:00:37. > :00:44.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:45. > :00:47.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:48. > :00:49.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:50. > :00:54.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:55. > :00:58.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old
:00:59. > :01:02.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all
:01:03. > :01:08.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the
:01:09. > :01:11.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:12. > :01:20.In the South West: Labour claims the plan to become an
:01:21. > :01:22.In the South West: Labour claims the budget will make our housing crisis
:01:23. > :01:26.worse. And, stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of
:01:27. > :01:39.making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who
:01:40. > :01:42.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who
:01:43. > :01:45.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his
:01:46. > :01:48.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:49. > :01:54.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:55. > :02:00.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:01. > :02:05.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:06. > :02:08.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:09. > :02:12.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:13. > :02:15.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3.5
:02:16. > :02:17.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:18. > :02:48.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:49. > :02:51.own, driven partly by tradition, like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:52. > :02:54.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:55. > :03:07.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:08. > :03:10.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:11. > :03:14.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:15. > :03:17.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:18. > :03:20.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:21. > :03:22.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:23. > :03:29.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what
:03:30. > :03:32.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to
:03:33. > :03:34.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the
:03:35. > :03:41.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and
:03:42. > :03:44.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures
:03:45. > :03:48.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on
:03:49. > :03:55.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax
:03:56. > :04:01.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which
:04:02. > :04:06.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster
:04:07. > :04:09.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or the froth on the top. And changes to
:04:10. > :04:13.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum,
:04:14. > :04:22.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.
:04:23. > :04:25.This is a Budget for the makers, the doers and the savers and I commend
:04:26. > :04:29.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to
:04:30. > :04:33.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not
:04:34. > :04:40.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of
:04:41. > :04:44.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all
:04:45. > :04:47.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an
:04:48. > :04:50.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people
:04:51. > :04:55.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering
:04:56. > :04:58.the Budget at the best of times, though some, including Labour MPs,
:04:59. > :05:01.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.
:05:02. > :05:08.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed
:05:09. > :05:11.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:12. > :05:19.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:20. > :05:22.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:23. > :05:25.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:26. > :05:28.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:29. > :05:37.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:38. > :05:40.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:41. > :05:43.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:44. > :05:45.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:46. > :06:00.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:01. > :06:10.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:11. > :06:15.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:16. > :06:19.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:20. > :06:23.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:24. > :06:28.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:29. > :06:33.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:34. > :06:39.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:40. > :06:44.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:45. > :06:48.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:49. > :06:53.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:54. > :06:58.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:59. > :07:02.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:03. > :07:07.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:08. > :07:11.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:12. > :07:15.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:16. > :07:20.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:21. > :07:25.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:26. > :07:34.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:35. > :07:38.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:39. > :07:43.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:44. > :07:47.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:48. > :07:52.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:53. > :07:57.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:58. > :08:00.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:01. > :08:06.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:07. > :08:11.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.
:08:12. > :08:17.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in
:08:18. > :08:22.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your
:08:23. > :08:27.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail
:08:28. > :08:31.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone
:08:32. > :08:37.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily
:08:38. > :08:43.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this
:08:44. > :08:51.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton
:08:52. > :08:58.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did
:08:59. > :09:03.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made
:09:04. > :09:07.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we
:09:08. > :09:11.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure
:09:12. > :09:16.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.
:09:17. > :09:28.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking
:09:29. > :09:30.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are
:09:31. > :09:32.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The
:09:33. > :09:39.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.
:09:40. > :09:48.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ
:09:49. > :09:59.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as
:10:00. > :10:02.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly
:10:03. > :10:06.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having
:10:07. > :10:10.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their
:10:11. > :10:15.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small
:10:16. > :10:23.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and
:10:24. > :10:26.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of
:10:27. > :10:29.using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his
:10:30. > :10:32.political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in
:10:33. > :10:34.this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the
:10:35. > :10:45.pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At
:10:46. > :10:49.the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension,
:10:50. > :10:55.that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 25% of
:10:56. > :11:00.the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money,
:11:01. > :11:03.for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance
:11:04. > :11:07.which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities
:11:08. > :11:16.have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed
:11:17. > :11:21.following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would
:11:22. > :11:25.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,
:11:26. > :11:29.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they
:11:30. > :11:34.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but
:11:35. > :11:46.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer
:11:47. > :11:54.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda
:11:55. > :11:59.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are
:12:00. > :12:03.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a
:12:04. > :12:05.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,
:12:06. > :12:09.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called
:12:10. > :12:12.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might
:12:13. > :12:19.lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What
:12:20. > :12:24.this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long,
:12:25. > :12:27.we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we
:12:28. > :12:33.will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What
:12:34. > :12:36.we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state
:12:37. > :12:40.pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with
:12:41. > :12:43.their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and
:12:44. > :12:48.saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will
:12:49. > :12:53.spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices
:12:54. > :13:01.they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The
:13:02. > :13:07.average pension pot is between 25000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an
:13:08. > :13:12.option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy
:13:13. > :13:15.a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a
:13:16. > :13:19.mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money
:13:20. > :13:23.earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more.
