:00:37. > :00:42.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:44.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:45. > :00:47.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:48. > :00:50.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:51. > :00:56.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:57. > :00:58.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:59. > :01:01.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:02. > :01:05.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:06. > :01:11.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:12. > :01:13.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:14. > :01:18.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:19. > :01:21.In the South West, the pensioners hoping this week's budget
:01:22. > :01:37.And the Royal Navy's battle to recruit enough sailors.
:01:38. > :01:41.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:42. > :01:43.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:44. > :01:46.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:47. > :01:49.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:50. > :01:52.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:53. > :01:55.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:56. > :02:00.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:01. > :02:06.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:07. > :02:08.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:09. > :02:11.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:12. > :02:15.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:16. > :02:17.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:18. > :02:22.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:23. > :02:24.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:25. > :02:36.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:37. > :02:43.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:44. > :02:47.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:48. > :02:49.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:50. > :03:01.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:02. > :03:07.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:08. > :03:11.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:12. > :03:14.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:15. > :03:20.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:21. > :03:24.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:25. > :03:30.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:31. > :03:34.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:35. > :03:39.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:40. > :03:44.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:45. > :03:50.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:51. > :03:57.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:58. > :04:01.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:02. > :04:04.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:05. > :04:11.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:12. > :04:15.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:16. > :04:20.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:21. > :04:23.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:24. > :04:29.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:30. > :04:33.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:34. > :04:37.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:38. > :04:44.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:45. > :04:48.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:49. > :04:53.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:54. > :04:57.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:58. > :05:03.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:04. > :05:07.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:08. > :05:11.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:12. > :05:16.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:17. > :05:19.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:20. > :05:24.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:25. > :05:29.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:30. > :05:36.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:37. > :05:42.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:43. > :05:48.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:49. > :05:52.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:53. > :05:57.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:58. > :06:03.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:04. > :06:10.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:11. > :06:14.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:15. > :06:17.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:18. > :06:23.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:24. > :06:29.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:30. > :06:34.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:35. > :06:39.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:40. > :06:43.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:44. > :06:50.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:51. > :06:56.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:57. > :07:02.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:03. > :07:07.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:08. > :07:10.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:11. > :07:14.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:15. > :07:18.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:19. > :07:23.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:24. > :07:28.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:29. > :07:32.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:33. > :07:34.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:35. > :07:38.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:39. > :07:41.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:42. > :07:43.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:44. > :07:46.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:47. > :07:49.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:50. > :07:55.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:56. > :07:58.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:59. > :08:03.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:04. > :08:06.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:07. > :08:10.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:11. > :08:14.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:15. > :08:16."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:17. > :08:19.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:20. > :08:21.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:22. > :08:25.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:26. > :08:36.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:37. > :08:42.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:43. > :08:45.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:46. > :08:46.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:47. > :08:49.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:50. > :08:53.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:54. > :08:59.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:09:00. > :09:02.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:03. > :09:05.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:06. > :09:13.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:14. > :09:16.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:17. > :09:21.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:22. > :09:25.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:26. > :09:33.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:34. > :09:39.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:40. > :09:45.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:46. > :09:49.