:00:37. > :00:44.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:45. > :00:48.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:49. > :00:52.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:53. > :00:57.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:58. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:03. > :01:05.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:06. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:19.campaign trail, he has been asking all the big
:01:20. > :01:20.campaign trail, he has been asking A special European election debate.
:01:21. > :01:24.I will be this week, a last look at the euro
:01:25. > :01:35.elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's
:01:36. > :01:40.32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got
:01:41. > :01:47.all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it
:01:48. > :01:51.is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local
:01:52. > :01:55.elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are
:01:56. > :02:00.the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some
:02:01. > :02:01.say that these European and local elections will not be much of a
:02:02. > :02:06.pointer to how the big one goes But pointer to how the big one goes. But
:02:07. > :02:11.that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from
:02:12. > :02:17.examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is
:02:18. > :02:37.local elections and European Parliament elections.
:02:38. > :02:45.These local results should be known by Friday. In the European
:02:46. > :02:50.elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected
:02:51. > :02:54.across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But
:02:55. > :02:58.the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has
:02:59. > :03:03.closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are
:03:04. > :03:07.in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the
:03:08. > :03:11.outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still
:03:12. > :03:15.wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is
:03:16. > :03:19.difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll
:03:20. > :03:23.which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and
:03:24. > :03:29.another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more
:03:30. > :03:36.slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,
:03:37. > :03:39.but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months
:03:40. > :03:45.ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the
:03:46. > :03:49.Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's
:03:50. > :03:52.share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,
:03:53. > :03:57.and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,
:03:58. > :04:01.whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be
:04:02. > :04:05.Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down
:04:06. > :04:10.from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one
:04:11. > :04:13.year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a
:04:14. > :04:20.significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be
:04:21. > :04:23.worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all
:04:24. > :04:28.have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are
:04:29. > :04:33.saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is
:04:34. > :04:42.Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly
:04:43. > :04:51.resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and
:04:52. > :04:55.incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,
:04:56. > :05:00.but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,
:05:01. > :05:04.to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,
:05:05. > :05:09.Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which
:05:10. > :05:16.makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but
:05:17. > :05:18.whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent
:05:19. > :05:23.event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the
:05:24. > :05:29.Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a
:05:30. > :05:33.national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly
:05:34. > :05:37.historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across
:05:38. > :05:45.Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --
:05:46. > :05:50.populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely
:05:51. > :05:53.ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general
:05:54. > :05:57.election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but
:05:58. > :06:00.they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works
:06:01. > :06:07.fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...
:06:08. > :06:12.We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.
:06:13. > :06:15.She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an
:06:16. > :06:21.earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what
:06:22. > :06:25.does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I
:06:26. > :06:32.think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been
:06:33. > :06:36.around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European
:06:37. > :06:40.elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are
:06:41. > :06:44.looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,
:06:45. > :06:49.getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes
:06:50. > :06:51.on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense
:06:52. > :06:55.policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want
:06:56. > :06:59.to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If
:07:00. > :07:09.we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.
:07:10. > :07:14.You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the
:07:15. > :07:17.stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and
:07:18. > :07:23.members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I
:07:24. > :07:27.would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You
:07:28. > :07:32.could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around
:07:33. > :07:37.for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you
:07:38. > :07:42.had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17
:07:43. > :07:46.Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either
:07:47. > :07:49.arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition
:07:50. > :07:53.we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist
:07:54. > :07:57.sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of
:07:58. > :08:01.that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I
:08:02. > :08:04.certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who
:08:05. > :08:11.have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even
:08:12. > :08:14.putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions
:08:15. > :08:20.or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the
:08:21. > :08:24.BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any
:08:25. > :08:30.other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something
:08:31. > :08:34.loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.
:08:35. > :08:38.We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of
:08:39. > :08:42.expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,
:08:43. > :08:50.who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a
:08:51. > :08:54.huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the
:08:55. > :08:56.European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television
:08:57. > :09:00.and radio and in the newspapers. more of them I think on television
:09:01. > :09:07.and radio and in the newspapers We are not a one-man band. Who runs
:09:08. > :09:11.your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he
:09:12. > :09:17.spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of
:09:18. > :09:20.the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have
:09:21. > :09:26.a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?
:09:27. > :09:31.The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the
:09:32. > :09:34.MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government
:09:35. > :09:39.Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your
:09:40. > :09:50.councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your
:09:51. > :09:54.local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe
:09:55. > :09:58.the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting
:09:59. > :10:03.for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on
:10:04. > :10:08.2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive --
:10:09. > :10:09.2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive - a
:10:10. > :10:12.lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.
:10:13. > :10:16.But when it comes to individual, But when it comes to individual
:10:17. > :10:20.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:21. > :10:25.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:26. > :10:29.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:30. > :10:34.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:35. > :10:38.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:39. > :10:43.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:44. > :10:47.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:48. > :10:52.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:53. > :10:57.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:10:58. > :11:01.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:02. > :11:06.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:07. > :11:11.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:12. > :11:16.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:17. > :11:20.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:21. > :11:24.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:25. > :11:32.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:33. > :11:37.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:38. > :11:41.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:42. > :11:45.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:46. > :11:49.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:50. > :11:58.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:11:59. > :12:02.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:03. > :12:08.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew,
:12:09. > :12:08.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it
:12:09. > :12:12.would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that
:12:13. > :12:18.we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying
:12:19. > :12:22.to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will
:12:23. > :12:26.negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best
:12:27. > :12:30.for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our
:12:31. > :12:35.country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in
:12:36. > :12:40.next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom
:12:41. > :12:44.flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask
:12:45. > :12:54.questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in
:12:55. > :12:58.next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no
:12:59. > :13:03.good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I
:13:04. > :13:06.think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong
:13:07. > :13:09.with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different
:13:10. > :13:12.from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who
:13:13. > :13:18.wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is
:13:19. > :13:27.watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.