:13:24. > :13:28.We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire,
:13:29. > :13:31.there is someone to have a conversation with talking through
:13:32. > :13:35.the implications of spending the money early and options of investing
:13:36. > :13:42.it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much
:13:43. > :13:46.bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than
:13:47. > :13:51.the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive
:13:52. > :13:59.to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 40%
:14:00. > :14:03.band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to
:14:04. > :14:07.spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state
:14:08. > :14:13.pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given
:14:14. > :14:21.year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will
:14:22. > :14:24.mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the
:14:25. > :14:29.lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have
:14:30. > :14:35.kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did
:14:36. > :14:41.you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I
:14:42. > :14:45.have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade. The
:14:46. > :14:49.idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules
:14:50. > :14:53.over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in
:14:54. > :15:02.places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We
:15:03. > :15:04.already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year
:15:05. > :15:06.talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month
:15:07. > :15:10.consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There
:15:11. > :15:16.is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how
:15:17. > :15:18.we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread
:15:19. > :15:23.consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of
:15:24. > :15:26.unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are
:15:27. > :15:30.indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25
:15:31. > :15:36.billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below
:15:37. > :15:53.the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the
:15:54. > :16:03.implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there
:16:04. > :16:10.will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole
:16:11. > :16:13.pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying,
:16:14. > :16:19.but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment
:16:20. > :16:24.and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures
:16:25. > :16:30.work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to
:16:31. > :16:37.buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another
:16:38. > :16:43.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax
:16:44. > :16:48.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners
:16:49. > :16:53.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they
:16:54. > :17:01.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they
:17:02. > :17:06.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment
:17:07. > :17:11.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age
:17:12. > :17:18.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that
:17:19. > :17:24.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent
:17:25. > :17:29.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to
:17:30. > :17:33.provide an income in retirement, that is how it was structured, but
:17:34. > :17:40.that is no longer a requirement, surely that undermines the case that
:17:41. > :17:46.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.
:17:47. > :18:00.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax
:18:01. > :18:09.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your
:18:10. > :18:12.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they
:18:13. > :18:18.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue
:18:19. > :18:22.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that
:18:23. > :18:29.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected
:18:30. > :18:33.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right
:18:34. > :18:39.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered
:18:40. > :18:44.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally
:18:45. > :18:50.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a
:18:51. > :18:53.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have
:18:54. > :18:59.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their
:19:00. > :19:04.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done
:19:05. > :19:10.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought
:19:11. > :19:20.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these
:19:21. > :19:25.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?
:19:26. > :19:31.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working
:19:32. > :19:36.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates
:19:37. > :19:44.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.
:19:45. > :19:52.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax
:19:53. > :19:58.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners. And
:19:59. > :20:01.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account
:20:02. > :20:07.your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years
:20:08. > :20:14.households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by
:20:15. > :20:18.50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the
:20:19. > :20:23.economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the
:20:24. > :20:27.future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these
:20:28. > :20:32.measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We
:20:33. > :20:38.want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance. As
:20:39. > :20:43.the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money
:20:44. > :20:48.and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if
:20:49. > :20:52.people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will
:20:53. > :20:57.have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has
:20:58. > :21:02.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will
:21:03. > :21:07.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax
:21:08. > :21:14.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill
:21:15. > :21:19.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort
:21:20. > :21:23.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at
:21:24. > :21:30.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot
:21:31. > :21:33.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing
:21:34. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the margins and
:21:46. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to
:21:46. > :21:52.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even
:21:53. > :21:58.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't
:21:59. > :22:04.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a
:22:05. > :22:19.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my
:22:20. > :22:22.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an
:22:23. > :22:25.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're
:22:26. > :22:28.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless
:22:29. > :22:31.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that
:22:32. > :22:34.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the
:22:35. > :22:37.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message
:22:38. > :22:43.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.
:22:44. > :22:48.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she
:22:49. > :22:53.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a
:22:54. > :22:57.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But
:22:58. > :23:02.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new
:23:03. > :23:09.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and
:23:10. > :23:13.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,
:23:14. > :23:20.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by
:23:21. > :23:26.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and
:23:27. > :23:29.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just
:23:30. > :23:35.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put
:23:36. > :23:41.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way
:23:42. > :23:49.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to
:23:50. > :23:54.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by
:23:55. > :24:00.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by
:24:01. > :24:05.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we
:24:06. > :24:11.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an
:24:12. > :24:19.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,
:24:20. > :24:26.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to
:24:27. > :24:31.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her
:24:32. > :24:36.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they
:24:37. > :24:44.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain
:24:45. > :24:53.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country
:24:54. > :25:00.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr
:25:01. > :25:04.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They
:25:05. > :25:10.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the
:25:11. > :25:18.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less
:25:19. > :25:26.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.
:25:27. > :25:36.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit
:25:37. > :25:43.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.
:25:44. > :25:49.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to
:25:50. > :25:57.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting
:25:58. > :26:02.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,
:26:03. > :26:08.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,
:26:09. > :26:18.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am
:26:19. > :26:25.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I
:26:26. > :26:29.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this
:26:30. > :26:34.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,
:26:35. > :26:39.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but
:26:40. > :26:44.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable.
