:00:33. > :00:36.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:37. > :00:40.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",
:00:41. > :00:43.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost
:00:44. > :00:45.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.
:00:46. > :00:56.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules
:00:57. > :01:00.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle
:01:01. > :01:03.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House
:01:04. > :01:06.is making good on his campaign promises.
:01:07. > :01:09.As the Government gets into gear for two years
:01:10. > :01:12.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come
:01:13. > :01:15.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -
:01:16. > :01:20.and the costs and savings once we've left.
:01:21. > :01:37.The view of south-west farmers and exporters.
:01:38. > :01:40.And with me, as always, a trio of top political
:01:41. > :01:42.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn
:01:43. > :01:46.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,
:01:47. > :01:52.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House
:01:53. > :01:55.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way
:01:56. > :02:01.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,
:02:02. > :02:03.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.
:02:04. > :02:09.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn
:02:10. > :02:12.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted
:02:13. > :02:16.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally
:02:17. > :02:19.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -
:02:20. > :02:21.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy
:02:22. > :02:24.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked
:02:25. > :02:28.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.
:02:29. > :02:32.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,
:02:33. > :02:36.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.
:02:37. > :02:41.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very
:02:42. > :02:44.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,
:02:45. > :02:47.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.
:02:48. > :02:56.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,
:02:57. > :03:01.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,
:03:02. > :03:07.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.
:03:08. > :03:14.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water
:03:15. > :03:18.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a
:03:19. > :03:22.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has
:03:23. > :03:26.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.
:03:27. > :03:30.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite
:03:31. > :03:35.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The
:03:36. > :03:40.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.
:03:41. > :03:44.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere
:03:45. > :03:51.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but
:03:52. > :03:55.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of
:03:56. > :03:59.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would
:04:00. > :04:03.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do
:04:04. > :04:08.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the
:04:09. > :04:15.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on
:04:16. > :04:19.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article
:04:20. > :04:25.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to
:04:26. > :04:28.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the
:04:29. > :04:35.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of
:04:36. > :04:40.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered
:04:41. > :04:43.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is
:04:44. > :04:46.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are
:04:47. > :04:49.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial
:04:50. > :04:54.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called
:04:55. > :04:58.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a
:04:59. > :05:04.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is
:05:05. > :05:08.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for
:05:09. > :05:13.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's
:05:14. > :05:17.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain
:05:18. > :05:23.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting
:05:24. > :05:25.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have
:05:26. > :05:30.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be
:05:31. > :05:34.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The
:05:35. > :05:43.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of
:05:44. > :05:45.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates
:05:46. > :05:47.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved
:05:48. > :05:52.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I
:05:53. > :05:57.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the
:05:58. > :06:03.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not
:06:04. > :06:08.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on
:06:09. > :06:13.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little
:06:14. > :06:16.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say
:06:17. > :06:19.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in
:06:20. > :06:24.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week
:06:25. > :06:29.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.
:06:30. > :06:33.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people
:06:34. > :06:35.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week
:06:36. > :06:38.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -
:06:39. > :06:41.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters
:06:42. > :06:43.are published in the Government's new white paper.
:06:44. > :06:45.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU
:06:46. > :06:48.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing
:06:49. > :06:52.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,
:06:53. > :06:54.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.
:06:55. > :06:57.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.
:06:58. > :07:03.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -
:07:04. > :07:06.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.
:07:07. > :07:08.So, is that what's going to happen now?
:07:09. > :07:11.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them
:07:12. > :07:13.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts
:07:14. > :07:18.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.
:07:19. > :07:24.According to the most recent Treasury figures,
:07:25. > :07:27.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate
:07:28. > :07:29.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.
:07:30. > :07:35.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up
:07:36. > :07:38.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK
:07:39. > :07:40.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.
:07:41. > :07:43.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.
:07:44. > :07:46.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.
:07:47. > :07:52.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier
:07:53. > :07:56.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability
:07:57. > :07:59.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion
:08:00. > :08:04.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely
:08:05. > :08:09.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,
:08:10. > :08:12.but what does the money they are going to argue
:08:13. > :08:18.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's
:08:19. > :08:20.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are
:08:21. > :08:25.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,
:08:26. > :08:28.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten
:08:29. > :08:36.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded
:08:37. > :08:38.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.
:08:39. > :08:46.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros
:08:47. > :08:50.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again
:08:51. > :08:52.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.
:08:53. > :08:55.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.
:08:56. > :09:00.They include things like this building, the European Commission
:09:01. > :09:07.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion
:09:08. > :09:10.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.
:09:11. > :09:13.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.
:09:14. > :09:16.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks
:09:17. > :09:21.because actually they can hold us to ransom.
:09:22. > :09:24.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.
:09:25. > :09:26.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think
:09:27. > :09:29.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong
:09:30. > :09:32.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make
:09:33. > :09:37.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast
:09:38. > :09:42.contributions to the European Union every year will end.
:09:43. > :09:47.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up
:09:48. > :09:52.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.
:09:53. > :09:54.The Europol for example, that's the European crime
:09:55. > :09:59.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.
:10:00. > :10:03.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK
:10:04. > :10:05.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by
:10:06. > :10:14.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.
:10:15. > :10:23.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,
:10:24. > :10:25.trade, universities and, say, climate change,
:10:26. > :10:28.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.
:10:29. > :10:30.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.
:10:31. > :10:32.I wonder if they're going to let me in!
:10:33. > :10:35.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve
:10:36. > :10:38.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part
:10:39. > :10:43.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes
:10:44. > :10:45.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
:10:46. > :10:51.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,
:10:52. > :10:53.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,
:10:54. > :10:55.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent
:10:56. > :11:01.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some
:11:02. > :11:07.contribution for some preferential access to its market?