:13:28. > :13:35.Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a
:13:36. > :13:40.counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the
:13:41. > :13:47.campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight
:13:48. > :13:51.o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,
:13:52. > :13:56.how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit
:13:57. > :14:01.into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me
:14:02. > :14:08.luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in
:14:09. > :14:19.Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They
:14:20. > :14:25.have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up
:14:26. > :14:27.on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted
:14:28. > :14:31.of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of
:14:32. > :14:38.the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you
:14:39. > :14:46.had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,
:14:47. > :14:50.God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are
:14:51. > :14:56.heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss
:14:57. > :15:00.William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big
:15:01. > :15:05.questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are
:15:06. > :15:12.you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think
:15:13. > :15:17.something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what
:15:18. > :15:21.people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the
:15:22. > :15:33.flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.
:15:34. > :15:39.The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the
:15:40. > :15:47.Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the
:15:48. > :15:52.EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.
:15:53. > :15:59.This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?
:16:00. > :16:01.This is the best thing about And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:02. > :16:06.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which
:16:07. > :16:09.our next stop - the Green Party about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:10. > :16:19.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:20. > :16:25.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:26. > :16:32.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:33. > :16:40.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:41. > :16:46.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:47. > :16:49.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:50. > :16:52.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:53. > :17:05.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:06. > :17:11.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:12. > :17:17.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:18. > :17:24.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:25. > :17:31.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:32. > :17:36.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:37. > :17:41.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:42. > :17:47.minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for
:17:48. > :17:55.something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home
:17:56. > :18:08.for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy
:18:09. > :18:15.elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack
:18:16. > :18:18.Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens
:18:19. > :18:28.used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went
:18:29. > :18:35.wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs
:18:36. > :18:40.and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these
:18:41. > :18:43.elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party
:18:44. > :18:50.calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making
:18:51. > :18:56.poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:57. > :19:03.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:04. > :19:07.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:08. > :19:15.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:16. > :19:17.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:18. > :19:24.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:25. > :19:27.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:28. > :19:32.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:33. > :19:39.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:40. > :19:46.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:47. > :19:55.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:56. > :20:00.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:01. > :20:05.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:06. > :20:08.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:09. > :20:16.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:17. > :20:21.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:22. > :20:27.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:28. > :20:33.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:34. > :20:37.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:38. > :20:43.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:44. > :20:48.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:49. > :20:55.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:20:56. > :21:00.we are losing opportunities. 50% of we are losing opportunities. 50 of
:21:01. > :21:04.German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays
:21:05. > :21:15.within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you
:21:16. > :21:26.have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to
:21:27. > :21:32.do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world.
:21:33. > :21:37.At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal
:21:38. > :21:43.for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online,
:21:44. > :21:47.way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would
:21:48. > :21:52.be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run
:21:53. > :21:58.Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the
:21:59. > :22:03.local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with
:22:04. > :22:08.factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups
:22:09. > :22:13.against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to
:22:14. > :22:18.bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and
:22:19. > :22:23.Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has
:22:24. > :22:30.become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results
:22:31. > :22:36.going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives
:22:37. > :22:42.in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life
:22:43. > :22:47.is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's
:22:48. > :22:52.election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold
:22:53. > :22:57.up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge
:22:58. > :23:05.progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve
:23:06. > :23:10.Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to
:23:11. > :23:14.change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side
:23:15. > :23:23.of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was
:23:24. > :23:29.in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to
:23:30. > :23:33.Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you.
:23:34. > :23:33.Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you I'm
:23:34. > :24:07.Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:08. > :24:17.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:18. > :24:22.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:23. > :24:27.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:28. > :24:34.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:35. > :24:39.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:40. > :24:42.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:43. > :24:49.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:50. > :24:55.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:56. > :24:59.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:00. > :25:05.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:06. > :25:09.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:10. > :25:15.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:16. > :25:19.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:20. > :25:24.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:25. > :25:30.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:31. > :25:37.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:38. > :25:41.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:42. > :25:45.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:46. > :25:56.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:57. > :26:01.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:02. > :26:09.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:10. > :26:12.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:13. > :26:18.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:19. > :26:28.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:29. > :26:33.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:34. > :26:38.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:39. > :26:48.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:49. > :26:53.shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:54. > :27:03.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:04. > :27:07.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:08. > :27:12.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:13. > :27:18.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:19. > :27:22.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:23. > :27:26.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:27. > :27:31.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:32. > :27:35.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:36. > :27:40.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:41. > :27:49.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:50. > :27:56.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:57. > :28:00.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:01. > :28:10.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:11. > :28:13.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:14. > :28:19.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:20. > :28:24.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:25. > :28:29.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:30. > :28:37.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:38. > :28:47.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:48. > :28:56.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:57. > :29:05.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:06. > :29:09.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:10. > :29:14.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:15. > :29:17.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:18. > :29:23.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:24. > :29:27.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:28. > :29:33.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:34. > :29:38.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:39. > :29:44.given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:45. > :29:48.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:49. > :29:58.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:29:59. > :30:02.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:03. > :30:07.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:08. > :30:11.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:12. > :30:15.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:16. > :30:19.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:20. > :30:24.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:25. > :30:28.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:29. > :30:35.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:36. > :30:40.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:41. > :30:46.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:47. > :30:49.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:50. > :30:54.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:55. > :30:57.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:58. > :31:09.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:10. > :31:15.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:16. > :31:18.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:19. > :31:24.half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:25. > :31:29.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:30. > :31:37.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:38. > :31:41.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:42. > :31:45.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:46. > :31:50.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:51. > :31:53.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:54. > :31:58.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:31:59. > :32:02.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:03. > :32:06.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:07. > :32:14.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:15. > :32:20.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:21. > :32:23.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:24. > :32:29.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:30. > :32:33.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:34. > :32:38.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:39. > :32:43.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:44. > :32:46.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:47. > :32:51.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:52. > :32:55.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:56. > :33:01.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:02. > :33:04.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:05. > :33:07.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum We
:33:08. > :33:09.to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one we
:33:10. > :33:13.are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next
:33:14. > :33:17.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:18. > :33:24.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:25. > :33:30.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:31. > :33:36.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:37. > :33:39.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:40. > :33:49.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:50. > :33:55.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:56. > :33:58.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but
:33:59. > :34:02.partners with the Conservatives but we do not want to be distracted at
:34:03. > :34:05.the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.