:26:45. > :26:49.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can
:26:50. > :26:53.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be
:26:54. > :27:01.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians
:27:02. > :27:05.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try
:27:06. > :27:07.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the
:27:08. > :27:16.link. And we're joined now by the
:27:17. > :27:23.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had
:27:24. > :27:30.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a
:27:31. > :27:43.recognition that or politician -- all politics these days is like
:27:44. > :27:51.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics
:27:52. > :27:56.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these
:27:57. > :28:02.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,
:28:03. > :28:08.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is
:28:09. > :28:13.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.
:28:14. > :28:16.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning
:28:17. > :28:24.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of
:28:25. > :28:29.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on
:28:30. > :28:33.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to
:28:34. > :28:39.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this
:28:40. > :28:42.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are
:28:43. > :28:48.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,
:28:49. > :28:53.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because
:28:54. > :29:00.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know
:29:01. > :29:04.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner,
:29:05. > :29:09.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which
:29:10. > :29:12.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the
:29:13. > :29:18.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local
:29:19. > :29:24.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of
:29:25. > :29:29.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your
:29:30. > :29:35.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%
:29:36. > :29:40.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.
:29:41. > :29:47.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,
:29:48. > :29:50.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would
:29:51. > :30:07.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:08. > :30:16.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:17. > :30:21.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:22. > :30:27.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:28. > :30:34.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:35. > :30:39.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there
:30:40. > :30:44.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we
:30:45. > :30:51.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did
:30:52. > :30:55.not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key
:30:56. > :31:01.demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern
:31:02. > :31:12.campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We
:31:13. > :31:17.have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What
:31:18. > :31:21.people think and feel may be different to their income. You can
:31:22. > :31:25.be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and
:31:26. > :31:32.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does
:31:33. > :31:37.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:38. > :31:41.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be
:31:42. > :31:45.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and
:31:46. > :31:50.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties
:31:51. > :31:55.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not
:31:56. > :32:00.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of
:32:01. > :32:04.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people
:32:05. > :32:13.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the
:32:14. > :32:22.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were
:32:23. > :32:28.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:29. > :32:33.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:34. > :32:41.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:42. > :32:49.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:50. > :32:55.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:56. > :32:57.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:58. > :33:13.Miller band. Thank you for being with us today.
:33:14. > :33:17.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:33:18. > :33:20.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:33:21. > :33:31.Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. Coming up minutes: We'll
:33:32. > :33:35.Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. Coming up on the Sunday Politics in the South
:33:36. > :33:38.West: Is the wind from Westminster blowing against the renewable energy
:33:39. > :33:41.industry? For the next 20 minutes, I'm joined
:33:42. > :33:45.by Ben Bradshaw, Labour MP for Exeter and Anne Marie Morris,
:33:46. > :33:48.Conservative MP for Newton Abbot. Welcome to the programme. This week
:33:49. > :33:52.residents of a mid`Devon village laid claim to the country's biggest
:33:53. > :33:55.pothole. The people of Sandford have been referring to this as the
:33:56. > :33:57.swimming pool. Some help was at hand though from the Chancellor, who
:33:58. > :34:01.pledged another ?200 million nationally to mend damaged roads.
:34:02. > :34:03.That, though, according to the Local Government Association will
:34:04. > :34:09.disappear into an enormous hole itself as the total backlog of road
:34:10. > :34:10.repairs will cost ?10.5 billion. The Budget also saw the Chancellor
:34:11. > :34:25.offering more help for house buyers. Potholes, pensions, fuel duty frees
:34:26. > :34:31.and possibly more regional flights. It was a good budget for the West
:34:32. > :34:39.Country, wasn't it? Potholes is probably the biggest issue I hear
:34:40. > :34:44.about. If you are on four wheels they are bad enough and if you are
:34:45. > :34:49.on to, they are lethal. Generally, the pothole money is part of a
:34:50. > :34:54.package of measures which is appealing to people in the
:34:55. > :34:58.south`west? You have to be careful about the pension changes as there
:34:59. > :35:01.is a lot to be discovered about the detail and concerns about whether it
:35:02. > :35:05.will further inflame the property market.
:35:06. > :35:11.There have been suggestions in quite a lot of financial papers since the
:35:12. > :35:21.budget that it could lead to a further inflammation of a property
:35:22. > :35:24.bubble. Anne Marie Morris, the local
:35:25. > :35:29.government Association says here is money for road and pothole repairs
:35:30. > :35:36.but at the same time, the government is cutting local council budgets.
:35:37. > :35:42.Councils are saying free up the money as we could do the job better.
:35:43. > :35:47.That is a fair point and I have been lobbying government hard because the
:35:48. > :35:51.rural counties get a much lower deal than the urban communities and we
:35:52. > :35:59.are 50% underfunded. The government repeatedly completely
:36:00. > :36:04.ignores you, doesn't it? They listen but we have an economic challenge
:36:05. > :36:08.left by the previous government and so finding the extra money without
:36:09. > :36:13.taking it away from urban communities will be a problem. It is
:36:14. > :36:19.a real issue. Generally, quite a big welcome from
:36:20. > :36:26.business for the budget. Except from small and micro businesses, an area
:36:27. > :36:29.you are interested in. I am not even classed as a small
:36:30. > :36:34.business and I don't think micro businesses factored in the budget at
:36:35. > :36:38.all. I don't export of manufacture so the budget has completely missed
:36:39. > :36:44.me entirely. What do you make of that?