:11:08. > :11:09.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting
:11:10. > :11:12.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership
:11:13. > :11:20.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,
:11:21. > :11:23.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,
:11:24. > :11:25.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.
:11:26. > :11:28.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified
:11:29. > :11:31.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated
:11:32. > :11:33.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate
:11:34. > :11:39.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat
:11:40. > :11:41.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's
:11:42. > :11:51.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such
:11:52. > :12:09.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!
:12:10. > :12:11.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet
:12:12. > :12:14.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,
:12:15. > :12:16.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.
:12:17. > :12:24.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at
:12:25. > :12:28.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make
:12:29. > :12:31.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we
:12:32. > :12:37.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former
:12:38. > :12:41.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about
:12:42. > :12:45.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I
:12:46. > :12:49.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about
:12:50. > :12:51.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our
:12:52. > :12:56.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce
:12:57. > :13:01.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until
:13:02. > :13:05.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,
:13:06. > :13:11.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come
:13:12. > :13:15.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has
:13:16. > :13:19.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the
:13:20. > :13:22.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.
:13:23. > :13:26.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or
:13:27. > :13:29.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a
:13:30. > :13:32.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the
:13:33. > :13:38.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as
:13:39. > :13:43.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the
:13:44. > :13:47.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in
:13:48. > :13:54.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure
:13:55. > :13:58.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions
:13:59. > :14:00.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations
:14:01. > :14:04.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are
:14:05. > :14:10.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the
:14:11. > :14:15.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a
:14:16. > :14:19.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because
:14:20. > :14:24.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even
:14:25. > :14:29.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa
:14:30. > :14:32.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You
:14:33. > :14:38.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would
:14:39. > :14:44.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour
:14:45. > :14:49.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should
:14:50. > :14:52.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let
:14:53. > :14:56.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few
:14:57. > :14:59.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much
:15:00. > :15:05.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's
:15:06. > :15:08.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red
:15:09. > :15:13.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if
:15:14. > :15:17.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what
:15:18. > :15:21.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't
:15:22. > :15:25.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but
:15:26. > :15:29.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or
:15:30. > :15:35.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the
:15:36. > :15:40.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.
:15:41. > :15:46.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The
:15:47. > :15:50.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms
:15:51. > :15:53.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the
:15:54. > :15:58.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up
:15:59. > :16:02.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be
:16:03. > :16:08.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult
:16:09. > :16:12.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.
:16:13. > :16:16.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this
:16:17. > :16:21.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May
:16:22. > :16:25.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and
:16:26. > :16:33.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.
:16:34. > :16:35.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?
:16:36. > :16:41.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here
:16:42. > :16:48.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite
:16:49. > :16:52.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all
:16:53. > :16:56.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in
:16:57. > :17:01.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in
:17:02. > :17:05.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the
:17:06. > :17:10.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans
:17:11. > :17:16.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At
:17:17. > :17:23.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for
:17:24. > :17:29.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who
:17:30. > :17:33.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is
:17:34. > :17:38.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the
:17:39. > :17:42.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit
:17:43. > :17:49.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want
:17:50. > :17:54.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to
:17:55. > :17:58.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that
:17:59. > :18:03.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is
:18:04. > :18:10.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a
:18:11. > :18:15.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price
:18:16. > :18:20.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime
:18:21. > :18:25.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our
:18:26. > :18:29.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part
:18:30. > :18:32.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other
:18:33. > :18:36.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are
:18:37. > :18:39.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with
:18:40. > :18:42.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing
:18:43. > :18:47.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in
:18:48. > :18:51.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,
:18:52. > :18:57.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a
:18:58. > :19:04.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be
:19:05. > :19:08.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of
:19:09. > :19:13.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and
:19:14. > :19:17.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it
:19:18. > :19:23.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the
:19:24. > :19:28.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having
:19:29. > :19:31.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,
:19:32. > :19:36.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of
:19:37. > :19:39.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish
:19:40. > :19:43.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of
:19:44. > :19:46.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the
:19:47. > :19:50.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we
:19:51. > :19:56.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to
:19:57. > :20:00.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the
:20:01. > :20:03.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic
:20:04. > :20:20.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the
:20:21. > :20:23.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a
:20:24. > :20:25.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it
:20:26. > :20:28.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't
:20:29. > :20:31.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the
:20:32. > :20:35.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up
:20:36. > :20:38.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free
:20:39. > :20:44.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very
:20:45. > :20:48.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from
:20:49. > :20:53.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard
:20:54. > :20:56.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional
:20:57. > :21:02.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We
:21:03. > :21:04.will leave it there. Thank you, both.
:21:05. > :21:06.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants
:21:07. > :21:08.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim
:21:09. > :21:10.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.
:21:11. > :21:13.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it
:21:14. > :21:18.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets
:21:19. > :21:21.criticising what he says was a terrible decision
:21:22. > :21:23.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department
:21:24. > :21:31.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate
:21:32. > :21:42.the ban until it hears the case in full.
:21:43. > :21:47.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant
:21:48. > :21:50.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban
:21:51. > :21:52.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration
:21:53. > :22:05.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the
:22:06. > :22:11.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly
:22:12. > :22:17.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out
:22:18. > :22:26.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias
:22:27. > :22:30.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are
:22:31. > :22:34.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what
:22:35. > :22:40.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order
:22:41. > :22:47.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't
:22:48. > :22:56.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no
:22:57. > :23:01.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,
:23:02. > :23:07.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",
:23:08. > :23:10.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not
:23:11. > :23:16.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the
:23:17. > :23:24.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama
:23:25. > :23:28.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some
:23:29. > :23:32.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that
:23:33. > :23:36.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the
:23:37. > :23:42.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any
:23:43. > :23:48.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?