:34:06. > :34:13.Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been
:34:14. > :34:16.the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories
:34:17. > :34:21.want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.
:34:22. > :34:24.We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and
:34:25. > :34:28.many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.
:34:29. > :34:33.Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be
:34:34. > :34:39.willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was
:34:40. > :34:45.not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you
:34:46. > :34:56.agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am
:34:57. > :34:59.going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one
:35:00. > :35:04.of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on
:35:05. > :35:08.substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign
:35:09. > :35:13.for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am
:35:14. > :35:17.confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British
:35:18. > :35:21.people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial
:35:22. > :35:24.repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime
:35:25. > :35:30.Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been
:35:31. > :35:33.in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of
:35:34. > :35:40.hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that
:35:41. > :35:43.is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with
:35:44. > :35:50.complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we
:35:51. > :35:54.will be successful. Hilary Benn what is the difference between your
:35:55. > :36:00.attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been
:36:01. > :36:05.very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further
:36:06. > :36:09.powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British
:36:10. > :36:14.people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our
:36:15. > :36:19.position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We
:36:20. > :36:25.would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in
:36:26. > :36:27.the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains
:36:28. > :36:35.and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want
:36:36. > :36:41.to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and
:36:42. > :36:48.electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that
:36:49. > :36:52.argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell
:36:53. > :37:00.my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --
:37:01. > :37:03.entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,
:37:04. > :37:07.because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union
:37:08. > :37:13.would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because
:37:14. > :37:24.so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly
:37:25. > :37:28.globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.
:37:29. > :37:32.We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most
:37:33. > :37:36.important reason that people should vote for you in the local election?
:37:37. > :37:41.Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the
:37:42. > :37:45.politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with
:37:46. > :37:48.taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down
:37:49. > :37:51.the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have
:37:52. > :37:56.been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will
:37:57. > :38:00.produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the
:38:01. > :38:03.housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats
:38:04. > :38:14.and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I
:38:15. > :38:17.can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour.
:38:18. > :38:23.You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:24. > :38:55.`` welcome to a special European Sunday Politics Scotland.
:38:56. > :39:00.`` welcome to a special European election edition. We will be
:39:01. > :39:03.from four of the candidates standing in the poll. Cornwall is as poor now
:39:04. > :39:13.as it was what first attracted the highest level European fundhng over
:39:14. > :39:17.a decade ago. Since the decline of the traditional
:39:18. > :39:24.industries, the economy has struggled, and despite around ?
:39:25. > :39:27.million since the 90s, it rdmains the poorest region in the UK. This
:39:28. > :39:34.building is partly funded by European Monday `` money. Ldt's go
:39:35. > :39:36.in and find out what people here think the European Union has done
:39:37. > :39:40.for Cornwall. The European Tnion think the European Union has done
:39:41. > :39:45.for Cornwall. The European Union has been good for Cornwall, it was
:39:46. > :39:48.unanimous, and it has been crucial to staying local. I'd doubt very
:39:49. > :39:50.much if we would have studidd to staying local. I'd doubt very
:39:51. > :39:53.much if we would have studied `` I doubt very much we would have had
:39:54. > :39:59.anywhere near the success. Think we would have had to move to London or
:40:00. > :40:04.another part of Europe. The stamp of European Union aid is a familiar
:40:05. > :40:08.sight across Cornwall. The Eden Project, superfast broadband, but
:40:09. > :40:09.with the county still unable Project, superfast broadband, but
:40:10. > :40:10.with the county still unabld to Project, superfast broadband, but
:40:11. > :40:14.with the county still unable to go it alone, some ask if the h`nd`outs
:40:15. > :40:19.are really working. At the start of the investment programme in 199 ,
:40:20. > :40:21.the economic performance of Cornwall was measured at 66% of the European
:40:22. > :40:25.was measured at 66% of the Duropean average. In 2011, it was at 64%.
:40:26. > :40:29.average. In 2011, it was at 64% Here, where there is some of the
:40:30. > :40:31.highest information levels hn Cornwall, the benefit of the
:40:32. > :40:36.Cornwall, the benefit of thd millions is parlous `` is far less
:40:37. > :40:39.millions is parlous `` is f`r less positive. We do not get superfast
:40:40. > :40:42.positive. We do not get supdrfast broadband down our way. A way
:40:43. > :40:43.positive. We do not get superfast broadband down our way. A w`y to
:40:44. > :40:50.broadband down our way. A way to improve Cornwall is more jobs. It is
:40:51. > :40:54.hoped the next funding round of ?500 million will build on investment
:40:55. > :40:57.ready made to create more jobs, and both sides of the in or out debate
:40:58. > :41:00.are also hoping this will bd the are also hoping this will bd the
:41:01. > :41:06.last slice of European aid that has to come Cornwall's way.
:41:07. > :41:07.With me to discuss this further our four candidates hoping for your vote
:41:08. > :41:14.on Thursday. Julia Reed frol the four candidates hoping for xour vote
:41:15. > :41:15.on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK on Thursday. Julia Reed from the UK
:41:16. > :41:22.Independence Party, James Krakouer from the Conservatives, and Clare
:41:23. > :41:27.Moody from Labour. The Lib Dems are seen as the most European
:41:28. > :41:33.enthusiastic Hardy. We are now to the third charge of top`levdl
:41:34. > :41:36.European funding. You have to ask yourself, what would have happened
:41:37. > :41:42.to Cornwall had that money not been coming from the European Unhon? Not
:41:43. > :41:47.much has changed. It has. I've visited some businesses in Cornwall
:41:48. > :41:50.and have been hugely impressed by their dynamism. Cornwall is on the
:41:51. > :41:53.verge of taking off, partictlarly their dynamism. Cornwall is on the
:41:54. > :41:54.verge of taking off, particularly in verge of taking off, particularly in
:41:55. > :41:58.Green technologies. In an arm as amount of money has gone into the
:41:59. > :42:05.combined universities of Cornwall. That is paying dividends in returns
:42:06. > :42:06.from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also well
:42:07. > :42:08.from student to pay fees and of course the staff are also wdll paid.
