:48:32. > :48:33.it directly out of people's bills. There is a real reduction in the
:48:34. > :48:37.support for the insulation scheme which will be damaging. You are
:48:38. > :48:42.delaying it. Overall, the point that there will be a crash on investment
:48:43. > :48:47.in renewables, I would not accept it. But there will be a delay for
:48:48. > :48:54.some people in getting access to insulation. Ed Balls this week, you
:48:55. > :48:58.have basically decided to approach this by making further concessions
:48:59. > :49:02.to the big six energy companies who have been told by Ofgem they should
:49:03. > :49:08.be providing more for less. We need to bring in more companies so that
:49:09. > :49:11.we have greater competition in the energy sector. That is very
:49:12. > :49:16.important. One of the things that would happen as a result of an
:49:17. > :49:19.artificial price fix, a promise that cannot really be delivered, is that
:49:20. > :49:23.some of the smaller players, the people so important in bringing
:49:24. > :49:28.prices down, they would go to the wall. Although it sounds great in
:49:29. > :49:32.theory, all you get in practice with an artificial price freeze is you
:49:33. > :49:37.get prices going up before and after and unfortunately you get less
:49:38. > :49:41.investment in infrastructure. We could see blackouts. That is a
:49:42. > :49:49.really significant problem for everybody. That is exactly the same
:49:50. > :49:58.as what the energy company said in 1997 when we introduced the windfall
:49:59. > :50:02.tax. There needs to be a separation in the energy markets between
:50:03. > :50:07.generation and supply. I think there is a growing recognition that the
:50:08. > :50:09.energy market is broken and needs fixing and I wish the government had
:50:10. > :50:16.addressed this rather than letting the big six off scot`free. The
:50:17. > :50:23.margin has narrowed. We are down to a few percentage points by 2015 in
:50:24. > :50:26.the extra capacity we have. That is why an artificial price fix at this
:50:27. > :50:35.point would risk the lights going out. Try not to call on your
:50:36. > :50:39.specialist skills. `` time now. Leaders from around the World
:50:40. > :50:43.converge on London next week for the G8 summit and this year the focus is
:50:44. > :50:46.on dementia. The Government's using its presidency to push nations to
:50:47. > :50:49.find new treatments and a cure. It follows the publication of a
:50:50. > :50:52.dementia map by the Health Secretary which shows fewer than half of
:50:53. > :50:57.people in Devon, Dorset and Somerset who suffer from dementia are being
:50:58. > :50:58.identified by the NHS. Anna Varle reports.
:50:59. > :51:03.Norman was only 50 when he was diagnosed with dementia. He was told
:51:04. > :51:12.to expect to live for another ten to 12 years. I am in dead buying `` in
:51:13. > :51:18.bed by 10pm. I walk around this flat and try to find a way out and asked
:51:19. > :51:22.to go home. I want to go home all of the time. I don't recognise my wife.
:51:23. > :51:26.He's been living with the disease for six years now. Initially he was
:51:27. > :51:29.told he was too young to have dementia. But despite this, he says
:51:30. > :51:32.he's one of the lucky ones because he was diagnosed early. But this
:51:33. > :51:36.isn't the case for many. The Health Secretary has recently
:51:37. > :51:39.published a dementia map. It shows less than half of people with the
:51:40. > :51:52.disease are being diagnosed in Devon, Dorset and Somerset. North,
:51:53. > :51:55.East and West Devon have the worst diagnosis rates in the region at
:51:56. > :52:00.42.7% with Cornwall coming out on top with just over 50%. But The NHS
:52:01. > :52:03.says a lot of progress has been made. Referrals to memory clinics
:52:04. > :52:06.are up four fold, waiting times have been reduced and after care has been
:52:07. > :52:08.improved. We have dementia adviser services that are commissioned by
:52:09. > :52:10.local authorities to provide support, information and care for
:52:11. > :52:14.people from the point of diagnosis through to end of life. Next week
:52:15. > :52:18.the UK will lead the global fight against the disease by bringing G8
:52:19. > :52:26.countries together to help find treatments and a cure.