:36:45. > :36:49.This budget was more focused on big business but when you take into
:36:50. > :36:54.account the national insurance changes and employers allowance and
:36:55. > :37:01.business rights and ?1000 for small high`street businesses in addition
:37:02. > :37:05.to the cap, all of those things we've had in previous budgets.
:37:06. > :37:11.Frankly, the last two budgets have been focused on the small business.
:37:12. > :37:13.Let us stick with this budget which saw the chancellor offering more
:37:14. > :37:16.help for house buyers. He's extending the Help to Buy scheme
:37:17. > :37:19.which sees the Government playing mortgage lender and backing loans to
:37:20. > :37:22.people trying to climb the property ladder. The basic premise of the
:37:23. > :37:24.scheme is controversial, though, with critics claiming it could make
:37:25. > :37:28.the affordable housing crisis worse. John Henderson reports.
:37:29. > :37:32.Itchy feet and the same is true for six`month`old Toby's parents. The
:37:33. > :37:35.dream of owning their own home is close to reality. They are about to
:37:36. > :37:40.complete on a four`bedroom house in Plymouth which means Toby can leave
:37:41. > :37:43.his granny's house. It is possible due to the governments help to buy
:37:44. > :37:50.scheme which allows people to buy with just a 5% deposit. We wouldn't
:37:51. > :37:55.have been able to afford it if we didn't have the 5%. If it was 10%,
:37:56. > :37:59.we'd be staying with nan. I had to go back to work early on maternity
:38:00. > :38:01.leave to get the mortgage as it was already on the 5% otherwise we would
:38:02. > :38:10.still be here today. This week, the Chancellor confirmed
:38:11. > :38:14.that the scheme, a mix of guarantees and money to stimulate new builds
:38:15. > :38:20.and sales on older houses, would be extended. Taken all together, the
:38:21. > :38:25.housing policies I announce today will support over 200,000 new homes
:38:26. > :38:31.for families. We are getting Britain building. But the scheme isn't
:38:32. > :38:33.without its critics. Not a game changer was how the Royal Institute
:38:34. > :38:41.of Chartered Surveyors described it and labour was also unimpressed.
:38:42. > :38:43.They will not stand up to vested interests, developers sitting on
:38:44. > :38:49.land, even though they cannot solve the housing crisis without it.
:38:50. > :38:53.Labour has issued a "use it or lose it" threat to big developers. House
:38:54. > :38:57.builders say they are not hoarding land and other says the planning
:38:58. > :39:01.system needs changing. On this site in Exeter, they have been trying to
:39:02. > :39:04.build three houses for three years and some say central government
:39:05. > :39:09.should do what it can to make things happen. What you could regard as
:39:10. > :39:13.sterile land needs to be brought back into production. Anything that
:39:14. > :39:15.can be done to incentivise builders and local authorities to produce
:39:16. > :39:24.land that is necessary is really important. Others feel the scheme
:39:25. > :39:28.will stoke up the market and lead to a housing bubble. We must not now
:39:29. > :39:30.settle for a short`term spurt of growth fuelled by an old`fashioned
:39:31. > :39:38.property boom. But the estate agents who have
:39:39. > :39:44.helped Laura say that while transactions are up 40%, prices are
:39:45. > :39:49.sensible. But more sellers would help. It is getting the balance
:39:50. > :39:53.right. It isn't in anyone's favour for there to be a bubble in the
:39:54. > :39:57.market. We want steady growth, for people to be able to move and for
:39:58. > :40:02.there to be a similar amount of sellers and buyers. That's the best
:40:03. > :40:06.market I've seen. Toby and Laura should soon be on
:40:07. > :40:16.their way. Goodbye granny's house and hello new home. Bye!
:40:17. > :40:24.This concern that we might be fuelling another housing bubble,
:40:25. > :40:32.people in your party are concerned as well. It is a concern, isn't it?
:40:33. > :40:36.It is something we need to be careful of. The reality is from all
:40:37. > :40:44.the reports I've seen, house prices are gently going up although not
:40:45. > :40:52.very much in the south`west, nobody is laying that at the door of this
:40:53. > :40:59.scheme. There is a revision of figures for growth up and says `
:41:00. > :41:02.report says house prices will increase by 8.5% by the end of this
:41:03. > :41:13.year and that is something, isn't it? It would be if it translates to
:41:14. > :41:17.that. It is about what is the driver. The economy is improving so
:41:18. > :41:21.house prices are moving back to where they are and if that is
:41:22. > :41:28.happening that is a good thing. If we break `` build houses, prizes ``
:41:29. > :41:33.prices should not go up as fast. The more supply there is to meet the
:41:34. > :41:38.demand, inevitably the prize doesn't keep rising. It sounds as if the
:41:39. > :41:46.government is singing from the Haim sheep `` same hymn sheet as Labour?