:42:09. > :42:10.You are basically saying that course the staff are also well paid.
:42:11. > :42:12.You are basically saying th`t none You are basically saying that none
:42:13. > :42:14.of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had pulled
:42:15. > :42:15.of this money would have happened if UK Independence Party had ptlled us
:42:16. > :42:16.UK Independence Party had pulled us out of Europe. So there is `
:42:17. > :42:16.UK Independence Party had ptlled us out of Europe. So there is a big
:42:17. > :42:18.dividend from this. If we h`d out of Europe. So there is ` big
:42:19. > :42:23.dividend from this. If we h`d not gone into the common market, we
:42:24. > :42:33.would still have maintained control over our fishing limits, and UK
:42:34. > :42:37.water has 60% of fish stocks and that has brought in a lot of money
:42:38. > :42:43.into Cornwall, and although Cornwall debts development money, it is
:42:44. > :42:47.matched funding, and we do not actually get a say in where that
:42:48. > :42:52.goes. It is difficult to criticise things like high`speed broadband, or
:42:53. > :42:58.the Eden project, the University for Cornwall. But for each pound that's
:42:59. > :43:03.Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. If
:43:04. > :43:06.Cornwall gets, it has actually cost the UK government over ?2. Hf we
:43:07. > :43:14.were not paying that extra tom of the government could have put that
:43:15. > :43:20.money straight into Cornwall, `` the extra money. The economy would be
:43:21. > :43:23.far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy
:43:24. > :43:23.far better if its connections with London were quicker than they are
:43:24. > :43:26.far better if its connections with London were quicker than thdy are at
:43:27. > :43:29.the moment. Later presided over the first and second tranche of funding
:43:30. > :43:35.in Cornwall. Would it have been better if we had invested
:43:36. > :43:36.domestically? I have seen it since 2010 what would have happendd if we
:43:37. > :43:40.2010 what would have happened if we had not have the European money in
:43:41. > :43:46.Cornwall. We saw this after the storm damage, the impact of Cornwall
:43:47. > :43:49.`` in Cornwall of that storl damage, and the councils still do not know
:43:50. > :43:53.where they are going to get the funding, whether they are going to
:43:54. > :43:56.get the funding, to repair that storm damage. What we have seen in
:43:57. > :44:01.Cornwall is that it is lagging behind in its figures and the rest
:44:02. > :44:08.of the country, and in the to thousands, once Gross got going
:44:09. > :44:12.again, once he got the fundhng through... Your government in
:44:13. > :44:14.through... Your government hn Westminster at the time could have
:44:15. > :44:17.made this decision. They did make the decision to make sure that
:44:18. > :44:22.Cornwall got the money. Clearly Cornwall got the money. Clearly
:44:23. > :44:28.there is the match funding. But I repeat the point that, actu`lly
:44:29. > :44:29.Cornwall gets left behind in Westminster decisions, and we have
:44:30. > :44:33.seen that with the storm damage, seen that with the storm damage,
:44:34. > :44:35.with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects likd
:44:36. > :44:35.with the cutting funding from infrastructure projects like the
:44:36. > :44:38.infrastructure projects likd the link Road further west in Cornwall.
:44:39. > :44:41.I'd know one of your fellow candidates takes the view that it
:44:42. > :44:45.would be better if we made all of would be better if we made `ll of
:44:46. > :44:54.these decisions about funding in Britain, but Claire makes a good
:44:55. > :44:57.point, doesn't she? It is an interesting point. Go back to
:44:58. > :45:02.fisheries. The common fisheries policy controls 50% of the water
:45:03. > :45:08.controls and we now have 10$, and it controls and we now have 10$, and it
:45:09. > :45:15.is a big campaign policy of UKIP, but they abstained on this policy.
:45:16. > :45:17.When it comes to regional ftnding, it has been hugely successful,
:45:18. > :45:19.it has been hugely successftl, especially the amount that has gone
:45:20. > :45:23.in and the smaller scale, like especially the amount that has gone
:45:24. > :45:23.in and the smaller scale, lhke a in and the smaller scale, lhke a
:45:24. > :45:33.road that was funded by EU money, road that was funded by EU loney,
:45:34. > :45:36.and there are some good projects. Idling small`business red tape, but
:45:37. > :45:41.Idling small`business red t`pe, but the regional development fund, which
:45:42. > :45:46.put into a road network that is put into a road network that is
:45:47. > :45:47.vastly underused, so the ond advantage of lessons to giving
:45:48. > :45:48.vastly underused, so the one advantage of lessons to givhng money
:45:49. > :45:52.advantage of lessons to giving money is that it would be controlling
:45:53. > :45:59.directly where it goes, if ht goes to fishing projects `` efficient
:46:00. > :46:00.projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from that
:46:01. > :46:03.projects. The point about the road, Westminster funding from th`t has
:46:04. > :46:07.been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can
:46:08. > :46:07.been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You c`n go
:46:08. > :46:10.been cut since 2010, said that underlines the point. You can go to
:46:11. > :46:14.the next topic that we are going to discuss, immigration, which is going
:46:15. > :46:20.to be about transitional controls. We need to move towards that. But
:46:21. > :46:23.before that, I would like to speak to the lead candidate `` I spoke to
:46:24. > :46:24.the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is
:46:25. > :46:25.the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It hs a
:46:26. > :46:30.the lead candidate of the Green Party about this issue. It is a bit
:46:31. > :46:33.of a mistake. A lot of what we get from Europe is priceless, and one of
:46:34. > :46:34.the most priceless thing to get is the piece that Europe is guaranteed,
:46:35. > :46:37.the piece that Europe is gu`ranteed, so it doesn't make sense to divide
:46:38. > :46:41.what we get from Europe and the prices on it. We are strongly in
:46:42. > :46:43.favour of the convergence ftnding favour of the convergence funding
:46:44. > :46:49.and we think generally our membership of the UKIP has brought
:46:50. > :46:54.us a lot of benefits. There are three other parties standing on the
:46:55. > :46:56.Southwest. The British National Party, the Independence party and
:46:57. > :46:57.the English Democrats. There Party, the Independence party and
:46:58. > :46:57.the English Democrats. Therd is Party, the Independence party and
:46:58. > :46:58.the English Democrats. There is a the English Democrats. There is a
:46:59. > :46:59.full list on the BBC websitd. the English Democrats. Therd is a
:47:00. > :47:04.full list on the BBC website. The issue of immigration from the
:47:05. > :47:06.European Union has been pushed to the top of the agenda by one party,
:47:07. > :47:10.the top of the agenda by ond party, Julia's, and this campaign. But how
:47:11. > :47:12.many immigrants are actually Julia's, and this campaign. But how
:47:13. > :47:12.many immigrants are actuallx coming many immigrants are actually coming
:47:13. > :47:14.and whether their presence hs a many immigrants are actuallx coming
:47:15. > :47:22.and whether their presence is a good or bad thing is hotly disputed.
