:00:35. > :00:38.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:42.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:43. > :00:46.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:47. > :00:52.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:53. > :00:55.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:56. > :01:01.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:02. > :01:03.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:04. > :01:11.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:12. > :01:13.In the south-west, the government starts charging people
:01:14. > :01:17.Will it help with skills shortages or stand in the way of business?
:01:18. > :01:20.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:21. > :01:27.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:28. > :01:30.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:31. > :01:32.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:33. > :01:37.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:38. > :01:40.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:41. > :01:42.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:43. > :01:48.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:49. > :01:51.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:52. > :01:56.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:57. > :01:59.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:00. > :02:05.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:06. > :02:11.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:12. > :02:15.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:16. > :02:17.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:18. > :02:20.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:21. > :02:23.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:24. > :02:26.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:27. > :02:37.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:38. > :02:42.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:43. > :02:47.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:48. > :02:52.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:53. > :02:59.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:00. > :03:03.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:04. > :03:10.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:11. > :03:18.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:19. > :03:22.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:23. > :03:27.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:28. > :03:33.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:34. > :03:35.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:36. > :03:42.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:43. > :03:50.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:51. > :03:57.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:58. > :04:00.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:01. > :04:05.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:06. > :04:10.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:11. > :04:15.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:16. > :04:19.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:20. > :04:25.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:26. > :04:30.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:31. > :04:34.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:35. > :04:38.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:39. > :04:43.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:44. > :04:49.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:50. > :04:52.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:53. > :04:57.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:04:58. > :05:02.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:03. > :05:08.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:09. > :05:13.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:14. > :05:16.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:17. > :05:23.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:24. > :05:30.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:31. > :05:34.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:35. > :05:38.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:39. > :05:45.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:46. > :05:52.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:53. > :05:55.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:56. > :05:59.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:00. > :06:05.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:06. > :06:08.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:09. > :06:20.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:21. > :06:25.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:26. > :06:29.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:30. > :06:34.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:35. > :06:43.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:44. > :06:45.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:46. > :06:49.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:50. > :06:51.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:52. > :06:54.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:55. > :06:56.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:57. > :06:58.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:06:59. > :07:00.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:01. > :07:03.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:04. > :07:08.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:09. > :07:10.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:11. > :07:20.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:21. > :07:22.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:23. > :07:25.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:26. > :07:31.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:32. > :07:34.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:35. > :07:40.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:41. > :07:47.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:48. > :07:49.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:50. > :07:52."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:53. > :07:54.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:55. > :07:58.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:07:59. > :08:02.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:03. > :08:08.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:09. > :08:11.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:12. > :08:14.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:15. > :08:16.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:17. > :08:19.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:20. > :08:21.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:22. > :08:27.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:28. > :08:31.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:32. > :08:40.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:41. > :08:55.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:56. > :08:55.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:56. > :08:55.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:56. > :08:56.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:57. > :08:59.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:00. > :09:02.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:03. > :09:05.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:06. > :09:07.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:08. > :09:09.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:10. > :09:15.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:16. > :09:17.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:18. > :09:23.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:24. > :09:26.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:27. > :09:28.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:29. > :09:34.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:35. > :09:36.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:37. > :09:43.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:44. > :09:46.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:47. > :09:49.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:50. > :09:57.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:58. > :09:59.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:00. > :10:03.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:04. > :10:05.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:06. > :10:12.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:13. > :10:15.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:16. > :10:17.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:18. > :10:21.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:22. > :10:29.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:30. > :10:34.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:35. > :10:40.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:41. > :10:43.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:44. > :10:46.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:47. > :10:56.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:57. > :11:03.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:04. > :11:11.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:12. > :11:14.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:15. > :11:22.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:23. > :11:28.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:29. > :11:33.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:34. > :11:36.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:37. > :11:42.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:43. > :11:47.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:48. > :11:51.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:52. > :11:56.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:57. > :11:59.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:00. > :12:07.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:08. > :12:10.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:11. > :12:16.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:17. > :12:23.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:24. > :12:28.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:29. > :12:32.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:33. > :12:36.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:37. > :12:43.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:44. > :12:47.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:48. > :12:55.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:56. > :13:01.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:02. > :13:06.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:07. > :13:10.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:11. > :13:20.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:21. > :13:23.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:24. > :13:29.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:30. > :13:32.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:33. > :13:37.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:38. > :13:41.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:42. > :13:46.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:47. > :13:50.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:51. > :13:57.