:41:47. > :41:50.It is not doing nearly enough to encourage supply and that is why
:41:51. > :41:54.house prices are projected to rise this year. I agree with Vince cable
:41:55. > :41:58.that there is a danger the government is stoking a pre`election
:41:59. > :42:02.house price bubble for political reasons and the recovery objectively
:42:03. > :42:08.there in the economy is not being felt because it is based on property
:42:09. > :42:13.value and private debt. But planning minister said a few months ago that
:42:14. > :42:17.to have more houses, you need to have more people in a position to
:42:18. > :42:21.buy them and that makes sense as well?
:42:22. > :42:27.But there aren't enough affordable houses out there. People 's wages
:42:28. > :42:33.are going up 1% if they are lucky and house prices by much more.
:42:34. > :42:35.People in the south`west already have the biggest gap between house
:42:36. > :42:42.prices and salaries and it is getting wider.
:42:43. > :42:45.What about the point Ed Miliband was making saying the developers are
:42:46. > :42:56.sitting on land waiting for the value to go out? It is a scatter`gun
:42:57. > :43:01.approach policy. We are trying to have a proper approach which means
:43:02. > :43:05.looking at where is the best place to have the development involving
:43:06. > :43:09.local communities. That was part of the Regent `` reason for the changes
:43:10. > :43:15.we put in place and it will help enormously but we're not doing
:43:16. > :43:19.anything to help the supply? There is a lot we are doing. In the budget
:43:20. > :43:24.there was an extra pot set aside for the small developers so if they have
:43:25. > :43:29.not been able to get finance, they can build.
:43:30. > :43:37.Do you back this notion of forcing developers to develop? Identically
:43:38. > :43:39.with that. Local authorities know where this land is. Local
:43:40. > :43:44.authorities are certainly know that and they will be given the power if
:43:45. > :43:48.they are aware of pockets of land which would make good development
:43:49. > :43:51.for housing and if developers are sitting on it. Anything we can do to
:43:52. > :43:59.increase the supply and not just the demand has to be the right thing.
:44:00. > :44:03.The problem continually sits there. We have been flat`lining in terms of
:44:04. > :44:12.house`building under both governments. No, it has gone up 23%
:44:13. > :44:18.since we came into power. We have been building a lot more houses.
:44:19. > :44:22.Down in the first two years but it has gone up in the last year. We
:44:23. > :44:29.need a lot more affordable home `` homes to rent and we need more new
:44:30. > :44:35.towns. We need affordable new hands as well as market. We need them
:44:36. > :44:38.properly plan not urban stretch like out of Exeter.
:44:39. > :44:40.The Chancellor also moved to cut energy bills on Wednesday by
:44:41. > :44:43.freezing the tax on burning carbon. He insists the Government's
:44:44. > :44:46.commitment to support green energy remains unchanged. But voices in the
:44:47. > :44:49.renewable energy industry say it's another nail in the coffin for the
:44:50. > :44:50.Coalition's claim to be the greenest government ever. Tamsin Melville
:44:51. > :44:57.reports. Green campaigners were at
:44:58. > :45:05.Westminster this week ahead of EU carbon cutting talks. Wind farms `
:45:06. > :45:08.one way of tackling these climate issues, but the government is under
:45:09. > :45:13.increasing pressure on the number of applications.
:45:14. > :45:20.Small, rural communities are plunged into what can only be described as a
:45:21. > :45:27.miserable ordeal. Immediately, there is a cloud of uncertainty over their
:45:28. > :45:29.lives. A carbon tax freeze in the budget has left another question
:45:30. > :45:35.mark over the government's commitment to green energy. We need
:45:36. > :45:40.to think about where our energy is coming from. I think my complaint at
:45:41. > :45:43.this point is that the government's policy is all over the place and it
:45:44. > :45:52.really isn't coherent enough to enable business to plan. A few years
:45:53. > :45:55.ago, George Osborne announced a measure called the Carbon Price
:45:56. > :45:58.Support which increased the cost of burning fossil fuels and was opposed
:45:59. > :46:04.to encourage low`carbon plants like nuclear and wind farms. When he
:46:05. > :46:07.introduced it, George Osborne said investment in green energy would
:46:08. > :46:10.never be certain unless there was some stability to the price of
:46:11. > :46:16.carbon, but now he is scrapping his plan to increase the cost of high
:46:17. > :46:20.carbon energy. I am capping the carbon support rate
:46:21. > :46:23.of ?18 per tonne of carbon dioxide from 2016/17 for the rest of the
:46:24. > :46:32.decade, saving a mid`size manufacturer almost ?50,000 on their
:46:33. > :46:36.annual energy bill. The Chancellor is keen to stress it
:46:37. > :46:38.will not mean a reduction in investment of renewable energy, but
:46:39. > :46:44.the industry says it sends an unwelcome message to the sector. It
:46:45. > :46:47.is bad news for investors because a long`term framework was supposedly
:46:48. > :46:52.stable and robust but George Osborne has changed it at the first sign of
:46:53. > :46:55.trouble. It doesn't give a strong message that low`carbon investment
:46:56. > :47:01.in generation is a good place to put money. Late last year, the plug was
:47:02. > :47:05.pulled on the Atlantic Array project, plans for a massive wind
:47:06. > :47:07.farm off the north Devon coast. Developers said it was not
:47:08. > :47:14.financially viable and other ambitious South West projects have
:47:15. > :47:17.also fallen by the wayside. Plans for wind turbines on this old World
:47:18. > :47:24.War II airfield near Davidstow were scrapped earlier this year. There
:47:25. > :47:26.has been a lot of local opposition but the company behind the plans,
:47:27. > :47:29.Community Windpower, blames it on what it called the government's
:47:30. > :47:37.constantly shifting position on UK renewables. The company also closed
:47:38. > :47:44.its office in nearby Camelford that offered people energy advice. The
:47:45. > :47:47.Chancellor say his carbon tax freeze will save people ?15 a year on their
:47:48. > :47:50.energy bills and that it does still care about the climate but has to
:47:51. > :47:55.act to keep British business competitive.