:23:49. > :23:51.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what
:23:52. > :23:56.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of
:23:57. > :24:01.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in
:24:02. > :24:08.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real
:24:09. > :24:14.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created
:24:15. > :24:19.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want
:24:20. > :24:27.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come
:24:28. > :24:33.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups
:24:34. > :24:38.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with
:24:39. > :24:42.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral
:24:43. > :24:46.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically
:24:47. > :24:51.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish
:24:52. > :24:55.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are
:24:56. > :24:59.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's
:25:00. > :25:03.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's
:25:04. > :25:08.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So
:25:09. > :25:19.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato
:25:20. > :25:25.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the
:25:26. > :25:29.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat
:25:30. > :25:36.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to
:25:37. > :25:41.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the
:25:42. > :25:48.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I
:25:49. > :25:59.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is
:26:00. > :26:04.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump
:26:05. > :26:07.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very
:26:08. > :26:14.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the
:26:15. > :26:19.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up
:26:20. > :26:25.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was
:26:26. > :26:30.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy
:26:31. > :26:34.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even
:26:35. > :26:38.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so
:26:39. > :26:43.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I
:26:44. > :26:46.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to
:26:47. > :26:51.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and
:26:52. > :26:55.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself
:26:56. > :26:59.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European
:27:00. > :27:04.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that
:27:05. > :27:09.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is
:27:10. > :27:14.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral
:27:15. > :27:21.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an
:27:22. > :27:25.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the
:27:26. > :27:30.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to
:27:31. > :27:36.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think
:27:37. > :27:39.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that
:27:40. > :27:45.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into
:27:46. > :27:51.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became
:27:52. > :27:55.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are
:27:56. > :27:58.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about
:27:59. > :28:03.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the
:28:04. > :28:06.interests of the people they represent. Given the
:28:07. > :28:09.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know
:28:10. > :28:14.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime
:28:15. > :28:21.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish
:28:22. > :28:25.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen
:28:26. > :28:30.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may
:28:31. > :28:34.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and
:28:35. > :28:40.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that
:28:41. > :28:45.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about
:28:46. > :28:51.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do
:28:52. > :28:55.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his
:28:56. > :29:02.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are
:29:03. > :29:06.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your
:29:07. > :29:11.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends
:29:12. > :29:16.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and
:29:17. > :29:23.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.
:29:24. > :29:31.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political
:29:32. > :29:32.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed
:29:33. > :29:35.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out
:29:36. > :29:38.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just
:29:39. > :29:41.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense
:29:42. > :29:44.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost
:29:45. > :29:47.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's
:29:48. > :29:49.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce
:29:50. > :29:51.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid
:29:52. > :29:57.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way
:29:58. > :30:00.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures
:30:01. > :30:04.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised
:30:05. > :30:06.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas
:30:07. > :30:10.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be
:30:11. > :30:12.relaxation of building height restrictions,
:30:13. > :30:14.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height
:30:15. > :30:17.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek
:30:18. > :30:23.planning permission. Other elements trialled include
:30:24. > :30:27.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land
:30:28. > :30:29.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway
:30:30. > :30:31.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it
:30:32. > :30:39.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically
:30:40. > :30:42.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability
:30:43. > :30:44.for young families, alongside its proposed ban
:30:45. > :30:52.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,
:30:53. > :31:01.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home
:31:02. > :31:04.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now
:31:05. > :31:09.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the
:31:10. > :31:13.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on
:31:14. > :31:18.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So
:31:19. > :31:21.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we
:31:22. > :31:26.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do
:31:27. > :31:29.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for
:31:30. > :31:33.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who
:31:34. > :31:37.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,
:31:38. > :31:42.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this
:31:43. > :31:47.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have
:31:48. > :31:51.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't
:31:52. > :31:55.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the
:31:56. > :31:59.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard
:32:00. > :32:03.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have
:32:04. > :32:07.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of
:32:08. > :32:11.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You
:32:12. > :32:17.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%
:32:18. > :32:21.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent
:32:22. > :32:25.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the
:32:26. > :32:28.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised
:32:29. > :32:33.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there
:32:34. > :32:40.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional
:32:41. > :32:44.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on
:32:45. > :32:49.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional
:32:50. > :32:51.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones
:32:52. > :32:54.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in
:32:55. > :32:59.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is
:33:00. > :33:02.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see
:33:03. > :33:06.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the
:33:07. > :33:17.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to
:33:18. > :33:20.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other
:33:21. > :33:22.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money
:33:23. > :33:25.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We
:33:26. > :33:28.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large
:33:29. > :33:35.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable
:33:36. > :33:41.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%
:33:42. > :33:45.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it
:33:46. > :33:50.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of
:33:51. > :33:53.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what
:33:54. > :33:56.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or
:33:57. > :34:00.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable
:34:01. > :34:04.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white
:34:05. > :34:08.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power
:34:09. > :34:16.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new
:34:17. > :34:19.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year
:34:20. > :34:24.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.
:34:25. > :34:27.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the
:34:28. > :34:30.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new
:34:31. > :34:35.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,
:34:36. > :34:40.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous
:34:41. > :34:47.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the
:34:48. > :34:49.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this
:34:50. > :34:55.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it
:34:56. > :34:59.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer
:35:00. > :35:06.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband
:35:07. > :35:09.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and
:35:10. > :35:15.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's
:35:16. > :35:19.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which
:35:20. > :35:24.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have
:35:25. > :35:28.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much
:35:29. > :35:33.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the
:35:34. > :35:37.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed
:35:38. > :35:42.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons
:35:43. > :35:46.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home
:35:47. > :35:51.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a
:35:52. > :35:55.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term
:35:56. > :36:02.return and give families more security. You have set a target,
:36:03. > :36:06.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million
:36:07. > :36:13.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we
:36:14. > :36:16.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this
:36:17. > :36:24.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...