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:50. > :09:53.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:54. > :09:58.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:59. > :10:03.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:04. > :10:07.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:08. > :10:12.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:13. > :10:20.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:21. > :10:26.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:27. > :10:30.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:31. > :10:36.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:37. > :10:44.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:45. > :10:48.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:49. > :10:52.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:53. > :10:57.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:58. > :11:01.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:02. > :11:07.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:08. > :11:11.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:12. > :11:17.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:18. > :11:22.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:23. > :11:25.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:26. > :11:30.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:31. > :11:33.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:34. > :11:40.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:41. > :11:47.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:48. > :11:52.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:53. > :11:57.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:58. > :12:04.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:05. > :12:08.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:09. > :12:13.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:14. > :12:17.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:18. > :12:23.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:24. > :12:27.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:28. > :12:32.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:33. > :12:36.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:37. > :12:42.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:43. > :12:46.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:47. > :12:51.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:52. > :12:56.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:57. > :13:02.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:03. > :13:10.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:11. > :13:15.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:16. > :13:19.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:20. > :13:24.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:25. > :13:27.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:28. > :13:35.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:36. > :13:40.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:41. > :13:46.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:47. > :13:48.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:49. > :13:55.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:56. > :14:03.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:04. > :14:06.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:07. > :14:10.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:11. > :14:15.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:16. > :14:18.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:19. > :14:24.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:25. > :14:28.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:29. > :14:34.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:35. > :14:39.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:40. > :14:42.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:43. > :14:49.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:50. > :14:53.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:54. > :14:59.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:15:00. > :15:07.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:08. > :15:09.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:10. > :15:17.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:18. > :15:21.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:22. > :15:26.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:27. > :15:31.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:32. > :15:37.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:38. > :15:41.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:42. > :15:44.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:45. > :15:50.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:51. > :15:57.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:58. > :16:02.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:03. > :16:06.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:07. > :16:11.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:12. > :16:18.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:19. > :16:25.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:26. > :16:29.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:30. > :16:32.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:33. > :16:37.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:38. > :16:43.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:44. > :16:47.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:48. > :16:52.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:53. > :16:59.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:17:00. > :17:04.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:05. > :17:13.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:14. > :17:18.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:19. > :17:25.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:26. > :17:29.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:30. > :17:34.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:35. > :17:37.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:38. > :17:39.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:40. > :17:44.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:45. > :17:49.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:50. > :17:55.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:56. > :18:09.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:10. > :18:13.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:14. > :18:19.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:20. > :18:24.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:25. > :18:29.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:30. > :18:35.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:36. > :18:41.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:42. > :18:48.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:49. > :18:53.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:54. > :18:56.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:57. > :19:05.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:06. > :19:08.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:09. > :19:11.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:12. > :19:13.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:14. > :19:16.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:17. > :19:21.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:22. > :19:27.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:28. > :19:30.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:31. > :19:31.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:32. > :19:33.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:34. > :19:43.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:44. > :19:50.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:51. > :20:00.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:01. > :20:02.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:03. > :20:06.