:47:23. > :47:27.They are big, they are bold, and the message seems to be heading home on
:47:28. > :47:32.the streets of Plymouth. Foreigners getting all the jobs. Not much for
:47:33. > :47:38.getting all the jobs. Not mtch for the British. An unlimited following
:47:39. > :47:39.implement. This woman has bden the British. An unlimited following
:47:40. > :47:42.implement. This woman has been out implement. This woman has bden out
:47:43. > :47:44.of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over.
:47:45. > :47:44.of work for two years. I am not racist but they are taking over It
:47:45. > :47:51.racist but they are taking over. It is full of foreigners. They have
:47:52. > :47:57.shops here, Polish shops in that. It is hard to get a job. It is the
:47:58. > :48:00.limit is home to around 9000 people born in other parts of the EU. That
:48:01. > :48:02.born in other parts of the DU. That is just every 3% of the city's
:48:03. > :48:05.population. There are a dozdn is just every 3% of the citx's
:48:06. > :48:06.population. There are a dozen shops population. There are a dozen shops
:48:07. > :48:15.in the city catering for East European tastes. A jar of both Gary
:48:16. > :48:24.and pickled vegetables. A Romanian couple of things this shop `t the
:48:25. > :48:28.end of last year. We decided to open the shop, thinking on the 1st of
:48:29. > :48:30.January, work restrictions would lift and more people would come, but
:48:31. > :48:31.lift and more people would come but there were already enough people
:48:32. > :48:38.there were already enough pdople here for the business to be viable.
:48:39. > :48:39.Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania wdre
:48:40. > :48:42.Since those restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania were eased
:48:43. > :48:49.in January, 1000 you are workers have arrived in the UK. Not quite
:48:50. > :48:56.what EU predicted but it's lead up is not budging. They don't appear to
:48:57. > :49:02.have increased since then. But from the rest of Europe, the numbers are
:49:03. > :49:06.going up rapidly. We have no control. 485 million people have the
:49:07. > :49:10.ability to come and work in person. For one of his workers living in
:49:11. > :49:13.Britain, signs are scary. ILO For one of his workers living in
:49:14. > :49:15.Britain, signs are scary. ILO pappy. I have not done anything wrong here.
:49:16. > :49:21.This woman came here `` I al not This woman came here `` I al not
:49:22. > :49:26.happy. This woman came here a few years ago and works minimum wage in
:49:27. > :49:31.a care home. I did not take anyone's job. No`one wanted to take
:49:32. > :49:35.it. When you go to the job centre, there are thousands of jobs. The
:49:36. > :49:42.people do not want to work. I did not take an idea not feel guilty.
:49:43. > :49:45.Research from Oxford University suggests most immigrants are in
:49:46. > :49:47.suggests most immigrants ard in work, with less than 5% claiming job
:49:48. > :49:49.seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone work, with less than 5% clahming job
:49:50. > :49:53.seeker a lower ones. Not everyone in seeker a lower ones. Not evdryone in
:49:54. > :49:54.the blaze immigrants. I think the migrants are coming here and doing
:49:55. > :49:59.jobs that people in this country jobs that people in this country
:50:00. > :50:02.will not do anymore. They would rather claim their benefits than
:50:03. > :50:04.actually work. Compared to other parts of the UK, the immigr`tion
:50:05. > :50:09.parts of the UK, the immigration experience so far in the Sotthwest
:50:10. > :50:11.is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happening
:50:12. > :50:12.is tiny. We will get a complete breakdown of what is happenhng when
:50:13. > :50:18.the official immigration figures are released on Thursday.
:50:19. > :50:26.Here is the Green Party's leader. released on Thursday.