:36:25. > :36:30.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking
:36:31. > :36:34.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with
:36:35. > :36:39.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is
:36:40. > :36:44.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes
:36:45. > :36:46.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total
:36:47. > :36:52.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the
:36:53. > :36:57.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1
:36:58. > :37:02.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three
:37:03. > :37:07.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1
:37:08. > :37:11.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't
:37:12. > :37:16.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this
:37:17. > :37:19.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions
:37:20. > :37:24.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.
:37:25. > :37:30.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,
:37:31. > :37:35.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am
:37:36. > :37:39.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It
:37:40. > :37:43.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes
:37:44. > :37:49.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the
:37:50. > :37:53.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there
:37:54. > :37:58.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove
:37:59. > :38:00.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should
:38:01. > :38:06.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We
:38:07. > :38:12.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million
:38:13. > :38:16.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken
:38:17. > :38:19.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green
:38:20. > :38:22.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,
:38:23. > :38:24.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.
:38:25. > :38:27.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:28. > :38:39.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...
:38:40. > :38:47.Coming up on the Sunday Politics here in the South West.
:38:48. > :38:49.The town and country view on whether Brexit
:38:50. > :38:55.And for the next 20 minutes I'm joined by Southwest
:38:56. > :38:57.Labour MEP Claire Moodie, and by the Plymouth Conservative
:38:58. > :39:05.Earlier this week hundreds of people took to the streets of Exeter,
:39:06. > :39:08.Plymouth, Falmouth and elsewhere in protest at President Trump's
:39:09. > :39:15.travel ban on people from seven Muslim majority countries.
:39:16. > :39:18.They want his invitation to make a state visit to Britain revoked.
:39:19. > :39:21.He has put out this 90 day ban against several people coming
:39:22. > :39:23.from Muslim majority countries, and we find that extremely
:39:24. > :39:35.nationalist and extremely racist, and altogether just disgusting.
:39:36. > :39:37.So Oliver, that is one of your constituents.
:39:38. > :39:40.Your view is that he should make the state visit and he should make
:39:41. > :39:44.I think you want him to review the Nato fleet
:39:45. > :39:55.Yes, but that is in Mayflower in 2020, when we are commemorating
:39:56. > :39:58.the Mayflower leaving to go and found the American colonies.
:39:59. > :40:00.And we have to remember that Donald Trump was elected
:40:01. > :40:02.and he is just implementing what he promised to do during
:40:03. > :40:06.We may not like that, but he is fulfilling something
:40:07. > :40:09.which often as not politicians can get accused of not fulfilling
:40:10. > :40:20.Do you think he should come, be invited to make the state visit?
:40:21. > :40:22.I think there is undue haste about this invitation
:40:23. > :40:31.It took at least two years for Barack Obama to be
:40:32. > :40:36.I think we have only had ten days so far, of Trump,
:40:37. > :40:38.and I wonder yet what will come between now and June
:40:39. > :40:46.What do you make of Oliver's invitation?
:40:47. > :40:49.I hope you're going to be pro-Mayflower 400?
:40:50. > :40:52.I'm very enthusiastic about celebrating the fourth
:40:53. > :40:56.But I am not sure whether Trump would necessarily, what would
:40:57. > :41:05.He's so prolific on Twitter, we wondered whether he might respond.
:41:06. > :41:18.The first significant step towards Britain leaving the EU
:41:19. > :41:24.was taken this week with MPs voting to trigger Article 50.
:41:25. > :41:27.Research released at the same time says Exeter and Plymouth export
:41:28. > :41:30.a higher percentage of their goods and services to the rest of Europe
:41:31. > :41:34.So are firms in those cities now looking forward to a bright new dawn
:41:35. > :41:38.Although it looks like something out of a futuristic movie,
:41:39. > :41:42.this is very much real life at a factory at the cutting
:41:43. > :41:45.edge of LED technology on the outskirts of Plymouth.
:41:46. > :41:47.But with Brexit uncertainty, there is a hint companies like this
:41:48. > :41:50.could be forced to relocate out of the UK.
:41:51. > :41:53.If this doesn't go well, there is not a sensible way for us
:41:54. > :42:07.Maybe retain this as a development site
:42:08. > :42:09.and scale production, which is always the issue
:42:10. > :42:12.Moving to scale production could move somewhere else.
:42:13. > :42:14.There has been millions of pounds of investment
:42:15. > :42:16.from Germany's Deutsche Bank here, and 70% of the company's
:42:17. > :42:20.Post Brexit there is a clear message about what is needed
:42:21. > :42:28.If we get into a tariff war with Europe, that's
:42:29. > :42:42.Reports this week that Exeter and Plymouth as the top two British
:42:43. > :42:45.cities for exporting goods and services to the EU.
:42:46. > :42:48.The Centre for Cities says around 70% of exports from these two macro
:42:49. > :42:50.places go to Europe, mainly because of marine transport
:42:51. > :42:58.A letter has been winging its way to the Prime Minister
:42:59. > :43:00.from Devon's business world, highlighting this and stressing
:43:01. > :43:02.the importance of access to a tariff free European market
:43:03. > :43:06.2% of our exports from this county actually go to China at the moment,
:43:07. > :43:09.as against potentially 60 to 70% into Europe.
:43:10. > :43:18.So even if we quadruple the amount of exports we were doing to China,
:43:19. > :43:21.if we actually saw any form of reduction on our trade to Europe,
:43:22. > :43:22.we probably still would be worse off.
:43:23. > :43:24.Theresa May set out her stall last month.
:43:25. > :43:26.We will pursue a bold and ambitious free-trade agreement
:43:27. > :43:36.And this week as the starting gun was fired on the road to Brexit,
:43:37. > :43:51.What I have detected is a new confidence in the country,
:43:52. > :44:01.a new positive approach, and new outward looking approach.