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:07. > :20:09.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:10. > :20:11.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:12. > :20:13.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:14. > :20:18.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:19. > :20:20.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:21. > :20:24.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:25. > :20:27.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:28. > :20:31.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:32. > :20:34.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:35. > :20:37.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:38. > :20:42.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:43. > :20:46.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:47. > :20:49.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:50. > :20:51.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:52. > :20:54.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:55. > :21:02.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:03. > :21:06.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:07. > :21:09.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:10. > :21:15.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:16. > :21:23.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:24. > :21:27.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:28. > :21:31.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:32. > :21:34.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:35. > :21:37.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:38. > :21:39.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:40. > :21:44.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:45. > :21:47.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:48. > :21:49.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:50. > :21:54.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:55. > :21:59.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:22:00. > :22:04.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:05. > :22:06.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:07. > :22:09.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:10. > :22:12.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:13. > :22:21.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:22. > :22:24.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:25. > :22:26.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:27. > :22:33.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:34. > :22:42.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:43. > :22:46.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:47. > :22:48.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:49. > :22:51.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:52. > :22:54.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:55. > :23:02.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:03. > :23:09.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:10. > :23:11.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:12. > :23:14.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:15. > :23:20.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:21. > :23:22.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:23. > :23:25.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:26. > :23:28.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:29. > :23:34.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:35. > :23:41.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:42. > :23:44.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:45. > :23:59.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:24:00. > :24:05.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:06. > :24:09.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:10. > :24:13.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:14. > :24:17.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:18. > :24:22.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:23. > :24:27.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:28. > :24:29.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:30. > :24:36.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:37. > :24:42.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:43. > :24:47.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:48. > :24:50.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:51. > :24:54.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:55. > :24:59.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:25:00. > :25:04.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:05. > :25:08.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:09. > :25:13.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:14. > :25:17.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:18. > :25:21.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:22. > :25:24.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:25. > :25:30.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:31. > :25:33.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:34. > :25:38.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:39. > :25:44.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:45. > :25:49.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:50. > :25:55.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:56. > :25:59.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:26:00. > :26:02.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:03. > :26:23.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:24. > :26:29.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:30. > :26:34.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:35. > :26:37.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:38. > :26:43.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:44. > :26:47.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:48. > :26:51.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:52. > :27:00.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:01. > :27:09.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:10. > :27:12.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:13. > :27:18.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:19. > :27:23.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:24. > :27:28.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:29. > :27:31.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:32. > :27:35.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:36. > :27:43.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:44. > :27:48.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:49. > :27:55.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:56. > :28:03.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:04. > :28:07.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:08. > :28:12.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:13. > :28:19.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:20. > :28:24.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:25. > :28:28.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:29. > :28:31.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:32. > :28:38.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:39. > :28:46.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:47. > :28:51.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:52. > :28:57.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:58. > :29:04.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:05. > :29:09.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:10. > :29:18.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:19. > :29:22.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:23. > :29:29.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:30. > :29:35.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:36. > :29:40.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:41. > :29:44.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:45. > :29:48.