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:13:58. > :14:01.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:02. > :14:05.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:06. > :14:12.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:13. > :14:16.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:17. > :14:21.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:22. > :14:26.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:27. > :14:30.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:31. > :14:36.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:37. > :14:41.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:42. > :14:45.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:46. > :14:49.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:50. > :14:52.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:53. > :14:58.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:14:59. > :15:05.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:06. > :15:09.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:10. > :15:14.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:15. > :15:22.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:23. > :15:27.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:28. > :15:31.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:32. > :15:37.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:38. > :15:40.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:41. > :15:42.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:43. > :15:54.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:55. > :16:00.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:01. > :16:07.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:08. > :16:10.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:11. > :16:17.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:18. > :16:21.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:22. > :16:28.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:29. > :16:33.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:34. > :16:37.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:38. > :16:42.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:43. > :16:46.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:47. > :16:51.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:52. > :16:54.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:55. > :16:59.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:00. > :17:05.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:06. > :17:10.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:11. > :17:15.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:16. > :17:22.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:23. > :17:25.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:26. > :17:28.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:29. > :17:34.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:35. > :17:37.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:38. > :17:49.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:50. > :17:51.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:52. > :17:53.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:54. > :17:57.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:58. > :18:03.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:04. > :18:08.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:09. > :18:12.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:13. > :18:17.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:18. > :18:22.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:23. > :18:27.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:28. > :18:28.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:29. > :18:31.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:32. > :18:33.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:34. > :18:35.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:36. > :18:38.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:39. > :18:41.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:42. > :18:44.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:45. > :18:48.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:49. > :18:55.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:56. > :19:02.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:03. > :19:06.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:07. > :19:08.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:09. > :19:15.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:16. > :19:18.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:19. > :19:20.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:21. > :19:23.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:24. > :19:26.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:27. > :19:31.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:32. > :19:37.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:38. > :19:39.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:40. > :19:41.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:42. > :19:43.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:44. > :19:49.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:50. > :19:51.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:52. > :19:58.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:19:59. > :20:00.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:01. > :20:05.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:06. > :20:07.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:08. > :20:11.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:12. > :20:13.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:14. > :20:22.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:23. > :20:25.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:26. > :20:27.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:28. > :20:29.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:30. > :20:37.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:38. > :20:41.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:42. > :20:46.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:47. > :20:50.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:51. > :20:55.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:56. > :20:59.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:00. > :21:02.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:03. > :21:14.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:15. > :21:17.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:18. > :21:19.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:20. > :21:22.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:23. > :21:26.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:27. > :21:30.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:31. > :21:34.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:35. > :21:39.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:40. > :21:43.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:44. > :21:46.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:47. > :21:54.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:55. > :21:56.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:57. > :22:00.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:01. > :22:04.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:05. > :22:08.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:09. > :22:11.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:12. > :22:16.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:17. > :22:20.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:21. > :22:51.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:52. > :22:55.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:56. > :22:57.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:58. > :23:00.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:01. > :23:02.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:03. > :23:05.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:06. > :23:07.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:08. > :23:10.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:11. > :23:12.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:13. > :23:15.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:16. > :23:17.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:18. > :23:21.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:22. > :23:26.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:27. > :23:30.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:31. > :23:35.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:36. > :23:43.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:44. > :23:47.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:48. > :23:53.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:54. > :23:57.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:58. > :24:02.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:03. > :24:06.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:07. > :24:10.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:11. > :24:15.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:16. > :24:23.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:24. > :24:26.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:27. > :24:29.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:30. > :24:33.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:34. > :24:37.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:38. > :24:42.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:43. > :24:46.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:47. > :24:53.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:54. > :24:56.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:57. > :25:02.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:03. > :25:06.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:07. > :25:11.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:12. > :25:16.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:17. > :25:21.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:22. > :25:24.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:25. > :25:40.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:41. > :25:42.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:43. > :25:44.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:45. > :25:47.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:48. > :25:50.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:51. > :25:56.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:57. > :26:00.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:01. > :26:05.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:06. > :26:11.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:12. > :26:16.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:17. > :26:20.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:21. > :26:26.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:27. > :26:34.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:35. > :26:38.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:39. > :26:44.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:45. > :26:49.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:50. > :26:55.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:56. > :26:59.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:00. > :27:04.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:05. > :27:06.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:07. > :27:12.