:44:02. > :44:04.Business I speak to, despite all the predicted doom
:44:05. > :44:05.and gloom, have said that they are positive
:44:06. > :44:09.We have some fantastic products here, all of
:44:10. > :44:12.Soft drinks, which are also not just sold here in Devon,
:44:13. > :44:18.We have beers sold in France as well as here,
:44:19. > :44:21.and we have crisps which are not just sold here but are doing
:44:22. > :44:24.The south-west's burgeoning food and drink industry,
:44:25. > :44:27.there are questions about how easy it will actually be to break
:44:28. > :44:29.into other markets, like the US and China.
:44:30. > :44:32.One of the beauties of being part of the European market is actually
:44:33. > :44:34.being the ease of access to that and therefore the
:44:35. > :44:38.If you start looking elsewhere, sure, there are opportunities
:44:39. > :44:40.elsewhere, don't get me wrong, Brexit will produce additional
:44:41. > :44:42.opportunities but it is the cost of those opportunities
:44:43. > :44:45.And in Cornwall this week, attempts to tackle the uncertainty around
:44:46. > :44:48.Brexit head-on with a second summit on the issue.
:44:49. > :44:50.The message here echoing those in the business world,
:44:51. > :45:02.be prepared for both the risks and opportunities.
:45:03. > :45:05.We are also joined by the Devon cheese producer Mary Quick,
:45:06. > :45:16.But you export I think most of your cheese to places outside the EU.
:45:17. > :45:20.We have heard a lot of people saying that for people in your position,
:45:21. > :45:23.the EU is a bit of a pain, its regulation being imposed
:45:24. > :45:26.on people who don't really export very much to the EU.
:45:27. > :45:28.First of all, the regulations for cheese tend to be
:45:29. > :45:41.And we really appreciate all of that.
:45:42. > :45:44.We export a bit to the EU, but about 40% is exported,
:45:45. > :45:49.We find that the EU deal with all the nontariff barriers
:45:50. > :45:51.we find and they deal with those very effectively.
:45:52. > :45:55.And where I'm really concerned that we, without that support,
:45:56. > :45:57.DEFRA does not have negotiators, as far as I am aware.
:45:58. > :46:00.They need to develop that depth of experience.
:46:01. > :46:03.Food and drink is 14% of UK GDP, and food and drink negotiations
:46:04. > :46:06.are going to be undertaken by DEFRA, which is a bit scary.
:46:07. > :46:15.I don't think they know the scale of the problem.
:46:16. > :46:17.So you think EU membership actually helps you trade
:46:18. > :46:30.There was an obscure example to do with cheese mite,
:46:31. > :46:36.where the FTA in America were actually stopping
:46:37. > :46:40.the importation of cheese, naturally rinded cheese which had
:46:41. > :46:43.a glorious little beast called cheese mite on it,
:46:44. > :46:57.And I'm really clear that DEFRA would just find it really difficult
:46:58. > :46:59.even to get an appointment to talk about it.
:47:00. > :47:03.Oliver, recently you said you now support the Prime Minister
:47:04. > :47:06.in a clean break from the EU, which you supported remain
:47:07. > :47:09.We have seen that Plymouth, according to this research,
:47:10. > :47:12.is the most reliant city in Britain on exports to the EU.
:47:13. > :47:14.You are in an interesting and arguably difficult position.
:47:15. > :47:17.I voted for us to remain in, and I am happy to have done that,
:47:18. > :47:19.but actually the country, and Plymouth in particular,
:47:20. > :47:22.ended up voting substantially to come out here in Plymouth,
:47:23. > :47:26.And I am listening to the public, as to what they made the decision
:47:27. > :47:29.about, but this is going to be a really interesting debate which
:47:30. > :47:34.She published earlier this week the 12 points in her white paper,
:47:35. > :47:37.and it's going to be about making sure that we get the best deal
:47:38. > :47:40.for Britain and that we end up making sure we can do that
:47:41. > :47:51.Everybody would be delighted if that best deal is achieved,
:47:52. > :47:53.and it replicates a lot of these things that business
:47:54. > :48:01.She has made it clear, though, that she could basically walk away
:48:02. > :48:09.That is the point presumably where your business constituents
:48:10. > :48:11.might start leaning on you and saying,
:48:12. > :48:15.I hope that my business constituents will come and talk to me anyway
:48:16. > :48:19.before this happens so I can make sure it is put to the Prime Minister
:48:20. > :48:24.But this is a business negotiation, it's a bit like playing poker,
:48:25. > :48:29.you have to make sure you do not sell your whole line too hard
:48:30. > :48:33.at the very beginning to make sure people are aware...
:48:34. > :48:37.That is a good point, though some people,
:48:38. > :48:39.we should acknowledge, think falling back on WTO
:48:40. > :48:43.rules would be great, but nonetheless even if you don't,
:48:44. > :48:47.isn't she right to play poker, as Oliver says?
:48:48. > :49:00.This is going to be an incredibly complex set of negotiations.
:49:01. > :49:03.My view is that it was said through Plessey, Mary made the very
:49:04. > :49:06.good point that where we have had difficulties in exports,
:49:07. > :49:14.with the BSE scandal, it was the EU institutions that
:49:15. > :49:17.ensured European countries did not unnecessarily stop our beef.
:49:18. > :49:19.But that has gone, we have to accept that is gone,
:49:20. > :49:22.they are not going to be doing these negotiations for us.
:49:23. > :49:24.But again the point being it was the EU that
:49:25. > :49:26.supported our farmers and managed to get the Americans
:49:27. > :49:33.There is not a settled view what Brexit looks like.
:49:34. > :49:35.There is a Theresa May view of what Brexit looks like,
:49:36. > :49:37.but the consequences of a Theresa May view
:49:38. > :49:43.of what Brexit looks like is jobs going in our region.