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:49. > :29:54.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:55. > :29:58.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:59. > :30:01.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:02. > :30:09.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:10. > :30:11.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:12. > :30:25.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:26. > :30:28.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:29. > :30:31.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:32. > :30:37.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:38. > :30:43.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:44. > :30:50.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:51. > :30:54.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:55. > :31:00.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:01. > :31:06.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:07. > :31:14.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:15. > :31:17.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:18. > :31:22.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:23. > :31:26.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:27. > :31:31.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:32. > :31:36.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:37. > :31:43.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:44. > :31:47.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:48. > :31:51.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:52. > :31:56.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:57. > :31:59.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:32:00. > :32:04.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:05. > :32:08.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:09. > :32:10.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:11. > :32:14.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:15. > :32:18.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:19. > :32:21.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:22. > :32:23.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:24. > :32:29.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:30. > :32:32.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:33. > :32:37.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:38. > :32:41.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:42. > :32:46.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:47. > :32:49.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:50. > :32:55.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:56. > :32:58.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:59. > :33:05.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:06. > :33:09.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:10. > :33:15.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:16. > :33:18.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:19. > :33:21.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:22. > :33:29.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:30. > :33:33.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:34. > :33:40.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:41. > :33:44.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:45. > :33:50.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:51. > :33:56.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:57. > :34:00.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:01. > :34:05.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:06. > :34:08.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:09. > :34:14.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:15. > :34:19.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:20. > :34:23.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:24. > :34:27.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:28. > :34:35.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:36. > :34:38.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:39. > :34:45.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:46. > :34:49.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:50. > :34:54.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:55. > :34:59.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:35:00. > :35:03.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:04. > :35:09.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:10. > :35:14.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:15. > :35:17.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:18. > :35:21.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:22. > :35:26.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:27. > :35:30.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:31. > :35:34.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:35. > :35:40.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:41. > :35:44.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:45. > :35:48.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:49. > :35:53.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:54. > :35:57.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:58. > :36:02.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:03. > :36:06.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:07. > :36:10.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:11. > :36:15.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:16. > :36:21.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:22. > :36:28.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:29. > :36:34.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:35. > :36:39.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:40. > :36:44.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:45. > :36:49.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:50. > :36:53.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:54. > :36:58.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:59. > :37:01.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:02. > :37:07.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:08. > :37:12.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:13. > :37:18.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:19. > :37:23.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:24. > :37:29.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:30. > :37:32.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:33. > :37:38.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:39. > :37:43.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:44. > :37:48.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:49. > :37:52.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:53. > :37:56.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:57. > :38:02.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:03. > :38:07.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:08. > :38:11.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:12. > :38:19.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:20. > :38:26.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:27. > :38:31.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:32. > :38:37.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:38. > :38:38.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:39. > :38:40.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:41. > :38:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:43. > :38:45.in Scotland who leave us now I'm Lucy Fisher.
:38:46. > :38:57.minutes, the Week Ahead. Coming up on the Sunday Politics
:38:58. > :39:00.here in the South West. The pensioners hoping the Chancellor
:39:01. > :39:02.will come up with some answers on social care
:39:03. > :39:05.in this week's budget. More money should be made available
:39:06. > :39:08.by central government. Quite frankly I think a lot
:39:09. > :39:12.of people will be prepared to pay another percentage on income tax