:52:27. > :52:33.You are a former Health Minister and a former GP. The diagnosis rates are
:52:34. > :52:37.shockingly low. The point is they have always been shockingly low.
:52:38. > :52:42.Since this government made it a real priority, the situation has
:52:43. > :52:46.improved. What these maps give us now is a useful baseline. We would
:52:47. > :52:50.like to see this improve further. Unless you start measuring things,
:52:51. > :52:54.they are much easier to ignore. I think this is a step in the right
:52:55. > :52:59.direction. I do not think people should feel too despondent. It is an
:53:00. > :53:04.improving situation. We need to focus on individuals and carers and
:53:05. > :53:07.I hope in the care bill we will see further improvements for carers will
:53:08. > :53:11.stop that will be coming before Parliament in the next few weeks. In
:53:12. > :53:15.addition, we need to focus on research and treatment for the
:53:16. > :53:19.future. Ben, when you were in the Department of Health, was this an
:53:20. > :53:23.issue on your radar was back yes, dementia was the coming thing. We
:53:24. > :53:27.published the first`ever strategy and I am glad it has been picked up
:53:28. > :53:32.by discouragement. My own interest in this, my mother died 59 of
:53:33. > :53:39.early`onset Alzheimer's and I was a teenage carers are her `` for her.
:53:40. > :53:44.There was no support them. There is now. I can understand why some
:53:45. > :53:47.people may be terrified of getting a diagnosis, but in terms of the care
:53:48. > :53:51.and support available and being able to plan and understand what is
:53:52. > :53:55.happening and get help and therapy, it is so important in terms of the
:53:56. > :53:59.quality of people's lives. It is good the numbers are going up. They
:54:00. > :54:04.need to go up further. In Devon, this week we launched a new memory
:54:05. > :54:07.service for Devon which will bring things together better and ensure
:54:08. > :54:11.people get early diagnosis and support. I don't know whether there
:54:12. > :54:16.are any parallels with diabetes. Diabetes campaigners are saying that
:54:17. > :54:21.it ruins peoples lives and costs the NHS a lot of money because it is not
:54:22. > :54:24.diagnosed early enough. And there were different types of dementia.
:54:25. > :54:29.People think of Alzheimer's but there are other types linked to
:54:30. > :54:33.vascular disease. And other forms of lifestyle advice that can make a
:54:34. > :54:37.real difference. People drinking too much, that is an important cause.
:54:38. > :54:43.Having a proper diagnosis and access to treatments that can delay some of
:54:44. > :54:47.the symptoms of the disease, I think that is a very important thing. You
:54:48. > :54:51.need to have a correct diagnosis. More than that, it is for those
:54:52. > :54:59.around you, putting in place the kind of support networks that they
:55:00. > :55:03.might need going forward. Now our regular round`up of the
:55:04. > :55:10.political week in the South West in 60 Seconds.