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:13. > :27:14.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:15. > :27:19.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:20. > :27:23.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:24. > :27:28.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:29. > :27:32.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:33. > :27:39.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:40. > :27:44.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:45. > :27:49.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:50. > :28:09.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:10. > :28:13.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:14. > :28:15.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:16. > :28:17.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:18. > :28:19.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:20. > :28:22.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:23. > :28:25.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:26. > :28:27.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:28. > :28:32.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:33. > :28:37.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:38. > :28:43.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:44. > :28:46.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:47. > :28:49.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:50. > :28:51.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:52. > :28:54.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:55. > :28:56.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:57. > :29:01.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:02. > :29:04.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:05. > :29:08.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:09. > :29:10.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:11. > :29:12.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:13. > :29:14.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:15. > :29:18.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:19. > :29:25.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:26. > :29:27.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:28. > :29:32.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:33. > :29:35.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:36. > :29:40.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:41. > :29:45.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:46. > :29:49.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:50. > :29:55.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:56. > :30:01.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:02. > :30:05.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:06. > :30:10.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:11. > :30:14.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:15. > :30:18.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:19. > :30:24.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:25. > :30:32.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:33. > :30:40.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:41. > :30:46.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:47. > :30:55.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:56. > :30:58.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:30:59. > :31:03.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:04. > :31:08.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:09. > :31:15.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:16. > :31:22.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:23. > :31:25.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:26. > :31:29.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:30. > :31:35.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:36. > :31:42.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:43. > :31:47.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:48. > :31:50.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:51. > :31:58.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:31:59. > :32:04.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:05. > :32:08.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:09. > :32:16.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:17. > :32:21.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:22. > :32:28.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:29. > :32:31.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:32. > :32:36.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:37. > :32:41.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:42. > :32:45.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:46. > :32:50.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:51. > :32:54.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:55. > :33:01.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:02. > :33:06.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:07. > :33:13.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:14. > :33:18.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:19. > :33:24.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:25. > :33:34.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:35. > :33:39.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:40. > :33:43.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:44. > :33:49.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:50. > :33:55.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:56. > :34:08.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:09. > :34:11.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:12. > :34:15.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:16. > :34:25.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:26. > :34:30.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:31. > :34:36.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:37. > :34:40.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:41. > :34:47.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:48. > :34:52.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:53. > :34:58.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:34:59. > :35:03.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:04. > :35:07.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:08. > :35:12.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:13. > :35:16.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:17. > :35:21.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:22. > :35:27.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:28. > :35:29.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:30. > :35:35.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:36. > :35:39.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:40. > :35:44.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:45. > :35:47.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:48. > :35:52.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:53. > :35:59.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:00. > :36:03.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:04. > :36:07.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:08. > :36:16.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:17. > :36:22.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:23. > :36:27.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:28. > :36:29.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:30. > :36:34.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:35. > :36:39.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:40. > :36:44.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:45. > :36:49.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:50. > :36:53.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:54. > :36:57.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:36:58. > :37:00.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:01. > :37:04.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:05. > :37:07.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:08. > :37:16.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:17. > :37:21.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:22. > :37:25.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:26. > :37:28.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:29. > :37:34.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:35. > :37:39.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:40. > :37:42.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:43. > :37:50.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:51. > :38:05.Coming up on the Sunday Politics here in the southwest.
:38:06. > :38:12.Will it get employers to train up British workers instead?
:38:13. > :38:14.Effectively they are making the UK software industry less competitive,
:38:15. > :38:16.less productive and therefore giving an advantage to
:38:17. > :38:26.For the next 20 minutes I'm joined by Tudor Evans,
:38:27. > :38:29.the Labour group leader on Plymouth City Council,
:38:30. > :38:31.and the Conservative MP for St Ives, Derek Thomas.
:38:32. > :38:42.So, after nine months, the two-year journey towards the EU
:38:43. > :38:50.Derek, are we going to see anything concrete happen from now
:38:51. > :38:55.I think we will see some clear ideas about the negotiation,
:38:56. > :39:05.The Prime Minister has been very clear, and it is important
:39:06. > :39:08.for all of us that the rights of EU nationals is on the agenda,
:39:09. > :39:12.There is lots of consultation going on.
:39:13. > :39:13.The industrial strategy, food and farming, things
:39:14. > :39:16.Will we see anything specific because we have
:39:17. > :39:19.this Great Repeal Bill, which is almost a funny name
:39:20. > :39:32.because it should be called an integration bill.
:39:33. > :39:34.Won't the time be taken up with integrating all these
:39:35. > :39:36.policies into UK law, rather than making any changes?
:39:37. > :39:39.I think what we will see is clear direction of travel
:39:40. > :39:42.about the destiny the UK wants to go, and the journey
:39:43. > :39:52.You're right, the deal will be in two years,
:39:53. > :39:54.and it is only then we will get to see.
:39:55. > :39:56.I guess what you're talking about is concrete.
:39:57. > :40:11.Tudor, how is Labour going to hold the government to account?
:40:12. > :40:17.And it is getting tighter because our clock has started.
:40:18. > :40:19.But the EU said, hang on a minute, we're not ready yet,
:40:20. > :40:22.we have German elections to sort out, and we cannot really decide
:40:23. > :40:25.what is going to happen until we know what's happening
:40:26. > :40:27.in Germany because they are such a big player.
:40:28. > :40:28.The German elections are not until autumn.
:40:29. > :40:31.He hasn't specifically said that, that is just no set timetable.
:40:32. > :40:34.The clock is ticking, the two-year button has been pressed
:40:35. > :40:39.So the one bit of element of surprise we had available to us,
:40:40. > :40:44.Should Theresa May have waited before triggering Article 50?
:40:45. > :40:47.During negotiations there are two things that are going to happen.
:40:48. > :40:51.First of all you've got to decide what it is you want to achieve.
:40:52. > :40:53.They have decided that yet, other than getting out
:40:54. > :40:55.of the European Union, and secondly you have to have
:40:56. > :40:59.So here we are in a situation where our precious time
:41:00. > :41:02.is being wasted waiting for somebody to come to the table.