:49:44. > :49:45.It is also about environmental protections, employment rights,
:49:46. > :49:55.If you had been in the Commons, you would have joined
:49:56. > :49:56.MPs like Ben Bradshaw, voting against the
:49:57. > :50:03.I think it is very likely I would have done, yes.
:50:04. > :50:06.Oliver, in your case, would you like some of your
:50:07. > :50:08.colleagues to say yes, we are voting to get the process
:50:09. > :50:12.moving, but we will have red lines and we will not give the government
:50:13. > :50:14.a blank cheque for any kind of Brexit?
:50:15. > :50:17.I think there will be a number of views which are being portrayed
:50:18. > :50:20.by a number of people around the country in which they want
:50:21. > :50:23.to end up by making sure that we get the best deal as far as Britain
:50:24. > :50:25.is concerned, and that is absolutely vital.
:50:26. > :50:28.But that is not going to be helped in the way that Theresa May
:50:29. > :50:32.OK we're moving on to a closely related topic.
:50:33. > :50:35.You reap what you sow, as they say, and some farmers who voted to leave
:50:36. > :50:38.the EU are now concerned what might happen once the money they receive
:50:39. > :50:44.Johnny has been talking to farmers from across the generations
:50:45. > :51:00.about what kind of harvest Brexit might bring.
:51:01. > :51:01.A world of opportunity awaits British farming.
:51:02. > :51:07.This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
:51:08. > :51:09.The future sounds bright, but these young farmers
:51:10. > :51:11.say it is their future, and Andrea Leadsome
:51:12. > :51:21.Fresh from appearing on Gareth Malone's BBC TV series
:51:22. > :51:25.TV series The Choir, the young farmers
:51:26. > :51:32.if the government is actually in tune with farming in the South West.
:51:33. > :51:36.The government said it is going to give a lot
:51:37. > :51:38.of continued support to farmers, etc, but they have not
:51:39. > :51:43.In this area, we have relied a lot on government grants that have
:51:44. > :51:45.come through the EU, and I don't see that the government
:51:46. > :51:48.alone will follow it through and give it to us.
:51:49. > :51:57.Personally I think the future is as bright as it has ever been,
:51:58. > :51:59.in this country alone there is an extraordinary amount
:52:00. > :52:01.of youngsters future farmers, who have got the drive and passion
:52:02. > :52:05.to keep such a thing going, and they are not just going to walk
:52:06. > :52:07.away from it goes the farming industry has had
:52:08. > :52:16.back as I can remember, and it has not killed us yet
:52:17. > :52:21.and I don't think it will kill us any time soon.
:52:22. > :52:25.South Hams sheep farmer Andrew voted out, but what is that what replaces
:52:26. > :52:28.I fear for the future of the small farmer.
:52:29. > :52:43.They have enough odds stacked against them
:52:44. > :52:46.They have enough odds stacked against them as it is without having
:52:47. > :52:48.to deal with an unfair subsidy system which supports
:52:49. > :52:55.It is just income support in reverse gear.
:52:56. > :52:57.I have got this chart courtesy of Greenpeace,
:52:58. > :53:00.when you look at it you can see how the farm subsidies are
:53:01. > :53:05.And you can see far too much is ending up in the hands of these
:53:06. > :53:08.In contrast, the smaller farmers just get the leftover crumbs
:53:09. > :53:13.Unless the Conservative Party can be prised off farm
:53:14. > :53:22.subsidy purse strings, nothing can change.
:53:23. > :53:24.We must get a more fair impartial committee to decide
:53:25. > :53:32.At 90, Pippa Woods has seen a lot of change in farming.
:53:33. > :53:35.She has run her Devon farm since 1954.
:53:36. > :53:38.Voting to remain in the EU, she now fears for the future
:53:39. > :53:43.I can't imagine how it's going to work out,
:53:44. > :53:55.Sometimes I feel I haven't got to worry about what's
:53:56. > :54:00.Mary, do you accept this view is from other farmers
:54:01. > :54:03.in the south-west that the present system seems to award dukes and rich
:54:04. > :54:04.landowners and underfund small farmers in places
:54:05. > :54:07.like the south-west, who struggle to make a living?
:54:08. > :54:16.Certainly it's true that the larger the farm,
:54:17. > :54:19.because it is on an acreage basis, the larger you are as a farmer,
:54:20. > :54:22.the more you get the subsidy because it is on that basis.
:54:23. > :54:24.And it is also true that, Michael Winter has just
:54:25. > :54:31.done a wonderful report, Professor of the University
:54:32. > :54:33.of Exeter for the Princes Trust, which shows exactly those numbers,
:54:34. > :54:36.but also shows how small farms of all sizes can be
:54:37. > :54:47.And that depends on how innovative, how productive, efficient.
:54:48. > :54:50.You may be modestly saying do as I have done?
:54:51. > :54:54.Not at all because I am well aware of what I don't do correctly,
:54:55. > :54:59.but there are some really remarkable farmers, small and large, around
:55:00. > :55:02.around the region, around Devon and Cornwall, many of whom do things
:55:03. > :55:05.like diversification, wonderful food, all of that stuff.
:55:06. > :55:19.And we probably need to do more of that, and it's also true that
:55:20. > :55:22.part of farming will be on those commodities, where it will be
:55:23. > :55:24.just about efficiencies, and for those farms the subsidies
:55:25. > :55:28.OK, this is obviously got to be one of the biggest
:55:29. > :55:35.What should the government be putting in place to replace this?
:55:36. > :55:38.Again, farming is a good example of where all different moving pieces
:55:39. > :55:41.in our relationship with the EU intersect because you've got
:55:42. > :55:43.the subsidy relationship, the whole common agriculture policy
:55:44. > :55:46.which farmers have geared up and around, and now they know
:55:47. > :55:53.that there is two years of this programme left, they don't
:55:54. > :55:59.know how much longer it would last after that.