:39:13. > :39:16.to fund it. And for the next 20 minutes I'm
:39:17. > :39:19.joined by the Conservative MP for Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris
:39:20. > :39:23.and the Liberal Democrat peer So the House of Lords have told
:39:24. > :39:31.the government to think again about whether EU citizens living
:39:32. > :39:35.in the UK should have their right to A Lords amendment guaranteeing
:39:36. > :39:40.their right goes back Anne Marie, is this a chance to give
:39:41. > :39:45.some very worried people No, I don't think it is,
:39:46. > :39:50.because I think you have to recognise that if you are a national
:39:51. > :39:53.of one country living in another country, you need to look
:39:54. > :39:56.at how you'll be treated So for the UK to unilaterally say
:39:57. > :40:04.people living in the UK from an EU nationality will have their rights
:40:05. > :40:09.protected because how is that going to impact
:40:10. > :40:13.their rights as EU citizens? You need both parties to agree
:40:14. > :40:17.the rights of both the UK citizens living in Europe and of the EU
:40:18. > :40:22.citizens living here. Judith, what do you make
:40:23. > :40:25.of that argument? It's sort of the way
:40:26. > :40:29.the House of Lords works. Whichever amendment on this
:40:30. > :40:34.particular topic and there were quite a few on this topic
:40:35. > :40:37.in general, gets to the top of the list, that is
:40:38. > :40:40.the one you vote on. That one just happened
:40:41. > :40:42.not to exclude... not to include the issue of UK
:40:43. > :40:46.citizens living in the EU. So what we're really doing
:40:47. > :40:50.is saying to the government, If you were there and listening
:40:51. > :40:55.to the debate, the debate Is it right that the Lords stand
:40:56. > :41:01.in the way of a referendum result and the will of the House of
:41:02. > :41:03.Commons? Our role is to
:41:04. > :41:07.scrutinise legislation. We voted on this and
:41:08. > :41:11.the vote was overwhelming. It then goes down to the Commons
:41:12. > :41:14.and the Commons will look at it and say "Don't like this" or "Yeah,
:41:15. > :41:17.that's all right." They will then come back to us
:41:18. > :41:23.and say either "We like it" And we will say, "All right
:41:24. > :41:29.then" or "Look at it But eventually it's the elected
:41:30. > :41:36.House that gets the final say. So the Prime Minister
:41:37. > :41:39.will get her Bill. When the Chancellor delivers his
:41:40. > :41:42.first spring budget this week, he is under pressure to stump up
:41:43. > :41:45.some more cash Amid signs that stronger
:41:46. > :41:49.than expected tax receipts could give him some room
:41:50. > :41:55.for manoeuvre, in the South West the message is that struggling high
:41:56. > :41:58.streets and care for the elderly and vulnerable should be top
:41:59. > :42:00.of Mr Hammond's list. Hoping for a good hand
:42:01. > :42:05.at Truro Bowls Club's Hopes here too the Chancellor's hand
:42:06. > :42:10.in the spring budget will reveal more cash for the NHS
:42:11. > :42:13.and social care. Margaret is waiting
:42:14. > :42:16.for a hip op with a story I cannot go in there
:42:17. > :42:23.until they clear all the beds so there are people like myself
:42:24. > :42:27.waiting for an operation in a lot Given the go-ahead by ministers,
:42:28. > :42:35.councillors across the South West have put up to 3% extra on council
:42:36. > :42:39.tax bills in recent weeks, They have clubbed together to send
:42:40. > :42:46.a message to Whitehall and it's a message being echoed both
:42:47. > :42:49.here and at Westminster too. More money should be made available
:42:50. > :42:53.by central government. Quite frankly I think a lot
:42:54. > :42:56.of people would be prepared to pay another percentage on income tax
:42:57. > :42:59.to fund it. I think it should be coming
:43:00. > :43:03.centrally, as with the NHS and probably social care and the NHS
:43:04. > :43:07.should be fully integrated. I would ask our Chancellor
:43:08. > :43:11.in his forthcoming budget to address this by urgently giving a lifeline
:43:12. > :43:17.to social care. But the Chancellor is still
:43:18. > :43:20.committed to a diet of austerity. Government departments have been
:43:21. > :43:24.told to find further spending cuts of up to 6% and this week a warning
:43:25. > :43:27.that the economic outlook is uncertain amid reports
:43:28. > :43:31.the squeeze is being felt Your Cornish pasty might be getting
:43:32. > :43:37.more expensive as a weak pound is causing imports of food
:43:38. > :43:40.ingredients and other things like fuel to be more expensive
:43:41. > :43:43.and that cost is beginning to be The bills go up but our
:43:44. > :43:54.wages don't go up. They go up by 3%, 4%,
:43:55. > :43:57.5% but our wages go up I don't know how some
:43:58. > :44:06.of the places actually stay open. The struggling high street behind
:44:07. > :44:09.another issue which has prompted a chorus of disapproval from MPs
:44:10. > :44:13.of all stripes and hopes concessions I'm sorry to hear about all
:44:14. > :44:21.the difficulty with business rates. Gay has owned this shop
:44:22. > :44:26.in Looe for 38 years. She's one of thousands facing higher
:44:27. > :44:30.bills after a nationwide Because the expenses
:44:31. > :44:41.outweigh the income, Signs there might be extra help
:44:42. > :44:47.for the hardest hit have been We are a peninsula
:44:48. > :44:52.of small businesses. If they were a big company
:44:53. > :44:55.and we add them all together, there would be an outcry nationally
:44:56. > :44:58.about how they are being treated so just because they are separate,
:44:59. > :45:02.we need to look at them as a unit and say they are doing good
:45:03. > :45:06.things for our economy. Ministers have said overall
:45:07. > :45:08.the business rate changes make the system fairer and on social care
:45:09. > :45:12.they insist they have already given We'll find out on Wednesday
:45:13. > :45:17.whether there is a trump card up the Chancellor's sleeve as talk
:45:18. > :45:20.of a controversial death tax to help plug the gaps
:45:21. > :45:24.has emerged once again. Anne Marie, people in the piece very
:45:25. > :45:30.worried about social I know that's something you've
:45:31. > :45:35.spoken out about in the Commons. What should Philip Hammond do
:45:36. > :45:39.to try and sort this out? In the short term, what we need
:45:40. > :45:42.is the Better Care fund increased and the spending,
:45:43. > :45:47.which is targeted for further down That's right, but if you
:45:48. > :45:57.from the start move it from where it was to be spent
:45:58. > :46:00.to being spent now, you're right And secondly, if we put
:46:01. > :46:05.in that transition funding for the sustainable transformation
:46:06. > :46:08.plans, that will revolutionise it. And as for your question,
:46:09. > :46:12.where is that money coming from... Small businesses don't
:46:13. > :46:15.like their taxes going up. You can't set one against the other
:46:16. > :46:21.because what people have rightly said is that they are prepared
:46:22. > :46:25.to contribute money to ensure that we have the NHS
:46:26. > :46:28.and the social care we need. Business rates started out as a tax
:46:29. > :46:32.on the properties of businesses and the whole thing is unfair,
:46:33. > :46:36.fundamentally, so I'm not surprised the business community
:46:37. > :46:39.is saying this is wrong. You came into Parliament for small
:46:40. > :46:42.businesses, one of the things. So this is something you disagree
:46:43. > :46:47.with completely, is it? I think the government has had two
:46:48. > :46:49.bites at the cherry, The small businesses,
:46:50. > :46:53.particularly the pubs, are particularly badly served
:46:54. > :46:56.because the way the calculation People voted people
:46:57. > :47:01.like you in to sort this out. At the moment, the government
:47:02. > :47:05.has failed them. I haven't because I'm