:50:27. > :50:26.Here is the Green Party's ldader. I Here is the Green Party's ldader. I
:50:27. > :50:27.think the way his argument is Here is the Green Party's leader. I
:50:28. > :50:30.think the way his argument hs being think the way his argument is being
:50:31. > :50:33.used is disgraceful and sochally used is disgraceful and socially
:50:34. > :50:34.destructive. `` this argument. British people are basically
:50:35. > :50:40.British people are basicallx tolerant. I think what lies behind
:50:41. > :50:44.it is the fact that when a lot of much poorer countries were brought
:50:45. > :50:47.into Europe, there was no attempt to equalize the way in which we worked
:50:48. > :50:52.across the European Union, so left`wing governments left this
:50:53. > :50:55.country quite honourable, and we might look at greater equality
:50:56. > :50:58.across Europe in terms of w`ges and across Europe in terms of w`ges and
:50:59. > :50:59.conditions of employment so there is much less pressure for people to
:51:00. > :51:06.move. We have four parties `re move. We have four parties `re
:51:07. > :51:12.presented here in the studio. I want to come to you, Julia. You have made
:51:13. > :51:14.this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to bd
:51:15. > :51:17.this the centrepiece of your campaign, and it seems to be a
:51:18. > :51:22.numbers game for you, the htge influx of all variants and
:51:23. > :51:31.Romanians. `` Bulgarians. In reality, the scaremongering is a
:51:32. > :51:36.gross exaggeration, isn't it? We have not said that. The poster says
:51:37. > :51:40.that pleasantly. As far as the Romanian and Bulgarian immigration
:51:41. > :51:47.is concerned, although it is down for thousands of sharper 4000 on the
:51:48. > :51:51.previous three`month tomatods up 29,000 the `` although it was down
:51:52. > :51:58.4000 the previous three`month period, it was actually up. In
:51:59. > :52:04.September 2013, over 200,000 people will stop at the time that the
:52:05. > :52:09.countries were able to come and work here, an economist actually says
:52:10. > :52:10.there is no shortage of workers are skills. There was a shortage of
:52:11. > :52:15.skills. There was a shortagd of people prepared to work long hours
:52:16. > :52:19.for very little money, and the jobs that a lot of the immigrants are
:52:20. > :52:21.taking, a lot of our people can t afford to live on them. The point
:52:22. > :52:26.is, these quite specific predictions is, these quite specific predictions
:52:27. > :52:30.you have made about numbers have been proven wrong. If you say that
:52:31. > :52:35.this freedom of movement in the European Union, a lot of people
:52:36. > :52:38.would say, that is OK, but did he say 26 million people are going to
:52:39. > :52:42.come here and take our jobs and live on our benefits, they are going to
:52:43. > :52:44.be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of the
:52:45. > :52:48.be worried. It matters whether that is true or not. A lot of thd jobs
:52:49. > :52:50.available in this country... What about these numbers? You said 26
:52:51. > :52:55.about these numbers? You sahd 2 million people want to come to
:52:56. > :52:59.Britain. There are 26 million people unemployed currently in the EU.
:53:00. > :53:03.Through the European jobs portal, they can apply for jobs that are not
:53:04. > :53:14.even advertised in this country and the EU will pay them money. Will
:53:15. > :53:19.they take the jobs in care homes? Most of these people are working on
:53:20. > :53:23.the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of pdople
:53:24. > :53:23.the minimum wage or less, and when you realise that's 20% of people in
:53:24. > :53:25.you realise that's 20% of pdople in work are in work benefits because
:53:26. > :53:30.work are in work benefits bdcause they cannot earn enough to live on,
:53:31. > :53:34.this is a problem, so when they say that British people do not want to
:53:35. > :53:35.do these jobs, and lots of cases, it is because they can't afford to take
:53:36. > :53:40.those jobs. Clare Moody frol is because they can't afford to take
:53:41. > :53:46.those jobs. Clare Moody from Labour, if that is true, that seems very
:53:47. > :53:49.unfair, doesn't it? I am interested that Julia raises those issues,
:53:50. > :53:53.because they are very different from the ones that appear to be ones
:53:54. > :53:58.raised on the posters, and what I would say is that Labour has the
:53:59. > :54:05.answers to those issues in terms of, for example, agencies advertising
:54:06. > :54:06.abroad to bring people just into jobs in the UK from abroad, and we
:54:07. > :54:08.would stop that from happenhng jobs in the UK from abroad, and we
:54:09. > :54:10.would stop that from happening so would stop that from happenhng so
:54:11. > :54:13.that jobs would be equally advertised in this country as
:54:14. > :54:13.that jobs would be equally advertised in this country `s they
:54:14. > :54:15.advertised in this country as they are overseas. Indeed, we have
:54:16. > :54:18.policies to promote the living wage. policies to promote the livhng wage.
:54:19. > :54:22.I am very concerned about the suppression of wages in the
:54:23. > :54:27.development of the hourglass economy, where you have numerous
:54:28. > :54:34.jobs that are low`paid and then completely separate, higher skilled,
:54:35. > :54:41.higher paid work, and we nedd more connection. So these are serious
:54:42. > :54:44.issues that Julia is raising? The issues about wages, I am not sure
:54:45. > :54:49.they are entirely linked to immigration, the point about
:54:50. > :54:52.agencies, we have made that point. It is actually a more structural
:54:53. > :54:55.point around the economy and one that I believe we have to address
:54:56. > :55:00.and that the Labour Party h`s certainly raised policies over.
:55:01. > :55:03.James, the present Conservative government has set itself a very
:55:04. > :55:10.ambitious target to bring immigration down. It is feeling
:55:11. > :55:14.pretty dismally, isn't it? `` sailing. The UK economy is the
:55:15. > :55:20.fastest growing in the G7 economies, and if you remember the European
:55:21. > :55:24.Union, it you would had to a Union, it you would had to `
:55:25. > :55:30.prosperous country rather than not, and before the Eastern bloc came in
:55:31. > :55:33.in 2004, immigration was an issue, because the countries that were in
:55:34. > :55:35.were of a similar economic standing, whereas as soon as he got dhfferent
:55:36. > :55:38.levels, there is going to be whereas as soon as he got different
:55:39. > :55:41.levels, there is going to bd a new levels, there is going to bd a new
:55:42. > :55:52.from east to west. It is a problem if you are trying to have
:55:53. > :55:54.transitional controls. This has been not to the UKIP, and EU havd two
:55:55. > :55:56.things of the election campaign, things of the election camp`ign
:55:57. > :56:01.they have highlighted this as things of the election campaign,
:56:02. > :56:04.they have highlighted this as a referendum election when it is not,
:56:05. > :56:07.and they will never be able to have the power to offer a referendum
:56:08. > :56:14.Nigel Farage is the only member Nigel Farage is the only member
:56:15. > :56:20.anyone can name. They are not going to have that. It is also creating an
:56:21. > :56:27.atmosphere of hatred and it is not. It is a very tolerant society.