:56:00. > :56:02.Some would say it is a golden opportunity to reform it and change
:56:03. > :56:13.Well, it might be, but what have farmers got to gear to?
:56:14. > :56:16.You have to plan in farming, there is no indication
:56:17. > :56:34.I saw this idea that there may be some kind of 20
:56:35. > :56:38.UK-based government policies don't survive ministers,
:56:39. > :56:42.The idea that there would be a stable and predictable
:56:43. > :56:44.as the seven-year agricultural plan that comes with the EU,
:56:45. > :56:46.and then you've got the export markets and workforce
:56:47. > :56:49.There are all of these different things.
:56:50. > :57:01.Oliver, you would not accept a vote of confidence from a Labour MEP,
:57:02. > :57:03.but this is going to be a huge challenge.
:57:04. > :57:06.It's going to be a massive challenge, and the government have
:57:07. > :57:08.said they are going to make sure that they look after
:57:09. > :57:11.the subsidies up until 2020, then we will see what's happening.
:57:12. > :57:21.We've got to try and look after the smaller farmer
:57:22. > :57:28.But what's also got to happen is we've got to try and predict
:57:29. > :57:31.as to what the food they are producing and to where
:57:32. > :57:34.there is going to be a surplus of it, we need to cut back,
:57:35. > :57:38.I would argue, on the subsidy as far as those are concerned, so we can
:57:39. > :57:41.make sure that we are producing food which is going to reflect
:57:42. > :57:44.On the general picture, there are lots of strands to this.
:57:45. > :57:48.But if, for the sake of argument, they lose access to migrant workers,
:57:49. > :57:51.they lose access to the single market and subsidies, it is
:57:52. > :57:55.The issue certainly is that if we see that immigration
:57:56. > :57:58.is the big issue which came out of it, I think many people feel
:57:59. > :58:01.that, and I get that feeling here in Plymouth.
:58:02. > :58:04.If that is the issue then it makes it very difficult for us to remain
:58:05. > :58:17.That's not going to happen, we've been told.
:58:18. > :58:20.And the second issue is if we want to end up by having
:58:21. > :58:24.trade deals with other countries, we're going to have to end up making
:58:25. > :58:26.sure that we do that, I'm afraid outside the European
:58:27. > :58:29.customs union, and that's going to be a very big issue.
:58:30. > :58:32.That's a huge issue in terms of if we do a trade deal
:58:33. > :58:34.with New Zealand, what's happened to our lambs?
:58:35. > :58:40.It is time for our political round-up of the week
:58:41. > :58:42.Anger at potential health service cuts in North Devon
:58:43. > :58:47.Will my right honourable friend assure me she will listen
:58:48. > :58:50.carefully to those concerns, because I want to be able
:58:51. > :58:55.to say to North Devon that we are the party of the NHS.
:58:56. > :58:58.Controversy over Cornwall's blue sky plan to force people to move out
:58:59. > :59:06.The whole point of the town centre is it's for the people,
:59:07. > :59:16.so I think they are putting vehicles before people.
:59:17. > :59:19.The Isles of Scilly Council is warned to get on top of its finances
:59:20. > :59:27.and told to borrow ?3 million to pay staff and suppliers.
:59:28. > :59:29.Meanwhile Dorset councils are voting themselves out of existence,
:59:30. > :59:32.by creating two new unitary authorities in the county.
:59:33. > :59:34.And the rules banning dogs from Cornish beaches
:59:35. > :59:38.We've got to strike a happy medium somewhere, and I think what has been
:59:39. > :59:43.suggested today is probably the right way forward.
:59:44. > :59:52.Oliver, this issue with air pollution seems interesting
:59:53. > :59:54.because the Cornish towns are many of the ones that
:59:55. > :59:56.have been identified, they seem to be saying that you get
:59:57. > :59:59.a problem with the pollution being tunnelled through the main
:00:00. > :00:07.This is the historic heart of the town, you move people out
:00:08. > :00:10.Historically, that was an issue which has actually
:00:11. > :00:15.It is one of the worst places for pollution as well.
:00:16. > :00:17.And I am very interested to what the government
:00:18. > :00:20.is going to do about all this because we had a question session
:00:21. > :00:23.in the House of Commons in the last three or four months,
:00:24. > :00:25.and I think that is something which we've got to do.
:00:26. > :00:31.I went and spent a bit of time with my local GPs and I was very
:00:32. > :00:33.taken by the number of people living in Devonport and areas
:00:34. > :00:36.like that who have really big problems with their lungs,
:00:37. > :00:39.and this is all about how we can make sure that we have less
:00:40. > :00:42.pollution in our country, which is the reason why I've always
:00:43. > :00:44.been very supportive of the issues to do with climate change.
:00:45. > :00:47.This is something you've been looking at in the European
:00:48. > :00:52.A lot of our air quality legislation is cross European
:00:53. > :00:54.because our air crosses Europe, it doesn't stop at the French
:00:55. > :01:03.Yes, it is something that is a deep concern.
:01:04. > :01:06.Something like 50,000 people a year may suffer huge health impacts
:01:07. > :01:12.It is a national government responsibility.
:01:13. > :01:13.Local governments cannot solve air pollution,
:01:14. > :01:17.national government has to put in place the support.
:01:18. > :01:20.That's the reason why I set up for Plymouth City Council to go
:01:21. > :01:31.That is it once again for Sunday Politics in the south-west.
:01:32. > :01:34.programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of
:01:35. > :01:40.you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.
:01:41. > :01:43.Will the Government's plan to boost house-building
:01:44. > :01:46.Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for
:01:47. > :01:51.And what is President Trump going to do next?