:47:56. > :48:00.Tamsin Melville reporting and to discuss this we're joined by Mark
:48:01. > :48:03.Robins from the RSPB which is a member of the Climate Coalition ` a
:48:04. > :48:14.lobby group concerned about global warming. I noticed you were nodding
:48:15. > :48:18.away while the representative for saying it was a terrible thing. In
:48:19. > :48:24.fairness, a lot of people in the green lobby thought the carbon price
:48:25. > :48:28.was in itself a bad thing. The climate change committee and
:48:29. > :48:31.Greenpeace said it is precisely the sort of measure that destroys public
:48:32. > :48:36.confidence in environmental policies.
:48:37. > :48:43.I don't think there are many in the environment movement which `` who
:48:44. > :48:46.say it was a wonderful mechanism but taking it away creates mixed
:48:47. > :48:52.messages for those who want to do the right thing and develop low
:48:53. > :48:57.carbon. You are talking about general signals, but in terms of the
:48:58. > :49:08.specific policy, there is an argument that people like yourself
:49:09. > :49:14.yourself make that it doesn't cut emissions either. You have to be
:49:15. > :49:19.careful about who is picking up the cost of climate change. The Prime
:49:20. > :49:22.Minister himself reaffirmed his commitment to climate change being
:49:23. > :49:30.the biggest threat to humanity on this planet. It includes all life on
:49:31. > :49:35.this planet. This issue about who picks up the cost about climate
:49:36. > :49:39.change has been exposed this winter by those suffering from floods and
:49:40. > :49:44.the railway industry `` infrastructure. The south`west has
:49:45. > :49:49.been hit hard. The carbon price floor doesn't do anything for the
:49:50. > :49:55.environment but it puts energy bills up so it is a lose, lose policy? But
:49:56. > :50:00.George Osborne took it away and put nothing else in its place. Better
:50:01. > :50:06.mechanisms could be found but he has replaced it with nothing. OK, Anne
:50:07. > :50:12.Marie Morris not a ringing defence of the carbon price floor itself.
:50:13. > :50:16.Looking at previous cuts in renewable energy subsidies and
:50:17. > :50:20.reports there said that people were pulling out of investments. The
:50:21. > :50:28.general message to the renewable industry isn't great, is it? The
:50:29. > :50:32.comment a moment to bow `` the moment ago was incorrect, he has
:50:33. > :50:37.capped it. We have to bear in mind that renewables are important but
:50:38. > :50:41.wind doesn't blow all the time and the sun doesn't shine all the time
:50:42. > :50:45.so you still have to have the more old`fashioned carbon technologies
:50:46. > :50:49.and you cannot price them out of viability. The challenge is getting
:50:50. > :50:53.the level right and the chancellor admits he set it too high. We are
:50:54. > :50:57.not competitive with Europe at the moment. Our manufacturers are
:50:58. > :51:04.seriously thinking of going abroad because electricity is cheaper. But
:51:05. > :51:07.this government is chipping away, making various productions
:51:08. > :51:12.effectively in its financial commitment to renewables. A lot of
:51:13. > :51:16.people might look ahead and think, if the Conservatives get a majority
:51:17. > :51:23.and a fair number of people share the view that wind power is
:51:24. > :51:27.pointless, why would we invest? I would agree. Yes, there has been
:51:28. > :51:30.tinkering but would you rather a government put in a measure and
:51:31. > :51:37.ignored whether it was hitting the spot or would you rather have one
:51:38. > :51:40.who looked at it and said, we are trying to sport renewables but we
:51:41. > :51:45.don't want to penalise the carbon industry. We have to realise there
:51:46. > :51:51.has to be some energy to boil the kettle at other times. The result of
:51:52. > :51:59.the decision is to favour the dirtiest form of energy we have. It
:52:00. > :52:05.is a Chancellor `` disaster. You are nodding, but Labour isn't keen on
:52:06. > :52:14.the carbon price for itself, is it? Mark is right. It was the only
:52:15. > :52:18.instrument we had. The constant changing of the goalposts. In a
:52:19. > :52:22.country like Germany with a far higher level of renewable energy
:52:23. > :52:26.production, they have done it with long`term incentives for the
:52:27. > :52:31.renewable industry. When you have constant changing, where is the
:52:32. > :52:37.incentive for our fledgling renewable industry? It is important
:52:38. > :52:43.in our region. Big players in the industry say that. You have to look
:52:44. > :52:49.at who is saying it and from what interest? There are always two
:52:50. > :52:54.sides. But business likes of security and they like to know they
:52:55. > :52:57.can invest with as much security as they can reasonably expect? But in
:52:58. > :53:01.terms of the comment it will help the dirty energy, there is an
:53:02. > :53:08.additional provision in the budget which says Waite who have combined
:53:09. > :53:14.heat and power which is the most efficient, 55% efficiency, and there
:53:15. > :53:20.is a subsidy for them, and they have been exempt when complying with this
:53:21. > :53:24.carbon floor levy. We need to have a balance. This is relatively new
:53:25. > :53:29.territory and we have done more than Labour did in the grand scheme of
:53:30. > :53:32.things. I believe we are giving business security but we need to
:53:33. > :53:39.make sure it gives the right security and the right message.