:41:03. > :41:06.We could come back to all of this but we have to move on
:41:07. > :41:09.because we are looking outside the EU because companies who employ
:41:10. > :41:11.skilled workers from outside the EU are about to start paying
:41:12. > :41:15.The government is imposing a levy of ?1,000 a year
:41:16. > :41:18.The idea is to encourage employers to train Brits instead,
:41:19. > :41:21.but is it another hurdle for firms in the south-west, many
:41:22. > :41:25.about recruitment problems anyway with Brexit on the horizon?
:41:26. > :41:31.A changing landscape with high-tech jobs taking the place
:41:32. > :41:33.of Cornwall's old industries, but how will government plans
:41:34. > :41:35.to control immigration suit companies with global ambitions?
:41:36. > :41:39.A software development company based in this EU funded building says that
:41:40. > :41:40.since the referendum, the number of EU nationals
:41:41. > :41:47.Rapidly expanding, the firm grew from 55 to 90
:41:48. > :41:53.With hopes to double again this year.
:41:54. > :41:56.Around a quarter of the workforce comes from outside the UK,
:41:57. > :41:57.spanning 18 nationalities, from Asia, Africa, South America,
:41:58. > :42:06.Simply because of the need to meet demand quickly.
:42:07. > :42:10.A new ?1,000 a year levy on skilled workers from outside the EU will hit
:42:11. > :42:15.Effectively they are making the UK software industry less competitive,
:42:16. > :42:17.less productive and therefore giving an advantage to
:42:18. > :42:27.That means that work that would have been done in the UK with all the tax
:42:28. > :42:29.being paid in the UK will have to go abroad.
:42:30. > :42:31.Which really is a bit silly because we're shooting
:42:32. > :42:45.A ministerial hint that post Brexit this levy also apply for each
:42:46. > :42:47.skilled recruit from within the EU is quickly dismissed.
:42:48. > :42:50.The Home Office said a whole range of options could be considered
:42:51. > :42:57.to control immigration once we leave the EU.
:42:58. > :43:00.But new Romanian arrival Daniel says it is uncertainty like this that
:43:01. > :43:01.will make others like him already think twice.
:43:02. > :43:04.They will be less likely to come here, they will feel...
:43:05. > :43:08.I guess everyone will feel the same, uncertainty.
:43:09. > :43:11.People working in my professions, people working in other
:43:12. > :43:17.The government doesn't want to tell us what the plan is,
:43:18. > :43:24.if they have a plan, and ultimately we cannot rely
:43:25. > :43:28.on a government that doesn't appear to know what it's doing to know
:43:29. > :43:31.exactly where we're going to be in a year or two.
:43:32. > :43:33.Ultimately, if we do reach the limit, that is where will have
:43:34. > :43:36.to look at a contingency plan of setting up an office
:43:37. > :43:40.It is not just the high-tech industry.
:43:41. > :43:42.Health and social care, farming, hotels and restaurants,
:43:43. > :43:55.All are sectors traditionally reliant on thousands
:43:56. > :43:58.of non-UK workers from both within the EU and beyond.
:43:59. > :44:01.And tourism leaders are warning there must be a route into the UK
:44:02. > :44:06.I'm sure people who voted to control immigration as part of the Brexit
:44:07. > :44:08.referendum didn't want people that were British to be held up
:44:09. > :44:11.in their careers are held down in jobs when they could advance
:44:12. > :44:12.because of not thinking this through.
:44:13. > :44:15.It is all very solvable but it has to be addressed,
:44:16. > :44:18.and there has to be a dialogue with the industry but also
:44:19. > :44:21.with the British people to explain that we do need labour supply
:44:22. > :44:23.to have a healthy economy so we can all progress.
:44:24. > :44:26.Ministers say the new skills levy is designed to incentivise firms
:44:27. > :44:35.Meanwhile the government's post Brexit policy on immigration
:44:36. > :44:37.was no clearer this week, with the Prime Minister saying
:44:38. > :44:40.she cannot guarantee it will be significantly lower.
:44:41. > :44:51.Derek, is this really the right policy to introduce
:44:52. > :44:53.a levy on those very companies perhaps in the south-west
:44:54. > :44:57.Firstly, we are talking about skilled jobs,
:44:58. > :45:00.and there is an incentive because what we're trying to do,
:45:01. > :45:03.and the government, several governments have tried to wrestle
:45:04. > :45:04.with this, is the lack of productivity in British
:45:05. > :45:07.workforce, but also the fact that we just had this huge skills
:45:08. > :45:17.Surely you should phase this in, then, if those companies
:45:18. > :45:19.need skilled workers now and they are being charged ?1000
:45:20. > :45:22.to bring in a person who is already skilled,
:45:23. > :45:28.We heard the software manager saying all that will happen is they will be
:45:29. > :45:30.relocating abroad and take the jobs and taxation with them.