:01:52. > :02:09.You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do
:02:10. > :02:14.you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical
:02:15. > :02:18.stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it
:02:19. > :02:23.will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing
:02:24. > :02:27.supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan
:02:28. > :02:30.of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by
:02:31. > :02:35.forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where
:02:36. > :02:38.they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have
:02:39. > :02:42.to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to
:02:43. > :02:46.beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market
:02:47. > :02:52.for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most
:02:53. > :02:57.defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited
:02:58. > :03:04.as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate
:03:05. > :03:08.Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime
:03:09. > :03:13.ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In
:03:14. > :03:17.2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.
:03:18. > :03:22.Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never
:03:23. > :03:26.happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,
:03:27. > :03:29.local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their
:03:30. > :03:33.seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally
:03:34. > :03:37.that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to
:03:38. > :03:41.overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may
:03:42. > :03:46.find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is
:03:47. > :03:50.the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and
:03:51. > :03:58.force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for
:03:59. > :04:05.Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory
:04:06. > :04:09.countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they
:04:10. > :04:12.have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to
:04:13. > :04:17.fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to
:04:18. > :04:21.built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the
:04:22. > :04:24.green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to
:04:25. > :04:30.do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato
:04:31. > :04:36.farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green
:04:37. > :04:41.belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I
:04:42. > :04:45.agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.
:04:46. > :04:49.In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an
:04:50. > :04:53.area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has
:04:54. > :04:57.always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why
:04:58. > :05:00.pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.
:05:01. > :05:08.They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of
:05:09. > :05:13.older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on
:05:14. > :05:18.anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There
:05:19. > :05:22.is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the
:05:23. > :05:26.system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in
:05:27. > :05:30.the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of
:05:31. > :05:34.the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast
:05:35. > :05:37.track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,
:05:38. > :05:45.it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases
:05:46. > :05:50.in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the
:05:51. > :05:54.three years to give the young families a certain stability over
:05:55. > :05:58.that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,
:05:59. > :06:03.if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets
:06:04. > :06:07.it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of
:06:08. > :06:12.their policy now. This is probably item number four of
:06:13. > :06:15.Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the
:06:16. > :06:20.last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in
:06:21. > :06:26.mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to
:06:27. > :06:30.be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have
:06:31. > :06:31.grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their
:06:32. > :06:38.grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a
:06:39. > :06:41.bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe
:06:42. > :06:47.that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million
:06:48. > :06:49.target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has
:06:50. > :06:55.happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only
:06:56. > :06:57.one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the
:06:58. > :07:04.willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said
:07:05. > :07:08.that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.
:07:09. > :07:15.How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal
:07:16. > :07:21.over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to
:07:22. > :07:26.vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find
:07:27. > :07:30.quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken
:07:31. > :07:35.seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave
:07:36. > :07:39.last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining
:07:40. > :07:41.Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned
:07:42. > :07:47.about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to
:07:48. > :07:51.vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice
:07:52. > :07:55.and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking
:07:56. > :08:00.amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of
:08:01. > :08:04.veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the
:08:05. > :08:08.vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the
:08:09. > :08:14.case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just
:08:15. > :08:17.go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed
:08:18. > :08:22.views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My
:08:23. > :08:28.understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal
:08:29. > :08:33.that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if
:08:34. > :08:38.Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean
:08:39. > :08:43.go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think
:08:44. > :08:48.again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of
:08:49. > :08:54.the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation
:08:55. > :08:57.begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock
:08:58. > :09:00.and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is
:09:01. > :09:05.particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for
:09:06. > :09:09.Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen
:09:10. > :09:12.next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the
:09:13. > :09:17.end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out
:09:18. > :09:20.on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the
:09:21. > :09:24.deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing
:09:25. > :09:31.out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a
:09:32. > :09:35.great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments
:09:36. > :09:38.on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal
:09:39. > :09:42.vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must
:09:43. > :09:47.remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if
:09:48. > :09:51.it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,
:09:52. > :09:56.one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting
:09:57. > :10:00.against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new
:10:01. > :10:06.parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge
:10:07. > :10:13.majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February
:10:14. > :10:21.recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for
:10:22. > :10:26.self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said
:10:27. > :10:30.this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you
:10:31. > :10:35.have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to
:10:36. > :10:39.the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for
:10:40. > :10:47.their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did
:10:48. > :10:50.you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth
:10:51. > :10:53.as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,
:10:54. > :10:57.saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,
:10:58. > :11:01.what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If
:11:02. > :11:06.you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they
:11:07. > :11:12.went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among
:11:13. > :11:15.American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was
:11:16. > :11:18.America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.
:11:19. > :11:23.As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.
:11:24. > :11:26.This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series
:11:27. > :11:29.on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure
:11:30. > :11:35.anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been
:11:36. > :11:40.talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is
:11:41. > :11:43.happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We
:11:44. > :11:47.are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of
:11:48. > :11:51.the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge
:11:52. > :11:58.who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge
:11:59. > :12:00.Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all
:12:01. > :12:05.these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be
:12:06. > :12:10.having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to
:12:11. > :12:14.cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless
:12:15. > :12:19.chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do
:12:20. > :12:23.that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as
:12:24. > :12:28.we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over
:12:29. > :12:34.there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election
:12:35. > :12:38.campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a
:12:39. > :12:41.daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be
:12:42. > :12:44.pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.
:12:45. > :12:49.Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the
:12:50. > :12:54.populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you
:12:55. > :12:57.are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the
:12:58. > :12:59.American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want
:13:00. > :13:05.their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating
:13:06. > :13:11.as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I
:13:12. > :13:13.have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976
:13:14. > :13:17.and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on
:13:18. > :13:20.America supporting the EU. That is a different world.
:13:21. > :13:23.Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with
:13:24. > :13:25.the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here
:13:26. > :14:04.Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:05. > :14:17.TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS
:14:18. > :14:31.so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?