:47:06. > :47:08.fighting their corner. Theresa has also said on social care
:47:09. > :47:15.she will look at it in the autumn. While I don't agree with what's
:47:16. > :47:19.happening now, I do believe that the Prime Minister
:47:20. > :47:21.and Mr Hammond do have in mind to look at the business rates
:47:22. > :47:25.and social care in the autumn. Judith, is that something you think
:47:26. > :47:28.Philip Hammond will look at? What do the Lib Dems think
:47:29. > :47:30.the Chancellor should do? He really has no choice
:47:31. > :47:33.but to look at it and to look I think the autumn is
:47:34. > :47:38.leaving it a bit late. I would like to see something coming
:47:39. > :47:41.up with this particular What would be very sensible would be
:47:42. > :47:46.to put it into the Better Care fund, which was a Lib Dem institution
:47:47. > :47:49.from Norman Lamb, and actually say, health and care, sort
:47:50. > :47:51.it all out together, because it is the interface
:47:52. > :47:53.between the two that causes Because people that end up
:47:54. > :47:58.in hospital have nowhere to go. It's a combined effort
:47:59. > :48:02.that needs some work. One of the gentleman said
:48:03. > :48:05.he would be prepared to pay a little bit more and I think we need
:48:06. > :48:08.to have a serious conversation It's getting increasingly
:48:09. > :48:13.more and more expensive. There has been talk in the papers
:48:14. > :48:18.of having a death tax to pay In the past I know the Chancellor
:48:19. > :48:23.before he was Chancellor But I think people might be prepared
:48:24. > :48:31.to pay some sort of hypothecated taxation towards health
:48:32. > :48:33.and social care. It's something people have turned
:48:34. > :48:36.against quite a few times in the past but now is probably
:48:37. > :48:39.the time that it is worth I think that's right
:48:40. > :48:44.because if we get the integration right, people will get
:48:45. > :48:46.the services they want. For me, more important
:48:47. > :48:54.is giving it to the people Right now I'm concerned
:48:55. > :48:59.that the money goes to, if you like, the middleman,
:49:00. > :49:02.by which I mean I would like to see it go
:49:03. > :49:06.direct to the providers. You and Sarah Wollaston abstained
:49:07. > :49:09.on the council funding settlement. Why not do the same sort of thing
:49:10. > :49:12.and vote against the budget, if this isn't what you want
:49:13. > :49:16.and the government isn't delivering? Voting against something very much
:49:17. > :49:19.depends upon the totality of what you are voting
:49:20. > :49:22.for or against. That was about something very
:49:23. > :49:24.specific and I didn't agree with what they had done with regard
:49:25. > :49:27.to social care. The budget is hopefully,
:49:28. > :49:30.if they make some changes that The NHS, social care
:49:31. > :49:36.and small business rates, You could make a stand,
:49:37. > :49:40.couldn't you? Let's see what the rest
:49:41. > :49:44.of the budget says. Nobody apart from the Chancellor
:49:45. > :49:46.knows what's in it. For me to say I'm definitely
:49:47. > :49:49.going to abstain would I really don't know what I will do
:49:50. > :49:55.because I want to see Another way of looking at it
:49:56. > :50:00.would be to say that, historically, this money was given to local
:50:01. > :50:03.authorities because they actually Perhaps it makes more sense to give
:50:04. > :50:10.the money and move the whole social care element within the health
:50:11. > :50:14.ministry and then you can actually At the moment you have to have two
:50:15. > :50:19.ministries having a conversation. They have also got
:50:20. > :50:21.different priorities. So it makes far more sense
:50:22. > :50:24.to look at it in the whole. You make the government
:50:25. > :50:29.solely responsible? You have the Secretary of State
:50:30. > :50:32.for Health and he has a senior minister who has responsibility
:50:33. > :50:34.for social care. And you think the councils
:50:35. > :50:37.would breathe a sigh of relief? They wouldn't like it
:50:38. > :50:43.but you can't have it both ways. Moving on, military experts say cuts
:50:44. > :50:50.to the Royal Navy in the 2010 Strategic Defence Review
:50:51. > :50:53.are to blame for its It follows the cancellation
:50:54. > :50:57.of the Culdrose Air Day after the commander of the Cornish
:50:58. > :51:00.base said operations In the meantime, the senior service
:51:01. > :51:04.is now looking to tempt former sailors to rejoin the Navy as it
:51:05. > :51:09.struggles to find 1,000 crew members Here's our defence
:51:10. > :51:14.reporter Scott Bingham. These helicopters and their air
:51:15. > :51:19.crews are training hard for vital roles on board the new carriers,
:51:20. > :51:23.HMS Queen Elizabeth But like much of the Navy,
:51:24. > :51:29.things here are stretched. With seven squadrons
:51:30. > :51:32.based at the station, the commanding officer has said 80%
:51:33. > :51:36.of his front-line personnel are either on operations or at very
:51:37. > :51:42.high readiness ahead of deployments As a result, this year's public air
:51:43. > :51:47.day, an annual summer event, One former Admiral says
:51:48. > :51:53.that is a mistake. This all relates
:51:54. > :51:55.to alack of manpower. I personally believe
:51:56. > :51:58.there is strength in manpower itself and things like air days and putting
:51:59. > :52:01.people out on parade occasionally I think is rather
:52:02. > :52:05.important for the totality The new carriers nearing completion
:52:06. > :52:11.will go some way to addressing But with a crew of 500
:52:12. > :52:17.needed for each, it's now This is HMS Raleigh in Cornwall,
:52:18. > :52:23.where the Royal Navy The latest government figures show
:52:24. > :52:29.that the Navy's regular strength has fallen since April 2013,
:52:30. > :52:34.when it was just over 31,400. And there was a surplus
:52:35. > :52:39.of around 750 personnel. In December last year,
:52:40. > :52:43.it had dropped by nearly 2,000 to just under 29,500,
:52:44. > :52:47.leaving a deficit of more At HMS Raleigh, they talk
:52:48. > :52:55.of growing their own. Recruits have to be rained
:52:56. > :52:58.and that takes time. It desperately needs experienced
:52:59. > :53:04.sailors now and is looking to attract those who may have left
:53:05. > :53:08.back to the senior service Codenamed From Street To Fleet,
:53:09. > :53:14.this ad has been reported as being aimed at over 55s -
:53:15. > :53:19.a sort of Dad's Navy if you like. Though the MoD denied this,
:53:20. > :53:23.it admits there is no upper age limit and each application will be
:53:24. > :53:28.judged on a case-by-case basis. What you're seeing here
:53:29. > :53:34.is a government under David Cameron that decided it would cut the Navy
:53:35. > :53:38.right back, ignored probably the siren calls that this would be
:53:39. > :53:41.a mistake because you never know what's coming, and now,
:53:42. > :53:45.seven years later, the Navy finds itself in a fix
:53:46. > :53:48.because of what happened in that The Navy needs to get out
:53:49. > :53:53.of that fix quickly. HMS Queen Elizabeth is expected
:53:54. > :53:55.to be ready for her first The demands on the service's ships,
:53:56. > :54:02.aircraft and personnel are unlikely Judith, you're the defence
:54:03. > :54:11.spokesperson for defence. Do you think there's a problem
:54:12. > :54:15.with the Navy being overstretched? There are not enough people
:54:16. > :54:21.coming in and young men and women are seeing
:54:22. > :54:24.their careers very different. My husband served in
:54:25. > :54:26.the Navy for 30 years. These days, people are thinking
:54:27. > :54:29.four, maybe six years, we've got that on our CV,
:54:30. > :54:32.we've trained as an engineer and we So people are leaving
:54:33. > :54:37.in a way they never used to. Why would they want
:54:38. > :54:39.to do something else? Certainly the SDSR 2010 one wasn't
:54:40. > :54:49.terribly sensible but very often we've had SDSRs in the past that