:45:31. > :45:32.He was talking about what happened with Brexit.
:45:33. > :45:35.No, he was talking about what would happen if he was charged ?1000
:45:36. > :45:41.This isn't a new idea, this is something we announced over
:45:42. > :45:45.Most people would agree that we are saying to British
:45:46. > :45:46.employers, and we're talking about large employers,
:45:47. > :45:49.the small employers and charities pay a much smaller charge,
:45:50. > :45:51.and there are many that would be exempt from this.
:45:52. > :45:56.But actually we are trying to get employers to take much more
:45:57. > :46:01.interest in continuing training people that work for them
:46:02. > :46:02.so they continue to train through their careers.
:46:03. > :46:10.But what I would say is the obvious point,
:46:11. > :46:25.Because what would help, if there is a problem and we haven't
:46:26. > :46:28.had it described to us what problem this is solving,...
:46:29. > :46:30.Immigration, I suppose, to try to bring the figures
:46:31. > :46:39.What they are saying is that it a displacement of British
:46:40. > :46:42.intellectual property from people outside coming in to do those jobs.
:46:43. > :46:52.And the kinds of companies we talking about here,
:46:53. > :46:54.high-net value companies, they can be anywhere, they can set
:46:55. > :46:58.So this is a disincentive to come to the UK?
:46:59. > :47:00.Yes, the opposite of what is intended.
:47:01. > :47:03.It will stop people coming and setting up companies here,
:47:04. > :47:07.and may move successful companies abroad.
:47:08. > :47:20.Where a business can demonstrate there are no skills
:47:21. > :47:23.in a country that suit the demand, there are
:47:24. > :47:27.What we're trying to say is employers should look
:47:28. > :47:29.in the British workforce, people in the UK today,
:47:30. > :47:33.and may well be from around the rest of the world, is their skills
:47:34. > :47:38.today they use today, rather than take a short cut?
:47:39. > :47:41.Aside from skills, this is about immigration.
:47:42. > :47:44.A lot of people voted for Brexit on the basis they wanted less people
:47:45. > :47:51.Surely you can give a figure for the maximum number of people
:47:52. > :47:55.No, because this is about what skills are needed
:47:56. > :48:02.David Cameron spoke about the tens of thousands.
:48:03. > :48:04.He never managed to achieve under 100,000.
:48:05. > :48:07.I suppose this idea is to try to reduce the number
:48:08. > :48:18.You're right, I do not think we are talking about a figure,
:48:19. > :48:20.we are talking about the needs of the British industry
:48:21. > :48:24.But what we're talking about here is already there are very
:48:25. > :48:26.strict rules about people coming from outside the European
:48:27. > :48:37.There are, so it is not working already, the immigration policy?
:48:38. > :48:39.We're not providing the skills that British people want,
:48:40. > :48:41.not investing in the skills of British workers.
:48:42. > :48:45.Labour has not come up with a figure either, has it?
:48:46. > :48:48.Excuse me, again, I'm not here to defend Labour.
:48:49. > :48:51.Let us talk about the government for a minute because it is the policy.
:48:52. > :48:53.You're the opposition and you need to be...
:48:54. > :48:57.This would be my idea, you asked me the question,
:48:58. > :49:01.this is at a time when grants for nursing bursaries are being cut,
:49:02. > :49:03.where university tuition fees have trebled, where the incentive
:49:04. > :49:05.for young people to upscale and training is being removed
:49:06. > :49:07.all over the place, and so the preventative work
:49:08. > :49:10.the government should be doing is investing in the workforce
:49:11. > :49:21.of tomorrow, not punishing the workforce of today.
:49:22. > :49:24.But this policy tries to do that in a way.
:49:25. > :49:27.It takes three or four years to get a graduate through,
:49:28. > :49:30.it takes a moment to get a company to decide if had enough
:49:31. > :49:37.There has been a huge growth in modern apprenticeship degree
:49:38. > :49:47.level skills in this country, a massive intake on that.
:49:48. > :49:54.So we are training young people, there's huge progress.
:49:55. > :49:57.There is a legion of unemployed young people who cannot get work
:49:58. > :49:59.There is no evidence to support this policy.
:50:00. > :50:02.Another thing I'd like to talk about with the policy is,
:50:03. > :50:05.it seems strange at a time when you're trying to create
:50:06. > :50:07.fairness in bringing in people from outside the country,
:50:08. > :50:10.so from the EU and outside the EU, but you're penalising those
:50:11. > :50:15.And also, you need to go to those countries and try to have a good
:50:16. > :50:18.We're not penalising the employers outside the European Union.
:50:19. > :50:21.We're saying to employers in the UK, when you look for people
:50:22. > :50:25.That includes the European Union, we are still part of
:50:26. > :50:28.At the moment that is where we are, we're looking at how
:50:29. > :50:31.we manage to grow the skills within the country, including
:50:32. > :50:34.Let me give you one example of why this
:50:35. > :50:38.We just had an enterprise zone set up in Plymouth to charge zero rates
:50:39. > :50:40.for businesses to come into the country.