:55:11. > :55:15.The Marine convicted of murdering an Afghan insurgent is finally and
:55:16. > :55:18.controversially named. It is all very well sitting there with the
:55:19. > :55:22.benefit of hindsight, but do they really understand the pressures our
:55:23. > :55:29.men have to endure? Particularly the Royal Marine commandos. NPP as a
:55:30. > :55:37.farmer should not lose too much of their subsidies to environmental
:55:38. > :55:39.schemes `` NPs say that farmers. You have to get the money to the
:55:40. > :55:44.livestock producers. And could farmers lose vital manpower when the
:55:45. > :55:49.government scraps the scheme for migrant workers? It is
:55:50. > :55:54.short`sighted. It worked well for us. In two of three times, we will
:55:55. > :55:58.be back to where we were ten years ago. We were screaming we could not
:55:59. > :56:02.get enough labour to do horticultural pipe jobs. And an
:56:03. > :56:09.Exeter `based airline announces more cuts. Last time it was jobs, this
:56:10. > :56:17.time it is flights. That's the Sunday Politics in the
:56:18. > :56:23.South West. I noticed you nodding vigorously when the farmer was
:56:24. > :56:29.talking about seasonal workers, Ben. It is not the case that there are
:56:30. > :56:33.British workers lining up to get the jobs. The debate in this country on
:56:34. > :56:37.immigration is wholly dishonest. Many sectors in our part of the
:56:38. > :56:42.world, farming, processing, picking the daffodils in Cornwall, they
:56:43. > :56:47.would not be able to function without migrant workers. The
:56:48. > :56:53.producers are reliant on them and when the scheme stops they will be
:56:54. > :56:58.in real trouble. As Ben says, what we have to remember is that migrants
:56:59. > :57:02.are very put into our economy. But what we want is for British workers
:57:03. > :57:06.to be applying for those jobs. There is an argument that says that if you
:57:07. > :57:10.make it too easy to employ people from elsewhere, we are hearing
:57:11. > :57:14.stories about employers actively advertising elsewhere and not
:57:15. > :57:17.advertising in the UK. We want them to encourage local people to apply
:57:18. > :57:23.for the jobs. Is that a reasonable point? Absolutely. But as your food
:57:24. > :57:27.producer said, there are times and are coming when there are labour
:57:28. > :57:31.shortages and let us be frank, quite a lot of local people are not
:57:32. > :57:34.prepared to do the hard graft and grubby work and put in the hours.
:57:35. > :57:40.They are interested in easier jobs, better paid. If we do not want these
:57:41. > :57:43.sectors to suffer, we have to think carefully about locking the door to
:57:44. > :57:48.these people who are keeping these sectors very important to the
:57:49. > :57:52.south`west economy ticking over. It seems this scheme is disappearing by
:57:53. > :57:57.default. Countries which currently benefit from it getting the broader
:57:58. > :57:59.benefits of EU membership. The farmers are saying, couldn't we
:58:00. > :58:05.extend it to other countries outside the EU to fill the gap? I think we
:58:06. > :58:08.still have to focus on trying to encourage young people in our
:58:09. > :58:14.country to take these jobs and make sure that employers advertise
:58:15. > :58:18.actively at home rather than abroad. A huge row over the naming of this
:58:19. > :58:24.Marine who was convicted of murdering the Afghan insurgent. A
:58:25. > :58:27.former Marine feels very strongly that civilians do not understand the
:58:28. > :58:30.pressures people are under. There should be special circumstances
:58:31. > :58:36.here. He should have remained anonymous. I am very reluctant to
:58:37. > :58:39.second`guess a decision a court has been made when I have not sat
:58:40. > :58:46.through the evidence. I was not the judge or the jury. I think it is
:58:47. > :58:50.concomitant on all of us to be slightly careful about how we
:58:51. > :58:53.comment. We all think the Armed Forces do an amazing job and put
:58:54. > :58:59.their lives at risk all of the time. But if you will forgive me, I will
:59:00. > :59:03.not, on a court case which I have not sat in on and pretend to know
:59:04. > :59:07.more about it than the judge did. I cannot add to that. It is absolutely
:59:08. > :59:14.right that there are things about this case and looking at the footage
:59:15. > :59:19.from the headcount, I think that was deeply shocking footage `` the head
:59:20. > :59:22.camera. I think it protects other soldiers so they do not find
:59:23. > :59:26.themselves in a position where they are pressured to do things that are
:59:27. > :59:31.unacceptable. There is more to this than we know and we should leave it
:59:32. > :59:33.to the courts to make the judgement. This row about whether farmers
:59:34. > :59:39.should lose money to environmental schemes. I was slightly puzzled
:59:40. > :59:44.because as I understand it, this has been a long`term shift in subsidy
:59:45. > :59:48.from food production to more environmental schemes to encourage
:59:49. > :59:55.diversity and biodiversity, so it is still often farmers benefiting. I
:59:56. > :59:57.think the DEFRA select committee are saying the move should be slower.