:54:50. > :54:53.have got rid of the wrong They've looked at numbers and not
:54:54. > :54:58.at skills and this is pretty much So that is something you would
:54:59. > :55:07.disagree with with your party? Hindsight is wonderful
:55:08. > :55:10.if you just look at numbers. There was a big
:55:11. > :55:12.affordability issue in 2010. There's an affordability
:55:13. > :55:17.issue now as well. I know you are concerned
:55:18. > :55:20.about the fall in sterling If you look at the 2015 SDSR,
:55:21. > :55:32.with all sorts of wonderful bits of kit that we are going to come
:55:33. > :55:35.on stream, pretty well all of them are going to be
:55:36. > :55:39.coming from the States The pound currently buys 20% less
:55:40. > :55:44.than it did as a result There are ways of
:55:45. > :55:49.hedging all of that. But it means if we are buying
:55:50. > :55:52.predominately from abroad, then it's So it's expensive to buy these
:55:53. > :55:58.things we are committed to, at the same time Donald Trump
:55:59. > :56:01.is saying we have to up We are relatively comfortable
:56:02. > :56:07.about our 2% so that's fine. Anne Marie, when you campaigned
:56:08. > :56:11.for Brexit, did you think that there might be a fall
:56:12. > :56:14.in sterling and that it would have Was that something
:56:15. > :56:19.you thought through? When you look at the overall
:56:20. > :56:22.Brexit decision, clearly, on either side, could you guarantee
:56:23. > :56:27.what was going to happen afterwards? I'm still for Brexit
:56:28. > :56:33.and I still think economically We have not had this dreadful
:56:34. > :56:37.recession that was forecast. And I think to say that Brexit has
:56:38. > :56:41.caused the currency rate to change Markets are markets and you will see
:56:42. > :56:46.what happened in America... So the fall in sterling has
:56:47. > :56:49.nothing to do with Brexit? It is part of but not
:56:50. > :56:55.the totality of the reason. The fall in sterling
:56:56. > :57:00.and the expense of buying Clearly it matters but that is
:57:01. > :57:08.the commercial reality and in terms of the percentage,
:57:09. > :57:11.while Judith is right, a lot of our equipment
:57:12. > :57:14.is at the moment sourced If you take the defence budget
:57:15. > :57:19.as a whole, it's relatively small, about 10%, and this is also
:57:20. > :57:22.an opportunity for the British companies to start saying,
:57:23. > :57:26.let's make it at home. But that can take 15 years
:57:27. > :57:28.to bring it through. But Harriet Baldwin has signed
:57:29. > :57:33.contracts in the last few months to buy helicopters from Boeing
:57:34. > :57:37.and we have got huge contract But we have to make decisions
:57:38. > :57:43.now about the future. That doesn't mean to say
:57:44. > :57:46.going forward, particularly when we get the Brexit deal done,
:57:47. > :57:50.that we can't then start beginning to work with our own industries
:57:51. > :57:53.to get them to start One of the problems with defence
:57:54. > :57:58.is the long lead time. Those magnificent carriers
:57:59. > :58:01.were ordered by the Labour We are talking about
:58:02. > :58:07.really long time frames. The other thing I would say
:58:08. > :58:11.with regard to the air day, Dawlish had to cancel its air day
:58:12. > :58:17.as well in light of what happened at Shoreham and it was down
:58:18. > :58:20.to health and safety. They are not saying this
:58:21. > :58:24.is health and safety. Air days are great to have
:58:25. > :58:28.but they are not something that But sometimes they can
:58:29. > :58:32.encourage recruitment. A big air day, sometimes that can
:58:33. > :58:36.encourage a drive in recruitment. The funny thing with this is,
:58:37. > :58:39.there is the money for people, How many times in over a 10 year
:58:40. > :58:46.period or 20 year period do We are launching one
:58:47. > :58:54.aircraft carrier. The second will come on quite
:58:55. > :58:57.quickly afterwards but it will go straight into mothballs
:58:58. > :59:01.because we don't have the men There are long lead times
:59:02. > :59:08.for many of these things. It is time for our regular round-up
:59:09. > :59:20.of the political week in 60 seconds. Plymouth Labour councillor
:59:21. > :59:24.Jonny Morris has been suspended It's appalling and I'm ashamed this
:59:25. > :59:29.has happened in Plymouth and when this happens you need
:59:30. > :59:33.strong leadership and people to get out there and actually say
:59:34. > :59:36.this is unacceptable. Cornwall Council is to spend more
:59:37. > :59:39.than ?300,000 bidding for the Duchy Despite protests, the Boundary
:59:40. > :59:47.Commission is pressing on with plans for a Devonwall constituency
:59:48. > :59:51.straddling the Tamar. And Taunton Deane MP Rebecca Powell
:59:52. > :59:56.showered praise on the government Perhaps you, like many
:59:57. > :00:00.other honourable friends and members here today,
:00:01. > :00:06.took a shower this morning. Shower gel products containing them
:00:07. > :00:11.can result in 100,000 micro beads or plastics being washed down
:00:12. > :00:15.the drain every time we use them, into the water system and then
:00:16. > :00:23.into the marine environment. Anna Marie, should Labour's Jonny
:00:24. > :00:28.Morris resign for making He's behaved incredibly foolishly
:00:29. > :00:33.and it's completely unacceptable I would have said the thing
:00:34. > :00:38.that should happen now is his constituents,
:00:39. > :00:39.yes, he should resign, but his constituents,
:00:40. > :00:41.because that's who he's answerable to, should mount a petition
:00:42. > :00:44.to him because that would put on the pressure,
:00:45. > :00:47.but it's not acceptable. The Labour Party acted very quickly,
:00:48. > :00:54.they couldn't do anything else, but it's 2017 and we shouldn't be
:00:55. > :00:58.doing this sort of thing. What about, moving back to something
:00:59. > :01:02.different, Truro's bid to be ?300,000 when we are
:01:03. > :01:09.about to leave Europe? We were chatting about this before
:01:10. > :01:21.we came in and I think even if we aren't selected,
:01:22. > :01:25.even if we don't win the bid, it will be really good for Cornwall
:01:26. > :01:28.because there's an awful lot of stuff we haven't
:01:29. > :01:31.thought about doing. We can think through the plans
:01:32. > :01:34.and strategy and still learn. I am going to have
:01:35. > :01:37.to stop you there. That is the Sunday Politics
:01:38. > :01:40.in the South West. Now back to Andrew
:01:41. > :01:51.with the week ahead. need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:52. > :01:53.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:54. > :01:58.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:01:59. > :02:04.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:05. > :02:07.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:08. > :02:10.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:11. > :02:22.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:23. > :02:26.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:27. > :02:31.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:32. > :02:38.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:39. > :02:41.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:42. > :02:48.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:49. > :02:54.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:55. > :02:59.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:03:00. > :03:02.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:03. > :03:10.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:11. > :03:13.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:14. > :03:18.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:19. > :03:26.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:27. > :03:30.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:31. > :03:37.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:38. > :03:42.