:50:41. > :50:48.For the very companies that this levy will hit hardest.
:50:49. > :50:51.So this is a disincentive that is much bigger
:50:52. > :50:53.than the incentives we are able to provide to attract good
:50:54. > :50:56.We will follow this and see what happens.
:50:57. > :51:00.As the NHS wrestles with record demand from patients,
:51:01. > :51:05.local pharmacies say they are taking the heat off GP surgeries
:51:06. > :51:10.and hospitals by providing advice and treatment on the high street.
:51:11. > :51:16.But a big cut in the funding they get is leading to fears
:51:17. > :51:17.of closures, and claims the government's prescription
:51:18. > :51:19.is limiting their ability to support the NHS.
:51:20. > :51:25.On drugs and medicines, the National Health service brings
:51:26. > :51:30.Today that figure is closer to ?17 billion.
:51:31. > :51:32.Last December the government implemented funding cuts to local
:51:33. > :51:40.Because they get paid in arrears, it's only now those cuts
:51:41. > :51:44.The pharmacy gets paid for dispensing prescriptions,
:51:45. > :51:47.but we obviously do loads of extra things that have a huge amount
:51:48. > :51:52.Free triage, you can see a pharmacist without an appointment,
:51:53. > :51:56.highly trained health care professional with ready access,
:51:57. > :52:03.free delivery services, and those are the things that
:52:04. > :52:08.are going to be at risk, and those are the things we have
:52:09. > :52:10.to maybe cut back on, will we reduced opening
:52:11. > :52:16.It seems at odds with the government's message
:52:17. > :52:18.and NHS England's message of going to the pharmacy first
:52:19. > :52:26.Nick is a third-generation pharmacist, who started working
:52:27. > :52:28.on his grandfathers pharmacy in Newquay, stacking
:52:29. > :52:32.Now he employs 18 people to work with him dispensing 1000
:52:33. > :52:36.He feels the government isn't listening on understanding the value
:52:37. > :52:38.of what the community pharmacies can deliver.
:52:39. > :52:39.Pharmacists feared thousands of dispensaries may have
:52:40. > :52:41.to shut, which reminds him of other community closures.
:52:42. > :52:44.The post office, village pub and the community pharmacy
:52:45. > :52:45.were always the centre of rural life.
:52:46. > :52:56.If you take the example of a small village near lands end,
:52:57. > :52:59.If you take the example of a small village near Land's End,
:53:00. > :53:05.no additional pharmacy for at least seven or eight miles,
:53:06. > :53:07.already they are having to reduce their delivery service.
:53:08. > :53:13.As pharmacist and caring professionals, we want to deliver
:53:14. > :53:15.this, but it's really hard to do it under the cost
:53:16. > :53:20.Lynn is a carer for her dad who is 92, and also her
:53:21. > :53:24.She says she depends on Nick and his team who deliver drugs
:53:25. > :53:28.It doesn't make sense, it is total false economy.
:53:29. > :53:30.I don't know who makes these decisions, I really don't.
:53:31. > :53:33.You know, there are posters up saying, when to go to your GP,
:53:34. > :53:36.when to go to the hospital, and when you can cut those people
:53:37. > :53:40.And they are going to reduce the pharmacies.
:53:41. > :53:43.I cannot imagine them not being there and being part
:53:44. > :54:06.and then the government have got three of us to look after.
:54:07. > :54:08.The Department of Health in a statement said,
:54:09. > :54:11.they believe the changes implemented last December will improve
:54:12. > :54:13.the service offered to the public, for example by further integrating
:54:14. > :54:17.They say they are ensuring they make better use of pharmacists' valuable
:54:18. > :54:21.clinical skills and allocate taxpayers money more efficiently.
:54:22. > :54:24.Let's look at developing the role of the community pharmacist to help
:54:25. > :54:26.aid and support the rest of the health care system.
:54:27. > :54:30.Pharmacy is the first port of call especially at the weekend.
:54:31. > :54:33.People in crisis come to us first because we are here.
:54:34. > :54:37.My worry is if that reduces, then we're not there.
:54:38. > :54:44.Derek, I know you're interested in this because you raised it
:54:45. > :54:48.But it does seem strange, doesn't it, at a time when you're
:54:49. > :54:51.hoping pharmacies can pick up the slack from GP surgeries to start
:54:52. > :54:57.We need to look closely as it evolves.
:54:58. > :55:00.You're right, I was the first MP to raise it, to hold
:55:01. > :55:02.a debate in Parliament, just weeks after the government
:55:03. > :55:05.wrote to pharmacies explaining what they were hoping to achieve.
:55:06. > :55:07.And there is a real opportunity for pharmacies to bring
:55:08. > :55:14.The lady in your clip is right, she has a service from her pharmacy
:55:15. > :55:16.which is unequalled because they are so close to home,
:55:17. > :55:20.and often they will deliver out of hours and often
:55:21. > :55:33.Quite rightly they take the pressure off GPs,
:55:34. > :55:35.and they can do great work to manage long-term conditions.