:59:58. > :00:09.work... That's all we've got time for. It's back now to Andrew.
:00:10. > :00:22.Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.
:00:23. > :00:42.Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.
:00:43. > :00:49.The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or
:00:50. > :00:56.politics, was protest against apartheid.
:00:57. > :01:06.I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is
:01:07. > :01:17.the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on
:01:18. > :01:22.the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can
:01:23. > :01:26.change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by
:01:27. > :01:31.changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him
:01:32. > :01:44.tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.
:01:45. > :01:48.Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us
:01:49. > :02:05.to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP
:02:06. > :02:10.Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from
:02:11. > :02:15.prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one
:02:16. > :02:19.person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you
:02:20. > :02:23.met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest
:02:24. > :02:29.influence? He was extraordinary. He had just come out of prison, 28
:02:30. > :02:35.years in reason. He had seen a lot of his colleagues tortured, blown up
:02:36. > :02:37.and killed. He was entirely without bitterness. That is what came
:02:38. > :02:43.across. That was key to his achievement, to achieve a peaceful
:02:44. > :02:47.transition. Everybody thought that if you have black majority rule, you
:02:48. > :02:52.might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I
:02:53. > :02:58.remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a
:02:59. > :03:05.peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one
:03:06. > :03:09.of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the
:03:10. > :03:14.anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,
:03:15. > :03:18.it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were
:03:19. > :03:24.black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the
:03:25. > :03:28.struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.
:03:29. > :03:31.Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle, for our
:03:32. > :03:37.generation, was the political campaign. We have the 50th
:03:38. > :03:41.anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.
:03:42. > :03:45.We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never
:03:46. > :03:50.forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand
:03:51. > :03:54.with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years
:03:55. > :03:59.and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come
:04:00. > :04:06.out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the
:04:07. > :04:14.Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour
:04:15. > :04:18.backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn
:04:19. > :04:22.Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he
:04:23. > :04:25.would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the
:04:26. > :04:30.polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were
:04:31. > :04:37.quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of
:04:38. > :04:40.sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might
:04:41. > :04:45.come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying
:04:46. > :04:48.to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these
:04:49. > :04:55.anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The
:04:56. > :05:04.spinning has begun against him? This is the party of brotherly love, no
:05:05. > :05:10.matter what the Tories say, we can say worse about each other. How
:05:11. > :05:16.could it be that two former aides to Gordon Brown do not like each other?
:05:17. > :05:21.Far be it from me to say. If he wanted to do it, and I'm not saying
:05:22. > :05:26.he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I
:05:27. > :05:31.mean, he got rid of you, he got rid of his brother? One thing you should
:05:32. > :05:33.not do is under estimate Ed Miliband's capacity for
:05:34. > :05:39.ruthlessness. If he feels it is the right thing to do, he will do it.
:05:40. > :05:43.It's not just a matter of... Ed Balls is a big, powerful
:05:44. > :05:46.personality. He's great to interview because he is across his subject,
:05:47. > :05:50.you can have a really good argument with him, a man that knows his
:05:51. > :05:57.brief, his facts. But it's not just about the personality. There is a
:05:58. > :06:02.kind of sense that Labour needs to look forwards more on economic
:06:03. > :06:05.policy. Of course, the standard of living has been hugely successful
:06:06. > :06:10.for Labour. But it needs more than that on economic policy? I think he
:06:11. > :06:16.has been one of the most effective member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's
:06:17. > :06:19.always associated with the Brown years, where there is always an
:06:20. > :06:24.element about, you were the guys that got it wrong. I think Ed
:06:25. > :06:27.Miliband will be very tempted to replace him with Alistair Darling.