:53:40. > :53:44.Investment in renewables has fallen from when we were in government. We
:53:45. > :53:48.are having fewer wind farms approved, onshore and offshore. We
:53:49. > :53:49.are going backwards. Now, our regular round`up of the
:53:50. > :54:00.political week in 60 seconds. Calls for a new railway mainline
:54:01. > :54:04.through Central Devon from the MP for Central Devon. Could I urge my
:54:05. > :54:07.right honourable friends to take the proposal seriously and perhaps to
:54:08. > :54:10.visit Okehampton with me to perhaps visit local businesses and others to
:54:11. > :54:15.hear their case for the advantages it presents to them.
:54:16. > :54:18.Calls to legalise euthanasia as a Dorset man gets a suspended prison
:54:19. > :54:25.sentence for the attempted murder of his mother. How much better would it
:54:26. > :54:28.have been if there was a law in this country where the lady herself could
:54:29. > :54:32.have requested upfront an assisted death.
:54:33. > :54:37.?120,000 of government money to support the Cornish language.
:54:38. > :54:42.The possibility of new flights from regional airports including Exeter
:54:43. > :54:47.and Newquay. We want all parts of our country to see better links with
:54:48. > :54:49.the markets of the future. And the Chancellor freezes duty on
:54:50. > :54:51.ordinary cider specifically, he said, to help flood sodden West
:54:52. > :55:09.Country farmers. You represent Dawlish. We've heard
:55:10. > :55:13.this call for an additional line through Central Devon. There is a
:55:14. > :55:22.risk that when a railway needs upgrading, we get involved in
:55:23. > :55:26.conflicting schemes and infighting? In large measure, MPs across the
:55:27. > :55:30.South West to recognise that line which goes through Dawlish is
:55:31. > :55:37.mission critical. Whatever else we do, that must be maintained. We are
:55:38. > :55:43.talking ten plus years and millions of pounds.
:55:44. > :55:49.Then, your constituency isn't affected but you took a keen
:55:50. > :55:53.interest? Yes and everyone will plead for their own line but what
:55:54. > :55:56.matters is that there is a resilient line for the whole of the
:55:57. > :56:02.south`west. We should wait for the outcome of the Department of
:56:03. > :56:09.Transport's review. We can't have you on the programme without talking
:56:10. > :56:15.about cider. A freeze on duty... I am still waiting for my crate of
:56:16. > :56:20.cider by the way! I am delighted the duty was present but puzzled by
:56:21. > :56:23.their duty wasn't. That's the
:56:24. > :56:24.decision, she will weigh up the factors. Andrew, back
:56:25. > :56:40.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the
:56:41. > :56:45.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.
:56:46. > :56:50.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would
:56:51. > :57:00.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never
:57:01. > :57:02.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make
:57:03. > :57:05.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the
:57:06. > :57:08.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been
:57:09. > :57:12.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a
:57:13. > :57:15.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary
:57:16. > :57:27.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!
:57:28. > :57:34.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.
:57:35. > :57:39.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the
:57:40. > :57:43.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:44. > :57:49.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:50. > :57:55.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the
:57:56. > :58:00.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact
:58:01. > :58:04.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is
:58:05. > :58:14.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the
:58:15. > :58:18.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of
:58:19. > :58:23.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of
:58:24. > :58:28.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.
:58:29. > :58:32.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a
:58:33. > :58:39.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,
:58:40. > :58:43.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you
:58:44. > :58:52.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by
:58:53. > :58:55.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the
:58:56. > :59:01.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made
:59:02. > :59:06.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour
:59:07. > :59:11.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in
:59:12. > :59:16.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to
:59:17. > :59:20.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love
:59:21. > :59:24.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market
:59:25. > :59:29.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going
:59:30. > :59:35.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party
:59:36. > :59:42.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When
:59:43. > :59:46.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly
:59:47. > :59:50.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on
:59:51. > :00:00.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow
:00:01. > :00:07.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There
:00:08. > :00:14.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the
:00:15. > :00:18.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow
:00:19. > :00:23.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand
:00:24. > :00:28.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some
:00:29. > :00:31.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is
:00:32. > :00:36.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom
:00:37. > :00:40.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax
:00:41. > :00:48.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the
:00:49. > :00:54.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about
:00:55. > :00:59.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of
:01:00. > :01:02.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still
:01:03. > :01:10.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady
:01:11. > :01:19.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road? The
:01:20. > :01:23.question is, how do people feel? How many people will still not be
:01:24. > :01:26.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not
:01:27. > :01:32.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at
:01:33. > :01:35.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are
:01:36. > :01:40.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?