:55:36. > :55:37.But it is also worth the pharmacies...
:55:38. > :55:40.My particular debate and argument for all of last year was to protect
:55:41. > :55:42.rural community pharmacy because they are the ones...
:55:43. > :55:46.One of which in your constituency that we mentioned there,
:55:47. > :55:49.reducing deliveries in an area where there are very few buses.
:55:50. > :55:53.That is right, they have reduced the hours to provide the service,
:55:54. > :55:55.I think they are delivering the same amount of goods.
:55:56. > :55:57.But David is a really good example of how brilliant
:55:58. > :56:06.And they could do without having the cuts.
:56:07. > :56:08.Tudor, is it a mistake to cut subsidies to pharmacies?
:56:09. > :56:17.It is devastating for the little guys, the independents.
:56:18. > :56:25.If you are Boots, you can sell more hairdryers
:56:26. > :56:27.or aftershave or chocolate, and all the rest of it.
:56:28. > :56:29.Lines that are not carried in small community pharmacies.
:56:30. > :56:32.They rely on this grant to keep them going.
:56:33. > :56:34.The context for the city is just as important because you think
:56:35. > :56:38.that is where the independents are, on the estates.
:56:39. > :56:41.You wouldn't see Boots on a rundown estate, but you would see
:56:42. > :56:45.What about this policy to try and get people out of GP surgeries
:56:46. > :56:48.It is another example of, instead of having
:56:49. > :56:50.a Blackadder of policy-making, we have a Baldrick.
:56:51. > :56:52.Because they are saying one thing, this "cunning plan",
:56:53. > :56:55.to have everyone go from GP to the pharmacy at the same time as
:56:56. > :56:57.cutting and threatening the availability of pharmacies.
:56:58. > :57:00.Should Labour have done a bit more than you were in government
:57:01. > :57:03.Once again you're asking me about labour.
:57:04. > :57:18.I know that, but let's talk about government four minutes
:57:19. > :57:21.-- I know that, but let's talk about government for a minute
:57:22. > :57:23.because I think Labour's record for developing pharmacies.
:57:24. > :57:26.Look at Plymouth, and the number of new pharmacies that sprung up
:57:27. > :57:28.next to new doctor surgeries and walk in centres...
:57:29. > :57:30.That sounds good, that sounds like action.
:57:31. > :57:41.Maybe they've had a bit too much money over the years?
:57:42. > :57:45.Here we are, you're dammed if you do and damned if you don't.
:57:46. > :57:46.It's important we understand what is being changed.
:57:47. > :57:48.At the moment, a pharmacy, including the multiples,
:57:49. > :57:51.just received a fixed fee for existing and it didn't really
:57:52. > :57:55.They can do just over 2000 transactions, and that was it.
:57:56. > :57:56.My argument was for the rural pharmacy.
:57:57. > :57:59.In the high street if you have nine pharmacies close
:58:00. > :58:01.together in a town centre, the government are being each
:58:02. > :58:04.of them the fixed fee just for existing, whether or not
:58:05. > :58:09.I'm old enough to remember when the Conservatives
:58:10. > :58:15.It is time for our regular round-up of the political week in 60 seconds.
:58:16. > :58:17.More than ?1 billion is to be spent improving
:58:18. > :58:20.But campaigners say passengers west of Exeter won't benefit.
:58:21. > :58:23.NHS managers dealing with proposed cuts say they are facing
:58:24. > :58:25.abuse at public meetings and being threatened online.
:58:26. > :58:30.Staff are being verbally abused when they are going
:58:31. > :58:38.about their business in the street, when they are not on work time.
:58:39. > :58:41.Royal Marine Alexander Blackman will be freed soon, after his murder
:58:42. > :58:43.conviction for killing a wounded Taliban fighter was
:58:44. > :58:50.A criminal offence, yes, but massively mitigated
:58:51. > :58:55.as three eminent world-renowned psychiatrists have stated.
:58:56. > :58:57.And the Prime Minister was asked whether more could be spent
:58:58. > :59:02.Brain tumour research on receives about 1%
:59:03. > :59:14.of all research funding for cancer, and yet it kills...
:59:15. > :59:17.It is the biggest cancer killer of children and adults under 40.
:59:18. > :59:19.That's a very handsome man speaking in parliament!
:59:20. > :59:23.That was you about brain tumour research.
:59:24. > :59:25.Something you feel passionately about.
:59:26. > :59:27.Absolutely, I came to the opening of the brain tumour research Centre
:59:28. > :59:34.And so many people are affected by brain tumours, particularly
:59:35. > :59:39.It is the biggest cancer killer, and yet we spend about 1%
:59:40. > :59:50.On Friday, right across the country, it is Wear A Hat day,
:59:51. > :59:52.celebrating this research, making people aware of what brain
:59:53. > :59:56.tumours are and what we need to do to try to find a cure and much
:59:57. > :00:00.I am really passionate about it and I do everything I can.