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:43. > :03:48.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:49. > :03:52.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:53. > :03:57.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:58. > :04:01.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:02. > :04:06.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:07. > :04:12.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:13. > :04:17.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:18. > :04:22.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:23. > :04:25.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:26. > :04:30.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:31. > :04:34.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:35. > :04:40.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:41. > :04:46.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:47. > :04:54.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:55. > :04:59.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:05:00. > :05:05.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:06. > :05:11.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:12. > :05:18.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:19. > :05:23.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:24. > :05:29.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:30. > :05:33.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:34. > :05:37.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:38. > :05:40.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:41. > :05:43.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:44. > :05:47.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:48. > :05:49.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:50. > :05:51.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:52. > :05:57.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:58. > :06:00.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:01. > :06:16.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:17. > :06:29.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:30. > :06:34.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:35. > :06:39.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:40. > :06:43.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:44. > :06:47.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:48. > :06:53.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:54. > :06:56.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:57. > :07:00.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:01. > :07:05.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:06. > :07:09.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:10. > :07:14.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:15. > :07:19.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:20. > :07:23.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:24. > :07:31.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:32. > :07:37.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:38. > :07:42.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:43. > :07:46.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:47. > :07:51.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:52. > :07:57.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:58. > :08:01.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:02. > :08:10.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:11. > :08:14.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:15. > :08:19.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:20. > :08:23.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:24. > :08:29.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:30. > :08:33.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:34. > :08:38.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:39. > :08:42.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:43. > :08:48.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:49. > :08:52.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:53. > :08:57.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:58. > :09:04.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:05. > :09:11.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:12. > :09:18.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:19. > :09:22.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:23. > :09:24.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:25. > :09:26.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:27. > :09:29.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:30. > :09:32."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:33. > :09:35.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:36. > :09:49.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:50. > :09:51.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:52. > :09:58."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:59. > :10:11.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:12. > :10:12.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:13. > :10:25.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:26. > :10:30.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:31. > :10:33.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:34. > :10:40.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:41. > :10:47.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:48. > :10:52.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:53. > :10:56.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:57. > :11:09.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:10. > :11:14.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:15. > :11:18.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:19. > :11:26.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:27. > :11:30.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:31. > :11:34.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:35. > :11:40.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:41. > :11:45.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:46. > :11:49.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:50. > :11:56.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:57. > :12:01.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:02. > :12:05.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:06. > :12:10.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:11. > :12:15.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:16. > :12:19.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:20. > :12:24.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:25. > :12:27.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:28. > :12:31.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:32. > :12:35.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:36. > :12:40.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:41. > :12:43.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:44. > :12:51.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:52. > :12:56.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:57. > :13:00.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:01. > :13:05.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:06. > :13:10.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:11. > :13:13.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:14. > :13:23.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:24. > :13:27.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:28. > :13:34.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:35. > :13:39.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:40. > :13:42.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:43. > :13:44.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:45. > :14:34.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:35. > :14:37.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.
:14:38. > :14:41.We're right in the middle of the action.
:14:42. > :14:46.The remarkable story of British photography.