:01:41. > :01:44.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is
:01:45. > :01:49.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they
:01:50. > :01:54.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how
:01:55. > :01:59.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been
:02:00. > :02:04.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are
:02:05. > :02:10.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a
:02:11. > :02:14.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake
:02:15. > :02:21.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast
:02:22. > :02:27.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out
:02:28. > :02:31.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the
:02:32. > :02:34.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the
:02:35. > :02:40.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the
:02:41. > :02:47.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are
:02:48. > :02:52.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It
:02:53. > :02:56.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we
:02:57. > :03:00.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding
:03:01. > :03:08.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are
:03:09. > :03:12.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted
:03:13. > :03:17.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority
:03:18. > :03:23.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and
:03:24. > :03:31.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is
:03:32. > :03:36.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have
:03:37. > :03:40.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have
:03:41. > :03:44.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction
:03:45. > :03:50.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the
:03:51. > :03:53.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of
:03:54. > :03:58.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something
:03:59. > :04:04.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued
:04:05. > :04:08.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary
:04:09. > :04:13.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch
:04:14. > :04:20.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic
:04:21. > :04:25.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots
:04:26. > :04:31.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You
:04:32. > :04:36.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next
:04:37. > :04:44.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can
:04:45. > :04:52.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The
:04:53. > :05:04.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy
:05:05. > :05:12.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for
:05:13. > :05:16.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very
:05:17. > :05:20.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to
:05:21. > :05:24.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well
:05:25. > :05:31.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour
:05:32. > :05:34.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of
:05:35. > :05:40.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you
:05:41. > :05:43.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the
:05:44. > :05:50.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind
:05:51. > :05:59.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the
:06:00. > :06:05.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by
:06:06. > :06:10.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known
:06:11. > :06:12.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy
:06:13. > :06:16.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for
:06:17. > :06:21.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is
:06:22. > :06:49.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford
:06:50. > :06:57.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you
:06:58. > :07:06.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You
:07:07. > :07:10.having fun doing this candidacy? I am doing the job of the politicians
:07:11. > :07:16.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of
:07:17. > :07:20.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in
:07:21. > :07:25.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about
:07:26. > :07:30.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You
:07:31. > :07:40.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole
:07:41. > :07:45.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to
:07:46. > :07:51.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are
:07:52. > :07:56.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you
:07:57. > :08:03.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With
:08:04. > :08:06.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job
:08:07. > :08:10.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am
:08:11. > :08:16.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing
:08:17. > :08:20.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not
:08:21. > :08:25.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this
:08:26. > :08:33.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying
:08:34. > :08:39.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we
:08:40. > :08:43.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning
:08:44. > :08:49.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are
:08:50. > :08:55.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need
:08:56. > :09:00.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as
:09:01. > :09:07.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would
:09:08. > :09:11.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter
:09:12. > :09:16.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like
:09:17. > :09:20.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are
:09:21. > :09:25.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand
:09:26. > :09:29.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making
:09:30. > :09:37.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a
:09:38. > :09:40.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to
:09:41. > :09:46.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out
:09:47. > :09:55.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to
:09:56. > :10:03.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they
:10:04. > :10:10.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people
:10:11. > :10:16.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been
:10:17. > :10:24.speaking to Salford councillors. They are going to lend me their
:10:25. > :10:30.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,
:10:31. > :10:35.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our
:10:36. > :10:41.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your
:10:42. > :10:49.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You
:10:50. > :10:55.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for
:10:56. > :11:02.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one
:11:03. > :11:04.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics
:11:05. > :11:07.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the
:11:08. > :11:12.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take
:11:13. > :11:15.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of
:11:16. > :11:23.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives
:11:24. > :11:31.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel
:11:32. > :11:38.Farage to a public, open debate, about whether she we should be out
:11:39. > :11:49.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 2009, I
:11:50. > :11:56.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel
:11:57. > :12:04.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg
:12:05. > :12:11.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can
:12:12. > :12:23.watch the debate at 7pm on the 2nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a
:12:24. > :12:26.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your
:12:27. > :12:29.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to
:12:30. > :12:31.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag
:12:32. > :12:35.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up
:12:36. > :12:43.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going
:12:44. > :12:49.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray
:12:50. > :12:53.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in
:12:54. > :12:58.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at
:12:59. > :13:03.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of
:13:04. > :13:07.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows
:13:08. > :13:11.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about
:13:12. > :13:19.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm
:13:20. > :13:26.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you
:13:27. > :13:30.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the
:13:31. > :13:36.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up
:13:37. > :13:49.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is
:13:50. > :13:53.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is
:13:54. > :13:56.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next
:13:57. > :13:58.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:59. > :14:04.Sunday Politics.