:00:01. > :00:03.I have had shops in the High Streets in my towns collecting money
:00:04. > :00:05.and wearing silly hats and raising profile for this research.
:00:06. > :00:08.Tudor, I want to ask you about something else
:00:09. > :00:10.because we saw that ?1 billion to improve the Exeter
:00:11. > :00:15.Is it disappointing for Plymouth when we're waiting for this
:00:16. > :00:34.Yes, they can't seem to take seriously the fact that the 15th
:00:35. > :00:38.largest city in the country has one precarious railway line and we need
:00:39. > :00:41.We are trying our best to get the message across.
:00:42. > :00:44.But the government just doesn't seem to get the urgency of it.
:00:45. > :00:48.We want to do our bit for the UK, we want to transform the economy
:00:49. > :00:51.We cannot do that with the railway line in the state it is.
:00:52. > :01:03.That is the Sunday Politics in the southwest.
:01:04. > :01:06.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:07. > :01:10.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:11. > :01:12.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:13. > :01:24.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:25. > :01:29.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:30. > :01:38.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:39. > :01:43.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:44. > :01:49.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:50. > :01:54.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:55. > :02:01.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:02. > :02:11.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:12. > :02:15.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:16. > :02:20.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:21. > :02:25.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:26. > :02:28.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:29. > :02:36.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:37. > :02:40.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:41. > :02:44.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:45. > :02:49.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:50. > :02:54.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:55. > :02:59.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:00. > :03:02.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:03. > :03:11.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:12. > :03:14.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:15. > :03:21.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:22. > :03:25.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:26. > :03:30.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:31. > :03:36.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:37. > :03:40.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:41. > :03:48.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:49. > :03:52.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:53. > :03:56.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:03:57. > :04:00.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:01. > :04:09.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:10. > :04:14.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:15. > :04:17.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:18. > :04:23.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:24. > :04:28.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:29. > :04:33.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:34. > :04:38.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:39. > :04:43.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:44. > :04:47.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:48. > :04:50.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:51. > :04:56.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:57. > :05:01.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:02. > :05:06.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:07. > :05:11.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:12. > :05:14.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:15. > :05:20.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:21. > :05:27.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:28. > :05:32.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:33. > :05:36.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:37. > :05:41.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:42. > :05:48.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:49. > :05:54.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:55. > :06:00.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:01. > :06:04.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:05. > :06:09.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:10. > :06:15.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:16. > :06:24.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:25. > :06:30.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:31. > :06:35.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:36. > :06:41.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:42. > :06:48.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:49. > :06:55.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:56. > :07:03.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:04. > :07:08.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:09. > :07:12.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:13. > :07:18.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:19. > :07:22.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:23. > :07:26.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:27. > :07:30.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:31. > :07:37.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:38. > :07:40.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:41. > :07:48.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:49. > :07:52.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:53. > :07:57.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:07:58. > :08:01.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:02. > :08:05.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:06. > :08:13.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:14. > :08:17.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:18. > :08:22.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:23. > :08:29.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:30. > :08:33.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:34. > :08:36.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:37. > :08:40.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:41. > :08:45.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:46. > :08:50.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:51. > :08:55.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:56. > :08:59.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:00. > :09:04.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:05. > :09:08.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:09. > :09:13.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:14. > :09:17.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:18. > :09:22.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:23. > :09:26.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:27. > :09:31.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:32. > :09:36.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:37. > :09:39.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:40. > :09:45.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:46. > :09:49.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:50. > :09:53.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:54. > :09:57.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:09:58. > :10:00.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:01. > :10:05.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:06. > :10:11.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:12. > :10:15.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:16. > :10:19.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:20. > :10:23.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:24. > :10:27.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:28. > :10:33.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:34. > :10:38.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:39. > :10:44.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:45. > :10:48.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:49. > :10:53.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:54. > :10:56.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:10:57. > :11:03.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:04. > :11:07.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:08. > :11:12.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:13. > :11:17.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:18. > :11:23.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:24. > :11:26.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:27. > :11:31.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:32. > :11:35.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:36. > :11:40.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:41. > :11:45.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:46. > :11:51.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:52. > :11:55.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:56. > :12:02.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:03. > :12:08.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:09. > :12:13.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:14. > :12:17.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:18. > :12:24.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:25. > :12:30.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:31. > :12:35.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:36. > :12:42.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:43. > :12:46.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:47. > :12:49.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:50. > :12:53.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:54. > :12:57.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:12:58. > :13:01.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:02. > :13:07.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:08. > :13:13.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:14. > :13:16.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:17. > :13:20.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:21. > :13:27.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:28. > :13:31.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:32. > :13:36.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:37. > :13:42.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:43. > :13:47.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:48. > :13:51.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:52. > :14:20.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:21. > :14:23.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:24. > :14:27.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:28. > :14:31.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"