:06:28. > :06:31.The scenario goes like this, Alistair Darling saves the union and
:06:32. > :06:35.then in September he saves the Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't
:06:36. > :06:38.think he would do it. Talk about shifting tectonic plates, it would,
:06:39. > :06:45.wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too
:06:46. > :06:56.happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a
:06:57. > :07:00.bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously
:07:01. > :07:05.retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been
:07:06. > :07:08.after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle
:07:09. > :07:13.ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If
:07:14. > :07:19.you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up
:07:20. > :07:22.knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with
:07:23. > :07:28.Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he
:07:29. > :07:31.was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I
:07:32. > :07:36.think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way
:07:37. > :07:39.around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is
:07:40. > :07:43.too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic
:07:44. > :07:50.policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had
:07:51. > :07:53.some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making
:07:54. > :07:59.from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.
:08:00. > :08:02.There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in
:08:03. > :08:06.trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory
:08:07. > :08:10.cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other
:08:11. > :08:13.words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can
:08:14. > :08:18.say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.
:08:19. > :08:20.Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,
:08:21. > :08:27.then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the
:08:28. > :08:31.macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not
:08:32. > :08:37.experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even
:08:38. > :08:41.Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for
:08:42. > :08:45.middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is
:08:46. > :08:48.particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't
:08:49. > :08:53.go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a
:08:54. > :08:56.quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come
:08:57. > :09:02.out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place
:09:03. > :09:10.a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,
:09:11. > :09:17.one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I
:09:18. > :09:23.say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father
:09:24. > :09:31.Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for
:09:32. > :09:38.a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and
:09:39. > :09:42.1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will
:09:43. > :09:51.remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got
:09:52. > :09:56.it wrong last year. Well, they went down in March and then went back in
:09:57. > :09:58.December. I'm going to go under and claim credit where it's higher. I'm
:09:59. > :10:05.going to say 1%. Deliberately get it wrong. Given our record, if we say
:10:06. > :10:09.there is going to be spectacular growth, does it mean we're going to
:10:10. > :10:15.go into recession? There is incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%,
:10:16. > :10:23.because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to
:10:24. > :10:30.3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this
:10:31. > :10:38.time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the
:10:39. > :10:45.European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the
:10:46. > :10:51.vote? Yes. Second behind Labour. Second behind Labour. Will Alex
:10:52. > :10:57.Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be
:10:58. > :11:01.closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like
:11:02. > :11:09.let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many
:11:10. > :11:18.Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than
:11:19. > :11:21.anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel
:11:22. > :11:27.Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident. A change of tone for
:11:28. > :11:32.your magazine. Not many will come, but a lot here already will
:11:33. > :11:38.normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most
:11:39. > :11:41.right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the
:11:42. > :11:51.kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,
:11:52. > :11:55.everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason
:11:56. > :12:02.they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time
:12:03. > :12:09.next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has
:12:10. > :12:16.lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be
:12:17. > :12:21.here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope
:12:22. > :12:30.so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?
:12:31. > :12:33.Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not
:12:34. > :12:40.break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They
:12:41. > :12:46.will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe
:12:47. > :12:53.just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?
:12:54. > :12:58.I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems
:12:59. > :13:01.pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory
:13:02. > :13:05.house of government. I think it would suit the Lib Dems to break
:13:06. > :13:10.just before the election. I think that is what Vince Cable wants to
:13:11. > :13:17.do. I don't think it is what Nick Clegg would like to do. The Tories
:13:18. > :13:20.would love it. They would have all of the toys to themselves. Yellow
:13:21. > :13:23.marker they would look like the grown-ups. The problem for Vince
:13:24. > :13:25.Cable is that he's not the force that used to be after his temper
:13:26. > :13:34.tantrum at the Conference. I will be back with the Daily
:13:35. > :13:40.Politics next week. If Santer gives you a diary in your stocking, pencil
:13:41. > :13:47.in Sunday the 20th of January, the first Sunday Politics of 2014.
:13:48. > :13:49.Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is
:13:50. > :13:51.Christmas. And New Year.