:56:28. > :56:32.Workers will come here and then expect... They do have forehgn
:56:33. > :56:37.expect... They do have foreign workers but they are working long
:56:38. > :56:41.hours on low wages, and the sad thing is, British people do not want
:56:42. > :56:46.to do it, because you can claim benefits. You want people to come
:56:47. > :56:47.here who are going to work and contribution to society. Yot
:56:48. > :56:47.here who are going to work `nd contribution to society. You don't
:56:48. > :56:51.contribution to society. Yot don't want people coming here and doing
:56:52. > :56:57.nothing. Putting that points to Julia, he said it is creating an
:56:58. > :57:01.atmosphere of hatred `` you said it was creating an atmosphere of
:57:02. > :57:05.hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality is,
:57:06. > :57:05.hatred? It is not about pulling the drawbridge up. The reality hs, the
:57:06. > :57:08.right people, the right moments drawbridge up. The reality is, the
:57:09. > :57:10.right people, the right momdnts on right people, the right moments on
:57:11. > :57:20.the Duke `` migrants, Duke contributes to our country. We want
:57:21. > :57:25.a points `based system similar to what they have in Australia. At the
:57:26. > :57:32.moment, because we have to have so many people come from Eastern
:57:33. > :57:33.Europe, we have no control, it limits the number of people that we
:57:34. > :57:35.can take from New Zealand, India limits the number of people that we
:57:36. > :57:41.can take from New Zealand, Hndia and can take from New Zealand, Hndia and
:57:42. > :57:47.Pakistan, so in actual fact, the `` so in actual fact... So you are
:57:48. > :57:50.using Australia as an example? We want a points `based system. You can
:57:51. > :57:53.just say what you want. I can want a points `based system. You can
:57:54. > :57:57.just say what you want. I can say, I am standing today for no income tax
:57:58. > :58:04.and everyone should pay no dual duty. I would be very popular. What
:58:05. > :58:07.would I'd be able to do it? The reality is, the number of people
:58:08. > :58:12.coming from the rest of the European Union into the UK is on the rise,
:58:13. > :58:21.isn't it? That is concerning some people. I've find it sad that UKIP
:58:22. > :58:27.have been blamed. As other people have said, we are up very tolerant
:58:28. > :58:31.nation, and a considerable number of Britons are working and living in
:58:32. > :58:32.Europe. What would you say to the people in the film who clearly are
:58:33. > :58:38.concerned about their emploxment concerned about their employment
:58:39. > :58:41.prospects? I come from a background in farming. It is not a question of
:58:42. > :58:44.just income. There are not many just income. There are not many
:58:45. > :58:50.British evil who want to go out and do hard manual work on a farm, ``
:58:51. > :58:54.British people who want to go out and do hard manual work on ` farm.
:58:55. > :58:59.and do hard manual work on a farm. It is not just a question of wages,
:59:00. > :59:03.it is a question of willingness to work, and the immigrants have shown
:59:04. > :59:09.that in bucketful, really. But if you are in a country with a
:59:10. > :59:10.struggling economy, whether it is southern Europe or Eastern Europe,
:59:11. > :59:12.southern Europe or Eastern Durope, you are likely to want to meet
:59:13. > :59:13.you are likely to want to mdet summer which is more economically
:59:14. > :59:16.summer which is more economhcally buoyant. Yes. The `` of move
:59:17. > :59:21.buoyant. Yes. The `` of movd somewhere. The big attraction is
:59:22. > :59:27.that we speak English. A lot of those people come here with the idea
:59:28. > :59:35.of learning to speak English. It is a two`way street. At the molent it
:59:36. > :59:37.is much more one way down the other. One of the problems we have in this
:59:38. > :59:41.country is that we do not have good country is that we do not h`ve good
:59:42. > :59:45.numbers about the numbers of people coming in and people going out. We
:59:46. > :59:47.register everyone coming in but we don't have a good system for
:59:48. > :59:51.counting people out, so we `ctually counting people out, so we `ctually
:59:52. > :59:58.don't really know a lot of this data. We do know, Julia, that
:59:59. > :00:04.actually, there are as many British people living and working elsewhere
:00:05. > :00:09.in the EU as there are people from elsewhere in the temp two working in
:00:10. > :00:17.Britain. It is about 2.2 million, but you are talking about British
:00:18. > :00:23.people spreading all out through the other EU 27. Other countries like
:00:24. > :00:27.Germany are popular destinations. It is not true that the UK takes
:00:28. > :00:35.everybody from Eastern Europe. I am just saying, the equivalent, 2.2
:00:36. > :00:38.million migrants, and there are 2.2 million Britons living in the rest
:00:39. > :00:42.of the European Union, but they are not all in one country. There are
:00:43. > :00:44.about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and thdy
:00:45. > :00:44.about a million in Spain but a lot of those are retired and they are
:00:45. > :00:46.of those are retired and thdy are not taking jobs, and because their
:00:47. > :00:49.not taking jobs, and becausd their pensions are paid from this country,
:00:50. > :00:58.they are actually taking money into Spain. They are a benefit. I am not
:00:59. > :01:00.saying that EU migrants are not 150,000 migrants in this country
:01:01. > :01:03.150,000 migrants in this cotntry right now, they only pay a pound a
:01:04. > :01:11.week because they are on such low wages. But they are using the health
:01:12. > :01:14.service in Spain. In this rdgion, hugely dependent on the migrant
:01:15. > :01:16.population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefit
:01:17. > :01:16.population, and the desire of Villy people in the UK that benefht from
:01:17. > :01:23.people in the UK that benefit from that. 2006, changed `` Spain change
:01:24. > :01:26.the law and you cannot get free health care over the age of 65. We
:01:27. > :01:27.have to leave it thank you very much indeed. Back to
:01:28. > :01:41.Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always
:01:42. > :01:46.insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own
:01:47. > :01:52.parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take
:01:53. > :01:57.them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer
:01:58. > :01:57.them seriously, so do we! Let's take votes might fall for the European
:01:58. > :02:02.Parliament. votes might fall for the European
:02:03. > :02:08.looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.
:02:09. > :02:12.According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into
:02:13. > :02:18.place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar
:02:19. > :02:34.picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by
:02:35. > :02:35.the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a
:02:36. > :02:41.long time. It keeps us in a job! We long time. It keeps us in a job We
:02:42. > :02:45.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.
:02:46. > :02:50.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the
:02:51. > :02:53.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is
:02:54. > :02:58.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of
:02:59. > :03:03.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more
:03:04. > :03:09.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are
:03:10. > :03:12.doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,
:03:13. > :03:14.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them
:03:15. > :03:21.democratically, demographically, democratically, demographically
:03:22. > :03:32.with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives
:03:33. > :03:35.them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are
:03:36. > :03:38.either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?
:03:39. > :03:45.Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.
:03:46. > :03:52.Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on
:03:53. > :04:03.Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What
:04:04. > :04:12.does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it
:04:13. > :04:18.change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,
:04:19. > :04:23.how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.
:04:24. > :04:28.Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and
:04:29. > :04:30.more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming
:04:31. > :04:38.fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does
:04:39. > :04:40.the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether
:04:41. > :04:46.UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We
:04:47. > :04:50.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the
:04:51. > :04:54.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But
:04:55. > :04:59.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different
:05:00. > :05:02.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single
:05:03. > :05:07.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting
:05:08. > :05:11.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.
:05:12. > :05:17.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of
:05:18. > :05:20.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class
:05:21. > :05:26.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the
:05:27. > :05:31.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who
:05:32. > :05:37.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,
:05:38. > :05:41.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are
:05:42. > :05:47.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,
:05:48. > :05:55.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote
:05:56. > :05:58.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any
:05:59. > :06:02.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much
:06:03. > :06:06.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that
:06:07. > :06:11.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic
:06:12. > :06:16.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would
:06:17. > :06:20.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on
:06:21. > :06:26.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not
:06:27. > :06:33.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are
:06:34. > :06:37.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to
:06:38. > :06:42.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage
:06:43. > :06:43.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people
:06:44. > :06:47.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, Britain, but still, most people
:06:48. > :06:48.don't care. Instinctively, Nick you don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you
:06:49. > :06:54.would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,
:06:55. > :06:59.then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on
:07:00. > :07:04.Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel
:07:05. > :07:09.Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted
:07:10. > :07:14.to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you
:07:15. > :07:18.have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.
:07:19. > :07:23.The really big question which we want to take out of these elections
:07:24. > :07:27.is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the
:07:28. > :07:31.Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of
:07:32. > :07:39.them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel
:07:40. > :07:42.Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to
:07:43. > :07:47.vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem
:07:48. > :07:51.for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many
:07:52. > :07:56.Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital
:07:57. > :08:01.home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,
:08:02. > :08:04.and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local
:08:05. > :08:11.election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not
:08:12. > :08:16.know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote
:08:17. > :08:19.in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in
:08:20. > :08:24.exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,
:08:25. > :08:28.I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in
:08:29. > :08:32.the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is
:08:33. > :08:35.crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well
:08:36. > :08:40.UKIP can last for the next year or UKIP can last for the next year, or
:08:41. > :08:45.indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the
:08:46. > :08:50.parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could
:08:51. > :08:55.be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a
:08:56. > :09:10.couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can
:09:11. > :09:13.see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP
:09:14. > :09:19.for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's
:09:20. > :09:24.policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr
:09:25. > :09:28.Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there
:09:29. > :09:35.will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot
:09:36. > :09:43.yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is
:09:44. > :09:47.plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the
:09:48. > :09:53.Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a
:09:54. > :09:59.Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for
:10:00. > :10:07.each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg
:10:08. > :10:10.loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially
:10:11. > :10:15.to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.
:10:16. > :10:18.I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two
:10:19. > :10:24.prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the
:10:25. > :10:29.leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick
:10:30. > :10:32.Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive
:10:33. > :10:37.proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.
:10:38. > :10:42.Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble
:10:43. > :10:46.for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the
:10:47. > :10:51.photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden
:10:52. > :10:57.with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to
:10:58. > :11:01.appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear
:11:02. > :11:05.rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know
:11:06. > :11:10.what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,
:11:11. > :11:14.all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of
:11:15. > :11:19.the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are
:11:20. > :11:22.immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really
:11:23. > :11:27.talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you
:11:28. > :11:31.say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this
:11:32. > :11:35.calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages
:11:36. > :11:43.and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The
:11:44. > :11:45.calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt
:11:46. > :11:50.Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack
:11:51. > :11:55.Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on
:11:56. > :12:00.that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,
:12:01. > :12:02.which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so
:12:03. > :12:07.elected in 2008 after the crash so everything he did was about rescue.
:12:08. > :12:11.The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power
:12:12. > :12:14.when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.
:12:15. > :12:19.Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -
:12:20. > :12:25.Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David
:12:26. > :12:31.Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that
:12:32. > :12:37.matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like
:12:38. > :12:42.Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who
:12:43. > :12:45.you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,
:12:46. > :12:50.the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not
:12:51. > :12:56.changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.
:12:57. > :13:02.Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing
:13:03. > :13:07.about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to
:13:08. > :13:12.use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you
:13:13. > :13:16.all go to the polls on Thursday There will be tonnes of election
:13:17. > :13:20.coverage and results on the BBC Thursday night, Friday, and of
:13:21. > :13:23.course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily
:13:24. > :13:27.Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next
:13:28. > :13:31.Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it
:13:32. > :14:08.is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.
:14:09. > :14:13.The consultation on closure is supposed to last for 45 days
:14:14. > :14:17.11 Yorkshire children have all been honoured for their courage...
:14:18. > :14:20.The hospital's own report identified systemic failures..
:14:21. > :14:23.The South East was battered by hurricane-force winds...
:14:24. > :14:26...but I do not want to see inappropriate solar developments
:14:27. > :14:31.'However you see the world, find the stories that matter to you.'
:14:32. > :14:35.It's time to join the BBC's news teams where you are.